The Realness Hurts

Some Prognosticatin'

2008-07-25T11:42:00.006-05:00

There was a great write up yesterday on SMQ about the 2008 Husker season. He basically says what many Husker fans have been contending to whoever would listen: there's no reason not to expect a fairly significant turnaround for the Huskers in '08 unless you completely base your assessment off of last years season, which is what most people do (except in Notre Dame's case, apparently). The fact remains that by any reasonable standard Nebraska has significantly out-recruited the rest of the North division and that, assuming that talent can be utilized up to its potential, there's no reason the team shouldn't at least challenge for the division. As he points out:

If the offense is merely steady -- it finished the season on a tear with Joe Ganz at quarterback, averaging 53 points over the last three games -- and Pelini’s initial efforts are good enough just to progress back toward the mean defensively -- that is, to split the difference between the best-case scenario of his lone season as coordinator and the worst-case scenario of last year’s collapse -- this is unavoidably one of the most improved teams in the country, and an impending threat to Missouri’s supposed stranglehold on the division.

I've seen a lot of opinions like this from Husker fans, and my own thoughts have certainly drifted in this direction, but seeing it from a national writer with no particular bias towards the Huskers (and one who is generally considered one of the best writers in the blogosphere), I can't help but get even more excited about this teams potential heading into the next season. Of course, I felt that way last year, and look what happened then. Still, something tells me a Pelini lead Huskers won't suffer the same pratfalls that sent last years team on a five game slide mid season, even if we do drop a few against our tougher opponents, and that's good enough for me.

Summer News I Missed

2008-07-17T18:21:00.002-05:00

While not blogging, I missed a few stories that you might care about (except that you've already read about them).

1) Cody Green committed to the huskers. Earlier, I named Cody as the QB I wanted most, and I stand by that. He's got good athleticism, a hell of an arm, and, unlike Scheelhaase, makes more throws than a simple post-pattern. There hasn't been much news on the recruiting front so far, but at least what there is is good news. Also, it's looking very likely that the Huskers will go down to the wire for David Oku. And, they appear to be in a better position than anyone thought for another four star running back, Christine Michael. He's still a long shot, but nobody even thought he was a possibility. That doesn't appear to be the case, and believe me, he'd be quite the catch. Good combo of speed and power. Reminds me a great deal of Mike Rozier. Maybe not as phsyical, but faster.

2) James Conradt pissed off everyone with a hoax. This is a little weird for me. I used to work with James. He was the IT guy at Housing when I started working there. He's a fun guy. Clearly, he was intending to put a scare into a few internet message boarders for a laugh. I have no problem with this. The problem I have, and the one that (shockingly) isn't being brought up, is that a bunch of newspapers ran the story as true. Seriously, why aren't more people pissed about this? The crucified Dan Rather for the exact same thing.

Other things happened, but none worth posting about. That's all for now. Not much, but watcha' going to do.

Two Weeks!

2008-07-16T11:54:00.004-05:00

Two Weeks until fall practice starts and that means its time for this blog to resume regular posting. I know all one of you are super excited. I am too. Bill Callahan?

Not so much.

Dance Party Fridays: Lucky Number Nine

2008-06-14T20:34:00.002-05:00

So, this blog is going to go on hiatus until Fall camp starts in August (since it's been about two weeks with almost no blogging). Check back then.

Until then, I leave you with one final DPF, even though it's Saturday. I'd introduce it, but I wouldn't even no where to start. Just watch.

In Lieu of Actual Content

2008-06-06T15:55:00.004-05:00

Here's a story I mentioned before Spring Practice I had heard. No idea if it's true, but I want it to be so, so badly...

Thought you might find this interesting & enlightening.

The son of a guy I work with here @ P------ is a both a student and an athletic field groundskeeper @ UNL. He had a meeting last week w/ Pelini re spring practice & asked him which side of the practice field he would like the "misting tent" to be stationed. He said Pelini looked puzzled & asked "what the fuck is a misting tent!?!? " The son told Pelini that Callahan set up a misting tent to cool the players on warm days. He said Pelini got a little worked up & said "we just won a national championship with out any fucking misting tent "

No DPF; On the Plus, This Picture

2008-06-06T10:16:00.001-05:00

Courtesy the always wonderful EDSBS, who is much better at this blogging thing than I.

Dance Party Fridays: Praise You

2008-05-30T16:20:00.002-05:00

Most people remember how awesome that video with Christopher Walken dancing is, but I've always been partial to this one as far as Fatboy Slim videos go. Not only are the moves sweet and the people, well, ordinary folks, but they're doing this in the middle of a fucking mall or something. I mean, that's pretty ballsy. If they can do this in front of Gap customers, you can sure as hell do it on a poorly lit dance floor with people to drunk/stoned/themselves inept to notice.

My Apologies

2008-05-29T08:51:00.003-05:00

I apologize for the lack of updates here. It's been a busy week. Also, it's the offseason, so there's really not much going on. I'm going to try and get some more early recruiting posts up here next week, but we'll see if that happens.

Anyway, to tide you over until DPF tomorrow, here's Trev Alberts!

Dance Party Fridays: Bring Da Ruckus

2008-05-23T10:12:00.004-05:00

Okay, I admit, I mostly chose this video as an excuse to get some Wu Tang clan all up in this mutha. Since none of the official Wu Tang videos feature dancing worthy of DPF enshrinement, I had to look deeper. The moves here, while dangerous to execute, will most definitely impress on 90% of all dance floors. As an added bonus, no one will ever fuck with you again. Wu Tang clan ain't nuthin' to fuck with indeed. I leave you in the hands of the RZA, the GZA, Ghostface Killah, Masta Killah, Inspectah Deck, Method Man, Ol' Dirty, Raekwon and U-God (that was totally from memory, by the way).

Talking College Football Playoff Blues

2008-05-21T12:33:00.006-05:00

As is traditional this time of year, much of the internet chatter has moved from post-spring analysis to that endless debate of how best to crown college football's national champion. I might as well throw my hat in the ring since, after all, I don't have anything better to write about. Plus, I happen to fall into that increasingly small set of fans* who oppose a playoff in college football, particularly a large scale, 12-16 team tourney.

*Although I don't know that the majority is as large as is generally assumed; ESPN.com polls that take no account of sample size and the opinions of message board junkies is hardly proof of anything, especially since I'd bet good money that the majority of sports fans over the age of 25 spend as little time on internet message boards as possible. That being said, it's probably safe to assume that at least 50-60% of college football fans favor a playoff.

My reasons for this include most of the typical ones: tradition, exciting regular season, the payoff provided by even the lowest of bowl games. I also think it's pretty presumptuous of the playoff crowd to assume that playoff revenue would equal the current revenue generated by the bowl system (not saying it wouldn't, just saying there's no way to know). Certainly the teams participating in the tourney would likely make more money than they currently would in a BCS system (although remember BCS games pay out to the entire conference as well as the participants). But would, over the course of an entire season, the revenue at least equal out? I'm not so sure. I guarantee you the ratings wouldn't have been nearly as good for the Pitt-WVU game last year had WVU not been playing for a national championship bid. They would have already clinched the Big East spot at that point, and the game wouldn't have mattered. There's a lot of revenue in major regular season games that would need to be made up in a Playoff system. Yes, the Red River Rivalry, Georgia-Florida and Michigan-Ohio State would still draw ratings, but not to the extent they do now. While there will always be national interest in these major rivalry games, limiting their impact to league championship implications instead of BSC/national title implications lessens their intrigue. And while you can scoff at money as a reason, remember that football is the bell cow at most universities, even those that aren't terribly good at it. A big reason for this is the integrity of the regular season, which provides conferences with much larger TV contracts than they generally get with other sports, even College basketball. The bowl game payout also helps. If you take that money away, you have to make it up somewhere or a lot of smaller athletic departments are going to struggle. Again, I'm not saying this money couldn't be made up, but I've seen little concern for this issue among those clamoring for a playoff.

But none of this talk really gets to the point I think most people are missing; the BCS, though it needs some major tweaking, is a better way to crown a champion than a playoff. Let me explain. The current BCS formula is, at best, convoluted. Computer polls are one thing; computer polls that are required to discount margin of victory, as all computer polls in the BCS formula are, is another. The BCS added this criteria to keep teams from running up the score, which is nice, but it doesn't really make for fair assessments. On top of that, you have the polls, which are full of problems, not the least of which is that they generally come out before a single game has been played.

In fact, the polls are generally the biggest problem. Polls are political. They have inherent bias's built into them by their nature. When USC was poised to play OSU in the National Championship game two years ago, Michigan was ranked higher than Florida because it wasn't supposed to really matter and they had just played OSU very close. When USC lost, the two switched positions. The problem I have is not that the two teams switched (which clearly created the right match-up), but that their play on the field had nothing to do with the switch. And this is the problem with polls. They guess at rankings, and then make moves based on how those teams do. There is a sort of reflexive logic to polls; Michigan didn't drop far enough because they lost to the #1 team, even though that team turned out not to be the best. So an embarrassing episode of politicking ensued in which Florida was propelled into the number two spot in the polls simply to avoid a repeat match-up, and as a result the correct team got the national title.

All of this could have been avoided by simply taking the polls out of the equation. Ivan Maisel proposes a committee like the one that sets the NCAA bracket in Basketball. That sounds like a pretty good way to do it, although there could be others. The important thing is to not make any decision on who may or may not play in the game until after the conference championship games have been played, and to have the decision placed in the hands of someone with no vested interest one way or another (meaning no TV personal hungering after higher ratings, no coaches wanting the best for their team, no media members who want to be able to write about an exciting match up, et cetra). This way, you, as much as it's possible to do, take away pre-season bias, and can base you're decision entirely on body of work. Most of the complaints against the BCS are centered around the polls anyway, so why not remove them?

Of course, this leads me to the other major overhaul that needs to be enacted, which is a definitive conference format. Every league needs to play the same kind of schedule, whether that means conference championship or not. League's should have to expand or shrink accordingly. This would help immensely in determining which two teams should play in the NC game because every team will have played the same number of games. And, if every league adopts a championship game, which I think is the way to go, this adds an extra game that could eliminate potential candidates. Would USC have won a Pac 10 championship game in 2003? Who knows. The point is they didn't have to play in one, which is why I still have no problem with Oklahoma and LSU getting the nod; they played more games than USC.

Ultimately, if these criteria are met, I think the BCS would do a much better job of deciding a champion than a playoff would for the simple fact that any champion would have to survive an entire season, not simply get a hot hand around playoff time. Cinderella stories are nice, but they're just that; stories. George Mason was not a better team than many of those they vanquished, they just played well at the right time. They were not a championship caliber team. The Giants this last year is another example. They held the worst regular season record of all playoff teams, but managed to put together their best string of games at the right time and are now the champions of their sport. I'm not trying to take away from what they accomplished, I'm simply pointing out why I don't consider the Giants to be a more legit champ than, say, Florida 2006 (2007 is a bit of an odd year and I hesitate to use it as an example because, let's face it, we probably won't see anything that crazy again). The Giants won on the field but I don't feel they were a better team than the Pats, the Colts, the Cowboys, or the Chargers. Hell, I probably wouldn't even put them above the Packers. They just got the ball to bounce their way at the right times and rode that momentum all the way to the Superbowl. Fucking lame, if you ask me.

Anyway, that's my long, rambling, poorly assembled argument against a playoff and for the BCS. If anyone wants to argue, feel free to post something in the comments. I understand I'm probably in the minority.

Holy Fucksticks!

2008-05-20T10:31:00.003-05:00

There's good high school running backs, and there's great high school running backs. Then there's sophomore's who make your head explode. I give you Lache Seastrunk, who already wins for greatest name, ever. Looks like he'll do a fair bit of winning on the football field, too. He's got Nebraska on his list of schools of interest, but don't get your hopes up. It's looking like Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, and Miami right now. Of course, there's still two years before his letter of intent can be signed, so anything is possible.

For Reals, People

2008-05-16T14:47:00.008-05:00

All of this spygate nonsense needs to stop. This article lays it out very well. And in regards to the Rams walkthrough, you might read this. Sen. Arnold Specter needs to admit he's just a bitter Eagles fan and step down.

The worst is I keep finding myself having to act as a Patriots apologist. To counter act this, let me just say: Fuck the New England Patriots who, regardless of whether or not they cheated, are one of the biggest piece of shit franchises in the NFL (even if they do have Randy Moss). Get a decent fucking color scheme at least, douchebags. I'm down with red, white, and blue, even if it is overdone. But that shiny silver glitter helmet? Doesn't work for Ohio State either, and at least they don't have a retarded fucking logo plastered across the side.

/end rant.

UPDATE: New video information reveals that the Patriots cheating operations may have been more involved than was originally thought.

Dance Party Fridays: Barry Sanders Edition

2008-05-16T12:36:00.002-05:00

More credit to Justin*. These really are the best dance moves ever.

*Not the same Justin from the Chatastic post yesterday.

Chatastic

2008-05-14T15:52:00.001-05:00

2:01pmJustin

your friend [Pete Carroll] also is involved in a terrible scandal!!!!!!!!!!

2:02pmCarlin

True

but he'll overcome that

although he declined my graduation party invite

2:02pmJustin

probably because you only matter

if you declare for the draft early

2:04pmCarlin

right

2:05pmJustin

i dont mean to offend

2:05pmCarlin

well, I'm sorry I ran a poor forty at the combine

2:05pmJustin

you can always use the jerry rice defense

4.7 40

2:06pmCarlin

true

but I also suck at football

2:07pmJustin

i suppose that might factor in somewhere

2:08pmCarlin

if you're being picky, I guess

Recruiting 09: An Early Look Part 2

2008-05-14T11:59:00.005-05:00

There are two highly rated Running backs who seem most likely to wind up in Husker red. Both are quicker, elusive backs which would seem to fit our needs (of the freshman backs coming in this year, Collins Okafor is a bigger north/south type runner and Lester Ward has the frame at 6' 3" to grow into a similar role).

David Oku: This smallish prospect from Texas is a top 100 player regardless of position according to Rivals.com, and I'm not sure I could disagree. He's fast and elusive, great in the open field, with enough strength to slip a tackle or two. Seems to be more of an open space guy. You don't see him take it up the middle between the tackles much (does "take it up the middle between the tackles" sound like a euphemism to anyone else?), which is cause for concern, but that doesn't mean he can't. He's got great quickness, can cut on a dime, and while not quite as Barry Sanders-like as almost-Husker LaMichael James was coming out last year, there is a hint of the former OSU Cowboy in his start-and-stop style. He liked the Huskers early, but interest fell off after the coaching change when an offer didn't come. Turns out this was a simple miscommunication, and he's actually had an offer for a while now. We're on his short list, and I have to think some good production from our running backs will do wonders for our chances.

Brandon Wegher: Although under 6', it would be tough to classify Wegher as particularly small. He's not a big back, by any means, but coming in a 195 lbs. at only 5' 10" is hardly diminutive. He's got a faster forty time than Oku (by about .07 seconds), but generally looks to have greater breakaway speed on film. His cuts aren't as devastating, but don't let that fool you. He can definitely make people miss. Looks a little bit tougher as a runner, occasionally attacking would be tacklers instead of trying to go around them, but mostly he slips through tackles in a way that's reminiscent of one time Husker commit Jonas Gray (who wound up signing with the sinking ship that is Notre Dame football). In other words, he's deceptively shifty, often making slight adjustments to body lean and direction at just the right time to get defenders out of position. This allows him to maintain good speed since he doesn't have the ability to start and stop that Oku does. He plays weaker competition, but his productions is far better (2334 to 1628 yards last year). He plays for Souix Falls and grew up watching the Huskers, so chances aren't bad.

As with the QB's I highlighted last time, you can't really go wrong with either of these guys. If I had to pick, I'd take Wegher, if only because he seems a little smoother, makes it look a little more effortless, and that usually translates well at the next level.

Recruiting 09: An Early Look Part 1

2008-05-13T12:38:00.006-05:00

It's still very early in the process, but a number of fans are growing disgruntled at the Huskers recruiting effort thus far. Nevermind that last years quick start was uncharacteristic (and most of those players wound up signing elsewhere, I might add), or that the 2005 class that ranked number 5 in the nation according to Rivals.com wasn't even close to being filled as late as November. Fans remember how Baker Steinkuhler and Collins Okafor were signed before the long drought that is the Post-Spring-Pre-Fall football wasteland last year and demand similar results. Why don't we have any five stars yet? they cry. Of course the answer is that we don't have any five star instate talent this year like we did with Baker last year. We don't even have any four star talent (although WR Vondrae Tostenson could fit that bill if he rebounds from a horrendous knee injury and gets his academics in order). The fact is that were right about where we can expect to be, with a few instate guys signed and one decent athlete from Texas. Pelini's an unproven head coach, Nebraska's coming off a losing season, and let's face it, Lincoln is not exactly destination number one on most 16/17-year-old's list of places to visit, let alone live for three to five years. There are a lot of highly rated kids that have committed already, but most of them committed to an instate school or to a school they grew up rooting for. There's no reason to panic just yet.

Over the next week or so I'm going to look at some of the highly rated prospects that are uncommitted with the Huskers on their short list. Up first is the Quarterbacks. The new staff has targeted a pretty large number of QB's so far, and they seem to be set on finding their signal caller early. This makes sense. A top QB can attract top players across the board. It's easier to get that stud Wide Receiver, for example, if he knows who's going to be throwing to him. That being said, here's the two four star QB's who seem, at this point, to be not only the highest on this staff's list, but also the most likely to wind up wearing red.

Nathan Scheelhaase: This dual threat QB out of Missouri is rated four stars by Rivals, and with good reason: he's got good speed (4.5) for being 6' 3", 180 pounds, and he has a strong arm. Touch and accuracy are suspect, but that's partly because of the offense they run. From the film I've seen, it appears their receivers run either go routes or crossing routes, and pretty much nothing else. This should be a concern, but is by no means a reason not to go after this kid. He's a pretty solid prospect, with great athleticism. He's probably more of a runner than a passer, ala Pat White, so he may have problems with the complex passing game Watson seems to prefer, but I also have the feeling this staff would be more than willing to tailor their game plan to fit his skill set.

Cody Green: This would be my number one choice of all the QB's offered. He's got great size (6' 4", 220 lbs), great speed (4.6 forty), and a hell of an arm. Like Scheelhaase, Rivals has him rated four stars. Unlike Scheelhaase, he shows consistently good accuracy, dropping the ball into traffic with confidence. The teams he plays for throws a lot more seams and corner routes at their, so you know he's capable of making the difficult throws. He plays faster than his forty time also, and while he doesn't have the shake that Scheelhaase brings to the table, his size allows him to fight for yardage in a way the Missouri product simply can't. Coming from Texas, he's also faced much better competition. His throwing motion is a concern (so is Scheelhaase's), but no more so than it was with Sam Keller. And while Keller's delivery certainly hurt him on a number of throws (particularly out routes), it was only part of the many reasons he was a shitty QB (poor decision making, bad pocket presence and an inability to escape even the slightest pressure are others). Green doesn't possess any of these other problems, at least not from what I've seen. His mobility can more than make up for the shortcomings of his mechanics (much like you saw with Vince Young), but the staff will have to scheme around this (see VY 2003 vs. VY 2004-05). And he makes consistently good decisions, particularly when he's forced out of the pocket and has to either get rid of it or run. Seeing as how I've only seen highlight footage, I might be giving the kid too much credit on this front. But I would still really, really love to land his commitment. He wants to decide sooner rather than later, so here's hoping we can get him up for a visit in the next month or so. Oh, and did I mention? He plans to graduate in December, meaning he'd be here for spring ball.

Those are the two QB's I see as likely candidates. There are many others we've offered, but these are the only two highly rated prospects I think we have a shot at. We might get neither, and that wouldn't be the end of the world. But I hope we can land at least one of these guys, as they both bring an element to our offense we haven't seen since the Solich days.

Running Backs coming up hopefully tomorrow, although don't be surprised if I don't get around to it until Thursday.

Dance Party Fridays: What the Shit

2008-05-09T15:21:00.001-05:00

So, upon further review, the video I was going to post was not as cool as I remembered. So, instead watch this guy do things nobody should be able to do.

Former Players

2008-05-08T12:31:00.001-05:00

Always pop up here and there if your the fan of a team with as much exposure as Nebraska. Here's the latest former Husker to make waves in his community:

Thank God for the internet.

Your Attention Please

2008-05-08T09:25:00.002-05:00

I would like to direct you to this article on Bo Ruud's performance thus far at the Patriots Mini Camp. I'm not a Patriots fan. But this line sums up the Nebraska football fandom better than any one liner I've heard:

To understand how deeply the program is woven into the state's fabric, imagine that the Patriots, Celtics, and Bruins didn't exist. Then imagine that the Red Sox only play 7 games a year at Fenway.

That's all I got. DPF's up tomorrow, and my friend Justin directed me to a good one.

Post Spring Predictions

2008-05-05T15:28:00.005-05:00

As promised. I don't know how much anyone outside of the actual team can say about improvement, especially someone with no background in football besides being fan, but I'm going to give it a shot and revise my predictions a little based on what we saw in Spring Practice.

Aug. 30 - Western Michigan (5/7): Western Michigan has, perhaps, a little by way of talent, at least if you listen to the internet scuttlebutt. But they're also Western Michigan, a fact which can't be overlooked here. I don't expect much of a game here.

Old: 49-21. Revised: 56-10. W

Sept. 06 - San Jose State (5/7): Another bad-even-by-mid-major-standards football team.

Old: 56-10. Revised: 52-3. W

Sept. 13 - New Mexico State (4-9): As I said before, the Aggies are at the bottom of the barrel by anyone's standards. There are probably at least a couple of I-AA teams that would beat them more times out of ten than not. This is not a good football team. Not at all.

Old: 70-3. Revised: Same. W

Sept. 27 - Virginia Tech (11-3): Okay, finally a game worth previewing. Virginia Tech, since my last predictions, has lost their most productive RB in Brandon Ore (and he wasn't very productive). They've also had significant injuries to the two backs behind him. While both will probably play quite a bit next season, there's a good chance neither will be 100% come September. Even if that's not the case, the VT offense is nothing to write home about and hasn't been since the brothers Vick were being relatively awesome football players in between their bouts of criminal activity. Their defense is stout, but they lost three of their best players and while the backups are good, they're unproven. In other words, I feel more strongly about a win here than I did back in February.

Old: 28-24. Revised: 28-17. W

Oct. 4 - Missouri (12-2): I still think this is a loss, but I'm not as sure anymore, and that's because of the fact that almost every misdirection play was stopped for minimum gain in the Spring Game. Yes, it's the Spring Game, but last year anytime a team wanted an easy fifteen yards, all they had to do is fake a reverse or run the zone read option. It appears, for now, that won't be the case next year. Mizzou killed us with lots of speed and misdirection. I don't think they have quite the same advantage in the speed department, and with Joe Ganz calling the shots instead of how-many-times-can-I-fuck-up-third-and-short Sam Keller, I think there's a good chance we put up enough point to win. I'm still calling it a loss, though.

Old: 28-35. Revised 34-35. L

Oct. 11 - Texas Tech (9-4): Tech is kind of hard to figure out. Their defense did less bad than it seemed like it did, at least according to the stat books. Their offense was pretty great, and they have the best receiver I've seen since Randy Moss (actually, that's probably not true, but I really wanted to use my Randy Moss label again; it's been so long). There's no reason we can't win this game, other than the fact that their's no reason we shouldn't lose it. We'll be hard pressed to keep Tech under 40 points. I wonder how many they'll hold us to? But, for shits and giggles, I'll say we win this one.

Old: 38-45. Revised: 56-49. W

Oct. 18 - Iowa State (3-9): Iowa State is a black-hole of suck that's only going to get worse before it gets better. I don't expect much of anything from them no matter how well they played against OU. They will probably be lucky to score more than 100 points all season with the offense they have coming back.

Old: 52-0. Revised: Same. W

Oct 25. - Baylor (3-9): Hahahahahahaha!

Hahahahahahahahahaha!

Ha!

Baylor.

Old: 38-10. Revised: 49-3. W

Nov. 1 - Oklahoma (11-3): Hahahahahahahahaha!

Nebraska.

Old: 21-49. Revised: 17-38. L

Nov. 8 - Kansas (12-1): Kansas is going to suck a big one this year. That's my prediction. They, collectively, are going to get a giant ******, put it in their mouths, and suck it. I mean this literally. It will happen, and Magino will declare "I've had better." Referring to the meal, which he will find smallish and unsatisfying.

Also, they will lose more football games than people are expecting because once they realize that last year was the fluke everyone said it was (right around the Colorado game, I'd guess), they will collectively go into the fetal position for the rest of the season. For other examples of this phenomena, see: Nebraska, 2007.

Old: 35-21. Revised: 35-14. W

Nov. 15 - Kansas State (5-7): I still think we're going 8-4 next year, which means I need another loss after bumping Tech up to a win. I don't necessarily believe we'll lose to KSU, but I also didn't think we'd lose to KU last year, so that shows what I know.

Old: 56-17. Revised: 21-24. L

Nov. 28 - Colorado (6-7): At this point, we're out of contention for the north and playing for, at best, the Alamo Bowl, and I think this team gives up on itself a little bit. Colorado is just playing for a bowl, any bowl, and manage to beat us in the end. Those motherfuckers.

Old: 17-21. Revised: 21-28 L

There. That's my new predictions. Like I said, I still us at 8-4 next year. I just can't see us going 9-3, and there's a real possibility we go 7-5 again, but I think 8-4 sounds about right.

Dance Party Fridays: Dance Party Friday

2008-05-02T12:04:00.004-05:00

Sorry about the lack of updates, but sometimes finals take priority over blogging, especially when you're graduating in a week.

This particular Dance Party Friday comes to us from WKRC-TV in Cincinnati, who apparently has been doing this for a while. I don't want to take away its thunder with too many words, so let's just say: it's DPF time, motherfucker!

Football to return next week, I promise (as if anyone believes my promises at this point).

Post Spring Grades

2008-04-28T12:22:00.005-05:00

Now that the draft is over and I no longer have Adam doing my job for me, it's time to talk about Spring practice. I had a bunch of previews heading into the Spring (which you can view here, here, here, here, and here), and for the most part they played out, but there were some surprises. Over the next week, I want to look at what, if anything, was learned during Spring practice, and then make some revisions to my predictions here.

First of all, let's talk grades, as in completely useless, generalized measures of supposed competence. Grades are generally pretty stupid and tell us little, which of course means I'm all about them. Here's my probably inaccurate spring grades by position:

Quarterback: A

Joe Ganz looks ready to pick up right where he left off in 2007, although hopefully he won't be throwing 50 passes a game to make up for our anemic defense. Patrick Witt and Zach Lee look like competent backups, and Cody Spano, though he'll probably redshirt, looked remarkably poised in the Spring Game for someone who probably attended prom recently (Jim Ebke isn't included because he has to sit out a year). The only thing keeping this grade from being an A+? My conviction that Ganz will only ever be a good game manager and not a game changer. That and god help us if Beau Davis ever has to start under center.

Running Back: A+

Marlon Lucky is the Big XII's leading returning rusher. He's been inconsistent, but when he plays with passion he's one of the best backs in the country. I'm betting Pelini will be able to get that kind of passion out of him, but we'll see. He's also our best receiver, but more on that later. If he doesn't live up to his potential, Roy Helu Jr. looks more than capable of stepping up as an every down back. Meanwhile Big Q is the most physical runners we've had since the option days, and he figures to be a big factor in the run game next year if (and probably if not) he can shore up his fumbling problems. Plus, Marcus Mendoza looks poised to be exactly the kind of Jeremy Maclin type I pegged him as. He won't get you the tough yards on the goal line, but get him into open space and watch out. This might be a little high of a grade, but I really, really like this group.

Wide Receiver/Tight End: B-

And that's being generous. Nate Swift and Todd Peterson are solid but not game breakers (though look for Swift to get back to his 2005 form). There's a lot of potential with the youngsters here, but none of them have really distinguished themselves. I would expect to see a lot of receivers get touches this next year. I will say that in pre-game warm ups at the Red/White scrimmage, Niles Paul looked really good, but he didn't do much in the game, possibly because Murillo was covering him. If I had to pick who will round out the top five receivers (not counting running backs) next year besides Peterson and Swift, I'd go with Meno Holt, Chris Brooks, and Curenski Gilleylen, although the latter's got to cut back on his drops. Given the lack of experience here and our wealth at Running Back, expect to see Lucky and Mendoza spend considerable amounts of time in the slot. Also, still no Tight End to speak of, although I do expect McNeil to put up some yards this year.

Offensive Line: B+

I think people are over-hyping this unit, but it should still be strong. Lydon Murtha has all-conference potential though he has yet to realize it, and Javario Burkes is probably our best lineman since Richie Incognito got himself very candidly kicked off the team. But our Guards lacked physicality last year, shocking considering Slauson's harbinger-of-doom-like appearance, and center's been nothing special since Kurt Mann got mono. There's a lot of depth, but beyond the two tackles, no stars (although I expect Slauson to step his game up big time next year).

Defensive Line: C-

That might be under rating their Spring performance, but call me weary to read too munch into any of their successes after last years debacle. The ends looks good, and I fully expect Barry Turner to remind everyone why he was a freshman All-American back in the day, but the interior line is still sub-par. Kevin Dixon looked good, and if he can pair up with Ndamukong Suh (who missed Spring with a knee injury) this could improve, but I'm not holding my breath. It should be a better line, but don't expect '97 or anything.

Linebackers: D+

Potential but not much more. Dillard is solid but not spectacular, and while Cody Glenn's successful position switch and Tyler Wortman's sudden aptitude make for nice stories, they could be further proof that this unit isn't quite ready for prime time. I expect them to be better come fall, but I doubt they'll be great.

Secondary: A-

This unit looks very good, and the only reason the grade isn't higher is because my evaluation comes mostly from the spring game in which they were going up against the aforementioned sub-par receiving core. Armando Murillo is probably the best corner we've had since Fabian Washington (and maybe better than him), and he looks like he'll finally be able to show his skill set under a competent defensive scheme. Across from him, Anthony West and Prince Amukamara played well, and that's without Anthony Blue being in the mix, who looked good as a trued freshman last year. Ricky T and Larry Asante might be the hardest hitting safety duo in the Big XII next year, and Matt O'Hanlon looks like a good back up. Major Culbert looked good also, as did, surprisingly, Austin Cassidy, the walk-on redshirt freshman from Lincoln Southwest.

Special Teams: B

Tough to get a read on the return game since they didn't run any live returns, so this grade is based off an A+ kicking game a big fat question mark when it comes to returns. Adi should still be good for at least 5 out of 10 kickoffs counting for touchbacks, while Alex Henery showed a stronger leg than anyone anticipated to go with his stunning accuracy. Dan Tichtner looks poised to carry on the tradition of great punters we've had the last few years (Kyle Larson, Sam Koch), averaging over 45 yards a punt during the Spring game.

Tomorrow I'll look at who I think is going to have a big year next year.

Draft Preview, The Final Chapter

2008-04-25T16:55:00.003-05:00

Adam comes through in the end, like we all knew he would.

* * *

NFL Draft Preview Part V – Mock Draft

And so it’s come to this.

Mock drafts may be the lowest form of human communication. They are meaningless in almost every single way. There is certainly something to be said for simulations when it comes to strategy but one key element needs to be a constant in order for the simulation to hold value: one player has to be real. If the military wants to see how its own troops would react to a Soviet Invasion, there’s some logic into holding a simulation.*

*Or they could just watch Red Dawn.

It might let them find out a little about how the USSR might function by turning the board around, but mostly it will teach them lessons about how they would react to such a scenario. The important thing is that everyone is aware they are playing with a loaded deck and not to come away thinking, “Well, that was easy.”

Mock drafts, on the other hand, are done by individuals who have no stake in the game and therefore have nothing to learn. Without self interest, an expert can arrange their board in such a way as to make the dominoes fall smoothly so that every team gets what they want or they can insert unlikely and illogical variables to cause chaos. In either case, what they can’t do is learn something from the game. It doesn’t test their commitment to their draftboard or put them in uncomfortable situations. All it does is let them play a little game and pretend they know (or care) what will happen if Team A is unable to draft Player X.

It’s completely stupid and futile. So let’s get started.

1 – Miami Dolphins: Jake Long, OT, Michigan

Yes, this was the right call. You know how I feel. There’s really nothing else to say. So how are you doing?

2 – St. Louis Rams: Chris Long, DE, Virginia

Apparently the Saints are offering up Jamaal Brown and the number 10 pick for this spot. If that’s true, that’s just crazy talk. Remember when I said that the wheels might be coming off the Sean Payton era? Um, if that trade goes down, consider the wheels official off. If you trade one of the better left tackles in the league and then number 10 pick in a draft to take a DT, you’re out of your mind.*

*Of course, they want Dorsey because he went to LSU and he’d be a boon to ticket sales.

As for the Rams, they really don’t need a DT so while they may talk a big game about Dorsey, it wouldn’t be smart to pick him up while ignoring the pass rush. They’ll take Howie’s kid, thus starting off the chain of events that will eventually lead to Firestorm II and then the apocalypse.

3 – Atlanta Falcons: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

Logic wins out and they don’t force the hopes of Georgia onto the skinny, freckled shoulders of Matt Ryan.

4 – Oakland Raiders: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St.

Apparently Al Davis loves Darren McFadden, but I think he’s probably just as enamored with the physical specimen that is Vernon Gholston. As Oakland has clearly been spending a ton of money to make one last run before big Al’s death—with, um, a young Jamarcus Russell at QB*—I think they’ll do the smart thing and roll the dice with Vernon.

*At least they aren’t dumb enough to give up everything for one player when they have Tavaris Jackson at QB. Yes, I’m looking at you Minnesota.

5 – Kansas City Chiefs: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

He he. I love this draft scenario because the Chiefs are suddenly faced with a scenario where they have to either reach for an OT or acknowledge the fact that Brodie Croyle is awful.*

*Oh, and, you know, this pick saves the GM’s job for another year. Mark my words: if they don’t take Ryan, both Peterson and Edwards get fired before the next draft.

Oh, and they also might trade down to someone like the Saints who are now after Ellis.

6 – New York Jets: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

I look forward to watching him get taken down by arm tackles.

7 – New England Patriots: Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida

Nobody is talking about this pick which is why it will happen. Let’s look at the evidence:

1) Bill Belichick is friends with Urban Meyer and likes to draft Florida guys

2) Bill Parcells loves Derrick Harvey and Parcells and Belichick love the same players

That’s it. That’s enough.

8 – Baltimore Ravens: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State

This is a bit of a worst case scenario for Baltimore. They might take Ellis but would more likely trade to the Saints. Clady makes the most since whether it is them or someone else picking here.

9 – Cincinnati Bengals: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

The Bengals get lucky.

10 – New Orleans Saints: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

They settle for McKelvin or, more likely, they move up and someone else grabs the board’s top corner here.

11 – Buffalo Bills: Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan St

Good luck with that. By the way, do you know Thomas almost went to K-State out of community college? If he had, he probably would be drafted sometime around round 5. But, seriously though, good luck.

12 – Denver Broncos: Branden Albert, OT, Virginia

This seems about right.

13 – Carolina Panthers: Keith Rivers, LB, USC

A surprise pick, but nobody else here fills a need and has value. They might be tempted by a RB or look to trade down so they can grab a QB.

14 – Chicago Bears: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

Remember how everyone thought Cedric Benson was going to be horrible and then he cried at the draft and everyone thought he was going to be horrible and then he played and everyone thought he was horrible and then he….

You get the idea.

15 – Detroit Lions: Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee

Just fits the defense too well to ignore. They’d love Harvey, but he’s long gone and no RBs present value. This really does seem like the right pick. Don’t mess this up, Millen.

16 – Arizona Cardinals: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida

Best corner available.

17 – Kansas City Chiefs: Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

Fresh off saving Carl Peterson’s job, the Chiefs find themselves lost at 17 and unprepared to have both Chris Williams and Otah on the board. Having done their homework on Otah but not Williams, they panic and take the devil/player they know. Oops.

Let’s speed this up.

18 – Houston Texans: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt

Hooray!

19 – Philadelphia Eagles: Desean Jackson, WR, Cal

This probably won’t turn out well. I mean, he’s tiny, is apparently a head case, and doesn’t work hard. Otherwise he’s going to be fantastic.

20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St.

Even I don’t care who they pick.

21 – Washington Redskins: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

Word is they love him which can’t be said by any other team, his coaches at Oklahoma, and presumably his parents.

22 – Dallas Cowboys: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

Hey, Felix Jones, do you need any help getting that knife out of your back?

23 – Pittsburgh Steelers: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina

Think of senior years like contract years once a player reaches the big leagues. If a player is mediocre and disinterested for 3 years and then suddenly comes alive when a million dollar signing bonus is on the line, you probably want to at least think about why that might be.

Not that that applies here or anything. Just saying.

24 – Tennessee Titans: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

You could say that it makes no sense to draft a receiver because he knew your QB in college, but I’m one who thinks it’s probably the right move.

25 – Seattle Seahawks: Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue

I like him again.

26 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Philip Merling, DE, Clemson

This pick will actually be going in a trade to the Dolphins (I hope). Okay, not actually as much as fantastically. That doesn’t make sense, but neither does drafting a guy with a sports hernia.

Seriously though, there’s a very good chance he goes higher than this and Jacksonville looks around and realizes there’s nobody they want at this pick.

27 – San Diego Chargers: Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

Ditto. I’d say there is a less than 10 percent chance San Diego is the team making this selection. If they do, they’ll look for a backup running back. Must be nice.

28 – Dallas Cowboys: James Hardy, WR, Indiana

Same. In fact, just know that 25-28 are the picks most likely to result in trades from teams looking to move up for QBs.*

*For the record: I no longer like Dustin Keller.

29 – San Francisco 49ers: Quentin Groves, LB, Auburn

You’re on to me. I’m only saying they’ll take him so as not to jinx Groves’s chances of falling to the Dolphins.

30 – Green Bay Packers: Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas

They’ll take the best available or corner or, possibly, a QB. This team has shockingly good depth. Possibly the deepest team in the league behind San Diego.

31 – New England Patriots: Forfeited

I love typing that.

32 – New York Giants: Dan Conner, LB, Penn St.

I know the popular logic has Conner falling and the Giants looking for a safety here, but there just isn’t one in the draft worth taking at this point and that Giants GM is a sharp guy.

And that’s your first round. The Dolphins catch a break by essentially getting a first round pick at the top of the second where, if things play out the way they have above, they’ll probably take a CB like Antoine Cason or Brandon Flowers. There’s also talk of a QB, but count me among those who thinks that’s just talk.

Thanks to Carlin for letting me post my thoughts about the draft. Feel free to let me know how wrong I was about everything.

* * *

Thank you, Adam, for writing a much better, more comprehensive draft analysis than I could hope for. Anytime you want to write more for the Realness Hurts, you're more than welcome.

Draft Preview Part....

2008-04-25T16:04:00.002-05:00

I don't know if Adam's going to get me his mock or not, but this post at deadspin is really all the draft preview you need. Of the many choices lines, this one pretty much sums up what that link contains:

So if you don't like the NFL Draft, and if you just can't possibly fathom how the unwashed masses could enjoy such a thing, please consider yourself cordially invited to stick your scrotum in a fucking Cuisinart.

If that doesn't make you want to read the whole thing (it warrants the double link), there's no help for you.

Dance Party Fridays: Stand Up

2008-04-25T12:27:00.004-05:00

So there's been some kind of purge of illegal Michael Jackson youtube videos, apparently, and so the month of Michael comes to a sudden and tragic end. I was going to post Thriller, but now that will never happen (you can still watch it here).

Instead, I bring you a tribute to the ubiquitous "next big dance move," from down in the dirty dirty, Ludacris's impeccably executed "Stand Up." Not a whole lot of actual dancing going on, but good advice concerning timeliness and ones clothing in abundance. Enjoy.

Presumably more draft stuff to come from Adam, although I make no promises since, you know, I don't write the stuff.