Allies Financial Services

A Study from 9 Lovers for Year '09

2010-01-04T11:34:00.001+05:30

Hello Friends,

Year ’09 gone by
*Mkts up 81% only, 1 of the Best in 18 years,
*Rupee close at 46.53 on 31/12/2009,
*Fii invested only 80,505 Crores, New Fii registered 108,
*Totat Fii’s 1710 with 477 sub accounts,
*Out of Total Fii’s 576 are from U.S only,
*Average daily Tunover in Derivatives since last 9 months was 72,000 Crores only,
*Bse Mid Cap Index up 108% while Small Cap Index up 126%, Metal index up 234% only,
*Reforms were made to Start Mkts at 9.00 Am for 6.30 hours of Long Trading,
*Nasdaq index rose by 45% only.

IF U HAVE MORE INPUTS ON THIS THEN PLS SEND US ON AlliesFin@gmail.com so we can update on this web.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Few Trading Calls for Year End

2009-12-29T06:03:00.000+05:30

Hello Friends,
Updating few trading calls along with charts for Year end (2-3 days views).
Please read Disclaimer & Disclosure on http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/
Charts are for Educational purpose only.

Bank Nifty :

Reliance inds :

Ongc :

Ashok Leyland :

Bartronics :

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 14 December 2009

2009-12-14T11:34:00.002+05:30

Hello Friends,

Nifty Daily Charts :

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Wave November 2009 : CITI

2009-11-24T12:12:00.002+05:30

Next Wave November 2009

How will inter-market distortions be resolved?

.Major market timbre — The tide that has prevailed since March—low interest
rates leading to dollar weakness and euro strength, resulting in rebounds for
equities and commodities—is beginning to turn. The euro/dollar rate looks to
have peaked and equities could be entering a correction phase globally. Gold,
on the other hand, is likely to keep rising. Our focus is on what happens to
long-term yields in the US.

. Japanese equities — TOPIX broke below 867 (10/5), confirming to our eyes
that it has embarked on a near-term second leg corrective wave. If the Nikkei
breaks below 9,400, it could ease back to 8,980 or 8,450 before the year is out.
Jasdaq and other small-cap markets are also in a corrective phase but nearterm
bottoms may be close at hand.

. Overseas equities — Shanghai peaked in August, South Korea in September,
and Australia and the SOX in October. We sense the DJIA and Hang Seng may
also peak in November and join the global correction.

. Interest rates — If the US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 3.562% (10/26),
we think it could climb to 3.73% or 4.25%. On the other hand, the JGB yield
could be capped at 1.53%, with the downtrend continuing through next spring.

. Forex — We are set to move from dollar weakness to yen strength. The
euro/dollar rate hit a near-term peak at $1.5064 (10/26) and could fall back to
$1.42. We see the dollar falling through ¥87.01 (1/21) sooner or later and
sliding down to ¥82.30 or ¥80 by next spring. We caution on intensifying
corrections for other yen pairs, such as the euro/yen.

. Commodities — Gains for gold may continue. We think it could rose to $1,190 or
$1,300 before the end of the year. On the other hand, WTI crude could peak at
$85 and LME copper at $6,800 and they could then be subjected to big
shakedowns.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 20 November 2009

2009-11-20T08:37:00.001+05:30

Hello Friends,

After long time we are updating Charts giving Technical REASONS that why we were talking about Distribution in Markets since 2-3 Days & we saw big sell off yesterday.

We believe that in this WORLD everything Happens for a Reason, the matter is you just need to identify it ,

Sensex Chart :

Nifty Chart :

Bank Nifty Chart :

Charts Analysed by AXIT D SHAH (m) +919820191219 for Educational purpose only,
Read Disclosure & Disclaimer on this web http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Provisional Fund flow Figures Rupees Crores for 19 November 2009 :

Fii -459
Dii +117
Fii (derivatives) -500
Index Futures -738
Index Options +411
Stock Futures -171
Stock Options -2
Fii OI 77k Crores only.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 05 November 2009

2009-11-05T08:37:00.000+05:30

Hello Friends,

Read Market Views for today on this link

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
(m)+919820191219
www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.com

Market Views for 30 October 2009

2009-10-30T08:46:00.002+05:30

Hello Friends,

Click on this link to read the market views for today

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 29 October 2009

2009-10-29T08:10:00.002+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels

Close : 4826

Supports : 4795 / 4777 / 4747

Resistances : 4848 / 4868 / 4888

Yesterday Nifty final support for the day was 4777 & made low of 4784 & bounced back sharply. These range 4747 - 4777 are very important support area in the near & may act as Trend Reversal levels. But if markets close below these then all such views are negated.

Also the Global Markets have started correcting after they saw the fall into Indian markets & most of the world markets are trading around 50 Dma ( 50 Days Moving Average ). Such Averages provides good supports to the markets in near term but the sentiments are -ve so as the fall.

Around 4747-4777 Nifty may be competing around 10% correction from recent top in just few days time. The Corresponding levels in Sensex can be around 16000 levels.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 28 October 2009 :

Fii -724

Dii +896

Fii (derivatives) +373

Index Futures +119

Index Options +190

Stock Futures +62

Stock Options +2

Fii OI 76k Crores only.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com
Email Group : Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 28 October 2009

2009-10-28T08:10:00.001+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e Intraday levels :

Close : 4847
Supports : 4818 / 4797 / 4777
Resistances : 4888 / 4918 / 4949

A Sharp profit booking was seen in markets once Nifty broke 4950 levels with high volumes, a 100 to 125 points of Nifty sheded after these breakdown & managed to close at 4847.

Reality / Metals / Banking were the Top loosers among sectors. Yesterday RBI came out with Credit Policy & Repo Rate / Reverse Repo & CRR were unchanged while hiked SLR limit from 24% to 25%, the bankers welcomed the Credit policy but Bank Nifty was hammered from 9100 to 8700 & sheded only 400 points after the Credit Policy.

Nifty is currently testing 50 days DMA which is currently around 4830-4850 levels, this can act as mild support for the markets but the sentiments are -ve & markets may test lower supports as updated above. Also as updated earlier people & analyst were expecting the correction in markets & the same has happened. Nifty is down by 300-350 points from recent high & if sheds more 50-75 points then Nifty will complete correction by 10% in fast & furious way.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 27 October 2009 :

Fii-549
Dii+142
Fii(deri)-1597
Idx Fut-1018
Idx Opt+189
Stk Fut-739
Stk Opt-26
Fii OI 76k.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India

Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com
Email Group : Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 26 October 2009

2009-10-26T08:10:00.000+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels :
Close 4997
Supports 4977 / 4949 / 4919
Resistances 5015 / 5050 / 5085

Markets may find supports at lower levels & may catch up other Asian markets. Problems starts for Bulls once closes below final support levels as updated above.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 23 October 2009 :

Fii -479
Dii +173
Fii (derivatives) -75
Index Futures +300
Index Options -626
Stock Futures +141
Stock Options +112
Fii OI 75k Crores only.

News:

* Markets may soon start from 9 Am to 5 Pm, along with Currency Markets.
* 3G Auction may start on 14 January 2010.
* Earnings catching up as Results season in on.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 22 October 2009

2009-10-22T08:10:00.000+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels :
Close 5068
Supports : 5050 / 5025 / 4995
Resistances : 5085 / 5115 / 5151

After many days markets have taken a breather & have closed below 5100 levels. 5111-5151 acting as stiff resistance area as markets are unable to close above these. Also some selling figures are being reported from Fii after many days ?
So is this the warning bell for Bulls or the trend will change & again markets to test New highs ?

Sentimentally many people are away from the markets with lots of Cash in hand & also many analyst are avoiding buying aggressively due to highly overbought positions or High valuations. Last many days it was mainly the Fii who were buying & buying in the markets & driving the markets higher.

Techincally important supports are placed at 16800 & 5000 levels for Sensex & Nifty respectively. Close below this levels for 2 days may buck the uptrend in short term & we may see more selling pressure & fresh short positions build up in markets. Higher side if Nifty closes above 5151 & 17300 then we may see markets making new highs & test 5300/5400 - 17800/18000 on Nifty & Sensex respectively.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 21 October 2009 :

Fii -512
Dii -292
Fii (derivatives) -1141
Index Futures -747
Index Options -302
Stock Futures -74
Stock Options -18
Fii OI 75k Crores only.

NEWS:

* Ril~Rnrl case to have everyday hearing untill they may find some Solution.

* Today Assembly Election Results will be out for Maharahstra, Haryana & Himachal Pradesh.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 21 October 2009

2009-10-21T08:10:00.000+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels :
Close 5114
Supports : 5095 / 5075 / 5050
Resistances : 5135 / 5151 / 5177

Markets area gain consolidating in Narrow range of 50 points. Need to break either side for another big moves for 2-5%.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 20 October 2009:

Fii+276
Dii-141
Fii(deri)-172
Idx Fut-363
Idx Opt+94
Stk Fut+103
Stk Opt+6
Fii OI 74k

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 16 October 2009

2009-10-16T08:55:00.002+05:30

Hello Friends,

Click on this link to check out Nifty Intraday levels & Provisional Fii Nos.

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Web : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 15 October 2009

2009-10-15T08:10:00.002+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels :
Close : 5118
Supports : 5095 / 5075 / 5050
Resistances : 5151 / 5171 / 5191

As updated in our previous Newsletters that once Nifty closes above 5015 levels we may see fresh buying in markets & since last 2 days we are witnessing the same thing as once 5015 was crossed on daily charts we saw fresh buying as well as huge short covering.

2 day markets may test higher resistance levels as Global markets are supportive like Dow crossed & closed above 10000 mark, Hangsang Crossing 22000 mark & so on. So now will Sensex cross 18000 mark by Diwali ??? At 17200 markets are just 4000 points away from life highs.

Sector specific moves are seen in markets like Auto / Banking / Capital Goods / Metals / Reality stocks are on move while Telecom are laggards due to very bad sentiments. As told earlier there would be re-rating in many sectors / stocks after results & such re-rating would make the PE more comfortable & we may see some rally in the markets due to such re-rating.

Re/$ update : Re close to hit 46 mark as this was our 1st target, read more on our website www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.com ,

Stocks in News 4 Intraday : Reliance inds, Hdil, Jm Fin, Phoenix Mills, Elecon Engg, Mnm, Tatamotors , Sbi, Hdfc Bank, Lnt , Jindal Steel & Power & so on....

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 14 October 2009 :

Fii +1444
Dii -192
Fii(derivatives) +289
Index Futures +339
Index Options +314
Stock Futures -363
Stock Options -1
Fii OI 71k Crores only.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 12 October 2009

2009-10-12T08:10:00.000+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e Intraday levels :
Close : 4945
Supports : 4919 / 4888 / 4848
Resistances : 4977 / 4994 / 5015

Nifty after making high of yearly high 5111 profit booking was seen at higher session since then. After that Nifty faced resistance around 5080-5090 levels & 2 to 3 attempts were made to cross the same but unable to do it.

At these levels markets are more effected to bad sentiments among the people, the Analyst’s, the Funda Guys & so on. Such sentimental has been seen on Charts as lack of volumes at higher levels & also they need some correction to make markets healthier.

Earnings season have started & as told earlier that there would be revision in EPS, this would make the P/E comfortable for Fundamentalist & they would re-rate the stock/sector from overvalued to fairly valued. After sound results from Infosys & Bonus issue from RIL re-rating has started at desk of Funda guys & so called Analyst’s.

After break down in Telecom stocks due to shifting of calculation of revenues from Per min to Per second pulse, the index have been broken down due to this effect as index based Telecom stocks like Bharti / Idea / Rcom are deeply hammered. Also break down has been seen in auto sector, banking & I.T index, these are heavy weights for Nifty & once all these breaks there are less chance for Nifty to move up.

Nifty have very imp supports around 4888-4909 levels which are recent lows & from where the indices made new highs. Again markets are here to test these levels, so a close eye to be kept on these levels on closing basis then we may see more profit booking & also invites some fresh short positions. This views are only valid if markets close below 4888 with good margin & volumes.

Another view : if markets do not break 4888-4909 levels & bounces back from current levels then it may test higher levels of 4977 / 4994 & fresh buying will only be seen if Nifty closes above 5015.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 09 October 2009

Fii -44
Dii +87
Fii ( derivatives ) -1612
Index Futures -630
Index Options -347
Stock Futures -600
Stock Options -35

News :

· Indiabulls power ipo opens 12 October 2009.

· RIL-RNRL Case update : From the statements we hear from both the parties we see some out of Court settlement as its Family dispute & nothing to do with Shareholders or company. If this happens then we may good move up in both the stocks & change the sentiments in markets.

· Tomorrow Tuesday, 13 October 2009, Trading holiday in markets on a/c of Assembly election in Maharashtra.

· Coming Saturday, 17 October 2009, Muhurat Trading in evening at 6.15 pm.
TEAM ALLIES FINANCIAL SERVICES WISHES A VERY HAPPY DIWALI IN ADVANCE TO ALL OUR CLIENTS / READERS / VISITORS TO OUR WEB www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Contact Us :

2009-10-12T07:20:00.005+05:30

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
(M) : +91 (0) 9820 191219
Email : AlliesFin9@gmail.com
Yahoo Id : AlliesFin9@yahoo.com
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Newsletters : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/ALLIESFIN

Market Views for 09 Oct 2009

2009-10-09T07:20:00.001+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intraday levels :
Close 5002
Supports 4977 / 4949 / 4919
Resistances 5020 / 5050 / 5080

After RIL bonus announcement people expected the stock to open up by Rs 150-200 only but that was not the same as the stock opened only Rs 100 & the punters silently offloaded the stock while the RIL FAV's Public bought the same at higher levels as if they were not going to get the stock tomorrow. Anyways markets opened higher due to RIL gap up open but did not sustain at higher levels due to selling pressure in Telecom stocks & also in I.T stocks due to $ depreciation, this we are updating since last many days in our articles.

Also Re/$ have come very to achieve 1st TG of 46, Rupee have been appreciated from 48.25 to 46 levels in very short span of time so we expect that it will cool off in near days but again may head towards 44-45 levels. We expected from such Rupee appreciation that Fii may sell some goods in markets, Gold / Silver / Crude will move to higher levels in Dollar $ terms & Indian I.T industry & even Indian exporters will bear some pain & Fortunately the same happened. Gold touching new life time highs, many Indian I.T stocks are bleeding & so on.
Hope readers / visitors to our web www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.com benefitted from such views & opinions.

Regarding markets we are in a range of 4900 - 5100, untill we break this range we may see volatile moves in this range as we are witnessing since last many days. Also at this levels there is too much pessimism among people due to high levels of markets, higher PE, low EPS, Promoters encashing through QIP / IPO / FCCB & so on. Also many Analyst are not comfortable with the markets for the same reasons, does this mean that People thinking & Analyst thinking is one & the same now ????? This shows that Indian people have become smarter from such of bad experiences & now dont want to repeat the same. This is +ve signs.

Nifty may see fresh buying only on closing above 5100 as mentioned earlier untill then Stock / sector specific moves will help to manage the Indices like when Telecom / I.T stocks bleed yesterday then Banking / Metals / Realestate / Pharma etc managed the indices. Today also same thing may repeat again but sector may change.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 08 October 2009 :

Fii -376
Dii -21
Fii (derivatives) -309 (net)
Index Futures +474
Index Options -1
Stock Futures -789
Stock Options +7
Fii OI 67k Crores only & Mkt Volumes 97k Crores only.

NEWS :

* Infosys results will be out today,
*Inflation at 0.70% v/s 0.83 last week,
* Pipavav shipyard ipo listing today, issue price Rs 58/-, Premium 4-5,
* Tata Motors set to launch Tata Manza before Diwali,
* Gold at life time highs,
*Shangai markets opens +ve after a week of closing,

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/group/AlliesFin

Market Views for 07 October 2009

2009-10-07T07:56:00.000+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e Intraday levels :
Close 5027
Supports 5005 / 4985 / 4949
Resistances 5050 / 5070 / 5111

Yesterday after opening +ve due to global cues markets saw some profit booking at higher levels & almost fell by 200-250 points in intraday. Nifty also tested lower band supports of 4919-4949 & sharp bounce was seen upto 5030-5040 levels, almost rise of only 100 points on intra day basis. Nifty futures turned to Premium of 10-12 points after discount of the same points in opening trades, indicating Short covering & some fresh long build ups. The rally was mainly led by Banking / Capital Goods/ Metals etc while the laggards were Telecom & IT stocks.

Today markets may open +ve backed by global cues & we may see markets testing higher resistance bands. Also few days back in our Newsletter on 30th September 2009 we mentioned about Re/$ effect like Rupee will appreciate against Dollars. The then price was 48-48.25 & yesterday it closed below 47 near 46.8xx To read more Click on this link , Regular visitors to our website may be knowing this & must have benefitted with the same. During $ depreciation Gold / Crude in Dollar terms moves up / Indian I.T stocks may bear some pain & also Indian Exporters have to bear some pain due to payment re-imbursements.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 06 October 2009 :

Fii -157
Dii -768
Fii(derivatives) -588
Index Futures -241
Index Options +400
Stk Futures -714
Stock Options -33

NEWs :

* Gold at record highs & tests $1045 / Ounce.
* Rcom joins tariff wars in Telecom, introduces Re 0.50 per min pulse.
*Family MoU is not binding on corporate entity: RIL files affidavit.
* October 13, 2009 declared as Trading holiday for BSE/NSE on A/c assembly elections in Maharastra.
*2day RIL board meet for Audited Results & dividend declation if any.
*Hackers strike email services of Google, Microsoft and Yahoo.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

2009-10-05T08:10:00.000+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e Intraday levels :

Close : 5083

Supports : 5050 / 5015 / 4975

Resistances : 5115 / 5151 / 5181

On Thursday Nifty made a new high if 5111 very close to our resistance level of 5115 & managed to close flat after a volatile session.As soon as Indian markets closed world markets started showing their colors & in just 2 trading sessions they were down by 2-5% approx. They took advantage of closure of Indian markets on A/c of Gandhi Jayanti as they know Indian markets are hardcore bull markets & once they are off then can only this selling off advantage can be taken.

Earnings season will start & as told earlier that there would be revision in EPS, this would make the P/E comfortable for Fundamentalist & they would re-rate the stock/sector from overvalued to fairly valued.

Fii’s have been pouring money like if there is no tomorrow & this same situation we have seen before the election time in May 2009. We think the Fii’s understand more better the Fundamental re-rating situation & have been buying stocks after adjust FY11 Earnings estimates.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 01 October 2009

Fii +976
Dii -334
Fii ( derivatives ) +36
Index Futures -553
Index Options +311
Stock Futures +272
Stock Options +5
Fii OI 65k Crores only.

News :

· Heavy to Heavy Rainfall in Mumbai & other parts of Country, sometimes back we feared for Drought now in some areas we fear due to floods.
· Asian markets are trading flat to +ve after –ve opening & also Dow futures are trading +ve.
· SGX Nifty trading –ve by 70-80 points to cover the pain of global markets but we expect recovery from lower levels.
· Telecom co Aircel has tied up with BSNL for Nationwide sharing of Towers, this is the second time that BSNL has entered an agreement to share its Network after Tata Telecom.
· We are entering the Eight month of bull run in markets from March 2009 to October 2009. Number 8 is Fibo level & if markets sustain rally in this month then we can see rally for next 5 months i.e upto end of current financial year else we may see profit booking. Make sure print media may not panic for this.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com

Market Views for 01 October 2009

2009-10-01T08:46:00.000+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels :
Close 5084
Supports : 5050 / 5025 / 4994
Resistances : 5115 / 5125 / 5151

Nifty closed yesterday very close to our resistance level of 5080 & was the second day to close above 5000 mark. We are witnessing Euphoria / accumlation in stock specific moves & it may intensify even more as updating since last many days.

Due to global cues markets open weak but wil find good supports near lower levels as updated above. Also stock specific approach would be better as still many cos have not participated in the rally.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 30 September 2009 :

Fii +1075
Dii +160
Fii(deri)-304
Index Futures -444
Index Options -341
Stock Futures +488
Stock Options -7

News :

* Auto nos wil be out today : can give intra day gains.
* Inflation nos wil be out today : expected to be +ve territory from weeks of -ve inflation.
* Bharti - Mtn deal called off : +ve for Bharti Airtel stock for Intraday.
* As expected OIL India ipo listed with gains of RS 40-50 or 4-5% and moved higher for 8-10% gains, this may turn a +ve clue for forthoming IPO's.
* Tata Teleservices has signed Tower sharing deal with BSNL, this is the first time that BSNL is sharing towers with Private Telecom Service providers.
* Oberoi / Hiranandani contructions may come up with ipo as many reality developers are in hard need to turn due to slow down since last 1-2 yeras. Also many cos have raised monies through QIP route & as told earlier it has been a fashion to come up with QIP's...

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com
Email Group : http://groups.google.com/group/ALLIESFIN

Market Views for 30 September 2009

2009-09-30T08:10:00.002+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels
Close : 5007
Supports : 4994 / 4977 / 4949
Resistances : 5023 / 5050 / 5080

Markets after GAP up opening witnessed a very range bound session of just 20-25 points in Nifty. We continue with our previous receomendations that Nifty spot must cross & close above 5025 - 5050 with good volumes for fresh buying in markets for further up move. Till then it would be stock / sector specific moves.

Few days back we talked about Euphoria in People's Favorite stocks & untill we see that markets may not see major correction. Since last week we are witnessing such accumulation in many mid/small cap stocks which leads to beginning of Euphoria. In such moves, stocks / sectors gives wild upside moves making people feel that they have missed the rally & they start entering in markets as if there is no tomorrow. Such rally makes people to forget Valuations / Fundamentals / Technicals / Global news / etc etc. Generally such rallies are the last leg of the Bull run in short term. So people must try to control their emotions & must do thorough study be for entering the stock.

Yesterday was the 1st close above 5000 levels & if today Nifty manages to close above 5000 then we may see Euphoria in days to come. Above 5050 higher resistances are placed at 5080 - 5115 - 5151. Also another thing to be watched is Re/$ move as since last many months Re/$ is being in the range 48-50 & most of the Foreign monies are invested around these levels. When markets were near last peak of 21k Re/$ use to trade around 40-42, so from current 48 levels we still atleast 5-10% Rupee appreciation in the near term like not 40-42 but atleast we may see 44-46 levels. So if we see Euphoria in markets & along with that if we see Rupee appreciating then such logic outcome is mainly the last leg of the rally.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 29 Septmeber 2009 :

Fii +715
Dii +92
Fii (derivatives) +697
Index Futures +158
Index Options +123
Stock Futures +417
Stock Options -2
Fii OI 62k Crores only.
Markets Volumes were low around 60k Crores only.

News:

* Oil India ipo listing, premium 40-50 Rs per share.

* Fii's in buying spree since last many days & months & analyst are having cautious approach, under such coilation lets see where are Markets headed ????

* BSNL may come up with IPO nxt year : every year such news comes out, the story of BSNL-MTNL merger builds up or story of MTNL land sale builds up the stock moves up investors / traders start believing the story - buys stock at higher levels - stocks falls - investors/traders gets trapped. Since last many years we have seen the same story repeating in markets.

*Fii flows have been 5th Highest in September 2009 : Fii being net buyers in Equity markets by Rs 17k Crores only in September itself & being recorded as best month for inflows after May 2009. Fii inflows have been Rs 57k Crores only this year till date which means more money came into Indian markets against 55k Crores which went out in year 2008. Still we are only 4000 Points away from peak of 21k from recent 17k. Does this mean that Fii are more confident about India's Growth Story as compared to the Citizens of India.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.alliesfin.blogspot.com

Market Views : Weekly

2009-09-29T08:10:00.001+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e intra day levels :
Close 4959
Supports 4949 / 4919 / 4888
Resistances 4977 / 4994 / 5020

We continue with the previous recomendations in markets that Nifty must cross & close above 5025-5050 for fresh buying else we may see profit booking from current levels. Also there is fear among people to buy at current levels due to over valued or highly priced stocks & they may be correct too this time as not all the time the Retail people are the Targets to fix the stocks at higher prices. But under such conditions we remember " BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFULL ", this quote is mainly for Smart Traders & not Investors.

We see good short term support in markets around 4888-4900 levels & close below this can help markets to test lower levels of 4825-4777. Yesterday smart rally was seen in European markets followed by American markets as in Germany election Poll results show Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats on track with 33.5% and the Free Democrats at 14.5%. Such news was released late evening as per IST & after that we smart rally rally in those markets.

There are no local -ve news in the markets but as there is Globalisation markets may follow the same. Also on Saturday we saw nos for India's core sector growth at 7.1%, more details is updated in News section below. Nos were impressive & shows some kind of Economical recovery. This are some +ve news for markets in short term.

PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES RUPEES CRORES FOR 25 SEPT 2009 :

Fii -38
Dii +227
Fii (derivatives) +990
Index Futures -359
Index Options +1706
Stock Futures -359
Stock Options +2
FII OI 61k Crores only.

News :

* OIL INDIA ipo listing on 30 September 2009 in B group.
Issue Price Rs 1050/- only.

* RIL-RPL merged in ratio 1:16, RPL got delisted on 25 September 2009 as record date is 29 September 2009.

* Working days in this week is only 3. Markets are closed on 2nd October 2009 on A/c of Gandhi Jayanti.

* Coming October 1, 2009 Results season will start & we expect some good results from India Inc's. Due to this there would be re-rating in the stock , upside revision in Earnings & P/E would again come to fair levels from current high peaks which leads to overvaluations. But many of these things have been factored in the current market prices as per analysts.

* The market regulator, SEBI (Securities & Exchange Board of India) has okayed Indiabulls Power's IPO (initial public offering). This subsidiary of IndiaBulls Reality is expected to raise around Rs 2,000 crore.

* India's core sector clocks healthy 7.1% August growth : If growth in the core sector, which comprises of six industries, is anything to go by, India is well on its way to a sustained economic recovery. India’s core sector clocked a healthy growth of 7.1% compared to 2.1% year-on-year (YoY). Growth in the April-August quarter stood at 4.8% compared to the same period last year.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : www.alliesfin.blogspot.com

Market Views for 25 September 2009

2009-09-25T08:10:00.000+05:30

Hello Friends,

N i f T i e e Intraday levels :
Close 4986
Supports : 4949 / 4919 / 4888
Resistances : 5020 / 5050 / 5090

As expected market was highly volatile on the day of Expiry as opened Gap down, tested even lower level of 4909 in first hour of trade & slowly & gradually moved up. 4919-4949 was the range where Nifty remained for the day untill the last hour of trade, but once it broke 4949 with good volumes , short covering was seen & we saw a flyier in markets from 4949 to 5016 levels.

Markets are back to crucial levels of 5000 & as we discussed earlier Nifty need to close above 5000 for minimum 2 to 3 days then only we can see Euphoria in markets & also in many people's favourite stocks. Nifty face immediate resistance near 5025-5050 levels & cross & close over above these levels only can bring fresh buying in the markets else we may see profit booking only. Also since last 2 days world markets are also taking a breather at higher levels & if there is deep cuts globally then we need to bear the pain too as we are not distinguished.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 24 September 2009 :

Fii +1062
Dii -617
Fii (derivatives) +366
Index Futures +601
Index Options +594
Stock Futures -847
Stock Options +18
Fii OI 59k Crores only from 78k Crores.

News :
Rel Infratel / Lodha group / Emaar MGF files IPO-DRHP with SEBI,
Jet Airways okays Fund Raising Rs 1800-2000 Crores,
FED leaves BenchMark Rates unchanged,
Inflation for week ended Sept 12 @ 0.37% v/s 0.12%,
Reliance may cut Gas to Reliance Infrastructure due to delay in payments...

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Market Views for 24 September 2009

2009-09-24T08:10:00.001+05:30

Hello Friends,

NifTiee Intra day levels :
Close 4970
Supports : 4949 / 4919 / 4889
Resistances : 4994 / 5025 / 5050

Nifty is facing important resistanaces around 5025-5050 levels since last two days & yesterday good profit booking was seen in last hour of trade due to F&O expiry coming close. Also many people in India were cautious about FED meet in U.S & paniced by selling stocks at throw away price for the day.

Anyways Nifty may find good support around 4929-4949 levels & today would being the Expiry day for September Series we may see high volatility in short span of time.
Provisional Fund Flow Fig Rupees Crores for 23 September 2009:

Fii + 1749
Dii + 500
Fii (derivatives) - 1176 (net)
Index Futures -528
Index Options +86
Stock Futures -730
Stock Options -4
OI 78k Crores only.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.alliesfin.blogspot.com/

Earlier Posts / Updates

2009-09-21T19:47:00.001+05:30

Hello Friends,

We would like to request you to read the Archieves part of our web starting from March 2009 to September 2009.

Here are links of archieves month wise :

March 2009
April 2009
May 2009
June 2009
July 2009
August 2009
September 2009

Click on each link to read views for that particular month & once opened then read from bottom of page & move up.

Good Day

Regards,

Allies Financial Services
Mumbai, India
Website : http://www.AlliesFin.BlogSpot.Com/
Email Group : http://Groups.Google.Com/Group/AlliesFin