Zapatero '08

2008-06-02T15:51:00.006+01:00

Hello whatever readers are left of this blog,

As you'd have noticed I stopped blogging here a while ago. We are going back now to 'politics as usual' after the race in Spain and I don't think that many non-Spanish speaking people would want to follow the topic, neither I find it exciting enough at the moment to do so.

But as I really enjoyed blogging so I set up a new blog over at wordpress.com. The new blog is called Forgesian Thinking. It will focused mainly in UK politics but a bit of everything will be thrown in to make it a bit less dense than Zapatero '08 was. There will be stories on the American race, Spanish politics (of course) and anything I find relevant to share with the world really.

So please click on the link and come around have a look!

Hope to see some of you over there soon.

Rajoy stays

2008-03-12T11:03:00.002Z

Mariano Rajoy, the defeated PP candidate in the March 9 election has pledged himself for a third candidacy to the Presidency in 2012. This will be his second term as leader of the opposition.

Rajoy met yesterday with his party leadership and stated his intention to fight for reelection as leader of PP in the summer conference. Heavyweights like Aguirre and Camps, presumed potential succesors, have announced that they won't challenge the current leader. PP is well known for its hierarchical organisationl discipline, hardly leaders' are challenged in public. If Rajoy wants to stay it will be hard to kick him out, only someone with greater authority within the party could force him out, and that person is Jose Maria Aznar. So far Aznar, of whom Rajoy is his chosen successor in 2004, hasn't spoken after the electoral defeat. I presume many younger and ambitious candidates will be awaiting his judgement on the disarray within the conservative party.

Rajoy's uncertain future

2008-03-11T11:33:00.003Z

International coverage

2008-03-10T19:01:00.002Z

UK:
The Guardian
BBC
The Times
Financial Times

US:
NY Times
Washington Post

France:
Le Monde

The electoral analysis

2008-03-10T18:07:00.002Z

With all votes counted the official results are as follow in number of seats, in brackets the 2004 results:

PSOE: 169 (164)
PP: 153 (148)
CiU: 11 (10)
PNV: 6 (7)
ERC: 3 (8)
IU: 2 (5)
BNG: 2 (2)
CC: 2 (3)
UPyD: 1 (-)
Na-Bai: 1 (1)
EA: - (1)
CHA: - (1)

The trend is one of increased bipartisanship with two clear losers, IU and ERC that lose 3 and 5 seats respectively. UPyD wins one seat in Madrid and enter Congress.

These results show that the electorate is worried about more radical forms of peripheral nationalisms. It also shows that PSOE has lost a small part of its more moderate 'Spanish' vote to PP and UPyD. However, PSOE makes clear inroads into peripheral nationalist areas in the Basque Country and Catalonia. For the first time in 15 years PSOE wins more votes than the Basque nationalists (PNV) in the three Basque provinces.

So a electoral conclusion would be that PSOE has moved towards the left of the spectrum, winning seats from nationalists and left wing parties. PP on the other side make a small inroad into the more moderate Socialist voters worried about immigration and nationalisms. However, PSOE's increase in votes and the more radical parties losses mean that Zapatero can enjoy a comfortable four years governing on his own with specific pacts with moderate nationalists in Congress. Moreover, Zapatero having dealt with the most controversial parts of the reforms he promised, the territorial ones, should enjoy a more popular mandate until 2012 with a focus on the economic and social policies. PP on the other side has also gained seats which probably will mean that some of their policies on immigration and territoriality will stay. However, their ultra-agressive attitude in Congress these past four years will change as it has failed them. The big question is if Rajoy will stay as leader or resign. With yesterday's results both things are possible, Rajoy could stay arguing that his number have gone up, but younger and more charismatic candidates might be planning to move his chair. Too early to say.

Overall, four more years for PSOE which is a great accomplishment after the very tense past four years. However, lessons must be learnt. A more efficient communication policy is needed to better explain Government actions and policies. Moderation will be essential to not forget our core vote. I am aware that plenty of left wing voters feel that IU and other left wing forces deserve a greater share of the seats and could come back to vote for them in 2012. If that's the case we will need our moderates back.

But for the time being, sit back and enjoy a victory that was tough to achieve but that all Socialists, leadership, activistis, grassroots, all of them have fought inch by inch until the final victory.

ISTA, ISTA, ISTA, ESPAÑA ES SOCIALISTA!

2008-03-09T22:17:00.008Z

It's official now, Zapatero has won reelection with 169 seats to 153 for PP.

In the wise words of Alaistair Campbell, thank fuck for that.

We get a bigger majority to govern the country in a more comfortable way. Four more years of Socialism are exactly what Spain needs.

Rajoy conceded victory to Zapatero, but did it in a not very convincing way. For me the most important message to come out of PP's leadership mouth is we will change our opposition strategy. Less confrontation and more cooperation for the good of the country.

But the big news tonight is that PRESIDENT ZAPATERO HAS WON REELECTION IN SPAIN!

I want to thank you all the people who has read this blog for the past five months. I will keep writing for the next few days with post-election analysis. After that I will reflect on what to do with the blog and maybe change the topic slightly, but definitely enjoy blogging and hope to keep doing it in the future.

The final result 169 for PSOE, PP 153. The party still goes on. I would like to remember Isaias Carrasco murdered by ETA on Friday. This Socialist victory is in your honour. Rest in peace comrade.

More offical data

2008-03-09T20:30:00.005Z

With 51.34% of all votes officially counted:

PSOE: 172 seats

PP: 150 seats

Remember, 176 absolute majority.

Can't find any better word than BOLLOCKS, numbers are closing down between PSOE and PP, with 67% of all votes counted,

PSOE: 168
PP: 154

Pretty sure absolute majority seems pretty far, though the distance with PP is big enough to keep calm. More numbers to come faster now...

Andalucia

2008-03-09T20:14:00.004Z

Andalucia today also voted for their regional government. Polls and commentary are talking about a Socialist victory and the reelection of Manuel Chaves as President of Andalucia. However it could be he lost his absolute majority in the Regional Assembly.

New data as I'm writing, with 16% of all votes counted, PSOE 173 seats and PP 136. PP's vote should go up though. Turnout seems to be around 73% lower than in 2004 but anything over 70% is good news for Zapatero.

I just checked on my champagne bottle and it's chilled and ready to go...hopefully.

First votes counted

2008-03-09T20:09:00.002Z

With 10% of all votes counted the current result is:

PSOE: 173 seats
PP: 136 seats

Small share but the night is looking good.

First exit polls

2008-03-09T19:01:00.003Z

First exit polls at 8pm.

TVE TV Ipsos poll:

PSOE: 172-176 seats (45%)
PP: 148-152 seats (38.6%)

Absolute majority is on 176 so it could happen.

Cadena SER radio:

PSOE: 168-173 seats
PP: 145-149 seats

Antena 3 TV:

PSOE: 163-166 seats
PP: 149-152 seats

Cuatro TV:

PSOE: 168-173 seats
PP: 145-149 seats

T5 TV:

PSOE: 172-178 seats
PP: 142-148 seats

One hour to closing of the polls

2008-03-09T18:09:00.002Z

Election day is gone into dead heat. The second and final statement from the Interior Ministry on participation was 2 points lower than in 2004. At 5.30 pm 60.95% of the electorate had voted in comparison to 63.02% in 2004.

Furthermore I have been looking at numbers by regions and conservative regions are voting in greater numbers than Socialist ones. However, Cadena Ser radio is reporting that in Madrid, Socialist towns are voting in greater numbers than in the more conservative capital city. Madrid has already surpassed its turnout of 2004, projections claim at 7 pm.

In 15 min. TVE station is starting their eleciton special with first exit polls in 45 min. You can watch live online here.

Anecdote of the day

2008-03-09T14:33:00.005Z

Illan de Vacas, a little village near Toledo and Madrid, has a population of 6 people. Out of those 6 only 3 can vote. Under the law, every polling booth has to have three people overseeing the process and must remain open until 8pm. The obvious problem here is that the three people at the table are the only ones to vote, but by law (again) they can only introduce their ballot as agents after 8pm. This means that the three only people with a right to vote in Illan de Vacas are seating for 10 hours in front of a box waiting to cast their ballot even though noone else is going to show up to vote. The rules are the rules.

The picture above is the actuall polling station in the village. According to one of the agents they are twisting the rules a little bit by playing a game of domino and taking a little nap before 8pm.

(This is all true by the way).

First data

2008-03-09T14:04:00.003Z

Turnout is high at 2 pm, 40.7%, just 0.3 lower than in 2004. However I'm looking at region by region data and Socialists regions like Andalucia and Catalonia are low (around 37%) while Valencia, Madrid and Murcia, big conservative regions are much higher (47%).

Polls close at 8 pm and the first exit polls will be ready. Final results will come out around 10 pm. All of this Spanish time (GMT+1).

I will bring you any information we get as the day goes along.

Good news in Aragon where some marginals are in play. Participation is 42.4%, higher than average but more importantly Zaragoza and Huesca the two of the provinces that are more Socialist leaning are on 43.4% and 40.24% respectively, while Teruel, more conservative and PP's economic heavyweight Pizarro home region, is on 39.74%.

Still we need a higher turnout in Andalucia and Catalonia, they are key. More to come.

She's voting, are you?

2008-03-09T13:45:00.002Z

Two days after her dad was murdered by those that want to derail the democratic process she's gone cast her ballot... don't let the right win because you stayed home, VOTE!

...and a divisive PP

2008-03-08T14:17:00.003Z

Yesterday the joint Congressional condemnation for the assasination of Isaias Carrasco, became exactly what it should not have been, another show of division by PP.

During the closed door meeting, Ignacio Astarloa, PP's spokesperson for justice and security in Congress, demanded a mention to the end of the 2005 Congressional resolution allowing the Government to negotiate a peace process in the Basque Country. All the parties refused his demand as unnecessary in a short note of democratic unity. Afterwards, Joan Ridao, spokesperson for ERC, proposed to have all official spokespeople together to read the statement in a show of unity. Astarloa again refused and prefered to do it each one individually. Finally, Astarloa in his statement revealed two details of the negotiations: that the rest of the parties were against the derogation of the 2005 resolution and to include any mention that no political concessions would be offered in a future peace process (this second issue the parties thought wasn't related to the institutional condemnation). Before him, Aguirre, PP's President of Madrid, live in T5 TV station, after the assasination was known, accused the Government of calling Arnaldo Otegui, the Basque Gerry Adams, a 'man of peace'. Mariano Rajoy himself in the morning avoided any strong words but a 'people know what I think' escaped his lips.

The rest of the parties (PSOE, CiU, PNV, ERC, IU, EA, CHA, BNG and CC) all read the joint statement and did not answer questions from journalists. The democratic unity broken again by the same party that had done for the past four years.

A courageous daughter...

2008-03-08T14:01:00.003Z

Following on yesterday's murder of a Socialist comrade, I have here translated the words of Sandra Carrasco, daughter of Isaias, and 19 years of age. Her calm and strength yesterday was heart-stopping, people like her and her dad makes one be extremely proud to be part of the Socialist family in Spain.

'First of all I would like to thanks from the bottom of my heart the support of the village of Arrasate. Of those anonymous citizens that have come to me, my family, to offer their love and support in these hard times. Thank you to be with my mother, my brother Adei and my sister Ainara. I also want to use these cameras and mics to thanks the Socialists for being here with us.

My father has been killed for defending freedom, democracy and Socialist ideas. He has always been a courageous man, that stood up. And those that have killed him are just cowards.

But more than anything I want to ask for something. That is that the murder of my father is not manipulated by anyone. We are not going to let that happen. I, my mother, all of us are going to vote. And that is what I ask for. And those that want to show solidarity with my father, and with our pain, must go vote en masse on Sunday to tell the murderers that we are not going to take a single step back. Thank you'.

Campaigning tools

2008-03-07T15:52:00.003Z

As part of my masters on politics and communication I have had the great opportunity to attend a class with Philip Gould and Alistair Campbell, Tony Blair's chief strategists from 1997 until 2005, on campaigning techniques.

In the picture above we can see how PP strategists use the grid, a communication tool promoted by Campbell when working in Number 10, that helps structure the campaign's message for clarity of argumentation. PSOE's Ferraz HQ have been refurbished to use an open plant office similar to that of Clinton's 92 Little Rock HQ and Blair's 97 Millbank HQ.

The professionalisation of campaigning in Spain is developing at an extremely fast pace and it seems there are evidence that some of those techniques are coming from the anglosaxon world.

ETA kills again

2008-03-07T14:38:00.003Z

Public excitement, the democratic spirit, politicians talking to the people, everything has been shattered at 3 pm today. ETA has assasinated Isaias Carrasco, a former Socialist candidate to councillor in the village of Mondragon in the Basque Country. Carrasco was killed in front of his wife and daughter at their home's doorstep.

The official campaign has been cancelled and an emergency Congressional meeting has been called by President Zapatero at 7 pm today. Zapatero is flying back to Madrid from Malaga while the Interior Minister, Perez Rubalcaba, is coordinating activities already from the Ministry.

Isaias Carrasco was a PSOE candidate in the past May 2007 local elections and currently worked as a ticket officer in one of the motorways in the area.

This nonsense has got to stop, one cannot but dream of a day when we will have a democratic election in this country free of the fear of terrorism...

Out and about

2008-03-07T14:08:00.003Z

In an exercise of extreme egocentrism I would like to point out that Zapatero '08 has got a mention in Charlie Beckett's blog.

Charlie is the Director of the Polis Institute at the London School of Economics. You can check out his blog listed in the blogroll below, some of you might have seen it before as the link has been there for a while. The Polis Institute is a journalism and society think tank attached to the Media department at the LSE as well as the London College of Communications.

A big thanks to Charlie and the LSE Media department, where I'm enrolled, for their support.

The internet overtakes electoral law

2008-03-07T13:33:00.003Z

Following on yesterday's poll in El Periodic of Andorra, new polls abroad give us a peak on how things are looking before Sunday despite the legal ban enforced within Spain.

El Periodic on its final poll today puts PSOE at 42,6% and PP on 38,6%. PSOE goes up 0,2% and PP down 0,4% from yesterday's poll. This poll today was conducted by GESOP with 1,200 interviews higher than yesterday's with just 900.

The Times newspaper in London has also published a poll that puts PSOE up 3.8 points, the Socialists will get 43,1% of the vote to PP's 39,3%. Interestingly enough, The Times poll also shows a staggering 55,7% of males and 68,1% of females supporting PP's proposal for a contract for immigrants entering Spain.

I think these two polls give a pretty accurate picture of the situation at the moment. The Periodic poll also predicts a lower turnout than in 2004 (75,66%) at around 70%.

The campaign will draw to a close at midnight today, the blogosphere-led Project 80% (aimed at achieving a 80% turnout on Sunday) is on full swing, so wherever you are pick up your phone, laptop or any other way you can contact voters and let's get out the vote, remember low turnout hurts us and that's what PP has been playing at for the past four years. Don't let them play with our democratic system, vote!

UPyD-PP: a comparison

2008-03-06T18:41:00.004Z

One of my readers has challenged me to give further evidence of Diez being a puppet for PP. Firstly, I'd like to thank him for his comment that always enriches debate and secondly I will gladly accept his challenge.

Here are some comparisons in statements between Diez and the PP leadership:

'It's an obscenity the use of numbers to count the dead'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on May 5, 2008.
'It's very miserable of him to compare numbers of deaths'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on May 5, 2008.

'It means Zapatero is against the Pact for liberty and against terrorism'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on May 5, 2008.
'With the arrival of PSOE to power the Pact for liberty and against terroism is broken'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on June 2, 2006.

'When I say Spain breaks I mean a fracture of constitutional Spain'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 24, 2007.
'The secessionist menace, the breaking of the State, the fragmentation of the national sentiment. In other words, a great national crisis'- Jose Maria Aznar (PP) on October 4, 2007

'Those that don't put it up [the Spanish national flag] attack the citizenry'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2007.
'It's the flag that unites us all and it has to be put up in all the town halls of Spain'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on September 8, 2007.

'PSOE has stopped being a centralist party and started defending the nationalists' interests'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2008.
'PP defends better the interests of Spain and of all its citizens'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on February 22, 2008.

'To act against terrorism without political concessions'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2007.
'To support the Government in the anti-terrorist fight but without political concessions'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on May 27, 2006.

The fact is that Diez uses the same catastrophist language as Rajoy and Aznar and focuses her entire campaign on supporting PP's key attack lines. Furthermore, for all those that don't know who Rita Barbera is just simply say she's not your moderate conservative of the likes of Gallardon and Villalobos but rather part of the hardline within PP, more Aguirre style.

A vote for UPyD is a vote for PP

2008-03-06T16:16:00.007Z

After Rosa Diez graciously hanged around with Rita Barbera, the infamous PP Mayor of Valencia, during the regional festivities, do we need any more prove that Diez and her new party are nothing more than a puppet for PP?

Let images speak for themselves. Barbera known for her staunch partisanship would never have invited anyone from PSOE to attend her populist rallies around Valencia capital. Diez has shown her true colours now and nothing she says can change her image or that of UPyD.

I'd like to know what Fernando Savater has to say about this picture though, as he always claims their new party is leftwing to the core, don't think Barbera would be his favourite companion...

A final push

2008-03-06T14:38:00.002Z

We are three days away from election day. No polls allowed anymore, the campaign finishes tomorrow as Saturday will be left by law for citizens to think and make up their minds for the Sunday vote. Having said that electoral laws obviously don't apply in Andorra where today El Periodic newspaper has published a poll that puts the Socialists 3.4 points ahead of PP. Frankly, the poll argues that PSOE lost some votes after the second debate and that participation is expected now around 64%, I find those facts hard to believe. The poll was conducted only with 600 phone interviews which doesn't seem very thorough. Also all final polls in Spain have given PSOE and advantage of around 5-6 points so would doubt a 900 interview poll would give a more accurate picture, still it's good to remind us that we have three days to mobilise leftwing voters and get out the vote.

Socialist activists need to go out there for a final push to win big on Sunday, leftwing voters have to go vote, we need a high turnout to win and let the right know promoting abstention without providing proposals for the country doesn't work in Spain.

Freedom for Western Sahara

2008-03-05T23:13:00.002Z

Some of you may know, some of you might have never heard of this conflict in your lives. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised. This conflict, the same as plenty of other conflicts in Africa and Asia, have been forgotten by us Westeners.

However in Spain the Western Sahara conflict is still alive and kicking. Thousands of Saharaui children come every summer to Spain to study and enjoy a well deserved holiday after plenty of years of missery in the Tindouf refuggee camps in Algeria.

The conflict goes as follows. Western Sahara used to be a colony of Spain all the way up to 1975 when the so-called 'Green March' by Moroccan troops and civilians in the last days of Franco's dictatorship invaded the territory. After Mauritania and Morocco divided the Western Sahara territory, the Polisario Front, the Saharaui independence movement, declared war and managed to expel Mauritanian forces though not the Moroccan ones. In 1991 a UN-backed peacekeeping force, MINURSO, forced a ceasefire enforced until today. Morocco on one side and the Polisario and Algeria on the other keep reclaiming autonomy within a Moroccan state the first and an independent Saharaui state the latter.

I, as a Socialist and a former activist for the freedom of the Saharaui people, believe it is time Zapatero, if reelected on March 9, pushes for a final solution, self-determination, to the Western Sahara problem. The Polisario Front and plenty of Saharauis have felt betrayed by us Socialists who negotiated with Morocco our immigration policy and fishing quotas. And as much as it might hurt it's true. But we can't anymore turn a blind eye to the sufferings of plenty of people stranded in the middle of the Sahara dessert waiting to go back to the territory is rightfully theirs. I know Morocco is our most important southern neighbour, I know our immigration, security and fisheries policies are extremely dependent on them. But an injustice as big as that suffered by the Saharaui people for 33 years embarrasess me as a Spanish Socialist and a friend of the Saharaui people as most PSOE activists are.

We, I believe, are going to win on March 9, it's about time we start demanding what we expect from our incoming government...and freedom for Western Sahara is long overdue.

More international support for Zapatero

2008-03-05T14:53:00.002Z

Today the left-leaning French newspaper Liberation dedicates an entire edition of the paper to the Spanish general election and praises Zapatero's fusion of economic modernisation with social progress.

On the other hand, the platform to support Zapatero, created by a group of artists and other intellectuals, has added new names to their support base for a Socialist victory on March 9, including Carlos Fuentes, Daniel Barenboim, Bernardo Bertolucci, Helen Caldicott, Ian Gibson, Joseph Stiglitz and Gervasio Deffer.