Concise Trading

A market too fast to blog on

2008-10-09T22:20:00.000-07:00

The market has been so fast that I haven't had the time to blog about it.

Here is what I did today.

1.)I sold the rest of my LEN puts (yeah, another profitable position).

2.)I sold my last 2 puts on MS.

3.)I bought a little more AAPL

4.)I bought Nov. 55 calls for X for $5.5

This is forced liquidation. Tomorrow could be more of the same, but when common stock is as volatile as options usually are, then I think it's time to buy some of the companies I like (ie. AAPL, and X).

LEN post bailout puts (trade part 2)

2008-10-06T11:35:00.000-07:00

I closed half of my LEN Jan. puts at 1.05 today. Almost doubled my money already.

I also bought a little common stock of AAPL at 89.15. seems like a rediculously low price considering earnings are coming up and should look good.

Feeling sick today, so that's all I got.
Ryan

LEN post bailout puts

2008-10-03T10:55:00.000-07:00

I am buying the LEN January 7.5 puts for 0.65. I never got the pop in the stock that I looked for post bailout...it's not a perfect world, so I am starting to build my position where I can.

Ryan

AAPL call spread

2008-10-02T08:26:00.000-07:00

I just bought an apple call spread. I bought the Oct. 110 call at 4.35 and sold the Oct. 120 call for 1.81.

I am not necessarily looking for extended immediate upmovement in aapl, but I do think that the coming quarterly report for aapl will bring a spike in the stock.

Ryan

Tricks for entering my new put positions

2008-10-01T21:09:00.000-07:00

As I said earlier, I am looking to buy puts on the home builders. Here is the entry strategy I am looking hoping for.

1.) Hoping (not because I think it's a good idea, but because it will be tradeable) that the bailout passes.

2.) If the bill passes and is met with lots of buying, then I will start watching the 300 minute chart, with bollinger bands on it.

3.) If I can buy put's 10% or so out of the money for April 2009, then I will, but only one or two contracts.

4.) If volatility drops from there before prices begin another decline, then I will buy more puts for April 2009 and possibly January 2010.

Happy I am writing this down, it really helps me keep my head clear.
Ryan

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trading congress

2008-09-28T15:37:00.000-07:00

I am not trading much right now. I am waiting for congress to vote. I think they will pass a bailout and that will be the time for me to start watching charts and buying puts on the home builders.

I view the home builders (especially len) as some of the easiest long term shorts I have seen. One particular reason I want to short LEN is that they are going to have a much harder time financing their debt in the next year, even while they will continue to incur operating losses.

Credit is not cheap. LEN needs cheap credit. Houses aren't moving. LEN needs housing to fly.

Ryan

my shorts on Sep. 18th 2008

2008-09-18T10:33:00.000-07:00

I am out of almost all my shorts. I still have some Jan. regional bank puts and a little bit of my Morgan Stanley puts. I want to be short, but I can't leave profits on the table.

I will have to update how all those trades worked out soon, but the trading has been soooo fast I haven't had time to blog.

Ryan

The open of Sep. 15, 2008

2008-09-15T06:47:00.000-07:00

I am kinda scratching my head today at the first 15 minutes of trading. Things are no where near as ugly as they should be. I think that people are in here with the attitude that we are testing the bottom. I also think that people may be thinking that this is similar to the BSC low. It's not.

Extrapolating history into the future doesn't work for trading. This is not the BSC low. I hope others out there aren't trading like it is.

Ryan

BAC

2008-09-10T08:58:00.000-07:00

I am shorting BAC today. I shorted the common at 31.68 and sold the sep. 30 put for $0.91.

If this expires in the money, then I will make 8% 7 trading days. That's a lot.

Ryan

LEH MER

2008-09-09T08:35:00.001-07:00

I bought back my LEH and MER positions today. Things are moving so fast. I will give details of prices and percent gained later. Right now, I have to be trading.
Ryan

LEH and XLF

2008-09-08T10:06:00.000-07:00

I took off half of my LEH common stock position. I bought back the stock at 13.26 and bought back the put at 3.05. I caught about 7.5 percent in this trade. I usually don't do that well over night.

The XLF looks to be putting in a lower high as compared to this morning. I want a chance to get into the SKF (to make money on the financials coming back down).

I have too psychological trading points today.

1.)I don't care about the FNM FRE bailout. I don't believe it helps the market. I just think it makes the decline more tradeable. (time will tell if I am right)

2.)I slept through the open today, because I knew there was going to be a very emotional trading response to the news. My trading has been the best it's been in months. I think that's because I slept through the crap, then with a clear head I started trading.

Ryan

Closed more MER opened LEH

2008-09-05T11:55:00.000-07:00

I bought back some MER at 25.45 and bought back more of my puts at 1.70. Total profit on these is about 4% since Aug. 29.

I started a LEH short today at 16.16 and sold the 15 put for 1.28. If these expire in the money I will get about 15% in less than 2 weeks of trading. That's opportunity.

Ryan

SPY thoughts on a strange chart/indicator

2008-09-04T09:12:00.000-07:00

I have a little trick with bollinger bands(I use it to swing trade). I look at a 300 minute chart and look to see how a stock reacts after it gets well outside the bollinger bands. It only works well on indexes.

So far, the spy is well out of the bands on the downside and is showing no real buying signs. This is rare. I don't want to buy the index anymore to hedge my puts on the banks.

Ryan

MER trade Sep. 2, 2008

2008-09-02T10:39:00.000-07:00

I am buying back some of my Sep. 26 puts on MER for 0.79 today. That means I already have 1% on the whole position from those.

Ryan

MER trade aug. 29, 2008

2008-08-29T10:26:00.000-07:00

I am selling the common of MER short at 28.14 and selling the Sep. 26 put for 1.01 cents. So I will get about 3.6% from the put in two weeks. If it expires in the money, then I will get something like 11.2% in 2 weeks.

Ryan

Observations on Aug. 26, 2008

2008-08-26T09:39:00.000-07:00

Several stocks I follow are showing unusual signs.

1.) Lehman has super low volume this morning.

2.) American Eagle Outfitters reported what many would view as a bad quarter and the stock is showing strength.

3.) MBI looks like it may be putting in a lower high (at 11 as opposed to it's recent high of 12). I will wait for confirmation.

Overall I don't buy this market rally, even though I do like some tech right now.

ryan

LEH and the one sided trade

2008-08-22T08:49:00.000-07:00

I must be getting boring to listen to. Every day I get on my computer and tell you guys how I am either holding my LEH puts or buying more LEH puts.

I am buying more today.

We have had half the investment world turn down buying anything from Lehman in the last month. Today one bank comes out and says it "might" buy Lehman. So what? I might buy Lehman too.

Here is my thesis. I am Dutch and Norwegian and there have to have been some very rich Dutch and Norwegian people at some point....one of them probably has a 15 billion dollar secret inheritance for me. With that money, I might buy Lehman.

peace, I am going to spend some of my secret inheritance on paintball and a cd by the knife.

Ryan

Bove on Lehman, ha ha ha ha

2008-08-21T11:42:00.000-07:00

Bove is wrong. He was just printed up on Reuters saying the stage is set for a hostile bid on LEH, because of valuations (specifically valuations of different parts of the company). What a joke.

Thanks Bove. I didn't expect to get some more puts today. but the price spike you just caused gave is giving me an opportunity.

Ryan

PS If anyone from Lehman reads this blog my sincerest apologies. I am sure many of you had nothing to do with the over leveraging of your firm into real-estate assets in a country with no real organic growth. In all honesty, my heart goes out to you.

CRM already!

2008-08-21T10:14:00.000-07:00

I covered half of my CRM position already! That was fast. I bought back one of my puts for 1.15 and bought back my shares for 54.51.

So, I was flat on my put and made 1.4% on my common so far.

I will hold more of my position, but when I am up 1.4% in a couple hours, I gotta take something. Maybe this will free me up to short some more later.

ryan

FSLR and CRM trades AUG. 21, 2008

2008-08-21T07:29:00.000-07:00

Update on my FSLR short. I got out of FSLR with a small profit on AUG. 18th. I caught a move from 265 to 259. The biggest reason that I got out was that I had a very fast profit and oil seemed to be stabilizing. It just looked risky that oil might cause FSLR to pop (as it did today). I am looking for another chance to get in short.

I started a hedged short position in CRM today. I shorted at 55.26 (which is lookin kinda ugly right now). I am late to the party on this one, but not too worried about it. This sell off is a real big uptrend breaker for CRM. I sold the Sep. 50 put for 1.15, to give myself some cushion.

Still holding steady on my LEH puts.

Ryan

LEH and MBI puts

2008-08-19T08:53:00.000-07:00

I am getting into Jan. 10 MBI puts today. The chart on MBI is starting to look sideways and I am willing to bet that will preclude it going down hard. There are so many people short this stock (I mean so so so many). Very little has changed in the horrible fundamental picture of MBIA. Still, the stock price has doubled and the volume is disappearing. This spells big downside.

I am starting to sell out of just a couple contracts of my LEH puts. I think they are worth holding, but I am up more than 70% on the Jan. 20 puts I am selling. So I have to take profit somewhere.

One sucky thing about today is that my COF puts are not looking good.

Ryan
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LEH, MS puts Aug. 18, 2008

2008-08-18T11:04:00.000-07:00

My bank puts are looking good today. It's 2pm at the exchanges, and we are already down 200 points on the DOW. For the first time I am not lightening up on puts during a 200 down day.

The DOW is breaking it's short-term trend line and looks to be breaking it's recent support. I just can't let go of my puts yet.

I specifically like my puts in LEH and MS. MS is the best because their level 3 assets to capital ratio is just friggin ominous.

Ryan

FSLR, short, AUG. 15, 2008

2008-08-15T11:52:00.001-07:00

Another chart that looks a little ominous. FSLR is overvalued even if oil goes back above 120. Had great earnings,popped, but didn't make a new high on the daily chart. Now it's not not even challenging the recent daily high. I think this one will take a big dive over the next 3 months.

So I am getting short today, but only 1/4 of the position I want. So I have time to add.

Ryan

XLF chart. failing to make new high

2008-08-15T08:13:00.000-07:00

The XLF is not making a new high today. If it fails here, I see it having some serious downside in the next week.

I covered my MS position for a small profit yesterday before the close (sold short at 40.26 and covered at 40.08). The trade lasted 17 minutes.

Ryan

MS short

2008-08-14T11:47:00.001-07:00

I am shorting the common of MS into the close today. I will try to cover with a profit right at the end of trading today. XLF broke 21 with increasing volume (that makes a significant lower high) So this is how I want to get some exposure to the late-day-sector-sell-off.

peace,
Ryan