tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-58327952009-02-21T01:26:54.006-05:00"Baseball Becomes Dull only to Dull Minds." - Red Smith, New York TimesMHSnoreply@blogger.comBlogger96125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-88460486787860260022007-09-14T08:15:00.000-04:002007-09-14T08:33:06.607-04:00

BRAA:Fielder: 41Wright: 42Hanley: 30Utley: 46Pujols: 38 Chipper: 40Byrnes: 22WPA/LIFielder: 4.50Wright: 4.40Hanley: 3.7Utley: 4.42Pujols: 3.44Chipper: 3.73Byrnes: 1.69Games Fielder: 142Wright: 143Hanley: 138Utley: 116Pujols: 142Chipper: 118Byrnes: 146Defense and positionFielder: negativeWright: small plusHanley: small negativeUtley: plusPujols: neutralChipper: neutralByrnes: neutralMy current

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-76214399267066964372007-07-04T10:17:00.000-04:002007-07-04T10:18:38.784-04:00

In the early 80's Bill James in one of his Baseball Abstracts unveiled what is called the Baseball's Pythagorean Winning Percentage. Baseball's Pythagorean Winning Percentage is a model which attempts to estimate a teams winning percentage by using runs scored and runs allowed as the inputs.The formula is simple yet accurate:Pythagorean Winning Percentage = Runs Scored^2 / (Runs Scored^2+Runs

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-25594204198760080042006-12-20T11:41:00.000-05:002006-12-20T11:50:58.806-05:00

Someday I'm going to get all of Angell's World Series write ups for the New Yorker. Until then I'll have to satisfy myself with the 3 that are online. 2003 - Gone South2004 - Long Voyage Home2005 - White Sox Nation

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-54244874801370253362006-12-19T20:34:00.000-05:002006-12-19T20:42:07.057-05:00

Anyway - I reran the same data except instead of looking at players who were better than Dontrell, I looked at guys who were slightly worse. The second selection of players won between 40-60 games by the end of their age 24 season and who prevented between 40-60 runs above above average.Jim Abbott 47 41Dan Petry 60 43Steve Carlton 47 43Kevin Millwood 40 43Steve Barber

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-21714790038004014622006-12-19T18:13:00.000-05:002006-12-19T18:19:20.121-05:00

I got into a conversation today about how special, from a historic standpoint Dontrell Willis is. Not only the charisma, and flamboyence, and ear to ear grin - but the results. At his age only a handful of pitchers have won as many games and prevented as many runs relative to average.WRSAADwight Gooden100116Bert Blyleven95171Frank Tanana84101Fernando Valenzuela7879Dennis Eckersley77112Gary

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-39706963448966827752006-12-19T16:00:00.000-05:002006-12-19T18:38:23.990-05:00

I saw this link on BBTF about the value of the Cards run game in 06 - it was a really well written article. According to the Bill James 2007 handbook, the Cardinals were also bad at running the bases beyond caught stealing and picked offs.Name RatingPreston Wilson -3Jim Edmonds -9Albert Pujols 13Scott Spiezio 2So Taguchi 0Aaron Miles -8Skip Schumaker N/AHector Luna -6Jeff Suppan N/ASidney Ponson

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-16319268237524517982006-12-19T13:58:00.000-05:002006-12-19T14:07:20.148-05:00

Dan Szymborski has posted his Mets projections at BBTF.Here are the outliers relative to Chone projections:First Last Chone OPS ZIPS OPS Difference AbsMichael Tucker* 0.67 0.732 0.062 0.062 Moises Alou 0.807 0.856 0.049 0.049 Paul Lo Duca 0.75 0.707 -0.043 0.043 Jose Reyes# 0.763 0.802 0.039 0.039 Ramon Castro 0.724 0.686 -0.038 0.038 Chris Woodward 0.65 0.62 -0.03 0.03 Edgardo Alfonzo 0.686

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-39470952489125193112006-12-19T10:21:00.000-05:002006-12-19T10:38:43.692-05:00

Last night the Tigers extended Jeremy Bonderman:One of baseball's most promising young pitchers, Bonderman agreed to a $38 million, four-year contract on Monday -- passing up a chance to become a free agent after the 2008 season...Bonderman gets $4.5 million next year, $8.5 million in 2008 and $12.5 million in each of the following two seasons.This looks like a tremendous deal for the Tigers as

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-53655651599692978022006-12-19T10:16:00.000-05:002006-12-19T10:19:37.782-05:00

I got this link for baseball musings So with all this competent pitching floating around in big league baseball's trade market, where were the Cincinnati Reds? They were announcing the re-signing of 37-year-old David Weathers.Whoopee.Often times when teams are on the fringe of the playoffs the previous year they are tempted to get ahead of themselves. Sometimes, that is the correct move when you

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-39106194363715583842006-12-19T10:03:00.000-05:002006-12-19T10:07:20.053-05:00

Alan Schwarz has a good interview with Lou Piniella up at Baseball America. If you don't subscribe you should.Piniella... With Kerry Wood, I talked to Kerry personally about the possibilities of moving into the bullpen. We felt he could stay healthier. We thought he could be more dominant. We told him we'd give him all the time in spring training he needed to make those adjustments. He was very

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-20876171464875485222006-12-19T09:35:00.000-05:002006-12-19T09:54:20.972-05:00

Kei Igawa, signed with the Yankees last night for 5 years, and 20m total. Igawa, who was posted last month for $25m, is the 3rd Japanese posted player to come to the states this year.Igawa, is the favorite to be the Yankees 5th starter this year after Tiger Wang, Mike Mussina, Andy Petite and Randy Johnson. Igawa's, translated projection is pretty good, Chone checks in with him showing an above

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-88074061633883001122006-12-17T21:46:00.000-05:002006-12-17T21:54:49.761-05:00

Good old Chone Smith at Anaheim Angels all the way was blogging a bunch today. The Limits of a Projection System - He determined the best possible correlation showed an r of 0.770Batted Ball Charts - He talks about Dan Fox's batted ball charting application. I was planning on playing around with it more than I have so far, but BR-PI has taken all my distraction time away.

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-21152953659340843742006-12-17T21:38:00.000-05:002006-12-17T21:40:44.724-05:00

Talking about the transaction I just posted about: Rob: Wow, you know what's really interesting about this transaction? I had no idea there are two Ross Gloads. The only Ross Gload I ever heard of is going to be 31 soon, and has a bright future as a first baseman in Class AAA. Exactly the sort of player the Royals have little (if any) use for.

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-23929875402486022362006-12-17T18:00:00.000-05:002006-12-17T18:20:06.762-05:00

Interesting trade yesterday as Royals made an inter division move sending lefthanded giant (6'10") Andy Sisco to the White Sox for bench player Ross Gload. The reason the trade is interesting is because the Royals organization is a very light on upside arms, but relatively deep in terms of depth of corner types. Alex Gordon, Mark Teehan, Mike Sweeney, Emil Brown, Billy Butler, Justin Huber,

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-90486816895235659232006-12-17T17:26:00.000-05:002006-12-17T17:45:51.012-05:00

Baseball Reference just went live with it's newest toy, Play Index. A searchable index which allows you to cull game level data rather than just season level data. The data was of course obtained from retrosheet. This is also the first part of baseball reference, that you need a subscription to fully use. I'll likely subscribe, as it's cheap and I've sponsored pages in the past.I've been

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-53738296537748682082006-12-16T11:59:00.000-05:002006-12-16T12:38:05.612-05:00

Yesterday, Vernon Wells signed a 7 year 126 million dollar deal with the Blue Jays:The extension calls for a $25.5 million signing bonus, payable in three $8.5 million installments each March 1 in 2008, 2009 and 2010. He will receive a salary of just $500,000 in 2008 and $1.5 million in 2009, but his salary jumps to $12.5 million in 2010 and $23 million in 2011. Wells receives $21 million in

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-22983661572434861942006-12-16T10:37:00.000-05:002006-12-16T11:03:47.576-05:00

Yesterday, the Red Sox added a couple of additional arms to their bullpen trading for veteran Brenden Donnelly and signing JC Romero.Romero, signed a 1 year deal for $1.5m, and Donnelly was acquired from the Angels for minor league veteran Phil Siebel. Siebel is actually a some what interesting arm. One year off of TJ surgery he locked very good in the minors, and his CHONE projections aren't

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-73952747271198715422006-12-15T15:20:00.000-05:002006-12-15T15:25:04.878-05:00

Clay Davenport has a great article titled: Team and Organizational Ages on baseball prospectus today.The methodology is sound, and the findings are:Youngest Org to Oldest org. I'm cutting out the data, since it is a pay article. Sea Chi Min Atl Laa Lad Col Ari Tex Tb Mil Cle Chw Stl Sd Bos Tor Fla Kc Hou Det Nym Nyy Oak Sf

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-81463976239940337562006-12-15T14:44:00.000-05:002006-12-15T15:17:03.577-05:00

Yesterday the Devil Rays came to terms with 27 year old Akinori Iwamura, a gold gloving winning thirdbase man who looks to be the Rays the starting starter for next season at the hot corner. The dollars are reasonable, and Iwamura projects according to CHONE to be around a league average thirdbaseman with the stick, which will be a nice addition to the Devil Rays.In Japan, his typical line looks

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-57906309954328659562006-12-15T14:20:00.000-05:002006-12-15T14:24:28.771-05:00

Bodog has released early odds on who wins the world series. Without doing the math, my early thoughts are that anything better than 12-1 is a suckers bet. The Rangers, Indians, Twins, Marlins, Brewers and the NL West look attractive, though I need to think about the collective odds of the AL central. Team OddsNew York Yankees 4/1New York Mets 6/1Boston Red Sox 8/1Chicago White

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-17183871755195335332006-12-14T12:09:00.000-05:002006-12-16T12:50:44.926-05:00

This article on fox sports puts the payout structure of the Matsuzaka deal at:Matsuzaka gets a $2 million signing bonus, $6 million next year, $8 million in each of the following three seasons and $10 million in each of the final two years.Using the good old HP12c calculator which has gotten me through many tough nights has puts the NPV at $92m.More projections:Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system checks

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-82267814777405499852006-12-14T08:49:00.000-05:002006-12-14T09:08:21.258-05:00

Last night a head scratchier of a trade was made as the Nationals sent 32 year old, and $8m dollar second baseman to the Mariners for 23 year old pitcher Emiliano Fruto and 25 year old Man of Glass Chris Snelling. The reason this is a head scratchier is taking Vidro away from the Nationals leaves them zero secondbasemen, and now gives the Mariners a second player at the Key Stone to add to Jose

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-713305258938885212006-12-13T14:36:00.000-05:002006-12-14T12:26:17.387-05:00

Jon Heyman from si.com is reporting that the Daisuke Matsuzaka negotiations are complete, and he will pitch for the Boston Redsox next six seasons for $52m, which brings the total cost to the RedSox for 6 years equal to $103m.What does $103m dollars buy you? According to Chone - the 4th best starting pitcher in baseball for next year:Pitcher Team IP* H* HR* BB* SO* ERA RSAASantana,Johan MIN 212

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-81231102643498646692006-12-13T11:54:00.000-05:002006-12-13T13:46:13.702-05:00

The Rockies very well may have just made the best trade in the history of their franchise. They just sent Jason Jennings to the Houston Astros for Jason Hirsh, Taylor Buchholz and Wily Taverez.Jennings, who will be 28 years old heading into next season was a wonderful pitcher for the Rockies last year and has 1 year remaining on his contract which is set to pay him $5.5m next season. Jennings

MHSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5832795.post-18138336885322300852006-12-13T10:58:00.000-05:002006-12-13T13:51:39.794-05:00

Last night the following players were not tendered contracts:American LeagueAngels: Jason Bulger, RHP.A's: Jerome Williams, RHP.Mariners: Joel Pineiro, RHP.Orioles: David Newhan, OF; Aaron Rakers, RHP; Todd Williams, RHP.Rangers: Mike Wood, RHP.Rays: Damon Hollins, OF.Royals: Scott Dohmann, RHP; Brandon Duckworth,RHP. Tigers: Alexis Gomez,OF. Twins: Luis Rodriguez, INF; Willie Eyre, RHP.White Sox

MHSnoreply@blogger.com