Mabblog

Polls!

2009-11-17T17:42:00.003+01:00

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Update:

Another poll from Angus Reid.

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Nov. 8	Sept. 28
Evo Morales	52%	47%
Manfred Reyes Villa	18%	16%
Samuel Doria Medina	9%	8%
Other candidates	4%	4%
Undecided / Blank vote	17%	25%

Source: Equipos MORI
Methodology: Interviews with 1,007 Bolivian adults, conducted Oct. 31 to Nov. 8, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Data in Angus Reid.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Oct. 2009	Sept. 2009
Evo Morales	52%	54%
Manfred Reyes Villa	21%	20%
Samuel Doria Medina	13%	11%
René Joaquino	3%	3%
Alejo Véliz	--	1%
Other / Blank ballot	11%	11%

Source: Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado / La Razón
Methodology: Interviews with 2,205 Bolivian adults, conducted Oct. 10 to Oct. 20, 2009. Margin of error is 2.45 per cent.

Data in Angus Reid.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

Evo Morales	52%
Manfred Reyes Villa	22%
Samuel Doria Medina	10%
René Joaquino	3%
Other / Blank ballot	13%

Source: Track / Unitel
Methodology: Interviews with 1,598 Bolivian adults, conducted Oct. 29 to Nov. 6, 2009. Margin of error is 2.4 per cent.

Oil and Gas Report 4Q

2009-10-20T11:58:00.002+02:00

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The research analysis website research and markets has published a report on Bolivia's Oil and Gas situation to the fourth quarter 2009. Of course, the entire report costs over €400, but one can take a glimpse on this website.

The report concludes: "Bolivia now shares seventh place with Ecuador in BMI’s Upstream Business Environment rating, four points behind Argentina but well ahead of Mexico. Its proven gas resources and gas reserves-toproduction ratio (RPR) work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by the state’s renewed control of assets, deteriorating licensing regime and generally unappealing risk environment. The country is at the foot of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its statecontrolled refining and marketing segment, modest capacity and less competitive environment, offset by a relatively low level of retail site intensity and the country’s gas self-sufficiency. Ecuador is immediately ahead of Bolivia in the regional rankings, but a wide gap exists between the two that is unlikely to be bridged by Bolivia at any point in the near future. "

New Poll Forecasting Morales' Win

2009-10-20T11:55:00.002+02:00

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Angus Reid published a new poll forecasting Morales' win in the next elections. He leads with extreme comfort. One caveat only, the undecided reach 25%.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

Evo Morales	47%
Manfred Reyes Villa	16%
Samuel Doria Medina	8%
Other candidates	4%
Undecided	25%

Source: Equipos MORI
Methodology: Interviews with 811 Bolivian adults, conducted Sept. 28 to Sept. 28, 2009. Margin of error is 3.3 per cent.

Elections 2009

2009-10-17T14:08:00.006+02:00

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The electoral process is advancing in Bolivia. It seems that Bolivians have gotten the hand of it and can carry out, in amazing speed, all kinds of elections. As you may know, on December 6 this year, Bolivians will, once again, go to the ballot boxes to cast votes on general elections to elect a new President, Vicepresident, Senators, and Deputies (Uninomial, Plurinominal and Indigenous Special Districts) for the now denominated: Plurinational Assembly.

The electoral court has just finished registering voters using a biometric system. There are, for this year, 4,997,172 registered voters. The distribution per department and country of immigration is the following:

REGISTRO POR DEPARTAMENTO

La Paz 1.468.569
Santa Cruz 1.159.343
Cochabamba 874.833
Potosí 343.016
Oruro 256.576
Tarija 255.300
Chuquisaca 254.727
Beni 180.481
Pando 33.824

REGISTRO POR PAÍS

Argentina 90.431
España 50.523
Brasil 18.618
Estados Unidos 10.931

For more see source: HoyBolivia.

As you may imagine, the electoral agency is very happy about this result. However, the process is not over yet. There are two dates to take into account. The first one is October 17, which is the deadline for candidates have to present a series of documentation to be accredited as official candidates. These people, those who do not meet the requirements, will not be included in the official lists and will not be able to be replaced either. However, they may be replaced by other people who do have their documents in order and are able to present them, at least 72 hours before the elections. The second date to take into account is November 2. Until that day, the electoral court will review the voter registry and will exclude or purge any irregular voter. That is know as depuracion in Bolivia.

The second date will present problems after the elections. That is tradition in Bolivia. The first date is already presenting trouble. According to El Diario (image source), 250 candidates across the board resigned to their candidacies.

This is supposedly making trouble even for MAS. But, the smaller parties are the ones suffering the most. MUSPA finds itself in a deep crisis. GENTE, for its part is struggling to stay on the race. Roman Loayza, former MAS leader and founder, wants to run for president with this party.

This, however, should soon come to an end. Better said, today at 0 hours the deadline will fall and all candidates should be official.

The Democratic Development Index: Bolivia

2009-10-13T16:17:00.004+02:00

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The Konrad Adenauer Foundation and Polilat.com have developed an index measuring the development of democracy in Latin America. The index, Democratic Development Index (DDI), measures that process in light of four dimensions: Basic conditions of democracy, respect for political rights and civil liberties, institutional quality and politic efficiency, exercise of the effective power to be able to govern (this last dimension is divided into two sub dimensions: capacity to generate well being policies and capacity to generate economic efficiency policies). The authors have published the results in the form of reports, which have been published since 2002.

The 2009 report finds Bolivia in last place, out of 18 Latin America countries. The explanation points to the relative better performance of other countries and the, again, relative worst performance in the institutional quality and political efficiency as well as in the capacity to generate social well being.

This report is a blow to the Bolivian government which has been wanting to portray that Bolivia is doing generally better than before (pre Morales), in democratic terms as well.

In comparison to other countries, the fact that Bolivia is doing worst than countries such as Venezuela, Honduras, and Guatemala, gives me something to think about. Taken with a bit of criticism, it might be in the way these authors measure the distinct dimensions. For one, it cannot be, the more I ponder, that Honduras scores better than Bolivia in the institutional quality and political efficiency dimension.

Just to put some more perspective, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy, finds Bolivia, worldwide, in 75th place as a flawed democracy for 2008. That is ahead of Nicaragua (78), Guatemala (79), Ecuador (88) and Venezuela (95). Honduras was placed 74 at the time. While Freedom House places Bolivia in the company of Paraguay, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala, as partly free countries. Another index, the Bartelsmann Transformation Index, ranks Bolivia below Nicaragua and Honduras, but above Guatemala, Ecuador and Venezuela.

So, what is the conclusion from all this? The conclusion is that it is very difficult to measure democracy. Who knows where Bolivia is on the average. The questions remain: is it a more democratic country? is democracy taking hold?

For what its worth, it is nice to see another index join the ranks, so to speak!

Popularity Polls

2009-10-10T16:34:00.001+02:00

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Angus Reid's latest polls...

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

Evo Morales	54%
Manfred Reyes Villa	20%
Samuel Doria Medina	11%
René Joaquino	3%
Alejo Véliz	1%
Other / Blank ballot	11%

Source: Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado / La Razón
Methodology: Interviews with 1,608 Bolivian adults, conducted Sept. 2 to Sept. 20, 2009. Margin of error is 2.45 per cent.

Angus Reid Reports on Evo's Popularity

2009-10-05T13:52:00.002+02:00

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Angus Reid published new numbers on Evo's popularity.

It looks like Evo is doing something right, or the opposition is doing everything wrong!

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Evo Morales’s performance as president?

	Sept. 2009	Jul. 2009	Apr. 2009
Approve	60%	57%	53%
Disapprove	36%	39%	43%

Source: Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado / La Razón
Methodology: Interviews with 1,024 Bolivian adults in La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz, conducted from Sept. 10 to Sept. 18, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

The Candidates Are Official

2009-09-08T18:33:00.005+02:00

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This is the list of candidates who will run for the Bolivian Presidency and Vicepresidency. Now, all can happen is that one of duos is disqualified for any reason.

The source article is to be found here.

Here is the whole list of candidates, as of September 8, 2009. This list could change if one of the candidates does not meet the requirements of the electoral court. For example, if he or she did not register to vote, or if he or she figures in another list, etc.

Here is a list for La Paz candidates.

Pre-Electoral Landscape

2009-09-06T18:04:00.004+02:00

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As we get closer to the December 6 general elections, the Bolivian pre-electoral landscape is sorting itself out and candidacies seem to be emerging. The main reason is the upcoming deadline (September 7) to register political alliances. In addition, the candidate lists for president, vicepresident and members of congress (plurinationals) have to be presented as well.

As many readers surely have already seen in the Bolivian press, the negotiations among opposition leaders have been, the past weeks, nothing short of frantic. The Frente Amplio (Ample Front) could not be realized in spite of all the meetings and negotiations among opposition leaders. According to many reports, regional politics have played a major roll in these negotiations. Not only among the various regions such as La Paz, Cochabamba, Tarija and Santa Cruz (to mention some) but also within the regions themselves. Different groups have been trying to gain political relevance in light of the lack in leadership in the opposition.

In particular, dissent and lack of compromise have proven damaging to articulate an opposition front able to dispute the country's leadership in the next elections. From the many meetings and negotiations covered by the press, it has become clear that the opposition is plagued by too many leaders who don't seem to want to give up political aspirations. In the last two weeks Samuel Doria Medina (UN), Victor Hugo Cardenas (Gente), German Antelo (MNR), Manfred Reyes Villa (NFR), Rene Joaquino (AS), Alejo Veliz and Roman Loayza (the last two former MAS leaders) have declared themselves candidates. In La Paz, the discrepancies have been the strongest. To the dispute about who will make a good candidate, Cardenas has been confronted with political analyst and journalist Jimena Costa. The latter was suggested by one of the major paceno political forces, Plan Progeso's Jose Luis Paredes. It became later clear that the disagreement was concentrated on the making of the members of congress plurinational lists. The opposition's opium has been access to power.

However, within the las three days, Manfred Reyes Villa has been able to capitalize on one politically advantageous move, i.e. the nomination of former Pando Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez as his running mate. Fernandez has been in jail accused, by the government, for masterminding the Porvenir killings. The move is politically shrewd because many Bolivians think that Fernandez has been unjustly jailed, not because there is prof of his innocence, but because of the way the government has acted in his case. He was basically kidnapped and jailed before he was judged guilty. The Reyes Villa-Fernandez duo has attracted much support. Some of the groups already in camp are: Jose Luis Paredes, German Antelo, Mario Cossio, Sabina Cuellar, maybe even Rene Joaquino. The alliance name will be Plan Progreso para Bolivia - Convergencia Nacional (PPB-CN).

Other two candidacies are in the game as opposition. First, with the UN, Samuel Doria Medina and Gabriel Halbing Arauz (former union leader in Santa Cruz), with support of Oscar Ortiz, the Senate President. The other is AS with Rene Joaquino and Carlos Suarez (former evangelical priest). The government is currently in a comfortable position due to its poll showings in the upper 40s. Morales is in the middle of his campaign and the implementation of his electoral strategy to get the super majority in both chambers of congress.

Lastly, nothing is set on stone yet. The pieces could be reordered still as two more important dates are coming. The first one (October 17) is the deadline for the parties to present all the requirements confirming the candidates fulfill, again, all the requirements. The second date is November 21, which is the last day anyone can file an appeal to invalidate the accreditation of a candidate. After this last date, there won't be going back.

Bolivian Urbanites Will Vote for Morales?

2009-09-04T13:49:00.003+02:00

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Another poll attempting to measure the level of support for Morales (Angus Reid). Strong support for Morales!

Polling Data

Which candidate would you vote for in the presidential election?

Evo Morales	57.7%
Samuel Doria Medina	9.7%
Manfred Reyes Villa	8.6%
Jorge Quiroga	7.2%
Víctor Hugo Cárdenas	4.5%
René Joaquino	3.5%
Germán Antelo	1.5%
Jimena Costa	1.2%

Source: Encuestas & Estudios Gallup International
Methodology: Interviews with 3,860 Bolivian adults, conducted from Aug. 5 to Aug. 22, 2009. Margin of error is 2.27 per cent.

Morales: The Best President Since 1982

2009-08-31T13:08:00.003+02:00

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Angus Reid published again a poll citing the popularity of Evo Morales. According to the poll, Morales is the best Bolivian president since democracy returned to the country. The poll asks Bolivians who they think has been the best president since 1982. Not surprisingly, the result is 41% of the people think Evo Morales is the best president. Is not surprising because around 60% of the population identify themselves as indigenous (2001 census), and if Morales' strongest appeal is being of indigenous descent, the poll is right on. Well, very close, at least.

In addition, this poll represents mostly an urban opinion. If the pollsters would think of going to the country side, I think the percentage would rise a bit more.

Who do you think has been the best president since the return of democracy on October 10, 1982?

Evo Morales	41%
Víctor Paz	24%
Carlos Mesa	5%
Hugo Banzer	5%
Jaime Paz	5%
Jorge Quiroga	3%
Eduardo Rodríguez	2%
Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada	0%

Source: Equipos MORI / Poder y Placer
Methodology: Interviews with 2,100 Bolivian adults in Cochabamba, El Alto, La Paz, Santa Cruz, and Tarija, conducted in July 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

UNASUR Summit 2009

2009-08-29T23:02:00.002+02:00

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The UNASUR met in Bariloche, Argentina, on August 28, 2009. The first picture presents the heads of state. The following pictures show the proceedings. The result of the meeting was a declaration of the South American region as a "region of peace". They also expressed their rejection of military forces that may threat any nation in the region.

The images are from the ABI.

Here you can find some graphics that show the various integration projects in South America. Here is the first graph and here is the second graph. Here is the source.

MAS Strategy to Win the Next General Elections

2009-08-27T22:05:00.005+02:00

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Until now, MAS and the Morales government have only reached part of their political goals. The historic win in 2005 has marked only the beginning. These last four years have made it clear, for Morales and his supporters in government, that it is not enough to win the Executive power. In order to make the planned changes MAS needs to control Congress and the courts.

One important step forward has been taken by passing the new constitution in early 2008. The text incorporates some, not all, of the changes desired. But, how to implement such changes when the government only controls the Executive? As stated, the last four years have shown that it would be near to impossible to do that without majority support in Congress.

Therefore, the most important task for MAS and Morales for the December elections is to win a majority in Congress. But how to do that?

As far as I can see, MAS has been preparing for this for a long time. One first step was the ID issuing program, where the government went to the people to give them IDs. A second step was to use the old voter registration list for the coming elections. However, this was not possible. Now, the government is preparing its candidate lists and is also moving voters to regions where it needs to gain votes.

The latter move is rather obvious. Good, the government wants to provide a better life for poor people by moving them to border regions and give them land. But, why now? Why can't it wait until the conditions are given? By conditions I mean housing with the necessary conditions to live. This move is very suspect, is it not?

As for the preparation of candidate lists, MAS is betting that it already has a significant number of uninominal (district) candidates in its camp. It just needs to place its people in the plurinominal lists. That way, MAS makes sure that the people who land in Congress do as the party leadership says.

This is a list of the people who will fill the MAS candidate lists:

From the government: Walker San Miguel (Ministry of Defense), Héctor Arce (Minister of Defense for the Legal Nationalization), Luis Arce Catacora (Minister of Economy and Finances), Sacha Llorenti (Viceminister of Coordination with the Social Moviement), Wilfredo Chávez (Viceminister of Governmental Coordination, Óscar Coca (Minister of Hidrocarbons), Juan Ramón Quintana (Minister of the Presidency), Ramiro Tapia (Minister of Health), Rebeca Delgado (former Viceminister of Governmental Coordination).

Social Movements Leaders: Isaac Ávalos (CSUTCB), Fidel Surco (Conalcam), Édgar Patana (COR).

Former members of the Constituent Assembly: Raúl Prada, David Herrada, Feliciano Vegamonte, Jorge Alvarado y Silvia Lazarte.

Members of Congress: René Martínez, José Pimentel, Félix Rojas, Jorge Silva y César Navarro.

These are people who have already proven themselves in the Morales government. These are the people who will fill the new Plurinational Congress and will give the government green light.

Sources: Here, here.

Morales With a Large Advantage

2009-08-24T12:10:00.002+02:00

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The latest poll (again, only conducted in large urban areas), published by Angus Reid, shows Morales has a large advantage against his opponents.

As you can see in the below table, 43% of the people would vote for Morales. This shows that the opposition has a lot of work in front of them and that the work, done until now, has not been efficient.

Personally, I don't think there is a candidate in the opposition that could stand up against Morales in the next elections. Even Jimena Costa, who has been said to be the most promising, will not be able to drive people away from Morales' side.

I think the opposition needs someone from the rural areas, preferable a woman with a strong character who is able to answer to Morales' comments and does not represent in any way the "traditional", "neoliberal", "corrupt", "elitist", "I am better than you", "servant of the empire", "urbanite", kind of candidate image. Someone who can look at Morales straight in his face and tell him, this is what you are doing wrong, and this is what we need to do instead. He needs to be attacked on his weak sides, such as his authoritarian tendencies, and he needs to be reminded of what he said and what he is doing now.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

Evo Morales	43%
Víctor Hugo Cárdenas	11%
Manfred Reyes Villa	10%
Samuel Doria Medina	9%
René Joaquino	4%

Links to Recent Laws Concerning Elections and Autonomies

2009-08-14T08:32:00.003+02:00

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The following are links to the laws providing the framework for the December national elections and the autonomic referenda scheduled to happen on the same day.

This link points to the provisional electoral code (Law No. 4021) which regulates the coming elections in December. This is the point of reference for future actions concerning the electoral process and the autonomic referenda for La Paz, Potosi, Oruro, Sucre y Cochabamba (those departments that do not have autonomic statutes yet.

This link points to the Decree (Presidential Decree No. 0231) that regulates the process by which indigenous, originary and campesino municipalities become autonomic.

The last link points to the future and, as of now, suggested bill or law regulating the autonomy and decentralization process. If passed in Congress, this bill will become the reference for these two processes.

Pando Vote History

2009-08-13T23:56:00.005+02:00

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Pando's voting history. It's voted against MAS persistently. The civic leaders want now to take the government to court to stop, what they call, the government's efforts to change the voting pattern in Pando. The government has been transporting (by now around 700 men) immigrants to Pando so settle the border region to make Bolivia's borders more secure, so they say. The Pando civic leaders want to call on Article 202 of the Electoral Code to stop the government. The article says that it is illegal to massively transport citizens for electoral purposes. We'll se if Pando will come through with this new development.

Source: La Razon.

The Bolivian Opposition: There Are 12 Candidates Plus Morales

2009-08-13T22:53:00.004+02:00

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The opposition to Evo Morales has been unable to come up with one candidate to confront him in the next national elections coming December 6. After many meetings, conversations, dinners, and negotiations, the many political leaders could not agree on one candidate to unite the opposition. Many options were handled, there was the talk of a woman, such as the journalist Jimena Costa, or the possibility of another indigenous leader. Actually, these were seen, also by political commentators, as the only possible candidates that could run against Morales and have a chance to win. The other candidates are too identified with most of the traditional political parties which took part in government in the last periods before Morales. They were one of the reasons why Morales won.

Now, the opposition could not unite and most of the "traditional" leaders have chosen to declare themselves official candidates. Perhaps, they want to gain some more power to negotiate more gains, before they really pick a candidate. So now, there are so far, 13 candidates. The list follows:

Evo Morales and Alvaro Garcia
Victor Hugo Cardenas (made it official on August 12)
Samuel Doria Medina (UN) (made it official on August 12)
Jorge Quiroga (Podemos) (made it official on August 13)
Manfred Reyes Villa (...) (will make it official on August 25)
German Antelo (MNR) (announced he is looking for a vice president on August 12)
Rene Joaquino (AS) (already in the race)
Alejo Veliz (Pueblos Unidos por la Libertad y Soberanía - Pulso) (will announce August 15)
Hugo San Martin (Alianza por el Verdadero Cambio Democrático - AVCD)
Roman Loayza
Peter Maldonado (dissident Deputy of the UN)
Ana Maria Flores (NFR Senator) (August 22 will present her list)
Juan Choque (Causa por Bolivia)

September 7 is the deadline for candidates to present their lists and formalize their candidacy. So there is still time for the opposition to pull together and pick a candidate. So far, we have to still wait for what is coming.

Source: La Razon article.

Poll Numbers

2009-08-10T11:36:00.001+02:00

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Here are the poll results from Angus Reid. According to AR this time, Morales is gaining support as Bolivians march ahead towards a very important elections date.

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Evo Morales’s performance as president?

	Jul. 2009	Apr. 2009	Mar. 2009
Approve	57%	53%	49%
Disapprove	39%	43%	48%

Source: Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado / La Razón
Methodology: Interviews with 1,044 Bolivian adults in La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz, conducted from Jul. 8 to Jul. 20, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Elections Poll

2009-08-05T11:45:00.005+02:00

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I came accross this site where a group of Bolivian university students (from UMSA, La Paz, San Simon, Cochabamba, and Gabriel Rene Moreno, Santa Cruz) is posting a survey on political popularity and the chances Morales and company have in the coming December elections.

The students are doing a remarcable job at not just surveying but also analyzing the results.

Below you can see some slides as results, but I suggest to pay them a visit to see the whole presentation.

According to the survey, Morales a 44% approval rate and a 35% disapproval rate. There is not a bit of change in approval compared to the survey published by Angus Reid GM. What is interesting to me in these results are the percentage of people not decided yet (55%) versus the already decided (38%). If I remember correctly, for the last elections, there were many more people decided who to vote for at this stage of the game.

These other two images I see as a preliminary list of candidates. Of course some names have already changed. For example, the name of the new possible opposition candidate (Jimena Costa) is not included and it doesn't take into account that Roman Loayza has just lost its party and therefore its support (Muspa).

Decree for Indigenous Autonomies

2009-08-04T12:16:00.004+02:00

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This is the decree that sets up the framework for the indigenous autonomy process. The government issued this decree and presented a bill proposal to be approved by Congress.

DECRETO SUPREMO PARA LAS AUTONOMÍAS INDÍGENAS
El presidente Evo Morales Ayma, en Consejo de Ministros decreta:
Artículo 1. El presente decreto supremo tiene por objeto reglamentar la disposición final tercera de la Ley 4021 (de Régimen Electoral Transitorio) del 14 de abril de 2009, estableciendo los requisitos y procedimientos para la convocatoria y realización del referendo municipal de consulta para adoptar la condición de autonomía indígena originaria campesina a realizarse el 6 de diciembre de 2009.

Artículo 2. Voluntad autonómica. El referendo municipal citado en el artículo precedente establecerá la voluntad de los pobladores del municipio para adoptar la condición de autonomía indígena originaria campesina y sólo servirá como tales una vez aprobados sus estatutos autonómicos.

Artículo 3. Derechos propietarios y territoriales. La adopción de la condición de autonomía indígena originaria campesina de un municipio no modifica de ninguna manera los derechos de propiedad existentes en la jurisdicción.

Artículo 4. Límites de los municipios que adoptarán la condición de autonomía indígena originaria campesina. Los municipios que hubiesen adoptado la condición de autonomía indígena originaria campesina resultantes de la aplicación del procedimiento establecido en el presente decreto supremo deberán mantener los límites territoriales reconocidos a los municipios antes de adquirir la condición de autonomía indígena.

Artículo 5. Requisitos. Los requisitos para realizar el referendo municipal de consulta sobre la adopción de condición de autonomía indígena originaria campesina a realizarse el 6 de diciembre de 2009 son: 1) certificación del Ministerio de Autonomías sobre los siguientes aspectos: a) jurisdicción actual del municipio y correspondencia histórica a la territorialidad de los pueblos originarios que lo habitan; b) la existencia de estos pueblos que sean una existencia precolonial; y c) que la población indígena del municipio comparta identidad cultural, idioma, tradición histórica, territorialidad, cosmovisión y organización o instituciones jurídicas, políticas, sociales y económicas propias. El referendo (inaudible) del Concejo Municipal por dos tercios de votos.

Artículo 6. Procedimiento ante el Ministerio de Autonomías.
Parágrafo I. El Concejo Municipal, Alcalde o solicitantes del referendo, por iniciativa popular solicitarán de forma escrita al Ministerio de Autonomías la certificación descrita en el artículo precedente desde la fecha de aprobación del presente decreto hasta el día 24 de agosto de 2009 impostergablemente, adjuntando información requerida en el formulario de información especial para adquirir la condición de autonomía indígena que en anexo forma parte del presente decreto.
Parágrafo II. El Ministerio de Autonomías notificará hasta el día 4 de septiembre de 2009 a la Corte Nacional Electoral (CNE) con las resoluciones ministeriales referidas en el artículo cinco del presente decreto supremo.

Artículo 7. Procedimiento ante el Órgano Electoral.
Parágrafo I. La Corte Nacional Electoral y las cortes departamentales electorales serán los órganos competentes para la revisión de libros de apoyo al referendo municipal por iniciativa popular, en el marco de las competencias descritas en el Código Electoral y su reglamentación.
Parágrafo II. El procedimiento de verificación de libros por iniciativa popular se sustanciará y concluirá en el plazo de 15 días calendario, computables a partir de la presentación a la Corte Departamental Electoral competente.
Parágrafo III. El Concejo Municipal emitirá ordenanza municipal que de acuerdo a lo previsto en el numeral dos del artículo cinco del presente decreto.
Parágrafo IV. El gobierno municipal solicitante deberá notificar con la ordenanza municipal de convocatoria al referendo a la Corte Departamental correspondiente y a la Corte Nacional Electoral hasta el día 4 de septiembre de 2009.
Parágrafo V. La Corte Nacional Electoral publicará, de acuerdo a su cronograma, el listado de municipios en los que se llevará a cabo el referendo del 6 de diciembre de 2009.

Artículo 8. Iniciativa Popular. A los efectos de la emisión de la ordenanza municipal de la convocatoria a referendo, previamente se deberá cumplir con lo establecido en el parágrafo dos del artículo seis de la Ley 2769 del 6 de julio de 2004, del referendo.

Artículo 9. Pregunta. El referendo municipal objeto del presente decreto supremo tendrá la siguiente pregunta: ¿está usted de acuerdo con que su municipio adopte la condición de autonomía indígena originaria campesina de acuerdo a los alcances y preceptos establecidos en la Constitución Política del Estado?

Artículo 10. De la papeleta del referendo. En la parte superior se consignará el nombre del municipio donde se realiza el referendo, en el centro se consignará la pregunta específica y en la parte inferior las dos casillas con las opciones del sí o del no. Las demás características formales y de seguridad serán definidas por la CNE.

Artículo 11. Decisión del referendo. La decisión del referendo se adoptará por mayoría simple de votos válidos de la respectiva circunscripción y tendrá validez si participa al menos el 50% del electorado habilitado.

Artículo 12. Elección de autoridades. La elección de autoridades municipales del 4 de abril de 2010 en aquellos municipios que hayan decidido, mediante referendo, adoptar la condición de autonomía indígena originaria campesina deberá supeditarse a norma expresa emitida al efecto.

Artículo 13. Financiamiento. Se autoriza al Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas Públicas debitar de las cuentas de los municipios en los que se realizan el referendo municipal los recursos financieros necesarios para llevar a cabo el mismo en el marco de lo establecido en la Ley 2769.

Los ministros de Estado en los despachos de Economía y de Autonomía, y el presidente de la Corte Nacional Electoral quedan encargados de la ejecución y cumplimiento del presente decreto.

(Fuente: transcripción de la lectura del decreto supremo efectuada por el ministro Carlos Romero).

Source: Cambio.com

The Race to the December Elections

2009-07-10T12:23:00.002+02:00

MABB © ®

The electoral court signed the contract with NEC-Argentina SA., for the implementation of the biometric vote for the coming December 6 general elections. The contract represents 21 million dollars. The CNE (Corte Nacional Electoral) wants to start registering voters by August 1. For that it needs to deliver the equipment to the 9 departmental courts by July 25. It is calculated that around 10,000 people will work to register all voters at the national level. The government liberated the CNE of 44 million dollars of import taxes to bring the equipment to Bolivia.

What a race!

Sources: La Razon, CNE.

Popularity Polls from Angus Reid

2009-07-10T11:43:00.002+02:00

MABB © ®

This is the new poll conducted by Bolivian pollster firm, Apoyo, Opinion y Mercado, for many, among them Angus Reid Global Monitor. BTW, ARGM are a good source to track polls in Bolivia, I think, for the last few years.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Jun. 2009	Apr. 2009
Evo Morales	44%	41%
Víctor Hugo Cárdenas	8%	7%
Samuel Doria Medina	7%	n.a.
Rubén Costas	6%	5%
Jorge Quiroga	5%	6%
Manfred Reyes Villa	5%	n.a.
Carlos Mesa	n.a.	7%
Other / Undecided	25%	34%

Source: Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado / ATB
Methodology: Interviews with 2,177 Bolivian adults in La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz, conducted from Jun. 5 to Jun. 12, 2009. Margin of error is 2.1 per cent.

Though the numbers above do not say anything, in my opinion, is good to keep them as public record.

Interview with a Legar Advisor of the Hondurean Military

2009-07-09T14:16:00.002+02:00

MABB © ®

This is an interview with the legal adviser of the Honduran military. He talks about why the military acted as it did. He also touches on the regional patter Chavez used to cope power.

Read here.

Elections 2009

2009-07-08T15:04:00.003+02:00

René Joaquino • First candidate to announce he is running.

Román Loayza • Former MAS leader.

Víctor Hugo Cárdenas • Former Vicepresident will announce his candidacy end of July.

Alejo Véliz • Already in campaign.

Manfred Reyes Villa • Former Cochabamba Prefect, allied with promising young politician, Adriana Gil and with Marcial Fabricano.

Hugo San Martín • Has support from the middle class, will announce later.

Conalde • Opposition prefects work on a political formula and a candidate.

Óscar Ortiz • Senate President and former Podemos member wants to run.

Podemos • This Citizen Gruoup wants to support Jorge Quiroga for president.

Peter Maldonado • Former UN militant seeks political backing.

MIR - NSD • The remake of MIR is seeking an identity, a candidate and support (possible leader Rodrigo Paz, son of former party leader, Jaime Paz).

MNR • Seeking alliances and candidates.

Felipe Quispe • El Mallku wants to run against Evo.

About Indigenous Collective Rights and Lat Am - EU Relations

2009-06-12T14:00:00.003+02:00

MABB © ®
Derechos colectivos y Derechos individuales, Carlos Malamud
Infolatam, Madrid, 10 de junio de 2009

"La importancia de estos dos testimonios viene dada por el hecho de que no se trata de manifestaciones de dirigentes marginales, o de grupos minoritarios o periféricos, sino de un movimiento, como el MAS, que ostenta el gobierno de su país. A estas cuestiones hay que sumar el tema cada vez más preocupante de los castigos físicos inflingidos al amparo de los “usos y costumbres tradicionales” y que suelen encontrar el amparo de la justificación en criterios multiculturales. Si las leyes de los estados deben ser limitadas por los derechos de los indígenas, cuáles son los límites que éstos, a su vez, deben tener. ¿O acaso, por el mero hecho de ser derechos indígenas, y teóricamente colectivos, son ilimitados y están fuera del alcance y del control de las instituciones y la justicia nacionales? El futuro de la gobernabilidad de algunos países latinoamericanos se juega en torno a estas cuestiones, ya que las resoluciones de Naciones Unidas y otros organismos internacionales que reivindican los derechos colectivos de los pueblos indígenas no entraron a fondo en ellas. Es hora de que se acometa una revisión a fondo de los acuerdos, ya que, de otro modo, la destrucción de algunas sociedades está a la vuelta de la esquina, en un mundo donde las leyes de las mayorías y las minorías no están claras y donde la sola matemática no basta para resolver los conflictos."

Read the article here.

España impulsará un "salto cualitativo" en los lazos UE-América Latina en 2010 Infolatam/Efe
Montevideo, 11 de junio de 2009

"Queremos que sea una presidencia muy latinoamericana, con un fuerte impacto en el fortalecimiento de las relaciones entre Europa y América Latina", explicó De Laiglesia, quien subrayó que en esta gira por el Cono Sur pudo recabar "las opiniones y el consejo" de las Cancillerías de esos tres países al respecto.

Read the article here.