Tyler's Weather Blog

Tropical Storm Danny

2009-08-26T13:17:00.003-04:00

This weekend is not looking great at this point. We have a new tropical system forming east of the Bahamas, and it is expected to scoot by the outer banks of NC before impacting southern New England. The exact track is not yet known, but there is high confidence on the cone track as shown below. The center of the storm, with winds likely over 50mph, could pass anywhere between southeastern CT and Cape Cod, MA. Waves will be a danger along with viscous rip currents. Flooding will be the main concern over inland areas, as upwards of 2"-4" could fall, all depending on the final track the storm takes.

Heavy Storms to the West

2009-07-24T21:08:00.001-04:00

Here is the current radar.

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Forecast Update: Precipitation Not as Intense

2009-07-23T20:36:00.001-04:00

The precipitation is falling at lower rates than originally thought, and therefore, the totals will be slightly less. Here is an updated map:

Heavy Rain Overnight Thursday, Tapering Friday

2009-07-23T14:21:00.003-04:00

A storm with tropical origins will ride just east of the area tonight, delivering gusty winds and heavy rains. The total rainfall forecast is below, and for Bristol, I expect about 2" of rain. Some roads may become flooded around Bristol by midday Friday after all the runoff has made it into area rivers and streams.

Tropical Moisture Bombards Area Friday

2009-07-22T20:05:00.001-04:00

Here is the forecast:

Stormy Skies Saturday Evening

2009-07-10T19:26:00.004-04:00

Watch out for showers and thundershowers as you head outside later on Saturday. An approaching cold front will bring rainy weather to the greater Bristol area overnight Saturday. If traveling to the north or west, watch out for potential severe weather during the day on Saturday.

Severe t'storms, hail tomorrow

2009-06-29T17:35:00.000-04:00

A strong upper level low sitting over the Great Lakes is providing a cold pool aloft with 500mb temperatures around -15C. The low is generating a 40kt mid level southwesterly jet across the northeast while a 995mb surface low produces southerly / south-southeasterly flow into southern New England. Abundant low level moisture combined with periods of sunshine tomorrow will destabilize the atmosphere with afternoon surface CAPE of 1000J/kg to 1500J/kg. This is a classic set up for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms to the southeast of the upper low, intersecting the low level jet. In this case, the severe threat area extends across most of New York State into western and southern New England.

With the deep cold pool aloft, the primary threat with any thunderstorms will be large hail. Damaging wind gusts are also possible and depending on the extent of the easterly component on the low level winds, we could see a tornado or two develop.

Medium chance of development

2009-06-26T15:09:00.002-04:00

There is a new invest out there. This system is firing up some good convection, and I would say development of this system is likely.

Lets discuss Track and strength of this new invest.

My cone for this system is very wide, because this system hasn't developed yet, so we can't really be sure where it is going to head, but a track into the Gulf of Mexico is pretty much certain. Once this system gets into the Gulf of Mexico, I would say the steering currents are going to be very weak, and will allow this system to sit and strengthen due to the increasingly favorable conditions for development that is forecast.

I do expect this system to become Ana, and I do expect it to possibly become a hurricane, but we can definately not be sure of that.

Another update soon!

Zack Cooper

With summer comes thunderstorms

2009-06-25T17:19:00.000-04:00

Summer weather arrived today as the pesky ocean storm that was holding clouds and cold temperatures over the region has finally moved away. Low level moisture is very well established, with dew points in the 60's across the region. High temperatures have reached the low 80's over western New England and a few 90's have shown up southwest across Pennsylvania. All in all, this spells instability. CAPE has reached 1500 to 2000J/kg further west this afternoon. Low pressure entering Quebec is dragging a cold front across the eastern Great Lakes. A prefrontal trough is already the focus for a solid complex of severe storms over western New York with single cell storms popping up further east. These will tend to wane in strength with the loss of daytime heating, however there is still the chance for a shower and/or some thunder later tonight around midnight to 1am.

We will see an increase in clouds Friday morning as the cold front approaches the region. The timing of the front will largely dictate the severity of storms that develop. An early passage will result in limited time for destabilization, and vice versa. We will see an increase coverage of thunderstorms toward the early afternoon, with showers and storms becoming likely over western New England by 1pm, spreading to eastern areas by 4pm.

Winds will be unidirectional west-southwest with height with about 30kts of speed shear. This will support primarily damaging wind potential, although small hail cannot be ruled out further west, closer to the mid level cold pool.

The severe threat should end over western New England by 6pm, eastern zones 9pm.

Not much out there

2009-06-16T13:54:00.001-04:00

A couple of tropical waves, but nothing too serious.

I do not expect any of these waves to develop at this time,

I will post if something develops this season.

Rainy Week Ahead

2009-05-04T17:16:00.002-04:00

With the exception of Wednesday, this week will be quite wet and dreary.

Right now, we have a batch of light-moderate steady rain working in our direction.

Rain Finally Tapering, Fantastic Weekend Ahead

2009-04-22T20:02:00.004-04:00

After quite a few days of dreary conditions, the upper-level low is finally beginning to push east of the region, which will lead to improving weather. On SkyAlert HD Doppler, only a few scattered showers remain around the area.

This weekend, a strong "Bermuda high" will set up off of the Atlantic coast, pumping in the heat from the southern United States. We could reach 90 degrees on Sunday if the winds are light enough, and cloud cover doesn't build in - which is nearly a guarantee at this point. Below is a taste-of-summer! Enjoy the weekend.

Excellent Weather Thursday

2009-04-01T23:38:00.002-04:00

Here is the very mild Thursday forecast map:

Possible Tornado in New Jersey - Approaching CT

2009-03-29T20:06:00.001-04:00

On Doppler Radar, a clear hook echo is now visible in NE NJ. This storm cell is moving towards the state of CT, so state tuned for further updates.

Severe Thunderstorms Approaching

2009-03-29T20:00:00.000-04:00

Within the next few hours, be prepared for torrential downpours with some rumbles of thunder. Although I don't expect any severe weather in our immediate area, a tornado warning was issued earlier for PA and now a hook echo appears to be forming just north and west of NYC.

More graphics soon.

Tonight's Forecast

2009-03-26T20:23:00.000-04:00

Severe Weather in Tornado Alley, Moderating Temperatures

2009-03-24T18:59:00.003-04:00

The south-central U.S. will be dealing with severe weather over the next few days, meanwhile, Bristol will see moderating temperatures over the next few days.

Strong storm out west as seen on the WRF model:
As we get into Friday, a disturbance will pass though. Expect a dreary start to the day with passing rain showers. This will likely be the warmest day of the week, however, thick clouds may linger too long for us to really soar past 60 degrees. My current prediction is that temperatures will max out between 55 and 60 degrees on Friday. Of course, the variation accounts for different elevations throughout the area.

Mild Weather, Welcome Spring!

2009-03-06T14:39:00.003-05:00

The Shorts & Sun Special Edition Forecast
All This Spring - Coming Soon to Email Subscribers

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny with springtime warmth. Rain overnight. Highs 60-65.

SUNDAY: Times of clouds and sun. Highs 59-64.

Spring Conditions this Weekend

2009-03-04T22:10:00.002-05:00

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High: 55

SUNDAY: Clouds with peaks of sun. Strong southwesterly flow. High: 68

Final Snowfall Forecast

2009-03-01T16:44:00.001-05:00

Here is my final map for tonight's major nor'easter. Expect 8"-12" here in Bristol, with strong winds and blowing snow. The school forecast will be issued very soon.

Snowfall Map Update

2009-03-01T09:33:00.002-05:00

Well, I think it's safe to say that the biggest snowstorm of the year is on tap for tonight and tomorrow. The snow will fall heavy tomorrow morning during the "commute" - that is, if there is one. In Bristol, expect about 12" of powder. This will be the same story throughout the region.

TOTAL SNOWFALL PROJECTION:

TRAVEL IMPACTS MONDAY:

FutureCast Has Very Heavy Snow

2009-02-28T18:27:00.002-05:00

Here is what FutureCast, a computer model, projects for the total snow accumulations. The darkest blue area is 14"-16". However, I think that area will see more like 12" for a snow total.

FUTURECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL:

MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY:

Major Winter Storm on the Way

2009-02-28T15:42:00.003-05:00

On Sunday, expect some passing snow showers with little or no accumulation. The main event will be in here for Sunday Night and through the day on Monday. Yes, this storm could potentially be the biggest snow producer of the season. The track will still have to be tweaked a bit on Sunday, but as of now I think many areas in Connecticut will easily surpass one foot of powder. Stay tuned to Tyler's Weather for continuing non-stop coverage through the weekend. Plus, my school forecast will be out tomorrow afternoon.

TRAVEL IMPACTS MONDAY:

TOTAL SNOWFALL BY MONDAY EVENING:

Wow! Quite a shift in Tonight's GFS Model Run

2009-02-27T22:59:00.003-05:00

It now looks like the second low pressure system, that is the Monday one, will rob the Sunday storm of energy. I may have to lower the snow amounts to 0"-2" if this continues to verify tomorrow. However, do not think that we would be out of the woods if I lower the totals. Now, it appears we will be dealing with a significant winter storm in New England on Monday, with a mixture of snow and sleet on the south coasts and all snow once you head far enough north and west. Here is the scenario map from earlier:

Preliminary Sunday Snowfall Forecast

2009-02-27T15:42:00.003-05:00

Here is my first forecast for the Sunday snow. Expect the snow to develop by midnight on Saturday/Sunday, and continue through late morning here in Bristol. Total snow accumulations will be 2"-4". The snow will be wet and heavy to clear away.