<?xml version='1.0' encoding='UTF-8'?><?xml-stylesheet href="http://www.blogger.com/styles/atom.css" type="text/css"?><feed xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom' xmlns:openSearch='http://a9.com/-/spec/opensearchrss/1.0/' xmlns:georss='http://www.georss.org/georss'><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464</id><updated>2009-11-04T07:30:41.474-08:00</updated><title type='text'>Washington's Blog</title><subtitle type='html'>@</subtitle><link rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/'/><link rel='hub' href='http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/'/><link rel='next' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default?start-index=26&amp;max-results=25'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email></author><generator version='7.00' uri='http://www.blogger.com'>Blogger</generator><openSearch:totalResults>1243</openSearch:totalResults><openSearch:startIndex>1</openSearch:startIndex><openSearch:itemsPerPage>25</openSearch:itemsPerPage><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-5667318925668447857</id><published>2009-11-03T11:34:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2009-11-03T21:10:37.855-08:00</updated><title type='text'>Take the Power to Create Credit Away from the Giant Banks and Give It Back to the People</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Many people - including former analyst for the U.S. Treasury &lt;a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&amp;amp;aid=12932"&gt;Richard Cook&lt;/a&gt; - argue that credit is too important a function to be left to the private banks.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Indeed, even after taxpayers have given trillions in bailouts, backstops, guarantees, and other gifts, the giant banks are still not lending out much credit to individuals or small businesses.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The talking heads say that real reform of this nature is not "politically feasible".  But not politically feasible doesn't actually mean anything except that the powers-that-be &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/04/real-meaning-of-not-politically.html"&gt;don't want it.&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We have been throwing ourselves against a brick wall trying to force the giant banks into doing the right thing, but as Buckminster Fuller said: &lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;u&gt;A Better Model&lt;/u&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;So what is a better model?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Gold advocates argue for a return to a gold-backed standard. This would, in fact, be a &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;vast improvement&lt;/span&gt; over the fiat currency system we have now, as it would help to stabilize the currency, add discipline and consistency, and reign in the funding of unnecessary wars and other imperial mischief which are funded by the unlimited printing of new fiat dollars.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;But Ellen Brown &lt;a href="http://www.webofdebt.com/excerpts/chapter-37.php"&gt;argues&lt;/a&gt; that a gold standard restricts credit for the little guy, not just Uncle Sam.   If Brown is right - and given that the too big to fails are refusing to lend to most little guys - public banking might be the only way to restore a healthy economy and ease the pain for the average American. (Brown also &lt;a href="http://www.webofdebt.com/order.php"&gt;argues&lt;/a&gt; that it was actually the bankers - and not the populists - who forced the adoption of a gold standard in the 1890s, and that the true meaning of the "Cross of Gold" speech has been forgotten).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;But as discussed below, it may not be necessary to choose between a gold standard and other options.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;u&gt;National Public Bank&lt;/u&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka &lt;a href="http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/trumka_-_afl_cio.pdf"&gt;told&lt;/a&gt; Congress last week:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;If the Federal Reserve were made a fully public body, it would be an acceptable alternative.&lt;/blockquote&gt;The American Monetary Institute &lt;a href="http://www.monetary.org/need_for_monetary_reform.html"&gt;proposes&lt;/a&gt; the following alternative:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Incorporate the Federal Reserve System into the U.S. Treasury where all new money would be created by government as money, not interest-bearing debt; and be spent into circulation to promote the general welfare. The monetary system would be monitored to be neither inflationary nor deflationary.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Second, halt the bank’s privilege to create money by ending the fractional reserve system in a gentle and elegant way.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;All the past monetized private credit would be converted into U.S. government money. Banks would then act as intermediaries accepting savings deposits and loaning them out to borrowers. They would do what people think they do now. This Act nationalizes the money system, not the banking system.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;Bloomberg News columnist Matthew Lynn &lt;a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&amp;amp;sid=amqH8lCSKz7E"&gt;writes&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;The U.K. government needs to start thinking about what it will do with all the banks it now owns. The answer is simple: Hand them to the people...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Instead of selling the stakes it acquired in the financial system to other banks, or listing the shares on the stock market, it could create mutually owned societies. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc could be a people’s bank, owned by everyone.That would ensure more diversity, competition and stability, all goals just as worthy as getting back the money Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government spent on bank rescues...&lt;/blockquote&gt;Sovereign nations such as the U.S. and England have &lt;span&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/banks-create-money-out-of-thin-air-not.html"&gt;the power to create credit and money&lt;/a&gt; (and see &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/07/fdr-chickened-out-of-real-economic.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="http://image.examiner.com/x-18425-LA-County-Nonpartisan-Examiner%7Ey2009m10d6-Top-10-Americans-for-monetary-reform-history-and-insight-for-the-present"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.monetary.org/"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;. &lt;/span&gt;Taking the credit-creation power away from the banks and giving it back to the nation would ensure that credit is freed up for people's use, and the stranglehold over the economy is taken away from the too big to fails.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;u&gt;State Public Banks&lt;/u&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Many people argue that - given its actions - people don't &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;trust &lt;/span&gt;the federal government to create money.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Fair enough.  Why not let the states do it?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Michael Moore &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/michael-moore-promotes-public-banking.html"&gt;recommends&lt;/a&gt; that the American people demand:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Each of the 50 states must create a state-owned public bank like they have in North Dakota.&lt;/strong&gt; Then congress MUST reinstate all the strict pre-Reagan regulations on all commercial banks, investment firms, insurance companies -- and all the other industries that have been savaged by deregulation: Airlines, the food industry, pharmaceutical companies -- you name it. If a company's primary motive to exist is to make a profit, then it needs a set of stringent rules to live by -- and the first rule is "Do no harm." The second rule: The question must always be asked -- "Is this for the common good?" (&lt;a href="http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2009/03/how-nation%E2%80%99s-only-state-owned-bank-became-envy-wall-street"&gt;Click here&lt;/a&gt; for some info about the state-owned Bank of North Dakota.)&lt;/blockquote&gt;As Moore notes, the state of North Dakota &lt;a href="http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/state_bank_option.php"&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;already has&lt;/span&gt; such a bank&lt;/a&gt;, and - because of that - North Dakota is just about the only state which is not running a huge deficit.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;PhD economist and candidate for Florida governor &lt;a href="http://www.zerocosteconomy.com/about_farid_khavari-detailed.html"&gt;Farid Khavari&lt;/a&gt; wants to create a &lt;a href="http://www.knoxviews.com/node/12216"&gt;Bank of the State of Florida&lt;/a&gt;, to create credit without burdening the state and its citizens with high interest charges by private banks.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;See &lt;a href="http://www.truthout.org/1031091"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt; for details.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;u&gt;Local Public Banks&lt;/u&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;An alternative to federal or state public banking is &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;local public banks&lt;/span&gt;, as proposed by   &lt;a href="http://www.famousamericans.net/edwardkellogg/"&gt;Edward Kellogg&lt;/a&gt; and others.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As &lt;a href="http://www.vtcommons.org/journal/2009/11/adrian-kuzminski-how-vermont-can-abolish-usury-and-promote-sustainable-economy-featu"&gt;summarized&lt;/a&gt; by Adrian Kuzminski:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;During this time of financial and economic crisis, it is worth recalling that credible alternatives to our current financial system exist, if largely unrecognized, and deserve serious consideration...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The now-neglected 19th-century American proto-populist, Edward Kellogg ... was a kind of godfather to the later populist movement on monetary issues. Perhaps the most profound of American writers on monetary issues, Kellogg advocated a decentralized but nationally regulated monetary system based on non-usurious, low-interest public loans to individuals. His vision inspired 19th-century century mutualists, greenbackers, populists, and others who sought to restructure the monetary system to redistribute wealth.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In our own day, when usurious credit in the form of private finance capital remains the dominant force in economic life, and is largely taken for granted even by educated people, the alternative Kellogg offers is more  important than ever. Indeed, I suggest that Kellogg's theory of money is the best monetary alternative we have to the baleful system under which we suffer...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Edward Kellogg (1790-1858) was a New York City businessman whose losses in the crash of 1837 led him to examine the business cycle, monetary policy, and debt.  In a series of writings, Kellogg developed the idea of ... having the government provide very-low-interest loans to the general public. These loans would have a uniform, fixed interest rate, established by law. They would be issued locally through a system of public credit banks he called the Safety Fund. Once issued, these low-interest loan notes would circulate as currency, replacing the privately issued banking notes of his day (which today take the form of Federal Reserve Notes)...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In his day Kellogg seems to have influenced even Abraham Lincoln who, according to historian Mark A. Lause, " . . . had his own copy of Kellogg's book, Labor and Capital [sic] advocating the government issuance of paper currency as a just means of redistributing wealth, and he corresponded with the author's son-in-law." Kellogg's public currency was intended to end the monopoly over the discretionary issuance of money at interest, which was held then (and now) by the private banking and investment system...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Kellogg proposed to establish local public credit banks, and we might imagine one in each community. These local public credit banks would be part of the Safety Fund. Instead of money being issued (as it is now) through a privatized and centralized money-management system on a top-down basis, primarily as loans at increasing rates of interest from a central bank to major commercial banks, and then to regional and local banks, and then to the public, money in his system would be issued by local federal banks as loans directly to citizens at nominal interest on the basis of their economic prospects. Once lent out, Kellogg's public credit notes would flow into circulation, providing the basis for a new currency backed by the assets of individual borrowers...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;A centralized national currency would be replaced, in Kellogg's system, by a locally issued currency. But that currency would everywhere be subject to common national standards, ensuring that each local public credit bank reliably issued equivalent units of currency. A dollar issued by one local public credit bank of the Safety Fund, Kellogg intended, would be worth the same as, and be freely interchangeable with, one issued by any other. The independence of local branches would be guaranteed by the discretionary power reserved to them as a local monopoly actually to loan money; the compatibility of their monies would be ensured under federal law by fixing the value of the dollar by law at 1.1 percent/year – that is, by lending money everywhere to citizens at that rate...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The goal is to establish and preserve economic decentralization.  Amounts of money lent in Kellogg's system would vary considerably from place to place, with some areas needing and creating more currency than others. The solvency of local federal public credit banks would be guaranteed by collateral put up by borrowers, and the money supply would be stabilized by repayment of loans as they came due. The interchangeability of public credit bank notes would ensure a wide circulation for the new money...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;To achieve a stable currency, Kellogg insisted that this rate be fixed by law; perhaps today it would take a constitutional amendment.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;u&gt;What's the Best Option?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/u&gt;People of good faith debate whether the gold standard, or national, state or local public banking is the best solution.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;But they agree that the current fiat currency system where the creation of credit is controlled by the private banks has pushed us into an economic crisis and a credit crunch, with little hope of stability for the future.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Changing to a public banking system and/or reimplementing the gold standard  would clearly be a large change.  But remember - as Buckminster Fuller pointed out - building a new model is often easier than fighting the existing one.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The time is right for a new model.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;u style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Afterword:  Is a Gold Standard Incompatible with Public Banking?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/u&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Many people assume that a gold standard is incompatible with public banking.   But that might not necessarily be true.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt; An analysis of ways in which a gold standard might possibly complement public banking is beyond the scope of this essay, and I have not yet even thought it through myself.   But before ruling out the possibility, I invite financial experts to brainstorm on this issue to see if we can have the best of both worlds.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;After all, when currency speculation is removed from the equation, money simply acts as  a yardstick to measure the exchange of goods and services so that barter is not necessary.  People may be able to create a money system which has the stability and discipline created by a gold backed system. with the credit availability of a public banking system.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Admittedly, the gold standard may at first blush be seen as more conservative than public banking, as the former limits money expansion while the latter encourages it. But as with all liberal-conservative dichotomies, it is important to get beyond labels and to determine what is actually best.  Indeed, public banking - especially if it is on the state or local level - would not create easy credit for the government to launch new imperial adventures.   &lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-5667318925668447857?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/11/take-power-to-create-credit-away-from.html' title='Take the Power to Create Credit Away from the Giant Banks and Give It Back to the People'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/5667318925668447857/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/take-power-to-create-credit-away-from.html#comment-form' title='3 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/5667318925668447857'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/5667318925668447857'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/take-power-to-create-credit-away-from.html' title='Take the Power to Create Credit Away from the Giant Banks and Give It Back to the People'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>3</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-1405699378113326352</id><published>2009-11-03T10:29:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2009-11-03T14:04:50.260-08:00</updated><title type='text'>The Inverse Relationship Between Dollar and Gold</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I think gold will do well long-term. See &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/gold-big-picture.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/11/india-china-russia-and-some-eu-central.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But as I have previously argued, I think gold is surging right now mainly due to weakness in the dollar.  See &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/gold-is-not-at-all-time-high.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/golds-performance-in-different.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;Indeed, Nouriel Roubini &lt;a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a5b3216-c70b-11de-bb6f-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1"&gt;says&lt;/a&gt; that commodity prices have risen largely because of the huge carry trade in dollars, and that - when the carry trade unwinds - there will be a huge crash in virtually all asset crashes.  And see Tyler Durden's &lt;a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/roubini-dollar-carry-reversal-and-why-he-only-half-way-there"&gt;thoughts&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;p&gt;Again, I am bullish on gold in the long-term, but I think there might be a large correction in the short run when the dollar rises.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;And contrary to what &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/is-david-bloom-wrong-about-dollar.html"&gt;some people think&lt;/a&gt;, I agree with Roubini: the dollar &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;will &lt;/span&gt;rally sizably at some point in the not-too-distant future (just like it did during the credit crunch last year), before crashing rather definitively.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Update: Gold and the dollar both rose today, but the rise in gold is being &lt;a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;amp;sid=aoGPCVrFoel8&amp;amp;pos=3"&gt;attributed&lt;/a&gt; to India's purchase of 200 metric tons of gold.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Note: I am not an investment advisor and this should not be taken as investment advice.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="post-body entry-content" style="float: left; text-align: left;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-1405699378113326352?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/11/inverse-relationship-between-dollar-and.html' title='The Inverse Relationship Between Dollar and Gold'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/1405699378113326352/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/inverse-relationship-between-dollar-and.html#comment-form' title='1 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/1405699378113326352'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/1405699378113326352'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/inverse-relationship-between-dollar-and.html' title='The Inverse Relationship Between Dollar and Gold'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>1</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-7881224882163719362</id><published>2009-11-03T01:48:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2009-11-03T11:19:11.738-08:00</updated><title type='text'>India, China, Russia and Some EU Central Banks Buying Gold</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;India's central bank is &lt;a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09381.htm"&gt;buying&lt;/a&gt; 200 metric tons of gold from the IMF, at &lt;a href="http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/11/03/2009-11-03T094455Z_01_N02468120_RTRIDST_0_IMF-GOLD-INDIA-UPDATE-2-CORRECTED.html"&gt;$1,045 an ounce&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;China, Russia and some EU central banks have also &lt;a href="http://www.livemint.com/2009/11/02231541/RBI-to-buy-200-tonnes-of-IMF-g.html"&gt;expressed interest&lt;/a&gt; in buying gold from the IMF or elsewhere.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Therefore, Bloomberg's &lt;a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&amp;amp;sid=agl8iwWuXS_k"&gt;article&lt;/a&gt; of today saying that "Central Banks Will Become Net Buyers of Gold, WGC CEO Says" is not controversial.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Given that the IMF has only &lt;a href="http://www.imf.org/External/NP/EXR/faq/goldfaqs.htm"&gt;authorized&lt;/a&gt; the sale of 403.3 metric tons of gold at this time, the IMFs sales won't drive gold prices down.  Indeed, the other 203.3 metric tons should go pretty quickly, and there will almost certainly be left over demand from the world's central banks.  Remember, China itself previously &lt;a href="http://news.alibaba.com/article/detail/business-in-china/100175429-1-china-mulls-buying-imf-gold.html"&gt;considered purchasing&lt;/a&gt; the entire 403.3 metric tons.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;For the big picture on gold, see &lt;/span&gt;&lt;a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/gold-big-picture.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-7881224882163719362?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/11/india-china-russia-and-some-eu-central.html' title='India, China, Russia and Some EU Central Banks Buying Gold'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/7881224882163719362/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/india-china-russia-and-some-eu-central.html#comment-form' title='3 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/7881224882163719362'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/7881224882163719362'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/india-china-russia-and-some-eu-central.html' title='India, China, Russia and Some EU Central Banks Buying Gold'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>3</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-7208385544434578708</id><published>2009-11-02T16:01:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2009-11-02T16:26:41.095-08:00</updated><title type='text'>When Everyone is On the Same Side of a Trade, the Market is About to Crash</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Economist Blake LeBaron has &lt;a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/168771-michael-mauboussin-s-think-twice-harnessing-the-power-of-counterintuition-is-short-but-sweet?source=hp_wc"&gt;discovered&lt;/a&gt; an important cause of stock market crashes:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;During the run-up to a crash, population diversity falls. Agents begin using very similar trading strategies as their common good performance is reinforced. This makes the population very brittle...&lt;/blockquote&gt;In other words, when everyone is making the same trade, it will likely lead to a crash.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Tyler Durden &lt;a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/roubini-dollar-carry-reversal-and-why-he-only-half-way-there"&gt;summarizes&lt;/a&gt; this idea even more succinctly:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;When everyone is on the same side of the boat, it always inevitably capsizes.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;A related concept is that - if your waitress or cabbie is telling you to buy something - that probably means that the market is overbought, and you might want to consider selling.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-7208385544434578708?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/11/when-everyone-is-on-same-side-of-trade.html' title='When Everyone is On the Same Side of a Trade, the Market is About to Crash'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/7208385544434578708/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/when-everyone-is-on-same-side-of-trade.html#comment-form' title='14 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/7208385544434578708'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/7208385544434578708'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/when-everyone-is-on-same-side-of-trade.html' title='When Everyone is On the Same Side of a Trade, the Market is About to Crash'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>14</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-4227024087003905244</id><published>2009-11-02T14:13:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2009-11-02T15:29:39.620-08:00</updated><title type='text'>Roubini: "Deleveraging Requires The Writing Down Of Debt As Reflationary Policies Are Not A Free Lunch And Won't Solve The Debt Overhang Problem"</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Nouriel Roubini &lt;a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/10000?cluster_id=13965"&gt;writes&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul class="helper_c_description"&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;Ultimately, deleveraging requires the writing down of debt as reflationary policies are not a free lunch and won't solve the debt overhang problem (Dr. Roubini). Important case study: Japan back into deflationary territory despite huge public debt and QE (Chinn). Rather than a sign of inflation, higher long-term yields may be pointing to higher real interest rates which are compatible with a deflationary environment (BofA). The equilibrium coexistence of zero interest rates, high unemployment, deflation, rising cash balances and excess reserves points to a liquidity trap environment as during the Great Depression and Japan's lost decade. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;But America's economic "leadership" (Geithner, Summers, Bernanke and company) are doing everything in their power to keep the giant banks from writing down bad debt (see &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/08/roubini-this-is-crisis-of-solvency-but.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/08/taleb-our-leadership-is-literally.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/07/economists-have-acted-like-team-docors.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2008/10/in-trying-to-stop-inevitable.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;When will they be &lt;a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/02/maria-cantwell-im-not-sur_n_342509.html"&gt;fired&lt;/a&gt;?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-4227024087003905244?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/11/roubini-deleveraging-requires-writing.html' title='Roubini: &quot;Deleveraging Requires The Writing Down Of Debt As Reflationary Policies Are Not A Free Lunch And Won&apos;t Solve The Debt Overhang Problem&quot;'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/4227024087003905244/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/roubini-deleveraging-requires-writing.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/4227024087003905244'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/4227024087003905244'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/roubini-deleveraging-requires-writing.html' title='Roubini: &quot;Deleveraging Requires The Writing Down Of Debt As Reflationary Policies Are Not A Free Lunch And Won&apos;t Solve The Debt Overhang Problem&quot;'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-8764158151575447205</id><published>2009-11-02T11:10:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2009-11-02T12:31:51.635-08:00</updated><title type='text'>China: Caution May Be Warranted | Japan: Real Troubles</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As I have repeatedly &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/07/china-to-switch-off-bubble-blowing.html"&gt;noted&lt;/a&gt;, China has been blowing a bubble with easy credit.  MarketWatch's Craig Stephen &lt;a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tighter-policy-could-slam-the-recovery-2009-11-01"&gt;warns&lt;/a&gt; investors to be wary of a potential correction, at least in some sectors:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Policy tightening could soon become the dominant market theme, meaning it's time for a rethink. After recent rate hikes in Australia and Norway, tightening is back on the agenda in many countries, including China. And with the U.S. just clocking up 3.5% annualized GDP growth for the third quarter, dollar bears will have something to think about.          &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; Nomura says its time to get a little more defensive in the face of what they call a "cappuccino recovery" - one-third espresso, one-third milk and one-third froth. &lt;/p&gt;         &lt;p&gt; They argue investors face a dilemma on how to discriminate between genuine and sustainable areas of economic growth and the sharp rise in asset prices, often aided by excess liquidity. &lt;/p&gt;         &lt;p&gt; The Nomura analysts advise switching out of high beta regional exchanges, which was a recent call.            &lt;/p&gt;         &lt;p&gt; This change is worth paying attention to, as Nomura's strategists were among the first to link quantitative easing to raising the risk profile of investors and lifting equity markets early this year.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; Exchanges and brokerages have been some of the big winners of resuscitated financial markets, while in China, banks and insurers have been a great play on the huge money-supply expansion. Last Friday we saw China's new GEM market launched, with all stocks more than doubling in intraday trading -- will this be a new high-water mark? &lt;/p&gt;          Another area where asset prices may have peaked is property...&lt;p&gt;Runaway prices are not foremost on officials' minds, rather the possibility of a reversal. According to a story in the South China Morning Post quoting an unnamed official, there are no plans to introduce substantial measures to control the surge in the property market. Instead, it said, the government is more worried about a sharp fall in property prices.          &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; Perhaps investors should take note. In Hong Kong, the government effectively controls the price of land. Moreover, property and banking stocks make up more than half of the Hang Seng Index. &lt;/p&gt;         &lt;p&gt; If loose money conditions that have been so good to financial and property assets do reverse, Nomura suggests a good place to be positioned is in the under-performing telecom sector, which looks attractive on a yield basis...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Another area that offers similar attributes to those of telecoms and is likely to see continued strong growth is the China Internet sector. A new report from Macquarie on China Internet leader Tencent orecasts growth will remain robust. One statistic that caught my eye was that its QQ instant-messaging services now caters to 448 million active accounts. Tencent is expanding its range of services to this massive user base and is consolidating its first-mover advantage. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In case you haven't been keeping up with Japan, Ambrose-Evans Pritchard does a great job of &lt;a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6480289/It-is-Japan-we-should-be-worrying-about-not-America.html"&gt;summing up&lt;/a&gt; that nation's dire financial circumstances: &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Japan is drifting helplessly towards a dramatic fiscal crisis...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The rocketing cost of insuring against the bankruptcy of the Japanese state is    telling us that the model has smashed into the buffers. Credit default swaps    (CDS) on five-year Japanese debt have risen from 35 to 63 basis points since    early September. Japan has suddenly decoupled from Germany (21), France    (22), the US (22), and even Britain (47)...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;"Markets    are worried that Japan is going to hit a brick wall: the sums are gargantuan,"    said Albert Edwards, a Japan-veteran at Société Générale.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund    (IMF), told the US Congress last week that the debt path was out of control    and raised "a real risk that Japan could end up in a major default"...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt; "Can these benign conditions be expected to continue in the face of    even-larger increases in public debt? Going forward, the markets capacity to    absorb debt is likely to diminish as population ageing reduces saving,"    said the IMF. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt; The savings rate has crashed from 15pc in 1990 to near 2pc today, half    America's rate. Japan's $1.5 trillion state pension fund (the world's    biggest) has become a net seller of government bonds this year, as it must    to meet pay-out obligations. The demographic crunch has hit. The workforce    been contracting since 2005. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt; Japan Post Bank is balking at further additions to its $1.7 trillion holdings    of state debt. The pillars of the government debt market are crumbling.    Little wonder that the Ministry of Finance has begun advertising bonds in    Tokyo taxis, featuring Koyuki from &lt;i&gt;The Last Samurai&lt;/i&gt;. If Japan's bond    rates rise to global levels of 3pc to 4pc, interest costs will shatter state    finances. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt; No one knows exactly when a country tips into a debt compound trap. But Japan    must be close, even allowing for the fact that liabilities of the state Loan    Programme (FILP) have fallen by 40pc of GDP since 2000. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt; "The debt situation is irrecoverable," said Carl Weinberg from High    Frequency Economics. "I don't see any orderly way out of this. They    will not be able to fund their deficit. There will be a fiscal shutdown, a    pension haircut, and bank failures that will rock the world. It is    criminally negligent that rating agencies are not blowing the whistle on    this." &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt; Mr Hatoyama inherited a country that was already hurtling into sovereign "Chapter    11". The Great Recession has eaten up 27pc in tax revenues. Industrial    output is down 19pc, even after the summer rebound; exports are down 31pc;    the economy is 10pc smaller today in "nominal" terms than a year    ago – and nominal is what matters for debt. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt; Tokyo's price index fell 2.4pc in October, the deepest deflation in modern    Japanese history. Real interest rates have risen 300 basis points in a year.    It reads like a page from Irving Fisher's 1933 paper, Debt Deflation Causes    of Great Depressions...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;"This is incredibly dangerous," said Russell Jones from the RBC    Capital Markets. "The rate of deflation is shocking. The debt dynamics    are horrible and there is the risk of a downward spiral."&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;We're not talking about Iceland or Latvia here. Japan is the &lt;a href="http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&amp;amp;client=firefox-a&amp;amp;rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&amp;amp;hs=gX3&amp;amp;ei=OzrvSrfyHo7osQPq-Ln1Aw&amp;amp;sa=X&amp;amp;oi=spell&amp;amp;resnum=0&amp;amp;ct=result&amp;amp;cd=1&amp;amp;ved=0CAkQBSgA&amp;amp;q=japan+world%27s+biggest+economies&amp;amp;spell=1"&gt;world's second biggest economy&lt;/a&gt;.   If Japan tanked, it would dramatically affect the world economy.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;For more on Japan's lousy age demographics, see &lt;/span&gt;&lt;a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/other-economic-crisis.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Note&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;: I am not an investment advisor and this should not be taken as investment advice.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;div class="post-body entry-content" style="float: left; text-align: left;"&gt;  &lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-8764158151575447205?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/11/update-on-china-and-japan.html' title='China: Caution May Be Warranted | Japan: Real Troubles'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/8764158151575447205/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/update-on-china-and-japan.html#comment-form' title='1 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/8764158151575447205'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/8764158151575447205'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/update-on-china-and-japan.html' title='China: Caution May Be Warranted | Japan: Real Troubles'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>1</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-229750669768049536</id><published>2009-11-02T01:03:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2009-11-02T21:26:11.941-08:00</updated><title type='text'>We Can't Even BEGIN to Debate Keynesian Stimulus Until We Know the Facts</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Keynesians argue that we must increase fiscal stimulus to prevent a full-scale depression.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;They argue that "deficit hawks" are wrong when they say that we can't afford any more stimulus, and that worrying about debt in a crisis of this size is penny wise and pound foolish, given the bleak unemployment figures and other fundamentals.  They also point out that America's debt as a percentage of GDP is far less than Japan's.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;On the other hand, those worried about the giant debt overhang argue that massive debt and the failure to write down worthless assets and "purge malinvestments" from the system are the main problems.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Many also argue that the 1930s Keynesian stimulus programs did not work, and that the Depression did not end until World War II.  And they also argue that every dollar in additional debt incurred now is another burden added to our childrens' shoulders.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Who is right?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Before deciding, you might want to look at two pieces of data.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;u&gt;Different Bangs for the Buck&lt;/u&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Initially, many Keynesian academics argue that it doesn't matter where the stimulus money is spent, just as long as it is spent on &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;something&lt;/span&gt;. However, this is untrue. For example, it should be obvious that spending in some areas will have more and quicker turnover (increasing money velocity) as compared to others.  And, in fact, economists have documented that  some types of stimulus spending have &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/02/which-stimulus-programs-have-most-bang.html"&gt;more bang for the buck&lt;/a&gt; than others.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;So it is idiotic to talk about "fiscal spending" in the abstract.  Without a cost-benefit analysis as to each category of proposed spending, any analysis is hollow.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;u&gt;Aggressive Fiscal Stimulus Only Buys Two Quarters&lt;/u&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moreover, as former chief IMF economist and MIT professor Simon Johnson &lt;a href="http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/30/baseline-scenario-october-30-2009/"&gt;points out&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Perhaps the best analysis regarding the impact of fiscal policy on recessions &lt;a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/pdf/c5.pdf"&gt;was done by the IMF&lt;/a&gt;. In their retrospective study of financial crises across countries, they found that &lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;nations with “aggressive fiscal stimulus” policies tended to get out of recessions 2 quarters earlier than those without aggressive policies&lt;/span&gt;.  This is a striking conclusion – should we (or anyone) really increase our deficit further and build up more debt (domestic and foreign) in order to avoid 2 extra quarters of contraction?&lt;/blockquote&gt;Indeed, many experts &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/ongoing-cover-up-of-truth-behind.html"&gt;say&lt;/a&gt; that continuing to cover-up the fraud which led to the financial crisis will extend the crisis for &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;many years&lt;/span&gt;.  In other words, failure to investigate and prosecute those responsible for bringing about the crisis may extend the crisis longer than any failure to spend more on stimulus.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;(And investigations and prosecutions for fraud - unlike stimulus spending - would not increase America's debt or tax burden.)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;A real debate about whether we should spend more on stimulus - and if so, what types of stimulus - cannot even begin unless and until the aforementioned data is considered.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Note: Others have calculated bang for the buck from stimulus packages.  For example, here are &lt;/span&gt;&lt;a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10008/03-02-Macro_Effects_of_ARRA.pdf"&gt;the &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Congressional Budget Office&lt;/span&gt;'s estimates&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt; (look for "Estimated Policy Multiplier"):&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div style="text-align: center;"&gt;&lt;a href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451b33869e20112791a2a1328a4-popup" onclick="window.open( this.href, '_blank', 'width=640,height=480,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0' ); return false" style="display: inline;"&gt;&lt;img alt="Cbo2" class="at-xid-6a00d83451b33869e20112791a2a1328a4 " src="http://economistsview.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451b33869e20112791a2a1328a4-450wi" style="width: 410px;" border="0" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p style="text-align: left;"&gt;  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style="text-align: center;"&gt;&lt;a href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451b33869e2011168a53d72970c-popup" onclick="window.open( this.href, '_blank', 'width=640,height=480,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0' ); return false" style="display: inline;"&gt;&lt;img alt="Cbo3" class="at-xid-6a00d83451b33869e2011168a53d72970c " src="http://economistsview.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451b33869e2011168a53d72970c-450wi" style="width: 410px;" border="0" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;  &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-229750669768049536?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/11/aggressive-fiscal-stimulus-spending.html' title='We Can&apos;t Even BEGIN to Debate Keynesian Stimulus Until We Know the Facts'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/229750669768049536/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/aggressive-fiscal-stimulus-spending.html#comment-form' title='5 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/229750669768049536'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/229750669768049536'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/aggressive-fiscal-stimulus-spending.html' title='We Can&apos;t Even BEGIN to Debate Keynesian Stimulus Until We Know the Facts'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>5</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-3802669445982001284</id><published>2009-11-01T17:00:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2009-11-01T17:53:39.335-08:00</updated><title type='text'>Has the Government Broken the Social Contract with the American People?</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In a provocative comment to an essay I wrote, Kevin de Bruxelles &lt;a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/11/guest-post-galbraith-says-administrations-sole-goal-is-to-restore-system-of-5-or-10-years-ago-but-confidence-wont-be-restored-unless-fraud-which-caused-the-crash-is-investigated.html#comment-63262"&gt;argues&lt;/a&gt; that the government has broken the social contract with the American people, and discusses the ultimate meaning of such a breach of contract:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;One only needs to consult Hobbes to see where the answer lies.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In Leviathan, Hobbes contrasts two states for human society.   The first being a state of nature which is described as perpetual war between individuals.  The moral logic of the state of nature is that there is no right or wrong: “To this war of every man against every man, this is also consequent, that nothing can be unjust.  The notion of right or wrong, justice and injustice have no place.  Where there is no common power, there is no law: where there is no law, no injustices.  Force and fraud, are in war the two cardinal virtues.” (13.13)  And then Hobbes goes on to describe the moral logic of the state of nature: “And because the condition of man is a condition of war of every one against every one; in which case every one is governed by his own reason; and there is nothing he can make use of, that may not be a help unto him, in preserving his life against his enemies, it followeth, that in such a condition, every man has a right to every thing, even to another’s body. (14.4)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In order to transcend the state of nature, men accede to a social contract with each other to submit to a sovereign and in the process establish a civil society.   To Hobbes (later diminished by Locke) the sovereign is almost all powerful.  His job is to keep the peace, to install laws and justice, and to coerce the population to live within the limits he sets.  But the one of the few limiting factors on his subject's duty to submit to the sovereign is “The obligation of subjects to the sovereign, is understood to last as long, and no longer, that the power lasteth, by which he is able to protect them.  For the right men have by nature to protect themselves, when none else can protect them, can by no covenant be relinquished.” (21.21)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;What is clear is that in the United States, where the sovereign is the elected government, an elite segment of society, namely bankers and other extremely wealthy individuals, are playing by the old rules, the rules of the state of nature, and they are grabbing as much of the pie as they can. All this while the sovereign has at best lost the ability to resist this crime, or at worst, is actively complicit.  But the vast majority of citizens are sitting by idly still thinking they live in a commonwealth with laws and justice.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;There are two ways out of this mess.  Either the sovereign must start playing his role and start enforcing the law and justice for all, or alternatively the citizens must stop submitting to this sovereign, overthrow this system government, and start all over again to find a sovereign since living in a state of nature is not an option.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-3802669445982001284?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/11/government-has-broken-social-contract.html' title='Has the Government Broken the Social Contract with the American People?'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/3802669445982001284/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/government-has-broken-social-contract.html#comment-form' title='19 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/3802669445982001284'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/3802669445982001284'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/government-has-broken-social-contract.html' title='Has the Government Broken the Social Contract with the American People?'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>19</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-5153851904431577753</id><published>2009-11-01T11:23:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2009-11-01T13:33:40.994-08:00</updated><title type='text'>Galbraith: Administration's Sole Goal is to Restore System of 5 or 10 Years Ago, But Confidence Won't be Restored Unless Fraud is Prosecuted</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As I have &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/fed-economist-american-banks-went.html"&gt;repeatedly written&lt;/a&gt;, the largest U.S. banks have repeatedly gone bankrupt due to wild speculation which was blessed by the Fed, and then the government covered up their bankruptcy.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Indeed, the New York Times &lt;a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/01/business/economy/01citi.html"&gt;writes&lt;/a&gt; today about one of the too big to fails:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Over the past 80 years, the United States government has engineered not one, not two, not three, but at least four rescues of the institution now known as Citigroup.&lt;/blockquote&gt;But prominent economist James Galbraith recently &lt;a href="http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10302009/transcript1.html"&gt;told&lt;/a&gt; Bill Moyers:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;JAMES GALBRAITH&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt; The overwhelming emphasis, in the administration's program, I think, has been to return things to a condition of normalcy, to use a 1920s word, that prevailed five and ten years ago. That is to say, we're back to a world in which Wall Street and the major banks are leading, and setting the path-- &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;BILL MOYERS&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt;  To restore what was.    &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;JAMES GALBRAITH&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt;  To restore what was--    &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;BILL MOYERS&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt;  Instead of reform what is.    &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;JAMES GALBRAITH&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt;  And I don't think what was can be restored.    &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;BILL MOYERS&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt;  And you say that's the objective of the administration's policies?  Geithner, Bernanke, Summers, the President himself?    &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;JAMES GALBRAITH&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt; To the extent that there's a defined objective, that's it, yes. I think in the immediate day-to-day work, they've largely been preoccupied with keeping the existing system from collapsing. And the government is powerful. It has substantially succeeded at that, but you really have to think about, do you want to have a financial sector dominated by a small number of very large institutions, very difficult to manage, practically impossible to regulate, and ruled by, essentially, the same people and the same culture that caused the crisis in the first place. &lt;/blockquote&gt;In other words - as I have repeatedly written - the administration's talk of reform is just talk ... the boys are just trying to restore the status quo.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Galbraith also pointed out - as &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/ongoing-cover-up-of-truth-behind.html"&gt;many other experts&lt;/a&gt; have - that confidence in the system cannot be restored unless the fraud which led to the crash is investigated:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;JAMES GALBRAITH&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt; That's the point about the crisis, is that it could have been prevented. The people in authority two, three, five years ago, knew how to prevent it. They chose not to act, because they were getting a political and an economic benefit out of the speculative explosion that was occurring. &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;BILL MOYERS&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt; You mean, the people who could have prevented the dam from breaking were too busy fishing above it, and reaping big rewards to want to fix the crack in it? &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;JAMES GALBRAITH&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt; Sure. The Federal Reserve, in particular, knew that the dam was cracking. Alan Greenspan, I think, almost surely knew this, and chose to wait until it had washed away. &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;BILL MOYERS&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt;  Why?  &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;JAMES GALBRAITH&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt; They let all of this run, because they were getting a superficially stronger economy out of it. The ownership society, all that was a scam, basically, designed to lure people who could never afford these mortgages into accepting them. And yes, I think they, any rational person, certainly people in the industry, knew that this was not going to last. There was a little industry code, I've learned, IBGYBG. "I'll be gone. You'll be gone." &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;BILL MOYERS&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt;  Really?    &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;JAMES GALBRAITH&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt;  Yeah.    &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;BILL MOYERS&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt;  The industry being the securities industry?    &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;JAMES GALBRAITH&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt;  Well, and the mortgage originators and the bankers, generally.    &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;BILL MOYERS&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt;  But that's criminal fraud.    &lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b&gt;JAMES GALBRAITH&lt;b&gt;:&lt;/b&gt; Oh sure. There was a huge amount of it. The Bush administration did not actively investigate the fraud that they knew, that the FBI knew was occurring, from 2004 onward. And there will have to be full-scale investigation and cleaning up of the residue of that, before you can have, I think, a return of confidence in the financial sector. And that's a process which needs to get underway. &lt;/blockquote&gt;As the New York Times article notes, the lack of transparency is ongoing, even as between different branches of government:&lt;blockquote&gt;Representative Lloyd Doggett, a Texas Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee, recently registered unease about the government’s guarantee of $300 billion in Citigroup assets and how effectively the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, was monitoring the bank.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;“We cannot know the full scope of the taxpayers’ potential cost from these hasty guarantees,” Mr. Doggett said last week in an e-mail message. “Inexplicably, Secretary Geithner appears unwilling to commit to conduct an analysis, despite my specific request to him in March. A critical and transparent examination of the response to the financial crisis is essential not only to learn from past mistakes, but also to prevent further erosion of the public’s trust in government.”&lt;/blockquote&gt;Mario Seccareccia - editor of the International Journal of Political Economy - &lt;a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/29/post_270_n_338107.html"&gt;points out&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;div style="position: fixed;"&gt;&lt;div id="new_selection_block0.21206247813455836" style="border: medium none ; overflow: hidden; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Great Crash of 1929 taught us that a modern monetary market economy is governed by confidence. As John Maynard Keynes &lt;a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes"&gt; &lt;/a&gt;put it, monetary relations and, more precisely, asset values, are held up by one's belief in the future. Without it, the whole credit-driven economic system comes to a halt and economic agents scramble for cover by seeking to acquire liquidity. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;While in a non commodity-based monetary system a central bank can quite easily supply liquidity in its role as lender of last resort, a central bank cannot single-handedly instill confidence in the future. When confidence is lost, monetary policy is impotent in building up asset values, which can only be sustained if people believe in future revenue arising from future production. The economy remains trapped in a state of paralysis in which everyone is seeking to remain liquid. History tells the tale: Excessive optimism prior to the Great Crash turned to hopelessness during the early 1930s.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;Without a thorough investigation like the Pecora Commission, and without prosecuting those who are guilty,  confidence and hope in the future will not be restored, consumer confidence will remain depressed, and we will remain in an economic slump.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-5153851904431577753?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/11/galbraith-white-houses-sole-goal-is-to.html' title='Galbraith: Administration&apos;s Sole Goal is to Restore System of 5 or 10 Years Ago, But Confidence Won&apos;t be Restored Unless Fraud is Prosecuted'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/5153851904431577753/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/galbraith-white-houses-sole-goal-is-to.html#comment-form' title='3 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/5153851904431577753'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/5153851904431577753'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/11/galbraith-white-houses-sole-goal-is-to.html' title='Galbraith: Administration&apos;s Sole Goal is to Restore System of 5 or 10 Years Ago, But Confidence Won&apos;t be Restored Unless Fraud is Prosecuted'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>3</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-4810797326922703929</id><published>2009-10-31T12:33:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-31T22:20:32.341-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Chairman of the Department of Economics at George Mason University: Politicians Are NOT Prostitutes ... They Are Pimps</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Many people have called politicians prostitutes. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;True, Obama has &lt;a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=obama+contributions+%22goldman+sachs%22&amp;amp;ie=utf-8&amp;amp;oe=utf-8&amp;amp;aq=t&amp;amp;rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&amp;amp;client=firefox-a"&gt;received&lt;/a&gt; more donations from Goldman Sachs and the rest of the financial industry than almost anyone else.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;And Summers and the rest of Obama's &lt;a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/28/bankers-vs-the-people-whi_n_335842.html"&gt;economic team&lt;/a&gt; have made many millions - even recently - from the financial industry.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;And Congress has largely been &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/bought-and-paid-for.html"&gt;bought and paid&lt;/a&gt; for, and two powerful congressmen have said that &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/06/second-powerful-congressman-says-banks.html"&gt;banks &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;run&lt;/span&gt; Congress&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;So yes, they have certainly sold their goods to the highest bidders.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Indeed, at least some people trust prostitutes&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/08/poll-who-do-you-trust-more-prostitutes.html"&gt;more&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt; &lt;/span&gt;than elected officials.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But the prostitution analogy is inaccurate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Specifically, as the chairman of the Department of Economics at George Mason University (Donald J. Boudreaux) &lt;a href="http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/s_608903.html"&gt;points out&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Real whores, after all, personally supply the services their customers seek. Prostitutes do not steal; their customers pay them voluntarily. And their customers pay only with money belonging to these customers.  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In contrast, members of Congress routinely truck and barter with other people's property...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Members of Congress are less like whores than they are like pimps for persons unwillingly conscripted to perform unpleasant services.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Consider, for example, agricultural subsidies. Each year a handful of farmers and agribusinesses receive billions of taxpayer dollars. These are dollars that government forcibly takes from the pockets of taxpayers and then transfers to farmers.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The customers, in this case, are the farmers and agribusinesses. The suppliers of the services performed for these customers are taxpayers, for it's the taxpayers who possess the ultimate asset -- money -- that farmers and agribusinesses lust after. And the intermediaries who oblige the suppliers to satisfy the base lusts of the customers are politicians. Just as pimps facilitate their customers' access to prostitutes' assets, politicians facilitate their customers' access to taxpayers' assets.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;We taxpayers have less say in the matter than we like to think. Sure, we can vote. But if even just 50.00001 percent of voters cast their ballots for the candidate proposing higher taxes, the assets of not only our pro-tax citizens, but also those of the remaining 49.00009 percent of us anti-tax citizens are put at the disposal of our pimps' customers. (And note that many of those who vote for higher taxes are not among those persons actually subject to higher taxation)...&lt;/p&gt;Politicians force taxpayers to pony it up -- just as the services rendered for a pimp's customers are rendered not by that pimp personally, but by the ladies under his charge. The pimp pockets the bulk of each payment; he's pleased with the transaction. His customer gets serviced well in return; &lt;em&gt;he's&lt;/em&gt; pleased with the transaction. The only loser is the prostitute forced to share her precious assets with strangers whom she doesn't particularly care for and who care nothing for her.  &lt;p&gt;Also like the ladies under pimps' power, taxpayers who resist being exploited risk serious consequences to their persons and pocketbooks. Uncle Sam doesn't treat kindly taxpayers who try to avoid the obligations that he assigns to them. Government is a great deal more powerful, and often nastier, than is the typical taxpayer. Practically speaking, the taxpayer has little choice but to perform as government demands.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;So to call politicians "whores" is to unduly insult women who either choose or who are forced into the profession of prostitution. These women aggress against no one; like all other respectable human beings, they do their best to get by as well as they can without violating other people's rights.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The real villains in the prostitution arena are those pimps who coerce women into satisfying the lusts of strangers. Such pimps pocket most of the gains earned by the toil and risks involuntarily imposed upon the prostitutes they control. No one thinks this arrangement is fair or justified. No one gives pimps the title of "Honorable." Decent people don't care what pimps think or suppose that pimps have any special insights into what is good or bad for the women under their command. Decent people don't pretend that pimps act chiefly for the benefit of their prostitutes. Decent people believe that pimps should be in prison.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Yet Americans continue to imagine that the typical representative or senator is an upstanding citizen, a human being worthy of being feted and listened to as if he or she possesses some unusually high moral or intellectual stature.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;It's closer to the truth to see politicians as pimps who force ordinary men and women to pony up freedoms and assets for the benefit of clients we call "special-interest groups."&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;i&gt;Note 1: The best analogy might be a man who kidnaps girls and then &lt;a href="http://www.ijm.org/ourwork/injusticetoday"&gt;sells them into sexual slavery&lt;/a&gt;.   Such a man does not provide the "protection"  that a pimp might provide to voluntary prostitutes.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;i&gt;Note 2: There are a handful of honest politicians, fighting for the American people.  But the exception proves the rule.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-4810797326922703929?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/politicans-are-not-prostitutes-they-are.html' title='Chairman of the Department of Economics at George Mason University: Politicians Are NOT Prostitutes ... They Are Pimps'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/4810797326922703929/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/politicans-are-not-prostitutes-they-are.html#comment-form' title='3 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/4810797326922703929'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/4810797326922703929'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/politicans-are-not-prostitutes-they-are.html' title='Chairman of the Department of Economics at George Mason University: Politicians Are NOT Prostitutes ... They Are Pimps'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>3</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-3395922891300840774</id><published>2009-10-31T08:54:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-31T21:26:40.972-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Congressman Watt Guts Bill to Audit the Fed</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ron Paul tells &lt;a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&amp;amp;sid=atc2o1ijLRno"&gt;Bloomberg&lt;/a&gt; that Congressman Watt has just more or less killed the bill to audit the fed:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Representative Ron Paul, the Texas Republican who has called for an end to the Federal Reserve, said legislation he introduced to audit monetary policy has been “gutted” while moving toward a possible vote in the Democratic-controlled House.             &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The bill, with 308 co-sponsors, has been stripped of provisions that would remove Fed exemptions from audits of transactions with foreign central banks, monetary policy deliberations, transactions made under the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee and communications between the Board, the reserve banks and staff, Paul said today.     &lt;/p&gt;        &lt;p&gt;“There’s nothing left, it’s been gutted,” he said in a telephone interview. “This is not a partisan issue. People all over the country want to know what the Fed is up to, and this legislation was supposed to help them do that.”..&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Paul, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, said Mel Watt, a Democrat from North Carolina, has eliminated “just about everything” while preparing the legislation for formal consideration. Watt is chairman of the panel’s domestic monetary policy and technology subcommittee. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Update: Ron Paul give perspective on Watt's action, pointing out that - while we've lost a battle - we haven't yet lost the war:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;center&gt;&lt;object width="560" height="340"&gt;&lt;param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/bPgzPxPwEV8&amp;amp;hl=en&amp;amp;fs=1&amp;amp;"&gt;&lt;param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"&gt;&lt;param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"&gt;&lt;embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/bPgzPxPwEV8&amp;amp;hl=en&amp;amp;fs=1&amp;amp;" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="560" height="340"&gt;&lt;/embed&gt;&lt;/object&gt;&lt;/center&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-3395922891300840774?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/congressman-watt-guts-audit-fed-bill.html' title='Congressman Watt Guts Bill to Audit the Fed'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/3395922891300840774/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/congressman-watt-guts-audit-fed-bill.html#comment-form' title='8 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/3395922891300840774'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/3395922891300840774'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/congressman-watt-guts-audit-fed-bill.html' title='Congressman Watt Guts Bill to Audit the Fed'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>8</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-8372017645746331746</id><published>2009-10-30T12:01:00.001-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-30T13:56:10.176-07:00</updated><title type='text'>America Is Repeating the Mistakes Which Led to the Fall of the Hapsburg Empire</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;William R. Hawkins (formerly an &lt;span class="regularTEXT"&gt;economics professor at Appalachian State University, the University of North Carolina-Asheville, and Radford University) &lt;a href="http://www.americaneconomicalert.org/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=1086"&gt;argues&lt;/a&gt; that America is repeating the mistakes which led to the fall of the Hapsburg empire:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="regularTEXT"&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Spain was the first global Superpower...With Spain as its political base, and gold and silver flowing in from its American colonies, the Hapsburg dynasty became the dominant power in Europe.  It controlled rich parts of Italy through Naples and Milan, and Central Europe from the Netherlands through the Holy Roman Empire to Austria.  In the 16th century it added the far distant Philippine islands to its empire.  The Hapsburgs held off the Ottoman Turks, whose resurgent wave of Islamic conquest in the 16th century swept across the Balkans and nearly captured Vienna.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Hapsburgs went into decline in the 17th century, and while any such momentous event has many causes, for our purposes the focus will be on the economic collapse of Spain, which not only sapped the empire of strength but served to build up the power of its rivals.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The demands of empire required a strong and growing economy, but Spain did not keep up with the economic expansion that was taking place in other parts of Europe.  Madrid’s financial base fell out from under its empire.  Spain could continue to consume in the short term because of the flow of precious metals from American mines, but it could not produce the goods it needed at home, which in the long-run proved fatal to its standing as a Great Power and as an advanced society.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Spanish imports were double exports and the precious metals became scarce within weeks of the arrival of the American treasure fleets as the money flowed to Spain's many creditors.  What industry there was, along with banking and shipping, was in the hands of foreign owners.  As a modern historian, Jaime Vicens Vives, has concluded, “This was one of the fundamental causes of the Spanish economy's profound decline in the seventeenth century, maritime trade had fallen into the hands of foreigners.” This, plus the “opening of the internal market to foreign goods,” produced a “fatal result.” Spain's exports were at the same time under heavy pressure by competitors in third country markets.  A nation that cannot control its domestic market will seldom be able to sustain itself in foreign markets, which are inherently less accessible and more unstable.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;Yet, Spanish leaders were deluded by a sense of false prosperity.  This is testified by the statement of a prominent official, Alfonso Nunez de Castro in 1675:  “Let London manufacture those fine fabrics of hers to her heart's content; let Holland her chambrays; Florence her cloth; the Indies their beaver and vicuna; Milan her brocade, Italy and Flanders their linens...so long as our capital can enjoy them; the only thing it proves is that all nations train their journeymen for Madrid, and that Madrid is the queen of Parliaments, for all the world serves her and she serves nobody.” A few years later, the Madrid government was bankrupt.  The Spanish nobleman had foolishly elevated consumption, a use for wealth, above production, the creation of wealth.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Historians have traced the flow of Spanish gold and silver across the markets of Europe.  Those who “served” Spain by establishing industries to manufacture goods for the Spanish market gained the money.  Spain’s rivals, France, Holland (which started a successful revolt in 1568) and England, prospered by their trade surpluses, and reinvested the money to expand their own capabilities.  Another modern expert on Hapsburg history, Henry Kamen, has cited contemporary sources who referred to 17th century Spain as “the Indies for the foreigner.” The military empire of the Hapsburgs became the economic colony of other powers, or, to use a current phrase, Spain was the “engine of growth” for the rest of the continent.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Where there were jobs and prosperity, there was also rapid population growth, and rising tax revenue.  Rival powers were able to field and finance military forces that could defeat the once superior Spanish forces both on land and at sea.  The irony of this is that Spain was ruled by a warrior aristocracy tempered by centuries of constant warfare against Islamic hordes and Christian heretics.  These nobles looked down on merchants and manufacturers and disparaged their mundane professions only to find that without a strong domestic business class they could not afford the fleets and armies that guarded the empire they had built.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;Today, the American “empire” is also trying to consume more than it produces.  The U.S. trade deficit is nearing Spain’s nadir of imports being double exports.  Both government spending and private consumption are financed heavily by debt.  Washington is printing money, the modern equivalent of digging gold out of the ground, rather than earning the means to pay its bills.  And the political and military elites are apparently indifferent to the fate of domestic business and industry. &lt;/span&gt; Americans must learn ... from the Spanish experience ... and take corrective action while they still can.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="regularTEXT"&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Hat tip to Chuck Graves.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="regularTEXT"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-8372017645746331746?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/america-is-repeating-mistakes-which-led.html' title='America Is Repeating the Mistakes Which Led to the Fall of the Hapsburg Empire'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/8372017645746331746/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/america-is-repeating-mistakes-which-led.html#comment-form' title='13 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/8372017645746331746'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/8372017645746331746'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/america-is-repeating-mistakes-which-led.html' title='America Is Repeating the Mistakes Which Led to the Fall of the Hapsburg Empire'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>13</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-2017339337230771206</id><published>2009-10-30T09:54:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-30T10:26:38.824-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Breaking Up The Too Big to Fails Will NOT Harm America's Ability to Compete with Foreign Banks</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I have previously debunked numerous false arguments used to defend the too big to fails.  See &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/white-house-still-defending-myths-about.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/big-banks-are-not-more-efficient.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;But the apologists for the TBTFs are now arguing that breaking up the beached whales ... er, giant banks ... will harm America's ability to compete with foreign banks.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Joshua Rosner (managing director of an independent financial services research firm), has written an important &lt;a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/congress-and-tbtf-%E2%80%93-bring-in-the-bomb-squad/"&gt;essay&lt;/a&gt; debunking this argument:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Those who argue against a more proactive reduction in risk and size of TBTF institutions will, as always, revert to an argument that strikes a natural chord in every American’s heart: ‘Doing so would create an unleveled international playing field for our institutions relative to their international competitors’. Level playing fields are a worthy goal, but this is not a relevant argument. Instead, this tired bromide must be resoundingly dismissed on several counts:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;Those countries with the largest banks as a percentage of GDP (Iceland, Ireland, Switzerland) demonstrated that a concentration of banking power can cause significant sovereign risk and tilt global economic playing fields away from that country.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;The likely breakups of ING, Lloyds and KBC suggest that it is we who seek to support an unlevel playing field where we subsidize our TBTF banks while other nations recognize the policy failures of moral hazard. If we continue down this path we will likely be at risk of violating international fair trade regimes.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;When the “unlevel playing field” argument is cited, keep in mind this reasoning supports the disadvantaging of 8000+ community banks relative to our largest banks, all in the name of protecting big banks from governmentally- subsidized international competition.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;There is no longer any evidence that, beyond a cost of capital advantage that comes with implied government support, there are sustainable and tangible economies of scale arising from being the largest. The financial supermarket concept has been proven a failure. The only ones who benefit are the high-level executives.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;We must demand that our legislators no longer allow unelected officials at the independent Federal Reserve to sign international accords created by the TBTF banks through supra-national bodies like the Basel Committee.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;Are we to believe that if we did not have such large and globally dominant firms, US borrowers might be paying more that the 29% interest that several of the TBTF firms are now charging on their card accounts? Perhaps we should think about what advantage our population has gained as a result of our financial institutions being such a large part of our economy or being globally dominant.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;Since when did we accept a national strategy of following rather than leading? When we do what is right, others follow. As example, consider the bank secrecy havens – they made money for a bit. Now, even the Swiss and the Cayman authorities are coming around to our view.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;We are already at a disadvantage given that the largest foreign banks operate in the US without any tier one capital requirement and yet mostlarge foreign banks have not built a bricks and mortar presence here. Nobody screams about their undercapitalization nor has that undercapitalization caused deposits to migrate to foreign banks.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;What fake excuse will the apologists for the TBTFs throw out next?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;That breaking up the giants and letting small and mid-sized banks, credit unions and state public banks compete fairly will shift the Earth's gravitational field as deposits shift away from the money centers?&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Note: Rosner has a funny and potentially effective idea for putting pressure on Congress.  He suggests that we all call our representatives and ask &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/bought-and-paid-for.html"&gt;how much the lobbyists have paid them&lt;/a&gt; to destroy America's economy by propping up the too big to fail banks.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Rosner's actual language is somewhat over-the-top:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;If leadership won’t add such language [reigning in the TBTFs], call your elected official and ask how much they actually receive when they agree to put on the kneepads.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-2017339337230771206?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/breaking-up-too-big-to-fails-will-not.html' title='Breaking Up The Too Big to Fails Will NOT Harm America&apos;s Ability to Compete with Foreign Banks'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/2017339337230771206/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/breaking-up-too-big-to-fails-will-not.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/2017339337230771206'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/2017339337230771206'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/breaking-up-too-big-to-fails-will-not.html' title='Breaking Up The Too Big to Fails Will NOT Harm America&apos;s Ability to Compete with Foreign Banks'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-8125452061840391819</id><published>2009-10-30T01:09:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-30T17:38:05.728-07:00</updated><title type='text'>The "Too Big to Fails" Are Playing Us for Fools</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In September 2008, I &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2008/09/wall-street-and-sheriff.html"&gt;wrote&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the 1974 comedy Blazing Saddles, Cleavon Little plays the new sheriff in an old Western town. The sheriff is African-American, and when he rides into town for the first time, the [racist] townspeople pull out their guns and are about to shoot him.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But he quickly puts a gun to his own head, pretends he's scared of his own gun, and says "BACK OFF OR THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN GUY GETS IT!!!" The townspeople are dumb and fall for it, suddenly terrified that he'll kill himself. Here's the &lt;a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upvZdVK913I"&gt;scene&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;That's what Wall Street is doing with the bailout.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The fat cats on Wall Street are saying "give us a lot of money, and buy all of our bad debt for a lot more than its worth, or Wall Street will get it and we'll go into a depression!"&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Are Americans stupid enough to fall for it?&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;In a recent &lt;a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebOTc-7shU"&gt;interview&lt;/a&gt;, William K. Black uses the exact same Blazing Saddles sheriff-bank analogy.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Miles Kendig has a different - but parallel - &lt;a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/breaking-too-big-fails-will-not-harm-americas-ability-compete-foreign-banks#comment-115436"&gt;analogy&lt;/a&gt; for the giant banks:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;In essence, what we have here folks is a characterization of the banks and the government that has assumed the risk profile of these banks as some sort of 1,000 pound men, unable to move without assistance.  They have suckered everyone else into the idea that if anything is done to move these overweight, unhealthy "persons" to health they will have a heart attack and kill us all since they sit upon the crossroads of commerce and have sold most folks the idea that they are the heart of the nation and indeed the world.   Given these "objective" circumstance the government is not only beholden to the 1,000 pound persons, but is one of them itself, will do everything to make the rest of us carry them so as to save them the indignity of actually addressing their morbid obesity and the cycle of codependency that enables them all to remain so fat.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Any way you look at it, the too big to fails are &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/breaking-up-too-big-to-fails-will-not.html"&gt;not needed&lt;/a&gt; and they are dragging our economy into a black hole.  Like the sheriff in Blazing Saddles or &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Kendig&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;'s 1,000 pound men, they are playing us for fools.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Update: Yves Smith shared another analogy with me: &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;a man with 15lbs. of Semtex strapped to his waist. She says "any surprise people in the vicinity are very attentive to his desires?"&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div&gt;  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-8125452061840391819?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/too-big-to-fail-and-1000-pound-man.html' title='The &quot;Too Big to Fails&quot; Are Playing Us for Fools'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/8125452061840391819/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/too-big-to-fail-and-1000-pound-man.html#comment-form' title='1 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/8125452061840391819'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/8125452061840391819'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/too-big-to-fail-and-1000-pound-man.html' title='The &quot;Too Big to Fails&quot; Are Playing Us for Fools'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>1</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-1551177664681175357</id><published>2009-10-29T12:22:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-29T21:50:17.850-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Congress: We Can't Help the American Public Because The Dog Ate Our Homework</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div style="position: fixed;"&gt;&lt;div id="new_selection_block0.12501279279813649" style="border: medium none ; overflow: hidden; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;Elizabeth Warren &lt;a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/29/post_270_n_338107.html"&gt;sums things up&lt;/a&gt; pretty succinctly:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;The banking lobby is as powerful and deeply entrenched as ever, but it was powerful in the 1930s, too. Nonetheless, the New Dealers learned the Great Lesson: Powerful insiders cannot be permitted to write the rules, and prosperity and security depend on a playing field that supports a vibrant middle class. Today, we face a similar set of questions as we faced then. Will the institutions that created the crisis continue calling the shots and writing the rules, or will Washington take the side of families? Have we learned the Great Lesson?&lt;/blockquote&gt;To date, of course, the White House and Congress are siding with "the institutions that created the crisis" and not families.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As PhD economist Craig Pirrong &lt;a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/169764-the-heart-of-the-too-big-to-fail-problem?source=hp"&gt;makes clear&lt;/a&gt;, all of the talk of "reform" and "regulation" coming out of Washington is just for show (without any substance), to appease the populist anger:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Rather than a serious effort to address systemic risk, this [&lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/trumka-dismantles-tarp-on-steroids-bill.html"&gt;proposal on bank oversight&lt;/a&gt;] seems to be populist boob bait, a response to popular outrage against taxpayer banking bailouts, rather than a serious attempt to address TBTF. Not a surprise, and quite understandable, but not a major improvement of incentives.&lt;/blockquote&gt;Indeed, a 725-word &lt;a href="http://harpers.org/archive/2009/10/hbc-90006000"&gt;story&lt;/a&gt; from Harper's proves (again) that Congress is trying to fool the American people:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Everyone rational knows that there is an enormous need to seriously reform the derivatives market, but [on October 7th, the House Financial Services] committee, headed by Congressman Barney Frank (D-Wall Street), invited a panel of eight guests who were distinguished by their uniformly pro-industry positions...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In response to complaints from Americans for Financial Reform, which represents hundreds of consumer groups and labor unions, the committee issued an invitation—&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;the night before the hearing&lt;/span&gt; was held — to Rob Johnson of the Roosevelt Institute. For the committee, the last minute inclusion of Johnson — a former managing director at Bankers Trust Company and former economist at the Senate Banking Committee and Senate Budget Committee — apparently constituted sufficient balance.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Predictably, witnesses at the hearing trotted out positions urging caution in regard to the matter of reform. Derivatives and other exotic financial devices have reaped the finance industry vast profits, but for Hixson of Cargill the common man and woman would be the real losers if Congress were to act too severely. “We offer customized hedges to help bakeries manage price volatility of their flour so that their retail prices for baked goods can be as stable as possible for consumers and grocery stores,” he told the committee’s wagging heads. “We offer customized hedges to help a restaurant chain maintain stable prices on their chicken so that the company can offer consistent prices and value for their retail customers when selling chicken sandwiches.”&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Johnson, who came last, offered the only serious critical viewpoint, saying that the American public had been “quite demoralized by…the bailouts that we experienced last fall.” After about five minutes of his testimony, Congresswoman Melissa Bean—another industry-funded committee member who chaired the hearing because Frank was absent—had heard enough. “I’m just going to ask you to wrap up because we’re running out of time,” she told Johnson.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Johnson gamely continued. “When I hear the testimony today that are largely financial institutions and end users, I believe that I represent a third group that comes to the table, which is the taxpayers, the working people of the United States,” he said.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;“I do need a final comment,” Bean interjected seconds later.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;That put an end to Johnson’s testimony. “I was just called to this hearing last night, so I will provide detailed comments on your bill and a statement for the record that will finish my comments,” he concluded.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;About five days later Johnson submitted his full testimony to the committee, to be included on its website along with the statements of the other eight panelists. When it wasn’t posted, Johnson asked Lynn Parramore, editor of the Roosevelt Institute’s blog, to see what was up. Parramore emailed and spoke to staffers at the Financial Services Committee, and received &lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;a number of explanations for why Johnson’s testimony had not been posted: first she was told it hadn’t been received, then that it had to be submitted as a PDF, then that the committee was having IT problems. “I couldn’t decide whether it was incompetence or mischief, but I began to suspect the latter,” Parramore told me.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;Finally, she was informed that the committee’s general counsel would not allow posting of the testimony because Johnson had not submitted it during the hearing. (Of course, since Johnson had been invited at the last minute it was impossible for him to fulfill this pointless requirement.) &lt;/span&gt;So you still can’t read Johnson’s prepared testimony at the committee website, but you can check it out on the Roosevelt Institute’s blog.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Meanwhile, Frank’s committee has put forth its “reform” bill. “Too tepid, too weak, too late,” Johnson says of the legislation. “Very industry influenced. We had a crisis and they are pandering to the perpetrators.”&lt;/blockquote&gt;Yves Smith &lt;a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/10/bank-favoring-censorship-in-government.html"&gt;summed it up&lt;/a&gt; well:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;The House Financial Services Committee has refused to publish his testimony, offering “the dog ate my homework” level excuses.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div style="position: fixed;"&gt;&lt;div id="new_selection_block0.874806955109304" style="border: medium none ; overflow: hidden; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-1551177664681175357?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/congress-we-cant-help-american-public.html' title='Congress: We Can&apos;t Help the American Public Because The Dog Ate Our Homework'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/1551177664681175357/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/congress-we-cant-help-american-public.html#comment-form' title='6 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/1551177664681175357'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/1551177664681175357'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/congress-we-cant-help-american-public.html' title='Congress: We Can&apos;t Help the American Public Because The Dog Ate Our Homework'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>6</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-8541868170975564457</id><published>2009-10-29T10:46:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-29T16:52:34.782-07:00</updated><title type='text'>"Money Multipliers Have Collapsed Everywhere...Confidence Is Missing. I Don't See Any Way To Stabilise M3 In Such Circumstances"</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Former officials are often more honest than current ones, since they aren't under pressure to spread &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/05/happy-talk-can-not-improve-economy.html"&gt;happy talk&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Former European Central Bank chief economist Otmar Issing recently &lt;a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6448884/Deflation-fears-as-Eurozone-and-US-credit-contracts.html"&gt;said&lt;/a&gt; what current officials aren't addressing:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Nobody can    be sure that we have a self-sustaining recovery. The challenges facing the    ECB are tremendous.  "Money multipliers have collapsed everywhere. What M3 is telling us is    that confidence is missing. I don't see any way to stabilise M3 in such    circumstances.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard &lt;a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6448884/Deflation-fears-as-Eurozone-and-US-credit-contracts.html"&gt;notes&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Data from the European Central Bank shows that the M3 broad money supply has    contracted over the last six months, confounding expectations that ultra-low    interest rates would soon boost monetary growth. Loans to the private sector    fell 0.3pc from a year earlier, the first such decline since the data    started in 1983. &lt;/p&gt;  The M3 figures include a wide range of bank accounts...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The picture is even starker in America where M3 has shrunk at an annual rate    of 6.5pc over the last three months, a pace of contraction not seen since    the 1930s. US bank loans have plummeted since May.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;(While the Fed &lt;/span&gt;&lt;a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H6/discm3.htm"&gt;stopped reporting&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt; M3 in 2006, people are still tracking it).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;How can M3 have collapsed when governments world-wide are printing money faster than &lt;a href="http://images.google.com/images?q=ihop&amp;amp;oe=utf-8&amp;amp;rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&amp;amp;client=firefox-a&amp;amp;um=1&amp;amp;ie=UTF-8&amp;amp;sa=N&amp;amp;hl=en&amp;amp;tab=wi"&gt;IHOP&lt;/a&gt; can cook pancakes?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Well, professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research &lt;a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6190818/US-credit-shrinks-at-Great-Depression-rate-prompting-fears-of-double-dip-recession.html?state=target#postacomment&amp;amp;postingId=6193876"&gt;says&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;A key reason for credit contraction is pressure on banks to    raise their capital ratios... "The current drive to make banks less leveraged and safer is having the    perverse consequence of destroying money balances," he said. "It    strengthens the deflationary forces in the world economy. That increases the    risks of a double-dip recession in 2010."  &lt;/blockquote&gt;But isn't it good that governments are requiring banks to raise their capital rations?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Sure, but unless they force the banks to write off their bad debts, they will remain  giant black holes, and will never be adequately capitalized.  If they are never adequately capitalized, they will never release money out into the economy through loans and other economic activity which  increases M3.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As just one example, remember that the nominative amount of outsanding derivatives &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;dwarfs&lt;/span&gt; the size of the global economy.  As another example, remember that several of the too big to fails have close to a trillion dollars &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;each &lt;/span&gt;in toxic assets in off-book SIVs.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn &lt;a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6190818/US-credit-shrinks-at-Great-Depression-rate-prompting-fears-of-double-dip-recession.html?state=target#postacomment&amp;amp;postingId=6193876"&gt;says&lt;/a&gt; that the    history of financial crises shows that "speedy recovery" depends    on "cleansing banks' balance sheets of toxic assets". "The    message of all financial crises is that policy-makers' priority must be to    stop the quantity of money falling and, ideally, to get it rising again,"    he said.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As many people have repeatedly written (including &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/09/economy-will-not-recover-until-trust-is.html"&gt;me&lt;/a&gt;), the world's governments must restore sound economic fundamentals - which includes forcing banks to write down their bad assets - instead of cranking up the printing presses and trying to paper over all of the problems.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Moreover, as Mish, Michael Rivero, and many others have pointed out, governments  can create all the credit they want, but if people do not have jobs, they will not borrow that money.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In addition, the amount of credit and wealth destroyed exceeds the amount of money pumped into the system.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;When will the politicians listen? Will they wait until after  the next huge market crash?  When there are tent cities everywhere?  After their governments default and they essentially lose sovereignty under "austerity measures" imposed by the IMF, World Bank or other agency?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-8541868170975564457?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/money-multipliers-have-collapsed.html' title='&quot;Money Multipliers Have Collapsed Everywhere...Confidence Is Missing. I Don&apos;t See Any Way To Stabilise M3 In Such Circumstances&quot;'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/8541868170975564457/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/money-multipliers-have-collapsed.html#comment-form' title='6 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/8541868170975564457'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/8541868170975564457'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/money-multipliers-have-collapsed.html' title='&quot;Money Multipliers Have Collapsed Everywhere...Confidence Is Missing. I Don&apos;t See Any Way To Stabilise M3 In Such Circumstances&quot;'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>6</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-3731689948499344647</id><published>2009-10-29T09:18:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-29T11:45:06.809-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Conservatives and Liberals Agree: Proposed Bank Oversight Bill Will Make Things Worse</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;When a liberal labor leader and a conservative financial policy analyst unite against something, you know that something is really bad (actually, I don't believe in the whole false left-right dichotomy;  I think its Americans versus those trying to steal our wallets and our rights, but that's another story).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today, AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka has &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/should-we-give-fed-more-power-or-less.html"&gt;slammed the Fed&lt;/a&gt; and the proposed "&lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/government-trying-to-create-permanent.html"&gt;Tarp on steroids&lt;/a&gt;" legislation in his testimony to Congress today.  Here are the must-read parts of Trumka's prepared &lt;a href="http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/trumka_-_afl_cio.pdf"&gt;remarks&lt;/a&gt;  to the House Financial Services Committee:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;We are deeply concerned that the Committee’s work thus far on the fundamental issues of regulating shadow financial markets and institutions will allow the very practices that led to the financial crisis to continue. The loopholes in the derivatives bill and the failure to require any public disclosures by hedge funds and private equity funds fundamentally will leave the shadow markets in the shadows. We urge the Committee to work with the leadership to strengthen these bills before they come to the House floor.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;However, these powers must be given to a fully public body, and one that is able to&lt;br /&gt;benefit from the information and perspective of the routine regulators of the financial system. We believe a new agency, with a board made up of a mixture of the heads of the routine regulators and direct Presidential appointees would be the best structure. However, if the Federal Reserve were made a fully public body, it would be an acceptable alternative.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But we cannot support the discussion draft made public earlier this week because it gives dramatic new powers to the Federal Reserve without reforming its governance so that the banks themselves are removed from the governance of the Federal Reserve System. Even more alarmingly, the discussion draft would appear to give power to the Federal Reserve to preempt a wide range of rules regulating the capital markets—power which could be used to gut investor and consumer protections. If this Committee wishes to give more power to the Federal Reserve, it must make clear this power is only to strengthen safety and soundness regulation and it must simultaneously reform the Federal Reserve’s governance. Reform cannot be put off until another day.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Federal Reserve currently is the regulator for bank holding companies. In that&lt;br /&gt;capacity, it was responsible throughout the period of the bubble for regulating the parent companies of the nation’s largest banks. While regulatory authority rests in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in Washington, routine responsibility for regulatory oversight has been delegated by the Board of Governors to the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The Federal Reserve System’s regulatory expertise resides in these regional banks.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The problem is that these regional Federal Reserve Banks are actually controlled by their member banks—the very banks whose holding companies the Fed regulates. The member banks control the selection of the majority of the regional bank boards, and the boards pick the regional bank presidents, who are effectively the CEO’s of the regulatory staff.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;These arrangements may explain why the Federal Reserve has never given any account of how it allowed bank holding companies like Citigroup and Bank of America to arrive at a point where they required tens of billions of dollars of direct equity infusions from the public purse to avoid bankruptcy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Giving the Federal Reserve with its current governance control over which financial&lt;br /&gt;institutions are bailed out in a crisis is effectively giving the banks the ability to raid the Treasury for their own benefit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We are also deeply troubled by provisions in the discussion draft that would allow the Federal Reserve to use taxpayer funds to rescue failing banks, and then bill other nonfailing banks for the costs. The incentive structure created by this system seems likely to increase systemic risk.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We believe it would be more appropriate to require financial institutions to pay into an insurance fund on an ongoing basis. Financial institutions should be subject to progressively higher fee assessments, and stricter capital requirements, as they get larger. This would be a way of actually discouraging “too big to fail.”&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In addition, language in the draft that appears to limit taxpayer bailouts of bank&lt;br /&gt;stockholders actually does no such thing, rather it simply ensures that when stockholders are rescued with public funds, bondholders and other creditors are rescued with them...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Finally, and not least, the discussion draft appears to envision a process for identifying and regulating systemically significant institutions, and for resolving failing institutions, that is secretive and optional—in other words, the Federal Reserve could choose to take no steps to strengthen the safety and soundness regulation of systemically significant institutions. In these respects, the discussion draft appears to take the most problematic and unpopular aspects of the TARP and makes them the model for permanent legislation.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Instead of repeating and deepening the mistakes associated with the bank bailout,&lt;br /&gt;Congress should be looking to create transparent, fully publicly accountable mechanisms for regulating systemic risk and for acting to protect our economy in any future financial crises.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;Conservative Peter Wallison - financial policy study analyst at the American Enterprise Institute - largely agrees.  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;In his prepared &lt;a href="http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/wallison_-_aei.pdf"&gt;remarks&lt;/a&gt; to Congress, Wallison says:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;The Discussion Draft of October 27 contains an extremely troubling set of proposals which, if adopted, will bring economic growth in this country to a standstill, essentially turn over the control of the financial system to the government, and seriously impair competition in all areas of finance.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;Rather than ending too big to fail, the Draft makes it national policy. By designating certain companies for special prudential regulation, the Draft would signal to the markets that these companies are too big to fail, creating Fannies and Freddies in every sector of the economy where they are designated. This will impair competition by giving large companies funding and other advantages over small ones.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;The idea that the designation of these companies will be kept secret is, with all due respect, absurd; securities laws alone will require them to disclose their special status; simple truthfulness will do the rest...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;If this legislation is passed, every industry will be in Washington, asking for special treatment or exemption. Competition in the market will become competition before this committee or in the halls of the Fed, lobbyist-to-lobbyist and lawyer-to-lawyer...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;This will not only create uncertainty and moral hazard, but it will give the large and powerful companies special advantages over small ones. Those that seem likely to be taken over by the government will have easier access to credit, at lower rates, than those likely to be sent to bankruptcy.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;In other words, the Draft proposes nothing more or less than a permanent TARP, using government money to bail out the large or politically favored companies, and then taxes the remaining healthy companies to reimburse the government for its costs of competing with them...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;The [proposed bill] would take control of the financial industry in the United States, stifle risk-taking and initiative, and change competitive conditions in every sector of the economy so that they favor large, government-backed, too big to fail enterprises...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;The Draft ... would now give the Fed authority to regulate any financial company that the Council determines should be subject to “heightened prudential standards,” even if there is no insured bank in the group...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;The result is that the question becomes one of political clout, with industries fighting in Congress for the competitive result they want. Some industries want to invade others’ turf; the invaded industry uses the law to fend off the competition; consumers are the losers. Congress becomes the battleground. It’s not just unseemly; it’s a frightening example of what happens when the government starts picking winners...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;Congress will be injecting itself into competitive fights between firms and industries, further politicizing what should be economic or financial decisions...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;The Designated Companies are under the complete control of the Fed. They will not be able to initiate new activities without the Fed’s approval, or enter new competitive fields, or perhaps even open new offices in new places. This is a degree of political control of business that has never been attempted before. Not only will it place the dead hand of government on the activities of financial companies, but it will almost certainly drive many financial companies out of the United States before they submit to these restrictions.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;The effect of these restrictions for the U.S. economy will be dire. First, Designated Companies will clearly have been labeled as too big to fail. In effect, the government has notified the capital markets that these firms will not be allowed to go into bankruptcy—they will be rescued in the ways I will describe below. This means they will be less risky borrowers than smaller companies that are not going to be controlled in the same way. As less risky borrowers, the Designated Companies will have lower costs of funding and will be able to drive smaller competitors from the markets they enter. Sound familiar? Yes, it’s Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all over again.  The existence of these Designated Companies will impair competition in every market they are allowed to enter, and will force the consolidation of competitors so that markets become dominated by government-backed giants like themselves....&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;[The bill assumes that] our entire financial system must be subjected, today, to far-reaching control by the Federal Reserve Board. With all due respect, this is absurd, and certainly disastrous for economic growth in the future.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;The Draft also contains language that suggest some of the problems of identifying Designated Companies in advance—and thus creating the Fannie/Freddie too big to fail problem—can be avoided if the designation of these companies is not disclosed to the public. This, too, with all due respect, is absurd...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;In addition, there is very little incentive for the government not to rescue failing Designated Companies, because the Draft provides that the surviving members of the financial industry larger than $10 billion in assets—whether Designated Companies or not—will be taxed to reimburse the government for its costs in the bailout...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;As in the GM and Chrysler bailouts, preferences are going to go to favored groups, and disfavored groups will suffer disproportionate losses. It will be a political free for all, with important legislators pressing the FDIC to treat their constituents better than someone else’s constituents.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;What we know is that no losses will be taken immediately by creditors. This is because the objective of the resolution authority is to prevent a “disorderly” failure, which actually means a failure in which creditors suffer immediate losses...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;The proposals in the Draft reflect very bad policy—far more likely to be destructive of the financial system and damaging to the economy than an improvement on what exists today.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="obmessage"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-3731689948499344647?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/trumka-dismantles-tarp-on-steroids-bill.html' title='Conservatives and Liberals Agree: Proposed Bank Oversight Bill Will Make Things Worse'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/3731689948499344647/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/trumka-dismantles-tarp-on-steroids-bill.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/3731689948499344647'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/3731689948499344647'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/trumka-dismantles-tarp-on-steroids-bill.html' title='Conservatives and Liberals Agree: Proposed Bank Oversight Bill Will Make Things Worse'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-5677040059640851380</id><published>2009-10-28T17:27:00.001-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-28T17:56:48.921-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Europe Is Breaking Up Its Too Big to Fails</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The American government is doing everything it can to avoid breaking up the too big to fails, even though there is absolutely no reason not to (see &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/white-house-still-defending-myths-about.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/big-banks-are-not-more-efficient.html"&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As Reuters columnist Rolfe Winkler &lt;a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/10/28/dont-codify-too-big-to-fail/"&gt;writes&lt;/a&gt; today:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;The new legislation unveiled by Representative Barney Frank doesn’t end “too big to fail” — it codifies it. It also puts taxpayers on the hook for a large portion of future bailouts.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But Europe is in the process of breaking up:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/government-to-break-up-the-banks-1810494.html"&gt;Lloyds&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/government-to-break-up-the-banks-1810494.html"&gt;Royal Bank of Scotland &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/government-to-break-up-the-banks-1810494.html"&gt;Northern Rock&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14739949"&gt;ING&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;And potentially other banks&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;What's the matter with the yanks?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-5677040059640851380?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/europe-is-breaking-up-its-too-big-to.html' title='Europe Is Breaking Up Its Too Big to Fails'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/5677040059640851380/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/europe-is-breaking-up-its-too-big-to.html#comment-form' title='5 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/5677040059640851380'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/5677040059640851380'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/europe-is-breaking-up-its-too-big-to.html' title='Europe Is Breaking Up Its Too Big to Fails'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>5</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-5259280306591254668</id><published>2009-10-28T14:08:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-28T14:24:31.458-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Government Is Trying to Make Bailouts for the Giant Banks PERMANENT</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;On September 25th, I &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/09/congressman-sherman-geithners-proposal.html"&gt;wrote&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Paul Volcker and senior Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron both &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/09/senior-harvard-and-cato-economist.html"&gt;testified&lt;/a&gt; to Congress this week that the government is trying to make bailouts for  the giant banks &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;permanent&lt;/span&gt;.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Writing Wednesday in The Hill, Congressman Brad Sherman &lt;a href="http://thehill.com/special-reports/finance-sept-2009/60067-geithner-rejects-1-trillion-limit-on-bailout-power"&gt;pointed out&lt;/a&gt; that :&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;In my opinion, Geithner’s proposal is “TARP on steroids.” Section 1204 of the proposal [the proposal being the "Resolution Authority for Large, Interconnected Financial Companies Act of 2009"] allows the executive branch to use taxpayer money to make loans to, or invest in, the largest financial institutions to avoid a systemic risk to the economy.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Geithner’s proposal reminds me of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the $700 billion Wall Street bailout adopted last year, but the TARP was limited to two years, and to a maximum of $700 billion. Section 1204 is unlimited in dollar amount and is a permanent grant of power to the executive branch. TARP contained some limits on executive compensation and an array of special oversight authorities. Section 1204 contains absolutely no limits on executive compensation and no special oversight.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;When I asked Geithner whether he would accept a $1 trillion limit on the new bailout authority (if the executive branch wanted to spend more, it would have to come back to Congress), he rejected a $1 trillion limit, insisting that the executive branch be able to respond without coming back to Congress.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Both TARP and the Treasury proposal have vague provisions under which taxpayers might possibly recover any money lost through a special tax on the financial services industry. Under the Treasury proposal, only the very largest institutions could benefit from a bailout, but the special tax, if ever collected, would fall chiefly on medium-sized institutions.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;Thus, the medium-sized institutions will be at a competitive disadvantage for two reasons. First, the largest institutions will be able to borrow money more cheaply because their creditors will believe that if the institution is unable to pay, the taxpayers will. Second, if there ever is a bailout benefitting a very large financial institution, the tax will be imposed on the medium-sized institutions.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Sherman is a senior member of the House Financial Services Committee and a certified public accountant, so he has a good nose for analyzing proposed financial regulations.  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Last week, Sherman made the following &lt;a href="http://washingtonindependent.com/65414/rep-finance-safeguards-just-tarp-on-steroids"&gt;comments&lt;/a&gt; to the Washington Independent regarding Congress' &lt;a href="http://www.house.gov/apps/list/press/financialsvcs_dem/presstitleone_102709.shtml"&gt;proposed bill&lt;/a&gt; on the too big to fails:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;That is a huge gravy train to the top 20 [financial institutions] because it allows them to borrow money at a lower rate. Think of what this does to moral hazard.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I’m not looking for a TARP on steroids with oversight. I’m looking for an end of TARP.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;The House Committee on Financial Services will hold a hearing on the bill &lt;a href="http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/hr_102209.shtml"&gt;tomorrow&lt;/a&gt;, with Tim Geithner, Sheila Bair, John C. Dugan (Comptroller of the Currency), Daniel K. Tarullo (Governor, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), John E. Bowman (Acting Director, Office of Thrift Supervision), Richard Trumka (President, AFLCIO), and others as witnesses.    &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As the Washington Independent points out, Sherman is going to try to take Tarp off of steroids:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Sherman said he intends to offer a series of amendments addressing the issue during the Financial Services panel’s markup of the bill, which has yet to be scheduled. Included will be a provision to cap the president’s bailout authority at $1 trillion, and another to strip out the resolution authority language entirely. A potential third proposal — to create an oversight panel like that monitoring TARP funds — is one he’s leaning against.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-5259280306591254668?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/government-trying-to-create-permanent.html' title='Government Is Trying to Make Bailouts for the Giant Banks PERMANENT'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/5259280306591254668/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/government-trying-to-create-permanent.html#comment-form' title='1 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/5259280306591254668'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/5259280306591254668'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/government-trying-to-create-permanent.html' title='Government Is Trying to Make Bailouts for the Giant Banks PERMANENT'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>1</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-4525264719474441169</id><published>2009-10-28T12:31:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-28T12:42:03.854-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Bill Gross: V-Shape Recovery is Unlikely</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Forget the permabears, even Pimco's Bill Gross is now &lt;a href="http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/Midnight+Candles+Gross+November.htm"&gt;saying&lt;/a&gt; a V-shaped recovery is unlikely:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;span id="RadEditorPlaceHolderControl1"&gt; &lt;blockquote&gt;The total bond market &lt;u&gt;yields&lt;/u&gt; only 3.5%. To get more than that, high yield, distressed mortgages, and stocks beckon &lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;the investor increasingly beguiled by hopes of a V-shaped recovery and “old normal” market standards. Not likely&lt;/span&gt;, and the risks outweigh the rewards at this point. Investors must recognize that if assets appreciate with nominal GDP, a 4–5% return is about all they can expect even with abnormally low policy rates. Rage, rage, against this conclusion if you wish, but the six-month rally in risk assets – while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policymakers – is likely at its pinnacle. Out, out, brief candle.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-4525264719474441169?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/bill-gross-v-shape-recovery-is-unlikely.html' title='Bill Gross: V-Shape Recovery is Unlikely'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/4525264719474441169/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/bill-gross-v-shape-recovery-is-unlikely.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/4525264719474441169'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/4525264719474441169'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/bill-gross-v-shape-recovery-is-unlikely.html' title='Bill Gross: V-Shape Recovery is Unlikely'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-502394152385499184</id><published>2009-10-28T01:39:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-28T10:27:34.786-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Should We Give the Fed More Power ... Or Less?</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;Congress is suggesting that the Fed be given more powers, making it the chief risk regulator of the entire banking system.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;Specifically, as &lt;a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/28/too-big-too-fail-bill-unv_n_336554.html" mce_href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/28/too-big-too-fail-bill-unv_n_336554.html"&gt;summarized&lt;/a&gt; by Huffington Post, a new bill introduced by Democrats in Congress "gives the Federal Reserve the power to determine which firms are actually 'too big to fail' and pose systemic risk to the financial system."&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;Given the Fed's history  (&lt;span&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;as discussed below)&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, that is like appointing the head of the Medellin drug cartel as drug tzar. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span&gt;Admittedly, the Congressional bill allows other agencies a seat at the risk regulator table. But those are likely token seats. If the drug tzar's office was staffed by the head of the Medellin drug cartel - who had the majority vote - and some law enforcement officers who have a history of either (a) being on the take or (b) looking the other way, what do you think would the result would be?&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;u&gt;High-Level Fed Officials Speak Out&lt;/u&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;High-level officials of the Fed itself have criticized the Fed's actions. For example, the head of the Federal Reserve bank of San Francisco - during a talk on how runaway bubbles can lead to depressions - &lt;a href="http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2009/0416.html"&gt;admitted&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;span class="paragraph"&gt;Fed monetary policy may also have contributed to the U.S. credit boom and the associated house price bubble &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="paragraph"&gt;...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn &lt;a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123629999083146775.html"&gt;conceded&lt;/a&gt; that the government's actions "will reduce [companies'] incentive to be careful in the future." In other words, he's admitting that the government's actions will encourage financial companies to make even &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;riskier&lt;/span&gt; gambles in the future.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Kansas City Fed President and veteran Fed official Thomas Hoenig &lt;a href="http://www.kansascityfed.org/speechbio/hoenigPDF/Omaha.03.06.09.pdf"&gt;said&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Too big has failed....&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;The sequence of [the government's] actions, unfortunately, has added to market uncertainty. Investors are understandably watching to see which institutions will receive public money and survive as wards of the state...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Any financial crisis leaves a stream of losses among the various participants, and these losses must ultimately be borne by someone. To start the resolution process, management responsible for the problems must be replaced and the losses identified and taken. &lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;Until these actions are taken, there is little chance to restore market confidence and get credit markets flowing. It is not a question of avoiding these losses, but one of how soon we will take them and get on to the process of recovery&lt;/span&gt;....&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;Many of the [government's current policy revolves around the idea of] "too big to fail" .... History, however, may show us a different experience&lt;/span&gt;. When examining previous financial crises, both in other countries as well as the United States, large institutions have been allowed to fail. Banking authorities have been successful in placing new and more responsible managers and directions in charge and then reprivatizing them. &lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;There is also evidence suggesting that countries that have tried to avoid taking such steps have been much slower to recover, and the ultimate cost to taxpayers has been larger&lt;/span&gt;...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;The current head of the Philadelphia fed bank, Charles Plosser, &lt;a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Fault-lines-emerge-Fed/story.aspx?guid=%7BF11875CE-A72F-4DFE-86ED-07A420EBB1CF%7D&amp;amp;print=true&amp;amp;dist=printMidSection"&gt;disagrees&lt;/a&gt; with Bernanke's strategy of the endless printing-press and ever-increasing fed balance sheet:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;div class="p"&gt;Plosser urged the Fed to "proceed with caution" with the new policy. Others outside the Fed are much more strident and want plans in place immediately to reverse it. They believe an inflation storm is already in train.&lt;span style="font-size:78%;"&gt;***&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Bernanke argued that focusing on the size of the balance sheet misses the point, arguing the Fed's various asset purchase programs are not easily summarized in a single number. &lt;/div&gt;                                   &lt;div class="p"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;But Plosser said that the growth of the Fed's balance sheet was a key metric.           &lt;/div&gt;                                   &lt;div class="p"&gt;"It is not appropriate to ignore quantitative metrics in this new policy environment," Plosser said.&lt;span style="font-size:78%;"&gt;***&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="p"&gt;Plosser is bringing the spotlight right back to the Fed's balance sheet.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;                                   &lt;div class="p"&gt; "The size of the balance sheet does offer a possible nominal anchor for monitoring the volume of our liquidity provisions," Plosser said.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;h3 class="post-title entry-title"&gt; &lt;/h3&gt;   &lt;p&gt;The former head of the Fed's Open Market Operations says the bailout might make things worse. Specifically, the former head of the Fed's open market operation - the key Fed agency which has been loaning hundreds of billions of dollars to Wall Street companies and banks - was &lt;a href="http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;amp;sid=aFzDKV89fQ0g&amp;amp;refer=home"&gt;quoted&lt;/a&gt; in Bloomberg as saying:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;"Every time you tinker with this delicate system even small changes can create big ripples,'' said Dino Kos, former head of the New York Fed's open-market operations . . . "This is the impossible situation they are in. &lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;The risks are that the government's $700 billion purchase of assets &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;disturbs markets even more&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;.''&lt;/blockquote&gt;And William Poole, who recently left his post as president of the St. Louis Fed, is essentially &lt;a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Fault-lines-emerge-Fed/story.aspx?guid=%7BF11875CE-A72F-4DFE-86ED-07A420EBB1CF%7D&amp;amp;print=true&amp;amp;dist=printMidSection"&gt;calling&lt;/a&gt; Bernanke a communist:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="p"&gt;               &lt;/div&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;div class="p"&gt;Poole said he was very concerned that the Fed could simply lend money to anyone, without constraint.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;                                   &lt;div style="font-weight: bold;" class="p"&gt; In the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe during the Cold War era, economies were inefficient because they had a soft-budget constraint. If a firm got into trouble, the banking system would give them more money, Poole said.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;                                   &lt;div class="p"&gt;&lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;               The current situation at the Fed seems eerily similar, he said.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt; "What is discipline - where are the hard choices - when does Fed say our resources are exhausted?" Poole asked.&lt;/blockquote&gt;But the strongest criticism may be from the former Vice President of Dallas Federal Reserve, who said that the failure of the government to provide more information about the bailout could signal corruption. As ABC &lt;a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=6225744&amp;amp;page=1"&gt;writes&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Gerald O'Driscoll, a former vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, said he worried that the failure of the government to provide more information about its rescue spending could signal corruption.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;"Nontransparency in government programs is always associated with corruption in other countries, so I don't see why it wouldn't be here," he said.&lt;/blockquote&gt;Of course, former Fed chairman Paul Volcker has also &lt;a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=volcker+criticizes+bernanke&amp;amp;ie=utf-8&amp;amp;oe=utf-8&amp;amp;aq=t&amp;amp;rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&amp;amp;client=firefox-a"&gt;strongly criticized&lt;/a&gt; current Fed policies.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;u&gt;Global Agencies Speak Out&lt;/u&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;BIS - the central banks' central bank - &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/07/bis-slammed-federal-reserve-and-other.html"&gt;slammed&lt;/a&gt; the Fed and other central banks for blowing bubbles and then "using gimmicks and palliatives" which "will only make things worse".&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The head of the World Bank also &lt;a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125409936849345249.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection"&gt;says&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Central banks [including the Fed] failed to address risks building in the new economy. They seemingly mastered product price inflation in the 1980s, but most &lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;decided that asset price bubbles were difficult to identify and to restrain with monetary policy&lt;/span&gt;. They &lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;argued that damage to the 'real economy' &lt;/span&gt;of jobs, production, savings, and consumption &lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;could be contained once bubbles burst, through aggressive easing of interest rates&lt;/span&gt;. They turned out to be wrong.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;u&gt;Economists Speak Out&lt;/u&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;&lt;p&gt;Stephen Roach (former chief economist for Morgan Stanley, and now director of Morgan Stanley Asia) is one of the most influential and respected American economists.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Roach told  Charlie Rose this week that we have had terrible Federal Reserve policy for the past 12 years under Greenspan and Bernanke, that they concocted hair-brained theories (for example, that we should let the boom and bust cycle occur, but then "clean up the mess" once things fall apart), and that we really need to reform the Fed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;Specifically, here's the &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.charlierose.com/download/transcript/10683"&gt;must-read&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt; portion of the interview:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;STEPHEN ROACH:  And what’s missing in the debate that drives me nuts is going back to the very function of central banking that’s at the core of our financial system. Do we have the right model for the Fed to go forward?  And, you know, I think we’ve minimized the role that the custodians, the stewards of our financial&lt;br /&gt;system, the Federal Reserve, played in leading to this crisis and in making sure that we will never have this again.  I think we’ve had horrible central banking in the United States for the past dozen of years.  I mean,  we elevate our central bankers, we probably .&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;CHARLIE ROSE:  From Greenspan to Bernanke.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;STEPHEN ROACH:  Yeah.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;CHARLIE ROSE:  Both.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;STEPHEN ROACH:  We call them maestro, and, you know, we make them&lt;br /&gt;sound larger than life.  And, you know, and the fact is, they condoned&lt;br /&gt;policies that took us from one bubble to another.  They failed to live up&lt;br /&gt;to their regulatory responsibility granted them by law.  They concocted new&lt;br /&gt;theories to explain why these things could go on forever, and they harbored&lt;br /&gt;the belief, mistakenly in my view, that monetary policy is too big and&lt;br /&gt;blunt an instrument, and so you just bring it in to clean up the mess&lt;br /&gt;afterwards rather than prevent a mess ahead of time.  Well, look at the&lt;br /&gt;mess we’re in right now.  We need a different approach here.  We really do.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;Leading economist Anna Schwartz, co-author of the leading book on the Great Depression with Milton Friedman, &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2008/10/problem-was-never-liquidity-but.html"&gt;told&lt;/a&gt; the Wall Street journal that the Fed's entire strategy in dealing with the financial crisis is wrong.  Specifically, the Fed is treating it as a &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;liquidity &lt;/span&gt;problem, when it is really an &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;insolvency &lt;/span&gt;crisis.&lt;p&gt;Moreover, prominent Wall Street economist Henry Kaufman &lt;a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE53G4M420090417"&gt;says&lt;/a&gt; that the Federal Reserve is primarily to blame for the financial crisis:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;"I am convinced that the misbehavior of some would have been much rarer -- and far less damaging to our economy -- if the Federal Reserve and, to a lesser extent, other supervisory authorities, had measured up to their responsibilities ...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Kaufman directly criticized former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan for not using his position to dissuade big banks and others from taking big risks.&lt;/p&gt;   &lt;span id="midArticle_7"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;         &lt;p&gt;"Alan Greenspan spoke about irrational exuberance only as a theoretical concept, not as a warning to the market to curb excessive behavior," Kaufman said. "It is difficult to believe that recourse to moral suasion by a Fed chairman would be ineffective."&lt;/p&gt;   &lt;span id="midArticle_8"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;         &lt;p&gt;Partly because the Fed did not strongly oppose the repeal in 1999 of the Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act, more large financial conglomerates that were "too big to fail" have formed, Kaufman said, citing a factor that has made the global credit crisis especially acute.&lt;/p&gt;   &lt;span id="midArticle_9"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;         &lt;p&gt;"Financial conglomerates have become more and more opaque, especially about their massive off-balance-sheet activities," he said. "The Fed failed to rein in the problem."...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;"Much of the recent extreme financial behavior is rooted in faulty monetary policies," he said. "Poor policies encourage excessive risk taking."&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;Economist Marc Faber &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/08/marc-faber-slams-central-banks.html"&gt;says&lt;/a&gt; that central bankers are money printers who create bubbles, and that the system would be much better now if the Fed hadn't intervened.  Specifically, Faber says that - if the Fed hadn't intervened - the system would be cleaned out, the system would be healthier because debt load and burden on taxpayers would be reduced.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Economist Jane D'Arista has &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/03/fed-has-failed-by-its-own-terms.html"&gt;shown&lt;/a&gt; that the Fed has failed miserably at its main task: providing a "counter-cyclical" influence (that is, taking the punch bowl away before the party gets too wild).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Fed has also &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/26/AR2009092602706.html"&gt;failed miserably&lt;/a&gt; in its role as regulator of banks and their affiliates. As well-known economist James Galbraith &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/galbraith-fed-is-unlawfully-withholding.html"&gt;says&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;The Federal Reserve has never been an effective regulator for the straightforward reason that it is dominated by economists and bankers and not by dedicated skeptics who make bank regulation a full-time profession.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;The Fed has &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/09/how-well-has-federal-reserve-performed.html"&gt;performed terribly&lt;/a&gt; in many other tasks as well.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span id="mDocumentText_ctl00_mTextDisplay" class="DocumentBody"&gt;And the Fed is &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/galbraith-fed-is-unlawfully-withholding.html"&gt;unlawfully refusing to disclose&lt;/a&gt; to Congress or the American people who it's giving money to and what it is really doing.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;u&gt;Conclusion&lt;/u&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Given the above, isn't it obvious that Congress is attempting to give the Fed more powers at a time when it should be audited, and then ended?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div style="position: fixed;"&gt;&lt;div id="new_selection_block0.7070127185974183" style="border: medium none ; overflow: hidden; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;"&gt;&lt;u&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Read more at: &lt;a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/28/too-big-too-fail-bill-unv_n_336554.html" target="_blank_"&gt;http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/28/too-big-too-fail-bill-unv_n_336554.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/u&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;u&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/u&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;u&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/u&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-502394152385499184?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/should-we-give-fed-more-power-or-less.html' title='Should We Give the Fed More Power ... Or Less?'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/502394152385499184/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/should-we-give-fed-more-power-or-less.html#comment-form' title='4 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/502394152385499184'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/502394152385499184'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/should-we-give-fed-more-power-or-less.html' title='Should We Give the Fed More Power ... Or Less?'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>4</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-6340522969279146987</id><published>2009-10-27T15:54:00.001-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-28T10:39:19.863-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Former Chairman of Citigroup: Restore Glass-Steagall</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The former chairman of Citigroup, John S. Reed, wrote a &lt;a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/23/opinion/l23volcker.html?_r=2"&gt;letter to the editor&lt;/a&gt; of the New York Times calling for a reinstatement of Glass-Steagall:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;As another older banker and one who has experienced both the pre- and post-Glass-Steagall world, I would agree with Paul A. Volcker (and also Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England) that some kind of separation between institutions that deal primarily in the capital markets and those involved in more traditional deposit-taking and working-capital finance makes sense.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But for Barney Frank, Tim Geithner and the rest of the boys, it is &lt;a href="http://www.house.gov/apps/list/press/financialsvcs_dem/presstitleone_102709.shtml"&gt;business as usual&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;Hat tip &lt;/span&gt;&lt;a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/"&gt;Barry Ritholtz&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-6340522969279146987?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/former-chairman-of-citigroup-restore.html' title='Former Chairman of Citigroup: Restore Glass-Steagall'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/6340522969279146987/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/former-chairman-of-citigroup-restore.html#comment-form' title='6 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/6340522969279146987'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/6340522969279146987'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/former-chairman-of-citigroup-restore.html' title='Former Chairman of Citigroup: Restore Glass-Steagall'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>6</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-6559128340111397098</id><published>2009-10-27T11:27:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-27T11:52:30.678-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Big Banks Are NOT More Efficient</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I have repeatedly pointed out that big banks are not more efficient than smaller banks.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For example, I previously noted that an &lt;a href="http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/03/news/small.banks.fortune/index.htm"&gt;article&lt;/a&gt; in Fortune concluded:&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;blockquote&gt;   &lt;p&gt;The largest banks often don't show the greatest efficiency. This now seems unsurprising given the deep problems that the biggest institutions have faced over the past year.&lt;/p&gt;      &lt;p&gt;"They actually experience diseconomies of scale," [Celent analyst Bart] Narter wrote of the biggest banks. "There are so many large autonomous divisions of the bank that the complexity of connecting them overwhelms the advantage of size."&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;Now, James Kwak has done some sleuthing and &lt;a href="http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/26/are-big-banks-better/"&gt;discovered&lt;/a&gt; that even Fed economists don't buy the bigger-is-more-efficient argument.  Kwak points out that New York Fed economist Kevin J. Stiroh found that most of the increase in efficiency during part of the time in which banks were consolidating was due to the &lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;increased use of information technologies&lt;/span&gt;:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;His main explanation for the productivity growth is not consolidation, but information technology: “The finding of steady productivity growth, in particular, is important since it is consistent with the idea that the massive investment in new technology is working to improve the performance of the banking industry.” This is not proven in this paper, but Stiroh went on to write a bunch of other papers on the link between information technology and productivity. For example, &lt;a href="http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/fipfednsr/115.htm" target="_blank"&gt;this paper&lt;/a&gt; (on the entire economy, not just banking) concludes: &lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;“IT-producing and IT-using industries account for virtually all of the productivity revival that is attributable to the direct contributions from specific industries, while industries that are relatively isolated from the IT revolution essentially made no contribution to the U.S. productivity revival. Thus, the U.S. productivity revival seems to be fundamentally linked to IT.”&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;Stiroh also wrote a &lt;a href="http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/szgworpap/0103.htm" target="_blank"&gt;paper&lt;/a&gt; on banks in Switzerland, concluding: &lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;“We find evidence of economies of scale for small and mid-size banks, but little evidence that significant scale economies remain for the very largest banks. Finally, evidence on scope economies is weak for the largest banks that are involved in a wide variety of activities. These results suggest few obvious benefits from the trend toward larger universal banks.”&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;The kicker is that Stiroh is the main source cited by those &lt;a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704500604574483222678425130.html"&gt;claiming&lt;/a&gt; that bigger banks produce greater efficiencies.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;The bottom line is that there is absolutely &lt;/span&gt;&lt;a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/white-house-still-defending-myths-about.html"&gt;no reason not to break up&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt; the too big to fails.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;@&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-6559128340111397098?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/big-banks-are-not-more-efficient.html' title='Big Banks Are NOT More Efficient'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/6559128340111397098/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/big-banks-are-not-more-efficient.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/6559128340111397098'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/6559128340111397098'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/big-banks-are-not-more-efficient.html' title='Big Banks Are NOT More Efficient'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-3951729628370157229</id><published>2009-10-27T10:35:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-27T11:06:13.442-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Tavakoli on AIG Swaps: "There’s No Way They Should Have Paid at Par. AIG Was Basically Bankrupt", and Goldman Sachs CFO Lied About AIG</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Derivatives expert Janet Tavakoli made the following comments by email about the Bloomberg &lt;a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&amp;amp;sid=a7T5HaOgYHpE"&gt;article&lt;/a&gt; "New York Fed’s Secret Choice to Pay for Swaps Hits Taxpayers": &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;“There’s no way they should have paid at par,” she says. “AIG was basically bankrupt.” &lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I &lt;a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Fgeorgewashington2.blogspot.com%2F+AIG+full+swaps&amp;amp;ie=utf-8&amp;amp;oe=utf-8&amp;amp;aq=t&amp;amp;rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&amp;amp;client=firefox-a"&gt;agree&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;By way of contrast, Tavakoli points out that:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;Citigroup Inc. agreed last year to accept about 60 cents on the dollar from New York-based bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. to retire protection on a $1.4 billion CDO. &lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Tavakoli also says that Goldman Sachs CFO David Viniar lied about AIG:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is a strong statement to say that a CFO lied to the public, and in my opinion, David Viniar, Goldman Sach’s CFO lied about Goldman’s exposure to AIG while the AIG bailout was in progress in September 2008.  Viniar spoke about risk management, but that is a separate issue from whether or not Goldman Sachs would have money at risk due to its direct business with AIG.  Goldman Sachs would have been out billions of dollars in collateral had a bankruptcy-like settlement been negotiated with AIG, and that is material.  &lt;/p&gt; This is what David Viniar said during his Sept 16, 2008 investor conference call: &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;b&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;b&gt;David Viniar &lt;/b&gt;&lt;i&gt;&lt;span style="font-style: italic;"&gt;- The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. - EVP, CFO &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/i&gt;Sure. Without giving exact numbers, let me just tell you how we think about this. AIG and Lehman, big important financial institution counterparties to Goldman Sachs. We did and we do a lot of business with both of them, as we do with all other major financial institutions. The way we do business with financial institutions is by having appropriate daily margin terms. That is how we are able to do the volume of business with each other that we do. And that goes for AIG, Lehman, and also Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, and Citi, and UBS, and Credit Suisse. That is how we manage our risk. In addition to the margin terms, we augment our risk management with appropriate hedging strategies. You heard at the beginning of my remarks that we believe one of the biggest challenges we have is to avoid large concentrated exposures; and we took that very much into account in managing our credit exposures to Lehman and to AIG, as well as we do with any other financial institution. &lt;b&gt;&lt;u&gt;&lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;Given that, what I would tell you is given the outcome at Lehman and whatever the outcome at AIG, I would expect the direct impact of our credit exposure to both of them to be immaterial to our results.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/u&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;u&gt;&lt;/u&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p class="MsoNormal"&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;u&gt;&lt;span style="font-weight: bold;"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/u&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-3951729628370157229?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='related' href='http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/tavakoli-on-aig-swaps-theres-no-way.html' title='Tavakoli on AIG Swaps: &quot;There’s No Way They Should Have Paid at Par. AIG Was Basically Bankrupt&quot;, and Goldman Sachs CFO Lied About AIG'/><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/3951729628370157229/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/tavakoli-on-aig-swaps-theres-no-way.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/3951729628370157229'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/3951729628370157229'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/tavakoli-on-aig-swaps-theres-no-way.html' title='Tavakoli on AIG Swaps: &quot;There’s No Way They Should Have Paid at Par. AIG Was Basically Bankrupt&quot;, and Goldman Sachs CFO Lied About AIG'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-8293606518734206692</id><published>2009-10-27T10:33:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-10-27T12:48:40.582-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Gross, Roubini, Ritholtz and Smithers All Forecast a Correction</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Bill Gross &lt;a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pimcos-gross-calls-top-of-rally-in-risky-assets-2009-10-27"&gt;says&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-gross-rally-over"&gt;&lt;/a&gt; assets are overvalued and the rally is over.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Nouriel Roubini - who called last year's crash - &lt;a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nouriel-Roubini-Big-Crash-indexuniverse-1323647540.html?x=0&amp;amp;.v=1"&gt;said&lt;/a&gt; last week that "a big crash is coming":&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;There’s a huge bubble, because we have zero rates in the &lt;st1:country-region st="on"&gt;&lt;st1:place st="on"&gt;U.S.&lt;/st1:place&gt;&lt;/st1:country-region&gt;, zero rates around the world and a huge carry trade. Everyone is borrowing at zero interest rates in dollars and getting a capital gain because the dollar is weakening, so they are borrowing at negative rates. And then they invest in risky assets:commodities, equities, credit. We’re creating a bigger bubble than before.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;It’s going to go crashing down, in an ugly way. That’s the basics of the argument...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;There is a wall of liquidity chasing assets. That liquidity can chase those assets higher for the time being until the huge carry trade—the asset bubble and the wall of liquidity—comes crashing down. You can still have all the risky assets going higher. Of course, the higher they go, the more they diverge from fundamentals, and the riskier the situation becomes. But eventually, if the recovery of the economy is going to be anemic, sub-par, below-trend and U-shaped, there is going to be a correction. And therefore my view is to stay away from risky assets. Stay in liquid assets. I don’t know when the correction is going to occur, it could be a while longer, but eventually it will be a pretty ugly correction, across many different asset classes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Barry Ritholtz, who has been very bullish for some time, is now &lt;a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/rally-getting-tired/"&gt;looking&lt;/a&gt; for a correction:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;I see a significant increase in the odds for a fairly substantial correction — in the 5 – 15% range — over the next 60 days.&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;5 factors are making me more cautious:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;1) Over the past 4 days, we have had 3 failed rallies;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;2) The number of New Highs on the major indices is contracting;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;3) Stocks seem to be reacting far less enthusiastically to &lt;em&gt;earnings beats &lt;/em&gt;then they had been;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;4) The Transports have been acting squirrelly lately;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;5) The S&amp;amp;P is forming an Ascending Wedge (more on this later today).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/annotated-bearish-wedge/"&gt;Here's&lt;/a&gt; the Ascending Wedge he's talking about.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;And, as Bloomberg &lt;a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;amp;sid=ac1KaPxa0Bso"&gt;writes&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;The U.S. Standard &amp;amp; Poor’s 500 Index is about 40 percent overvalued and headed for a drop as central banks pull back on securities purchases that pushed up asset prices, according to economist  Andrew Smithers.     &lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="noprint" align="right"&gt;&lt;b:if cond="data:blog.pageType == &amp;quot;item&amp;quot;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="background: transparent url(http://bloggerbuster.com/images/print.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; padding-left: 20px;"&gt;&lt;a href="javascript:window.print()"&gt;Print this post&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/b:if&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/53246864840716464-8293606518734206692?l=georgewashington2.blogspot.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/feeds/8293606518734206692/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/roubini-ritholtz-smithers-forecast.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/8293606518734206692'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/53246864840716464/posts/default/8293606518734206692'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/10/roubini-ritholtz-smithers-forecast.html' title='Gross, Roubini, Ritholtz and Smithers All Forecast a Correction'/><author><name>George Washington</name><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:extendedProperty xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' name='OpenSocialUserId' value='16023545849370446974'/></author><thr:total xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'>0</thr:total></entry></feed>