Timor Leste Perspectives

Horta President

2007-05-11T10:55:00.000+09:30

From ANONIMOUS:

It looks as tough I was right. Wasn't I?
You wrote that you " would not be surprised if Horta does not win also."Right now my question is whether you are surpised that he did in fact win by such a large majority as was mathematically expected?As I previously pointed out and on the basis of my view of the Timorese voters this is exactly how I expected it to happen.Any thoughts on how this might impact on the upcoming parliamentary elections in June?

Thank you for your comments. I value your opinion, please feel free to continue our constructive discussion. Below is my responce.

"É uma excelente escolha [Ó] Uma personalidade política e um resistente que dedicou toda a sua vida à causa da independência de Timor-Leste. É sem dúvida, um dos timorenses mais preparados para a presidência"

Diogo Freitas do Amaral

I quoted Diogo Freitas do Amaral a prominent Portuguese politician. He says of Horta that "It is an excellent choice. A political personality and resistant (leader) who dedicated his whole life to the cause of Timorese Independence”. It’s a great summary and no one denies that Ramos Horta deservingly is the winner and the President and thus I extend profound congratulations to him, after all he is my President also.

What has been important for Timor Leste is the act of democracy and the people of Timor Leste must also be congratulated in their peaceful conduct, Timor is definately not a "failed state". Another thing we all must consolidate in Timor Leste is the act of free speech, it is encouraging that people don’t share the same views as I do.

Jose Ramos Horta now has a great responsibility, and I hope you agree with me that as President-elect of Timor Leste he represents all Timorese including those who did not vote for him. The fact is, in face value Jose Ramos Horta was the most qualified and experienced politician/diplomat when in comparison to the other candidates. As I mentioned earlier he has a resume that would match any prominent politician leader in the world, he was the youngest person to address the security UN Security Council, a Nobel laureate, a Prime Minister, and now President.

It is crucial that Ramos Horta assumes the Presidency as the President of all people and not just those opposing FRETILIN and I am comforted by his own reconciliatory words that "It is going to be five years of hard work but I will work with Fretilin and make sure that the Fretilin leaders do not feel they have lost.” I think there were no losers in this Presidential elections.

The results are mathematically expected, but Democracy is politics and the will of the people is reflected in the results and not what we predict, hence I wasn’t willing to predict the winner but was reserved in saying that Horta was favourite.

The upcoming results will be interesting. But first here are my observations so far;

Jose Ramos Horta is the convenient choice. In the first round he only obtained 22% of votes. No other candidate was going to win the second round against Horta, it is evident that even if the other candidates opted to stay neutral Horta would still pick up their votes.

The voter is not anti FRETILIN as such but the voter is willing to try something new. Hence why in the first round Ramos Horta and the FRETILIN candidate did not dominate first round of elections, Lucia Lobato and especially Fernando Lasama did well beyond expectations.

The vote was regionalised in nature also, Xavier doing well in central as usual, Lamasa in Western, LuOlo in Eastern and Horta in Dili and surrounding districts. It was going to be difficult to see LuOlo picking up votes in the Central and Western districts with most candidates opting to support Horta

The individual perception of the candidate was also important. Ramos Horta is seen as an “independent”, he is the most qualified and experienced of all candidates. The Dili vote would have expressed this assertion.

The upcoming Legislative elections in my opinion will be dynamically different in nature. The vote will not rely heavily on an individual figure.

There will be the policies and programmes that will be presented to the people.

Possibly there will be issues such as the crisis that will become clearer as there will be the opportunity for open debate.

It would be interesting to see Xanana, Mari, Lasama, Mario in a national debate.

Significantly different is that Political Parties will rely on various figure/candidates to present themselves on a more personal level at a district and local level, here a candidate doesn’t represent all, but represents primarilly his/her constituency and represents all within a political party framework.

The CNRT vote is still relatively unknown. Are we to take Ramos Horta’s first round vote as that of CNRT’s? Will other political parties including FRETILIN lose their votes to CNRT? Not even Xanana has escaped tarnishing his image after the 2006 crisis, he will need to draw less attention to him in areas in the Eastern Districts.In the Western districts Xanana is still held in high regard.

We will see the emergence of PD in the western districts and in turn Timor Leste as a political force in the future, it has an opportunity to consolidate for the future or to rule with CNRT and risking losing prominence to CNRT. PD will need to act cautiously, joining CNRT in a coalition prematurely before the legislative election will run the risk of losing the gains made during the Presidential elections and it must be seen wether the vote was regionalised and would its candidates match those offered by ASDT, CNRT, FRETILIN or PSD.

The elections will decide the political future of Mari Alkatiri. If FRETILIN loses it will be difficult for him to retain the significant control he has over the political party, if FRETILIN win it will be likely he will be returned as Prime Minister should he accept the responsiblity. In the coming years there will be an emergence of FRETILIN’s younger generation gradually taking greater responsibilities within the party. There nees to be a re-energising of FRETILIN should it want to keep its standing within Timorese society, the electorate is definately different to the one in 2001/02.

Who will win the election? There will be no clear winner, but I think FRETILIN will relatively better that in the Presidential elections. What will happen is that there will be a coalition, between minor parties, CNRT will have much to gain in such a scenario. The Prime Minister will depend on whether FRETILIN wins outright or on which political party will gain most votes within a coalition.

Most likely Prime Minister; Xanana Gusmao, Mari Alkatiri, Estanislau Da Silva, Fernando Lasama or Mario Carrascalao.

Support for Ramos-Horta no guarantee of a win, say observers

2007-05-09T13:10:00.001+09:30

Support for Ramos-Horta no guarantee of a win, say observers
Abdul Khalik, The Jakarta Post, Dili
Despite having the support of most of the original candidates in the Timor Leste presidential race, observers are still unconvinced that Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta will win the run-off election against Fretilin's Francisco Guterres `Olo'.
They are cautious about suggesting that support from the leaders of five of the six political parties that contested the first round of voting will translate into support from their members, given Fretilin's strong traditional influence at the village level and the different interests of leaders at the district level.
Julio Tomas Pinto, a political and military expert at the Peace University in Dili, said that if everything went as calculated, Ramos-Horta would win the election because of the massive support base of the Timor Leste political elites.
"If we base our calculations on the first-round election then Ramos-Horta's total votes plus the votes of the other candidates who support him reach over 50 percent. But this is politics, not mathematics. So, it remains to be seen whether supporters at the grassroots levels follow their leaders" he told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.
Guterres and Ramos-Horta will face each other in the Wednesday run-off election. They garnered more than 29 percent and 22 percent of the vote in April's first round election, which eight candidates contested.
In third and fourth place were the Democratic Party's Fernandode Araujo and STDL's Francisco Xavier do Amaral with more than 18 percent and 12 percent respectively, while the only woman candidate, Lucia Maria Lobato of the Socialist Democrat Party (PSD), finished fifth, with close to 10 percent of the vote. Three other candidates -- Manuel Tilman, Avelino Maria Coelho da Silva and Joao Viegas Carrascalao -- managed to get less than 5 percent of the vote.
After intensive lobbying, Ramos-Horta managed to secure support from Lasama, do Amaral, Lucia Lobato, Maria Coelho da Silva and Joao Viegas Carrascalao while Manuel Tilman announced that he was throwing his support behind Guterres.
Do Amaral and Carracalao, who both attended Ramos-Horta's final campaign event in Dili on Sunday, announced in front of thousands of people their support for Ramos-Horta, while others sent their representatives to express their support for the prime minister.
"We should remember two things here in Timor Leste. One is that information at the highest level finds it difficult to reach the grassroots at the village levels because the country lacks information media, with most information passed on orally, opening the possibility of distortion. In big cities like Dili, people know new information quickly but not at the village level," Tomas Pinto said.
The second factor that could hinder the effectiveness of national leaders' advice to their followers, he added, was the fact that political leaders at the district level could have different interests.
"At several district and regencies, several figures from do Amaral's STDL and Lasama's Democrat Party, for instance, have vowed to support Guterres. Don't forget also the possibility that many people lost their motivation to vote as their candidates did not advance to the run off," Tomas Pinto said.
Another expert on Timor Leste Nugroho Katjasungkana agreed with Tomas Pinto that the race was still too close to decide, saying that followers could be different from their leaders.
"Another issue that separates do Amaral and Lasama from their supporters is racial sentiment. Many Timor Leste people want to have a native Timorese as their president, and have expressed their concern that Ramos-Horta is only half Timorese" he told the Post.
He argued that Fretilin still had traditional and militant supporters at the district and village levels, especially in three large districts in the western part of Timor Leste -- Baucau, Viqueque and Los Palos. Ten other districts are located in the eastern part of Timor Leste.
"Don't forget that most of the bureaucrats and village chiefs are Fretilin supporters," he said.
While several other experts on Timor Leste agreed that it would be a close race, most of them said that Ramos-Horta would win the election, considering his ability to attract young voters and the Democrat Party's followers following his order to stop the hunt for rebel leader Maj. Alfredo Reinado, a symbol of resistance of young Timorese, especially in 10 districts in the western part of the country.
"His position on Reinado and the ability to gain Lasama's and do Amaral's trust could be keys to winning the presidency," said a Dili-based observer, who asked not to be named.
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Responce

2007-05-09T10:43:00.000+09:30

This article is, in my view, a mix of interesting points and contradictions.There seems to be several contradictions within this article as well as with some of your previous articles.Regarding the interesting bits you wrote and I quote “What will be obvious is that if Ramos Horta wins the second round it won’t be because people want Ramos Horta to win, it will be the case that they don’t want LuOlo a FRETILIN candidate to win. “ Were you more intent on withdrawing all merit from Ramos Horta in the event of his victory or were you actually trying to point out that people people's dissatisfaction with the ruling party would be so great that regardless of the challenger they would be more interested in ensuring Luolo defeat? Either way can you appreciate that this is in fact the most damning statement anyone could make of Luolo and Fretilin?

I think it is obvious that no candidate won the popular vote such was the result of the first elections. LuOlo did well by finishing first in what was a mathematically impossible to attain a majority in the first round. What I insist is that during the first round the results clearly showed the votes was voted within regionalised lines. When I say if Horta wins it wont be because Ramos Horta popularity but it is because of the support gained from the other candidates. With existing rifts caused by the Lorosae, Loromonu issue an individual from Viqueque may well struggle in the Western Districts, hence I say that if a low voter turnout in the Western Districts will favour LuOlo and a low voter turnout in the Eastern District will favour Horta. It is my view that there will be a good turnout as shown by people’s embracement of Democracy.

Thus, intentionally or not (most likely not) you qualified an eventual victory by Ramos Horta as being in fact a popular vote against FRETILIN when you wrote “ they don’t want LuOlo a FRETILIN candidate to win”.

Look at it this way Xavier has on several occasions criticised Horta because of his race (mestico Timorese), however he has a personal dissatisfaction towards FRETILIN because FRETILIN would not recognise him as the “proclaimer of Independence”, most candidates even if they don’t like Horta they will urge people to vote for him even if they had reservations.

As the for the vote I still insist that it is taken on an individual perspective and based on regionalised allegiances and not on party lines. Possibly why the other candidates did not use party symbols as they may not want the voter to vote on outside the confines of the individual character rather than squarely facing off to FRETILIN on political party lines.

You proceed by writing: “If LuOlo wins it will be because of the rural vote, where access to information is limited and heavily reliant on grassroots campaigning, as the FRETILIN candidate this will give him some advantage.”Does this mean that rural voters are prone to making less informed decisions due to their limited access to information and for that matter Luolo stands to benefit mostly because of Fretilin's developed party machine rather than individual merit of the candidates? In other words more prone to being influenced by party propaganda?

If you ever read or follow the media in Timor Leste certainly you would recognised the bias and sensationalised reporting. Propaganda printed in newspapers like STL or Timor Post would have affected the voter in Dili into making misinformed rather than less informed decisions. In the districts any candidate would rely on organisational structure to disseminate information, this is where the advantage LuOlo has, its mere consequential that FRETILIN has this advantage.

In terms of merit I don’t think Horta deserves more to be President than any other candidate. Many people would have certainly voted more on impression of the individual rather than on merit. People have the impression that Horta is better qualified for this position, it is a general view in Dili if you talk to people.

As for the contradictions:Isn't this statement also contradicting some of your previous articles in which you argued the existence of a well understood distinction between presidential and parliamentary elections?You have previously argued that in the first the vote would be more influenced along the lines of people's preferences of candidates and perhaps on the basis of regional differences rather than of party preferences which you said would be the case in the latter thus allowing the possibility of a Fretilin victory then. Well, if the current quoted statement is now right would that not mean that this presidential election can very well be taken as a barometer of the voters' general mood in the upcoming parliamentary elections, something previously dismissed by you?

In my opinion the legislative election will be different, mainly because people will still judge the individual.

Then you state that “...there is no certainty that either candidate is assured of victory, fair enough Horta is favourite but he will need to acquire all the votes of the other losing candidates, which is improbable.” However, doesn't Pomez Ruiz' opinion that "Most people already made up their minds in the first election," which you echoed in your own words mean that Ramos Horta is almost certain to win the election given that 72.11% of the voters in the first round already made up their minds that they did not want a Fretilin candidate for president and aditionally those votes have already been pledged to Horta even if only by the loosing candidates in which those 72% placed their trust?

The fact is around 78% also made their minds that they didn’t want Ramos Horta to be President, as I say Horta is favourite as he was favourite in the first round to at least finish first. I would prefer to wait for the results itself, but I continue to say that I would not be surprised if Horta does not win also.

I certainly would like to hear your views on the issues I have just raised.

Good points raised though. They are relevant, I am taking a more open minded approach to this elections.

Final Points

2007-05-07T12:32:00.000+09:30

By Thursday morning we will have a clear picture of who will be the next President of Timor Leste. Ramos Horta's final campaign in Dili shows that he still commands a lot of support in Dili. With around 3,000 supporters it was a strong showing compared to LuOlo's campaign in Dili which only attracted a mere 500 people.

Horta proclaimed that "victory is assured" amongst those present were the members of the opposition and the other candidates who have thrown their support behind Horta. There wouldn't be many people arguing against Ramos Horta as the favourite and if he was referring to Dili victory a certainty. What will be obvious is that if Ramos Horta wins the second round it won’t be because people want Ramos Horta to win, it will be the case that they don’t want LuOlo a FRETILIN candidate to win. The underlying fact stemming from this elections is that no candidate came out of the first round with a clear majority over another, whoever will be President will not claim the popular vote.

However the votes from the central and western districts of Timor will be crucial in deciding the winner, LuOlo being from Viqueque may influence the voter.

Voter turnout will be crucial a low turnout in the Eastern district will favour Horta where a lower turnout in the Western districts favouring LuOlo.

If LuOlo wins it will be because of the rural vote, where access to information is limited and heavily reliant on grassroots campaigning, as the FRETILIN candidate this will give him some advantage.

Having said this there is no certainty that either candidate is assured of victory, fair enough Horta is favourite but he will need to acquire all the votes of the other losing candidates, which is improbable.

The general feeling is that most people in Timor Leste have made up their minds on who they will vote for and the campaign rallies won’t be a true reflection of the voting reality.

Whatever the result it will be a step forward in resolving the crisis and establishing the scene for an intriguing Legislative elections.

The article below is a well written article about the general feelings the public have about the second round of voting.

Source: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Date: 06 May 2007
Save Food more important than East Timor campaign
DILI, May 6, 2007 (AFP) - Pius Soares sits idly under a tree in a refugee camp with his friends. Like thousands of East Timorese waiting to return home after last year's deadly violence, he has time on his hands.

How he uses that time does not extend, however, to attending the political rallies staged not far from the camp in Dili as East Timor's two presidential candidates slug it out ahead of Wednesday's election.

"It is more important for us to look for food," the 34-year-old said.

"All we want is that security is re-established by the new president, so we can all return to our homes."

His friend Carlito agreed, adding he was afraid to attend the rallies held by the powerful Fretilin party in case they turned violent.

"Not only are we not making any money (by living in the camps), but we also risk dying in vain (by attending)," said Carlito, who gave only one name.

Apathy is running high in the troubled nation ahead of the runoff vote for the presidency, the first since East Timor won independence in 2002 after 24 years of Indonesian occupation.

Colourful posters and banners are plastered all over the capital promoting Nobel laureate Jose Ramos-Horta, the current prime minister, and his Fretilin rival Francisco "Lu-Olo" Guterres.

But their rallies are failing to draw large crowds.

"For many, especially in the regions, it is a lack of information about the second round," said Joao Mariano Saldanha, head of the Timor Institute for Development Studies.

"For others it is simply the fact that both candidates are already in the government but have so far failed to take the country out of turmoil."

Just 500 people turned up for a Guterres rally in a field in the capital Saturday, mostly supporters of Fretilin, the resistance movement that fought for independence from Portugal and later Indonesia.

"For Dili, this is nothing," EU observer Javier Pomes Ruiz said.

About 300 people began to gather Sunday on a football field in Dili to hear Ramos-Horta speak. Minibuses with supporters using loudspeakers drove through streets trying to drum up attendance.

Pomes Ruiz said the size of the rallies was unlikely to be reflected at the ballot box come polling day.

"Most people already made up their minds in the first election," he said of the April 9 poll when thousands queued for hours to cast their votes.

Guterres and Ramos-Horta are contesting the runoff because neither won a majority in that first round vote.

Tension has been simmering in the country since ethnic violence erupted in May last year, killing 37 people and forcing 150,000 to flee their homes.

Several thousand foreign peacekeepers were brought in to restore calm and remain on alert amid fears of unrest.

Soares said that despite his disinterest in the campaign, he would vote on Wednesday in the hope the new president restored security.

He and his family of six have been too scared to return home to Audian, a volatile area of Dili since the violence.

Carlito, who like most other refugees has been unable to work since fleeing to the camp, said job creation was also essential.

Asked who they would vote for, they replied in unison: "It's a secret."

Across town at another refugee camp, Anicetto and his friends played cards under the shade of a tarpaulin.

They have also refused to attend rallies or listen to the speeches.

"Why should we go to the campaign rallies only to listen to them insulting each other?" asked Anicetto to nods of approval from fellow players.

But they too will cast their votes. "I hope, whoever wins, that he will be a good driver in steering this nation," one said. "Like a car, of course the other components count, like the wheel, the engine and the brakes, but if the driver is not good and cannot fix them, then it is futile."

bs/tha/km AFP 060744 GMT 05 07

Responce

2007-05-07T12:23:00.000+09:30

Are you in Timor or outside of Timor?

"I have been in Timor for 5 years now.'

Did you follow the presidential debate between Horta and Lu Olo?

"Yes I did, like many others I was surprised by LuOlo's performance."

What's you opinion on that?

"I have posted a summary of the debate earlier, I share the same opinion as the author.

I have been reading reports from Horta's and Lu Olo's camp. Obviously either one of them claimed victory during this debate. Sadly no independent media reported anything on this important debate.

"I think the debate speaks for itself, there was no need to claim victory on anyone’s part."

As for any spelling errors, I couldn't care less. I understand the message you put across anyway. Good work. Keep up with the analysis.

"This is a blog, I am not writing an academic essay so I am not going to care about minor spelling errors that escape my attention. As I said anyone finding spelling errors can put it to my attention."

"It’s good that you understand what I am putting forward."

"Thanks for your support."

Responce to Anonymous

2007-05-04T13:04:00.000+09:30

"political manuvering has taken precedent"

Corrections:

1- Manouvering and not manuvering
2- Has taken PRECEDENCE not precedent.

Anyway, after sometime reading your articles I've just come to conclude that your so called "analysis" are nothing but another component of political propaganda produced by Fretilin's well developed party machine you keep reminding us about.

By the way, no amount of wishful thinking can change the reality and all signs are clear in pointing out that:

1- Despite its well developed "party machine" Fretilin faired poorly in the first round election. This clearly shows that the electorate is ready for an alternative to Fretilin.

It was probably not the ideal result for FRETILIN but nonetheless it was still positive. With 8 candidates mathematically it would of been close to impossible to win the first round of votes, so relevant a factor that if Xanana was to run again for the Presidency even he would have not won the first round (what would such a result mean since he tallied 80% in the 2002 elections?).

It is important for Timor Leste to always have an alternative to FRETILIN .Timor Leste needs constructive opposition not the type of opposition we have seen in the last four years. Whoever ends up being the opposition it will be up to the people to decide.

2- Although Ramos-Horta has no "party machine" as you pointed out he managed to 'grab' 88 thousand votes. That's aproximately (APPROXIMATELY “its pointless isn’t it”) 24 thousand votes less than Luolo/Fretilin.

Ramos Horta has extensive media networks both local and international, probably what had helped him do well in Dili. Ramos Horta was only 11,000 votes away from becoming third behind Lasama. Without the Dili vote he would have struggled to come second. In a closely contested elections 24,000 votes is significant.

There are two points to take note of here.

One is that Fretilin performed poorly and has fallen out of favour with the Timorese people despite having the most developed party structure, machine, resources not to mention the history.

Here you describe well the “party machine” that is FRETILIN.

It is of my opinion that the Legislative elections will be the best testament as to whether FRETILIN is out of favour with the Timorese people. Such is the differences in the dynamics of the Presidential and Legislative elections, feel free to read my past posts on why this is so.

The other point is that Ramos-Horta was in fact the big winner in the first round SINCE being an independent without a "PARTY MACHINE" he came a close second. Now given that he was really running against the historical party FRETILIN (not just Luolo) then his results must be seen as a major success obtained by an INDIVIDUAL against such an historic ORGANIZATION.

As I have mentioned earlier the dynamics of the Presidential elections is different to that of the Legislative. Here the voter also takes into consideration two factors the individual qualities of a candidate and also which district the candidate is from. In terms of individual persona and qualifications, LuOlo as an individual comes from humble beginnings without a high profile as Ramos Horta, a Noble Laureate with unquestionable qualifications supported by Xanana (CNRT), some members of the clergy and most local and international media outlets still was unable to lead first round of votes. Note that Xanana won in 2002 without a “Party Machine”.

Horta mentioned that everywhere he went he was welcomed he mentioned many districts, however he fared really poorly in the districts outside of Dili bar 2. The district vote was a regionalised vote, see my previous postings. A positive is that Horta did receive the support of most other candidates, if Horta wins will he be the President of the people or President of the current opposition such will be his reliance to repay the support he received.

So lets face, unless something goes seriously wrong with the electoral mechanisms and procedures then Ramos-Horta will undoubtedly emerge as the next President of RDTL after May 9. No amount of wishful thinking or misguided analysis will change that.

Looking for excuses already, this sentence is unconstructive, the electoral process was under great scrutiny and will come under greater scrutiny in the second round. Given the CNE was obviously not impartial and prejudicial to LuOlo, the presence of Independent observers both National and International observers are present, to manipulate the result is highly unlikely.

Every Timorese must have faith in the electoral system. Given the circumstances the Presidential elections was a success, the election is no way as controversial as the Nigerian Presidential vote.

I share the same opinion that Horta is favourite but in a democracy the vote is what counts at the end of the day no candidate is assured a victory, therefore I would not be surprised if LuOlo wins. The Presidential election is still very much up for grabs.

If you decide not to allow this comment to be made public that's also fine with me. So long as you read it.

I should start posting the offensive comments directed at Ramos Horta, Xanana, LuOlo and Mari Alkatiri. Anyway, give me a break if you care to read the previous posting I have exchanged views with other people who do not share the same opinion. You shouldn’t jump to conclusions just because someone has a different view to yours there is no need to be taken personally and be so defensive, I freely publish my opinion why not respond to yours.

Feel free to correct my spelling errors. So long as you understand what I write.

Round 2

2007-05-02T15:12:00.000+09:30

It’s only 8 days until the next round of the Presidential election to be contested between Jose Ramos Horta and Franciso Guterres “Lu Olo”.

Approaches in campaigning for the second round have changed and political manuvering has taken precedent over mass rallies. Horta has a slight upper hand by receiving the support of five of the previous candidates importantly that of Francisco Xavier, Lucia Lobato and Fernando Lasama all of whom polled well in the first round of voting. Lu Olo has gained the support of one candidate Manuel Tilman. In light of this many consider Jose Ramos Horta as favourite to win the second round of voting, however there are other factors which will also play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of second round voting ensuring this round will be closer than what most people expect.

Voter turnout will certainly be a decisive factor, it is already explained very well in http://raiketak.wordpress.com/. A lower turnout will favour Lu-Olo. FRETILIN is well organised and will rally their sympathisers to vote for LuOlo again whereas Horta does not have a party machine to work for him relying on the work of the minor parties. It is also evident that both LuOlo and Horta do not appeal to some voters who will decide not to participate in the vote.

An important facet of democracy is that no vote is guaranteed, even with the support of the candidates it does not necessarily mean Horta will get all the votes of the losing candidates. The fact is Horta is not that popular in the districts as his supporters thought, having done well below expectation. Having said this LuOlo will need to attain more votes in the Western districts of Timor where voters have a tendency to vote on regionalised lines.

In terms of campaigning the candidates have concentrated on making contact with the electoral on a personal level. Allegations has also been the feature campaigning for both candidates, Horta blaming FRETILIN for violence while FRETILIN has countered with allegations that Horta is similar to Suharto.

Ramos Horta has also publicly called off the search for renegade Alfredo Reinaldo, although no formal request has been made by the Timorese government to the International forces to halt current operations (http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=264317&print=true). This move is seen as a political manoeuvre and a move to win the support of Fernando Lasama whose PD party support Alfredo. However it is unproven as to how much influence Alfredo has had in this election so far, it is obviously a gamble that exemplifies Horta’s inconsistencies and inability during the crisis to finding a universally accepted solution to the prevailing issues.

What has certainly been pleasing is the balanced International media reporting coming from Timor Leste. During the crisis and the first round of elections the media were overly critical of the FRETILIN leadership and shied away from reporting criticisms pointed towards Horta. Where Ramos Horta enjoyed a literal monopoly of the International media in the first round of Presidential elections, the second round has seen more consistency where reporting favouring Horta and LuOlo are both published.

An important part of the election campaign was the debate between Horta and LuOlo. Those following the TVTL televised debate were surprised at LuOlo outperforming Ramos Horta. It was also surprising that Horta called a press conference straight after the debate and attacked FRETILIN possibly trying counter obvious gains made by LuOlo in the debate. Horta is well known in Timor Leste for his short temper.

Because of Horta’s reliance on the other candidates he will be compromised and will be expected to work within the interests of the other candidates and political parties if elected President. Whereas LuOlo being a senior member of FRETILIN will have more leverage to carry out his works independently.

There is no denying Horta is favoured to win the elections but there would be no surprise if LuOlo ends up being the next President of Timor Leste.

The TVTL debate

2007-04-28T16:45:00.000+09:30

Is Lu Olo the ‘true diplomat’?

- from a Dili correspondent

FRETILIN leaders and militants are in high spirits tonight, after
Timor-Leste’s televised Presidential debate. Their candidate Lu’Olo
clearly out performed his opponent Ramos Horta on each of the five
questions asked, on issues ranging from international relations to the
current crisis and the priorities for development. The debate has many
people wondering why Horta has been able to dominate media reports of the
election, especially in Australia.

Lu’Olo was objective, and answered each question with confidence”, one
younger supporter told me soon after the debate ended. “Mr Horta was
vague, he strayed off the question, and he tried to be offensive. This
will not go well with Timorese voters, who expect political candidates to
behave with civility to each other.”

“Lu Olo only went to Fourth Grade at school, and Dr Horta has a Ph D,”
said another. "But every time Horta spoke, Lu’Olo had a better comment”.

Characteristically, Lu Olo made only one brief mention of his twenty four
years as a guerrilla fighter for independence. Instead, his answers
focused on the basic commitments from his election platform. By contrast,
Horta spoke at length about himself, about his personal relations with
world leaders, his closeness to the Catholic Church, and his status as a
founder of FRETILIN itself.

FRETILIN leaders in Dili were surprised by the continued use by Horta of
the anti communist propaganda which was used by Indonesia against the
independence movement. He called FRETILIN ‘red rooster’ in Tetum, local
slang for communist. He also referred to FRETILIN as a Marxist party,
though he knows this has not been true for over twenty years. And he
personally attacked one of FRETILIN’s younger generation leaders,
Secretary of State for Youth and Sport, José Manuel Fernandes, as a “red
FRETILIN comrade.” Speaking with supporters after the debate, Lu’olo
himself referred to these tactics as “straw”, a local expression for
worthless.

Horta spent some time talking of his personal relationship with Australian
Prime Minister John Howard. “Horta said he can pick up the phone anytime
and ring Howard,” said Filomena De Almeida, from FRETILIN’s Information
Unit, who spent many years as a refugee in Australia. “This is a strange
thing to use as a qualification to lead an independent country, which
prides itself on its non-alignment. What happens if John Howard loses the
next election?”

Horta mentioned his close personal relationships with several other
leaders, including the Philippines President Aroyo and Indonesia’s
President Yudiono. His most blatant attempt at name dropping was when he
referred to his friendship with US Democrat leader, Nancy Pelosi,
mentioning her daughter had stayed with him for her holidays a few years
ago.

“The irony was that Horta was claiming credit for his diplomatic
experience, but Lu Olo was the one who behaved more like a true diplomat”,
said FRETILIN Minister Jose Teixeira, who led the oil negotiations with
Australia. “Lu Olo was dignified, civil, and respectful, which is how a
Head of State should be.” Lu Olo himself said that Horta misunderstood
international relations, if he thought it could be based on personal
contacts. And he reminded his opponent that the Indonesian President had
said he would happily work with whoever won.

Clear differences emerged between the candidates on the question of the
Constitutional separation of powers. Horta steered clear of the subject of
his defence of the armed rebels, Reinado and Rai Los, whom he is
attempting to recruit to his highly unlikely coalition of supporters. Lu
Olo demanded that the President respect the judiciary’s independence and
use the powers he has under the Constitution to resolve the crisis. At one
point, Horta referred to the separation of powers, and the separation of
Church and state, as ‘modern’ ideas which do not belong in Timor- Leste.
“As a Catholic, I have three leaders”, said Horta, “the Pope and two
Bishops. I met the Bishops every week. The Church has five hundred years
experience in Timor-Leste.”

“We Timorese have been here since the beginning,” retorted Lu’Olo.

Horta attacked the record of the first government led by FRETILIN’s Mari
Alaktiri, but he was careful not to denigrate Alakatiri’s achievement is
establishing the petroleum fund, considered a model of international best
practice. When Horta tried to argue that the oil funds should be spent
more quickly, Lu’Olo reminded him the country had a National Development
Plan, and that the law on the petroleum fund, which set the mechanisms for
controlling the oil expenditure, was adopted by unanimous vote of all
parties in the parliament.

The closing comments were perhaps the clearest indication of the
difference between the two men. “Don’t vote for me because I was a founder
of FRETILIN,” said Horta. “Choose me because I am a Nobel peace laureate.”

Lu’Olo thanked the people for voting peacefully in the first round, and
reminded Horta that he was the only candidate who won votes in every
district. “I am a FRETILIN candidate,” he said, “from the party that
fought for independence for twenty five years. This is a big heritage. I
give honour to those who died and I want to continue to serve their widows
and orphans. That’s why I accepted – to defend the people, to defend our
country and defend our national sovereignty.”

Still struggling for independence: elections in Timor Leste

2007-04-27T13:58:00.000+09:30

http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=5780

Still struggling for independence: elections in Timor Leste
By Tim Anderson - posted Friday, 27 April 2007

Independence is not an end, it is the beginning of self rule. Kofi Annan, May 2002.
Australian representations of elections in Timor Leste have reflected the wishful thinking of an elite. Media coverage of the Presidential elections focused almost exclusively on the pro-Australian candidate, Jose Ramos Horta, and commentaries over a future government keenly search for a Xanana-led coalition that might upset the currently Fretilin dominated parliament.
The fact that Francisco (“Lu Olo”) Guterres, the man who won the first Presidential round, was not seriously profiled by any Australian media outlet should give us pause to reflect on the quality of information provided. To win the first round while opposed by the incumbent president, the incumbent prime minster, the hierarchy of the Catholic Church and the Australian elite is quite an achievement. It shows that Fretilin as a force for independence still resonates strongly with the East Timorese people.

There was a great deal of media speculation over possible election fraud, pointing a finger at Fretilin. This was remarkable given the high level of international observers and the open anti-Fretilin bias of the electoral authority. Electoral chief and Catholic Church representative Martinho Gusmao publicly endorsed opposition leader Fernando Araujo before the election, then made a false claim that votes in pro-Fretilin Baucau were massively over-subscribed. European Union observers contradicted him.

What of Lu Olo? He was a guerilla leader for the entire resistance period, Speaker of Parliament for over five years and remains a loyal member of Fretilin. Mari Alkatiri, the former prime minister reviled by the Australian media, is still General Secretary of the party. So while the coup attempt and foreign intervention have undoubtedly shaken confidence in Fretilin, the first round has demonstrated that no other party in Timor Leste has anything close to its support.
Recall that an alliance of sorts was formed at the time of the first Presidential election of April 2002, where Fretilin agreed to support Xanana Gusmao, provided that he ran as an independent. Xanana’s only opposition was Francisco Xavier do Amaral from the ASDT (Timorese Social Democratic Association). Fretilin had already gained an outright majority in the August 2001 elections for a constituent assembly, which went on to become the nation’s first parliament.

Prior to the 2006 crisis, a major political achievement was the effective combination of the strategic vision of Alkatiri’s Fretilin, the charisma of Xanana and the diplomacy of Ramos Horta. Despite a tiny budget (increasing in 2007, with oil revenue) they began the institutions of a modern state, expanded education, rehabilitated their rice fields, developed a major health program and clawed back several billion dollars in oil and gas revenue from the Howard Government.

Alkatiri attracted most Australian hostility, particularly over the protracted oil and gas talks. Ramos Horta was the weak link. I have detailed elsewhere (Timor Leste: the Second Australian Intervention) how he attempted three compromises, all of which would have pleased Howard and Downer but resulted in less revenue for his country. Little wonder he emerged as the Australian favourite.

Xanana maintained an aloofness from party politics, a stance which aided his major political project of reconciliation. He forgave the Indonesian generals (despite a lack of repentance on their side) and attempted to reintegrate former militia members into local communities.
However this aloofness evaporated in the crisis, as Xanana indirectly supported coup leader Alfredo Reinado and bitterly attacked Fretilin. As president he demanded the resignation of Mari Alkatiri, using a video copy of a notorious ABC program which had relied on the word of one of Reinado’s allies to accuse Alkatiri of arming a “hit squad” to kill his political opponents, and of having already murdered a number of them. A UN investigation into the crisis (Report of the United Nations Independent Special Commission of Inquiry for Timor-Leste (PDF 439KB)) later discredited this story.

The Australian media, however, clings to the “hit squad” theory, gaining some comfort from the conviction of Alkatiri ally and former Interior Minister Rogerio Lobato for the offence of distributing police weapons to civilians. Lobato, appealing his conviction, maintains these acts were justified during a coup attempt, when the police force had disintegrated.
With coup leader Reinado still at large, but apparently no longer considered a political asset or a threat by either Xanana or the Australians, the politics of Timor Leste seem to have returned to a somewhat more “normal” footing. But it is a political process badly damaged by violence, dislocation and mistrust.

Ramos Horta may still win the Presidency from Lu Olo in the second round. However this depends more on voter perceptions than on the small opposition parties’ ability to deliver “blocs” of votes, as in a more class-based party system. Ramos Horta has international recognition but Lu Olo is the “grassroots” candidate.

Many of the epithets thrown at Mari Alkatiri - that he was arrogant and an exile during the struggle - now apply to Ramos Horta, not Lu Olo. In any case, a Ramos Horta presidency would not be a major barrier to a Fretilin-led government. East Timorese are used to having a figurehead, non-Fretilin president, and a Fretilin government.

Xanana Gusmao’s descent from the presidency to party politics is a far more uncertain path. His role in the crisis and his open anti-Fretilin hostility has damaged his own standing, as well as that of Fretilin. After his passive support for the coup, much of the army leadership will not trust him. His attempt to recreate a “CNRT” coalition, using the initials of the earlier coalition which included Fretilin, is a gamble which depends upon cobbling together a number of small parties whose only common theme is opposition to Fretilin.

On the other side, Fretilin will have suffered from their apparent inability to guarantee stability and the persistent attempts to blame the government for the coup. Fretilin may not be able to regain the outright parliamentary majority it has held since 2001. On the other hand, the Presidential first round tells us Fretilin is still the major political force in the country. Its vote could still exceed 40 per cent in the parliamentary elections. The competition would then be between a Fretilin-led coalition and a less coherent Xanana-led coalition.

Personalities apart, neither Xanana nor Ramos Horta offer much of a strategic alternative to Fretilin. Of course, both participated in many of the Fretilin-led government’s campaigns, including those which sought to bring in new development partners (for example, China for oil and gas and Cuba for health).

Some differences have emerged. Ramos Horta has said he favours “greater privileges” for foreign investors, and recently proposed a radical reduction in business taxes and tariffs. This would, however, increase government reliance on oil and gas revenues. Xanana’s one recent suggestion has been to break the controlled release of revenue from the Petroleum Fund. So the main policy departure of a Ramos Horta-Xanana-led coalition would seem to be spending up the oil wealth faster.

Fretilin, for its part, has an experienced group of ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Estanislau da Silva, several senior women ministers including Maria Boavida and Ana Pessoa, a strong party machine, widespead membership and has shown its skills in coalition building. Even with an absolute parliamentary majority, Fretilin recruited independent MPs, such as Health Minister (now Deputy PM) Rui Araujo, Finance Minister Fernanda Borges, Education Minister Armindo Maia, Labor Minister Arsénio Bano and Foreign Minister Jose Ramos Horta into the government.

A Fretilin-led coalition government thus seems a more likely outcome of the coming parliamentary elections than a Xanana-led coalition. The return of Mari Alkatiri as prime minister is also possible. Just how the constellation of forces that deposed Alkatiri would react to this is not clear. Expectations have been raised by the intervention and anti-Fretilin push. In particular, it seems unlikely that Xanana imagines he is trading in his presidency to become opposition leader.

http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=5780

The Amazing Alfredo

2007-04-24T11:22:00.000+09:30

Ramos-Horta calls off search for rebel
April 23, 2007
http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/RamosHorta-calls-off-search-for-rebel/2007/04/23/1177180566345.html
East Timor's acting prime minister has ordered foreign troops to stop looking for a fugitive rebel soldier wanted on murder charges, a move that could win the politician votes in upcoming elections.
Jose Ramos-Horta, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate who is running for president in the violence-plagued nation, made himself unpopular by ordering the arrest of Alfredo Reinado several months ago.
A former military police commander, Reinado is wanted over a series of fatal shootings a year ago, when clashes between rival security forces spiralled into gang warfare that left 37 dead and sent 155,000 fleeing their homes.
Calm returned with the arrival of Australian-led forces, but clashes between young men in the capital, Dili, continue to claim lives.
Reinado has eluded arrest since foreign troops launched a deadly attack on his mountain camp six weeks ago and his defiance of government authorities has turned him into a symbol of resistance for some gang members.
Ramos-Horta has long encouraged Reinado to turn himself in and - though his decision to stop the operation could win support ahead of next month's run-off vote for president - he said his only goal was to find a peaceful solution to East Timor's unrest.
Reinado, speaking by mobile phone from an unknown location, praised Ramos-Horta's decision.
But critics - including Ramos-Horta's opponent in the upcoming vote - said the acting prime minister should have sought parliamentary approval before holding meetings with rebels. END

The Amazing Alfredo

There is no doubt that the move by Jose Ramos Horta to call off the search for fugitive former military commander Alfredo Reinaldo is political in nature. There are some people who are claiming that Ramos Horta’s inability to win the first round of voting during the Presidential poll attributed to his decision to order the forceful arrest of Alfredo, where the subsequent military operation contributed to the deaths of 5 of Reinaldo’s supporters. What was baffling was the ability of Alfredo Reinaldo to elude capture.

Although it is my opinion that the Presidential elections will not illustrate whether Alfredo is a factor in the overall results as voters may have voted on regional preferences for a candidate rather than exclusively on regionalised divisions stemming from the crisis. For example, Xavier did well in Central districts, Lasama in Western districts, Horta in Dili and surrounding districts and LuOlo in the Eastern districts. However it is in the legislative vote where votes will be taken on Party lines we will see how much influence Alfredo has had.

Anyway on Alfredo, those who know the terrain where Alfredo was holed up would understand the immense difficulty of escape, especially when you’re surrounded by heavily well equipped Australian soldiers. Photographs of Alfredo shows that he was in the old Portuguese fortress-like administrative area of Same. There is only one entry point via a sealed access to the top of a hill making it well suited for a defensive stand. The area is small, larger than Maubisse Pousada but simmilar in terrain, for someone to escape they need to have jumped quite a long way down. The amazing escape, I would love to talk to Alfredo one day and ask him how he escaped.

After the attacks the gangs who have running amuck for some time in Dili, suddenly started supporting Alfredo. Again amazing because it raises the questions about who in reality are the ones behind these “gangs” that have been causing so much security issues in Dili even to the point where warring gangs signed a pact of cooperation in support of Alfredo.

What should concern people is the inability of Ramos Horta to take a decisive decision and resolve the issue of Alfredo Reinaldo. There exists the consensus that the Alkatiri led Government failed to resolve the issue adequately. Ramos Horta even as Foreign Minister and then Prime Minister has played a significant role in trying to resolve the Alfredo affair but has continued to be amazingly unsuccessful. During May 2006 Ramos Horta, Alfredo and Xanana met at Balibar, that meeting never resolved anything, in fact a short time later Alfredo attacks the FFDTL at Fatu Ahi. There was the order to arrest Alfredo after the events at Fatu Ahi but after the International intervention force arrived and with continuing protests in Dili the Alfredo issue began to subside as the calls for Mari’s resignation began to take prominence. I am not going to say whether Maris resignation was justified or not but Alfredo played a major role in forcing Mari’s resignation.

There were opportunities to arrest Alfredo’s or keep him under cantonment in Maubisse again there was a failure to decisively act and resolve the issue. Then there was the arrest for illegal possession of weapons and the amazing escape from Becora prison conveniently the same day the Dateline program on the downfall of Mari was to be shown in Australian television.
Alfredo then later was at Aifu, Ermera under cantonment for the second time again nothing substantial was done to resolve the issue and things turned for the worse when Alfredo got hold of guns in Bobonaro whether he was given the arms voluntarily or taken them by force is still questionable.

It does not matter where one stands on the issue. The need to resolve the Alfredo affair is critical to Timor Leste’s future security. There is already a precedence set for people taking up arms against a government. If groups or some one has any grievances with the government they will only need to hide out in the mountains of Timor Leste heavily armed and hold the Government or prominent leaders such as Ramos Horta to ransom. Whether it is politically in nature or not Ramos Horta should be given the chance to take a definitive stance and resolving the issue once and for all.

Responce Loi Rubi

2007-04-21T13:40:00.000+09:30

Mubere, I reluctantly accept the logic of your response in your previous posting, but I can appreciate where you are coming from. What I found most disappointing is your latest piece on "Timor's Leader: Xanana" as an act of oversimplying the matter without taking into account the politcial conjencture of the 1908s, 90s and 2000s. This is to me a reductionist comment! Hence, a balanced assessment is absent! Your question in the last paragraph of your posting may be answered by a clean cut response in Xanana's latest interview with STL. I would be interested to see what are your reactions of the proposed debate that Xanana is calling for to have a face-to-face appearance broadcast widely, and let the public assess who's right and/or wrong. My view is that Alkatiri is using all avenues the best he can by proposing Lu Olo as his "riding horse/cavalo mandado" in this presidential bid to advance Alkatiri's long term interests. The lack of appearence of Lu Olo lately suggests that Lu Olo lacks public appeal and charisma. I for one, would be keen to hear your views - supposed frank and unbiased analysis - of the latest allegation of Xanana towards Alkatiri and Lu Olo. I would be interested to see what Alkatiri and Lu Olo's views are on that interview. If there is no rebuttal in the spirit of transparency, it reminds me to an expression in Portuguese Keep up your good work !Loi Rubi

Thank you Loe Rubi,

The comments put forward about Xanana are based on my views. I don’t think it is important in political context to regurgitate about Xanana’s important contributions as a resistance leader, I think we all share the common view of immense contributions made by Xanana, you can read about it on Wikpedia.

In my opinion Xanana is not absolute. Timor’s history of Independence was part of an evolutionary process, to recognise Xanana as the most prominent Timorese figure will not address the underlining political issues that confronts us today. Timor may have to face the fact that the symbol that we have all help to create during the 1980’s, 90’s and 2000 may not in effect have the same national appeal as he may have during that period. One of the questions I ask myself is, if Xanana is really as popular as he was when he was the charismatic resistance leader or when he obtained 82% in the 2002 Presidential elections. If he is not why such a man who many considered to be a South East Asian Mandela appear to be losing appeal amongst some of his own people. So when I wrote about Xanana I was first restricted by how much I would write but I wanted to put it in a political and not a biographical context. I wanted to evoke passion from those supporting Xanana and those who are not.

A confrontational approach it seems is what Xanana has been seeking from FRETILIN. It is clear that Xanana has wanted a response from FRETILIN since he received "no comments" after his publicised essays about the rumours of a coup being undertaken. I think FRETILIN has been mature in the way it has responded to Xanana’s comments by ignoring it. FRETILIN would continue to ignore Xanana not because of “Quem cala consente" (who is quiet consents) but because it is a political move. I suspect FRETILIN's decision not to directly confront Xanana is more reflective of the popular tetun term”asu hatenu deit” (The dog only barks) attitude i.e. who cares mentality, whether this approach will haunt FRETILIN we will see it in the Legislative elections.

Xanana’s comments in the STL are political in nature and obviously he will elevate the profile of CNRT before the legislative elctions at any opportunity given and wants a direct confrontation with FRETILIN i.e. creating an evil vs good tug of war which will benefit Xanana.

Xanana’s opinion in the STL is for FRETILIN to respond to, but I think this will be done by FRETILIN after the Presidential elections is resolved. It is shaping up to be a no holds barred approach to the coming legislative elections. In time I think we will see a debate between Xanana and Mari Alkatiri the Secretary General of FRETILIN or whoever the FRETILIN wants to put forward as itS Prime Ministerial candidate during the legislative election campaigning, it within such a forum that we can make our own views about the candidates an what more importantly what they can offer us in governance.

Timor's Leaders: Xanana

2007-04-20T11:43:00.000+09:30

If Timorese history of Independence was to begin in the early 1980's and end after Independence in 2002, Jose Alexandre “Kay Rala Xanana” Gusmao would be a living legend. Xanana unlike Nicolao Lobato, Jose Ramos Horta and Mari Alkatiri was not a founding member of the Independence movement. Nicolao Lobato having attained legendary status for his leadership role before and after the Indonesian invasion ensured that Xanana was not the only important figure in Timor Leste’s history amongst the Timorese people. However there is no denial of the significant contribution he made to the Timorese plight during the resistance.

Xanana inherited the leadership of a wounded resistance movement. In the years before his ascension to the leadership role the Timorese resistance sustained heavy losses especially amongst the leadership core due to the aggressive Indonesian Military operations.

Although FRETILIN continued to exude profound influences over the resistance movement through its historical ties and established organisational structure, Xanana was able to create a unified approach to the struggle gradually involving other groups and individuals into the resistance movement. This made Xanana different to his predecessors who were members of FRETILIN leading a FRETILIN struggle for Independence, under Xanana, independence became a national movement. It is important to note that FRETILIN continued to play an influential role.

Xanana also benefited from the growing International concerns surrounding Timor Leste in the 1980’s. His capture increased public interest in the Timorese Independence struggle and also allowed for a negotiated outcome which culminated in a referendum for Independence.

As a politician Xanana found it difficult to come into terms with a new political environment describing the Presidential role being more difficult than the role of a guerrilla leader. As President, Xanana was unable to wield the same political influence as a resistance leader, constrained by the Constitution and also not having the sustained support of a political organisation.

Xanana like many other Timorese leaders have not escaped the affects of the crisis. The crisis was handled poorly by both the Timorese Government and the President. Xanana has come under criticism for his inability to assume an impartial role in trying to resolve the crisis. The public addresses he made and his unpredictable positioning on issues in the Timorese context did more to inflame the crisis rather than providing a solution. His actions came across as a power struggle between him and FRETILIN that raised questions as to the true nature of the crisis.

Xanana decided not to run for the Presidency, but there are indications that he will pursue the Prime Ministership. The creation of a new political party CNRT clearly highlights his future political ambitions. Having won the Presidential elections by more than 80% in 2002, the questions on everyone’s mind is with Xanana’ leadership how much votes will CNRT get in the Legislative elections? Reputations will be tested.

Final Results

2007-04-19T10:43:00.000+09:30

The Final results are out:

Francisco Guterres Lu Olo - 112,666 (27.89%) Jose Ramos Horta - 88,102 (21.81%) - Contesting second round.

Fernando de Araujo - 77,459 (19.18%) Francisco Xavier do Amaral - 58,125 (14.30%)
Lucia Lobato - 35,789 (8.9%) Manuel Tilman - 16534 (4%) Avelinho Coelho - 8,338 (2.06%)
Joao Carrascalao - 6,928 (1.72%)

Total Votes Cast : 427,712 (81.79 %)
Invalid votes: 23,771 (5.56%) (More realistic number consistent with 2001 Legislative elections 5.40%)

Lasama and Alfredo

2007-04-18T18:19:00.000+09:30

Lasama wants election nullified. Horta has called of the hunt for Alfredo. What do you say about all this? Your comments would be very much appreciated.

Election Nullified

There are avenues which Fernando Lasama de Araujo or any other candidates can pursue to nullify the elections. The Timorese Court of Appeals is the competent authority in considering the various disputes that may arise from the 2007 Presidential election.

The continual call for the recount or nullification of the Presidential elections by Fernando Lasama highlights his political immaturity. Lasama should look at this election for the positive outcome having done better than what many pundits expected. The fact is that Ramos Horta during the first round did not have a significant impact on Lasama, Xavier and Lucia Lobato, each held their own in this Presidential elections. Such a result should provide confidence to their respective political parties, PD, ASDT and PSD having known that they will not be totally dictated either by CNRT or to some extent FRETILIN. The main interest for these smaller political parties is whether the Presidential elections reflect the voting sympathy during the Legislative elections.

What needs to be emphasised is that the Presidential election as a whole was a success, it was conducted in a climate of relative calm considering Timor Leste was in the midst of a crisis. Rightfully all those involved in the providing security needs to be congratulated in ensuring the safe conditions allowable for the free conduct of elections. It is also important to note that the voting and counting process was considerably well monitored by International and National observers including party representatives. The results of parallel counting by independent monitoring organisations was consistent with the current preliminary result with LuOlo leading followed by Ramos Horta and Lasama.

In my opinion the discrepancies that have been put to attention in the media have not been considerable enough to warrant nullification or a recount. However there are around 140 issues raised in regards to the vote which will need to be considered.

The conduct of the spokesperson for the CNE is also largely responsible for raising false expectations and contributing to Lasama’s positioning. Reports publicised during the count favoured Fernando Lasama and Ramos Horta at the initial stages of the count raising high expectations. By the end of the count when it became apparent that there was going to be a significant shift in favour of LuOlo the other candidates cried fowl.

Horta and Alfredo, Security issue or Presidential intentions?

Reports that Ramos Horta has called for dialogue with Alfredo is on one hand positive in trying to resolve a long standing issue, but also highlights his inconsistent approach at resolving the issue. Before the crisis in May 2006 Ramos Horta and Xanana were involved in dialogue with Alfredo but it did not prevent Alfredo from ambushing the FFDTL. At one point earlier in the year Horta called Alfredo a criminal then changing the tone and seeking negotiations again resolving nothing.

The fact is that Alfredo has been recommended by the UN investigative commission on the crisis to face criminal proceedings for his involvement in the events of May 2006. Another individual also recommended for prosecution is Rai Los who has yet to front court and yet was present at Ramos Horta’s campaign rallies. Horta needs to be consistent as to his approach to the investigation and prosecution of those involved in the crisis. In the handling of the issue Horta’s stance does not evoke neutrality and is constantly inconsistent which may yet haunt him in the future.

The need to resolve the Alfredo issue is an important one as you have armed men in the mountains of Timor who are a threat to the country’s security. It is questionable as to Ramos Horta’s intent because some people insist that actions made against Alfredo’s may have had influence on some voters as Ramos Horta and Xanana came out of favour with those supporting Alfredo. It is worthy to note that the Presidential election was also regionalised in nature and it is doubtful that Alfredo’s influence was substantial. Ramos Horta may be gambling on the perceived influence asserted by the Alfredo issue on the Presidential election. It is a gamble that further highlights his inability in taking a stance on an issue and illustrates his continuing reliance on others to influence his desired outcome rather than being the influence himself.

Responce to anonymous (edited year 2001 to 2002 ie: Presidential elections thanks for pointing this out....lapse of concentration)

2007-04-18T08:04:00.000+09:30

Comment: Dear Maubere,Upon reading your postings it is quite clear that you are very articulate in presenting your analysis although I contend that they lack a certain depth an at times are contradictory in themselves. There is definitely an effort on your part to portray a level of objectivity but there is also a visible albeit subtle pro Fretilin stance transpiring from your writtings. Your expressed opinion on the level of complexity and understanding of the Timorese electorate is, in my view, and over estimation in an attempt to convey your favorited view that Fretilin’s candidate has a winning chance in the ‘run-off’ despite the obvious general loss of popular support for the party and that it will not, in any case, have a bearing on the parliamentary election.Allow me to disagree with your view.You tried to substantiate your opinion by drawing what I believe to be wrong parallels between the former and current elections. As such, you state that:“What is interesting is not the obvious support for Xanana but the 63,146 votes received by Francisco Xavier. ASDT the political party led by Xavier only received 28495 votes in the 2001 Constitutional Assembly elections, this years presidential elections Xavier received only 45854 votes. These figure shows that Timorese voter hold the Presidential and the Legislative elections to be two different things. As an individual Xavier received more votes than within the Political Party framework of the Constitutional Assembly elections.”Here, your analysis is fundamentally flawed as it fails to recognise that Xavier’s 63,146 votes resulted from a combination of “true” ASDT votes and some “Fretilin votes” since Fretilin itself had no candidate of its own and its leadership openly favoured Xavier over Xanana. This was evidenced not only by the internal controversy and threats of possible disciplinary action against Cipriana Pereira (Fretilin’s MP who publicly supported Xanana’s campaign) but also by Mari Alkatiri’s public statement that he would forego the vote for a “nice day at the beach”. Though most Fretilin supporters chose not to follow Mari’s lead as evidenced by Xanana’s landslide win, some inevitably did by voting for Xavier.Subsequently, as a party, ASDT only got 28495 votes in the Constituent Assembly elections since the initial extra support for Xavier's presidential bid was circumstancial and had reverted back to Fretilin which was also contesting.Thus, Xavier’s 45,854 votes in the current presidential elections actually represent an increase from the 28,495 votes in the 2001 presidential elections rather than a decrease from 63,146 votes as you concluded. This is because this time around Fretilin has its own candidate and any increase in support for Xavier represents a real swing in the electorate rather than a “temporarily borrowed” vote from Fretilin. This is clearly the reason why as you pointed out "Xavier received more votes than within the Political Party framework of the Constitutional Assembly elections."A noteworthy distinction between the candidates in the two presidential elections is that unlike Xanana Gusmao in 2001, none of the the current presidential candidates (except for Ramos Horta to a certain extent) have a national appeal that rises above party politics thus inevitably forcing this election into a contest based on party support.One other argument of yours is that "Fretilin tends to go beyond expectations". This is another incorrect assumption on your part as all evidence points to the contrary. Infact the opposite is true. It is quite reasonable to argue that infact "Fretilin tends to fall short of expectations". During the 2001 elections the generalised feeling was that Fretilin was going to win with a much more significant percentage that the 57% achieved. Although here I must say that Mari's typical antics of 90% victories echoed by top party officials did contribute to a sense of a lesser victory, despite being a substantial victory in real terms. It also did much to embolden minority parties as they sensed that there was much room for expansion. This scenario repeated itself in the current presidential elections as Fretilin (through its candidate) saw its support drastically reduced after much talk of an outright victory in the first round. Again the 90% victory rantings gave way to a 29% percent victory (almost half from 2001) which ensured nothing but a run-off election. If we bring the percentages from the Suco Chief elections into the equation, this 29% "victory" highlights even further Fretilin's fall from grace. To conclude, I believe (as many do) that this presidential election can be safely taken (within the bounds of reason) as a preview of things to come in the coming parliamentary elections.I am eager to hear your informed opinion on this.

Responce:Anonymous ..

Thank you for your interesting insight on the Presidential elections, the views presented are valid. Where you ask to disagree with my views I ask you allow me to provide a different opinion as all views presented are relevant depending on how you see things.

I have made it clear in this website that I wanted to project a different view from the generalised view that has been popularised in the media and by certain individuals. It is challenging to provide a different perspective on Timor Leste without being labelled a Pro FRETILIN or a Pro Xanana, Horta and Co. We have to be realistic about Timor Leste and be prepared to criticise even our own heroes/idols, I agree some comments are subtle pro FRETILIN in nature, it is the dynamics of approaching Timor Leste from a different angle.

If you read the comments “Prelimenary results” carefully it is important to note that the analysis makes the assertion that the vote for Xavier is a different vote to ASDT and does not conclude that Xavier has lost any votes. It is important to also consider that the Presidential vote is different in nature to a Legislative vote.

It is clear that both the 2002 elections and the 2007 Presidential elections were made on a regionalised voting preference for the individual rather than on fundamental party lines. This is where I use Francisco Xavier as a way of differentiating a voter’s preference between Presidential and the Legislative elections.

In my opinion the majority of voters in the 2002 Presidential elections opted for the individual vote. The majority of FRETILIN voters certainly placed their support on Xanana. Xavier was seen as an “avo” (a grandfather figure, where Xanana was at that time at the height of his popularity) and did not appeal broadly to many voters apart those in the central highlands of Timor Leste where he continues to exert great influence. In the simplest terms if you take out the amount of this years results from the 2002 results you will have 17,000 voters, which may be what he gained from FRETILIN so it is fairly insignificant (in the Constitutional Assembly elections FRETILIN acquired 200,000 votes). Clearly both the 2002 votes and 2007 Xavier continually achieves better than ASDT the political party he leads.

Francisco Xavier’s results highlights what in my opinion the fact that the Timorese voter does not always vote on Party lines. The regionalise voting nature was evident this year see More allegations: this time vote rigging.

An important note on the differences between the Presidential and the legislative elections is the image of President Xanana. If the Luolo’s vote is seen as the FRETILIN vote, I would hate to think that the Horta vote will be the CNRT vote. If that is the case Xanana’s popularity will be seriously tested because if the Dili vote includes disappointed FRETILIN voters where will CNRT and Xanana get their vote from with Horta not taking much from the minor parties in the districts. I agree that Xanana in 2002 had broad national appeal, probably there will never be a result as significant as 2002. However it would have been interesting to see how Xanana would have gone in this year in the Presidential elections. Even with Xanana’s public support, the Catholic churchs’ subtle approval and Horta’s so called national appeal Horta failed to make a significant mark throughout the country. Xanana had 80% of the vote what if CNRT gains 20% of the vote, what will this say about Xanana? I don’t want to jump to conclusions hence why I believe there are fundamental differences between this vote and the Legislative vote.

Maybe I was the only one surprised by FRETILIN’s dominance of the Constitutional Assembly elections. FRETILIN came up against 14 other political parties. Maybe they were not as well organised and without the entrenched historical roots, but the difference between FRETILIN’s vote and the second closest political party is significant. As it is in this elections mathematically it would have been difficult to achieve a majority, FRETILIN achieved 57% of the vote that is staggering.

In the Suco elections the general feeling was that FRETILIN had lost its appeal, with many predicting FRETILIN’s demise, again FRETILIN did reasonably well to even after a long drawn protest organised by the Catholic church. Hence why it is my opinion that FRETILIN did above expectations, what was said by the FRETILIN leadership was mere political bluff.

The Legislative election is not a foregone conclusion and I think it is fair that FRETILIN concedes that it is in a vulnerable position. In my view it is not important who wins. Where many people are looking for a barometer of a possible demise of FRETILIN I want to know what will CNRT or a broad coalition between political parties with different agendas, fundamentally contradictory ideologies manage to remain stable. With the results of the elections should PD, ASDT or PD feel they will achieve more going it alone? If Horta’s vote is a CNRT vote will CNRT be comprised with no coalition having a clear majority to exert influence? What about the policies and programs? If Xanana is PM who will be the other Ministers, are they acceptable to the people? How will FRETILIN fare as the opposition? What if FRETILIN wins?

CNE Independent?

2007-04-17T08:04:00.000+09:30

The spokesperson for the CNE continues to bring the CNE into disrepute. A representative of what is supposedly an independent body Father Martinho Gusmao has been increasingly prejudicial in his conduct as spokesperson which has the potential of destabilise a fragile country. It was previously highlighted in this blog (More allegations: this time vote rigging) concerns of the biased conduct of Father Gusmao. It is not surprising that an Australian observer Damien Kingsbury who ironically previously has been critical of FRETILIN is calling for Gather Gusmao’s replacement.

A main concern for the elections is how Father Gusmao has publicly thrown his support for Fernando Lasama a PD candidate before the casting of the Presidential ballot and now Father Gusmao’s comments on Alkatiri and Lu OLo as reported on ABC’s PM radio program (see below) is disturbingly similar to the media release released by Jose Ramos Horta’s campaign team http://www.prlog.org/10013715-world-exclusive-ramos-horta-asks-who-has-the-right-to-rule-the-people-or-the-party.html. Such irresponsible and unethical comments cast doubts on the impartiality of the CNE for a senior official to continually come out publicly and criticise a candidate while showing support to another candidate.

The CNE needs to be impartial and for someone holding such an important position his conduct is not helpful in elections that will certainly bring confidence to the people in Democracy and which has the potential to solve some of the underlying issues that has recently plagued Timor Leste. The people have shown that they want to be the vehicle determining the future of Timor Leste, it is important the CNE as an electoral body acknowledges this and show impartiality to ensure that these elections are fair.

The main concern that must be raised is that such conduct can resurface any existing tensions. The dissemination of information favoured some candidates during the initial process of counting, especially Fernando Lasama who Father Gusmao had earlier publicly supported. Rather than providing consistent information and ensuring people that the counting procedure was still at its infancy the spokesperson was hinting of a surprise outcome, with this many people jumped into premature conclusions (including the media and the candidates). The CNE neglected the fact that parallel counting made by other organisations were suggesting that the two leading candidates Horta and LuOlo were in front. When the preliminary results were issued it caused apprehension as it caught many people by surprise especially with LuOlo sharp rise in latter stages of counting. The spokesperson came under fire from FRETILIN because of the subjectiveness of his comments that also raised questions on the validity of such votes with some candidates taking advantage of the spokesperson inability to analyse the count.

Father Gusmao opinion is important but should he wish to continue with his obvious discontent of FRETILIN he should not be an official of the CNE. Should he continue with his biased approach the integrity of the CNE during this election and the Legislative elections will come under scrutiny. It is in the interest of Timor Leste and the fair conduct of the elections that Father Martinho Gusmao is replaced.

CNE = National Electoral Commission.

ABC PM

PM - E Timor election official should be replaced: observer [This is the print version of story http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s1898699.htm]
PM - Monday, 16 April , 2007 18:21:40
Reporter: Sabra Lane
PETER CAVE: An Australian observer at last week's East Timor presidential election says the country's spokesman for the Election Commission should be replaced, because he's brought the Commission into disrepute.The spokesman, Martinho Gusmao, today blamed the East Timorese Technical Secretariat for Election Administration, which for obvious reasons is shortened to STAE, for problems with last weeks vote. And he's also offered some surprising views on the candidates in the election.Academic and long-time observer of East Timor, Damien Kingsbury, says Mr Gusmao should be replaced for those and other comments made in the lead-up to polling day.While Dr Kingsbury says there were a number of discrepancies with the vote, he's confident they won't alter the final result. It's a view shared by another larger international observer groups, which are due to complete their reports tomorrow on the first-stage of the election process.Sabra Lane reports.SABRA LANE: Father Martinho Gusmao is the Catholic Church's representative on East Timor's National Election Commission. He is the public face of the Commission.What he says carries a lot of weight in this predominantly Catholic nation.Today he told Radio Australia there were a number of problems with last week's vote. In the district of Bacau for example, which has 100,000 eligible voters, an election official wrongly entered the station's polling number into the computing system, recording 300,000 voters.MARTINHO GUSMAO: We see that the official in the polling centre, they put the code of polling centre into the voters result. And the code exactly is 0311301, so it becomes 311,000. And that's why it became a strange one in the system.SABRA LANE: But Father Gusmao says the mistake was corrected during counting.He's blamed the East Timorese Technical Secretariat for Election Administration, which is known as STAE for the problems.MARTINHO GUSMAO: It is the failure of STAE that they don't seriously provide voters education and official training in such a way that they can operate all the systems. So this is really lamented.SABRA LANE: The final results of last week's vote are now expected on Wednesday. Preliminary figures suggest Jose Ramos Horta and ruling Fretilin Party candidate Francisco Guterres, who's also known as "Lu-Olo", have scored the most votes and will probably face one another in a second-round vote in three weeks.Despite his position at the election commission, Martinho Gusmao doesn't hold back in giving his views about "Lu-Olo" and the country's previous prime minister Mari Alkatiri.MARTINHO GUSMAO: Alkatiri acts as if he is the candidate of President and every day if you find in journal or in every news, "Lu-Olo" never states whatever he think and whatever he figures out for future. And every day, Mari Alkatiri talk and talk on behalf of "Lu-Olo". So, we are wondering who will be the President - "Lu-Olo" or Mari Alkatiri?SABRA LANE: That doesn't impress academic Damien Kingsbury, who headed an Australian observation team at last week's presidential vote. DAMIEN KINGSBURY: Martinho Gusmao has made a number of mistakes in his own right throughout this campaign period.He's made a number of comments that he really ought not to have made about his personal preferences in front of journalists, and that's highly inappropriate for somebody who's meant to be an independent adjudicator.I would not regard his views as being those of an independent or an impartial mediator.SABRA LANE: Should he be replaced?DAMIEN KINGSBURY: Absolutely. He's the Catholic Church representative on the Commission and I think that he got there for reasons that have less to do with his technical ability and more to do with some internal political preferences.He simply has shown that he is not the right person for that job and his commentary on the electoral process before the election and since then has really brought I think, the Electoral Commission into disrepute and that's a dangerous thing.SABRA LANE: Dr Kingsbury believes last week's vote was pretty good, given the United Nations Development Program had a hands-off philosophy, allowing the East Timorese to run and control the election. He says lessons have been learnt and won't be repeated in the run-off poll on May the 8th.DAMIEN KINGSBURY: We've got to keep in mind that the UNDP is really keeping a very close eye on this whole process and they're not going to let it get too far out of hand. And I think on balance too we ought to keep in mind that whilst this was less than a perfect process, it was not nearly as bad an electoral process as you see in many other developing countries.So, it may not have matched the Western standard, but it certainly much better a process than you would find in a number of other developing countries, not least in our own immediate region.SABRA LANE: The Solidarity Observer Mission for East Timor is preparing a report on the vote which will be published tomorrow. The Mission's Coordinator Jill Sternberg also believes the problems can be fixed before the next vote.JILL STERNBERG: I believe they can be fixed but it will take effort and initiative on the part of the election officials to be sure that people are more fully briefed and prepared for the next election.PETER CAVE: The Solidarity Observer Mission's Jill Sternberg ending that report from Sabra Lane.

Loi Rubi

2007-04-14T22:41:00.000+09:30

Comment: It's lamentable that the pieces of analysis (commentary) in this blog are increasingly "bias" towards FRETILIN. I wonder why?Initially this blog does well by posting frank analysis briefly since its inception a couple of weeks ago on TL current affairs, but ironically the owner/or the bloggger is increasingly bias, which undermines the very objective nature of his/her own blog to have a frank analysis of contemporary issues of Timor-Leste.Might I recommend the blogger to state his/her political position before making commentary as such, if he/she continues to post the commentary. Despite the lack of positioning statement, the commens are insightful and refreshing for anyone to have a quick glimpse of the TL political landscape ahead.I am impressed with the depth of knowledge and the quality of the analysis. If you are a Timorese, my thumbs up for you! I would imagine you're one of the few Timorese elites educated abroad. Regards, Loi Rubi

Responce: Loi Rubi, I value your opinion on this blog. Certainly I agree that this blog may appear biased but what I wanted to achieve through this blog is to ensure that the commentary posted is not the generalised interpretations of the political occurrences in Timor Leste. To achieve this objective the political commentary made has to be realistic and also convey a multi dimensional view.
To be realistic in Timor Leste you have to be confronting towards issues and facts that may not always conform to the likes of others. In my view the reports made on international media are heavily biased towards anti FRETILIN sentiments. The major national media outlets such STL and Timor Post tend to act more as anti FRETILIN propaganda than publishing the news. Hence it is easy to find news and information that is prejudicial to FRETILIN, commenting views other than these creates a tendency after reading comments posted here as being biased.

As an example I hinted that there must be attention placed on the opposition’s conduct as it is important not to neglect FRETILIN’s shortcomings also. If you look at the oppositions current allegations of voting irregularities it includes allegations of FRETILIN making threats in the district of Ermera. Anyone understanding Timor’s current climate would understand the absurdness of such claims. FRETILIN has come under consistent attacks that have included the burning of its district office, the murder of one of its militants, the assaults made at its supporters during and after rallies. To highlight such discrepancies does not make an opinion biased what it does is it criticises the inconsistency of the opposition a right of any in Timor Leste citizen to do wether it is made towards the opposition or FRETILIN.

Another thing I made clear is that Ramos Horta does not have wide ranging support in Timor Leste. This is in fact the reality if you look at the preliminary results of the Presidential elections. The Dili vote I continue to insistand believe is a conscious vote where Horta was perceived as the candidate with the better qualifications for the Presidential role, this is what may have won him Dili. The rural vote was regionalised with Lasama coming on top in the Western districts, Xavier doing well in the central and LuOlo in the Eastern districts, mind you LuOlo’s vote was the most consistent across the country. Taking such a view of the prelimenary does not make it any more biased it just highlights the realities of the results.

I don’t believe my political inclination is important. Just to say that my family in Timorese politics extend over the whole political divide, predominantly PD, some committed FRETILIN sympathisers, harden UDT and with some waiting for CNRT.

More allegations: this time vote rigging

2007-04-13T23:22:00.000+09:30

There are now widespread allegations of vote rigging in Dili. This has come at no surprise since LuOlo has taken a lead in the vote count at the latter stages. What has been interesting that the results are consistent with the observers and a count undertaken by FRETILIN. What has been the issue is that the CNE issued preliminary results that was inconsistent with what everyone else were having that has resulted in raising the current issue. The performance of the spokesperson for the CNE has been biased and quite poor.

The fact is that in the latter stages of the count, the majority of votes came from the Eastern districts of Timor Leste, traditional FRETILIN strongholds which can dramatically change the results in favour of LuOlo.

For example if a count was undertaken in the Eastern Districts at the early stages it would definitely show LuOlo having a strong lead. If counts were then taken at the latter stages at Dili it would show a spectacular rise in the number of votes for RH, or if the votes were taken last from Bobonaro and Ermera it would show that Lasama’s vote would rise significantly.

What has been a surprise is the amount of votes FRETILIN did not get in Dili. FRETILIN has enjoyed very good support in DILI and the results having favoured Horta even after small attendance at his Dili rally I would expect FRETILIN to question the surprising result in Dili.

Although there were many irregularities from the districts if you look at the make up of the district vote LuOlo had consistent support throughout the country. The voting result is also consistent with previous years. Lets take Xavier do Amaral, he has done well in Aileu, that’s where his support base is, not even Horta or Luolo got close to him in the district, in 2001 Xavier obtained most of his votes from Aileu. Then there is Manuel Tilman who did well in Ainaro again consistent with previous results that showed a good support for KOTA the political party supporting him. It would be difficult for someone like Lasama to obtain much support in the Eastern Districts like Baucau or Viqueque. Lasama did well in the Western parts of the country because he is native to the western district.

Ramos Horta struggled in the districts and this is reflected in the little support he had when he was campaigning, in Liquica where he did manage to attain a large crowd is reflected in the results.

What is evident is that Ramos Horta does not have a wide support base many thought, you would think he had a more consistent vote in the districts but again his results is reflective of the amount of support as shown during the campaing. Voters in Dili however I supsect opted for a conscious vote choosing what they perceive to be a better qualified individual for the President. The District vote remains an emotional vote especially in the Eastern District where most people are still emotionally attached to FRETILIN because of the strong resistance presence in that district during Indonesian occupation.

Horta’s insistence for a recount is just a way of trying to get the support of the other candidates in the next round. Many people would have voted for other political parties because they are suspicious of Horta as he is seen as being opportunistic. Horta knows quite well a second round vote is unlikely, he is trying to win cheap political points, but it will be seen to what extent voters will redirect their votes. The upcoming second round vote is definately still in the balance.

What has been consistent are the various allegations that have surfaced against FRETILIN, most of these allegations are unfounded. It is quite concerning that the International media have been constantly fallen for cheap political propaganda that have resulted in their misrepresentation of Timor’s Political climate. What will be needed is greater scrutiny from all Political Parties in regards to vote counting. I think there are lessons learned from this first round of votes that will ensure greater monitoring regimes to tackle any issues that may arise.

Of great importance is the Legislative elections which have a different dynamics to this elections where votes will be certainly taken on Party lines and not so much on individual perceptions. It is still not unlikely that there can be another swing in the votes in Dili in favour of FRETILIN, with Xanana not enjoying the same amount of support from FRETILIN sympathisers as Horta may have. Voting party lines is different to a vote on an individual so greater care should be taken by observers both international and national to ensure the elections as a whole is conducted transparently.

It is now becoming increasingly more dangerous if the opposition doesnt have the vote their way we may again see violence in the streets of Dili. Demonstrations in Dili during the crisis have ended up in violence and FRETILIN member being subject to arson attacks. It seems everytime there is an allegation on FRETILIN it is the opposition that seem to be unable to provide evidence of such allegations and at many times have been the protagonist of undemocatic acts.

Prelimenary results

2007-04-10T08:04:00.003+09:30

The preliminary election results are out and the numbers are now being scrutinised by the Presidential candidates and Political Parties as a reference to what might be expected in next Legislative elections. There are some that are predicting the demise of FRETILIN, while FRETILIN itself shouldn’t be too disappointed with the results. No candidate got the ideal result most expected better results. Although Jose Ramos Horta came second he is in an advantageous position to win the Presidential race against Francisco Guterres “LuOlo” because it is expected that the other candidates will indicate their support for Horta. The number of invalid votes played a significant role in regards to the out come.

The realities of what will occur in the legislative elections my pan out different to what is reflected in this Presidential run.

The Timorese voters are more complex than what people perceive them to be. They are obviously conscious of the differences between a Presidential vote and a Legislative vote. The 2002 Presidential election we saw the majority of voters directing their votes to Xanana, given that there were only two candidates it was no surprise that Xanana obtained 82.69% of the vote. What is interesting is not the obvious support for Xanana but the 63,146 votes received by Francisco Xavier. ASDT the political party led by Xavier only received 28495 votes in the 2001 Constitutional Assembly elections, this years presidential elections Xavier received only 45854 votes. These figure shows that Timorese voter hold the Presidential and the Legislative elections to be two different things. As an individual Xavier received more votes than within the Political Party framework of the Constitutional Assembly elections.

With the current Presidential results LuOlo appears to have lost ground in Dili because I suspect the Dili vote was weighed on the voters perception of an individuals capacity for the Presidential elections and not on a political party preference. As it happened in the 2001 election, the FRETILIN leadership did not show any public support for Xanana but showed discrete support for Xavier and the people voted on their conscious rather than taking a political line. However when it comes to elections affecting the political framework, FRETILIN tends to do beyond expectations. During the local (Suco) elections of 2005 FRETILIN won the vote overwhelmingly after starting out slowly in the Western district it dominated the elections in Dili and in most districts. The elections were again conducted in the presence of International and independent observes who deemed it to be free and fair.

It is still too early to suggest the results will be reflected in the Legislative elections. Obviously Dili can now be described as the swinging electorate. While others were fairly consistent, i.e. strong support for Luolo in the Eastern Districts and reasonable support in the Western districts LuOlo. Ramos Horta’s support was predominantly in Dili and adjoining districts where the decision appears to based on individual preferences rather than taking a political party stance. Lasama did well in the Western districts having attained over 66,000 votes mostly from the Western districts who may have voted based on a regional context with Lasama being from Ainaro.

What will happen in the second round, is that it is likely that the other 6 candidate will indicate voters towards Ramos Horta, but that said it does not mean that Horta will have things his way. Many people were not happy with Ramos Horta’s political moves made during and after the crisis. Ramos Horta is probably not the consensual choice but the most convenient choice.

The number of invalid votes has cast a shadow to what was a very well participated vote. During the 2001 elections the number of invalid votes cast was 20,747 representing only 5.4% of 384,248 votes. Given that there were 21 choices (Political Parties and independents) you would expect the voter to make more mistakes. There is approximately 30% of votes invalid which is significantly higher than 2001. There will probably be more scrutiny for the next round of elections and the Legislative elections from all political parties and independent observes. Things overlooked like the inking of fingers the id presented, or how counting is monitored will ensure a more accountable result.

The CNE has come under some pressure the conduct of the spokesperson was favourable towards certain candidates, that has resulted in disputes in the results because the information delivered raised false expectations. Public support given by the spokesperson before and during the elections questions the integrity of the CNE as an impartial body.

The most positive result thus far is how the people have embraced Democracy.

Timor goes to second round

2007-04-10T08:04:00.002+09:30

The Presidential election proves that the Timorese people continue to embrace the concept of Democracy. Again they calmly lined up in long queues in order to cast their vote. The real victors of this Presidential election are the people of Timor leste and Democracy.

Before the elections there were two clear favourites, Ramos Horta and Francisco Guterres “LuOlo”. Ramos Horta was the sentimental favourite with the strongest credentials of all the candidates and a favourite of International media. With FRETILIN’s candidate LuOlo doing well during the campaign, LuOlo marked himself as the other favourite at the completion of the campaign period. In a surprise move Martinho Gusmao a priest and spokesperson of the “independent” CNE (National Electoral Commission) hinted that the Church was supportive of Fernando Lasama’s candidature. The elections highlighted the Church’s continuing intrusion in Timorese politics, allowing priest to freely express their views after mass and to some extent taking a political stance.

The current preliminary results show that Luolo is leading with 29% of the vote followed by Horta with 22% and Lasama who was very competitive with 18% of the votes. During the initial stages of the vote count it was frequently revealed that Luolo was astonishingly lagging behind Horta and Lasama and in threat of not securing enough votes for the second round. This was probably as a result of the Dili preliminary results which favoured Horta and Lasama. With the district vote count slow the nature of the results would soon change to where the results started to favour LuOLo.

There is a question about the conduct of the spokesperson for the CNE Father Martinho Gusmao who was clearly directing information that favoured Horta and Lasama. This raised issues when it was later conceded that LuOlo was heading the count. The change in lead was dramatised because of CNE’s failure to deliver impartial media briefings. This is highlighted by the fact that five candidates are questioning the results of which one of the basis is LuOlo’s rapid ascension to the lead after earlier in the day (Wednesday 11 April) he was coming third, although they failed to take note of the fact that independent observers participating in the count had released information that LuOlo was leading. The latter stages of the count would include the large voting constituencies of Viqueque, Baucau and Lautem which are traditionally FRETILIN strongholds that would significantly change the direction of the vote.

What is important about the Presidential elections is that there will be greater scrutiny of the counting process for the upcoming Legislative elections. The count undertaken in a way that is acceptable to all candidates. A couple of things come to mind, observers should conduct a head count to ensure that the number of participants matches that which actually voted. The conduct of the CNE is important, the spokesperson must ensure that the information that is relayed is impartial rather than being prejudicial to other candidates. Better scrutiny of the count process is needed with the number of irregularities quite high.

Overall the conduct of the voters was exceptional, the count and information relay is important as not to raise suspicions. There are lessons to be learned from this stage of the elections that can be applied in future upcoming elections.

The Presidential election has different dynamics to the Legislative elections. Many people would have voted on the context of who individually is best suited for the position, hence why Horta has received substantial number of votes in Dili. Although LuOlo has not won desired first round vote, FRETILIN would still gain the moral victory of the first round. Horta is in a prime position to win the Presidential election should he gain the votes of the minor parties but with greater scrutiny of the vote count procedure and the unmethodical nature of the Timorese voter there may yet be further surprises.

Conflicting Reports

2007-04-10T08:04:00.001+09:30

There has been conflicting reports coming in from Dili in regards to counting of results. It is widely reported in the media that Ramos Horta is leading the count, true that Ramos Horta has done well in Dili it is still unclear how well he is doing in the districts where information is trickling in slowly.

What this election is shaping out to be is one of many surprises.

In terms of Dili, although Horta is said to have 30% of the votes the other candidates are not far behind. With Fernando Lasama being reported in the press as coming second and LuOlo coming third having a preliminary count of between 20 to 30%.

Many people are taking the Dili results as one that will represent the district votes but this is probably unlikely. In Dili you would find a different voter who would base his decision on the candidate themselves measure factors like education, presence and perceived capacity, whereas in the districts it will be an emotional vote, to which LuOlo is expected to collect a better result. The results of the districts will determine the outcome of the ballot that is looking to go to a second round.

The Easter holidays where traditionally many Timorese travel to their home district, and fears that Dili may be the scene of any adverse reaction to the election results has meant that not everyone will vote in Dili may also have an effect on the number a candidate may have.
What is shaping though is that it is a three way contest between Horta, Lasama and LuOlo.
With the number of strong candidates vying for the Presidency it will certainly go to second round. I am predicting it will be a LuOlo/Horta run-off in the second round, with LuOlo taking more votes after the first round. The second round is still too close to call.

Q&A

2007-04-10T08:04:00.000+09:30

Anonymous said...
A friend of mine explained that the crisis in Timor and its ongoing effects were caused more by the disillusioned small ellite than by a general and popular revolt. The proof is that the crisis have bee largely isolated to the capital of Dili. Fretilin has a good chance of winning the election because these same ellite community is also largely aloof from the wider Timorese community. Although Fretilin is in danger of loosing the ellite vote, it's standing within the community in general has been largely unaffected. What are your comments on this?
April 9, 2007 4:56 PM

I think the crisis is much more complicated than what has been explained by your friend although in simple terms he has got it on the spot. However many individuals and groups were able to exploit the crisis well turning what was a dispute within the army to a dispute of governance. Dissatisfied sections of the community from poor or the elite backgrounds were drawn into the crisis.

I think any other political party would have found it difficult to consolidate their position as much as FRETILIN have. The margin of the two election results will see to how much FRETILIN has been affected by the crisis. I think FRETILIN is well placed at the moment in terms of what its role may be after the Legislative elections, should FRETILIN have a mandate to govern it has five years of experience and overcome a crisis (it's structure is still largely intact) and it would also pose as a formidable opposition should it lose (if that is the case it would be by a very small margin).

The results of the polls for the Presidential elections I think would reflect this sentiment. It is of my opinion that FRETILIN's candidate LuOlo will do well in the rural areas, in Dili is where we will have a greater reflection of FRETILIN losing the well established elite and middle class community. It was interesting that voting in Dili concluded much earlier than expected around 12-1:00 most polling booths in Dili was completed. I would say that many voters left Dili for the districts for safety concerns.

Horta under pressure

2007-04-09T15:02:00.000+09:30

Ramos Horta has been very careful in the past with words he has chosen when criticising Mari Alkatiri or FRETILIN during the crisis and the campaign period. His outlandish and unsubstantiated allegations are a mere sign of an individual in my opinion sensing his own decline and demise as a public figure in Timor Leste. With FRETILIN’s show of strength during the campaign we have seen a shift in public opinion and to an extent international opinion from an untouchable Presidential candidate to an individual playing second fiddle to LuOlo in terms of favouritism for the position. The Catholic Church has come publicly about supporting Fernando Lasama which was a kick in gut for a person who campaigned hard about his relationship with the Catholic Church. Even with Xanana’s and CNRT’s presence and support Ramos Horta failed to only attract around 1700 supporters in Dili soccer stadium in the last day of campaigning, filling the stands but facing an empty soccer field. It is clear that Ramos Horta's is caving in to the rigours of this Presidential race and the crisis itself. As I mentioned earlier in this blog there is now a clear relationship between Ramos Horta, Xanana and CNRT, obviously it makes sense to suggest that they hold something in common; FRETILIN is a powerful obstacle to their political ambitions. Ramos Horta gains his support from people who have personal issues against FRETILIN in that sense it would not be a surprise if his statements were to be detrimental towards FRETILIN as possible even if they were bordering on the preposterous. Anyone who followed the campaign period would hold the opinion that FRETILIN does not need to resort to such drastic measures as going door to door threatening or prosecuting people. The show of support for FRETILIN was strong in Dili as it was in all parts of the country.

FRETILIN extraordinarily seem to be a stronger organisation because of the crisis. I think FRETILIN has politically matured and is in the onset of a great political transition from a Revolutionary Front to a truly traditional Political organisation, well organised an in touch with the people. FRETILIN’s candidate LuOlo would be in a confident position leading to this election and the Legislative. Anyone who understands Timor would see that Ramos Horta’s figure within Timor has been grossly overestimated, it would be interesting to see how much support Xanana and CNRT really have.

I had mentioned earlier that CNRT will have an negative impact on the opposition parties (PSD, ASDT and PD) possibly taking some of their support base, now I ask how much impact the opposition party will have on CNRT putting it in a vulnerable position indeed.

Possibly the Timorese know something about this crisis that we don’t know.

Xanana: unrealistic promises

2007-04-08T13:15:00.000+09:30

On the 4 April it was disturbing to hear President Xanana's new comments that have done more to contribute to a climate of instability than to resolve any differences that may exist in Timor at the moment. His careless comments were reported in the Portuguese media http://diariodigital.sapo.pt/news.asp?section_id=10&id_news=270271. Two important points were made by Xanana, one was that Timor Lestes petroleum fund should be released and the other he idolises Suharto the former Indonesian President who instigated the invasion of Timor Leste resulting in 25 years of human rights abuses 9this speaks for itself, however Xanana's actions during the crisis Timor Leste became close to falling into a new dictatorial state (I will write why soon as his comments may be a justification for the creation of such a state).

The first comment in regards to releasing the petroleum fund is not only irresponsible but absurd since Timor Leste relies on this fund to be self sufficient. The petroleum fund is what will ensure a viable future for Timor Leste as an Independent state. It is essentially Timor Leste's "Futures fund", as such will provide a source of sustainable revenue for Timor Leste allowing Governments to develop budgets without being reliant on international aid thus ensuring Timor Leste is truly independent and not dependent.

I don’t know how much though Xanana had in making such an unrealistic proposition. On one hand it is politically cunning as it takes advantage of Timor Lestes vulnerability as a poor country to stake his political claims to win the hearts minds of the people. On the other hand it is irresponsible as his comment is detrimental to future Governments including his own should CNRT win an election. Self interest groups may rally people to force the Government to irrationally release the funds rather than continuing the controlled and transparent regime set in place that has been installed by the Mari led Government.

The impact of the fund has been significant, considering that Timor’s budget in 2002 was only US$77 million to what is over USD$300 million in 2006-2007 (budget developed during Mari Alkatiri’s tenure as Prime Minister). Given this substantial rise we could expect that Timor Leste's economic outlook will improve and this was reported by the ADB (see previous post A growing economy). Taking this into perspective the Timor Leste governmentability in the last four years work to ensure a functioning administration was impressive. In 2006 major steps were actually undertaken in Timor Leste, from free schooling and a free meal for primary school to pre secondary school student (taking a lot of financial burden from poor families) to finally the ability to be flexible in the budget and in 2006-2007 programming extensive infrastructure development that may have offered increased employment opportunities. Timor Leste in 2006 enjoyed what was a very effective health system, for the first time in Timor Leste’s history Doctors were posted in sub districts thanks to the cooperation fromCuban Doctors. New health clinics and schools were also constructed all over the country.

Given what I have said above with the Government priority has been tied up with limitied financial resources and developing the administrative capacity of the country, Timor Leste has actually on the surface progressed well in the last four years. The Indonesians were in Timor Leste and even as late as 1999 motor bikes and cars were luxury of the privileged few. Today it seems traffic in Dili made the capital during Indonesian occupation look like a sleepy town. Markets that were once filled with Indonesians vendors are now being run by Timorese improving economic conditions for Timorese. Rural communities farmed lands that were once full of Indonesian transmigrants can now travel freely to Dili to sell their produce. In Dili the sight of a market vendor holding a mobile phone is something I have never seen in Timors history. People I knew who only once walked or caught microlets now travel in their own private cars. Looking at popular sites like Hi5 (www.hi5.com) the Timorese youth have embraced technology that was not available to them before.

Believe it or not Timor Leste has changed may it be a subtle change. When the Portuguese were here for four hundred years if you travelled to the rural areas most people lived in traditional huts, during the Indonesian period many were still living in such conditions, today there is a sight of zinc roofs in areas that were once isolated is amazing.

So what does this all have to do with Xanana’s comments. Well it has a lot to do with. Timor Leste has only existed in four years not forty, changes are being made slowly but the changes made as highlighted are significantly important. Timor's budget has improved in years as the result of steady and managed growth and of course petroleum revenues. I think Timor Leste has passed through the four most difficult years of Governance where the priority of the need to develop a functioning administration has now been replaced with the need to develop the living conditions of the people. There is no need to irrationally release the Petroleum fund, when Timor Lestes budget amount is still improving year by year. Timor Leste has a 20 year development plan that has been successfully implemented thus far with key objectives being met each year. The Government has also balanced its budgets for fours years consecutive, these are right environments to establishing a successful sovereign country. Wouldnt FRETILIN or any other political party love to have the next four years of Government with a more flexible budget. Now its time for real change not empty and irrational promises.

Xanana's comments adds to the concerns many people have on his ability to run Timor Leste as Prime Minister, when people are just realising that as President his tenure was a forgettable one.

Below is the article I was talking about.

Timor: Xanana apela à libertação fundos petróleo do Mar TimorO presidente timorense apelou hoje à libertação dos fundos do petróleo do Mar de Timor, no valor de 1.000 milhões de dólares (770 milhões de euros), alegando que a população do seu país continua a viver na miséria.
Em declarações aos correspondentes da imprensa indonésia em Díli, citadas hoje pela imprensa australiana, Xanana Gusmão apelou também à unidade de todos os timorenses, para que o país possa «construir o futuro com sucesso».
«Temos 1.000 milhões de dólares (num banco) em Nova Iorque e temos pessoas a morrer em Timor-Leste», afirmou Xanana Gusmão, que, além de deixar a Presidência, se prepara para ingressar na vida político-partidária, como candidato a primeiro-ministro por uma nova formação política nas eleições legislativas previstas para Junho próximo.
A Lei do Fundo Petrolífero em Timor-Leste, destinado a gerir as receitas da exploração de petróleo no Mar de Timor (Timor Gap), foi aprovada unanimemente pelo Parlamento em 2005.
A Autoridade Bancária de Pagamentos (ABP) timorense abriu, depois, uma conta no Banco da Reserva Federal de Nova Iorque, onde está depositada a verba enunciada por Xanana Gusmão e que, face ao carácter obrigacionista, só poderá ser movimentada ao fim de cinco anos, isto é, em 2010.
O ainda presidente timorense lamentou que as esperanças subjacentes à independência, formalmente decretada em 2002, «nada significam» se não se puder fazer algo em prol do povo timorense para sair da miséria, uma vez que milhares de cidadãos vivem abaixo do limiar da pobreza, com menos de um dólar (0,70 euros) por dia.
«Prometemos novos empregos à população, mas, na realidade, o povo não vê nenhuma luz ao fundo do túnel. Temos dinheiro, mas, infelizmente, o dinheiro está guardado num banco em Nova Iorque, enquanto o povo está a sofrer, enquanto o povo vive na miséria», sublinhou o antigo guerrilheiro timorense.
Xanana Gusmão surpreendeu, por outro lado, os jornalistas indonésios, ao elogiar o antigo e autoritário presidente Suharto, da Indonésia, afirmando que é um «bom exemplo» para Timor-Leste, nomeadamente na forma como o país poderá caminhar no trilho do desenvolvimento.
«Para mim, Suharto, apesar de tudo o que lhe possamos acusar, é o ´pai` do desenvolvimento da Indonésia», afirmou o presidente cessante timorense.
Diário Digital/lusa

The 8 Candidates (cont.)

2007-04-06T21:31:00.000+09:30

Manuel Tilman

A lawyer who also served a deputy of Portugal's PS party in the 1980's. Manuel Tilman's candidature is supported by KOTA (Sons of the Mountain Warriors) a “monarchist” political party defending the rights of the liurai (local rulers). Manuel Tilman has called for closer ties with Indonesia, this coincides with KOTA which also had a history of being supportive of Indonesian annexation. KOTA one of the smaller political parties in Timor Leste, Manuel Tilman was recently critical of the creation of CNRT considering it a threat to smaller parties in Timor Leste. He is 60 years old.

Lucia Lobato

Fifth on the ballot papaer is Lucia Lobato and is related to Rogerio Lobato, however politically she serves PSD an opposing political party to FRETILIN. Lucia Lobato has been vocal in her criticism of FRETILIN during her campaign and has a platform for peace and national unity. The only female candidate in the election she holds her ground extremely well against the other candidates. In a televised debate it is said that she out scored the other 5 candidates participating (LuOlo had programmed earlier a trip to Atauro island to attend a rally). PSD is one of the main opposition parties along with PD and ASDT and she remains a dark horse with a gender being an x-factor. Lucia is 38 years old.

Jose Ramos Horta

The Nobel Peace laureate is one of the main contenders in this elections and on paper the strongest and what should be the obvious choice for President for an outside observer. A founder of FRETILIN and Prime Minister of a FRETILIN led government after the resignation of Mari Alkatiri. His candidature is supported by UNDERTIM, members of a FRETILIN reform group “Mudanca’ (I have been told that they are now completely marginalised by FRETILIN), and various independents. Ramos Horta has strong links within the International media network that has ensured that his campaign has been in the media spotlight.

However one significant worrying sign is the poor turnout recorded during his campaigns. In a campaign held in relative calm apart from minor clashes, the poor attendance throughout the country has surprised many including the Timorese themselves since even some minor parties have recorded higher attendances in some of their campaigns. Before the campaign many people would not have predicted this.

In Dili his last rally although significantly more than the first was again disappointing. Held at the Dili football stadium he managed to fill the seating of the grandstand but there were very little in the field itself please see Timor-Online; http://timor-online.blogspot.com/2007/04/fotografias-dos-comcios-de-ontem-em-dli_3231.html. With CNRT flags dominating the last Dili campaign (although Horta is supported by UNDERTIM) and with Xanana's presence the rally failed to attract an expected large crowd. It has now become clearer Horta's close relationship with outgoing President Xanana Gusmao and the newly created CNRT, on the surface it may seem a strong combination but the low turnout even with Xanana's obvious support a question looms over how much the crisis has affected the national image of the two prominent individuals.

How Horta goes in the election will be critical to his political future and that of Xanana Gusmao. The two have now thrown the same dice, and how Horta fares will of great interest to Xanana and CNRT.

Joao Carrascalao

Joao Carrascalao is one of the founders of UDT a historical political party in Timor Leste which advocated Independence only after a long period of decolonialisation. During Indonesian occupation Joao Carrascalao was active abroad also playing a key role in trying to find a solution during Indonesian occupation.

From one of the most influential families in Timor Leste Joao Carrascalao does not share the same political platform as his brother Mario Carrascalao who heads PSD a major opposition party. At 62 years old he is one of the older candidates but is nonetheless qualified.

UDT did not fare well in the Constituent Assembly elections an has only 2 representatives in the Timor Leste Parliament. Joao Carrascalao heads the Timorese Olympic Committee.

Fernando Lasama de Araujo

At 42, Fernando Lasama heads a political party that was the surprise of the Constituent Assembly which polled second to FRETILIN. PD (Partido Democratico) is supported by young Timorese students who studied in Indonesia. Fernando Lasama was also the Secretary General of RENETIL a student organisation that campaigned for the Independence of Timor Leste. Fernando was imprisoned in Indonesia for his Independence activism in 1991, he spent time in prison alongside Xanana Gusmao at Cipinang for four years.

It is yet to understand how much the crisis has affected PD since the political party was involved in organising the rallies that helped Xanana instigate the removal of Mari Alkatiri. The protests although succeeded in removing Mari it however failed to control its members who participated in some arson attacks in the city and an attack on TVTL communication installation and on the IDP’s both which was also recorded on International television. Fernando Lasama attracted a big crowd of 2000 supporters in Suai, pictures of his recent Dili rally can be seen also on Timor-Online http://timor-online.blogspot.com/2007/04/fotografias-dos-comcios-de-ontem-em-dli_7798.html. In a surprise remark made recently at a seminar, Father Martinho Gusmao indicated that the Catholic Church may be in favour of Fernando Lasama’s candidature which was a big blow for Ramos Horta. Should a second round of votes is required it should not be surprised that Fernando Lasama may be the other candidate vying for a spot. Fernando Lasama’s biography can be seen on http://www.pdemocratico.org/.