Absolute Poker Cheats

SPREADING: Concerns Raised About Ultimate Bet

2008-01-10T11:53:00.000+11:00

In a breaking development, concerns are being raised about a player at Ultimate Bet during the same time frame as the Absolute Poker scandal.

Here is a graph of the alleged cheater's play:

The point in the upper-right corner is the UB alleged cheater.

Some facts about the graph:
-There are 870 "normal" players from a variety of sites and limits
-Each of those other players have at least 2,500 hands logged on them
-The graph is in big blinds/100, not PokerTracker's big bets/100.

-The mean bb/100 win rate is 1.528 bb/100
-The standard deviation is 14.08 bb/100

-The alleged UB cheater is winning at around 10 standard deviations above the mean
-The confessed AP cheater was winning at around 15 standard deviations above the mean

I think that 10 standard deviations is something in the order of winning a 1-in-a-million lottery three or four times consecutively - although I'd prefer if a maths expert could be a little more clear.

Q&A - How To Check If You Were Cheated

2007-10-31T11:28:00.000+11:00

I get a number of questions via Meebo from visitors to this page.

Given that I'm just one human being, you need to give me a few minutes to respond to something you ask.

One question I received:

meeboguest693551: How do you get AP to check if you were one of those that got cheated?

Answer: You need to email Absolute Poker.

------------------------------------------

Also, on another topic, I am obviously not employed by Absolute Poker. So, please don't be like the muppet who called me at 5am yesterday morning (my time) and ask me why pictures don't load when you run the Absolute Poker client. I don't know, nor particularly care.

If you're currently playing on Absolute Poker - when there are serious questions about how involved management is in this cheating - you're clearly beyond my help.

PAYBACK - Absolute Poker Paying Back Affected Customers

2007-10-26T14:07:00.000+10:00

Absolute Poker has started paying back customers who had money cheated from them.

This is an important step back for Absolute Poker, and offers the hope that they may be intent on making this right again for the future.

As an optimist, I hope that Absolute Poker takes this opportunity to repent from their past errors, and learn from their mistakes.

SPREAD THE WORD - Help Protect Players From Being Cheated

2007-10-22T17:27:00.001+10:00

Now that we have proved that Absolute Poker players were cheated, it is important to spread the word and stop future players from having their money put at risk.

You can help by advertising this website to potential Absolute Poker players.

The easiest way to do this is to simply email friends with an Absolute Poker account and tell them in your own words how you feel.

In addition, you can help by paying for advertising on Google and other search engines, so that potential customers are aware of Absolute Poker's activities. If you have an account on such a service, feel free to use that.

Alternatively, if you do not have such an account yourself, I'm willing to accept donations and use them towards a Google AdWords fund.

Here's the deal:

1) You transfer money using PayPal to michael@michaeljosem.com

2) I guarantee to contribute every single cent received towards Google AdWords in accordance to any instructions donors might make (you may want to specify a particular geographic location or other mechanism)

3) As much as is practically possible, I will provide any contributors with evidence of #2

4) Donors of $50 or more optionally receive a free @absolutepokercheats.com email address. This is hosted using Google's Gmail for Your Domain service, and can be set to forward to another email address.

5) In the event of something major happening to render this advertising no longer applicable, I will contact donors about how to refund money

TECHY - An IT Expert Considers How The Cheating Happened

2007-10-22T14:18:00.000+10:00

In this cleanly written article an IT security expert considers the practicalities of how the cheating may have taken place.

POETRY - Absolute Poker Situation In Rhyme

2007-10-21T21:06:00.000+10:00

Courtesy of TwoPlusTwo forums poster, Slacker McFly:

There once was a site made by Scott Tom,
The name of it was absolute.com.

His Epsilon brothers came along for the ride,
They all made some millions and showed off with pride.

They had weddings in France and more than one stripper,
And would do so today if weren't for Potripper.

Potripper and friends, well they weren't really smart,
They played poker like morons and had a brain fart.

By folding those Kings and calling Ten high,
Potripper exposed the Absolute lie.

So dumping's the answer they all would decide,
Did they think that for sure from us they could hide?

Ah well, the Greycat is out of the bag,
It seems that their plan has hit a big snag.

Addie and Josem and Nat and lots more,
Found out about them and their plans for a score.

After covering up and telling more lies,
Absolute is in trouble, it's time for goodbyes.

And now we await the final word from the crooks,
About how they were fooled by geeks on their books.

It won't make much sense, whatever they say,
We all won't believe them, to do so is ghey.

Say goodbye to the guys that were Absolute,
The site is all rigged, the owners no goot!

COMMENTS - No Offensive Slurs Please

2007-10-21T19:51:00.000+10:00

Recently, some people have used the opportunity to make comments to make very serious and offensive slurs against others. As is to be expected, I will be deleting such comments.

If you want to make accusations of underhanded behaviour against people (ie, if you think another site isn't fair), please email me at michael@michaeljosem.com

I don't want this site to be used by bad poker players to complain about their bad beats. I believe that it is important that every claim is supported by credible evidence and high quality thinking.

CONFESSION - Absolute Poker Admit System Compromise

2007-10-19T13:09:00.000+10:00

This just in:

PocketFives just received a phone call from Absolute Poker confirming the suspicions of the online poker community over the past month. While we need to be vague in this post to respect their wishes, we can say that their systems were compromised, and that they are prepared to provide the details in a statement coming shortly...

MIRACULOUS - Wizzard Of Odds Casts His Spell

2007-10-19T10:51:00.000+10:00

Michael Shackleton, one of the world's leading online statistics experts, has analysed some hand histories from this developing scandal.

He has done some great analysis here.

In particular, he calculates the probability that someone would run this good in a multi-table tournament: 1 in in 1.88 × 10^44, or, in long form, 1 in 188,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. He put it at 14 standard deviations above the mean.

This is broadly consistent with my earlier calculations that put the cheaters' cash win rates at 15 standard deviations above the mean. The only thing I had off was the number of zeroes at the end of the number - I had guessed there would've been around 30, when there should be 44.

I had previously thought that the cheaters had about the same chance of running this good as winning six consecutive one-in-a-million lotteries. In reality, the cheaters actually have the same chance of running this good as winning seven consecutive one-in-a-million lotteries.

To summarise: either these are now two of literally the most incredibly miraculous occurences in the history of the universe, or they are cheating.

I have not found any other sample of anything with a result of fourteen or fifteen standard deviations above the mean. If anyone is aware of any, can they please email me?

UPDATE - The Story To Date

2007-10-18T23:47:00.000+10:00

Folks,

This situation is continuing to develop very quickly.

You can read the latest summary from twoplustwo forums online at http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=12554106&page=

EASY LISTENING: A Podcast On Absolute Poker Scandal

2007-10-18T22:47:00.000+10:00

The world's leading poker discussion podcast held a discussion on the Absolute Poker situation earlier today.

You can go here to view their podcast page or click here to listen to the podcast directly.

It makes for easy listening, and offers a clear explanation of the situation to date.

PRETTY - Watch The Absolute Poker Cheater Play

2007-10-16T10:39:00.000+10:00

Using the hand history records below, a great group of volunteers at www.twoplustwo.com have recreated a video of the cheaters playing.

This animation, using hand histories, shows the hole cards of all players. These hand histories were provided by Absolute Poker.

You can watch it at http://www.pokerxfactor.com/HA90370/2_20071014_190711/2
(a free registration is required)

EXPLOSIVE - Extensive Hand Histories Revealed From Inside Absolute Poker

2007-10-14T18:28:00.000+10:00

In a tribute to the monumental idiocy of Absolute Poker, word is spreading fast of a hand history file that they mistakenly sent to a player - a hand history file that reveals the hole cards of all players.

Excerpts from this hand history file are available online at http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=beats&Number=12493401&page=0&fpart=1

This revelation is important because it proves that a file is generated by Absolute Poker that records the hole cards of all players in one place. It is likely that this file is then being read in real-time by the cheaters.

Contacting Me

2007-10-11T23:13:00.000+10:00

I've had a few messages on Meebo asking me to be online more.

Since I work fulltime, that isn't always possible. Also, due to the time difference, that might not always be ideal timing anyway.

If you want to contact me, you can email me at michael@michaeljosem.com anytime.

A Graphical Representation of the Outliers

2007-10-08T20:35:00.000+10:00

The blue dots in the graph above represent 5,251 players. From a multi-million hand database, I have selected only those players with over 500 hands recorded.

It plots the VPIP (Percentage of Times the Player Voluntarily Put Money Into Pot) compared to the winrates.

As you'll see, out of 5,000 players, around a dozen players were able to win during 500 hands with a VPIP of over 60.

Out of 5,000 players, around 6 were able to win at just over 100 big bets per 100 hands. None were able to win anywhere close to the rate of the accused.

The red dot in the far top-right is the accused players.

Click on it to enlarge it.

How Is The Cheating Taking Place?

2007-09-27T12:45:00.000+10:00

Throughout this site, I've been very careful to provide evidence and carefully considered statements that can be supported logically.

However, a common question received via meebo is:
"I have been told that the data of other players hands is not even sent out
from the database, so there is no way to write a program to read this data that
simply doesn't exist on the user's end. So, is this site suggesting that the
users involved here are Absolute employees with access to the in-house database
that houses the information on players hands?"

At this stage, there does not appear to be any evidence to support how the fraud was occuring.

There are a few possibilities. They revolve around these possibilities:

Absolute Poker has some sort of administrative account that can be used to view hands in progress. This is sometimes referred to as a "super user account."

It is possible that someone who legitimately has access to this information is abusing the information;
It is possible that that someone has obtained access to this information illegitimately
Network routing software at Absolute Poker has been compromised, allowing someone to see all the traffic leaving AP's servers
There is some bug in the software which does send the hands belonging to all players, and this has been cracked
The RNG, which is used to randomly generate hands, is not random and this has been cracked

I don't feel that there is any credible evidence in favour of any particular proposition listed above. It is also possible that there are other causes that I haven't thought of.

One of the posters at the twoplustwo forums raised these very troubling questions:

- did the cheater use some kind of super-admin account or another
technic?
- are the five player-accounts used by the same person?
- is Mark Seif or another well-known person involved in this affair?
- why has been this case not detected by Absolute?
- is also Absolute management or only IT-personal involved?
- are the players in question Absolute shills?

We just don't know how the cheating was done - but we know that it did happen. A little like any other theft - we know money was stolen, but we don't know who stole it, we don't know what techniques were used to steal it, and until we solve the questions of "who" and "how" it simply won't be safe to play at Absolute Poker.

Absolute Poker Visits; Ignores Customers

2007-09-25T11:02:00.000+10:00

In a shocking display of the corporation's arrogance and disregard for its customers, Absolute Poker has now seen the allegations and evidence, and continues to snub many loyal customers.

A technical analysis by Absolutepokercheats.com investigators has found that a user on Absolute Poker's computer network in Costa Rica visited this site on 23 September. While the individual, at this stage, remains anonymous, it demonstrates that Absolute Poker is aware of the evidence against the thieves, yet continues to refuse to compensate victims.

It is clear that Absolute Poker is continuing to treat its customers with disdain while allowing cheaters to steal thousands of dollars.

Thepokerdb Statistics

2007-09-25T10:46:00.000+10:00

These are the results for the alleged cheaters. They are in addition to the results for the player Graycat which are already available online here.

What do they show? They show players who have played a number of tournaments, and managed to cash (ie, win a prize) even once - apart from when they miraculously win the biggest tournament on Absolute Poker.

Of course, by itself, it is not particularly damning - but it further highlights a very odd pattern of play.

These statistics are made available by thepokerdb, a part of Bluff magazine.

POTRIPPER

Date Buyin Tournament/Event Place Entrants Winnings
9/15/2007 $20 NL Hold'em 197 560 —
9/12/2007 $1,000 NL Hold'em 1 98 $30,000.00
7/5/2007 $5 NL Hold'em 234 234 —
7/5/2007 $50 NL Hold'em 140 148 —

DOUBLEDRAG

-No stats-

PAYUP*

Date Buyin Tournament/Event Place Entrants Winnings
9/7/2007 $50 NL Hold'em 40 235 —
8/25/2007 $500 NL Hold'em 248 306 —
8/22/2007 $1,000 NL Hold'em 1 119 $35, 700.00
8/18/2007 $500 NL Hold'em 248 365 —
8/14/2007 $100 NL Hold'em 20 85 —
8/14/2007 $50 NL Hold'em 63 136 —
8/13/2007 $3 NL Hold'em+Rebuys 628 713 —
8/9/2007 $10 NL Hold'em 54 121 —
6/20/2007 $1,000 NL Hold'em 28 94 —
6/4/2007 $10 NL Hold'em 51 134 —
6/1/2007 $3 NL Hold'em 6 19 —
5/30/2007 $3 NL Hold'em 3 16 —
5/22/2007 $3 NL Hold'em 2 13 $12.00
5/14/2007 $30 NL Hold'em+Rebuys 165 207 —
5/10/2007 $25 NL Hold'em 225 315 —
5/9/2007 $20 NL Hold'em 59 85 —
5/1/2007 $25 NL Hold'em 114 299 —
3/22/2007 $5 NL Hold'em 328 396 —
3/21/2007 $3 NL Hold'em 27 29 —
3/20/2007 $5 NL Hold'em 219 426 —
3/20/2007 $3 NL Hold'em 35 42 —

*There is some doubt about whether 'Payup' is part of this scandal of cheating at Absolute Poker.

Help Prove The Statistical Absurdity

2007-09-24T00:35:00.000+10:00

I want to create a graph showing how out of whack the playing statistics on the cheaters are.

To do this, i want to create a multi-million hand database, and graph a few key statistics. If you have some No-Limt Texas Hold'em hand histories - of any stake, any site, any volume - it would be helpful if you can send them to me to contribute to this project.

They can be old, and no data will be individually identifiable anyway, with all contributors remaining anonymous. Apart from the alleged cheaters, no data will be individually identifiable.

I believe that the resulting output will look something like this:

The image above is my hypothesis of how VPIP (percentage of hands where players Voluntarily Put money Into Pot) relates to winnings.

It will then be possible to produce similar stuff for other relevant stats (river aggression factor, and preflop raising percentage)

If you use PokerTracker, here are the steps clearly and easily described of how you can help:

Load up PokerTracker
Click on the Utilities menu
Click on "Export hand histories to a file"
Set any relevant filters (maybe exclude your last month's play - although i'm not interested in any individual's statistics, the paranoid might prefer this)
Use Windows or Winzip to compress the resultant text files
Go to http://www.yousendit.com/ to send the file to michael@michaeljosem.com

Now With Blog

2007-09-23T23:21:00.000+10:00

To help keep you informed of all the latest action as we continue to reveal Absolute Poker's cheating scandal, you can now add blog.absolutepokercheats.com to your favourite RSS/blog reader.

I've done some exciting new mathematical analysis that may show - in numerical terms - just how likely it is that Absolute Poker was allowing players to cheat.