Conservative Mensan

Blacksburg: Update 5:34 pm

2007-04-16T16:22:00.000-05:00

Virginia Tech has over 26,000 students. Please remember this fact while we are grilling the administration as to the appropriateness of their response. That's more people than many Virginia towns have. Also, an under-reported fact is that loudspeakers and sirens were blaring warnings in the morning to the effect that my wife could hear them in downtown Blacksburg, which is a half of a mile away from campus (this is first hand information). Let's not start in on blaming people until we get all of the facts. At this point, only one person has the primary blame, and he is dead of a self inflicted gunshot wound, according to preliminary police reports.

Unfortunately, 33 persons are confirmed dead. The mood in town is still somewhat confused and nervous. I know a number of people (including my wife and I) who are still trying to contact people we know are engineering students, and at least two that we know were in Norris Hall today.

Later this evening, we are having about 20-30 students over so they can get away from campus to try to collect their thoughts and prayers. I will be sure to pass on any information they may be able to provide. One student is living with us this semester, and her sister (who is doing fine) lives in A.J. on the third floor.

Tragedy in my Hometown

2007-04-16T12:40:00.000-05:00

I live in Blacksburg, and am a graduate of Virginia Tech (which is literally 10 minutes from my home). This is a small town, a true college town, where bread at local bakeries are created in maroon and orange on college gamedays.

This small town is reeling right now. At this point in time, reports are anywhere from 22-32 people dead in the shooting. The campus is locked down, but certain portions have been opened to allow students to leave.

I will update as the fog of details becomes clearer.

AARP has Invited Me to Join

2007-04-02T13:03:00.000-05:00

I just received (via the mail) another invitation to join AARP. I'm not sure which is funnier: the fact that they describe themselves as "nonpartisan" or the fact that I'll be turning 34 this summer.

Big Oil = Saavy Business

2007-03-19T13:42:00.000-05:00

Jerry Fuhrman highlights this little gem at From On High:

March 19, 2007 -- HANOVER, N.H. - Global warming, blamed for melting polar bears' icy Arctic habitat, could be a boon to the shipping and oil industries in the far north, according to a new report.

The dramatic decrease in sea ice above the Arctic Circle means that formerly impenetrable shipping routes are now open or soon could be for much of the year, the U.S. Arctic Research Commission wrote in a report released last week at an Arctic-scientist summit in Hanover.

"[This will] significantly shorten global marine transportation routes," says the report, prepared for President Bush and Congress.

Beyond shipping, less sea ice means easier access for offshore oil exploration and drilling in the Arctic, which is thought to contain about 25 percent of the world's remaining oil and gas reserves, the report said.

But with increased prospecting for oil and gas, the report noted, the risk of spills also rises, spurring the need for new clean-up technologies. (Reuters, 2007).

So to summarize, the only beneficiaries (according to the media) of the results of global warming are oil companies.

And about the polar bears:
NCPA
USGS
US Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works
CBC
Parliment of New South Wales
Telegraph

Reference:

Reuters. (2007, March 19). Global Warming Oil Boon. Retrieved March 19,2007, from http://www.nypost.com/seven/03192007/news/nationalnews/global_warming_oil_boon_nationalnews_.htm.

Say what?

2007-03-18T07:03:00.000-05:00

Jay Lawrimore of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center stated that this past winter was the warmest on record. See if you can spot the problem in this paragraph:

Lawrimore did not give an absolute temperature for the three-month period, and
said the deviation from the mean was what was important. He did not provide the
20th century mean temperature.

Reference:
Reuters. (2007, March 18). Winter has been world's warmest on record. CNN. Retrieved March 18, 2007, from http://www.cnn.com/2007/WEATHER/03/15/warmest.winter.reut/index.html.

Would Jeb be the Perfect VP Candidate for the GOP?

2007-03-17T15:54:00.000-05:00

(Note: this blog will not be "endorsing" any candidates until summer of 2008; this is provided as intellectual discussion only for the present)

Your first reaction is probably something like "U.S. voters won't elect another Bush" or "Americans will reject a political dynasty". But this blog wouldn't be the first to suggest that as the VP on the GOP ticket, Bush could be a net benefit.

Although it is nauseatingly early to predict the 2008 elections, most polls have two moderates (Guiliani and McCain) as current front runners and a reformed moderate (Romney) closing ground. The largest concern for a moderate GOP candidate (or a moderate Democrat candidate) in the general election would be retaining the base while appealing to the middle. This is not new and have been discussed elsewhere in detail.

Guiliani is claiming outright to be a moderate, and his strategy appears to be to appeal to the middle percentage of the country that may consider voting any candidate, regardless of party. According to Gallup Poll, "[i]t is clear that Rudy Giuliani in fact does receive a lower percentage of the vote from highly religious Republicans than he does among those who attend church less frequently" (Newport, 2007). He is hoping that the far right will not stay home and vote for his stance on the war on terror and economic positions. McCain has been campaigning in a similar manner, although he has been making more of an effort to reach out to the social conservatives. Both he and Guiliani have had limited success reaching this important GOP segment, although this could be because the election is a long time from now and this group will not consider backing a moderate unless the choice is between a moderate and a liberal. Romney has been actively positioning himself has the social conservative among the front runners, although he is routinely addressing media stories about his former positions. (I don't remember as much media interest when Democrat candidates were once pro-life but are running pro-choice, but that's an issue for another day...)

Bottom line: a strong conservative VP candidate will likely assuage many concerns from the far right - at least enough to get them to vote for the GOP ticket. Strong and early hints of a conservative VP selection may even allow the candidates the ability to campaign further toward the middle at earlier stages of the campaign cycle. But now the question present is whether Jeb Bush could fill that role.

Jeb has received a lot of press recently painting him as some type of potential conservative savior of the GOP, from Eleanor Clift's claim in Newsweek that he is the religious right's dream candidate, to the Washington Post's exultation of his recent January speech at the Conservative Summit:

At a time when the conservative movement is looking bereft, humbled by midterm-election defeats and hungering for a presidential candidate to rally around, Jeb Bush delivered yesterday in Washington a resounding endorsement of conservative principles, bringing his audience repeatedly to its feet (Goldfarb, 2007).

Just last night, MSNBC's Tucker Carlson had a panel discussing Jeb's political future, and the panel was taking great pains to separate Jeb from the current President. It's clear that there is a growing theme in the media that is attempting to remind the American public that Jeb and W. are two different people. The Washington Post even have an article in the Outlook section entitled What Would Jeb Do? Granted, the article is more of a long criticism of the current President, but still is an attempt to separate Jeb from any negative opinion of the current administration. This is what you would expect to occur if the GOP wanted to minimize the negatives associated with Jeb's last name.

On the other side of the coin, let's remember the fastest growing minority group: the Hispanics. A few months ago, John Zogby wrote that "[w]ith a highly competitive election in 2008 and a heavy voter registration drive, we could be looking at an electorate that includes a Hispanic component amounting to 10% of 130 million voters in 2008" (2006). He also noted that within the Hispanic community, a growing trend is occurring: almost one in four Hispanics now consider themselves evangelical. Jeb Bush can appeal to both of these elements whereas the leading presidential candidates may have some difficulties.

One final point: if Hillary Clinton secures the nomination for the Democrats, then the complaint about the "Bush dynasty" will largely go away for two reason. First, the Democrats will not use that charge against the GOP during the campaign because they won't want to remind the voters that the Clintons could fall in the same category. Second, the media will likely only give the issue lip service for the same reason. If the media is biased left (again, a topic for another day...) then they won't bring up an issue that is more likely to hurt the Democratic Presidential candidate than the Republican VP candidate.

References:

Goldfarb, Z. (2007, January 28). Jeb Bush Rallies Conservatives at Summit. The Washington Post. Retrieved March 17, 2007, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/27/AR2007012701171.html
Newport, F. (2007, March 15). Highly Religious Republicans Less Likely to Support Giuliani. Gallup Poll. Retrieved March 17, 2007, from http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=26884
Zogby, J. (2006, November 29). The Battle for the Latino Vote. The Huffington Post. Retrieved March 17, 2007, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-zogby/the-battle-for-the-latino_b_35164.html.

The UN is Doing What it Does Best

2007-03-16T21:05:00.000-05:00

In order to solve the ongoing difficulties that are occuring in Iraq, the United Nations is contributing to the solution by . . . talking. Although Saddam was toppled three and a half years ago, the UN is just now getting around to formalizing an approach to helping out. According to the UN website:

Nearly 100 delegations from Member States, humanitarian agencies and regional organizations gathered at United Nations Headquarters in New York for a long-term initiative for Iraq that aims to consolidate peace and pursue political, economic and social development over the next five years in the violence-torn country (United Nations, 2007).

The real interesting portion of the article is, after discussing all of the important reasons for the UN to step up and assist, they sneak this line in: "[t]oday’s session was technically a preparatory meeting prior to the formal launch". In other words, they're getting ready to talk about helping. I'm normally not one of those conservatives who has a knee-jerk reaction to bash the UN, but this is a lot like Dafur: long on talk and short on anything even close to productivity.

Reference:

United Nations. (2007, March 16). UN hosts wide-ranging international meeting on long-term development for Iraq. Retrieved March 16, 2007, from http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=21895&Cr=iraq&Cr1=.

You've Come a Long Way, Baby

2007-03-16T20:58:00.000-05:00

Today marks the slowest day in New York Stock Exchange history. In 1830, only 31 shares were traded (Today In History).

Reference:

Today In History. (2007). Historical Moments for March 16. Retrieved March 16, 2007, from http://www.todayinhistory.com/s15-03-16-event-results.html.

I'm Back

2007-03-16T20:55:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the unannounced break. My wife just successfully finished a reconstructive surgery as part of her post-breast cancer treatment.

Now, where was I?

The Global Warming Debate just became Less Serious

2007-02-25T22:38:00.000-05:00

I'm not interested in making fun of the fact that Al Gore's movie just won the Best Documentary Oscar for "An Inconvenient Truth" (Oscar, 2007). Instead, I want to highlight the damage that this does to a debate that should be very serious.

If there is any shred of truth to the idea that man-made global warming may threaten coastal cities in a devastating manner, then the discussion should be a serious, measured scientific analysis that weighs the pros and cons, supporting evidence against contrarian evidence. It has been well documented how this topic has declined into superficial, emotional shouting, but this award cements this topic as a "pop culture ditty" that will end up in the pages of People Magazine. Science is now officially a popularity contest.

Reference:

Oscars. (2007). 79th Annual Academy Awards - Winners. Retrieved February 25, 2007, from http://www.oscar.com/oscarnight/winners/.

Last Year: Best Active Force Recruitment in almost a Decade

2007-02-25T19:01:00.000-05:00

An article in Friday's Pentagram stated that despite many commentaries and op-eds to the contrary, active force recruitment is doing well. Gen. Peter J Schoomaker, Army chief of staff, is quoted:

Last year was the best recruiting year in nine years for the Army's active force and 13 years for the reserve force (Wood, 2007, p. 25).

Gen. Schoomaker made this comment while he and Gen. James T. Conway, commandant of the Marine Corps, were answering questions for the Senate Armed Services Committee. In their opinion, the gradual pacing of the troop strength increase (65,000 Soldiers and 27,000 Marines by 2012) was adequate to meet military requirements. They also indicated that no additional incentives would be needed to meet sustained recruitment goals.

Both Generals indicated that the units operating in Afghanistan and Iraq are fully trained and equipped, but expressed concern about the training of non-deployed forces. The increase in troop strength will allow for additional training time between deployment rotations.

Reference:

Wood, S. (2007, February 23). Force increase necessary for war on terror commitment. Pentagram 54(8).

Quiet, Please

2007-02-25T11:10:00.000-05:00

The town of Clifton, New Jersey City Council is considering imposing a fine for dogs that bark too much:

Later this month, the council is expected to introduce an ordinance setting a limit on how long dogs can bark. Noisy canines will be defined as those that bark for more than 30 minutes on two consecutive days (Associated Press, 2007).

There has been some precedent in limiting communication through daily quota. Here is an excerpt from the Standing Rules of the Senate:

no Senator shall speak more than twice upon any one question in debate on the
same legislative day without leave of the Senate (Senate, 2007).

My guess is that the dogs were working on a non-binding resolution.

Reference:

Associated Press. (2007). N.J. town to set time limit on barking. Roanoke Times. Retrieved February 25, 2007, from http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/D/DOG_BARKING_LAW?SITE=VAROA&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT.
U.S. Senate. (2007). Standing Rules of the Senate. Retrieved February 25, 2007, from http://rules.senate.gov/senaterules/.

Young Survival Coalition

2007-02-24T11:31:00.000-05:00

This weekend is the Annual Conference for Young Women Affected by Breast Cancer, which is presented by the Young Survival Coalition. There are approximately a quarter million women in the United States that have been affected by this disease that are under the age of 40 (Young Survival Coalition, 2007).

My wife, who is 31 years old and was diagnosed last year with BC, is currently attending and hopefully having a blast. If you are interested, the story of her/our travels through this fight have been well chronicled at http://katwerner.blogspot.com/.

Reference:

Young Survival Coalition. (2007). Young Women and Breast Cancer. Retrieved February 24, 2007, from http://www.youngsurvival.org/young-women-and-bc/.

New Gaming Technology is a Hit

2007-02-24T11:23:00.000-05:00

The Nintendo Wii took a risk by leaving the traditional video game console format in order to develop the handheld, motion sensing device. This risk is paying off; Merill Lynch analysts "now predict that a third of all Japanese households and 30 per cent of all US households will have purchased a Wii by 2011" (Seff, 2007). One out of three is a lot of market penetration.

For more information on the Wii, go here: http://us.wii.com/.

Reference:

Seff, M. (2007, February 23). Analysts Predict Wii To Reach 30% Saturation. Internet Gaming Network. Retrieved February 24, 2007, from http://wii.ign.com/articles/767/767190p1.html.

How to Deal with Space Madness

2007-02-24T11:08:00.000-05:00

NASA has a detailed plan on how astronauts should deal with a fellow crewmate who is suicidal or flips out. Those people who say you can fix anything with duct tape may have a point:

the astronaut’s crewmates should bind his wrists and ankles with duct tape, tie him down with a bungee cord and inject him with tranquilizers if necessary (Schneider, 2007).

Reference:

Schneider, M. (2007, February 23). Star crazy: Plans deal with breakdowns in space. MSNBC. Retrieved, February 24, 2007, from http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17300028/?GT1=9033.

Telephone Tax Refund

2007-02-24T01:30:00.000-05:00

If you had long distance service between March 2003 and June 2006, you may be eligible for a federal tax refund. Several federal court decisions held that the federal excise tax no longer applies to long distance service, so a one time refund will be provided this year. According to IRS Commissioner Mark W. Everson, "[m]any taxpayers are overlooking this special refund and the chance to get a bigger refund” (IRS, 2007). In fact, the IRS website states that early filing statistics show that approximately 30% of filers are no taking advantage of this opportunity.

You can go through all of your old phone bills and calculate the exact tax that you can have refunded - OR - you can take the standard deduction, which is between $30-$60 (based on personal exemptions). I personally used TurboTax, which asks you directly about this refund.

Reference:

IRS. (2007, February 23). 10 Million Taxpayers Miss Out on Telephone Tax Refunds; IRS Urges People to Check before Filing. Retrieved February 24, 2007, from http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=168058,00.html.

552 Years of Printing

2007-02-23T17:49:00.000-05:00

Today is the 552nd annivesary of the date that Johannes Gutenberg began his first printing run, thus publishing the first book (the Bible) using his printing press (Wikipedia, 2007). Regardless of your personal religious views, you have to admit this was a monumental event in human history.

Reference:

Wikipedia. (2007). Johannes Gutenburg. Retrieved February 23, 2007, from http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johannes_Gutenberg.

A Step Closer to Artificial Intelligence

2007-02-23T16:19:00.000-05:00

Researchers at MIT have created a new type of computer model that more closely mimics the biological functioning of a brain. Prior to this model, computer systems that are designed for A.I. have typically created an object archtype and when a new object is encountered, the system would try to match it to an existing object. This presents problems when similiar objects are encountered, or if the same object is viewed from different perspectives. "What makes the Poggio lab's model so innovative and powerful is that, computationally speaking, it mimics the brain's own hierarchy" (Delude, 2007). Obviously, the future application of biologically architected computing would be immense.

John Conners would be proud.

Reference:

Delude, C. (2007, Feburary 23). Computer model mimics neural processes in object recognition. Massachusetts Institute of Technology New Room. Retrieved February 23, 2007. from http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2007/surveillance.html.

Global Warming: Looking for a Compromise

2007-02-16T22:00:00.000-05:00

The debate over global warming has become nauseating. On the one hand, some on the political right call man-made global warming believers "alarmists" and "religious cultists", while many on the left compare the act of questioning this theory to denying the Holocaust.

It would be infinitely more constructive if we all spent less time insulting people without our particular views and more time trying to find common ground. For starters, the goal of many on the left is to reduce the impact on the earth by either reducing the usage of energy, or changing the method of energy production. It is not, to my understanding, a goal of simply finding new ways that the government can regulate our lives. For many on the right, there is a strong belief that government regulation is a problematic solution to most issues, which cuts to the core of why there is a lot of resistance. Conservatives aren't fighting for the excuse to pollute the earth, they just don't want government regulation that could cause extensive economic damage.

We should all be looking for market solutions to this problem, whether or not we have the government involved. To be more precise, if a new technology is on the market which reduces our impact on the environment AND it is economically beneficial - both sides should embrace it. A lot of discussion has focused on ethenol, solar and wind power, but I rarely hear about geothermal energy. I think this is a home heating / cooling technology that already can meet the concerns of capitalists and environmentalists alike.

To grab your attention, here is a brief section of of a report released on January 22, 2007, by an MIT-led interdisciplinary panel:

Geothermal energy from EGS represents a large, indigenous resource that can provide base-load electric power and heat at a level that can have a major impact on the United States, while incurring minimal environmental impacts. With a reasonable investment in R&D, EGS could provide 100 GWe or more of cost-competitive generating capacity in the next 50 years. Further, EGS provides a secure source of power for the long term that would help protect America against economic instabilities resulting from fuel price fluctuations or supply disruptions (M.I.T., 2007, p. 1-3).

Here is a comparison of some of the aforementioned environmental aspects:

(World Energy Council, 2007)

In addition to large scale energy production, geothermal systems can be installed in residential homes. These systems can reduce the heating/cooling portion of an energy bill for a home by 75%. In addition, at certain times of the year, the geothermal system will heat water, which reduces the energy required by water headers. The economic issue is that the upfront costs are prohibitive for existing homes to "retrofit". However, the cost for installing these systems in a new home construction will be offset by the ongoing reduction of the energy bill. It is estimated that after seven or eight years, the homeowner will begin seeing the economic gain.

Wait - seven years? That's a long time! This is the main reason this hasn't taken off in the United States. While many states (and the federal government) are giving tax breaks for energy efficient windows and solar panels, not many have even given a thought to this technology.

I encourage a brief perusal of the Department of Energy's overview of this technology: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/geothermal/overview.html.

References:

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. (2007). The Future of Geothermal Energy – Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st Century. Retrieved February 22, 2007, from

http://geothermal.id.doe.gov/publications/future_of_geothermal_energy.pdf

World Energy Council. (2007). Geothermal Energy. Retrieved February 22, 2007, from http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/reports/ser/geo/geo.asp.