the elegies

Warming spike predicted

2008-10-09T09:28:00.002-04:00

From realitysandwich.com:

A new study from the Global Carbon Project predicts the average global temperature could rise 11 degrees by 2100. Cataclysmic scenarios would unfold if this were to occur. Massive flooding of populated areas due to rising sea levels and larger, more devastating storms would wreak havoc. Scientists are viewing the results of this study as "scary" and believe we may be "locked into more warming than we thought."

Climate change to help diseases spread

2008-10-08T11:56:00.002-04:00

From sciam.com:

Bird flu, cholera, Ebola, plague and tuberculosis are just a few of the diseases likely to spread and get worse as a result of climate change, according to a report released yesterday by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS). To prevent such ailments from becoming as destructive as the "black death" (which wiped out a third of Europe's population in the 14th century) or the flu pandemic of 1918 (which killed an estimated 20 million to 40 million people worldwide, including between 500,000 and 675,000 people in the U.S.), WCS suggests monitoring wildlife to detect signs of these pathogens before a major outbreak.

"We will see a shift in the geographic distribution of diseases, with certain areas having reduced prevalence and other areas increasing," says veterinarian William Karesh, WCS's vice president of global health programs. "We are calling for increased attention and action in developing global monitoring networks to look at a wide variety of infectious diseases in a wide variety of wildlife since they are such sensitive indicators of the health of the systems in which they live."

1 in 4 land mammal species at extinction risk

2008-10-06T14:45:00.002-04:00

Nearly a quarter of the world's land mammal species are at risk of extinction, and many others may vanish before they are even known to science, according to a major annual survey of global wildlife.

At least 1,141 of the 5,487 known species of mammal are threatened, with 188 listed in the highest risk "critically endangered" category. One in three marine mammals are also threatened, according to the five year review.

The "red list" assessment, conducted by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), involved more than 1,700 experts in 130 countries, and confirms the devastating impact of forest clearing, hunting, fisheries, pollution and climate change on the populations and ranges of the world's most studied class of animals.

Amazon logging accelerates

2008-09-30T08:47:00.002-04:00

From the Associate Press:

The Amazon rain forest is being deforested more than twice as rapidly as last year, Brazilian officials said Monday, acknowledging a sharp reversal after three years of declines in the deforestation rate. Environment Minister Carlos Minc said coming elections were partly to blame, with mayors in the region turning a blind eye to illegal logging in hopes of gaining votes. Environmentalists blame the global spike in food prices for encouraging soy farmers and cattle ranchers to clear land for crops and grazing. Deforestation increased 228 percent in August compared with the same month a year ago, according to the National Institute for Space Research, which uses satellite images to track logging.

Livestock extinction

2008-09-26T14:45:00.002-04:00

From Project Censored's Top Censored Stories For 2009:

Indigenous Herders and Small Farmers Fight Livestock Extinction

The industrial model of livestock production is causing the worldwide destruction of animal diversity. At least one indigenous livestock breed becomes extinct each month as a result of overreliance on select breeds imported from the United States and Europe, according to the study, “The State of the World’s Animal Genetic Resources,” conducted by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Since research for the report began in 1999, 2,000 local breeds have been identified as at risk.

The industrial livestock breeding and production system that is being imposed on the world requires high levels of investment in technology and receives subsidies and other resources that have distorted the market.

Consequences of the livestock industry’s globalization include the threat to sustainable development and global food security, destruction of the livelihoods of over one billion people worldwide, smallholder bankruptcies and suicides, and the extinction of some of the world’s hardiest breeds of animals.

Continues here.

Animal logic

2008-09-25T16:40:00.001-04:00

Methane time bomb: the evidence is in

2008-09-24T09:59:00.002-04:00

From independent.co.uk:

The first evidence that millions of tons of a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide is being released into the atmosphere from beneath the Arctic seabed has been discovered by scientists.

The Independent has been passed details of preliminary findings suggesting that massive deposits of sub-sea methane are bubbling to the surface as the Arctic region becomes warmer and its ice retreats.

Underground stores of methane are important because scientists believe their sudden release has in the past been responsible for rapid increases in global temperatures, dramatic changes to the climate, and even the mass extinction of species. Scientists aboard a research ship that has sailed the entire length of Russia's northern coast have discovered intense concentrations of methane – sometimes at up to 100 times background levels – over several areas covering thousands of square miles of the Siberian continental shelf.

In the past few days, the researchers have seen areas of sea foaming with gas bubbling up through "methane chimneys" rising from the sea floor. They believe that the sub-sea layer of permafrost, which has acted like a "lid" to prevent the gas from escaping, has melted away to allow methane to rise from underground deposits formed before the last ice age.

They have warned that this is likely to be linked with the rapid warming that the region has experienced in recent years.

Methane is about 20 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide and many scientists fear that its release could accelerate global warming in a giant positive feedback where more atmospheric methane causes higher temperatures, leading to further permafrost melting and the release of yet more methane.

The amount of methane stored beneath the Arctic is calculated to be greater than the total amount of carbon locked up in global coal reserves so there is intense interest in the stability of these deposits as the region warms at a faster rate than other places on earth.

Common birds in decline

2008-09-23T08:35:00.002-04:00

Excerpted from planetark.com:

Many of the world's most common birds suffered steep population drops over recent decades, a sign of a deteriorating global environment and a biodiversity crisis, BirdLife International said on Monday.

Threats to bird populations include intensified industrial-scale agriculture and fishing, the spread of invasive species, logging and the replacement of natural forest with monoculture plantations, the group said in a report released in Buenos Aires. Over the long term, climate change may pose the most serious stress on birds.

Regarding specific regions of the world, BirdLife said:

-in Europe, 45 percent of common birds are declining;

-in Australia, resident wading birds have seen population losses of 81 percent in the last quarter century;

-in North America, 20 common birds' populations have been halved over the last 40 years;

-in Latin America, the once-common yellow cardinal is now classified as globally endangered;

-in Asia, populations of white-rumped vultures that numbered in the millions 16 years ago have crashed by 99.9 percent;

-in the Middle East, birds like the Eurasian eagle owl are believed to be vanishing from forests.

(Eurasian eagle owl photograph by Richard Mountney)

Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth

2008-09-19T09:03:00.004-04:00

From dailytech.com:

The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.

The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.

According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.

When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.

But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.

Polar bears 'could become extinct'

2008-09-18T11:12:00.002-04:00

From enn.com:

Polar bears and other rare species are in danger of dying out, scientists fear, as latest figures show the Artic sea ice is at record lows.

Scientists from the World Wildlife Fund, who are recording the ice cover over the North Pole, said less ice is predicted in the Arctic this year than in any other.

Experts say this not only means a loss of habitat to species like polar bears and loss of livelihood for indigenous peoples but could speed up global warming as water absorbs heat rather than reflecting the sun's rays back into space.

Dr Martin Sommerkorn, senior climate change advisor at WWF International's Arctic Programme, said: "We are expecting confirmation of 2008 being either the lowest or the second-lowest year in terms of summer ice coverage.

Migratory waterbird populations in decline

2008-09-16T08:25:00.003-04:00

Excerpted from enn.com:

New study shows a sharp drop in migratory waterbird populations along main migration routes in Africa and Eurasia.

The report: 'Conservation Status of Migratory Waterbirds in the African-Eurasian Flyways' prepared by Wetlands International for the African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbird Agreement (AEWA), reveals that of 522 studied migratory waterbird populations on routes across Africa and Eurasia, 40 per cent are in decline.

The main causes of population decrease include, infrastructure development, wetland reclamation, increasing pollution and hunting pressure.

These impacts are in many cases compounded by impacts of climate change and associated phenomena, such as increased frequency of droughts, sea-level rise and changes in Arctic tundra habitats.

Sea-level rise threatens coastal and inland wetland areas. These are crucial habitats for millions of migratory waterbirds. Huge numbers of waterbirds also breed in Arctic tundra habitats which too are threatened by climate change.

Migratory waterbirds, and in particular long-distance migrants, are highly vulnerable to environmental changes. To complete their annual life-cycles, they depend upon separate geographic regions in breeding and non-breeding seasons which may be thousands of kilometres apart, as well as a network of stop-over sites along the route.

Lowest ever sea ice in Arctic

2008-09-15T14:35:00.003-04:00

Excerpted from enn.com:

Declining ice thickness and what is looking like the second lowest coverage on record means that Arctic sea ice may well have reached its lowest levels ever in terms of total volume.

Final figures on minimum ice coverage for 2008 are expected in a matter of days, but they are already flirting with last year’s record low of 1.59 million square miles, or 4.13 million square kilometres.

“If you take reduced ice thickness into account, there is probably less ice overall in the Arctic this year than in any other year since monitoring began,” said Martin Sommerkorn, WWF International Arctic Programme’s Senior Climate Change Advisor. “This is also the first year that the Northwest Passage over the top of North America, and the Northeast Passage over the top of Russia are both free of ice.”

Dr. Sommerkorn said the continuing loss of older, thicker ice, means that the Arctic ice cover is following a trend of becoming younger and thinner each year. The area of ice that is at least 5 years old has decreased by 56% between 1985 and 2007. The oldest ice types have essentially disappeared. Taken together, the new figures clearly show the Arctic is experiencing the continuation of an accelerated declining trend.

Extreme waves battering Australia

2008-09-11T08:39:00.002-04:00

From PlanetArk.com:

Australia's vast coastline is increasingly being battered by destructive "extreme waves" driven in part by climate change, scientists said on Wednesday.

Research into wave size changes over the past 45 years showed waves of 3 metres (9.8 feet) in height or more were increasing, hitting Australia's southern coasts as severe storms become more frequent and intense, government experts said.

"Extreme wave conditions are greatest south of the Australian continent, associated with the passage of extra-tropical storms along Australia's southern margin," they said in a report.

Australia, the world's driest inhabited continent, is feeling an accelerated version of global warming, climate scientists say, leading to extreme droughts and sudden severe storms.

Deforestation escalates in Brazilian Amazon

2008-09-08T13:58:00.002-04:00

From enn.com:

Satellite imagery released last week provided further evidence that deforestation in Brazil's Amazon region accelerated dramatically this year.

Between August 2007 and July 2008, 8,147 square kilometers of the Brazilian Amazon were cleared, according to the country's National Institute for Space Research (INPE). This is an area more than twice the size of the U.S. state of Rhode Island.

The expanse of deforested land is about 69 percent greater than last year, when 4,820 square kilometers were removed.

Last year's deforestation numbers, however, were the lowest since recording began in the 1970s. The amount of forest cleared this year, while still substantial, is also less than previous years.

Warmer seas linked to strengthening hurricanes

2008-09-05T08:45:00.002-04:00

Excerpted from enn.com:

The theory that global warming may be contributing to stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic over the past 30 years is bolstered by a new study led by a Florida State University researcher. The study will be published in the Sept. 4 edition of the journal Nature.

Using global satellite data, FSU geography Professor James B. Elsner, University of Wisconsin-Madison Professor James P. Kossin and FSU postdoctoral researcher Thomas H. Jagger found that the strongest tropical cyclones are, in fact, getting stronger -- and that ocean temperatures play a role in driving this trend. This is consistent with the "heat-engine" theory of cyclone intensity.

"As seas warm, the ocean has more energy that can be converted to tropical cyclone wind," Elsner said.

Massive Arctic ice shelf breaks away

2008-09-03T16:19:00.003-04:00

A huge 19 square mile (55 square km) ice shelf in Canada's northern Arctic broke away last month and the remaining shelves have shrunk at a "massive and disturbing" rate, the latest sign of accelerating climate change in the remote region, scientists said on Tuesday.

They said the Markham Ice Shelf, one of just five remaining ice shelves in the Canadian Arctic, split away from Ellesmere Island in early August. They also said two large chunks totaling 47 square miles had broken off the nearby Serson Ice Shelf, reducing it in size by 60 percent.

"The changes ... were massive and disturbing," said Warwick Vincent, director of the Centre for Northern Studies at Laval University in Quebec.

Temperatures in large parts of the Arctic have risen far faster than the global average in recent decades, a development that experts say is linked to global warming.

"These substantial calving events underscore the rapidity of changes taking place in the Arctic," said Derek Mueller, an Arctic ice shelf specialist at Trent University in Ontario.

"These changes are irreversible under the present climate and indicate that the environmental conditions that have kept these ice shelves in balance for thousands of years are no longer present," he said in an e-mailed statement from the research team sent late on Tuesday.

Antarctic ozone hole may be larger in 2008

2008-08-31T17:45:00.005-04:00

From planetark.com:

The hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica may be larger this year than in 2007, the United Nations weather agency said on Friday.

The ozone layer shields the Earth from damaging ultra-violet rays that can cause skin cancer. The Antarctic ozone hole is normally about the size of North America but its ultimate size depends on weather conditions.

"As the sun returns to Antarctica after the polar night, it is expected that ozone depletion will speed up," the World Meteorological Organisation said in its latest Ozone Bulletin.

Satellite and other observations to date "could indicate that the 2008 ozone hole will be smaller than the 2006 ozone hole but larger than the one of 2007," the WMO said, noting this year's ozone depletion began "somewhat later than last year."

Arctic "beyond a point of no return"

2008-08-28T12:46:00.004-04:00

From today's New York Times:

The National Snow and Ice Data Center has reported that sea ice in the Arctic now covers about 2.03 million square miles. The lowest point since satellite measurements began in 1979 was 1.65 million square miles, last September.

With about three weeks left in the Arctic summer, this year could wind up breaking that record, scientists said.

Arctic ice always melts in summer and refreezes in winter. But over the years, more of the ice is lost to the sea with less of it recovered in winter. While ice reflects the sun’s heat, the open ocean absorbs more heat, and the melting accelerates warming in other parts of the world.

Sea ice also serves as primary habitat for threatened polar bears.

“We could very well be in that quick slide downward in terms of passing a tipping point,” said Mark Serreze, a senior scientist at the data center, in Boulder, Colo. “It’s tipping now. We’re seeing it happen now.”

Five climate scientists, four of them specialists on the Arctic, told The Associated Press that it was fair to call what was happening in the Arctic a “tipping point.”

The most recent ice retreat primarily reflects melt in the Chukchi Sea, off Alaska’s northwest coast, and the East Siberian Sea, off the coast of eastern Russia, according to the center.

The Chukchi Sea is home to one of two populations of Alaska polar bears.

Federal observers flying for a whale survey on Aug. 16 spotted nine polar bears swimming in open ocean in the Chukchi. The bears were 15 to 65 miles off the Alaska shore. Some were swimming north, apparently trying to reach the polar ice edge, which on that day was 400 miles away.

Polar bears are powerful swimmers and have been recorded on swims of 100 miles, but the ordeal can leave them exhausted and susceptible to drowning.

And the melt in sea ice has kicked in another effect, long predicted, called “Arctic amplification,” Dr. Serreze said.

That is when the warming up north is increased in a feedback mechanism and the effects spill southward starting in autumn, Dr. Serreze said. Over the last few years, the bigger melt has meant more warm water that releases more heat into the air during fall cooling, making the atmosphere warmer than normal.

On top of that, researchers are investigating “alarming” reports in the last few days of the release of methane from long-frozen Arctic waters, possibly from the warming of the sea, said Bill Hare, a Greenpeace climate scientist, who was attending a climate conference in Ghana. Giant burps of methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas, is a long-feared effect of warming in the Arctic that would accelerate warming even more, according to scientists.

Over all, the picture of what is happening in the Arctic is getting worse, said Bob Corell, who headed a multinational scientific assessment of Arctic conditions a few years ago. “We’re moving,” he said, “beyond a point of no return.”

Ivory poachers decimate Congo elephant population

2008-08-25T15:27:00.002-04:00

From planetark.com:

Poachers in Congo have killed a fifth of the elephants in Africa's oldest national park this year as China buys more ivory, the park's director said on Friday.

Rwandan rebels have killed seven Savannah elephants in the past 10 days alone in the Virunga National Park, along Congo's eastern border with Rwanda and Uganda, Emmanuel de Merode told Reuters.

"We've definitely lost 20 percent of the population this year and probably more," he said. "We have rangers with them, and we're trying to reinforce them. But (the rangers) are outnumbered 20 to one."

The 790,000-hectare (2 million-acre) reserve was home to one of central Africa's largest Savannah elephant herds in the 1970s numbering around 5,000.

But a brutal 1998-2003 war, heavy poaching, corruption and mismanagement of the park have taken a heavy toll. Today conservationists believe no more than 300 elephants remain.

China, among the world's main destinations for illegal ivory, was granted permission last month to buy 108 tonnes of ivory stocks from Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species.

De Merode singled out China's growing appetite for ivory as one of the root causes of this year's increase in elephant killings, as poachers attempt to launder their illegal ivory for legitimate sale.

Polar bears' swim is a gloomy sign

2008-08-22T10:25:00.002-04:00

From latimes.com:

Nine polar bears were observed in one day swimming in open ocean off Alaska's northwest coast, an increase from previous surveys that may indicate warming conditions are forcing bears to make riskier long-distance swims to stable sea ice or land.

The bears were spotted in the Chukchi Sea on a flight Saturday by a federal marine contractor, Science Applications International Corp.

Polar bears spend most of their lives on sea ice, which they use as a platform to hunt their primary prey, ringed seals. Conservation groups fear that one consequence of less ice will be more energy-sapping long-distance swims by polar bears trying to reach feeding, mating or denning areas.

Steven Amstrup, senior polar bear scientist for the U.S. Geological Survey in Anchorage, said the bears could have been on a patch of ice that broke up northwest of Alaska's coast.

"The bears that had been on that last bit of ice that remained over shallow shelf waters are now swimming either toward land or toward the rest of the sea ice, which is a considerable distance north," he said in an e-mail response to questions.

It probably is not a big deal for a polar bear in good condition to swim 10 or 15 miles, Amstrup said, but swims of 50 to 100 miles could be exhausting.

"We have some observations of bears swimming in to shore when the sea ice was not visible on the horizon," he said. "In some of these cases, the bears arrive so spent energetically that they literally don't move for a couple days after hitting shore."

Observers have no indication of the fate of the nine polar bears.

Update: Colony collapse disorder

2008-08-20T09:23:00.002-04:00

From ENN.com:

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is refusing to disclose records about a new class of pesticides that could be playing a role in the disappearance of millions of honeybees in the United States, a lawsuit filed Monday charges.

The Natural Resources Defense Council wants to see the studies that the EPA required when it approved a pesticide made by Bayer CropScience five years ago.

The environmental group filed the suit as part of an effort to find out how diligently the EPA is protecting honeybees from dangerous pesticides, said Aaron Colangelo, a lawyer for the group in Washington.

In the last two years, beekeepers have reported unexplained losses of hives - 30 percent and upward - leading to a phenomenon called colony collapse disorder. Scientists believe that the decline in bees is linked to an onslaught of pesticides, mites, parasites and viruses, as well as a loss of habitat and food.

Rising ocean acidity slows marine fertilization

2008-08-18T11:51:00.002-04:00

From reuters.com:

Rising acidification of the ocean could reduce fertilization of marine invertebrates and might eventually wipe out colonies of sea urchins, lobsters, mussels and oysters, according to a study.

Scientists knew that ocean acidification was eating away at the shells of marine animals, but the new study has found that rising acidity hindered marine sperm from swimming to and fertilising eggs in the ocean.

Climate change and the subsequent acidification of the world's oceans will significantly reduce the successful fertilisation of certain marine species by the year 2100, said the report by Australian and Swedish scientists.

Coastal dead zones spread globally

2008-08-15T10:44:00.002-04:00

From Reuters:

"Dead zones" in coastal waters -- regions of ocean floor so deprived of oxygen that most marine life cannot survive -- are spreading worldwide at an alarming pace, scientists said on Thursday.

Driving the trend are nitrogen and phosphorous from chemical agricultural fertilizers that reach coastal waters after flowing off farm fields and into streams and rivers, according to the study published in the journal Science. Nitrogen compounds from burning fossils fuels, particularly from power plants and cars, also are settling back to the ground and eventually wash into coastal waters, they said.

This decade alone, the number of coastal dead zones has risen by about a third to 405 worldwide, with clusters on the coasts of the United States and Europe. Combined, they take up an area of at least 95,000 square miles.

The biggest one measures about 30,000 square miles in the Baltic Sea, the researchers said. This is followed in size by one in the Gulf of Mexico starting at the mouth of the Mississippi River in the United States and one at the mouth of China's Yangtze River in the East China Sea.

The number of dead zones started to approximately double every 10 years starting in the 1960s, the researchers said.
There were 301 such dead zones at the end of the 1990s, 132 at the end of the 1980s, 63 at the end of the 1970s and 39 at the end of the 1960s.

The researchers said dead zones must be considered an important source of stress on marine ecosystems, ranking alongside over-fishing, habitat loss from human development and harmful algal blooms as global environmental problems.

Dead zones are formed when excess nutrients, mostly nitrogen and phosphorus, enter coastal waters and help fertilize blooms of algae. When these tiny plants die and sink to the sea bottom, they provide a food source for bacteria, which consume dissolved oxygen from surrounding waters.

As a result, there are large areas of sea floor with insufficient oxygen to support most marine life.

Meltdown in the Arctic is speeding up

2008-08-12T08:37:00.002-04:00

From ENN.com:

Ice at the North Pole melted at an unprecedented rate last week, with leading scientists warning that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by 2013.

Satellite images show that ice caps started to disintegrate dramatically several days ago as storms over Alaska's Beaufort Sea began sucking streams of warm air into the Arctic.

As a result, scientists say that the disappearance of sea ice at the North Pole could exceed last year's record loss. More than a million square kilometres melted over the summer of 2007 as global warming tightened its grip on the Arctic. But such destruction could now be matched, or even topped, this year.

Tropical downpours worsening

2008-08-11T08:28:00.002-04:00

From Reuters:

Tropical downpours are becoming more frequent and the trend seems worse than expected, bringing greater risks of flash floods, scientists said on Thursday.

"As the tropics warm are are seeing an increased frequency in the heaviest rainfall," said Richard Allan of the University of Reading in England, who co-authored a study of tropical rains with Brian Soden of the University of Miami.

The satellite review of tropical rainstorms since the 1980s gave the first observational evidence to confirm computer models that predict more intense cloudbursts because of global warming stoked by human activities, they said.

Writing in the journal Science, they also said the trend to extreme soakings was stronger than predicted by computer models "implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes ... may be underestimated".