MPNblog.com | Missouri Political News

Nixon approval falls to 44 percent in Nov. SurveyUSA poll

2009-11-28T08:33:00.008-06:00

It's undeniable for the Nixon Administration, things aren't rosy in Missouri these days. And Nixon's approval rating shows that sentiment among Missouri voters.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Nixon's approval at 44 percent, a 6-point drop over the last month.

Last week, we offered some criticism of another polling firm which generally offers less statistically valid results, but it seems that poll, which showed Nixon's approval at 42 percent, was not far off.

What may be amiss in the new SurveyUSA poll is the proportion of Democrats included. Although the preceding eight approval surveys included approximately 40 percent Democrats, the current one included just 30 percent, a major change in the underlying survey population. This difference alone likely captures the bulk of the decrease in Nixon's approval, perhaps more than actual changes in approval.

Among Republicans, Nixon approval didn't show much movement, although the number of Republicans surveyed did marginally increase.

The Independent numbers may cause some alarm for Democrats in Missouri. The number of Independents greatly increased in the survey, but the approval for Nixon in this crucial voting bloc declined by 9-points (±7.3%).

Regionally the make-up of the survey didn't shift much, but the approval numbers by region did. Nixon's approval actually climbed 14-points (±10.6%) in the North and 1-point in Kansas City (± 8.7%). The rest of the state wasn't quite as rosy as approval declined 13-points in Southwest (±10%), 9-points in St. Louis (±7%), and an astounding 18-points in the Southeast (±10.7%).

There is one bright note for Nixon's team to compare to, at this same point 11 months into the Administration of Nixon's past political rival, former Gov. Matt Blunt (R), Blunt had just a 34 percent approval rating.

For Nixon, the current six month approval average is 52 percent. Blunt averaged just 35 percent over the same time period. So in a relative sense, Nixon does seem to be doing better than his predecessor.

The SurveyUSA poll surveyed 600 likely Missouri voters on Nov. 23 and has a margin of error of 4.1 percent.

Related Links:
SurveyUSA Polling Data

Bill pre-filing to begin Dec. 1st

2009-11-27T06:25:00.000-06:00

Missouri legislators will begin pre-filing legislation for the 95th General Assembly next Tuesday.

Pre-filing, which officially begins Dec. 1, offers legislators an opportunity to make their priorities known before the session begins, and perhaps even set the tone for the entire session.

In 2009, of the 1,983 bills and resolutions filed in the state legislature, 367 (19%) were pre-filed. Of those, 141 (7% of the total) were pre-filed on Dec. 1.

And pre-filed bills do turn out to be pretty significant. Of the 91 bills approved by the legislature in 2009, nearly one-quarter were filed before the session convened.

In the House, the first 25 bill numbers are typically reserved for appropriations bills, with the remaining numbers assigned based on the order in which bills are filed. In the Senate, members can typically select high priority bills for number assignments as the session opens.

The legislative session convenes on Jan. 6, 2010.

Who does your turkey support?

2009-11-26T05:45:00.010-06:00

Your turkey may have a partisan flavor this year, because at least one poultry company is coming out with early investments for Missouri's 2010 election cycle.

Arkansas-based Tyson Foods, one of Forbes' 100 largest corporations in the U.S., donated $5,800 to three candidates, including $5,000 to Gov. Jay Nixon (D), $300 to State Sen. Rob Mayer (R), and $500 to State Rep. Billy Pat Wright (R).

Tyson also contributed to many of the same candidates in 2008, plus Attorney General Chris Koster (D) who received $1,350 last year. The contribution to Koster is especially noteworthy since as Attorney General, he is responsible for enforcing environmental statutes, and Tyson's environmental record in Missouri isn't exactly perfect.

Tyson operates several plants in the state, including one in Noel, Missouri recognized by the Bush Administration's Environmental Protection Agency several years ago for outstanding environmental performance. A few years before that, Tyson's Sedalia plant settled with the state for violations of the federal Clean Water Act. Even with a tarnished environmental record, one study estimates Tyson is responsible for 2,600 jobs in Pettis county alone.

If you're eating a Butterball, don't worry, your turkey isn't supporting any other turkeys. According to the Missouri Ethics Commission, Butterball made no political contributions to Missouri candidates this election cycle.

And regardless of what kind of turkey you're having, Happy Thanksgiving.

McCaskill attends Obama Administration's first state dinner

2009-11-25T01:21:00.001-06:00

Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) attended the Obama Administration's first official state dinner for the Prime Minister of India Tuesday night.

McCaskill, an outspoken supporter of Obama during the 2008 campaign, was one of just a handful of Congressman invited to the event, according to the official White House invitation list.

The Hill reported Tuesday afternoon on McCaskill's dilemma today about whether to become the first politician to Tweet during a state dinner.

"Trying to figure out if it's tacky to tweet from State dinner? What do you think? I think Mom would say yes,it's definitely tacky," McCaskill said in a Twitter message.

She opted to avoid doing so.

Senate District 24: Large contributions to Lamping far exceed Plocher's 3Q fundraising

2009-11-24T04:36:00.013-06:00

Three Democrats and two Republicans are currently fundraising for primary contests in Missouri Senate District 24.

This open Democratic-leaning seat is being vacated by term-limited Sen. Joan Bray (D). When Bray was first elected in 2002, she won by only a 5 point margin. Given what some analysts are calling a growing anti-Democratic mood in Missouri, this seat will be one to watch closely if the mood swings to heavily favor Republican candidates.

Of the two Republicans in the contest, it's not exactly clear who the fundraising leader is because one of the candidates formed a fundraising committee after the close of the last fundraising period.

Republican Candidates
John Lamping (R) is a Senate candidate many Republicans are ecstatic about. Lamping has a background as a brokerage manager and hedge fund partner, and is the cousin of former St. Louis Cardinals president Mark Lamping.

And so far in the fourth quarter his fundraising power is evident. Lamping already pulled in two large contributions since forming a fundraising committee on Oct. 27. One of the contributions for $5,500 comes from State Sen. Kevin Engler (R). The other is $25,000 from Massachusetts-based venture capitalist Tom Roberts, who also happens to be the same Roberts Princeton University's new soccer stadium is named after.

Lamping will likely face St. Louis attorney Dean Plocher (R) in the Republican primary next year. Plocher reported just $7,744 in receipts during the last quarter and $1,405 in debt. At the end of the period, Plocher had just $5,643 cash-on-hand. Unless Plocher raised some serious cash in small increments during the past couple months, it's likely that the two large donations Lamping already received in the 4th quarter will trump his receipts.

One thing is certain, if Plocher is going to stay in this contest, he needs to show he's serious about fundraising and capable of raising the funds on the same level as Lamping.

Democratic Candidates -- click here for earlier analysis

Related Links:
Plocher Campaign Finance Reports
Plocher campaign website
Lamping campaign finance reports

St. Louis Rep arrested for bizarre 'robbery'

2009-11-23T20:24:00.001-06:00

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch broke a story this morning about the arrest of State Rep. Don Calloway Jr. (D), from St. Louis County.

Calloway, who is currently serving his first-term in the state House, apparently grabbed a checkbook from officials at a Northeast fire district board meeting Sunday. Calloway reportedly took the checkbook only to determine which bank payments would be coming from to fund severance payments to two fire district officials.

Read the full Post-Dispatch coverage here.

SurveyUSA pegs Nixon approval rating at 50 percent

2009-11-23T20:03:00.004-06:00

A SurveyUSA poll released at the end of Oct. pegged Gov. Jay Nixon's (D) approval at 50 percent. That's 8 points higher than a recent Public Policy Polling survey, conducted just two weeks later.

Both surveys are phone-based and neither provides a response rate, but that's where the similarities diverge.

What then explains the difference between these polls taken just two weeks apart?

For starters, SurveyUSA has a smaller sample size (n=600) and thus a larger margin of error than PPP (n=763). This generally means the results are less statistically precise for SurveyUSA.

Then there's the fact that SurveyUSA respondents are not necessarily likely Missouri voters, as is the case for PPP respondents.

And of course the elephant in the room is that SurveyUSA weights respondents' opinions to create a demographically-representative sample.

These differences make the surveys slightly incomparable. But on top of these factors are other inherent methodological differences that result in variation from accurate estimates. This variation was estimated by FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver for all political polling firms nationally. Both SurveyUSA and PPP ranked comparatively low, but there was a three-quarter-point difference in their estimates, with SurveyUSA being slightly more accurate.

So which poll is more trustworthy? Silver would likely back SurveyUSA which has had more reliable predictions nationally, especially since the two polling firms' estimates aren't even within each other's margin of error. Given that the geographic sampling from PPP doesn't quite jibe with where the majority of voters live, we're inclined to back the SurveyUSA numbers as more likely a description of the state of Missouri voters' opinions.

One thing is certain, Nixon's popularity isn't what it once was. Both polls show sizable declines between Jan. and Nov., and that's something you can believe.

PPP Respondents by Missouri Area Code
314............21%
417............21%
573............17%
636............15%
660............6%
816............20%

Related Links:
SurveyUSA Approval Ratings for Nixon
SurveyUSA Methodology
SurveyUSA Regional Definitions

Senate District 24: Page maintains extensive fundraising lead for Democratic primary

2009-11-23T04:12:00.002-06:00

Three Democrats and two Republicans are currently fundraising for primary contests in Missouri Senate District 24.

The seat, open in 2010, is being vacated by term-limited Sen. Joan Bray (D). When Bray was first elected in 2002, she won by only a 5 point margin. Given what some analysts are calling a growing anti-Democratic mood in Missouri, this seat will be one to watch closely.

If fundraising is an adequate proxy in this senate district, former Lt. Gov. candidate Sam Page (D) is taking an early lead among his challengers with more than twice as much cash-on-hand and three times as much in receipts as the other Democratic candidates.

Democratic Candidates

Former State Rep. and Lt. Gov. candidate Sam Page (D) hauled in $100,524 during the last fundraising quarter, and just 2 percent came from political committees. Of the itemized totals, 85 percent, or $79,530, came donors in Missouri. The majority of the funds (67%) were based in the St. Louis region. In all, Page had 171 itemized donors in Missouri during the quarter. Page reported raising $350,524 in total for the election cycle to-date and has $202,028 cash-on-hand.

Former State Rep. Barbara Fraser (D) reported raising $39,625 during the third fundraising quarter of 2009 bringing total fundraising for the election cycle up to $106,967. Of Fraser's itemized totals for the quarter, 97% of the total funds ($25,875) came from individuals within the state of Missouri through 85 separate contributions. Those contributions were concentrated almost exclusively in the St. Louis Region. At the end of the period Fraser reported $86,967 cash-on-hand.

Rep. Michael Corcoran (D-St. Ann) reported raising $42,273 so for this election, $7,626 of which came in during the fundraising quarter ending Sept. 30. Roughly one-third of Corcoran's contributions came from political committees, although the original filing with the Missouri Ethics Commission mislabeled these contributions. Of the non-political committee contributions amounting to $4,274, 75 percent came from 32 donors inside Missouri. At the end of the period, Corcoran's committee reported $17,695 cash-on-hand and $42,273 total receipts during the current election cycle.

Republican Candidates -- Part 2 coming soon...

Related Links:
Corcoran Campaign Finance Reports
Page Campaign Finance Reports
Fraser Campaign Finance Reports

Nixon approval rate at 42 percent

2009-11-22T11:15:00.001-06:00

Gov. Jay Nixon's approval rating sits at 42 percent, according to a recent poll conducted by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP).

Respondents who approve of Nixon include 36 percent of John McCain supporters in the 2008 election, 25 percent of self-described conservatives, and 23 percent of Republicans.

"It's been a pretty successful first year for the state's new Governor," PPP analysts said. "42 percent of voters approve of the job he's doing to 25 percent disapproving. In a time when the popularity of many chief executives across the country is tanking, those are very solid numbers."

A total of 33 percent of voters had no opinion of Nixon, which is considerably high.

PPP surveyed 763 likely Missouri voters between Nov. 13 and 15. The margin of errors is +/-3.6 percent.

In Sept., SurveyUSA pegged Nixon's approval at 51 percent with a disapproval rating of 38 percent.

Related Links:
PPP Missouri Approvals
PPP Survey Results (PDF)

Ed Martin attacks wrong website in stimulus critique

2009-11-22T10:52:00.008-06:00

Update: As of Nov. 23, Martin's campaign had updated its website to correct the mistake cited in this post.

Conservatives continue to assail job creation estimates from the federal stimulus released by the White House Recovery Board, some of which were erroneously coded in nonexistent congressional districts.

Congressional candidate Ed Martin (R) is offering his own critique with one problem -- he's targeting the wrong website.

The statement on Martin's website says: "Statement on Recovery.org Scandal" (see screenshot). The official federal government website to track stimulus spending, however, is Recovery.gov. The .org website Martin referenced is run by Onvia, Inc.

Martin's press release goes on to state "that same web site shows that Carnahan and the Obama government spent $86 million dollars to 'create' only 73 jobs in Missouri - at a cost of more than a million dollars per job."

That much is true, although Martin omits some of the context.

First, recipients of federal stimulus jobs reported 73.7 jobs (which rounds up to 74 not 73) created or saved during the first 8 months of federal stimulus spending, through Sept. 30th. That figure also doesn't capture jobs created by state agencies, which are reported to Jefferson City zip codes instead of their respective locations throughout the state.

Second, just because funding was reported by recipients doesn't mean it was actually spent, or outlaid in budgetary jargon. Missouri recipients reported $2.3 billion in awards, but at of the close of the reporting period had spent only $0.4 billion.

In Missouri's 3rd Congressional district, where Martin is competing for the Republican nomination to challenge incumbent Rep. Russ Carnahan (D), recipients received $86.2 million but didn't spend it all by the time recipients were required to report, at least not yet.

We admit the data can be confusing, and that various websites out there have similar names, but it behooves candidates for public office to make an attempt to present accurate information. Martin failed to do so in this case just as fellow Congressional candidate Vicky Hartzler has done in her own critique.

Martin is facing Chris Sander (R) for the Republican Party's nomination next year in Congressional District 3. The winner of that contest will face off against Carnahan next Nov.

Related Links:
Recovery.gov (official website)
Recovery.org (private website)
Ed Martin Screenshots
Ed Martin Press Release

Missouri taxes generally regressive, study shows

2009-11-20T04:44:00.000-06:00

Even though Missouri is generally perceived as a low-tax state, the overall tax structure tends to favor the wealthy.

That's according to a new report released this week by the Washington D.C.-based Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP).

Nationally the study found middle- and low-income families tend to pay higher shares of taxes than their wealthy counterparts. That regressive trend also holds for Missouri.

“The harsh reality is that most states require their poor and middle income
taxpayers to pay the most taxes as a share of income,” Matthew Gardner of ITEP said in a press release.

In Missouri, just one of six states to offer deductions for federal taxes paid, the wealthiest one percent of taxpayers pay an estimated 6.6 percent in taxes. The lowest 20 percent of taxpayers, however, pay 9.6 percent.

“Fairness is in the eye of the beholder.” noted Gardner. “But virtually anyone would agree that this upside-down approach to state and local taxes is astonishingly inequitable.”

ITEP is a think-tank that has focused on distributional tax issues since the 1980s.

Related Links:
ITEP's 'Who Pays' Study
ITEP's Missouri Fact Sheet

State GOP candidates lead Dems in contributions greater than 5k in Nov.

2009-11-19T21:50:00.000-06:00

Republican Party candidates in Missouri reported more contributions greater than $5,000 than their Democratic Party counterparts so far in Nov.

According to data from the Missouri Ethics Commission, GOP candidates and party committees received 10 contributions greater than or equal to $5,000, totaling $81,500. The Democratic Party, in contrast, has received just $25,002 in 4 contributions.

Contributions span all levels of races including statewide, state representatives and state senators.

Issue campaigns are also gearing up for the next election cycle. A total of 5 committees received 7 large contributions totaling $121,659. The committees include Citizens in Support of E-911, Missouri SOS Ballot, Our Children-Our Future-Our Decision, PAC of the Kansas City Chamber of Commerce, and Supporters of Health Research and Treatments.

Of those committees, just one -- Missouri SOS Ballot -- received the large contribution from outside Missouri. On Nov. 17, that committee received $30,000 from Las Vegas-based Save Our Secret Ballot, Inc.

Related Links:
Ethics Commission Contributions > $5,000

Hartzler misses forest in critique of stimulus job creation

2009-11-19T18:53:00.007-06:00

Congressional candidate Vicky Hartzler (R) showed a level of ignorance Thursday with comments criticizing federal stimulus jobs reporting.

Hartzler issued a press release that hops on a conservative bandwagon aimed at criticizing reported job estimates in misidentified congressional districts. Hartzler immediately jumps to the conclusion that government can't do anything right.

"What this tells us above all is that it's time to change from the failed policies of big spending, borrowing and debt favored by Rep. Skelton," Hartzler said in the press release.

But the jobs Hartzler referenced are also geocoded by zip code, for which no broad errors have been identified. Apparently people can identify where they work, which is more than can be said for identifying their political representatives.

More importantly, the misidentification of congressional districts is a problem with recipients reporting data, not with the federal bureaucracy overseeing reporting.

Sec. 1512 of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (P.L. 111-5) requires recipients of federal stimulus funds to report data quarterly to federal agencies. According to the White House Recovery Board, recipients are ultimately responsible for the data, not federal agencies. Although federal agencies scoured through the data to identify mistakes prior to its public release, even the White House acknowledged minor errors would remain.

Does that mean taxpayer funds were flagrantly wasted? Not at all, says Vice President Joe Biden (D).

"Every single solitary penny that got sent out there to a state, a construction company, a nonprofit had to be accounted for," Biden told Daily Show host Jon Stewart earlier this week. "And it all got put on Recovery.gov. What happened was, out of 130,000 people reporting in what they did with the money...There was bad civics classes for those [who misreported districts.] They had to fill out a form, what district are you in, and there was no such district."

So what does it mean that recipients are misidentifying congressional districts? It does not mean the jobs are fake or the reports are inherently flawed, but it does show a level of political ignorance among Americans. And with Congress' approval rating of 27 percent, it's no wonder Americans are tuning out what's happening in Congress.

Perhaps that's the same ignorance Hartzler and others have expressed in misidentifying the owners of the data being criticized.

As for Hartzler's perpetuation of the notion that jobs are being misreported, we say show us. There would be nothing better for our readership than some hard proof of government waste. Show us the cases where folks misidentified their city.

Yes Congressional districts might be off a bit here and there, but where's the meat to show government waste? Where is the example of 50 jobs created in a zip code with 10 people?

So far, we haven't found problems of significant note either.

Our advice to Hartzler: move away from the talking points that lead you to focus on the trees instead of the forest. There are much bigger problems to talk about in the 2010 campaign. For starters, perhaps you could focus on reducing voters' ignorance.

And for the record, the mistakes on jobs reporting go both ways. A number of projects have been identified where recipients discussed new jobs in the summaries but didn't add the totals in the jobs created field.

According to Government Executive's analysis: "Repeatedly, recipients of grants and contracts discussed jobs created or saved in the narrative column but failed to include them in the total."

Hartlzer is campaigning for the Republican nomination in Missouri's 4th Congressional District (not to be confused with the nonexistent 14th district). Three other Republicans are also vying for the nomination. The winner of the primary will face 16-term Congressman Ike Skelton (D).

Related Links:
Hartzler's Press Release (PDF)
Recovery.gov

Blunt and Carnahan in statistical dead heat

2009-11-19T03:46:00.032-06:00

Congressman Roy Blunt (R) and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) are in a statistical dead heat for the 2010 Missouri Senate race, according to a new poll released this week.

The poll, conducted by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, shows that in a race between Blunt and Carnahan, it's Carnahan that leads by 1 percentage point. In other words, both candidates are within the statistical margin of error, 3.6%. However, 15% of voters haven't decided yet which candidate they will vote for.

The results showed 40% of the 763 likely Missouri voters had a favorable view of Carnahan, but just 30% had a favorable view of Blunt. That same question was even more revealing for one of Blunt's primary opponents, Chuck Purgason, where 79% of respondents weren't sure whether they had a favorable opinion or not. Purgason, who obviously isn't well known across the state, has had a tough time getting his campaign off the ground.

The survey's crosstabs reveal some truly interesting tidbits. For instance, Blunt picks up 5% of Barack Obama's supporters, but Carnahan picks up 10% of respondents who voted for John McCain in 2008. But independent voters are making an early swing to Blunt (44%) as opposed to Carnahan (32%), with 24% of independents undecided.

Missouri respondents also reported low approval for Obama, at 43 percent. That approval included the majority of liberals (83%) and moderates (57%) but few conservatives (14%). Statistical margins of error were not provided for sub-components of the survey.

The low approval of the president may have lingering effects on the Senate race next year, when Republicans are expected to generally have favorable electoral outcomes. If moderates and independent undecided voters swing toward Blunt, the race is over for Carnahan.

"If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity," Dean Debnam of PPP said. "But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that's made this race highly competitive."

PPP's pollsters also identified the race was already defined rigidly on partisan lines, no suprise to close watchers of the race.

Despite the presentation in the poll, Blunt must first win the Republican primary next summer before becoming the official nominee. Currently two other candidates--Purgason and Mark Memoly--are registered with the Federal Elections Commission to raise funds for the race.

The PPP poll was conducted between Nov. 13 and 15.

Related Links:
PPP Poll Results

Smith successor sworn into state senate

2009-11-18T20:59:00.000-06:00

Just one day after his predecessor was sentenced to federal prison, State Sen. Joe Keaveny (D) was sworn in to represent Missouri's 4th Senatorial District.

53-year-old Keaveny had the oath of office administered by Supreme Court Judge Michael Wolff.

Keaveny, a longtime banking official, was elected in a special election on Nov. 3rd. and will serve the remainder of former state Sen. Jeff Smith's (D) current term, which ends on Jan. 5, 2011.

Smith plead guilty to federal conspiracy charges earlier this year and was sentenced to federal prison yesterday.

Related Links:
Missouri Senate Press Release

Baker tapped as regional HHS director

2009-11-18T20:34:00.000-06:00

Federal Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius (D) appointed former state Rep. Judy Baker (D) as a regional director yesterday.

Baker will represent HHS Region VII which covers the states of Missouri, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska. Baker's responsibilities will include coordinating federal health policy with state and local entities.

"HHS welcomes...Judy...and we look forward to working with [her] to achieve HHS' mission to protect the health of all Americans and provide essential human services," Secretary Sebelius said in a press release. "Their individual experience and knowledge of our department's most important issues, as well as local understanding of the people and institutions in their respective Regions make them a welcome addition to HHS."

Baker previously represented the 25th House District, which includes part of Columbia. She is currently a partner at Cura Advantage, a consulting firm that focuses on health care system improvements.

Related Links:
HHS Press Release

Nixon proposes tuition freeze for second consecutive year

2009-11-18T05:17:00.028-06:00

Missouri college students won't have to pay more for tuition next year thanks to a plan announced by Gov. Jay Nixon on Tuesday.

Under Nixon's proposal, state colleges and universities that agree not to raise tuition will receive only a 5.2 percent reduction for the next fiscal year. Schools this year agreed to do the same and in exchange received stable funding.

"To turn this economy around, Missourians must be trained, educated and ready to work, and that's why it was vital that we kept tuition flat for Missouri families," Nixon said in a prepared statement. "As tuition skyrockets by double digits in other states, university leaders, faculty members and my administration have worked together to put Missouri students first and protect them from tuition spikes for the second year in a row. By helping keep higher education affordable, we are taking bold steps to prepare the workforce that will move Missouri forward."

Total higher education funding will be reduced by $42 million, according to estimates provided by the Governor's office. The plan will require approval of the state legislature and each education institutions' governing board.

The freezes of tuition increases for two consecutive years show Nixon's commitment to Missouri students. The freezes follow average annual tuition increases of 7.5 percent over the past decade.

"The governor's action today strikes the best balance in a difficult and fiscally challenging time for our state," University of Missouri President Forsee said in a press release. "This agreement mitigates the magnitude of the cut that higher education would otherwise have received and enables us to hold undergraduate tuition flat for one more year."

Related Links
Governor's Press Release

More Missourians going hungry, increase in insecurity alarming

2009-11-17T21:10:00.001-06:00

The number of Missourians without access to enough food for active, healthy lifestyles is increasing according to a new study released this week by the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.

The Show Me State reported a 14 percent rate of food insecurity, which represents 340,000 households in the state. Missouri's rate is the highest among adjacent states and well above the national average of 12.2 percent.

Compared to the 1996-98 average, Missouri's food insecurity rate jumped by 3.9 percentage points, the largest increase of any state. Even more alarming is that the increase was in fact statistically significant at a 90 percent confidence level (t > 1.645).

The results also worsened nationally compared to one year ago. According to USDA's report:

In 2008, 85.4 percent of U.S. households were food secure throughout the year. Food-secure households had consistent access to enough food for active healthy lives for all household members at all times during the year. The remaining 14.6 percent (17 million households) were food insecure. These households, at some time during the year, had difficulty providing enough food for all their members due to a lack of resources. The prevalence of food insecurity was up from 11.1 percent (13 million households) in 2007 and was the highest observed since nationally representative food security surveys were initiated in 1995.

The results show households most likely to face food insecurity are headed by a single parent. Surprisingly, there is little distinction between rural and metropolitan areas. Thus this is an issue that spans geographically to areas often generalized in the political spectrum.

The report is compiled by USDA's Economic Research Service in coordination with the U.S. Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey.

Related Links:
USDA Food Insecurity Report 2008

Two former state Democratic lawmakers sentenced for felonies

2009-11-17T19:45:00.000-06:00

Two former state Democratic lawmakers were sentenced today after pleading guilty to federal conspiracy and obstruction of justice charges back in Sept.

The charges stem from a cover-up in former State Sen. Jeff Smith's (D) 2004 congressional campaign against Congressman Russ Carnahan (D). Smith coordinated a negative attack ad campaign against Carnahan with a political committee, then lied to the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) about his involvement.

Smith was sentenced to 366 days in federal prison on two separate charges while former state Rep. Steve Brown (D), who worked on Smith's campaign, received two years of probation due to his cooperation with federal investigators.

“Our justice system doesn’t work very well when people interfere with it,” U.S. District Judge Carol Jackson reportedly told Smith during sentencing.

Missouri Attorney General Chris Koster (D) even went to bat for Smith, submitting a letter to Jackson requesting a lessened sentence for Smith. Smith was one of three Democratic state senators who endorsed Koster's campaign during the Democratic primary in 2008.

Hartzler plans campaign announcement tour this weekend

2009-11-17T18:21:00.000-06:00

Former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R) announced twice today that she will officially announce her congressional campaign this weekend.

The first email sent out by the Hartzler campaign didn't include the list of stops on the tour. The campaign noted the mistake with a follow-up message to supporters two hours later.

As a point of irony, the 22-stop tour begins in the city of Peculiar where Hartzler is surely counting on the town slogan--"where the odds are with you"--to help her campaign.

Hartlzer is one of four Republicans currently registered with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) to raise funds in Missouri's 4th Congressional District. The others include Bill Stouffer, Brian Riley, and Jim Scholz. The winner of the Republican primary will face moderate Congressman Ike Skelton (D) who has represented the district for 32 years.

Here's the full list of stops planned by the Hartzler campaign:

Friday, November 20
8:00 AM Branaman Cabinets, 22701 S Peculiar Dr, Peculiar
9:15 AM Gazebo by the Courthouse, 100 W Franklin, Clinton
10:15 AM Landmark Restaurant, 301 S Main, Lowry City
11:15 AM Senior Center, 102 W Tilden, Humansville
12:30 PM Crossline Center, 120 N Main, El Dorado Springs
2:00 PM Brown Rentals, Hwy 60 and Hwy 39, Greenfield
3:15 PM Blue Top Restaurant, 57 SE 1st St, Lamar
4:15 PM Morefew Community Room, 901 S. Adams, Nevada
5:15 PM Corner Hardware, 107 W Ohio, Butler
7:15 PM Embree Electric, 111 N State Fair Blvd, Sedalia
8:30 PM Cadle McGrew Chevrolet, 701 N Monroe, Versailles
9:30 PM Worship Center, 511C South Oak, California

Saturday, November 21
8:00 AM Dunn Bros Coffee, 3218 W Edgewood Dr #1300, Jefferson City
9:30 AM Lake Area Clinic, 948 E Hwy 54, Camdenton
10:45 AM Dairy Queen, 912 S Ash St, Buffalo
12:00 PM Ziggie's Café, 1321 Spur Dr, Marshfield
1:30 PM Dr. Benny Thomas' office, 215 North St, Waynesville
2:30 PM Radio Shack, 430 S Jefferson Ave, Lebanon
4:15 PM Tator’s Family Restaurant, Hwy 54 and 254, Hermitage
5:30 PM Rick's Lincoln Inn, N Hwy 65, Lincoln
7:30 PM City Centre Suites, 123 E. Gay, Warrensburg
8:45 PM Broadway Grill, 111 SW 12th St, Oak Grove

Missouri unemployment plateaus as national rate continues to climb

2009-11-17T03:40:00.000-06:00

Missouri's unemployment rate plateaued in Oct. as the national rate increased by four-tenths of one point.

In Missouri, the unemployment rate last month declined to 9.3 percent, down two-tenths of one point from Sept.

The Missouri Dept. of Economic Development released the new figures Monday, ahead of the full release of all states by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics this Friday.

“The October unemployment percentages suggest that Missouri’s job market continues to stabilize while demonstrating what independent economic sources have already been reporting about the health of our state’s economy,” Gov. Jay Nixon said in a prepared statement. “We are encouraged by these improving indicators and determined to move forward in creating good-paying jobs and continuing to work to secure investment in Missouri.”

Total employment also increased by 4,000 last month, with sizable gains in manufacturing and private educational and health services sectors.

Related Links:
DED Press Release

Missouri pays out $1.26 billion in federal stimulus funds to date

2009-11-16T21:20:00.001-06:00

The state of Missouri has paid out a total of $1.26 billion in federal stimulus funds since the beginning of 2009, according to state data.

The largest chunk of that funding passed through the Dept. of Labor and Industrial Relations, which has outlaid 37 percent of the state total. In all, that Dept. paid out $460 million in unemployment benefits since January paid for elusively by the federal stimulus funds.

The Dept. of Revenue paid out 22 percent, mostly in tax refunds and other stabilizations for counties.

The Dept. of Higher Education and Dept of Elementary and Secondary Education also paid out 22 percent of the state's total to-date outlays. Education funding spans from free school lunches for low income students to vocational rehabilitation and adult workforce education programs.

The remaining 19 percent of spent funds is spread among 13 other state agencies.

The state has received $1.6 billion in funds to date from the federal government since President Obama signed the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act. Missouri currently has $363 million on-hand to spend.

According to Recovery.gov, Missouri will receive an additional $1.2 billion in payments from the federal government in the future, money that has been allocated but not yet transferred from federal to state agencies.

In addition, numerous individuals have received contracts directly from federal agencies not included in these totals.

Related Links:
Map Your Taxes Stimulus Tracking
Recovery.gov

Koster allows environmental law blog to become obsolete

2009-11-16T04:56:00.002-06:00

Environmentalists expressed concerns in 2008 about then candidate Chris Koster's (D) environmental record. Now, there may be cause for concerns to resurface.

At the center of the 2008 debate was Koster's stance on controlled animal feeding operations (CAFOs), which Koster says pose no risk to human health. Environmental groups obviously disagree.

Now that Koster is the state's attorney general there may be yet another sign of his lackluster defense of the environment: the Attorney General's Environmental Law Blog, begun under his predecessor's tenure, is now defunct.

The law blog began operating in April 2008 and saw its last post on April 29, 2009, four months after Koster was sworn in.

The blog previously covered topics ranging from federal stimulus funds for the Leaking Underground Storage Tank cleanup program to announcing EPA actions in Missouri.

MPN's review of press releases issued by Koster since the beginning of Sept. further suggests environmental defense may not be a priority under Koster's leadership. Just 2 of the 24 releases in the past two-and-one-half months acknowledge investigations or cases involving violations of state and federal environmental protection laws -- and both were for federal Clean Water Act violations unearthed by state Dept. of Natural Resources investigators.

The majority of the press releases issued by Koster's office focus on consumer issues such as telemarketers and consumer fraud.

Koster announced John "Jack" McManus as the chief counsel for the Agriculture and Environment Division of the Attorney General's office earlier this year. McManus previously served as an Assistant State Attorney General.

Related Links:
AGO Environmental Law Blog

Feeling under the weather? Chances of catching flu decrease in Missouri

2009-11-15T04:19:00.001-06:00

Missouri flu cases are on the decline according to data from Google's FluTrends report.

Google scholars developed a model that links flu queries from their search engine to actual influenza incidence rates.

In Missouri, and nationally, Google predicts flu symptoms peaked in mid-Oct. and are on the decline, at least for now.

The Oct. spike was reportedly due mostly to the outbreak of H1N1 -- and that's why there were lower intensities reported in Florida where the high number of retirees weren't impacted as much, since H1N1 targets the younger crowd.

Another spike may be reported at the beginning of 2010, similar to 2008 when flu intensity peaked in Feb.

So how accurate is Google's model? The results of a study Google's researchers published in Nature shows the results very closely align with actual data collected by the Centers for Disease Control (R^2>0.9).

Related Links:
Google FluTrends
FluTrend Method in Nature

Democrats hammer Hoskins for payment of back taxes

2009-11-14T03:01:00.004-06:00

One Republican state representative in a targeted Missouri House district is learning the consequences of not paying taxes, and definitely the hard way.

Rep. Denny Hoskins (R-121) announced earlier this week he owed nearly $20,000 to the Johnson County collector in back taxes for a business he co-owns. On Thursday, Hoskins declared he had paid the amount in full. That was after issuing a statement saying he was on a payment plan.

The House Democratic Campaign Committee issued a statement Friday morning condemning Hoskins' conflicting statements that he didn't have the funds to pay off the taxes and fees and that he was on an allegedly non-existent payment plan with the county. Here's the Democrats' statement:

The $20,000 Question: Questions Surround Hoskins Payment

After being caught red handed Hoskins Couldn’t Give a Deadline, Less Than 24 Hours Later He Cuts a $20,000 Check?

Jefferson City, MO—According to media reports, yesterday just before the collector’s office closed, State Rep. Denny Hoskins turned in a $20,317.89 check, less than 24 hours after being caught delinquent on his taxes. In a statement after being caught red handed Hoskins stated he didn’t have the money “due to the recession” and stated he was on a “tax installment plan” that never actually existed and is not available for delinquent amounts owed under Johnson County statute.

Today questions surround Representative Hoskins, who until yesterday refused to pay over $20,000 in taxes he was legally required to pay 11 months earlier.

“Yesterday morning Hoskins didn’t have enough money to pay a delinquent $500 invoice let alone the other $20,000 he owed; even going so far as to claim he was on a fake “tax installment plan” that isn’t even allowed by law. However by yesterday afternoon, he’s cutting a $20,000 check? Where did the money come from? Who did he get it from and were special favors requested in the terms of this loan?” asked Chris Moreno, Executive Director of the Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.

According to documents verified by media outlets, Denny Hoskins was given 5 separate invoices he was delinquent on since Dec. 31, 2008. Those invoices ranged from $500 to $9,637, all of which Hoskins knew about and stated he could not pay 24 hours ago. Instead, Hoskins tried to hide that he was on a “tax installment plan” when Johnson County doesn’t permit such plans for delinquent taxes. However, according to the Collector’s office, Hoskins could have paid any of those invoices in full, but chose not to.

“If he had it all along, why did he shortchange Johnson County for an entire year? Hoskins is on record being extremely dishonest throughout this process. The citizens deserve to finally have honest answers to these questions,” said Moreno.

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