Mariner Melee

Mariner Melee Has Moved

2008-12-01T20:57:00.001-08:00

You can now find me at

mvn.com/marinermelee

Check it out!

Ibanez offered Arb.

2008-12-01T13:23:00.000-08:00

Oh Thank You Jack.

Now if Ibanez accepts, its not a big deal we get him for relatively cheap for a year and if he declines we have a great chance of grabbing two draft picks from the team he signs with.

Great news.

Minor League Goal Sheets.

2008-12-01T11:44:00.000-08:00

The Mariners have needed to implement a system like this for years. Our top prospects need to be given a sheet of goals that they must complete by the end of the season in order to advance within the organization. By giving our them these lists you let them know in writing exactly what you expect from them and what you expect them to improve on. Most of our top prospects all seem to have some big flaws in their games and its becoming worrisome. Organizations that have to build their teams from the farm (A's, Diamondbacks, Twins) have systems like this and have great success in having farm players make an immediate impact.

Here are some examples.

Greg Halman 2009 Goals

Post a 9% or higher Walk Rate

Alternative Goal: Walk 35 or more times

Post a 25% or less Strike out Rate

Alternative Goal: Strike out less than 120 times

Post an On Base Percentage .050 points higher than your Batting Average
Create 75 or more runs
Steal 20 or more bases
Ground into less than 20 double plays
Maintain or Improve 2008 Slugging Percentage.

Carlos Triunfel 2009 Goals

Post a 9% or Higher Walk Rate
Create 70 or more Runs
Increase upon 2008 Slugging Percentage by .050
Steal 25 or more bases
Post an On Base Percentage .050 pointer higher than Batting Average
Ground into less than 15 Double Plays

Etc.

You get the point. All of our top prospects, not named Dennis Raben, have serious issues with walking. Greg Hunter could have been part of the problem, thus his demotion. Goal Sheets like this (more in depth) need to be part of our minor league system. Our prospects would need to come close or complete the goals given to them in order to advance through the system.

Alot of these goals would push Halman and Triunfel into uncharted waters. Neither of them knows what it is to walk more than 6% of the time. Asking Halman to not strike out but 20% of the time is going to extremely hard for him. But these are things they have to learn. We don't want them to make it to the Major Leagues and still have glaring problems.

Filling the Gaps

2008-11-28T05:55:00.000-08:00

Bench, and DH

Bench

The Mariners bench going into next year is iffy at best. Hulett will probably land himself a role as a infielder and Reed may land himself a spot as a 4th outfielder. Morse will probably find himself out of luck, and Rob Johnson is likely to see another year in AAA. So how upgrade the bench? One option is Mike Hessman, a power hitting 30 year old currently in the Tigers organization. Hessman has played 1B, 3B, SS RF, and LF throughout his college and minor league career but at the Big league level Hessman would probably be limited to infield duties and likely never see the outfield. Hessman would be a possible power bat off the bench, something Bloomquist, Cairo and Reed cannot claim to be. The Mariners sorely need a bat like this. Hessman could pinch hit in late innings or give a everyday player a break, without costing the team power, and Detriot has him cheap, and available. Hessman last year in the minor leagues hit .271/ .365/ .602 and 34 Home Runs.

Next there is Tim Raines Jr. Raines had somewhat of a minor league breakout season last year with a .311/ .435/ .530 line. Raines did benefit from a some what high BABIP, but wouldn't necessarily be on the bench for his bat. Raines would be more of a speed asset. Raines stole 28 bases last year, 21 in 2007 and 30 in 2006. Raines would offer a decent bat off the bench, with the legs to get himself into scoring position. Raines can play any outfield position.

Hulett, Reed and Morse could battle it out for the other open bench spot, and I imagine the only two catchers on the roster will be Johjima and Clement.

Honorable Mentions: Greg Norton, Reggie Abercombie

Designated Hitter

Jason Kubel is probably one of the most underrated player on the Twins baseball team. Kubel had one of the best seasons of his career last year, which included 28 AB's against Seattle and a .607/ .621/ 1.071 clip. Small sample size? Of course, but Kubel's bat is built for SafeCo Field and could be an excellent option to plug up an outfield spot or the DH. Kubel over all last year put in a .272/ .335/ .471 line, with an average BABIP (.301) and good LD% at 19%. Kubel is my number one trade candidate for the Mariners this offseason. He hits for power, gets on base, fits into our plans, and is still young. Kubel might not be available, but if the Mariners are looking to deal Beltre and the Twins are still interested, Kubel should be included in the deal.

Next of course is Milton Bradley. I will get the negative out of the way first. Milton Bradley is not going to put up a .321/ .436/ .563 line, without having half his games in Arlington hitting behind Josh Hamilton, it just isn't going to happen. At home he posted .358/ .466/ .679 in 129 at bats. Out side of luxurious baseball launching pads those numbers are difficult to repeat. Not to mention Bradley's 24% LD%, .396 BABIP and his 21% HR to FB rate are not going to be repeated. But put aside the fact that he isn't going to put up another monster year, Bradley is a great hitter who has great on base skills, and power to go with. Bradley is looking for a two year deal and is tired of the one year contracts. If the Mariners are willing to give him a multiple year contract, they could become the leader in gaining his services. Bradley could easily put up a .300/ .380/ .490 line for the Mariners with a double digits in Home Runs.

Honorable Mentions: Jason Giambi, Frank Thomas

Coming Soon: Short Stop, and Third base

Happy Thanksgiving

2008-11-27T09:41:00.000-08:00

Engorge yourself on Turkey, Green Bean Casserole and Pumpkin Pie.

Maybe sit down and watch the Seahawks, or the Titans. Its a day off with family, enjoy yourself.

Can Jim Street be next?

2008-11-24T11:22:00.000-08:00

Since Jack Zduriencik took over, he has already fired or demoted several names including Bob Fontaine, Benny Looper, Greg Hunter, and Jim Riggleman. My question is why can't Jim Street be next?

Obviously I know that Gmz has no control over mlb.com employees, it's more of a rhetorical question. I read Jim Street's mailbag today and I have to say, that he continues his fine tradition of terrible journalism and un-researched opinion.

Here are some highlights of Jim Streets most recent mailbag.

Q: I wish nothing but the best for Yuniesky Betancourt, but I am tired of his constant mental lapses and lack of plate discipline. What about trading him for some outfield help and moving Mike Morse back to short? Morse has a great bat, is a very serviceable shortstop and plays outfield like he's got stage fright. It seems like the humane thing to do would be to give Yuni a change of scenery, and let Morse play where he's more comfortable.

A: While Betancourt does have occasional mental lapses -- as do most players -- and lacks plate discipline, he is the best-fielding shortstop the Mariners have had since Omar Vizquel in the early and mid-1990s. It would weaken the team by trading him.

Yuni is just 25 years old and is learning the job at the Major League level. He probably always will be an aggressive hitter, but I would rather have him on my team than someone with less range in the field who walks a lot.

Furthermore, Morse has not played shortstop in several years, and would, in my opinion, help the team a lot more at first base.

...What!? Betacnourt the best defender since Omar Vizquel? Can I just issue a nationwide ban on that comparision from now on? From 2006 - 2008 Yunieski Betancourt has been -32 on the Plus/Minus system. Know what that means Mr. Street? Take away Betancourt and insert a average SS and that average SS would get to 32 more balls than Yunieski Betacnourt got to. Betancourt is also not 25 he is 26 and nearly 27. I haven't even got to Betancourt at the plate.

The fact is this is just poor journalism and poor research on Streets part. Street still believes Betacnourt is a good defender and it just hasn't been true since 2005. Street believes that Betacnourt is just a young aggressive hitter. But Betancourt posted the worst walking percentage (3%) in baseball last year. Betancourt's WPA is -2.76, and his BW sits around -30.

Jim Street also had this to say.

...and I'm not sure what value there would be in signing Vizquel. He is a Hall of Fame shortstop in my book, but Betancourt is much younger and more productive on offense.

The Mariners are moving foward, so do us a favor Jim and retire, you're about to be left behind.

Filling the Gaps

2008-11-22T12:40:00.001-08:00

The Mariners have many problems they have to fix going into the 2009 season and they are going to have to decide if they want a stop gap player or a player who can become a fixture at his possition.

1st base Options

Eric Hinske and Dallas McPherson top my list. Hinske is a role player on most teams but on a rebuilding Mariner club, he has alot to offer. Hinske posted a .266 GPA last year, while getting on base fairly well and providing the Rays with a bit of power (.465 SLG%). Hinske also suffered from a bit of a low BABIP which can be expected to return to normal in 2009.

McPherson doesn't have any major league data to go off of, but he destroyed the minor leagues last year. Dallas hit 42 home runs and slugged .618. He still strikes out way to much, and some believe he is just a AAAA player. But with a team that probably isn't going to compete, the risk is worth it. Both Hinske and McPherson would serve as stop gaps for Dennis Raben.

Rumors have already sprouted about revisiting the Butler for Betancourt trade. In all likelihood we probably wouldn't be able to get Bulter for just Betancourt, the Mariners should try and hash out a deal for him anyways. Bulter is still very young and is expected to have a break out season next year. Plus the Royals are said to be offering him for cheap, and they need to get rid of at least one of the 1B/DH types. The Mariners could really use Bulter. Don't let last seasons numbers fool you, Bulter is a great option at 1B. If the Royals are unwilling to part with Bulter, the Mariners should attempt Kila Ka'aihue instead.

Then there is Micah Hoffpauir currently blocked in the Cubs organization by Derek Lee, and with no DH in the NL, Micah might be movable. Micah has torn apart AAA pitching, slugging .752 last year. Micah post a great minor league GPA of .367 last year, while hitting 25 HR's and creating 87 runs. Micah might need time to adjust to the Major leagues, but would be considered a long term option at 1B or DH.

Brad Nelson is largely endorsed by USSM and Bleeding Blue and Teal, and rightfully so. Nelson is currently killing the Dominican Winter league .306/ .375/ .750 line. Nelson also enjoyed his time during the regular minor league season (.286/ .380/. 480) hitting 18 home runs and 36 doubles. Nelson if blocked in the Brewers organization by Prince Fielder and wouldn't cost the Mariners much of anything. The great thing about Nelson is that he walks nearly as much and he strikes out. The Mariners don't have many prospects in their system that can say the same thing.

According to Prospect Insider (comment 20) the Mariners have been in talks with the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks. The Mariners are mostly likely in talks with the Cardinals about Chris Duncan. Duncan has been goofing around in the outfield for a few seasons now because Albert Puljos blocks first base. But Duncan is horrible out there and needs to move back to first. Oh what do you know the Mariners have first base open. Duncan is good for about .260/ .350/ .460

Honarable Mentions: Jason Giambi, Jeff Clement

Outfield Options

Matt Kemp. Whats not to like. You get speed, power, and on base skills. So whats the problem? He isn't going to be cheap, and the Dodgers seem to keep changing their mind on if hey want to trade him or not. If Matt Kemp is available, the Mariners should be getting their foot in the door. Kemp created 95 runs last year, though he was rather lucky with his BABIP, at .363. Kemp also happens to be a good defender, something the Mariners had a hard time finding last year. Reed is was ok in Center, as was Ichiro, and Wlad was Terrible, but Kemp is actually good.

Chris Young. As I mentioned above, the Mariners have been talking to the Diamondback about trade possibilities. The Diamondbacks are probably talking about their second base void while the Mariners could be asking about Chris Young. Young is great option who brings along great defense and a swing with a few holes in it. But Zduriencik is a man who values defense and young is good out their. Even with Young's tendency to strike out a lot, he still takes a few walks (62) only Raul Ibanez took more as a Mariner last year. Young isn't great with his on base skills, but he still creates runs (89), he can still drive the ball (19% LD%), and he hits for power well (.443 SLG% and .195 ISO). Young has plenty of issues with plate discipline, but he would be a good piece to have for a few years untill Halman or Saunders are ready.

Honerable Mentions: Mike Cameron, Jim Edmonds, Jeremy Hermida.

Coming Soon: DH, 3rd Base, Bench, 2nd Base, Short Stop

Dayan Viciedo White Sock

2008-11-20T15:56:00.001-08:00

I suggested earlier that the Mariners take a look into Dayan Viciedo, a talented Cuban free agent, for their 1st base vacancy.

Dayan signed with the White Sox today, taking him off the free agent market. Dayan currently plays 3rd base, and might stick it at the hot corner for a while, considering the Sox don't intend to re-sign Crede. Dayan profiles more as a first basemen though, due to his lackluster defense and body conerns.

As it turns out the deal is worth 11 million dollars, not exactly making him a bargain. The White Sox took a large risk in giving him a major league deal, though they have been rewarded to a certain level with Ramirez and Contreras. Either way, it will be interesting to see how it pans out for the Sox. 11 million is alot of money to give to a player that some scouts believe has movtivation and weight issues.

I suggested the Mariners, go after Viciedo, but not for 11 million dollars.

Eric O’Flaherty to the Braves

2008-11-20T15:49:00.000-08:00

Eric O’Flaherty has been claimed off waivers by the Atlanta braves today.

No big deal, just some minor league cleansing of spare parts. Eric O had a terrible 2008 season, giving up 15 earned runs in 6.7 innings. It was brutal watching him throw slider after slider early in the year.

He still probably has a future as a lefty specialist somewhere, but its obviously not going to happen in Seattle.

Wakamatsu Final

2008-11-19T11:46:00.000-08:00

Link
Introduced at 1:30.

Wakamatsu

2008-11-18T10:13:00.000-08:00

I'm behind the rest of the blog-o-sphere on this one, but Don Wakamatsu is going to be the next Mariner manager according to King 5 News.

Alright. I Like Wakamatsu, he is at least familiar with out division. But like I said, the manager doesn't really matter. As long as he doesn't put John Mclaren-esque line-ups on the field, and use the bullpen like Mclaren did, then its fine.

Now Jack, let see what you can do with a Major League roster.

Its final. Wakamatsu is your man.

Seattle Mariners Department of Baseball Research.

2008-11-15T11:15:00.000-08:00

This is the most exciting piece of news I have heard in the past 5 years. The Seattle Mariners are finally going to modernize with the rest of baseball's successful organizations. The Mariners are opening a SABR Department, led by Seattle's newest assistant GM Tony Blengino.

I did laps around my living room. I have been waiting for this moment for a long time. The Seattle Mariners...SABRheads. This means that the Mariners are actually going to know exactly why a player had the kind of year they had. If they player had a good year the Mariners are going to look into how much luck went into that year, and they are going to look at how that player would do in a neutral park, and with a average defense. If a player has a bad to average year, the Mariners will know why. Was it bad luck, or bad defense? Was he swinging at more pitches out of the zone than he usually does? Or did all things stay the same and the player is just declining? The Mariners are finally going to know these things. Opening up bargain possibilities and avoiding disaster signings.

For instance. Player A had a .305 Average and hit 22 Home Runs. Player A is demanding 10 million annually. But Player A only posted a .315 On Base Percentage and was succeeding on a very high Batting Average on Balls in Play at .380. Player A created 80 runs. Player A walked only 7% of the time and swung at balls out of the zone 35% of the time. Player A strikes out 25% of the time.

But Player B posted a .250 Average and hit 15 Home Runs. Player B posted a .360 OBP and had a slightly bellow average BABIP at .270. Player B walks 15% of the time and Strikes out 20% of the time. Player B only swings at pitches out of the zone 20% of the time. Player B created 75 runs and is only asking 5 million annually.

Which player is more valuable to your team?

The old Seattle Mariners would have picked player A, but that is no longer going to be the case. Because they are now going to look deeper into a player. Average, RBI, W-L Record and ERA will no longer be the biggest factors when it comes to choosing what talent to chase. Instead they will know what those numbers hide. They would have known that Jarrod Washburn's shiny 3.20 ERA, was a result of excellent defense, alot of runners stranded on base and some good luck.

I could not be any more excited right now.

Manager could be named Sunday

2008-11-14T21:02:00.000-08:00

Link

Finally huh?
I can't wait until this is over. Not because I am excited to see what guy is going to manage this team, and not because I have a particular attachment to the candidate I think will win. I just want this to be over so I can see what Zduriencik has in store for the 2009 roster.
The manger is important for properly using the talent provided, but I am more interested in what talent the new manager will get to use.

Hale wrong. Wakamatsu Right.

2008-11-12T15:49:00.000-08:00

Chip Hale

"Bedard getting hurt was tough. To me they made a great trade, it's sort of like with the Diamondbacks. and we get Danny Haren. We gave up a lot to get him. But he's a legitimate No. 1 pitcher in the major leagues and we put him with Brandon Webb. It was supposed to be the same deal putting (Bedard) with Felix Hernandez. But (Bedard) gets hurt and things don't go right."

"I don't know the ins and outs of every problem, but I will tell you that this will be a place that has enough talent to win. The pitching and defense are there when you have Betancourt at shortstop and Beltre at third and Ichiro is one of the best players in baseball, I think it's a good situation."

Link

Don Wakamatsu

"Anyone can come in here and say you're going to win right away, but you have to be realistic to the situation," Wakamatsu said. "There's still a lot of work to be done this winter."

"I think it's more important that we're on the same page in belief system. Where I think we can look at a club and have the right plan of action for it.''

Link1 Link2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hale's comments should remove him from consideration right away, and maybe they have. Old philosophies and utter ignorance to farm crippling trades and bad defenders should not be the qualities of a man who wants to run this team. The Bedard trade was never a good trade, the pitching was never there, the defense was never there, and Betancourt should never be used in the same sentence as Beltre and Ichiro when talking about talent.

Don Wakamatsu on the other hand, said some very intelligent things. He isn't lying to himself or the fans, he knows the next couple of years could be a big rebuilding project and recognizes that it could get rough. He recognizes that the entire organization needs to be on the same page, thinking in the same mindset. I didn't hear much else from Don, but two of his sentences eclipse an entire paragraph by Hale.

Brad Mills, Joey Cora, and Randy Ready have also interviewed, leaving only DeMarlo Hale, and Jose Oquendo left to interview. Zduriencik stated that he could hold secondary interviews for the finalist, I doubt you'll see Chip Hale on that list.

Vote for Dave

2008-11-10T14:42:00.000-08:00

Dave Cameron, one of the blog writers of USS Mariner is currently in the running for a $10,000 dollar blogging scholarship. Dave has been one of the best resources when it comes to Mariner information and insight. Dave deserves the scholarship. USSM is a hobby, a side project, and yet it is so complete and professional. If you don't already visit it everyday, you should.

Please, go read and vote.

Manger Interview List leaked

2008-11-10T12:11:00.000-08:00

Link1 Link2

Names mentioned...

Joey Cora (White Sox)
Chip Hale (Diamondbacks)
DeMarlo Hale (Red Sox)
Jose Oquendo (Cardinals)
Randy Ready (AAA Portland)
Don Wakamtsu (Athletics)
Brad Mills (Red Sox)

Ned Yost, Bobby Valentine, and Jim Riggleman are not on the list and as I posted ealier, neither is Randolph. It doesn't really matter who manages this team, as long as they can put a halfway decent line-up on the field and manage the bullpen correctly, then I don't care who they pick. A added bonus would be respect from the players, but alot of the problems that came up last year could have been avoided if the Mariners had been winning.

I want this managerial search to be over, I want to see what Jack is going to do with the team. The sooner the better.

Dayan Viciedo

2008-11-10T09:36:00.000-08:00

Dayan Viciedo has successfully defected from Cuba, which could make him available to all 30 major league baseball teams. But because of Major league draft rules, Viciedo may be forced to enter the 2008 draft instead of becoming a undrafted free agent. Personally I hope he does enter the draft, for obvious reasons.

Viciedo is just 19 years old and has been referred to as the Babe Ruth of Cuba, but probably more due to his shape and size more than anything else. Scouts says Viciedo has a excellent power and bat, but worry about his body and defense. He plays 3B right now but because of his body concerns and lackluster defense at 3B, he is probably better suited for 1B or DH on a major league club.

If Viciedo does become a free agent the White Sox do already have the lead according to wikipedia.
As you can see, it would favor the Mariner much more for Viciedo to enter the draft.

Sweet Lou

2008-11-09T10:23:00.000-08:00

I've been so bored with the complete lack of Mariner news lately that I have been scouring the net for just about anything Mariner related. Well, I came across this wonderful article by Jim Caple, about Lou Piniella.

Lou truly has changed the entire ejection game, though in recent years the only real tantrums we see are down in the minor leagues. I want to see something like this next year, a real ejection. Kick dirt, toss bases, incorporate the hand grenade rosin bag, I don't care. Show the fans some passion, get fiery, get angry. Don't like a call? Well put on a show, umpires have itchy trigger fingers in todays game as it is, so get your money's worth. After all, we watch to be entertained.

The Fans love this kind of thing, and we really have been deprived of it the last few years. Lets see a true tantrum, a fiery ejection, something to talk about in 2009. We'll be waiting.

News! News!

2008-11-08T10:54:00.000-08:00

Literally 2 seconds after I post the Bored out of my Skull post, news appears.

Willie Randolph has been hired as the Brewers bench coach, probably removing him from the Mariners list of possible GM candidates. It's good news. The Mariners went through so much clubhouse turmoil last year and the last thing they needed was a stiff manager who didn't allow music in the clubhouse and probably didn't have the best respect from the players. The Mariners didn't need a personality like that running the clubhouse.

The supposed Manager list is now composed of

Bobby Valentine
Brad Mills
John Farrell
Ned Yost
Joey Cora
Lloyd Mclendon
Art Howie
Jim Riggleman

As I said earlier Valentine and Mills are my top choices. But to be honest, as long as he can put together a working line-up and work the bullpen properly...I don't care who they hire.

Its been so slow.

2008-11-08T10:49:00.000-08:00

No news is good news? I don't know. Really I am just bored. I would love to see this team hire a new manager (I support Bobby Valentine and Brad Mills), and get on with roster construction, which I am really interested in seeing what Gmz will do.

Oh well, we will see what happens here in the next few weeks, Zduriencik says he wants to have a manager before the winter meetings.

Congratulations to to Ichiro and Beltre.

2008-11-06T16:15:00.000-08:00

Ichiro receives his 8th straight Gold glove while Beltre reels in his second. Beltre as recently awarded the honor of best defensive third basemen by the fielding bible, Edging out Evan Longoria by 36 points.

Congrats to you both.

I would like to point out...

2008-11-06T13:09:00.000-08:00

..that Prospect Insider is back.

Glad to have you back Mr. Churchill.

Latest Rumor crap.

2008-11-05T21:30:00.000-08:00

Well here is the latest.

One source mentioned a potential three-way deal that would send outfielder Hideki Matsui from the New York Yankees to the Seattle Mariners for a pitching prospect, perhaps Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Yankees would package the prospect with second baseman Robinson Cano and another young player to the Rockies for Holliday.

This makes no sense. The Mariners can find younger, healthier DH's on the market (Erik Hinske, Billy Butler) and even within the organization (Jeff Clement), so why would the Zduriencik deal a young pitcher away for a old, injuired DH / Left Fielder? It makes no sense. I don't know where this rumor is coming from, but I doubt it has credibility.

Betancourt for Bulter

2008-11-05T16:43:00.000-08:00

It's pure speculation. It was a option in 2007 and Bavasi, not recognizing what a good deal looks are said no. The Royals were one of the worst teams in baseball last year when it comes to OBP, and yet they are supposedly looking into Betancourt. Free hacking, never seen a pitch he didn't like Betancourt?

I seriously doubt it.

The Royals may have a surplus of first basemen but that doesn't mean they are going to just give away one of their better ones for Yunieski Betancourt. But hey, I hope I'm wrong.

I would love to have Butler on this team. He's miles better than LaHair and posted only mediocre numbers last year. On a rebuilding team, a still developing Bulter is a perfect fit. This trade is pure speculation and has little to no truth to it, but I sure hope that changes.

Mike Wilson added to the 40-Man Roster

2008-11-04T18:32:00.000-08:00

"That's tremendous power and this organization is a little power-shy,"

-Jack Zduriencik

Looks like they are finally going push this guy. He is somewhat of a power threat, but he has horrible strike out rates...horrible. Mike Wilson struck out 28% of the time last year while only walking 13% of the time and at the age of 25 he isn't likely to learn how to make consistant contact. But seeing how the Mariners don't look to be a contender next year, there is no harm having him on the 40 man. You don't want to loose him to the rule 5 draft, which would have happened had they left him off.

Wilson may have extreme strike out rates, but that doesn't mean he can't be a usefull platoon player. He could easily see some at bats on the major league team in 2009, assuming the team does not contend. The Mariners should know by the trading dead line, if they can use Wilson in 2009.