Net Oil Exports

Net Oil Exports - July 2008 Update

2008-07-21T18:14:00.006-04:00

Net Oil Exports - July 2008 Update. Top 20 Exporters (93% of total exports).

Click on following link to download updated Excel spreadsheet
http://www.savefile.com/files/1680727

Click on following link to download updated Excel spreadsheet(420 kb):
http://www.savefile.com/files/1680727
scroll down to bottom of linked page and hit orange button on right and
then hit second prompt if download doesn't start immediately

[insert price chart here]

chart, crude oil, crude oil exports, graph, net oil exports, net petroleum exports, oil exports

Update Update

2008-07-20T09:19:00.003-04:00

OK, the new spreadsheet with numbers through June is almost done and I'll be uploading it tomorrow.

I just noticed a comment I hadn't answered.

Regarding my sources:
I use mainly EIA monthly data for production.
BP Statistical review for consumption for 14 countries.
EIA data for consunption for 4 countries.
For Mexican production I use Pemex monthly releases.
For the latest two months production I use estimates, news reports, IEA, and Platts.

-MFP

Oil Dollars

2008-07-08T16:06:00.004-04:00

This was made by simply multiplying the average monthly price of WTI by the barrels per day of Crude and Condensate produced in that month.

Oil Consumption Changes 2005 - 2007

2008-06-14T18:13:00.003-04:00

The BP 2008 Annual Statistical Review has been released. These are the consumption numbers. I used the difference over the past two year, rather than one year. I'll comment some more on the numbers soon building up to an export update around the 30th.

These are the Top Ten Gainers and Top Ten Losers by Barrels per Day. Besides China and Saudi, which are obvious points of interest, Germany and Singapore must be looked at.

Matt Simmons responds to Henry Blodget

2008-06-08T21:17:00.006-04:00

I haven't heard anything from Matt Simmons in a while, so I was quite surprised when reading an entry on Henry Blodget's new finance blog to see that his was the first response. Also amusing that the subject was Arun Murti (weren't we just talking about those two last week?)

Here's his response:

You really should research your terminology before you drop it about in your articles.

"On the supply side, we don't subscribe to the peak-oil view. We don't think the world has run out of oil."

Definition of Peak Oil:

"Peak oil, as part of the fossil fuel depletion, is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum production is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline."
source - wikipedia.org

Peak Oil is about the "Peak" in oil production... we sir have peaked, we did so in 2006. We are in what's called an undulating plateau and will soon enter a irreversible decline in oil production.

We will NEVER run out of oil, we simply will run out of CHEAP oil... easy to find and produce oil... I hope this sinks in clearly.

We discovered oil, found large deposits of oil and we produced those first, they were the easiest to get at. Most of those fields are in decline now, we're now going after the more difficult, smaller deposits...

Please go to www.theoildrum.com and do a bit of reading.

Kind Regards,
M. Simmons

Simmons response

Blog home: ClusterStock

Update Information for June

2008-06-08T11:43:00.000-04:00

I had gotten into a regular habit of posting an update around the middle of each month. I plan to continue this. However, in June I won't be posting an update until the end of the month. The reason for this is the release in June of BP's Annual Statistical analysis. I use their consumption numbers and my projected consumption numbers are based on those numbers as well. These will all need to be revised for the last 18 (possibly 30) months. The total impact of the revisions should not be great, but I want to have the time to double-check the numbers for accuracy.

No Calls for OPEC Meeting

2008-06-08T11:38:00.002-04:00

Oil supply adequate, no calls for OPEC meet
June 8th, 2008
Reuters

Global oil supplies are adequate and there are no moves within OPEC to hold an emergency meeting to discuss record oil prices, Libya's top oil official said on Sunday.

"I think there is enough oil in the market, I did not hear anybody calling for a meeting," Shokri Ghanem, head of Libya's National Oil Corporation, told Reuters in a telephone interview.

U.S. oil surged nearly 9 percent to a record above $139 a barrel on Friday. Ghanem said he expected the price to continue rising.

"I think it will go higher," said Ghanem, who is also head of Libya's OPEC delegation. "That is a trend that will continue for some time."

Oil prices were rising due to reasons other than fundamentals such as speculation and concern over political tension in the Middle East, he said.

Consuming countries have called for more supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to help ease high prices, but OPEC officials blame factors beyond their control for oil's rally.

OPEC, supplier of more than a third of the world's oil, was next scheduled to meet on September 9 to discuss oil policy.

Oil was becoming more difficult and costly to produce, and global supplies were nearing their peak, Ghanem said.

"The easy, cheap oil is over, peak oil is looming," Ghanem said.

Ghanem said last year that it may not be possible to boost global supply beyond 100 million barrels, from about 87 million bpd now.

OPEC's Oil Production Rose 300,000 bpd in May

2008-06-04T19:21:00.003-04:00

OPEC's Oil Production Rose 0.9% in May, Survey Shows
By Diane Munro and Mark Shenk
June 4 (Bloomberg)

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased oil production 0.9 percent in May as Iraqi output climbed to a pre-war high, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

OPEC pumped an average 32.28 million barrels a day last month, up 300,000 barrels from April, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. April output was revised down by 125,000 barrels a day. Production by the 12 members with quotas, all except Iraq, rose 200,000 barrels to 29.79 million barrels a day.

Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached a record $135.09 a barrel on May 22 and closed at $122.30 a barrel today. Prices are up 85 percent from a year ago.

Iraqi production increased 100,000 barrels to an average 2.49 million barrels a day last month, the highest since October 2002. Output in the Persian Gulf nation has been curbed since the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

Iraqi Exports

Iraq exported an average 2.01 million barrels of oil a day in May, up 100,000 barrels from the previous month and the highest since before the invasion, the survey showed.

Exports from Iraq's two Persian Gulf ports, Basrah and Khor al Amaya, averaged 1.56 million barrels a day in May, up 100,000 barrels from the prior month. The increase followed repairs to infrastructure damaged by military action during March in the Basrah oil-producing region.

Oil exports from Iraq's northern fields to Turkey's Ceyhan export terminal on the Mediterranean Sea were unchanged at 442,000 barrels a day in May. April exports from Ceyhan were revised 22,000 barrels a day higher. Iraq exported about 10,000 barrels a day overland to Syria.

Nigerian production rose 50,000 barrels to an average 1.9 million barrels a day last month. April's output was the lowest since 1999. Security concerns and militant attacks on oil infrastructure in the country's Niger Delta region hampered repair work last month.

Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Nigerian oil unit gradually restored output from the Qua Iboe, Erha, Yoho and Oso fields over the month following a strike by the Petroleum & Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, or Pengassan, which represents white-collar workers. The strike ended on May 1.

Saudi Pledge

Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer and the world's top oil exporter, raised production by 130,000 barrels to an average 9.25 million barrels a day in May. It was the biggest increase among OPEC members last month.

``Saudi Arabia probably made the big increase for political reasons, while Iraq and Nigeria had gains due to improved security,'' said Rick Mueller, director of oil practice at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on May 16 that the kingdom had started ramping up production on May 10 in response to stronger demand from customers. He said output would reach 9.45 million barrels a day in June. The Saudi announcement followed a meeting that day in Riyadh between President George W. Bush and King Abdullah.

``The Saudis are either just taking advantage of the high prices or are responding to political pressure and trying to purge some of the speculation that's in the market,'' Mueller said. ``They are following through with the promise made during George W. Bush's visit.''

The planned increase in June output won't be affected by delays to the new Khursaniyah field. The field will eventually pump 500,000 barrels a day, Saudi Aramco said. The state-owned company will increase capacity by a further 250,000 barrels a day by the end of the year because of expansion of the Shaybah field.

Output Declines

Iran, the second-biggest OPEC producer, cut output last month because of a lack of interest in its high-sulfur, heavy oil grades. The country pumped an average 3.82 million barrels a day in May, down 60,000 barrels a day from April. Iran has at least 14 very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, floating near Kharg Island, a loading facility.

Libyan oil production declined 35,000 barrels a day to 1.735 million barrels a day in May because of operational problems at al-Jurf offshore oil field, which is operated by Total SA. A technical problem led to 45,000 barrels a day of production being shut-in beginning on April 24.

WSJ article on Oil Exporters

2008-06-02T02:59:00.002-04:00

Oil Exporters Are Unable To Keep Up With Demand
Domestic Needs, Sluggish Investment Crimp Shipments

By Neil King Jr. and Spencer Schwartz
May 29, 2008
Wall Street Journal

The world’s top oil producers are proving unable to put more barrels on thirsty world markets despite sky-high prices, a shift that defies traditional market logic and looks set to continue.

Fresh data from the U.S. Department of Energy show the amount of petroleum products shipped by the world’s top oil exporters fell 2.5% last year, despite a 57% increase in prices, a trend that appears to be holding true this year as well.

There are several reasons behind the net-export decline. Soaring profits from high-price crude have fueled a boom in oil demand in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East, leaving less oil for export. At the same time, aging fields and sluggish investments have caused exports to drop significantly in Mexico, Norway and, most recently, Russia. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also cut production early last year and didn’t move to boost supplies again until last fall.

In all, according to the Energy Department figures, net exports by the world’s top 15 suppliers, which account for 45% of all production, fell by nearly a million barrels to 38.7 million barrels a day last year. The drop would have been steeper if not for heightened output in less-developed countries such as Angola and Libya, whose economies have yet to become big energy consumers.

For all the attention paid to China’s increasing energy thirst, rising energy demand in the Middle East may pose the greater challenge. Last year, the region’s six largest petroleum exporters — Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar — curbed their output by 544,000 barrels a day. At the same time, their domestic demand increased by 318,000 barrels a day, leading to a loss in net exports of 862,000 barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Demand in the Middle East is a major factor right now, said Adam Robinson, an oil analyst at Lehman Brothers in New York. Mr. Robinson predicts the region will constitute more than 40% of increased demand next year.

Saudi Arabia in particular has become a major energy consumer as the country pushes to put its oil riches to greater use. The kingdom is in the middle of a major investment campaign to become a world player in petrochemicals, aluminum and fertilizers, all of which will require huge amounts of oil and natural gas.

Since 2004, Saudi oil consumption has increased nearly 23%, to 2.3 million barrels a day last year. Jeffrey Brown, a Dallas-based petroleum geologist who studies net export numbers, said that at its current growth rate, Saudi Arabia could be consuming 4.6 million barrels a day by 2020.

That would cut significantly into Saudi exports even as the world looks to its largest oil supplier to help manage rising demand. Saudi Arabia has nearly a quarter of the world’s proven reserves and supplies around 12% of the 86 million barrels a day that the world now consumes.

One reason Middle Eastern nations are using more oil is a shortage of natural gas, said Bill Farren-Price, director of energy at Medley Global Advisors. This is particularly troublesome during the summer, when governments scramble to keep the lights on and air conditioners cranking.

Some producers, such as the U.A.E., are easing back at times on the crucial industry practice of injecting natural gas into crude oil fields, which is done to boost reservoir pressure and increase crude recovery rates. Halting the injections ends up undercutting oil production, further reducing exports.

As top exporters hit trouble, historically marginal players such as Brazil and Kazakhstan are likely to play a greater role. Three of the four non-OPEC players among the top 15 oil exporters — Russia, Norway and Mexico — are reporting declines in production this year. Kazakhstan is showing slight net export gains.

No big exporter is struggling more than Mexico, where net exports dropped 15% in 2007. Mexican officials announced Monday that output from the country’s once-mighty offshore Cantarell field had plunged by a third in less than a year.

Analysts said there are reasons for optimism. Russia’s government is scrambling to alter the tax rates that many say have put a lid on new oil development. Mr. Robinson said 65 new ultra-deepwater drilling rigs are expected to arrive over the next three years, following a five-year stretch in which the industry gained only 10 such rigs.

Those additional rigs will help companies tap some of the most promising, but now inaccessible, waters off Brazil, Australia, West Africa and in the Gulf of Mexico.

“The sense in the market is that peak oil is here and that things will only get worse,” says Mr. Robinson. “But the verdict is still out on that.”

Oracle

2008-05-23T22:05:00.004-04:00

A reader asked about Murti's oracle status. I give a lot of attention to predictions, mostly negative. But Murti has been correct. His record in the last 3 years is better than that of Pickens. But only if we discount the fact that he was horribly wrong on the low side.

The real Oracle is Simmons. He rarely mentions price. In 2005 he bet Tierney of the New York Times $10,000 that oil would average $200 in 2010.

He has recently said that oil would be $200-$400 (I've also seen it reported as $500) in 6 months to 4 years.

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Another%20Nail%20in%20the%20Coffin.pdf

Annual Net Oil Exports

2008-05-22T15:10:00.002-04:00

Note: I saw a comment on The Oil Drum suggesting that I should have an annual graph. I posted this last October and will update it in June when the EIA releases its latest annual numbers. I'll also make a version matching the Top 20 Chart using raw barrels instead of a percentage.

The purple line extends out a few more years because it had the data I was using for the Top 20 (I was only doing Top 15 at the time)

_________

Here is a preliminary yearly chart of oil exports. These numbers are simply the Total Liquids Production numbers minus the Total Liquids Consumption numbers published each June by the EIA. I believe t12 is the consumption table I used. I'll document that when I update this. I made this earlier this year and I still need to update it for the last year of available data. But the basic shape of things should be clear.

The reason I used the different datasets of countries was the result of adding more and more data to see if anything changed significantly. It doesn't. The reason the different datasets use such weird numbers(18,26,42,49, etc.) was because I wanted to use the same countries in each case, and there are only 49 countries that have consistently exported oil in the last 20 years.

China for instance is number 49 on the list and they haven't exported since 1991. Six other countries have not exported in a few years, hence the next dataset of Top 42. The addition of Kazakhstan to the top 15 gives the current Top 16 which I use for the Monthly Chart. These top 16 make up 90% of total net exports. The top 20 are 93% and top 25 are 96%

Note that this chart uses Percentage of Total Liquids as a measure, when I update this, I'll probably switch to raw barrels.

IEA Drastically Reduces Long-Term Forecast

2008-05-22T03:28:00.001-04:00

International Energy Agency to Cut Supply Forecast, WSJ Says
By Steven Bodzin
May 21 (Bloomberg)

The International Energy Agency, the Paris-based energy analysis organization, will predict that companies may produce 100 million barrels a day by 2030, lower than the 116 million previously forecast, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The group is analyzing the 400 oilfields that provide more than two thirds of crude today to determine how much they are likely to produce in the future based on field health and investment, the newspaper said on its Web site.

The IEA is working with oil companies, oilfield-service companies, energy ministries and consultants, the Journal said. Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran and China aren't cooperating with the new study, the newspaper reported.

The IEA has traditionally assumed that supply would rise to match demand, the Journal said. That assumption is now in doubt as producing nations fail to invest, according to the newspaper.

test presentation embed

2008-05-21T23:29:00.005-04:00

test pres embed - medium 555px

An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude

2008-05-21T09:00:00.004-04:00

An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude
New York Times
May 21st, 2008

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/business/21oil.html?hp

Arjun Murti's predictions

Net Oil Exports - May 2008 Update

2008-05-21T01:30:00.001-04:00

Net Oil Exports - May Update. Top 20 Exporters (93% of total exports).

[next update -July 15th]

I revised February up by about 330,000 bpd. March stays about the same and April exports drop by about 135,000 bpd. all revision data is included in spreadsheet.

Click on following link to download updated Excel spreadsheet(420 kb):
[Next update July 15th]
scroll down to bottom of linked page and hit orange button on right and
then hit second prompt if download doesn't start immediately

Latest Pickens Video - May 20th, 2008

2008-05-21T01:16:00.005-04:00

T. Boone Pickens - May 20th, 2008

Latest video interview with Becky Quick on CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=747990771

1) No Presidential candidates talking about issue.

2) Oil is going to $150 this year.

3) BP Capital was wrong earlier this year. But is now right.

4) BP Capital is long crude oil.

Venezuela adds 30 billion barrels

2008-05-08T13:45:00.004-04:00

Venezuela Says Proved Oil Reserves Rise to 130 Billion Barrels
By Steven Bodzin
May 8 (Bloomberg)

Venezuela has added 30 billion barrels of new proved crude oil reserves, bringing its total to 130 billion barrels, Oil and Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez told reporters today in Caracas.

Ramirez spoke at the opening ceremony of a meeting of South American energy ministers in Caracas.

Rumor has it that the petroleum engineer doing the proving was named Hugo Chavez. Interestingly, this comes on the heels of news that Brazil might surpass Venezuela as South America's biggest producer. 30 billion barrels is larger than Brazil's recent Tupi and Carioca finds combined.

Petrobras to Start Output at Tupi in 2009

2008-05-05T16:56:00.003-04:00

Petrobras to Start Output at Tupi Ahead of Schedule
By Joe Carroll and Monica Bertran
May 5 (Bloomberg)

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, plans to begin pumping crude from its 8 billion-barrel Tupi field in 2009, a year ahead of schedule, and to start its Carioca field in four to five years.

A test well at the offshore Tupi field will produce about 20,000 barrels of oil a day starting in next year's first quarter, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said today in an interview in Houston. Production will reach 100,000 barrels a day by the end of 2010, he said.

Technical challenges involved in tapping crude beneath thousands of meters of rock and salt aren't insurmountable, Gabrielli said. The company will announce an increase in June in its $112.7 billion, 5-year capital budget to fund the work at Tupi, the Western Hemisphere's largest petroleum discovery since 1976, and other offshore prospects, he said.

``I am very surprised that they're saying they can start production that quickly,'' said Matt Cline, a U.S. Energy Department economist who tracks the Latin American energy industry. ``I can't even think of a scenario where that's even plausible.''

Petrobras, as Rio de Janeiro-based Petroleo Brasileiro is known, rose 1.6 percent to 43.70 reais in Sao Paulo. The stock has climbed 25 percent since the company said in November that Tupi may hold 8 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent.

Carioca

Carioca, located to the southwest of Tupi, may hold 33 billion barrels of oil, Brazilian regulator Haroldo Lima said last month. The estimate was based on a magazine article, Lima later said. Gabrielli said it will take several months of drilling to evaluate the field.

There are 7 or 8 prospects in the area of the Atlantic Ocean where Tupi and Carioca are located, Gabrielli said. Other producers exploring that area for oil and gas include Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., BG Group Plc and Repsol YPF SA.

``The hypothesis we have is that they are very large reserves, but we don't know,'' Gabrielli said. The increase in capital spending will be ``a lot,'' he said. ``We need more rigs, and they are very expensive right now.''

Tupi, located 155 miles (250 kilometers) off the Brazilian coast, may employ more than six drilling vessels once next year's test well is finished, Gabrielli said. The world's most advanced deepwater rigs are renting for $600,000 or more per day in some cases.

Fine Tuning

Petrobras plans to use knowledge gained from next year's production test at Tupi to ``fine tune'' tools and techniques it'll use to tap other offshore reservoirs, Gabrielli said. The company is spending $60 million to drill each offshore well, down from $240 million per well a few years ago, as rig crews and engineers become more familiar with the region's geology, he said.

``We think we don't have any big technical challenge here,'' Gabrielli said. ``We know pretty much most of the technology.''

Petrobras expects to increase production to the equivalent of 4.2 million barrels of oil a day by 2015, Gabrielli said. The company produced 2.34 million barrels a day in March.

Will Brazil Become a Net Exporter?

2008-05-01T07:21:00.002-04:00

In Robert Bryce's "Gusher of Lies" (2008) I found the following section on Brazil:

By 2010, the company [Petrobras] will likely be exporting 500,000 barrels of oil per day. and by 2015, the company hopes to double its oil production again, to some 4.5 million barrels per day. These plans gained credence in November 2007 when the company announced that its new offshore Tupi field may hold up to 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Tupi is the second largest oil discovery in the last 20 years.

I found this odd, since the 4.5 mbpd goes well beyond even the most optimistic forecasts I've seen in the last few years.

*N.B. - The following chart is not a forecast, it is an implementation of the scenario described above. It uses numbers that produce 500 kbpd of exports in 2010 and 4.5 mbpd of crude, condensate, NGL, and RPG production (excluding ethanol) in 2015. Ethanol production is included in chart, but kept at its 2007 level of 400 kbpb. Consumption is estimated at growing 2% annually through 2010 and 6% annually through 2015.

From the numbers of the last 5 years we can see that Brazil's production has accelerated to 10-12% annually at times and flattened out twice. Since Early 2006 it has dropped to about 2% annually.

Will Brazil Become a Net Exporter?

Deutsche Bank Forecast

2008-04-28T09:33:00.000-04:00

Oil May Rise Until Demand Collapses, Says Deutsche
By Ayesha Daya
April 28 (Bloomberg)

There is a ``huge risk'' that oil prices will continue to rise until demand collapses because additional supplies are limited and alternative fuels decades away from replacing crude, Deutsche Bank AG said.

``There is a huge risk that the oil price simply continues to escalate until it gets to some level ($200 a barrel?) when demand finally collapses because ordinary people can no longer afford to burn as much energy as they are burning now,'' Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist Adam Sieminski wrote in a report dated April 25.

Oil demand previously collapsed in the early 1980s, after nominal oil prices rose tenfold between 1970-73 and 1980-83, to $35 a barrel from around $3.50. Oil averaged about $25 a barrel from 2000-03, suggesting prices would have to increase to $250 a barrel in 2010-13 to have the same impact on oil users this time around, Sieminski said. Deutsche Bank's price forecast for Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil next year is $102.50 a barrel.

Oil prices have surged 82 percent in the past year as investors purchased contracts as a hedge against the dollar, which fell to a record low against the euro, and as an alternative to flagging equity markets. Crude oil rose to a record $119.93 a barrel today after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and gunmen attacked police guarding Nigeria's largest oil and gas terminal.

Investment Needs

Additional oil supplies will come only from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces 40 percent of the world's oil, because non-OPEC output will need ``enormous levels of investment'' just to maintain current levels of production.

``However, much of the remaining oil-in-the-ground in OPEC is run by National Oil Companies that have, by and large, been starved of investment capital by their own governments, for example Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran,'' Sieminski said.

The exception is Saudi Arabia, which holds the world's largest oil reserves. The country has no plans to raise output beyond its 2009 target of 12.5 million barrels a day, Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in an interview with Argus Media this month.

Any strengthening of the U.S. dollar would take time to stem the flow of investment into commodities, and alternative energies such as solar power or biofuels are at least a decade away from contributing to energy supply, Sieminski said.

Goldman Sachs Forecast

2008-04-23T19:13:00.002-04:00

Goldman Sachs Says Window `Closing Fast' for Oil Drop
By Will Kennedy and Grant Smith
April 23 (Bloomberg)

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the most profitable Wall Street bank, said the window for a decline in oil this spring is `closing fast,' as prices rise to records and the summer period of peak gasoline demand approaches.

U.S. crude imports are likely to rise because of lower inventories and the strength of local oil prices relative to the rest of the world, Goldman analysts led by Giovanni Serio said in their Energy Weekly report.

``Looking into the second half of this year, given the fundamental tightness, we believe the risks are substantially skewed to the upside,'' the report said.

The bank said on April 10 that oil may not fall as far as it expected previously, predicting that prices may slip to $98.80 in the spring, above a previous ``floor'' of $90 a barrel.

Crude oil futures rose to a record $119.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday.

Goldman maintained its expectations for the price of the front-month crude contract in three, six and 12-months at $102, $107.50 and $115 a barrel respectively. The bank's forecast for the average price in 2008 of $105 is the second-highest among 31 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Net Oil Exports - April 2008 Update

2008-04-17T15:06:00.012-04:00

Net Oil Exports - April Update. Top 20 Exporters (93% of total exports).

For those of you that have already downloaded the spreadsheet - The correct value for Venezuelan March production is 2444 not 2244. Thanks to eastender for catching that.

Exports dropped by about 150,000 barrels per day in March.

check link to right for newer spreadsheet

Pickens Reversal

2008-04-17T13:55:00.000-04:00

Boone Pickens Adopts Long Position on Oil Investments
By Daniel Whitten
April 17 (Bloomberg)

Boone Pickens, a billionaire energy investor, said he reversed course and adopted a long position on oil, meaning he is betting the price of crude will rise.

Pickens, 79, the founder and chairman of Dallas-based BP Capital LLC, said today in a speech at Georgetown University that the price of crude oil will only continue to climb and demand will eventually be dampened.

``The position is long, not short,'' Pickens told reporters after his speech. ``I covered the short position, it was a mistake on my part. We missed.''

Crude oil futures in New York touched $115.54 a barrel today, the highest intraday price since trading began in 1983.

Pickens said he thought oil was approaching $125 a barrel. Oil will eventually reach $150 per barrel, he said while cautioning ``I won't be investing in $150 oil.''

World oil supplies won't exceed 85 million barrels a day because of high depletion rates of existing wells, he said in his speech.

``There is only 85 million barrels of oil globally in the market coming a day and I don't think you can increase that 85 million,'' Pickens said.

World oil demand during the four years ending 2008 is rising at an average annualized pace of about 1.4 percent, according to International Energy Agency forecasts.

OPEC Reluctance

Over the same period, non-OPEC oil supply is seen climbing at a slower pace of 0.9 percent. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has this year been reluctant to commit to pumping more, saying supply and demand are in balance.

Pickens endorsed Republican presidential candidate John McCain, while criticizing his energy policies. Recent McCain proposals to stop putting oil into the federal Strategic Petroleum Reserve and to suspend a gasoline tax for the summer wouldn't be good for the country, Pickens said.

``I'm hoping he will become better informed and come up with better ideas about energy than he has up to now,'' he said.

He plans to invest $10 billion in 4,000 megawatts of wind projects within the next several years.

``We are going to put a lot of money into wind next month,'' Pickens said, adding he expects at least a 25 percent return on his investment.

Angola

2008-04-17T07:23:00.001-04:00

Angola Crude Oil Exports, Including Palanca, Fall 1.7% in June
By Alexander Kwiatkowski and Nesa Subrahmaniyan
April 17 (Bloomberg)

Angola's daily crude oil shipments, including the Palanca grade, will drop 1.7 percent in June.

BP Plc, Total SA, Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and other companies will ship an average of 1.92 million barrels a day in June, compared with 1.95 million barrels a day scheduled for May, according to the loading program. The schedule for Palanca cargoes had previously been unavailable.

Angola, which became a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in 2007, was given a daily production target of 1.9 million barrels at the group's meeting in Abu Dhabi last year. The country's oil output increased 18 percent last year to 1.61 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency.

Sixty cargoes totaling about 57.6 million barrels will load in June, compared with 63 cargoes totaling 60.6 million barrels in May.

Angola's June loadings will include seven cargoes apiece for BP and Total, and six for Exxon Mobil. StatoilHydro ASA, Eni SpA and Chevron are scheduled to lift five cargoes. Galp Energia SGPS SA will load one cargo of Nemba crude.

State-run Sonangol SA has 22 cargoes, while Sonangol Sinopec International, a venture between the national oil company and China's biggest refiner, will load two Plutonio shipments.

Angolan oil comprised 5 percent of total U.S. crude imports in 2006, or 513,000 barrels a day, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Angola's cargoes typically range in size from 875,000 barrels to 1 million barrels apiece. Following is a table showing the number of Angolan crude cargoes scheduled to load in June and May.
================================================================
Grade      Cargoes    Total      Bbls/Day     Previous   %Change

Cabinda       6     5,700,000     190,000      183,871      +3.3
Dalia         9     8,550,000     285,000      245,161     +16.3
Girassol      8     8,000,000     266,667      290,323      -8.1
Hungo         8     7,600,000     253,333      275,806      -8.1
Kissanje      8     7,600,000     253,333      245,161      +3.3
Kuito         2     1,750,000      58,333       56,452      +3.3
Mondo         3     2,850,000      95,000       91,935      +3.3
Nemba         8     7,600,000     253,333      275,806      -8.1
Palanca       2     1,970,000      65,667       95,323     -31.1
Plutonio      6     6,000,000     200,000      193,548      +3.3

Total        60    57,620,000    1,920,667   1,953,387      -1.7
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New Production Record - January 2008

2008-04-11T09:29:00.009-04:00

The EIA has just released its numbers for January 2008. They show a new production record for Crude and Condensate production (C+C).

You saw it here first. I had prepared a piece for this in the last week as I was sure it was going to happen, but I will hold off and wait to see what those who have been adamant about 2005 being the peak have to say. Hopefully they are starting to learn that we just can't predict.

74,466 is 168,000 barrels per day above the previous monthly record of May 2005.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilproduction.html

Here is a link to graphs on EIA Revisions and what they tend to do.