'fuh-"baw: 1. a game of highly organized chaos. 2. the wild card of football analysis.

Join the Norman Einsteins!

2009-05-26T23:55:00.004-04:00

In case you haven't heard, the Norman Einsteins are coming.

I know you're asking, "But what's a 'Norman Einstein,' Cian?"

Good question.

The Norman Einsteins is an online magazine. Published the first weekday of every month, the Norman Einsteins brings together talented contributors from all over the web for a Molotov cocktail of sports, culture, and ingenuity that you can't get anywhere else all in one place.

The Norman Einsteins spotlights in-depth and creative pieces, highly expressive and original work found solely in our magazine. Our first issue drops next Monday, June 1st.

Sure, you can update your Fuhbaw bookmark to http://normaneinsteins.com... but allow me a recommendation: join our list.

The list is a monthly email update alerting you when the latest issue of the Norman Einsteins is online. That's it - one email a month.

By now you're asking yourself, "But how do I get on this list?"

Well, that's simple. Just email:

join@normaneinsteins.com

It's that easy. You'll now receive an automatic update when the latest issue of the Norman Einsteins is published. All you have to do is sit back and enjoy.

Thanks to everyone who took the time to check out Fuhbaw, my labor of love for last two years. I urge you to check out the Norman Einsteins and join our list. It's should be a lot of fun.

Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap

2009-05-26T12:35:00.000-04:00

This photo doesn't necessarily have anything to do with football besides the incidental fact that I'm wearing a Packers shirt and am very happy about it... which is usually how I feel when I wear that Packers shirt: unduly pleased. I wanted to post a photo of myself with more directly related football content but when I'm out on the scene I spend so much time behind the camera I rarely cross over to the other side of the lens. So this one will have to do.

Anyway, this photo was taken by my friend Stephanie, an excellent photographer, and I like it very much. I guess I just wanted to give you a shot of myself in that unlikely case you pass me on the street, maybe now you'll stop and say "hi" or perhaps more likely just do a double take and wonder if you recognize me from somewhere.

Later today, I'll post here one last time, a final imploration to join the Norman Einsteins mailing list, which will go something like this:

*Just email thelist-join@normaneinsteins.com then reply to the confirmation email.*

The Norman Einsteins is a new project bringing together talent from around the web to dish on sports and culture. I'm really excited to be getting this new project off the ground. Our first issue will be published online June 1st at normaneinsteins.com.

But right now I wanted to thank everyone who took the time to check out this blog in its lifespan.

June 27, 2007 to May 26, 2009. Exactly 700 days. Nearly two years. Thousands of hours of writing and research. Countless words crossed out, ideas scratched, lessons learned, and every so often the occasional completed piece advanced just how I hoped it would be.

This page will remain up but not updated after today. I have no intentions of pulling Fuhbaw down. Hasselbeck will remain forever in agony atop the banner. I still hope that people will stumble upon the Practice Theory or my best columns in the sidebar.

There were many stories that never happened, countless hours of leg work that never amounted to a single published word. An Ivy League game between the Columbia Lions and the Princeton Tigers comes to mind. An aborted interview attempt with Dick LeBeau after I ran into tons of interference from the Steelers.

Let me share with you one of these stories that never happened.

This year, I went to cover the NFL Draft on the scene. I attended the year before and thought I had the whole thing down pat. I expected to roll up to Radio City near daybreak and find a serpentine line of cracked-out football fans stretching blocks through the leviathans of midtown Manhattan.

And so I did, roll up to Radio City in the early morning hours. I emerged from the subway shortly after daybreak, light beginning to cling desperately to the city's forms still slowly shaking off the night's silence.

However, the street was desolate. No lines, no people. Just empty barricades stretching down the street. The entirety of my story had vanished. I planned to walk up and down and simply talk to people who waited all night. Why do you come? Why do you wait? What do you expect? What are you hoping for?

But the NFL had outmanuevered the tradition. And for good reason. The last several years, the long wait for the limited free seating at the draft had occasioned stampedes on the doors when it became clear there were more wrists than wristbands.

At the time, that knowledge didn’t comfort me. I was standing on the corner with no story and no clue what to do. I gathered what info I could from a bemused looking Browns fan then started to walk up and down the street, searching for any inspiration, any story whatsoever.

I met him on the corner of 51st Street and 6th Avenue. An overlarge Joe Horn Saints jersey was draped around his considerable frame. A phone jutting straight out from his ear so prominently that it wasn't immediately that I realized that he was talking to me.

But he was... in a stream-of-consciousness rant about just how the NFL screwed him over.

I just tried to keep up as he talked about the years he’s been coming to the draft. How he’s been heartbroken time and time again by the Saints. Which fans were worse, the Eagles or the Jets (his money, the Jets by a mile). What stadiums he still had yet to visit. Which free agent contracts were ridiculous. What draft prospects were overrated.

In the span of some three hours we wandered around trying to find a way into the draft and we talked football the entire time. I tried to turn this guy’s plight and a few other shutout fans milling about into my story. But in the end it just wasn’t compelling enough. Sure, the NFL changed the rules and didn’t tell anyone by giving out the wristbands for admittance the night before. But the decision froze out only a handful, a fair price to ensure the safety of the majority.

Instead of a story, however, I found a fast if brief friend. We eventually went our separate ways. But for those few hours the two of us shot back and forth about every topic imaginable concering this sport we love. It’s an experience I doubt I would’ve had if not for writing this blog for the past couple years.

And that’s special to me. I’m thankful that starting this blog has, contrary to the general depiction of bloggers as stuck in their parents’ basements, pushed me out into the world, whether the world of ideas or the bustling one of real people.

Most of all, though, I want to thank you who took the time to check in on this blog from time to time and allowed me the space to share knowledge, make mistakes, and organize my thoughts. Some of you have come and gone and come back again. Some of you have just come then gone. Some of you have diligently clicked that bookmark every day.

It's been fun. But now it's time to grow and change. Please join me in that growth and change... and allow me one last plug (no, not for the Norman Einsteins, that comes later today... and yes, you should join the list) but for Throwing Into Traffic where Zac will be dropping his always thoughtful, always entertaining NFL football knowledge.

Zac's been an indispensable brother-in-arms in the day-late, big-idea football analysis game. And no one’s even come close to what Zac does for the NFL beat. That's the nice thing about the internet, there's always something else out there to be discovered.

The Norman Einsteins Are Calling!

2009-05-22T10:06:00.002-04:00

"Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." -Joe Theismann

It's something I've hinted at in this space over the last month, but let me make it official: I'm launching a new project.

It's called - if you can't tell from the big image above - the Norman Einsteins. It's a monthly online magazine of sports and culture. Our first issue is dropping June 1st.

Let me make a recommendation, join our email list. It's a monthly email notifying you when the latest issue is published. To subscribe, send an email to:

thelist-join@normaneinsteins.com

Then reply to the confirmation email - simple as pie! Your email address will only be visible to the list admin (that's me) and the list is announcement-only (members cannot reply to it) so you can be assured your privacy won't be compromised.

The reasons for this new venture are manifold, but let me run down the main ones.

First, I believe there is phenomenal talent lurking in the sports blogosphere, but for the most part it's disconnected from each other. The Norman Einsteins magazine is about bringing that talent together every month for creative long form and freeform projects, giving it space to stretch out free from the daily publishing grind of blogging.

With the Norman Einsteins, I'm very lucky to have some truly great writers/bloggers signed on for the first issue.

Second, with the push to microblogging (Twitter and the like) there's a condensing and ultimately dearth of highly expressive content. Not just in sportswriting, by any means, but sportswriting has been duly effected. Mainstream Media blames the internet without realizing that the internet is merely a tool, something not unlike the paper dying print is inked upon. It seems to me that there is still great untapped potential in using the web as a canvas.

I've created what I hope to be a simple yet engaging and flexible site which will allow myself and my contributors to explore ways to ring the most out of the online medium in concert with great content.

And third, perhaps most importantly, the Norman Einsteins is a challenge not just to myself, but to the quality of work that can be created for you, the avid sports fan. I began Fuhbaw two years ago because I wanted to push myself, to grow and change.

The Norman Einsteins magazine is a continuation of that growth and change, but broadened in scope and goal.

I've learned a lot beyond just football in this space. Putting thoughts down, making sense of them, then hitting that "publish" button really teaches a person much about himself, how his mind works, then what rattling about in that mind is valuable for the reader out there. I wouldn't trade the two years of constant work on Fuhbaw for anything.

But, it's time to move on, it's time to grow and change. And I hope you join me. It should be a lot of fun.

So, yes, soon I won't be publishing here at Fuhbaw. Join the list - again, email thelist-join@normaneinsteins.com then simply reply to the confirmation email - and in exchange for receiving one email a month with one link to click, read some truly unique sports analysis, stories, and projects.

The Shadow's Shade

2009-05-21T11:55:00.000-04:00

Word comes down from Les Bowen at the Philadelphia Daily News (via Michael Lombardi at the National Football Post) that Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is taking leave for a second round of chemotherapy.

As we ourselves age, inevitably cancer finds people we know and love… or ourselves. Part of that truth – combined with advancements in treatment and early detection – has made cancer less threatening than it was a generation ago. Both my mom and an aunt survived breast cancer. And, given the toughness of these ladies, outside of a few moments of anxiety, that felt a foregone conclusion to me.

But no one seems to be sugar coating Jim Johnson’s second battle with melanoma, a particularly nasty strain of cancer at that.

I’m a big Jim Johnson fan. That might not be obvious, but it’s fact. I tend to focus my analysis on players because so much of what happens on the field veers sharply off script. And sportswriting, I feel, already places too much blame or adulation on the coach’s head. I’ll hardly deny the long hours the job demands and the work put it in. But at the pro level, the sport is more about the translation of this work through the players playing and the rare physicality we as fans witness in action.

Certain coaches get it. And Jim Johnson is one of those.

Much like his contemporary Dick LeBeau at the Steelers, Johnson runs a creative attacking defensive system, one that’s just as exciting to watch as any high powered offense because it refuses the contention that defenses are inherently reactive and therefore passive. Never mind that Johnson runs a base 4-3 and LeBeau a 3-4, their systems are blood brothers at their core.

And, as Lombardi points out, Johnson is a masterful in-game playcaller, not a trait normally bandied about with defensive coaches. His feel for rhythm – of the opponent’s offense, of his players’ performances – affords Johnson the freedom to dictate the pace of the game rather than have it dictated to him.

But what I appreciate most about Johnson is his way with his players. And that truth is most central to Johnson’s success in running a creative scheme and employing it masterfully on game days.

You can see Johnson's skill with his players in his development of midrounders into Pro Bowlers, like Trent Cole and Jeremiah Trotter. You can see it in the players that have left Philly and never matched their previous success, like Corey Simon and Bobby Taylor. You can see it in the respect former Eagles defenders have for the franchise despite owner Jeff Lurie's penny pinching (or "thrift" if you prefer).

Johnson has made an art of communication and adaptability. His scheme sticks to his basic tenets of aggression and relentless pursuit, but he builds its specifics around the skills of his players. It’s those kind of rare harmonius convergences that thrive in the NFL, evident in the Eagles Super Bowl run in 2004 and the championship game run last year.

So here’s hoping for Jim Johnson’s health for himself, for his family, for his friends. But here’s hoping for his health, not least of all, for the sport itself.

Logic In the Mist

2009-05-18T10:26:00.003-04:00

Never underestimate the kind of crazy it takes to excel as a pro linebacker.

A brief local news item picked up by MSNBC.com is garnering some notice in this dead offseason. Pittsburgh backer James Harrison is refusing President Obama's White House invitation.

It is of course a photo op tradition, the Super Bowl winning team descends upon the White House to shake hands with the Prez and present him with a team jersey numbered according to the latest Super Bowl.

Okay. So Harrison is a staunch conservative who is still distraught at McCain's horrid loss? Nope.

"This is how I feel -- if you want to see the Pittsburgh Steelers, invite us when we don't win the Super Bowl. As far as I'm concerned, he [Obama] would've invited Arizona if they had won," said Harrison.

Yup, James, that's pretty much true. If the Cardinals would've won, then, yes, they would have the privilege of meeting the President of the United States of America. You know, a privilege not everyone gets.

I had forgotten that Harrison pulled the same thing after Super Bowl 40 when Harrison was a special teams demon, not a starter. At that time, Harrison's decision was odd. I think many of us wrote it off as a confused political statement.

And really Harrison's first White House boycott was a weird but fitting conclusion to a Steelers championship which was flush with similar craziness. Remember Joey Porter's bizarre pregame claims? The Steelers were six seeds in the AFC facing a one-seed Seahwaks team yet many writers pegged Pittsburgh the favorite. Porter took those predictions as a sign of *disrespect* to the team's underdog status and yelled about it much of the week leading up to the game.

When Harrison, a little known player, chose to skip the White House handshake with President Bush, it really just seemed like another small piece of the collective madness.

Instead, as evidenced by Harrison's second skip, fresh off his Defensive Player of the Year season, his decision is a significant glimpse of what makes insane competitors tick. Against all logic, Harrison seems to believe that the President should feel privileged to meet the Steelers coaches and players. The implication persists that the President is jumping the bandwagon.

But I think most importantly, Harrison is displaying a complete disregard for hallowed forms or venerated traditions. To succeed in a world as bizarre as pro sports, the athlete must believe anything possible, that limitations apply to other people, and there is nothing that he or she doesn't deserve if the requisite hard work is put in.

I often go back and forth with a coworker about sports stars. This coworker chafes at any player who even remotely comes off as cocky or swaggering (members of the Boston Celtics excepted). I'm constantly laying the case for the importance of ego in sports, and not just for the oft-repeated narrative involving hubris.

The psyche of the athlete is a bizarre and sometimes fascinating place. Sure, Kobe Bryant is an awful human being but you can't fault him for his notion that he is somehow better than everyone else, because, well, there's some truth to it.

Athletes in the course of their work don't necessarily better the world in any measurable way. Sure, plenty of wealthy sports stars donate money and time to charity work, start their own foundations, and give back to communities. But that's more a function of wealth than sports. If players made no more than their forebearers in pro sports, I'm sure the amount of charity work undertaken among pro athletes would fall in lines with its variation among the middle class.

Yet sports do benefit the world at large, if not in an obvious way. It's this notion of pushing the human form to its limits in order to extract the absolute best from it. While the human brain is our greatest asset, pro sports functions as a laboratory of sorts, how that greatest asset is put to use to maximize the excellence of our greatest limitation, our bodies.

Take a gander around the animal kingdom. Compared to other species near the top of the food chain, humans are slow and weak and small. Our bodies are that which fail us. But for whatever reason we must confront with the limitations of our forms.

Sports, in a broad sense, is a repudiation that we aren't fast or strong or big enough. The most physically gifted among us, pushing themselves as far as they can go on a physical plane, is almost required to have a hearty disdain for limitations. It's an unique mindset, but it is primarily just that, a state of mind. Like the approach of any kind of greatness in human endeavor, that state of mind is going to seem more than a little off to those of us who muddle around the middle of human existence.

So James Harrison's decision to rebuff Obama's invitation is culturally idiotic. The most powerful man on this Earth and his requests should not be taken lightly. But in a philosophical sense, in an evolutionary sense, Harrison's reasoning is something to be expected even if - no - especially because it smacks of hubris.

Faces And Sketches (This Changes Everything)

2009-05-14T16:41:00.003-04:00

Two trades significantly reordered the first round of this year’s NFL draft, one at the top, one near the bottom. Two teams both shot up a dozen or more selections, surrendering a considerable cost in draft picks and/or players, to take their man. The two targets both hailed from USC.

And, in the seasons to come, these two trades could go a long way to defining the 2009 draft, for better or worse. They most certainly will define the fortunes of two teams.

I am, of course, talking about the New York Jets trading up for quarterback Mark Sanchez and the Green Bay Packers for linebacker Clay Matthews III.

There are plenty of differences between the two trades. Sanchez keys the offensive identity of a defensive-minded team. Matthews, along fellow first-round selection BJ Raji, the defensive identity of an offensive team. Sanchez is the new face of a franchise. Matthews is one step in recovery from once surrendering too much of the franchise to a single face. Sanchez is bound for the media epicenter that is New York. Matthews the cultural backwater that is Green Bay.

But the trades and selections for Sanchez and Matthews represent a break from the past for the Jets and the Packers, two teams, once bound, in differing degrees, to the fortunes of Brett Favre.

In the case of the Jets, it’s a final clean break from the Eric Mangini era. And it’s not just ridding the roster of a few Mangini favorites – Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam, and Bret Ratliff – rather it’s about putting faith in talent and hoping to construct a system around that.

Fitting then that Jets traded up with Mangini’s new team to accomplish this sea change. As the Cleveland Browns continued to backpedal through the round, the Jets sprinted forward. Just as they targeted key free agent Bart Scott and disgruntled Lito Sheppard in trade, GM Mike Tannenbaum and new coach Rex Ryan set their sights on Sanchez as a cornerstone to build the new Jets around.

Mangini brought system and desperation. Ryan brings flexibility and aggression. I’m not saying one is objectively better than the other. Each have their applications. But for a team that folded so miserably down the stretch last year the change is likely welcome.

Matthews, on the other hand, now a Packer isn’t the reflection of a new regime. However, his presence does indicate a minor revolution of sorts. And it’s not just the team’s shift from the base 4-3 defense to a 3-4 taught by new coach, former Blitzburgh coordinator Dom Capers.

Yes, the scheme shift and this ensuing draft are incredibly important for Green Bay. Matthews and Raji keep the Packers from fitting too many square pegs into round holes (though we’re all stuck with the potentially awkward, potentially amazing drama of Aaron Kampman’s transition to rush linebacker).

But the Packers eschewed their patient approach to roster building in the confident trade-up to snag Matthews. GM Ted Thompson has employed a strategy of trading down again and again to amass picks and improve his chances statistically to hit on his selections. A draft by volume approach.

By trading away their one second- and both third-round selections to the Patriots, the Packers claimed an assurity not just in the skills of Matthews and Raji to toughen a defensive front seven pushed around too much to compete in the NFC North but also in the strength of their roster built by trading down through the course of four prior drafts.

And that’s another thing both trades share, a certain boldness, a certain swagger. Perhaps not new to the likes of big talking Rex Ryan, perhaps more so to the buttoned-up Ted Thompson.

Most importantly, though, regardless of how Sanchez and Matthews pan out, they signal new territory for their respective teams.

Freedom Of Routine (This Changes Nothing)

2009-05-12T13:06:00.001-04:00

The Ravens continue to be the Ravens, perhaps more consistent in their identity than any other team in the NFL.

While the veterans seem to define the team, the scary part is that Baltimore is getting younger and potentially better at their most important positions, the positions they use as cornerstones.

If the draft is all about value, then the important part is how value is perceived. The Ravens have a slightly different value system than everyone else. Gigantic tackles, high-motor edge rushers, ball-hawking defensive backs, versatile running backs.

The Ravens assurity even spreads to the type of player they draft at each position. Last year, drafting Joe Flacco in almost every way displayed the same logic as drafting bust Kyle Boller a few years before. Raw prospect. Big arm. Difficult to gauge intangibles (Boller coming out of Tedford’s Cal system, Flacco of DI-AA Delaware).

But general manager Ozzie Newsome stuck to his guns, stuck with the profile they were looking for in a quarterback. And Flacco so far looks like the real deal.

Plenty have written off Baltimore’s draft a couple weeks ago as unspectacular, with a couple reaches, while leaving a few needs on the table.

But I’ll refer to Zac at Throwing Into Traffic whose notion that identity advancing talent is always a need, will almost always pay dividends. Looking at Baltimore’s six selections this way, the Ravens draft is potentially good to great.

Though Andre Smith was the best tackle on film and Jason Smith was the best in interviews, Michael Oher from Ole Miss could be the best player of them all. And the Ravens, possessing all the depth and tools to develop him, nab Oher toward the end of the first round.

Knowing they can’t franchise Terrell Suggs forever, the Ravens take Paul Kruger, a big edge rusher. Knowing Samari Rolle won’t run forever, they take ball-hawking Lardarius Webb. And, of course, knowing that they will always be a grind-it-out team, the Ravens take perhaps one of the steals of the draft late in the sixth, back Cedric Peerman, a solid between the tackles runner with the speed to bounce it outside and threaten in the short zones through out of the backfield.

So while pundits can sing the praises of the Bengals drafting well according to some abstract board, the Ravens are perfectly happy being looked over in April, staying true to themselves and likely playing again in January.

The Bitter Pill

2009-05-11T12:22:00.002-04:00

The recently retired John Madden authored a refrain for Brett Favre, one that shorthanded his legacy of occasionally amazing, occasionally frustrating play on the field.

“He looks like a kid out there.”

Like the annual retirement drama – first the will-he-or-won’t-he shell game, then the coyly denied encore – Madden’s fawning refrain for Favre became tiring and the object of ridicule.

But perhaps there’s more truth to the statement underneath the surface.

The new cycle is abuzz with Favre’s possible retiring of retirement again. This time around, though, it’s about righting wrongs, a delayed union with the Minnesota Vikings while sticking it to the Packers management which deftly manuevered around Favre’s demands during last summer’s standoff, shipping Favre to the New York Jets, an ironic Siberia of sorts.

I was prepared to make no more comments on the swirling controversy. Did you miss what I already wrote? It was buried in musings on Percy Harvin to the Vikings:

Favre is a much better quarterback even at 40 than Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels. But at this late stage he can only fulfill the same arch as those two. A surprising and competitive regular season with diminishing returns, a nonfactor once they reach the playoffs.

(And it’s not just Jett Favre that brings me to this conclusion. I was in the stands at Lambeau, we were chanting MVP during what was an incredible statistical season for a 38 year old signal caller. But we knew it was all a nostalgia trip. The Stones with Ron Wood, not Brian Jones. All of the form, most of the substance, but not all the substance… we supplied the rest, the missing part.)

As is his wont, my friend the Counselor was even less charitable than I. “The Giants threw the kitchen sink at Tom Brady and Romo two years ago but they dared Favre to beat them,” he said, “[Favre] couldn't do it.”

But, at some point, this new old mess became about something else. And like Madden’s refrain for Favre, the on-field truths started spilling over to the off-field reality.

Unnamed sources close to Favre report that his bitterness toward the Green Bay Packers management is so deep that he’s seriously considering subjecting his nearly 40 year old body to another grueling season, just a season after injuries limited his effectiveness down the stretch.

The entire bitterness angle might become moot if Favre requires serious surgery on his throwing arm. But it’s there nonetheless, acknowledged during his latest retirement, potentially eating away at the substance of his legacy.

And it strikes me that this overwhelming bitterness is entirely immature, even childish, especially for a man whose beard is flecked with gray and face creased with wrinkles, each gray hair and craggy wrinkle earned through physical campaigns of football seasons stretching back decades.

Perhaps Madden was more right than he knew, that Favre is essentially a child.

There’s a puzzling logic at work here, namely, that something is owed to him yet he owes nothing in return.

At the center of this is a struggle with Green Bay’s management for the identity of the franchise. In last year’s standoff, Favre and wife Deanna revealed a series of demands on the team, players to trade for and sign to give Favre a contender in his final years.

The lines blurred between Favre and the Packers. The face of the franchise thing went too far. Many had a hand in it – fans, coaches, writers, etc – but most of all, Favre himself.

At some point, current general manager Ted Thompson and coach Mike McCarthy sought to draw those distinctions again. What started off as tense became untenable after the Packers close loss in the NFC Championship game two years ago. The new management provided the contender on their own terms in concert with Favre’s diminished role. Did someone not hold up their end of the bargain? If so, which side?

From that tit-for-tat Favre’s bitterness sprung, that childish sense of being denied something owed.

Yet lost in the controversy is what the team’s fans are owed. The front office is not interchangable with the team. Yes, it’s a part, an integral and essential part. But a team is more than this, especially one owned by its fans (though I would argue all fans own their teams to an extent, with the Packers it’s merely a formality).

Fans are owed a contender as often as possible. It’s about what’s on the field. The energies of the players, coaches, and personnel guys should be focused primarily on the goal of a championship. That’s all we ask, a simple and considerable request.

We can debate the various degrees at which this player or that coach is effective at their job. But without that focus, little progress is likely to be made towards a championship.

Favre’s bitterness is about something else. It’s a derailing of this focus. Money and fame already do their part in distracting the group psychology of a team. It's too much to add a quarterback, a de facto leader, not campaigning for an elusive ring, rather because the petty squabbles of power plays bruise the ego.

Favre may play like a kid, but he's acting like one, too.

Light Whitening (This Changes Everything, Maybe)

2009-05-06T17:45:00.001-04:00

There's hope. At least, there seems to be hope.

Immediately after the draft I worried that Pat White, while a seeming perfect fit for Miami’s go-go-gadget Wildcat formation, might be relegated to gimmick duty for the balance of his career.

See, Bill Parcells is a guy that's great at winning the battle, but not necessarily the war, unlike his former pupil Bill Belichick who excels at the inverse. It's amazing how quickly Parcells reverses the fortunes of moribund franchises... but his record of diminishing returns since his days with the Giants is a testament to his powers of being able to work a formula incredibly well yet still being constrained by it.

I don't mean that as a slam at all. He's a great coach. A great football mind. A great personnel guy. But not an innovator.

Anyway, back to Pat White.

But this piece comes down from Omar Kelly at the South Florida Sun-Sentinel (via the Fanhouse):

"[White's] no gimmick. He's dynamic. He's a little bit raw as a [quarterback] but has a good foundation. He's going to get better," one player personnel director said, admitting White was rated among the top-50 players on his team's draft board. "He wasn't going to be there in the third round."

One front-office official believes the Miami Dolphins are trying to revolutionize pro football by bringing the spread to the NFL, and he said the right player to do it in White.

There's been a hell of a lot of spread looking formations and plays creeping into NFL offenses of late. But coaches and players have resisted the "s" word... "spread," that is.

The defenses are too fast in the NFL, spread quarterbacks would be ground into dust... so the refrain runs why the spread won't work in the NFL.

To me, it's all excuses for NFL coaches to play in on the safe side. I don't have any particular love of the spread offense. What I do love is a system that highlights great football talents. And there is a place on the field for a Pat White and a Tim Tebow. At quarterback. It's not about running a pure system. It's about meeting considerable talents halfway.

I was planning a big ol' post about it... but you know what? I really don't have anything to say besides, "Please, oh please, oh please, let it be true."

A Few Of My (Least) Favorite Picks

2009-05-05T09:17:00.001-04:00

In Fuhbaw's ongoing draft analysis (this is the offseason, people, we need to run with this for all it's worth) let's continue to avoid the draft grades and the who's-hot-who's-not talk.

Yesterday, I ran down my favorite picks of the 2009 draft and the reasons why. Today, the flipside, selections that raise more questions than they answer, the head scratchers, the reaches.

These are a few of my (least) favorite picks.

1. Matt Stafford, Lions

The most debated pick in the draft, of course. The arguments for and against are out there and well known. The prevailing sentiment post-draft is that if a team is without a franchise quarterback and they have even the chance to select one, than the team must make the pick.

Really? How's that working out for Oakland? Wouldn't the Browns have been better served to not give away their 2008 draft for Brady Quinn? Vince Young in Tennessee? David Carr in Houston? Hell, even consider Detroit and Joey Harrington. Harrington was a can't-miss prospect who was brutalized behind an offensive line sponsored by Swiss cheese.

Stafford was nowhere near the college player Harrington was. He walks into a complete rebuild job with one clearcut weapon and nothing else to lean on. Contrast that scenario with Stafford at Georgia. The Bulldogs were a championship caliber team on talent, through and through, and they finished as the third best team in their conference (and I'm not sure that Ole Miss wasn't better by season's end). The quarterback isn't the author of everything on the field, but Stafford was awfully inconsistent in the Bulldogs play-action passing system.

I loved everything else about Detroit's draft, such a logical arch to their selections, but the top pick could mar what would otherwise be a franchise changing class.

8. Eugene Monroe, Jaguars

Yes, the bloodless, passionless play bothers me. But Monroe might turn out to be a solid starter. He's polished and has solid footwork. During the Virginia games I've caught in the past couple years, Monroe always plays with solid leverage.

I'm skeptical of the selection of Monroe in the top ten. Andre Smith was considered the top tackle on film. Had Smith not bungled the postseason, combine, and individual workouts, he might have been a legitimate number one overall selection. Jason Smith plays with the requisite nastiness and has elite physical gifts, making him a credible top-five selection (two seems high, but other factors were in play).

What I don't like is the Jaguars eschewing the upside of Michael Oher's abilities for the safety of Monroe's polish. It's one of those soulless chalk picks emblematic of teams whose own ceiling is only so high, say, the divisional round of the playoffs.

26. Clay Matthews III, Packers

I hope I'm wrong about this, but Matthews the Third, royal football lineage aside, fits the profile of a workout wonder. Only one season as a starter (and not until the fourth game of the season). Ridiculously top measurables. The measurables beg the question, though, why did it take four years to crack the starting lineup? Even at USC? More thoughts later this week.

35. James Laurinaitis, Rams

I don't want to bury the guy before he has a chance to prove himself, but I always thought that Laurinaitis was a tad overrated in his Ohio State career. He would dominate the cream puffs, produce at the Big Ten level, then disappear against big-time competition.

Consider, too, that Ohio State hasn't produced many elite front seven players the past several years. I won't call Vernon Gholston a bust yet, but he was horrendous last season. AJ Hawk has never lived up to his fifth overall selection. And Bobby Carpenter's underwhelmed to the point of Dallas chasing busted down free agents like Zach Thomas and Keith Brooking.

Combine that with a Buckeyes scheme designed to increase production from the linebacking corps and Laurnaitis's NFL career might end more like Tom Cousineau's than Chris Spielman's.

37. Alphonso Smith, Broncos

Denver got played by Seattle: next year's first! Not Smith's fault at all... but Josh McDaniels just might have been planted by Bill Belichick to ruin the Broncos.

42. Jairus Byrd, Bills

This has nothing to do with Byrd himself, who if history repeats itself will develop into a solid pro. Rather, I take issue with Buffalo's strategy concerning their defensive backfield. They do a great job developing quality starters then let them leave through free agency. This in turn forces them to spend more high picks on corners and safeties, limiting their ability to address other areas not nearly as set as the defensive backfield could be.

Granted, there's no sense in matching the ridiculous money San Francisco dropped on Nate Clements. But letting a good starter like Jabari Greer go before locking him up to a modest long-term deal spreads draft resources thinner than they already are.

Again, I've got no qualm with Byrd the player, rather the familiar arch Byrd's Buffalo career portends.

73. Derek Cox, Jaguars

I honestly have nothing to say about Cox, considering he played his college ball at the Division II level, William & Mary, to be exact, which at the draft occasioned a "William & Mary has a football team?" response from every group I was sitting amidst. Rather, it's what Jacksonville surrendered to draft such a coveted prospect (a second in 2010) and to whom (the Evil Empire's Foxboro office).

A Few Of My Favorite Picks

2009-05-04T15:36:00.000-04:00

Annually, the NFL draft’s wake is littered with report cards and declarations of winners and losers. This year, of course, is no different.

While the draft’s popularity speaks to a collective anxiety about the unknown, once the event is finished and representatives of the 32 teams head home, unknowns still run rampant.

I don’t mean to disparage instant analysis. There’s something to be said for taking the few knowns and trying to complete the picture yourself. But a simple thumbs up or down doesn’t really help much.

Looking back at the previous weekend, there’s some things that I liked and somethings that I didn’t. Sometimes it’s about the logic of the selection. Sometimes the fit of player and team.

Beginnings are very important, so here are my favorite picks from this year’s draft. Some will be covered in greater depth over the coming week.

4. Aaron Curry, Seahawks

My man DJ Noid groaned when his Seahawks selected Curry. Understandable. Seattle just traded away Julian Peterson and slapped the franchise tag on Leroy Hill. Now they would be floating another bloated contract to a linebacker. But money aside the more puzzling aspect of the selection might be value of the position, considering Hill and Lofa Tatupu are young talents already in the starting lineup.

Seattle tried once already to field an elite corps three across with Peterson, Tatupu, and Hill. More often than working in concert, the three took turns stepping up, but all in all as a group they never quite dominated the way they were supposed to. The tepid result doesn’t necessarily indicate the logic is flawed. Rather the balance was off between the elder Peterson and the younger Tatupu and Hill.

So the Seahawks try again, this time with the player universally considered the top talent irrespective of position in this draft. This is the player that so impressed Dick Butkus, that Butkus delivered his namesake collegiate award to Curry in person.

9. BJ Raji, Packers

22. Percy Harvin, Vikings

In case you missed it... already covered.

23. Michael Oher, Ravens

24. Peria Jerry, Falcons

With several teams abandoning the 4-3 defense in favor of the 3-4 this year, the three-technique defensive tackle is a less coveted commodity. The disrupter, the gap shooter, the creater of chaos: that’s the prototype of a three-technique. Jerry did that better than just about everyone in the nation last year, helping to lead an Ole Miss program out of a several dark seasons.

Atlanta’s most dire need was inside presence on defense. Though, Jerry isn’t a massive space eater, he should free up John Abraham on the edge with his relentless play. While the defense still has a long way to go, Jerry is a perfect building block for the new Falcons.

45. Clint Stintim, Giants

Everyone was so focused on the Giants’ need at receiver, the quiet but important selections of linebacker Clint Stintim and offensive tackle William Beatty in the second round didn’t receive much notice. But it’s those kind of value over need selections that keep top teams competitive.

Both Stintim and Beatty were considered borderline first round talents. Though the defensive front seven and offensive line have been strengths for New York, the Giants wisely chose to select top prospects that they can bring up through their system. Linebacker Antonio Pierce can’t pursue forever and roadgrading tackles David Diehl and Kareem McKenzie are solid but unspectacular. Stintim and Beatty should continue to affirm the Giants commitment to physical play upfront.

46. Connor Barwin, Texans

53. LeSean McCoy, Eagles

I do like the Jeremy Maclin selection in the first round even if Maclin and Desean Jackson are essentially the sam receiver. But I like the running back McCoy selection even more. He’s not a burner though he’s quick. And he’s not huge though he’s tough. If there’s ever anyone who understands carrying the burden of an offense, it’s McCoy from his time in Pittsburgh. And anyone who is slated to take over for Brian Westbrook will have to carry the burden of an offense.

60. William Beatty, Giants

95. Rashad Johnson, Cardinals

Alabama’s regular season last year was a surprise, well, before the poor postseason showing. But what wasn’t a surprise was the hard hitting and rangy play from safety Rashad Johnson. Most of the defense’s regular season domination was focused on massive defensive tackle Terrence Cody, but Rashad was the centerfield enforcer, directing the backcourt and making plays. Arizona continues to do a fantastic job identifying big time performers for their physical defense. Pairing Rashad with hard hitting Adrian Wilson should instill no small amount of fear in the coming years.

119. DJ Moore, Bears

With almost no offense to speak of the Vanderbilt Commodores returned to the postseason for their first bowl win in 53 years. A lot of that had to do with DJ Moore, hands down the team’s top playmaker, a consistent force at corner in the brutal SEC. Moore’s short, he’s not exceptionally fast, though he possesses that impressive field speed that 40 yard times rarely capture. But he’s a born Cover Two corner, able to play off the ball and contain in run support. Desperately needing talent in the secondary, Chicago jumped at the chance to take Moore so late.

152. James Casey, Texans

171. Nate Davis, 49ers

Davis was an enigma throughout the draft process. A great leader at Ball State with an NFL arm yet an admitted learning disability threw the ability to make good on that talent into question. A three year starter who posted grat numbers, Davis was inconsistent against top competition. In a weak quarterback class, what value did the fourth or fifth quarterback really have?

But in San Francisco, Davis might have found a good situation. Yes, Coach Mike Singletary appears to be batshit. But Singletary is also a teacher and a motivator. And if a player demonstrates a willingness to put the hard work, he’ll find a way to teach that player. Davis has been nothing but humble and composed throughout his wildly fluctuating draft season. Something tells me that he has temerity to put in the necessary work to give himself a real shot. And don’t underestimate how fluid San Francisco’s quarterback situation is. Shaun Hill. Alex Smith. Davis needn’t rush to the starting line, but he also shouldn’t be held back if he refines his raw skills.

199. Stryker Sulak, Raiders

Lost in all the bluster about Oakland fetishizing speed in the players they select is that speed is actually incredibly important for NFL success. No, it’s not everything, but it’s important variable. Sulak, an impressively named undersized defensive end from Missouri, will convert to linebacker along with speedy fourth round selection Slade Norris from Oregon State. Sulak was a sack machine in college in large part due to that speed. Along with Norris, he should make a fine special teamer with the opportunity to challenge for a starting spot in a year or two. It’s the kind of sixth round pick that can pay huge dividends for a team.

233. Sammie Stroughter, Buccaneers

Stroughter isn’t the guy who makes the big play. Of course, he’s not. Otherwise he would’ve been selected before the seventh round. But at Oregon State, when he was on the field, he simply produced. The chain mover, the third down guy, the slot machine. He always seemed to be in the right place.

Sammie lost a season to depression after both his male father figures passed. But he battled back with the support of his coach and teammates to regain much of his on-field form. I’m inclined to believe that a player who has faced his demons, battled them, and come back probably has the best chance to deal with the topsy turvy alternate reality that is the NFL. I like Sammie’s chances.

This Changes Everything: This Changes Nothing

2009-05-01T14:48:00.002-04:00

Dreams of the Apocalypse are only affirmation that what humanity has created is utterly beautiful yet terrifying in its scope, that the individual is subsumed in this mess, twisted by it yet somehow bettered as well.

I've been thinking on what the draft this past weekend means, beyond grades, beyond knee-jerk analysis, beyond, well, jerks in general.

I've been thinking that there's some quality to this draft in particular that for teams could change everything immeasurably, or could change nothing at all.

Maybe it's the preponderance of essential but middling talent. It’s like the middle class in this country. Everyone talks about the middle class, no one actually does anything for them. Yet there they are swinging elections and voting on the dollar, that anonymous power that installs or topples regimes.

So the more I ruminate on the overarching theme of the 2009 draft, this class either changes everything or it changes nothing for the league’s 32 teams.

Odd perhaps, but no one exemplifies both these opposing states of inertia better than Percy Harvin, one of the few elites from the rabble of this middling class. Specifically, Percy Harvin to the Minnesota Vikings.

It is important to note, and certainly has been noted, that Harvin fell to the Vikings much like Randy Moss did just over a decade earlier. A transcendent talent weighted down by past transgressions, causing a plummet down the first round.

No, Moss and Harvin aren’t cut from the same cloth, talent-wise. But they both possess game changing ability even if it operates in different ways.

Critics of the Harvin selection point to a range of issues: maturity, intelligence, lack of polish, hubris. He’s either set to self destruct or incapable of rigging the wires for his explosion onto the NFL scene.

These new Vikings are supposed to honor character that maximizes its talent. Harvin proves the new direction simply a shadow show to dim the lights on the Love Boat scandal, if Bryant McKinnie didn’t already do so last season.

No, these are the same old Vikings even with boy scouts Adrian Peterson, Antoine Winfield, and Steve Hutchinson.

And Harvin changes nothing for the Vikings because he’s just another talented piece in that anti-quarterback movement in Minnesota. Even if the Vikes coax Brett Favre out of retirement, I think this holds. Favre is a much better quarterback even at 40 than Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels. But at this late stage he can only fulfill the same arch as those two. A surprising and competitive regular season with diminishing returns, a nonfactor once they reach the playoffs.

(And it’s not just Jett Favre that brings me to this conclusion. I was in the stands at Lambeau, we were chanting MVP during what was an incredible statistical season for a 38 year old signal caller. But we knew it was all a nostalgia trip. The Stones with Ron Wood, not Brian Jones. All of the form, most of the substance, but not all the substance… we supplied the rest, the missing part.)

So Harvin doesn’t change the idea of the Vikings. It’s still talent first, consequences be damned. It’s still a glut everywhere on the field except the most important position. It’s still difficult to discern whether the Vikes brilliantly eschew sound football logic or idiotically defy it.

But Harvin does change the Vikings on field.

This is the pre-draft Vikings. Bernard Berrian is a shiny, high-tech toy without an instruction manual. Sidney Rice is on pause until free agency finds him producing sneaky good numbers on the Jets or Ravens. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor are trapped in the phantom zone from Superman II.

Harvin brings all these pieces together, his playmaking talent potentially slotted in every skill position on offense, even out of a Wildcat formation. It’s not what he does down field, it’s what he does in the short zones, out of the backfield, across a formation.

Harvin’s play may be raw but it will work between all the polished pieces of the Vikings offense, connecting them as the quarterback position should but currently doesn’t.

It’s not that I lack faith that Childress won’t fuck this up, he most certainly will. Watching the Viking-Eagles playoff game last year removed any doubt in my mind that Childress will never coach this team to the Promised Land. While Brian Dawkins is having the game of his late career, Childress kept sending his receivers over the middle and charging his inexperienced quarterback to attack through the air while perhaps the best player in the league stalks the sidelines or takes the playfake. Seriously, how do you not ride Adrian Peterson when your season is on the line?

Jared Allen, Pat Williams, and Kevin Williams – the best four man front in football even without a fourth body lining up beside them – will soften the blow of Childress’s ineptitude and make this a competitive team. Perhaps enough to keep Childress his job

But these Vikings will put the fear of God into opponents, not just on potential alone any more. Harvin could become the last important piece of this quarterback-less contender and the reason it should face an end of days.

The Business Of Heros And Villains

2009-04-28T11:29:00.000-04:00

More draft analysis to come, but a little item that caught my attention this morning: Colts owner Jim Irsay is refusing to reopen negotiations on the Lucas Oil Stadium deal.

Okay. Not surprising, right? There's really no good precedent for reworking the terms of a stadium deal, publicly financed or not.

Except, Indianapolis city officials feel that the current economic crisis represents extenuating circumstances. The main problem centers around the city's Capital Improvement Board (CIB) which operates Lucas Oil Stadium, leasing it to the Colts. According to Indiana governor Mitch Daniels and other state and local officials, the CIB is facing a $47 million dollar deficit for 2010.

Government officials are asking for an additional $5 million, in good conscious, from the Colts and the Pacers (the CIB also operates the Conseco Fieldhouse) to alleviate some of that deficit among other measures set to save the CIB.

My question is this, given the Irsays' history, why would Indiana ever believe they would get anything from the Colts?

Jim's father Robert was the one who loaded up the team in the middle of the night and moved them from Baltimore to Indianapolis in the first place. Of course, the Colts situation in Baltimore deteriorated around the lack of a new stadium. Back-room negotiations became front-page bickering. Distrust deepened on both sides. The elder Irsay tried to use a sale or move of the club to finalize a public financed stadium deal. But the tactics blew up in his face, eroding support in government and in the public for the franchise's stadium needs.

The saga was a public relations nightmare from every side. The city of Baltimore, with the backing of the Maryland legislature, tried to seize the club. The specter of seizure sped up the negotiations between Indianapolis and Irsay. Once finalized, Indianapolis mayor John B. Smith sent a fleet of Mayflower trucks to the Colts facility in Owings Mills and whisked the franchise away in the middle of the night.

Of course, the Irsays blame the city of Baltimore and the state legislature. And many government officials blame Robert Irsay's lack of tact in the final years of the stadium imbroglio.

There's probably enough blame to go around for both sides. But, to bring it up to the current day, does the state of Indiana really expect the the younger Irsay to go back on the terms of his very favorable deal? I'm assuming not.

Are they simply trying to create a convenient villain, a temporary one that citizens won't hate forever, but will distract the public attention's long enough while the city government raises some local taxes? That seems more likely. Irsay's already come out and said, "I'm not going to renegotiate. That's the bottom line."

I don't know if the situation between the state of Indiana and Irsay will get uglier. The public financed stadium has been taken as a given in this day and age. However, the current financial crisis has the public reexamining its values along the line of where its money goes. When city and state agencies are running up overlarge deficits simply to keep multi-millionaires and their sports teams in town, there something wrong with the system.

Unfortunately, politics tends toward convenient villains rather than real solutions. I'm not saying Irsay is right and the governor is wrong or vice versa. But they're both operating with flawed contentions, inherited from the twisted business of pro sports over the past few decades.

Love the Draft/Hate the Draft

2009-04-27T10:42:00.008-04:00

I'm finding it difficult to parse out the meaning of this year's Draft from the general excitement of Draft weekend.

Is the 2009 class an essential restocking of the league's middle class? Or simply mediocre from start to finish? Do we get hot and bothered over reaches like Darrius Heyward-Bey or Larry English? Or acknowledge with a shrug that nearly every player could've been selected a round later?

However it plays out, the Draft is a weekend to gleefully indulge our fanaticism, to dream big about the upcoming season, to over-think the manifold possibilities.

I don't have any draft grades, no winners and losers. But I do have several things I liked (+) and disliked (-) throughout the course of the weekend. Read along.

+ As wary as I am of the Stafford pick for Detroit, the remaining selections were all part of a solid - dare I say it - plan. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew gives them a top talent even if not a dire need. Safety Louis Delmas adds desperately needed physicality to the backcourt. Receiver Derrick Williams is a playmaker, plain and simple. And a ton of big, raw prospects late in the Draft gives coach Schwartz talent to develop in the trenches. I don't know if this class will work out for the Lions, but the logic is there.

- The Browns tried the quantity over quality approach... only they didn't nab much quantity for all the quality they gave up. It's not that Alex Mack and Brian Robiskie won't develop into solid starters, they most likely will; rather, dropping from the fifth overall selection to the 21st and netting only a second rounder and a couple of sixths seems like blowing a golden opportunity. At least, Cleveland is putting themselves in a position to have another shot at a high draft pick next year.

+ Seattle fleeces Denver for the Broncos first round pick next year, giving up their high second round pick, yet the Seahawks still have the juice to nab top interior linemen Max Unger in a trade with Chicago.

- Ten minutes after Seattle selected Aaron Curry with the fourth overall selection, I forgot what he looked like. I was staring at one of those draft promos unable to recognize Curry for several seconds. Why do the Seahawks have this power of making players invisible?

+ Though they are essential the same receiver, the idea of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin lining up on opposite ends of a formation is enticing. Add in Brian Westbrook spelled by "Shady" LeSean McCoy and the skill positions in Philly might match McNabb's ability to mix short and long seamlessly when he's on his rhythm.

- While Pat White at Miami looks like a good fit, it also looks like the extension of a gimmick. Bill Parcells has a history of extending gimmick until it bursts at the seams (David Meggett, anyone?) rendering White's pro potential capped by his ability to run the Wildcat, not bringing a traditional offense to meet him halfway at his considerable skill set.

+ Bill Polian always drafts like Bill Polian. For instance, NFL.com's write up on the Colts fourth round selection, defensive tackle Terrence Taylor, "Taylor has been a dominating player in the Big Ten. His biggest problem is that he lacks size. He has excellent strength and is a competitive player who plays really hard." Perfect Indianapolis player.

- Mike Brown always drafts like Mike Brown. For instance, NFL.com's write up on the Bengals sixth round selection, running back Bernard Scott, "Many red flags, including his age (25), being kicked off two teams (one in high school, one in college) and several run-ins with police." Hate to say it, but perfect Cincinnati player.

+ In a draft with a ton of solid but not spectacular talent, the Patriots owned the second round, perhaps the best round to own in a such a draft. With four selections, they added a bunch of promising prospects to the bottom of their roster, paving the way for a youth movement next season. Even better, New England parlayed two of their four third round selections into second rounders for 2010.

- With depth issues in several areas, Jacksonville traded up in the third round, giving up 2010's second to New England in the process, and picked a corner from William & Mary one selection after taking a defensive tackle from Temple. That's a lot of pressure the Jaguars are putting on this year and this class.

+ A certain luck seems to follow the post-Vick, post-Petrino Falcons. Last year, Matt Ryan dropped into their laps at three overall, transforming a previously woeful offense into a promising force. This year, Peria Jerry, the most exciting three-technique tackle in college football last year, drops into their laps at twenty-four overall. With a defense heavy draft, the Falcons could continue their ascent up the NFC.

- However some players never find their right fit. TCU safety Stephen Hodge was selected by the Cowboys to be a special teams ace which he should excel at. But Hodge might've been better off being selected by a team that plays the Tampa 2 defense and being moved to weakside linebacker. Hodge was one of the most fearsome hitters in college football last year and plays excellently inside the box. His speed, however, limits his ability to start at safety in the pros. Physically, he's a clone of Derrick Brooks.

+ Gm Ozzie Newsome might get some flack in the media for not addressing some glaring needs like wide receiver, the Ravens patiently restocked cornerstone positions of their team with players that fit their system and can develop into excellent starters. Selecting tackle Michael Oher at twenty-three overall and OLB/DE hybrid Paul Kruger in the second affirmed their identity as well as their depth.

- Sometimes affirming an identity can go a little too far. It's as if Al Davis knows everyone cracks wise about the Raiders valuing speed over all else and is deliberately making a huge show of it to prove who's in charge. Darrius Heyward-Bey wasn't really a reach compared to Davis's latter selections of speedy safety Mike Mitchell and tough guy end Matt Shaughnessy. But just about everyone selected by Oakland timed extremely well in shorts regardless of how they produced in pads.

+ Short on picks from the Jay Cutler trade, yet long on needs in their depth, the Bears wisely traded down from their second round pick and accumulated selections. They were able to address their defensive line depth (prospect Jarron Gilbert and solid Henry Melton) wide receiver depth (well-rounded Joaquin Iglesias and burner Johnny Knox) and add a playmaking cover two corner in DJ Moore.

- NFC North rival Green Bay, however, doubled back on their traditional Draft day strategy for one bold move. GM Ted Thompson's normal MO is stockpiling picks for value, increasing the chances to hit on his selections, and building up competition throughout the team. This year, with the trade of three picks (a second and two third rounders) to New England for the chance to draft linebacker Clay Matthews, the Packers eschewed their patient ways. Along with earlier selection BJ Raji, the Packers might have refashioned their defense with a couple of elite talents. Or they might've tied their fate to a couple lord of the flies talents in a mediocre Draft class.

+ Somehow the Giants managed to hit every need on their roster while never reaching or overreacting. Receivers Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden will compete to replace Plaxico. Linebacker Clint Stintim and tackle William Beatty add depth and potential long-term replacements. Tight end Travis Beckum and back Andre Brown add some solid legs to the offense and its skill position rotation. The rich keep getting richer for a reason.

- Is it just me or is Virginia becoming a factory for NFL read but bloodless offensive tackle play? First, D'Brickashaw Ferguson has all the tools to be great yet still plays like a rookie at times well into his third season. Then, Branden Albert coming out last year would rather play guard than tackle. Now, Eugene Monroe to the Jags potentially becomes the next poster child for the outline of a great left tackle but none of the guts of one.

+ I know, I know. Every year, I seem to get excited for the Texans defense to take control in the AFC South. But, good lord, they finally could've put their line in order. Sure, linebacker Brian Cushing should be a nice complement to DeMeco Ryans inside. But the prospect of Connor Barwin coming off the edge opposite Mario Williams, while both flank Amobi Okoye is what could push this defense to the next level. Should Dunta Robinson stay healthy and perhaps even young tackle Frank Okam develop, Houston might finally leap into the AFC's top tier.

- A minor complaint, but this year's Mr Irrelevant might not be very irrelevant. Kicker Ryan Succop, taken with the 256 selection, might make an impact on a Chiefs team desperate for solid production in the kicking game. Every year, the last pick of the Draft is feted with a parade and banquet in Newport Beach, California, during the summer, a sort of fifteen minutes a fame for a player more likely to slide into sudden obscurity. However, Succop, a strong legged kicker, has a great chance of making a career with the Chiefs, stealing the award from a true Mr. Irrelevant.

The Leadership Of the Blind

2009-04-24T15:48:00.001-04:00

When it comes to this year’s class of left tackles, draftniks are in agreement about two things. One, it’s highly probable six left tackles are selected in the first round. A large number to say the least. And two, this year’s class isn’t all that great.

These two contentions are at odds, perhaps even contradictory. If the available talent is low, why is the demand still high?

Because, next to quarterback, left tackle is the most valuable position on the field, in part due to its protection of that unqualified most important position on the field. At least, according to some.

So it is a question of value… just of the position more than the player.

It’s fitting then that Michael Oher from Ole Miss is in the thick of this contradiction. Oher of course was the central character in Michael Lewis’s seminal book The Blind Side. Lewis chronicled the evolution of the game through the rise in importance of the left tackle position.

Starting with Lawrence Taylor, offenses faced freakish athletes rushing the quarterback’s blind side. The counter move in this game of chess was placing another freakish athlete in the speed rushers path. Tackles had to not only be massive men but display nimble footwork, excellent balance, and ungodly strength.

A rare athlete, indeed. Which in part explains why NFL teams covet even the potential for a quality starting left tackle. But this rarity should underscore also the possibility that most of these prospects won’t transform into dependable starters much less perennial Pro Bowlers.

Teams at the top of the Draft have visions of Joe Thomas and Jonathan Ogden. Yet with this class they might end up with Robert Gallery or Alex Barron.

Out of all the tackles, Andre Smith was the one universally thought to be worth a top three selection when the college season ended. Yet Smith’s horrendous postseason from the bowl game suspension to flight from the Combine to uneven pro day has instilled doubt in scouts about his potential to succeed as a pro.

Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe have apparently filled that overlarge void left by Andre. Yet at no point until the Draft season was well underway were Jason and Eugene considered worthy of a top three selection. Yet there their names are atop many mock drafts and, more importantly, team boards.

And then there is Oher. The epicenter of contradictions. A boy in a man’s body. Born black and poor now spoiled (and deservedly so) by a rich white family. A beheamoth light, even graceful, on his feet. A hard worker that suffers from sloppy technique.

No one emobies the contradictions of this year’s left tackle class quite like Oher.

Yet for all my skepticism I find myself hoping Michael Oher is available when Packers select ninth overall. Sure, the revamped defense needs rush linebackers, the defensive line is razor thin in terms of depth, and the starting corners while great are months away from qualifying for AARP benefits. But an elite anchor to the offensive line remains the more seductive if less sexy idea.

I don’t have a good answer for why I feel this way. The unknowns, the vexing variables, should throw up warning signs all over this potential path. But sometimes tried and true football logic overrides sound football decisions.

This weekend, I’ll be on the scene at the Draft. I recommend checking Throwing Into Traffic where Zac will be live blogging the Saturday selections. Check back Monday for my full Draft write-up. Enjoy the weekend.

Know Your War Rooms, the Rest (Cliff Notes)

2009-04-22T11:43:00.003-04:00

After months of anticipation, the Draft is nearly here. I'm only halfway through the Know Your War Rooms series (check here for parts one and two).

(Blame the delay in this analysis on several things: grilling in the park on a beautiful Saturday, a pesky virus caught from my roommate, laying the groundwork for new and ambitious projects.)

With time running short and much preparation to go before I cover this year's Draft in person, here's Fuhbaw's breakdown of the remaining NFL war rooms in breezy Cliff Notes style.

16. San Diego Chargers

GM AJ Smith is a top talent evaluator. The Chargers are a talent stacked team and Smith, brash bastard that he is, knows it. He also knows San Diego's Super Bowl window won't remain open forever, with LaDainian Tomlinson on his last legs. Add in the defensive struggles when Shawne Merriman missed all of last season, and expect Smith to target a few key players ready to contribute, ones likely to add teeth to his defense or speed to his offense.

17. New York Jets

New coach Rex Ryan has talked a lot about turning the Jets into an aggressive team. New acquisitions Bart Scott, Lito Sheppard, and Jim Leonard reflect that talk. Whether that aggression translates to the Draft (or to the field, for that matter) remains to be seen. The team needs a quarterback and may trade up should Mark Sanchez fall or Josh Freeman linger. The team needs a speedy wideout and depth along the defensive and offensive lines and could trade down to collect valuable picks. However sitting tight at each of their seven picks and selecting the best player available might be the best (non) move.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa 2 may not reign in Tampa much longer. New coach Raheem Morris brought in veteran defensive coordinator Jim Bates who runs a 4-3 scheme based on the old Dallas defenses of the 90s. The major differences between Bates's defense and the Tampa 2 honed by Tony Dungy and Monte Kiffin is a reliance on more size than speed and requiring aggressive man-to-man coverage at the corners. The Buccaneers lack suitable personnel, especially after the veteran purge early in free agency. New GM Mark Dominik even with needs on his offense, one short on playmakers, might be inclined to go defense with his selections.

21. Philadelphia Eagles

The future is always somewhere else in Philly. Andy Reid often goes big, selecting linemen in the early rounds, despite consistent depth there. And Reid also trades down for future picks if he doesn't like the available value. After trading the 28th pick to Buffalo for Jason Peters, the offensive line should be solid. That means the Eagles must target a playmaking receiver or running back at 21, right? Maybe. Or maybe they'll wait until one of their four fifth round picks comes up.

22. Minnesota Vikings

You might think that the only thing this team would need would be a quarterback. The front office would disagree with you. Without the ammo to trade up for Sanchez, the point is fairly moot anyway. And the Vikings could use depth, on the offensive line, in the secondary, and at receiver. The team doesn't shy away from small school prospects, so prepare for a couple head scratchers.

23. New England Patriots

Perhaps the most exciting thing about this draft once we get past the first ten or so rounds? Bill Belichick is holding eleven selections, six among the first 100. That, my friends, is draft day ammunition. The three second rounders in particular will begin to look like gold come Saturday morning. If there's anyone the Patriots covet, they more than likely can get him. It should also be noted that the Panthers, holding a disgruntled Julius Peppers, don't pick until 59, which is after the Patriots would pick four times if their selections remain unmoved.

24. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons and GM Thomas Dimitroff proved adept in last year's Draft at addressing their pressing needs while moving around to select players at good relative value. This year their selections near the end of each round instead of the beginning, which will make that task considerably more difficult. Expect Dimitroff to try as his young playoff team still needs bulk along the defensive line and speed in the secondary. In his first draft, Dimitroff gravitated toward performers from big college programs.

25. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins need a receiver or two. They could also use some more speed at the corners. But my bet is that Bill Parcells, despite the surprise playoff run last year, doesn't believe this team is big enough and talented enough in the trenches to win year in and year out. Don't be surprised if Parcells spends many of Miami's early picks on sizable specimens playing linebacker, defensive end, and guard.

26. Baltimore Ravens
.
In case you missed Judy Battista's article in the New York Times this weekend, let me summarize. GM Ozzie Newsome is patient, thorough, and deliberate. The Ravens know exactly what kind of player they want on their team and construct their prospect board accordingly. Plus, Newsome trains each of his scouts in their scouting system making the chain of communication that much clearer from the scouting reports to the war room discussions. Consequently, the Ravens don't reach and don't overreact.

27. Indianapolis Colts

Team president Bill Polian’s strategy is the ultimate study in best player available. The phrase is tossed around plenty pre-Draft. But during the Draft no team honors its strictures better than the Colts. So we can talk the Colts needing another wide receiver, bigger defensive tackles, and depth at linebacker, but Polian will be content to sit back and select whatever player is rated highest on his board. As far as that board is concerned, Polian values character, intelligence, and production at big-time college programs over combine measurables, extremely to the point of fetishizing undersized, speedy players at just about every position.

29. New York Giants

New York’s transformation from underdog to frontrunner can in large part be attributed to GM Jerry Reese’s continuation of the steady drafting his predecessor Ernie Accorsi started. Like Accorsi, Reese values on-field toughness that lines up with elite measurables. Like Accorsi, Reese scours smaller programs for over-looked talent. Like Accorsi, Reese places premium on pass rushers and road graders. Most observers assume a Draft day trade with Cleveland for Braylon Edwards is imminent. But don’t be surprised if Reese isn’t lying when he says he’s comfortable going forward with Mario Manningham and Domenik Hixon.

30. Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is a motley crew. And coach Jeff Fisher and GM Mike Reinfeldt like it that way. The Titans put top measurables like speed and strength at the top of their board, letting concerns like character take a back seat, happy to jump on any player that slips because of character concerns. Fisher’s long tenure and success affords Tennessee some rooms for mistakes. Fisher gambles that the Titans support network is strong enough to tame an unruly talent. In the case of Albert Haynesworth, yes. Pacman Jones? Not so much.

31. Arizona Cardinals

Last season’s surprise Super Bowl run was a testament to GM Rod Graves’s stellar drafting the past several years. The perennial two-bit franchise finally found the perfect bargain shopper in Graves who wasted no time in restocking the roster with young, elite talent. There have been some misses (Alan Branch and Matt Leinart still ride the pine) but more often than not Graves has hit on productive college players from big-time programs at crucial positions: Larry Fitzgerald, Karlos Dansby, Darnell Dockett, Anquan Boldin, etc. Graves’s two biggest challenges this year come down to a decision to deal disgruntled Boldin for less than the Cardinals’ considerable asking price (currently a 1st and 3rd rounder) and to unearth the same talent as in years prior while selecting at the end of each round.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have built their perennial contender through the Draft. While the Bidwells are considered penny pinchers, the Rooneys are tagged thrifty and brilliant because of their amazing Draft resume. Their offensive and defensive identity is set in stone which makes player evaluation for Pittsburgh that much easier, they know what kind of players are likely to thrive in their systems. Sure, the lines on both sides of the ball are getting a little old, but don’t expect GM Kevin Colbert to select a position because it fits a need. The Steelers aren’t afraid to trade up and down if they’ve targeted a player that can round out their considerably talented roster.

49. Chicago Bears

The Bears Draft? Jay Cutler, for better or worse. It's not like he needs anyone to throw to...

51. Dallas Cowboys

Amazingly, Dallas has eleven selections. Unamazingly, none are in the first round. Roy Williams is essentially their first rounder, and, like many first rounders, Dallas hopes for a big improvement during his second year with the club. Jerry Jones lives for hype and razzle-dazzle. But with so many middle round picks and such a talented starting line-up, the most sense might come from standing pat and selecting quality depth to build up the bottom end of the roster. The Cowboys tend to do well in the middle rounds with prospects from big schools.

59. Carolina Panthers

Losing a game changing defensive end - to trade, free agency, or retirement - has never left a team in good straights. (I'm thinking the Chiefs after Jared Allen, the Eagles after Reggie White, and the Vikings after Alan Page, specifically.) So Carolina would be stupid to give in to Julius Peppers's demands. But with needs throughout their defense, the Panthers might be tempted to realistically shop Peppers in order to land a couple immediate contributors. And as much as I would like Peppers free from the Panthers malaise, I still think its stupid on their part if they do the trade.

Carving Up Baby

2009-04-20T16:33:00.001-04:00

One of the vexing issues affecting how the NFL Draft shakes out this weekend centers not necessarily what each team's identity is. Rather, it comes down to what each team thinks its identity is.

But why say "identity" when we could say "need?"

A lot of pre-Draft analysis gets it wrong because of the focus on team needs. Sure, countless times teams have and will continue to draft players because of a perceived lack on the roster. Most of the upcoming Draft will unfold on need-based decisions.

But what appears a need to the outsider will often not mesh with what a team believes its most pressing need on the roster to be.

This is where the slippery notion of identity comes in.

For years, the New England Patriots eschewed drafting linebackers and corners in the early rounds despite aging and tepid play at both positions. The wholehearted belief in their defensive system, stressing responsibility over playmaking, deemphasized the perceived need for youth at those positions.

Last year, the Pats reversed course and drafted linebackers with their first and third round selections and a corner with their second. Those selections had less to do with the Pats refashioning their identity and more to do with having a roster air tight at nearly every other position. An exception that proves the rule. The Pats drafted so frequently in terms of their perceived identity – defensive linemen, receivers, offensive linemen – they had no practical choice but to draft against type.

On the matter of Draft day strategy, I have much to agree with when Zac at Throwing Into Traffic concludes that identity advancing talent is always a need.

I would like to take that a step further. Consider what the Lions should do with the first overall selection.

In the salary cap era, good teams tend to draft well because their identity is clearly articulated and that identity is wrapped up in success. That makes sense, right? The identity of a successful team is built around good-to-great players and coaches. These proven players and coaches eases the pressure on young players to come in and bear the burden of changing a team’s identity, much less contribute on the field right away.

What Detroit lacked in the Millen years was identity. It’s not that Millen didn’t try to impart a rough and tumble image to the Lions. Rather, he did it in words not deeds, actions irrelevant to the football field rather than action on his free agency and Draft boards.

What Detroit under Jim Schwartz needs and needs quickly is identity. Outside of Calvin Johnson and Julian Peterson, the Lions have nothing save Daunte Culpepper’s raging against the dying light, not a narrative any team wants entertwining mortally with their future.

Complicating this is when it comes to the Draft and identity, there’s a distinct tension. Secrecy and subterfuge are the methods of each war room in the lead-up to the Draft. Yet an identity is something that is claimed, or proclaimed, often loudly when effective.

Thus has it been with the Lions whom everyone assumes Matt Stafford the pick, the Lions hoping to sign him at a slightly discounted price by simultaenously negotiating with Jason Smith and Aaron Curry.

But is Stafford the right selection? Does he reinforce the identity Detroit is attempting to construct? Does he reinforce the identity they should construct?

The Lions need accountability and leadership, alongside talent, more than anything else. It’s not about offense versus defense. It’s not about paygrades.

The notion that Detroit should draft a quarterback number one overall because of the general value of the position in relation to the other 21 on the field is ridiculous and should be deleted from the final accounting. Drafting a quarterback simply because of a abstract value-fit sends the wrong message to the rest of the team and the fans. Ask Raiders fans how JaMarcus Russell is working out.

If there’s any lesson learned from his time at the Titans, Schwartz should know that rare talent shouldn’t be passed up. The selection of Chris Johnson last year was roundly criticized even though he was the best player left on the board when the Titans selected. Johnson, of course, transformed a previously limp offense into something potentially dangerous.

Quite simply, Stafford quarterbacked a Georgia team with an absolute glut of talent yet the Bulldogs failed to even compete for the National Championship, bettered by two teams in their own conference (and I’m not entirely sure Ole Miss wasn’t also better than Georgia by season’s end).

On the other hand, both Jason Smith and Aaron Curry are physical marvels as well as vocal leaders. A left tackle and a middle linebacker are not as rare commodities as an elite quarterback. In there own way they represent as much risk as Stafford does. Despite what Schwartz’s has said, risk isn’t the issue.

If the Lions, however, select Stafford, they take talent that doesn’t further what the team should be or the team the Lions have talked about creating. They cross their fingers and hope for a quick fix instead of assembling the most talented roster possible (Curry) or emphasizing a game changing nastiness (Smith).

The team can afford to take chances on talent. Yes, they need a quarterback of the future. What they can't afford to take is a chance on a player doesn't fit the identity they're striving for.

Stay Tuned

2009-04-16T08:05:00.004-04:00

Stay tuned. There's going to be some newness around here in the coming weeks.

I should be all out prepping for the NFL Draft. The home stretch nears, to unfurl the sports clichés. Thrusts and feints abound. Risers and sliders rise and slide.

I should be plowing through my Know Your War Room series. It's difficult and intense work pouring through past drafts seeking common themes, themes that match a team's successful or failed bid for identity.

And while difficult that work is ultimately rewarding and, more importantly, I believe, worthwhile.

But my mind is setting course for different destinations, not bobbing to the murmuring rhythms of pro football's offseason.

I think a lot about this format and this forum I've labored in, sometimes lovingly, sometimes not, for close to two years. (Christ, has it really been two years?)

Often I've surprised myself, no so much with the substance of my beliefs but the conviction of some or the lack thereof of others.

There is something alternately harrowing and cathartic about turning inward and prodding the head and heart critically for the true measure of your ideas and dreams and nightmares. So you love football – but why? So you think “x” - but “z”?

For me, the process of blogging has been as much about clarifying my ideas on the game as it has been about the game itself. This clarification is a minor subplot – not the dominant narrative. When I first tepidly began Fuhbaw I often joked that it comprised my coursework. The joke continued on a muted level until today with repeated metaphors to basic math or references to school supplies (the Notebook posts, for instance).

In every sense, Fuhbaw has always been a training ground, my own exclusive academy. I've found that focus useful, rewarding, but ultimately a little too exclusive, a little too inward looking.

When I first gave myself over to the internet (trust me, very late for a person of my generation) I sensed a thrilling but obscure glut of possibilities. My first internet love was the Spark. Does anyone remember the Spark, its true content now relegated to the internet wayback machine? One of those weird shining lights that simply wrote its own rules in the service of pointless absurdity (“breathable, deadly: pantaloons”).

I've never really done the whole two feet at once into the future thing. I'm a cautious and deliberate sort (note the use of both “cautious” and “deliberate” in that sentence). I think. I consider. I set aside. I obsess. I mull. I agonize. And I try not to subject the people in my life to this process.

So is it with blogging and me. Me as a blogger is me cast against type. I continue to be truly amazed at how rigid the format is. Take even the liberation theology/revolutionary manifesto/prophetic wail of Free Darko: formality abounds.

Boundaries are a virtue. They create space for inspiration to flourish. But not every boundary is suited for every inspiration.

Does this read like a letter of resignation? A middle-school break-up note passed in-between classes? A eulogy for a miscarriage?

This is none of those things.

This is a new beginning (there's those clichés again).

I don't want to say too much just yet as I'm in the early stages of this revolution (think “cycle” not “Bolshevik”). Suffice to say, what I will offer will be sportswriting fuller in concept, in content, and in completion. This isn't merely good intentions. This is a promise, more to you than to myself. Thus far, the promises have primarily been to myself. It's time to change that up.

Okay, Fuhbaw will be back all over the Draft beat shortly. Apologies for the blip in the feed. But the outcome should more than make up for the brief broadcast interruption.

Define Gutsy?

2009-04-14T16:14:00.002-04:00

At moment in which the NFL and its fans are the most starry-eyed, the dreams of the Draft still weaving their finger-crossed hopes, I find myself vaguely recalling dreams from which we've woken up.

Or at least the news that Byron Leftwich latching on with Tampa and Daunte Culpepper slimming down in Detroit has me remembering a time when both represented a new if slightly unnerving development in our idea of the prototypical quarterback.

I am, of course, talking about the fat man as quarterback.

Football has no shortage of exceedingly large men. Size has been a prized rarity since the sport's earliest days. The game with its neurotic concerns over accountability - you take that man, I got this guy - has always had a place for a rhinoceros who can occupy two or three opposing players, freeing up others to run unabated with or to the ball.

But as some point, as the game sped up and a rare size became bigger and beefier, size developed skill, too. The myriad hand fights a defensive tackle and offensive guard must wage underscores just how intricate the big man positions have become at the highest level.

Despite the developing skill of line play, however, big men were for the most part relegated to those same positions, defensive tackle and end, center, guard, and offensive tackle. There were, of course, a couple exceptions to the rule - Ironhead Heyward, anyone? - but for the most part size meant line play from an early age.

I remember the moment when the notion of a prototypical quarterback really took hold. Drew Bledsoe was supposed to be everything a quarterback can be. Six foot five. Two hundred and forty muscular pounds. Cannon arm. Limited mobility but superior reach. Pocket passing was shortly to be perfected by these rare creatures.

It was the early 90s and I felt a little put out that these gangling monsters would make quarterbacks like the Packers' Brett Favre or 49ers' Steve Young obsolete. It seemed conceivable at that moment that size would price 6'2" quarterbacks with moxie out of the future. (And Young especially while listed at 6'2" couldn't have been more than 6' exactly.)

The revolution never really came though. Sure, Peyton Manning's experienced wild success while encased in the rudiments of that prototypical frame (save the less-than-chiseled pecs). And Tom Brady was a string bean upon entering the NFL, building his slight frame into something more. But the Drew Bledsoe's came and went. Sure, Joe Flacco appears to be on the verge of promising career. But how does Carson Palmer's future look?

For the most part, the monsters never really stormed the village. The league's best passing veteran last season was smurfy Drew Brees. (And, no, I wouldn't say that to his face.)

Somewhere along the way, though, another development in the ideal quarterback sprang forth, the linemen-sized quarterback, one who could ward off the blows of defensive ends like King Kong and fighter planes.

The rational was somewhat sound. The rarest skill set belonged to the quarterback. No matter if a player has the size to the man the interior of the line, if he can run an offense with a big arm, place him behind center not at center.

In 2004, both Daunte Culpepper and Byron Leftwich had their statistically best seasons. Culpepper was a credible MVP candidate even in a year when Peyton Manning broke the touchdown record. Leftwich had the Jaguars on the verge of a playoff berth with his tough but immobile play.

Put the rhino at quarterback! Watch him bulldoze any would-be rushers. Hell, the success of Culpeppers and to a lesser degree Leftwich probably is directly responsible for Jared Lorenzen, the Pillbury Throwboy himself, being drafted.

Yet, just as quickly as it seemed the prototypes would truly become monsters, Culpepper and Leftwich toppled, both felled by leg injuries, robbing of them of their mobility. Lorenzen has probably ate himself out of the leauge. And JaMarcus Russell is on the cusp of a make-or-break season just two years after signing a fittingly ridiculously large rookie contract.

Only Ben Roethlisberger has experienced any sustained success as in the rhino-at-QB model. Consider, too, that he's only posted one truly elite season and been surrounded by a stellar supporting cast and ferocious defense.

I don't know how Leftwich will do at the Buccaneers. I don't know how Culpepper will fare in Detroit. I thought both showed plenty of promise last season in limited action. But like the weight these big guys carry, I'm inclined to think that the performance of a big QB fluctuates much like said QB's bathroom scale. The can be terrifying... and terrifyingly inconsistent.

Know Your War Rooms, Selecting 11-15

2009-04-13T07:04:00.005-04:00

In the Draft, the middle of the first round is where things generally start to get interesting or hectic, depending on your point of view.

As the amount of guaranteed dollars drops and the level of talent slowly thins, teams are more likely to trade up for a coveted prospect or down to net additional picks.

Probably more than anywhere else in the Draft, the consequences of these trades and selections in the tens shape a team's immediate fortunes. Consider too many of these teams exist in the league's middle class, going 7-9 to 9-7 the previous season, perhaps only a player or two away from reaching the playoffs.

Projections often fail mightily in guessing just how exactly these trades will reorder the first round. All the more important to know your war rooms. (Part one here.)

Let's continue with the second part of Fuhbaw's ~~five~~ three part analysis of each of the 32's war rooms and their tendencies. ~~Again, I'm discussing each team as their original draft slot comes up before trades (though all trades are noted).~~ Onward!

11. Buffalo Bills

Bill general manager Russ Brandon has been on the job for a little over a year. And in that time he's brought a more aggressive direction than predecessor, coaching legend Marv Levy. Levy was supposed to right the ship, which he did. But his moves were cautious, his management uncomplicated. Brandon has pushed further in the Draft and free agency than Levy while still retaining some of his conservative ways.

Case in point, Brandon's first Draft with the Bills netted more prospects from small schools, something generally avoided under Levy's guidance. But premium was still placed on players with consistent college production, a hallmark of Levy's tenure. Expect Brandon to stand pat, not moving up or down, to make his selections. The Bills traditionally don't engage actively in the smokescreens and shell games that some teams do in the lead up to the Draft. Brandon, however, will take measured risks on character, whether it's James Hardy in the Draft or Terrell Owens in free agency. If the stars align on a productive player with a few but no glaring red flags, expect Brandon to take a risk.

The real question about the Bills is whether the 6-2 start or the 1-7 finish is the real team. Losing Derrick Dockery to free agency and the specter of another long Jason Peters holdout indicate needs along the offensive line. Inconsistent to nonexistent pass rush indicate needs along the defensive line. And while their skill positions especially in the defensive backfield and wide receiver appear solid, playmakers anywhere would be welcome for this middling team.

12. Denver Broncos

As if new coach Josh McDaniels and new GM Brian Xanders didn't have a big enough job in rebuilding an atrocious defense, with the outcome of the Jay Cutler saga and trade, they must reconstruct the team's most important position on offense as well. In losing a franchise signal caller, Denver netted a trove of Draft day riches from Chicago. Of course, those riches won't buy McDaniels and Xanders anything but a ticket out of Colorado unless they hit on their several first day picks between this and next year.

Like any newness, we lack a long track record to discern tendencies of the current front office. Xanders worked under former Broncos GM Ted Sundquist and coach Mike Shanahan. Shanahan directing the war room for the most part wasn't afraid of character concerns and didn't shy away from focusing solely on team needs, occasionally reaching with his picks or trading up for a targeted player. McDaniels of course apprenticed under Bill Belichick perhaps leading us to believe, in tandem with the Cutler drama, the new Broncos will place high grades on unselfish play, versatility, and work ethic.

But, like I said, absent a track record, that's purely conjecture. There certainly no shortage of needs. Quarterback might seem the most pressing, leading many to believe a trade up is possible should Mark Sanchez or Matt Stafford tumble. Let's not forget the mess on the defense that in large part led to Shanahan's dismissal. It wouldn't surprise in the least if the Broncos spent most of their ten picks on defensive linemen and linebackers, even all of their five selections in the first three rounds. Adjusting the identity of the team 180 degrees into a defensively dominating group might soothe in part the raw feelings at the loss of Jay Cutler.

13. Washington Redskins

Are the Redskins a borderline playoff team on the cusp awaiting a stellar Draft class to push them over the brink? Or is the rapid aging of their best players setting the franchise up for a precipitous drop off sooner rather than later? Sporting a mixture of youth and experience with razor thin depth, Washington is an ever shifting identity crisis. Talented enough when healthy to challenge any squad yet unfocused enough to succumb again to any squad. Owner Daniel Snyder and VP Vinny Cerrato are the counterpoints to the consistent Dan Rooneys and Bill Polians of the NFL world. Nowhere is this more evident than on Draft weekend.

As far as the Draft is concerned, Washington embodies the small sample size problem. Joe Gibbs stabilized the franchise to a great degree in his three years if unable return it to the Promised Land. Before new head coach Jim Zorn's first season, Washington selected ten players, the most by the team since 2002. In the past seasons, the Redskins burned Draft picks in trades, handcuffing their ability to inexpensively shore up depth. Usually so short on picks, Washington's front office has concentrated on needs and performers at big-time college programs. Despite last year's relative glut of picks (accomplished by trading down early) the Redskins continued to focus on needs, selecting three receivers - two wideouts and a tight end - with their first three selections while heading off the beaten path in late round selections sifting for overlooked gems.

A familiar refrain of Snyder-owned Redskins runs, they don't lack for needs just Draft picks. And again this year, that's the case. With only five selections, and only one on the first day, Washington is badly aged along the offensive and defensive lines. Plus, the linebacking corps desperately needs more consistency and depth to keep apace in the NFC East. How much ground they can make up on Draft weekend is questionable with so few picks and might be dependent on trading down.

14. New Orleans Saints

Save a shiny statistical season by Drew Brees, the Saints all-in approach last season netted no sudden improvements. In time, the trade for Jeremy Shockey and Jonathan Vilma may appear big pieces of a championship puzzle. Right now, however, those trades' terms pilfered New Orleans's 2009 Draft while leaving many of the same problems unanswered. The main problem is, of course, how to fix an inconsistent at best defense.

In coach Sean Payton's first couple drafts with New Orleans, the Saints targeted small school prospects with one or two elite measurables, hoping to uncover diamonds in the rough. Sometimes it worked (Marques Colston, Jahri Evans). Sometimes it didn't (Usama Young, David Jones). Last year, Payton did an about face, focusing on players from power conference. It's too soon to tell if the sea change paid off. And it's difficult to tell if Payton will continue that strategy.

What's not difficult to see is the myriad needs on the roster. Defense remains a concern. Playmakers at linebacker, depth along the defensive line, skill in the secondary all constitute needs. As productive as the offense has been, depth in the trenches is shaky and could be addressed. And the consistency in the kicking game is a concern for a team with playoff aspirations. With only four picks, however, the Saints will have to trade down from their first round selection to afford themselves ample opportunity to address these needs.

15. Houston Texans

While many considered Jacksonville the most disappointing team in the AFC South last season, I expected greater things from Houston. Quite simply, two of their players are among the elite in the league while playing crucial and difficult to fill positions. And around Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, the Texans have drafted solid starters like DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels, and Steve Slaton. However, there's a pie-in-the-sky aspect to this Texans squad that continues to frustrate. Will Amobi Okoye really become the Luigi to Williams's Super Mario? Will Matt Schaub become something more than accurate and injury prone? Will anyone ever step up among their safeties to stop a big play at a crucial moment?

Coach Gary Kubiak and GM Rick Smith migrated from Denver three years ago and have upgraded the talent of a team that was once another expansion laughing stock, more 70s Buccaneers than 90s Panthers. They've focused on the less glamorous positions early in the Draft, the linemen and linebackers, while zeroing in on measurables in skill position players in the middle and later rounds. Like the Bills, the Texans are another team that's relatively quiet on Draft day, forgoing moving up or down, preferring to stand pat and make their selections according to their board.

While the high expectations for their defense last year didn't pan out, Houston may not consider the talent on that side of the ball as dire as some outside observers paint it to be. Sure, the corner and line play needs more consistency, but they have a number of young players on the roster with which they hope to see marked improvement. The more pressing needs are at playmakers, whether that's at outside linebacker, wide receiver, or safety. Depth along the offensive line and in the backfield are likely to be addressed. But given their overall solid but not spectacular roster, the Texans shouldn't stray too far from selecting the best player available regardless of need.

The Joker's Deck

2009-04-10T14:34:00.001-04:00

Apologies for the delay in commentary. It’s been a hell of a week in my non-football life.

First, receivers and the Draft. I suppose there’s no more fun position in the league to debate. But it’s uncanny how receivers always become hot fodder for trade talks in the lead-up to the Draft.

Déjà vu. Again, we dream potentially new and fabulous destinations for Chad Ocho Cinco née Johnson and Anquan Boldin. This year’s hot stove talk is percolating over Braylon Edwards as well.

Each situation has its points of departure. But it’s the similarity that puzzles me.

Anquan’s deal is over a lack of deal, a new one anyone that puts him close to pay parity with fellow wideout Larry Fitzgerald.

Braylon’s deal is a two parter: 1) another potential victim in Eric Mangini’s Cleveland campaign against talent, and 2) a foci for criticism after an inconsistent at best season during an awful Browns season.

Chad’s deal is, uh, as far as I can tell a function of Chad being Chad and ‘Nati being ‘Nati. Ocho Cinco’s transformation from brilliant court jester to raving lunatic happened so quickly and so completely. The constant however was the Bengals allowing their team to bleed through free agency and slide further into irrelevance.

Each of these three receivers is at a different point in his career. Each shoulders differing levels of responsibility for being on the trading block. Each comes with his own amount of baggage for a potential new destination.

The similarity? Each of their teams is stupid to trade these three receivers unless they receive a ridiculous offer.

That being the case, boredom aside, why do we annually talk up the potential blockbuster trades of wide receivers? Is it because Randy Moss pulled the receiver diva coup to get out of the Black Hole? If top flight receiving talent is a rarity, why can we conceive of it given up so easily?

The wide receiver diva archetype is so ingrained that we hardly question how an individual situation comes to pass. Receivers that reach an impasse with their teams over money or playing time or performance are instantly fit to that archetype.

Despite any characterizations to the contrary, I do believe in the primacy of team. Football is after all a team sport. It’s beauty comes when all these sundry parts are whirring at top speeds with clockwork precision.

I don’t know if the position naturally sets itself against the team, isolated on the wings yet in the spotlight. I don’t know if that spotlight attracts the more egomanical among athletes. I don’t know if a receiver’s isolation on field works against the interdependency a receiver’s success has on every other moving part in the machine, that final piece to push a play to completion.

But I do know that there’s an eerie intersection at work when we imagine jettisoning a receiver who fits the archetype in the lead up to the Draft.

The Draft is about renewing an idea of our team, with some exceptions, no matter the previous season’s record or current roster. The important word there is “team.” In over-simplified football psychology, the receiver is often the one that tugs at the team’s cohesion.

No matter the worth of a talented and realized receiver on the field, when our teams exist mostly as ideas, receivers fitted into the archetype become expendable or transferable. That realm of ideas is a dangerous place to map out reality.

How did that work out for Oakland?

Second, well, I don’t have a second. Just go to Throwing Into Traffic for more Draft talk. You’ve heard the name, but Zac goes beyond the skinny on what makes Darius Heyward-Bey the most intriguing receiving talent in this Draft. Listen up, people, this is the truth.

Burn Your Passport

2009-04-07T17:05:00.001-04:00

It was Super Bowl 39. The Eagles were driving in fits and starts down the field. They were down ten points but it felt like it could have been a hundred.

What should have been a thrilling contest felt dull and lifeless. My friends munched on miniburgers and downed beers, already amusing themselves with chatter about surf rock and Space Ghost references. I stared at the TV trying to find something to love about the game.

I knew the Patriots scored 24 points, I just wasn’t sure how. Tom Brady dinked and dunked my memories into oblivion. The exacting nature of Bill Belichick’s disciplined defense sucked the air out of every Eagles drive before the seemingly inevitable Donovan McNabb interception.

I felt numb. When did football turn into this?

The Patriots dynasty, confirmed that night, was built entirely on storylines that played well to the crowd and reducing the game to a series of scribbles on a whiteboard.

One of the reasons I started Fuhbaw, started obsessing critically about football, applying ideas I've stumbled across in the course of my life to a sport that I thought I left behind, is the degree to which I hate the Patriots Way.

It's not that I hate the New England Patriots per se. After years of being a middling franchise, their jump to elite status is encouraging for the bulk of the league's middle class. And Tom Brady's abilities despite his abilities is an entertaining if not entirely too saccharine narrative. Plus, the emphasis on team in a team sport – which if one pays too close attention to the commentary can seem like anything but – speaks to hallowed football principles.

Yet those virtues disguise vices.

(Show me a pre-Randy Moss highlight reel of the Patriots that doesn’t end in a field goal.)

There’s a couple things going on here. Belichick’s brilliant game plans deceive opponents, transforming deficiencies in talent into perceived strengths. A great coaching job to be sure. But we watch sport to witness superior athletic talent on display, not to be duped by the illusion of talent.

To accomplish this, the coaching staff squashes the individual identities of the talent that they do possess. Randy Moss is a notable exception (and perhaps the only reason I can watch the Pats without cringing). It’s one thing to enforce the team concept for the betterment of the team and thereby the betterment of the sport. It’s quite another to strip talent of its uniqueness to maintain an illusion.

It’s the four yard outs and draw after draw. It’s the two-gap responsibilities and cover three shell. It’s bend but don’t break. It’s “just do your job” screamed on the sidelines.

All this translates into boring, belabored football. The victories over such football evoke relief more than triumph, freedom from the low level hum of mind numbing precision.

I feel like I'm constantly tipping my cap to Belichick's evil genius exploits. As a fan, at some base level, one simply desires success, perhaps at whatever cost. But the cost is important.

Yes, we watch our teams and hope they win. But if our teams lose we don’t necessarily walk away with nothing. We still witnessed. We were there. We can remember the beautiful catch improbably plucked out of the air. We can remember perhaps heroics in defeat. We can concede defeat to the superior team or the lucky team.

Why wasn’t there more outrage over Spygate? Because Spygate didn’t change anything. It just confirmed what we already knew to be true. Belichick’s Patriots steal from the sport what isn’t rightfully theirs.

Defensive signals. Victory. Doesn’t matter.

I know this may sound like a diatribe. Perhaps it is. I don’t mean it any outsized outraged way. Belichick is paid to do what he does and he does it remarkably well.

He’s also a fantastic villain. Bloodless, arrogant, intelligent, and frumpy. He’s no hero for sure… but he could be an anti-hero.

This is all to say I won’t be joining my man Zac at Throwing Into Traffic in his measured dreams about Patriots West.

Zac makes several great points. And the language of his dream could come to pass. Matt Cassel in KC and Josh McDaniels in Denver make the AFC West an instantly more interesting division.

But I cannot root for this spread of the Patriots Way. And I may not have to rail against it. Watching Romeo Crennel blow down his house of cards in Cleveland and Eric Mangini jealously guard his toy train set in New York, it became abundantly clear New England's success isn't easily duplicated.

McDaniels could break that mold, he after all opened up the Patriots offense and realized a space for Randy Moss to flourish. But considering the horrendous start McDaniels is off to thus far I can't express any confidence either way.

What I do know, whether it's a culture war or a castle storming, pitchfork in hand I know what side I'm on.

Know Your War Rooms, Selecting 1-10

2009-04-06T16:18:00.004-04:00

The NFL Draft is suffuse with variables. So much is possible. So much dependent on what happens as the event unfolds.

The cumulative effect is a bit disorienting.

It's impossible to know if the Seahawks will select a tackle or quarterback or wide receiver in the first round. Teams guard their scouting reports and draft boards like Fort Knox.

But what can't be guarded is a front office's track record. Patterns come to the surface from history. In part, a team's philosophy of roster building emerges from their prior selections.

While analysis of a front office's draft history won't lead us to absolutes, it can paint a fuller picture of the likely scenarios than a simple mock draft. It's not just team needs, it's a matter of style because in the end the Draft is about a team's identity more than anything else.

This analysis will be a ~~three~~ ~~five~~ three parter with a look at each team ~~in their initial drafting position before trades shifted the order (and portends to even more on draft day).~~ With that, let's better know your war rooms for the league's 32 teams.

1. Detroit Lions

The fact that Detroit's war room is an unknown is a probably a good thing given the franchise's flirtation with futility this decade. General Manager Martin Mayhew is a holdover from the Millen days, but remains highly regarded despite the association. Coach Jim Schwartz brings his deliberate and creative approach from Tennessee, a team that's drafted reasonably well under Jeff Fischer, Pacman Jones notwithstanding.

With no past drafts to scrutinize, only the offseason's myriad free agent moves gives a glimpse at the team Schwartz and Mayhew want to construct. Obviously, the new Lions value size and strength, cutting undersized and underperforming players like Mike Furrey, Shaun Cody, and Leigh Bodden, while adding Bryant Johnson, Grady Jackson, and Phillip Buchanon not to mention Julian Peterson.

If Schwartz sticks close to the lessons learned during his time at the Titans, expect the Lions to place value on top measurables in place of unquantifiable notions like character or moxie. While some speculate Detroit's interest in Jason Smith represents a bargaining tactic with Matthew Stafford, don't be surprised if the Lions truly target Smith with the first pick. He's a top athlete with rare size. So far it's been Schwartz's mission to make the Lions bigger so they can get better. Expect more of the same draft weekend.

2. St Louis Rams

The Rams are a difficult franchise to figure out. They've had success in seasons past but have been an unmitigated disaster of late. Add in the likelihood that the team is still up for sale and the Rams appear to be on shaky ground. Yet new GM Billy Devaney made a truly inspired hire with new coach Steve Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo had the pick of his jobs last season but rebuffed interest from the Redskins and others to await a better job. On the surface, the Rams don't seem to provide Spagnuolo with the security he sought.

That said, the Rams aren't without talent. Steven Jackson, Oshiomogho Atogwe, and Chris Long are solid building blocks. Devaney has been with the Rams for a couple years, it's unclear what hand he's had in the draft room up to this point. The inconsistent drafts the past few years directly lead to the club's general lack of identity. Will Adam Carriker and Chris Long make for a formidable defensive front? Or will the team waste their talents on poor schemes and tepid team play?

There's hope that Spagnuolo carries over his hellacious defense from New York. To do so, the Rams will need to draft for strength and speed since they lack for it on the roster. The Giants have transformed into a success by constantly focusing on pass rush. Targeting linebackers and edge rushers throughout the draft would be a big step to installing Spagnuolo's defense. Of course, cutting Orlando Pace is a clear indication of St Louis's intentions, especially with the second overall pick. Commentators have penciled in the top tackles Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe with certainty. After that, it's up to Devaney and Spagnuolo to create a tougher and deeper team, something lacking from their drafts of late.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

We can all mourn the loss of Herm Edwards the quote machine, but Chiefs fans won't miss the horrible in-game gaffes and abysmal clock management. Fans are not likely to miss Carl Peterson's wildly inconsistent drafting either. While Peterson's 2008 draft still has the potential of being a team defining class, hopes rest with new GM Scott Pioli turning Kansas City into New England West.

Obviously the Patriots loom large over the new Chiefs. Pioli got his quarterback in Matt Cassel from his old team. And Pioli's success in assisting Bill Belichick construct the Patriots offers hints about the direction the Chiefs will take. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. New England's made some notable misses in the past few seasons. They haven't assembled a great class since 2005 and have leaned heavily on free agency to shore up skill positions, especially in the secondary and at wide receiver. For a franchise with such considerable success, my hesitations may sound like quibbling, but it's important to separate myth from reality.

A good indication of Pioli's direction could be how he helped build the Patriots in the early part of the decade, mainly, focusing on rare intersections of size and strength. Pioli and Belichick nabbed linemen early and often while building the Patriots. Pioli also focuses on players from big time programs with consistent on field production while ignoring workout warriors. He also places a high value on football people, sons of players and coaches, who can fulfill roles. Provided new head coach Todd Haley can refrain from tearing the roster apart, expect Pioli to craft a savvy tough team in KC.

4. Seattle Seahawks

My buddy DJ Noid has been waiting for this day, the draft where Seattle finally has a top pick so they can nab an elite talent that's eluded them drafting near the end of the first round year after year. No doubt, Seattle wasn't as bad as their 4-12 record suggested. Still, there's no shortage of holes on the roster starting with quarterback and the offensive line, once considered strengths of the team. I love Hass for whatever reason (photo in the banner no small point) but it's unclear whether he can regain his Pro Bowl form.

GM Tim Ruskell is an odd one. On the one hand, he projects a measured approach to the Seahawks rosters, re-signing proven veterans before they hit the market, drafting high character players with solid college production. On the other hand, Ruskell will drop mega contracts on players, whether a wise investment or not. Add in how badly he fucked up the Steve Hutchinson transition tag fiasco, and it's tough to know which Ruskell is the real one.

That said, Ruskell's draft record is remarkably consistent. Ruskell likes players from big schools in power conferences with solid stat sheets. He doesn't get hung up on measurables or workout warriors. He values production over potential. In essence, the Seahawks secondary is very short. With picks near the top of each round this year, Ruskell should have a chance at players with higher ceilings. And with the Seahawks needing help at quarterback, tackle, safety, running back, and corner, he'll have no shortage of options.

5. Cleveland Browns

While I don't know if the Jets should have fired Eric Mangini, it's unclear if he's up to the task of remaking (again) the Cleveland Browns. During his time in New York, he unearthed a few nice starters and role players in the Draft. But when he's not alienating his current stars Mangini will have to transform a defense that's never lived up to expectations.

With new GM George Kokinis, the ManKok (that's never going to get old, is it?) need to bolster a tepid pass rush, deepen a depleted secondary, nab some pass catchers, and settle on a signal caller. Oh, and they need to catch up to the Ravens and Steelers, too.

In drafts with the Jets, Mangini focused on elite measurables like speed in corners and rushers, strength in linemen and backers. He's also placed a high value on versatility, as evidenced by players like Brad Smith and Leon Washington. With only five picks this year, the Browns might need to actively trade down on Draft weekend to address their glaring weaknesses. The war room in New York that Mangini was a part of wasn't afraid of trades, often moving up to select a targeted player. For a team short on depth, being short draft picks doesn't help.

6. Cincinnati Bengals

Let the jokes fly. Cincy hasn't necessarily done terribly on Draft weekend. It's just that they've ignored issues like character and chemistry while they've nickled and dimed promising starters out of town. Just when you think the Bengals can't take a chance on a troubled talent, they turn around and pluck the longest rap sheet they can find. It's bizarre. The Brown family definitely marches to the beat of their own drummer. And I don't know if that's a good thing.

Beyond the convictions, other patterns emerge from recent Cincy drafts. They focus on solid performers from big time schools early in the Draft. Many early picks have been spent on defense these past few years. Keith Rivers was an inspired pick as was Domata Peko. But the Bengals still have needs on that side of the ball.

And despite drafting receivers to eventually replace Chad OchoCinco and the now departed TJ Houshmandzadeh, the Bengals couldn't go wrong selecting one from this year's talented class. Should they want Carson Palmer to remain upright, depth along the offensive line could be a key to this Draft. While I still think Palmer's overrated, the team seems committed to him. Likely Palmer and the Bengals' fortunes are intertwined.

7. Oakland Raiders

It's no secret what the Raiders value in prospects: speed. Al Davis's long draft resume reads like the roll of a track meet. Basically what I wrote last year still applies:

Oakland, the Black Hole, Al Davis's age - combine randomly and insert joke here. No doubt the Raiders have struggled the past five seasons. And part of those struggles are due to drafting inconsistently, in addition to poor coaching, dysfunctional management, and aging or injured veterans. Davis continues to head up the war room and despite his foibles of late he still cares passionately about building a winner in Oaktown. There is of course a type of player that typifies the Raiders, one they seek out in the draft. Cocky, swaggering... more tough than technician. Davis prides himself on being able to tell an athlete just by looking at them. Character concerns that might scare off other teams mean less in the final accounting for Davis and the Raiders. Plus, Davis isn't afraid to gamble on injury history.

While Davis's fetish for speed and top measurables constitute a considerable known, his maverick ways make his decisions difficult to predict. The Raiders need linemen and receivers and more depth in the secondary. But Oakland has never been a needs team. Davis will select the best players to his mind and let the chips fall where they may. The thought of Michael Crabtree being on the same team as Darren McFadden is seductive. Yet it's unclear if Davis even puts Crabtree on his board. One thing you can definitely say about the Raiders, they make Draft weekend interesting.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars

I'll never understand how the Jaguars got as talented as they are by drafting so inconsistently. And, after this year, we'll know if the fault lies with coach Jack Del Rio or now former GM Shack Harris. The Jaguars are seduced by top measurables sometimes selecting players late who haven't seen the football field much because of an excellent vertical or good three cone drill time.

In general, the Jaguars have gone directly after their needs whether that means trading down a few spots for Reggie Nelson or trading up for Derrick Harvey. The 2008 class was mostly a disaster, Harvey and fellow pass rusher Quentin Groves looking out of sorts much of the season. The team still has myriad needs in the interior of both lines as well as in the secondary and receiving corps.

Currently, Jacksonville is throwing out a huge smokescreen over potentially drafting a QB. It's unclear if they're simply hoping to entice another team to move up to the eighth overall selection or if there's another player they're hoping will be on the board when they select (Crabtree anyone?) or both. I know David Garrard has an awful statistical season last year, but the man was running for his life from day one. To keep apace with the Titans and Colts, the Jags will need more weapons and to become bigger and tougher in the trenches. However, he goes about it, you can bet Jack Del Rio knows this.

9. Green Bay Packers

Perhaps I shouldn't be allowed to analyze my Packers drafting. It's the one area where I without qualification adore the team's strategy, with minimal deviation from the company line. I can criticize GM Ted Thompson for head scratchers in free agency or coach Mike McCarthy for boneheaded play calls. But how the Packers draft is at once a thing of beauty in its elegant simplicity while being as dizzying as a whirlwind in its operation.

Thompson is a gifted talent evaluator but understands the limitations in predicting success in the NFL based on scouting. Instead of standing pat on Draft weekend and crossing his fingers as each turn comes up, Thompson constantly trades down to acquire more selections thus increasing the likelihood of hitting by increasing the number of players he brings in during a draft class. The strategy have transformed the Packers from an aging squad into a youthful one with a bright future and good cap number (please don't go away, salary cap).

It's such a simple and logical idea. It's also fittingly self effacing for the low key, tight lipped Thompson. With the selections he makes, Thompson excels at scouting wide receiver talent so much so that it's not a need in the least. Thompson though takes the highest player rated on his board regardless of need, why the Packers selected receiver Jordy Nelson with their first selection last year. In terms of needs, linemen and linebackers are paramount, but it would be out of character for Thompson to reach for a player. He does set up his board a little differently than most, placing high emphasis on character and on-field production, which leads some to criticize his selections as reaches. And I'm pretty sure Thompson is completely comfortable with people thinking whatever they want to about his drafts.

10. San Francisco 49ers

The Mike Nolan experiment is over. The Mike Singletary experience is proving to be a far weirder one than anyone ever dreamed. Looking through the last four years of San Fran drafts is chilling. Is there anyone on that team besides Patrick Willis and Frank Gore?

What direction the 49ers go with the tenth pick will provide a huge indication about the direction Singletary wants to take the team. Will he go big and grab the best rush backer available? Or will he take Mark Sanchez if he falls to the tenth pick and try to add firepower to a flaccid offense? Will select the best playmaking receiver to complement Vernon Davis?

There's no shortage of needs. It certainly says something that Singletary was able to squeeze some quality wins out of such a talent poor squad. In essence, I wouldn't be surprised if he focuses the majority of his draft on the offense and defensive lines in an effort to get bigger in the relatively shrimpy NFC West. I think Singletary believes he can get by on Shaun Hill if his defense plays with enough fire and Gore plays keep away. The 49ers might emulate the Chicago Bears teams Singletary excelled for in the 80s and early 90s.

Cuddles the Bear

2009-04-03T12:17:00.004-04:00

Some solutions are just so obvious, make far too much sense, that collectively we look right past them.

I don't know if the fault lies with the mundane answer being too transparent? Or simply too boring?

Whatever the reason, from time to time, the route formed by the shortest distance between "A" and "B" sometimes surprises in its forehead slapping simplicity.

Case in point: Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears.

Everyone knew the Bears were interested. Everyone knew coach Lovie Smith has edged closer and closer to the end of his post-Super Bowl grace period. Everyone knew the Broncos were short on leverage except the wide interest in Cutler. Everyone knew Chicago quarterbacking with few exceptions has ranged from less than stellar to downright tragic these past couple decades. Everyone knew the price.

Hell, Cutler even grew up a Bears fan.

But everyone wrote off the Bears because of their penny pinching, because of their defense fetish, because of their distaste for flair.

Never underestimate the straight lines desperation draws.

Yesterday I mentioned Cutler represents a potential paradigm shift for some teams, Seattle was the specific example. And on the surface Cutler's mere presence on the Bears roster represents a new development, incredible resources poured into the game's most important position.

While the Cutler Rush might represent a Chicago paradigm shift from a personnel standpoint (debatable considering they've spent two first rounders on quarterbacks in the last decade), in terms of their offense, it's more of a lock than it appears at first blush.

Alternating between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton these past four seasons, the Bears have simply asked their offense to not fuck it up. They'll ask Cutler to do more, to put up points, not just play keep away while the defense takes a breather.

The offense might appear different on the aesthetic level, the underlying ideas in operation will be much the same from Denver to Chicago, from Grossman/Orton to Cutler. Namely, the onus will be on the quarterback, set apart from the rest of the team but still responsible to the defense, not to play keep away, rather to provide a cushion of sevens and threes.

It’s not that Cutler won’t add an element of beauty to Chicago’s game, rather, he’ll accomplish it by being effective at it. Consider that Cutler is simply in Chicago terms a more talented, more realized, less flawed Grossman. Whatever changes he affects on the field, Cutler won’t swing the balance back from defense to offense, precisely because football is still a team sport and he’ll be all by his lonesome (Forte and Olsen are certainly talents but they’re weapons at offensive positions that only further serve to reinforce the defensive mindset).

The larger impact is the one Cutler has on the NFC North. In a sense, Cutler announces a literal arms race in the division. For a division in which last year, a first year starting quarterback was unquestionably the best among the four teams, Cutler topples a precarious and flawed balance.

As a Packers fan, a typical reaction might be disquiet that a hated rival landed a rare talent with a bright future ahead of him. Honestly, I’m relieved the division is finally catching up to some of the terms of this century. Most of all I look forward to eight plus years of battles between Cutler and Aaron Rodgers, both perhaps bringing the best out of each other twice a year or more.

Imagine, too, should Detroit land a premiere signal caller in this or next year’s draft. It’s a plausible notion that could more easily than any other route transform the division from a rotating one horse race into a free-for-all, strength found top-to-bottom.

(Perhaps that’s asking too much of the Lions franchise, but I’ll still maintain that Jim Schwartz has thus far done nothing to undermine reasonable hopes.)

In this whirlwind, I'm trying to figure out just how exactly in the Cutler trade did Jerry Angelo say "screw you" to the city of Chicago, the Bears franchise, and its fans. Normally, it's Angelo's first priority. I must admit, that message is not as crystal clear as it usually is.

Angelo in this case addressed a huge need for the team, a need that existed as an open wound for fans in the Windy City. He jumped at a rare chance aggressively, finally putting the weight of his convictions behind its outcome, good or bad. Sometimes a fan can't ask for anything more from their team than to do something, anything, just do it decisively.

Of course, Cutler came at a considerable cost.

Chicago now only possesses two picks in the first 100 of this year's draft, selections 49 and 99 at that. Throw in next year's first rounder and Chicago lacks a chance to inexpensively shore up depth.

For a team heavily effected by injuries the last two seasons since their Super Bowl appearance, depth is a serious concern, along the defensive line, in the secondary, behind the aging offensive line... and especially in the wide receiving corps.

This only serves to further the burden on Cutler’s shoulders. That’s the gamble that the Bears are taking on Cutler, that his shoulders are big enough.

In the end, Cutler exchanges navy blue and orange for, uh, navy blue and orange. Fitting for a change not as revolutionary as it seems yet is still rife with far reaching implications.

On the flipside, what are the odds Josh McDaniels cuts Kyle Orton by the end of training camp?

The Burden Of Modesty

2009-04-02T17:53:00.001-04:00

Never mind. Apparently, Cutler's now a Bear.

A day after cautioning against wild conjecture, I’m reaching for that pie in the sky again. No, not concerning the Draft just yet.

Rather, Jay Cutler in trade and the resulting possibilities race through my mind.

I could perhaps approach this topic more practically. Zac at Throwing Into Traffic weighs the implications in the likely scenarios (Browns, Redskins, Jets, Lions, Bears, 49ers) while adding a couple overlooked but intriguing possibilities (Seahawks, Eagles).

The Seahawks call in particular presents a paradigm shift of sorts. Where Seattle has heretofore stressed consistency, building both an offense and defense around the idea, Cutler could transform their implements of precision into weapons. For the Broncos, Matt Hasselbeck and a swap of first round picks could by an unexpected route give Josh McDaniels what he sought in Matt Cassel. Drafting Sanchez fourth overall, McDaniels could have his USC quarterback to mold and buy himself time while the wily veteran Hasselbeck absorbs the shock of transition.

Forget the likely scenarios. Sure in business terms, the Redskins’s every itchy Dan Snyder is given. And the quarterback voids at the Jets, Bears, Lions, and 49ers make them assumed players.

But what about football terms? Outside of economics and personality types, what trades make the most football sense?

If this whole Cutler situation was mucked because of philosophical differences on both sides, where can those opposing sides regain balance? Four ideas hit in quick succession.

Buffalo Bills

With the acquisition of Terrell Owens, the Bills anounced their entry into the AFC East’s arms race. But it doesn’t solve the questions surrounding Trent Edwards as field general for a squad desperate to identify as a bruiser. Cutler’s arm strength and vertical game would unleash the potential of Lee Evans + TO and create space for Marshawn Lynch to punish defenses set on their heels. It could be what Dallas was supposed to be, yet failed to achieve, away from the spotlight.

In turn, Edwards would give McDaniels a signal caller with many of the traits the Patriots model covets: size, mobility, intelligence foremost. Most of all, Edwards could be as close to a blank canvas yet with NFL experience as McDaniels could find.

Houston Texans

I’m no fan of Matt Schaub. The fact that he’s made me think highly of Sage Rosenfels at isolated moments, tells me something is amiss. But he’s incredibly accurate as well as being big and mobile, all things that nominally work well in McDaniels’s system.

For Houston, Cutler can finally leverage everything possible out of Andre Johnson. Plus, Gary Kubiak brought the Denver system with him to the Texans which would allow for an easy adjustment. But really the notion of finally matching Johnson to a quarterback who can utilize all his strengths is purely enough.

Carolina Panthers

The idea of Cutler plus the Broncos’s 12th overall selection to Carolina for Jake Delhomme and Julius Peppers makes some sense. The Broncos desparately need an game changing defender while Champ Bailey continues his slide into irrelevance (c’mon, tell me now that Gibbs didn’t get the better end of that trade with Clinton Portis). Steve Smith needs a quarterback he can respect and one that can make the most of his downfield speed.

However Delhomme isn’t really an easy fit for McDaniels’s offense… He is in fact an older and less talented Cutler. But experience is a huge plus for the Patriots system. Look at the success of Chad Pennington in Miami and Kurt Warner in Arizona, both teams using variants of the New England offense McDaniels ran.

Miami Dolphins

In some senses, Pennington is the perfect Parcells quarterback. Smooth and tough. Handsome Chad is rarely rattled even though his physical gifts don’t quite back up his moxie. Observing Jets training camp before the Favre trade I was impressed with how much velocity Pennington was putting behind the ball in July. Then December came and Pennington’s passes started to slow, the out routes shortened, and the Dolphins play calling reverted down the stretch.

But packaging Pennington and his successor Chad Henne for Cutler would give the Dolphins a huge piece to stay apace in the AFC East while the Broncos would receive a talented leader and starter while providing McDaniels with another Michigan quarterback, this one he could groom from virtually Day One.

None of this scenarios will likely play out because of course pro football is a business and in the offseason business takes a front seat. What should happen often doesn’t, especially when big bucks are involved.

Coincidentally, Cutler stirred up mild controversy last year when he claimed his arm stronger than that of Broncos legend John Elway. Measuring such things objectively is impossible – and proven pointless by the Kyle Boller Theorem of Cannon Arms – but Cutler’s claim displayed hubris to many whether or not it hit close to the mark.

Now Cutler can rival Elway in another facet: sulking his way out of one franchise. Elway pulled the primadonna stunt with the Colts, then in Baltimore, upon being drafted. His trade to Denver beyond transforming the Broncos into fast rising contenders in part hastened the Colts middle of the night flight to Indianapolis.

Some, probably Colts fans, might term Cutler’s impending flight Denver’s divine retribution for stealing a once-in-a-lifetime quarterbacking talent. I prefer to think of it as demonstrating how short of a distance exists between such rare specimens as Cutler and Elway.