J Pearl's QuickTrader

Thursday 7/24

2008-07-24T21:53:00.000-07:00

Call - "Looking for breakout down."
Result - From the first bar.

Call - "General additional down pressure anytime after 10:19 that last the rest of the day; may not kick in immediately, but watching for down or sideways from here on."
Result - See chart.

Call - "LOD: Last 30 minutes."
Result - 3:46.

Chart today of 7Ts and price levels is a thing of beauty to my eyes, and to subscribers' trading accounts as well!

Wednesday 7/23

2008-07-23T14:39:00.000-07:00

Call - "Breakout up, but weaker afternoon."
Result - Sums it up.

Call - Mixed cycles after 10 with 4T- but 3T+ at 10:04; 3T could win if oil down big. Probably down after 10:39 unless oil dominating scene."
Result - Huge pop in 10:04 3T exact; move stopped cold after 10:39.

Midday call - "Next move probably some down or sideways; talking about this afternoon and Thursday here."
Result - Market poked sideways rest of day.

Tuesday 7/22

2008-07-22T19:26:00.000-07:00

Call - "Watch for 76Rs and 138Ps."
Result - Morning high 76R two day range; afternoon HOD 138P. See charts.

Call - "Looking for rally."
Result - Enough said.

Midday call - "At this point preferred is up into 2:04, dip, then rally resuming maybe into 2:35 and after 2:46. HOD 2:05 area or near close."
Result - 2:46 5T kicked in even bigger than expected; long the way to go!

Swing call sent in Monday's forecast - "Monday mixed, Tuesday up and maybe big."

Monday 7/21

2008-07-21T19:44:00.000-07:00

In this post I want to point out that my work is not just about trading the 1 minute chart.

For slower daytrading, take signals on the 5 min macd and watch context of 15 min chart.
For 2-3 day option trades, take signals on 15 min macd and watch context of hourly chart.
For slower swing trading, take signals on hourly and watch context of daily.
For longer term ETF (for me long term is 2 weeks +), take signals on daily and watch context of weekly.
Of course if you want really long term, next step is pretty obvious - signals on weekly with context of monthly.

I offer an integrated view of intraday, swing and longer term trading. The small movements inform the larger ones. Trade what you like, and watch how planets move markets.

* * *

Call - "Watch for 76Rs and 138Ps. If price starts dropping, short; support may not hold."
Result - 12:00L with 1 point of 76R of 2 day range; LOD 76R exact.

Call - "Key general change after 1:15; if [stocks] up, momentum may slow. If already down, additional down pressure. However, this may not take effect on the minute. Watch markets for possible slowing or down."
Result - Key high 1:36 (just 1 1 minute bar) then down.

Friday 7/18

2008-07-21T19:43:00.000-07:00

Some points for savvy traders.

Trading
Green light for first short, 5-7 points. Next trade long 10:46 and out with 2. Short 11:47 in direction of 7T, taking 2. Glance at hourly chart at 2:00 says done for day.

* * *

Call - "Mixed cycles on open, but most likely is drop into 10:00."
Result - Easy 5+.

Call - "Very key change (7T) at 11:39. If tech can lead, this could power another drive higher. However, if tech clearly down then more likely dropping here."
Result - Better move down for 1 hour +, and market met with resistance at starting price level.

Thursday 7/17

2008-07-17T18:14:00.000-07:00

Time and price meet at LOD.

Trading
Gap up means usual fill, so if long then just quick scalp. From my view, no trade triggered until short near 10:40, savvy exit (hitting 2 day trendline, 4H- exact, junction of 7T price level and 5T change) was gain of 5+ points. Buying 11:25 another 2-5 points. Long 12:51 or latest breakout up 1:09 10 points. Short 2:32 5 points. Long 3:18 stopped for -2.

Call - "Important change on general note - bias is bullish going forward (as long as SPX is above 1240). For the next few weeks, markets may show surprising power to rally and go after highs. If indexes head up, make shallow Fib retracements (ie 23-38Rs) and head back up, jump on. Watch for 100-123Ps, and don't rule out 138s."
Result - Morning top 138P exact on 2 day range, LOD 38R of last swing; highs intraday 138P.

Forecast top line - "On Thursday again watch the trend channels."
Result - TL off Wednesday's lows gave today's LOD; line connecting late morning and afternoon high gave today's HOD.

Guess-pectations "LOD: 10:22; key lows 11:09, 12:31*, 2:35-41+, 3:43. HOD: 2:00-2:20; key highs 10:35, 11:50, close (2nd choice HOD, two days in a row possible but a stretch during OE week)."
Result - LOD 11:10 on key low time, key higher low 12:39 just a few minutes after 12:31*, HOD 2:28 just 8 minutes after window and just barely higher, close 2nd high.

Wednesday 7/16

2008-07-16T15:45:00.000-07:00

Bulls are back!

Trading
Trend channels picture perfect today as noted in 2nd item of forecast. If taking first short at 9:44 then TL off earlier globex lows hit and held so quickly out with scratch or small loss and looking long. Long 9:51 and out at top of TL 5+ points. If taking 10:15 short (note slope of TLs going up so better to buy) then again out at bottom and looking long. In at 10:35 with oil dropping and out at top TL, 3-5+ points depending on how fast your fingers were. Short 11:21 and out at bottom of TL, small gain. Forecast cautious on longs before 12:24, but long at 12:25 0-5 points depending on exit. Price dipped briefly below at 2:00, just waiting for clear move meant long again 2:16 with gain of 5-10 points.

Call - "Bullish scenario is up into 9:39, up after 10:19, big lift after 10:31 as oil drops, down into 11:41-12:24 to form correction, then resuming higher especially after 1:38 to about 2:18."
Result - 9:39 dipped but key low 10:21 then big up; further up as oil dropped with key high coming right on time; key low 11:43, higher low 12:24, then up to 2:00 news.

Midday call regarding 2:18 onwards- "more chance of up with this 7T."

Swing call made Tuesday 12:00 noon - "LOD so far 10:05 at 1200, could be IT and I am talking about the next several weeks. Markets getting back above 1240 will help cement that is longer term key low."

Call - "Tuesday could have been a longer term low, but Wednesday and Thursday will probably test 1200."
Result - Globex low 1202.

Please see chart with trendlines. This looks like magic and after fact but bottom TL just off globex lows, then copy line and paste to globex high. These 2 lines defined morning action. Adding middle line with midday highs got closing high. Insight clients know why some days TLs work and sometimes they don't!

Tuesday 7/15

2008-07-15T15:46:00.000-07:00

Lots of points for the quick!

Trading
Due to down pressure at 9:34 and top line trading notes taking first short, locking in 5 before news or getting the plunge your way and out with 10+. Macd up after 10:43 and while day looking ugly up to then plunging oil meant shift to bullish scenario (see below) so in by 10:50, another 10 points. Short 11:32 no loss, long 11:54 5+ points. Short 1:19 minor or scratch, forecast nixes 1:50 long, short 2:04 scratch. Long 2:19 5-7 points. Short 3:23 10+ points.

Call - "Bullish scenario would be strong lift into 9:20, not much down pressure from the 4TA, up after 10:26 with big up into 10:51, basically a sideways morning; with buyers coming in after 1:06 and then again after 2:17.
Result - Rally started about 10:30, big lift into 10:51+ that erased losses from morning; 1:06 didn't kick in but market lifted to new HOD after 2:17.

Call - "Big move in oil possible Tuesday"
Result - That would be down this time.

Call - "Watch for 76Rs and 138Ps."
Result - LOD within 6 points of 138P on 15 min chart and stabilization at that level. See chart.

Swing trading 7/7-11

2008-07-13T11:17:00.000-07:00

From Monday's swing forecast: " Monday morning down, looking for up in afternoon. Best case for bulls is HOD in afternoon and green close, but this may not happen with bearish scenario above easily winning. Tuesday down and possibly hard, yet watching price action Monday to confirm. Wednesday down and maybe big. Thursday possible panic. Friday mixed. Severe down pressure into Thursday; easily one of the worst weeks of the year. Perfect storm brewing with markets already in free-fall. Any catalyst (rising oil, war, economic news, etc) will cause panic selling."

Long term: "Bear market. Sharp drop into 7/10-11 lows."

While Tuesday afternoon rallied as alerted in daily forecast, the week went down into 7/10-11 lows as called. In fact, this drop was predicted from early June. Long term forecast from June 2: "Expecting down after 6/16 with especially sharp drop after 7/2 into 7/11."

Simply taking a short on Monday (if not holding from previous week) gave 10-20 points. Longs in this environment not typically advised, but Insight clients had green light for swing long Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Short again Wednesday afternoon with 15 min macd rolling over was gain of 20-35 points depending on exit Thursday or Friday.

Friday 7/11

2008-07-13T10:13:00.000-07:00

Always a good idea to trade in direction of 7Ts!

Trading
Gap down means usual fill but with extreme news if jumping in first short then scratch. Short again 10:20 taking 10 on spike. Pass on 11:59 long, if short then more points. Forecast saves short and stop out at 11:55 if watching the direction of the 4TA. Short 12:09 no loss. Watching direction of 7T change at 1:30 meant long 1:39, chance for points. If short again 2:21 no loss, long 2:45 more points for fast fingers.

Call - "In general, expecting down or at least limited upside from open to first 5A at 10:33."
Result - Market did do 50%+ gap fill, but then sharp drop into 10:33 right on time.

Call - " Very key change (7T) after 1:30, can go either way. Direction here dominates afternoon."
Result - Nothing lower after 1:30; better trading on long side.

Thursday 7/10

2008-07-10T16:31:00.000-07:00

Big points for clients taking price triggers with aid of forecast.

Trading
Taking first short stopped, -2. But next short in at 9:59 and out with 10. Next trade triggered long 11:30, out with a couple with up hit at 11:39. If short 12:27 watching intraday 50R nailed low. Taking long with price above 7T level at 1:07; 50R of 2 day range nailed high, 5+ points. Loading up on shorts at 2:01, 10-15 points. If long 3:06 no loss; forget about shorts after major double bottom holding.

Call - "On Thursday watch for swings with 0 result (this means price returning to some key opening level), 50Rs, head and shoulder patterns and equal time counts."
Result - HOD 50R of 2 day range.

Call - "Additional cycle (4TA-) in play from 9:46 all the way to 11:14; adds to down pressure. Price should confirm move by dropping further right at 9:46. Down and very sharp drops possible into 11:00-11:14.
Looking for rebound up into 11:39."
Result - Big drop 9:46 to 10:20 area was easy short. Lows 11:00 and 11:14, then up into 11:37.

Call - "Down pressure after 1:57 and very strong general negative at 2:10 should take markets lower. This will also have some spillover."
Result - 20 point drop to new lows into and after 2:10.

Wednesday 7/9

2008-07-09T14:26:00.000-07:00

Panic quickly back.

Trading
Morning was tough for both sides. Look for up but triggered until 10:17. If in there, locking in points before oil news or scratch. Mixed cycles in play mid-morning reflected in price; any trades likely stopped out. Green light for short 11:37 with 4T- coming up, enough to make back previous stop out. If long 12:19 stopped again, but reversing short with 1271.50 breaking made it back. Using trading notes of 50Rs nailed 1:10L. Short again 1:50 good for 10+ points. Trading off 7T price level after 3:34 gave green light for additional short or hold.

Call - "If markets stop cold at 1277 (38R) easily back down to test lows."
Result - HOD 1278.

Call - "In any scenario, up into 1:29. Down pressure after 2:05. Drops into 2:24 and 2:47."
Result - Very key high 1:35, then down.

Tuesday 7/8

2008-07-08T16:59:00.000-07:00

7Ts move markets!

Trading
Entering before 10:00 with 2 pieces of news scalps only; if taking first short then probably scratch, long after 9:40 (and past 4H- at 9:37) good for couple points. 7T right at 9:46 stopped rally cold so bias to look for shorts. Triggered at 10:15, probably slammed by 1 up bar, -2; in again 10:20 made it back. From there 10:29-12:21 move inverting up as oil dropped so possible longs yet will not tally. If taking lunch short 11:55 scratch or stop. If judiciously applying forecast and price action, next trade long at 2:30 with expectation of up after 1:31 finally proving itself. Result gain 15-20 points.

Call - "Very key change (7T) right at 9:46, should be down."
Result - Key high 9:42 / 9:48, then down.

Call - "Very key change (7T) at 1:31, markets have chance of turning up."
Result - This took a little bit to get moving, probably just lunch; but did come through with a major change in trend.

Monday 7/7

2008-07-07T15:09:00.000-07:00

3rd failed high huge score; afternoon pretty good rally.

Trading
Looking for shorts meant in at 10:10, probably scratch. Short again 10:52, scratch. But ahh 3rd short 11:35 bagged 20-25 points if watching for down events on forecast. Afternoon long triggered at 3:00, another 10.

Forecast top line - "On Monday watch for any failed highs to short."
Result - 3rd time the charm!

Call - "Very key change (7T) at 1:26; markets should turn up here."
Result - After massive drop this initially just stabilized markets, then eventually did come through with rally.

Swing trading 6/30-7/3

2008-07-07T15:05:00.000-07:00

From Monday's forecast:
"Monday morning down and maybe hard, but looking for afternoon rally. Tuesday looking for first of month & quarter buying to kick in. If it does, could be big but alert for further declines if bulls wimp out. Wednesday down, Thursday probably weak up. High and low of week will depend on Monday's afternoon rally and move in oil, strength of rally Tuesday and how hard Wednesday drops."

Results Monday down just a little, Tuesday gap down, fill, down to lower lows, then recovery into close as alerted in midday update; gap up Wednesday then down hard, Thursday lower lows but some up by close. While original forecast needed some tweaking during the week, daily forecasts and intraday updates were mostly spot on.

If swing trading and taking triggers on 15 min macd for 2-3 day holds, then forecast nixing 7/1 3:00 pm long with expectation of down the next day (of course daytrade long there OK especially with midday update). Macd crossed down about 2:00 on 7/2, better to take with overall trend down and chance to exit 7/2 or 7/3 if willing to hold in front of EE# for 20-30+ points.

Thursday 7/3

2008-07-03T15:53:00.000-07:00

Another day, another 2 10 point trades for those taking cue from forecast along with simple price trigger.

Forecast has been giving chances for several 10 point trades throughout the week. Hopefully you have caught some of these moves! If not, please review your entry and exit strategy.

Trading
Going for gap fill, in at 9:32 and watching for down after 9:45 was fast 10+ points. Next trade looking for long especially after 10:19 with 7T+ triggered right at 10:20, another 7-10 points. Done for day but those wanting more had green light to short at 11:35 and taking profits above 7T support level so gain of 3-5 points.

Call - "Regular cycle up after 9:39, but countered by potentially significant 6T- at 9:45."
Result - Fell off cliff at 9:45 for fast 10+ point trade.

Pre-open call - "So far price action points to up after 10:19 with the 7T. Looks like Thursday will close with a weak bounce."
Result - 10 point rally after 10:19 and basically markets supported even though drifting lower. SPX managed an up close.

Wednesday 7/2

2008-07-02T14:12:00.001-07:00

Pretty good day to short.

Trading
Market gapped up so looking for fill; short triggered 10:16, couple points if taking profits at 7T support level. Short again 11:01 good for 10 points with market down on time. Short again 12:19 (or holding), 3+ points. Possible long 1:48 no loss. Green light for short at 2:20 with 3T- and 4T- on the way, 10-20 point gain.

Forecast top line: "On Wednesday markets easily coming back down. Just watch for the shorts."
Result - Morning 10 pointer, afternoon 10-20 pointer.

Call - "Down after 11:03, down after 11:26. Key change (5T) at 11:51, expecting down.
Sharp drop into 12:03-09, down again into 12:24.
Result - Down right at 11:00, spike down right at 12:25 was nice exit.

Call - "May weaken after 2:33, then additional down after 2:38. Guess-pectation LOD: 3:14-31."
Result - Panic plunge here; market continued lower in last 30 minutes but fine if short!

Tuesday 7/1

2008-07-01T14:46:00.000-07:00

Quite a drop into 12:13, and pretty good bounce after 1:42!

Trading
Per pre-open update, looking for gap fill either couple points or getting lucky with morning news. Possible re-entry long at 10:30. Green light for short at 11:19 with gap closed, trendline break and macd down; gain of 10-15 points if holding to 12:13 as advised in midday update. Long triggered at 1:49 with breakout right on start of 4T+* from 1:42, also gain of 10-15 points. Thank you, done for day.

Call - "On Tuesday watch for double tops and bottoms. Market mostly moving on news and easily swinging back and forth."
Result - LOD 3 points from SPX yearly low.

Midday call - "Watch for drop into 12:13."
Result - 3-6 months of forecasts here in 30 minutes.

Call - "Chance reversal up day after 1:42."
Result - Price action from 1:42 said big bounce.

Monday 6/30

2008-06-30T16:21:00.000-07:00

Trading
Short at 9:53 good for 2-5 points depending on exit. Bias for down into 10:27 so if passing on 10:20 long then re-entry at 10:50 good for a few points. Short 1:30 on the dot of 4T- good for 3-5 points. Afternoon long with turn up in 7T+ after 1:40 small gain or scratch. Short 3:47 good for a few more points.

Call - "Expecting down after 12:52, also down after 1:32."
Result - 10 point decline here.

Call - "Very key change (7T) at 1:40, looking for up. Direction here dominates the rest of the day."
Result - Key low 1:53, then up.

Swing trading 6/23-27

2008-06-30T15:34:00.000-07:00

Sent to clients in Monday's forecast: "Mixed signals Monday but probably down, Tuesday weak up at best and again probably down, Wednesday moving on FOMC, rebound Thursday; will have signals for Friday by midweek."

Market mostly down Monday and Tuesday, Wednesday rallied into 2:15 but then sold off, Thursday down hard, Friday continued lower as expected. Most of the week as called except Thursday started with huge gap down and continued to plunge. Update sent to clients before Thursday open saying day would go down hard and yearly lows soon within reach.

Trading
15 min macd already down from last week; re-entry sometime Monday was small gain if locking in profit with Tuesday gap down. Macd turned up on Tuesday at 12:15, but forecast had expectation of down in afternoon so if taking that quickly out with scratch as afternoon 7T did drop. Wednesday just daytrade with FOMC, Thursday green light to short as 1300 broke and hold into Friday was gain of 20-25 points.

Friday 6/27

2008-06-28T18:08:00.001-07:00

Down to lower lows, but lifts up into 2:25 and 3:49 as listed.

Trading
Short 9:38 with forecast down bias and trading notes of 'checking lows'; gain if taking profit before news. If taking macd cross up no loss, otherwise next trade triggered short at 10:42 for 5 points. Short 12:32 7-10 points. Long 2:15 to catch forecasted bounce into 2:25 gain. If short after 2:30 then forecast of down hit 3:32 and up at 3:49 made profitable.

Call - "Bias for down, although another 300 point Dow / 30 S&P day is unlikely.
Result - Down to key support near 1275, then recovery.

Call - "Down after 12:51, down after 1:33. Key change (5T) after 2:08, also negative. Quick lift into 2:25. If day is down, good chance for correction up. Drop into 2:41, then down after 2:52. Additional cycle (4TA) after 2:57 in play for rest of day; easily another big drop. Lift and maybe big into 3:49."
Result - Down in early afternoon, but big lift into 2:25. Down again, but another lift into 3:44.

Midday call - "Watching 7T price of 1384 as key pivot on day. As I type starting to drop below again which is bearish. Best chances of lifts up are into 2:25 and perhaps rally into 3:49."
Result - Back below 1384 after 12:30 was great short trigger. Markets rallied into 2:30 and 3:50 as expected but couldn't sustain price above this level.

Thursday 6/26

2008-06-26T15:21:00.000-07:00

Trading
Gap down and no attempt at fill usually trend down day. Only decision is to trade in and out or short and hold. Short triggered 10:37 at about 1305 so if in and out 5 points. Short again 12:05 another 5 points. Short 1:21 couple points or scratch. Short 2:16 5 points. Short 3:42 another gain. Or holding from 1305 to targets advised in midday update either out at 1291 for 14 points and done for afternoon, or holding to 1288 and gain of 17 points, or going for close and 20 points.

Call - "The bearish scenario is for whatever news to cause the breakout to be down, so down into 9:48, down continuing after 10:13, recovery lift up into 11:52, then down again after 12:07 and possibly for most of the afternoon."
Result - That about sums it up.

Midday call - "ABCDs 76 at 1291 and then 100 at 1288, easily lower levels."
Result - Key low 1:25 at 1291, key low 2:45 at 1287, then down in last 15 minutes to lower lows.

Wednesday 6/25

2008-06-25T14:48:00.000-07:00

Down into 3:30 as expected was smooth 10 pointer.

Trading
Gap up means usual fill, but forecast of quick up 9:34 meant hopping on long with breakout and taking a couple points. Long again with macd up at 10:30 good for 3-5 points. From there no trade triggered until after 2:15. Possible short at 2:41, scratch; short again 3:20 10 points.

Call - "In any scenario, quick up into 9:34."
Result - This landed a little late but quick pop easy few points.

Call - "Especially watch for up right at 2:32 and 2:38, then down into 2:45."
Result - 2:37 top, 2:45 low.

Call - "Markets should turn lower after 2:52 and if not right then, after 3:00. Down and maybe hard into 3:16, 3:30 and 3:40."
Result - 17 points down off highs just after 3:00 into 3:36 and 3:48 lows.

Tuesday 6/24

2008-06-24T15:28:00.000-07:00

A great day to trade for clients taking cues from forecast.

Trading
Taking first short in at 9:44, taking profits at spike down, 5 points. Possible re-entry short at 10:34 but quickly taking scratch and reversing up at 10:45 with markets breaking out on cue with bullish scenario, gain 6-10+ points. If taking 12:48 short chance of gain. Short again 2:18 good for another 10 points as market came down as called in afternoon 7T-.

Call - "Watch for 76Rs and 138Ps."
Result - LOD 138P on hourly 3 points from exact. HOD 76R of 3 day range. See charts below.

Call - "Up again as early as 10:47, lift into 11:34, then continue higher; midday weak, expecting some down after 2:01 with 7T- chance but after 2:19 may hold up, more likely down in last hour."
Result - Markets took off up after 10:47, midday sideways, HOD 2:04 with markets dropping back down last hour as called.

Midday call - "At highs as I type. Things should cool off soon. Price currently 61R from 6/20 session high. If it can go any higher, watch 76R at 1327."
Result - HOD 1328.

Monday 6/23

2008-06-23T16:43:00.000-07:00

Trading
Gap up means usual fill, so short 9:47 good for 3 points. Long 10:17 profitable if out at 10:35 top as called; 10:45 short also chance for a couple points. Lunchtime trading in tight range not advised. Long 1:20 small gain or scratch. Short 2:26 gained a few points if out just after 3:01 5A-.

Call - "Trend channels again helpful, and some chance of counter-trend bounce."
Result - Trend channel off Friday's highs defined 9:40 HOD and 10:30 2nd H. Trend channel off Friday's low and 11:20L defined 12:30L, 3:20L and 3:50L.

Call - "Expecting up after 1:00, but the more important move is with the 4TAs from 1:10 to 3:03."
Result - 1:00 started to lift, but markets back down into 3:03+.