J Pearl's QuickTrader

Monday 7/13

2009-07-13T13:48:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bullish: Up most of globex but then weaker after 6:50 am, if gap higher gap fill likely, then breakout up after 10:39 and overall higher into 12:47 area; correction down into 1:38, up again after 1:51, sideways after 2:39, up again 3:26 to close."
Result - Gap up, gap fill, breakout up got started early and moved well after 10:39; minimal damage into 1:38, up again after 3:26 to close.

Friday 7/10

2009-07-10T14:32:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bearish: Down from 3:35 am, down on open to 9:50, then stabilization, lower after 10:30 to 11:50 at least; down after 12:41, then very tight range or some decline after 1:41 yet some lift into 3:40-close still expected. Most bearish would be inversion down into 3:40 but unlikely."
Result - Market filled gap, but down after 10:30 to 11:50 on time; tight range after 1:41 with a pop up into 3:40 area.

Thursday 7/9

2009-07-09T14:06:00.000-07:00

Top line - "Expecting range bound stabilization day. Morning better chance of up, afternoon weaker." Result - Range bound stabilization day. Early afternoon HOD, but then caved in.

Wednesday 7/8

2009-07-08T14:04:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bearish: Down overnight, key high 9:55, lower anytime and more likely after 10:22; tech leading down after 11:03, sharp drop into 11:23 area, recovery likely after 12:14; down again after 1:15, lift into 2:03, back down after 2:26 to 3:17, then either way."
Result - Morning 7T sideways and range bound per top trading note, then sharp drop into 11:23 exact; 12:14 recovery not immediate but eventually kicked in, then lower; divergence in NDX (top trading note) and SPX at key support turned 2:26 up.

Tuesday 7/7

2009-07-07T13:24:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bearish: Sideways or down from 2:30 am, down after 9:37; stabilization possible at 10:38 but if some negative catalyst could continue dropping; expecting up after 11:29, then more bearish would be down after 12:40, sharp drop into 1:16, down again after 2:42 into close."
Result - Close. Down after 9:37, stabilization after 10:38, but then down 11:29, up 12:40, best move of day down after 2:42 into close.

Top trading note - "On Tuesday price action usually down or slow; the best moves are caught with trend channels." Also note several key turns on 4-5Ts, see chart.
Result - Trend channel hit got LOD, video sent to clients.

Monday 7/6

2009-07-06T14:01:00.000-07:00

"Bearish, preferred: Down in globex and/or from 10:05 pm, fast drop into 9:35, continuing lower after 10:16, slow grind down; expecting down after 10:56 and 11:26, continuing lower after 12:17 ... Bullish: 12:17 due to 7T change, most bullish (not expecting) would be steady up after 1:18 or better chance after 2:19."
Result - Fast up into 9:35 then bearish scenario played out into key 10:43 6H (see morning update); afternoon bullish with price above 7T level from 12:17.

Thursday 7/2

2009-07-02T13:32:00.000-07:00

Call - " Bearish: Down on 8:30 news, first move down; 9:45 may attempt to stabilize (watch for double bottoms), then down after 10:43 and continuing lower most of the day; down after 12:39, drop into 1:00, and sharp drop after 2:36 into close."

Midday call - "Expecting down after 11:41, 12:39 7T and especially 2:36 5T and LOD near close. Intraday ABCDs point to 893-890."

Result - Bearish map mostly on although long stretch of sideways over lunch. LOD at 892.75.

Wednesday 7/1

2009-07-01T13:49:00.001-07:00

"Bullish: Up as early as 3:40 am but still some check of lows likely during session; most bullish would be up after 9:46, moving higher on 10:00 news, weaker after 10:52, stable or up after 11:59, then stronger move up after 1:34 and again after 2:31 into close."
Result - Markets started bullish but afternoon main movers at 1:34 and 2:31 went down.

Tuesday 6/30

2009-06-30T13:40:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bearish: Sideways or down from 7:30 am, gap fill move likely; down again after 10:16, no lift from the 4TAs, up after 11:21 to 1:13, then down, either way after 2:18, down again last hour."
Result - Markets started positive but ticked key resistance at 926 and sold off after news; down after 10:16, midday period stabilized, up after 2:18, down after 2:56 but 3:18 4TA inverted up as indicated possibility in text and update.

Monday 6/29

2009-06-29T13:18:00.000-07:00

Back from vacation.

Call - "Bullish, preferred: Up from 4:05 am, retracement down into 7:30 am, back up; morning positive but maybe slow, either way after 10:08, down after 10:40, breakout up after 11:20, pop up into 12:07, higher after 12:24; expecting weaker after 1:28 to 3:07, then either way."
Result - Market slow after 10:30 but bullish map OK.

Thursday 6/18

2009-06-18T13:29:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bullish: Sideways or up from 1:30 am, gap fill likely and weak until 10:20, then up, possibly continuing to 12:15 area; correction down into 2:00, also lower after 2:15, then more bullish is up again after 2:41 into close." Result - Opened higher, popped up on news, then 10:20 was more sideways than up; rally extended to 1:00 area but 2:00 event did drop, up again after 2:41 but only double top high.

Wednesday 6/17

2009-06-17T13:07:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bearish: Sideways or down from 2:10 am, 50% gap fill likely, down as early as 9:44 and more likely after 10:10; still expecting lift into 10:56 area and overall supported to 11:50; then down hard maybe for the rest of the day. Sharpest drops after 11:50 and 12:08, after 12:26 to 1:02, again 3:33 to close."
Result - Bearish map not perfect but down early, then recovery to 11:50+; midday went up into 2:14 area as indicated possible in midday update, then mostly lower after that into close.

Tuesday 6/16

2009-06-16T13:36:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bearish: Down from 3:50 am, also down from 8:33 am; gap fill move likely especially after 9:48; down after 10:44, probably lower after 11:59 to 1:13, then recovery; down again after 2:09 and most bearish is down again after 3:05 into close." Top trading note - "On Tuesday the basic strategy is to watch for a breakout and enter in that direction, then get out when it fades."
Result - Market started higher and bearish map not perfect, but 7T level broke down at 11:45 and clearly bearish rest of session. Taking that breakout trade best move of day.

Monday 6/15

2009-06-15T13:11:00.000-07:00

Top trading note - "On Monday the basic theme is to watch for a fear plunge or hope rally.... Also watch for 76Rs and 138Ps."
Result - LOD 138P down, 3:45 138P up (video sent to clients). 5T at 1:36 again changed the market.

Friday 6/12

2009-06-14T05:12:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bullish: Sideways or limited downside after 6:17, up after 9:20, if gap higher probably will fill; possible that rally gets moving after gap fill move but expecting better move after 11:21. If 11:21 5T gets going then mostly up to 3:24 or chance to close." "Midday call - Trading basic means chance of getting green again and if so looking for 942/944."
Result - Despite limited range and gap down, 11:21 5T change eventually came through with rally as expected, HOD 942.

Thursday 6/11

2009-06-11T13:24:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bullish, preferred: Up from 4:50 am or at least after 6:15, gap up may not fill, higher anytime; up after 9:57 and overall up to 12:40, then either way; expecting weaker after 1:11, either way after 2:42 and then up again after 3:03 into close."
Result - Gap up and no fill, generally positive morning although stuck in range, then positive bond news lifted; up after 2:42 but 3:03 key change went down.

Wednesday 6/10

2009-06-10T13:16:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bullish: Up from 8:20 pm, higher after 8:30 am would help; gap up will probably at least partially fill; either way after 9:41 which runs all the way to 11:23, lift to higher highs into 11:33, then weaker; slow or down after 12:34, then moving on auction (pulling for positive result, ie, enough buyers of bonds so they are not tanking); 2:00 Beige book tough call but up if possible after 2:28/2:36 into close."
Result - Gap up but down after 9:41 with gap fill and then some; bonds tanked along with stocks, but market rallied after 2:28 into close.

Tuesday 6/9

2009-06-09T13:26:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bullish: Up from 6:05 am, gap fill likely, still probably slow action in morning; up possible after 11:21, then decent move up after 12:11; if this gets going should last a while with most bullish scenario a dip at 2:31 and then higher into last hour."
Result - Mostly right, but 2:33 4T change, trend channel hit (top trading note) and ABCD 100 target nailed the HOD.

Monday 6/8

2009-06-08T13:44:00.000-07:00

Call - " Bearish: Key high forming 8:47 then down; could drop on open and continue down most of the morning, down after 12:48 but lifts into 1:29-42, either way after 2:08, then down after 2:59 and LOD at close."
Result - Mostly right until last hour, then big inversion on 3:22 6H.

Friday 6/5

2009-06-05T13:25:00.000-07:00

Call - " Bullish: Up on 8:30 news, gap fill likely, better move up after 10:57/11:02, bounce up into 11:14, lift into 12:44, up again after 1:08; then very slow or down after 1:46 into 3:10 area, then up again after that passes." Result - Gap up, then plunge all the way down to 61R from 6/3L (top trading note), V move up got started early; back down after 1:46, some recovery up after 3:10.

Thursday 6/4

2009-06-04T13:50:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bullish: Somehow up on positive news, or up after 8:56; gap higher may not fill, then down after 10:03 especially into 10:27; if financials better chance of up after 11:00, up after 12:07, continuing higher after 12:55, HOD near 1:20-42-44; most bullish would be another run up after 3:37."
Result - Positive claims data put bullish scenario in play; mostly on track but V move (top trading note) came early and lift into 10:27, up after 12:07 and 12:55, not much more after 1:42 but markets did poke higher after 3:37 into close.

Wednesday 6/3

2009-06-03T14:05:00.000-07:00

Call - "Bearish: Sideways or down from 1:50 am, drop into 9:40, then continuing lower after 10:11; no lift after 10:49 but perhaps more stable after 11:01, quick pop up at 11:57, down again into 12:04 (could be lower low); then still expecting up into 12:42 but most bearish would be down and nothing higher after 11:58, lower high 12:42 area, overall down into 2:01; expecting down after 2:01, and if down after 2:57 sharper drop in last hour after 3:06 into close."
Result - Midday update upgraded 2:57 which won out in last hour; otherwise bearish scenario mostly on track and smoothest drop of day after 11:58 into 2:01 area.

Tuesday 6/2

2009-06-02T14:10:00.000-07:00

Top trading note - "For Tuesday watch for 50Rs, 100Ps and swings with zero result. Equal time counts can also be helpful."
Result - 12:30 key low 50R 2 day range; HOD to 12:30L 153 minutes down, afternoon high 152-154 minutes up.

Monday 6/1

2009-06-01T13:15:00.000-07:00

Call - " Bullish: Stable or even up from Friday's close, then moving on 10:00 news; still expecting weaker after 10:22, up again after 11:16, possibly all the way to about 2:00; most bullish would be inversion up after 2:03 into 3:50 but that will only happen on strong oil and energy sector rally. More likely is correction down to finish about where markets started at 11:16."
Result - Bullish scenario mostly on track; nothing higher after 2:05 and markets closed about where they started at 11:16.

Friday 5/29

2009-05-29T14:16:00.000-07:00

Top trading note - "On Friday the basic strategy is to hop on rallies. If retracements are shallow (ie 23-38R down, then back up) stay long or add. This will be much more likely the case if up in the 9:47 7T."
Listed on spread: "up rallies! highs, small dips; 100-123P up, HOD close." Result - Range bound most of day but massive rally in last hour and HOD at close!