sports betting

2007-09-14T16:17:00.000-07:00

sports bettingSports betting is the general activity of predicting sports results by making a wager on the outcome of a sporting event. Perhaps more so than other forms of gambling, the legality and general acceptance of sports betting varies from nation to nation. In the United States, for example, sports gambling is only legal in Nevada casinos, while in many European nations bookmaking (the profession of accepting sports wagers) is highly regulated but not criminalized. Proponents of legalized sports betting generally regard it as a hobby for sports fans that increases their interest in particular sporting events, thus benefiting the leagues, teams and players they bet on through higher attendances and television audiences. Opponents fear that, over and above the general ramifications of gambling, it threatens the integrity of amateur and professional sport, the history of which includes numerous attempts by sports gamblers to fix matches, although proponents counter that legitimate bookmakers will invariably fight corruption just as fiercely as governing bodies and law enforcement do. Most sports bettors are overall losers as the bookmakers odds are fairly efficient. However, there are professional sports bettors that make a good income betting sports.Types of betsAside from simple wagers--betting a friend that one's favorite baseball team will win its division, for instance, or buying a football "square" for the Super Bowl--sports betting is commonly done through a bookmaker. Legal sports bookmakers exist throughout the world (perhaps most notably in Las Vegas). In areas where sports betting is illegal, bettors usually make their sports wagers with illicit bookmakers (known colloquially as "bookies") and on the Internet, where thousands of online bookmakers accept wagers on sporting events around the world. (In the United States, the legality of Internet wagering is ambiguous, due to the fact that online bookmakers generally operate outside of the U.S. Some online bookmakers do not accept wagers from the U.S. due to these unresolved legal questions.) The bookmaker earns a commission or "vigorish" by regarding the money at risk as less than the size of the bet placed. A common line is a $110 bet on a fair coin which pays $210 to win and $0 to lose. On this line, it costs $220 to bet both sides of the same coin simultaneously, but the combined bet always pays $210. The $10 loss constitutes the vig. There are opposing positions on whether the winner or loser can be construed as paying the vig, but this debate is not especially meaningful. If you view $110 to win $210 on a fair coin as $100 at risk, then it will appear as if the loser pays the vig; if you view the same line as $110 at risk, then it will appear as if the winner pays the vig. It happens that standard practice among bookies is to adjust odds so the amount at risk remains constant from the winning side of the proposition, hence the common perception that the loser pays the vig. Vigs expressed as percentages suffer from the same perceptual bias. On the line as given in this example, for a fair coin, the bookie has an expectation of making $5 for each $110 bet placed, which is often divided out and expressed as 4.5% Odds on teams or opponents are quoted in terms of the favorite (the team that is expected to win, thus requiring a riskier wager) and the underdog.
Bookmakers generally offer two types of wagers on the winner of a sporting event: a straight-up or money line bet, or a point spread wager. Moneylines and straight-up prices are used to set odds on sports such as soccer, baseball and hockey (the scoring nature of which renders point spreads impractical) as well as individual vs. individual matches, like boxing. For these sports, bookmakers in Europe and Asia generally use straight-up odds, which are quoted based on a payout for a single bet unit; for example, a 2-1 favorite would be listed at a price of 1.50, whereas an underdog returning twice the amount wagered would be listed at a price of 3.00.
American bookmakers generally use moneylines, which are quoted in terms of the amount required to win $100 on a favorite, or the amount paid for a $100 bet on an underdog. The amount "won" in a bet is the net amount over and above the initial bet. If a person wins $200 on a bet of $100, the bookmaker actually pays the winner $300 (i.e. $200 plus the initial bet of $100).
For example, a baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs might have a moneyline on St. Louis (the favorite) at -200 and Chicago (the underdog) at +180. A bettor looking to take St. Louis must risk $200 for every $100 he wishes to win over and above the initial $200 bet. A person wagering on Chicago will win $180 for every $100 he bets.
The +180 moneyline on Chicago includes a 20 cent "dime line". Bookmakers generally use a "dime line" with moneylines to calculate the vigorish they receive on losing wagers. Without the 20 cent dimeline in the example above, the Chicago moneyline would be +200.
For favorites of -120 to -150, the difference between the favorite and underdog is 10 cents; i.e., the underdog to a -120 favorite is priced at +110. The discrepancy between prices rises for favorites of -160 or higher.
Unlike point spread bets, a moneyline wager requires only that the team wagered upon win the match. In sports such as baseball, where certain teams can be heavy favorites against weaker opponents (sometimes as much as -350 or higher), the moneyline system requires that a hefty sum be risked on the favorite, while enticing underdog players with a higher payout.
In sports such as basketball or American football, betting on the point spread is more popular, although money line odds are usually offered as well. A point spread wager typically requires a bettor to risk $110 to win $100, the extra $10 being the bookmaker's vigorish if the wager loses. However, bettors backing the favorite collect only if their team wins by more than a specific victory margin, which is set at the time of the wager. This is called "covering the spread". Similarly, underdog bettors can collect even when their team loses, as long as they win against the point spread by losing by fewer points than were quoted by the bookmaker. For example, suppose that a college football game between Kansas State and Kansas had K-State as a 27 point favorite (quoted as K-State -27, or Kansas +27):
If Kansas State defeats Kansas by more than 27 points, they have covered the spread and bettors on K-State would receive $100 on a $110 bet. Kansas bettors lose the $110 they wagered. If Kansas defeats K-State, bettors on Kansas would receive $100 on a $110 bet. K-State bettors lose the $110 they wagered. If Kansas loses by less than 27 points, they have won against the spread. Bettors on both sides are then treated exactly as if Kansas had won the game. If K-State wins by exactly 27 points, the wager is called a "push", and neither side wins. Standard practice by U.S. bookmakers is to return the stakes of all bettors on the game in full. To prevent pushes and ensure that they receive their commission on losing wagers, bookmakers often set point spreads that include a half-point. Another common wager available for sporting events involves predicting the combined total score between the competing teams in a game. Such wagers are known as "totals" or "over/unders." For example, the K-State/Kansas football game described above might have a total of 55 points. A bettor could wager that both teams will combine for over 55 points, and play the "over." Or, she could predict that the score will fall under this amount, and play the "under." As with point spreads, bookmakers frequently set the totals at a number involving a half-point (i.e., 55.5), to reduce the occurrence of pushes.
In the United Kingdom, each-way golf betting is serviced by twenty or more bookmakers, some of which, including the larger UK and Irish bookmakers, bet in running. Before the tournament starts, bookies pay out on a quarter for the first five places, but the each way terms lesson throughout each and every five day tournament, with win-only markets usually available during the final round. Dead heats pay out a proportion of the win or each-way return.
Many bookmakers offer several alternative bets, including the following:
Proposition bets. These are wagers made on a very specific outcome of a match. Examples include guessing the number of goals each team scores in a soccer match, betting whether a wide receiver in a football game will net more or less than a set amount of total yardage, or wagering that a baseball player on one team will accumulate more hits than another player on the opposing team. Parlays. A parlay involves multiple bets (usually up to 12) and rewards successful bettors with a large payout. For example, a bettor could include four different wagers in a four-team parlay, whereby he is wagering that all four bets will win. If any of the four bets fails to cover, the bettor loses the parlay, but if all four bets win, the bettor receives a substantially higher payout (usually 10-1 in the case of a four-teamer) than if he made the four wagers separately. Run line, puck line or goal line bets. These are wagers offered as alternatives to straight-up/moneyline prices in baseball, hockey or soccer, respectively. These bets feature a fixed point spread that offers a higher payout for the favorite and a lower one for the underdog. For example, the above-described Cardinals/Cubs baseball game might offer a run line of St. Louis -1.5 (+100) and Chicago +1.5 (-120). A bettor taking St. Louis on the run line can avoid risking $200 to win $100 on the moneyline, but will collect only if the Cardinals win by 2 runs or more. Similarly, a run line wager on the Cubs will pay if Chicago loses by no more than a run, but it requires the bettor to risk $120 to win $100. Future wagers. This bet predicts a future accomplishment by a team or player. One example is a bet that a certain NFL team will win the Super Bowl for the upcoming season. Odds for such a bet generally are expressed in a ratio of units paid to unit wagered. The team wagered upon might be 50-1 to win the Super Bowl, which means that the bet will pay 50 times the amount wagered if the team does so. See also Sports betting systems Sports betting systems refers to a set of events that when combined for a particular game for a particular sport represents a profitable betting scenario. Since sports betting involves humans, there is no deterministic edge to the house or the gambler. Systems supposedly allow the gambler to have an edge.
Sportsbooks use systems in their analysis to set more accurate odds. Therefore the novice gambler may believe that using a system will always work, it is the general consensus that at some point, the oddsmakers will have adjusted for the system to make it no longer profitable. Very short-lived systems are called trends. Any single event that estimates a selection to have a higher likelihood of winning is called an angle as they are meant to be used in conjunction with other angles and trends to produce systems.
Frequently Asked Questions about Sports BettingThis is the rec.gambling.sports Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) list. Most of the information in the FAQ was taken from the Art Manteris book "Superbookie". Published by Contemporary Books Inc. Copyright 1991.
Changes or additions to this section of the FAQ should be submitted to: weinstock@conjelco .
Page last modified: 2-15-96
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Table of ContentsSection S: Sports Betting S1 Where can I bet legally on Sports? S2 What sports can I bet on? S3 What is "the spread"? S4 Why do I have to bet $11 to win $10? S5 What are all of the different types of bets? S6 Can I make a million dollars with one bet? S7 Who makes the odds? S8 Do I have to be over 21 to bet on sports? S9 What is the minimum bet that must be reported to the IRS? S10 Are there any good books or articles on sports gambling topics? S11 What internet resources and sports computer data services are available to those interested in sports gambling?
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Q:S1 Where can I bet legally on Sports? A:S1 (Philip Galanter) Leaving aside various forms of (animal) racing, there are at least four ways to bet on sports in the US, and of these two are legal, one is illegal, and one is ambiguous. You can bet legally at licensed Nevada Sports Books, and illegally with bookies in virtually every town. Most of the following describes the ins and outs of gambling at sports books. There are two points worth noting here. First, Nevada Sports Books can set up phone accounts, but will not accept wagers across state lines. Second, odds with illegal bookies are often worse than those one can get in Nevada.
Betting with offshore (international) sports books seems to be on the rise, and promises to spread from phone services to internet based online services. From the point of view of bets and odds offered, these books are similar to licensed Nevada Sports Books. The legality of these services is, at best, ambiguous. There are claims and opinions on all sides of the argument, but few legal precedents. In addition, some offshore books are run by old trustworthy firms, some are fly-by-night scams, and many are somewhere in between. Cavaet Bettor.
The last way (and other than in state Nevada betting the only other clearly legal way) to bet on sports in the US is the Oregon Lottery. This was described as follows in a rec.gambling post:
The Oregon lottery is alive and well as far as football betting. The game is called sports action. The line is set by Jim Feist. It is set and printed on Wednesday and does not change. This can work to the bettor's advantage due to changes in team lineups due to injuries and such. The minimum wager is $2.00 and the minimum number of games bet is 3. The payoffs for a three game win is $5.00 per dollar wagered. Four games gets $10.00 per dollar wagered. All other wagers are paid on a paramutual fashion. For example, a seven game winner usually pays around $160 to $350. The maximum number of games that can be bet have a winner. A week or two ago $14,000 carried over in the 14 pool. There are also some games that are called special play games with over/under total score. The line seems to be fairly consistent with the Vegas line on the Wednesday that it is set.
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Q:S2 What sports can I bet on? A:S2 You can bet on any sport the Sports Book you are wagering with covers. At most books, this includes professional and college football and basketball, professional baseball, professional hockey, and horse and dog racing. Every now and then Sports Books will offer proposition bets (see below) on events like professional golf tournaments and the Indy 500 and the like, but not on a regular basis for other events in those sports. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q:S3 What is "the spread"? A:S3 The spread is a point advantage given to a weaker team that is expected to lose by X number of points. This is the odds makers way of making even bets possible for a Sports Book. Usually if you bet against the spread you make an 11-10 bet. This means that you win $10 if you bet $11 for a total of $21 if your team covers the spread. A team covers the spread if it wins the game with the score modified by the spread. If Dallas and Washington are playing and the spread is (Dallas -7), then Dallas has to win by at least 8 points to cover. Half-point spreads are also possible.
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Q:S4 Why do I have to bet $11 to win $10? A:S4 This is one of the many ways the Sports book makes its money. In an ideal situation, the same amount of money will be bet on both sides of the line and the Sports Book will take its 10% from the losing side. If $55000 ($50000 and an addition $5000 to make the bets) was bet on Washington and $55000 bet on Dallas, no matter who wins the game the SB will make $5000. In case of a tie, all money is refunded. This is a rather simplified version as the spread moves when one side becomes more heavily bet on. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q:S5 What are all of the different types of bets? A:S5 Proposition betA prop bet is a bet the SB offers at odds and conditions of its choosing. Prop bets can be exotic bets like which team will score the most touchdowns, which team will shoot the most three pointers, which running back will rush for the most yards, etc. Most prop bets are offered at 11-10 odds, but some of the exotics will be offered at better or worse odds, depending on the bet. Money Line BetsA money line bet is a bet on the straight up total of an event or the odds for a straight up prop bet. There are two totals given for either side on a money line bet. A negative and a plus side. Dallas -170 Washington +150
What this means is that for every $17 you bet on Dallas, you win $10 if they win. For every $10 you bet on Washington, you win $15 if they win. This is the way SB's make money off games by not giving points. Spread BetsThese are the standard bets to make. Basically a proposition bet at 11-10 odds where the conditions are you give or take points on the team you are betting on hoping that the modified total of your teams score beats the other teams straight score. Bets on the spread are often know as straight bets because they pay even money (minus the 10% vig). Tampa Bay +19 1/2 Miami -19 1/2
This means that if you bet on Miami, Miami needs to score at least 20 more points than Tampa to cover. If you bet on Tampa, the score must be at least within 19 for you to win. The bottom team is almost always the home team. Over/Under BetsThese are also 11-10 bets on what the total of the game will be. If the total posted on a game is 39 1/2 points, then you can wager that the total score of both teams added together will be either over or under the posted total. Betting the over is known as "betting on the ball", betting under is known as "betting on the clock". Chicago -5 1/2 -180 1:00 pm Atlanta +5 1/2 +150 42 1/2
This gives the money line, the point spread, and the total for the game. It also tells you that Atlanta is the home team, and the game starts at 1:00 pm. As far as I know, this is the standard posting at mosts Books. ParlaysA parlay bet is betting on the outcome of two or more events, and getting higher odds than betting on the outcome of both events. The drawback is that the odds aren't right and that you must win all of the events to win the parlay. # of plays Standard Odds True Odds ---------- ------------- --------- 2 plays 13-5 3-1 3 plays 6-1 7-1 4 plays 10-1 15-1 5 plays 20-1 31-1 6 plays 40-1 63-1 7 plays 80-1 127-1
The more events parlayed the worse the odds shift in the casinos advantage. The advantage for the player for parlays lies in the fact that he can bet more on the same game (spread and over/under) and he can bet more on two teams who are playing at the same time. In order to be competitive, some casinos offer ties-win parlay cards. This greatly helps the player. The Las Vegas Hilton SB is one of these.
TeasersA teaser bet is a bet where you can move the spread by a set amount, but have to pay to do it. You must bet at least two teams like a parlay and win both. You can move the spread by on all the games by the set amount. Football Teasers # of teams 6 pts 6 1/2 pts 7 pts ---------- ----- --------- ----- 2 teams 11-10 5-6 5-7 3 teams 8-5 3-2 6-5 4 teams 5-2 2-1 9-5 5 teams 4-1 7-2 3-1 6 teams 6-1 5-1 4-1
Basketball Teasers # of teams 4 pts 4 1/2 pts 5 pts ---------- ----- --------- ----- 2 teams 11-10 5-6 5-7 3 teams 8-5 3-2 6-5 4 teams 5-2 2-1 9-5 5 teams 4-1 7-2 3-1 6 teams 6-1 5-1 9-2
Buying a half pointYou can shift the spread a half point in your favor by laying 6-5 odds instead of the standard 11-10. This is called buying a half point. You usually want to stay away from this bet except on three point spreads on football games. This is also know as "buying the hook". --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q:S6 Can I make a million dollars with one bet? A:S6 Sure. Bet $1,100,000 straight up. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q:S7 Who makes the odds? A:S7 (Philip Galanter) Las Vegas Sports Consultants Inc., establishes the odds for about 75% of the licensed Sports Books in Nevada, as well as for the Oregon State Lottery. It is run by Michael 'Roxy' Roxborough. He also operates as a consultant on gaming strategies, management, marketing, and personnel. Most illegal books in and out of Nevada draw their odds from what is posted at the various casinos. Transmitting gambling information across state lines for the purpose of placing or taking bets is illegal. News items about point spreads and the like can be reported for informational and entertainment purposes only. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q:S8 Do I have to be over 21 to bet on sports? A:S8 Yes. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q:S9 What is the minimum bet that must be reported to the IRS? A:S9 Well all gambling wins and losses are supposed to be reported to the IRS at the end of the year, but if you bet more than $10,000 at once, you must fill out some IRS paperwork at the ticket counter. All money won must be reported to the IRS. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q:S10 Are there any good books or articles on sports gambling topics? A:S10 (Philip Galanter) Here are some sports gambling related books I've found to be useful, in suggested reading order for beginners. The obscure ones I've purchased from the Gamblers Book Club, although I don't know if they are still in print. I tend to like writers that are objective and more interested in your winning than being a fan. Orkin, Mike. "Can You Win?", W.H.Freeman and Co., 1991. IBSN 0-7167-2155-4 (soft)
Presents a general overview of gambling presenting the real odds of various games. It only assumes a high school level of mathematics understanding. The 32 page section on sports betting doubles as a guide to the various betting options available, and there is also a 16 page section on horserace betting. A brief treatment on Kelly betting as applied to sports gambling is included. An overview concentrating on the question posed by the title, the author concludes the sports section with the observation:
"If you're going to gamble, which games should you play? I recommend sports betting. There are two reasons for this: 1 - Unlike in roulette, craps, and keno, it's impossible to prove that you can't win in the long run. 2 - When you win, it's because you're smart, and when you lose, it's because somebody fumbled."
Sugar, Bert Randolph. "The Caesars Palace Sports Book of Betting", St. Martin's Press, 1992. IBSN 0-312-05058-5 (paper) The author is a well known sports writer and Las Vegas insider. A good popular introduction to sports betting with equal amounts of information on betting terms, options, odds, and the like, various considerations for each major sport; advice on handicapping based on matchups, streaks, injuries and stat.s; history and color; and money management. Manteris, Art, (with Rick Talley). "SuperBookie - Inside Las Vegas Sports Gambling", Contemporary Books, 1991. IBSN 0-8092-4430-6 (cloth) 0-8092-3845-4 (paper) A good second book to read, after perhaps the Sugar or Orkin books as an introduction, Manteris shares his observations as the Director of the Hilton Race and Sports Organization...aka the SuperBook. Interesting stories about the early days, why the house doesn't always win, how point spreads are set and moved as a practical matter, how the house calculates its take, scams, mob involvement (now mostly not) and more. Peter Asch and Richard E. Quandt. "Racetrack Betting - The Professors' Guide to Strategies", Praeger Publishers, 1986. IBSN 0-275-94103-5 (paper) Written by 2 academics from Rutgers and Princeton, this book seems to be a trustworthy analysis of betting at the horseraces. Included is an overview and analysis of popular strategies, subjective and objective analysis of available information and statistics, utility functions as applied to the public and wagering behavior (important given the paramutual basis of the odds), and the bottom line on some complex systems by the authors, Ziemba, and Quandt which seem to actually work. Bob Carrol, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn. "The Hidden Game of Football", Warner Books, 1988. IBSN 0-446-39091-7 (paper) While addressing sports betting only in passing, this book concentrates on innovative methods for detailed sports statistics analysis leading to accurate predictions. "Scientific" handicappers will find this book very stimulating. Miller, Colonel J.R. "How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread - a step by step textbook guide", Flying M Group, 1993. IBSN 0-9636500-0-9 (spiral bound) This is a self published specialty book available from Gamblers Book Club or by mail order. While the quality of most spiral bound gambling editions are suspect, this book is reasonably good. It provides a detailed analysis of how a serious gambler factors in pointspreads, power ratings, injuries, motivations, weather, and statistics to win over the long haul. The section on money management should be taken with a grain of salt, as it proposes flat betting as almost optimal, a modified plateau system as even better, and the "Kelly system" as a formula for disaster, in a rather unqualified way. Michael Roxborough and Mike Rhoden. "Race and Sports Book Management - a guide for the legal bookmaker", (publisher not noted) 1991. IBSN 0-31-53873-6 (spiral bound) Written by "Roxy" Roxborough, the provider of the spread and other services to most major sports books in Nevada via his Las Vegas Sports Consultants Inc. This book covers in moderate detail the mechanics of running a legal sports book, including setting and moving the spread, various economic measures such as the handle and practical hold percentage, overlays, parlays, limits, the law and regulations. Pascual, M. "Bankroll Control - the mathematics of money management", (publisher not noted) 1987. No IBSN noted. While poorly published (xeroxed, white-out corrections, hand written corrections and page numbers) this odd and perhaps difficult to find spiral book is a treasure trove of practical analysis applying Kelly betting to sports and racing gambling. Theory is light and presented with (hand drawn) graphs where possible. The book presents a numerical recipe approach to even complicated betting scenarios such as simultaneous games, simultaneous single and multiple parlay plays, win-show-place betting, and more. Also included are some useful tables (variables include % of wins, number of teams, variations to include parlays or not) showing optimal bets, risk and expectancy. Also included are some program listings in BASIC for (now mostly obsolete) hand calculators that may be useful as pseudocode. The cosmetics do not, however, inspire trust. It would be nice if a r.g math weenie would review it.

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gamble

2006-11-12T09:01:00.000-08:00

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Gambling has existed as a form of entertainment for as long as people have lived on this planet. You can trace back forms of gambling in every age, civilization, religion and culture. Research discloses that various forms of gambling have existed in all great societies. Materials used for gambling have been discovered in Egypt, India, Rome and in ancient China. Even in the Pyramid of Cheops specific writings were found connected to gambling. From the 14th century archeologists discovered signs that gambling was banned from some civilizations and cultures. When the British King Henry VIII found out that his soldiers spent more time on gambling than training he banned gambling from his kingdom. This was an interesting move since King Henry VIII himself was a passionate gambler. There goes a funny story that he lost the church bell of London in a bet. Different gambling games have different backgrounds. The card games Blackjack and Poker supposedly originate from shuffling paper money in ancient China. Via the Mameluke Empire, this card game traveled to Europe and in Italy and Spain the makers of the cards started to make drawings on the cards from members of the Royal Court (like the Jack and the King). The queen was introduced to the pack of cards in 1500.Proof of all sorts of dice games has been found everywhere reaching about 2,000 years back. One of the most well-known games of dice from past and future is Craps. The original name of Craps was 'Hazard' and it was mostly played by the English elite and the high society of the 18th and 19th century. England brought the game into France and the French decided to call it Craps, from the word 'crabs' which means 'pair of ones'. The history of Roulette is also interesting. In French "Roulette" means 'small wheel'. The ones who invented the roulette game were Francois and Louis Blanc. In 1842 they invented the 'Single 0' roulette game. When this game traveled to the US, the Americans added the 'Double 0' to the wheel (which increased the winning odds of the house), which is now known as the American variant of Roulette, American Roulette. One of the most famous gambling related stories is that JuliusCaesar and his friend Marc Antony betted on rooster fights in their free time. Another known story is about emperor Claudius who had his chariot specially designed to be able to play dice while he was traveling.

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