tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-62014537164577731432008-04-22T13:11:00.000-04:002008-04-22T13:11:00.000-04:00I think the term 'expectations' can be understood in many ways. For sure,the media expectations many weeks ago were for a Clinton landslide (however that might be defined -- let's say more than 15 points). But I doubt that even then either the Clinton or the Obama campaign expected it to end up that way today.<BR/><BR/>The article in question here can also reasonably be understood as describing the 'expectations' by polling and political experts, and then translated into media frames for interpreting what's high or low and the implications for the future of the campaign.<BR/><BR/>Another way to think of expectations is strictly in a statistical sense. Poblano's regression model, which is based on the experience of previous primaries this year coupled with demographic data, provides a "statistical expectation," i.e., best estimate based on that data along with a range of uncertainty.<BR/><BR/>These are all reasonable, and not b.s.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com