tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-25418986529680071812008-04-22T11:23:00.000-04:002008-04-22T11:23:00.000-04:00I call Bullsh!t to McIntyre's article. Why? Because how can 6-9% be expectations on the day of the election? The term "expectation" implies a length of time involved. Calling an expectation using data on the day of an election uses no significant amount of time.<BR/><BR/>6 weeks ago, RCP had the race at 12 points. 2 weeks ago at 16 points.<BR/><BR/>When you look at the 3 major "northern" states bordering PA - Clinton won OH by 10.1, NH by 9.8 and NY by 17.5 - and yet PA should only be expected at 6-9???<BR/><BR/>Football Analogy. 2 minute warning - the team is on their own 20 yard line. The logical expectation is - they probably won't make a touchdown - just a field goal. Now it is 10 seconds on the clock and they are on their opponents 5 yard line and it's 3rd down. What is the expectation? The expectation is STILL a field goal. It ISN'T a touchdown because time has run down - it's not 2 minutes left on the clock. If they score a touchdown, they exceeded expecations - if they are held to a field goal, that is in line with logic. If the opposing team forces a fumble - that's a victory for the opposing team.<BR/><BR/>PA was supposed to be owned by Clinton - more so than OH. Clinton had PA's most successful statewide Democrat in her corner - and if there is a D-machine - it is Rendell. Rendell stated a couple of weeks ago that Clinton was going to win PA easily. Now, if Obama doesn't meet 6-9 points (less than OH), he somehow doesn't live up to expectations?<BR/><BR/>Bullsh!t.The Dead Guyhttp://www.thedeadguy.com/noreply@blogger.com