... In Search of Severe Weather

Indian Ocean due huge quake 'in next 30 years'

2009-02-02T00:02:00.003-05:00

Indian Ocean due huge quake 'in next 30 years'

JAKARTA] The Indian Ocean could be due another massive earthquake within the next 30 years — one that could rival the magnitude of the one that caused the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004.

Researchers made the prediction after studying corals, which show rings of growth from which past sea levels can be inferred. Earthquakes push the land up, depressing the sea level in the area and preventing corals from growing upwards. Sea levels then rise as the land subsides, leaving the history of the earthquake imprinted in the coral growth patterns.

The scientists analysed coral growth over the last 700 years in the shallow reefs along the 700-kilometre 'Sunda megathrust' fault — a boundary between tectonic plates off the Mentawai islands in western Sumatra, Indonesia.

This section of the Sunda fault had been inactive for at least 50 years until a magnitude 8.4 earthquake in September 2007. Using the coral data the scientists found three previous sets of large earthquakes. If the cycles continue to be consistent — beginning every 200 years — the next earthquake is due within the next few decades.

Danny H. Natawidjaja, an author of the paper and a senior researcher at the Research Center for Geotechnology of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, told SciDev.Net the probability of a large earthquake in western Sumatra in the next 30 years is more than 70 per cent. MORE

WEATHER NOTE

Results Are In: Great Southern California ShakeOut Successful, Sets U.S. Record!

Los Angeles - It's working! On November 13, 2008 more than 5.47 million people in southern California participated in The Great Southern California ShakeOut, now officially the largest earthquake drill in the Nation's history - and according to some community leaders, a success that should be practiced every year.

"This is the best single effort in emergency preparedness in my nearly 20 years in the business," wrote Mike Martinet, Executive Director, South Bay Office of Disaster Management (Area G). "I hope that we can continue to use this scenario or some variations thereof for years to come."
The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of events, including the drill, all based on the 7.8 Magnitude San Andreas Fault earthquake scenario.

All the resources, tools and information are still readily available at http://www.shakeout.org/. Much of the concept and organization came out of the Earthquake Country Alliance, a public-private partnership, which includes the US Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, California Office of Emergency Services, Caltech, State Farm, City of Los Angeles, Art Center College of Design, and many other partners.

When organizers of The ShakeOut concluded the historic week of earthquake preparedness events, including millions taking part in the "Drop, Cover, and Hold On" drill, they convened a meeting of emergency managers and community leaders to examine value of the effort. When asked what could be done better, the participants overwhelmingly supported the idea of turning it into an annual day or week of disaster preparedness activities.

"We didn't know when we set out to do this, if anyone would participate," said Lucy Jones, Chief Scientist of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project. "They did, and we're now getting calls to do something annually."

The requests to continue the effort have been so constant over the past month that the Earthquake Country Alliance has agreed to look into expanding into a statewide organization. "We certainly have heard many ideas of how we can get more people involved - and we'd like to do just that!" said Mark Benthien, Executive Director of the Earthquake Country Alliance and Outreach Director for the Southern California Earthquake Center. "We hope that an annual ShakeOut-like drill will be part of an expanded statewide earthquake awareness program for many years." MORE

MARITIME NOTE

Abandoned Vessels: Threat to Nigeria’s Maritime

About 90 per cent of world trade is facilitated through seas and oceans. The case of Nigeria is not exceptional. However, incessant pirate attacks have constituted major threat to the country’s maritime trade and investment. Shipwrecks and abandoned vessels on the nation’s territorial waters have been identified as another risk to huge maritime investments.

Gboyega Akinsanmi writes Nigeria’s waters are replete with all manners of obstacles that threaten maritime investment. Aside from incessant pirate cases, her territorial waters are clogged and littered with shipwrecks and abandoned vessels. There was little or no effort geared at clearing the country’s waterways and maritime routes to ensure free movement of vessels and safe investment in the entire area.This, according to experts, has a lot of implications for maritime investment and trade.

It hinders free movement of vessels with potential to cause ship mishap, thus leading to loss of lives, cargoes and multi-billion investments. If continued, it portends unsafe and unsecured maritime routes against the best practice, and Nigeria will definitely so much incur loss in revenue.Also, shipwrecks on Nigeria’s waters provide hideouts for criminals in the country. For instance, abandoned vessels have constituted base for pirates, sea robbers and miscreants to attack legitimate vessel operators and fishing trawlers. This has threatened vessels, maritime trade and investment worth of several billions of dollars. Fishing trawlers have lost about N25 billion to piracy and sea robberies.

The clog on Nigeria’s maritime routes and waterways is increasing concerns and fears of investment in the maritime sector. Like other maritime actors and stakeholders, the management of Nigerdock Nigeria Plc expressed profound worries about heaps of shipwrecks and abandoned vessels on the maritime routes and waterways because they provide hideouts for pirates and sea robbers. MORE

RS

Weathernews launches Global Sea Ice Information website

2009-01-30T00:01:00.006-05:00

Weathernews launches Global Sea Ice Information website

The Global Ice Center has been collecting and monitoring global sea ice data, including ice concentration, ice thickness and ice drift, since its opening in July 2008, in order to provide unified global sea ice information to shipping companies.

The Global Ice Center’s information covers such data as sea ice concentration, thickness and drift over not only the Arctic Sea, but also the Baltic Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Gulf of Saint Lawrence.

Recently, sea ice data from the Global Ice Center was utilized for a successful and safe voyage through the Baltic Sea by an LNG tanker operated by one of the world’s major shipping companies.

In the near future, we will provide historical sea ice data, such as the first day of freezing, the first day of melting, the average rate and the largest amount of sea ice area.

Weathernews believes that our official Global Ice Center website is able to support many shipping vessels across the world, in order to contribute to the safe passage of the vessels that brave the icy waters of the Arctic Ocean.

[Major Characteristics of the Global Ice Center]

AnalysisThe Global Ice Center provides analysis information of sea ice conditions in all affected regions, using data from our original observation network and from organizations of various countries.

ForecastThe Global Ice Center original “I-SEE” model predicts sea ice concentration, thickness and movement out to two weeks, to support safe ship operation.

NetworkThe Global Ice Center, by using innovative technology in academia applied to sea ice data, is able to provide vital information to maritime companies, as well as feedback from ship reports.

Weathernews Inc. is the world's largest private weather service company headquartered in Japan. It is the only global weather content maker that employs over 600 staff (including more than 200 meteorologists) in offices in 32 cities in 16 countries and regions, including United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, France, Spain, Australia, China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, India, Nepal and Taiwan.

WEATHER NOTE

Waterspout causes chaos for boaties

A boating couple from the Coromandel Peninsula who were singled out by a freak of nature on the first day of their holiday have not been put off the lifestyle.

Anne Louden and her husband John were watching an electrical storm last night from their anchorage off Great Barrier Island, when the sky became dark. Just as they went below deck, a water spout picked up their nine metre launch, threw it into the air and dumped it back down. The couple suffered only a few cuts and bruises.

Ms Louden says she has seen disasters on TV and could not imagine ever being part of such an event.

"It's just one of those weird, freaky things that happens. You can't be put off boating, you really can't, it's a spectacular lifestyle. But it gives you an appreciation of weather and caution."
Ms Louden says none of the other 30 or so boats in the bay were touched.

Waterspouts occur when layers of high, cool air blow over a body of water such as a lake, river or ocean sweeping up moist air from below.

Tornado Intercept Audio

MARITIME NOTE

Lack of systems training poses threat to shipping
Electronic navigation aids are not being properly used, says marine safety body

The UK's sea safety body has warned that computerised navigation systems are steering large vessels into dangerous shallows because officers have insufficient training in their use.

The Department for Transport's Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) sounded the alert after over-reliance on an incorrectly used Electronic Chart Display Information System (ECDIS) resulted in the temporary grounding of the cargo ship Performer on Harborough Sand on its way to Grimsby in May 2008.

A subsequent investigation by MAIB warned: "The use of ECDIS has steadily increased in recent years, and it is disturbing that the number of accidents resulting from the incorrect use of ECDIS and ECS [Electronic Chart Systems] through poor system knowledge has also risen.

"ECDIS will soon replace paper charts as the primary planning and monitoring media onboard most vessels, but the system can only realise its potential benefits to maritime safety if all mariners who are expected to use the equipment at sea are properly trained."

Many ships' officers, including the master of Performer, were only formally trained in the use of paper charts, although many have used electronic aids. An ECDIS installed in 2007 was Performer's primary means of navigation, but none of her bridge watchkeeping officers had been trained in its use.

MAIB cited a number of accidents in recent years in which misuse of ECDIS or ECS has been a contributing factor, including a cross-Channel ferry that headed for shallows in 2004 without its ECDIS issuing a warning because it had not been correctly set up.

And in January last year a vessel hit a submerged wreck near Dover, severely damaging her propellers, because the wreck was not shown on the ECS display. "The need for mandatory training in ECDIS is compelling," said the MAIB report.

Proposed international regulations require ECDIS in most large new passenger vessels and large cargo boats and tankers, and its retro-fit over time to existing vessels.

Dangers At Sea

January 2009...gone already! Have a great weekend!
RS

Great Lakes Water Levels Sensitive To Climate Change

2009-01-29T00:30:00.003-05:00

Great Lakes Water Levels Sensitive To Climate Change

ScienceDaily (Jan. 14, 2009) — The water level in the Great Lakes has varied by only about two meters during the last century, helping them to play a vital role in the region's shipping, fishing, recreation and power generation industries.

But new evidence by scientists from the University of Rhode Island and colleagues in the U.S. and Canada, published recently in the journal Eos, indicates that the water level in the lake system is highly sensitive to climate changes.

"In the distant past, there were great fluctuations in the water level of the Great Lakes, but it was thought to have been related entirely to the advance and retreat of the glaciers," said URI geological oceanographer John King, who led the study with URI visiting scientist Michael Lewis, emeritus scientist with the Geological Survey of Canada. "But the last time lake levels fell dramatically – down to 20 meters below the basin overflow outlets – it was due to dry climate conditions."

That event, which occurred between 7900 and 7500 years ago in the early Holocene period, caused the lakes to become disconnected as their overflow rivers, including the Niagara River, ran dry.

"People used to say that the oceans are so big, we can dump whatever we want in them and nothing will happen," said King. "They thought of the Great Lakes in the same way, that the system is too large to be sensitive to climate variations. But now we know that to be untrue. We've demonstrated that at least once in the last 10,000 years, climate drove the lake levels down pretty substantially."

Researchers had long assumed that the Great Lakes had been "hydrologically open" and connected since their formation 16,000 years ago during the retreat of the last ice sheet, but recent evidence has found this to be false. Ancient shorelines, submerged beaches, and tree stumps on the floor of some lakes indicate that the water line had been as much as 20 meters below the present lake level."We had a multi-proxy approach to this study, and through many lines of evidence we identified this as a dry interval with a climactic cause as opposed to a glacial-related cause," King said.

The climate and water levels in the Great Lakes region are determined by the interplay of three air masses: dry, cold Arctic air from the North, dry warm Pacific air from the West, and warm, moist tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico. The scientists found that during the period when lake levels receded significantly, the dry air from the Arctic and Pacific was dominant. Later, when precipitation from the tropical air mass became more frequent, the Great Lakes began to flow from one to another as they do today.

King worries about the economic impact to the Great Lakes region if the present climate changes lower water levels significantly. Navigation, water usage and hydropower would be severely affected.

"The climate interval that occurred back then is different from what we're going through now," King said. "It would take a pretty big change to close the basins again. But the sorts of temperatures and precipitation amounts that happened then are within the range of what is predicted for 2100. In the worst-case scenarios, a lot of things become possible.

"The range of lake-level changes that are likely to happen in the next 100 years is probably larger than the range of levels observed during the last century," he added.

WEATHER NOTE

Study links swings in North Atlantic oscillation variability to climate warming

Using a 218-year-long temperature record from a Bermuda brain coral, researchers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) have created the first marine-based reconstruction showing the long-term behavior of one of the most important drivers of climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a wide-ranging pressure seesaw that drives winter climate over much of North America, Europe and North Africa. Past reconstructions of the NAO have relied mainly on terrestrial, or land-based records, such as tree ring chronologies combined with ice cores and historical climate data. Those records do not fully capture oceanic processes linked to NAO variability, and short instrumental records from relatively few locations limit the understanding of ocean-atmosphere dynamics with regard to NAO behavior.

"By analyzing the coral, we were able to look at changes in the ocean relative to changes on land," said Nathalie Goodkin, lead author of the study published in the December issue of the journal Nature Geoscience. "Because they are slow growing and have long life-spans, corals can provide high resolution records that are well dated and centuries long."

As they grow, corals accrete seasonal and annual growth layers, similar to tree rings. The proportions of trace elements versus the major element (calcium) found in the layers of the skeleton largely depend on the temperature of the seawater in which it was formed. By analyzing the strontium to calcium ratio in the Bermuda brain coral, Goodkin and colleagues - WHOI scientists Konrad Hughen, Scott Doney and William Curry - were able to reconstruct monthly changes in ocean temperatures and evaluate variability of the NAO during both cold and warm periods from the Little Ice Age (1800�) to modern day.

The research team found the variability of the NAO decade-to-decade (multi-decadal scale) has been larger, swinging more wildly, during the late twentieth century than in the early 1800s, suggesting that variability is linked to the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. This confirms variability previously reported in past terrestrial reconstructions.

"When the Industrial Revolution begins and atmospheric temperature becomes warmer, the NAO takes on a much stronger pattern in longer-term behavior," said Goodkin. "That was suspected before in the instrumental records, but this is the first time it has been documented in records from both the ocean and the atmosphere."

Safe driving in severe weather

The recent heavy frost will no doubt return again and again over the winter and early spring. Here is some advice for safer driving in severe weather:

* Drivers are reminded that rain and spray can reduce visibility and when the road is wet it can take up to twice as long to stop, so it makes sense to slow down when it's raining.

* Surface water may affect motorways and major A roads so we advise drivers to move slowly through any standing water and test their brakes once they're through before continuing to drive.

* High-sided vehicles are particularly affected by windy weather but strong gusts can also blow any vehicle, cyclist, motorcyclist, or horse rider off course. This can happen on open stretches of road exposed to strong crosswinds, or when passing bridges and high-sided vehicles.

* Plan journeys. Check the weather forecast, road conditions, and the route for delays before leaving home and delay travelling if the weather becomes severe.

* Drivers are also advised to carry warm clothing and an emergency pack, which includes food and water, boots, de-icer, a torch, a spade if snow is forecast, and to make sure they have plenty of fuel for the journey.

MARITIME NOTE

Time to reboot maritime’s image, retired New Orleans port exec says

Retired port executive Ron Brinson said the Charleston maritime community should take the rapt attention that Maersk’s decision to leave has thrust on the port and turn it into a better understanding of the industry.

“The public does not understand and does not appreciate the value of the port,” Brinson said Thursday to a crowded room at the Charleston Motor Carriers Association’s monthly luncheon at the Sheraton in North Charleston.

Because of that misunderstanding, Brinson said, “we have a port that has been competing with one hand tied behind its back.”

Brinson, now living in Charleston, retired from the business in 2003 after more than 15 years as president and CEO of the Port of New Orleans. A former newspaper editor and reporter in Charleston, Brinson also worked for the S.C. State Ports Authority before leaving for Louisiana.

Much of Brinson’s talk focused on the fallout caused by Maersk Line’s announcement that it would begin pulling services out of Charleston early this year and completely leave town when its contract expires at the end of 2010.

Although the Danish company’s business is extremely important to Charleston and the entire state, the community should not take the news personally, Brinson said.

“These are unemotional business decisions that we sometimes tend to make emotional,” Brinson said.

Charleston, he noted, isn’t the first community to deal with the loss of Maersk, the world’s largest steamship line and the S.C. State Ports Authority’s largest customer.

In 1999, Maersk left the Port of Long Beach in California because officials there could not or would not agree to concessions the shipping company said it needed.

It took about three years, but Long Beach recovered after losing 25% of its business to competitor Los Angeles.

Brinson also warned the group not to heap blame on the International Longshoremen’s Association. Anti-union sentiment seems to have grown stronger nationally in the wake of Detroit’s struggles, he said, and seems even more intense in Southern states, including South Carolina.

The Maersk decision also compounded those feelings because the company said it was moving because the ILA refused to let the company operate from the common-user yard at the Wando Welch Terminal, a move that would have eliminated several dozen union jobs.

People, especially in South Carolina, tend to perceive unions as a four-letter word, he said. “The reality is that unions are a four-letter word at our port, and that word is F-A-C-T.”

In Charleston, he said, union labor has a good reputation. The SPA has a good reputation also, he said, and offered this advice: “Ease up; give the ports authority a little breathing room.”

He had some advice for port executives as well. Brinson said they should be willing to try new operating models and not wait for changes — potentially misguided changes — to be forced upon the port by the General Assembly and governor.

And he suggested that the entire maritime community, including SPA staff members, spend time “rebooting” relationships with the public. If the state is giving off the perception that it does not support its port operations, steamship lines might take the cue and send their business elsewhere.

“Maybe we South Carolinians are sending the wrong message to the marketplace,” he said.

RS

NOAA: 2008 Global Temperature Ties as Eighth Warmest on Record

2009-01-28T00:01:00.004-05:00

NOAA: 2008 Global Temperature Ties as Eighth Warmest on Record

The year 2008 tied with 2001 as the eighth warmest year on record for the Earth, based on the combined average of worldwide land and ocean surface temperatures through December, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

For December alone, the month also ranked as the eighth warmest globally, for the combined land and ocean surface temperature. The assessment is based on records dating back to 1880.

The analyses in NCDC’s global reports are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as increased scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.

NCDC’s ranking of 2008 as the eighth warmest year compares to a ranking of ninth warmest based on an analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The NOAA and NASA analyses differ slightly in methodology, but both use data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center – the federal government's official source for climate data.

Global Temperature Highlights – 2008

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature from January-December was 0.88 degree F (0.49 degree C) above the 20th Century average of 57.0 degrees F (13.9 degrees C). Since 1880, the annual combined global land and ocean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.09 degree F (0.05 degree C) per decade. This rate has increased to 0.29 degree F (0.16 degree C) per decade over the past 30 years.

Separately, the global land surface temperature for 2008, through December, was sixth warmest, with an average temperature 1.46 degrees F (0.81 degree C) above the 20th Century average of 47.3 degrees F (8.5 degrees C).

Also separately, the global ocean surface temperature for 2008, through December, was 0.67 degree F (0.37 degree C) above the 20th Century average of 60.9 degrees F (16.1 degrees C) and ranked tenth warmest.

Global Temperature Highlights – December 2008

The December combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.86 degree F (0.48 degree C) above the 20th Century average of 54.0 degrees F (12.2 degrees C).

Separately, the December 2008 global land surface temperature was 1.22 degrees F (0.68 degree C) above the 20th Century average of 38.7 degrees F (3.7 degrees C) and ranked 14th warmest.

For December, the global ocean surface temperature was 0.74 degree F (0.41 degree C) above the 20th Century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.7 degrees C) and tied with December 2001 and December 2005 as sixth warmest.

Other Global Highlights for 2008

The United States recorded a preliminary total of 1,690 tornadoes during 2008, which is well above the 10-year average of 1,270 and ranks as the second highest annual total since reliable records began in 1953. The high number of tornado-related fatalities during the first half of the year made 2008 the 10th deadliest with a 2008 total of 125 deaths.

Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in December was 16.95 million square miles (43.91 million square kilometers). This was 0.17 million square miles (0.43 million square kilometers) above the 1966-2008 December average. Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent was below average for most of 2008.

Arctic sea ice extent in 2008 reached its second lowest melt season extent on record in September. The minimum of 1.80 million square miles (4.67 million square kilometers) was 0.80 million square miles (2.09 million square kilometers) below the 1979-2000 average minimum extent.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

WEATHER NOTE

Officials send letter to Coast Guard asking for thorough investigation

Gloucester - The following letter was sent on Jan. 9 to Rear Admiral Dale Gabel, First Coast Guard District, Boston:

Dear Rear Admiral Gable,

We are writing to seek your assistance with an urgent request regarding the recent tragic loss of the Gloucester fishing vessel Patriot. In the wake of this incident, which claimed the lives of experienced fishermen Matteo Russo and Giovanni Orlando, thorough answers to many questions are necessary.

We are award that the Coast Guard has initiated an investigation into this incident, and that the First District and Sector Boston personnel are continuing to examine available information regarding all of the factors involved in the loss of the Patriot. We urge you to maintain and intensify this effort, and to expedite it as much as possible.

Yet we firmly believe that the information surrounding the loss must be significantly expanded to include the position, condition and all other pertinent facts available from examination of the Patriot in its present position. We thus request, in the strongest possible terms, that the Coast Guard undertake an underwater investigation of the vessel as soon as possible, utilizing either professional divers and/or submersible vehicles.

We are aware that this request is extraordinary, but yet this incident is as well. Thorough answers, to the extent possible must be developed to the haunting questions that remain.

Among those questions are how a sound vessel, with an experienced crew could so suddenly be lost in the sea and weather state that existed on Jan. 1 and 2. Understanding what led to the loss of the Patriot and Matteo Russo and Giovanni Orlando is critical, and conducting a subsurface investigation will yield answers that are vital for investigators, other Coast Guard personnel, the families of those who have been lost, those who must return to sea as fishermen, and the public.

Accordingly, please initiate such an investigation as soon as it may be undertaken. Thank you for your consideration of this request, and please do not hesitate to contact us if we may be of any further assistance, or to discuss this matter further.

Sincerely
State Sen. Bruce Tarr
State Rep. Ann-Margaret Ferrante
Mayor Carolyn Kirk

Cc: Sen. Kennedy, Sen. Kerry, Rep. Tierney

MARITIME NOTE

Coast Guard reminds mariners to prepare, exercise caution in high surf

HONOLULU — The U.S. Coast Guard warns boaters and beach goers to exercise caution in all Hawaiian waters for the next few days due to potentially high winds and coastal area flooding.
The Coast Guard reminds all who work and play in island waters that conditions may be more dangerous during potentially high surf conditions.

In addition, marinas and boaters are reminded to check that boats in port are properly secured, bilge pumps are functional, and all loose items are removed from decks. Report any boats adrift, pollution or other maritime emergencies to the Coast Guard Sector Honolulu Command Center at 808-842-2600 or to the National Response Center at 800-424-8802.

The National Weather Service — www.noaa.gov — has posted hazardous weather outlooks for the entire state of Hawaii to include gale force wind warnings, small craft advisories and high surf advisories. The boating public is strongly encouraged to pay close attention to local weather forecasts before leaving port.

Here are some tips for those who choose to go out on the water during the potentially heavy weather:

Leave a float plan with a responsible individual who knows your intentions, location and who they should call if you do not return as scheduled.

Wear a Coast Guard-approved life jacket and set the example for your passengers or paddling partners.

Carry a marine band VHF radio and/or other reliable means of communication.

Be prepared for the shock of sudden immersion and the disabling effects of cold water. Plan for the worst: dress as though you are going to get wet and be cold.

Maintain awareness on the water — be aware of activity around your vessel including changing weather, and always know your location.

Be responsible — know that alcohol and drugs cause accidents and sometimes death.

Don’t boat alone — boating alone is not recommended. Recreational paddlers canoeists and kayakers often travel with a single craft and one partner, or even solo, but it is recommended you canoe, kayak or boat with at least three people or two craft.

Know your limitations paddle — be honest with yourself and your companions. Your life and the lives of those in your party may depend on how everyone understands each other’s capabilities.

Tags: National Response Center, National Weather Service, Sector Honolulu

M.V. New Carissa Wreck Removal TITAN

RS

New Zealand Tries to Avoid a Rescue Bill

2009-01-27T00:01:00.005-05:00

New Zealand Tries to Avoid a Rescue Bill

From the The Antarctica Blog

Tourism in Antarctica isn't like tourism in other extreme environments - in some ways, it's much more dangerous.

Take any indicator - temperature, ocean conditions, accessibility - and Antarctica in a sense wins because it is colder, icier, and more difficult to get to than anywhere else. So it makes sense that New Zealand would try to block an adventurous rower from his plans to row around Antarctica by himself.

Maritime New Zealand (MNZ), the branch of government responsible for marine safety, would be responsible for rescuing the rower, Oliver Hicks, in case of an accident. MNZ believes that an accident is almost inevitable because of the harsh conditions on the Southern Ocean. Hicks will be using a boat that is powered by rowing but has cabins in which he can sleep, prepare food, and store supplies.

The boat is also allegedly designed to withstand Southern Ocean conditions.MNZ has great reason to be skeptical of Hicks' plans, however.

Previous attempts have resulted in accidents requiring rescue, and in one case an adventurer drowned. Rescue missions are costly and put rescuers themselves in danger. Hicks' journey would take him 500 days and would cover 24,000 square kilometers, or just under 15,000 miles.

He plans to halt for a few months during the brutal Antarctic winter on the island of South Georgia.Hicks' response to New Zealand's refusal to let him set out on his journey was to travel to Australia.

Australian officials are hardly excited about the project, but unlike their New Zealand counterparts cannot stop him from leaving. If he needs rescuing, MNZ will still be on the hook.

Hicks has already accomplished some impressive feats of solo rowing - he is the only person to have rowed from America to the United Kingdom alone - and feels confident that he is capable of completing his mission and staying safe.This incident underscores the need for special tourism policies for Antarctica.

The human desire to undertake difficult and dangerous adventures is admirable, but is disregarding the wishes of those who would have to rescue you also admirable? It's not as if MNZ could just ignore Hicks in the event of an accident, even if he wanted them to do so. It seems a shame that governments are hamstrung in this way.

While this type of tourism doesn't represent the kind of environmental threat that we at ASOC are most concerned about, it does point to the overall lack of regulation for Antarctic tourism that would protect both people and the environment.

Laws and rules no doubt deaden the souls of expeditioners, but they keep people safe and prevent unnecessary crises.

Posted by Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition at 7:31 AM

WEATHER NOTE

Fight against historic flood protects city

Record flooding of the Stillaguamish River filled low-lying areas south of the Stanwood city limits, leaving Marine Drive under more than 3 feet of water last week.

“It was close,” said Stanwood Camano Fire and Rescue (SCFR) Chief Mike Ganz Friday morning. “We are finally out of the woods.”

River gauges showed the Stillaguamish to be at or near record depth by 6 p.m. Thursday. An emergency earthen wall along SR 532 held back the cresting flood, and with the cooperation of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF), the city sandbagged the tracks and Marine Drive to keep east Stanwood dry.

By Thursday evening, the governor’s office had declared a state of emergency for most of Snohomish County.

On Friday morning, it seemed as if the worst had passed.

After consultation with BNSF officials, tracks were reopened by 10 a.m. On Monday, Fort Freberg, a 7-foot-tall emergency dike named for retired firefighter Jack Freberg, still stands as a reminder of the Herculean effort that saved the city.

Mike Simmons, SCFR emergency manager, said he is in no hurry to remove the fortification. “You really don’t want to pull these things down too quickly,” said Simmons. Ganz credits the volunteers who worked alongside city and emergency crews.

“These folks — they’re awesome,” he said. “They did a fantastic job.”

According to Ganz, many different agencies and individuals — some from other counties — worked hand-in-hand to prevent a tragedy.

In addition, inmate work crews from Monroe Correctional Complex worked with city crews filling sandbags and providing them to residents.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers worked alongside city and county crews to shore up temporary protective dikes and repair levees.

“They helped plug a break near 95th Avenue NW,” said Ganz. Rebecca Hover, Snohomish County Sheriff’s Office public information officer, said rescue teams were deployed swiftly to prevent the loss of life.

“We responded to dozens of calls, but it’s impossible to say how many calls we went on or how many people we rescued — there’s really no way to keep count,” said Hover. “Rescuers would get a call to go to one house to help people out and then they’d find more people who needed help out of the area or neighborhood.”

Most of the calls involved people needing help out of their houses or businesses; they also helped people who got stuck in their vehicles as they tried to drive through the flood waters, she said.

Christian Davis, North County Fire/EMS public information officer, said their crews were kept busy with rescue operations.

“We had nine water rescue calls, with 14 victims removed from the flooded areas,” said Davis. “We (also) assisted with a sandbagging request by DEM (Department of Emergency Management) for the city of Stanwood.”

One unique moment, said Davis, was when a 100-gallon propane tank washed up on the shore in the Warm Beach area.

Crews secured the tank, stopped the leak and notified a company for its removal, he said. Stanwood’s emergency operations center went into action Wednesday morning and remained open until 4 p.m. Friday.

“The final damage estimates haven’t come in yet,” said Simmons. “Within the city limits, it will probably be very low.”

Most of the real damage happened to homes and farms south of Stanwood, he said. For many, the days and weeks ahead will mean clean-up and salvage operations. Claims for assistance should be started immediately, said Simmons. Only damage from the floods occurring on or after Jan. 6 should be reported.

“The primary focus now is to compile damage reports from Snohomish County residents and businesses to qualify for federal disaster aid and speed relief to our citizens,” he said.

“Do not wait for a professional estimate of cost or an insurance adjustor document to fill these forms out.”

Receding water has allowed for the reopening of Marine Drive, but several streets remained navigable only by boat at NEWS deadline.

Dianne White, Stanwood mayor, said she is filled with pride after witnessing the ‘flood fight’ play out.

“The flood was an event that showcased the quality of the citizens of Stanwood,” she said. The seamless response of emergency crews and the scope of volunteerism prevented disaster on a wider scale, she said.

“Without the help of the Army Corps of Engineers, we would have lost our waste water treatment plant,” said White.

Flood waters entered offices at the plant, though damages are reported as minimal. Water processing and quality were not affected.

“The fire department’s Support 99 group as well as the Salvation Army worked tirelessly to meet the needs of victims, volunteers and EOC workers throughout the event,” she said. White applauded the efforts of Red Cross volunteers, Stanwood/Camano School District personnel and staff from Josephine care facility whose residents were evacuated to Stanwood High School.

“What distinguishes Stanwood is the ‘can do’ attitude of our citizens and businesses,” said White. “We had over 400 sandbag volunteers, who filled bags at Index Sensors and Twin City Foods parking lots.”

White said she is grateful for food provided to volunteers by QFC, the family of Carolyn Lund, and numerous citizens.

Flood gates erected to help drain the flood performed better than expected. On Friday, the gates were draining at 1,500 cubic feet per second and lowered the flood water by 46 inches in one day.

“This new addition to our flood fighting arsenal is serving to get Marine Drive and the railroad tracks open much sooner than past years,” she said. “The Stillaguamish Flood District and Max Albert are to be commended for their persistence in getting this structure built.”

Chuck Hazleton, Stillaguamish Flood Control District commissioner, said he was overwhelmed by the success of the flood control gates in operation near Marine Drive.

“The flood gates are working better than we had expected,” said Hazelton. “The velocity of the discharge is more than we anticipated.”

Built in September 2007, the control system — a concrete structure — has 10 gates to create a nonporous channel back into the river.

The overall project cost $175,000, and the city subsidized $30,000 towards the construction of the gated system.

“It was definitely money well spent,” said Hazelton.

Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen (D), of Camano Island, said the legacy of this flood event will be how residents saved their city.

“One of the merits of living in a small community is how your neighbors reach out to help,” said Haugen. “I am so proud of the way people in the Stanwood area rallied to help each other.”

Haugen said she believes Stanwood was spared because of all the people who helped. “It's really tragic how many people in our state were affected,” she said. “You just can't imagine how bad this is until you've experienced it.”

The flooding was yet another blow to a region already hit hard by bad weather, said Haugen.

MARITIME NOTE

Coast Guard warns mariners be aware of ice conditions in Delaware Bay

PHILADELPHIA - The Coast Guard Captain of the Port Sector Delaware Bay in Philadelphia has set ice condition three Thursday and is warning mariners to be aware of ice in the Delaware Bay and River.

Ice condition three is set when weather conditions are favorable for the formation of ice in navigable waters. All masters, ship agents, and owners and operators of all vessels, marine facilities and marinas should review and adhere to the seasonal ice procedures listed below. These criteria were developed in partnership with the Mariners’ Advisory Committee for the Delaware Bay and River. Ship agents should generally act as liaison between the Coast Guard and their vessels.

When ice is present, but less than two inches, vessels must have a propulsion system with a minimum of 1000 horsepower, and be able to maneuver un-assisted through the ice without needing to stop, back off and ram the ice.

When ice is present in the C and D canal, only steel-hulled vessels whose propulsion systems are in excess of 1000 horsepower may transit the canal.

Vessel convoys will not be directed for ice or ice build of less than two inches, provided vessels can maintain headway. For ice conditions of two inches or greater, the Captain of the Port, in conjunction with the MAC, will consider implementing a plan that includes directing vessel convoys.

Vessel moorings should be checked frequently to ensure the vessel is adequately moored.

Vessels at anchor should maintain their engines on standby at all times.

Vessels at anchor should ensure that proper bridge watches are stood at all times.

Vessel sea chests should be checked regularly for ice buildup and precautions should be taken to ensure that the sea chests are kept clear.

The Captain of the Port Sector Delaware Bay may establish additional requirements for specific geographic areas of the Captain of the Port Zone if conditions warrant such restrictions.

Please refer to the Sector Delaware Bay website for additional information regarding ice operations within the Sector Delaware Bay zone at http://www.uscg.mil/d5/sectDelawarebay or by calling our Sector Delaware Bay ice line at (215)-271-4995.

If you have any questions regarding the contents of this bulletin or the expectations of the Captain of the Port, please contact the Waterways Management staff at (215) 271-4889 or the Situational Unit Controller at (215) 271-4807.

Marine Salvage Basics

RS

Chasing 'Thundersnow' Could Lead To More Accurate Forecasts

2009-01-26T00:01:00.007-05:00

Chasing 'Thundersnow' Could Lead To More Accurate Forecasts

ScienceDaily (Jan. 15, 2009) — The job of one University of Missouri researcher could chill to the bone, but his research could make weather predicting more accurate.

Patrick Market, associate professor of atmospheric science in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources, is chasing storms in the dead of winter in order to release weather balloons that will produce data about the little-known phenomenon of thundersnow.

"One of the things we don't understand is how the cloud becomes electrified," Market said. "We hope to determine how the atmosphere is becoming unstable."

Market and his storm-chasing students are searching for winter storms in order to release weather balloons into the storm every 90 minutes over a 24-hour period. The balloons carry boxes with a barometer to measure pressure, a thermometer to measure temperature, and a hydrometer to measure humidity.

Market uses a GPS to monitor wind speed and direction of the balloons. This information covers the five things that are most important for a meteorologist to know for accurate predictions, according to Market.

"It has been decades since a detailed study with modern weather balloons has been done to see how the atmosphere destabilizes for summer thunderstorms, much less the winter storms," Market said. "So we are taking this tried-and-true tool of the meteorology trade and applying it to the very specific instance of heavy snowfall in the winter."

Once the weather balloons are launched, they provide detailed readings of every layer of the atmosphere. More detailed readings and data provide better and more accurate forecasting."We get thunderstorms in all seasons. That means something is making the atmosphere unstable," Market said. "Thunderstorms are often associated with heavy rainfall or heavy snowfall. It's just as important to get it right in the spring, summer or winter."

The phenomenon known as thundersnow is not understood very well. It is defined as a snowstorm with thunder and lightning that can bring heavy snowfalls of 8 to 12 inches. Tracking such storms can be quite a challenge.

"Often, these winter storms cause us to travel through inclement weather in order to get to the area where the weather balloons should be launched," Market said. "During travel, the heater in the vehicle cannot be on because the instruments need to be kept cold."

WEATHER NOTE

Record Shows Disasters Kill Most

Freetown — Acting director of disaster management department in the office of national security (ONS) has said in Freetown that disasters amount to greater percentage of the causes of death of the world's population.

John V. Rogers told participants at the opening ceremony of the training of trainers' clinic on disaster risk reduction for schools that though they cannot stop disasters from happening yet they can with their knowledge on disaster risk reduction and early warning signals.

"Man's negative interaction with his environment has often produced harmful effects with devastating consequences on human existence," he said.

Rogers said this sad chapter can only be reversed through learning and implementation of best practices as demonstrated in other areas of the world.

"Some of the disaster related incidences in Sierra Leone are due to illiteracy and ignorance. It has often been stated that a well informed public is a protected one," he said.

He said it has been the ardent desire of government to enhance the capacity of teachers that have played tremendous role in the disaster management school outreach programmes in the country.

The acting director noted that children were among the most vulnerable population group during a disaster especially those attending school at the time of the crisis. "Therefore learning about disaster risk reduction in schools can put teachers and children in a better position to play important role in saving lives and protecting members of the community in time of disaster."

He added that the clinic would provide the necessary tools to teachers and students in educational institutions to prepared, mitigate and respond to disasters.

On behalf of the national security coordinator, ONS chief of staff Larry Bassie said increase number of gravity of disaster with grave consequences that undermines the survival and dignity of livelihood in communities was a concern.

MARITIME NOTE

New EPIRB processing practices to reduce false distress alerts
Coast Guard says response to actual emergencies to improve
The following is the text of a feature story submitted by the U.S. Coast Guard:

Story by Petty Officer 3rd Class Melissa Hauck(ALAMEDA, Calif.) -- The Coast Guard and other emergency personnel who respond to distress calls will soon see an improvement in their ability to locate people during search and rescue cases.

This improvement centers around an emergency position indicating radio beacon (EPIRB), a device that when activated can act as a virtual lifeline from people in distress to rescue crews by sending out a transmitted signal via air, sea or land.On Feb.1, 2009 Cospas-Sarsat, an international satellite-based search and rescue (SAR) system established by the U.S., Canada, Russia and France will cease satellite processing of 121.5/243 MHz analog EPIRBs and will begin processing only the 406 MHz digital radio beacon signals, making it illegal to use the obsolete 121.5/243 MHz beacons.

The newest 406 MHz beacons incorporate global positioning system (GPS) receivers that transmit highly accurate positions of distress almost instantly to SAR agencies via the Geostationary Earth Orbit Local User Terminals (GEOSAR) satellites.

The digital frequency has been designated internationally for use only for distress. Other communications and interference, such as on 121.5 MHz analog signals, is not allowed.The change is expected to result in a substantial reduction in wasted SAR resources on false alerts while simultaneously increasing the responsiveness of the system for real distress cases."

The 121.5 MHz analog beacons produce a high incidence of false alarms and a host of other limitations that include poor signal strength, search areas that can be as large as 12 to 15 miles in radius and unreliability," said Petty Officer 2nd Class Craig Mercier, an operations specialist stationed at the District 11 command center on Coast Guard Island here."

The distress signals from the 406 MHz beacon are much more accurate than the analog beacon. Each digital beacon has a unique ID encoded within its signal that can quickly confirm that the distress is real, who they are looking for and where they should look, which will ultimately save lives," he said.When a 406 MHz signal is received, SAR authorities can retrieve information from law-required registration data that includes beacon owner contact information, emergency contact information and identifying characteristics of the vessel."

Digital EPIRBS also provide position accuracy that narrows the vessel's position to less than two miles in radius and decreases the amount of time SAR teams must search. This results in quicker response times, and is a major advantage over the 121.5 MHz beacons," he said.

The decision to stop satellite processing of 121.5 / 243 MHz signals was announced by Cospas-Sarsat nearly two years ago stating problems in the frequency band which overwhelm search and rescue authorities with poor accuracy and numerous false alerts, negatively impacting the effectiveness of lifesaving services.

The Coast Guard strongly recommends mariners obtain the new 406 MHz EBIRB and file a float plan with a friend or family member on land, with an approximate time of return and location prior to getting underway.

A float plan template can be found at http://www.floatplancentral.org/.

EPIRB owners can register their equipment in the U.S. 406 MHz Beacon Registration Database at:http://www.beaconregistration.noaa.gov/ or by calling 1-888-212-SAVE.

Beacon registration is required to be updated with accurate information every two years or when emergency contact or other information changes.

For more information on EPIRBS and the Cospas-Sarsat program visit http://www.sarsat.noaa.gov/.

Enjoy this Rollercoaster!

RS

New NASA Balloon Successfully Flight-Tested Over Antarctica

2009-01-23T00:40:00.008-05:00

New NASA Balloon Successfully Flight-Tested Over Antarctica

ScienceDaily (Jan. 12, 2009) — NASA and the National Science Foundation have successfully launched and demonstrated a newly designed super pressure balloon prototype that may enable a new era of high-altitude scientific research. The super-pressure balloon ultimately will carry large scientific experiments to the brink of space for 100 days or more.

This seven-million-cubic-foot super-pressure balloon is the largest single-cell, super-pressure, fully-sealed balloon ever flown. When development ends, NASA will have a 22 million-cubic-foot balloon that can carry a one-ton instrument to an altitude of more than 110,000 feet, which is three to four times higher than passenger planes fly.

"This flight test is a very important step forward in building a new capability for scientific ballooning based on sound engineering and operational development," said W. Vernon Jones, senior scientist for suborbital research at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "The team has further work to do to enable the super pressure balloon to lift a one-ton instrument to a float altitude of 110,000 feet, but the team has demonstrated they are on the right path."

Ultra-long duration missions using the super pressure balloon cost considerably less than a satellite and the scientific instruments flown can be retrieved and launched again, making them ideal very-high altitude research platforms.

The test flight was launched Dec. 28, 2008, from McMurdo Station, which is the National Science Foundation's logistics hub in Antarctica. The balloon reached a float altitude of more than 111,000 feet and continues to maintain it in its 11th day of flight. The flight tested the durability and functionality of the scientific balloon's unique pumpkin-shaped design and novel material. The material is a special lightweight polyethylene film, about the thickness of ordinary plastic food wrap.

"Our balloon development team is very proud of the tremendous success of the test flight and is focused on continued development of this new capability to fly balloons for months at a time in support of scientific investigations," said David Pierce, chief of the Balloon Program Office at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility at Wallops Island, Va. "The test flight has demonstrated that 100 day flights of large, heavy payloads is a realistic goal."

In addition to the super pressure test flight, two additional long-duration balloons have been launched from McMurdo during the 2008-2009 campaign. The University of Hawaii Manoa's Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna launched Dec. 21, 2008, and is still aloft. Its radio telescope is searching for indirect evidence of extremely high-energy neutrino particles possibly coming from outside our Milky Way galaxy.

The University of Maryland's Cosmic Ray Energetics and Mass, or CREAM IV, experiment launched Dec. 19, 2008, and landed Jan. 6, 2009. The CREAM investigation was used to directly measure high energy cosmic-ray particles arriving at Earth after originating from distant supernova explosions elsewhere in the Milky Way galaxy.

The super-pressure balloon was highlighted in the National Research Council's decadal survey "Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium," and will play an important role in providing inexpensive access to the near-space environment for science and technology.

NASA and the National Science Foundation conduct an annual scientific balloon campaign during the Antarctic summer. The National Science Foundation manages the U.S. Antarctic Program and provides logistic support for all U.S. scientific operations in Antarctica.

The Wallops Flight Facility is a division of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. Wallops manages NASA's scientific balloon program for the Science Mission Directorate. Launch operations are conducted by the Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility of Palestine, Texas, which is managed for NASA by the Physical Science Laboratory of New Mexico State University in Las Cruces.

Track the balloons online at: http://www.csbf.nasa.gov/antarctica/ice0809.htm
For information about the NASA balloon program visit: http://sites.wff.nasa.gov/code820

WEATHER NOTE

Tornado-proof dome under construction

A concrete dome capable of withstanding 300-mile-an-hour tornadoes is sure to become a landmark around the small Webster County town of Niangua, Webster County's emergency management director said of a project that will make major progress today.

A heavy plastic membrane that will act as a mold for concrete shot onto steel reinforcing bar will be inflated today, Emergency Management Director Bill Sexton said.

The dome will be the first monolithic dome approved for use by the Federal Emergency Management Agency for use as a tornado shelter, Sexton said.

The 61-foot-wide dome also can shelter students of the nearby Niangua School and other people, with a maximum capacity of 400.

Ninety percent of the structure's $311,000 cost is being financed by FEMA.

New emergency sirens going in rural areas

Rural Winona County residents will be better alerted in case of flood or tornado after county crews install 10 new sirens paid for by a $242,000 state grant.County commissioners earlier this month accepted the grant, which will pay to buy and install the sirens as early as this spring. The new sirens will alert residents to floods or tornadoes in areas that previously didn’t have sirens or are covered by aging sirens, County Emergency Management Director Bob Bilder said.

Officials in Stockton and Minnesota City said sirens there didn’t go off during a tornado warning in 2008, and Stockton leaders bought a new siren for their city last year.The new sirens won’t rely on electricity in an emergency: they’re solar-powered with battery backups, Bilder said.

New sirens are slated to be installed in the following locations:

Twin Bluffs near Pickwick on County Road 7
near the Gunderson subdivision in Goodview
Dresbach
Elba
Minnesota City
Green Terrace Mobile Estates near La Moille
In the mobile home park in Stockton
Near the Springbrook Addition on County Road 17,
And in the Hidden Valley Mobile Home Park.

County leaders still are trying to obtain funds to install six more new sirens, said Dave Belz, an emergency grants contractor for the county.Those locations are in Homer, Cedar Valley, Dakota, the Sunny Acres subdivision in Goodview, Minneiska and Whitewater State Park.

MARITIME NOTE

He serves hot soup in rough seas
By Mozart PastranoPhilippine Daily Inquirer

WHEN THE GOING GETS ROUGH, CHEF Choi goes beyond his comfort zone — he makes hot, steaming soup.

“It’s the most difficult thing to do in the galley of a ship caught up in big waves or some storm, and it’s SOP not to prepare soup during such times, but I have realized that it’s the best comfort food to whip up for my officers and crew,” confides the game 27-year-old chief cook of an international shipping lines.

His usual standbys are borsch, a traditional spicy Russian concoction made of beetroot, and eintofp, a German broth where all kinds of sausages and meats and beans broil in savory delectation.

And he makes these soups every now and then when his ship crosses, say, the Mediterranean Sea and the treacherous Indian Ocean. The video he took of one Indian Ocean crossing shows his ship heaving and dipping and facing head-on waves as impossibly tall as churches.

But Chef Choi—full name: Ian Jul Banghal, of Cagayan de Oro City—waves off these stomach-churning moments, saying, “What I keep in mind are our destinations.” He rattles off: Palma de Mallorca or Party Island in Spain; Marseilles, France; Salerno and Palermo, Italy; Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Hamburg, Germany; Swansea and Liverpool, UK; Istanbul, Turkey; Antwerp, Belgium, and even picturesque Chennai, the third largest city in India.“Once,” he chuckles, “we snaked through the Suez Canal in Egypt for the longest time. We also docked at the mythical island of Thessalonike in Greece, and I explored its nooks and crannies. For spooky kicks, nothing can beat our adventure at Constanza in Romania, home of Dracula. Then there were those memorable safari trips in Kenya and Tanzania. And the time I saw the breathtaking lay of the land from a mountaintop in the Croatian city of Split. But my favorite outing of all was our stop at the Seychelles Island. It’s paradise.

Paradise and hellish waves spice up Chef Choi’s thrilling ride through life.

When he graduated from the prestigious Liceo de Cagayan High School in Cagayan de Oro in 1998, he wanted to do three things in college: study architecture, major in voice and pursue stage acting. At the time, however, there were not many college opportunities for these artsy things in the city. So his parents, Juliano, a CPA, and Agustina, a businesswoman, sent him to the nearest possible school for such inclinations—the University of Mindanao in Davao City, where he took up BS Architecture.

Upon graduation, he worked for Comfac Corp., a multinational firm engaged in designing and producing furniture and fixtures. He was the interior designer and estimator. (“I designed the products and made the budget and production estimates.”)

Growing up in the kitchen

It paid well and allowed him to continue his involvement with Pasundayag, a community theater group in Cagayan de Oro. He got to do a successful Valentine’s concert with his sister Julie Ann in a hotel ballroom.

But he was also into cooking and baking. His mother ran a thriving restaurant and catering business, and he continued to help out when he could. He was known for treating his friends to wondrous culinary adventures.

One friend happened to mention to him that there was a scholarship for aspiring chefs. The successful applicants would be flown to a culinary school in Germany for a one-year course. Even better, the graduates of that course would be automatically offered jobs in an international shipping line —as chefs traveling around the world on the high seas.

He applied for the scholarship. During the interview, he was told, “You don’t belong here. You have no professional experience in the kitchen.”

Nonplussed by such putdowns—his theater background apparently prepared him for these dramatic moments—he replied, “While it’s true that I’m an architect by profession, I grew up in the kitchen. Food is my passion. It’s my life. All this I bring with me wherever you’ll take me. And I’m a very good student. Teach me.”

He got the scholarship.

Lessons in Germany

During the six-month preparatory training in General Santos City and in Manila, he surprised even himself by topping the class. “My classmates were professional chefs and they knew everything, but I was a newcomer and I wanted to learn everything,” he says now, leafing through his certificates and photographs.

In Germany, he had a grand time savoring the hands-on lessons in the kitchen. “Our teachers were European chefs, and they shared their professional secrets. They were very exacting. But they were also very helpful. My enthusiasm and diligence endeared me to them. I absorbed everything, not just the kitchen tricks, their ways of seeing and preparing and presenting—but also the culture, their way of thinking. I learned a lot.”

Chef Choi began his new career as a second cook in a freighter that carried container vans to ports all over Europe. It was a brave, new world for him. “It was not so much work as fun because I got to see the world for the first time,” he beams.

He had no trouble adjusting to life in the ship either. “In theater,” he says, “I learned how to deal with all sorts of personalities and egos in such a way that I could work with anyone well so the show could go on. I applied this mind set in the ship, and I was able to navigate through the various nationalities and their cultural quirks.”

In no time at all, he was promoted chief cook. It was then that he decided he was not going back to architecture.

“Food and travel—these are my life now,” Chef Choi declares.

World’s windiest ocean locale

With the whole world as his stage, guess what is Chef Choi’s most prized souvenir from all his travels. What would you know, but a certificate attesting that he has sailed across the Equator.

“This was not even in my dreams,” he lets out.

“This is like magic. Suddenly I’m doing all this. The world is no longer out there. It’s here. And I’m traipsing about it like crazy.”

Thar she blows: A weather report from the world’s windiest ocean locale

A buoy anchored southeast of Greenland dutifully gathered wave and weather data in one of the world’s most hostile environments for more than five months, until the really rough weather of winter arrived and the buoy snapped free — but not before it confirmed satellite data suggesting the region is the world’s windiest for oceans.

The seas east of Greenland’s southern tip, a desolate point called Cape Farewell, are notoriously storm-tossed, says Ian Renfrew, an atmospheric scientist at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, England. As storm systems race eastward from northernmost Canada, their frigid winds either pass over Greenland’s kilometers-thick ice sheet and gain speed as they rush down its eastern slope, or they spill around the southern tip of the island. Waters in the area are likewise buffeted by storm systems that approach the island from the east and are then steered southward by Greenland’s icy blockade.

The region’s bad weather is what spurred Renfrew and his colleagues to tether a weather buoy to the 3-kilometer–deep seafloor there in the summer of 2004. At least 10 times that summer and fall, and sometimes for extended intervals, instruments on the floating platform measured winds exceeding speeds of 20 meters per second (about 45 miles per hour), the researchers reported January 13 at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in Phoenix. Then on December 7, after less than six months in service, either high winds or huge waves — or both — pummeled the buoy and broke its tether.

Satellite-based sensors supplied data in recent years indicating that the ocean region east of Cape Farewell is the windiest in the world, says Renfrew. Furthermore, he notes, the buoy’s measurements suggest that the wind speeds inferred from the satellite data are accurate — a calibration that’s useful for analyzing similar data gathered for other parts of the ocean.
Renfrew and his colleagues estimate that 20 percent of the time winds at the site east of Cape Farewell blow even faster than 20 meters per second.

Rain machines: Tropical cyclones supply bulk of rain for some places

Tropical cyclones, the immense rotating storm systems that include hurricanes and their weaker cousins, typically last only a short time and cover a relatively small part of Earth’s surface. Nevertheless, at some latitudes these storms provide a substantial part of the region’s rainfall, a new study suggests.

For each year from 1998 through 2007, meteorologists tallied between 90 and 100 tropical cyclones that had peak wind speeds of at least 17.5 meters per second (about 39 miles per hour), says Christopher L. Williams, a recent graduate of Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Using satellite data, he and colleague Frank Marks Jr. of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division in Miami estimated total worldwide rainfall for those years, as well as the amount of precipitation dumped only by the tropical cyclones.

Overall, tropical cyclones drop between 2 and 3 percent of the world’s rainfall, the researchers reported January 13 at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in Phoenix. And that fraction is particularly small at latitudes near the equator, where rainfall is plentiful but the forces that drive large-scale atmospheric rotation and cause cyclones to develop are practically nonexistent, says Williams.

However, at latitudes between 15° and 30° — a swath that in the Northern Hemisphere stretches from central Honduras to just north of New Orleans — rainfall is less abundant, and tropical cyclones account for as much as 17 percent of annual rainfall.

Sea diamond sinking

HAVE A WONDERFUL WEEKEND!

RS

Hazards Of Severe Space Weather Revealed

2009-01-22T00:23:00.005-05:00

Hazards Of Severe Space Weather Revealed

ScienceDaily (Jan. 12, 2009) — A NASA-funded study describes how extreme solar eruptions could have severe consequences for communications, power grids and other technology on Earth.

The National Academy of Sciences in Washington conducted the study.

The resulting report provides some of the first clear economic data that effectively quantifies today's risk of extreme conditions in space driven by magnetic activity on the sun and disturbances in the near-Earth environment. Instances of extreme space weather are rare and are categorized with other natural hazards that have a low frequency but high consequences.

"Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA Headquarters in Washington.

"To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun's activity."

Besides emitting a continuous stream of plasma called the solar wind, the sun periodically releases billions of tons of matter called coronal mass ejections.

These immense clouds of material, when directed toward Earth, can cause large magnetic storms in the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. Such space weather can affect the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems.

Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet. Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting. Space weather has been recognized as causing problems with new technology since the invention of the telegraph in the 19th century.

A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities. Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future.

NASA requested the study to assess the potential damage from significant space weather during the next 20 years. National and international experts from industry, government and academia participated in the study. The report documents the possibility of a space weather event that has societal effects and causes damage similar to natural disasters on Earth.

"From a public policy perspective, it is quite significant that we have begun the extremely challenging task of assessing space weather impacts in a quantitative way," said Daniel Baker, professor and director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder. Baker chaired the panel that prepared the report.

"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," said Baker. "We were delighted that NASA helped support bringing together dozens of world experts from industry and government to share their experiences and begin planning of improved public policy strategies."

The sun is currently near the minimum of its 11-year activity cycle. It is expected that solar storms will increase in frequency and intensity toward the next solar maximum, expected to occur around 2012.

The Heliophysics Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington provided funding for the study. The division seeks to understand the sun, its solar processes and the interaction of solar plasma and radiation with Earth, other planets and the universe.

Understanding the connections between the sun and its planets will allow better prediction on the impacts of solar activity on humans, technological systems and even the presence of life itself in the universe.

The National Academies are chartered by Congress to provide independent technical and scientific advice to the federal government.

For images related to the study and more information about the Heliophysics Division, visit: http://nasascience.nasa.gov/heliophysics

To view the National Academy of Sciences' complete report, visit: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12507.html

WEATHER NOTE

Satellites Used To Measure Inland Floods

ScienceDaily (Dec. 23, 2008) — Satellites that were designed to measure sea level over the world's oceans can serve a valuable purpose over land, a new study has found. Researchers used NASA's TOPEX/Poseidon satellite and the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite to measure the height and extent of flooding in North America, South America, and Asia.

The study shows that satellites can supplement the measurements that the United States Geological Survey (USGS) gathers from flood gauges on the ground -- at little or no cost, said C.K. Shum, professor of earth sciences at Ohio State University.

"After a flood, we can look back at the satellite data to pinpoint when the flood began, and find out how far the flood waters extended, which is really important for flood modeling," he said.

Satellites such as TOPEX/Poseidon measure the height of land or water by bouncing radio signals off of surfaces and measuring how long the signals take to return.

Rough surfaces scatter some of the signal in other directions, and cause errors in a satellite's on board tracking system. This often happens over land. Scientists use "re-tracking" software to fix the errors, and make the satellite's measurements more precise.

That's what the Ohio State software does -- it re-tracks the satellite data, but in a way that enables detailed measurements of water on land.

The key to the software is an algorithm that can tell the difference between water and snow cover. Ohio State postdoctoral researcher Hyongki Lee developed the algorithm and graduate student Manman Zhang applied the algorithm for her doctoral thesis.

Zhang presented the work in a poster session at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

Shum, Zhang, and their colleagues used the software to process TOPEX/Poseidon data from the 1997 Red River flood in the upper Midwest of the United States, an area with abundant farmland and wetlands. They detected flooded regions within four river basins: the Red River Basin in North Dakota and Minnesota; the Missouri River Basin in North Dakota and South Dakota; and the Minnesota River Basin and the Mississippi River Basin, both in Minnesota and Iowa.

The flood happened in April of that year, as winter snows began to melt. Zhang's algorithm differentiated between the scattered radar signal produced by water and by areas still covered by snow. As the floodwaters began to move down the Red River, the satellite measurements provided estimates of flood levels.

After re-tracking, the satellite data agreed with USGS ground measurements taken at the time. For example, the software determined that flood waters in Grand Forks, North Dakota, rose 20 feet (6 meters), which matched data recorded from flood gauges there.

The researchers did the same for the June 2008 Iowa City flood that killed three people and damaged 2 million acres of farmland. They found that they could track the ebb and flow of that flood over a scale of several hours. For that part of the study, they worked with Carrie Huitger, a USGS hydrologist who supplied the flood gauge data. They performed similar studies with TOPEX/Poseidon data for a flood in the Amazon River Basin, and with ENVISAT data for a flood in southwestern Taiwan -- both with similar results.

The satellites can't be used to forecast a flood because the data isn't processed very quickly and the spatial coverage of the satellite measurements is limited, Shum explained. Even preliminary processing takes hours. But after a flood, such data can add to data collected on the ground, to help scientists better understand how floods happen.

Next, the researchers want to automate the software so that it can build an archive of flood data. Since the satellites are already in orbit collecting the data, there would be little cost beyond building the database and enabling scientists to access it.

In the future, a new satellite may enable more extensive and detailed measurements. Ohio State scientists lead an international team that has proposed the Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. The SWOT satellite will feature dual antennas that will gather high-resolution data over a much wider surface of the earth than is possible with today's satellites.

Collaborators on this project include Doug Alsdorf, associate professor of earth sciences, and Frank Schwartz, professor and Ohio Eminent Scholar in Hydrogeology.

This work was funded by the National Science Foundation and NASA.

Hail tornado severe storms lightning video Australia

MARITIME NOTE

Thousands urge rescue boat return

The crew of a Devon rescue boat is sending out its own SOS to get its vessel reinstated. A petition of 5,000 signatures is being handed in to parliament on Wednesday, saying lives are being put at risk.

The story made headlines last summer when the crew used the boat to rescue a teenage girl at Hope Cove.

The Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA), which had warned the crew that the boat was unsafe, impounded it. The MCA is due to hold talks on the issue.

The MCA later brought the boat back, with a restriction that it could be used within a certain distance from the beach in the South Hams area of Devon.

But two months ago the boat was locked away again, this time until a consultation was carried out.

The crew has said the boat is safe and fears lives are being put at risk.
MP Anthony Steen said: "The rescue boat had been successfully operated by four men who were able to launch the boat at a moment's notice in the event of an emergency since they worked locally.

"Now a large stretch of the south Devon coastline is suddenly without adequate sea rescue coverage."

The MCA said Hope Cove was covered by the nearby Salcombe lifeboat.
It said in a statement: "We will be consulting with stakeholders soon to discuss beach safety provision in the South Hams."

FROM HOLLAND AND KNIGHT

Singapore – comments sought re draft amendments to MARPOL Annex I The Singapore Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) issued a circular stating that it is seeking comments from owners, operators, masters, and others regarding draft interim guidelines and draft amendments to MARPOL Annex I adopted by the recent session of the IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC). The draft documents relate to: (1) the method of calculation of the energy efficiency design index for new ships; (2) the Supplement to the IOPP Certificate; (3) prevention of pollution during transfer of oil cargo between oil tankers at sea; (4) amendments to Regulations 1, 12, 13, 17, and 38; (5) the IOPP Certificate; and (6) the Oil Record Book. The draft amendments are expected to be adopted at the next session of the MEPC, scheduled for July 2009. Shipping Circular No. 5 of 2009 (1/6/09).

UK – report on container ship-fishing vessel collision The UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) issued the summary of its preliminary examination of a collision between a container ship and a fishing vessel that occurred in good weather off Lizard Point on 18 September 2008. Visibility from the bridge of the container ship was impaired. Neither vessel was maintaining a good lookout or making proper use of their radar. (1/6/09).

UK – contract awarded for MSC NAPOLI wreck removal The UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) issued a press notice stating that a contract has been awarded for removal of the stern section of the wreck of the MSC NAPOLI. The scrap is to be delivered to a recovery facility in the Netherlands. (1/6/09).

RS

NOAA Declares Buffalo Bills as First StormReady® Supporter Team in NFL

2009-01-21T00:01:00.006-05:00

NOAA Declares Buffalo Bills as First StormReady® Supporter Team in NFL

NOAA is proud to announce the Buffalo Bills as the first National Football League team to become a StormReady® Supporter. With this designation the Bills are better prepared for severe weather and to make fans and spectators at Ralph Wilson Stadium aware of such events.

To achieve this status, the Bills organization met rigorous guidelines, which include developing severe weather safety plans, actively promoting severe weather safety through awareness activities and conducting safety training.

“The StormReady Supporter program was designed to help non-government organizations improve communications and safety skills needed to save lives while strengthening partnerships with NOAA's National Weather Service and local emergency management,” said Mickey Brown, deputy director of the National Weather Service Eastern Region. “The Buffalo Bills really scored a touchdown by being the first National Football League team in the country to be a StormReady® Supporter and creating a safer environment for all Buffalo Bill fans.”

StormReady® Supporter is a component of the nationwide StormReady® preparedness program that helps communities develop severe weather and flooding response plans with NOAA's National Weather Service and local emergency managers. Since the StormReady® program began in 1999, more than 1,300 U.S. communities have become StormReady®.
Buffalo Bills' Ralph Wilson Stadium.

“The Buffalo Bills are honored to be the first NFL team to achieve the StormReady® status,” said Joe Frandina, vice president of stadium operations for the Bills. “We feel this is another important step in making our stadium as safe as possible for our fans.”

The StormReady® program is part of NOAA National Weather Service's working partnership with the International Association of Emergency Managers and the National Emergency Management Association. NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources

WEATHER NOTE

Red Cross offers tips to recover emotionally after disaster

SEATTLE - The American Red Cross is reminding people not to overlook the emotional aspect of recovery after the devastating floods.

The Red Cross says disasters are upsetting experiences for everyone involved, but children, senior citizens, people with disabilities and people for whom English is not their first language are especially at risk. Some elderly people may seem disoriented at first and children may be afraid.
"When disaster strikes, a child's view of the world as a safe and predictable place is temporarily lost," said Lyle O'Neel, Red Cross disaster mental health worker. "Children become afraid that the event will happen again. How a parent or other adult reacts to a child following any traumatic event can help children recover more quickly and more completely."

The Red Cross says it’s important to let children and elderly people know that they are safe and that you will help them find a safe place to stay.

Some basic steps you can take:

- Try to return to as many of your personal and family routines as possible.
- Get rest and drink plenty of water.
- Limit your exposure to the sights and sounds of disaster, especially on television, the radio and in the newspapers.
- Focus on the positive.
- Recognize your own feelings.
- Reach out and accept help from others.
- Do something you enjoy. Do something as a family that you have all enjoyed in the past.
- Stay connected with your family and/or other support systems.
- Realize that recovery can take time.

Take care of your pets

If you have pets, try to find and comfort them. A scared animal may react by biting or scratching. Handle animals carefully and calmly. Pets can become upset and react in unusual ways, such as spraying urine, defecating on floors or scratching/biting furnishings.
Since pets will need regular care and attention to help them calm down, try to leave pets with a family member, friend, veterinarian or boarding facility while you are cleaning up your home. Animals are naturally inquisitive and could get injured if they are brought back to a damaged home.

- Use toys, a blanket or favorite human's unsoiled clothing to comfort pets.
- Make sure pets are fed their usual diet, and have plenty of water.
- Visit your pets regularly, speak calmly and take some time out to play with them. Doing so can help you in your recovery, as well.

How you can help

To help residents who have been affected by the Washington State flooding please go to http://www.seattleredcross.org/show.aspx?mi=4861 to make a secure online donation or call 1-800-REDCROSS. Checks can be made payable to the American Red Cross Serving King & Kitsap Counties, P.O. Box 3097, Seattle, WA 98114.

NWS CHICAGO

January 19-20 Snowfall Reports

MARITIME NOTE

Coast Guard says rescues still key mission

WASHINGTON, Jan. 13 (UPI) -- The U.S. Coast Guard says that it is not shirking rescues at sea despite a government report that found it was spending more effort on homeland security tasks.

The inspector general for the Department of Homeland Security said in a report issued last week that there had been "clear trend toward emphasizing homeland security missions" that could make it more difficult for the Coast Guard to carry out its traditional safety roles.

USA Today said Tuesday that Coast Guard commanders saw the conclusions as misleading and that its boats and aircraft still spend plenty of time on non-homeland security tasks.

"Our priority has always been and will continue to be saving lives," Coast Guard spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Christopher O'Neil told the newspaper.

A major finding of the disputed report was a decrease in the number of rescue operations from around 84,000 in 2001 to 60,000 in 2007 at a time the Coast Guard's ranks were growing. The report also noted the Coast Guard was spending more time patrolling U.S. fishing waters and intercepting boatloads of illegal immigrants.

From Holland and Knight

DHS OIG – review of USCG mission performance

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Inspector General (OIG) issued it annual review of the US Coast Guard’s mission performance for fiscal year 2007. The report shows that performance is largely unchanged from the previous year. The agency met six of its eleven performance targets, the same as 2006. Non-homeland security mission resource hours decreased, while homeland security mission resource hours increased. OIG-09-13 (1/9/09).

Heavy Rolling and My Seesaw

RS

Met Office mystery over rare ice circle formed in Devon

2009-01-20T00:01:00.004-05:00

Met Office mystery over rare ice circle formed in Devon

An unusual rotating ice circle, normally found in the cooler rivers of Scandinavia or North America, has formed in the UK waterways.

The cause of the rare phenomenon is unclear, with very little scientific evidence available to explain the formation of the discs. UFO-enthusiasts claim that, like crop circles, the perfect discs are created by visiting aliens, but scientists believe the extreme cold weather combined with an unusual current is the more likely reason.

The 10ft disc was seen by a rambler on the River Otter in Devon, who estimated that it was spinning through 360 degrees every four minutes.

The Meteorological Office said today that they could not explain why the ice circle appeared last week.

“We’re kind of a bit stumped to be honest,” a spokesman said. “Our best guess, and it is a guess, would be that it was formed by some kind of a circular eddy set up in the river. We have not seen anything like this before and we’ve no idea why they seem to be more common in Scandinavia.”

The disc was spotted on January 7 as temperatures in southern England reached as low as minus 10C. The freeze caused unusual behaviour amongst British wildlife, which is ill prepared for such conditions. The rare cold snap may also have caused the ice formation, which has been recently recorded and investigated in the US and Sweden.

Mystery has surrounded the discs since they were first described as long ago as the nineteenth century. A drawing of an ice circle was published in the Scientific American in 1895. Illustrated London News also catalogued one that formed near Toronto in 1930 under the headline “Jack Frost describes a circle”.

The lack of a clear explanation from the scientific community allowed conspiracy theorists to add the ice circles to the annals of “unexplained phenomena” until 1993 when MIT attempted to end the debate.

Ice circles began to form on the Charles River in Cambridge, Massachusetts, which runs through the MIT campus, prompting scientists at the university to study their formation. David Ricks, an ocean engineering graduate, helped systematically rule out effluent from submerged pipes, down draughts from helicopters, alien activity, bubbles from decomposition and underwater springs.

He concluded that eddies from the Harvard bridge caused parts of the sheet ice to break away and the movement of the ice created circular holes which were filled by further ice formation. Other theories suggest that slow moving rivers can create eddies which spin the ice until it takes on a circular shape.

Photographs of the phenomenon emerged from Russia recently, and it appears that the discs are quite common in Norway as well as Sweden, where they have been recorded on the River Ljusnan measuring up to 200m wide, as well as on the River Pite and on Lake Hotagssjon.

WEATHER NOTE

Flooding like that which devastated the North of England last year is set to become a common event across the UK in the next 75 years, new research has shown.

Flooding like that which devastated the North of England last year is set to become a common event across the UK in the next 75 years, new research has shown.

A study by Dr Hayley Fowler, of Newcastle University, predicts that severe storms - the likes of which currently occur every five to 25 years across the UK - will become more common and more severe in a matter of decades.

Looking at 'extreme rainfall events' - where rain falls steadily and heavily for between one and five days - the study predicts how the intensity of these storms may change in the future.

Dr Fowler found that across the UK, the amount of rain falling during one of these extreme events was likely to increase by up to 30 per cent by 2080. This increase is most likely to occur in autumn, winter and spring when the ground is already saturated, posing the biggest threat of flooding.

Dr Fowler, Reader in Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle, explained: "Predicting how extreme rainfall might change many years in the future is very difficult because events can be quite localised, especially in the summer.

"You only have to think about how difficult it is for the Met office to predict the weather two or three days in advance - the overall picture for the country tends to stay the same but local weather patterns can change quite dramatically.

"By taking a much more detailed look at the results from different regional climate models, we have created a more accurate picture of how wet Britain will be by 2070.

"What the data quite clearly shows is that we're going to see far more of these extreme downpours in years to come, putting more and more homes at risk from flooding, particularly in autumn and winter months when the ground is already saturated."

The research, published online today in the International Journal of Climatology, looks at changes to seasonal extreme rainfall across the UK by 2070-2100.

Dr Fowler, who worked on the study with Dr Marie Ekstrom from Exeter University, examined seasonal rainfall data from 13 Regional Climate Models for nine regions across the UK and used this to study the projected changes.

Consistent with global warming, the team found that as the air becomes warmer and is able to hold more moisture, Britain will get wetter.

In general, the study suggests larger changes to the intensity of short duration extreme rainfall events - those lasting one or two days. Northern and western regions of the UK are predicted to be worst hit.

Dr Fowler added: "Unfortunately, we still have least confidence in the model's predictions for the summer months and it is still highly uncertain how summer flash flooding such as the Hull and Hereford and Worcester floods in 2007 will change.

"What our data does show is that floods are no longer going to be freak events. All 13 models we looked at predict increases in extreme rainfall in winter, autumn and spring by the 2080s although the percent increase varies.

"This has major implications for flood risk management. We need to be looking now at where we build new homes, drainage systems and water storage in order to protect our homes and businesses from flooding in the future."

Episodes of short-term extreme rainfall - such as was seen in Morpeth in 2008 - are predicted to increase in intensity by between 15 and 30 per cent.

In winter, one day downpours are predicted to increase in intensity in all regions with Scotland and northern England seeing changes of more than 20 per cent. Smaller increases are projected for southern regions, particularly south-east England.

In autumn, some regional climate models project potentially very large increases in extreme rainfall, with a rise of up to 60 per cent in some regions such as north-west England.

Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by the Newcastle University

MARITIME NOTE

Stranded men call pub for rescue

Two Frenchmen who became stranded on a Cornish cliff with their dog have been rescued after calling a pub for help.

The trio were cut off by the tide in Trebarwith Strand, but did not know who to call for assistance, the Maritime and Coastguard Agency said.

The men decided to call a directory inquiry service and ask for the number of a pub they had passed earlier in the day - The Port William, near Tintagel.

Dozens of people went outside the pub with their pints to watch the rescue.
Pub owner Sue Sleight, 56, said the men were unable to pinpoint their exact location.

"We picked up the phone and the signal wasn't very good, and obviously they were foreign," she said.

"I thought he was saying the road was closed and he wanted to know how to get to the pub, because he kept saying he was stuck.

"But I soon realised he was on the beach. We went out but couldn't see anything, and we thought we just had to phone the coastguard.

"To be honest, if we hadn't phoned the coastguard, they could have been there all night. The coastguard were just brilliant."

The RNLI lifeboat from Port Isaac and Boscastle coastguard rescue team were called out to search the cliffs near Trebarwith Strand and the men, aged 21 and 35, were found, along with their dog.

A Royal Navy helicopter from Culdrose lifted them from the cliffs. All were unharmed. Peter Bullard, watch manager at Falmouth Coastguard, said: "The two French men were unaware of the 999 or 112 emergency numbers and so decided to call a pub that they had passed on the way to the beach.

"It's very fortunate that we found them as quickly as we did."

RS

New Power Line De-icing System Developed

2009-01-19T00:01:00.007-05:00

New Power Line De-icing System Developed

(From Storm Reports. Org )

ScienceDaily (Jan. 13, 2009) — Dartmouth engineering professor and entrepreneur Victor Petrenko—along with his colleagues at Dartmouth and at Ice Engineering LLC in Lebanon, N.H.—have invented a way to cheaply and effectively keep ice off power lines.

The new proprietary technology is called a variable resistance cable (VRC) de-icing system. With only minor cable modifications plus some off-the-shelf electronics, the system switches the electrical resistance of a standard power line from low to high. The high resistance automatically creates heat to melt ice build-up or keep it from forming in the first place.

"The beauty of the VRC system is that it's fully customizable and is an affordable addition to the current manufacturing and installation process," said Gabriel Martinez, Ice Engineering's Vice President who studied under Professor Petrenko while earning his M.S. in engineering sciences from Dartmouth. "And it works without causing any service interruption whatsoever," he added.

"The technology builds on many years of research in materials science, power electronics, and ice physics with my colleagues at Dartmouth such as Professor Charles Sullivan, an expert in power electronics and a co-inventor of the VRC de-icer," said Petrenko who is founder, Chief Technology Officer and Chairman of the Board of Ice Engineering.

Ice Engineering plans to install and test a full-scale VRC system prototype on a section of power line in Orenburg, Russia, in late January 2009. The company is also currently negotiating full-scale installations of VRC in other regions of Russia and in China.

Martinez says the changes in manufacturing and installation required to implement the VRC system would result in a less than 10 percent increase in overall cost. Since utility companies normally replace 3 percent of their cables every year, the system could be installed as part of the regularly scheduled maintenance process and still achieve a significant portion of the installation by the time the next major storm hits.

Furthermore, the life span of the de-icing system would match or exceed the life-span of the utility cable, approximately 30–50 years. The system would pay for itself during the next storm by practically eliminating the cost of fixing downed cables and power outages due to ice and snow, according to Martinez.

Another benefit to the VRC system is that utility companies using the system would have full control over its functionality, says Martinez. Time, temperature, and location can all be adjusted manually or set and controlled automatically with electronic sensors.

Ice Engineering in Lebanon, N.H. develops and licenses technology and applications that enable products that interact with ice and snow to perform significantly better than ever before. Dartmouth engineering professor Victor Petrenko is the primary inventor of the technology. Ice Engineering was founded by Petrenko as a Delaware LLC in April of 2001 to commercialize the technology in specific industries.

Weather Note

NOAA Twin Otter Aircraft to Support West Coast Ocean Research, Management

Highly capable plane will be based in Monterey, Calif.
January 12, 2009

Senior federal officials today dedicated a specially equipped twin-engine NOAA aircraft that will support ocean research and management along the West Coast. The NOAA Office of Marine and Aviation Operations is basing the plane and flight crew in Monterey, Calif., to meet the needs of NOAA programs and national marine sanctuaries.

NOAA will use the DHC-6 Twin Otter aircraft to observe marine mammals and other living ocean resources, conduct offshore and coastal surveys, and support emergency response and enforcement missions.

“The highly modified aircraft is well-suited for offshore and coastal surveys and marine resource management,” said John H. Dunnigan, NOAA assistant administrator for the National Ocean Service. “We are pleased that this valuable asset will serve the West Coast.”

Built by de Havilland Canada, the Twin Otter is a maneuverable, versatile aircraft that can be flown at slow speeds and in tight circles. The NOAA version of this high-winged turboprop plane is equipped with color weather radar, dual GPS/Loran-C navigation systems, radar altimeter, and camera ports in the nose and belly areas. A standard flight crew consists of two pilots and up to six scientists.

By basing the aircraft in Monterey, NOAA will have the ability to quickly monitor and protect the waters off the West Coast and Alaska, including five national marine sanctuaries that encompass more than 9,000 square nautical miles of open ocean and remote, rugged coastlines from Washington to the Mexico border. They include Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary in Washington, Cordell Bank and Gulf of the Farallones national marine sanctuaries off San Francisco, Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, and Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary off Santa Barbara.

As part of the NOAA fleet of research and survey ships and aircraft, the NOAA Twin Otter will be operated, managed and maintained by NOAA Corps officers and civilians with the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center. Specific research instrumentation or remote sensing technologies will be supplied by program scientists.NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

Top International Weather Events: 2008

Guest contributor Robert Henson recently ran down his selection of highest impact U.S. weather events of 2008 (1-5, 6-10), while CWG's Ann Posegate reviewed her choice of last year's top D.C. area weather stories.

Weather, of course, knows no boundaries. Year in and year out, extreme weather from around the world offers a treasure trove of fascinating phenomena, many of which have sobering consequences for those in harm's way. International weather can also have significant impacts in the U.S.

Keep reading for my selection of the top 2008 international weather events...

For example, floods and droughts in agricultural centers around the globe can lead to food shortages and price increases in supermarkets here; tropical storms that devastate foreign lands can mean massive U.S. financial aid, ultimately affecting your taxes; and ocean storms can disrupt shipping of imports and exports (and provide great waves for surfing in California and Hawaii!).

I don't ascribe significance to the ordering, since generally I find it too difficult to judge the importance of any single event -- both weather conditions and impacts on human activities, life and property must go into such judgements. Note, too, that I'm avoiding (for now) the question that some might ask about possible links between extreme weather events and climate change.
Cyclone Nargis, a monstrous Category 4 hurricane that developed over the North Indian Ocean, struck Burma (also known as Myanmar) on May 2.

It was not only 2008's most deadly tropical cyclone (estimated 150,000 people killed), but also believed to be second only to Typhoon Nina (1975) as the deadliest named storm on record. See these posts on Nargis from the Capital Weather Gang: Inside the Burma Cyclone and Bangladesh's Example for a Post-Nargis World.

On March 1-2 heavy rains accompanied by hurricane force winds (up to an estimated 125 mph) ripped across central Europe. Thirteen people were killed along the storm's trail of destruction (tens of millions of dollars), which included cars blown off roads, roofs ripped off houses, thousands of felled trees, and bridges collapsed into flooded rivers. It was this storm that led to the near crash (and remarkable, must-see video) of a Lufthansa Airbus A320 as it attempted to land at Hamburg International Airport during high winds.

Flooding of the Kosi River, between Nepal and India, on Sept. 2, 2008 (top), and pre-flood conditions in June (bottom). Courtesy NOAA. Click here to enlarge image.

The 2008 Southeast Asian Monsoon season started earlier than it has in more than a century, and was among the deadliest and most destructive seasons on record. Massive flooding from torrential monsoon rains between June and September resulted in 2,600 deaths and displaced millions of people from inundated villages throughout southern Asia, including India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Vietnam.

Tropical Cyclone Ivan, a borderline Category 4 hurricane, slammed into Madagascar on Feb. 17. Ivan has been described as one of the strongest ever to hit the island nation off the southeastern coast of Africa. It was blamed for at least 22 deaths.

Between Jan. 25 and Feb. 26, a series of winter storms walloped large portions of southern and central China with heavy snow, icing and extreme cold. The winter weather -- China's worst in half a century -- is blamed for 129 deaths and caused massive disruptions in power and transportation, just as millions of Chinese were traveling through the country in celebration of the Chinese New Year.

In South America, a large part of Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay experienced a prolonged and intense drought during most of 2008, which caused severe damage to agriculture. Heavy rainfall in November caused severe flooding and deadly mudslides in southern Brazil. In what is considered the country's worst weather disaster ever, dozens were left dead and millions isolated in cities behind overflowing rivers.

Widespread heavy rains with severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, hail, and flash floods occurred across much of Australia in November. These events largely ended a long-term drought characterized by severe water shortages and extensive crop failures.Though I've not found it on any list of top weather events of 2008, my sentimental favorite goes to the remarkable and unusual hail (or was it snow?) storm in the vicinity of Exeter in southwest England.

MARITIME NOTE

Scientists Launch First-Ever Exploration of Antarctica's Deep-Sea Vents

Also see Stunning Photos of Antarctica

COMMUNITY NEWS British Antarctic Survey scientists and colleagues from the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, the Zoological Society of London and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in the USA are set to be the first to investigate in detail the creatures living around hot water vents surrounding the coldest continent, Antarctica.

The team is onboard the BAS research ship the RRS James Clark Ross on a voyage to locate and explore life around two poorly understood deep-sea habitats — hydrothermal vents and cold seeps. The five-week NERC-funded project called ChESSO, or Chemosynthetic EcoSystems in the Southern Ocean, is part of a ten-year scientific initiative known as the Census of Marine Life.
The research cruise begins on 14 January and finishes on 18 February.
They will be reporting regularly on classroomatsea.net

American Meteorological Society Recognizes Navy ContributionStory

PHOENIX, Ariz. (NNS) -- The commander of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command (NMOC), was named one of 28 new Fellows of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), the nation's leading professional society for scientists in the atmospheric and related sciences, at the AMS Annual meeting in Phoenix Jan. 12.Rear Adm. David W. Titley, along with other awardees, will be recognized at a banquet Jan. 14. The Fellow is given to an individual for recognition of outstanding contributions to the atmospheric or related oceanic or hydrologic sciences, or their applications, during a substantial period of years.

Only two-tenths of one percent of AMS membership is approved as Fellow each year. "I am humbled to be named an AMS Fellow. As a professional meteorologist, this is a significant honor for me," Titley said. Titley earned a doctorate in meteorology at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., on tropical cyclone intensification.A native of Schenectady, N.Y., Titley was commissioned through the Naval Reserve Officers Training Commissioning program, after graduating from Pennsylvania State University. He earned a master's in meteorology and oceanography at the Naval Postgraduate School.

He attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Seminar XXI on Foreign Politics, International Relations and National Interest from September 2003 to June 2004.Titley's awards include the Legion of Merit, Meritorious Service Medal, Navy Commendation Medal, Navy Achievement Medal, and various unit and service awards. All awards were presented by the U.S. Navy and awarded throughout his 28-year career.NMOC, based at Stennis Space Center, Miss., is a Navy operational command with about 3,500 military and civilian personnel worldwide. The command provides weather and ocean forecasts and geospatial information and services for Navy operations.

Founded in 1919, the AMS has a membership of more than 12,000 professionals, professors, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes nine atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic journals, sponsors multiple conferences annually, and directs numerous education and outreach programs and services. For more news from Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command, visit www.navy.mil/local/cnmoc/.

Container Vessel Crashes Into Barrier Reef

A cargo ship is tonight lodged on Belize’s barrier reef system. It is the Westerhaven – a Netherlands registered vessel that left Belize last night enroute to Santo Tomas in Guatemala. It should have been there by now but while leaving Belize it ran into bad weather and ran aground. 7NEWS travelled 32 miles from the city to the accident site and tonight we’ll show you the ship and underwater footage of the damage it did as it tore through Belize’s reef.

Keith Swift Reporting, We found the Westerhaven cargo ship where it has been since last night – stuck on the reef 32 miles from Belize City in an area near Caye Glory. It ran aground on the reef while sailing out of Belize enroute to Guatemala. This afternoon we met the coast guard on site with an assessment team.

Direl Garrido, Coast Guard“We were called out to assist the DOE and an assessment team to come and check the vessel that grounded here.”

Keith Swift,Have you been on the boat?

Direl Garrido,“No, no.”

Keith Swift,Have you spoken to anyone who has been on the boat?

Direl Garrido,“No sir, nothing. All the information we get from our headquarters.”

Keith Swift,So it is lodged on the reef?

Direl Garrido,“It is aground on the reef, yes.”

Keith Swift,Do you know what efforts are being made to move it?

Direl Garrido,“Right now the assessment team is just conducting an assessment and then based on the result then they will make a decision.”

As the footage shows- it is a large vessel – estimated to be about 100 meters long. A massive ship and it did extensive damage. Marine scientist Melanie McField accompanied us on the boat to the accident site and she says a large area of pristine reef has been destroyed. This is underwater footage she shot with her camera. She says it is the worst reef accident she has ever seen.

Melanie McField, Marine Scientist“This is by far the worst I have ever seen. I’ve never seen anything like this. It is unbelievable. I even saw blast fishing in Indonesia and this looks much worse because it is the whole area.

The reef has been completely levelled, basically from the stern to after the boat. It seems as if the boat just came in on top of, you know the reef has these spurs, it is like hills of corals, valleys of sand, and all the hills of corals have just been scraped clean, levelled. I have never seen anything like it; usually damage is a little bit spotty. And down there near the front of the boat there are areas where big coral heads are knocked over but here in the middle, the whole think is flattened, actually levelled like a parking lot.”

Keith Swift,And what is the size of the area we’re talking about?

Melanie McField,“Well it is basically it is the length of the boat, maybe a little bit less. The two ends aren’t quite as bad. The length of the boat and then out to at least this point where we are here so that’s bigger than a football field.”And as bad as it is – McField the damage has been done and it should be easily moved.

Melanie McField,“There are a few places where it actually pushed into the reef, the spurs as you get towards the reef crest there are a little bit lower but the boat is just pushed on to about two of them so I don’t think they are going to have a lot of trouble getting it off because as you pull it out there is nothing to block the path, all the coral is gone so it should be fairly easy to take it off. It is in a weird position because it is sideways to the current but I don’t think it will be too bad. All of this is levelled so they are not going to hurt much if they pull it off this way.”

Keith Swift,How far is this from the channel?

Melanie McField,“Well they came out the English Caye channel. I don’t know what the legal distance is offshore that they are supposed to travel but they shouldn’t have been travelling anywhere close to the reef crest, especially at night and they should have known where that was with their GPS equipment.”

The ship’s owner – who we are told is on his way to Belize – will be more than likely be fined but McField says no dollar amount can measure the damage.

Melanie McField,“Each square meter of reef is worth something like US$2,000. I haven’t calculated yet but we’ll get out the numbers and it is a lot of square meters that is damaged here and so there should be a considerable fine.”

Keith Swift,What will be the effect on the wider reef system?

Melanie McField,“Well the rest of the reef system, there is some sedimentation coming off of the pulverized reef but that’s pretty negligible. The main thing is that we’ve lost some important habitat. This is really healthy reef. We don’t have a lot of healthy reef, the eco-system report card that we came out with earlier this year was pretty bleak; most of our reef is in poor condition. But this particular chunk of reef is pretty healthy.

This is not the first time it has happened. There was the grounding of a cargo ship back in late November and I think we really need to be tough on our regulations and with Coast Guard, Port Authority, Fisheries, and DOE and get everyone to really come down on these ships. I don’t understand why this is happening.”

The assessment team was still onboard the ship when we left. The ship’s agent in Belize is Eurocaribe Shipping. As we mentioned it was bound for Guatemala and had stopped in Belize for only 4 hours to drop off a few containers. It is registered in the Netherlands and the captain was Fritz Schroeder. It is of note that this is only Schroeder’s 3rd trip as the captain of the Westerhaven to Belize. The owner is on his way to Belize. Tomorrow he is expected to hire a salvage company to tow the ship off the reef.

On a final note – if we use Melanie McField’s math – the ship damaged 10,000 meters of reef which would amount to US$20 million. McField is a marine research scientist with 18 years experience.

RS

Tips To Prevent Frostbite During These Sub-zero Temperatures

2009-01-17T00:01:00.005-05:00

Tips To Prevent Frostbite During These Sub-zero Temperatures

ScienceDaily (Jan. 15, 2009) — Severe temperatures are hitting most of the country this week, but cold weather is no excuse to sit inside over the long winter months.

If you do go outside for some fresh air and exercise, make sure to guard yourself from frostbite.

When body tissues are frostbitten, skin cells become damaged—sometimes permanently.

Therefore, the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) has some suggestions to help keep your skin safe from the cold.

“It takes only minutes for exposed skin to become frostbitten if the temperature falls below 20 degrees Fahrenheit and the wind is blowing at 20 miles per hour or more,” says Taizoon Baxamusa, MD, spokesperson for the AAOS.

“Your hands, fingers, feet, toes, and ears are especially susceptible, so you need to take special care protecting them.”

Frostbitten areas may feel numb or hard and frozen, and may appear waxy, white, or grayish. Symptoms such as cold sensitivity, numbness, or chronic pain may last for years after an incident of frostbite; in extreme cases, the frostbitten tissue may be permanently damaged and need to be amputated.

The AAOS offers the following tips to help prevent frostbite:

Dress appropriately.

Light, loose, layered clothing provides both ventilation and insulation. Top your outfit with a water-repellent (not waterproof) fabric.

Additionally, check for gaps in your clothing (such as between your glove and sleeve) that might expose bare skin to the cold.

Take special care to protect your head, hands and feet. Substantial heat loss occurs through the scalp, so head coverings are vital.

Mittens are warmer than gloves, and two pair of socks (wool over lightweight cotton) will help keep your feet warm.

If you plan on being out in the cold for a prolonged period, do not drink or smoke. Alcohol, caffeine and nicotine leave the skin more prone to thermal injury.

If you get wet, get inside and remove the wet clothing as quickly as possible.

Check yourself every half-hour or so for signs of frostbite. If your toes, fingers, ears or other body parts feel numb, get inside.

If you do get frostbite, you should seek medical attention. Should you be unable to see a physician immediately, follow these tips to prevent further injury: Get to a warm room as soon as possible and call for medical assistance. You can have warm drinks, such as broth or tea.

Rest the injured areas (avoid walking on frostbitten feet, for example) and elevate them slightly.
Take off any wet or restrictive clothing.

Warm the affected area by immersing it in warm (NOT HOT) water for at least 30 to 45 minutes, or until it feels warm and sensation returns. During warming, you may feel severe pain and the injured area may swell and change color.

Do not do anything that will further injure the frostbitten tissue. Leave blisters intact, and cover them with a sterile or clean cloth until you are seen by a physician.

Do not rub the area with your hands, with snow, or with anything else.

Do not start to warm the affected area if there is any chance that it will be exposed to the cold again.

Do not use dry heat, such as from a heating pad, sunlamp, fire, or radiator, to try to warm the area. Because the skin is numb and will not feel the heat, it can easily be burned.

Remember Stay Safe! Its that important!
RS

The day a F4 tornado hit Wallingford Conneticut

2009-01-16T02:01:00.000-05:00

The day a F4 tornado hit Wallingford Conneticut

AMERICAN STANDARD - BOSTON, MA - AUGUST 15TH 1878

( FROM THE HISTORY CELLAR BLOG )

Greetings. In this 1878 paper I found a article on a tornado disaster that I was not aware of. In 1953 a massive tornado hit Worcester MA which is now the deadliest tornado to hit New England. This Connecticut tornado had that title until then.

If you look at this chart from the USA TODAY, it is not unusual when tornado's hit this area, but it is at this magnitude. The article below is slightly difficult to read - it is transcribed below at the end of this post. Also there are some interesting photos and engravings below of the disaster.

The Wallingford Tornado was the deadliest tornado ever to strike the state of Connecticut, and the second deadliest ever in New England. It struck the town of Wallingford, Connecticut on August 9, 1878. The violent tornado destroyed most of the town, killing 34 people and injuring at least 70, many severely.[1] The tornado started as a waterspout over Community Lake, just west of town.

It then moved through the center of town along Christian Street, damaging almost every structure as it went. The tornado tore houses from their foundations, throwing some more than 600 feet (180 meters).

A receipt from the town was later found 65 miles (105 km) east in Peacedale, Rhode Island.[2]A district schoolhouse was converted into a temporary morgue immediately after the storm; 21 bodies were discovered and placed there that night. One person was found dead 3300 feet (1 km) from where he had been standing.[3]More than 50 special police were sworn in to prevent looting, and to control the crowds of curious onlookers who had come by train from surrounding cities.[4]

DESTRUCTIVE STORM!

Great Loss of Life and ProperlyHouses, Barns and Trees Hurled tothe Ground.Wallingford, Conn, AUG 9, A terribletornado passed over Wallingford about sixo'clock this afternoon, and blew overhouses, uprooted trees, and caused thegreatest devastation. It is estimated thatthe killed will number at present at leastwhile the wounded will reach twicethat number.

Telegraph wires and poleswere blown down, making it impossible; tocommunicate with New Haven or thesouth or Meriden or Hartford to the north.Word was finally sent by the up 7 o'clocktrain to the two latter places, and on thenext down express, which leaves Meridenat 7:30 o'clock. came physicians and help.

The greatest excitement prevails, and thewildest rumors are afloat as to the loss oflife. The tornado was confined to a belt ofterritory about half a mile wide, and thewhole loss of life took place on the sandplains about a quarter mile north of therailroad station, near the line of the NewYork, New Haven and Hartford Railroad.At 6 o'clock, while the men were leaving the factory, a gentle rain began to fall, andsoon increased to a perfect deluge, whilealmost continuous arid vivid lightningilluminated the darkened sky as bright asday, and the thunder rolled with an unceasingand deafening roar.

Without warning,the tornado, with hail and rain, sweptacross the northern part of the town, fromwest to cast, anti everything movable in itscourse was carried away. It seemed to lastbut a moment, but the results were fright-ful.

Afterward a light rain fell, and thissoon ceased, and at 8 o'clock the moonshone brightly down upon a scene of desolation.By actual count, forty dwellinghouses were demolished, and at least fifty barns.

WEATHER NOTE

What the storm has wrought’
By Paulita RoaPast Speaks

THE recent flood that hit Cagayan de Oro in the early morning of Saturday, January 3, 2009 brought back stories that old families had of a bigger deluge that happened 93 years ago on January, 1916. A strong typhoon brought continuous heavy rain for three days (some said that it rained for 16 days) to the town. The Kagay-anons found this unusual for Cagayan then was never visited by typhoons.

Arroyo Watch: Sun.Star blog on President Arroyo [1]

In that 1916 typhoon, the Cagayan River overflowed its banks. The waters entered the cogon areas of Macasandig, past the coconut grooves till it reached Camaman-an and the present site of the Cogon public market. In the Poblacion, all of Divisoria and Pabayo St. (then known as Calle Nueva), were underwater. Residents had to navigate around that area by boats. Many people died or went missing during the flood including a great number of animals. Farmlands were leveled and crops destroyed.

When the flood waters receded, the town smelled from the stench of the rotting animal carcasses. There was a severe lack of potable drinking water and sanitation was a big problem.

Then cholera came and spread throughout Cagayan.

At that time, a young 32 year old American named Dr. Frank Laubach was living in Cagayan with his wife Effa, a nurse, and their sons in Calle Burgos near the river. He was the first missionary sent to establish a mission station here by the American Presbyterian Board. The two chapels that he built in Bonbon and in Barra were washed away by the flood. The Laubachs did all they can to help the sick and the grieving families. He also dispatched his group of young people to the Municipio to assist in sending information on ways to sanitize their houses to prevent cholera from spreading.

Cholera then turned into epidemic proportions and many people were dying daily. A relative recalled that his granduncle attended the funeral of a cholera victim and 24 hours later, he also died of the same disease and was buried at once. The death count was so high that corpses were placed in carromatas and were buried on mass graves far away from Cagayan. A pall of heavy grief could be felt for each family lost a relative or two from cholera. It is said that after witnessing the twin tragedies, Dr. Laubach, known as a man of piety and prayer, got on his knees and dedicated the town to the most Almighty God.

Ninety three years later, another big flood visited Cagayan de Oro. Rev. Alex Eduave told his congregation that they still have to be thankful to the Lord for the deluge came early in the morning and the damage was not as massive as the 1916 flood. Had this happened at night, the calamity would have been of tragic proportions for hundreds would have died or gone missing. Many agreed with the observation of Mayor Constantino Jaraula that since much of our forests have been converted to farmlands, there are now very few big trees that can protect the city from the floods.

We need to take the necessary steps now in order to prevent a tragedy similar to the one that befell Ormoc years ago from happening here. Though the recent flood was traumatic to many of us, it was also a way of reminding us that we have to do something about our almost denuded forests before it is too late. We need to have a viable environmental program with the active participation of the citizenry so our lives, and our city as well, can be saved from another big natural disaster.

MARITIME NOTE

Fishermen question rescue response
Gloucester tragedy remains a mystery
By Stephanie Ebbert and Brian R. Ballou, Globe Staff January 9, 2009

GLOUCESTER - As Gloucester lay to rest two fishermen who died in a mysterious accident at sea, their fellow seamen raised concerns about a published report that said the Coast Guard did not launch a search-and-rescue mission for more than 2 1/2 hours after it was alerted that the vessel was in trouble.

The Coast Guard command in Boston did not begin searching for the missing boat, called the Patriot, until nearly 4 a.m. on Saturday, the Gloucester Times reported yesterday. The Fire Department had responded to a 1:17 a.m. fire alarm broadcast by the boat, discovered that the Patriot was not at port, and contacted the wife of one of the fishermen, who said he was out at sea. She then contacted the Coast Guard for help.

Coast Guard Captain Gail Kulisch, commander of the Coast Guard Sec tor in Boston, would not confirm the timeline at a news conference last night, where she said repeatedly that the Coast Guard had responded immediately but had to follow an established protocol for its response. Though the Coast Guard is conducting a case study of its response - as is routine in fatalities - the command was ready and reacted quickly, she said.

"They are always poised. They are guardians," Kulisch said. "We joined to save lives. That's what we do and we take this business very, very seriously."

The Coast Guard has learned that another vessel was in the area at the time of the accident and is investigating whether there was a collision or whether anyone witnessed what happened to the Patriot, she said.

Kulisch said the case was unusual because it was triggered by a fire alarm on the vessel and reported by a fisherman's wife. The Patriot had a device that sends out a signal in an emergency showing its location, but it did not work until hours later, when the Coast Guard was already at the scene, she said.

A Coast Guard commander told the Gloucester Times on Wednesday that the agency could not launch a response effort without knowing the boat's approximate location. But the Patriot was equipped with a vessel-monitoring system that lets the Coast Guard track its location. Since November 2006, fishermen have been required to use those tracking devices so the government can keep tabs on their whereabouts and guard against overfishing. The Patriot had broadcast signals of its location as recently as 12:30 a.m. Saturday, the Times reported.

Kulisch said that whatever happened to the Patriot appeared to have been quick: The men, both experienced fishermen, were not wearing survival gear they had on board.

Yesterday, fishermen and a lawyer who represents them questioned whether the technology used so readily by the Coast Guard to penalize fishermen for straying into protected waters could have been used more effectively to try to save the two fishermen lost at sea.

"It's kind of like wearing an ankle monitoring bracelet, so they know where you are at all times," said Stephen M. Ouellette, a lawyer whose primarily represents fishermen. "It's always tough to second-guess these people, but they spend so much time and energy chasing fishermen down for violations."

It was unclear yesterday whether the time lost would have made a difference to the fishermen in the frigid water of the Middle Bank, 15 miles off Gloucester. But some fishermen said they found the Coast Guard's response time troubling.

"The whole sinking is a mystery to begin with, but the response is rather distressing for those of us who have to rely upon the system," said Paul Cohan of Beverly, who fishes out of Gloucester.

Investigators have not determined what caused the Patriot, a well-kept, 54-foot, steel-hulled trawler, to founder. The owner, Matteo Russo, was killed along with his father-in-law and fishing partner, John Orlando. Kulisch said the Coast Guard is trying to restrict the area around the sunken boat, but the family wants to hire its own divers to investigate.

At the fishermen's funeral yesterday in Gloucester, the close-knit fishing community filled Saint Ann Church, leaving only standing room. Several men with gray facial stubble and in heavy winter jackets sat among the crowd and whispered in Italian, shaking their heads from side to side as they looked at the coffins.

Family, friends, and well-wishers paid respects to Russo, a 36-year-old father whose wife is expecting a second child, and Orlando, a 58-year old father of two.

The Rev. Ronald Gariboldi told the approximately 700 mourners that he was approached by Russo's mother moments before the funeral began. Josephine Russo looked at him with teary eyes and said her son's death was a mystery.

The service was laden with references to the industry that has characterized Gloucester. A prayer was made for those who go out to sea and those who wait for them on shore. The Gloucester Times reported that the Coast Guard in Boston, before launching a search, ordered its Gloucester station to double-check the Fire Department's conclusion that the boat was not in the port. That cost an hour, the newspaper reported.

The Times also reported that the search was delayed while officials at the Coast Guard command in Boston tried to contact the crew of the Patriot by phone and e-mail, after the wife of one of the men said he was not answering calls. A dispatcher also called the boat's former owner, who told him it had been sold, according to the Times.

Study Evaluates U.S. Maritime Policies

The Maritime Administration has issued a new study that evaluates the adequacy of current U.S. maritime policy to meet the commercial, economic, security and environmental needs of the nation over the next three decades.The report titled, ìAn Evaluation of Maritime Policy in Meeting the Commercial and Security Needs of the United States,î was researched and prepared by IHS Global Insight, Inc., of Lexington, Mass.

The 72-page report finds that current U.S. maritime policy only supports Americaís domestic maritime trades and is not supportive of U.S. participation in the international trades. However, the study also advises that possible reforms in national policy may lend more support to the U.S. maritime industry.Maritime Administrator Sean T. Connaughton said, It is clear that marine transportation is the most important mode of transportation for future growth of the U.S. economy; but current U.S. policy does not seem to reflect the importance of this modeóand for America to succeed, it must.

To help create a more robust marine transportation system, Administrator Connaughton continues to advise U.S. policymakers that government support of the freight transport system must anticipate and respond to potential shipping bottlenecks that cause delays and undermine regional and national economic growth.

The main task for policymakers, he says, is to ensure that the maritime system will have adequate capacity and reliability to transport ever increasing volumes of cargo and numbers of people in an efficient and environmentally sound manner.

The full report and its findings are available online at Maritime Administration web site, http://www.blogger.com/www.marad.dot.gov.

FROM HOLLAND AND KNIGHT

Bill introduced re ocean and coastal observations

Senator Snowe (R-ME) introduced the Coastal and Ocean Observation System Act of 2009 (S. 171) to develop and maintain an integrated system of coastal and ocean observations for the Nation's coasts, oceans, and Great Lakes, to improve warnings of tsunami, hurricanes, El Nino events, and other natural hazards, to enhance homeland security, to support maritime operations, to improve management of coastal and marine resources, and for other purposes. (1/8/09).

Have a really super weekend and ...STAY WARM!

RS

UPDATE -Dangerous Wind Chills Through Friday Morning

2009-01-16T00:01:00.002-05:00

Dangerous Wind Chills Through Friday Morning

NWS CHICAGO (KLOT)

A wind chill warning remains in effect for all of northern Illinois and northwest Indiana through Friday morning for very dangerous wind chills of 25 below to 40 below.

Some improvement is expected by Friday afternoon as air temperatures warm above zero. Please refer to the following for the latest information on the wind chill warning.

FORECAST AND WARNING INFORMATION -----------------------

Wind Chill Warning information
NWS Chicago Winter Weather Page

CURRENT CONDITIONS ---------------------------------------------------

Illinois Current Wind Chill Values, Temperatures, and Wind Speeds
Indiana Current Wind Chill Values, Temperatures, and Wind Speeds

REFERENCES ---------------------------------------------------------------

Winter Weather Definitions:

Wind Chill Warning - Extreme wind chills of -30oF or colder.A Wind Chill Warning is issued when the wind chill will be less than or equal to -30oF AND winds greater than or equal to 10 mph.

Wind Chill Advisory - Dangerous wind chills of -20oF to -30oF.A Wind Chill Advisory will be issued when the wind chill is less than or equal to -20oF AND the winds are greater than or equal to 10 mph.

Wind Chill Temperature Chart Click here for a Wind Chill Calculator

Additional References
COLD WEATHER ISSUES
COLD WEATHER SURVIVAL
Extreme Cold: A Prevention Guide to Promote Your Personal Health and Safety
Cold Weather Survival Guide - History.com
Key to battling cold: Dress warmly, experts say
Preparation key, say residents of chilliest cities

City Of Chicago
City of Chicago Warming and Cooling Centers
Where to Go for Safety in Extreme Heat or Cold

During extreme cold or hot weather, the City of Chicago offers these six warming and cooling centers. Call 311 to learn more or to schedule free transportation to the centers.

Need Transportation? CALL 3-1-1!

North Area Center
4740 North Sheridan Rd.
Chicago, IL 60640
312-744-2580

Trina Davila Center
4345-47 West Armitage Ave.
Chicago, IL 60639
312-744-2014

Garfield Center
10 S. Kedzie Ave.
Chicago, IL 60612
312-746-5400

King Center
4314 South Cottage Grove Ave.
Chicago, IL 60653
312-747-2300

Englewood Center
845 W. 69th St.
Chicago, IL 60621
312-747-0200

South Chicago Center
8759 S. Commercial Ave.
Chicago, IL 60617
312-747-0331

Keep posted to the NWS CHICAGO (KLOT) website for updates on this very dangerous weather condition.

RS

CHICAGO - Dangerous Wind Chills Through Friday Morning

2009-01-15T16:54:00.006-05:00

Dangerous Wind Chills Through Friday Morning

A wind chill warning remains in effect for all of northern Illinois and northwest Indiana through Friday morning for very dangerous wind chills of 25 below to 40 below.

Some improvement is expected by Friday afternoon as air temperatures warm above zero. Please refer to the following for the latest information on the wind chill warning.

FORECAST AND WARNING INFORMATION -----------------------

Wind Chill Warning information
NWS Chicago Winter Weather Page

CURRENT CONDITIONS ---------------------------------------------------

Illinois Current Wind Chill Values, Temperatures, and Wind Speeds
Indiana Current Wind Chill Values, Temperatures, and Wind Speeds

REFERENCES ---------------------------------------------------------------

Winter Weather Definitions:

Wind Chill Warning - Extreme wind chills of -30oF or colder.A Wind Chill Warning is issued when the wind chill will be less than or equal to -30oF AND winds greater than or equal to 10 mph.

Wind Chill Advisory - Dangerous wind chills of -20oF to -30oF.A Wind Chill Advisory will be issued when the wind chill is less than or equal to -20oF AND the winds are greater than or equal to 10 mph.

Wind Chill Temperature Chart Click here for a Wind Chill Calculator

Additional References
COLD WEATHER ISSUES
COLD WEATHER SURVIVAL
Extreme Cold: A Prevention Guide to Promote Your Personal Health and Safety
Cold Weather Survival Guide - History.com
Key to battling cold: Dress warmly, experts say
Preparation key, say residents of chilliest cities

City Of Chicago
City of Chicago Warming and Cooling Centers
Where to Go for Safety in Extreme Heat or Cold

During extreme cold or hot weather, the City of Chicago offers these six warming and cooling centers. Call 311 to learn more or to schedule free transportation to the centers.

Need Transportation? CALL 3-1-1!

North Area Center
4740 North Sheridan Rd.
Chicago, IL 60640
312-744-2580

Trina Davila Center
4345-47 West Armitage Ave.
Chicago, IL 60639
312-744-2014

Garfield Center
10 S. Kedzie Ave.
Chicago, IL 60612
312-746-5400

King Center
4314 South Cottage Grove Ave.
Chicago, IL 60653
312-747-2300

Englewood Center
845 W. 69th St.
Chicago, IL 60621
312-747-0200

South Chicago Center
8759 S. Commercial Ave.
Chicago, IL 60617
312-747-0331

Keep posted to the NWS CHICAGO (KLOT) website for updates on this very dangerous weather condition.

RS

Boaters say proposals cast them adrift

2009-01-15T00:00:00.005-05:00

Boaters say proposals cast them adrift

Proposed changes to the Nanaimo Port Authority’s moorage policy could force some liveaboards to weigh anchor and leave home port in their wake.

The proposed changes include a 14-day anchoring restriction within a 30-day period, a six-month extended stay permit, and requirements for holding tanks and logs for sewage discharge, as well as insurance.

People have until Feb. 2 to comment on the proposals.

Many liveaboards like Brunie Brunie, 66, and Norman Brook, 51, have called Nanaimo home for 10 or more years and say they won’t leave.

“I will fight to the death,” said Brunie, who has lived aboard her 1939 Lapstrake, MagicMade, for more than 20 years. “If they’re going to kick me off, they’re going to have to do it and blow me out of the water, and I’ll get all the TV cameras there when they do it.”

Brook, who has lived in the harbour for more than 12 years, said harbour residents could take the matter to court.

“We’ll have to fight it in court because this is precedent setting. If they do it here, there is nothing to stop it happening everywhere in Canada,” he said.

Andrew Pitcher, harbour master and manager of operations for the Port Authority, said the changes are to make people more responsible for their vessels. Pitcher said some changes are proposed because of boats running aground and the NPA left footing the bill.

Last year, the authority salvaged two boats at Newcastle Island, costing $40,000. “Most of the time when we [salvage a boat], the owner just walks away from the boat,” said Pitcher.

Brook and Brunie said the proposals are over-regulating. They say requiring insurance is a way for the port to get rid of liveaboards, because many can’t afford it.

The proposal would require $1 million third party liability and an additional $500,000 of pollution liability insurance if the vessel’s fuel capacity is more than 100 litres. The owner would have to have coverage for the entire stay in the harbour.

“We can’t comply with the insurance so it’s not only kicking our house out of the water, but our business has to leave too,” said Brook, who operates NAB Marine Electrical and Shipwrighting from his vessel.

Pitcher said if feedback indicates the insurance is too costly, the port will re- examine the proposals.

“We have to listen to public input,” he said.

Brook is a member of the Nanaimo Harbour Boater Community, an organization of 54 boaters, including 26 liveaboards and several boaters who moor their vessels in the harbour and live in the area.

Brook said if the organization hadn’t formed, the boaters would already have been forced out of the harbour.

But both Brunie and Brook support the requirement to have a holding tank to discharge sewage in approved facilities.

“The ocean is our yard. We respect it ... we are totally for that because we don’t want to be dumping in our yard,” said Brook.The proposed changes are online at www.npa.ca or at the NPA office at 104 Front Street.

Pitcher said there has been both positive and negative feedback so far.

After the Feb. 2 input deadline, the port authority will review comments and redraft the proposal.

WEATHER NOTE
Rescues, injuries as big seas hit coast

Lifesavers had a busy day on south-east Queensland beaches as king tides created sudden and dangerous rips.

Thirteen people were pulled from the surf at Surfers Paradise and another five rescues were necessary along other Gold Coast beaches.First aid was given to five surfers, two of whom were hospitalised with neck and shoulder injuries.On the Sunshine Coast, a shark sighting saw beaches at Maroochydore and Alexandra Headland closed for the remainder of the day.A report of two girls missing on an unpatrolled beach at Coolum sparked a two-and-a-half hour search which proved fruitless.

Surf lifesaving spokeswoman Kaitlyn Akers said there was no evidence on the beach of the girl's presence and the search was called off.Another pair of females had to be rescued after they were swept 200 metres out to sea when they entered the water into a rip.

"They didn't walk an extra 50 metres to the flagged patrolled area and walked straight into a rip,'' Ms Akers said.Another two surfers were taken to hospital as a precaution after sustaining head injuries in the wild surf.Ms Akers said conditions were improving on all but those beaches exposed to south-east winds.

She urged swimmers to stay between the flags."We set the flags where we do for a reason,'' Ms Akers said.

MARITIME NOTE
Coast Guard swimmer receives medal for rescues
The News Journal

The Coast Guard awarded it’s Air Medal today to one of its own for his role in two rescues off Delaware and Maryland.

Petty Officer 2nd Class Tye Conklin, a rescue swimmer from the Atlantic City air station, received the medal at the Hughes Technical Center in Pomona, N.J. Capt. Paul Ratte, commanding officer of the air station, made the presentation.Conklin rescued two crewman from the research boat Russell W. Peterson on May 12.

The Peterson had been 14 miles off Rehoboth Beach, its legs screwed into the ocean floor as the crew collected data on migratory bird patterns for Bluewater Wind LLC's proposed offshore wind farm, when a coastal storm slammed the mid-Atlantic area.

The captain of the Peterson, 61-year-old John Moyse, died. The boat later ran aground at Bethany Beach.Conklin also rescued one person from a sailboat that ran aground off Ocean City, Md., the Coast Guard reported in a news release.

RS

Yellowstone Lake Earthquake Swarm Summary as of 8 January 2009

2009-01-14T00:02:00.004-05:00

UPDATE: "CHICAGO NWS": Snow and Blowing Snow Today Followed by Dangerous Wind Chills

Local Storm Reports

Yellowstone Lake Earthquake Swarm Summary as of 8 January 2009

Seismic activity at Yellowstone Lake in Yellowstone National Park increased in late December 2008.

As of January 8, 2009, the seismic activity has markedly decreased

(Listen to a podcast with YVO's Scientist-in-Charge about the recent swarm).

It is possible that the swarm has ended, although a return of activity may occur as previous Yellowstone swarms of this size have lasted for tens of days to many weeks. Swarms are common at Yellowstone.

The last notable swarm occurred in 2004, please see our 2004 article, Yellowstone Earthquake Swarms for more background on earthquakes and swarms at Yellowstone.

Seismologists continue to review the earthquakes

About 900 earthquakes occurred between Dec. 26, 2008 and Jan. 8, 2009 in the Yellowstone Lake area. Five hundred of the earthquakes (including all greater than magnitude 2.0) have been reviewed by seismologists. There were 111 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 2.0 (> M2.0)and 18 earthquakes > M3.0. About 400 smaller earthquakes have yet to be reviewed. [A new Frequently Asked Question about earthquake analysis will be posted here soon]. The largest earthquake during the swarm was a magnitude 3.9 on Sunday, December 28, 2008. One of the analyses seismologists use to talk about earthquakes and swarms is the cumulative seismic moment, which is a measure of the earthquake energy. The cumulative moment (the energy from all the analyzed earthquakes in the swarm) for the Yellowstone Lake Swarm is equal to the energy of a single magnitude 4.5 earthquake (see Image 3).

Depths for shallow earthquake hypocenters (the point within the earth where an earthquake rupture starts) are difficult to determine accurately unless the seismic stations are spaced much more closely than those in the Yellowstone Seismic Network. The best located earthquakes have hypocenters (depths) of 3 to 10 km (1.8 to 6.0 miles). From Dec. 26 through Jan 2, the hypocenters appear to have migrated northwards, starting southeast of near Stevenson Island, with many of the latest events occurring near Fishing Bridge.

Image 2. The depth versus location of the Yellowstone Lake earthquake swarm from X to X' on the Yellowstone Lake map. Earthquakes are shown from Dec. 27, 2008 (blue) to Jan. 8, 2009 (red). The M 3.0 and greater earthquakes are shown as stars, the smaller earthquakes are shown as circles. Click on the image for a full-size version.

Swarms are normal at Yellowstone

The recent swarm is well above typical activity at Yellowstone. Nevertheless it is not unprecedented during the last 40 years of monitoring. Earthquake swarms within the Yellowstone caldera are typical, with magnitudes occasionally ranging above 4.0. The 1985 swarm on the northwest rim of the caldera lasted for three months, with earthquakes up to M4.9 and over 3000 total events recorded.

The magnitudes of earthquakes in this swarm range from zero to 3.9. Earthquakes with magnitudes less than 3.4 are generally not felt by people unless they are very shallow and you are standing very close to the epicenter (point on the earth's surface above the hypocenter). For perspective, earthquakes of magnitude 3.4 to 4.5 are often felt and there were multiple reports of felt earthquakes during this swarm. A magnitude 5 or greater is generally required to produce damage to buildings or other structures.

Image 3. Number of reviewed Yellowstone Lake earthquakes in six-hour and three-hour intervals from 12/27/08 to 01/06/09. The green line on the left figure gives the cumulative number of earthquakes; the steep slopes correspond to increase in earthquake number. The red line in the figure on the right gives the cumulative moment, or energy; its sharp increase in the first few days is due to a greater number of large earthquakes with their greater energy release. The total cumulative moment is equivalent in energy to about one M 4.5 earthquake. Click on the image for a full-size version.

New equipment allowed us to monitor the swarm

Improved volcano and seismic monitoring at Yellowstone gives us a greater ability to locate earthquakes, understand their source process and identify anomalous sources of seismic activity. New equipment including precise measurements of ground motion by GPS receivers and borehole strainmeters provided by the National Science Foundation's EarthScope and Continental Dynamics Program have been used extensively during the last week of intense earthquake activity. Ground motions accompanying the swarm, from the GPS instruments will take two or more weeks to fully process.

It is worth noting that in 2004 the Yellowstone caldera began a period of accelerated uplift measured by GPS instruments that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr), three times as fast as recorded in the recorded history but has now reduced to about a maximum rate of 4 cm/yr. Scientists have modeled this deformation as due to magmatic recharge of the Yellowstone magma chamber at a depth of ~10 km (6 miles). The area of the swarm is on the eastern side of the uplift area. For more information on the uplift, please see our article Recent ups and downs of the Yellowstone Caldera.

There are several causes for earthquakes

Earthquakes at Yellowstone are caused by a combination of geological factors including: 1) regional stress associated with normal faults (those where the valleys go down relative to the mountains) such as the nearby Teton and Hebgen Lake faults, 2) magmatic movements at depth (>7 kms or 4 miles), and 3) hydrothermal fluid activity caused as the groundwater system is heated to boiling by magmatic heat.At this time, no one has noted any anomalous changes in surface discharges (hot springs, gas output, etc.).

We continue to monitor Yellowstone Volcano

YVO staff from the USGS, University of Utah and Yellowstone National Park continue to carefully review all data streams that are recorded in real-time. At this time, there is no reason to believe that magma has risen to a shallow level within the crust or that a volcanic eruption is likely. The USGS Volcano Alert Level and Aviation Color Code for Yellowstone remain at Normal and Green.

Yellowstone National Park is evaluating infrastructure near the north end of Yellowstone Lake to assess if any damage has occurred to facilities. Winter visitor activities and staff operations have not been impacted and continue as normal.

The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a partnership of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Yellowstone National Park, and University of Utah to strengthen the long-term monitoring of volcanic and earthquake unrest in the Yellowstone National Park region.

Yellowstone is the site of the largest and most diverse collection of natural thermal features in the world and the first National Park. YVO is one of the five USGS Volcano Observatories that monitor volcanoes within the United States for science and public safety.

WEATHER NOTE

Ike post-mortem: Experts disassemble monster storm's causes
By SARAH MOORE
January, 9, 2009

Photos of coastal Texas before and after Hurricane Ike give a sort of "now you see it; now you don't effect, as if Ike were playing David Copperfield with beach houses.

Ten houses in Jamaica Beach. Ninety-one houses from Crystal Beach. All but five from Gilchrist.
As longtime meteorologist and former director of the National Hurricane Center Neil Frank clicked through a Power Point presentation, it brought back the initial feeling of disbelief and sadness at the profound alteration of previously idyllic beach communities.

At a conference Friday at University of St. Thomas in Houston, "Understanding Ike, does size matter," experts from various fields gathered to share information on Hurricane Ike, the baffling storm that was the third most destructive in American history, despite its Category 2 designation.

With Texas hit by named storms Dolly, Edouard and Ike last year, residents are left wondering what's going on.

But if it seems like hurricanes have become more frequent and more intense than they used to be, resist the temptation to jump to conclusions about global warming, some meteorologists say.

A number of factors contribute to that impression.

Because storms are rated based on wind speed, rather than barometric pressure, some systems reach named status al-though they lack the low pressure that would allow them to develop into a tropical cyclone, Frank said.

"On the basis of (barometric) pressure, not wind, (Ike) would have been called a Category 3," he noted.

In addition, satellites record more storms out at sea that in the past would have gone undetected.

"Historic records are not adequate to say man-made global warming is causing more storms," Frank said.

And some of it is just that too much time has passed.

In an active period between the 1930s and 1960s, 12 named storms hit Texas.
Frank also cited destructive storms in 1875 and 1893, as well as the storm that killed up to 10,000 in Galveston in 1900 and another major storm in 1915.

Also at the conference, Shell Oil spokesman Stuart Furgang described the destructive impact of various storms in re-cent years as well as how the company copes with the disruption. Furgang described the way personnel were evacuated in stages, leaving behind a last crew to "turn off the lights" only leaving at the very last minute - or staying to keep the operation going should the storm turn.

He described platforms that endured hours of 175 mph winds during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and 52-foot waves lashing platforms during Ivan in 2004.

Lt. John Moran of the U.S. Coast Guard showed video and told of photo-finish rescues of people stranded in pickup trucks nearly engulfed by Ike's storm surge as the helicopter grew low on fuel and waves threatened to sweep stranded families into the Gulf.

But there were lighter moments, too.

Conference attendees laughed as Manuel Gonzalez of CenterPoint Entergy dubbed Ike a "Category Tree" because of the large number of trees the storm blew into power lines.

MARITIME NOTE

Heroics of wireless operator remembered

A CENTURY after the first ever rescue at sea using a radio, enthusiasts from the Marconi Wireless Station in Cornwall are to celebrate the remarkable event.

The incredible operation was totally overshadowed by the Titanic disaster and the heroes involved have been largely forgotten. Radio operator Jack Binns saved nearly 2,000 lives after his ship RMS Republic started sinking after it was rammed by another in thick fog in the north Atlantic in 1909.

After the collision, the Marconi-trained operator leapt to his post and began tapping out "CQD" in Morse code – the distress signal used before SOS was adopted.

He worked tirelessly for 36 hours in the wireless room which had a hole in the wall made by the bow of the other vessel, the SS Florida.

His signals were picked up 30 miles away by operator Jack Irwin on Nantucket Island, off the coast of Massachusetts.

Mr Irwin immediately realised the importance of the distress call and replied to the message – sparking one of the greatest ever rescues at sea.Mr Binns was then handed a note from Captain Inman Sealby to be broadcast. It read: "Republic rammed by unknown steamship, 26 miles southwest of Nantucket. Badly in need of assistance."

Through Mr Irwin, whose range was much further, Mr Binns learned two ships were aware of the collision and in the general area. However, the operation was a long-drawn-out affair because the rescue ships found it hard to locate the stricken vessel due to the fog and a lack of lights on the White Star liner Republic.

As they awaited rescue, Cpt Sealby decided to transfer his passengers to the Florida, which was not sinking despite her crumpled bow.

She already had nearly 1,000 people on board, many of them refugees from the Messina earthquake in Italy.

After the high-risk operation, the sinking Republic was left with just 44 crew from her total of 300 – and more than 400 passengers had been transferred in dangerous conditions. Using location bombs and fog horns, the rescue ship Baltic finally found the Republic and the last part of the rescue began. Mr Binns stayed at his post until the last possible moment. He sent more than 200 messages, the last being: "Current going, wireless now closed."

Following naval tradition Cpt Sealby and the first mate stayed on board and went down with the Republic – both, however, were picked up.

During the incredible operation coordinated by wireless, no-one was lost. The only casualties were two deaths during the initial collision.

Englishman Mr Binns was hailed a hero on his return to New York, where the voyage had begun. Thousands lined the streets, shouting: "It's CQD Binns!" The incredible rescue and Mr Binns' heroism were totally overshadowed by the Titanic sinking three years later.

Ironically, Mr Binns later turned down the opportunity of being the Titanic's wireless operator and instead pursued a career in journalism. Wireless societies on both sides of the Atlantic will be on air on January 23 to celebrate hero Mr Binns and mark the centenary of the rescue.

David Barlow, a Marconi historian from the Radio Officers' Association who runs the Marconi Wireless Station at the Lizard, has researched the events surrounding the rescue. He said: "Mention 'distress' and 'wireless' and the first name on the lips is Titanic. But the events three years previously were of far greater significance and used the distress call CQD.

"It is a privilege to take part in an event to celebrate the saving of over 1,600 lives through the medium of wireless. Our special call sign GB100MSC represents the station that received the CQD sent by Jack Binns 100 years ago.

"Since that date, wireless operators and radio officers have remained on board stricken ships with their captains in both peace and war time, often at the cost of their lives." John Robinson Binns – known as Jack – was born in poverty in Lincolnshire and raised in Peterborough.

He attended the Marconi training school in 1904 and then joined his first ship as a wireless operator, aged 20.

Mr Barlow said: "In 1908 he joined RMS Republic and was the only wireless operator on board. At 5.40am on January 23, 1909, Binns became aware that the fog horn was sounding more frequently and felt the judder of the engines stopping.

"Then he heard a loud crash and the ship keeled over. He rushed to the wireless room and could see another ship through a hole in the wall.

"Using his Morse key he sent the message CQD CQD CQD MKD MKD MKD – MKD was the call-sign of the Republic.

"Operator Jack Irwin, on Nantucket Island, picked up the message and was soon in contact with the SS Baltic, which was only 64 miles away from Republic.

"However, she sailed over 200 miles trying to find the stricken vessel and travelled very slowly because her captain was worried about further collisions in the fog.

"The Baltic used location bombs in a bid to find the Republic, but when she was down to her last one the wireless was used to co-ordinate efforts.

"The bomb was heard and 15 minutes later the Baltic hove to."

Virginia Lovelace, Jack Binns' American granddaughter, remembers her grandfather well and called him "Binnsy".

She said: "My family are so grateful to the radio amateurs who will use the airwaves to mark this important centenary, in which more lives were saved than were lost on board the Titanic."

Jack Binns died in New York in 1959, aged 75. He spent the war in Canada as an instructor in aviation and wireless.

RS

Sat nav signals enlisted to measure ocean wind and waves

2009-01-13T00:08:00.005-05:00

Sat nav signals enlisted to measure ocean wind and waves

It's rarely a problem to tell how rough the sea is when you're afloat on it. But gauging conditions from a distance and across a wider area has always proved much harder.
Now scientists have pioneered a way to use signals from satellites in navigation systems like Global Positioning System (GPS) or Galileo to measure the intensity and direction of ocean wind and waves from space.

GPS signals are found constantly everywhere in the world, and if properly interpreted could dramatically improve our ability to monitor the oceans, providing a large amount of data on conditions at sea to marine scientists and meteorologists. This would help improve advance warning of storms and weather forecasts.

Specialised satellites can already provide data on wind speed and direction, but the global coverage is daily at best. Taking advantage of GPS signals could give scientists access to far more measurements closer to real-time.

The researchers hail from the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (NOCS), private company Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd and the University of Sannio in Italy.

Surrey Satellite Technology developed a small, lightweight instrument that can be installed on a satellite in low Earth orbit to measure the signals bouncing off the planet from the network of GPS satellites orbiting far above. The researchers' findings appear in Geophysical Research Letters.

'This is a great achievement as it demonstrates the capability of this low-cost technology to provide ocean roughness data', says Dr Christine Gommenginger, a specialist in exploiting satellite data for oceanography who supervised the project at NOCS, adding that this information is expected to complement rather than replace the data gained from dedicated Earth observation satellites.

The technique involves detecting signals from global navigation satellites after they are reflected from the ocean's surface. The idea, known as Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry, or GNSS-R, was first proposed in 1993 but its spaceborne implementation is only now becoming a reality.

Satellites of opportunity

'The GNSS-R instrument doesn't need to generate its own sounding signals; it can therefore be very small and has low power requirements, so it could piggy-back on any satellite,' adds Gommenginger.

'In the future we would like to be able to put this kind of Earth observation payload on commercial satellites, such as telecommunication satellites, taking advantage of these as platforms of opportunity in space in the same way as in oceanography we now gather data with instruments on ships of opportunity.'

One such opportunity could have been on the Iridium NEXT constellation of telecommunications satellites, which was seeking Earth Observation instruments to include in their payload, but the timescale proved too short to make this a reality.

Work is now underway to build the next generation of GNSS-R receivers with improved performance in a project funded by the Centre for Earth Observation Instrumentation led by SSTL. The team hope that such a GNSS-R receiver will be included in the payload of the follow-on to the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission - SMOSOps.

Researchers first proved the concept from space in 2005, but this early work gave information only on ocean roughness; the new work establishes for the first time that reflected navigation signals can also provide information about the direction of roughness.

Navigation satellites orbit around 20,000 kilometres above the ground. For this research their signals bounced off the sea surface and were collected by a receiver on Surrey Satellite Technology's UK-DMC satellite, which orbits at just 680 kilometres. The UK-DMC satellite was part of the SSTL Disaster Monitoring Constellation, which main function is global imaging primarily for disaster monitoring purposes.

Just one second's worth of GNSS-R data gives the scientists the information needed to build a picture of conditions at the sea surface. As well as directional wind and wave information, the reflected signals could also be mined for information about the mean sea level to perform ocean altimetry.

The researchers compared the satellite results with model predictions and against in situ wave data from the US National Data Buoy Center. Earlier research had collected reflected navigation satellite signals over the Mediterranean using a receiver on an aircraft, but the technique needed to be demonstrated from satellites which make it possible to achieve global coverage and does not depend on a time-limited aircraft mission to take measurements

WEATHER NOTE

Volcano Hazards Program Observatories and Centers

Monitoring and research at the five volcano observatories in conjunction with the Menlo Science Center in Menlo Park helps advance our understanding of active volcanism and allows the Volcano Hazards Program to provide warnings of impending eruptions in the United States. We monitor earthquake activity, ground deformation, gas chemistry, and other geophysical and hydrologic conditions before, during, and after eruptions.

Observations are used to detect activity leading to an eruption, provide real-time emergency information about future and ongoing eruptions, identify hazardous areas around active and potentially active volcanoes, and improve our understanding of how volcanoes erupt and change our environment. The Volcano Disaster Assistance Program also assists other nations prepare for and respond to volcano emergencies.

Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO): The Alaska Volcano Observatory monitors Alaskan volcanoes from its locations in Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska. It is supported by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys.

Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO): The USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory monitors the U.S. Cascade volcanoes and is located in Vancouver, Washington. The USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, which is headquartered at CVO, is supported by the USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance.

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO): The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory is located in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park on the Big Island of Hawai`i.

Long Valley Observatory (LVO) The USGS Long Valley Observatory manages the monitoring efforts for the Long Valley Caldera from the USGS Western Region Headquarters in Menlo Park, California.

Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory monitors and studies the active geologic processes and hazards of the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field and its caldera. The Observatory is supported by the U.S. Geological Survey, University of Utah, and the Yellowstone National Park. Yellowstone National Park contains the largest and most diverse collection of natural thermal features in the world.

Worldwide Volcanology Sites

For worldwide volcano information, please see the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program.

USGS Volcano Hazards Program Webcams

Below is a list of webcams of U.S. volcanoes. All webcams are operated by the USGS, unless otherwise noted. The images below are not the webcams but links to the webcams. The images were taken in the past by cameras and are meant to show the approximate area, not necessarily the view from the webcam.

Pu`u `O`o vent, Kilauea Volcano (HVO)

Halema`uma`u, Kilauea Volcano (HVO)

Summit caldera of Mauna Loa Volcano (HVO)

USDA Forest Service - Mount St. Helens Crater

Akutan, Alaska (AVO)

Augustine from Homer, Alaska (AVO)

Augustine Island, Alaska (AVO)

University of Alaska Geophysical Institute Augustine camp on the west side of the island, Alaska (AVO)

Near Infrared (NIR) Augustine, Alaska - best during low light (AVO)

Mount Cleveland, Alaska (AVO)

Fourpeaked Volcano, Alaska (AVO)

Katmai, Alaska (AVO)

Pavlof Volcano, Alaska (AVO)

Peulik, Alaska (AVO)

Mount Spurr, Alaska (AVO)

Mount Spurr, Alaska from station CKT (AVO)

Veniaminof Volcano, Alaska (AVO)

MARITIME NOTE

Amver Tanker Dispatched To Rescue French Yachtsman

Vendee Globe organizers lost all communications with French yachtsman Jean Le Cam after his sailboat capsized 200 miles off the coast of Cape Horn early Tuesday morning. An international effort, including a tanker dispatched by the Amver system, was underway to rescue the sailor.

Search and rescue authorities from Chile, France, and the United States Coast Guard Amver system are working together to coordinate the rescue.

Chilean authorities dispatched a rescue aircraft and, using data from the United States Coast Guard Amver program, requested the Bahamian flagged oil tanker Sonagol Kassenje to Cam's last known position.

Winds greater than 25 knots prevented the tanker crew from lowering their rescue boat. The Sonagol Kassenje, managed by Sonagol, remains on scene waiting for safer weather conditions. Cam remains trapped in the overturned hull of his sailboat but has been able to communicate with fellow racer Vincent Riou.

RS

New NOAA Great Lakes Laboratory Opens

2009-01-12T00:01:00.000-05:00

New NOAA Great Lakes Laboratory Opens

A larger facility to focus on Great Lakes issues opened today following a ribbon-cutting ceremony for the new NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) in Pittsfield Township, Mich.

“GLERL starts the new year with a new building,” said Richard W. Spinrad, NOAA assistant administrator for oceanic and atmospheric research. “This laboratory is a leader on many Great Lakes issues, such as invasive species, lake levels, and the use of biofuels for its research ships. In its new space, the laboratory will expand its efforts to serve the Great Lakes region through research and partnerships.”

Spinrad also announced Marie Colton as the acting director of the lab and acting lead of the NOAA Great Lakes regional team, succeeding Stephen B. Brandt who is leaving Michigan to be the director of Oregon Sea Grant in Corvallis, Ore.

Colton, who has been with NOAA since 2005 as technical director of the National Ocean Service, has also held positions at NASA and the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Research. She holds bachelors and masters degrees in physical oceanography from the Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne, Fla. In 1989, she received her doctorate in physical oceanography from the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif.

The new 40,225 square-feet facility has modern wet and dry laboratories, conference facilities, a library, marine instrumentation shop, and office space to accommodate about 120 federal and cooperative institute employees. NOAA will lease the building for 20 years.

Office and laboratory space will also be provided to partner organizations, including Michigan Sea Grant Extension, The Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystem Research, the International Association for Great Lakes Research, the NOAA National Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health, NOAA National Center for Research on Aquatic Invasive Species, and the Great Lakes Habitat Restoration Office.

GLERL was formed in 1974 and is one of NOAA’s seven research laboratories. The Ann Arbor area facility includes a field station in Muskegon on the shores of Lake Michigan.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. http://www.noaa.gov/On the Web http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/

WEATHER NOTE

Tornado Touched Down in Monroe County

Author: Grant Gilmore

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City says a tornado touched down in Monroe County early Wednesday.

The EF 0 tornado-- the weakest rating on the EF (Enhanced Fujita) scale-- touched down 5 miles southeast of Forsyth around 3 a.m. Wednesday.

The National Weather Service estimated the winds at up to 85 m.p.h.Embedded within a line a severe storms, the tornado touched down near 412 Reedy Creek Rd. and tracked east across US 41 near the Smarr water tower and then dissipated as it crossed over I-75, according to the NWS.

The path of the tornado was a maximum of 100 yards wide and 3 miles long, according to the NWS.Along its path, The National Weather Service's survey team found some trees snapped or uprooted, one home with moderate damage and three other structures with minor roof damage.

MARITIME NOTE

Safety briefing on LNG terminals

The first tankers carrying LNG are expected to dock at the jetty at South Hook within the next few months. Emergency services are to outline how they would tackle any big incidents at the new gas terminals being built at Milford Haven in Pembrokeshire.

Since it was first announced liquefied natural gas (LNG) is to be shipped to the port there have been safety fears.

Drop-in sessions are being held from Thursday but campaigners said plans and safety briefings were "incomplete and inadequate".

Tankers carrying LNG will start arriving in the next few months.

Two companies - South Hook LNG and Dragon LNG - are currently finishing off their plants at Wales's biggest port.

Opponents took legal action in a bid to stop them being built claiming a shipping accident, leak or major incident at one of the plants could put the lives of those living nearby at risk.

The extensive safety systems at the plants make the likelihood of any incidents there extremely small Paul Bates, assistant chief fire officer

Fire, police, council and other representatives will be explaining their emergency contingency plans and answering questions on safety arrangements.

The event is being held at Cedar Court in Milford Haven between 1400 and 1900 GMT on Thursday.

Pembrokeshire council's head of civil contingencies Richard Brown said: "This drop-in session is intended to be very informal, giving the public an opportunity to come along and find out a bit more about the emergency response plan arrangements.

"People can turn up anytime and talk directly with representatives from the emergency services and supporting agencies.

"I think they will be reassured that the risk of an incident is very low and that the safety standards are extremely high and, in the very unlikely event there is a problem, there are good multi-agency response plans in place to mitigate the impacts."

But Gordon Main, a spokesman for Safe Haven campaign group claimed that both South Hook and Pembrokeshire Council had still neglected to look at the consequences of a major LNG release at the jetty or in the waterway which meant any emergency plans or safety leaflets "are likely to be incomplete and inadequate."

The group said it had reported a possible breach of safety directives to the European Commission in what it called a "last ditch attempt" to see that safety was not compromised.

Campaigners believe the first tanker may arrive as early as next week but it is thought that the first shipment will not arrive for several weeks.

Frontline colleagues

More than 50 firefighters from the Pembrokeshire area have travelled to Texas in the USA for specialist LNG training.

They were involved in theoretical and practical exercises to understand the way in which LNG behaves and how to contain and suppress any leaks and tackle large scale fires. Assistant chief fire officer Paul Bates, who attended the training, said: "Our staff in Pembrokeshire continue to work hard alongside the plant operators to ensure that the safety systems installed are of the highest standard.

"This specialist training in LNG behaviour has been extremely beneficial to frontline colleagues and officers alike.

"Whilst the extensive safety systems at the plants make the likelihood of any incidents there extremely small, it is comforting to know that we have specially trained firefighters available if needed."

Separate safety and emergency planning exercises will be launched by the two companies in nearby communities before the arrival of the first LNG ship.

Major Southern California quake drill reveals significant gaps in preparations

2009-01-09T00:01:00.001-05:00

Major Southern California quake drill reveals significant gaps in preparations

The Nov. 13 'shakeout' showed officials that in the event of a 7.8-magnitude temblor they will need more emergency workers, better sources of water and come up with new ways of restoring electricity.

By Jia-Rui Chong December 27, 2008

The largest earthquake drill in U.S. history, held last month in Southern California, found some serious gaps in local earthquake planning, prompting utility companies, emergency managers and others to rethink their planning for a major temblor.The Great Southern California Shakeout was the first time so many agencies and earthquake officials teamed up to examine what would happen if a huge quake struck the region, in this case a 7.8 magnitude temblor. Many Shakeout participants said they have gone through earthquake drills before, but never with a scenario so detailed.

Based on the results of the Nov. 13 experiment, in which each agency estimated damage and emergency services requirements based on detailed quake scenarios developed by supercomputers, officials said they will need more emergency workers, better sources of water and come up with new ways of restoring electricity.Fire protectionFor local fire officials, one of the most worrisome estimates from the drill was the 1,600 fires expected to ignite with lamps overturning, electrical wires shorting and natural gas lines bursting open. Many fires would grow out of control as firefighters struggle to get fire engines across damaged roads and water stopped coming out of their hoses, experts found.

An estimated 200 million square feet of property would be damaged in the blazes. The fires would cause more than 900 deaths -- about half of the total for the earthquake."To hear it quantified like that, it more than got my attention," said Los Angeles County Fire Chief Michael Freeman. "This was really the worst-case scenario for us. Today, if this were to happen, we would need outside assistance."Unfortunately, Freeman said, they probably would not get help for quite some time because neighboring fire agencies would be fighting fires in their own districts and departments from Northern California would have to make their way around damaged highways.

Because they can't afford to multiply their staffs, several fire agencies are looking into training more members of the community to be first responders, learning such skills as basic first aid and turning off gas lines.Freeman said the county is also looking into ways to better draw water from other sources during a disaster, such as pools or storm drains that are collecting runoff from broken pipes.Water suppliesBut the drill also raised troubling questions about how much water would be available after a major quake. Of all utilities, water would take the longest time to restore, experts found. Some communities might have to wait six months for taps to flow again.

The Shakeout helped officials at East Valley Water District in San Bernardino County estimate that they would see about 1,000 leaks in their 450 miles of pipe because about 40% of their pipes are made from a material that is particularly brittle in earthquakes, said Gary Sturdivan, the district's safety and regulatory manager. All 78,000 of its customers would lose water for some period because all of the agency's reservoirs are on one side of the fault and all of its wells and distribution systems are on the other.As a result, the district plans to stock more replacement pipe parts in repair sheds near those areas and store more bottled water for their employees, employees' families that might stay at their facilities and their customers who need water, Sturdivan said.

The water agencies are also retooling their mutual-aid agreements so they can figure out how to prioritize different agencies' needs and distribute replacement parts or water from other states fairly, he said."I think our agency, like a lot of water agencies, was pretty prepared, but it was glaring that we have a long way to go," Sturdivan said. "It was a little overwhelming."Electrical suppliesThe 7.8 temblor modeled by the test would leave large swaths of Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Riverside counties without power, according to estimates by a working group that included utility companies representatives. Breaks in natural gas pipelines could add delays because many plants use gas to generate electricity.

It probably would take about 10 days to restore power to 90% of customers, the estimates found.But Jim Kelly, senior vice president of transmission and distribution for Southern California Edison, said even that is an optimistic forecast."The problem is harder than people initially think," he said. Although Edison already uses equipment designed to be safer in earthquakes, such as transformers with low centers of gravity, Kelly worried about other utilities and parts vendors that would probably be having problems at the same time.

"If we lose bridges or roadways, how are we going to get people or materials to the job site," Kelly asked. "We don't know if rail transit will be available if we don't have roadways."

When Kelly added these potential problems together, he estimated it would take two to four weeks to restore power to the vast majority of Edison's 12 million customers."The scenario's value to us was in identifying that we have to look broader than just our stuff," he said.

Lucile Jones, the U.S. Geological Survey seismologist who served as the chief scientist for the Shakeout, said she hopes the drill gave agencies concrete data that will help them better prepare."People don't need to be convinced an earthquake can happen," she said. "They need concrete statements so they know what to do about it."The effort to develop the scenario cost about $500,000, engaged some 300 experts and took two years to complete.

Geophysicists wanted to plot a plausible event, so they started the earthquake at a part of the San Andreas that has not moved for more than 300 years. They decided the energy stored in that part of the fault could cause a 200-mile rupture moving northwest from Bombay Beach, at the Salton Sea. Quakes of this size are possible, Jones explained, because they rocked San Francisco in 1906 and Fort Tejon in 1857.Seismologists used the supercomputers to calculate the shaking, generating data for 25,000 points of a grid laid out over Southern California.Geologists, engineers, utility managers and other experts used the data to estimate the damage, which included more than 10,000 landslides, more than 50 sewage spills and more than 100,000 addresses losing phone and Internet service for two or more days. Motorists would have to wait one to two weeks to use arterial roads in cities such as Los Angeles and seven months to use damaged highways.

Public health experts estimated some 1,800 people would die and 50,000 would be seriously injured. The economic costs of the disaster, including the business interruption, would total about $213 billion.

The scientists purposefully avoided a worst-case scenario but wanted to analyze an earthquake far more damaging than the 1994 Northridge earthquake, which had a magnitude of 6.7. "We wanted people to understand how bad it could be," Jones said. "Some people think, 'I've been through Northridge,' but getting through Northridge is not enough."

WEATHER NOTE

FEMA uses multimedia to document Ike response
By AMY MOORE
December, 23, 2008

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is allowing access to footage of recovery efforts during Hurricane Ike while staying on the cutting edge of multimedia technology, offering online "webisodes" of the Ike response and recovery missions in Texas.

In step with several other federal agencies, the emergency agency is producing video shorts for its online multimedia site at www.fema.gov/media/multimedia/ to bring the efforts of the agency and recovery information directly to the public.

Using social media tools such as YouTube.com, FEMA is able to capture the various recovery efforts in the areas surrounding the upper Texas Gulf Coast and making it available on some of the most active Internet sites.

The agency has produced 14 videos that highlight urban search and rescue, mitigation efforts, volunteerism, community relations, debris management, private sector outreaching, temporary housing and other human interest stories.

These "webisodes" demonstrate the behind-the-scenes, real-life dramas occurring in the response and recovery efforts after Hurricane Ike.

Other online multimedia resources can be found at:
www.youtube.com/fema - includes vignettes about Hurricane Ike recovery efforts and FEMA programs.

www.twitter.com/femainfocus - lets users get the latest FEMA information and participate in forums addressing issues.

www.fema.gov/radio/index.jsp - features mp3 files of recent radio news and Public Service Announcements.

www.photolibrary.fema.gov/photolibrary/index.jsp - includes FEMA's extensive collection of photos from current and previous disaster operation.

MARTIIME NOTE

Independent investigation into the lifeboat incident on board the
Hong Kong flag bulk carrier Ma Cho at Devonport, Tasmania
9 December 2002
Released

SUMMARY

On 8 December 2002, Ma Cho arrived in Devonport, Tasmania, to discharge a part cargo of fertiliser at number four berth on the western side of the river. On 9 December, the master made the decision to conduct an abandon ship drill before the vessel was due to depart for Geelong. The drill commenced at about 1540 and the starboard lifeboat was prepared for lowering to the water.

At approximately 1548 the mate reported that the crew inside the lifeboat were seated and had fastened their safety belts. Lowering of the boat then commenced with one of the crew operating the davit winch brake from the deck.When the boat had been lowered approximately two metres from the davit head the after on-load release hook suddenly opened, releasing the after fall. The lifeboat’s stern fell to leave the boat suspended vertically by the remaining forward fall with its stern swinging approximately five metres above the water. The boat crew were shaken by the incident but remained secured in their seats inside the now vertical lifeboat. The second mate had sustained a small cut over his left eye.

After the crew had disembarked, the lifeboat was lowered to the water to allow the onload release system to be inspected. It was found that the cable operating the after hook was not properly secured by the saddle clamp under the operating unit. Each time the actuating handle was operated, lost motion was induced by the cable sliding through the clamp and this meant that the after hook was not resetting fully. The cable clamp was temporary repaired and then the lifeboat was housed in its davit. MaCho was subsequently cleared to complete the voyage to Geelong.

The report conclusions include:

• The cable clamp securing the aft hook’s operating cable adjacent to the operating mechanism had been modified which resulted in lost motion within the cable.

• As a result of the lost motion in its operating cable, the after hook had not been fully reset when the previous lifeboat drill was conducted on 2 November 2002.• The design of the on-load release system was flawed with respect to the hook locking mechanism.

• The ship’s safety management system was deficient with respect to both the operating and maintenance instructions and to crew training on the on-load release system.

The report makes a general recommendation to ISM Code accreditation authorities regarding ship safety management systems as they relate to on-load release systems. The report also recommends that the lifeboat manufacturer and classification societies review the design of the on-load release system.

Have a really wonderful weekend!
RS

Technological advancements improving accuracy in predicting weather

2009-01-08T00:01:00.000-05:00

Technological advancements improving accuracy in predicting weather

Study weather reports online, and you might want to give up on meteorology.

"Deadly" storms fizzle, while weaker-looking fronts devastate. Temperatures often soar above predicted highs or plummet below predicted lows.
But for all the obvious errors, weather forecasting has gotten much better over the past couple of decades, and the improvements have saved many lives and dollars.

Further forecasting improvements will provide exponentially more benefits to individuals and businesses, although meteorologists doubt they'll ever be able to see more than a couple weeks out.

"Just having really accurate seven-day forecasts will change the world in countless ways," said Walt Zaleski, a warning coordination meteorologist from the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth.

"Airlines could move flight times to avoid storms. Retailers could schedule more workers for nice days. Utilities could prepare for surging power demands."

We're not there yet, of course, but we're much closer than we were 20 years ago.

The two-day forecast of today is as accurate as the one-day forecast was in 1988. The seven-day forecast now is as accurate as the five-day forecast was then.

Extreme-weather forecasts have improved even more over the same period.

People who once received on average five minutes' warning before a tornado – and no warning at all 74 percent of the time – now get 13 minutes' warning on average, and receive some warning 69 percent of the time.

Flash flood forecasts now come, on average, more than an hour before the floods themselves.

Radar improvements

Much of the improvement comes from a new generation of radar that went into service in the early 1990s. Unlike older radar technology, which basically bounced off storms, today's Doppler radar units can peer through fronts and measure things such as wind speed.

The improvement of radar and other weather-sensing technology complements the continual upgrades to computers. More sensors generate more numbers. Faster computers crunch those numbers. And the cycle keeps repeating.

"Not only will we become more accurate over longer periods, we hope to shrink our forecast areas and to forecast different conditions inside the same forecast area," said Mark Fox, a weather service meteorologist in Fort Worth.

"For example, rather than forecasting rain for the entire Dallas-Fort Worth area, we might be able to say it will rain in Dallas but not Fort Worth – or that the rain will hit Fort Worth at 3 and Dallas at 4.

"If you look far enough into the future, we might be able to say it will rain in West Plano but not in East Plano, but that's a long ways off."

Getting to that point will require far better equipment and some big discoveries.
Researchers have already developed the next generation of radar, which sees in all directions at once rather than spinning around.

Perhaps more important, dozens of companies are developing cheap sensors that can provide computers with real-time information in numerous locations.

Rather than getting data from a few dozen spots in any given area, meteorologists will eventually get data from thousands of spots.

Affecting businesses

Many companies already use weather forecasts to save money. Shippers route their trucks away from storms, for example. Farmers cover crops on frosty nights. Builders wait for sunny weeks to pour concrete.

More accurate forecasts will make all of that much easier.
A shipper who sends trucks 500 miles out of the way might eventually be able to cut the detour to 100 miles. Builders will see fewer surprise showers that keep their cement from drying properly.

Optimists see even more potential.

Weather affects nearly everything – crime rates, health, even how many people go to stores, restaurants and movies. Accurate forecasts could allow police departments, hospitals, restaurants and other organizations to optimize their staffing for any given day.

Sound far-fetched? British hospitals already work with forecasters to predict surgeries for various ailments affected by the weather. They use those predictions not just to set staffing levels but also to schedule nonemergency procedures on days that are likely to produce fewer emergencies.

"Another area we're excited about is getting more factors into our forecasts, things beyond temperature and precipitation," said Harold Brooks, a research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Severe Storms Lab in Boulder, Colo. "People now might decide that Friday looks like a good day to cut the lawn because we say that it's going to be sunny and cool, but they might change their minds if we could tell them to expect a high UV index and a lot of pollutants in the air.

"That's quite a few years away, but we'll get there."

WEATHER NOTE

NASA Ames Goes Green with Launch of New Web Site

MOFFETT FIELD, Calif. – NASA today launched a new "Greenspace" Web site to showcase several environmentally friendly projects that are underway at NASA's Ames Research Center to improve life here on Earth.

The Web site offers in-depth information about Ames' work on global prediction, monitoring and response of changing weather conditions to better understand why climate change is taking place, enhance our awareness and improve disaster response.

Ames also is working on alternative and clean energy to help us become energy independent and reduce our production of greenhouse gases.Ames is working on sustainable systems in the area of life support for NASA's new mission to return to the moon. The center is also supporting the green government initiative to develop greener, cleaner facilities."Greenspace is the first NASA Web site that houses all the green-related research and activities in one place," said Jeffrey Smith, deputy chief of Ames' entrepreneurial initiatives division. "The site makes it easy for anyone to read about Ames' cutting-edge climate change, renewable energy and sustainability research and how that makes Ames a greener place to work and a good Bay Area neighbor."

Ames is partnering with leaders in Silicon Valley and around the globe to put NASA's data and assets to work mitigating climate change through innovative partnering and intensive collaboration.

For more information about the green initiatives at Ames, visit:http://green.arc.nasa.gov

MARITIME NOTE

Rescue chopper has a record year
by Abi Thomas

Northland Electricity rescue helicopters flew two missions on average each day last year.
Their crews also fitted an extra month's flying time into the year, doing the equivalent of 13 months' work in the past 12.

So says Northland Emergency Services Trust chairman John Bain, after 2008 began with the "busiest month we've had in 20 years" last January.

Job numbers for the trust's two choppers were up nearly 10 per cent last year. Many were simple jobs like hospital transfers, but others involved difficult rescues in remote bush or coastal areas. The most recent high-profile job was Tuesday's winch rescue of four people off a boat off the Bay of Plenty coast.

Mr Bain said that over the past six years the workload of the trust helicopters had increased by 8 or 9 per cent annually, and 2009 would be no different. "But when we fly more, our costs go up," he said.

The trust paid for maintenance, fuel and even insurance in US dollars, and while the exchange rate had become more favourable in mid-2008, fluctuations made the helicopters' costs uncertain.

Fixed costs had gone up by 50 per cent last year.

Mr Bain was grateful to the Northland public for supporting the trust's annual appeal, which combined with donations from Top Energy and Northpower raised $300,000. Mr Bain was most proud of last year's rescues which involved use of the helicopter's winch. "There have been about 14 or 15 times when we've used the winch, and it means we've got that advantage."

Proud moments for the crews were "when you know you've given someone the best shot at staying alive".

Mr Bain urged people heading out to enjoy bush areas and coastlines to be prepared. The most efficient thing people could do in an emergency was trust the 111 number and to carry an emergency position-indicating radio beacon (epirb) and a light source to aid rescue, he said.

RS

NOAA models tsunami warning system

2009-01-07T00:01:00.002-05:00

NOAA models tsunami warning system

High-resolution computer models of Oregon’s coastline that simulate tsunamis and floods have been developed by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency announced Dec. 10.

Emergency managers will use the models to create evacuation and rescue plans for potential incidents, agency officials said, adding that the digital elevation models were developed by NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science.

The models cover the Oregon coastal area from Port Orford to the Columbia River.

The digital elevation models provide a framework that allows scientists to forecast the magnitude and extent of coastal flooding caused by a tsunami or storm surge with greater accuracy than older models, NOAA said. Since 2006, scientists have created 28 digital elevation models of U.S. coastal areas and an additional 45 digital elevation models are planned for the future.

The coastal digital elevation models are part of the U.S. Tsunami Forecast and Warning System and the new Oregon models will assist the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industry map tsunami evacuation zones, the agency said.

NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle incorporated the models into distant tsunami model scenarios, the agency said, adding that the scenarios simulate offshore earthquakes, the resulting tsunami that travels across the Pacific Ocean, and the potential floods when the tsunami reaches the coast.

With that information, NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers can issue more accurate flooding forecasts if an earthquake triggers an actual tsunami, agency officials said.

WEATHER NOTE

Insurers' natural disaster losses rise in 2008
Overall losses from Gustav and Ike were about twice the insured losses.

By Geir MoulsonASSOCIATED PRESS
Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Insurers' losses from natural disasters rose by about 50 percent in 2008, with Caribbean hurricanes Ike and Gustav powering the increase and climate change increasingly becoming a factor, a leading reinsurer said Monday.

Munich Re AG said in an annual review that insured losses came in at $45 billion this year, up from nearly $30 billion in 2007. It said total economic losses, including losses not covered by insurance, leapt to $200 billion from last year's $82 billion.

That increase was due in part to the devastating earthquake that hit China's Sichuan province in May. Munich Re said the quake caused overall losses of $85 billion — by far the year's biggest — but insured losses of only $300 million.

Munich Re said the year was marked by high losses from weather-related natural disasters, continuing a long-term trend.

"Climate change has already started and is very probably contributing to increasingly frequent weather extremes and ensuing natural catastrophes," board member Torsten Jeworrek said in a statement.

"These, in turn, generate greater and greater losses because the concentration of values in exposed areas, like regions on the coast, is also increasing further throughout the world." The company noted that six named storms — Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike — reached the U.S. coast this year after two years in which the American mainland was largely spared.

The year's most expensive event for insurers was Hurricane Ike, which hit the Caribbean and the southern United States in September, causing insured losses of $15 billion. In second place was Gustav, which hit shortly before and caused losses of $5 billion.

In both cases, the overall losses were about twice the insured losses.

Munich Re said an unusually severe snow- and ice-laden cold spell in China in January and February, which hit roads, railways and electricity supplies, cost insurers $1.6 billion. That's well short of the overall economic losses, which it estimated at $21.1 billion.

A winter storm that hit central Europe in early March cost insurers some $1.5 billion. Munich Re said an unusually severe U.S. tornado season, with a total of 1,700 tornadoes, also proved costly. A series of tornadoes that killed 12 people in late May generated insured losses of more than $1.3 billion.

The year's deadliest disaster was Cyclone Nargis, which devastated coastal areas in Myanmar in early May, killing nearly 85,000 people. Munich Re put overall economic losses at $4 billion but gave no figure for insured losses in the isolated country.

Though they rose sharply for the second consecutive year, this year's insured losses were still well short of the $99 billion Munich Re recorded in 2005, when losses were swollen by claims from Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans.

The company said that year also saw a record overall economic loss of some $232 billion, adjusted for inflation.

As a reinsurer, Munich Re offers backup policies to companies that write primary insurance policies.

Reinsurance helps spread risk so that the system can handle large losses from natural disasters.

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MARITIME NOTE

Can other vessels see you on radar?

It is important that skippers of radar-equipped vessels know the capability of their own radar to detect other vessels in order to avoid collisions. However, it is critical for skippers of all vessels to know if radar on another vessel can detect their own vessel. This is especially important as weather deteriorates and visibility decreases. The range at which a vessel can be detected by radar depends on many variables, such as the radar power, antenna, the vessel’s radar cross section (how strongly it reflects radar), and the environmental conditions (weather, waves, rain, fog, etc.) Nominal detection range in ideal conditions

Keeping a sharp eye on the radar for other vessels is key, but making sure your boat can be seen by the radars of other vessels is important too. (Beau Rogers) Marine radar encompasses small recreational systems transmitting at between 2 kW and 4 kW, to professional systems transmitting between 12 kW and 50 kW. Radar cross section (RCS), expressed in square meters (m2), measures how strongly a target reflects radar pulses. Radar detects larger RCS targets with less power, at longer range, and in more severe weather conditions.

Targets addressed in this article range from one square meter RCS (1 m2) for a person or small inflatable to about 10 m2 for a large recreational vessel, with 5 m2 being representative of pleasure boats. The accompanying table summarizes maximum detection ranges in clear weather for typical marine radars and targets. While detection may occur at greater ranges than shown in certain circumstances, most of the time environmental conditions and weather limit detection to shorter ranges. The table indicates that low-power radar on a pleasure vessel will usually not detect another pleasure craft at much more than one mile, whereas a commercial ship will not detect a pleasure boat at more than four to five miles, in good weather.

Large, ocean-going ships with powerful scanners might double this. If these detection ranges seem short, remember that recreational vessels are small, both physically and as reflectors of radar pulses. For example, the radar cross section of a Navy cruiser, which is not an especially large ship, is about 160,000 m2. It is huge compared with the typical 5 m2 pleasure boat.

Other things being equal, radar that detects a cruiser at 10 miles will not detect a pleasure sailboat at more than one mile. The table also shows the difference between the typical 48-mile recreational radar (4 kW) and the typical 16 or 24-mile radar (2 kW). The greater maximum range is useful only for detecting high cliffs when far out at sea, or storm clouds at altitude, as anything on the surface beyond 16 miles would be well below the radar horizon and undetectable. The main difference is that greater power usually comes with a better antenna and more sensitive electronics, resulting in a three-fold improvement in detection range (everything else being the same).

Flat seas decrease range Detecting a vessel in perfectly calm water is more difficult than detecting it in moderately rough seas. Although this is counter-intuitive, detection in a seaway is complicated because every pulse transmitted by the scanner goes to the target over two paths. One path is direct from the antenna to the target; the other path includes reflection from the water. The two pulses combine at the target with the result that power delivered to the target may be quite different from what would be the case in the absence of reflection from the water.

One effect of this multipath pulse cancellation is to reduce maximum detection range for targets on the surface of the water. Since most of the radar-reflecting elements of a small boat are in the hull, close to the water, maximum detection range for a pleasure vessel in smooth water is much shorter than given in the table; roughly a third. Multipath pulse cancellation decreases as the seas build and the ranges shown in the table become more accurate as seas reach about seven feet. The thing to remember is that flat-sea maximum detection ranges are much shorter than shown in the table. Fog attenuates radar

Rain, fog and sea state all affect your ability to see other vessels. In poor conditions, detection range can be significantly reduced. (Beau Rogers) Fog attenuates the radar signal and reduces detection range. How much the fog reduces detection range depends on the visibility distance, scanner power, and the extent of fog between scanner and target. Here we assume that fog extends over the entire distance between scanner and target vessel. When the maximum detection range in clear weather is short to begin with, for example, the target vessel is small, or the radar on the other vessel is a low-power recreational system, percentage reduction in detection range does not mean much in absolute terms.

For example, fog with six-meter visibility reduces detection range of two miles in clear weather to 1.5 miles, an absolute reduction of half a mile. On the other hand, when the maximum detection range in clear weather is long, for example, the target vessel’s RCS is large, or the radar on the other vessel is a high-power professional system, percentage reduction in detection range is far more significant. Fog with six-meter visibility reduces 10-mile detection range in clear weather to less than four miles, a six-mile reduction. Sea-clutter limits detection Waves produce target-masking clutter. Since waves cover a large area of the sea, they produce numerous blips covering a large area of the display.

These mask returns from useful targets like your vessel by filling up, or cluttering the display with blips due to waves. While the radar operator can adjust controls to minimize the visual cluttering effect, reliable target detection is possible only if the target produces a stronger return than the nearby waves. The operator simply decreases the gain until the clutter disappears, leaving blips representing desired targets. Of course, this works only if the target is stronger than the clutter.

That is, the target must stand out against the background clutter. Scanner power is irrelevant, since increasing power simply increases both clutter return and target return the same amount. Waves reflect radar pulses when the wave face is perpendicular to the radar beam. The distance from the scanner at which the waves are perpendicular to the radar beam is proportional to wave height and to the height of the scanner.

The strength of the reflection, i.e. the effective RCS of the sea surface, depends on the wave height and distance from the scanner. It peaks at a certain sea-clutter limit distance, which depends on the antenna height and sea state. The radar return from more distant waves becomes insignificantly small. At shorter distance, the radar return from waves remains roughly constant. Usually the wave clutter appears in the direction from which the waves approach, generally to windward. Five-foot waves produce a sea-clutter limit of about a half mile around a scanner 10 feet above the waterline. Doubling the wave height or doubling the antenna height each doubles the clutter limit. The same five-foot waves that produce a half-mile clutter limit around a pleasure powerboat might produce a two-mile clutter limit around a small ship with scanner 30 feet above the water, and out to six miles for a very large ship.

Skippers of radar-equipped pleasure boats used to seeing a small area of sea-clutter on their radar display must understand that a large ship experiences a much larger clutter limit due to the scanner height. Summarizing the effect of sea-clutter on detection range is difficult because of the dependence on antenna height and wave height. Generally, the larger radar systems are generally on larger ships and are higher, so the clutter ring is larger. Consequently, you will disappear into the clutter at greater range from a large ship than from a recreational vessel. You should remember that detection of your vessel outside the sea-clutter limit ring is determined by signal power (i.e. RCS, transmitter power, distance, and attenuation from fog and rain). Sea-clutter limits detection inside the clutter ring.

Waves can cause shadows Since most of the reflecting material in a pleasure boat is in the hull, waves larger than a vessel’s freeboard can shadow the vessel whenever it is in the trough between waves. The vessel can be detected only when it is on the crest of a wave; it will be masked and undetectable when in a trough. The resulting intermittent detection makes it difficult for a human radar operator to see the vessel’s radar blip and virtually impossible for automated systems like ARPA to detect and track it. Rain attenuates radar pulses Rain and other precipitation such as snow and sleet reduce detection range in two ways.

First, rain attenuates the radar pulses just as fog does. The difference being that the amount of rain is described as rainfall rate in millimeters per hour (mm/h), rather than as visibility range. Second, rain produces clutter return similar to wave clutter. When rain surrounds the target, clutter is invariably the dominant factor rather than attenuation. Since the clutter return is proportional to the amount of rain (and the rainfall rate) in the volume of space covered by the beam, and the beam fans out with range, there is always a rain-clutter-limited-detection-range that depends only on the rainfall rate and target RCS. Beyond this limit, you will not be detected. Closer than this limit, you may be detected if range and attenuation don’t prohibit it. The key concept is that detection is possible only at ranges shorter than the rain-clutter limited detection range, which depends only on the rate of rainfall.

The classic radar reflector for smaller yachts is the corner reflector mounted in the “catch rain” orientation in the rigging often from a spreader. (John Snyder) Consider a large recreational vessel target and a small professional 12 kW radar. In clear weather, the target may be detected at five and a half miles. If rain surrounds the target, detection range is clutter-limited to slightly less than three and a half miles by drizzle and to slightly more than one mile by light rain. Moderate or heavier rain limits detection to less than half a mile. Rain surrounding the vessel severely restricts detection. Even light rain will limit detection in most cases to little more than a mile. A high-power professional radar will do better, because the beam width is narrow and it is less affected by rain-clutter.

You should remember that detection of your vessel inside the rain-clutter limit ring is determined by signal power (i.e. RCS, transmitter power, distance, and attenuation from fog and rain). Rain-clutter limits detection outside the clutter ring. Pleasure vessels are not strong radar targets, multipath pulse cancellation limits detection range in calm sea conditions, shadowing limits detection when the waves are larger than the freeboard, and the radar horizon is limited because the target is on the surface. Fog and rain attenuate the signal and reduce the probability that a pleasure vessel is detected.

Clutter from waves and rain may make detection impossible regardless of the scanner power. As skipper of a pleasure vessel in good weather and calm seas, you may think in terms of being detected by low-power recreational radar at half a mile or so and by professional radar on a large ship at four miles or so. Detection range improves about three to one as the seas build to seven feet or if a good radar reflector is mounted on the vessel. Other than that, darkness, light drizzle, moderate fog, and waves up to three feet have little effect on detection range.

This reflector on the stern will provide some reflectivity, but won’t greatly increase radar visibility. (John Snyder) Detection in bad weather is problematic. Thick fog and drizzle extending over large areas may attenuate the radar signal greatly and reduce detection range severely. If the rain surrounds your vessel, clutter restricts detection to ranges shorter than the rain clutter limit range, which is about one mile in light rain, half a mile in moderate rain, and even shorter in heavier rain.

This is independent of the radar. Detection range may be better if your vessel is large, or if you have a good radar reflector, but the skipper of a recreational vessel should not count on being detected at more than half a mile in moderate rain. Waves generate a clutter limit. Outside the clutter limit, wave clutter has little effect on detection. Inside, detection is possible only if the target is larger than the wave clutter. Three-foot waves are not much of a problem. Five-foot waves require a moderately large radar reflector; eight-foot waves require about 10 m2; 10-foot waves probably preclude detection entirely. The sea-clutter limit is proportional to antenna height and sea state; the larger ships, i.e. higher antennas, experience the larger clutter rings, up to several miles. Detection range may be better if your vessel is large or if you have a good radar reflector, but the skipper of a recreational vessel should not count on being detected at less than a mile in eight-foot waves. It does not take much in the way of rain or waves to limit detection of a pleasure boat to a mile or less.

A vessel approaching at 20 knots would have no more than three minutes to detect you, identify you, track you and determine risk of collision, and decide on a course of action. A large vessel wouldn’t be able to avoid you under these constraints.

Your best option is to proceed with caution in bad weather.

RS

'Very bad' tornado season has most deaths since 1968

2009-01-06T00:00:00.002-05:00

'Very bad' tornado season has most deaths since 1968

Iowa's 2008 tornado season took 12 lives, injured at least 130 people and matched 2001 for the second-most twisters in a year at 105.

Pack those statistics into the four-month period of April through August and one word comes to mind: devastation. That was the same term many used to describe the EF5 storm that tore through Parkersburg and the EF3 tornado that struck the Little Sioux Boy Scout camp.

The Parkersburg twister accounted for eight fatalities when it spun a 43-mile path through Grundy, Butler and Black Hawk counties on May 25, and the storm that touched down near Little Sioux on June 11 killed four, including Boy Scout Aaron Eilerts, 14, of Eagle Grove.

"This is total devastation," said Sarah Harberts, 28, after Parkersburg was hit by the first EF5 tornado in Iowa since 1976. Harberts, who lives in Atlanta, was in Parkersburg visiting family on the day of the storm. Together, according to statistics from the National Weather Service, the pair of storms accounted for all 12 fatalities and more than $100 million in damages to homes, businesses and infrastructure.

"All of the buildings are gone; most of the tents are gone; most of the trees are destroyed," Lloyd Roitstein, president of the Boy Scouts' Mid-America Council, said days after a tornado ravaged the Boy Scout camp. "You've got 1,800 acres of property that are destroyed right now."

According to a year-end statement from state climatologist Harry Hillaker, 98 of 99 counties in Iowa, with the exception of Audubon County, reported tornadoes in June.

The deadly 2008 twister season in Iowa was "very bad" overall, National Weather Service meteorologist Jeff Johnson said, but especially when compared to past numbers.

According to state records, the dozen deaths in 2008 are the highest total since 1968. The National Weather Service began keeping official records in 1950.

"It was a very bad year, we had a lot of problems with tornadoes," Johnson said. Although the numbers were not favorable, advances in technology and science, he added, will help state weather experts work together with spotters from across the state in ensuring additional safety during tornado season.

"Probably the biggest advancement for us has been the Doppler radar, which isn't new technology," Johnson said, adding that robust spotter training has helped advance the ability to warn Iowans of possible storms. "It's really an integrated process - what we're doing here at the National Weather Service while working with spotters to mutually help each other, the end result has helped tornado safety overall."

WEATHER NOTE

Great Indian Ocean earthquake of 2004 set off tremors in San Andreas

In the last few years there has been a growing number of documented cases in which large earthquakes set off unfelt tremors in earthquake faults hundreds, sometimes even thousands, of miles away.

New research shows that the great Indian Ocean earthquake that struck off the Indonesian island of Sumatra on the day after Christmas in 2004 set off such tremors nearly 9,000 miles away in the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, Calif.

"We found that an earthquake that happened halfway around the world could trigger a seismic signal in the San Andreas fault. It is a low-stress event and a new kind of seismic phenomenon," said Abhijit Ghosh, a University of Washington doctoral student in Earth and space sciences.

"Previous research has shown that this phenomenon, called non-volcanic tremor, was produced in the San Andreas fault in 2002 by the Denali earthquake in Alaska, but seeing this new evidence of tremor triggered by an event as distant as the Sumatra earthquake is really exciting," he said.

Ghosh is to present the findings next week (Dec. 17) in a poster at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting in San Francisco.

The Indian Ocean earthquake on Dec. 26, 2004, was measured at magnitude 9.2 and generated tsunami waves that killed a quarter-million people. It was not known, however, that an earthquake of even that magnitude could set off non-volcanic tremor so far away.

The San Andreas fault in the Parkfield region is one of the most studied seismic areas in the world. It experiences an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 on an average of every 22 years, so a variety of instruments have been deployed to record the seismic activity.

In this case, the scientists examined data from instruments placed in holes bored in the ground as part of the High-Resolution Seismic Network operated by the University of California, Berkeley, as well as information gathered by the Northern California Seismic Network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Signals corresponding with non-volcanic tremor at precisely the time that seismic waves from the Indian Ocean earthquake were passing the Parkfield area were recorded on a number of instruments as far as 125 miles apart.

"It's fairly obvious. There's no question of this tremor being triggered by the seismic waves from Sumatra," Ghosh said.

Scientists have pondered whether non-volcanic tremor is related to actual slippage within an earthquake fault or is caused by the flow of fluids below the Earth's surface. Recent research supports the idea that tremor is caused by fault slippage.

"If the fault is slipping from tremor in one place, it means stress is building up elsewhere on the fault, and that could bring the other area a little closer to a big earthquake," Ghosh said.

Monitoring tremor could help to estimate how much stress has built up within a particular fault.

"If the fault is closer to failure, then even a small amount of added stress likely can produce tremor," he said. "If the fault is already at low stress, then even high-energy waves probably won't produce tremor."

The work adds to the understanding of non-volcanic tremor and what role it might play in releasing or shifting stress within an earthquake-producing fault.

"Our single-biggest finding is that very small stress can trigger tremor," Ghosh said. "Finding tremor can help to track evolution of stress in the fault over space and time, and therefore could have significant implications in seismic hazard analysis."

MARITIME NOTE

Busy night for air-sea rescues

A fisherman whose boat sank after hitting a buoy in the Solent was plucked to safety last night by a passing rescue helicopter.

The man, in his 20s, was taken to hospital with shock and hypothermia after being winched to safety from the Solent. He sent out a mayday at 2344 yesterday when his boat, Sea Raider, started sinking as he returned home to the Isle of Wight.

He was rescued by helicopter, diverted en route to a medical evacuation in Jersey.

A spokesman said: "He was pretty lucky that the helicopter was in the air at the time otherwise he would have been in the water a lot longer. It's not so much the water temperature, which is about 7C, but the air temperature is pretty cold. Shock is a bigger killer than the water."

Meanwhile, a Burmese sailor was seriously injured in a 40ft fall on board a cargo ship, 600 miles off the west coast of Ireland last night. He was airlifted to safety in an operation masterminded by RAF Kinross and involving two US Army long-range helicopters, a Hercules aircraft and an aircraft tanker from the US airbase at Lakenheath in Suffolk.

A RAF Nimrod provided air cover and communications. The crewman man suffered spinal and cranial injuries.

Greensburg, Kansas Tornado Study Complete

2009-01-05T00:31:00.004-05:00

Greensburg, Kansas Tornado Study Complete

In one of the most in-depth studies completed of the Greensburg, Kansas tornado outbreak, researchers from the University of Oklahoma have concluded that the mesocyclone that spawned that tornado may have been much stronger than originally believed.

The study authored by meteorologists Les Lemon and Mike Umscheid reveals the minute-by-minute evolution of the once-in-a-lifetime outbreak. As reported in the Kansas City Star (Greensburg study finds that storm contained 22 tornadoes), the storm may have contained more tornadoes than originally thought:

A large, long-lasting tornado 1.7 miles wide and measuring EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita scale virtually wiped Greensburg from the map shortly before 10 p.m. on May 4, 2007. Eleven people were killed and more than 50 others were injured.

It was one of 22 tornadoes that touched down in southern and central Kansas from the same thunderstorm complex on the night of May 4 and early morning of May 5.

That’s more tornadoes than initially thought, said Mike Umscheid, co-author of the study and the meteorologist who issued the “tornado emergency” warning that night for the Dodge City branch of the National Weather Service. A handful of small satellite tornadoes rotating around larger twisters initially went unnoticed.

In particular, a few of the tornadoes were very large and may have exceeded the previous record set by the Moore, OK tornado of May 3, 1999:

The Greensburg tornado registered at the top of the Fujita scale, with peak winds estimated at more than 200 miles an hour based on damage in downtown Greensburg.

The tornado that struck Moore, Okla., and other suburbs of Oklahoma City on May 3, 1999, was labeled perhaps the strongest tornado ever recorded.

But research shows the Greensburg tornado had EF3 or stronger damage in a track at least a mile wide — at least double the size of the Moore tornado.

As always, the tornado strength was measured by the damage path:

After destroying 95 percent of Greensburg, the tornado continued north, then curled left and looped back around, nearly striking the town a second time before lifting…

The Greensburg and Trousdale tornadoes were so intense the weather service’s radar in Dodge City detected vortex holes in them — something the radar had never done before, Umscheid said.

A vortex hole “is what you would see in the eye of a hurricane,” except it’s in a tornado, he said. They form when winds are rotating so rapidly they pull debris and even large raindrops from the storm’s center.

The Trousdale tornado’s vortex hole was about two miles in diameter — or not much smaller than the eye of Hurricane Charley, a Category 4 hurricane in 2004.

This study has also taught many meteorologists more about mesocyclones - the birthplace of tornadoes:

The outbreak featured something else researchers had never seen before: the mesocyclone — or “mother ship” cloud from which tornadoes develop — was rotating as rapidly as the tornadoes.

Typically, the mesocyclones rotate slowly. The Greensburg outbreak featured mesocyclones rotating so rapidly it was hard to tell them apart from the actual tornadoes on radar, the researchers said.

WEATHER NOTE

Hell trip from east timor

TIN Can Bay fisherman Kevin Lee knew there was a big wave out there somewhere as his fishing boat Faysea G pushed its way through atrocious weather and almost total darkness near East Timor.

Kevin knew he had found that big wave when a huge breaker, riding up on the back of another big swell, smashed in the wheelhouse windows, six or seven metres above the waterline on the boat's third level.

In a second, the vessel's upper deck was flooded, the electrics shorted out, fires started inside one wall and circuit breakers cut out the lights and instruments.

“It took out all the electrics. All we had left was the GPS and auto pilot,” Kevin said this week.

Mysteriously, it had the opposite effect on his mobile phone, which had been malfunctioning but which suddenly started working again in the chaos of the wheelhouse.

“The boys thought it was raining downstairs. Water was just pouring down from the top to the bottom deck.

“We lost the 24v and the 240v circuits but we had to get some things back on just to keep going.

“We had to bolt to the engine room and get the generator out.”

Meanwhile, back in Tin Can Bay, Kevin's brother Peter, who was tracking the vessel via satellite, knew something was wrong.

“He knew we were in trouble by the way we'd turned around to go with the sea while we boarded up the smashed windows,” Kevin said.

“We had to get the broken glass out, sealastic a board across the windows, then bolt those to another board inside and tighten it up. Then more sealastic,” he said.

After a season of prawning in Indonesia and a refit, the return trip had been uneventful, except for Kevin's failed attempts to hold down food after picking up a stomach bug in Djakarta.

“From Djakarta to Bundaberg 25 days later, I couldn't eat. I lost about nine or 10kg and ended up in hospital for a couple of weeks.”

Things turned rough as the vessel motored past Timor.

“The sea was flat all the way to East Timor but right from there to Australia we just got smashed.

“It was a hell trip,” he said.

“Hell” was made even worse for Kevin, who had to spend a lot of his time in the cramped and smelly confines of the engine room.

“I'm the skipper/engineer and I had work to do on the engine, even if I was throwing up,” he explained.

Not to mention getting tossed around by the ocean.

“I don't get seasick, not for years, but it was not pleasant,” he said.

Kevin was taking a break in the wheelhouse, extracting what sustenance he could from a hot cup of tea and enjoying being above decks (bad weather or not), when near-disaster came calling.

“I was thinking, gee that's a big wave. We're riding up it and I'm willing the boat to keep moving up. It's midnight, so we couldn't see much.

“Then I saw this second wave breaking on the back of it. Three seconds later it came through and - boom!

“Don't call it a 'freak wave'. I'm not a believer in freak waves. If you're in a bad sea, there's a bad wave coming, just be ready for it.

“I've been doing it all my life and we've got a good crew. No-one freaked out. I would have hated to be in it with people who didn't know what they were doing.

“Mates of mine who know the boat couldn't believe we were in a sea so big we'd blown the windows in - and they're seamen.

“But it won't happen again. We've got 11mm glass across the front now.

“If we hit something that blows that out, I don't want to be on board!”

Kevin was fueling up the Faysea G at his family's Lee Fishing Company headquarters at Snapper Creek, getting ready for the scallop season, not so far away this time, off Bundaberg.

He's hoping for good weather.

MARITIME NOTE

CG Investigates Ship, Bridge Allision

Coast Guard Sector Field Office Grand Haven, Mich., responded to a bridge allision on the St. Joseph River, which occurred shortly before 8 a.m. Dec. 30.

The ship Manistee, a U.S. flagged freighter 620 ft in length, allided with the CSX Swing Bridge. The Coast Guard immediately contacted the owners of the bridge, who found evidence of damage to the bridge's fendering system. Structural engineers have determined that the bridge can safely carry rail traffic. The ship, which was empty, has sustained only minor damage and is not taking on water. No pollution or injuries were reported.

The cause of the incident is under investigation. The Coast Guard is conducting interviews of the witnesses and the vessel's crew, and has begun the required drug and alcohol testing.

Among the Coast Guard's many missions is the responsibility for licensing mariners, inspecting commercial vessels and investigating maritime casualties. Investigations of casualties involving commercial vessels are conducted to learn why the accident occurred in order to reduce the risk of further incidents.

USCG – reminder re EPIRBs

The US Coast Guard issued a press release reminding the maritime community that, effective February 1, 2009, the COSPAS-SARSAT satellites will no longer monitor the 121.5/243 MHz signal transmitted by older Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRBs). Mariners are strongly encouraged to replace them with the newer 406 MHz EPIRBs, which offer greatly improved performance. (12/31/08).

Panama Canal – access to vessel information

The Panama Canal Authority issued an advisory reminding the maritime community of restrictions on access to vessel information maintained in the Enhanced Vessel Traffic Management System (EVTMS). Advisory 34-2008 (12/29/08).

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2009!

2008-12-31T00:01:00.004-05:00

SEE YOU ALL ON JANUARY 5, 2009!
RS