The Political Record - By Yasser O. Navarrete

The Last Week-Part I

2008-08-19T20:10:00.005-04:00

This is it.

The last week of, what Warren G. Harding used to call, "normalcy." Next week the Democrats convene in Denver, and it's much too early to see if Obama can withstand a Clinton assault for the nomination. Then the Republicans gather in the Twin Cities, and, if rumours as reported by Andrea Mitchell of NBC News are true, Republicans might appoint a registered Democrat as Vice President. More on that later. But the four-day prime time love-fests are fastly approaching, then the symbolic start of the General Election, Labor Day, less than two weeks away...then the debates, then the inevitable "October Surprise"...then the Big Day. And that's the 2008 Election.

So yeah, it's a good time to finally post something.

The Democrats, tonight.

***

Obama has promised that his supporters will be the first to hear who the running-mate will be. These supporters signed up to receive a text message from the campaign with the Grand Announcement. Big money is that it'll be Joe Biden, Senator from Delaware. Change and More of the Same. When it comes to how Washington works, it's a marriage of an Amateur with an Expert. But there's pretty much no where else Obama can look. Gone are the days when the decision of who'll be #2 rested on Electoral Math and who can deliver what. (See: Kennedy-Johnson, 1960.) Now, Conventional Wisdom holds that it's who can make-up for the nominee's short-comings. McCain has hit Obama on inexperience, on not being ready to lead, on being an amateur...Obama needs to balance it out. Tim Kaine of Virginia has only been in office for three years. Evan Bayh of Indiana is a safe-choice but someone that leaves the voters with a feeling of "so-what?"

Biden brings Foreign Policy experience, his son's about to leave to Iraq...but is that what matters? Iraq's getting better. Foreign Policy isn't going to be at the top of concerns for this year's General Election. Does Obama need to remind people that he lacks the Foreign Policy know-how? Appointing Biden will be much like Bush appointing Cheney in 2000. It's the whole, I'm-not-good-on-foreign-policy-so-I'll-give-it-off-to-someone-who-is. I don't think this is a smart move by the Obama campaign. Obama successfully already hit Hillary every time she said he's not ready, that he's too inexperienced; his response was that experience means nothing without intelligence. He's right. Experience, in the guise of Cheney-Rumsfeld-Clinton, got us into Iraq. Obama needs as Vice-President someone who follows the "Change" mold. That's the message of his campaign. He needs someone that no one has seen coming, but that when he announces who it'll be, it'll hit everyone as the obvious choice. The announcement could come as early as tomorrow, and I don't think it'll be Biden. But I've been wrong before. So stay tuned.

But while the decision of who'll be #2 is surely at the top of Obama's list right now, he can't help but ask "Will they do it?" Rumours have been circulating that Clinton is ready to mount a coup on the floor of the Democratic Convention in Denver. I'll tell you what, it'll make for great TV.

But will she do it? I don't think so. I mean, I wouldn't put anything past the Clintons, but this is somewhat unthinkable. However, Drudge has been fueling the flames by putting out reports about how half of the Democratic congressional delegation at the Convention will vote for Hillary during roll-call, and today, it even made the news that Hillary supporter, Sen. Diane Feinstein of California won't be attending the convention due to an injury--seemingly good news for Obama. This is the story-line before the Convention. Will Hillary do it? Will she launch a coup, a revolution on the Floor to prevent the Coronation of Barack Hussein Obama? I don't think so.

So it's a big week for Obama. The veep stakes are about to end with a final decision, and the Convention is about to begin. He'll return on Saturday to Springfield, Illinois where he first announced that he was running for President back in January (February?) of last year. He'll be joined this time by his vice presidential running-mate. And Rev. Wright, like that first time, will be at a secret, undisclosed location.

Things aren't looking that bad for Obama. He'll get the post-convention bounce that all the nominees get immediately after the convention ends--the question will be how big?

***

The Electoral College:

If the election were held today (taking in the numbers from state-by-state polls):

Obama: 264, McCain: 180; Too-Close-To-Call: 94

Strong Leaners: Obama: 214; McCain 120

Lean: Obama: 50; McCain: 58

Obama's well within striking distance of 270. When the pageantry of the veep decisions and the conventions end, strategy for both camps begin. It's all about getting to 270, everyone knows that. National polls don't matter. It's local. All politics is local. It's getting the toss-up states to go for you by even the leanest of margins. And Obama is much closer to 270 than McCain is.

And those toss-ups: Florida, Virgina, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, Nevada, and surprisingly, Alaska.

My predictions...and God knows I'm bad with Math:

Virginia: McCain 13 EV

Ohio: Obama 20 EV

Missouri: Obama 11 EV

Montana: McCain 3EV

North Dakota: McCain 3EV

Colorado: Obama 9EV

Nevada: McCain 5EV

Alaska: McCain 3EV

Florida:.....I think it's gonna be McCain 27 EV

So...

Obama's: 264 + my predictions: 304 Electoral Votes.

McCain's: 180 + my predictions: 234 Electoral Votes.

And that's why Obama is smiling all the time...

New Post

2008-08-17T23:09:00.001-04:00

...Coming Soon.

Wrong Again

2008-05-07T00:27:00.002-04:00

Well we've all been wrong this year. Surprises everywhere. No one ever expected how thrilling, fun, unexpected this primary campaign season has turned out to be.

I don't think the General Election can ever compare to the Primary Election Season of 2008.

And the Conventional Wisdom has been wrong from the beginning until the end.

And I'll admit it, I've been wrong many times this season. IT just goes to show that no one knows what's really going on. No matter how many metrics, or trends, or narratives are created, at the end, the American Voter will decide how the season unfolds.

So I guess I was wrong with propelling Obama to quit. He's on the verge. No one ever saw Indiana being so tight for Clinton...As of post-time, the difference is only 20,000 votes.

It's too close to call...

Why Obama Should Quit

2008-04-30T21:39:00.002-04:00

DALLAS--

In American political lore we're enamored by the possibility of the underdog defeating the establishment.

I think that's because America still sees itself as the ultimate underdog in the world. But we're the underdog that wins. We're noble and good, and we're faced with a world full of evil tyrants who cause pain, agony, despair. And we'll use our military for humanitarian needs and nation-building when necessary and we'll raise money and donate, and provide food and medicine, and still wave the flag of America and all that it represents. Don't you forget it, no matter what, we're still the United States of America—the last best chance the world has.

It takes a special kind of person to lead the United States of America. We want Saints not Sinners. We want Angels not Demons.

And that's why in some corners we wanted Barack Obama. He seemed so unlike anything we've ever had. He is so unlike anything we've ever had. The press fell in love with him. New voters all across America fell in love and packed stadiums nationwide, from the metropolitan coastal cities to cities in the heartland which still believed in a place called hope. He was it. He brought people from across the political spectrum and promised them that "Yes, we can." That yes, we can bring about change; that yes, there was a better way. And people believed him. They still do. I still do.

But then we saw Rev. Wright who came out of his self-imposed exile this weekend and brought his controversy back to the front of the political fore. Jeremiah Wright was a reminder of the unfounded fears that some Americans have about Barack Obama. They see him as something alien, they think he's a Muslim, there's a church that put on its sign "Obama-Osama: Are They Brothers?" Americans fear what they do not know. And it didn't help that Obama is seen as unpatriotic. Making a point causes him to lose political traction. Why won't he just wear the flag lapel? And why did Michelle Obama say that for the first time ever she's proud of her country and that America in 2008 is a mean country? These are things you do not say when your husband is running for President of the United States. Not wearing the flag lapel is something that you do not do if you're running for President of the United States.

But he seemed to overcome it all. In fact, in today's NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, Obama still leads Clinton nationwide 46-43% (one must take into account that there was an oversample of Black voters in this poll).But he hasn't won in a while. Yes, he still leads among delegates, among the popular vote and among most states won. But he lost in Pennsylvania and he lost badly. Indiana, neighboring his home state of Illinois, is now in play and Hillary seems to be a contender there. North Carolina down the road may follow South Carolina and give Obama a win. In a previous post I wrote that Hillary should quit not because she was losing but because she was going to gain traction and momentum and win. She has. There's going to be no stopping Hillary now, no matter what. It's too close. This reflects what I wrote in another previous post reflecting on why he can't put her away, and all those factors remain. The Clinton Political War Machine is a force to be reckoned with. Obama still seems too much of a lightweight, too much of an amateur to go against the Clintonistas.

And Obama isn't gaining in the demographics that he needs to win. His sub-constituency coalition is falling apart. He's not targeting the right voters. In South Carolina he was winning among White Men. In union-strong Pennsylvania he lost them. Lately, he's only winning among Blacks, and among the more educated Democratic primary voters. Hillary's winning everything else.

It seems counter-intuitive to suggest that the frontrunner quit. A frontrunner hasn't faced an internal challenge this strong and this heated for the nomination in a while. Hillary believes that this is rightfully hers. She believed that she worked too hard, waited so long and poured so much money and heart and tears (oh the tears!) into this that it's not fair that it's being taken away from her. She's going to stay in this. Dean can't make her get out no matter how much he's telling the super-delegates to have this wrapped up by mid-June. Hillary's expanding, there's no question about it, and she's out to swift-boat Obama before the Republicans get to him. Say what you want about Republicans but we're great at winning elections. Hillary and Bill always knew this and they've always tried to be Republicanesque in how they conduct a viable electoral strategy. Hillary went on O'Reilly tonight for God's sake…

Obama's inability to put her away casts doubt in his ability to win a general election campaign against John McCain this November. McCain gets independents, the Republicans are going to come out for him, and he may even get a substantial Democrat vote. And this is the reason why Obama should quit. Give it to Hillary. McCain-Clinton. Nothing will bring out Republicans in droves to vote for McCain than to have a Clinton on the ballot. They'll come out strong. And in every head-to-head matchup McCain beats Clinton. McCain ties Obama. McCain beats Clinton is the operative event though. It's in Obama's best interest to win the nomination clean and easily. He already fought for this one. Giving this to Hillary makes him noble, makes him a saint, makes him an angel, makes him a gentleman. He showed deference and the party is never going to forget that. He brought the Democratic Party together again. To say nothing of the possibility that McCain might not run for re-election because of his age in 2012. Obama's still a young man. He can wait. The Democratic Party, historically, never forgives its losers. It's not the era of Adlai Stevenson anymore where he kept running over-and-over again. The Democrats give you one chance and you're out. Give Hillary this one. Give it to her and she'll be out and retreat into the hallow chambers of the United States Senate and the Clinton name will become nothing more than an afterthought. Give Obama 4 years to rebuild, regroup, and re-inspire. He'll be stronger in 4 years, he'll be ready. He won't be making amateur mistakes and he'll be the leader that we all expect him to be, that we all know he can be.

So Sen. Obama give it to Sen. Clinton. Her new narrative is the one in which she states ad nauseum that she's the only one that can defeat Sen. McCain. Show America that she's wrong. Show America that ultimately, she's not a winner, but a loser. Show the Democrats how their inability to decide cost them yet another election. Be gracious. Be ready for your turn.

The Long Campaign Continues

2008-03-30T20:29:00.002-04:00

It's been nearly a month since I last wrote, and at the end, nothing has changed.

Yes, we've had the revelation that Sen. Obama's spiritual guide, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright apparently asks God to damn America.

And yes, we've had Sen. Clinton's Bosnia fairytale (as Times columnist Frank Rich dubs it)—you know the one where she swears she (and Sinbad and Sheryl Crow) was under sniper-fire while visiting troops in Bosnia during her tenure as first lady. While this had been debunked months ago, the former first lady and former presumptive Democratic nominee for the presidency continued to spew such fibs. It took the CBS Evening News to go back to the pool video and show that Sen. Clinton indeed had a safe landing. She arrived in Bosnia with Chelsea. That CBS Evening News clip was promulgated by Drudge linking to the YouTube video of it. It got more views than Wright's fiery sermons.

It fit the narrative: Clinton's a liar. And isn't that a narrative that fits so well with that family that we're all too familiar with? It's her "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." It harkens back to the narrative that the Bush campaign pinged on Vice-President Gore back in 2000: Al Gore swore he invented the internet.

And everyone's talking about Bosnia and the Clinton campaign is saying that she misspoke and that it's all due to sleep deprivation…this coming from the candidate who said that she's the most prepared to answer that red phone at, yes, 3 in the morning.

And everyone's forgotten about Wright and about the watershed speech that Obama delivered concerning race. That speech, one of the greatest political speeches in a generation, will be only remembered by simple sound bites: "I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas" and "I can no more disown him [Wright] than I can my white grandmother - a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe."

That's what happens when you schedule an important and long overdue speech on race in America, in the morning. Rookie mistake.

March wasn't a good month for either Democratic Candidate or the Democratic Party itself. It was full of gaffes and indecision.

***

But where do we go from here?

Clinton has said that she's not going to pull-out. Obviously. She's said that she was going to wait until the people have spoken. Yes, how noble of her. She was going to wait for Pennsylvania…and Puerto Rico to vote. June 3^rd is the last election. DNC Chairman Howard Dean wants this rapped up by July 1^st. But…Clinton spoke to the Washington Post today and said that she wasn't going to rest until Michigan and Florida are counted (where was she when the DNC disenfranchised millions of voters last fall?) and that if it had to come to it, well, that's what the Credentials Committee at the Convention is for. The Credentials Committee! She's going to see this through the very end and take the Democratic National Convention in Denver hostage. She will not give up. She will not surrender. Even if they count Florida and Michigan and even if she wins Pennsylvania, which she's likely to do, it doesn't add up. The delegate count just doesn't add up. It's not going to put her over the top. It's not going to change anything. She'll make the argument that she wins the big states and that she's won more recently—this even though today's revelation that because of the Texas "prima-caucus," Obama actually won there.

And that's the big problem. Bill Maher on Friday's show asked what the big deal was for Clinton to stay in and to allow the process to naturally unfold—to let the voters decide, to make every vote count. The process never unfolds naturally. No one likes a split convention. A couple of years ago I wrote an essay in which I compared the 1968 presidential election to every presidential we've had since. This paragraph is pertinent as to why the Democrats need a nominee by Convention time:

In the battle between perception and reality, it is also important to note the changes and evolutions in nominating conventions. Where 1952 was seen as the first televised convention, 1968 was the first dramatic one. Image-makers not only had to deal with a candidate's image, but also, with the image of the convention itself. Whereas in 1968 at Miami Beach, the Republicans presented a convention of unity and order, the convention at Chicago was anything but. Theodore White stated that "At Chicago, for the first time, the most delicate process of American politics was ruptured by violence, the selection of Presidents stained with blood." Americans were appalled at what was occurring on the streets in Chicago, and what was occurring inside the convention hall. Those watching Walter Cronkite's coverage on the CBS Television Network saw a young Dan Rather being punched on the floor of the Convention Hall and taken down by Convention security, "Cronkite then delivered one of those sound bites that get aired again and again for years to come: 'I think we've got a bunch of thugs in there, Dan'." Then and there, the Democrats' hope for a victory in 1968 ended. The Convention was in such a state of chaos that President Johnson—officially leader of the Democratic Party—did not attend the convention. In 1980, coupled with the important and salient background events which were occurring, there was discontent inside Madison Square Garden where the Democratic National Convention was held, after the sitting President, Jimmy Carter, was challenged by Sen. Edward Kennedy for the presidency, and at the end, we saw the famous image captured by television cameras which displayed the delicate waltz which took place by which Carter and Kennedy never shook hands on the convention stage. This event was seized by the pundits on television and re-played over-and-over again as a sign of disunity in the party. In 1992, it was the Republican's turn to seem extreme and not united. At the Astrodome in Houston, Texas, what was supposed to be a rousing night for Ronald Reagan's last speech at the Convention was split, with Reagan's speech being pushed to 11:00 p.m. and Pat Buchanan taking the 10:00 p.m. primetime hour. This push to a 10:00 p.m. slot made by the networks, especially NBC, cost Bush and his convention the image that they wanted to portray. NBC's executive producer, Bill Wheatley recalls that, "On two separate instances we saw them hold the convention waiting for us to come on the air…We were still in our opening when they introduced [Quayle]. There was this tremendous roar, and Tom [Brokaw] just picked it up." The one that really hurt Bush was Buchanan's speech which "after its opening applause lines for the nominee, went on to summon not only Buchanan's own following but the entire Republican Party to a 'religious war' against gays, inner-city toughs and the likes of Hillary Clinton." That same year at Madison Square Garden, the 1992 Democratic National Convention was perfectly orchestrated, went off without any serious gaffes, and was up-lifting and optimistic. The Republicans came back in 2000 and at Philadelphia, gave key-note speech slots to the likes of Colin Powell, John McCain, Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, Jr., and Condoleezza Rice. This created the image of a new, moderate Republican Party going along the theme of "Compassionate Conservatism" which Bush wanted to create. On the other hand, at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, there were undercurrents which pointed towards disunity in the party, when Bill Clinton was pushed to a Monday night speech, and then ignored for the rest of the convention. This went in line with the Gore Campaign wanting to distance themselves from Clinton for the General Election, and which many consider might have hurt Gore in his quest for the presidency.

Now I'm not saying that the Democratic Convention in Denver in 2008 will be just like the Democratic Convention in Chicago in 1968. I don't expect violence but I do expect political blood being spilt if Hillary Rodham Clinton takes this to the Credentials Committee and more so, if the Super-Delegates go contrary to whom the pledged Delegates chose. It would be a nomination stolen. If the Super-Delegates indeed overturn the voice of the people, if they overturn the people's choice, then what we will have will be the disenfranchisement anew of Democrats and a party uncontrollable. They'll be yelling bloody murder in the streets of Denver. They denied the first viable Black man the nomination for president of the United States. Obama's leading in the delegate count, most states won, and most votes cast. The Super-Delegates will have no choice but to re-affirm the pledged delegates, which then calls into question the reasoning for the Super-Delegates: if it's just to rubber-stamp and to be redundant…what's the point of their existence?

If Democrat's can't run their own convention, can't control their own people, what gives the American people the confidence that they can run a country?

And I echo David Brooks' belief (another Times columnist) who says that the reason that Hillary Clinton needs to get out is not because she's weak, but because she's strong. And yes, it's a little nonsequitor. Put aside the fact that in today's Gallup tracking poll Obama's lead over Clinton is now at 10-points, with her winning Pennsylvania and a handful of others, she'll continue to make the case that there's momentum for her now, that people want her in it, and that she'll be there for the people. There won't be any stopping her. She'll think that she's it, that she can turn this ship around, that she can salvage this ship who hit the iceberg long ago. It's delusional. She'll take this to the Convention and the whole world will watch what a split convention is. Can you just picture it? There might be walk-outs! Supporters of the losing candidate leaving the hall and the image replayed ad-nauseum on TV for everyone to see. Juxtapose that with McCain's convention. It'll be neat. It'll be orderly. It'll be just like the 2000 Republican love-fest in Philadelphia.

This was supposed to be the year of the Democratic Restoration. The economy is going south, the war has hit the 4,000^th American casualty, and the sitting Republican president remains unpopular. This was supposed to be the year of the Democratic Restoration.

It's amazing but the Democrats found a way to blow it again.

624787

2008-03-30T19:29:00.003-04:00

John McCain has released his first General Election campaign ad, and wow, it's something else.

He looks poised, ready, and presidential. And more than that, it introduces a number that we're all going to become too familiar with as the General Election campaign begins--once the Democrats of course settle their mess. That number: 624787.

He Can’t Put Her Away

2008-03-05T20:23:00.001-05:00

She's alive.

Hillary Rodham Clinton declares that momentum is now with her. She arrived in Washington this morning at 3am (it's always 3am) and three hours later she was preparing to undergo the "Full Ginsburg"—so-called when former Lewinsky attorney William Ginsburg showed up on all 5 Sunday-morning shows a decade ago. In the morning she declared that Obama's momentum had ended, that people were now taking a strong and hard look at both candidates and decided that she was the best choice. David Gregory on Today asked Sen. Obama, "Why are the voters reluctant to vote for you?"

It's turned.

Why can't he put her away? Why can't the knight slay the dragon? He's had his chance. He could've done it after Iowa, He could've done it after South Carolina, and he was expected to do it last night.

The media is setting expectations. They're dying to pounce on Clinton. They've been smelling blood for eight weeks now and are trying to rid themselves of Clinton. After SNL picked this up upon its return to the airwaves it became political narrative. Clinton used it at the MSNBC debate last week and another SNL opener this weekend re-affirmed that image. She didn't cry this time. But she did play the role of victim. She kept on pushing the story line that the media was too negative, that it was too bullying. On his campaign plane en route back home to Chicago, Obama acknowledged this saying that media portrayals of Hillary hurt him and help her. The base loves the victim of crass bullying. Obama said that she won vis-à-vis the "kitchen sink" strategy—throwing everything but the kitchen sink at him. And she did.

Clinton won last night on national security. Those who were late-deciders went over to Clinton's camp when it came time to vote. The only narrative that was really effective was the narrative of national security, yes, the 3am call. She won using a Republican tactic. It goes to show that security is, at the end, a factor in voting—even in the Democratic base. If Hillary won on national security, then in a face-to-face general, McCain will beat Hillary on national security.

General Election: There's no way that Hillary wins Texas; McCain will take that one. Ohio will be tricky. Hillary will win Ohio running against NAFTA and promising for economic change. McCain will face difficulty defending NAFTA and globalization in Ohio.

But going back to the basics: Why can't Obama take her out? Is it that Hillary really really really wants to win? Is it that from now on they'll throw everything at him to see what sticks? It's her tenacity. It's the fact that nevermind his many campaign faux pas, she is married to the best political strategist in the Democratic Party.

Obama's impotence in taking Clinton out casts questions as to his viability and whether or not he could mount a successful General Election campaign against Sen. McCain. These questions arise even though in General Election matchups, he performs better against McCain than Clinton does—McCain beats Clinton handily in both the electoral college map projection (I can't wait till we start talking about the map) and in national poll numbers. Obama gives McCain a run for his money.

But while the Democrats are fighting, McCain is having lunch with President Bush at the White House. It's a three-way race for November, and McCain now has the Republican National Committee and its powerful political apparatus as a branch office of John McCain 2008. His campaign now has an influx of at least $30 Million from the RNC while Clinton and Obama continue spending money competing against each other, drying up their respective donor bases and putting them at a general monetary disadvantage for the fall campaign.

I received this mass mailing email from John McCain this afternoon:

As we come to the end of our party's primary contest, we begin what will certainly be a spirited and hard-fought campaign against the Democratic nominee. In November, Americans will have a clear choice to make. And I intend to fight as hard as I can to make it very clear that I am the candidate with the experience and leadership to serve as our commander in chief from day one. (Emphasis his.)

From Day One. This is the same argument that Hillary makes against Obama. The more successful she is at making this argument, the more at a disadvantage Obama will be in a General matchup against McCain. Hillary and Obama seem to be oblivious to the fact that the grand prize in their eyes should be to wrestle the White House away from a Republican. They're more preoccupied on wrestling the White House away from one another.

This from Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe this afternoon, coming from out of all places, Facebook:

The task for the Clinton campaign yesterday was clear. In order to have a plausible path to the nomination, they needed to score huge delegate victories and cut into our lead. They failed. It's clear, though, that Senator Clinton wants to continue an increasingly desperate, increasingly negative -- and increasingly expensive -- campaign to tear us down.…The chatter among pundits may have gotten better for the Clinton campaign after last night, but by failing to cut into our lead, the math -- and their chances of winning -- got considerably worse. Today, we still have a lead of more than 150 delegates, and there are only 611 pledged delegates left to win in the upcoming contests. (Emphasis mine.)

The argument is that it's all about the math. Obama needs fewer delegates to clinch the nomination than she does. It's as simple as that. How do we get there though? Is it going to be a drawn-out struggle for supremacy? Will we go all the way to Puerto Rico in June until the Democrats have a nominee?

Howard Dean showed up on Hardball yesterday claiming that the DNC is ready to have every vote counted, every delegate allotted for. Today Michigan and Florida, the states sans delegates whose voices were muted by the DNC were given a second chance: You can run another primary or another caucus to select your delegates…but it's going to cost you. (In Florida, such a cost would be around $8 Million.)

The math is what's going to stop her. Or rather, I should choose my words more carefully: it's what conventional wisdom now states should stop her. This from the AP's Ron Fournier:

Obama began Tuesday with an 11-race winning streak and a lead in the delegate chase in The Associated Press count, 1,386-1,276. His margin was larger, 1,187-1,035 among pledged delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses.

Clinton has little chance of closing the gap because Democrats allocate most of their delegates proportionally; meaning the loser of a close contest earns nearly as many delegates as the winner. Even as she declared victory in Ohio, Clinton knew that Tuesday's results were unlikely to draw her much closer to Obama.

It doesn't get any better for Clinton after Tuesday. Just for kicks, pencil the New York senator in for landslide victories in Wyoming, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky plus narrow victories in Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and South Dakota scenarios that give her a hefty benefit of the doubt and then some. And what happens?

She still trails Obama.

She trails Obama.

The Democrats were supposed to win this one. An unpopular Republican President in the White House was the God-sent for the Democratic Restoration. They were supposed to win it. The American people say that they're tired of the war, that the country is headed in the wrong direction, that the economy is taking a slump, that they want something new in the White House…and yet, the Clinton-Obama feud has produced one clear winner: John McCain. People are voting on security. People recognize that they cannot leave Iraq. Clinton tells people that Obama's message of Hope is nothing more than empty words and emptier promises. Clinton's continuation in the race shows that Obama, now matter how hard he struggles can not defeat the establishment. The Politicos always win. Again, Americans in poll after poll want change. In poll after poll say that they are not happy with the way Congress is doing its job. Yet they'll vote for their incumbent representatives and retain the composition of Congress. Americans say that they want a Democratic President in the White House and not a Republican one. And yet, in poll after poll, John McCain beats both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The only difference is by what degree.

We are a schizophrenic people.

Junior Super Tuesday 1

2008-03-04T19:27:00.003-05:00

Talking Points:

Hillary will live to fight another day: She's likely to win her first primary in almost a month tonight in Ohio; Texas and Rhode Island are incredibly close
Obama, I predict will likely win Texas and Rhode Island, however by a slim margin
Obama: It's all about the delegates. They'll make the argument that no matter how close their popular margin is, Obama's delegates make any Clinton effort extremely ineffective
Texas: Clinton is winning among Hispanics, Women, and those who made up their minds late in the effort
NAFTA becoming a big issue with the Obama campaign getting hurt by having his economic advisors apparently talking to Canadian officials trying to calm them down on any possible NAFTA modifications: Those who are against NAFTA are going for Clinton (Can you still believe we're talking about this 14 years later)
McCain will clinch the nomination tonight; soon the McCain Campaign will take charge of the RNC and use their campaign apparatus
Huckabee will most likely drop out as the week progresses

In the words of Brit Hume: "This is kind of fun..."

It's 3am

2008-03-01T12:08:00.005-05:00

If you look at the videos released two days ago by the Clinton and Obama campaigns, then one would think that world crises only occur at 3am.

The Clinton Campaign started it. They're playing the national security card against Obama now. Make no mistake about it, this is a manifestation of the level of desperation within the Clinton High Command. With the base, this is where Clinton comes off as weak, not Obama. I'm not sure if the Clinton Campaign knows that yet. But it is her vote for authorizing military action in Iraq that doomed her candidacy.

Hillary didn't follow Bill's Laws of Politics:

Hillary's using fear. It's as simple as that. At this week's debate she just came out and said that Obama was going to bomb Pakistan. To which he obviously mentioned that no, that that's not what he in fact said. Hillary's using fear.

The first time I saw the Clinton ad I thought it was a McCain ad. I don't know if it's wise strategy. This week the Clinton campaign hit Obama with the now infamous Obama "Dressed" Photo.

Throwing everything that there is to throw at Obama only makes him more resilient for the General Election campaign. He'll become the Teflon man: Nothing sticks.

Tuesday brings Texas and Ohio to the fore. Texas is going to be a squeaker of an election. Polls that I trust have Obama up anywhere from 2-4 points up. He'll be allocated more delegates disregarding how slim is lead is since most of his strengths fall in areas where more delegates are allocated. Clinton's holding on to Ohio. A couple of week ago, Bill Clinton and James Carville said that if Hillary doesn't win either Texas or Ohio that it's all over. This week Bill came out saying that Hillary was going to win Ohio. They're extending her campaign. Unless Obama pulls off a massive upset, Hillary will see this through Pennsylvania, Vermont, etc., at least through April.

The Democratic Party needs a nominee. General Election campaigns, at this point, nowadays, should be in full swing. It's not Labor Day anymore. It's Valentine's Day. Valentine's Day should be the cutoff as to when the nominees have been chosen. This isn't 1968. Forty years ago this month, Johnson announced that he will not seek nor would he accept his party's nomination for president. Forty years ago this month, Bobby Kennedy announced that he was going to run for president. Fourteen months ago, Barack Obama announced that he was going to run for president. Running for president is now a marathon, not a sprint.

The Democratic Primary has gone on for so long now that McCain is actually taking a break this weekend at his home in Arizona. He'll be taking a lot more breaks if this continues to draw out. Who will tell Hillary it's over? Who will tell Hillary it's time to stop?

It's time to get to the maps. It's time to begin thinking General. It's time to think about Red and Blue states, and sub-constituency politics, and all that good stuff. It's time to begin the race.

And there's one thing that I'm certain about. In 2009 it will be 3am and a phone will ring in the White House. It's not going to be Hillary Clinton who picks it up.

Another will.i.am video

2008-03-01T12:02:00.002-05:00

This is another pro-Obama video released by will.i.am, once again featuring prominent celebrities.

What's striking about this one is the number of Latino celebrities in the video. Jessica Alba, George Lopez, Kate del Castillo, etc. Released before tuesday's prima-caucus in Texas, the obvious subtle message in the video is that Latinos would be better off with Obama:

The End of the Honeymoon

2008-02-21T11:25:00.003-05:00

I want to talk about John McCain.

I've wanted to talk about John McCain for awhile now. Too much press coverage on the Obama-Clinton epic struggle is leaving the Republican frontrunner with little to do, nothing to say, and becoming increasingly irrelevant as his campaign gets pushed back to the third, or fourth, package on the network newscasts.

It's bad timing. Horribly bad. Even last week when he swept through the Potomac Primaries, there he was, following another of Obama's uplifting speeches, with a cast right out of Century Village behind him, and talking about an ever-lasting war and smiling at the wrong times. Obama talks about hope. McCain talks about battle. He's a Debbie Downer.

And who can escape the media drama this Tuesday when Obama, tired of Hillary not admitting defeat, not conceding, and not congratulating him for his tenth-in-a-row victory, cut her off as she was making another primetime campaign stump speech and went on a 45-minute barnburner in Houston. All the networks cut away from Clinton mid-sentence and went to Obama as he still was giving his "thank yous." Hume on Fox had his microphone live and one can hear him screaming to his production crew to "Go" to Obama now. To borrow a phrase from the current Vice-President: the Clinton campaign is in its last throes. Veteran AP Political Writer, Ron Fournier, in the AP wire story which appeared on many newspapers around the country said that it was "panic-button time" in the Clinton Campaign. That explains the "War of Words" this week between both camps and whether or not Obama borrowed phrases from Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick. Then it doesn't help when Michelle Obama goes off saying that she's proud of her country for the first time. It hasn't been a good week for Obama.

But I want to talk about John McCain. Just when it seemed that he was going to go into semi-retirement, to catch his breath, maybe go on a short-vacation, the New York Times splashed a front-page story in today's edition, posting the story online last night at around 7:45pm. Apparently, The Times had been sitting on this story for a couple of months now, at least since December. The appearance is that The Times waited until McCain's frontrunner status was clearly established before they came out to produce this story. In it, The Times suggest that McCain's crusade on ethics and campaign-finance reform is not but a charade. That McCain has failed to practice what he has preached. In addition to that, the article insinuates that there might have been a romantic relationship between McCain and a lobbyist—so much so that during his 2000 presidential race, aides tried to keep her away from the Senator. The Washington Post's version of this led with the confrontation between the aides and the female lobbyist, Vicki Iseman.

Today McCain surrogates defended his actions on the network morning shows. Bob Bennett called it a "non-story" on Today. On Early, McCain Campaign Manager Rick Davis called it "the worst kind of tabloid journalism." At around 9:00am ET, McCain held a presser denouncing the story and any wrongdoing. Cindy McCain, who's had a more visible role in the campaign this week—what with her subtle attack on Michelle Obama's "pride"—said that "he would never do anything to not only disappoint our family, but disappoint the people of America."

The silver lining in this of course is that for the first time in a long while, McCain led the network morning newscasts, he'll probably lead tonight on the network evening newscasts and without a doubt, he'll be the top story on all the cable newsers. On Drudge, he's been the top headline for almost 16-hours now. Rush goes live on the East Coast in an hour, and he'll probably start off with this.

This gives McCain plenty of ammunition. One thing that the Conservative wing of the Republican Party absolutely abhors is The New York Times. Even though this paper previously endorsed John McCain for president, he can now come out and once again accuse The Times of displaying a liberal slant in its coverage and an incredible bias. The Times will be mentioned almost as much as John McCain today—this wouldn't happen if say, it was ABC News that broke this story. It'll be interesting to see if Rush joins the attack on The Times and somehow defend McCain today—the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

As of this post time, Huckabee hasn't come out to publicly mention anything; he'll wait to see how this plays out.

So what is this? I think it's a non-story. If this is the best that The Times has then I think that it either A) Isn't trying hard enough or B) Doesn't have much to begin with. Ethics? Are you kidding me? McCain hasn't even made ethics central to his run this time around. It's all national security all the time. This is an article that would've derailed his candidacy in 2000 which was D.O.A. anyway since the Republican establishment was hovering around Texas Gov. George W. Bush. This article is eight years too late. At the end of the day, McCain can come out winning if he's able to spin this as an unfair attack, another example of the media practicing the "politics of personal destruction." And once again—Ethics? Just imagine if Hillary pulls a miracle and she's the nominee, then the media will really have something to run with; with Billary the question will be, Where do we start?

She Wants To Debate

2008-02-14T21:18:00.002-05:00

Sen. Clinton now wants to debate. Before when she was the front-runner, she wanted to keep them to a minimum. Sen. Obama doesn't want to debate. He'll probably win this one and they'll cut back on the number of debates, even though there's one scheduled on MSNBC next week.

Sen. Clinton believes that she performs well in Debates, with Sen. Obama, under-performing due to the heightened expectations that he receives in a debate-setting. (When compared to his speeches, he can't put out a great line in every sentence he utters in the midst of wonky details which comprise such a debate.) Sen. Clinton also believes that the ABC News debate the weekend before New Hampshire helped put her over-the-top. Maybe more debates can re-capture that magic, and make her a contender once again.

Here are the ads that went up in Wisconsin concerning the debates. The first is Sen. Clinton's followed by Sen. Obama's rebuttal.

Clinton: The Enemies List

2008-02-13T19:25:00.002-05:00

In an AP story by Fournier, he lists the different segments of the Democratic Party who may have a bone to pick with the Clintons, and now see a way out vis-à-vis Barack Obama's ascendancy. These are people that won't think twice about abandoning the Clinton Ship as it sinks—and they'll let it sink without remorse:

Labor leaders still angry that Bill Clinton championed the North American Free Trade Agreement as part of his centrist agenda.
Social activists who lobbied unsuccessfully to get him to veto welfare reform legislation, a talking point for his 1996 re-election campaign.
Some served in Congress when the Clintons dismissed their advice on health care reform in 1993. Some called her a bully at the time.
DNC members who saw the party committee weakened under the Clintons and watched President Bush use the White House to build up the Republican National Committee.
Senators who had to defend Clinton for lying to the country about his affair with Monica Lewinsky.
Allies of former Vice President Al Gore who still believe the Lewinsky scandal cost him the presidency in 2000.
House members (or former House members) who still blame Clinton for Republicans seizing control of the House in 1994.
Donors who paid for the Clintons' campaigns and his presidential library.
Folks who owe the Clintons a favor but still feel betrayed or taken for granted. Could that be why Bill Richardson, a former U.N. secretary and energy secretary in the Clinton administration, refused to endorse her even after an angry call from the former president? "What," Bill Clinton reportedly asked Richardson, "isn't two Cabinet posts enough?"

Potomac Primary 2

2008-02-12T21:00:00.001-05:00

McCain wins Virginia amidst a heavy Evangelical turn-out propelling Huckabee competitiveness. Also, Obama beats Clinton in Virginia among Hispanics, 55-45.

Potomac Primary

2008-02-12T20:15:00.001-05:00

Obama Big in Virginia and DC, Maryland also trending Obama; McCain Faces Huckabee Strength

Substantial victories which may repeat weekend Obama sweep. Intriguing exit poll data suggesting Obama is increasing support.

Internals:
In Virginia

Ekes out Clinton on Economy, 60-40
Splits Whites (Clinton 51, Obama 48)
Takes women, 58-42. Women are key natural constituency for Clinton
Wins among college grads and non-college grads
Took 60% of votes of those who earn less than $50K a year
Took 60% of votes of those who live with at least 1 Union member in Household

DC big for Obama too. Maryland is expected to come in for Obama according to exit poll trends, yet results will have to wait until 9:30pm due to poll closing extension.

GOP: Virginia and D.C. too close to call, slim lead as of post time for McCain. While it is mathematically improbable for Huckabee to overcome McCain in delegate count, the conservative electorate in the Republican Party is giving McCain a run for his money and trying to prevent inevitability for McCain. That being said, McCain may still come out tonight a lot closer to clinching the nomination.

Results continue to come in…

Not So Super Anymore

2008-02-10T21:50:00.001-05:00

Apparently Hillary Clinton keeps a picture that she took with Barack Obama and his family inside her Senate office. She sees her rival whenever she goes to work. I'm sure that sometimes, when she sees his smiling gaze with his picture-perfect family, she can't help but think to herself, "How did you pull this off?"

She was it. Presidential campaigns are about the farce of a race and the reality of a coronation. She was the heir to the Democratic throne, the inevitable nominee; it was she who would be the agent which would bring about the Clinton restoration.

But something happened in December. The young, charismatic, inexperienced novice from Illinois, the son of a mother from Kansas and a father from Kenya, was causing a stir. Iowans—those semi-mythical citizens who've been delegated the responsibility of choosing an early leader, an early winner—opened up their hearts and listened to his message, and de-humanized him. Barack Obama is no longer a candidate but a movement.

He won in Iowa showing that a Black man could win in a white state. And that opened up the floodgates. The press, long messenger-boys for the Clintons, saw an opening and took it. They wrote her obituary and killed her candidacy. They said that Barack was unstoppable. They said that Barack was inevitable. They said that Hillary would be humiliated in New Hampshire…and then she cried.

And New Hampshire made her the second-coming of the "Comeback Kid." (The first "Comeback Kid" actually placed second in 1992.) And everyone again fell back in line. Obama was done.

But it didn't happen that way. She wins Nevada. He wins South Carolina. But Bill Clinton says that Jesse Jackson also won there. And now there's a split. She's not winning everything she's supposed to, he's winning things he's not. So they put her on a plane to accept an award that's made up ad hoc: The winner of the Florida Democratic Primary.

And Super Tuesday was supposed to be Super indeed. For the Republicans it was. John McCain defeated Mitt Romney but created the ascendancy of Mike Huckabee to prevent, however futile, the inevitability of a McCain nomination. For the Democrats it wasn't a Super night for either. It was a tie. Only 50,000 votes out of the approximately 15 million cast separated the two. And when it comes to the delegates, we have no winner. It's February and the race is too-close-to-call.

So on the morning after the night in which nothing happened, news broke that she had lent her campaign $5 million. Obama's campaign countered with the fact that they had raised almost as much in the 24-hours since Super Stalemate. And then the reasons for the media leak became clear. The Clinton ship wasn't sinking. It had not hit an iceberg, it was a tactical move created by the Clinton campaign to get her rank-and-file donor base to come out and salvage an effort that didn't need saving. At the end it was nothing more than a cheap political trick to fundraise millions of dollars, almost double the amount of the original loan, in a short time-span. She's the girl who cried wolf.

So the tie continues. Obama swept the primaries this weekend and is expected to perform strongly in the Potomac Primary this month. This will be Obama's month. But the delegate count remains razor-thin.

So thin in fact that both campaigns are using surrogates to make sure that the so-called "Super Delegates"—elected officials, party members—stay in line. Clinton is using Bill and Chelsea (prompting a reporter from MSNBC to state that the Clinton campaign has "pimped" her out; the reporter is now indefinitely suspended).

And the question will finally be will these Super Delegates go against the voice of the people, even though none exists? Democrats are tied. It is a house divided. Further division won't bode well once the nominee finally gets selected in Denver this summer after the acrimony witnessed this winter and spring.

Now both are trying to play this tired game of lowering expectations. Clinton's campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, a Latina was replaced with Maggie Williams, a Black woman. Clinton is saying that Obama is the frontrunner; Obama is saying that Clinton is. They do this so that when inevitably one of them wins, they'll be able to say that against the odds they did so, making their quest that much nobler, that much more extraordinary.

Obama is becoming the establishment. I guess it's about time he did. He now has a real, honest-to-God chance in taking this.

All elections are about change. It's as simple as that. Clinton could never overcome that she is more-of-the-same. The tactics that she's used are straight out of negative political playbooks. She tried to defeat her nemesis but she hasn't been able to. And this doesn't happen to a front-runner. Now Obama's leading in delegates and leading in money. But she'll stay in until the end. Peggy Noonan asked if she could lose with grace? I don't see Howard Dean being strong enough to push her to the curb. I see her fighting this until the very end, until the very last casualty, until the very last blood has been spilt. She might really lose this, and the sudden defeat of a Clinton was something that no one could have predicted.

A message of hope and "yes we can" beat out a message of thirty-five years of experience. As Obama likes to bring up—the wrong kind of experience. And it's ironic that Obama is winning this running as Clinton in '92.

The super-delegates have to give this to Obama. It's seemingly the end of the Clinton effort. He's even making the sage argument of electability now. The Republican playbook, the worst-kept secret in Washington, has been filled page-by-page with ways to defeat Hillary. Now it has to be re-written with Obama.

Tuesday showed us that there was no evident winner, but there is a loser, and that loser is Hillary Clinton. She's losing her stranglehold on what was once thought of as a fait accompli. She's losing her grip on something that she thought was rightfully hers.

If It's Saturday...

2008-02-09T22:07:00.000-05:00

Obama wins: Lousiana, Nebraska and Washington.

A sweep for Barack Obama, making this the lede in tomorrow morning's Sunday papers.

For the Republicans:

Huckabee wins the GOP caucus in Kansas, GOP primaries in Louisiana and Washington too close to call, with Huckabee leading in Louisiana and McCain in Washington...

Developing...

Update (10:36am ET): Mike Huckabee beats John McCain in Louisiana in a squeaker, 43-42% or by a margin of 2,056 votes; John McCain prevents a Huckabee sweep by winning in Washington, where Ron Paul had a strong showing.

Weekend Videos

2008-02-09T15:44:00.000-05:00

The following videos are from Slate Magazine, one of my favorite websites:

The first, is entitled "Obama Promises Change. Who hasn't?"

Goes to show that the only thing constant is change itself...

This second video, entitled, "Hillary's Inner Tracy Flick," compares the 2008 Democratic race to the 1999 Reese Witherspoon-Matthew Broderick "Election" movie:

Romney's Out

2008-02-07T12:36:00.000-05:00

MITT ROMNEY DROPS OUT OF RACE...

Mitt Romney has seen the numbers, he's not going to pull any delegates to overcome McCain, and he's not willing to push more money towards his campaign.

Sources: Romney "lives to fight for another day..." He's positioning himself for another stab at it in four or eight years.

Romney to announce at CPAC publicly.

Huckabee remains where he'll do strong in other southern primaries, but McCain is now positioned to gather delegates.

Mike Huckabee might follow suit, and suspend his campaign soon, so that the McCain effort can begin forming an offensive against Obama or Clinton.

John McCain will be crowned in St. Paul come August.

Update (1:04ET): Romney at CPAC: "Soon, the face of liberalism in America will have a new name. Whether it is Barack or Hillary... I disagree with Senator McCain on a number of issues, as you know. But I agree with him on doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and executing Osama bin Laden, and on eliminating Al Qaeda and terror. If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror... This is not an easy decision for me. I hate to lose... If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America, I feel I must now stand aside, for our party and for our country."

The Post Game Show: Super Tuesday

2008-02-06T23:09:00.001-05:00

It's somewhat difficult to thoroughly describe all the moving parts right now. Who's winning? Who's losing? Who's about done? What actually happened last night?

***

The Republicans:

The Republican race is beginning to take on a narrative of inevitability for John McCain. NBC News projects that Sen. McCain has gathered 720 delegates, needing just 471 more delegates before he gets crowned in St. Paul this summer. Govs. Romney and Huckabee trail by a wide margin (256-194). John McCain, who's guerilla campaign in 2000 proved futile against the Bush machine now finds himself, eight years later, as the establishment candidate, the bona fide front-runner, the nominee presumptive of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States. He is it. No matter the attacks that he's received from right-wing talk radio, especially Rush Limbaugh, the party will coalesce around the McCain candidacy on the assumption that he is indeed the most electable. McCain is sending out olive branches to the different sects which comprise the Republican Party.

Tomorrow, he'll make an appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington D.C., where he has never been a popular figure and has failed to attend the conference in recent years. There, McCain will take on the "Son of Reagan" attributes that he has cloaked around himself since his candidacy began. He'll make the argument that once again, he is a Conservative candidate in the race. Among Conservatives actually, exit polls suggest that McCain is not faring that badly. Among Evangelicals it becomes a different story. Evangelicals are the most loyal voting bloc in the Republican Party and what has prevented Romney from picking up any votes has been Huckabee's candidacy. It is telling that last night, McCain won in states that a Republican will find difficult, if not impossible, to win come November. He picked up New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, and California; while Huckabee did well in the Solid South, winning in Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, and West Virginia. Romney prevented humiliation by winning in Massachusetts where McCain had placed a last stand in an effort to strike a death blow to the Romney effort. Romney also did well in traditional Republican states such as Montana, North Dakota, and Utah (where he has a natural constituency).

John McCain is going to have to convince voters that he is one of them. At CPAC, he's going to roll out with a video showing him with Ronald Reagan, his campaign has deployed surrogates (see Dole, Bob) to trump up his Conservative credentials.

Huckabee had a great night last night. It's been the conventional wisdom that Huckabee would be a strong candidate for the Vice-Presidency—a possibility which grew with Huckabee's electoral victories on Super Tuesday. He showed that he's not a one-hit wonder, and that there are many Republican voters that are indeed attracted to his candidacy. Today Huckabee did the morning news shows making the point that while the mainstream media had written him off and made the Republican narrative a two-man race, that it was, and until now, remains a three-man race. Huckabee says that he's not done yet, but he'll pick up and end this in another month. He'll stay in just to show the establishment, and McCain himself, that he is indeed potent and viable.

Romney was supposed to be in meetings today with his staff engaging in "frank" discussions as to where his campaign goes from here. Romney sees the writing on the wall, and he's restrained himself in further attacking McCain. Romney will pull out before the Convention, since he does not want to be a spoiler of inevitability, and he's thinking about the future, four years down the line, eight years down the line, when the party becomes grateful for how he handled himself during this campaign and may indeed favor him for the nomination in the future.

This was always supposed to happen. The Republican Party is the party of order, organization, and hierarchy. The Republicans always crown an heir-apparent and create a standard-bearer. There's no chaos in the Republican Party. There's whose-turn-is-it-now. Over the last election cycles, it's been this way. This is the party that nominates George W. Bush. This is the party that nominates Bob Dole.

In fact, the last two times that there's been chaos at Republican Party conventions were because of Ronald Reagan. The first-time in 1976, the closest we've come to a floor-fight in recent years, occurred because Reagan was viable enough to mount an effort against the sitting president, Gerald Ford, for the nomination. At the end Ford won the nomination but lost the General Election against Jimmy Carter. In 1980, there were some moments of late-night drama when rumors hit the floor that Reagan was in talks with Ford to offer Ford the Vice-Presidency. The negotiations broke apart when no one could figure out exactly how Ford's vice presidency would practically work since he was a former president of the United States. Many spoke of co-presidencies (see Clinton, William J. and Hillary), and at the end, Reagan gave the vice presidency to George H.W. Bush who would create the linear path to the presidency for George W. Bush.

***

The Democrats:

I guess the biggest surprise from last night was Clinton's margin of victory in California. Once again, the "Shock Poll" that was splashed on Drudge all day was wrong. It was New Hampshire all over again. At the end of the day, Clinton won by 10 (52-42), with help from strong Hispanic support, a majority of women voters, and lower-than-expected African-American turnout. Obama won thirteen states, Clinton won 9. She won the big Democratic states, and Obama did well in traditional "Red" states.

The thing about the Democrats…they're tied.

Depending on which delegate projections you believe (I'm sticking with NBC's), it's thisclose. Some projections have Clinton +79. Others are not attempting to project whether the Super Delegates who pledged support will stick by the candidate in the future. Be it as it may, when it comes to delegates—and a Democrat needs 2,025 to win—it's a tie. Super Tuesday did not decide anything. It's made the race tighter, and it will make it longer. Next week the so-called "Potomac Primary" will take place, and many believe that Clinton and Obama will once again split the votes and the delegates there.

The Democrats have two candidates that resonate with their base this time. Nationwide, close to 14 million Democrats voted last night. Clinton won the popular vote by around 53,000 votes—or less than ½ of 1%. It's that close.

Howard Dean has already stated that if by May there's no clear front-runner, no clear winner—which there isn't at this point—that he'll try to step in and broker a deal in order to avoid a floor-fight at the Convention in Denver.

Chris Matthews tried to get his panel to declare who's the front-runner in the Democratic race. No one gave a clear answer. The front-runner is Barack Obama. What he pulled off last night was an astonishing feat. In states where just a couple of months ago he was 20 points, 30 points behind, he was able to narrow the margin, and indeed won some of them.

His biggest win was to ensure that Hillary Clinton is not the inevitable candidate anymore. New Hampshire made Hillary the second incarnation of the "Comeback Kid" but will the future prognostications hold? Conventional Wisdom holds that if Super Tuesday would've been next week and not last night, Obama might have indeed won big in California and in other states where he was making important gains. The momentum's with Obama. He is the knight, and his mission, his journey, as Maureen Dowd wrote today, is "to slay the dragon." And the Dragon can be slain. And the death blow will come not by a sword, but by a wallet.

Obama is about to raise another $30 Million this month. Previously he raised $32 Million in January. Since last night, he's raised $4 Million. His donors haven't been exhausted like Clinton's. Clinton has probably the best fund-raiser in the Democratic Party in the person of Terry McAuliffe, and he can't fundraise anymore. Clinton's donor rolls have been exhausted because most have given the allowable limit. It was shocking when Drudge had a red-colored alert all day today shouting to the world that Clinton had lent herself, err her campaign, $5 Million. That coupled with the news that some of her staffers are now working pro bono—going without pay for this month—suggests a campaign in crisis. Hillary Clinton, the once inevitable candidate, the long-time front-runner, has a cash flow problem. This doesn't happen to a front-runner. And we already had one Lazarus in this campaign.

Super Tuesday Results 5

2008-02-06T00:43:00.001-05:00

CLINTON, MCCAIN WIN CALIFORNIA

The big results came in almost simultaneously around 12:15am.

Clinton: Held onto lead in California, lower-than-expected African-American turnout, Clinton keeps Hispanics without much erosion. An important factor that might have been a key to her success was early-voting: Many people voted before Obama took off as of late with his momentum, adding credence to the conventional wisdom that if Super Tuesday would have been held one week later, Obama might have fared better in California. Clinton's lead in California is indeed quite substantial. Women made up 55% of California Democratic voters, 57% voted for Clinton. 65% of Hispanics voted for Clinton. As the delegates come in, we'll have a clearer picture as to where this race stands, but I believe it's not completely over for Obama.

McCain: Arnold Schwarzenegger's endorsement might have been the key to putting McCain over the top. Among Republican voters many approved of Gov. Schwarzenegger and among those who approved of him, they went for McCain. More exit polling data to be posted as they become available.

Today, Wednesday, Romney will have "frank discussions" with his staff as to where he goes from here.

The narrative will be on full display later this morning as the spinning continues when Today, Good Morning America, and The Early Show go live on the East Coast.

Update (12:57am ET): NBC News predicts that the Delegate count for Democrats as of right now has Obama +4, 841-837.

Update (8:25am ET): RCP's delegate counts with the overnight numbers coming in have Clinton leading Obama in the Delegates count, 897-822, which has Hillary +75.

Update (8:43am ET): Tim Russert went on the Today show, saying that NBC's projections hold that Obama captured 840 delegates last night, to Clinton's 830. The Obama Campaign believes that they won 845 delegates to Clinton's 836, as shown on a spreadsheet which they released. They also state that in terms of total delegates number, Obama has 908 pledged delegates to Clinton's 884.

Note: RCP is using projections gather from the Associated Press, Washington Post, CBS News and RCP's own numbers. At this point, however, with how NBC and the Obama campaigns have successfully analyzed the race (the Obama campaign was the first to accurately state that they had indeed won more delegates in Nevada), I trust that the NBC News and Obama numbers give us higher confidence in their prognostication. DrudgeReport also believes this as he has made "Election Shock: Obama passes Clinton in Delegate Count" as its top headline.

Super Tuesday Results 4

2008-02-05T23:38:00.001-05:00

At the end of the day, it's about the delegates. The widget that I have on the right side-bar denotes the official delegate count as assigned by official election results, according to the NBC News Politics Desk.

Obama and McCain are still awaiting the results coming out of California, which might take awhile to come in. More than a million voters voted with absentee ballots and they need to be counted and can indeed sway the campaign. We may not have substantial numbers until early tomorrow morning.

That being said, McCain is pulling far ahead of Romney in delegate count, and Huckabee might even have more delegates than Romney when all is said and done. If this happens, Huckabee, who until tonight was a one-hit wonder (Iowa) might indeed become viable again and be the "Conservative" alternative to McCain. Depending on what happens in California, McCain may not have this completely locked. Again, it's all California. As of right now (11:33ET), with 6% of precincts reporting, McCain leads Romney by 100,000 votes in California. Romney might indeed not pursue this to the end, positioning himself for another presidential run. He's not that popular within the establishment and he doesn't want to ruin his chances to become the standard-bearer of the party in the future. We might have a Republican nominee by the end of the week, even as early as tomorrow.

The Obama campaign says that their internal Delegate number shows Obama leading 606-534. Conventional wisdom holds than neither candidate on the Democratic side pulls away from a with a substantial delegate margin after tonight, therefore the nominee may indeed take some time to decide, with a small possibility that we'll once again witness an honest-to-God Convention floor fight when the Democrats meet in Denver come late August.

Update (11:45ET): Obama: "Our Time Has Come..."

Super Tuesday Results 3

2008-02-05T22:36:00.001-05:00

Trends (as of 10:30ET):

Obama has won 8 states, Clinton 6
- Obama campaign said to be "over-performing" in some states which can help when the delegate count is accurately assigned
- Hillary wins Massachusetts which puts into question how potent the Kennedy endorsement really was
- Early worry in the Clinton camp since it took some time to call Tennessee—a couple of months ago Tennessee was solidly Clinton
McCain has won six states, Huckabee three states, Romney two states
- McCain is performing strongly in traditional states which would be considered solid "blue" in the General election
  - Picks up states that were once considered to be Giuliani gains
- Romney retains Massachusetts where McCain had stopped to campaign in an effort to humiliate Romney
- Huckabee strong in the south…suggestions arise that he'll become a viable candidate for Veep
Exit Poll snapshots:
- Economy is the most important issue for both Democrats and Republicans (45-47).
  - Democrats after economy: War (29), Healthcare (18)
  - Republicans after economy: Illegal Immigration (22), Iraq (20)
  - 44% of Republicans believe the economy is good, 8% of Democrats agree
- Democrats are looking for change over experience, and Obama 72% believe Obama can bring change. 25% believe that of Clinton
- More Democrats believe Clinton would make a better Commander in Chief, but Obama would unite the country
- Demographics:
  - Obama gaining among women and whites, almost splitting and at times beating Clinton in the White Male vote; Clinton leading among Hispanics
  - McCain leads among Moderates, Romney among Conservatives
  - Evangelicals: Almost split evenly among the three Republicans

The "Big Enchilada," California, polls close in half an hour as of this posting.