Beanieville Inc.

Gold going parabolic

2009-11-24T20:20:00.000-08:00

Is it just my eyes deceiving me, or it gold acting like oil did in 2008 before it collapsed?

Image by Allxan. via Flickr

Doom and gloomers fight amongst themselves

2009-11-23T21:11:00.000-08:00

Roubini says we have asset bubble everywhere and everything is going to end badly.

Jim Rogers says Roubini knows nothing and that he doesn't see any bubble. Jim Rogers sees commodities going higher.

Peter Schiff takes a stab at Roubini and says Roubini doesn't understand gold. Schiff says gold is going higher.

Harvard University financial historian Niall Ferguson claims he's a better doom and gloomer than Roubini in terms of timing and accuracy.

Disarray in the bear camp is probably good for bulls.

Trade #1

2009-11-23T15:21:00.000-08:00

Short SPY afterhours.

Short DIS afterhours.

Market for Tuesday

2009-11-23T15:01:00.000-08:00

We're going down in the morning.

Surprise me otherwise.

Decent chance we'll close red, but I'll check again tonite.

The bears have a chance to rule tomorrow. If they don't take full advantage of it, we bulls are gonna have a great Thanksgiving weekend.

NTAP is growing up

2009-11-23T10:06:00.001-08:00

Currently trading at 30.9

This is another tech stock I like for the next decade, besides GOOG, CRM, AKAM, and VMW.

NTAP is growing up into big cap status, and was voted the best place to work for. Do they have a better cafeteria than Google?

*I own NTAP since this morning. Longer term play.

It's no bull

2009-11-23T08:22:00.000-08:00

We got a gap up above 110.5 and the bull ride continued.

Maybe we should all be cowboys.

What are the largest sources of global warming emissions in California?

2009-11-22T23:26:00.000-08:00

All oil refineries.

# 1) Chevron Refinery "” Richmond: 4,792,052
# 2) Shell Oil Refinery "” Martinez: 4,570,475
# 3) BP Refinery "” Carson: 4,504,286
# 4) Chevron Refinery "” El Segundo: 3,603,446
# 5) Dynegy Power Plant "” Moss Landing: 2,962,149
# 6) Exxon Refinery "” Torrance: 2,852,374
# 7) Valero Refinery "” Benicia: 2,796,057
# 8) Tesoro Refinery "” Martinez: 2,703,145
# 9) Southern Calif. Edison-Mountainview Power Plant "” Redlands: 2,697,142
# 10) La Paloma Power Plant "” McKittrick: 2,544,398

Source: California Air Resources Board

Tesla plans ipo

2009-11-22T18:37:00.000-08:00

Tesla plans to go ipo. Could happen any time now.

Investors in Tesla include:

Daimler AG

Valor Equity Partners

Technology Partners

Draper Fisher Jurvetson/DFJ Growth

DBL

The Westly Group

Compass Venture Partners

Partial List of Individual Investors

Elon Musk

Jeff Skoll

Nick Pritzker

Sergey Brin

Larry Page

Kimbal Musk

Bill Lee

Jeffrey B Straubel

Marc Faber: Gold will rise

2009-11-22T16:07:00.000-08:00

"Gold will outperform U.S. stocks as investors turn to the bullion on further government stimulus spending.

The support level for the commodity will now be at $1,000, which was the precious metal’s resistance level previously.

What will continue to happen is that the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones will go down relative to gold. I think gold will go up more.

Will it go $2,000, $200,000 or $2 trillion? I don’t know, but if you have money printing in the world, then the price will over time rise. It will go up more for things that you just can’t increase the supply, and the supply of precious metals is very limited."

Man arrested for not using Twitter

2009-11-22T11:54:00.000-08:00

Another mall that was packed like sardines.

Read more here:
Police arrested a senior vice president from Bieber’s label, Island Def Jam Records, James A. Roppo, 44, of Hoboken, N.J., saying he hindered their crowd-control efforts by not cooperating.

He was in custody Friday night, pending charges that could include criminal nuisance, endangering the welfare of a minor and obstructing government administration, Smith said.

“We asked for his help in getting the crowd to go away by sending out a Twitter message,” Smith said. “By not cooperating with us we feel he put lives in danger and the public at risk.”

Buffett spree raises stakes in revival bet

2009-11-21T21:38:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia

Berkshire Hathaway has bought shares in ExxonMobil and Nestlé while almost doubling its stake in Walmart in a move that appears to raise Warren Buffett's bet on a US economic revival and what it might mean for energy prices.

The latest investments were made in the quarter ending September 30 and detailed on Monday in filings with securities regulators.

They presaged Mr Buffett's move, less than two months later, to place an "all-in wager" on those same views in the biggest deal of his career, the $26.6bn purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe, one of the largest US railway operators.

Mr Buffett has reiterated the prediction he made in a New York Times editorial in October last year that stocks would outperform cash in the next decade. Since then, the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index has climbed 10 per cent.

"The value of most currencies, including ours, is going to decline in purchasing power," Mr Buffett said told the Financial Times this month. "I still believe, over a 10-year period from now, I would much rather own stocks than cash."

The October 2008 statement, which struck some investors as a premature call on the stock market rally, now looks prescient.

Berkshire's per-share book value, or total assets minus intangible assets and liabilities, surged 10 per cent in the past three months and is up 15.2 per cent from the start of the year, largely because of a rise in the value of its vast stock holdings. The company's value last year slumped 9.6 per cent, its steepest annual drop in Mr Buffett's tenure. Its class A shares, which tumbled last year as the downturn hit profits, and investors fretted about Mr Buffett's derivatives contracts, have rebounded this year.

Berkshire, the holding company Mr Buffett has controlled since 1965, purchased more than 87,000 shares of Exxon, the world's biggest oil producer, and added 3.4m American depositary receipts in Nestlé.

Berkshire's Walmart holdings totalled almost 38m shares at the end of the third quarter, up 90 per cent from the June period. The stake was valued at more than $1.8bn in September.

The Omaha-based company also reported stakes in Republic Services and Travelers, the insurer.

Berkshire's net income tripled to $3.24bn in the third quarter , aided by strong stock markets and derivatives gains.

Berkshire recorded more than $1.1bn in accounting gains on derivatives during the quarter. The gain came mostly from its $30bn-plus portfolio of credit default swaps, which rose in value as rising markets reduced the likelihood that the company would have to pay out on the insurance-like instruments.

Berkshire's operating businesses, which range from insurance to jets, had profits of $2bn during the third quarter, in line with the previous three months.

Jim Rogers: My First Million

2009-11-21T21:30:00.000-08:00

Since Jim Rogers, 67, co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros he has worked as a guest professor of finance at Columbia University and as an economic commentator. In 1998, he founded the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).

Raised in Alabama, Rogers started in business at the age of five, collecting empty soda bottles at the local baseball field. After graduating from Yale University in 1964, he won a scholarship to Balliol College, Oxford. He then got his first job on Wall Street.

Rogers now lives in Singapore with his wife and their two young daughters.

Did you think you would get to where you are?

No, I am as surprised as anyone. I certainly wanted to get somewhere and was willing to work hard. I wanted to retire young, but I never thought I would retire before 40.

When you realised that you had made your first million were you tempted to slow down?

I can remember the exact day of my first million dollars’ net worth. It was in November 1977. I was 35. I knew I needed more than that to do what I wanted when I was 37 – the age I decided to stop working to seek adventure.

What is the secret of your success?

As I was not smarter than most people, I was willing to work harder than most. I was prepared to examine conventional wisdom. If everyone thinks one way, it is likely to be wrong. If you can figure out that it is wrong, you are likely to make a lot of money.

What is your basic investment strategy?

Buy low and sell high. I try to find something that is very cheap, where a positive change is taking place. Then I do enough homework to make sure I am right. It has got to be cheap so that, if I am wrong, I don’t lose much money. Every time I make a mistake, it is usually because I did not do enough homework.

Do not underestimate the value of due diligence. In the 1960s, General Motors was the world’s most successful company. One day, a GM analyst went to the board of directors with the message: “The Japanese are coming.” They ignored him. Investors who did their homework sold their GM stock – and bought Toyota instead.

I’m not buying any stocks at the moment. If anything is undervalued now it is commodities and some currencies.

What has been your most spectacular gain?

The Quantum Fund. When we started the company in 1970, I had $600 in my pocket. Within 10 years, the portfolio had gained 4,200 per cent.

Do you want to carry on till you drop?

No. These days, I spend very few hours a day working, because I have two little girls and I want to spend as much time with them as possible.

Both our girls have a Chinese governess and speak fluent Mandarin. For their generation, Mandarin and English will be the most important languages.

Have you made any pension provision?

I don’t have a pension because I hope I don’t need one. I have accumulated assets and that is what I live on.

What is your commitment to charity?

I have given money to students and schools around the world. I try to give scholarships to students rather than schools, because the students need the money more than administrators.

Do you allow yourself the odd indulgence?

I have been around the world twice. Setting off in 1990, I spent 22 months travelling through six continents on a motorcycle.

On my second trip, which started in 1999, my wife and I travelled for three years through 116 countries in a custom-made Mercedes.

What is the most you have ever paid for a bottle of fine wine or champagne?

I don’t have an upper limit for champagne, but I’ve never had the urge to spend $2,000 on a bottle of wine. I always remember my background. I did not have money as a kid.

Picasso or Art Deco as an investment?

I am at a stage where I am not interested in having or amassing stuff.

Do you believe in passing your wealth to children?

I’ve always thought that, if you give children too much, you will ruin them. I have set up my will so they don’t get much until they are at least 30.

I went to Yale and Oxford and a lot of rich kids were there who never had to work. I know I want my children to be well-
educated and experience the workplace.

Education and the necessity to work changed my life and yanked me out of the backwater of Alabama.

Where should people put their money in the recession?

Invest only in things you know something about. The mistake most people make is that they listen to hot tips, or act on something they read in magazines.

Most people know a lot about something, so they should just stick to what they know and buy an investment in that area. That is how you get rich.

You don’t get rich investing in things you know nothing about.

Bear bloggers and journalists about to go into extinction

2009-11-21T19:43:00.000-08:00

I've been "channel checking" again this weekend, at another major mall.

This one takes the cake in "crowdiness".

It was packed like sardines. There were lots of people shopping. And of course, the wait at Starbucks is long, to the tune of 14 people in line when I was there.

Like I said last week, I believe retail is coming back with a vengeance. The 90% of the employed have saved their money for two years during the recession and now they're ready to spend. And when the retail numbers come out, they will be HUGE.

This is all flying in the face of the bears who are calling for another crash.

I'm still calling for Dow 11,000 year end and Dow 14,000-15,000 next year.

Next week should be a positive week as has been the case in previous pre-Thanksgivings.

Bears need to show more teeth

2009-11-20T08:48:00.000-08:00

If you can't even take out SPY 109, you're all finished next week.

Gap Prediction results

2009-11-19T22:32:00.000-08:00

Maybe I'll do a list like this on the public gap calls:

DATE------------------------------RESULT(& potential profit)

Thursday, Nov. 19,2009-------PASS(+.8 SPY, +50% SPY puts, +130% AAPL puts)

One can use options, futures or just the plain SPY. The options would be at-the-money puts or calls. The gains (as well as the losses) on front month options are much bigger on expiration week.

Question/Answer regarding DRYS and gaps

2009-11-19T22:06:00.000-08:00

Question:

If you knew we were going gap down this (Thursday) morning, why did you buy DRYS yesterday? (This relates to the gap talk in this post.)

Answer:

I purchased the DRYS january calls for a swing trade; hence a gap up or gap down is irrelevant in this case.

Even if I did purchase it for a day trade, I purchased it at before 10:30am . So it was not a gap play for the next morning. There would have been no way that I would know whether we gap up or down at that particular time. Gaps are evaluated near the closing bell, to determine the next morning's move.

Those who have my manuscript know exactly whether it was gonna gap up or down because it was very obvious in this particular case. So it wasn't a hindsight call, even though I didn't actually call it in public. My methodology would have said it would be a gap down.

Hope that helps.

Cat Fight on Capitol Hill

2009-11-19T20:03:00.000-08:00

Fun read on cat fight between Brady and Geitner.

(MarketWatch) -- Justified or not, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has become the whipping boy for everything that's wrong with the economy.

Texas Republican Rep. Kevin Brady backed Geithner into a corner during a hearing on Capitol Hill on Thursday. Brady recited a list of economic problems starting with unemployment and ending with the federal deficit, and concluded: "For the sake of our jobs, will you step down from your post?"

Geithner, to no one's surprise, said he wouldn't resign, and fired back at Brady: "You gave this president an economy falling off the cliff." (Presumably, he meant Brady as representative of the Republican Party, and not Brady himself, because Brady really hasn't done much to affect the economy one way or the other in his 12 years as a backbench congressman, or in his 18 years as an executive at a local chamber of commerce.)

Then it got ugly. Neither man acquitted himself very well during the ensuing cat fight, but then few have over the past two or three years.

No, Mr. Geithner, this financial crisis was not caused by "eight years of basic neglect of basic public goods" such as health care, education and infrastructure. The government has neglected those things, but they didn't cause Wall Street to destroy the economy in a frenzy of greed, nor did it force American consumers to join in the gluttony by spending beyond their means.

No, Mr. Brady, no one has claimed that "the stimulus created several quadrillion new jobs." Gee, you'd think someone who is gloating about all the inaccurate information on the Recovery.gov Web site would try a little harder: The actual claim is that the stimulus has created 1 million jobs, not a quadrillion (which really isn't even a number).

No, Mr. Geithner, you don't really take "great honor and pleasure" in accepting full responsibility for the bailout. It may have been necessary, but it wasn't honorable or pleasurable.

And no, Mr. Brady, the deficit does not "threaten our economic recovery," unless irrational fears stop us from doing what's necessary to get the economy going again. When the private sector is shut down, the public sector needs to step up to keep the economy from falling into a depression. As someone who voted for the Bush stimulus bills in 2001, 2002 and 2003, you certainly agree, don't you, Mr. Brady?

The spat between Brady and Geithner was certainly great theater, but after it was over we were still left wondering: We got the circus, now where is the bread?

--Rex Nutting, Washington bureau chief

Knowing Gaps makes a huge difference

2009-11-19T18:33:00.000-08:00

Btw, I did know that we were gonna gap down this morning (Thursday, November 19,2009), and a big one at that. I just didn't post about it. I figure I don't need to do that everyday, especially if you already purchased the manuscript.

Knowing gaps can be extremely profitable for you over the long run. It also saves you from unnecessary losses. If you had known that we were going to gap down big this morning, you could have avoided buying any stock at the closing bell yesterday. That would have saved you a bundle of money. You could also short stocks if you were confident of the gap direction.

Obviously, if you're a daytrader, knowing whether we gap up or down is very important and makes all the difference in the world. It gives you a distinct advantage over other short term traders.

For futures traders (though I don't recommend futures trading to anyone), you can profit tremendously on being able to predict gaps. Just wait for days you're most certain of the direction of the gap and then place your trades the evening before.

Short term options traders (though I don't recommend strict options trading) can also use gap predictions to do well if they buy SPY options before the closing bell.

You don't play everyday. You just pick the days where you're most certain of the gap direction.

I'll show you how I predict gaps in my manuscript. Just that alone is worth $955, imo.

Market for Friday

2009-11-19T17:32:00.000-08:00

We're gonna gap down again, to at least the SPY 109 area.

Do we reverse into the close? I'm not sure. It depends on what the market does at the opening bell.

A quick pull up at the opening is constructive for bulls. Otherwise, we'll have to wait for a reversal next week.

"Where's Beanie and his solar revolution?"

2009-11-19T11:43:00.001-08:00

I haven't talked about solar for quite awhile now. They were trading sideways; so no need to bring my pompoms everyday. But the big boom in green energy is coming very soon.

I really like STP's earnings this morning and their very upbeat forward guidance.

JP Morgan-Chase just upgraded the stock two notches up, from underweight to overweight, an hour ago.

*I'm fully loaded with STP since this morning.

SoGen says gold to $6,300

2009-11-19T10:39:00.000-08:00

The market is headed to new lows next year, they say.

Societe Generale also says gold could go to 6300. Makes for great headline but I doubt it.

Read more about gold $6,300 here:
Is gold going to $6,300? Dylan Grice, an analyst with Societe Generale, says it’s possible, given the decline in central bank credibility. But investors need to keep one thing in mind: Gold is merely a vehicle to protect the purchasing power of money.

Gold is surging because investors see that the Federal Reserve — more concerned with deflation and unemployment than sound money — may be trapped in a never-ending cycle of monetary accommodation.

Ben Bernanke says he won’t monetize debt, but he already has. His Fed has bought $300 billion of Treasuries and is on pace to buy $1.45 trillion of government-backed mortgage debt all of which is being salted away indefinitely on the Fed’s balance sheet...

The sun rises for Suntech

2009-11-19T07:25:00.000-08:00

I'm impressed with STP's earnings and have added more shares this morning.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Suntech Power Holdings Ltd. reported on Thursday that third-quarter net income fell 30%, but the solar-panel manufacturer said its business promises to brighten next year as it is seeing more opportunities in markets in Europe and Asia.

The world's largest maker of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules earned $29.8 million, or 16 cents a share, compared with $42.6 million, or 25 cents a share, in the year-earlier period.

Revenue dropped 20% to $473.1 million.

Analysts polled by FactSet had expected earnings of 9 cents a share on sales of $432.3 million.

The company said it's seeing a significant increase in demand compared to the second quarter, which it attributed to a seasonal rush before end-of-year policy adjustments.

The group said it expects fourth-quarter shipments to be at least 10% higher than the third quarter.

Suntech /quotes/comstock/13*!stp/quotes/nls/stp (STP 15.63, +0.54, +3.58%) raised its full-year shipment target to a range of 640 to 660 megawatts from 600 megawatts.

For 2010 it expects shipments to grow at least 75% from 2009.

Besides strong third-quarter growth in the German market, Suntech saw shipment growth in the U.S. double sequentially. And it expects "rapid development of a number of non-traditional photovoltaic markets," such as the Czech Republic the Benelux countries, and China, the company said.

"To support the increased volume we have decided to move forward with expansion plans," said Zhengrong Shi, chairman and chief executive officer.

Suntech plans to reach 1.4 gigawatts of photovoltaic cell and module production capacity by mid-2010.

"We are extremely well positioned to continue to build market share and serve a growing base of solar customers," Shi said.

Suntech Power shares rose 3.4% to $15.60 in pre-market trades on Thursday.

All hell is breaking loose!

2009-11-18T16:04:00.000-08:00

Ignore the bears. They're not looking so hot lately:

The bears are out in full force again today. Sell everything, honker down, buy gold! They'll show you the way.

A new low is coming in 2009, they say.

Meanwhile, DRYS - a dry bulk shipper - just bought 2 Panamax vessels worth $75 million!

ATHENS, GREECE--(Marketwire - 11/18/09) - DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ:DRYS - News) (the "Company" or "Dryships"), a global provider of marine transportation services for drybulk cargoes and off-shore contract drilling oil services, announced today an agreement to acquire two Panamax vessels for an aggregate price of $75.76m. The vessels, a 76,635 dwt Panamax built in 2007, and a 76,635 dwt Panamax built in 2006, are expected to be delivered charter-free within the first quarter of 2010. This transaction is subject to the approval of the Board of Directors of DryShips.

.

*Bought DRYS calls

2009-11-18T10:39:00.000-08:00

I don't play options very much, and for good reason.

But here's one I bought:

DRYS Jan 7.5 calls

As the market moves higher, I fully expect shippers to do the same because they have been overbeaten.

Bought AONE

2009-11-18T07:31:00.000-08:00

at 16.1...for the long haul.

I think this is good entry for this electric car battery company.