After Further Review ...

Who woulda thought?

2008-02-08T08:47:00.000-05:00

The New York Giants are Super Bowl champions!

It's taken me almost a week for that to sink in.

An 0-2 start to the season left me with the impression that this year would be another 8-8 or 9-7 year, followed by just missing the playoffs or, best-case scenario, one-and-done in the playoffs. But what followed was a story of one of the most resilient seasons by an NFL team in the history of the league.

Prior to this season, the 1985 Chicago Bears and the 1989 San Francisco 49ers comprised my short list of the most impressive playoff performances. The '85 Bears combined to outscore their opponents 91-10 en route to a Super Bowl win. The '89 49ers averaged 42 points a game (and only allowed nine points a game) during their run to a Super Bowl XXIV title.

So how can one put the '07 Giants -- with their victories by 10, 4, 3 and 3 -- in the same company? It's simple. The Giants' ability to win three road playoff games -- one against the top-seeded Cowboys and another in the frozen confines of Green Bay's Lambeau Field -- then to deny the 18-0 Patriots their perfect season by holding New England's record-breaking offense to 14 points to win Super Bowl XLII has to go down as one of the most impressive (and most unlikely) performances in playoff history.

And the emergence of Eli Manning as a franchise QB and face of the G-Men after his stellar playoffs -- capped by a game-winning drive in the Super Bowl and earning Super Bowl MVP honors -- has been equally unlikely. I suspected Manning would end up being a career slightly-above-averge QB. His shortcomings as a vocal team leader and his less-than-ideal in-game demeanor left me extremely skeptical of the Giants' chances of winning a Super Bowl title with him under center. But boy did he ever prove me (and millions of others) wrong.

The icing on the cake for the Giants was the news that came out Thursday that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, the architect of the '07 version of the Big Blue Wrecking Crew, signed a three-year contract extension after spurning the Washington Redskins, who are looking for a head coach.

And one can't forget to mention the personality changes made by coach Tom Coughlin, which earned him the respect of his players and made this Super Bowl run possible. Time after time, players mentioned Coughlin's attitude adjustment as a major reason why the team came together this season. And for that, Coughlin has earned a multi-year contract extension himself.

This is a strange position for me and my Giants. The coaching staff is returning full of confidence. The team can ride the arm of their newly minted franchsie QB. And two other important points: the Giants are nearly $25 million under the salary and are the second-youngest team in the NFL.

Not a bad time to be a Giants fan.

Conference championship predictions

2008-01-18T08:37:00.001-05:00

Not too many people (myself included) gave the San Diego Chargers or the New York Giants a chance last week against the Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys, respectively, but that's why they play the games. After going 2-2 last week, I stand at 6-2 for the playoffs. Not too bad.

This week's predictions:

Chargers at Patriots: Bad blood from these two teams is still boiling from last season's playoff victory by New England, which ended with Patriots players celebrating at midfield in San Diego by mocking Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman's sack dance.

But even though revenge will be on the Chargers' minds, they'll have plenty to overcome. First, quarterback Philip Rivers and tight end Antonio Gates missed practice Thursday and will be game-time decisions. Running back Ladainian Tomlinson also is hurting, but he'll play.

Second, New England beat San Diego 38-14 in Week 2, a game that saw Rivers harassed for much of the game and turning the ball over three times -- a fumble and two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. Tomlinson was held to 43 yards on 18 carries, while New England, which pretty much abandoned the run for most of the year, rushed for nearly 150 yards and showed it could run effectively against the Chargers.

Third, it's always tough for a warm-weather team to fly across the country to play a cold-weather road game.

The only thing that gives me pause about the Patriots is the fact they have significantly cooled off -- as much as a 17-0 team can cool off -- since their red-hot start. New England won its last seven games by an average of 10 points per game, including three wins by three points. This after winning its first 10 games by an average of 25 points per game.

Will that trend continue? Not this week. New England again holds Tomlinson in check, and the Patriots offense makes sure there's no doubt who the best team in the AFC is. PATRIOTS, 41-17.

Giants at Packers: Two of the NFL's oldest franchises, playing a championship game at one of the game's most popular venues, Lambeau Field. Even if you're not a Giants or Packers fan, playoff football doesn't get any better than this.

New York's shocking win in Dallas last week has some people talking of the Giants as a team of destiny. Eli Manning is playing confident, mistake-free football. The defense has made huge plays when they needed to and mastered the bend-don't-break style of football that wins games.

There's only one problem. When talking about destiny, the only person in the NFL who might have more of a rightful claim to that designation than the Giants is Packers quarterback Brett Favre. Thought by many to retire in the offseason, Favre returned and led the balanced Packers all the way to the NFC Championship game. Even as a Giants fan, it's hard not to root for a guy like Favre.

Ex-Giants running back Ryan Grant, who rushed for more than 200 yards last week against the Seahawks, has helped take some of the pressure off Favre, and the defense has playmakers all over the field -- Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and Aaron Kampman on the line, A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett at linebacker, and AL Harris and Charles Woodson in the secondary.

The Giants would need another perfect performance from Manning and a strong running day to stand a chance in such a hostile environment. I don't see it happening, especially considering that Manning's QB rating plummets as the thermometer plummets. PACKERS, 20-10.

Divisional playoff picks

2008-01-11T12:42:00.000-05:00

My 4-0 showing last week -- plus coming close to predicting the final score in two of the games -- has me riding high, and I've all but forgot about my horrendous predictions during the regular season.

This week's games present some interesting match-ups.

Seahawks at Packers: This is the toughest game of the week. The Packers are an extremely balanced team, anchored by a very solid defense. But if Ryan Grant can't run the ball against a stout Seahawks defense that held a red-hot Clinton Portis to 52 yards on 20 carries in Seattle's playoff-opening win over Washington, Brett Favre could be in for a long day. I think this game is decided by a field goal. PACKERS, 20-17.

Jaguars at Patriots: I expect the Jags to give New England all they can handle thanks to Jacksonville's awesome running game. During the regular season, the Baltimore Ravens showed the world that an aggressive rushing attack works against the Patriots because their defense is susceptible to it and it keeps New England's offense off the field. The weather, expected to be cold with no rain or snow, shouldn't hinder Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. PATRIOTS, 30-21.

Chargers at Colts: All this talk of San Diego having Indy's number is great in theory, but when the two teams meet Sunday, all that talk will go out the window. Yes, the Chargers beat the Colts during the regular season. But despite Peyton Manning throwing six INTs and the Chargers getting two TDs from their special teams, San Diego squeaked by with a two-point win at home only after the most clutch kicker in NFL history, Adam Vinatieri, missed a chip-shot field goal late in the fourth quarter. It also poured all game long, something I don't expect will happen inside the RCA Dome. COLTS, 34-17.

Giants at Cowboys: The Giants defense was picked apart in both regular-season meetings with the Cowboys, so New York's only hope is if defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has come up with a new wrinkle to slow down Dallas' offense. The key is to get the great Giants pass rush in Tony Romo's face, something that didn't happen in the regular season. The Giants have won eight straight games on the road, going back to their season-opening loss in Dallas. The G-Men will keep this one close, but I think Dallas will be too much in the end. COWBOYS, 31-24.

NFL playoffs picks

2008-01-04T11:03:00.001-05:00

Following my disastrous showing in the Elston-Possum pick'em contest this season, I feel I must make amends by offering my predictions for the NFL playoffs.

Redskins at Seahawks: Washington has all kinds of momentum coming into this game, but will it be enough to overcome playing in one of the toughest stadiums in the NFL? I don't think so. The Redskins were mediocre for 3/4 of the season, and I expect they'll revert to their mediocre ways against an extremely underrated Seattle defense. SEAHAWKS, 34-10.

Jaguars at Steelers: Who would have guessed that Pittsburgh would be hosting a first-round playoff game as an underdog? Not me. But I think the linesmakers are right. With RB Willie Parker, tackles Marvel Smith and Max Starks, and return man Allen Rossum injured, Pittsburgh is coming into this game missing some key components. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has the Steelers' number, evidenced by their three straight wins in Pittsburgh. The game will be close, but I expect the Jags to come out on top. JAGUARS, 20-14.

Giants at Bucs: As a Giants fan, this game is a tough call. The G-Men played their hearts out in the Week 17 finale against the Patriots, and that could cost them if injured starters Sam Madison, Shaun O'Hara and Kawika Mitchell are unable to play. One thing in New York's favor is the fact that this is a road game, where the Giants have a 7-1 mark this season. Tampa Bay's 9-7 record, in a weak division, doesn't really impress me. They have a solid defense, and a QB in Jeff Garcia who has made a habit of beating the Giants, but I have a feeling New York is going to play spoilers. GIANTS, 24-20.

Titans at Chargers: No offense to Tennessee, but this game is going to be a blowout. The bad blood that developed between these teams following their regualr-season meeting will make this game interesting, but other than that, the Chargers should rout the Titans. Of course, with Norv Turner as coach, nothing is ever a sure thing. Titans QB Vince Young is banged up, and even if he plays I doubt his sore hamstring allows him to make the athletic plays he's accustomed to making. And now that WR Roydell Williams and TE Bo Scaife are out with injuries, the Chargers should easily be able to shut down Lendale White and Tennessee's running game. CHARGERS, 38-7.

Congrats, Possum!

2007-12-31T08:31:00.000-05:00

With the hustle and bustle of the holidays, I neglected to make my week 17 picks. Not that it mattered, as Doc Possum had an insurmountable lead over me.

So congrats, Doc!

The Chemung County SPCA will soon be $100 richer thanks to your pigskin prognostications.

Week 16

2007-12-23T09:01:00.001-05:00

OK, picking upsets and opposite of what Doc is going in most games in hopes of at least having a shot in Week 17.

Bears
Bills
Bengals
Lions
Texans
Jags
Cards
Bucs
Jets
Pats
Seahawks
Redskins
Broncos

Rest of week 15 picks

2007-12-16T12:50:00.000-05:00

Bills
Titans
Packers
Ravens
Patriots
Saints
Jags
Bucs
Seahawks
Colts
Chargers
Giants
Bears

This Week's Picks

2007-12-15T19:55:00.000-05:00

I'm taking the Bengals tonight. Rest of the picks will be posted later.

23 months for Vick

2007-12-10T11:03:00.000-05:00

I can already see it now.

It's October 2009, and Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis is holding a press conference announcing the signing of Michael Vick, fresh from his release from federal prison. After all, Davis' motto for the Raiders of "Just win, baby!" says nothing about discriminating against someone guilty of federal dogfighting conspiracy charges.

It doesn't seem so far-fetched, does it?

A federal judge on Monday sentenced the former Falcons quarterback to 23 months in prison and three years' probation for his role in sponsoring a dogfighting ring in Virginia.

The remaining question is will Vick be away long enough to end his NFL career. My guess is no.

You know someone like the Raiders will give Vick a chance in 2009 or 2010. He'll just be turning 30 by then, and a team desperate for some publicity will rationalize their signing of Vick by playing the "It's the American way to give someone a second chance" card.

And don't look for NFL commissioner Roger Goodell to prevent this scenario from playing out. Despite Goodell's efforts to clean up the league's image through strict behavior policies for NFL players, don't think for one second that the commissioner will stick to his tough ways if it means keeping a moneymaker out of the NFL. And that's just what Vick will be.

So for those wondering what the future holds for Michael Vick, just remember one thing. The NFL didn't become a multibillion-dollar organization on dumb luck. Greed will win out over common sense, and Michael Vick will once again wear an NFL uniform.

Week 14 picks

2007-12-06T21:44:00.000-05:00

OK, I didn't get my picks in before the start of the Redskins-Bears game. I would've picked the Skins, but I'll take a loss because I missed the deadline. Here's the rest:

Buffalo
Cincinnati
Dallas
Green Bay
Houston
Jacksonville
NY Giants
Tennessee
Minnesota
Seattle
New England
Denver
Cleveland
Baltimore
Atlanta

Week 13 picks

2007-11-29T19:16:00.000-05:00

Here begins the comeback of the century as I have Doc Possum in my sights:

Cowboys
49ers
Jags
Chargers
Dolphins
Lions
Seahawks
Falcons
Titans
Redskins
Browns
Broncos
Bucs
Giants
Steelers
Pats

Week 11, 12 results

2007-11-27T13:12:00.001-05:00

In a word -- horrible. Back-to-back weeks of finishing three games behind Doc Possum leave me with a HUGE seven-game deficit heading into Week 13. That means I need to make up two games over each of the final four weeks to win. I'm up to the challenge!

Week 11 results

Team Elston 10-6
Team Possum 13-3

Week 12 results

Team Elston 9-7
Team Possum 12-4

Results on the year

Team Elston 78-50
Team Possum 85-43

Week 12 picks

2007-11-21T21:59:00.000-05:00

I'll update the blog later in the week with the Week 11 results, but let's just say it wasn't pretty.

Week 12 picks:

Packers
Cowboys
Colts
Jags
Texans
Giants
Panthers
Chiefs
Seahawks
Titans
Bucs
Cardinals
Broncos
Chargers
Patriots
Steelers

Week 10 results, Week 11 picks

2007-11-18T09:24:00.000-05:00

Had a horrible 6-8 record last week, but still made up one game, leaving me one back of Possum.

Results on the year:
Team Elston 59-37
Team Possum 60-36

Here are this week's winners:

Bucs
Ravens
Bengals
Packers
Saints
Colts
Jags
Vikings
Eagles
Lions
Steelers
Cowboys
Rams
Bears
Patriots
Broncos

Week 10 picks

2007-11-11T12:03:00.000-05:00

Need to get that lead back.

Panthers
Packers
Chiefs
Dolphins
Saints
Steelers
Titans
Eagles
Bengals
Lions
Giants
Bears
Colts
Seahawks

Is the NBA worth it?

2007-11-09T12:42:00.000-05:00

My love of sports knows no limits. Or is that really true?

Now that the NBA season is upon us, I'm forced to confront the dilemma of whether or not to get DirecTV's NBA League Pass -- for the low, low cost of $179.

After having the MLB Season Ticket the past two years and NFL Sunday Ticket this year, it would be tough to go a sports season without being able to see my favorite team play whenever I want -- in the NBA's case, the Atlanta Hawks.

But is it really worth it?

My wife is very understanding when it comes to the mistress in my life. She gives me every Sunday during the NFL season to lay around and watch football all day (as long as I take her to Target, Sam's Club and TJ Maxx every Saturday, of course). She's taken to my Detroit Tigers by knowing virtually everyone on their roster and surprising me with random comments on things like why Pudge is batting leadoff against lefties.

But I think I may be pushing things if I were to splurge and get the NBA Season Pass. My wife is not a basketball fan. She stomachs Georgetown games for me, and I appreciate that, but I think I risk ruining a good thing if I make sports a 12-month commitment in the Elston household.

So this is me submitting. I will not get the NBA Season Pass. I'll suffer by not getting the opportunity to watch the Hawks miss out on the playoffs for the ninth straight season, but I'm looking at the big picture here.

If I want to keep sports in my life (and not drive my wife crazy in the process), I'll skip the NBA season. Maybe I'll even take the $179 I'll save on sports programming and take my wife shopping. Man, that was a stupid thing to say. Good thing my wife doesn't read my blog!

Week 9 results

2007-11-09T12:38:00.000-05:00

A disastrous week for Team Elston. My 9-5 record wasn't so much the problem, but it was Doc Possum's 12-2 week that made Week 9 a tough pill to swallow.

Results on the year:

Team Elston 53-29
Team Possum 55-27

The animals of Farm Sanctuary have been sending me hate mail since I choked the week after announcing them as the beneficiaries of this contest should I win. I'm going out on a limb and guaranteeing a win this week. Let's get that lead back!!

Week 9 picks

2007-11-04T08:16:00.000-05:00

Team Elston is about to pad its lead.

Falcons over 49ers
Bengals over Bills
Broncos over Lions
Titans over Panthers
Packers over Chiefs
Chargers over Vikings
Saints over Jaguars
Jets over Redskins
Bucs over Cardinals
Browns over Seahawks
Patriots over Colts
Raiders over Texans
Cowboys over Eagles
Steelers over Ravens

Announcement of my charity for pick'em contest

2007-10-30T10:54:00.001-04:00

The time has come to announce which charity will receive the $100 donation should I beat fellow blogger Doc Possum in our pick'em contest.

My choice of charity is The Farm Sanctuary, a Watkins Glen-based organization (there's one in Orland, Calif., too) dedicated to the creation of shelters and advocacy efforts to prevent cruelty to animals.

The Star-Gazette ran a story Monday on The Farm Sanctuary, and it's a great organization and worthy cause.

So, for the animals' sake, I hope I can beat Doc and win the contest. And no, Possum, after I'm done spanking you in this contest you will not be eligible for refuge at the farm.

Week 8 results

2007-10-30T10:51:00.000-04:00

Another tie this week leaves Team Elston one game up on Team Possum.

For the season:
Elston 44-24
Possum 43-25

I'm going undefeated this week

2007-10-28T07:44:00.000-04:00

Colts over Panthers
Bears over Lions
Steelers over Bengals
Giants over Dolphins
Eagles over Vikings
Rams over Browns
Titans over Raiders
Bills over Jets
Chargers over Texans
Bucs over Jaguars
Patriots over Redskins
49ers over Saints
Packers over Broncos

On a side note, this will be the last week before I make my decision on what charity I'll be donating my eventual winnings to. Post a comment if you are a charity looking to make an easy $100.

Boston's dynamic duo leading the way

2007-10-26T07:52:00.000-04:00

So much for my World Series prediction.

If the Colorado Rockies have any hope of salvaging this series, they're going to have to figure out how to hit Boston's two best relievers -- Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon.

The pair have been virtually untouchable in the playoffs. They have combined for 13 2/3 innings of shutout ball, allowing eight hits and four walks while striking out 12 batters.

And these aren't your typical 21st century bullpen arms, either. Okajima and Papelbon routinely pitch multiple innings in their appearances. This makes it extremely difficult for teams to beat the Red Sox, even if they can get a few runs off Boston's starter, when they have the prospect of facing the dynamic duo over the last four innings.

People expected dominance out of Papelbon. He's been a highly touted prospect for some time. But Okajima's success has really surprised a lot of people. With so much talk in the offseason of the Red Sox spending a fortune bringing Dice-K over, who would have thought the team's best import would be a little-known reliever with a funky delivery?

My World Series prediction

2007-10-23T11:40:00.000-04:00

OK, so I was correct with the winner of my league championship predictions, but I was way off with the number of games it would take.

I thought Boston would have a much easier time than they did with the Indians. And I thought the Rockies' pitching wouldn't be good enough to handle Arizona's bats quite so quickly.

So now we have our Sox vs. Rox series on Fox. Corporate bigwigs at Fox are probably all taking credit for that cheesy little promo credit line as we speak. And those same bigwigs are probably counting on a Red Sox win and the beaucoup TV dollars that will come out of the nation's 7th largest TV market because of it.

But I have news for Rupert Murdoch et al.

The Colorado Rockies will be World Series champions. They're destined to be.

From top to bottom, I'll take the Rockies lineup against the Red Sox's lineup. Boston obviously has an advantage with starting pitching, but that advantage isn't as great as it seems after you get past Josh Beckett and maybe Curt Schilling. Boston's bullpen, the best in baseball for much of the regular season, doesn't have much of an advantage over a very underrated Colorado 'pen. Especially when you consider that Boston's two best relievers, Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon, both pitched five innings in their series against the Indians.

Another key point to this series will be David Ortiz. Boston's Mr. Clutch will be pushed to the limit when his team travels to Colorado and he's faced with playing the field in order to stay in the lineup. Colorado fans are salivating at Big Gimpy playing at first base, begging speedy Willy Tavares and Kaz Matsui to bunt his way every single time they're up to bat.

And Ortiz's shortcomings in the field are only half the problem. Putting Papi at first removes Boston's best hitter in these playoffs, Kevin Youkilis, from the lineup. Will Terry Francona try Youk at 3rd (removing Mike Lowell, who's also played well in the playoffs)? Or maybe right field, sending J.D. Drew to the bench? I'm not sure what they do, but I do know that the limited capabilities of David Ortiz will hamstring the Red Sox this series.

What does all this analysis add up to?? It adds up to a Rockies' victory in six games. What better way to finish off a season of destiny than with a World Series win.

Week 7 results

2007-10-23T10:13:00.000-04:00

Team Elston picked up a game on their arch-rival Team Possum, posting a stellar 11-3 record. With its solid showing, Team Elston has regained its one-game lead on the season.

For the season:
Elston 35-20
Possum 34-21

Week 7 picks

2007-10-21T09:55:00.001-04:00

Bills over Ravens
Lions over Bucs
Titans over Texans
Patriots over Dolphins
Giants over 49ers
Saints over Falcons
Redskins over Cardinals
Jets over Bengals
Chiefs over Raiders
Cowboys over Vikings
Eagles over Bears
Seahawks over Rams
Steelers over Broncos
Colts over Jags