(LOU) Symon Sez Blog

2008-04-02T20:29:00.001-07:00

This is another test of this silly system that hasn't been working. Jay the Webhog is trying to fix it.

Test

2008-03-29T15:18:00.001-07:00

We're having technical difficulties

Popeye's Big Day and a Few Thoughts

2008-03-26T21:40:00.000-07:00

I've been away for awhile. Went to Chicago and have been spending time with my daughter. Sorry if I upset you by not giving you your silly-item fix. The weather has been boring though we had some interesting snow showers on Easter. The river has fallen below flood stage but we will have a series of fronts that more or less get stuck over us so rain will be prevalent in the forecast. It would appear that Southern Indiana will be the most likely trouble spot. Several of the rivers in the Hoosier state empty into the Ohio south of Louisville so it may not be too troublesome for the Ohio River. However, our ground is still pretty saturated and there is that big pile of water that moved down and is now in the Mississippi River so anything that comes from the Ohio will not be able to flow too quickly. Bottom line is to not be too surprised to see the rivers around the area start to rise again including the Ohio. It's too soon to tell if flooding will be an issue again. The rain for the next few days will add to the rivers but I would be more concerned with the early to middle part of next week. Following a few inches of rain over the next 4 or 5 days, it's not out of the question for heavier rain and possibly even strong storms in about a week. Again, it's too soon to tell but we'll be watching.

On This Date In History: In 1937, Crystal City, Texas unveiled the first Popeye statue. They were trying to promote their spinach production and who is better to represent that than the sailor with the big arms?

On this date in 1984, the Ford Escort claimed the best-selling-car-in-the-world crown for the third consecutive year. Now, you didn't see too many escorts around the USA but the global market went bonkers for the first successful sub-compact in Ford's history. The auto helped pull Ford out of the doldrums and many of the features of that car have become standard for small cars in the global industry.

This leads to my thought.

I brought myself to watch the last 20 minutes of Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth and in his conclusion he made a case for things that can be done to reduce emissions. One thing he pointed out was that the global community had a much higher average MPG on cars than the USA. As pointed out above, the Escort was hugely successful world-wide but not so much so in the USA. Gore says we need to raise our standards and largely blames Detroit. Well, Detroit knows that the US customer won't buy the small cars unless he has to. The price of gas went down to about a dollar a gallon or less in the late 1990's. While President Clinton often gets credit for a great economy during his tenure, it should be noted that the price of oil was between $10 and $20 a barrel for the entire time. American responded by demanding giant SUV's. In my mind, they tended to invent reasons of why they needed them. With America grabbing up gas guzzlers, it's no wonder that demand for oil increased. Also, much of the world, particularly Asia, was in a recession during the 90's and they came out of it in the early 2000's which also increased demands. Then you have the international crisis and voila...higher energy costs.

The auto makers can't be blamed because they were reacting to the American demand for gas guzzling SUV's which were quite profitable. I would submit that the American consumer is to blame for the low MPG of the US fleet of cars. As we have seen, the demand for SUV's has decreased following the spike in oil. We've felt the sting in Louisville. But, the MPG in the US will not go up until Americans decide that they want small cars. Gore used Europe, China and Japan as examples but Europe and Japan have limited space for cars and great mass transit systems so they naturally are more inclined to demand small cars. Americans though have wide open spaces and regularly travel much greater distances than the rest of the world. Gore didn't address any of this.

Look, I'm not so sure that the global warming issue is mainly anthropogenic. But, I think that Gore's assertion that we need to become more efficient in our energy use is wise. We will use less of our resources, cut down on pollution and maybe reduce costs. I say maybe because as we see with hybrids, the more efficient means of energy use is often so cost prohibitive that there is little demand. Gore claims we have the technology now. That may be true but is it affordable? And then there are other considerations. Recently, there was a proposal to put up a wind farm offshore of Massachusetts and the residents complained that it would spoil their view. The real inconvenient truth is that until consumers are willing to live with a little pain like a spoiled view or until they are willing and able to afford this new technology, little will change. Another inconvenient truth is that just throwing money at a problem doesn't mean you can change the laws of physics and often this "new technology" is nothing but ideas that often run into technical or physical roadblocks that take years to overcome, if they can be overcome at all.

I guess what I got from the end of Gore's movie was that he made some good points and the encouragement of becoming more efficient has many many benefits that go well beyond any global warming scares. But, I think it would be helpful if someone is going to tell the truth, it's best to tell the whole truth. But, I guess it's easier to attack corporate America, without which we would not enjoy our lifestyle and economy, than it is to blame the citizenry....also known as the voters...who also bear part of the responsibility. Unless someone figures out how to produce a 50 MPG SUV, Americans will have to accept smaller cars and things like windmills offshore. Until then, I'm not sure we can say that the public is really all that serious about becoming more efficient.

Happy Birthday Al

2008-03-14T04:37:00.000-07:00

We're in the midst of some crummy weather after a nice couple of days. We've got a little system from the southwest bringing rain today. Then we get a break. Then another system from the southwest makes Saturday wet. Good thing we've got NCAA basketball on Newschannel 32 on Saturday. By the way...it's the Ides of March on Saturday. It was doom and gloom for Julius Caesar in 44BC...but its just gloom for us. But, we get a two day reprieve before the next southwestern system comes around. We'll be dry but cool on Sunday then mild and dry for St. Patrick's Day....then the next guy comes around to bring rain and maybe t'storms. Tis the season.

On This Date in History: Albert Einstein was born on this date in 1879. Now, just about everyone knows about Einstein and the theory of relativity. I had to derive E=MC(squared) for a physics final. But, there are many many more interesting aspects to Einstein than most people know. It wasn't until recently that the private papers of the physicist was made available. Walter Isaacson has written a very detailed biography and it reveals quite a bit. For instance, young Einstein couldn't get a teaching job! The photo above is from when he was a clerk at a patent office. His personality was apparently really grating on many academicians and so he found it hard to get work at any of the universities. If I recall correctly, I think he even couldn't get a job teaching high school. But I'm not sure. Isaacson co-wrote a book we used in graduate school called The Wise Men: Six Friends and the World They Made and it was quite detailed and revealing about a group of men who largely shaped US post war policy. Well, Isaacson is quite detailed again with Einstein: His Life and Universe . Einstein's personal life is also very odd, if not interesting. However, I'd recommend not reading it if you want to think of Einstein as the brilliant man with the funny hair. Reality sometimes spoils the image.

You Thought We Had Snow Issues

2008-03-11T21:36:00.000-07:00

Great looking weather for the next couple of days. A warm front approaches tomorrow which should shift our winds to the SE and our temperatures will moderate. Then the warm front quietly moves through and we move to the low to mid 60's on Thursday but a cold front comes through late Thursday and rain chances increase. Now, that front gets hung up and an area of low pressure will wander across the boundary from the SW and rain chances return for Saturday before we dry out for Sunday. If we were cold enough, then this would be a perfect snow scenario again, but the Thursday night cold front doesn't have enough cold air associated with it.

On This Date In History: We had a big snow last weekend and you know what, late season storms often are the most potent snow makers. It's because often as you head toward spring, you get more systems grabbing Gulf or Atlantic moisture and because it's still winter, cold air still is able to work in, though not as frequently as the earlier months. But in the earlier months, typically, there isn't as many opportunities for oceanic moisture to help set up a good snow scenario. On this date in 1888, New York City received some 40 inches of snow in what is known as the Great Blizzard of 1888. Hundreds were killed. Telephone lines were down and the city was paralyzed for several weeks as snow drifted to great levels. For a time, communications with Boston had to go through London! These days, we have the infamous "brine solution" and of course plows and salt trucks and we take things for granted. These guys couldn't even get ahold of Boston and we get upset when our cable goes out.

On this date in 1831, Clement Studebaker was born in Gettysburg, PA. He and his brother Henry created a wagon building business and became the largest wagon and carriage maker in the world. Much of their success came from their sales to the Union Army during the Civil War. With the advent of the automobile, the company became a successful independent company and during WWII, they found success making amphibious vehicles, trucks and aircraft engines as well as affordable family sedans. But, unlike the Civil War, WWII had another side to it. After the war, the government subsidized the transformation of plants for the big 3 automakers and independents like Studebaker found it hard to competitor. In the mid 1950's, it merged with Packard but that ventured failed in 1958. Like a Phoenix, Studebaker rose again in 1959 only to finally close for good in 1966.

World War II was not as kind to the Studebaker Brothers as the Civil War had been. History did not repeat itself and now the Studebaker is on the ash heep of history. Clement though had no clue about his company's demise. He died in 1901, well before the horseless carriage became a part of his company's legacy.

You Gotta Like This

2008-03-08T00:17:00.001-08:00

Come on now...it's a very nice snow. Snow White left to work the prayer line at church this evening. Her meteorologist husband told her..."sure, the roads will be fine! Heavy stuff won't come for a few hours." 30 minutes later she's back telling me that she couldn't see the lines on the road. I had noted a little bit of sleet but generally thought she was being foolish.

While doing my taxes, I spied out the window from time to time and saw what looked like little misty flakes. Kept wondering when the big stuff would get here...then I went out to the car and saw that our steps that had been clean 3 hours before were not just covered, but had about 3 inches of snow on them. The drive way, which had been cleared, was totally covered. Two hours later, my footprints were all gone and I had snow drifting up to the front door. The steps had disappeared. So much for the expert opinion. Lesson number one: always listen to Snow White or you end up being Dopey.

So, Snow White and I went for a two AM walk. No cars except one. No people, except three. The wind whispered through the trees. We made snow angels. It was quite fun. It was our second walk of the day though the sun was up before and it was about a 2 hour hike instead of the one hour after midnight jaunt.

See....I'm from Texas...closer to the real South than around here. And we don't get snow like this in the real South and not much in the part of Texas that I'm from. So in my ten years here, I make it a point to always get out in the snow as much as I can. It just so happened that it was a day off for me. And you know what....we're going into the weekend. The schools are out for a couple of days and most businesses won't be interrupted. Couldn't have happened at a better time so I hope everyone takes the time to enjoy it. It's a wonderful powdery snow with no ice to mess things up. Probably the best powder I've seen here in all of my decade as a resident...even the best I've seen since I last skied at Beaver Creek.

Now..I may be from Texas (and maybe even dopey) but even we have some smarts that I could pass on to some criminals around here. I always figured that on days and nights like this, the crime rate would be zero. I mean, even the criminals can't get around too good. Well, the one car and 3 people we saw tonight was an SUV with 3 police officers. They were hot on the trail of a criminal. They asked Snow White and I if we had seen anyone and I said, "no, but there are some fresh footprints in the snow." The officer acknowledged my observation and commented that they were following the same footprints. Seems a not too smart burglar left a trail that only Hansel and Gretel would love. My guess is the creator of the prints won't spend the night in an oven, but will probably be cooling his heels nonetheless.

Be sure to thank a police officer for being out in weather only Dopey could love.

Believe It. Big Snow

2008-03-06T21:23:00.000-08:00

I'm not even going to bother with another map. The previous one basically applies. Only real difference is that the southeastern part of the viewing area, such as Green and Marion counties will probably get 3-6 inches. Much of the viewing area will be 6-12 inches. Also, probably there won't be much rain early on and then a bit of sleet but this will be mainly a snow event for the whole area, save for the east and southeast that may have the mix last farther into Friday.

The event will begin early Friday. Driving conditions should be fine in the morning. It's the afternoon and evening drive that will be problematic. Pretty good snow from late morning until late afternoon. Then a break in the action. Then Friday night through Saturday morning there will be moderate to perhaps brief periods of heavy snow. There may be some flurries through Saturday afternoon. It will be cold all weekend...while some people may sneak above freezing Sunday afternoon, most of us will probably below freezing until Monday afternoon.

Now, I had some kid quibbling over whether he would get 9 inches or 12 inches...you know what..at that point it doesn't make much difference.

Oh..one other thing. Some of the models throw out as much as 16 inches and that may hold true BUT...the first part of the event, the ground will still be fairly warm at first. Remember, we got up to 54 degrees on Thursday. Our temperatures overnight will fall to the low 30's and then pretty much stay around the freezing mark on Friday. So, it will take a little time for the ground to get cold enough to support accumulations. Further, the early snow will be pretty wet and so the early accumulation will compact a bit easier. Effective snow totals therefore may be a bit less than official snow totals. Then again, the later snow will probably be more than just a 10-1 ratio...a more fluffy variety of say 15 to 1 ratio. So maybe the late Friday snow totals may be enhanced somewhat by a larger ratio.

Any way you slice it, this is our best shot at a very substantial snow in about 10 years. The last good one we had was around Christmas of 2004 and that wasn't all that good because there was a bunch of sleet and freezing rain in between. A few years ago, there was an event in which up to 3 feet of snow fell in the northern part of the viewing area and Louisville got sleet and a little snow. So areawide, this is the best in some time.

Let's all enjoy it.

Break Out the Snow Shoes!

2008-03-06T15:29:00.000-08:00

Hey. I often make fun of snow forecasts by saying, "don't break out the snow shoes just yet." Well, some people may need the snow shoes. If you can't read the map above very well, it's the early afternoon Meso-ETA. It paints a snow total of 10 to 18 inches along the counties either side of the Ohio River. That may be a stretch but, I'll tell you what, I have noticed over the past couple of days that there is very strong flow coming up from the Eastern Gulf of Mexico so there is a whole mess of moisture coming up. So, that's not a problem. Late runs indicate the slight eastern wiggle is consistent and the cold air does filter in.

Now...remember that the intitial activity may have some sleet or rain mixed in and that we got to the lower 50's on Thursday so it will take some time for the ground to get cold. Look for accumulations on the grass first then the roads. Travel will most likely be the most difficult for the evening rush hour Friday and then all Friday night through early Saturday.

While not everyone will get the heaviest snow, everyone should get a fair amount with lesser amounts tapering off pretty rapidly with distance from the Ohio River. But if you get a bunch of snow, just enjoy it. It's the weekend.

Then ask yourself if you really think that Louisville is in the South.

Winter Storm is Coming

2008-03-06T10:37:00.000-08:00

The Top photo is the GFS. The lower photo is the ETA using a modified method of snow accumulation. Both have shifted slightly Southeast. The gradient is still extremely tight and have from Louisville northward anywhere from 6-12 inches of snow. It is a very slight shift...only about 30 miles or so but as previously mentioned, a little wiggle like this makes all the difference. What is clear is that someone in the viewing area will get a snootful of snow. Others will get a fair amount, lets say 1-3 inches. If you click on the images, you should get an idea of how tight the gradient is. Two things to remember: One is that these are just what some machine thinks and its possible the wiggle may be farther north; the other is that if you like snow, it's a good sign that both models are pretty similar. However, when delving into some of the numerical data, some suggest all snow while others suggest a fair amount of sleet which would cut down on snow totals.

Get your work done today and expect a wintry situation, especially late Friday through Saturday. The event will probably not wind down until late Saturday. Saturday can be expected for most areas to be all snow. The event will start early Friday with many areas getting a cold rain before it turns over to sleet and snow. The northern part of the viewing area should expect all snow. It's not out of the question that some areas in the Southern Indiana may get more than a foot. This may be fun.

Latest on the Storm

2008-03-05T21:10:00.000-08:00

Here is a snapshot of what might happen. It's a little small but you can see that the heaviest stuff is in southern Indiana. Its a very tight gradient of snowfall. For instance, it goes from 2 inches in SE Jefferson County but at the river its 6 inches. We are looking for 1-3 inches south of the river, just north of the river in a narrow band some 3-6 inches and then in an area in Southern Indiana that would include perhaps Paoli and Seymour and points to the northwest, 6-12 inches. So...why not so much snow?

There is a developing consensus that we will get rain for much of the day on Friday. Perhaps some sleet, especially along and just north of the river. The way it appears now, we don't get any snow until after midnight on Friday and the snow carries on overnight and through much of Saturday. Southern Indiana in the 6-12 inch area gets all snow the whole time. The extreme southern part of the viewing area will largely get rain with just perhaps some minor accumulations on Saturday.

Here's the rub. First off, the models are in fair agreement but, the storm is just now starting to get itself going and really doesn't wrap up until late Thursday night. It won't be until that time that we will be able to see exactly where it will track. So, if we assume that the current consensus holds regarding the general track, the specifics will be the variable. If the current thinking is off by say, 30 miles to the East, then the heavier snow would shift and the 6 inch line would be pretty close to Louisville. If the track shifts 30 miles farther west, then the 1 inch line gets closer to Louisville. Keep in mind that the trends with the model runs for the last few days has been farther and farther west, which is what we had been looking at as a possibility. Now, does this mean that it will continue to shift west? It's possible. Can it shift significantly to the East? I suppose it's possible but not probable as that would be extremely unusual.

I suspect that the general track will hold true but the little variable with regard to the exact snow gradient lines will be troublesome. Again, I'm talking about a little wiggle of 30 miles which would alter things for many people dramatically. When you consider that the earth is 25000 miles around and the storm we're trying to track really hasn't even formed yet, it's pretty tough for computers as well as people. Also remember that, regarding snow, if it were rain there wouldn't be any question. Generally, the liquid equivalent of 6 inches of snow is .60 inches of rain and 3 inches would be .30". In that situation, you might hear that we were expecting a quarter to a half inch of rain and everyone would say, "Okay, you got that pretty much right." No big deal, right? But snow...people tend to squawk and call in with ridicule if we said 3 inches of snow and you got 6 inches instead. So it's real tough. Even more so when you call for an inch of snow and instead you get a half inch. The difference in that is .10" and .05" of rain! That is really negligible but with snow....it's really tough.

This should show itself Thursday. Tune in on TV and Jay will have some pretty good graphics to show you the story.

Pay Attention!

2008-03-04T20:29:00.000-08:00

I'm watching election coverage tonight so I will keep what happened on this date in history to myself. But I won't keep to myself what is going on weather-wise. I mentioned yesterday that the attention being stirred up by wild pronouncements may have shrouded the real trouble-maker at the end of the week. At this point in the game, I would say that the data is more promising for accumulation of snow on Friday than this last system (today) 72 hour prior. It's a real possibility BUT...some of the latest data is suggesting a shift in the path..pretty significant. If the data remained as it is, then we get snowed on. If the trend continues of shifting farther west, then we don't. Last week there were clear clues that we'd get rain. This time, the clues are more difficult to ascertain.

Like the last storm, the current culprit for any potential problems hasn't even formed yet. Nevertheless, un-like last week when I we were pooh-poohing the storm, I'd tell you this one bears watching. Like last week's storm, this guy should show itself in the next 24 to 36 hours.

Now, I've got to get back to the game!

Rain The Big Money Grab

2008-03-03T18:48:00.000-08:00

Forecast is right on schedule. Rain and more rain. The front will ease into the area and get stuck in the southern portion of the viewing area. If you can, imagine the front as a big wedge, similar to a cow catcher on the front of an old west steam engine. In this case, the front bottom edge of the cow catcher is where the surface front is and then it slopes upward as you move farther north. When you get to about 5000 feet, you are back over the southern part of Indiana. It is typical that the heaviest rain in this type of set up would be directly under that 5000 foot level. Therefore, its most likely that the heaviest rain totals will be in Southern Indiana and lesser amounts across the rest of the viewing area. 1-3 inches for much the area seems about on target with the higher amounts for the northern part of the viewing area. The rain will most likely end by midday on Tuesday. After a period of drying, its possible the event may end as a few insignificant snow showers. With all of the hub-bub surrounding this Tuesday snow nonsense, some folks may have lost focus on the latter part of the week. We will be cold after Wednesday and an upper system comes in Friday that may be more interesting than this sloppy, yuckadoo rain. Don't fret about severe weather as that will be the claim for the Dixie States. The latest map from the boys at the Severe Storms Lab is above.

On This Date in History: Congress has the Constitutional right to pass a budget....they get to spend our money. They even get to pay themselves and set their own salaries. Whenever they give themselves a raise, some people are likely to cause a ruckus. On this date in 1873, Congress outdid itself. They gave themselves a raise. They gave themselves a 50% raise. They made the 50% raise retroactive to two years prior. Perhaps as a bit of subterfuge, Congress also doubled the salary of the President and that of the Supreme Court justices. Not just some people, but a whole lot of people were quite upset. Those people are called citizens and those citizens have the right to vote on Congress.

The act passed became known to the general public as the "Salary Grab Act." It took effect on March 4, 1873 which coincided with the beginning of President Grant's second term. 1874 was a Congressional election year and I suppose the members of Congress got a snootful from their constituents for the rest of 1873 as on January 20, 1874 Congress repealed the part of the act that applied to them but kept the raises for the President and the Supreme Court. I suppose one might surmise that this event was pivotal because the Democrats regained control of Congress in the 1874 elections.

Now, that in itself was significant because the Republicans had been following some sort of plan for Reconstruction and the Democrats controlling Congress put a monkey-wrench into those plans. It's possible that the "Salary Grab Act" was partly responsible for the end of Reconstruction and the beginning of civil strife that would last until the 1960's.

See...the next presidential election in 1876 ended with a controversy, similar to the 2000 election. Democrat Sam Tilden received 250,000 more votes than Republican Rutherford B Hayes and initially he led the electoral count 184 to 165 with 20 votes in dispute. Those 20 votes came largely from 3 states in which both sides claimed to have won the electoral vote. Ultimately a deal was cut in which the electors in dispute would be awarded to Hayes and give him the victory 185 to 184 and in return, Hayes agreed to effectively end Reconstruction and pull Federal troops out of the states of the former Confederacy. Had the Republicans retained control of the Congress in the previous election, then they may not have been forced to trade the White House for Reconstruction and that may have altered the course of Civil Rights in this country for the next 100 years.

Another fine example of how a relative blip in history can cause a potential big bop down the road.

Rain, Storms and the Republic of Texas

2008-03-02T17:46:00.000-08:00

Late Sunday the SPC identified an area well to our south for a moderate risk of severe weather for Monday night through early Tuesday. The map above is from Sunday evening. We are not in the slight risk. As I've been telling you for days, an area of low pressure will form along the front in East Texas. As it moves our way, rain chances will increase. We will probably get in the neighborhood of 1-3 inches of rain. In other words, its developing just as we've been saying for the better part of a week. There may be some minor flooding with this event. On down the line, we may need to keep an eye on the Ohio River as rain and snow melt early this week will cause a water rise toward the end week. Snow will be minimal and basically worthless as ground temperatures will be too warm to support much accumulation. We will have a fair amount of wind energy aloft that may come down to the surface in scattered t'storms late Monday, most likely Monday night or early Tuesday. That is why we are in the 5% range but not the slight risk. We will get so much rain that it should dampen our chances for rough weather and the best dynamics will be to our south. My guess is that the areas in the lower Mississippi Valley that had the biggest thumping from tornadoes on Feb 4 will be under the gun again. Our biggest threat will come from gusty winds and perhaps some hail. Rain amounts will be problematic in our area. Stay tuned to newschannel 32 for updates Monday on how this thing shakes out. Jay will really nail it all down for you.

On This Date in History: On this date in 1836, about 187 men were huddled in a mission at San Antonio de Bexar in the Mexican Republic. They were a band of Texicans...mainly expatriated Americans living as Mexican citizens. The Mexican government under the rule of General Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna who had welcomed the new residents provided that they lived under Mexican law. Trouble was, these settlers to Texas were an independent sort and wanted to do things their way, which was often the American way. At that time, many Americans had slaves and these Texicans wanted to keep their slaves but Mexican law forbade slavery. This was one of the issues the Texicans had with the Mexican government.

Santa Anna had sent various armies into the region to restore order and make certain the settlers were well healed. But, his surrounding and siege of the Alamo put the Texans to the test.

On March 1, the leaders of the region got together and in one day wrote a declaration of independence. It was signed on this date in 1836 by many men, included Sam Houston. The former United States Senator from Tennessee and potential United States presidential candidate was put in command of the fledgling Texas Army and was made General. But he needed time to raise and train his army. So the men at the Alamo, with Texas heroes such as David Crockett, James Bowie and William Barrett Travis held out instead of retreating. Just 4 days after Texas declared its independence, the Alamo fell as the victorious Santa Anna gloated over the death of all 187 defenders.

The Texans got their revenge though because in April of that year, after weeks of retreating and running, General Sam Houston led his men to a site on Buffalo Bayou near the city that today bears his name. The Mexican Army was resting at its camp with Santa Anna said to have been in his tent with the famous spy, the Yellow Rose of Texas. Though far outnumbered, Houston's Army defeated the Mexican Army and captured Santa Anna in just 26 minutes. Santa Anna was forced to capitulate and sign papers recognizing Texas' Independence. Not to be a poor sport, Houston allowed Santa Anna to return to Mexico City. But, just like the Brits didn't really accept America's independence until the War of 1812, Santa Anna didn't really accept the terms of Texas' independence until he was defeated in the Mexican War of 1846 which was fought in a dispute between the US and Mexico over the boundaries of the then 28th state of the Union.

Prior to that date, Texas was an independent nation for ten years. It's president.....Sam Houston. After becoming a state, Sam Houston served as a Senator; the only man to serve in the United States Senate from two different states. Houston then was elected governor of Texas but resigned at the outset of the Civil War after Texas seceded. Texas joined the Confederacy and lost the father of the country...just for a time. Today, Texans proudly recall the exploits of Sam Houston, who along with others Texas patriots, declared his independence on this date in 1836.

The flag above was the one flown at the Alamo. The 1824 was a reference to the United States of Mexico as recognized by a liberalized Constitution in 1824. The Texicans, or Texians, were initially in support of a larger revolutionary movement throughout Mexico that said its aim was to force the largely totalitarian government of Santa Anna to follow the Constitution.

Snow White says this sounds too much like a textbook and too much Texan-like. I say, so what...It's Texas Independence Day!!!

Witch Hunt, Now and Then

2008-03-01T17:27:00.000-08:00

We've had a real witch-hunt the past several days for big snow. I'll begin by again stressing that the storm we are talking about still hasn't formed. The system from the Northwest is just getting going and when it reaches the Gulf Coast on Monday, then an area of low pressure will form somewhere in SE Texas. Its that low that will run our direction that is causing all of the hub-bub. As it forms it will hold up the front and the cold air. As it moves up our way it will draw up alot of moisture and warm air at all levels. Right now, all indications remain as we have been saying all along. This should be mainly a rain event for us with rain starting late Monday as the low moves up and the rain carrying into much of Tuesday. As the low passes the front will move through and the temperatures will fall. Any wrap around moisture would fall as snow. At this point, it appears we can expect 1-3 inches of rain and very little snow. There is a general consensus with the data for this. What will remain to be seen is, once the low forms, then we can find out if it behaves itself. But, at this time, there is nothing that supports the perhaps wishful notion that we will get a bunch of snow but there is every indication that we will have some high clouds and mild conditions on Sunday...so get out and enjoy it and stop chasing shadows. We'll let you know if it changes.

On This Date in History: In late 1691 and early 1692, some girls in Salem, Massachusetts began to scream that devils were pinching them, convulsing and doing all sorts of twitching. They were fed what were called "witch cakes" and they subsequently began accusing a bunch of women of hanging out with Satan! The doctor was called and the diagnosis was an acute case of suffering from witchcraft. After hearing the diagnosis, the girls confirmed the diagnosis. On this date in 1692, the infamous Salem Witch Trials began. Nearly 150 people, mainly women, were accused of consulting with the Devil!! By the middle of the year, some 19 people had been hanged...well....18 were hanged...some poor man named Giles Corey was executed by pressing. By October 1692, Governor of the Massachusetts Colony William Phipps brought an end to the nonsense and all trials were halted, the accused released and there were no more hangings or pressings.

Here is an interesting theory of what really happened. The girls had eaten grain contaminated with the fungus ergot. Ergot is largely made up of an alkaloid. That alkaloid is lysergic acid amide which has properties very similar to lysergic acid diethylamide which is best known today as LSD. Yes indeed, it is possible the Salem Witch Trials could have been caused by girls dropping acid.

No word on whether the girls' hallucinations included a call for a snow storm.

Great Day for a Birthday

2008-02-29T19:30:00.000-08:00

I wish today was my birthday. I'd only be 1/4th my current age.

The weekend weather looks great. Don't worry about next week. The storm, it's intensity and path still haven't shown themselves. Heck, the storm hasn't even formed yet...but it will. Maybe it knew it was leap year and so its waiting for March so it can be a lion.

I pondered today and came up with this gem. There are people out there running around acting so certain about anthropogenic global warming. How can they be so sure when man can't even make a calendar that doesn't require a quick fix every four years.

Hope you made your extra day of 2008 worthwhile. Snow White and I walked around Cherokee Park. Now my feet hurt.

Flip Flop Weather and 3 Kings

2008-02-28T10:58:00.000-08:00

What in the world can John Tyler, J. Paul Getty and Richard Petty have in common? They are part of this date in History!!! But the weather may prove even more interesting than the subject of today's tale.

First off, Thursday's sunshine will turn to rain for at least part of Friday. Saturday we're dry but a little cool...somewhere in the neighborhood of the mid 40's. That's not bad considering what we've had. Hold on to your pacemakers though because Sunday looks great. Strong southerly winds blow in temperatures in the upper 50's or maybe even low 60's. Take advantage of the weekend while you can. We haven't had back to back days like that in a while. This is where we may flip or flop. A cold front comes through bringing rain and chilling us a bit. Now, there is general agreement that cyclogenesis will occur on the bottom of the front near the gulf coast. What is that? It's not unusual. The wind patter works with the differing temperatures on land and at sea to form an area of low pressure. Cyclo..as in cyclone or low pressure...and genesis..the beginning. So, the low will probably form. Question is where does it go? Some data suggests it goes across the SE to the East coast. That is typical. But other data suggests it runs generally up the Mississippi River Valley into our neck of the woods. Now, the latter scenario is what has been happening all winter. Should that happen, we get wet. If it's cold enough we may even get a whole mess of snow. BUT...a problem with the snow scenario, provided everything moves as suggested, is if we have enough cold air.

Bottom line is if you hear before the weekend about a snowstorm next week, don't get all worked up. Is it possible? Yes. BUT, there are many hurdles to overcome and many factors have to come into line exactly right and that is far from clear or imminent. I can tell you about "my feelings" on the subject but the truth is that atmospheric physics doesn't take my feelings into account. My only feeling worth sharing is to enjoy the great weekend and as you do, we will see how it shakes out. The scenario won't really show itself until Sunday or Monday. And keep this in mind...the model that first advertised this big event had it and then it completely made it disappear into fat air. Then magically, it reappeared. So...it's possible but not necessarily probable...just enjoy the weekend.

On This Date In History: On this date in 1844, President John Tyler almost bought the farm. He was cruising on the USS Princeton the Navy's newest and best warship that featured a 27 inch cannon. Trouble was, the cannon hadn't been tested. Nevermind, the bigshots in Tyler's cabinet wanted that sucker fired! So they fired it twice and it worked. The designer of the gun begged them not to tempt fate a third time to no avail. They fired it a third time and it exploded, killing a bunch of people. Now, Tyler had a wife when he took over for William Henry Harrison, whom had died after just several weeks in office. Tyler had 8 kids with the wife. No wonder she died. So, the then single President had taken a fancy to a 20 year old named Julia whom Tyler had asked to marry but she hadn't answered. When the gun blew up, it killed her father. I don't know if she wanted a new father or if it was a sign or what, but she then accepted Tyler's proposal and she promptly delivered for Tyler, another 7 kids. Our most pro-creationist President went on to retire to his home in Virginia which had previously been owned by his former boss, President William Henry Harrison! Today, the home is still owned and lived in by the Tyler family. As of this writing one of Tyler's grandsons is still alive. Snow White and I visited the home several years ago and the only other people there were a nice, attractive couple. The young lady turned to me and said, "aren't you the weatherman in Louisville?" Small world.

On this Date in 1960, Richard Petty won his first Grand National race. It was the first of 200 NASCAR victories. Eight months earlier, he had been declared the winner of the race but he lost after the guy who came in second protested the finish successfully. So his first victory was snatched from him by....Lee Petty...his father! Talk about tough love...

On this date in 1982, the J. Paul Getty Museum was endowed. Getty had made a fortune in the oil business and he had developed a love of art so he left a third of his fortune to the museum when he died in 1976. At that time, that was about $700 million. By the time the courts got done with all of the legal wrangling involved in big estate cases, the economy was booming and the endowment grew to $1.2 billion. By 2000, the endowment had grown to $5 billion. Three of every 4 years, the law says that the trust must spend 4.25% in order to maintain tax-exempt status. The first year that was $54 million. Today it's more like $200 million! The trust has a hard time finding places to spend it. They don't want to look like they are greedily hoarding all of the world's art but they have to spend it somewhere. Such problems. Steve Burgin thinks they should give it to him since so many people consider him a national treasure.

A Short Memory?

2008-02-26T18:27:00.000-08:00

Let's see...pretty crummy day ahead. Cloudy, windy, cold. Highs will only get to the upper 20's at best but wind chills will be in the single digits and teens. Also, there will be some flurries flying about. Snow totals overnight and Wednesday will be less than an inch so its not a big deal though wind combined with a few slick spots may make for difficult driving overnight and Wednesday morning. Don't drive too fast...take my word for it....I've got experience driving too fast in wintry conditions. I was just lucky enough to tell you about it.

Did you Forget that on This date in 1993 the World Trade Center was bombed? The above photo is from the ATF files of the incident. Nice hole, huh? I suspect the bad guys got closer to undermining the integrity of the substructure than we were led to believe. No matter, they came back again 8 years later after we forgot about their intentions. While everyone remembers Sept. 11, 2001 and the events of the day I sometimes wonder if we remember enough that we take seriously the possibility that they will come back again, just as they did following their near-miss of February 26, 1993.

On This Date in 1972 a cascade of water funnelled down Buffalo Creek in Logan County, West Virginia. 4000 homes and buildings in 17 towns were washed away and at least 118 people lost their lives. The culprit was a rather ironic foe. The irony lay in that the killer was also the lifeline to many of those who died.

The Buffalo Mining Company was one of a number of companies exploiting West Virginia's greatest natural asset (aside from its beauty) which is coal. Much of the state's wealth and economy is based on coal. But a problem with coal mining is what to do with the wastes. If you put them on a mountain, you get landslides and if you put them in a valley, you spoil the creek or river. The great idea of the Buffalo group was to build a dam. Actually, it was a series of three dams. Because of the type of dam they were, they weren't really regulated much. There really wasn't much of an engineering study done or anything. The waste from coal mining is inherently unstable and makes for a lousy dam. The first dam gave way, putting pressure on the second dam which failed and the huge amount of water spilling down caused the main dam to collapse.

When you look at the steep terrain of West Virginia, it makes you wonder, "what were they thinking?" It's one of those things in which it seems so obvious that using unstable material in such an area that a three-year-old could figure it out that it wouldn't work. To say that its an example of corporate greed is probably a bit over-the-top as I'm sure those with the company didn't want that to happen. Even if you have cynical view of the corporation, from their fiscal standpoint, it cost them a huge amount of money. However, the company was a subsidiary of the Pittston Mining Company and that company had a history of shabby safety practices. So, it would be fair to say that it appears that the company's saving money on safety issues was the root cause of the disaster. But, given what it cost them from lawsuits, lost revenues, fines and other costs it seems that a greedy fellow would have prevented that from happening in order that they may keep more of their money. The result was from short sighted, stupid business practices and its a shame that we have to have government watch dogs to force some businesses to do what is not only smart from a corporate standpoint, but the right thing to do from a human perspective and for a business that relies on the efforts of their fellow citizens of the United States of America for their success.

The World is Shocked

2008-02-25T11:18:00.000-08:00

I have recovered from my slide of doom on the Gene Snyder last Thursday. Jay says it's my own fault for driving 50 mph in an ice storm. That's why he's the chief. This weekend I said we'd get some "stuff" over Louisville with some flakes but that the air temperatures would be above freezing. Generally in the ballpark but I have to admit it was a little more robust than anticipated. Really nothing more than nuisance snow showers and it ended by the afternoon as I suspected but some folks in the northern third of the viewing area did get some minor accumulation that disappeared relatively quickly. Today, my mother-in-law said someone was claiming temperatures near 60 which I knew was bogus and the mid 40's was more likely. I told her to stop watching the wrong channel. As it is, we will probably only get to the low 40's today as the warm front will not get here, though its possible we climb overnight to the mid 40's with rain then the front moves through and we fall to the low 30's by Tuesday afternoon. Snow showers are possible late Tuesday carrying into Tuesday night and ending as flurries on Wednesday...a cold Wednesday at that. Snow White had someone accost her about snow today and we had some calls about salt trucks standing by this afternoon! I'm not sure where that type of information is coming from but the threat of snow does not show up until at least Tuesday afternoon so enjoy the day while you can.

On This Date In History: Muhammed Ali shocked the world with a forecast any meteorologist would love. On this date in 1964, the 22-year-old Louisvillian and Olympic Gold medal champion defeated the feared World Heavyweight Champion Sonny Liston in one of the greatest upsets in sports history. The legend of Ali was well on its way and today, Ali stands as a champion to many, not just in sports but also as a living icon.

On this date in 1928, the Federal Radio Commission issued its first television licence to Charles Francis Jenkins Laboratories for a television station in Washington, D.C. This guy Jenkins must have been sorta experimenting...either that or he was the forerunner to PBS.

See...government has been getting its nose into new technology almost as quickly as it gets started, though they seemed to have hit a wall with the Internet...so far. The Wireless Act of 1910 required ships at sea broadcasting wireless transmission to have trained and licensed personnel at the radio. Did the Titanic alot of good in 1912 when the operators, trained and licensed, were more interested in sending personal messages of the passengers instead of listening to ice warnings. In the 20's, Congress passed a bunch of laws regulating commercial stations, how much power they could use and the use of commercials and such. In 1927, the Radio Act created a new bureaucracy with the creation of the Federal Radio Commission, which became the Federal Communications Commission in 1934. All this regulation and CBS still switched from the Kentucky game with less than a minute to go to the Duke tip-off! There ought to be a law!! We got all sorts of calls and it wasn't our fault. We apologize for the switch and I promise no one here made the decision nor the switch. It was strictly controlled from New York.

And finally, not long after Henry Ford's Model T's started filling the roads, on this date in 1919 Oregon introduced the first state tax on gasoline...and they haven't stopped taxing since. Seems like every time we get a new invention, we get a new tax....and in fact we have been getting taxed since...

This Date in 1913, when the 16th Amendment to the Constitution was ratified by the required 3/4 of the states and became the law of the land. This amendment allowed the Congress to tax the income of Americans. Now, it didn't Require that Congress tax Americans but Congress couldn't resist and by October of that year, President Wilson had signed into law the Revenue Act of 1913 that re-introduced the income tax on Americans.

Recovering

2008-02-22T11:55:00.000-08:00

I'm in hibernation. Yesterday afternoon I tested out the freeways that were in such good condition. I ended up doing about a quarter-mile power slide, fish-tail on the Gene Snyder as I ended up off the road. I saw two other poor souls who traveled the treated road only to find themselves in a deep ravine. Like me, they appeared to be uninjured so I traveled on...back home to Snow White where it was safe and warm. I was lucky that there weren't other cars nearby or any signs that might have otherwise cut me in two. The roadcrews did a great job but, beware, in icy conditions there is no such thing as a safe road.

The Eclipse, The Postal Service and Ice

2008-02-20T19:58:00.000-08:00

First off....here's the way its shaking out. We may get a wee bit of snow early Thursday afternoon but primarily, look for sleet and freezing rain until the evening when it turns to freezing rain. That will be the case in light forms throughout the overnight until the early after daybreak when it turns to all rain. The brine solution will help keep the roads from become icy but not completely. See, the solution is good for preventing snow and ice from bonding to the surface. But it loses some of its effectiveness when you get rain. If it rains hard, then it washes away. Freezing rain does not freeze immediately in the temperatures we will have and the temperatures of the road so it will behave as a liquid and wash some of the solution before freezing thus making the solution somewhat less effective. This initial precip though probably will be relatively light so it will probably remain somewhat worthwhile. Nonetheless, not all roads get the brine and there will likely be icy spots on secondary roads as the night wears on and perhaps even the main roads. I'd still leave work early. The heaviest precip appears to want to happen during the day on Friday when we will receive all rain.

The Eclipse: Lunar eclipses generally don't do much for me. When its in partial form, it looks like the moon in one of its phases and when it's total, it just looks like its been dimmed. The amber like color is due to refraction and scattering of light through the earth's atmosphere, much like you would see at some moonrises or sunsets. The next total eclipse of the moon visible here I believe is in 2010. The picture above was from a previous total eclipse and looks much like what I saw tonight. I do not know why there is and was for me a section in the lower right that appears almost all white. It was supposed to be total as is this photo, yet it doesn't look total to me. Someone, feel free to explain it. Either way, I disagree with the national news celebrity I saw tonight say it was "absolutely spectacular." To me it wasn't absolute nor spectacular.

On This Date In History: President George Washington signed the Postal Service Act on this date in 1792. It established in the Congressional domain the establishment of official postal routes, post offices and such and made it illegal for anyone to open anyone else's mail. Previously, private companies or entrepreneurs had delivered the mail. The Crown had established the position of Postmaster General in 1707 with that person being charged with co-ordinating and improving communications between the colonies. In 1737, 31-year-old Benjamin Franklin became the Colonial Postmaster General until he was fired by the Crown for his subversive activities. In 1775, the Continental Congress named Franklin it's first Postmaster General and he is largely, and perhaps correctly, credited with being the nation's first Postmaster General. But, the nation hadn't even been formed then. A few months following Washington's initial inauguration as the first President, Samuel Osgood took the post beginning September 26, 1789 followed by Timothy Pickering on August 12, 1791 who held the post until Joseph Habersham, beginning February 25, 1795.

So...it may be more correct to say that Osgood was the first Postmaster of the United States or even Pickering since he was the first after the Act was signed. But, the Articles of Confederation of 1781 and then the Constitution of 1787 both established Congress' authority of to establish and regulate postage. Both of those post dated Franklin who only held the post from July 26, 1775 to November 1776. I guess that Franklin had better things to do following the Declaration of Independence, like maybe avoiding being captured by the Redcoats. The job paid $1000 a year but I suppose Ben figured his hide was worth even more than that ample Colonial sum. So, he turned over the duties to his second, Richard Bache, who also happened to be his son-in-law.

So, I'm not so sure its accurate to say that Franklin was the first Postmaster General, though the US Postal Service will make that claim. Franklin was however the first to hold the post to turn a profit for the Crown when he did so in 1760. So perhaps its fitting that Franklin gets the credit for being the father of the post office. Heck, he's probably the only guy who's ever learned how to turn a profit. Maybe we can clone his DNA and put back at the helm.

Green Eggs Benedict? Ice Rink Thursday?

2008-02-19T21:03:00.000-08:00

First things first. This Wednesday business about snow is not much of a big deal. A little snow is about it...less than an inch for the Metro area, probably more in the neighborhood of a half inch. Northern counties will get 1 or 2 inches. Trouble is its probably going to be falling during the morning rush hour. Last week, we had light snow during rush hour before we eventually got around 4 inches. During the rush hour we had less than an inch..but the rush hour took more like two hours. Bottom line: give yourself some extra time but it shouldn't be that bad. Now Thursday is the real story. We start as snow...lets say we get 1-3 inches before we turn to freezing rain. I'm concerned it may be a substantial amount of freezing rain...more than last week. I lost some limbs from my poor old pine tree and can't afford to lose many more. I also like the idea of having heat for the house. Hopefully it won't be that bad but, just beware, Thursday evening and night may get tough...Friday morning may be tough too. Plan to leave work early on Thursday.

On This Date In History: On this date in 1777, Benedict Arnold turned green with envy and it probably led to his becoming one of the most infamous figures in American history. On February 19, 1777 the Continental Congress promoted a bunch of Brigadier Generals to the rank of Major General. These guys were all junior to Benedict Arnold but by making them Major Generals, they all leap-frogged him in rank. The reason was that Congress was trying to even out the number of general officers from each state but Arnold didn't see it that way. He felt snubbed and he wanted to quit and offered his resignation. General George Washington wouldn't accept it and talked his friend out of it. Probably a mistake for the Father of our Country because Arnold remained miffed for several years until he became a turncoat and tried to hand over the American fort at West Point, New York to the enemy.

Now, its not entirely clear that the elevation of the other men to Major General is what caused Arnold to turn traitor but it's probably a pretty safe assumption it played some role. In any event, Arnold becomes a general in the British army and he ends up on the losing side. After the war he went to live in the Mother Country but he wasn't much better received than he would have been in the new United States. Seems the Brits didn't look too kindly on a traitorous scoundrel, even if the scoundrel hailed from the other team. Arnold died in Britain in 1801 as a destitute, largely friendless man.

So...the moral to the story is green with envy doesn't always result in green in the pockets. Keep the ego in check and keep the pride in storage and you'll probably end up fairing better than Benedict Arnold.

Remember the Maine!! (it's more pertinent than you think)

2008-02-15T16:49:00.001-08:00

Look for a pretty good Saturday, though it will be seasonably cool. Sunday we warm to the upper 50's and low 60's. Rain will move in on the warm front in the morning and then we get rain a some thunderstorms later Sunday. The cold front will move through and the mercury will tumble. Wrap around moisture should provide some light snow late Sunday night and throughout the day on Monday we may get flurried to death. Some models want to toss out over an inch of snow over a 30 hour time frame. Shouldn't be that big of a deal but I would plan on giving yourself some extra drive time Monday morning...a little snow can make for big headaches.

On This Date In History: On February 11, 1898, Elizabeth Carter was born in the Oklahoma Territory. She went on to become Elizabeth Carter Symon, my grandmother. Four days later, on this date in the same year, the USS Maine exploded in Havana Harbor in Cuba. So what was the Maine doing in Cuba to begin with?

Well, Cuba was under the rule of Spain at the time and locals were in the midst of a rebellion. American President William McKinley decided it would be a great idea to send one of the nation's first battleships to Havana on a "friendly" visit and to protect American interests. Seems to me this was an early form of gunboat diplomacy. Mysteriously, the Maine exploded.

A certain newspaper man, William Randolph Hearst, was known for sensational headlines and he helped whip up American public opinion by blaring headlines that the Maine was deliberately sabotaged by the Spanish! Why they would do such a thing seems lost on the Americans as they, and their government, jumped to the conclusion. The US Navy had an inquiry that concluded the ship's death was the result of a mine.

In the mid 1970's, a new research effort concluded that the ship probably exploded due to a fire smoldering in the coal bunker. The fire ignited either the ammunition directly or coal dust. But, don't let the truth get in the way of a good war. The US wanted the Spanish out of the Western Hemisphere and it coveted the Spanish controlled Philippines in the Pacific.

War was declared on Spain by Congress. Under-Secretary of the Navy and former New York Governor Teddy Roosevelt resigned his position to lead a group of volunteers that became known as the Rough Riders. Roosevelt gained fame, became McKinley's Vice-President and then ascended to the Presidency upon President McKinley's assassination in Buffalo on Sept 6, 1901. The war with Spain was over before the end 1898 and Cuba became independent and so did the Philippines....sorta. This is where this becomes relevant to today.

See, there were hundreds of thousands of insurgents in the Philippines and the US army had to pacify them. Many suggested that it was a civil war. By the time Teddy Roosevelt comes to power, Senators start urging the President to withdraw from an "endless civil war" in which "hundreds of thousands" of Filipinos had died and "tens of thousands of American soldiers. Some said we had no business there and it wasn't worth the effort. The US pledged to stay the course and allow the Philippines to grow as a democracy. (does this sound familiar)

The Philippines finally had self rule following the second world war and the US military presence came to an end in about 1991 when the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo destroyed the huge Subic Bay US Navy base. The Philippines has remained an important US Allie since WWII as the US has been at loggerheads with the Soviet Union and now China and increasingly Russia.

Here is the point of this story: Many people think that the Iraq situation is reminiscent of Vietnam. I would disagree and suggest that it has very little in common with Vietnam and is much more similar to the Philippines following the Spanish American War. The trouble is that for some reason, the public school system in all states just glosses over from about 1877 until 1929 in the history books. We don't know much about the Guilded Age, The Spanish American War or World War I. Even Korea isn't covered much so...people today remember Vietnam so they grab that out of fat air as a comparison. On the surface, it may seem to be the same but more careful inspection shows that Vietnam and Iraq have very little in common but the Philippines and Iraq are much more amenable for compare/contrast analysis.

I won't make a qualitative assessment of the Philippines situation or current events. But I would encourage you to get some good books about the Spanish American War and the aftermath if you want to find something that holds some similarities to the current situation. History does not repeat itself as its a different time and different place but the parallels in this case are interesting.

Note: Just as a point of reference, the USS Maine was one of the earliest US Battleships. It had a displacement of 6000 tons. In comparison, the Ohio Class of United State Ballistic Missle Nuclear Submarines have a surface displacement of over 16,000 tons and the final group of US Battleships, the Iowa Class, had a 45,000 ton displacement. In other words, the Maine was a toy boat by today's standards.

Guys: Don't Make a Joke Out of Valentine's Day

2008-02-14T12:30:00.001-08:00

Valentine's Day. Quite romantic around here with the snow on the ground and the temperatures warming to the upper 30's and low 40's. You may have heard on another channel a few days ago that Friday/Saturday would be another round of snow. We weren't ever all that bullish, preferring instead to go with the idea of light rain and maybe a little turnover. Well, that's off the board now almost completely. The system rounding the bend isn't going to do so and the front moving through may produce a shower or two but I bet its basically a non-event. We warm nicely on Sunday but rain will be in the picture before we chill down on Monday and get perhaps a snoot full of flurries...but nothing to substantive.

Valentine's Day What's the deal with this? Who invented it? I always figured it was a conspiracy of the greeting card people and chocolate manufacturers to try to boost business in the dark days of winter. Al Capone thought it was a good day to get rid of his competition. But, whatever it is, don't make light of it, guys. Last year, I tried and it flopped. I took Snow White to a family restaurant....one in which patrons stand in line with cafeteria trays. I thought it would be funny. The humor was obviously lost as for the past 365 days the subject has arisen from time to time. Don't be like Bob. Treat the day with great respect and do some really nice things for your Valentine....or you will be reminded of your transgressions for the next 12 months. There are plenty of nice places to eat in town and your efforts will be well rewarded. I have done my best to make up for last year's disaster to Snow White. She deserves all that I can give and I know there are hundreds of left over suitors who would love to do the same, though they are afraid I may order up a thunderbolt in their nether regions if they attempted to do so. Snow White is the grandest of all Valentine's ladies in my book.

The history of the day is, as usual, a bit sketchy. I've heard that it was linked to some pagan fertility festival of days of yore and other tales take it to Geoffrey Chaucer somehow. As with many old traditions emanating from Europe, this one seems to have some tie to the Catholic Church. I don't care to go into it but you can look it up for yourself. I've provided a link to a Wikipedia entry, though that site is not academically reliable. It should provide some answers though and probably create more questions. The only answer I have for you though is to treat the day with the respect that you would treat your loved one(s)!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valentine's_Day

Winter Storm Warning

2008-02-11T09:24:00.000-08:00

I told you they would change the Winter Storm Watch. It's now a Winter Storm Warning for this afternoon through midday Tuesday. It covers the viewing area from Bullitt County northward. All of Southern Indiana is included. The rest of the area except for Hart, Green, Adair and Taylor counties are under a winter weather advisory.

Pretty much the same story as yesterday. We go all snow until around midnight, then sleet then freezing rain until around sunrise followed by a cold rain. Plan on a difficult rush hour this afternoon and particularly for Tuesday morning. Freezing rain on top of snow will be a real mess.

The trick here will be the snow amounts. I had suggested a conservative 2 to 4 inches with locally heavier amounts knowing full well that the models were indicating more. Now, they've even gone heavier. The top one has us in the dark green, which is 4-6 inches. The grey in the western part of the viewing area indicates 6-8 inches. The bottom map has us barely in the grey, which is 6-8 inches and the blues in southern Indiana reflecting 8-12 inches. But....if sleet mixes in, then the amounts will be reduced.

Our air is very dry so the early snow will be a light fluffy snow that may end up showing up as closer to a 15-1 or even 20-1 ratio of liquid conversion to snow. So, for instance, the bottom model indicates .24" of precipitation this afternoon. Normally, you expect about a 10-1 ratio so that would equal 2.4" of snow. But, if we had 20-1, then that would be 4.8" of snow. For now, we're going with 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts. At this point, I don't think that the snow amount differences will be all that consequential. I feel like that, pragmatically, its the ice. If it falls more as sleet, then it won't be so bad. But, there are indications that the freezing rain portion of the event may be broader in time. I had suggested a quarter to a half inch of ice and that is still a distinct possibility. Should that happen...particularly when you get toward a half inch..then power outages become more likely. As mentioned previously, that is the only weather event in which I do not want to be involved. My cats aren't fat enough to keep both me and Snow White warm and you know which of us will win the battle for the cats. It's one of those situations when Nit and Wit suddenly become her cats and not mine.

Stay tuned to see the ultimate outcome. Hopefully, we can just have mainly a nice fluffy snow and avoid the ice, though it seems remote that we will avoid the ice altogether.

Best Shot At Winter Weather This Season

2008-02-10T18:40:00.000-08:00

No history today, no stories of yore or my travels. We've got weather to talk about. First shot at good looking snow potential this season. We were looking for a mix of precipitation for Monday afternoon. Well, its still a mix but its much broader in scale and scope....meaning a bigger mess.

It's rather interesting but its really a similar set up as the past two Tuesdays when we had an area of low pressure moving up from the Southwest almost right over the top of us. Two weeks ago, it resulting in widespread strong winds with an isolated tornado. Last week there were numerous tornadic thunderstorms. The difference this time is that we have cold air in place that will stay there...no big warm up. So this time, we start as snow Monday afternoon...and stay that way for much of the evening. The two maps above are two different computer models idea of what will happen as of Sunday evening. On the top one, the yellow indicates up to 4 inches of snow. The bottom one has a gray slab nosing in over us. That represents six inches. At this time, I'm going with two to four with isolated higher amounts.

Here's the rub though...as the low moves up, the mixed bag begins. Just prior to midnight, we change to sleet. A few hours later we turn to freezing rain. Ice accumulations may be up to 1/2 inch. If there's one type of weather I don't want, its freezing rain. Let's hope the wires and trees hold up. Good news is that we turn to rain at or just after sunrise so ice may not be on long enough to cause too many problems. We get a cold rain for much of Tuesday before it ends Tuesday afternoon, perhaps as a few light, insignificant snow showers.

Bottom line is this. Monday evening rush hour will be difficult. Tuesday morning looks tough too. Plan ahead. As of Sunday evening, there is a Winter Storm Watch for our viewing area from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. I suspect that will be changed.

I'd stay tuned to Newschannel 32 for updates as we get closer to the event. We'll be able to nail down the snow and ice amounts. I'm sure the weather service will also be updating watches or issuing warnings too.