tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-374334352009-11-25T19:51:23.942-05:00Easy to understand analysis of all the major world markets including commodities, stocks, currencies, ETFs and bonds.Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comBlogger1088125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-16516529288784394992009-11-25T17:29:00.003-05:002009-11-25T17:43:37.611-05:00

Today the dollar fell to a new low for the year which is not something I welcome considering I am short the stock market. I was tempted to buy the Euro this morning as a hedge against my short stock position but decided not to initiate any new trades just prior to the holiday. The Euro has broken out of a triangle pattern which is a trade I usually take.Considering that the dollar was down

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-10825486661804147532009-11-23T17:23:00.004-05:002009-11-23T17:33:31.245-05:00

Well, we can now add the NASDAQ to the growing list of markets not making new highs with the Dow and S&P. Today stocks gapped open higher with the dow once again being the strongest of the major indices and making new highs. Historically stocks have rallied around Thanksgiving and maybe this is what we saw today but the growing number of stocks not making new highs with the dow just reinforces my

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-20979646006045180912009-11-21T11:02:00.004-05:002009-11-21T11:09:42.561-05:00

An interesting pattern has been developing over the past few months in the stock market which I'd like to share with you. You'll notice in the above chart of the S&P that there has been a tendency for stocks to sell off towards the end of the month and then rally at the beginning of the month.What I find interesting is that each of the sell offs have been gaining downside momentum. In other words

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-29348865507543164782009-11-19T20:29:00.015-05:002009-11-19T21:19:28.670-05:00

Here are some charts that clearly illustrate why I am bearish on stocks and which groups I feel have been weak. But before we get to the charts I'd like to say that anything can happen in the market and no matter how well things may line up, the unexpected can and does happen which is why I always have my protective stops in the market. Having said that, lets take a look at some charts!Above is

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-12992044059716743652009-11-19T16:52:00.006-05:002009-11-19T17:08:17.323-05:00

As all of you know, I have been bearish on the stock market since last week and today I added to some of my short positions. For now lets just focus on the S&P but in my next post I'll write about some of the groups I like on the short side.Above is a daily chart of the S&P and as you can see the top of the channel appears to have halted this month's rally. Today stocks were down on an increase

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-62941818314347061552009-11-17T17:29:00.003-05:002009-11-17T17:39:00.983-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the S&P and NASDAQ and as you can see we have an inside day that has formed. An inside day occurs when today's high is below yesterday's high and today's low is above yesterday's low. What I like about these days is that they usually trigger a trend day or a large range day.Given my bearish outlook on the market, I'd much rather take a breakout to the downside than to

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-16319698728941975482009-11-16T19:03:00.008-05:002009-11-16T19:17:32.337-05:00

Stocks moved higher today with the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all making new highs for the year. In the above chart of the Dow Jones Industrials you'll notice that the previous rallies were 665 and 689 points. Now we are seeing a rally of more than 700 points. The previous two rallies lasted exactly 13 days. The current rally is in its 10th day.I still feel that the market is vulnerable to a sell off

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-33352099968465188702009-11-12T22:36:00.005-05:002009-11-12T22:46:47.367-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the ETF for crude oil symbol USO. You'll notice that USO has gotten to the top of its rising channel and is now beginning to roll over. The MACD is clearly in sell mode and we are starting to see volume increase on the down days.If you look at the seasonal chart for crude oil, you'll quickly see that the two most bearish months of the year are November and December.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-47944258330991853882009-11-12T20:31:00.004-05:002009-11-12T20:48:06.577-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the U.S. Dollar and in the lower pane is the RSI indicator. Notice we are seeing multiple bullish divergences in the oscillator. On its own a divergence it simply a red flag or warning which is why I never trade off of just divergences, I need to combine it with something else. In the above chart I drew a trendline which hasn't been broken since this bear market began.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-80423596124335840082009-11-12T18:21:00.008-05:002009-11-12T19:27:32.434-05:00

On Wednesday we saw all 3 major indices break to a new swing high with the Dow Jones Industrials being the strongest of the three. When we take a closer look at what is really going on, I think you might agree with me that yesterday's breakout to new highs was a false move and that the market is about to head south.Above we have a chart of the Banks, Homebuilders and Brokers. Notice how all 3 of

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-50372109328622680492009-11-07T01:29:00.003-05:002009-11-07T02:12:55.640-05:00

One common problem that I think many traders have is the fear of missing out. I know this is a problem because this is something that I myself have learned to deal with over the years and even now I still jump the gun because I fear that I will miss out on a potential move in the market.One way to overcome the fear of missing out is to have a well thought out trading plan with specific rules for

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-56545268043651821822009-11-03T19:07:00.003-05:002009-11-03T19:11:25.388-05:00

Even though the dollar was up today, gold surged higher based on news that the Reserve Bank of India bought 200 tons of gold from the IMF for $6.7 billion. Today gold made a new record high but silver has yet to break high.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-50518038557223858822009-11-02T19:00:00.007-05:002009-11-02T19:14:41.567-05:00

A few of you have been writing in asking me what my opinion is on crude oil so I decided to make this post so that you can see exactly what I am thinking (if that means anything to anyone).Above is a daily chart of USO which is the ETF for crude oil. As you know I have been long this market based on the breakout of the symmetrical triangle formation which I posted here on this blog well before

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-79889449232352554232009-10-30T18:15:00.003-05:002009-10-30T18:24:56.178-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the ETF for the Euro, symbol FXE. Last week when the Euro pushed up to new highs there was a MACD bearish divergence that developed. Now it appears that a major trendline is about to be broken. In my opinion if this currency can put in one more close below the trendline, I think that would confirm a high is in place and that the Euro should now begin some kind of sell

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-70853705057760314182009-10-30T17:48:00.002-05:002009-10-30T17:58:08.270-05:00

The stock market had a rough week with the S&P down 4.18% from last Friday's close and closing the month at a loss. In the above chart you'll notice the increase in volume. This is the largest weekly volume we've seen in 22 weeks. The major trendline which began last March was broken as well.As you know I've been bearish on the market as of last week based on the weakness I was seeing in the

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-23795989656975412012009-10-28T18:37:00.005-05:002009-10-28T18:46:54.932-05:00

I'm keeping an eye on the U.S. Dollar because I see some interesting technical signals coming into play. Notice in the above chart that there is a MACD bullish divergence that took place last week when the dollar made new lows. There is also a very important trendline that this currency is now about to test. I think if we see 2 or 3 closes above the trendline that would confirm that a bottom has

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-38310551548445618822009-10-28T18:01:00.002-05:002009-10-28T18:07:51.377-05:00

Gold has been selling off over the past few trading sessions and is rapidly approaching a very significant level. If you look at the above chart of GLD you'll notice the psychological $100 level was resistance last month and may now act as support.I personally don't think the $100 level will hold because silver has been very weak and it may pull down gold even further. We'll see how things unfold.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-74618028799136744312009-10-28T17:38:00.004-05:002009-10-28T17:48:38.390-05:00

If you've been reading my blog over the past few days you would know that I've been leaning towards the bearish side of the market. Just to summarize what I was seeing that made me become cautious/bearish was the weakness in the homebuilders, banks and small cap stocks,Today we saw stocks get hammered with just about all the indices in the red. In the above daily chart you'll notice that the

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-13514268015871196452009-10-28T16:37:00.004-05:002009-10-28T16:46:45.412-05:00

Yesterday I wrote about the weakness I was seeing in the small cap stocks and today we saw these stocks lead the stock market lower. The Russell 2000 index ($RUT) was down 3.51% today and was clearly the weakest when compared to the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ.The Russell 2000 index confirmed the double top formation today by breaking below support. The downside objective for this index is the 529 area.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-67486216014995181192009-10-28T12:01:00.003-05:002009-10-28T12:07:46.824-05:00

A few days ago I posted about the bearish divergence I was seeing in the homebuilders index and that it could spell trouble for the market. Well today we are seeing the homebuilders along with the banks break through support. You can read that original post by clicking here. If time permits, I'll try to post more charts regarding the S&P, small caps and banks later tonight.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-17591021173020530522009-10-28T10:11:00.007-05:002009-10-28T10:23:39.916-05:00

On October 15th, I posted about a very significant level I was watching in the bond market for TLT. If you recall I was focused on the 93.50 area which I considered to be a major support zone and as you can see in the above chart the bond market has rallied off of this level. The actual low came in at 93.55 on Tuesday.If any of you bought the bonds earlier this week, I would use the rising

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-80881082773884971202009-10-27T20:23:00.004-05:002009-10-27T20:40:25.461-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the Russell 2000 small cap index ($RUT) and in the lower pane is a ratio chart that compares the small cap index to the S&P500. What we are seeing now is a classic double top formation that has developed in the small cap index. Today this index posted its first close below a very significant trendline which began back in March. I usually like to see 2 or 3 closes below a

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-88891837455170153902009-10-26T17:41:00.004-05:002009-10-27T20:00:13.771-05:00

USO has had a nice rally since last month and is now testing its breakout level. The $40 level was resistance back in June and now should act as support if this market is really as strong as it appears. Keep in mind there is a very dominant bearish seasonal that usually kicks in around this time of year so it will be interesting to see if USO holds this level.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-33480479622519835212009-10-25T21:49:00.004-05:002009-10-25T22:03:33.279-05:00

In my previous post I pointed out that some of the banks were beginning to show signs of weakness, well we're also seeing that take place in the housing index. Above is a daily chart of the homebuilding index (HGX) and in the lower pane is the S&P500. You'll notice since July both markets correlated perfectly making highs and lows together up until mid September where we are seeing an interesting

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-10390290250049238662009-10-25T21:32:00.005-05:002009-10-25T21:41:49.130-05:00

I'd like to share with all of you a market I'll be watching for a potential trade on the short side. Above is a daily chart of the ETF for the Regional Banking Index (KRE) and in the lower pane is the S&P500. Notice the symmetrical triangle that KRE has formed over the past 3 months. When I see this kind of formation I'm always looking to trade with the breakout.One thing that I find very

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0