tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-374334352008-08-28T17:59:57.092-05:00Analysis of STOCKS, COMMODITIES, FOREX and market trends. This report is updated daily with detailed charts and commentary to assist the online trader.Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comBlogger816125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-81269405697849047752008-08-19T16:02:00.002-05:002008-08-19T16:10:47.384-05:00

Last week I wrote about how the financials were weak and that there was a head and shoulders top forming in the S&P on the 60 minute chart. If you look at the above chart you'll see that the neckline has been broken and it appears that stocks are heading lower to my downside target of 1242 for the SPX.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-42867208812119668732008-08-17T21:13:00.002-05:002008-08-17T21:15:54.653-05:00

It's not often we see a move like we are seeing right now in the Australian Dollar. This currency has completely fallen apart in just a few weeks!

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-60578865400893321022008-08-17T21:03:00.004-05:002008-08-17T21:09:12.083-05:00

The British Pound along with the other major foreign currencies have sold off sharply over the past few weeks. The Pound has just taken out a significant long-term trendline which began back in the summer of 2001. .

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-11640699639028091902008-08-17T20:49:00.002-05:002008-08-17T20:56:05.146-05:00

I just wanted to post the above weekly chart of the CRB index so that you can appreciate how much this index has sold off. The CRB is currently at the 50% retracement level of the 2007 to 2008 advance. In just 6 weeks the CRB has retraced half of an 18 month rally!

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-86985436073353531732008-08-14T20:50:00.003-05:002008-08-14T21:02:43.331-05:00

Lately I've been writing about how the NASDAQ has been much stronger than the Dow and S&P and today's chart is a great example of that. You'll notice that the NASDAQ made a new high for the month today but not the S&P and Dow. If you look at the ratio line which compares the NASDAQ to the S&P, you'll see that it has broken out and appears to be very strong. Am I bullish on stocks? Well I

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-46891881339511578942008-08-11T19:23:00.003-05:002008-08-11T19:29:09.337-05:00

With Commodity prices collapsing it's no wonder that the Australian and Canadian Dollar are both selling off as both currencies are heavily influenced by oil and gold. We've all heard the saying that the market takes the escalator up and the elevator down, well in the above chart this is exactly what happened. In just 3 weeks the Australian Dollar gave back 5 months worth of gains!

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-32980139582396986982008-08-11T19:10:00.003-05:002008-08-11T19:15:25.875-05:00

Crude Oil has been falling rapidly over the past few weeks and is now testing a significant trendline on the weekly chart. It will be interesting to see if this support line can hold. I personally would love to see oil prices collapse even further so that I won't get heartburn anymore every time I visit the gas station!

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-74670085039776224202008-08-11T18:27:00.002-05:002008-08-11T18:34:44.318-05:00

I've been writing lately about the strength I've been seeing in the NASDAQ compared to the Dow and S&P. In the chart above of the NASDAQ you'll notice in the lower panel a ratio line of the NASDAQ vs the S&P. A rising ratio line means the NASDAQ is outperforming the S&P500. What I find interesting is that this ratio line is at its highest level that we've seen over the past year. If the

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-86787276299293569342008-08-11T18:18:00.002-05:002008-08-11T18:22:23.774-05:00

Today gold sold off a whopping 41 dollars and closed below a key support level. Today's range was one of the largest daily ranges we've seen in gold for quite some time. If gold does bounce from here, watch for support (850) to turn into resistance.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-81841352664821896952008-08-08T21:58:00.004-05:002008-08-08T22:03:41.569-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the NASDAQ, S&P and Dow Jones Industials. All 3 indices are trending higher with the NASDAQ leading the way. In my opinion the Dow hasn't cleared resistance as of yet and the S&P is testing its 50 day moving average. Only the NASDAQ has posted a solid close through its 50 day moving average. In order for this up move to continue I think we need to see the financials

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-13343888379381379982008-08-08T21:49:00.003-05:002008-08-08T22:06:03.689-05:00

It's pretty obvious now that there is a double top in the Euro.. I was actually long the Euro looking for this currency to break higher 3 weeks ago but when I saw that resistance held I exited my long position at a small loss..Whew! I marked off on the chart my downside objective for the Euro based on the double top formation. I'm looking for this currency to trade down to the 146 area.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-76216504362060972662008-08-08T21:43:00.003-05:002008-08-08T21:46:44.149-05:00

I've been watching the Canadian Dollar very closely over the past month because I felt a large move was about to take place due to the contraction in volatility. As you can see this forecast turned out to be right on the money as the C-Dollar had a massive sell off along with the Australian dollar this past week.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-31236558239125216212008-08-07T20:50:00.006-05:002008-08-07T20:55:43.335-05:00

The Dow Jones Industrials was down sharply today on good volume after testing a major resistance level yesterday at the 11700 area. I think in order for the bulls to take control of this market the dow would have to post a close above the 11700 band of resistance. Until then the trend for the Dow Jones Industrials remains down.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-20068015965238590272008-08-04T22:08:00.003-05:002008-08-04T23:00:41.797-05:00

The other day I bought oil as it appeared to have had a change of sentiment at a key support level but as you can see oil has gone lower once again. Oil seems to be dragging down the entire commodity complex including gold and some commodity related market ETFs such as EWC, EWZ and EWA. At the moment I have no position in gold or oil and will remain on the sidelines until I see another low

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-53393965125813566012008-08-04T11:17:00.004-05:002008-08-04T11:27:48.875-05:00

I've been bullish on gold since June which is when I bought GLD. I was pleased to see how nicely gold rallied from late June going into mid July but things have certainly changed since then. I had a very nice open profit in gold but did not see the down move that was coming. As a result I have given back all of my open profits and am now out of the gold market. The inverted head and shoulders

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-51525217618358624912008-08-04T11:00:00.004-05:002008-08-04T11:09:24.408-05:00

I've been watching the Canadian Dollar closely over the last several weeks because of the lengthy consolidation that has taken place. Usually such sideways price action precedes a trending move. Above is a weekly chart of the Canadian dollar and you'll notice in the lower panel the very low ADX reading. Many times when a market moves sideways and the ADX goes below 15, a major trend is about

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-25320350737039216902008-07-31T00:50:00.004-05:002008-07-31T01:00:07.359-05:00

Above is a daily candlestick chart of crude oil and as you can see oil prices have fallen sharply over the last month. What I find interesting is that oil has formed a bullish engulfing pattern at a key support area. In my opinion this is quite bullish for oil. Below is a longer term view of crude oil which puts things in perspective as far as I am concerned. You'll notice how the 110 moving

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-2232881331569085802008-07-24T16:54:00.004-05:002008-07-30T06:32:34.593-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrials. You'll notice yesterday that the dow failed at a significant level of resistance which consists of the one third Fibonacci retracement level and the lows from last January and March. This market is very difficult to trade at the moment, at least for me it is. You'll recall I was looking for a bottom in the stock market and it appears that

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-21710922166825393092008-07-20T19:09:00.007-05:002008-07-20T19:22:38.835-05:00

Above is a weekly candlestick chart of the S&P500 (SPY). You'll notice the bullish hammer formation that has formed after taking out major support. Notice also how the S&P500 has made lower highs each week for the last 8 weeks which in my opinion is an oversold market. I like the fact that we are seeing big volume over the last 2 weeks which can mean a washout and a possible buying opportunity

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-90042152467261615262008-07-15T19:31:00.011-05:002008-07-15T19:47:32.664-05:00

The stock market may be heading south but the biotechs are heading north making a new year high today for the XBI index. Stocks such as AMGN, CELG, GENZ, MYGN, OSIP are all rapidly moving higher.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-14110718904417283062008-07-15T17:54:00.003-05:002008-07-15T17:57:06.277-05:00

Today the Euro tested major resistance but was unable to push through. I've been bullish on the Euro and actually bought this currency a few weeks ago. I think we will see new highs for the Euro and Swiss. Patience!

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-91368989391797847072008-07-15T17:36:00.007-05:002008-07-15T17:48:40.754-05:00

Today oil priced had their largest drop since the gulf war. As a result the oil stocks sold off as well triggering my protective stop to get hit in XLE. If you recall I bought XLE yesterday and took the trade off today at a loss. I don't hang around very long if things aren't working out in my favor. Looking at the above chart you'll notice that XLE didn't make new highs with oil. I was aware

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-66457226212262780142008-07-14T22:34:00.005-05:002008-07-14T22:51:50.749-05:00

Does the above heading sound familiar? Keep an eye on this group of stocks was a post I did on May 20th which suggested that we watch the mortgage finance stocks because a large trending move to the downside was about to unfold and that is exactly what has happened. The purpose of this post is not to brag about me making a good call (I'll be the first to admit the market has humbled me many

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-18131589348825444712008-07-14T22:26:00.005-05:002008-07-14T22:58:24.796-05:00

As you know I've been short DIA for about a 7 weeks. I just wanted to update where my protective stop is which is right above last week's high. I also feel there is a buying opportunity in the very near future and I have a list of ETFs and groups that I feel might be worth buying. I'll share this list with all of you if and when the market firms up a bit but for now I'm riding this downtrend.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-65863829415277145912008-07-14T21:14:00.003-05:002008-07-14T21:18:12.227-05:00

Today I bought XLE pretty much near the highs of the day. My stop is below last week's low so the risk on this trade is very very small. The stochastics have crossed upward indicating a buy signal is in place. Now I'll just sit back and let the market do what it's going to do. No thinking, just trade the setups, place your protective stops and walk away!

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com