North Jersey Weather Outlook

I'm getting sick of winter....

2009-04-21T19:11:00.000-07:00

Well oddly enough yesterday was very cold by late April standards and a wintry mix fell in the higher elevations of New Jersey most of the day with nothing more than a trace. This makes the snow season from Oct 27th- April 20th, but it's not over :(

As I look outside now the ground is white, but it's hail from a T-Storm that just passed. And hail IS NOT wintry precipitation, never was and never will be. Come Wednesday into Thursday cold air will move into the area and the GFS suggests snow accumulation!??? Yes, if this is right, just 20 hours from now, areas 1,000 feet and higher in NJ could get 1-3 inches of snow. Oddly enough the next day will get near 70 followed by 80's the next :0

If winter type precipitation ends up falling in May this year then I will begin a rampage on the whole global warming scam. Because it's not supposed to snow 7 months out of the year in Jersey, sorry, it doesn't happen "with all this warming :/"

Where the heck is spring?

2009-04-15T16:20:00.000-07:00

Usually by this time of the year the grass is being cut, the trees are full of buds, rain is heavy, and warm days come often. That statment leaves most of us saying "Well why has it been freezing cold and snowy?" First off I want to mention that April is now running 3.77 degrees below the average for the month, that means we need some serious warmth to raise that number. Things should start to get warmer now and hopefully we have had our last snow and our last freeze.

Another problem is the lack of precipiation, so far our area has only picked up 0.77" inches of rain in April and only 5.14" inches all year! Last year at this time we had 15.22" inches already which makes us over 10" inches below last year! Not a good sign, and one I don't believe will be fixed any time soon.

In my previous blog I talked about how we would experience a hot dry summer, but I'm starting to think twice about that. Our sun is going through a time of very low activity and it is going to affect summer temperatures. I'm still calling for a dry summer but now I think that summer may be slighty below average temperature wise, with a shortened season, meaning fall will be quick to move in with a leaf drop completed before Halloween. That also has something to do with a dry season.

Let's see what happens. Now that winter is over my blog entries will start to become very scattered over time but keep checking back for possible trends in the 09-10 winter season? :0 yeah.... we got awhile

Cold and Snowy Pattern (IN APRIL?)

2009-04-04T08:20:00.000-07:00

I didn't think I would be blogging about the prospects for snow until November of this year but here I am doing it again. Winter, yes winter, is making a powerful come back (by April standards) and that means freezing temperatures and yes, snow. Right now as I speak the winds outside are gusting to 35-40 mph and at 5:30 this morning a snow shower came through my town with no accumulation. It's actually normal for April, but if I see this kind of thing in May then we are in trouble...

This is winter come back #1, and it's short lived. By Sunday and Monday conditions will improve and it will feel as if spring is on! But that's only an illusion, a "April Fools" of sorts until Tuesday comes. A storm system will ride right over the Phily-NYC area and with cold air pouring in behind the system it could mean snow. This type of track is favorable for higher elevation snow in New Jersey and this a carbon copy of the October 28th snowstorm which dumped over a foot of snow in some places of Morris and Sussex counties. Check out the GFS and EURO:

By looking at these models it looks like nothing more than flurries, but unfortunately the models are having all kinds of problems and most likely will not catch on to any major snow event because it's a complicated situation. As sad as it sounds, I don't know and nobody will know whats going to happen until it's already underway. One thing is for sure though, it's going to be COLD by April standards next week, just check out what the EURO is showing: (Notice how out of place that cold air is?) You gotta get into the arctic circle to find similar thickness values!

Let's see what happens with the models over the weekend, either way, it's going to be interesting.

Drought it is? Summer outlook I

2009-03-28T07:25:00.000-07:00

With all operational models showing that it should be raining the nearest drop is hundreds of miles away and I fear this is going to be a trend for the entire spring time. Compared to most places in the world, we live in a "rain forest" if one could call it that. We need a lot of rain to support the abundant life that roam our forests, or is our forests. Actually 40" inches each year is typically amount we need to receive, but so far this year we have 3.84" with the snow melted down. Last year by the end of March we picked up 12.38" inches of liquid with snow melted down as well. We are in trouble if our "April showers" don't become "April downpours" and give us a half a foot of rain and more, which is unlikely, but possible.

Our rivers and streams which froze over completely during the coldest January in three decades did not give a clear indication with this problem. During the fall the state drained Lake Hopatcong by five feet for regular maintenance and now have closed up the dam to try and refill the lake by the summer vacation season. The problem is only .11" inches of liquid has fallen since that and the lake has only risen by a few inches. Without this lake many other lakes and rivers suffer the loss because Lake Hopatcong is the main feeder. I went to fish the Musconetcong and Big Flat Brook the other day, the only problem was both rivers should be 1-2 feet higher this time of the year. Usually the rivers are RAGING this time of the year and overflowing, but they look more like it's the middle of a hot dry August.

Now it's not "global warming" why we are not getting precipitation, in fact this happen every time a weak La Nina begins to dissipate. And according the past records it will continue till next winter when a possible weak El Nino will most likely form, and those winters are fun. People like to judge winters by how much snow they get, and most global warming believers use snowfall to prove their point. These people typically have a lack of education in the topic and just go by what they hear from Al Gore and our president. This year New York and the areas around it had a COLD winter, one of the coldest January's on record, but still snowfall was only at to slightly below average. It doesn't really matter how cold it is, but rather upper air features, oscillation patterns, availability of moisture, solar radiation, snow cover, blocking, ocean currents, and I can go on all day, but you get the point.

This drought is going to happen, unless some spectacular super storm rides up the coast bringing us record rains. And in that case we are most likely still going to see a lack rain after putting us back into drought for the summer season. I am expecting water restrictions in coming weeks as we realize that rain is going to be in short supply for most of the year. So yes summer is going to be dry, and with dry comes hot. Usually in Northwest Jersey we hit 90 or above only 3 or 4 times each summer but I can see a time in June and July where it lasts for a week or better of dry heat. I'm sure Al Gore is going to enjoy hearing about the heat over the east and how people are suffering from heat stroke, typically he wants that stuff to happen so he can put it in his PowerPoint. Of course he will never mention the coldest January in 3 decades from New York to Chicago, that would ruin his "picture perfect hot planet".

This is only Summer Outlook One, and general overview of a dry and hot summer to start, with some moderation as time goes on. I still want more time to read up on the topic and prepare a month by month forecast, then we can see how wrong I was. That sound good?

P.S. I always had a saying that "one extreme leads to another extreme thats opposite of it", and perhaps a Brutally Cold January means a Very hot July? It will be interesting to see...

Let's recap winter 08-09

2009-03-21T08:41:00.000-07:00

October 2008:

Well it all started in October believe it or not with our first frost on the 7th and our first hard freeze on the 20th. Then a week later on the 27th rain showers started to change over to snow which fell during the night time hours putting down just a coating. Next thing we know the temperature fell below freezing most of the day putting down 6" inches of snow in Netcong and 14" at High Point, only the higher elevations got anything measureable. If that wasn't bad enough some snow squalls on the 29th put down another 1" inch and the ground on Halloween was covered in snow at my house! We will use my town since it's right in the middle of the area I focus on.

Netcong:

Actual High: 58.1 (-4.7 degrees)
Actual Low: 39.9 (+1.9 degrees)
Month Temp: -1.4 below average
Days of snow: 3
Days of snow cover: 5
Amount of snow: 6.05"
***15 seperate records broken in Netcong

November 2008:

November was lame compared to October, not too much to talk about other than it was colder than average.

Netcong:

Actual High: 46.0 (-5.9)
Actual Low: 33.3 (+2.3)
Month Temp: -1.8 below average
Days of snow: 4
Days of snow cover: 1
Amount of snow: Trace
Days below freezing: 4
***2 records broken in Netcong

December 2008:

December was an interesting month that brought 3.16 inches of rainfall, 13.8 inches of snow, and 0.30 inches of ice!

Netcong:

Actual High: 38.2 (-2.8)
Actual Low: 23.7 (+1.7)
Month Temp: -0.5 below average
Days of snow: 11
Days of snow cover: 15
Amount of snow: 13.8"
Amount of ice: 0.3
Days below freezing: 10

January 2009:

This January was among one of the coldest on record and the only precipitation that fell was in the form of snow or ice. The musconetcong river near my house froze solid, a first for me. Parts of the area broke several records for all time cold with temperatures in Walpack NJ nearing -20 degrees.

Netcong:

Actual High: 27.3 (-8.6)
Actual Low: 13.7 (-3.3)
Month Temperature: -5.9 below average
Days of snow: 15
Days of snow cover: 29
Amount of snow: 12.7"
Days below freezing: 24!

February:

Record dry month and the only month of the "winter season" that was above average temperature wise. This can be because of the lack of snow cover.

Netcong:

Actual High: 38.7 (-1.2)
Actual Low: 20.8 (+2.8)
Month Temp: +0.8 above average
Days of snow: 6
Days of snow cover: 15
Amount of snow: 5.25
***Record driest month

March:

March is not over yet so it's difficult to give a good overview. I would have to say that it's probably right on average thus far except for a lack of precipitation, but we have had a surplus of snow. Because of lack complete data set so far temperature will not be included yet.

Netcong:

Days of snow: 4
Days of snow cover: 7
Amount of snow: 11.7
Days below freezing: 3

Overview 08-09:

The snowfall for the area ranges between 40"-55" which is about average in the lower elevations but the higher elevations usually get a little more and that is still totally possible. In fact the areas around 1,000+ average 1.2 inches of snow in April, and it's looking like that may happen. If you live below 1,000 in Jersey then it may be done for you, but some areas still are likely to keep getting the snow. (And just yesterday March 20th West Orange got 2 inches of snow!) It has been a dry winter though and the rivers and Lakes are very low, typically they are over flowing this time of the year. If April doesn't bring it's "showers" then I fear a drought will persist over the summer which is typical in weak La Nina years. I will use this information to start working on my summer forecast, so check back for that in a few weeks!

Netcong:

Days of snow: 42
Days of snow cover: 72
Amount of snow: 49.5"
Days below freezing: 48
Temp Deficit: -1.35 below average

Winter was much colder than average and snowfall was at to slightly below average (so far)

What to do?

2009-03-20T20:13:00.000-07:00

Here is an update on the Morris Canal situation. This is what I received from an email I sent out:

"The town of Stanhope drained it to inspect the culvert under the pavement which runs past the firehouse. They had a sinkhole in front of the firehouse last year which concerns them in not being able to get firetruck out of the firehouse. Right now they are looking for funding to remove silt from basin (HPO approvals are in place as well as Land Use permits.) The section of the canal basin behind the post office needed an archeologist on site to clean out (will probably be cost prohibitive). He can contact Stanhope administrator for more info"

Now what? This could go on for months or even years trying to get funding in a state that is neck deep into debt. Environmentalist groups in NJ should know about the problem, perhaps it could help speed up the process. More updates as time goes on...

Say it ain't so?

2009-03-17T07:27:00.001-07:00

This is off the 06z model run this morning. Now it's for the 29th of March and while the chances are elevated for a snowstorm at the end of the month it's still to far out to make a decision of any kind. By this time the NJ ski/boarding season will have ended so if the storm does in fact happen it would have been too late. Now some people would say "Hey, you said we were gunna get a storm and you were wrong!". I'm not saying that AT ALL, all I am saying is that the model output shows a storm, and that's all I can say at this point.

Sigh

2009-03-13T05:22:00.000-07:00

Morris Canal Update:

I called that number I was giving from Environmental Protection and it was the hot line for restoring industrial sites and removal of storage tanks. Clearly not what I wanted, and this tells me that the guy I talked to last night wasn't listening to me and just said "YES your right" to keep me temporarily satisfied. I will send out a few more emails to the parks and if no progress happens than I will start to contact the environmentalist groups of New Jersey. This shouldn't be this difficult, should it?

Interested in global warming?

2009-03-12T19:46:00.000-07:00

If you could, and have the time (at least 15 minutes) please read over my global warming paper and give me some suggestions, criticism, edits, and etc. If you could just comment at the bottom of the paper and speak the truth, I can handle it! Thanks everyone, I look forward to seeing what you think.

http://globullwarming.blogspot.com/

An update on the Morris Canal

2009-03-12T19:04:00.000-07:00

If you have read my previous blog this is just an update. I have emailed the Canal Society of NJ in regards to the problem and I just finished a phone call to environmental protection and they are now aware of the problem. Environmental gave me a phone number to call tomorrow morning and I will explain the issue further to a higher power. The man I talked with did agree with me 100% and said that it is a major issue that needs to be dealt with. I have a feeling that the issue will be resolved very soon, I hope so.

P.S. If we do succeed in our goal perhaps the state should restock the canal with aquatic life to give it a little head start? This ofcourse is a whole another issue that should be considered. More updates tomorrow after I make the phone call.

Old Morris Canal In trouble?

2009-03-10T17:30:00.000-07:00

New Jersey is one of the oldest states in the country and is very rich in historical sites. One of those historical sites is the Morris Canal which cuts through my very town. As a kid, right up until last year I would always go fishing in the canal and would catch MONSTER FISH. Just check out some of these pictures (Yes I'm in a few).

Who would ever have thought the fish and turtles in this little body of water could get so big? I have even caught turtles that were SO BIG they couldn't fit in my big net. The canal had Walleye, Channel Cats, Albino Cats, Bullheads, Brown Trout, Rainbow Trout, Brook Trout, Large Mouth Bass, Small Mouth Bass, Rock Bass, Crappy, Bluegill, Turtles, Frogs, Eels, Perch, Pickerel, Sucker Fish, and even an occasional Stripped Bass would make it's way in from Lake Hopatcong. And you may think I might not be completely honest about all these fish living in a canal this small, but I have at least caught one or more of the above in that canal.

When ever you would go fishing in the canal the most popular bait was either dead fish or chicken liver and you would hook a catfish one after the other! Also most of the catfish ranged from 1-2 feet long and as seen in the photos above one catfish was 31" inches long! Now here is the bad news. Last spring the canal was drained completely of it's water losing all the aquatic life that once thrived in it. I did call the town of Stanhope several times and I was told it was drained for "maintenance" and once it was cleaned it will be refilled with water. It's been almost a year and I think I have been very patient with the issue. The canal has neither been cleaned or filled back in with water and it's nothing more than "muck hole with loads of trash in it". See for yourself:

It's a different sight to see than in the previous set of photos. This time void of life the "Morris Muck Hole" now looks industrial sludge, an upsetting reality. I am going to bring this to the attention of the Hopatcong State Park officials and others, since I will be linking to this blog entry in my emails I ask all of my regular blog readers to do me a favor by commenting on this entry and let me and others know that we want the canal back! It's not only an environmental issue but an issue in preserving historical sites in our state. The wildlife that once thrived here will return in time but first we need to A) Clean up the trash ASAP then let the water flow once again or B) Fill it back in ASAP!

This issue can not be resolved without your help and support, so together let's tell the state that the Morris Canal in Stanhope NJ needs to have water flowing through it once again! Thanks guys/gals we can do it! :)

Just showing off

2009-03-10T16:34:00.001-07:00

Well, I just uploaded the pictures from my camera that I took during the last big snow storm I got here Netcong. For those of you who got ripped off I'm very sorry for making you extremely jealous.

Deep snow then T-Storms?

2009-03-09T17:42:00.000-07:00

Just one week ago it was 3 degrees and a foot of fresh snow had fallen here in my hometown of Netcong NJ. And early this morning thunder storms rolled on through waking me up in the wee hours of the morning. I love March, it's so unpredictable. (Check out the radar below, my town is right at the point of the arrow)

Friday the 13th, again?

2009-03-07T07:16:00.000-08:00

Yes, this is the second Friday the 13th in two months and just like the last the long range shows our next potential snowstorm. Remember now, the main axis of the snow has been shifting east all year long so if anything comes it has a good chance of tracking in a favorable zone. This was my forecast over a month ago:

This system is still 168 hours on the models so it's very unpredictable at this point. The best we can do for now is sit back and wait, or get outside because it's beatiful out there! Beware the ides of March, it always has tricks up it's sleeves.

What a storm, or was it?

2009-03-02T15:46:00.000-08:00

Well, the storm has passed by and my final two day measurement is 11.7" inches of extremely fluffy high ratio snow. Now If I drive just 10 minutes away into Sparta they only received about 5 inches and Mountain Creek got ripped off badly with only a few inches. If I also drive just 15 minutes east of my town (Netcong) then once again we get down to just 5-6 inches of the white stuff. Now as you get toward the coast, reports of around a foot could be found. Now How did this happen?

When I woke up late last night I looked out my window and saw nothing but white. I checked the radar on the computer and noticed a very narrow and intense band of snow reaching from Hackettstown to Netcong to West Milford into New York state. During this band of snow 5 inches accumulated within 45 minutes till it fell apart. Of course the band lasted for over two hours but it's most intense rate was 6.5 inches per hour! Classic Nor' Easter banding, check it out: (Click for bigger image)

Well, now that northwest Jersey has gotten 40"- 55" inches of snow (49.5" in Netcong) it's time to look at my forecasted season totals I post in October and see how much more we need.

Looks pretty darn close if you ask me. I think the coastal locations are pretty much done with accumulating snowfall for the season but north and west is most likely not done just yet. While skiing and boarding is typically over at the end of March in north Jersey the snow season lasts into mid-April, and snow in April is actually common. I've even seen snow at late at May 8th. The season is not done yet, but it's getting very close.

I'm going to leave you with a few pictures of my backyard, and remember winter is not over yet.

Snow Map, March comes like a lion!

2009-02-28T08:19:00.000-08:00

Wow, GFS went to heavy high snow ratios: (That's a good thing!)

Snow map: (May need some adjustment)

Powerful storm will slam east coast!

2009-02-28T07:39:00.000-08:00

Just remember that yes, a powerful storm is coming up the coast, that is for certain. What we really want to know is who is getting what. That's the million dollar question, so let's look at what we got.

First up is the atmospheric sounding for 06z on Monday, this will tell us what kind of precipitation we will get. Looking at the model below all I can say is wow, it's most certainly snow, and very heavy at that. If you live in Northwest Jersey it's an all snow event with absolutely no chance for rain, freezing rain, and sleet. A first in some time.

Now that we determined what type of precipitation will fall, let's look at the models. First up is heavy weight champion NCEP's GFS: (Clearly showing the bulk going off the coast)

Yeah, I didn't like the GFS how about the NAM: (It's got the moisture but has it going off to sea, but is having trouble where to put the high pressure off to the north west, which is typical)

The question now is are any NCEP models showing a big snowstorm for Northwest Jersey, or North Jersey as a whole? Take a look at the NGM: (Not the most reliable model but it does show 12+ for the NJ ski resorts)

Let's take a look at the EURO and Canadian models: (Both tracking the low closer. Big snow?)

Now, I will post a snow map after the 12z models come out. I have a feeling the storm is going to track further west with high ratio snows for the higher elevations of northwest Jersey. It's going to be in the teens, windy, and with heavy snow. Perhaps blizzard conditions, or I could be completely wrong, but I don't think so. Of course a shift just 30 miles either direction could mean all the difference.

Could it be?

2009-02-27T20:24:00.001-08:00

What a surprise, the model is now tracking a low up the coast with a negative tilted trough. If this continues on the 06z runs in the morning then I will have to draw the 10"-15" line right over north Jersey. Note**(IF THIS TREND ON THE MODELS CONTINUES)**

It's going to be a sleepless 6 hours for me because I really think this storm has "potential", snowmap, models, soundings, and etc will be posted tomorrow morning. Check back!

It's coming!?

It's gunna snow....

2009-02-27T16:19:00.000-08:00

It's most definitely going to snow, from Florida to Maine! What? Yes it is, as of right now this storm could go down in the books as one to remember but something still seems fishy about it. Joe Bastardi from accuweather.com says that up to a foot could fall across the area. I personally don't see what he is seeing, I want to take a look at the models in the morning at 06z and then I will post a snowmap. I will be waking up early because I am getting very excited.

What's it going to be?

No teams?

2009-02-26T15:56:00.000-08:00

Well usually when a storm event nears I make up two to three teams of the weather models and we try to see which is correct, as of 18z on Thursday this is what each model is saying, and not one agrees with the other:

UKMET- Storm going off coast maybe a flurry

Canadian- Snowstorm of 4-8 inches

European- Storm going way to sea (nothing)

NAM- Heavy rains of 1-2 inches

GFS- Light snow with storm going out to sea

NOGAPS- Wintry mix 1-3 inches of snow

JMA- Massive snowstorm 8-12+ inches

Okay, as of right now I have no idea what is going to happening. Things are most certainly going to be interesting to see what actually happens. Personally I think the storm will end up tracking to far west and personally the NOGAPS model looks like the best bet, as of right now....

Check back tomorrow after the 12z models come out

A look into the future

2009-02-24T13:48:00.000-08:00

Short Range: (Wed Feb 25th- Saturday Feb 28th)

The short range is looking very bad if you are into skiing/riding across the eastern US as a rain maker will move into most the region. Unless you live at the northern tip of Maine, its mostly just a rain event. The good thing is that areas with normally icy conditions (NJ+PA resorts) will now have softer snow and the deep snow base will most certainly live through the rain storm because man made snow is strong stuff. The three to five feet that fell in the mountains of New England in the past few days will most certainly be melted down and turned to ice for the weekend so it wouldn't be wise to make a trip up there this weekend, our home turf will have better snow conditions. By the weekend things cool down and another storm system is on the horizon, but this time colder air will be around and that starts the medium range.

Medium range: (Sunday Mar 1st-Thursday Mar 5th)

To start off the first week of March, which will most definitely come in like a lion, a storm system will ride up the eastern United States. As of right now all models are showing a snow event for the area including the European, and you can see that below:

Don't get too excited though. Given the trend of the entire season thus far it will most likely track further west than the models predict and the big snows will be up north and in the mountains. While the main storm track this season has not done justice to the people living in the big cities for us here in northwest Jersey we now have between 30"-45" inches (37.8" in Netcong) of snow with the most in the highest of terrain. The storms in the past usually brought us a few inches of snow to start, then a brief period of sleet, several hours of freezing rain, then a period of drizzle to end. I have no reason to think that it will happen any other way, in fact its the most likely thing I can see happening. Of course since a storm is on the way I will post blogs more frequently to let you know what the MODELS are saying, and then give my personal opinion of them.

After the storm moves through a deep trough will move in and temperatures will be ten or more degrees below average for March, if any patch work snow making at the resorts needs to be done then this is the time to do it. After what could be the last major arctic blast of the season a warm and mild Pacific air mass will move in and will most certainly affect trail counts across the region and spring riding and skiing will begin to take place. This starts the long range.

Long Range: (Friday Mar 6th-March 15th) **Note subject to change

The seconds week of March looks to more mild with an active storm track but with cold air just to the north any storm could be a potential snow maker like the one showing up for Wednesday the 11th. March is one of my favorite months of the year mainly because anything can happen with the battle of the air masses going on, awesome things. It's very interesting meteorologically speaking just to see the season literally changing in what seems just days in time. By this time the NAO will mostly likely be at a strong negative blocking pattern and the wavelengths of troughs begin to shorten, this could set up a snowy pattern with melting going on at the same time as true arctic air is in short supply.

Beyond: (March 16th-April)

By the third to fourth week of March Mountain Creek is typically closed as all the snow has melted away. But that doesn't mean it can't still snow, it's still too far to tell but late March and early April snow events are not unheard of and are actually common in northwest Jersey. Old man winter had his shot by this time and if he didn't please you then there is always next year, and my Winter Outlook for 2009-2010 will have strong chances for a February blizzard. Just going strictly off of statistics. This time of year I typically put the snowboarding gear into the attic and get out the fishing pole since trout season is right around the corner!

Boring....

2009-02-23T12:48:00.000-08:00

Well I certainly enjoyed my weekend up at Killington Vermont. I was going to go to Whiteface NY originally but changed my mind while I was driving on the thruway, talk about a last minute......

Anyway I enjoyed my several FEET of fresh powder up there in Killington and now back to reality here in Jersey. Here is the reality: "I don't see anything at all in our near future that will be a major/minor snow accumulation", it's not that it has been too warm, but it's just been very dry. The short range is really not looking good with average temperatures, meaning slightly above freezing during the day and cold nights, which is the worst possible thing for those of us who want nice soft snow. It will be ICE at the NJ ski resorts for some time into the future, at least until March?

The good thing about March is that the temperatures rise up enough so that the snow base can soften up and provide some great spring conditions and the potential is around for some of the strongest and most wild storms ever seen off the east coast (IE March Super Storm 1993), or we could get nothing at all (IE Last March). As of right now I have not gotten a chance to look into the long range, I can't tonight because House is on (Channel 5 at 8:00 btw), so tomorrow evening I will post a long range forecast...

NAM was right...

2009-02-18T16:47:00.000-08:00

Well, the system is now lifting out and yes, the higher elevations of northwest Jersey did their 2-3 inches of wet snow, including me! Place like high point, sunrise mountain, the allamuchy's, and the hamburg mountains mostly likely picked up 3-5 inches of the white stuff. Unfortunately the only of verifying it is to go on a hike and measure it.

Let's see what happens with this weekend storm. I won't be around though, Whiteface Mountain at Lake Placid calls my name.

Is the NAM right?

2009-02-18T08:24:00.000-08:00

Okay, well I can't really tell if the NAM is correct or not. The recent run shows an even colder solution with more precipitation. Backing it up is the NMM model, Canadian, and now the GFS has trended slightly colder (but not to the extent of the NAM). The only issues we have working against us is
1: Lack of current snow cover
2: Warm soil temperatures
3: Lack of cold air

If we can over come these issues (all related to temperature) by getting colder air in, than we have a shot. I really believe the area will pick up a few inches of snow if the models are correct, and the highest elevations will get as much as eight inches (at high point). Then again, I am only really going off of one or two models. Let's see if this model below is right or not:

Who to believe

2009-02-18T07:12:00.000-08:00

The NAM is still showing that colder solution while the GFS is going back to warm. The NAM is what most forecasters use for short range events so maybe we can just throw out the GFS just for today? The highest elevations will most certainly get more snow than the valleys, right now the places to get hit hardest looks to be Highland Lakes, Montague, Lake Hopacatcong, Mount Olive, West Milford, and the Allamuchy mountains. As for that central valley of Sussex, Hackettstown, and eastern Morris sorry...

Let's see what happens with the 12z model