Andrew Allison - A Conservative View

Tories back in a comfortable double-digit lead

2009-11-23T22:32:00.001Z

Yesterday we had the rogue poll cutting the Tory lead to 6%. Now, yet another poll is released which will make Conservatives sleep a little easier in their beds tonight; Tories on 39%, Labour 22% and the Lib Dems on 21%. Others on 18%.

Two things worthy of note. Firstly, I have said for a quite some time that Labour and the Lib Dems are neck and neck on around 23%. This poll – taking into account the margin of error – suggests the same.

Secondly, the amount of people saying they will vote for other parties is increasing. This backs up my assertion the next election will be the biggest anti-government vote in a century. Once again, nothing in the polls – apart from the odd rogue poll – makes me think any differently.

Margaret Thatcher comes home

2009-11-23T21:23:00.001Z

Margaret Thatcher went back home today – to No. 10 Downing Street. She was there for the unveiling of an official portrait of her by the artist, Richard Stone.

Click here to see a video report from BBC News.

The net financial cost of Britain’s membership of the EU

2009-11-22T21:05:00.001Z

Judging by some of the messages I have received about my last post, there appears to be some confusion, which I will now clear up.

During the next financial year – 2010/11 – Britain’s net contribution to the EU will be £6.4 billion. This is how much the British taxpayer will stump up after our rebate and receipts are taken into account. For more information, please read this article written by the renowned and respected economist, Ruth Lea.

Speaking to East Yorkshire Conservatives

2009-11-21T14:32:00.001Z

Last night I was the speaker at a supper club meeting of East Yorkshire Conservatives in Bridlington, on the subject of Quangos. Most people there were genuinely shocked at the amount of money being spent by Quangos and how much our membership of the European Union costs us each year. I quoted the following from Dr Lee Rotherham’s book, Ten Years On: Britain without the European Union.

While you were watching the last Harry Potter, £1,891,998 was transferred to Brussels.

During the England footy match, £1,113,000 left the British bank account for good.

In the time that it took you to boil an egg, £37,098 was surrendered to the EU.

£12,366 in one minute.

£206.11 in the heart pump of a second.

Another £206.11.

And then another.

It made no sense at all. It was like forming a human chain to pass gold bullion down Blackpool pier and to dump a brick off the end every hundred seconds.

Every hour was a new Angel of the North being built by British taxpayers in another country.

The bill for just two days paid for the whole Royal Family.

Three days would have kept your local community hospital running for a year.

Five days of EU membership would have covered all the repairs needed to every cathedral in England, or paid for a new Kew Gardens.

Ten days would have bought a new Belmarsh prison.

Why not just cut out the middle man? Instead of handing over three and a half weeks of net payments, you could have simulated the financial loss by cutting down all the trees in England looked after by the Forestry Commission and ploughing salt into the soil.

For the equivalent value effect of five months of fees, you could have just burned every picture and every painting in the National Gallery. Or the Treasury could have taken revenge on international bankers, and paid the annual deficit by just handing over all the revenue of the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man.

Food for thought? The statistics are breathtaking when stated in a way we can all relate to. I would like to thank East Yorkshire Conservatives for their very warm welcome and excellent hospitality. I had a very enjoyable time in Bridlington and look forward to returning.

Flooding in Cockermouth

2009-11-20T17:06:00.001Z

Looking at the pictures from Cockermouth brought back the unhappy memories of when we were flooded in June 2007. So many people have had their lives turned upside down and judging by the scale of the flooding, they will be out of their homes much longer than the six and a half months we were out for.

My thoughts also go out to the family, friends and colleagues of PC Bill Barker, whose body was found earlier today. His widow has said the died doing the job the loved. According to Sky News

, he had been diverting traffic off Northside Bridge near Workington when it collapsed, throwing him into the River Derwent. It shows the courage, bravery and sense of duty of all members of the emergency services. The magnificent job they do should make us all proud.

Sir Stuart Bell in the Queen’s Speech Debate

2009-11-18T20:49:00.001Z

Sir Stuart Bell, the MP for Middlesbrough since 1983, has had a long career as an author, journalist, barrister and parliamentarian. I know he is gripped by a love affair with the EU, no doubt brought about during his time practicing law in France. Listening to him in the Queen’s Speech debate though, I began to wonder if like the prime minister he has become divorced from reality,

The big story about the Queen’s Speech today is what is not in it. After the turbulent year MPs have had, one would have thought Gordon Brown would grasp the nettle and include some form of reform bill. This was not to be. Sir Stuart – quite rightly – said in the House of Commons this afternoon, the voters are not talking about MPs’ expenses and allowances. They are talking about other issues affecting them. He thinks the Commons will once again become a great institution without reforming it. At least not undergoing any major reforms. What he is forgetting is if it was not for the recession, the public would be taking MPs to task. Just because we in the grips of a recession does not mean politicians should sweep these matters under the carpet and hope they will go away.

Sir Stuart then went on to make the most nonsensical remark I have heard a politician make in a long time. To paraphrase him, he believes during this economic downturn, Britain needs the EU more than it has done in the past. How? Why? Do British businesses need more red tape; more bureaucracy; more rules and regulation? Do fishermen need the Common Fisheries Policy? Do we really need more decisions taken away from us; important decisions affecting our democracy and our economy?

Britain needs the EU like a hole in the head. To help us get out of this recession we need to throw off the shackles of the EU. British businesses need to freed from the red tape. If Sir Stuart Bell cannot see this, perhaps it is time he hung up his boots.

Quote of the Day

2009-11-18T15:45:00.001Z

Cast iron promises from the Conservative Party aren’t what they used to be

Gordon Brown – House of Commons – 18/11/09

Britain is best placed to weather the economic storm. No more boom and bust. British jobs for British workers, to name just three. The prime minister seems to have a poor memory as well as a poor grasp of reality.

The Cost of the Common Fisheries Policy

2009-11-17T22:25:00.001Z

Tonight, I have been reading a report on the Common Fisheries Policy. With the latest TPA campaign highlighting how life would be very different outside the EU, I have been looking at a policy that has had such a detrimental effect on the British fishing industry. Living in Hull, this is something important to the people of Hull and the Humber Region in general.

Once again, the Taxpayers’ Alliance is at the forefront of research into the economic impact the EU has on the UK economy. The UK fishing fleet, and associated industries have been crippled on three occasions in the past century: by the Kaiser, Hitler and the Common Fisheries Policy. On the first two occasions, the North Sea was a war zone.

To read the report I have been reading tonight. click HERE.

Recipe for EU Agriculture Fudge

2009-11-17T10:44:00.001Z

Following on from the cinema advertisement I posted yesterday, I realised I hadn’t posted the following video on EU Agriculture Fudge. Another great way to the message across of how just how much the EU costs us each year.

Archbishop of Canterbury speaks on the economy and taxation

2009-11-16T20:41:00.001Z

I don’t agree with him, but if you want to know what all the fuss is about, here is Rowan Williams’ full speech to the TUC today. Apparently taxation should not be regarded as an unreasonable burden and “tax is about corporate insurance … and is the essence of the democratic process.”

Just when you think you have heard it all, someone comes along with something new.

Beyond Crisis: Archbishop Rowan Williams from Trades Union Congress on Vimeo.

What if Britain left the EU?

2009-11-16T18:58:00.001Z

When I was growing up, the UK was part of the European Economic Community – the ‘Common Market.’ The EEC then transformed itself into the European Community. As part of this ongoing process, the transformation continued and the UK became part of the European Union. At no point during this were we the voters given the opportunity to have our say. Instead, those whom we elect to serve our interests, wilfully gave away huge chunks of our sovereignty to an unelected superquango in Brussels.

The advertisement at the top of this blog will be rolling out in cinemas nationally later this week. It gives you a glimpse of how much the EU costs taxpayers and businesses. It also promotes Dr Lee Rotherham’s new book, ‘Ten Years On: Britain without the European Union.’ It’s not just the financial cost though. Our right to govern ourselves as a free nation state has gone. We need to get this right back. This is just the start of a long campaign for democracy and freedom, but it is a fight we must win to rid ourselves of the meddling Brussels bureaucracy.

Family members working for MPs

2009-11-15T16:00:00.000Z

Watching the Andrew Marr show this morning a rare occurrence happened: I found myself agreeing with John Bercow. I still regard him as an arrogant little shit; my opinion of him has not changed, but what he was correct on was the subject of spouses, partners and other family members working for MPs.

I feel sorry for those family members who have worked in the Commons for years, doing a great job and who have not abused the system. The problem is too many have abused the system and brought it into disrepute. The public perception is that everyone is on the fiddle, so I find myself agreeing with the Kelly Report and John Bercow. This practice must end.

As for the practice of agreeing with John Bercow? I'm sure this won't continue either.

X Factor Live Blog - Week 6

2009-11-14T16:55:00.000Z

There won't be one. I watch the programme to see some of our young people with potential develop into great singers. I happen to think there is a hell of a lot talent out there, but this programme has become - even more than it has in the past - a battle of egos between the judges. Last week, Simon Cowell - despite what he says - decided to push out a singer who was a genuine threat to his acts and who could have easily gone on to win the contest.

I won't be watching tonight, although my prediction is one of Simon's acts will leave the competition tomorrow, as the public seeks revenge on him. This rather goes to prove my point. Another singer will leave, not because of their talent, but because of the battle of the egos going on with the judges.

John & Edward will live to fight another day. They are being primed for a short, novelty pop career and then jobs presenting on TV. Either way, Simon Cowell's bank balance is set to rise, unless people switch-off their sets, which I know will not happen in the numbers required to worry him.

Glasgow North-East proves Labour is on the slide

2009-11-14T11:19:00.002Z

I'm down with the flu and not at my best, however, I do want to comment on the result of the Glasgow North-East by-election.

If you look at ukpollingreport, you will see since 1997, Labour has polled fewer votes at each subsequent election, although during this time Michael Martin was standing as Speaker. In 1997 Labour polled 22534 votes. In 2001, 16053 votes. In 2005, 15153 votes. In the by-election, Labour polled 12231 votes. There has been a boundary change, but in a solid Labour area, this has not made any difference.

What we see here, is election after election, Labour voters are not voting for other parties, instead they are staying at home. If you look into data in other constituencies you will see the same trend. This is why Labour MPs with majorities under around 8000 are getting the jitters. They know with a big anti-government vote on the way, they are vulnerable.

The Glasgow North-East by-election does not prove Labour is on the march. Far from it. It proves it is on the slide. Labour's best hope for the next election is its core vote stays at home. This is the only way it can retain many seats it would normally regard as safe.

March election 'unlikely'

2009-11-11T23:15:00.003Z

Forget a March election. At least that's what Iain Dale thinks, along with the BBC's Nick Robinson and George Osborne's advisers.

I was out with some friends tonight and the this subject came up. I have thought for some time the most likely month for a general election is April. The turnout at a general election is always higher than at local elections. With this in mind, Labour would get a bigger drubbing at the hands of the voters across town and county halls. Although Labour is bankrupt and hasn't got the cash to fight a general election, never mind the local elections, I still think Brown will steer clear of May 6 and he won't let this parliament run until June. I predict the general election will be on April 15. April 8 is unlikely as it is just after Easter.

If I am right, remember you read it here. If I'm wrong, just forget you ever read it!

Gordon Brown and 'The Sun'

2009-11-10T08:59:00.003Z

If you make an enemy out of 'The Sun' newspaper, it certainly knows

how to twist the knife. If its latest attacks on the prime minister

are anything to go by, the Conservative Party can do without its

'help.'

Most fair minded people feel the prime minister is doing the right

thing sending handwritten letters to the next of kin of our troops

killed in action. He has very poor eyesight and writes using a

felt-tip pen because of this. He probably wrote the letter to Jacqui

Janes when he was very tired and seals the envelope himself. He

regards this as personal correspondence.

'The Sun' is trying to score cheap political points and is using a

mother's grief in the process. Publishing a transcript of a private

telephone conversation between her and the prime minister is

reprehensible. I'm sure Gordon Brown feels awful about this. His

sincere condolences have been twisted. This is not what politics ought

to be about.

Sent from my mobile device

Will Cameron's announcement last week pave the way for a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU?

2009-11-09T22:25:00.001Z

At a fringe event during the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester, David Trimble urged us not to give up hope with David Cameron. He said if Cameron does become prime minister, a list of demands will be presented to the EU and if those demands are not met, this will pave the way for a referendum asking the electorate if we want to be in or out.

The list of demands has just be announced. I don't believe for one moment he will get his way. I can only hope Lord Trimble is correct in his belief a referendum on our membership of the EU will be called. If this is Cameron's plan, I fully support him. Those of us who know Britain will be better off out also know we will only have one chance to win a referendum. Unlike referenda in other EU countries, we will not have the option of asking for another vote. Nor should we.

If Cameron does not plan a future referendum and is instead fudging the issue, he will face the wrath of the rank and file of the Conservative Party and the country. Time will tell, but in the meantime I and many others will be presenting our case and explaining why Britain has everything to gain from no longer being a member of the European Union.

The Berlin Wall: 13 August 1961 - 9 November 1989

2009-11-09T20:46:00.003Z

Twenty years ago today, the biggest symbol of communism and oppression - the Berlin Wall - was being dismantled. Those of us who watched it happen on our televisions will never forget the images of joy and hope. I would have loved to have been there to share in that euphoric moment.

I have visited Eastern Germany many times over the last few years and the change has been breathtaking. People no longer have to worry their friends and neighbours may be spying on them for the Stasi. Gone are the ruins from the Second World War. Gone is the despair of having your life completely run by the state.

Tonight is a night for celebration. A new generation has grown up not experiencing first hand the horrors of communism. If you have no other reason to celebrate today, celebrate that.

X Factor Live Blog - Week 5 Results

2009-11-08T20:00:00.007Z

Who is going tonight? I would love it be John & Edward, but I know I'm not going to get my wish. I think it will be Lloyd Daniels. He was poor last week, but allowances were made by the judges due to his sore throat. This week he has apparently recovered, but was still very poor.

UPDATE: 20:29 I didn't reckon much to the last offering from the Black Eyed Peas, but Leona Lewis is showing how much of a star she is. This girl has a very long career ahead of her.

UPDATE: 20:37 The waiting is almost over. The results are in. The contestants saved in order of announcement are:

Joe McElderry, Olly Murs, Stacey Solomon, Lloyd Daniels, Danyl Johnson, Jamie Archer.

I am shocked. Lucie is in the bottom two! The up-side to this should mean John & Edward will be sent packing by the judges, otherwise another great talent will be lost from the show.

UPDATE: 20:45 Lucie is up first singing One Moment in Time. She is shaky, but I guess it's to be expected. Now she is getting into her stride. Much better and a great ending.

Now John & Edward are about to start and are being booed on stage. They are singing 'Rock DJ.' Surprisingly they are not doing that bad a job of it, although as this song has a lot of talking in it, perhaps is not that surprising after all.

It's all down to Simon now and he is taking it down to the public vote. The act going is: Lucie Jones. Simon is protecting his acts by eliminating a possible threat. He said she couldn't win the competition. She could have won and it is one of those weeks where the public thought she was safe and didn't vote. This show really is becoming a joke. What's the point of having judges?

X Factor Live Blog - Week 5

2009-11-07T19:48:00.015Z

It's that time again, folks. Who will go out after tonight's performance? Is it too much to hope it will be John and Edward?

1. Stacey Solomon - She looks good, but she doesn't sound good. I think Stacey is going to be a victim of the public vote in the next 2-3 weeks. Her performances are going downhill. 5/10

2. Olly Murs - He has a retro Beatles look. You have to hand it to Simon Cowell, he really does know the right songs to pick for his acts. Olly is good tonight. He has the style and stage presence. 8/10

3. Lloyd Daniels - Bad start. Cheryl says he has recovered from his bad throat. So what's the excuse for tonight? Poor singer. 3/10

4. Jamie Archer - Simon's look says it all. Poor start, but it's getting better. It was emotional towards the end and Louis really is looking like a petty council official. 6/10

5. Lucie Jones - A strong start, which not all can say tonight. She seems very comfortable on stage and this shines through her performances. 9/10

6. Danyl Johnson - The pressure is on him tonight. He's not great, but he's not bad either and based on the performance tonight, he should stay in. 7/10

7. John & Edward - Here we go. How bad can this be? There is something strange on the television. Rubbish. 1/10

8. Joe McElderry - It's time for little Geordie Joe. Not my words. Thank Cheryl for that. One of the things I cannot understand in this competition is the put-down of musical theatre. Perhaps it has something to do with the amount of musical theatre I have done. Well done, Joe. 8/10

Reflections on the last 48 hours

2009-11-06T21:23:00.001Z

Firstly, I must apologise for the radio silence during the last two days. I have been deep in thought, considering where my political future lies. I have decided my future lies in the Conservative Party. I will explain why.

I have received many messages over the last 48 hours, but one person has stood out. Man in a Shed - who I found out tonight, whilst talking to him on the telephone - does not really live in a shed, convinced me to stay in the party. He understands where I am coming from and is sympathetic to my viewpoint. Others - and I still thank them for their messages - do not understand where I am coming from, and at times I could have easily resigned from the party after hearing from them, even though that was not their intention.

I am playing the long game. It may take many years to convince our political leaders there should be a referendum on our membership of the EU and it will take time to ensure the British people are convinced too, but when that time happens I will make sure I am at the forefront of a referendum campaign to say 'YES' we want Britain out of the European Union.

In the meantime, Britain will be much better off under a Conservative government. It is the Conservative Party that will have to sort out the mess 13 years of a Labour government has given us. I have been on a journey these past two days. I have not changed my mind about the EU, but I know the only chance of ever having change is under a Conservative government.

David Cameron's Speech

2009-11-04T21:19:00.000Z

I will be writing about Cameron's speech, but I think it is better if I write it once I have been scraped from the ceiling. Needless to say, I am fuming and actively considering my position within the Conservative Party. I want the best for Britain, and although I believe Britain will be better off under a Tory government, rather than the shower we have at the moment, I still feel David Cameron is fudging the issue of Europe, rather than dealing with the problem head-on.

More tomorrow.

David Wiltshire disgraces himself (again)

2009-11-02T20:57:00.001Z

As a keen observer of all things political, I must confess that until recently I had never heard of David Wiltshire. He has been an MP since 1987 and seems to have enjoyed a life of relative anonymity until the past few weeks. He is the man who paid his own company over £100,000 of taxpayers' money from his MP's expenses account. Not a great way to become famous. Now he links the treatment of MPs to the treatment of Jews in Nazi Germany.

There are and have been some great parliamentarians of all political colours. Mr Wiltshire is definitely not one of them. The House of Commons will be richer for him going, rather than poorer. In other words; good riddance to bad rubbish

Has Alan Johnson shown himself to be a bully?

2009-11-02T20:04:00.000Z

Alan Johnson is one of the few members of this government I like. I have said before he passes the pint test. He is someone who would be very good company in one of the many hostelries of Hull. This weekend though, I can't quite get my head around his thinking.

Professor David Nutt gave his expert opinion. Alan Johnson disagrees. As the Home Secretary is the man who has to make a final decision, I have no problem with him saying he is not going to go along with Prof. Nutt's advice, but I do have a problem with him not saying why, otherwise what is the point of having advisers?

Mr Johnson has shown himself as a man who doesn't know what he is talking about; has to stick to the party line and does what any bully would do; get rid of the person who is challenging him. Not that the Conservatives have been any better. Chris Grayling merely trotted out the party line. No doubt he and Mr Johnson will get a good write-up in the Daily Mail, but it does nothing for those of us who would like to know more. I would like to see a long interview with Prof. Nutt and hear his views. Then I would like the Home Secretary to counter his argument.

Just because Alan Johnson can fire his adviser is not a good enough reason for doing so. Bullies tend to be weak. Perhaps we are seeing the true side of Alan Johnson. I hope not.

X Factor Live Blog - Week 4 Results

2009-11-01T20:27:00.002Z

Here's hoping John & Edward are going home tonight, but I don't think they will. I'm not going to predict who it's going to be. We'll just have to wait and see.

UPDATE: Rachel was fantastic last night. For me, her best performance so far. For her to go was wrong. Lloyd was poor last night and it didn't surprise me he was in the bottom two. Once again the twins keep on going like a knackered old banger that really should have been consigned to the scrap heap. The British public seems to like mediocrity when it comes to the way they vote on the X Factor.