Robin Keyte : Independent Financial Adviser

Robin's Round-Up of Financial Data for July 2009

2009-07-06T08:02:00.000Z

Redemption yields on short-dated gilts imply interest rates will start rising in the next 12 months and continue to rise quite rapidly thereafter. The inference is the need to curb inflationary pressures from a recovering economy. Historically shares recover before the end of a recession, on receiving the first set of reliable data that the end is coming. Over the next 12 months or so we may therefore see an upturn in the share market, followed by an increase in interest rates and inflation, and the bottoming out of the residential property market. RPI has gone to –1.10% and CPI has reduced a little to 2.20%. Redemption yields on long dated gilts have remained around 4.3%, but still remain historically low due to quantitative easing, which is potentially bad news for future annuitants. Long dated gilt yields should pick up strongly over the next few years as HM Government increases gilt issuance to pay for the economic stimulus package. Fund manager house views currently favour UK shares and American shares.

Bank of England base rate of interest							0.50% pa

Short dated gilts (redemption yields)		8.00% Treasury Stock 2009 redeeming 25-09-2009					0.87% pa
		6.25% Treasury Stock 2010 redeeming 25-11-2010					1.03% pa
		3.25% Treasury Gilt 2011 redeeming 07-12-2011					1.96% pa
		9.00% Treasury Stock 2012 redeeming 06-08-2012					2.57% pa

Long dated gilts (red yields)		5.00% Treasury Stock 2025 redeeming 07-03-2025					4.29% pa

London Inter-Bank Offered Rate		LIBOR 1 WEEK					0.50% pa
		LIBOR 1 MONTH					0.52% pa
		LIBOR 3 MONTHS					0.55% pa
		LIBOR 6 MONTHS					0.62% pa
		LIBOR 12 MONTHS					0.84% pa

Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)							2.20% pa
Retail Prices Index (RPI)							-1.10% pa

National Savings & Investments		3 Yr Index-Linked Savings Certs offering RPI +					1.00% pa
		5 Yr Index-Linked Savings Certs offering RPI +					1.00% pa

Exchange Rates		£1.00 buys:		€1.17			$1.64

Fund Managers – Current House Views on Different Asset Classes
Asset Class	Positive	Slightly Positive	Neutral		Slightly Negative	Negative		Total Views Offered
Cash					1	2		3
Property			1		2	1		4
UK Fixed Interest	2	1	1			1		5
Overseas Fixed Interest		1			1			2
UK shares	2	1	1			1		5
European shares			3		1	1		5
American shares	3	1				1		5
Japanese shares		1	2		1	1		5
Pacific (ex Japan) shares	1	1	2			1		5

Data gathered on 1 July 2009. All figures given to 2 decimal places. Participating fund managers: UBS, Standard Life, F&C, BlackRock, Canada Life.

DISCLAIMER

Please note, whilst every effort has been made to ensure the information contained in this document is correct, sometimes the information given to us by third parties is inaccurate. We cannot therefore be held responsible for the accuracy of this information and it should not be relied upon for making any decisions.

Robin's Round-Up of Financial Data for June 2009

2009-06-02T08:20:00.001Z

Redemption yields on short-dated gilts imply interest rates will start rising in the next 12 months and continue to rise quite rapidly thereafter. The inference is the need to curb inflationary pressures from a recovering economy. Historically shares recover before the end of a recession, on receiving the first set of reliable data that the end is coming. Over the next 12 months or so we may therefore see an upturn in the share market, followed by an increase in interest rates and inflation, and the bottoming out of the residential property market. RPI has dropped to –1.20% and CPI has reduced a little to 2.30%. We expect CPI to decline and RPI to go further negative over the next 6 months, and then for that position to start reversing. Redemption yields on long dated gilts have risen over the last month, but still remain historically low due to quantitative easing, and is potentially bad news for future annuitants. Long dated gilt yields should pick up strongly over the next few years as HM Government increases gilt issuance to pay for the economic stimulus package. Fund manager house views currently favour UK shares and American shares.

Bank of England base rate of interest							0.50% pa

Short dated gilts (redemption yields)		8.00% Treasury Stock 2009 redeeming 25-09-2009					0.80% pa
		6.25% Treasury Stock 2010 redeeming 25-11-2010					0.79% pa
		3.25% Treasury Gilt 2011 redeeming 07-12-2011					1.62% pa
		9.00% Treasury Stock 2012 redeeming 06-08-2012					2.22% pa

Long dated gilts (red yields)		5.00% Treasury Stock 2025 redeeming 07-03-2025					4.30% pa

London Inter-Bank Offered Rate		LIBOR 1 WEEK					0.52% pa
		LIBOR 1 MONTH					0.55% pa
		LIBOR 3 MONTHS					0.60% pa
		LIBOR 6 MONTHS					0.65% pa
		LIBOR 12 MONTHS					0.76% pa

Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)							2.30% pa
Retail Prices Index (RPI)							-1.20% pa

National Savings & Investments		3 Yr Index-Linked Savings Certs offering RPI +					1.00% pa
		5 Yr Index-Linked Savings Certs offering RPI +					1.00% pa

Exchange Rates		£1.00 buys:		€1.15			$1.62

Fund Managers – Current House Views on Different Asset Classes
Asset Class	Positive	Slightly Positive	Neutral		Slightly Negative	Negative		Total Views Offered
Cash		1	1		1	1		4
Property					3	1		4
UK Fixed Interest			3		1	1		5
Overseas Fixed Interest		1	1		1			3
UK shares	1	1	3					5
European shares		1	3		1			5
American shares	2	2			1			5
Japanese shares			4		1			5
Pacific (ex Japan) shares	1	1	2			1		5

Data gathered on 1 June 2009. All figures given to 2 decimal places. Participating fund managers: Schroders, Standard Life, BlackRock, UBS, Scottish Widows

DISCLAIMER

Robin's Round-Up of Financial Data for May 2009

2009-05-06T11:23:00.000Z

Redemption yields on short-dated gilts imply interest rates will start rising in the next 12 months and continue to rise quite rapidly thereafter. The inference is the need to curb inflationary pressures from a recovering economy. Historically shares recover before the end of a recession, on receiving the first set of reliable data that the end is coming. Over the next 12 months or so we may therefore see an upturn in the share market, followed by an increase in interest rates and inflation, and the bottoming out of the residential property market. RPI has dropped to –0.40% and CPI has reduced a little. We expect CPI to decline and RPI to go further negative over the next 6 months, and then for that position to start reversing. Redemption yields on long dated gilts have risen over the last month, but still remain low which is due to quantitative easing, and is bad news for potential annuitants. Long dated gilt yields should pick up strongly over the next few years as HM Government increases gilt issuance to pay for the economic stimulus package. Fund manager house views currently favour UK fixed interest (particularly corporate bonds), UK shares, American shares & Pacific shares.

Bank of England base rate of interest							0.50% pa

Short dated gilts (redemption yields)		8.00% Treasury Stock 2009 redeeming 25-09-2009					0.71% pa
		6.25% Treasury Stock 2010 redeeming 25-11-2010					0.81% pa
		3.25% Treasury Gilt 2011 redeeming 07-12-2011					1.69% pa
		9.00% Treasury Stock 2012 redeeming 06-08-2012					2.20% pa

Long dated gilts (red yields)		5.00% Treasury Stock 2025 redeeming 07-03-2025					4.21% pa

London Inter-Bank Offered Rate		LIBOR 1 WEEK					0.53% pa
		LIBOR 1 MONTH					0.55% pa
		LIBOR 3 MONTHS					0.62% pa
		LIBOR 6 MONTHS					0.66% pa
		LIBOR 12 MONTHS					0.83% pa

Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)							2.90% pa
Retail Prices Index (RPI)							-0.40% pa

National Savings & Investments		3 Yr Index-Linked Savings Certs offering RPI +					1.00% pa
		5 Yr Index-Linked Savings Certs offering RPI +					1.00% pa

Exchange Rates		£1.00 buys:		€1.12			$1.49

Fund Managers – Current House Views on Different Asset Classes
Asset Class	Positive	Slightly Positive	Neutral		Slightly Negative	Negative		Total Views Offered
Cash			1			1		2
Property					2	2		4
UK Fixed Interest	3	1				1		5
Overseas Fixed Interest					1			1
UK shares	2	1	1			1		5
European shares		2			1	2		5
American shares	2		2			1		5
Japanese shares		1	1		1	2		5
Pacific (ex Japan) shares	1	2	1		1			5

Data gathered on 1 May 2009. All figures given to 2 decimal places. Participating fund managers: Threadneedle, UBS, Gartmore, F&C, Schroders.

DISCLAIMER

Robin's Round-Up of Financial Data for April 2009

2009-04-02T13:43:00.001Z

Over the next 12 months or so we may therefore see an upturn in the share market, followed by an increase in interest rates and inflation, and the bottoming out of the residential property market.

RPI has dropped to 0% and CPI has crept up a little. We expect CPI to decline and RPI to go negative over the next 6 months, and then for that position to reverse in 12 months or so.

Redemption yields on long dated gilts have dropped due to quantitative easing, which is bad news for potential annuitants. This should reverse as HM Government increases gilt issuance to pay for the economic stimulus package.

Fund manager house views show UK fixed interest, UK shares, American shares and Pacific shares in favour.

Bank of England base rate of interest								0.50% pa

Short dated gilts (redemption yields)		8.00% Treasury Stock 2009 redeeming 25-09-2009						0.70% pa
		6.25% Treasury Stock 2010 redeeming 25-11-2010						0.88% pa
		3.25% Treasury Gilt 2011 redeeming 07-12-2011						1.63% pa
		9.00% Treasury Stock 2012 redeeming 06-08-2012						2.22% pa

Long dated gilts (red yields)		5.00% Treasury Stock 2025 redeeming 07-03-2025						3.89% pa

London Inter-Bank Offered Rate		LIBOR 1 WEEK						0.69% pa
		LIBOR 1 MONTH						1.10% pa
		LIBOR 3 MONTHS						1.73% pa
		LIBOR 6 MONTHS						1.96% pa
		LIBOR 12 MONTHS						2.12% pa

Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)								3.20% pa
Retail Prices Index (RPI)								0.00% pa

National Savings & Investments		3 Yr Index-Linked Savings Certs offering RPI +						1.00% pa
		5 Yr Index-Linked Savings Certs offering RPI +						1.00% pa

Exchange Rates				£1.00 buys:		€1.09		$1.44

Fund Managers – Current House Views on Different Asset Classes
Asset Class	Positive	Slightly Positive	Neutral		Slightly Negative		Negative		Total Views Offered
Cash		1	1				1		3
Property					2		2		4
UK Fixed Interest	1	2	1		1				5
Overseas Fixed Interest			1		1				2
UK shares	1	1	2				1		5
European shares		1	2		1		1		5
American shares	3	2							5
Japanese shares		1	3		1				5
Pacific (ex Japan) shares	1	2	2						5

Data gathered on 1 April 2009. All figures given to 2 decimal places. Participating fund managers: BlackRock, UBS, Schroders, Scottish Widows, Canada Life.

DISCLAIMER

Robin's Round-Up of Financial Data for March 2009

2009-03-03T10:05:00.001Z

Yields on gilts redeeming in 2009 and 2010 imply the base rate of interest may drop further, down to around 0.75% perhaps, and remain there for a year or so. Thereafter interest rates may rise quite rapidly.

The difference between LIBOR and the base rate remains much reduced implying some of the government's special measures are continuing to work.

RPI has dropped very rapidly due primarily to the reduction in the number of mortgages being arranged, and will probably go negative. CPI has continued to go down but at a lesser rate and remains above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Long dated gilt yields (upon which annuity rates are based) remain below 5% and at historically low levels.

According to our straw poll of fund management groups, asset classes in favour are American, Japanese and Pacific shares, in spite of the 'exchange rate' cost of investing overseas when the £ is weak.

Bank of England base rate of interest						1.00% pa

Short dated gilts (redemption yields)		8.00% Treasury Stock 2009 redeeming 25-09-2009				0.75% pa
		6.25% Treasury Stock 2010 redeeming 25-11-2010				0.98% pa
		3.25% Treasury Gilt 2011 redeeming 07-12-2011				1.80% pa
		9.00% Treasury Stock 2012 redeeming 06-08-2012				2.12% pa

Long dated gilts (red yields)		5.00% Treasury Stock 2025 redeeming 07-03-2025				4.38% pa

London Inter-Bank Offered Rate		LIBOR 1 WEEK				1.16% pa
		LIBOR 1 MONTH				1.43% pa
		LIBOR 3 MONTHS				2.07% pa
		LIBOR 6 MONTHS				2.24% pa
		LIBOR 12 MONTHS				2.39% pa

Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)						3.00% pa
Retail Prices Index (RPI)						0.10% pa

National Savings & Investments		3 Yr Index-Linked Savings Certs offering RPI +				1.00% pa
		5 Yr Index-Linked Savings Certs offering RPI +				1.00% pa

Fund Managers Current House Views on Different Asset Classes
Asset Class	Positive	Slightly Positive	Neutral	Slightly Negative	Negative		Total Views Offered
Cash			1	1	1		3
Property				2	1		3
UK Fixed Interest			3	1	1		5
Overseas Fixed Interest		1					1
UK shares		3		1	2		6
European shares				4	1		5
American shares	1	3		1			5
Japanese shares		3	1	1			5
Pacific (ex Japan) shares		3			1		4

Data gathered on 2 March 2009. All figures given to 2 decimal places. Participating fund managers: BlackRock, UBS, Gartmore, F&C, Schroders, Standard Life.

DISCLAIMER

Robin Keyte : Independent Financial Adviser

Robin's Round-Up of Financial Data for July 2009

Bank of England base rate of interest

London Inter-Bank Offered Rate

National Savings & Investments

Fund Managers – Current House Views on Different Asset Classes

Asset Class

Robin's Round-Up of Financial Data for June 2009

Bank of England base rate of interest

London Inter-Bank Offered Rate

National Savings & Investments

Fund Managers – Current House Views on Different Asset Classes

Asset Class

Robin's Round-Up of Financial Data for May 2009

Bank of England base rate of interest

London Inter-Bank Offered Rate

National Savings & Investments

Fund Managers – Current House Views on Different Asset Classes

Asset Class

Robin's Round-Up of Financial Data for April 2009

Bank of England base rate of interest

London Inter-Bank Offered Rate

National Savings & Investments

Fund Managers – Current House Views on Different Asset Classes

Asset Class

Robin's Round-Up of Financial Data for March 2009

Bank of England base rate of interest

London Inter-Bank Offered Rate

National Savings & Investments

Fund Managers  Current House Views on Different Asset Classes

Asset Class

Fund Managers Current House Views on Different Asset Classes