Trading Goddess

Market Timing Charts (Update)

2009-11-21T17:43:00.002-05:00

This afternoon around 1 pm CST, I posted FIVE market timing charts with brief comments on Twitter.

See http://www.Twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics

Have a great weekend .......

The Winter Season of Dividends: Stocks Going Ex Dividend the First Week of December

2009-11-21T14:47:00.001-05:00

'Tis the season for dividends. There is a stock trading technique called 'Buying Dividends' that has generated a lot of interest from investors. This is the process of buying stocks before the ex dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend. This technique generally works only in bull markets.

When you buy dividends, there are many stocks in many different sectors to choose from. In order to be entitled to the dividend, you have to buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, and you can't sell the stock until after the ex date. The actual dividend may not be paid for another few weeks. WallStreetNewsNetwork has compiled a free downloadable and sortable Excel list of the stocks going ex dividend during the next week or two. WSNN.com came up with many dividend paying companies companies all with market caps over $500 million. Here are a couple examples showing the stock symbol, the ex-dividend date and the yield.

Brinker International, Inc. EAT ex div date: 12/1/2009 market cap: $1.4B yield: 3.2%

Chemical Financial Corporation CHFC ex div date: 12/2/2009 market cap: $556.2M yield: 5.1%

Kimberly-Clark Corporation KMB ex div date: 12/2/2009 market cap: $26.9B yield: 3.7%

The rest of the ex-dividend stocks can be found at wsnn.com. (If you have been to the website before, and the latest link doesn't show up, you may have to empty your cache.) If you like dividend stocks, you should check out the high yield utility stocks and the Monthly Dividend Stocks at WallStreetNewsNetwork.com or WSNN.com. For more details on dividend definitions, check out definitions of dividend dates. Don't forget to reconfirm the ex-dividend date with the company before implementing this technique.

Author doesn't own any of the above.

By Stockerblog.com

Friday: Dell Misses, Is Goldman Sachs Stupid or Evil?

2009-11-20T09:28:00.000-05:00

How can a firm that never loses money be so totally wrong?

Just this Monday, Goldman Sachs helped to gap the markets higher at the open in low-volume futures trading with the following pronouncement: "Goldman Sachs resumes coverage on Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) and gave DELL a Buy rating at a 12-month price target of $19. Goldman believes that DELL will benefit from a corporate PC refresh cycle and will show better earnings as DELL is trying to optimize its cost structure. Goldman believes Dell will report better than expected earnings and beat analysts’ expectations. Goldman expects DELL to report earnings of $1.09 for CY2009 and $1.37 for CY2010 from their previous estimates of $1.07 for CY2009 and $1.35 for CY2010." Fact is, they missed by a mile.

That report took Dell up 2% for the day and the Dow gained 150 points and we were dumbfounded by the move, both in DELL, who were swallowing a difficult acquisition of Perot Systems and of the market, which acted like $31Bn DELL is the same kind of bellwether that $120Bn HPQ is, even if Goldman's report had been even close to accurate. As it was, they couldn't have been more wrong if they were playing "opposite day." How is it that a firm that has only 3 losing trading days in 6 months can be this amazingly wrong on crucial analysis?

So is Goldman actually stupid and, as many have implied, simply cheating to rack up their amazing market gains or are they intentionally manipulating the markets. Former GS-employee Jim Cramer jumped right on the bandwagon on Monday afternoon and told viewers that "obviously," since DELL is going to do so well (because GS says so) that INTC and MSFT must be buys too.

This is how manipulative stock pumping works - start a rumor, push it out through the media, extrapolate the rumor out to affect market-moving stocks that don't even have upcoming news events and then tell people they are missing an opportunity, even after the train has left the station (by Cramer's 2:30 spot on Monday, the Nasdaq had already hit the high for the week, peaking out exactly at the moment Cramer told his retail investors to pile into the market).

Were the beautiful sheeple only buying what Cramer's buddies were selling? Is that how GS makes their money, buying low on Friday, making an upgrade on Monday, getting their pals to sucker people into the "rally" and then dumping into the retail frenzy? Sure buying low and selling high is what you are supposed to do - but there's a fine line between good timing and manipulating the market and when you allow the single largest daily trader of stocks on the planet Earth to also be one its most influential stock analysts - how can you possibly draw that line?

So, was Monday's call by Goldman an indication of how inacurate their research is and a scary indication that, perhaps, everything else they've been saying about oil, gold, the economy in general is also fundamentally flawed or are they just manipulating the markets with cleverly timed market announcements and then using their influence in the mainstream media to drive investors into positions which they dump at huge profits while wiping out ordinary investors? Maybe it's all just a big coincidence, let's hide our heads in the sand and hope so...

Speaking of manipulative market pronouncements, bond king Bill Gross decided option expiration day would be the best time to say that Chinese growth is likely to be hurt by an absence of consumer demand from trading partners such as the U.S. “The Chinese, I suspect, will have a bubble of their own to confront,” Gross said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “It’s gearing up for export that doesn’t find an end consumer, that’s the real problem in China."

The “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles in global economies and markets is rising with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at record lows, Gross wrote in his December investment outlook, posted on Pimco’s Web site yesterday. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and officials in Asia including Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Norman Chan are also warning of bubbles in the region. “With unemployment in the double digits and likely to stay close to that for the next six months despite job creation ahead, the Fed has nowhere to go,” Gross said. His outlook asks:

OK, so where does that leave you, the individual investor, the small saver who is paying the price of the .01%? Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Do you buy the investment grade bond market with its average yield of 3.75% (less than 3% after upfront fees and annual expenses at most run-of-the-mill bond funds)? Do you buy high yield bonds at 8% and assume the risk of default bullets whizzing at you? Or 2% yielding stocks that have already appreciated 65% from the recent bottom, which according to some estimates are now well above their long-term PE average on a cyclically adjusted basis?

Two suggestions. First, as emphasized in prior Investment Outlooks, the New Normal is likely to be a significantly lower-returning world. Diminished growth, deleveraging, and increased government involvement will temper profits and their eventual distribution to investors in the form of dividends and interest. As banks, auto companies and other corporate models become more regulated and therefore more like utilities and less like Boardwalk and Park Place, they will return less.

Where does that leave us indeed? Not only is Bill Gross worried about China but Japan's Deputy Prime Minister Kan is worried about DEflation, despite runaway commodity prices. “My understanding is that Japan is in a deflationary state,” said Kan. “There’s a sense of crisis” regarding deflation, Finance Minister Fujii said today, calling on the central bank to respond to the threat while adding that rates are already “very low” limiting room for further monetary policy action. The Nikkei dropped below 9,500 this morning, joined by the Hang Seng dropping below 22,500 as Asian stocks fell for the 4th consecutive day. Even the Shanghai Composite fell today so we're feeling good about those FXPs I mentioned in yesterday's morning post.

Over in Europe we are down about half a point ahead of the US market open (9am) as Trichet says the ECB may phase out some emergency aid in seeking stable prices. “Not all our liquidity measures will be needed to the same extent as in the past,” Trichet said at a conference in Frankfurt today. “Any non-standard measure whose continuation would pose a threat to the achievement of price stability must be undone promptly and unequivocally.” A separate Bloomberg survey of economists and real estate brokers showed British house prices will probably fall next year, and it may not take until 2014 to return to the levels at the 2007 peak of the country’s biggest housing boom.

Nationwide Building Society Chief Executive Officer Graham Beale said the rise in U.K. house prices this year has been caused by a low number of properties available for sale and the trend may reverse next year, pushing property prices lower. “The market is still overvalued, whichever measure you use,” said Seema Shah, a housing economist at Capital Economics Ltd., a research group in London, who was the most bearish in the survey. “Prices need to fall a further 20 percent to 25 percent to get back their long-term trend.”

The dollar is looking bouncy this morning and that will be good for UUP and all our bearish commodity plays. We'll see how our levels hold up for today. 2 weeks ago I posted our expected 25% level targets for this move at Dow 10,250, S&P 1,100, Nasdaq 2,187, NYSE 7,000 and Russell 600. We're already failing to hold those lines and it's doubtful they will be taken back so it's time to look at our expected retrace levels of Dow 9,840, S&P 1,056, Nas 2,100, NYSE 6,720 and Russell 576. Let's take failures there VERY seriously but, if we do hold them, then all this is just a healthy pullback off the top!

As we were then, we'll be watching the FTSE, who would put us globally bearish below 5,250 (right on the line) and the DAX, who would put us globally bullish above 5,750 (now at 5,650). Dow Transports need to get back over 4,000 (now 3,956) and the SOX need to hold 300 (now 310) or we may be heading for a very nasty fall next week. Hopefully it won't come to that but, meanwhile - let's continue to be very careful out there!

Have a nice weekend,

- Phil

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 20th November 2009

2009-11-19T23:45:00.001-05:00

Pivotfarm.com provides Support & Resistance, Fibonacci, Volume Analysis, Market Profile, Moving Average and Pivot Information for day traders. These data sheets are designed to help day traders gain an edge in the market, providing all the most important information a trader needs in one clear and concise data sheet.

Today's levels can be found by clicking here

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All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold PivotFarm and the owner / founder / writer of this information harmless in any and all ways. All rights reserved. The use of this website and or it's contents constitutes acceptance of our disclaimer.

Thrill Ride Thursday - CRE Crash?

2009-11-19T09:30:00.000-05:00

What a nice day we had yesterday!

I led off my morning post saying it was time to short the Dow, Copper, Oil and the Euro and anyone playing those futures bets off my 8:27 post made out like a bandit. I even posted a nice little DIA play FOR FREE (for those of you who can't be bothered to subscribe yet), picking the DIA $104 puts at .55. It only took 45 minutes for those puts to shoot up to .85 and I warned our Members to take it off the table on the way up and, since it was my free trade of the week, I also posted it over at Stock Talk on Seeking Alpha. This is a great way to follow-up on some of our trades and is also the back-up for our member chat whenever we have server issues so do make sure you are signed up to follow me there (just click on my picture).

Yes, I know that so many newsletter writers give you free trade ideas that make 54% in 45 minutes that it's hard to keep track so only do it if you REALLY want to. The futures, of course, make TONS more than that as they are heavily leveraged, As I said in yesterday's post, we have been trying to get more bullish but sometimes we just have to put our bearish foot down. In Member Chat we also took bullish pokes at EDZ, SRS, DIA $103 puts and ERY early in the morning and then we were able to just sit back and watch the dip. I was a penny early calling a bottom on copper at $3.12 but .05 on the futures contracts is a huge win and we are very nervous bears, especially on low volume days, and we take our profits quickly.

At 1:40, I said to members: "DIA - Well mission accomplished on the $103 puts and now we see what Mr. Stick can accomplish for the day. Without the RUT over 600 I have no desire to cover the March puts" and we even decided to go with the DIA $104 CALLS at 3:20 to protect us against the anticipated stick save. Those went from .65 to to .80 into the close, another very quick 20%. We don't do this all the time, these plays are fun to make during expiration week as the premiums are low and there are huge short-term rewards for good market timing. Our longer-term short play for the Dow was the DIA Dec $101 puts at $1.20 as well as our "usual" March put covers.

Today should be fun as we have lots of data, including the thing we fear most - the dreaded CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Leading Indicators, which is the sector we feel is most likely to lead to a second market crash (hence our fixation with SRS). After peaking at 120.2 in Q2 '07, the CRE index has fallen to 101.5 in Q2 of this year and anyone who owns a building that is worth 80% of what it was in Q2 '07 can raise their hands and then all three of them (if that) can go tank up the Hummer for the weekend as we celebrate the return of $3 gas, just in time for the holidays.

Of course we will lose another 500,000 jobs today but I've learned to ignore that number as it doesn't seem to bother the people buying stocks one bit (I'm pretty sure it bothers the people who get fired though) so it has become a non-factor - just like the way people no longer care how many other people are blown up by terrorist bombs every day in the news - people can get used to anything I guess....

So 500,000 job deaths are a given for the week and $80 oil doesn't seem to worry anyone and $1,150 gold wasn't worrying anyone, even though that's higher than the worst currency panics in the history of the World. That's why it's so darned hard to be a bear but also why we find it so darn hard to run with the bulls at these levels - other than the juvenile premise that we should buy stocks and commodities solely because there will be massive inflation, cash is toxic and the economy is so bad the government will stimulate even more - we really can't find a good upside investing premise.

That's OK though, as we can play that premise with TBT without violating our overall view of the economy that it will soon be impossible for the US to borrow money cheaply. Since we had a nice pullback on TBT this week (we last played it in early October) I can make this my 2nd free trade idea of the week to play TBT higher by buying the March $42 calls for $5.45 and selling the March $46 calls for $3.25, which is net $2.20 for a $4 spread (81% potential upside) that is currently $4.03 in the money. A rising dollar makes this trade cheaper so hopefully it can be picked up under $2.

I have mentioned our FXP play several times and the Hang Seng had a proper 200-point dip this morning, bouncing off the 22,600 line that was it's break-up point last week (last Thursday's chart levels are still valid). The Nikkei fell yet another 127 points, now down every single day since I called a top on the markets 2 weeks ago (had I made that call on Japan TV, I'd be a national hero now!). As usual, none of this bothers the Shanghai Composite, which continues it's death march back up the cliff to 400. When they break the 2008 high of 423.50 and get past 450, THEN we'll give up but, until then, this seems like a very nice shorting opportunity to scale into.

This big international bullish news this morning is the OECD doubling their 2010 growth forecast to 1.9% and up to 2.5% for 2011 "as China powers a global recovery." This would be so much more impressive if the OECD had any credibility but this statement from them is no different than your local chamber of commerce dropping a flyer in your mailbox telling you that this will be downtown's "Best Christmas Ever" so come on down and start shopping. “We now have numbers that support a recovery in motion,” Jorgen Elmeskov, the OECD’s acting chief economist, said in an interview. “It’s still a slow recovery because of considerable headwinds from the need to adjust the balance sheets of households, enterprises and financial sectors.”

Europe was not all that impressed by the OECD's nice noises and the FTSE is off about half a point to 5,315 (and 5,250 is failure) while the DAX is right on the 5,750 line, also down half a point and the CAC is riding right along the 3,800 mark. We'll be watching the DAX very closely today as they and the FTSE are the global swing indexes at the moment.

My level watches from yesterday still stand and we'll see what holds today but the CRE results at 10 along with Leading Economic Indicators accompanied by the circus side-show of Geithner testifying in front of a committee should keep this a very exciting day.

Why Doesn't the Revenues per Employee Ratio (R/E Ratio) Get More Respect?

2009-11-19T02:37:00.002-05:00

One obscure way of measuring how efficient a company operates is the amount or sales or revenues that are generated for each employee at the company, also known as the Revenues per Employee Ratio or R/E Ratio. It is also sometimes referred to as the Sales per Employee Ratio or S/E ratio. I've written about the R/E ratio in the past a couple times, but there doesn't appear to be much interest in this metric.

The concept is simple. Let's assume there are two companies in the same industry generating the exact same amount of revenues. But Company A has 1,000 employees and Company B has 10,000 employees. Which company do you think would generate higher net earnings? Which stock do you think would perform better?

Let's take some real life examples, using the technology sector. With only 19,665 employees and raking in $182.95 billion in revenues, Google (GOOG) is by far the top large cap tech company with the highest R/E ratio at $9,303,330 for every employee. And to top things off, the stock is up 79% so far this year. Apple (AAPL) is close behind with an R/E ratio of $5,408,163 and the stock is up an amazing 127% for the year. Then there is Amazon (AMZN) at $2,746,376 per employee. Amazon has a top return year-to-date of 142%.

Now let's look at some of the tech stocks that don't have as high an R/E ratio. Yahoo (YHOO) has a revenue per employee ratio far below the others at $1,646,323 and the stock was only up 24%. Both Dell (DELL) and IBM (IBM) generate almost identical revenues per employee at $410,000 and are up about 49% for the year; not even close to the returns for Apple or Amazon. And Hewlett Packard (HPQ) only has a R/E ratio of $372,866 and has the lower year-to-date return to show for it at 38%.

So next time you are trying to decide which stock you want to buy in a particular industry or sector, take a close look at the R/E ratio.

Author owns AAPL, AMZN, and YHOO.

By Fred Fuld at Stockerblog.com

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 19th November 2009

2009-11-18T23:28:00.001-05:00

Today's levels can be found by clicking here

The Greatest Traders

2009-11-18T16:10:00.002-05:00

What separates the 10% that make money from the 90% that don’t?

10,000 hours.

In his recent book ‘Outliers’ Malcolm Gladwell describes the 10,000-Hour Rule, claiming that the key to success in any cognitively complex field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours. 10,000 hours equates to around 4hrs a day for 10 years. For some reason most people that ‘try their hand’ at trading view it as a get rich quick scheme. That in a very short space of time, they will be able to turn $500 into $1 million! It is precisely this mindset that has resulted in the current economic mess, a bunch of 20-somethings being handed the red phone for financial weapons of mass destruction. The greatest traders understand that trading much like being a doctor, engineer or any other focused and technical endeavor requires time to develop and hone the skill set. Now you wouldn’t see a doctor performing open heart surgery after 3 months on a surgery simulator. Why would trading as a technical undertaking require less time.

Trading success, comes from screen time and experience, you have to put the hours in!

Education, education, education.

The old cliché touted by politicians when they can’t think of anything clever to say to their audience. The importance of education to success in trading cannot be placed on a high enough pedestal. You have to learn to earn, the best traders work obsessively to refine their edge further to stay ahead of the curve.

Think for yourself.

"NO! NO! NO!"... "Bear Stearns is not in trouble"..."Don't move your money from Bear! That's just silly! Don't be silly!"

A quote from well known stock guru Jim Cramer aired on CNBC days before Bear Stearns lost 90% of its value. Many followed this call and felt the obvious pain as a result. As the old saying goes, “too many cooks spoil the broth” it is very much the same in trading. Successful traders blinker themselves from the opinions of others; they focus on their own analysis of fundamental and technical information.

Adapt or Die.

Market conditions change and technology advances, thus the conditions for trading are always evolving, the rise in mechanical trading is testament to that. The very best traders through a process of education and adaptation are constantly staying ahead of the curve and creating ever new and ingenious methods to profit from the markets evolution.

Fail to plan, you plan to fail.

The best traders have a well documented plan; they know exactly what they are looking for and follow that plan to the letter. Their preparation for a trade starts long before the market open, it is this meticulous planning and importantly adherence to that plan that helps them avoid the biggest demons for any trader, over trading and revenge trading.

“Be like Machine”

As human beings emotions pay a key role in our existence, for a trader emotions can be a source of great pain. Trading psychology and the management of your emotions in a trade play a key role in overall success. Fear and greed can cut your winners short and let your losers run. Dealing with emotions follows on from your plan; the more robust your plan the less likely you are to fall into the emotional mine field.

Know your tools

Every trader has a set of tools they use, DOM, Charts, News feeds etc. These tools are a traders bread and butter; they are the most vital part of a traders arsenal, without which it would be impossible to trade. The best traders have mastered their order entry methodology, they know all about the features they need from their charts. This mastery of their tools, allows the trader to get the very best out of the resources they have available to them and ensures perfect execution of their trading ideas.

Know Thyself

Behind all the egos and excess, the best traders know their limitations; they focus on what can go wrong in a trade, and expend a lot of energy in limiting and controlling their risk before thinking about profits. They have a heightened sense of self-awareness and focus on incremental self improvement.

Profit & Loss

The best traders focus on the trade itself rather than the P&L; they view each trade as a technical exercise and focus on getting the most out of the market in accordance with their plan. They do not think in terms grocery payment, the electric bill and the desire to make X amount to cover a mortgage payment. Focusing on the money behind a trade can cloud technical objectivity.

In Conclusion

The greatest traders work hard to get ahead and even harder to stay ahead. Through increased and niche knowledge they constantly adapt with the market and remain profitable in every environment. Drive, tenacity and the will to succeed is the greatest edge of every successful trader.

Harvesting profits from the financial markets – www.pivotfarm.com

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 18th November 2009

2009-11-17T23:19:00.001-05:00

Today's levels can be found by clicking here

US Equity Markets at Crossroads -- A Quick Review

2009-11-17T21:21:00.000-05:00

My tonight's webinar is poted here:

https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp

A Thanksgiving Week for Dividends: Stocks Going Ex Dividend Next Week

2009-11-17T14:11:00.001-05:00

It's time to give thanks for dividends. Next week is Thanksgiving week, and surprisingly there are a lot of stocks going ex dividend during those days. There is a stock trading technique called 'Buying Dividends', which is becoming more and more popular. This is the process of buying stocks before the ex dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend. This technique generally works only in bull markets.

When you buy dividends, there are many stocks in many different sectors to choose from. In order to be entitled to the dividend, you have to buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, and you can't sell the stock until after the ex date. The actual dividend may not be paid for another few weeks. WallStreetNewsNetwork has compiled a free downloadable and sortable Excel list of the stocks going ex dividend during the next week or two. WSNN.com came up with many companies all with market caps over $500 million. Here are a couple examples showing the stock symbol, the ex-dividend date, the market capitalization, and the yield.

FPL Group, Inc. FPL ex div date: 11/24/2009 market cap: $21.4B yield: 3.6%

Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC ex div date: 11/25/2009 market cap: $15.9B yield: 3.5%

The Empire District Electric Company EDE ex div date: 11/27/2009 market cap: $626.7M yield: 7.0%

The rest of the ex-dividend stocks can be found at wsnn.com. (If you have been to the website before, and the latest link doesn't show up, you may have to empty your cache.) If you like dividend stocks, you should check out the high yield utility stocks and the Monthly Dividend Stocks at WallStreetNewsNetwork.com or WSNN.com. For more details on dividend definitions, check out definitions of dividend dates. Don't forget to reconfirm the ex-dividend date with the company before implementing this technique.

Author doesn't own any of the above.

By Stockerblog.com

Stock Market Trivia Quiz

2009-11-17T02:30:00.000-05:00

Think you know a lot about the stock market and investing? See if you can answer all the trivia questions on this quiz. The answers will be published tomorrow.

1. What was the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history (as of November 2009)?
a. Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc.
b. Washington Mutual
c. Worldcom, Inc.
d. General Motors
e. CIT Group
f. Enron Corp.
g. Conseco, Inc.
h. Chrysler
i. Thornburg Mortgage

2. Which of the following jobs did Warren Buffet have when he was young?
a. newspaper delivery boy
b. running a pinball machine business
c. stealing golf balls
d. all of the above

3. What is the oldest stock exchange in the United States?
a. Philadelphia Stock Exchange
b. New York Stock Exchange
c. Boston Stock Exchange
d. Pacific Coast Stock Exchange

4. What is the oldest commodities exchange in the U.S.?
a. Chicago Board of Trade
b.  Kansas City Board of Trade
c.  New York Cotton Exchange
d. New York Mercantile Exchange

5. The highest priced share of stock that ever traded was of what company?
a. Yahoo! Japan
b. Berkshire Hathaway
c. Indians Inc.
d. Mechanics Bank
e. Google

6. Who said, "An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest"?
a. Benjamin Franklin
b. Bernard Baruch
c. J.P Morgan
d. Warren Buffett

7. The country with the highest inflation rate last year (2008) was
a. Zimbabwe
b. Ethiopia
c. Venezuela
d. Guinea
e. Mongolia

8. On the day after every presidential election since 1896, what percentage of the time was the Dow Jones Industrial Average up for the day?
a. 48%
b. 76%
c. 23%
d. 81%

9. Which of the following companies are owned by Berkshire Hathaway?
a. Dairy Queen
b. World Book Encyclopedias
c. See’s Candies
d. GEICO
e. all of the above

10. Which of the following metals sells for the most amount per ounce (as of November 2009)?
a. rhodium
b. platinum
c. gold
d. palladium
e. silver

If you want more trivia, check out Investment Trivia and Stock Market Trivia.

By Stockerblog.com

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 17th November 2009

2009-11-16T23:46:00.001-05:00

Today's levels can be found by clicking here

How to Get Tax Free Dividends

2009-11-16T01:34:00.001-05:00

It's a great feeling to receive a lot of dividends throughout the year, then on the following April 15, realizing that you don't have to pay tax on any of that income. There are many stocks, which are primarily closed end funds or CEFs, which pay dividends that are tax free. This tax free income is generated from municipal bonds in the portfolio. Although many of the Canadian oil income trusts pay income that may be partially or completely tax deferred due to depletion and depreciation deductions, the tax free stocks that invest in munis usually generate dividends that are completely exempt from Federal taxes.

Municipal bonds are issued by states, counties, cities, and other governmental agencies. Income from these bonds is exempt from Federal income taxes, and if the bonds are issued in your state of residence, the income is exempt from state income taxes also. Municipal bonds issued by Puerto Rico and other U. S. dependencies are exempt from state income taxes also for residents of most states. There are over 200 different tax free income stocks according to WallStreetNewsNetwork.com, with 42 of them yielding 7% or more. Just be cautious about investing in extremely high yield muni CEFs which may use leverage to attain their high yields.

One of the highest yielding tax free stocks is Federated Premier Municipal Income Fund (FMN) which yields 7.8%. They have been paying monthly dividends since 2003.

For you New Yorkers, there is the BlackRock New York Municipal Income Trust (BNY) which pays 6.7%. It invests in New York education, hospitals, housing, pollution control, tobacco, transportation, and water and sewer bonds. It has paid quarterly dividends since 2001.

If you live in California, you might want to consider the Van Kampen California Value Municipal Income Trust (VCV) which yields 7.6%. They mostly invest in California investment grade municipals. The fund was founded in 1992 and pays dividends monthly.

Van Kampen also has a high yielder for Massachusetts residents, the Van Kampen Massachusetts Value Municipal Income Trust (VMV), which pays 6.8%. The fund invests in Massachusetts municipals including bonds for education, general purpose, and water and sewer. They have paid monthly dividends since 1995.

There is also their Van Kampen Pennsylvania Value Municipal Income Trust (VPV), which yields 7.0%. This holder of Pennsylvania municipal securities has been paying monthly dividends since 1995.

You can download a free Excel database spreadsheet list of over 200 tax free stocks at WSNN.com. Keep in mind that both yields and share prices fluctuate, and there is the possibility of bonds in the portfolios defaulting, as junk munis do exist, such as some 'dirt bonds' used to fund infrastructures of new housing developments (some of which never get built).

Author does not own any of the above.

By Stockerblog.com

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 16th November 2009

2009-11-16T00:27:00.001-05:00

Today's levels can be found by clicking here

Fast Movers: Stocks up 50% in a Month

2009-11-15T16:58:00.016-05:00

10 stocks rose more than 50% during the last month. In the beginning of their move, there was a catalyst driven liquidity expansion.

Announced that its main product performed better than expected on tests and new orders are coming.

Catalysts: on Nov 3th, SNIC announced a strategic alliance with Best Buy. 2 days later SNIC reported an EPS of 0.01 vs expectations for a loss of 5 cents per share.

Previously neglected stock, crushed all expectation on Oct. 29th, AH. REV reported Q3 EPS of .45 vs an estimate for a loss of (.16). This is huge surprise and this why REV was one of the few stocks that were rising in the end of October on the background of weak market. Revenue for the quarter was 326m vs 313m expectations.

On October 27th, AH, QTM EPS of 0.06 vs an estimate of 0.04. Revenue was 175m vs expectations for 164m. Favorable market reaction on the report, followed by a healthy correction to a rising 10dma and bounce from there fueled by several analysts' upgrades.

What a crazy move: from .70 to 4.40 in a week due to news of launching the world's first 16gb, 2 rank memory module. Stock are bought on expectations for potential future earnings. Apparently they were enough people, who believed that this company can be acquired soon or receive new contracts. It doesn't matter how much you think your stock is worth. If the market is willing to pay you $5, it is worth $5.

NANO is among the best performing stocks YTD. Announced several new contracts during the year. On Oct 29th it reported a Q3 EPS of .08, 14 cents better than the consensus estimate of (.06). Revenue was 25.8m vs est. of 21m. There has been huge interest in the stock lately, as noted by the price and volume action, due to new contract that the company announced on Thursday.

CYD is a Chinese diesel engine producer. On Nov 10th they reported EPS of .98 vs .16 in Q2 same year. They didn't compare to the results of the same quarter last year. As they admit, their report was unaudited. They sold less engines in Q3 compared to Q2 ( 115k vs 130k), but realized higher net income due to better margins. I am fascinated by the huge investors' interest in all Chinese stocks. I don't trust their unaudited reports and for me they are only good for a trade, but not for an investment. As traders say, only price pays and it doesn't matter if you make 50% in a Chinese or an American stock.

Previously neglected Chinese stock that acquired stake in several Chinese solar plants. I have no idea why, but starting middle October, there was huge demand for this stock.

In 2009 CAAS has been consistently beating analysts' earnings expectations and guided higher, therefore it wasn't a surprise when market participants started to buy the stock in expectation of another market surprise. They weren't disappointed and on Nov 12th, AH CAAS reported Q3 EPS of .28, which is 13 cents higher than the consensus estimate. Revenue for the quarter was 65m vs 53m expected. When a stock rises significantly in expectations of earnings, it means that the market is trying to price in the so called surprise and once the news is out, it often follows a sell off. In this case, CAAS is holding remarkably well, despite being remarkably extended.

Oct. 27th, AH: WSII reports Q3/09 EPS of .15 vs analysts' estimate of .11 and Q3/08 EPS of 0.08. Revenue for the quarter was 112.46 vs 112.1 expected.

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 13th November 2009

2009-11-12T22:39:00.001-05:00

Today's levels can be found by clicking here

Market Timing Webinar with Fari Hamzei

2009-11-12T18:21:00.002-05:00

This Saturday at Noon CDT

Join here https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/450469968

How To Buy Stocks at a 20% Discount from Current Price

2009-11-12T15:42:00.000-05:00

There are a couple ways of buying stocks at a discount to their present value. One way is by investing in closed end funds, also known as CEFs, that are trading at a discount from Net Asset Value, also known as NAV. The NAV is similar to the book value of stocks. In other words the NAV is calculated by adding up all the stocks in the portfolio, and dividing that amount by the number of shares.

A closed end fund is similar to a regular mutual fund except that the trading price of the CEFs can fluctuate way above or way below the NAV. In addition, the number of shares is fixed. There are over 20 closed end funds that are trading at a discount of over 20% of their net asset value. Many investors invest in these discounted CEFs in the hopes that the gap between NAV and price per share will close.

One example is Helios High Yield Fund Inc. (HHY), which is a closed-ended fixed income mutual fund managed by Brookfield Investment Management Inc. The fund yields 6.5% and a based on its current price, trades at about a 20% discount from its NAV of 8.34.

Another heavily discounted CEF is Liberty All Star Equity Fund (USA) is a closed-ended equity mutual fund managed by ALPS Advisers, Inc. which has a yield of 6.7% and trades at a discount of over 19% of NAV.

However, there are plenty of risks. First of all, that gap may exist for years, and can even widen. Second, the gap could theoretically close but the stocks in the portfolio could drop, so still not gain. Third, and probably most important, is that many CEFs hold illiquid, private, or non-trading stocks, and the NAV is based on how the company valuates those shares, which may be a much higher value than what they could get if they tried to dump those shares. In addition, some may own real estate or mortgages.

Occasionally, you see activist shareholders come in and buy up a significant amount of shares of heavily discounted CEFs and force the liquidation of those CEFs, in order to realize the Net Asset Value. WallStreetNewsNetwork.com has come up with a downloadable Excel database of over 35 CEFs trading at a discount of at least 17% to NAV. Before investing in any of these, check out the CEF's web site to see what kind of stocks they own, and how many are illiquid private shares.

By Stockerblog.com

UTEK - Ultratech Inc

2009-11-12T14:04:00.001-05:00

English-
Stock has bounced off support levels after recent pullback. Looking for a close above 13.45 to enter longs. Price target 16.00

Español-
La accion hace rebote en area de soporte despues de recente pullback. Se espera por cierres por encima de los 13.45 para entrar en largos. Objetivo 16.00

Less than $5 per Share, More than 4% Yield

2009-11-11T23:09:00.001-05:00

With the recent bullish move in the stock market, you would think that it would be impossible to find dividend paying stocks with yields greater that 4%, yet sell for less than five dollars a share. But here are a few examples:

Star Gas Partners, L.P. (SGU) market cap: $296.8M recent price: $3.57 yield: 6.92%

DCT Industrial Trust Inc. (DCT) market cap: $1.0B recent price: $1.0B $4.92 yield: 5.79%

GFI Group Inc. (GFIG) market cap: $583.9M recent price: $4.88 yield: 4.08%

If you like income stocks, you should take a look at the following articles:

290 Stocks That Pay Dividends Monthly

Stocks Going Ex Dividend the Third Week of November

What Biotech Stock Yields Over 12% and Sells for Less Than $10 per Share?

Author does not own any of the above.

By Stockerblog.com

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 12th November 2009

2009-11-11T21:56:00.001-05:00

Today's levels can be found by clicking here

PQ - Petroquest Energy

2009-11-11T08:36:00.000-05:00

English-
PQ - turning higher after bounce on support levels, recent downtrend line on pullback breaks to upside..target 8.00

Español-
PQ - alcista despues de rebote en soportes, ruptura de linea bajista recente..objetivo 8.00

Goldman's Global Oil Scam Passes the 50 Madoff Mark!

2009-11-11T06:44:00.001-05:00

$2.5 Trillion - That's the size of of the global oil scam.

It's a number so large that, to put it in perspective, we will now begin measuring the damage done to the global economy in Madoff units ($50Bn rip-offs). That's right - $2.5Tn is 50 TIMES the amount of money that Bernie Madoff scammed from investors in his lifetime, yet it is also LESS than the MONTHLY EXCESS price the global population is being manipulated into paying for a barrel of oil.

Where is the outrage? Where are the investigations?

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BP, TOT, Shell, DB and Societe General founded the Intercontinental Exchange in 2000. ICE is an online commodities and futures marketplace. It is outside the US and operates free from the constraints of US laws. The exchange was set up to facilitate "dark pool" trading in the commodities markets. Billions of dollars are being placed on oil futures contracts at the ICE and the beauty of this scam is that they NEVER take delivery, per se. They just ratchet up the price with leveraged speculation using your TARP money. This year alone they ratcheted up the global cost of oil from $40 to $80 per barrel.

A Congressional investigation into energy trading in 2003 discovered that ICE was being used to facilitate "round-trip" trades. Round-trip'' trades occur when one firm sells energy to another and then the second firm simultaneously sells the same amount of energy back to the first company at exactly the same price. No commodity ever changes hands. But when done on an exchange, these transactions send a price signal to the market and they artificially boost revenue for the company. This is nothing more than a massive fraud, pure and simple.

"Traders of the the ICE core membership (GS, MS, BP, DB, RDS.A, GLE & TOT) wouldn't really have to put much money at risk by their standards in order to move or support the global market price via the BFOE market. Indeed the evolution of the Brent market has been a response to declining production and the fact that traders could not resist manipulating the market by buying up contracts and “squeezing” those who had sold oil they did not have. The fewer cargoes produced, the easier the underlying market is to manipulate." - Chris Cook, Former Director of the International Petroleum Exchange, which was bought by ICE.

How widespread are ``round-trip'' trades? The Congressional Research Service looked at trading patterns in the energy sector and this is what they reported: This pattern of trading suggests a market environment in which a significant volume of fictitious trading could have taken place. Yet since most of the trading is unregulated by the Government, we have only a slim idea of the illusion being perpetrated in the energy sector.

DMS Energy, when investigated by Congress, admitted that 80 percent of its trades in 2001 were ``round-trip'' trades. That means 80 percent of all of their trades that year were bogus trades where no commodity changed hands, and yet the balance sheets reflect added revenue. Remember, these trades are sham deals where nothing was exchanged. Duke Energy disclosed that $1.1 billion worth of trades were ``round-trip'' since 1999. Roughly two-thirds of these were done on the InterContinental Exchange; that is, the online, nonregulated, nonaudited, nonoversight for manipulation and fraud entity run by banks in this country. That means thousands of subscribers would see false pricing. Under investigation, a lawyer for J.P. Morgan Chase admitted the bank engineered a series of ``round-trip'' trades with Enron.

You can chart the damage done by Goldman Sachs and their gang of thieves by by looking at commodity pricing pre and post ICE. Before ICE, commodities followed a more or less normal growth path that matched global GDP and was always limited in price appreciation by the fact that, ultimately, someone had to take delivery of a physical commodity at a set price.

ICE threw that concept out the window and turned commodity trading into a speculative casino game where pricing was notional and contracts could be sold by people who never produced a thing, to people who didn't need the things that were not produced. And in just 5 years after commencing operations, Goldman Sachs and their partners managed to TRIPLE the price of commodities.

Goldman Sachs Commodity Index funds accounted for $60Bn out of $100Bn of all formula-managed funds in 2007 and investors in the GSCI lost 15% in 2006 while Goldman had a record year. John Dizard, of the Financial Times calls this process "date rape" by Goldman Sachs as the funds index rolls cost investors 150 basis points of return annually ($9Bn on the Goldman funds) but GS, under the prospectus, is able to "manage our corresponding position," which means that it has to deliver a price at the end of the roll period. If Goldman can cover that obligation at a better price, they will, and GS pockets the difference. This is why we see such wild moves in the day's before rollover, there are Billions riding on GS hitting their target every month...

It is not surprising that a commodity scam would be the cornerstone of Goldman Sach's strategy. CEO Lloyd Blankfein, rose to the top through Goldman's commodity trading arm J Aron, starting his career at J Aron before Goldman Sachs bought them over 25 years ago. With his colleague Gary Cohn, Blankfein oversaw the key energy trading portfolio. According to Chris Cook: "It appears clear that BP and Goldman Sachs have been working collaboratively – at least at a strategic level - for maybe 15 years now. Their trading strategy has evolved over time as the global market has developed and become ever more financialised. Moreover, they have been well placed to steer the development of the key global energy market trading platform, and the legal and regulatory framework within which it operates." According to Cook:

It appears to me that what has been occurring in the oil market may have been that – through the intermediation of the likes of J Aron in the Brent complex – long term funds have been lending money to producers – effectively interest-free - and in return the producers have been lending oil to the funds. This works well for as long as funds flow into the market, or do not withdraw in quantity, but once funds withdraw money from the market, there is a sudden collapse in price.

A combination of market hype, the opacity of the Brent Complex and the relatively small scale of trading of the benchmark BFOE crude oil contract enabled the long run up in prices, and several observers believe that the dramatic spike to $147.00 per barrel was the specific outcome of the collapse of SemGroup, which that company's management subsequently blamed mainly on Goldman Sachs.

Mike Riess issued a study of "Modern Market Manipulation" in which he describes how GS, MS, DB et al have systematically created an environment that rewards those who manipulate the system, robbing the poor to send the money up they company ladder in exchange for record bonus payouts, which (by design) are the majority of their traders' salaries:

Before the ‘80’s, there were just us traders. "Rogue" traders arrived on the scene with the large institutional participants, both private and public. Today’s companies and government marketing boards are large enough for senior management to distance itself from controversy, including market manipulation.

In a competitive, amoral environment, middle managers in these mega-organizations have the authority to hijack an institution’s reputation and the financial clout to manipulate the market—and they do. As long as they succeed, they enjoy promotions and perks and, sometimes, the fruits of embezzlement. If the manipulation unravels, the company denies any knowledge and hangs the rogue out to dry. We’ve seen this over and over again, most recently with D’Avila and Codelco, Hamanaka and Sumitomo, Leeson and Barings and Tsuda and Daiwa Bank.

The CFTC’s definition of manipulation is:

A planned operation that causes or maintains an artificial price

Unusually large purchases or sales in a short period of time in order to distort prices

Putting out false information in order to distort prices.

In mid-2008 it was estimated that some $260 billion was invested in the Brent energy markets on the ICE while the value of the oil actually coming out of the North Sea each month, at maybe $4 to $5 billion at most. NYMEX trading follows a similar path with 258,000, 1,000-barrel contracts open for December delivery (258M barrels), which were traded 327,000 times yesterday alone yet, at the end of the period, less than 40M barrels of oil will actually be delivered as that is the total capacity at Cushing, OK - where NYMEX contract deliveries are settled. Every single one of those traders know it is not even possible for 80% of the contracts they are trading to be fulfilled - its a joke, but the joke is on YOU!

Over the course of an average month at the NYMEX, 5 BILLION barrels of oil will be traded, with a fee being collected on every single transaction which is ultimately passed down to US consumers, yet less than 40M barrels will actually be delivered. That is just 8 tenths of 1 percent of actual demand for the product that is being traded - 99.2% of the oil transaction fees being paid by the American people do nothing more than create fees for the traders and record profits and bonuses for the trading firms!

Index Speculators have now stockpiled, via the futures market, the equivalent of 1.1 billion barrels of petroleum, effectively adding eight times as much oil to their own stockpile as the United States has added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the last five years. Today, in many commodities futures markets, they are the single largest force. The huge growth in their demand has gone virtually undetected by classically-trained economists who almost never analyze demand in futures markets. As money pours into the markets, two things happen concurrently: the markets expand and prices rise. One particularly troubling aspect of Index Speculator demand is that it actually increases the more prices increase. This explains the accelerating rate at which commodity futures prices (and actual commodity prices) are increasing.

Before ICE, the average American family spent 7% of their income on food and fuel. Last year, that number topped 20%. That's 13% of the incomes of every man, woman and child in the United States of America, over $1Tn EVERY SINGLE YEAR, stolen through market manipulation. On a global scale, that number is over $4Tn per year - 80 Madoffs! Why is there no outrage, why are there no investingations. Well the answer is the same - $4Tn per year buys you a lot of political clout, it pays to have politicians all over the world look the other way while GS and their merry men rob from the poor and give to the rich on such a vast scale that it's hard to grasp the damage they have done and continue to do to the global economy.

CIBC Chief Economist, Jeff Rubin issued a report last year that blames the current recession on high oil prices, saying defaulting mortgages are only a symptom. According to Rubin, these higher oil prices caused Japan and the Eurozone to enter into a recession even before the most recent financial problems hit. Higher oil prices started four of the last five world recessions; we shouldn't be too surprised if they started this one also:

Oil shocks create global recessions by transferring billions of dollars of income from economies where consumers spend every cent they have, and then some, to economies that sport the highest savings rates in the world. While those petro-dollars may get recycled back to Wall Street by sovereign wealth fund investments, they don’t all get recycled back into world demand. The leakage, as income is transferred to countries with savings rates as high as 50%, is what makes this income transfer far from demand neutral.

There is NO shortage of oil. OPEC alone has 6-7 Million barrels a day of spare capacity, more than the total disruption of any single country and any two countries other than Saudi Arabia could offset. Additionaly ICE partners Total and JPM are part of the cartel that is totally skewing the global demand picture by storing 125M barrels of oil in offshore tankers. That's 15 days of US imports that have been "ordered" but never delivered so they show up as an extra 1Mbd of global demand, even though nobody actually wants them. Land-based storage is also bursting at the seems, with global supplies up to 61 days of total consumption (84Mbd) up from 52 days last year.

That's 5 BILLION barrels of oil already out of the ground, in barrels and ready to go AND THEY KEEP MAKING 86M MORE EVERY DAY!!! Where is the shortage? Mainly, it is media hype pushed by "analysts" at the very firms that profit the most from high oil prices. Goldman Sachs issues bullish opinions on oil and builds large positions in oil, while it is the cartel's job to hide oil in off shore tankers, and then sell forward all the oil, with futures contracts, locking in the high price. Of course they have their media hounds as well, most notably the Drudge Report. As noted by Goldmansachsrules:

Type in the word "OIL" inside the "Drudge Report" search engine. It returns 1,965 headlines with the word "OIL." Over the last couple years, The Drudge Report has ran 1,965 headlines with the word "OIL." Most of these articles were hosted by the worthless organizations of Yahoo, Breibart, APNews, and Reuters. The Drudge Report just creates the headline, and links it the article hosted by who ever is doing the "hyping."

Search on the word "credit crisis" and you only get 12 archived headlines. The word "bailout" yields only 268. The word "bank" returns only 568. So you have the Drudge Report hyping the oil market, because they bring it up almost 2,000 times. Unlike the "credit crisis" or "Wall Street Bailout" that actual did happen, the oil market and what did/didn't happen between Israel/Iran is plugged 10 times more!

Of all the 1,965 articles that the Drudge Report ran with the word "OIL" in the title, most were hyping the oil market. The most notorious cases, a few times a week, were hosted by Yahoo, Breibart, and AP News. Most of these articles were plugged with the same paragraph that stated if "Israel were to attack Iran, Iran would retaliate by taking over the straits of Hormuz, the largest pathway for oil and we all know what that would do to the price of oil.

It truly takes a global village of manipulators and their lackeys to pull off a con on the scale of oil but it's also the most profitable scam ever perpetrated on the people of this planet as they take control of a vital resource and then create artificial shortages and drive speculative demand in order to charge you an extra dollar per gallon of gas. You don't complain because it's "only" $15-$20 every time you fill up your tank, but that's what they count on and that's where you're wrong - it's $20 from you and $20 from EVERY SINGLE ONE of your customers once or twice a week and $20 more dollars your employees need just to get to work. It's money that could be going into your business instead of a new gold bathtub for a Saudi Prince or a Goldman trader.

Global drivers consume 1.7Bn gallons of gas every single day, that $1 is $50Bn a month, a Madoff per month that is being taken away from YOU and YOUR business and the non-energy/financial businesses you invest in. Of course we can give up and invest in those sectors (we do) but that doesn't do much for the global economy and, even as you sit here now, not doing anything, those oil and profits have been plowed into the copper and gold markets and now the same Goldman energy cartel is bidding to take over you clean air (through Carbon Credit trading) and your clean water.

Maybe when they are charging you $80 a gallon for water and ten cents a breath you'll want to do something about it. I think I'll start right now and you can too! Here is the Email address and Fax numbers for all of yor Senators, Congresspeople and Governors. Send this article to them and let them know you'd like to see an investigation. Take a few minutes of your time to save a few bucks on your next gallon of water!

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 11th November 2009

2009-11-10T21:46:00.001-05:00

Today's levels can be found by clicking here