TribeScribe

Opening Day!

2008-03-31T10:53:00.000-07:00

(11:00 am PDT - Pregame warmup) Tigers and Royals are the only game going so far. Here are a few early trends I'd like to see continue: Ivan Rodriguez is 0-1 throwing out runners trying to steal, Miguel Cabrera is 0-2 at the plate and 0-1 on throws to first. One I'd like to jinx: Justin Verlander is throwing a perfect game to Royals without excess consonants in their name; Grudzielanek has reached base on an error and a HBP.

(11:13 am) And Billy Butler singles to break up the no-no just three batters after my jinx. Not bad!

(11:21 am) Am I the only one that thinks Jacque Jones and Edgar Renteria will not be upgrades for the Tigers? Jones should never face lefties and wasn't even good against RHPs last year. Today? 0 for 2 with 2 K's against RH Gil Meche. Renteria's defense has been deteriorating and his last tour of duty in the AL was so disastrous the Red Sox dumped him for Alex Gonzalez.

(11:46 am) Then again, will it matter? Verlander has cruised through 5, Cabrera hit his first HR as a Tiger, and 12 Tigers have reached base against Meche so far.

(11:48 am) Rain is delaying the start of the Brewers-Cubs game in Wrigley. I suspect the Indians game will suffer a similar fate.

(12:05 pm) So Gordon deposits a Verlander sinker into the RF seats to bring the Royals within a run. Then Verlander promptly allows the first two batters in the 7th to reach, and Leyland calls for Jason Grilli. Here is where the fun begins - with no Rodney or Zumaya in the pen, can the Tigers build a bridge to Todd Jones?

(12:10 pm) Guess not... John Buck greets Grilli with a run-scoring single.

(12:13 pm) Say it ain't so, Thome! Jim just crushed one into the Davey Tree Pavilion/Heritage Park (at least, that's how I imagine it). Perhaps my favorite Indian ever gives an inauspicious start to the Tribe's season.

(12:31 pm) After two pitching changes, Tiger-killer Mark Grudzielanek (seriously, check his career numbers)singled home the go-ahead run. And Royals stopper(!?!) Brett Tomko induced a DP grounder from Ordonez and blew a fastball by Miguel Cabrera to finish the 7th.

(12:35 pm) Consecutive singles by Victor, Garko and Peralta have loaded the bases for Azzie Cabrera. And even though he hits into the forceout, give credit to him for coaxing 8 pitches out of Buehrle and driving in the run.

(12:40 pm) And Gutey homers onto the porch in left-center! 4-2, Tribe! I would love to see Franklin blossom this year and put to rest all the rumblings about our inadequate corner OFs.

(12:45 pm) Carlos Guillen homers off Tomko and order is restored to the world. No truth to the rumor that the Fed was ready to step in and buy the Tigers some relievers to prevent a total collapse of confidence in the punditry market.

(12:45 pm) Grady homers! Glory be to Grady!

(12:49 pm) Hafner doubles home Michaels and Victor brings Pronk in with a single. Take that, Tigers! (I know we're playing the White Sox, but doesn't it feel like every game this season is really against the Tigers? Is March 31 too early to begin scoreboard-watching?)

(2:31 pm) OK, I should be more careful with my schadenfreude over the Tigers bullpen. Looks like we have some problems of our own, though I have to wonder why Wedgie let Perez face both Konerko and Dye with two runners on. Should have brought in Betancourt then.

(2:36 pm) How about a better stretching program for Victor now that he's suffered leg injuries on two consecutive Opening Days? Hopefully this isn't serious and won't keep him out of the lineup too long.

(2:43 pm) What is this strange, small-sample-size power that Nick Masset has over the Tribe? In 17 IP against Cleveland, he has a 3.18 ERA with 12 Ks and 5 walks. Against everyone else in his career, his numbers are 35.2, 7.32, 17 and 23.

(2:58 pm) Tense moments in Cleveland: Raffy loads the bases, then gets Cabrera to hit into a forceout. He's thrown a lot of pitches, but do you turn to recent pickup (and rookie) Craig Breslow to face Thome? My guess is no.

(3:00 pm) 4-6-3 to get out of the jam. Could we see Kobayashi to start the ninth? Only if the Tribe can't take a lead against Dotel.

(3:12 pm) Casey plates three with a double, and there is joy in Mudville. Meanwhile, Jason Michaels gets a rare AB against a righty. J-Mike thinks he should be an everyday player; a hit here would be a step toward proving it.

(3:18 pm ) Here comes JoeBo in the best possible save situation - up by three and facing a string of right-handed hitters. He gets Konerko to quickly ground out.

(3:23 pm) Classic Borowski. Gives up the HR to Dye, walks Pierzynski to bring up the tying run, then mercifully retire Crede on seven pitches. Tribe wins!

This Should Be Fun!

2008-02-12T12:50:00.000-08:00

After spending his entire career in the Senior Circuit, Livan Hernandez is coming to the American League. Hernandez, the wrongful winner of the 1997 World Series MVP (f@*king J**e M**a!), signed a one-year deal with the Minnesota Twins.

Thanks to the miracle of interleague play, Hernandez is no stranger to AL hitters. In over 1100 plate appearances against him, AL hitters have hit .306/.373/.468 - essentially turning each into the 2006-2007 version of Mike Lowell.

A fly-ball pitcher in recent seasons, Hernandez will be helped by the move from hitter-friendly Chase Field to the inaccurately-nicknamed "Homerdome" but he shouldn't expect more help from the Twins outfield defense. Torii Hunter is gone and the Twins have publicly floated the idea of playing Michael Cuddyer in CF this season.

David Dellucci, Jason Michaels and Jamey Carroll are the only current Indians to have faced Hernandez, compiling a .360/.429/.480 line in 28 PA. With 18 games against the Twins this year, the Tribe should have ample opportunity to introduce themselves.

The Two Joes

2007-09-05T21:17:00.000-07:00

Joe Borowski earned his AL-leading 40th save Tuesday night in the Indians' 138th game, on pace to tie or break Jose Mesa's club record of 46 saves set in 1995. He's also a virtual lock for a more dubious honor - the worst 40-save season ever.

Prior to this year, Antonio Alfonseca had posted the highest ERA in a 40-save season. El Pulpo gave up 4.24 earnies per nine while saving 45 games for the 2000 Marlins. Barring a sudden bout of unhittability, JoeBo will blow that out of the water.

And yet, Borowski has been strangely effective. His save percentage (87%) compares favorably to elite closers Francisco Rodriguez (87%), Trevor Hoffman (88%) and Mariano Rivera (88%). While 12 of his saves are of the one-inning, ahead-by-three variety, Borowski hasn't exactly been spared from pressure. According to Baseball Prospectus, no AL pitcher with more than 7 relief innings has been used in higher leverage situations than Borowski. But, oh, that ERA! How can one reconcile his historically bad ERA with the fact that Eric Wedge trusts this man in pressure situations? Simple - the Theory of the Two Joes.

Iron Joe Borowski has appeared in 52 games, saving 38 and winning 3 with an ERA of 2.52 in 50 IP. Glass Joe Borowski has appeared in 7 games, saving 2 and losing 3 with an ERA of 31.76 in 5-2/3 IP. Iron Joe has held hitters to a composite line of .237/.287/.317 over 186 AB. Hitters have pummeled Glass Joe to the tune of .575/.578/1.000 in 40 AB.

Borowski's split personality may be due to his unhinged right shoulder. The Indians' playoff fortunes may hinge on whether Borowski can punch out Glass Joe once and for all.

Snyder Move Opens Door to Playoff Roster

2007-08-31T09:52:00.000-07:00

The Indians promoted Brad Snyder from Buffalo and promptly placed him on the Major League 15-Day Disabled List. The move opens the door for someone not currently on the Tribe's 25-man roster to make the playoff roster.

Major League rules limit eligibility for the playoffs to players on a team's 25-man roster or Major League DL as of August 31. However, the rules also permit a team to replace an injured player with another player from the team's 40-man roster when compiling the playoff roster.

By promoting and disabling Snyder, Mark Shapiro retains the option of "replacing" him later with demoted lefties Cliff Lee or Jeremy Sowers, or possibly top prospect Adam Miller, who has been working out of the pen recently in Buffalo.

F***ing Yankees

2007-08-16T12:28:00.000-07:00

Fucking Yankees, Reports Nation

BOSTON—Moments after the New York Yankees continued a month-long stretch that has seen them climb from the bottom of the AL East to pull within a once unfathomable four games of the first-place Red Sox by defeating the Baltimore Orioles...

See Ya, C-Lee!

2007-07-27T12:51:00.000-07:00

The Tribe optioned Cliff Lee to Buffalo today following his miserable start against Boston, recalling reliever Edward "The Mooj" Mujica. Mujica's stay will likely be a short one. Cliff Lee's next start was scheduled for August 1 against Texas. If by then the Indians haven't acquired one of the several relievers (Dotel, Lidge, Gagne) that they are reportedly in on, the Mooj will make way for Aaron Laffey's major-league debut.

Laffey is a 22-year-old control left-hander that I'd like a little better if he missed more bats. His K's per 9 and K-to-BB numbers between Akron and Buffalo this season are comparable to what a 22-year-old Jeremy Sowers did in 2005 at both levels. It's possible that Laffey could provide the Tribe a boost like Sowers did last season, but I wouldn't bet Adam Miller's elbow on it.

Hello, K-Lo!

2007-07-27T11:08:00.000-07:00

The Plain Dealer reports that the Tribe has brought back Kenny Lofton for his third tour of duty in Cleveland. The Indians, who originally acquired Lofton from Houston for 23-year-old catcher Eddie Taubensee, reportedly dealt 22-year-old catcher Max Ramirez to Texas for the still-speedy Lofton.

Lofton will likely platoon with Jason Michaels in LF, replacing the injured David Dellucci. Lofton is still a dangerous hitter against right-handed pitchers and should be a valuable on-base threat at the top of the lineup. In 1071 plate appearances against RHP over the past three years, he has an OPS of .833 with 99 walks and only 87 strikeouts.

Ramirez came to Cleveland last July 20 from the Braves organization as the bounty for Bob Wickman. In 114 games with the Tribe's Hi-A and Lo-A affiliates, Ramirez proved himself a capable hitter, posting an admirable combined line of .304/.423/.493 in 404 AB. He represented the Tribe in the All-Star Futures Game this year, doubling and scoring a run for the World Team.

Though no move has been announced, the Indians will likely either option Ben Francisco to Buffalo or designate Trot Nixon for assignment to make room on the 25-man roster for Lofton. Francisco has also been rumored to be headed to Kansas City in a deal for Octavio Dotel.

All-Star Game LiveBlog

2007-07-10T18:51:00.000-07:00

6:51 - Rodriguez and Reyes have stolen bases tonight, A-Rod off the LHP Cole Hamels. Something tells me that the pitchers aren't doing much to hold the runners and keep them honest. Since Hamels and Dan Haren don't have any experience working with their respective catchers, I doubt they have many signs worked out.

6:57 - A-Rod missed his Pete Rose moment there, electing not to bowl over Russ Martin and forever alter his career a la Ray Fosse. Too bad for the millions of fans looking for another reason to hate him.

7:04 - Extremely tiresome to hear Joe Buck and Tim McCarver apologize for Barry Bonds, saying they are "happy to have him here" and "he deserves to be here".

7:12 - All the deserving Indians made it to SF this year, but Victor Martinez should really have been the starter at catcher - not 3rd in line behind Pudge and Posada.

7:15 - Ichiro rounds the bases faster than Eric Byrnes' dog can paddle off into the Bay.

7:20 - Carsten Charles Sabathia takes the mound and promptly retires Utley on three pitches. Crawford makes up for a late jump with a nice running catch for out number two.

7:23 - The leadoff hitters, Reyes and Suzuki, have been the stars so far, hitting a combined 6-for-6 with 2 runs, 2 RBI with a double, steal and inside-the park HR.

7:27 - Could the dugout interviews with Leyland and LaRussa be any more boring? I wish Fox would stop treating the game like an interruption to their program.

7:31 - Coco Cordero replaces Chris "Last Man" Young, after Young blew the lead in the fifth. Another CC, Carl Crawford, makes LaRussa pay for this decision by taking Cordero out to deep right. Looking like the NL drought will extend to 11 years.

7:34 - "This one counts" should just be changed to "This one reinforces the notion that the AL is the superior league". Not very catchy, though.

7:37 - ESPN Page 2 noted that the AL's combined payroll is more than twice that of the NL. This could be a sign that the NL has younger talent that has yet to capitalize on the big free agent dollars, which would be optimistic for the NL if that same talent wasn't inevitably going to sign with the Yankees and Red Sox.

7:41 - Leyland joked earlier that he wished he could pitch J.J. Putz for six innings in advance of the Tigers series with Seattle. Any chance he can use Verlander for 150 pitches instead?

7:45 - Seeing Griffey play right in this game makes me wonder if Mark Shapiro could pry him away from the Reds. He's signed through next year to a very affordable deal unlike Adam Dunn, who can be a free agent at the end of the season. How about Jeremy Sowers, Brian Barton and Scott Lewis for Griffey, Scott Hatteberg and David Weathers?

7:49 - Just heard Joe Buck say "he couldn't fit mine in his pocket, it's so big". Glad to hear he's talking about his scorecard, not cornholing Bruce Froemming.

7:52 - All of America is waiting for Paula Cole's keybooad player to reboot. Will this finally put to rest the obnoxious tradition of singing "God Bless America" instead of "Take Me Out to the Ballgame"?

7:54 - Paula Cole beats the hell out of Ronan Tynan, though. Reflective and wistful rendition, not martial.

7:58 - Grady Sizemore enters the game, playing out of position in RF. If he ends up tearing ligaments in his ankle running over the bullpen mound, I say it's a conspiracy by Leyland.

8:01 - Santana is working fast to Soriano, getting him to strike out looking. Johan would have been my choice to start the game, if only to see him face Bonds in the first.

8:06 - Grady swings at a fastball high and tight to become the AL's first strikeout victim. Victor homers over the left-field wall to sew this one up for the AL.

8:36 - Two boring half-innings come to a close with a groundout to Freddy "Dirty" Sanchez. If Leyland is true to his word, a Putz should finish the ninth.

8:42 - Everyone knows McCann can't move a rubber tree plant, but he's got high hopes... and he pops out to short. Dmitri Young wouldn't be in this game if it weren't for quotas. One player from each franchise, I mean.

8:53 - What is it about defensive miscues that cause a pitcher to lose focus? After Roberts' non-error, Putz suddenly went to a three ball count on Soriano before giving up the HR, then walked Hardy on five pitches. It's like he no longer believed in his dominant closer persona. Maybe he should have stroked his billy goat beard a few times.

8:57 - Wouldn't you rather have Albert Pujols at the plate in this situation, not Derrek Lee? Why has baseball's best hitter spent the whole game on the bench? I thought this one "counted".

9:01 - Hudson just walked, the bases are loaded in the bottom of the ninth, Soriano can move to CF if needed -- and LaRussa still lets Rowand bat with Pujols on the bench. I think LaRussa is just giving his star the day off. So much for all his pre-game bluster about the "embarrassment" of the NL losing streak. Pitiful.

9:05 - Go Tribe!

David Ortiz Says Manny Ramirez is a Crazy Motherfucker

2007-04-24T11:20:00.000-07:00

Not that Indians fans needed further evidence of this. If you haven't read this piece in the New Yorker by Ben McGrath, you may be surprised to learn that Manny has named his two sons Manny Jr. and... Manny Jr.

McGrath also mentions Manny's bizarre barbecue grill auction on eBay and photos of him partying with college girls. This reminds me of a story that a friend from Boston told me of the girl that Manny picked up in a local bar. When they got back to his place, which according to McGrath is a suite at the Ritz-Carlton, Manny asked her to do some ironing for him.

My lasting memory of Manny will always be the homer he hit in his last game as an Indian. I was in attendance, and as Manny strode to the plate for what we realized would be his last at bat, the crowd rose in a spontaneous ovation. Maybe we thought we could persuade him to stay, but like so many Cleveland icons he would ultimately disappoint us. Not on this day, however. Manny responded by driving a pitch from John Frascatore into the Davey Tree Pavilion beyond the centerfield fence. The moment still gives me chills.

Pronk Sets Single-Season Slam Record

2006-07-07T17:09:00.000-07:00

With his 2nd-inning blast off Kris Benson tonight, Travis Hafner has set an Indians single-season record for grand slams. Already his fifth slam of the year, the homer eclipses Al Rosen's record of four set in 1951. The major league record is six, set by Don Mattingly in 1987.

All-Time Team of Indians All-Stars Who Didn't Get To Play

2006-07-06T12:52:00.000-07:00

With Travis Hafner about to be snubbed for the second year in a row, I thought I would re-post this Theme Team from my SABR e-mail list. Bruce Brown e-mails these daily from reader contributions, most frequently from Scott Brandon.

Another gem from Scott Brandon of Layton, Utah, a well-known suburb of Cleveland, Ohio. He tells us, "These players were all elected or named to the AL All-Star team, but never played in the Mid-Summer Classic as Indians. Bagby was named twice and did not play either time. Cullenbine, Ferrell, Finley, Grant, Harrah, Justice, LaRoche, Orta, Perry, Rosar and Sutcliffe made it into the game in other years while playing for other teams, but their time as Indians All-Stars was spent on the bench. Al Milnar played only one career game in LF, but with the pitching corps well-stocked already, he takes a spot in the field. Ferrell, the career home run leader among pitchers, gets the nod as pinch-hitter, a position he filled over 200 times during his career. Harrah was the only member of the team to have managed in the Majors, so he pulls double duty as player/manager."

1b - TITO FRANCONA (1961)
2b - JORGE ORTA (1980)
3b - ROY CULLENBINE (1944)
SS - TOBY HARRAH (1982)
C - BUDDY ROSAR (1943)
LF - AL MILNAR (1940)
CF - ORIS HOCKETT (1944)
RF - DAVID JUSTICE (1997)
PH - WES FERRELL (1933)

Pitching
RH - ORAL HILDEBRAND (1933)
RH - RICK SUTCLIFFE (1983)
RH - JIM PERRY (1961)
LH - JACK KRALICK (1964)
LH - CHUCK FINLEY (2000)
RP - MUDCAT GRANT (1963)
RP - SID MONGE (1979)
RP - JIM BAGBY, JR. (1942-43)
Closer - DAVE LaROCHE (1976)

Mgr - TOBY HARRAH (1982)

Honorable Mention
STEVE HARGAN (1967)
BARRY LATMAN (1961)
KEN SCHROM (1986)
AL SMITH (1943)
DICK STIGMAN (1960)
JAKE WESTBROOK (2004)

ALL CAPS = All-Star (by definition)

Miller, Sizemore Rated Top Tribe Prospects

2005-01-19T10:27:00.000-08:00

Adam Miller ranked second among all pitchers and Grady Sizemore placed 17th among hitters in John Sickels' forthcoming The Baseball Prospect Book 2005. The Indians' farm system placed seven prospects on Sickels' two lists, second only to the eight Athletics who received rankings.

Also ranked among Sickels' Top 50 Hitters were Tribe farmhands Michael Aubrey (22nd), Franklin Gutierrez (33rd), Brad Snyder (34th) and Ryan Garko (41st). Fernando Cabrera (46th) was the only Tribe pitcher besides Miller to crack the Top 50 Pitchers.

Mark Shapiro Explains It All

2004-12-15T09:39:00.000-08:00

TribeScribe was able to get an inordinate number of questions answered in a recent online chat with Mark Shapiro at Indians.com. Here is a transcript (non-Tribescribe questions deleted):

TribeScribe: Dave Littlefield described the Matt Lawton deal as a trade of relative strengths. As the roster stands right now, do you consider OF to be a position of strength in 2005?

Shapiro: Outfield is a position of depth for us. Especially once we get Gerut back. Because of youth of Sizemore and Crisp, I would not yet consider it a position of strengh -- rather depth.

TribeScribe: In what role will Jason Davis ultimately provide the most value to the Indians - starter or closer?

Shapiro: That is a good question. One in which we have some internal difference of opinion. I think more people feel his greatest feeling is in the bullpen. Time will tell.

TribeScribe: With the signing of Jose Hernandez, Brandon Phillips seems slated once again for Buffalo. What improvements did he make last year and what will he have to show in spring training and during the season to make the majors for good?

Shapiro: This is not preordained that Brandon will go to Buffalo. Johnny Perolta will get the first shot at spring training. But Brandon will battle him. Brandon needs to have consistent, disciplined at-bats. Once he does that we feel his potential in the middle infield is very high.

TribeScribe: Ryan Garko posted nice numbers in Arizona this fall. Do you see him as an eventual major-league regular or more of a 1b/dh/c guy like Matt LeCroy?

Shapiro: Matt LeCroy is a guy that we have compared Ryan to. With the effort he is giving on his defensive side of the game he can make himself into an everyday catcher or first baseman.

TribeScribe: After a fast professional start, Jeremy Guthrie's development seems to have hit a wall. What are the biggest challenges he faces in trying to win a big-league bullpen job this spring?

Shapiro: Jeremy actually finished strong last year. We felt good about the progress he made. He needs to maintain a consistent delivery. That will allow his above average stuff to translate consistently.

TribeScribe: What will Aaron Boone bring to the third base position that Casey Blake did not?

Shapiro: It is not about what Aaron will bring that Casey did not. It is about making us a better team. We are a better team with both Casey and Aaron playing. Aaron Boone will bring experience, leadership, well above average defense, and good offense. We are excited about his addition.

TribeScribe: Excellent pick up for Johnny Mac - how does Tom Mastny project as a potential major-league arm?

Shapiro: We love his feel to pitch and his command. He also has prototypical pitcher size and thus has great Having completed only one A ball season, it is still too early to determine his role or ceiling. But we are excited to have him.

TribeScribe: Grady Sizemore struggled against lefties last summer. What adjustments does he need to make to earn PT in more than a platoon role?

Shapiro: Grady has always hit lefties well in the minor leagues. i think it is more of a matter of settling in to the major leagues. His talent and track record will ultimatly make him much more than a platoon player.

TribeScribe: How has Franklin Gutierrez looked in winter ball?

Shapiro: Our reports have been very good. it is difficult to gauge his accomplishments down there due to inconsistent level of competition. it is great to see franklin playing every day and putting up some good numbers. we are excited to have him playing every day next year in our system.

TribeScribe:If Wickman's elbow blows, who is next in line to close? Howry?

Shapiro: He is a guy that has both closing experience and at times last year was dominant and appeared ready to resume that role. while we have other guys that could contribute as a closer he is the most likely alternative to Wicky.

BoSox Claim Traber Off Waivers

2004-11-10T14:26:00.000-08:00

Billy Traber, memorable to this Tribe fan for his near-perfect game against the Yankees in 2003, was claimed off outright waivers today by the Boston Red Sox. He had spent the entire 2004 season on the 60-day DL, rehabilitating from off-season elbow surgery.

Acquired from the Mets in December 2001, Traber and Alex Escobar were the principal prospects received in the Roberto Alomar trade. The Tribe also received Matt Lawton, Earl Snyder and Jerrod Riggan in the deal. Only Matt Lawton remains with the Indians.

Victor Martinez Wins Silver Slugger Award

2004-11-03T14:38:00.000-08:00

Victor Martinez was announced as the 2004 Winner of the Silver Slugger Award as the best-hitting catcher in the American League. Martinez shares the award with seven-time recipient Ivan Rodriguez of the Detroit Tigers.

Rodriguez was clearly the class of AL catchers this season. Pudge led all AL catchers in OPS, Equivalent Average, Value over Replacement Player and Runs above Replacement Player while Victor finished 4th or 5th in each category. Surprisingly, Martinez received more votes than last year's award winners Jorge Posada (Yankees) and Javy Lopez (Orioles). Lopez, Posada and Jason Varitek all had comparable or better offensive numbers in 2004.

Still there is no denying Martinez' incredible breakout performance. Only 25, Victor led the majors in HR and RBI in games played as a catcher. With all the other top catchers on the wrong side of 30, Victor should add a few more Silver Sluggers to his wall in the near future.

Ron Belliard, 29, 2b-3b

2004-01-14T20:39:00.000-08:00

Belliard was signed by the Tribe to a one-year, one-million-dollar deal to man the keystone in 2004 until Brandon Phillips shows he is ready to assume the mantle. As recently as the spring of 2002, Belliard was considered a poor man's Ray Durham, just a step below Robbie Alomar and Jeff Kent in the second base hierarchy. And it was deserved - after all, in 2001 Belliard slugged .453 with 44 extra-base hits in just 364 AB while playing above-average defense . Then came a disastrous 2002 in which he posted a .544 OPS and struck out 2.5 times more often than he walked.

Belliard rebounded in 2003 playing second for the Rockies but his stats were significantly better in the cozy confines of Coors Field (.892 OPS home vs. 656 OPS road). Many Rockies hitters have shown similar split personalities but it remains to be seen whether Belliard will emulate Andres Galarraga or Jeff Cirillo when he returns to sea level. His K/BB ratio has increased from 1:1 to 1.5:1 or greater in the last three seasons after showing very good control of the strike zone his first two seasons.

Roger Brown of the Plain Dealer stopped just short of calling him a fat-ass in his column last month, prompting some Indians fans to already dub him Ronnie "Beer" Belly-ard. It's true that his reported playing weight last season was 197, up from 180 in his rookie year. But numbers never tell the whole story so I e-mailed Carlos Lugo, the TV voice of the Estrellas de Oriente ballclub and author of the Dominican Winter League Report over at Baseball Prospectus, to get a first-hand account. Here are a few of his observations:

"He does have a few excess pounds, but I won't call it "very overweight". Of
course, Belliard is not very tall and "a few excess pounds" it's definitely
something undesirable, and I would say that weight problems and a deterioration
of his strike zone judgment have stalled his career."

"He played a few games early in the
season at second, but as soon as D'Angelo Jimenez was ready to play defense, he
moved to third base, where I think he played decently, considering the fact that
third base is not his natural position. Curiously, during the playoffs, I would
say Belliard has played "brilliantly" at third base, showing very good range to
his left, looking great on back-hand plays to his right and slow grounders and
bunts, and also good footwork."

"Right now his swing is looking atrocious, as he's
trying to uppercut every single pitch, and hitting popup after popup as a
result. The few times he has changed the approach, and tried to level the swing
and hit the ball to the ground, or a line drive, he's been much better."

Though Mark Shapiro has touted Belliard's ability to play short as well as second and third, it's worth noting that his major-league experience at short consists of one game in 1999. Belliard rates as a slightly below-average defender at second base by most metrics (despite an excellent range factor in 2003) and based on Lugo's testimony, he appears to have the reflexes to play third well. Belliard was reportedly the Indians' second choice after Todd Walker, for whom Shapiro was ready to bust the budget.

My first choice would have been Adam Kennedy had he been non-tendered by the Angels. But since Kennedy re-upped with the Halos, I would have preferred Pokey Reese over Belliard or Walker. Providing a strong infield defense is critical to developing the confidence of our young pitchers and Reese was the best defender available. Plus, he signed with the Red Sox for the same terms as Belliard. As a one season placeholder though, I think the Tribe did well with Belliard. Despite his conditioning issues, he has a strong offensive upside and can play league-average defense at two positions.

Often Imitated, Never Equaled

2004-01-14T19:48:00.000-08:00

A recent Google search on "tribescribe" turned up this impostor. On a separate page, there are promises of an online edition "Coming Soon". Don't be fooled! This is still the genuine TribeScribe, the only source for my somewhat infrequent musings on the state of the Cleveland Indians.

Sure, they have a staff of 16 writers and an advisor. I can't deny that I'm feeling the heat to churn out more and better content. But I'm confident that my reader(s?) will still turn to me for quality writing, unmatched insight and timely analysis. Unless of course my reader(s?) want to know what's been happening at J.J. Kelly High School in Wise, Virginia. Let me send a shout out to all the Young Dems there. First lesson, kids: never let your name get put on a list like this. Karl Rove is watching!

DMB Picks Tribe as Sleeper in 2004

2003-12-19T00:57:00.000-08:00

Just read the following on the Diamond Mind Baseball website:

If any team has a chance to come out of the pack and challenge for a division title, it might be the Indians. Because the Tribe was near average in efficiency and only four games shy of their pythagorean record, they're not all that similar to the '02 Cubs. But Cleveland's TBW and run differentials weren't all that bad for a team that was giving some young players a lot of valuable experience, and there are no powerhouse teams in the division to contend with.

Read the full article here.

Tribe Signs Westbrook

2003-12-16T12:59:00.000-08:00

ESPN.com is reporting that the Indians have signed Jake Westbrook to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration. Terms of the deal have not yet been reported. The deal was presaged by comments Eric Wedge made to the Beacon Journal indicating that Westbrook was in the running for the fourth or fifth starter job.

The 26-year-old righthander pitched a career-high 133 innings last year while surrendering only 9 HR in those 133 IP and holding hitters to a .394 slugging percentage. Westbrook posted career lows in K/9IP (3.93) and K/BB (1.04) however, boding ill for his chances at long-term success.

Outing the Productive Out: Has ESPN Unlocked the Secret of Post-Season Success?

2003-12-02T01:23:00.000-08:00

Did anyone else see this quote from Buster Olney's November 25 piece on ESPN.com?

There have been 142 post-season series since 1969. In 129, one team or another has had an advantage in Plate Appearances -- and in 63.6 percent of those 129 series, the team with the advantage in Plate Appearances has prevailed. Factor in the 13 series in which opposing teams have tied in Plate Appearances, and it can be said that teams with a deficit in PAs have won just 33.1 percent of post-season series.

Prior to this season, no team since the 1997 Florida Marlins had won the World Series with a deficit in this statistic.

OK, I'm fibbing a bit. This isn't actually a quote. I've replaced the term "Productive Outs" in Olney's original column with "Plate Appearances" and recalculated his numbers based on PAs instead of POs.*

"Why?", you might reasonably ask. Because Olney's article makes the claim that teams that play "small-ball" are proportionately more successful in the playoffs than teams that emphasize walks and slugging (read: the A's) because their offense is more "diversified". The way Olney and Elias Sports Bureau purport to measure this is the painfully contrived statistic "Productive Outs":

"This is the Productive Out, as defined and developed by ESPN The Magazine and the Elias Sports Bureau: when a fly ball, grounder or bunt advances a runner with nobody out; when a pitcher bunts to advance a runner with one out (maximizing the effectiveness of the pitcher's at-bat), or when a grounder or fly ball scores a run with one out."

What makes this ridiculous is that by Olney's own methods, Productive Outs are not the best indicator of post-season success nor even a particularly good one. Unsurprisingly, runs scored was the best indicator of the series winner in my study; in 112 of 142 series, the winner held an advantage in runs scored. It stands to reason then that a team holding an advantage in any statistic that positively correlates to run production will have better odds of being the series winner. In Olney's article, Steve Hirdt of Elias acknowledges this with regard to home runs. However the point of my Folger's Crystals-like substitution of Plate Appearances for Productive Outs is that even a "run-neutral" stat such as PAs shows a stronger correlation than POs with winning post-season series. Check out the following table:

Advantage held by:	Series Winner	Series Loser	Neither
Runs	78.9%	17.6%	3.5%
Home Runs	61.3%	26.1%	12.7%
Plate Appearances*	57.7%	33.1%	9.2%
Productive Outs	57.0%	34.5%	8.5%
Walks	56.3%	35.9%	7.7%

Productive Outs should enjoy an advantage over Plate Appearances because certain run-scoring outs (fly-balls and ground-balls with one out) are included by definition, while unproductive outs are carved away. Plate appearances as a statistic says nothing about what happened during the PA. Why then are the percentages so close for the two stats? I think the answer is that both are a byproduct of another statistic that positively correlates to run production - namely, runners on base. As Olney concedes, an offense can't generate a Productive Out without baserunners to move over. The more baserunners an offense generates, the more Plate Appearances it accumulates, the more runs it scores and the more series it wins. If this is the case, then On-Base Percentage should show a strong correlation to winning post-season series. Let's run the numbers again:

Advantage held by:	Series Winner	Series Loser	Neither
OPS (OBP + SLG)	73.2%	26.8%	0.0%
On-Base Percentage	72.5%	26.8%	0.7%
Slugging Percentage	71.8%	26.8%	1.4%
Productive Outs	57.0%	34.5%	8.5%

OBP, Slugging and OPS all show a much stronger relationship than Productive Outs to post-season series winners. 73.2% of post-season series winners enjoyed an advantage over their opponent in OPS. The A's emphasis on OBP, not simply walks as Olney states, is redeemed by the 103 of 142 series winners that posted higher OBPs than the losers.

The lesson to be learned here is not that Productive Outs play no role in winning post-season series. They most certainly do, especially in late-inning tied or one-run games. The lesson to be learned is that if you go to all the trouble of inventing a new stat to support your argument, be sure it says what you meant it to before breathlessly unveiling it to a skeptical public.

*Actually, total PAs by team for each postseason series were not shown in the otherwise magnificent Baseball-Reference.com database, so I substituted AB+W. For purposes of narrative clarity, I have called these "Plate Appearances" above. Sorry to mislead you.

Update

2003-12-01T10:36:00.000-08:00

Sources close to the A's tell me that their impression is that "Bard is not their top target" as a young catcher to acquire. Chad Moeller was mentioned in Susan Slusser's article as another option, though he really can't be considered young anymore. (He'll be 29 in February, a year older than Hernandez and three years older than Bard.)

However, Moeller was just acquired by Milwaukee as part of the Richie Sexson trade. He is currently the only catcher on the Brewers roster, with both Eddie Perez and Keith Osik filing for free agency. Maybe the A's interest in Bard just rekindled?

Feckless Fick at First? Forget It.

2003-11-28T18:25:00.000-08:00

In his November 26th column, Roger Brown of the Plain Dealer lobbied for the Tribe to sign Robert Fick as a "proven first baseman offering more offensive consistency than Travis Hafner and Ben Broussard". Why, you ask, would the Indians be interested in a man that was outhit by 44-year-old Julio Franco?

"Word is," says Brown, the "past All-Star ... is interested in signing with the Indians." Should we be flattered? This is a player who ranked 21st among NL first basemen in OPS, below the likes of Eric Karros, Tino Martinez and Sean Casey. Fick had a season almost identical to Broussard, yet he is nearly three years older and his salary was three times larger. He also bats left-handed, so there is no platoon advantage to be gained. His catching days are over, limiting him to 1B, OF and DH. The Tribe has an abundance of better alternatives at these positions. So why, Roger, should the Indians sign Fick?

"For one," says Brown, "Fick liked playing for current Indians bench coach Buddy Bell when Bell managed Detroit in 1998." Putting aside the fact that Fick played a total of 7 games for the Tigers in 1998 (likely all for Larry Parrish after Bell was fired), the greater question should be, "Should Mark Shapiro try to reassemble the powerhouse '98 Tigers?" If the answer is yes, the agents for Deivi Cruz and Damion Easley are awaiting Shapiro's call.

Bard to Athletics?

2003-11-28T16:37:00.000-08:00

Now that the Mark Kotsay/Ramon Hernandez deal has been completed the A's are targeting a young catcher like Josh Bard, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. And Bard might be available. Victor Martinez seems ready to start at catcher next year and Tim Laker recently signed a major-league contract for 2004 to serve as Martinez' backup. This seemingly leaves Bard as the odd man out.

Mark Shapiro has said that a top priority this off-season will be to acquire an inexpensive second baseman to hold the position until Brandon Phillips is ready. The A's might be a good match for Cleveland, as they have a 26-year-old second baseman with excellent on-base skills sitting in AAA just waiting for an opportunity. Esteban German, who was once considered the 2B of the Future for the A's, has been surpassed by Mark Ellis in the eyes of top brass and might be available for Bard. He has excellent speed and could fit nicely atop the Indians lineup in 2004.

2003-11-24T03:01:00.000-08:00

The TribeScribe Archives are now working properly. More content coming soon ...

2003-10-07T14:05:00.000-07:00

"I wanted to see how he was doing, I wanted to hold his hand, I wanted to go back there and tell him little boy stuff like keep your head up," Jackson said. "It was totally scary. This guy is lying there unconscious, this is not the way it's supposed to go down."

-- Former Indian Damian Jackson after colliding with teammate Johnny Damon in Game 5 of the ALDS