Mining Gold Stocks

Nov 4th: USD, HUI, GOLD Charts

2008-11-04T09:05:00.000-08:00

The US Dollar Index continues to correct after being in oversold territory. Whether or not this is just consolidation is still a matter of debate. Fundamentally, limitless monetary expansion and years of debasing their currency is pitted against potential continuing liquidation and "flight to safety" in the form of the USD.

At least one writer believes that technically speaking, the USD still has a ways to climb. Jack Chan of http://www.simplyprofits.org/ writes that:

The US dollar is on buy signals both short and long term.
Technically speaking, dollar is very strong but sentiment is still quite bearish, which bodes well for further strength on the dollar thus pressuring prices on "things."

Meanwhile, the HUI still has a ways to go before hitting against 50 day resistance.

Shows that gold stocks are correcting from a severely undervalued position relative to the underlying precious metal

Continuing HUI + Gold + US Dollar Watch

2008-10-29T16:40:00.000-07:00

On the heels of a half a percent interest rate cut by the Fed, the USD finally took a breather as commodity markets rallied from deeply oversold levels. A correction to 80, however, would still preserve the upward trend of the USD.

Gold did manage to break through the important $750 level but was met with resistance at the $775 level. Those hoping for an explosive move up today given the interest rate cut and USD weakness would probably view this as somewhat bittersweet. Gold can retrace back up to the high $700, low $800 mark and still be within the context of a falling trend.

The HUI for the second straight day faired much better than the underlying commodity as investors speculate on relatively bargain basement-priced gold stocks. Relative is they key word here, however, because gold seems to still be stuck in an undecided state.

Gold, Hui, US Dollar: Okay, Now What?

2008-10-28T15:38:00.000-07:00

Gold is attempting to slow its descent and carve out a bottom.

A look closer at the last 24 hours in gold trading reveals considerable resistance at the $750 mark that is providing a stiff test. This was the same level that held back on Sep 15th and must be breached convincingly.

Along with the general relief rally today, the HUI looks to be rebounding towards the multi-year lows of 2004 and 2005. Can it break through?

Gold stocks are not surprisingly acting as stocks and are trading well below their relative price to the precious metal, and this charts helps to explain why the HUI soared today with the gold price going sideways.

And finally, the all important US Dollar. Is this the beginning of the end or a short breather before it resumes its march upwards?

I'm not sure if anybody out there really knows how much deleveraging is left to be done, how many more carry trades to be unwound. The massive monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve has yet to translate into inflation even as banks are prodded to lend, and in fact, deflation has become the vogue term of choice. Currency intervention is being weighed and Bretton Woods II is around the corner in mid-November. We may be at a mini-crossroads here.

John Embry, Sprott Asset Management on BNN Oct 21st

2008-10-26T14:10:00.000-07:00

BNN: People who say gold really should be doing better now than it is now becomes the justification for not buying: it is not doing what it should be doing in price so I should not be owning it.

JOHN EMBRY: That is a wonderful analysis because that is exactly that they guys who are driving the price down want to create, that is the mindset they are creating: it doesn’t work so keep away from it. They are able to control price easily in paper market as the paper markets are so huge in relation, and the guys in the central banks and their accomplices have lots of power and money, so they can overwhelm other side. But what’s happening is that the physical supply is diminishing dramatically. It is getting harder and harder to purchase gold and silver through traditional avenues. You can’t get it in coin shops. You can’t get it through banks. It is getting really, really constricted in supply. That to me is reality; the paper is just illusion.

BNN: Now the problem for investors is that paper market affects the price. How will that resolve?

JOHN EMBRY: What will have to happen is that the people who are on the long side of the paper market, say on COMEX, are going to have to call for delivery. When they call for delivery and there is not enough gold to meet those who call for delivery, the game changes.

BNN: Why don’t they do that?

JOHN EMBRY: That is an excellent question, I think we’re close. I think that that is probably going to be the event that changes perception. It may be the December contract, there is the suggestion that something may happen around the time of maturity of that contract.

BNN: Would you expect them to do that out of fear, in other words, they literally want to take delivery so that they will have gold in their vaults?

JOHN EMBRY: I would think that that would be the best reason for the simple reason that physical gold is the one thing you can trust. Paper gold, who knows, you may have a force majeure, in the sense that people in the end will settle for paper but won’t have the protection of gold. You may get money’s worth but you will have paper. That to me is the reason why I think somebody’s going to say: wait a minute, I want the gold.

BNN: In that transaction, will a lot of people be crushed by that trade? Are there are lot of people who are short this market?

JOHN EMBRY: Without question the people who are short this market, I think there will be a force majeure. They will have to settle in paper, because they can’t meet the requirements of gold and that to me will be the seminal event that defines the whole situation.

CHARTS OF THE DAY

Gold continues to hover around the $730 mark as of Sunday. A close above this mark would be more reassuring in the short-term.

Is the US Dollar going parabolic? The US Dollar Index seems to be breaking out of its existing trendline that started back in mid-July.

Predictions of Gold Price

2008-10-20T23:32:00.000-07:00

Feb 5, 2008 CITIGROUP $900/oz avg 2008, $950/oz avg 2009, $1000/oz avg 2010
Feb 12 MERRILL LYNCH $925/oz avg 2008, $1000/oz avg 2009
Feb 27 ROYAL BANK CM >$1000/oz upcoming months, may retreat mid-$800s summer
Mar 26 PETER MARRONE, CEO YAMANA GOLD $1500/oz in 1 year
April 7 DEUTSCHE BANK $981/oz 2008, $1100/oz avg 2009
September 18 JOHN HILL, CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS average $950 2009, $1000 2010
September 21 AFSHIN NABAVI MKS FINANCE: "We are heading for $1,000 again."
Oct 15 JP MOGRAN: $904 2008, $875 2009
Oct 22 TD NEWCREST: $850 2009, $900 2010 and 2011, $800 after
October 27, 2008 BARRY COOPER, CIBC WORLD MARKETS: $875 in 2008, $900 in 2009

Paul van Eeden, on Bailout, Banks, Bonds, Gold

2008-09-22T17:31:00.000-07:00

The solution on the table is not a total solution, it is stop-gap measure..Fed is bumping money into the financial system, and also swapping low-quality assets for high-quality assets, that’s going to help, but not solving problem . There are two problems not being addressed: the first and root problem is that debt and risk have been mispriced for many many years. There is nothing against giving someone a mortage on a house that it cannot afford but if you are doing it at 4% interest rate with 2% teaser for the first two years, then you are stupid. Now you may want to do it at 25% interest because if you do it enough you may make money..the second thing it doesn't address is the decline in quality and value of bank assets means that bank equity is being wiped out at an alarming rate. Bank liabilities are primarily deposit accounts to about 70-75% and the rest is borrowed money. Now the value of the liabilities are not declining but the value of the assets are declining..equity gets wiped out pronto..there is nothing in the current proposal that is putting new equity in the banks. Until new equity in the banks and until risk is priced properly, the problem is far from being solved.

My personal opinion is that interest rates are going to rise over the course of the next ten years. Interest rates peaked 1980-1981, fallen last 26-28 years. I think the next decade trade is short US bonds. If you look at true monetary inflation, US average 8%. The dollar is losing value and purchasing power at exactly that rate. Yet the 30-year bond yield is barely over 4% and the T-bill is under ½ percent. And the solution of the problem is ultimately going to come with money expansion. Ben Bernanke is one of the foremost students of the Great Depression and he is on record over and over saying that we will not go through a deflationary depression. But what the Fed is doing now is trying to bail the banks out by deflating the money supply. The Treasury will sell $100 billion bonds and give it to the Fed, sucking it out of the market and not in the money supply. The Treasury assistance program for the Fed is deflationary. I do not see how they can solve the problem with trickle of deflation. It’s going to be very hard. I suspect sooner or later we are going to see return to more inflationary solution and you are going to see a repricing of risk, much high interest rates, and that’s the time when gold will start performing better.

Ross Healy, chairman and CEO, Strategic Analysis Corp on Goldcorp

2008-04-06T16:51:00.000-07:00

BNN March 26

GOLDCORP (NYSE:GG TSE:G): it is our main exposure to gold, although we bought position in middle of last year so our cost base quite a bit below what it is currently. There is room in portfolios for exposure to gold in one fashion or another for many good reasons, whether as hedge to declining US currency but also fundamental demand for metal, whether coming from expanding economies as people get wealthier and so on. But let us face it, gold has hit $1000 level mark, that is a high level mark, it is a commodity that took 23 years to get to previous high. If economic outlook got a lot brighter from a financial point of view, I do not know if gold will go to $1500-2000 or back down to $700 but I do know that Goldcorp has got some very good properties and some very good production increases coming onstream in the next couple of years and from that point of view you are pretty well protected.

GOLCORP VITALS
Closing Price April 4, 2008 $40.80Cdn
52-Week Range: $22.40-45.89Cdn
# of Shares Outstanding: 709 million
Quoted Market Value: $28.9 billion Cdn
% Institution Owned: 51.58%
Most Recent MD&A Mar 2008 download HERE

1yr technical chart

Ross Healy, chairman and CEO, Strategic Analysis Corp on Kinross Gold

2008-04-06T16:41:00.000-07:00

BNN March 26

KINROSS GOLD: (NYSE:KGC TSE:K) certainly Kinross has been closer to valuation parameters. Gold stocks are difficult at best from a value point of view to look at. What we look at when we look for a gold company is known production profile going forward, trying to get estimate on what the current outlook on capital expenditure to bring that into production is going to be because that is where biggest inflation is happening in the mining industry today, and our relative preference for GOLDCORP over KINROSS is because lower cost producer and reserves and little bit richer.

KINROSS GOLD VITALS
Closing Price April 4, 2008 $23.60Cdn
52-Week Range: $10.58-27.16Cdn
# of Shares Outstanding: 614 million
Quoted Market Value: $14.5 billion Cdn
% Institution Owned: 60.66%
Most Recent MD&A Mar 2008 download HERE

1 yr technical chart

Ross Healy, chairman and CEO, Strategic Analysis Corporation on Yamana Gold

2008-04-02T19:27:00.000-07:00

BNN March 26

YAMANA GOLD: (NYSE:AUY TSE:YRI) I do not know anything specifically to cause decline other than recent results year-end and production a little bit below expectations, I think, and their forecast over next year increase to 1.3 million oz per year, pushed farther out to as to where they would get to 2 million oz per year level, suspect relative to other golds that is what is affecting Yamana.

YAMANA GOLD VITALS
Closing Price April 2, 2008 $14.80Cdn
52-Week Range: $9.05-19.79Cdn
# of Shares Outstanding: 626 million
Quoted Market Value: $9.27 billion Cdn
% Institution Owned: 55.99%
Most Recent MD&A Mar 2008 download HERE

1yr Yamana Technical Chart

Ross Healy, chairman and CEO, Strategic Analysis Corp on Barrick Gold

2008-04-02T19:15:00.000-07:00

March 26 BNN

BARRICK GOLD (NYSE:ABX TSE:ABX): lots of upside potential. Excellent balance sheet, extremely well-run company, kind of thing that value investor likes. I am staying with it, lots of Barrick everywhere. Costs under fairly reasonable control, certainly can go to the street and ask what they think of the costs because definitely earnings forecasts rising nicely and with it fair market value. They have three new mines coming on-stream, more going in pipeline, put it together, not a bad place to park your money. And if you do not like US dollar, where do you go to counter except gold and gold stocks. We have just bought it and bought it.

BARRICK GOLD VITALS
Closing Price April 2nd, 2008: $44.42Cdn
52-Week Range: $29.74-54.11Cdn
# of Shares Outstanding: 871 million
Quoted Market Value: $38.7 billion Cdn
% Institution Owned: 67.96%
Most Recent MD&A Mar 2008 download HERE

1yr ABX Technical Chart

Peter Marrone, Chairman & CEO Yamana Gold

2008-03-31T23:49:00.000-07:00

BNN March 26

On Q4 Earnings
I would not describe as payment delays as much as it just happens to be way that provisional payments are made under offtake agreement contracts in the ordinary course with our Chipata mine and the production of concentrate. What we showed in our press release is an additional payment if you assume current commodity prices of about $30 million that would come this quarter rather than last quarter. But it relates to concentrate at that mine that was produced and sold last quarter..this is really a consensus is assuming a simplification of what is happening from the point of view of these contracts. In the ordinary course it will adjust itself but on a quarter by quarter basis we will have variations

Hedging the Brazilian Real
The real today is about 1.70-1.75 to $1 US. We hedged last year at 2.3 real to dollar about 85% of real-dominated cost of Brazilian mine. We will periodically look at it to see whether or not we should hedge currency to protect our cost structure. In our guidance in January we assumed 1.9 real this year and next year, we are very close to that today.

Growth
It is important for gold mining company to look at growth at multitude of different ways, one clearly is cash flow and earnings. On a quarter by quarter basis it would be difficult to show every quarter that there is growth. But if you look by trend line we have consistently shown a growth in our earnings and cash flow on a year by year basis. Part of that goes to in the ground resources and production growth. Last year all of our mines produced about a million ozs on accumulated basis, we did not own them for all of the year. This year we intend to produce 1.3 million and next year 1.6 million equivalent ozs.

On Gold
I have consistently said that we are in perfect storm for commodity prices staying strong and for precious metal prices in particular to get stronger than where they were. Last year when gold was in range of $650 per oz my view was that in 2008 it would get to $1000 per oz..I think there is room for further growth in precious metal prices so I think they are likely to increase for all the reasons mentioned: supply and demand where there is increasing demand from developing parts of the world growing at very fast paces, where supply is dwindling and large producers are experiencing negative rather than positive growth. And then perfect storm of other events, with inflationary pressures in the world, with financial crisis that we saw only up to last week and continue to see in US and other parts of the world, usually good for precious metals and I think it will continue to show that gold and silver prices will continue to get stronger. I am confident that within a year we can see gold at $1500 per oz

Jean-Francois Tardif, senior portfolio manager, Sprott Asset Management on CEE

2008-03-30T19:12:00.000-07:00

BNN Monday March 24, 2008

CENTAMIN EGYPT (TSE:CEE): stock that I still own. Gold project about 10 million ounces resource so far, they are building the mine as we speak, expectation to produce before end of this year, eventually 200,000 oz per year run rate, already a plan to increase to 400,000 oz per year in 2009, 2010. But also drilling, almost every quarter since I have owned this stock they have added to resource base 600,000 to 750,000 oz per quarter. Last year cost $7 per oz to discover, cost up but still very cheap to discover gold in Egypt. For people who like gold, this is core holding..

CENTAMIN EGYPT VITALS

Closing Price March 25, 2008: $1.40Cdn

52-Week Range: $0.87-1.60Cdn

# of Shares Outstanding: 880 million

Quoted Market Value: $1.23 billion Cdn

Most Recent MD&A Mar 2008 download HERE

6mo Technical Chart

Jean-Francois Tardif, senior portfolio manager, Sprott Asset Management on ARU

2008-03-30T18:35:00.000-07:00

BNN Monday March 24, 2008

AURELIAN RESOURCES (TSE:ARU): gold is up significantly from August $650 to $1000 now pullback to $910 and the stock is barely up. The stocks that really went up were very large ones: Barrick, Kinross. Very few went up. People stayed away from non-producer, Aurelian is not producing yet but it has the best future mine. It has 13 million ozs in the ground, not proven but as a resource and they are drilling more and will find more. Only issue is Ecuador, political issues but my understanding at Sprott we had many meetings, we feel confident—could make a mistake—but we feel that political will be fine. This asset is worth multiple of what it is trading eventually…we bought all over the map, cannot tell you average cost. If I did not own it today, would buy, think it is core gold position.

AURELIAN RESOURCES VITALS
Closing Price March 25, 2008: $9.22Cdn
52-Week Range: $5.55-10.23Cdn
# of Shares Outstanding: 135 million
Quoted Market Value: $1.24 billion Cdn
% Institution Owned: 49.8%
Most Recent MD&A Mar 2008 download HERE

1yr Technical Chart

Tye Burst president & CEO KINROSS GOLD

2008-03-26T16:20:00.000-07:00

BNN March 26, 2008

Gold Price Drivers
volatility in global markets, gold up strongly, our stock up strongly over last year, offered opportunity to take profits to offset other losses. Best reports from trading floor are that some profit-taking in the metal and in our stock; of course both recovered yesterday, gold up 2% our stock up 9%. It is volatile times but gold price fundamentally has lots of room to move up. Historically gold price has moved in opposition to US dollar, seen by investors as sort of hedge against falling US dollar. The fundamental driving factors for gold price are supply and demand and US dollar. For the US dollar to strengthen we have to see credit crisis resolve and see lack of underlying inflation and today we have food price and commodity price inflation. So those factors seem to suggest continued near-term weakness in US dollar.

Supply and Demand
On demand side population growth and jewellery use, the long-term fundamentals remain good. Short-term though if you have spike in gold that tends to reduce short-term jewellery orders as manufacturers respond to higher price. However history shows that those buyers will come back into the market with weakness so again long-term fundamentals for demand side remain strong. On supply side, of course Kinross one of the largest gold producers in the world, that is the side we know most about, we see continued global shortages on production side, tough to bring new mines onstream these days, Kinross a bit different than that, strong growth profile over next two years with three to four new projects starting up. Fundamentals for gold price: on demand side, continued strong with occasional dips, on supply side, continued weakness.

New Projects
Delivering these projects on-time and on-budget is our core mantra this year. We have new project in Brazil, Washington State and Russia, starting Q2, 3 and 4 this year. That will take our production up 60% between now and 2009. We are pleased about progress of these projects that will mean strong production in strong price environment which bodes well with stock price. New mines come on with lower cash costs than currently, averaging effect will bring down overall cost profile, quite in distinct contrast to rest of industry. We are looking for 2.6 million ozs by 2009.

Junior Gold Stocks
We have seen in last few months distinct change in valuations for juniors, fundamentally flat to down, senior producers like Kinross continued up, and as a result, disparity in valuations. It is tougher to raise money today as junior exploration company, partly reflection slow-moving nature of projects being built by juniors, more likely including global credit crunch tougher to raise money.

Ron Meisels, www.na-marketletter.com

2008-03-25T16:47:00.000-07:00

TOP PICK BARRICK GOLD CORP (NYSE:ABX TSE:ABX): Barrick done very well, been in major uptrend, trading range $47-53, it is probably minimum $60 stock. Been a laggard for such a long time so now it is finally moving. It is a senior player, institutions because of their size are happy to own this. Gold stocks and gold itself very often move slightly separately. We paid $36 for Barrick.

BARRICK GOLD VITALS

Closing Price March 25, 2008: $44.15Cdn
52-Week Range: $29.74-54.11Cdn
# of Shares Outstanding: 871 million
Quoted Market Value: $38.5 billion Cdn
% Institution Owned: 78.13%

Most Recent MD&A Nov 2007 download HERE

1yr Technical Chart

Peter Hodson, senior portfolio manager Sprott Asset Management on ELDORADO GOLD

2008-03-25T16:33:00.000-07:00

BNN March 17, 2008

ELDORADO GOLD (AMEX:EGO TSE:ELD): situation where the market for mid-cap producers is getting interesting. As gold moves forward, investors forsee problems with companies that do not have production yet, market will gravitate to companies with production who can take advantage of high prices. Because who knows how long high prices are going to last. Now Turkey problem has been solved, Eldorado is great go-to madcap name: great production, great assets and they are really going start to profit from high gold prices at this point in time. We do not own it right now but I think it is great great name if you want to take away from Barricks and Kinrosses of the world and go into next level…

ELDORADO GOLD VITALS

Closing Price March 25, 2008: $7.02Cdn

52-Week Range: $3.79-7.63Cdn

# of Shares Outstanding: 344 million

Quoted Market Value: $2.42 billion Cdn

% Institution Owned: 62.4%
Most Recent MD&A Nov 2007 download HERE

1yr Technical Chart

Peter Hodson, senior portfolio manager Sprott Asset Management on WESTERN GOLDFIELDS

2008-03-19T00:13:00.000-07:00

BNN March 17, 2008

WESTERN GOLDFIELDS (AMEX:WGW TSE:WGI): the stock has been doing okay but not as good as some of the other players. Of course they have 60 thousand ounces hedged at $800, at that time looked great but not great anymore. So it is not go to name in mid-cap space but they have 100,000 unhedged and that will be recognized. It is a great management team. I think the next catalyst will be buyout or merger. I think this is company dying to hook up with someone else. You get from 1 to 2 mines, their 160,000 ounces could go to 320,000 ounces, suddenly big player, could reduce hedge position. I always thought they would be great merger candidate with AURIZON MINES (AMEX:AZK TSE:ARZ), become capital markets play. Trouble with that is who runs it, egos involved. To turn bigger company then people will take notice..

WESTERN GOLDFIELD VITALS
Closing Price March 19, 2008: $3.27 Cdn
52-Week Range: $1.73-4.13Cdn
# of Shares Outstanding: 129 million
Quoted Market Value: $424 million Cdn
% Institution Owned: 30.14%
Most Recent MD&A Nov 2007 download HERE

1 Year Technical Chart

Peter Hodson, senior portfolio manager Sprott Asset Management on SEABRIDGE GOLD

2008-03-18T23:47:00.000-07:00

BNN March 17, 2008

SEABRIDGE GOLD (AMEX:SA CVE:SEA): still largest ounces per share exposure, huge ounces behind each share. Unfortunately because of NOVAGOLD (AMEX:NG TSE:NG) phenomena, CapEx exploded and they put that mine on hold, because SEABRIDGE in same area in British Columbia, everyone assumes their CapEx will go from $1 billion to $5 billion and nothing is going to happen. But it is a different environment, different mine; NOVAGOLD had water issues, SEABRIDGE does not have water issues. Best thing is they are very tight with their shares, have not issued very much stock over past five years and it is run by very great management team that has committment to the stock. With gold at $1000 it probably should do be doing better but it has connections to other problem companies, have to work your way around that. Think what will happen is company will probably be sold....endgame probably in two years but alot can happen in between that.

SEABRIDGE GOLD VITALS
Closing Price March 19, 2008: $24.1 Cdn
52-Week Range: $15.5-39.0Cdn
# of Shares Outstanding: 37.3 million
Quoted Market Value: $899 million Cdn
% Institution Owned: 36.87%
Most Recent MD&A Nov 2007 download HERE

1 Year Technical Chart

Peter Hodson, senior portfolio manager Sprott Asset Management on GOLDEN STAR

2008-03-18T23:01:00.000-07:00

BNN March 17, 2008

GOLDEN STAR (AMEX:GSS TSE:GSC) I actually do not own it anymore. Situation where they had nothing but problems coming from their mines. They actually had a new CEO put in place about a month or so ago. Very cheap, good production, it is a great takeover target but in terms of execution, it has just been nothing but disappointsments. They had power issues in Africa, confluence of events going against it. Now if you do like gold, it may not matter for this company; I think they have enough production and assets that their stock price may go up from here but I would rather buy a company that did not disappoint.

GOLDEN STAR VITALS

Closing Price March 19, 2008: $3.77 Cdn

52-Week Range: $2.82-5.61Cdn

# of Shares Outstanding: 235 million

Quoted Market Value: $888 million Cdn

% Institution Owned: 40%
Most Recent MD&A Feb 2008 download HERE

1yr Technical Chart

Dennis DeSilva, managing director at Middlefield Capital Corp. on GOLDCORP

2008-02-28T19:53:00.000-08:00

BNN February 25, 2008

GOLDCORP (NYSE:GG TSE:G): we still are holding on, I have to admit on precious metals side we do see some upside in gold prices, but we have some concerns on the cost side. Certainly the industry I think the consolidation that has been going on some of the seniors buying other companies is always an early-stage indication that it is difficult to find resources. It is easier and lower-risk to just go buy it. So there is some concern on the cost side. They have very aggressive growth, basically 50% in next 3-4 years and we all know everything takes little more in cost in mega-projects. So it is more of a hold at this point for our portfolios.

GOLDCORP VITALS
Closing Price Feb 28, 2008: $43.67Cdn
52-Week Range: $22.4-$43.78Cdn
# of Shares Outstanding: 709 million
Quoted Market Value: $30.96 billion Cdn
% Institution Owned: 63.46%

Most Recent MD&A Q3 2007 download HERE

1-yr Technical Chart

Dennis DeSilva, managing director at Middlefield Capital Corp. Top Pick

2008-02-27T16:13:00.000-08:00

BNN February 25, 2008

OSISKO EXPLORATIONS (TSE:OSK): one of the largest undeveloped gold plays in Canada, right now about 8.5 million ounces Measured, Indicated and Inferred; another resource update Q2, expect to see over 10 million ounces, feasibility study by end of the year. I am surprised this stock has been flat in the context of what gold has been doing and bit of a drive to buy Canadian assets, whether it was Cumberland purchase by AGNICO-EAGLE MINES (NYSE:AEM TSE:AEM) or Miramar by NEWMONT MINING (NYSE:NEM). We see this continuing. Politically stable structure in Quebec, great infrastructure, great labour force. This is a company that we see some very good upside to as we see the feasibility study by the end of the year and this is a 500,000oz producer we see in 2-3 years.

OSISKO VITALS

Closing Price Feb 28, 2008: $6.24Cdn
52-Week Range: $4.06-$7.24Cdn
# of Shares Outstanding: 156 million
Quoted Market Value: $951 million Cdn

% Institution Owned: 15.9%

Management Discussion & Analysis Feb 25, 2008 download HERE

2-year Technical Chart

John O'Connell, portfolio manager, RBC Dominion Securities BNN

2007-12-10T21:22:00.000-08:00

Dec 10, 2007

BARRICK GOLD (NYSE:ABX TSE:ABX): premier gold company, have to keep in mind that gold prices very elevated, people are susceptible to taking profits. If we see some stability in the markets, could see some profit-taking in gold. Monitor amount of risk in portfolio.

IAMGOLD (NYSE:IAG TSE:IMG): in this environment where gold prices are so high and you have company struggling to make new highs from technical perspective, be looking to be more involved with major players; a lot of smaller ones money coming out of hedge funds. IAMGOLD struggling because American hedge funds selling off some of these gold names.

High Stakes Venezualan Gold Stocks

2007-04-19T19:02:00.000-07:00

A recent post by Ant & Sons details four signs that Venezualan gold company Crystallex might receive environmental permitting approval soon. They include the following: support from the Venezualan Permanent Environmental Commission, recent bought deal financing, appointment of William Faust as COO and Senior VP, and fellow gold miner Gold Reserve Inc. receiving the same approval.

Certainly, the stock of Gold Reserve has appreciated significantly over the past few weeks as the Brisas Project economics began to outshine Venezualan risk: proven and probably reserves of ~10.4 million ounces of gold and 1.3 billion lbs of copper with average estimated annual production at 456,000 oz Au, 60 million lbs Cu and an internal rate of return (IRR) >30% at today’s prices.

The President of Gold Reserve recently came onto Canada’s Business News Network (BNN) and gave a brief synopsis on both the activities of the company, the general mining environment in Venezuala, and, of great interest, remarks on neighbour Crystallex:

Doug Belanger, president, Gold Reserve Inc.

Building Venezuelan Mine
We mobilized our contractor SNC-Lavelin..we are engaging local population, train them, use them for construction..one of the prime requirements of the government to involve local people so they benefit from large development

Raising ~$600 Million for Capital Costs
Four mandated banks: Corporacion Andina de Fomento (CAF), Export Development Canada (EDC), UniCredit Group (as HVB) and WestLB of Germany for $450 million debt package, and then we will look for equity and quasi-equity to make up the balance

Hugo Chavez
Politicians say a lot but need to look at actions; we have gotten more done in his administration than the three previous ones combined..beyond that, they follow the rule of law, we have had no trouble with Venezuelan government

Royalties
They have a 34% income tax rate, pretty standard..4% royalty on gold, same for copper, not too low, not too high..Hugo Chavez recently signed a decree decreasing value-added tax, trying to encourage investment..they are making $150-200 million in oil per day, we will not do that in a year..what they are more interested in developing mining industry

Crystallex Permit?
I do not know their chances of getting approval..we had an investment roundtable with Ministry of Mines, Environment, Crystallex ambassador and ourselves, agreed on sharing of properties, waste management, airstrip..we both save money..after we got government to agree to permit separately..since then we have moved on our own path..the government wants these projects to go forward..

Crystallex's stock rose in sympathy with Gold Fields when approval of the latter's environmental permitting hit the newswires. However, as Doug Belanger stated, it was agreed upon with the Venezualan government that both companies will be evaluated separately, even though they will share some the same infrastructure.

Ultimately, I think that the Las Cristinas will be developed, but details of the arrangement between Crystallex and the Venezualan government are still up in the air. A recent Reuters report dated April 18 states that the government still has not made up its mind on whether or not to put the project under state control, and correspondingly, if Crystallex will be made into a minority partner; all of this in the context of a lingering, still unapproved environmental permit.

Gold Stocks: Robert Washer, Dynasty Metals & Minerals

2007-04-18T15:20:00.000-07:00

New Ecuador Gold Mine

Robert Washer, president and CEO, Dynasty Metals & Mining on Business News Network April 17

Dynasty Project

We will be the first in history of Ecuador to build gold mine, producing Q1 2008. In this project we have 2.5 million ounces at 13g/tonne, plus silver. We have 100 square kilometers concessions, only 3 kilometers have current reserves. We have $10 million in the bank right now, want to raise another $10 million, people are offering both debt and equity. In the next few months we feel that we will finance rest of $10 million. We have started construction, site infrastructure, tailing dams

New Ecuador Royalties?

Not really concerning. Maybe concessions equal to Peru. We have built into our projects, just two main projects, $750 million surplus. A small royalty in our projects would not stop our decision-making, would go ahead anyways. Also we have Dynasty Gold Belt, 1 million ounce resource there, open cut at 5g, very high grade, that will be huge.

Other Ecuadorian Projects

Just found what we believe to be new gold field at Copper Duke, have high grade gold right at surface, on and off 15 square kilometers, 2 drill holes right now, a lot of samples go >5g right at surface. Ecuador is like Australia 7 years ago because no one is there! We were one of the first in Ecuador. Underexplored.

Other Companies

Back when it was $260, only about 5 companies, now 40 companies and growing. Majors are coming too. This year and next year will be big burn, look at Peru and Chile and how they bloomed.

Cash Costs and Valuation

We have operating cost in our economic studies of <$200/oz. We can make a lot of money from gold. Right now we are valued at $25/oz in the ground. Operating companies are valued up to $200/oz in the ground; lot of opportunity to make profit and increase share price.

Gold Stocks: John Embry (II)

2007-04-04T17:13:00.000-07:00

John Embry, chief investment strategist, Sprott Asset Management

BIRIM GOLDFIELDS (TSE:BGI): top quality junior, they got some great projects in Ghana..I own 10% of company, never worry about it..one of these days they will have big hit..key is drilling success, do not worry about interest in sector

SOUTHWESTERN RESOURCES (TSE:SWG): stock has acted poorly for reasons that I do not know why..I think CEO does not project well, having said that, they have 5 million ounces in China that will prove to be economic in the near future..the company is misunderstood, is a huge generator of projects, active in China and Peru..why it acts like it does seems like there is a lid..antidote can be a takeover

RED BACK MINING (TSE:RBI): in the Lundin stable, I got involved at $1.60, I think this will become consolidator in West Africa, so many mid-sized companies..if somebody can put them together in rational basis, suspect Red Back might be the one to do it

LAKE SHORE GOLD (TSE:LSG): to me this is real gold company..have great project in West Timmons, probably have 1.5 million ounces of economic gold underground, will put this thing into production..as gold price rises, will be good to own..financing recently done, cashed up

BEAUFIELD CONSOLIDATED (CVE:BFD): property near Eleanore ore body of Goldcorp..other projects as well..to me real meat will be drilling in Quebec near Eleanore..stock has pulled back, in mid-40 cents..also reporting molybdenum shows

PELANGIO MINES (TSE:PLG): probably own close to 10%..joint venture with Detour Lake, also good connections in Ghana, several well-located properties to drill..combination of past producer plus Ghana properties..do not judge junior by their prices right now, does not bespeak their opportunity..

TOP PICK AFRICAN GOLD GROUP (CVE:AGG): strong management, landed African project..stock got pounded by indiscriminate institutional investor, absolutely no deterioration in fundamentals..only 27 million shares out

TOP PICK MINCO GOLD (TSE:MMM): will be spinning out Minco Mining, well cashed out, guy who runs it Chinese, knows China, has connections..I think MINCO SILVER (TSE:MSV) one of the cheapest silver stocks on the planet..combination of two I do not understand why they cannot generate more interest

TOP PICK KEEGAN RESOURCES (CVE:KGN): I think very sound management team, two projects, huge lengths of economic grades..only 22 million shares out, good people, good projects