Comments on Informed Comment: Helman: Bush's Stage-Managed Photo Op with Sunni ...

Why is the administration using Anbar as their sho...

2007-09-06T22:05:00.000-04:00

Why is the administration using Anbar as their showcase of success of the Surge when in fact, US troops withdrew from Anbar and the Sunni sheiks themselves drove away the AQI and foreign fighters?

Instead, I feel, Anbar should be seen as a example that leaving Iraq, and letting the local militia of the Shiite areas, Sunni areas do their own defense and diplomacy is the better solution to decrease violence in Iraq.

Anonymous (Disgusting) at 1:13 PM observed that Ir...

2007-09-06T21:25:00.000-04:00

Anonymous (Disgusting) at 1:13 PM observed that Iraq Slogger is now a paid site.

In my judgment, it is pretty easy to earn a free 6-month subscription; I've met the threshold more than once:
just give EJ a tip that isn't in a newspaper.
Dig something up and pass it along.
I believe a lot of the original stuff posted in these comments would qualify.

Anonymous, if nobody else has done it, tell EJ about how the President redefined success in Iraq on 6 Sept from al-Asad Air Base. I think that could qualify.

And you only have to submit a good tip twice a year, and its free.

And EJ says there are waivers available for the needy and deserving.

If you're smart enough to read IC, you're smart enough to get it free.

Professor Cole's Avid Student

It seems that America's democratic dream for Iraq-...

2007-09-06T16:08:00.000-04:00

It seems that America's democratic dream for Iraq--that the Shi'ite majority that would be voted into office could be weaned from Iranian influence with US financial and military encouragement--is in serious trouble. Instead, we have the glimmer of an "Anbar solution": supporting a Sunni minority as a counterweight to the Shi'ites, just as Saddam did. That will be pleasing to the anti-Iranian mindset of the Bush administration, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Trouble is, the democracy genie is now out of the bottle and I can't see Iraqis as a whole, let alone the Shi'ites, reconciling themselves to an Allawi junta backed by the sheiks, and it also doesn't look like Anbar could be partitioned off as a viable federalized US proxy like Kurdistan. Ironically, democracy may turn out to be the undoing of the grand US strategy for Iraq and the Middle East.

Good News from a region where good news is scarce:...

2007-09-06T15:57:00.000-04:00

Good News from a region where good news is scarce:

Riverbend, of Baghdad Burning, is apparently 'safe' in Syria.

[Latest post]

JuanAs always, thank you for your wonderful blog.D...

2007-09-06T15:14:00.000-04:00

Juan

As always, thank you for your wonderful blog.

Do you think it is possible that the US is planning a radical change in Iraq in conjunction with an attack on Iran? The US troops are now built up, we are arming the Sunnis and have a working relationship with them. What is to stop the US from bombing Iran (temporarily) back to the stone age, turning the Kurds loose on the Kurdish regions of Iran, while the Sunnis and former Baathists stage a coup. This might explain why Bush stopped in Iraq with the Secs of Defense and State and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs in tow, yet snubbed the elected Iraqi government. Such a move would certainly make other Sunni allies in the Gulf (not to mention the Israelis) happy. Such a move would certainly weaken the Shiites in the region and might even cause the collapse of the Iranian regime. An acquaintance who lives in Israel says rumors suggest an attack in mid September.

Green Marketeer

Iraqi employees who worked for the US government o...

2007-09-06T13:19:00.000-04:00

Iraqi employees who worked for the US government or US corporations are now starting to enter the US under the 7,000 visa's available until October 1st. Some of these Iraqi's are apparently staying with Americans they use to work with in Iraq, while a lucky few have jobs waiting with their American employers. The State Dept. refers all refugee's to the "International Rescue Committee" which is based in New York City: http://blog.theirc.org/

The UNHCR, which is co-coordinating relief for Iraqi refugees, said refugee's leaving Iraq recently increased to 60,000 per month from 50,000 per month. Related to that Morton Abramowitz, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation and board member of the "International Rescue Committee", has written an article on the international dimensions of the Iraq refugee crisis and the need for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to provide a comprehensive solution: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20546433/site/newsweek/

Abramowitz writes "because addressing the cause of the refugee crisis — the unraveling of Iraq — will be an intensely political job, it will take a world-class political figure to lead it: U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Only Ban, with the United Nations' backing, has a chance of bringing together the many nations caught up in the problem and providing a comprehensive solution."

Also President Bush has apparently proposed critical new legislation providing unlimited visa's for Iraqi's who worked for the US or US companies for more than 3 years. It hasn't gained much attention in Congress but this is critical legislation we should all support. However a US visa includes a green card which requires a security check that can take months. Fortunately security checks for some Iraqi's waiting in Jordan have gone through in less than a month, while another said their security check took 4 months.

The problem is to apply for a US visa in Jordan, Iraqi refugees have to turn in their passport to the US embassy in Jordan. However with no passport they are apparently afraid of the Jordanian security services. Also the UK has denied visa's to Iraqi translators who worked in Basra province and there is a great concern for their welfare. The UNHCR also said no country is accepting Palestinian refugee's from Iraq.

President Bush has apparently proposed important n...

2007-09-06T12:41:00.000-04:00

President Bush has apparently proposed important new legislation providing unlimited visa's for Iraqi's who worked for the US or US companies for more than 3 years. If anyone has any updates we should post that. Currently there are now 60,000 refugee's per month streaming out of Iraq - that's up by 10,000 a month in recent months the UNHCR reports (link below).

An estimated 15% of Iraqi refugees are deemed in extreme condition - victims of torture etc. Meanwhile the UNHCR is working urgently with Syria to keep the border open, as Iraqi's who worked for the US or US companies start to enter the US on some of the 7,000 visa's being handed out before October 1st.

Some Iraqi's are apparently staying with Americans they use to work with, isolated far from their Arabic culture, while a lucky few have jobs waiting with their American employers. The State Dept. apparently sends Iraqi refugees through the "International Rescue Committee" which is based in New York City (link below).

However one report said to apply for a US visa Iraqi's had to turn in their passport to the US embassy in Jordan. The visa includes a green card which requires a security check that can take months. Fortunately some security checks have gone through in record time - less than a month, which is virtually unheard of here. Perhaps this ambassador could explain to Iraqi's waiting for a visa - what are they to tell Jordanian security with no passport? People are desperate from what I understand.

Also what about the Iraqi translators who worked for the British government in Basra - they have been denied visa's into the UK. Finally the UNHCR says no country is taking Palestinian refugees from Iraq.

Link: The "International Rescue Committee" based in New York City: http://www.theirc.org/

Link: UNHCR Briefing reports on Iraq: http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/iraq?page=briefing

Thanks, Ambassador. Very interesting deployment o...

2007-09-06T12:33:00.000-04:00

Thanks, Ambassador. Very interesting deployment of the President, his Praetorians and the media.

Yeah, of course he would have had the meetings in Baghdad if possible, but it wasn't. This Anbar is surging in safety story is all they've got now to divert our attention from the latest catastrophes, be the financial, military, or diplomatic.

Juan -My take is that the strategy has changed fro...

2007-09-06T12:15:00.000-04:00

Juan -

My take is that the strategy has changed from a national scheme to partition. We will back the Sunnis after all, in cooperation with the Saudis, because our government (see Dept. of Energy web site) is confident that the real prize in Iraq is probably under the relatively unexplored western deserts.

The Shi'a are on their own once again, mostly because they actually are allied with the main target of the neocons - Iran. The U.S. bases will form the frontline between the two "states". This will make the Al Asad air base the nerve center of the new mission.

The Kurds - maybe, maybe not. They have shown too much independence in their oil development and control actions to suit the Bush regime. Also, I wonder how far the U.S. will go to oppose Turkish interests.

If you have any interest in this thesis, my related diaries can be found on the European Tribune site.

At the APEC conference China signed a long term LN...

2007-09-06T11:57:00.000-04:00

At the APEC conference China signed a long term LNG contract with Australia. China had been in negotiations with Russia and Iran. While the linked article suggests a search for pricing power, an additional reason may be that China understands that LNG from Iran will not be available in the foreseeable future.
It seems unlikely this deal was done without at least tacit U.S. approval, and likely some quid pro quo.
With the acquisition of Sunni support and the already supportive Kurds, supplies and security from two points on the compass have been strengthened. The Shiites in Iraq may be faced with choosing 'Iraq' or Iran.
Given that the 'al-Qaeda types' are known to be few in number, the article's observation of an 'undying opposition to the "Persians." ' strikes a chord that fits the orchestration of the Iranian symphonic of war.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22375723-643,00.html

I've REALLY tried to just let President Bush's lit...

2007-09-06T10:54:00.000-04:00

I've REALLY tried to just let President Bush's little 'photo-op/sound bite' trip to Iraq fade away, but it's not working.

Visiting the US troops is fine - it's the hob-nobbing with a bunch of Sunni tribal sheiks that has me up in arms.

These very same tribal sheiks have killed over 2,000 brave, young Americans in the past 4 years.

These are the same tribal sheiks who have sponsored almost all of the horrendous violence that has wracked Iraq for the past 4 years, preventing national reconciliation and the political solution necessary for Iraq to move forward as a nation.

These are the same tribal sheiks who invited the Salafi jihadists (otherwise known as 'al Qaida in Iraq' into the country, and have supported them in their heinous crimes for the past 4 years.

These are the same tribal sheiks who have absolutely NO INTEREST in democracy, rule their tribes as dictators, and mete out 'justice' as they see fit, without even a nod to fairness or human rights.

And, perhaps worst of all, these are the same tribal sheiks who formed the backbone of support for Saddam's cruel rule and oppression of the majority Shiites.

So now President Bush lays bare the final lie: his FUBAR adventure in Iraq is NOT about Saddam's brutal rule, just like we found out that it's NOT about WMDs, it's NOT about democracy, and it's NOT about 'al Qaida'.

Embracing these tribal sheiks - who have no interest in democracy, justice or anything other than the power they can gain from sucking off Uncle Sam's front tit - exposes President Bush in ways he obviously never considered.

It also slaps Iraqi PM al-Maliki and the Shiite and Kurdish legislators right across the face. These are the people who must act on the 'benchmark legislation' that is supposed to bring about 'national reconciliation'.

The 'benchmark legislation' (oil-sharing, election reform, de-de-baathification, etc) mainly deals with giving the Sunnis MORE power, but why should the Shiites and Kurds really WANT to do this, when President Bush is already arming and supporting them?

As I have written many times before, the ONE THING that the Shiites and Kurds absolutely, positively will NOT do is let the Sunnis get their 'noses under the tent flap'...... because they have centuries of Sunni oppression to warn them of what will happen if they do.

Yet here is President Bush, LIFTING that tent flap and inviting the Sunnis in, while at the same time attempting to force the Shiites and Kurds AT GUNPOINT, to do the same.

The Sunnis are the enemy of democracy in Iraq. President Bush touts democracy.

Yet here he is in Iraq, embracing the enemies of democracy.

I call that consorting with the enemy.

President Bush is so desperate for ANYTHING he can claim as 'progress' that he will even resort to cozying up to these killers.

What can the families of the several thousands of brave, young Americans killed BY THESE SAME SHEIKS and their tribes, be feeling?

Bravo, President Bush.....

Dear Professor ColeIsn't this High Crimes and Misd...

2007-09-06T10:39:00.000-04:00

Dear Professor Cole

Isn't this High Crimes and Misdemeanours?

The Deceiver

In short:Tactics without strategy is the noise bef...

2007-09-06T09:48:00.000-04:00

In short:

Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.

--Sun Tzu, The Art of War, circa 500 B.C.

This has nothing to do with Juan's post, but Iraq ...

2007-09-06T07:13:00.000-04:00

This has nothing to do with Juan's post, but Iraq Slogger became a paying website, they're asking for 60$ a month to read their articles.

Disgusting.

"So the Sunni sheiks appear now to be doing what t...

2007-09-06T06:53:00.000-04:00

"So the Sunni sheiks appear now to be doing what the Shiites and others have done: find ways to bring the US to support their objectives."

In other words, the occupiers are resorting to the time-worn colonial tactic of indirect rule, and the occupied in turn are figuring out how to game it. Declining empires can be bought off with oil wells, at least until Junior gets out the door, then let the grownups fix it.

Dear Professor ColeGuess who has popped up again?U...

2007-09-06T04:18:00.000-04:00

Dear Professor Cole

Guess who has popped up again?

U.S. has armed 12,000 Sunni tribesmen in Iraq: Chalabi
Tehran Times Political Desk

TEHRAN -- Head of Iraq’s Supreme National Commission for De-Baathification Ahmed Chalabi criticized on Monday the U.S. for arming about 12,000 Sunni tribesmen, Al-Hayat newspaper reported.

Chalabi said these armed tribesmen are commanded by former officers of Saddam Hussein’s Presidential Guard.

He said this move is in sharp contrast to the U.S. demand for the disarming of militia.

In a meeting with a number of Iraqi scholars in London, Chalabi said Washington is putting pressure on the Iraqi government to change the de-Baathification law.

He also said the prime minister cannot choose competent ministers to resolve political and security problems faced by the country because every clan must have shares in the cabinet

Source Teheran Times

Ambassador Gerald B. Helman falls for the same Dis...

2007-09-06T03:02:00.000-04:00

Ambassador Gerald B. Helman falls for the same Disneyland image of the Iraqi society that has plagued the Americans, and Westerners in general:

"You have your Sunnis who want to rule everyone, the Kurds who have had enough of silent suffering, and the Shiite who want to split from Iraq for fear of being ruled by the Sunnis again. Bush wants to unify Iraq (presumably to add to the threat to Israel!) against the will of the Iraqis. Its wont work".

First, the Americans worked very hard to split Iraq from way back. The wanted it to remain a single country by name only, to keep the other countries in the region quite and to ensure that territorial disputed between the factions will keep it weak and under the US thumb.

Secondly, the schism is Iraq is between Nationalists, which includes most of the Shiite (whom the Americans insist are anti-Nationalism) and pro-US Kurds and Hakim followers. Even Maliki's party is split along these lines.

As for the Kurds, the vast majority of Iraqis support their autonomy, and a big majority want them out of Iraq completely even if against their will. In other words, they are not really Iraqis to start with.