Matt T

The pound in your pocket hasn't devalued

2009-11-20T21:22:00.005Z

When Harold Wilson said something like that it was obviously a lie. I've commented a few times on the somewhat bizarre return of the 'devaluationists' in economic commentary, led by Ambrose Evans Pritchard, who I seems to believe that every country in the world can, and should, devalue at the same time.

But anyway, the point of this piece was I just bought four bottles of Champagne from the local off-licence for £40. So perhaps Wilson was right after all as its pretty good stuff.

update: Ooh, my head. Bloody Alistair Darling.

David Horowitz, of all people, emails me:

2009-11-10T17:31:00.000Z

Is America losing its mind?

Letters of condolence

2009-11-10T08:25:00.004Z

I don't really want to post on this as it's a pretty wretched subject, but I see now the newspaper in question has got the bereaved mother taping private conversations (a breach I believe of civil law if it's made public..) four of the top five coments on their own website are suggesting the story is dragging on to long.

It appears what they are after to show more respect is to get a secretary to type out the letters in future and borrow Donald Rumsfeld's signature machine.

The sloppiness of Henry Porter's research makes one despair of the Sunday Times

2009-11-08T13:48:00.003Z

Here.

Are eurosceptics unrealistic in their expectations?

2009-11-06T10:12:00.002Z

If Dan Hannan matures from his present rather aloof juvenile lead mode to be a plausible, and warm, leader then that might be possible in the next 10 years.

Yes, I think they might be.

Hannan

2009-11-05T08:18:00.001Z

Do you think he has mistaken a 'referendum' for Clearasil? Isn't it really weird language to use?

"This Conservative is for a referendum: a proper, deep-cleansing referendum that will settle whether our country remains subordinate, or becomes self-governing".

Government and private imbalances

2009-11-04T08:04:00.005Z

Martin Wolf makes the case (again, but I suppose he's hoping one day it will stick) that government deficits have been caused by private surpluses. Incidentally on this analysis you can see why Germany might have had a terrible jolt at the start of the economic crisis but one that hasn't been felt so much inside the country as you might think.

News and opinion

2009-11-04T06:35:00.002Z

It's interesting to see that the Daily Telegraph has scrapped the idea that news should be unbiased and is now editorialising in news articles. I know newspapers always do this to some extent but it's still a bit surprising to see how far the D.T has gone. Headline today:

Lisbon Treaty: more of Britain's powers surrendered to Brussels

This is on the web version, Private Eye noted this week that the Daily Mail now has different headlines and (perhaps) story angles on its website than the print version - think this is a risky business.

Lisbon

2009-11-03T21:38:00.002Z

The Lisbon Treaty has now been ratified by all signatories, and although it is not yet law it appears the Eurocrats have taken no time in imposing their will on our once proud country. Nosemonkey is liveblogging it, but highlights are:

The EU flag has been raised over the Houses of Parliament

Buckingham Palace has been nuked by a European Air Force

Winston Churchill's statue is - well it appears only to have been half done - being replaced by Jean Monnet's.

The EU = China 1989

2009-11-03T15:02:00.004Z

This appears to be Daniel Hannan's latest point.

On the referendum (a bad idea although one I think the pro-treaty faction would win) I don't really understand the issue about Cameron breaking his 'cast-iron' guarantee of a referendum. He's been hinting that he wouldn't hold one if it had been ratified since the day he made the pledge. I think the worst that can be said was that he was too cowardly to admit explicitly that it was only if it hadn't already been ratified, and has avoided making a policy because of an eagerness that something might turn up. A ditherer, but that's no bad thing.

No €30 note

2009-10-28T13:51:00.004Z

Jim Higgins, an Irish MEP, apparently wants one. And Jean-Claude Trichet is not budging. It's quite a nice brush off, although Reuters suggest he has overlooked Tunisia (although perhaps they don't have a 3 dinar note so it doesn't quite follow the pattern).

The question now is what purpose would a €30 euro note serve? It's true the 20 euro note doesn't buy you much.

The bleedin' weather

2009-10-28T07:37:00.001Z

A quick weather update using my "weather station". Here is the average daily temperature in Kensal Rise, London since January. Unfortunately May is missing, that's the gap. The hottest single daywas the 30th June with a temperature average of 23.6 degrees centigrade (as are all temperatures quoted here). The coldest was 1st February at minus 2.2 degrees.

Taking the monthly average the coldest was January at just 4.1 degrees, then Feb at 5.7 degrees, March at 8.6 degrees, April at 12.2 degrees. Then June was the hottest month at 19.1 degrees, slightly warmer than July's 18.3 degrees and just August's 19.0 degrees. September tails off quite quickly to just 16.1 degrees and October is back down to April levels at 12.2 degrees.

Looking at individual days, the following charts shows the temperature every half hour through the day (from midnight) for October 26th (Monday), and the 26th of June, July, August and September. Of course in October the clocks had gone back so everything's been pushed forwards an hour. There's a slight problem with my weather station which really shows up here - the sun shines directly on it about 2pm. Hence on sunny days it can really raise the temperature - that I think is what is happening on 26th September given how cold it began and then picked up so rapidly.

The things the Mail says

2009-10-26T20:24:00.003Z

The Daily Mail is actually referring to a 34yr old woman, who looks perfectly normal, as a 'Cameron Cutie'.

Italy and the UK

2009-10-26T14:20:00.004Z

Relative economic size is one of the main topics around here, especially when measured using fluctuating market exchange rates. For example here, or here where I looked at the possibility of Italy overtaking the UK.

Well apparently according to George Osborne in the Evening Standard, that day has come (quoting this presumably). And it seems reasonable enough, given my post last December talked of it happening if the pound was worth less than 1.1 euros.

Yet one would be justified in being sceptical that the Italian economy really was larger than the UK economy. A visit to any continental European country (or look at Gap's price tags which show euro and sterling prices) makes you think the pound is probably undervalued against the euro.

In fact Italy's GDP in constant prices and local currency has performed almost identically to the UK's over the last year, so clearly we are talking about currency effects, not anything real going on. I've remarked before that one of the weird things about economic commentary in this recession has been a love of devaluation (Ambrose Evans Pritchard give the impression he believes ever country in the world can and should devalue at the same time). Well here's (one of) the drawbacks.

Carrier(s) to be scrapped?

2009-10-26T10:44:00.003Z

The Guardian reports that the navy's two new aircraft carriers are to be downgraded to one lesser one and a floating helicopter storage pad as the cost overruns. If true, this is perhaps the least surprising bit of news in history. I note that the report says the cost has risen by £1bn above the original £3.9bn estimate. Yet surely this itself was a higher estimate than the original, which was more like £2.9bn [incidentally I think this choosing of 'original estimates' is the reason people say the original Trident was 'below budget'].

Pure evil

2009-10-22T21:38:00.001Z

Well Question Time has just started and I can honestly say that's the most offensive thing I've seen on TV for a long time.

No way to run a country

2009-10-22T10:09:00.003Z

I find some of the Conservatives' langauge rather unsettling. David Davies says "We should tear up the Human Rights Act" while Jeremy Hunt wants to "rip" up the BBC's charter. While I don't agree with Oliver Kamm's argument that New Labour had made Britain a "banana republic", it looks increasingly like the Tories will..

Mafia style messages

2009-10-20T09:25:00.005Z

It's difficult to know what to make of this story (in the Times but the Times has close links to all these characters so probably accurate).

One assumes its simply a drunken joke that was regretted the second the send button was pressed. But doesn't it give you a slight sense of panic that these people might be in charge soon enough? Jamie had a piece on what we can expect and the general view was a lot of infighting, which this supports. However I think I agree with Justin's comment unless they have some huge European disaster.

Share trading

2009-10-19T19:44:00.003Z

The FT, from Nomura, has this interesting table showing stock market capitalisation of the top 10 countries, and the turnover of those markets.

The actual report lists the top 30, and from that we can see that the US accounts for about one-third of the top 30 market capitalisation but more than 50% of total trading volume. No other market comes close on the market cap/turnover ratio, with Korea next.

Anyone know why volumes are so high?

EU politics

2009-10-13T08:58:00.003Z

The Economist this week seems to argue both that the EU has become too powerful vis-a-vis national governments, and that it needs Tony Blair as President in order to give it clout on the world stage. But surely Tony Blair in giving it clout would have to ride over national government wishes?

Speechmaking

2009-10-12T12:26:00.001Z

I've been away so probably a bit slow on the update but this is quite funny.

An elementary economics error

2009-10-06T06:52:00.002Z

Australia raises rates from 49-year low
First G20 economy to tighten policy since crisis

screams the headline of the FT. Yet if anyone knows one thing about Australia it is that it is upside down. And so when they raise rates it is fact a loosening of policy, not a tightening, i.e. the same as if the ECB or BoE had lowered rates.

Referenda

2009-10-03T23:14:00.003Z

I don't understand why people think it's wrong for governments to keep having referenda until they get the result they want. The idea behind a referendum is that a particular issue is so important you need to get the public's view, or if you are pushing a particular policy, their consent. If this is right thing to do once it's the right thing to do as many times as you want to do it. One has to assume people understand the question they are being asked, the implications for saying 'yes' or 'no', and if they were annoyed by being asked again they would vote accordingly. The critics seem to be saying: "Blimey, the general public are so stupid they can't see (unlike myself) that they are being manipulated" which is a strange position to take if you support the idea of referenda.

Care homes

2009-10-03T06:52:00.003Z

Why is it such an 'injustice' that one has to sell one's house in order to live in a care home?

If only 1/5 people have to do this I can see why it is annoying. But maybe that's because they have lived longer.

I find it a little strange that houses have become so untouchable. Under current Tory plans no-one will have to sell their house to fund private residential care, then when you die the government won't take any of the money back in inheritance tax. This seems rather odd to say the least.

The specific plan seems a little weird too. If people can voluntarily pay £8,000 at age 65 and this is enough - given it's only 1 in 5 - to fund free residential care, then why aren't private insurers offering the service? It's not as if the government scheme works because of universality, as it's voluntary. From what I've seen it just seems an extension of government into an area which is unneeded (which is not necessarily true of a 100% service).

Hitler's skull

2009-09-30T09:16:00.004Z

A bone fragment believed to be part of Adolf Hitler's skull has been revealed as being that of an unidentified woman...US scientists said DNA tests revealed it actually belonged to a woman aged between 20 and 40

Here. Of course there is an obvious other explanation [1] that Hitler (at death) was a woman aged between 20 and 40.

I realise at a stroke I have changed our view of history. I think also that given her known record in World War I she would have had to have been at the upper end of that age range, perhaps even 45. But otherwise it fits the facts.

Oh.

[1] No not Eva Braun, who by the way was Hitler's girlfriend, companion, common-law wife etc before coming his wife, not his mistress. I've mentioned that before.