Riding On Momentum

Structure of a trade

2009-11-08T20:54:00.002+08:00

Every trade must have three steps to it and they become the structure of a trade. Structure is necessary because it decreases the odds of random or emotional decisions and it brings vital organization to you trading.

1) Setup
It consists of a high probability repetitive pattern

2) Trigger
Confirms or puts into motion a setup

3) Follow-through
Method used to minimize losses and maximize profits

I will go into detail the 3 steps right now.

Step 1 A setup is a pattern that has shown a strong tendency to repeat over time and it has a VERY SPECIFIC SET OF RULES and it MUST BE TOTALLY OBJECTIVE. They include

1) Chart Patterns like support,resistance, flags, pennants, trendlines.
2) Formations such as Elliott, fibonacci and regression line analysis
3) Cycles, Seasonal, ratios

Step 2 The trigger is a method used to confirm or validate a setup. Any method you use REQUIRE a SETUP and a TRIGGER for EVERY TRADE. There are NO EXCEPTIONS. It must be VERY SIMPLE AND VERY SPECIFIC. Just something for you all to think about. My trigger is the stochastic. I buy when it is overbought and i short when it is oversold.

Step 3 Managing a trade
This does not hold much meaning for me as i seldom have a follow through trade,i'm generally trading intra-day in the FX market and when i do trade in equities, i have a different setup of rules that i use for it. I will cover when i had enough profit or unless the reason why i short is invalidated,i will close off the trade.

If you have been randomly taking trades and keep changing your system you do not have a fixed set of rules that you can follow and that you know is profitable if that is the case, you should not be in the market at all because you will just be the 95% of the people giving money to the 5%. It takes a long time to backtest and be confident about a particular set of rules even then it will take lots of finetuning before it can preform the way you want it to. There is no shortcut to wealth,it takes a lot of hardwork for that to happen.

The US data on Friday shows that they are nowhere near recovery and it will be interesting to see how Asia will react to it,i personally think we will be down on Monday despite a flat Dow Jones closing on Friday. I expect US to be weaker as we go forward mainly based on these reasons 1) 4th Quarter stimulus will be half of 3rd Quarter 2) Personal Credit has dropped more than expected which means consumption going forward will remain very weak 3) Jobless recovery? There is no recovery by being jobless 4) Commercial Real Estates still in trouble.

Nonetheless, most of the troubles are very concentrated in the DEVELOPED Countries and Asia countries will be tightening going forward and due to the preceived weakness in DEVELOPED Countries. Hot money will be gushing towards Asia which will lead to an asset bubbles as well as higher interest rate and credit so as to reduce the flow. Things will be better off in Asia however i do not expect Asia Equities to push much higher this year as the earnings from companies are so very horrible with the exception from blue chips companies.

Stay Safe,Protect your capital and let the events unfold.

Weakness in non big cap

2009-11-05T15:27:00.003+08:00

Prices of non big-cap companies has been drifting down relentlessly. They are usually driven up by speculative money and when the people are nervous similarly money flow out of them very quickly. I only realized it today but most of the 2nd liners and pennies has drifted 30-40% off their high

The ones still holding up are the banks and the other index counters. Lots of people has shifted sidelines. Please do remember that being 30-40% off their high doesn't necessary means it's cheap and that it can be bought.

The stock market is manipulated. If there are no big money accumulating even the best company cannot go up. And what have i been saying for the past 1-2 months? Smart money has been selling out, we are holding up near the high in the index because it makes no sense for them to sell at a lower price right? Even for us we don't want to sell at low price,we want to sell at high price. We have gone through the markup phase and the distribution phase. Now we are entering the mark down phase. How much we will be mark down i do not know the only thing i will know is when it's being accumulated again. Look at your portfolio and see what are the percentage they are down with. Unless it is very big,i would suggest you cut and wait for the accumulation phase and get in on the up phase again. You can hold to your stocks and wait for mark up again but you may miss out 2 important things. 1) Whether your stocks will go back to the price you buy and you get out at slight profit 2) The opportunities you have lost while being locked up. We cannot invest like Warren Buffett simply because we don't have as much money as him so waiting for many years is out of the questions for us.

This is only my advice and it's still up to you to decide based on what companies you hold and what is your way of growing your money. I am not a person 1) To pay money to people to lose my money 2) Hold something that is going down so that my money disappear with it and miss out opportunities to make more money.

And as i have stated before the stock market is not the real economy,the stock market CONTROLS how the real economy perform. If stock market has been distributed and we are going down,be ready for a dip in our economy. Although our PM is very positive that we won't have a second dip however Asia STILL RELIES on Developed countries and if they are going to be worst off in 2010-2011. It would be quite difficult for Asia to be very rosy after the stimulus has been wean off. No doubt the confidence has seep back but it will be many years before the conditions on the ground will feel like the recession is over. Protect your capital,that is the most important thing.

Support and Resistance is all that matters

2009-11-01T16:13:00.003+08:00

The art of technical analysis is profound because different people see different things and they will act based on what they perceived. Many people tried to complicate matters by adding many indicators in the hope that it will show them what will happen next. But frankly indicators is only for confirmation. It is the breaking or bounce off support and resistance,trendlines,fibonacci that really matters.

Top can be anticipated by looking at the divergence of the indicator as they will show you well in advance that the move is losing strength but end of the day they will not tell you the exact moment or the exact market top whereby the market will drop after hitting it.

In the chart i have highlighted 2 key trendline support level. The first minor was hit on Thur at 2.610 and it rebound up immediately but it is the 2nd trendline that comes in at 2,550 that plays a bigger part. Before that is broken. The market could still go either direction. It is only when 2,550 is broken that we should look for a drop to 2,420. In the chart that i posted out, you would have seen the divergence in the MFI as well as the 2 trendlines that i have drawn in but notice that the market has continued to move up despite MFI moving lower. Should the MFI breaks to the downside expect the 2,550 level to be tested and should it not hold 2,420 is on the cards.

You should look at these level as a gauge of sentiment. As long as we are above 2,550 the market is inherently bias to the upside on LOW VOLUME days but should volume is high,the market will be down.

Next up 2,420 the market will likely rebound off that level,it may not be a big rebound but definitely you would expect the market to find support at that level. However as it is below 2,550 the bias of the market will be bias to down as people will be expecting correction in the market.

Would you have known what direction the market is bias to before i said the above? Like many said,the chart tells the truth and they tell you many things but can you catch on what the market is telling you?

There are views that i have that last for months those are based on historical development,it has happened before and it will likely happen again. Will this time be different? Maybe or maybe not i do not know but i feel the warning must be sound in case people get overly bullish. But as we go along in the days,weeks,months ahead more signs will emerge. Is correction coming? Definitely after such a big surge but the key question we are interested in is not whether it comes right? It's all about when it comes and whether it will develop into something bigger. We won't know that till the time comes.

I also wish to break the myth whereby stock market equate to the economy. That's not the case is it? It is all about liquidity and sentiment. There is a price for every company if you are going the investing route. Just make sure you don't over pay for them and you will make good money with time.

I read an article of the newspaper today it was in regards to how rich people and average person thinks. The rich will enrich themselves with knowledge and find ways to make their money work harder while the average person are happy with just knowing the basic and not put too much of their attention to enriching themselves. Whether it is trading or investing,there are numerous ways to do it. If 1 method will keep you always on tenterhook then you are probably not suited to use that method. Find something that works and gives you a piece of mind.

Don't let the noise affect your mood. We are the masters of our lives and of our money, we are not money's slave. So strive towards making the money work for you by finding what works for you.

Relieving stress and attain Tranquility

2009-10-31T21:35:00.002+08:00

What can you do about stress? First realize that knowing how to relieve stress is extremely important to your health and well-being, and then begin to focus on reducing the stress in your life before stress gets the best of you.

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From http://www.tranquilityisyours.com/

MARKET TOP is in

2009-10-30T23:56:00.002+08:00

Ok today i can safely say yes Market top is in.

Let's review what is going on and the rationale of my call.
1) GDP yesterday in US turn out better than expected and market rally. Today market drop back and SPY is trying to test the 1047 trendline support. Closing below that tonight will open the path for it to drop to sub 1,000 points in the weeks ahead.

2) Most of the growth was contributed by Government STIMULUS measures in other words FREE MONEY in the form of cash for clunkers and housing credit of which cash has expired,housing credit extended but with reduced amount

3) The peak stimulus period is in 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter and we are over 3rd quarter. The impact of stimulus will be much weaker in 4th quarter and the data coming out recently suggest that private consumption are not sufficient to pick up the slack

4) Government worldwide are withdrawing their stimulus as the confidence comes back.

5) Double dip recession is not a myth,the reason for the uptick was due to the stimulus and when it is absence economy will dip back

6) Tax will be higher in the next 1-2 years as what the government has spent is OUR MONEY and they'll have to recoup that money from us to balance their fiscal balance.

So why do i think the fall will accelerate next week onwards?
Yesterday was a classic dead cat bounce whereby the retailers were all on 1 side again paving way for the institutions to dump their shares to the bulls. The selling down today confirms this.

To be frank,i do not know this will happen yesterday,the only thing i know is i'm holding short positions(small 1s but in the money by $400 after shorting on monday)

I profit from the FX market today because the price action since entering the Europe/US timing totally added weight to my thoughts that the top is in(i was still unsure before that)

Recommended course of action
Short Nikkei,HSI indices
Long Yen Short Looney(Canadian)/Kiwi (NZ dollars)

STI may not have as big a drop as other market due to the fact that we still have something to look forward to(IR) but believe me when i say that there is a 70% probability that after IR is up we'll be the worst performer in Asia Market as we do the catch up in the drop. Singapore is a Open Economy and when outside is a hurricane we cannot help but be sweep around by it

Huge offering in Treasuries over US Side THIS WEEK

2009-10-26T23:49:00.004+08:00

US is making their own calculations,they decide to lengthen their debt offering from 42 months to 72 months as they take advantage of their record low interest rate. Do they take all other government as IDIOTS?

A depreciating USD,A LOW RATE and you expect rest of the world to buy your debt and save you?

If the offering this week is taken up very nicely by government worldwide that leads me to the question,Is US the idiots or are those that took them up the idiots.

Although i am personally VERY UNHAPPY with the way US has handled this crisis by just printing money and inflating the asset price so that they can get out at the expense of others or of their own citizens however this is what the WHOLE WORLD has been trying to do,with the WORST from US and UK.

Enough complaining from me because basically we cannot rely on the gov to save ourselves,we can only rely on ourselves to safeguard our wealth. I am sure many of you have missed the rally from March or just take nibbles like me but like i have warned,i sure hope you aren't still very heavy in equities by now.

Basically as i've mentioned,the whole rally and movement we have had is very manipulated and this all started from the US side.

And i am going to give a guide this week. Due to the auctions of the treasuries which will be a key event this week. There is 1 thing that i anticipate will happen and that is DOLLAR STRENGTHENING(like i mentioned,EVERYTHING is being MANIPULATED and US will manipulate things to their advantage). I am not saying it's going to be a full fledge reversal in the dollar trend that will last for a few months however for this week and probably next,Dollar Index will definitely be higher than the opening today.

Remember i said at the start of the post,which idiot will want to hold a depreciating and low interest debt? So they have to appreciate the currency this week so as to lure more demand(They'll hope that this will help facilitate the debt offering)

A look at the Dollar Index Chart to SUPPORT MY CLAIM

We did a DOJI in the weekly and in the daily,we actually did a 2 candle reversal signal and that usually signal for a few days of upside so you should know how i'm laughing now. It took longer than i expect(i had expect it to collapse in Europe zone but it took till US zone before it did a non stop collapse)

And when Dollar Strengthen what happens to equities? It'll GO DOWN and it has basically CRASHED down for the last hr(currently 12am). HOWEVER don't expect this to be a 1 way ticket. Lots of whipsaw will still plague this week however any decent rally is a signal to short for THIS WEEK. Whether next week will stay the same,we'll have to look at it end of week to see how everything is playing out.

Impending Top?

2009-10-23T17:47:00.005+08:00

The market seems to have entered the final phase of its move up as the volatility from Day to Day Surges be it up or down as you would have noticed this week.

I am not necessary saying that the market will collapse next week however the behavior of the market has reached this stage and any mark up in the STI should be taken as a signal to offload your existing holdings till the market has confirm on its Downward Correction Move.

The world till date has not been able to take it off from the life support and that is what is holding the market up as all the money printed by the Governments has been going into all the wrong places,it has not been used to create jobs it has been used to push up the equities,push up the commodities. But i am not the one to complain because regardless the market is up or down there will be money making opportunities.

Ride the trend for as long as it last but be careful when the market is showing signs that is may be about to end.

This week i had attended 2 different places that uses 2 different strategy. 1) Looking to make lightning fast execution and make a few pips and get out of the market and do it multiple times a day 2) As few trades as possible but target 20 pips a day then stop and just get on with other things.

Which 1 is more stressful? I believe the first 1 is definitely more stressful because you will be in out the market very frequently generating many commission for the broker and for that place that is charging 3.5k for just the first module? Total there's 4 module.

The more often you have to execute trade the higher your risk the greater the odds against you.

Risk is defined by the number of trades + the amount of time you stay in the market. As LONG as you are in the market you are subjected to Risk,this has not changed.

The second 1 was more interesting as it shows you how 20 pips a day can make you a living as long as you stick to the plan. Will everything goes smoothly as in the spreadsheet. It definitely will not because different people will have different result but it does show the infinite potential of Forex and the need for consistent execution and a target.

Like any form of business,trading is a form of business in itself and investment in education,upgrading as well as a sound plan to manage your risk and keep the money you made is important. Frankly any of you that grabs will know its easy to make money,the difficult part is how to keep it with you instead of giving it back and that's why trading can be so addicting because once you have tasted the sweetness of the money you will always come back for more.

But what is disappointing in Singapore is about so many of the course that does not really value add as they are just what you can read off books. I believe if 1 should go for the upgrading of their trading ability they have to teach you something the books don't and it's useful to help make you money(and keep it of course)

A trader does not look at % gain or loss at the end of day,he/she has to look at the dollar/cents made because we can't live off percentage can we? We need the dollar/cents to buy food or daily essentials,holiday or other things.

Hopefully these words that i have said will give you some food of thought as to how you have been handling it up till now and if you are not making money you need to review what is the reason and correct it. Nothing will change if you don't take the step to correct your mistakes.

And if that's the case you are just continually giving your money to the market, you might as well just donate the money to the old and needy folks in Singapore at least you are doing a good deed and they'll say thank you to you.

Market stalled at Crucial Level

2009-10-16T22:02:00.002+08:00

It happened for STI as we could not go up above 2720 which is a key level to watch.

Back to the US side,Earnings had beat expectations however they had not beat by enough margin after JP Morgan Report a 7 fold increase. The bar has simply been set too high.

Dollar got a bounce after 9 days of fierce sell off and for today i had posted in my MSN Nick to Long Dollar. It came nicely and i'm up 71 pips for today or 357 USD.

Market worldwide has some form of correction and it would be interesting to see if they would move up after the respite or continue to correct.

The Key of this lies on whether Dollar strengthen or weaken in the days ahead. For now Earnings will be the focus and after such a tremendous rally since March. It will take a lot to justify the move however the bomb would not be this quarter but rather it will fall on Next Quarter and there on in 2010 that will really be a huge bomb for the market. Don't Rule out a move down back towards 1800 and below by 2nd Half 2009.

Market is still for trading purpose and when it is trading you should always choose the best battlefield. I chose Forex as my battlefield because Stock wise i have no confidence in when it will finally drop(Neutral bias till the trend is set. Currently it is still neutral to up bias) I am medium term Bearish on Stocks.

Will Tonight prove to be a Major Surprise to Me or to the Rest of you?

2009-10-14T16:10:00.003+08:00

It has been a while since i posted as i watched the news unfold. Market has continued to be resilent and has been testing the high despite many call for correction of which none has prove to be right YET.

There are major datas tonight and there are 3 points i wish to bring across which i believe will surprise to the DOWNSIDE and market will have some selloff namely the Retail Sales. My basis for calling a miss in it is due to the Confidence report that came out recently and Americans has been a lot less optimistic than what is predicted. The same goes for every other country. Cash for clunkers which basically means Government will sponsor part of your purchase has run out as of last month which should prove to be a big hit as people would have rushed to buy before the sponsor ends leaving this month dry.

Market has been superbly optimistic today on the back of Intel Earnings. Tonight will be the start of Banks earnings. There is no doubt in my mind that banks would have MADE A LOT OF MONEY because they have access to free money which they can lend out for 5-24% returns coupled with the excellent trading conditions. But not all things bode well for them as i predict they'll take further writedown on commercial holdings and the BIG QUESTION is WILL the Profit + Writedown EXCEED the Market Expectations?

Finally the big FACTOR that will determine the move up or down tonight is USD. The previous 2 will help contribute to the direction of USD tonight but whether the market will move up or down DEPENDS on whether USD strengthens or weakens. USD has been falling off the cliff for the past few days and indeed the move has seem to be overwhelming as even during asia timing,USD would already start to drop day after day. I personally feel that the Short USD trade has gotten a bit overextended from the COT report and USD is directly tied to the move of equities. If USD is up,Equities Down,If USD Down Equities is UP. I do not foresee a Major bottom for USD anytime this week but rather it will be in few weeks time(Will be before end of this year because like i said when the positioning is too 1 sided which it has been for 6 months. A sudden impulse rally in it will cause the market to correct back)

In case you all never realize,the reason why Equities has not corrected is not because there is no bad news or because everything is good. It is all because of USD weakness but a USD weakness is no good since it will drive up commodities and many other things.

Be careful. I'm personally not trading equities right now because the risk/reward are definitely not to my favor instead i'm just concentrating in Forex.

Good luck to everyone

Bulls caught offguard as high of 2009 appears to be set

2009-10-02T21:18:00.006+08:00

Data has deteriorate around the world as the stimulus spending and the restocking of inventory weakens.

It would appear that the reversal of 2 days back and the fall yesterday was a defining turning point in this market as market dropped below the key 9630 level for Dow Jones and 1042 for S&P and looks set to stay below it today confirming that a top is in place negating any odds of a final spike up.

Data has indeed continue to disappoint both in the job market as well as in the consumer spending which has finally dash people's hope that we are anywhere near the end of the greatest recession since the GREAT DEPRESSION in 1930.

Funds has been selling out as the retailers look to buy every and any dip and the disappointment all around could shape up for a sharp sell down which will test Dow Jones on the 9,400 support today.(I do not expect tonight to be down as much as yesterday but the odds are market will be down. It is pretty important to see how Dow Jones react around 9,300 next week to know what is the bias for the market in the immediate term). The weaken USD should lend some support to the market though market cannot escape the down that it is bias to. The divergence in all the indicators has been apparent for 2 months and this breakdown will be a fast,sharp but i expect it to be relatively short(Probably last anywhere from 2-4 weeks) before market stabilized and stage a mini rebound to end this year.

Recovery will be slow and the impact of increased tax and reduced spending in the coming year will dent the stock market. Coupled with increased interest rate and potentially high inflation setting in in the next 8-12 months. The cycle of great depression is on us indeed however like all every cycles before it there will be period of incredible upside for the discern investor and i will be looking to unlock stocks with incredible value coupled with the timing of entry to let us attain our goal of Freedom.

Clear weakness in STI?

2009-10-01T14:58:00.003+08:00

It has been quite a while since i log into my brokerage platform but as compared to a month ago,it looks certain that there is clear weakness in the entire market regardless it is pennies,mid cap or blue chips. A month ago blue chips is stagnant but mid cap and pennies are running havoc.

This is a clear indication that a sense of discomfort in how the market has run up has set in and i believe given another week to two,the sentiment in the broad market will be negative as compared to the irrational bullishness that the equities has experienced for 5 months. Get ready for a final sharp spike before the market does its correction of 8-10% that spans over 3-4 weeks.

Unique Development

2009-10-01T10:22:00.003+08:00

Yesterday was a good night but it's not only yesterday.

For the whole of the month,the currency market has been favoring me reacting to the trades that i took however i must say that equities market overall has been very steady unlike the currencies market.(Risk aversion has been setting in for quite a while but equities market has remained steady)

This had lead me to think that for the remainder of this year. Equities will be fairly supported. My bet is still on the fall of the market in the next 2-3 weeks HOWEVER i do not foresee any major downside in the market JUST YET. Major downside will come but not now. Knowing what is happening around the world is just the basics but pinpointing when it will happen will require a higher understanding. I have been saying actually there are no good news it is just news getting less bad and where did that come from? From the huge amount of money the government has spent on our behalf which will come back in the form of tax or GST. Look at Spain,they have raised their tax or UK they too have raised their tax and these countries won't be the only 1. This is just the beginning of a wave of negative citizen wealth accumulation.

Last night US data disappoint as expected which is not a surprise as the money has more or less done its things but the consumer are no where near recovery but what has got me interested is that DJ actually stage a superb recovery. Yesterday night volume is US was above average mind you and for this kind of thing to happen. It lead me to think that for the next 2-3 days 1 should look for further upside in the DJ market testing the 9,800 yet again.

US intra day movement is very unpredictable but their day chart are setup very nicely and 1 thing to note is Asia has decoupled from US hence even if i tell you US is going for the break above 9,800 it remains a question mark whether Asia will react to it. The only 1 thing that i can be certain of is if the market is up,be ready for further USD weakness.

My bias is still for a major downside in the year 2010 however for the remainder of 2009 i do not expect STI to fall below 2200 hence what i will do is if there is a 8-10% drop in the STI index THEN i will start to be interested in trading the blue chips. Else before that should the mid cap fall to acceptable level i may swing trade it(Note it is swing trade hence the time frame can last from 3 day to 4 weeks)

Before that my priority is still on currencies simply because it is more volatile and reacts more dynamically to what is really going on in the world. I am a intra day volatility trader hence i only thrive in instruments that is volatile and Singapore stocks are definitely not volatile enough to do intra day trading.

Finally the Rejection move against DJ 9800

2009-09-24T22:34:00.004+08:00

Dollar turn as per expected on the turn day however it was hit again by Tuesday and into the FOMC(before it is announced). After the announcement dollar strengthen again and the selloff begin.

Today was a bullish day just like other days for the past 6 months as DJ futures point to a gap up to 9800 which is the ALL IMPORTANT level to watch out for. Should it reclaim 9,800 the odds are for further upside before any correction will begin but a rejection of this level will begin a sell off that will drag the DJ to sub 9,000 level and S&P back to 950.

Dollar has strengthen across the board and commodities are hit across the board as well due to the dollar strength. So by now everyone should know what color DJ is right now when dollar has strengthen and commodities drop.

I WANT to see a close below 9,700 and a confirmation tomorrow so that it will open the door for further furious sell off early next week. For those people that had met up with me,there's something you will surely remember from talking with me and that the move now has nothing fundamental in it. It's purely caused by the FURIOUS printing of money by government worldwide and the notion of stimulus going to be reduce or end will result in an earthquake in the equities market but support from government in the form of stimulus is not sustainable and next year will prove to be a devastating year for stocks as the consumer consumption is in nowhere near recovering or picking up.

Stocks may still move up but folks with lots of exposure in stocks better watch out because what you are holding on now are overpriced stocks and when the bubble burst it could take years before you will see the same price level again. So REMEMBER YOUR STOP LOSS

I have been repeating and i will repeat again,making money is not only about making them but also about KEEPING THEM and the way to keep it is to PREVENT yourself from getting a DEVASTATING LOSS

I sincerely hope that this will be the correction we are waiting for not because i am evil or i want people to lose money or to make me look good whatsoever but because the longer the market is irrational,the heavier people will be hit when the bubble is burst. I would rather we have a pain staking long downward move slowly rather than people driving it up beyond logic and when it burst the market can drop 800 points in a month leaving everybody who's holding onto stocks in devastation and i hope that the printing of money will end sooner and let the market do its correct pricing because if it doesn't. The world will be set for a even greater crisis years down the road.

Dollar went up but DJ still manages to stay positive

2009-09-19T16:38:00.002+08:00

As per my previous post,Dollar manage to stage a rebound yesterday gaining against every other currencies pair and hit commodities as well.

DJ still manage to eke out a positive gain and the uptrend line which will be coming up to 9700 by next week will be a crucial level to watch. Should DJ manage to stay above it there is likelihood of it testing 10,000 but i am a bit skeptical of it as there are starting to be too many voices saying that 10,000 will be broken hence caution should still be exercised. However unless the uptrend line is broken there will not be a concrete strong movement down.

Expect further gaining in strength on the Dollar early next week. Pound is the big loser on Friday and moving forward pound will overall still be under performing other currencies.

18th/21st Sept 2009 the KEY TURN Date for the USD

2009-09-18T12:29:00.004+08:00

1) The update of the trade yesterday,it was closed off flat by the stoploss that i had set before i went to bed,no profit/no loss but the pair is currently trading lower right now.

2) As mentioned on Tuesday the USD is setup for a major bottom on 18th Sept/21st Sept 2009 and the USD is so tightly interlinked to the Equities Market that a rebound from the USD will cause a sell off in the Equities.

3) It does not mean that the Equities will be down a lot tonight it is more of a timing whereby the top will be put in place which will result in a fierce sell off in the subsequent days ahead.

However i would still like to recommend that if you have holdings but you are still bullish for a final surge to lighten your holdings to reduce your exposure simply because it is easier to lose money than keep it. Everyone has this problem,there is no exception,the only way we can contain this is by making sure when our odds are lower we risk lesser. When our odds are good,we risk more.

Is the High for 2009 already in place?

2009-09-15T09:53:00.004+08:00

First of all,the recap market has rallied about 6 months with 3 months being light volume in the US market drifting it higher and hot money from the tremendous money printing by government worldwide in the form of stimulus and bond purchase driving up the stock price in Asia. Problems have not been solved,it has just been prolonged by the Economists in the hope that time will repair the problems.

Despite the so many structure problems in the economy, we have to respect the technical of the market simply because knowing the fundamental will not help you make money unless you are working as an analyst or economist. The key thing we would want to know is which direction should be position to make money. The economy doesn't really matter in this case,be it a good economy or bad economy as long as there is no panic money can still be made.

I believed TONIGHT 15th September 2009 is likely to be a defining night. As i state earlier the DOLLAR really controls the direction we will be heading and there has been a peculiar developments in the last 2 weeks.

1) Previously when US data surprises to the upside dollar will sell down but lately when US data surprises to the upside,the dollar will rally.

2) The economic data from countries worldwide are starting to meet or miss expectations prior to the beating of them for 6 months consecutive citing a change in expectations. The market require more fuel to move.

Tonight has the all important Retail Sales which makes up of 70% of US GDP and it will be extremely interesting to watch how the dollar will react to it tonight.

Volume in the US has been extremely light for the past few weeks and even for yesterday and it would be crucial that we see volume coming back before we will have a clearer idea where we are going to head because Light volume ALWAYS FAVOR the UPSIDE.

Market movements may be slow before gaining speed in the 2nd half of today as people has been generally optimistic right now and they will be looking to buy in anticipation of estimate beating results from US which is making me slightly cautious that a possibility of a buy in anticipation and sell in realization is very likely to occur tonight and that the high may be in place already. That being said i have decided not to take any equities position for this and will be looking to position in the currencies market to prevent being caught on the wrong side. Market is more of in a sideways consolidation right now then showing a particular direction and while i have a special software to pinpoint the top in currencies(it's still approx 2-3 days before the low of USD will be in place however the Major Retail data may speed or slow the process),i have not actually found any stocks platform that allows me to program that in as of now.

There is a divergence in the volume indicators right now stating that it's undergoing distribution at the moment however until the rising trend line is broken,it is still possible for it to move to the upside. Watch 2600 as the first level of support

USD is the Key to the direction of the market

2009-09-12T00:38:00.002+08:00

I was watching the market intently for this week as i try to discern what is going on and sadly i had been wrong on the turning point in this market as dollar broke a key technical level and proceed to get crushed which drove the stocks to all time high and i pay a sizable sum for it as i gave my position trade some breathing space as there is no doubt in my mind that market is overpriced,over optimistic and that worst is to come in the future.

However that being said,1 cannot fight with the force of the market and i have to acknowledge my wrong and cut loss. The market is currently driving on pure momentum without any change in Fundamentals.

For students of the market you will know that the last wave is always the strongest wave. I do not know if the market will break out from here and move up sharply before we reverse however i decide to close off the loss trade and shifted to sidelines as the only element that controls the market right now is USD. It got crushed to an all time low for the past 9 months which saw the market move up(USD influence commodities,gold and international companies hence a weakening of USD will power up the index due to the heavy weightage)

Below is from a reliable source,my clients and friends had all gotten this email from me couple of weeks back now i deem it to be a suitable time to put this up on the site. Definitely for people i do not know they will not get information from me as timely as those i know.

2010 Should Be A Doozy!

2009 is now being called the turnaround of the "great recession." For the sake of the world, I suppose this is better than the "Second Great Depression." However, one must ask, what has really been changed?

Easy money was, and remains to be the cause of every boom and bust. Now, let's examine the current scenario and see how it stacks up. It could be said that the $8000 first time home buyers tax credit is easy money. Then isn't the recent $4500 cash for clunkers deal also easy money? What about the greatest coordinated global stimulus package the world has ever seen, isn't this more easy money? Accompany this with the greatest bailout in world history of the "too big to fail" banks and you are left with an insurmountable amount of easy money -- believe it or not, this is only the beginning. So, what has really changed? The answer is simple, absolutely nothing. Aside from the feverish printing of further ill-considered, easy money dollars, foreclosures, delinquent mortgages, lack of savings by U.S. Citizens, and poor job creation will be around for the next 7-10 years.

2010 should behold one very similar trait to other zero years of a decade, and that is down. It is very possible to see a retest of the 2009 lows and possibly a move lower. This market is not going much further for years to come. Repeating what brought this economy to its current state will only perpetuate the current problems, and prolong a cure. Consider this, if an individual maxes out their credit lines, they cannot simply wipe their hands clean and obtain new lines in an effort to bail itself out. Well that is exactly what the U.S. Government and most other governments including China have done. Regardless of political standpoint, be it democrat or republican both are as guilty as the other. Stimulus plans have been taking place since the beginning of the George W. Bush administration in 2001 and have actually grown with the Obama administration in 2009. Has spending been cut? The answer is NO! Both parties have spent like drunken sailors back at port from a year at sea.

This market has rallied on a bombardment of money printing and liquidity being thrown into the system, it's that simple. 2010 will undoubtedly be a reality check for the public. However, the odds stack up high in favor of the government printing and throwing more money at the problem. In fact, if Las Vegas put odds on this event occurring it would most likely be an even money bet right now. Currently, this can all be seen as an attempt to re-inflate this flat tire. The question remains, how many patches can someone put on a tire before they need a whole new wheel? Going forward the powers that be better hope the flat tire doesn't cause the car (economy) to drive off a cliff, or hit a brick wall, where it is beyond repair.

Nicholas Santiago,
InTheMoneyStocks.com
The Leader In Market Technical Guidance

More banks fail in consecutive weeks while the economic data looks better?

2009-08-30T11:42:00.000+08:00

There is a very worrying trend that is developing in US and that is the more failure of banks in recent weeks. Economic data is not as worst as previously but why are the banks suddenly failing so rapidly?

To be fair there were some changes to the ruling in banks and if they fail to bolster their capital level they'll fail(The news was release in a down tone and it was only release once as the media keep focusing on the "good" news)

Currently the market has shake off the effect thus far but 84 banks failing by End of Aug is definitely a record number and banks are the lifeblood of the economy,the fact that so many has failed and is leading to a consolidation in the industry is a near term very bearish sign which should have taken more attention than what it current represents(although it is not attracting attention for the time being,eventually it will) but from a medium to long term point of view this move is good for US because this is the world of business where the weed will be taken out and only the strong will survive and grow on their business.

Asia is stated as a much resilient part of the world but the fact is we are still a pretty much export orientated economy and US and Europe still holds a major key to our prosperity or decline. Near term wise(next 3 months) i am not optimistic of equities due to the already huge run up and it would appear that the market is not forward looking for 6 months for Asia but rather they are looking forward by as much as 12 months!! and of course i do not believe that we will ever see the 3,000 or 3,500 that so many people has started to come out to say that it will be reach by next year etc. Simply because currently it is a liquidity led rally as governments worldwide is basically PRINTING MONEY and DUMP IT into the economy. This is a very dangerous move that if not executed properly will lead to run away inflation in the future. As i have stated previously i believe inflation will run riot in the next 18-24 months due to the inability of government to withdraw their stimulus from the system.

Truth be told,we are not out of the woods yet but due to the huge amount of money sloshing in the world right now,there will not be a sizable drop unless the money flow is restricted(Much like what has happened to China,they are curbing the free flow of money and that lead to a tremendous drop within weeks in SSE)

I have shortlisted some companies to invest in the future and i will let it out when the time is right. They are picked base on the sector they are from,the future prospect as well as the existing financial strength of the company but most of them are now already at price that are not a bargain hence i am not in a hurry to pick them up.

Dollar,Market Outlook as well as the value of a car

2009-08-26T22:47:00.002+08:00

Last wkend i foresee a strong rally after a strong Friday close which set the stage for a weekly bullish candle however for the week till today the market has been up alright however the surge has not been as strong as anticipated.

1 Key factor that contributed to this is the strength of the dollar. As opposed to previously whereby a good data from US indicate a strong selldown in the dollar as well as a powerful move up in the equities. This week has been pretty much lacking from what has been happening all the way since March. Is this a sign of the impending turnabout i anticipate? Actually i was looking for a strong surge before a strong drop but it looks like the odds of it happening is very slim. In fact i am starting to get pretty worried by the fact of the lack of strong rally in the equities when we are already in the mid of the week and it does not bode good for people still long in the equities market. The impending turnabout in the super strong rally is still in focus with a view of a pretty long period of correction once it is underway.

Make no mistake,we are nowhere near the end of the tunnel of recovery. We are just not doing as bad as had been expected however it is still bad and it won't be good for years to come.

I expect a focus on inflation again in 12-24 months time and what i mean by that is an explosion of inflation which will result in central bank worldwide tightening the credit which in turn will drive our equities even lower. All of you should start focusing on commodities as well as other inflation hedge instrument in approx 12 months time.

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The 2nd part that i wish to touch on is what does your car actually cost?
Car is a convenient item but it is also a very costly item more so than you think. I will just assume that a car cost $1,000 to maintain per month.

Have you ever thought how much it would be if you invest this $1,000 per month?
Assuming at 5% growth per year(which is ridiculously easy since you factor in dividend returns as well and basically you just require a net 2% capital gain) This will come up to about 800k in 30 years time.

800k!!! how many of you have this amount of money? You may think that cannot be la how will it come up to so much but i can assure you 800k is a very sure number that you can hit if you set aside 1,000 per mth for 30 years. You will have more but not less because good unit trust in asia has shown that they can give a return of 24% avg compounded returns for the past 10 years. I don't really expect this kind of explosive growth to be maintain for too long but a 10% per annum for the next 30 years is entirely possible but i am only using 5% to project??? I am already superbly conservative.

1 needs to split their methods of accumulation into 3 parts 1) Guaranteed money you will have when you retire 2) Core amount that you should have if you have been following a consistent investment 3) Speculative short term positions that should give your returns a boost or dip depending on your own performance

Part 1 and Part 2 should have covered 80-100% of your retirement needs and the 3) is really just a bonus for you but the bottomline is if you do not have half a million when it's time to retire then you can forget about having a enjoyable retirement life. Today i was just at NorthPoint Yishun and during the underground tunnel linking from the Mrt and Northpoint there are like so many old folks selling tissue paper or other things over there.

Do they want to do this? Obviously i think anyone if given the choice will not do this but if you don't have money,you don't have income then you will basically have to do anything. You can make a difference to the lifestyle you can enjoy by planning today.

Please clear away your misconception that Financial Planning is for the rich because it is not Financial Planning is for those that are not rich to help you become rich. A person that is rich naturally has financial planning because that's how they stay rich or become richer as they can maximize their usage of their capital. But it is ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT for a average man down the street to plan because you don't have huge sum of money like somebody rich if you still don't maximize your returns you will have a very difficult time at your old age....

I hope i help to shed some light for those that are not rich but thinks that Financial Planning is redundant. You don't become rich by not planning in fact you will most likely be even further from being rich because you never take the step forward to help yourself. Just like when you do a project at work you need to plan to ensure that everything is going as according to plan. It is the same for our life,we need to plan how to achieve and DO IT so that you can reach your goal.

Alex Koh
AXA Financial Adviser
HP : 96836977

So as you can see,your car is not just a expense that is not cheap,if you utilize the amount you use to maintain a car,for a person that does not spend a lot,essentially in 30years time he/she can retire

Bernanke pumping the market

2009-08-24T08:02:00.000+08:00

Dow Jones close strongly for the week as Bernanke pump the market after strong news showing that the economy has SLOW DOWN in its drop

A strong surge in the indices is anticipated for this week but i foresee a even more powerful drop in the next 2 weeks just as i have mentioned that the turning point will come in End Aug/Beginning Sept.

The hype and pumping by the US policymakers on the market has been overwhelming as they just keep coming out with "good" news 1 after another keeping the sentiment towards the bullish side but eventually it will run out and the earnings will come into play and will lead to a slow drawn out correction phase as the market has overprice the strength of the recovery. The market is just running on pure fuel of sentiment and not on any logical thinking or data.

So does it mean that a buy or a sell?
I would say at this point and for a further 6 months,individual stock picking will outperform the indices as a whole and as long as the company you have meets 1) Revenue Growth 2) Little debt 3)Strong operating cash flow 4) Plans on how to fuel the growth in the next 1-3 years. That company will be well-positioned to grow.

A company that can grow its business and have the ability to grow without diluting the shareholder's value is important.

There are still many headwinds ahead and i believe months down the road the confidence of the global economy will be decimated again though not as serious as the October when Lehman collapse whereby within 1 month the rout on the global market has struck fear in everybody's heart.

Make hay while the sun is still shining but always set a stoploss and be ready to get out of the market at any sign of trouble.

Danger moving forward

2009-08-19T21:00:00.005+08:00

Next year will prove to be a testy period for the equities and the world as a whole.

What is happening right now?
Deflation is gripping worldwide,to all of us it is a good thing because everything is going to be cheaper however for anyone in the high management it is a bad news because it leads to falling profit which also leads to them getting less pay and who is in charge of the big decisions of the world?

Those that are highly paid of course and they will do any and everything possible to safeguard their money which has force government worldwide to do massive scale of money printing and injection into the system. This is really caused by 1) Excessive expansion during boom times 2) Hogging of money and redircting of money into the wrong place(Instead of investment into business the money flow into investment of stocks and all other financial instruments) This is leading to a massive destructive cycle because there is no way that bright times will come anytime soon and people will realize their fallacy in buying based on the bright times coming soon scenario.

There are a lot of excesses that needs to be work out and many companies will go bust or M&A as a result in the course of the next 2 years but the really trying period will be the next 6 months and why do i say that?

Companies has manage to beat expectations because of cost cutting but eventually they won't be able to cut any cost and with the unemployment rate still going to creep up well into next year the consumption side is going to be hit and companies earnings will start to disappoint in the 1st and 2nd quarter results of next year.(NOTE i still think 4th quarter we may surprise to the upside) Even if we manage to get past this there is a 2nd obstacle standing ahead for us and that's HYPER INFLATION which is the result of the massive printing of the government.

The road ahead remains thorny and unclear and i would suggest that 1 should not take a position for more than 2 months in this type of environment especially after the massive surge for the past 5 months.

The market will not correct in a straight line but no doubt it will correct in a zig zag manner.(My take on the regional market & STI moving forward in the next 2 months) The only thing i had not anticipate was how furious the SSE has correct over the course of 3 weeks from 3500 all the way to 2800 today.

Will it happen to regional market?
I deem it unlikely but not impossible hence caution should be exercise. Like i have said in my previous post if you are having a long term position(Unit trust etc.) you can still continue with the Regular top up but if it is individual stocks,you should hold your horses and not jump in so quickly.

No matter how the market reacts your diversified investment(Unit trust) will grab onto everything but when you are taking a speculative position you cannot do it the same way. It has been shown that if you are invested in a diversified portfolio throughout the ups and downs it can still grow to a very sizable amount it is a lot more than most people individual investing despite you being able to gain the kind of returns you can get from a Unit Trust in 1 trade because when we invest we tend to have an opinion or a bias and as you know. Most people are always wrong which is the reason for systemic investing.

I am here to help you limit your downside and try to stretch your upside. Because every trader will know how much they make is dependent on how they limit their downside and maximize their upside.

Nobody will be right all the time this is a fact you may see yourself savvy but are you more savvy than Warren Buffett? Even for him there are times he got it wrong but he's super rich,he can get it wrong and still be comfortable but if you do not do any risk management and your stock picks fail you the impact on you is VERY BIG. Which is why you will need me to help you with your diversification of assets and reduction of your risk elements.

So talk to me today so that i can help you by managing your risk for you.

Weekend Analysis for Next Week

2009-08-16T09:29:00.001+08:00

Friday mark a pretty key event for those that are observant.

How many of you realize how long has it been since Friday is down? DJ has not been down on a Friday ever since March and being down on this Friday is a sign of grave weakness indeed.

Although i had been expecting the correction to gain in momentum at the last week of Aug or first week of Sept. I believe next week the equities market could experience a sell off. Although if you look at it,the drop probably isn't much as compared to how much they have surged for the past 5 months. But no doubt the loss would still be staggering for people that had keep buying into the market and not getting out.

The sideway consolidation that we had been getting to me it seems like it's the distribution of "Smart" money while the retailers step up to buy every and any retracement. Which is of course a dangerous approach to take. Momentum has been drying up for quite a while and i believe there is a likelihood of a sharp sell off this coming week which will bring people back to reality. I would not buy into this sharp sell off in this coming week.

Overall STI should be trading in a range and fairly well-supported till our IR comes up early next year. I only expect STI to fall more substantially when IR is up as the buying in anticipation dries up and people sells on realization that no buyer would further step up to buy in Singapore Market as it has been overvalued and a decent correction is needed to make it healthy.

However regional market would not be as lucky as us as they did not have anything upcoming attractions that can prop up their market. There will be a very good entry opportunity within the next 3 months and i urge every and anyone that is cash rich at the sideline to talk to me so that i can help you gain entry into the equities market with controlled risk because face it. No matter what people say about bonds or putting in banks whatever over a longer timeframe(20-25 years) Equities provides the lowest risk with highest benefit PROVIDED you sit through all the ups and downs and did not just surrender.

Stay cautious folks

The Direction i am heading

2009-08-14T18:23:00.005+08:00

Throughout the course of my career for the past 1 year there are 2 vastly differently feelings that i have experienced.

1) Disappointing moments whereby i couldn't convince a prospect to become my client so that i can really help them to plan it ONCE plan it RIGHT. A lot of people do not understand HOW IMPORTANT it is to be planning right and how it can come back to haunt you in the future. It is not just about the product and the price. It is REALLY THE ADVISER that makes the WHOLE LOT OF DIFFERENCE in the lifestyle you will lead in the future. Being a good salesman does not equate to being a good planner nor does age have to do with how well a person can plan. Look around you and at your Financial Planner. Is he/she a good salesman or a good planner for you. You should straight away be able to tell the difference. Gone are the times that financial advisers are just product pushers. To keep up with time i am heading in the advisory road by PINPOINTING to you the THREATS ahead and HOW TO MANAGE YOUR RISK AGAINST THE THREAT. This is DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT IS UNIQUE to me. I am 100% Confident that there will be no other person like me. This is the VALUE of ME.

Time is an asset to young people right now because they can get better bargains by planning earlier but this asset is something that will slowly dwindle away you don't have all the time in the world to slowly make decision or you could END UP LIKE Lehman's Brother. The incidence already serves as a GREAT WARNING against the lack of Risk Management and i am sure if you look around you,you may see people in grave situations right now because of unexpected events and PARTICULARLY BECAUSE they DID NOT TRANSFER their risk away.

I will show you the big picture be it to help you manage your asset in meeting your long term goals as well as taking charge of your short term speculation needs obviously i won't make much calls in a year currently because the market is still in a very wildly volatile and unclear stage as of yet and i believe that short term speculation should be tone down for some time however that does not mean you should stop investing and that's where the big picture planning comes in. You can be sure you will always be enjoying returns that beat inflation by a far stretch but speculation is really all about TIMING. You do not need to be always watching the market and you do not need to trade more than a few times a year for short term because being right 3-4 times in a year is SUFFICIENT,a 8-10% return from being in the right trade amounts to 40% in a year and there you have it you are ON PAR with the RETURNS THE WORLD BEST FUND MANAGER can afford you(George SOROS) Active speculation or trading is the tombstone of any retailers.

There are a few incidence whereby i regret not doing more just take the recent Shanghai plunge for example and the sudden talk of China Growth Peaking out in Q2. This hasn't been said until recently but this is definitely not something new. EVERYONE that understands how economics work KNOW that China Growth is going to peak out in Q2 MONTHS before now. It is just the retailers that does not know months back because the newspaper or news company are fanning and hyping the market up hooking all the retailers to buy in while the funds unload.

A NEWS that becomes too LOUD is ALWAYS WRONG,look back at the news and the ensuring movement that happen for the past 2 years and i am sure you agree with me. But agreeing is one thing many people will still continue to make the same mistake over and over again chasing after the crowd. Just 2 weeks ago i met a client of 1 of my colleague who is surrendering his a large sum Investment after bagging huge returns in a span of 7-8 months. If he is just surrendering i am fine with it you know cause he's making a profit but he channel the money over to another agent to invest in another Unit Trust and within this 2 weeks is down above 10%

The only thing i regret is not being persistent enough to advise him against doing it and that's the 2nd type of disappointment that i have encountered in this trade

But no doubt i have no lack of positive experience as well because those that i had planned for. They THANK me for spending the time with them and for helping them to do things right as well as not paying for unnecessary costs. Not all plans can be stacked to be claim together. There are plans out there that will only pay out ONCE no matter how many you have and paying for. That's really A WASTE OF RESOURCES but for somebody who is just being sold a product may not realize it while paying for it for years and years but if the need for claim arises down the road and realize it cannot be claimed!!! Imagine how you would feel to be paying for something but not getting anything in return!!!

Overall being in this trade has definitely helped me learn lots of things and i hope to be able to continue on my path to being someone that provides the RIGHT ADVISE and expand my social circle so that years down the road we can all RETIRE COMFORTABLELY.

Just a single last thing,if you haven't thought about retirement when you are in your 20s - 30s you will be in a VERY ROUGH RIDE in your retirement because TIME IS OF ESSENCE for Investment and going ahead in the next 20-30 years due to flowing of hot money into Asia region as a whole,if you DON'T TAKE THE RIGHT ACTIONS TODAY you will HAVE MANY PROBLEMS 20 years down the road.

Below is an email i got from a broker from Australia. He is someone that i am heading towards to by providing people that does not understand how the Financial World WORKS and ensure the long term business relationship. It doesn't help him to bust his clients' account because that means he has less business.

The same is true for me,i will help you plan correct so that you can have more spare cash to invest(through me) and safeguard your future. Risk Management is just PART 1,Making Money is Part 2. This is also the reason why i need to meet EVEN MORE PEOPLE!!! Because a salesperson can just sell you one time then come back sell you 2 3 4 5 times and still not addressing your problem FULLY. But my aim is if possible i will just do it in 1-2 plans so that you can just have the money to invest and grow without worry. So if i cannot be selling you too many plans,i cannot sell you when i am not confident of the market outlook you have to help me by introducing more people so that i will always be around to provide you all with the knowledge,the service that YOU DESERVE.

I will be starting to pinpoint the dates of reversal as well as the dates that i will be looking to enter the market by this weekend. Any future prediction will only be made in a span of 3 months. Speculative wise I can't see anything beyond 3 months. But long term investing in Asia will reap you tremendous gains for your long term planning.

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Time for a Yarn

Well the various markets around the world are having a nice upward momentum at the moment. This could possibly carry on for a little while longer.
Half the analysts out there think its all over red rover and everything is rosy in the garden and the other half think we are in for a rocky ride.
Here are some interesting facts : Bloomberg terminals , used by traders and hedge fund managers around the world, had 10,720 less users than before the markets meltdown last year. Where have they gone? Driving taxi's ?

Proctor and Gamble , the company that sells consumer staples [ the products people cannot do without], like personal Hygiene , detergents , cleaning products, pharmacy drugs, disposal nappies, etc. still managed to lose volume last quarter . People are cutting back.
The good [or better than expected] news on the employment front ,both here and in the US was job losses were not as bad as expected. US now around 9.4 and Aussie 5.8.
The worrying thing is that when companies report lately, it is not uncommon to hear that they although year on end it was not a good result, they beat Analysts' estimates ,usually marginally, by cutting costs , not by increasing revenue. Company's can only cut so far and if business doesn't improve on its turnover, then where too?

I will update trades and IVI [intrinsic index] at the end of this week.

Brendon Goldsworthy & Team
Private Client Advisor

I had only received these this Thursday 13th Aug 2009 but you should have realized that the concern he raises is something that i have already raise earlier. You would not imagine yourself getting this kind of information because you are not under the high networth and wide social contact region. But you have a choice and a chance to access these through ME.

A sign to be afraid to be VERY AFRAID

2009-08-12T23:29:00.001+08:00

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=apoXeTSNhGNg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aSYyB7dKTJRQ

I do not know if you all have realize these but majority of the retailers are standing on the WRONG side.

Do you still remember in March 2009 when the Short level has been at the highest since the crisis start or in May 2009 when the short interest was at its highest when compared across past 2 months and look at what has happened?

Market has rallied off it catching all the retailers on the wrong side on the move and what are we seeing today?

The 2 links is adding further evidence that the drop that i am anticipating is ever more likely. I am not saying you should short right away but you should be starting to look for short signals by next week as well as end of Aug as i believe we are more of less at the tipping point.

I suggest a FURTHER reduction in your equities holding should there be any rally going into the next 1-2 weeks with a stand to accumulate when it is doing its correction down.

Finally my laptop is back

2009-08-12T14:48:00.001+08:00

While my laptop is sent for repair and inconvenient to come online i borrowed my sis laptop to come online to post on the pending danger at end of Aug and beginning of Sept.

From the past week,i am sure you have seen signs of the cracking of the invincibility of the equities market although i am not too concern about it till end of the month because i believe it will be in more of a whipsaw action for the remainder 2 weeks before a sustained picking up of momentum to the downside. I will sent the target for STI for accumulation of stocks to my clients and/or people in my private blog so that we can all capitalize on the profit which should come about before this year comes to an end.

No doubt i believe that there will be more road bumps ahead but in actual fact what one should be seeking should not be measured by the dollar returns rather it should be by the percentage return because how much profit you make is relative to how much capital you have.

I have been trying to hold back people from investing and on trimming their exposure since mid July,it turns out that the market has more legs to go and we miss the upside but if you miss the upside at least don't go in when the downside is imminent. There are folks whereby invested a bulk of their money in early Aug 2009 on all the overextended market and as a result within 2 weeks lost more than 10% in their invested amount. Is that a lot? It sure is!! I believe the target of everybody out there is on hitting a steady overall 5% increase in your portfolio. Ensure your money is really growing and for those that have honed on their insights aim for 20% return for your short term portfolio(less than 1 year) Active trading is not a good way for most people to accumulate their wealth unless you have exceptional talent and has spent more 3 years worth of raw time watching the market and learning the psychology of the market. You need a SYSTEMATIC PLAN and you need to have the KNOWLEDGE to capitalize on it. If you don't have either of those you have to capitalize on other people's edge. We all have our niche that we are good at. Nobody can be good at all things but at least be the SMART 1 and leave it in the hands of those that are good.

Gone are the days whereby Financial Advisers are just product pushers,you should be expecting more and i will give you more knowledge and edge than what you asked for.

All of us wish to enjoy our retirement but look at your bank account,look at your portfolio will you have the means to retire? Looking back 20 years ago how many items can you buy with $2? Now look at the present,how much can you buy with $2 now? Fast track into the future how much do you think you will need? With Government worldwide running riot in their Quantitative Easing(Go google for clear explaniations) since the beginning of the breakdown in the Financial System. Inflation is bound to be a problem in the future your money is going to be worth a lot less than what is worth now and the gap in the rich and the poor will only get BIGGER. The least you can do is let someone who will do the right thing for you take control of your finances. I will earn an income from it while you will also be worry free on anything in regards to your financial. We will both achieve what is good for us and enjoy our life in the future together years down the road.

If you had been walking around you would probably have seen old folks selling tissue paper. Do you feel good to see that? Of course not right,but what if 1 day you are in this kind of situation? Singapore is still considered quite well off. In other countries you can see countless more folks like that!! Eventually if you only look to enjoy the present but not plan for the future you may need to do that too because you can't rely on CPF to fund your retirement because it won't last long. All of these are a reminder to the difficulties we will face in our life ahead and we need to be mindful of it.

I send out occasional email to those in my msn email list on the key happenings in the world(in regards to the flow of equities and direction of it) and i hope it will help everyone avoid some of the pitfalls that is present in this highly volatile market.

If you are interested to be put into that list just add me in MSN wlk77@hotmail.com i sent that out for free because it is more of the fundamental side. I have been travelling around since my laptop is down and i have seen a lot and hear a lot of difficult situations down at the grassroot level but end of it,no matter what advices anybody gives you are the 1 that can make a difference to your life by making the correct choice. Nobody can force something to you,you must be open to accepting.