pick on football

2007-09-19T15:32:00.000-07:00

pick on football
How do I get the picks each week?
The majority of the selections will be added to the Free Picks area on the home page. Info regarding 5* Top Plays along with other selections will be reserved for those who sign up for the email list. The email list is free to join. New visitors please note that emails are NOT sent out daily as they are with other services. All emails sent are solely to inform you of updates or additional plays and your email address is kept confidential. See the bottom of this page for more details.

How do you rate the picks?
The rating are detailed here. Simply put, the games are rated between 3 stars (3*) and 5 stars (5*). Starting in 2007 I have eliminated free 1* picks. The free selections that appear on the home page are 3* Regular Plays. Those are games that I feel have solid advantages. I won't waste my time or yours with anything less. Don't be misled by the term "free picks". The picks you see listed on the home page are solid 3* plays which are the equivalent of an average service play. The only difference is that you're not paying to view them. All picks will be monitored and I fully expect that when the dust settles at the end of the year, these "free plays" will again produce better results than the paid selections of many handicappers.

Why are you giving away so much for free?
I've been releasing selections for years in a variety of ways. I've also dealt with many people through this site that I'd like to see continue to win. The goal is to help with that and continue to provide a high quality football information site. But important commitments currently make it impractical to run this site as a traditional paid service for 26 straight weeks. However, I continue to spend a significant amount of time taking in NFL information and doing the research needed for selections and fantasy football updates. When time permits and I recognize good opportunities I'll share those opinions for casual visitors and those who sign up for the email list. If you appreciate what you're getting out of this site and want to show your support, throughout the year take a couple minutes to check out the advertising you see listed.

How many picks do you expect to make each week?
Each week of the regular season is different but I typically make 2 to 5 full rated NFL picks per week (5*Top Plays and/or 3* & 4* Regulars). Each pick includes at least a brief analysis and sometime more. Most if not all 5* Tops will be released solely through the email to list members. There may be weeks where I don't add any NFL picks or fantasy information at all. This could be due to matchups that don't rate highly enough in my opinion or simply due to other commitments. I'll only release selections when I've had the opportunity to research them to my satisfaction and recommend them with confidence.

When do you post your picks?
Typically the NFL selections will be posted by Sunday mornings or earlier. Monday night games may be posted later than the other plays. NFL Preseason games are the exception because current info, line moves, and roster decisions are more significant. I may have to post closer to gametime once all of the important questions are cleared up. When there are too many question marks, experience has taught me it's better to simply pass. The idea is to focus on games that have significant advantages, not just a small edge.
Fantasy football info will be posted throughout the week when it's available with no set schedule.

How do you decide which games to pick each week?
I look at each side and total using a number of different methods. Essentially, proven statistical analysis and other numbers identify potential picks each week. However, numbers can only take you so far and can sometimes be misleading. There are many things that don't show up in boxscores or hilight shows and there's no substitute for watching the actual games to get a true feel for the teams.
Once that's done I analyze all the subjective factors that will potentially affect the game. That's where experience comes in, knowing which factors are important and how they typically affect the outcomes. Psychological and motivational factors are quite important to the way I view the games. I then look at all the other information such as injuries, weather, recent info, and other special variables that can come into play.

Are your picks monitored?
Absolutely. Check the links listed on the Previous Results page. Past results and links are listed for the info of my visitors. There are many handicappers that don't have their picks monitored by an independent source and often it's because they want to exaggerate their success or hide the fact they aren't very good at what they do. Some are downright awful. View these types of handicappers with extreme caution and keep in mind the industry is full of people that have no real clue about sports handicapping but want to scam you into paying for their services.

Do you offer picks for sports other than NFL football?
I have in the past but at this time I'll only be posting NFL picks and information. However, my college football picks were exceptionally strong in 2006 and the bowl selections were perfect. I may add the occassional selection if I spot a worthwhile opportunity which could include a handful of bowl games.

Do you keep my information confidential?
Yes. I take that responsibility very seriously and at NO time will I distribute e-mail addresses or any other information. The e-mail you sign up with is strictly for sending you updates. Personally, I think there should be a special place in hell for e-mail spammers, about 50 degrees hotter than the rest.
My pool is doing well but it doesn't show up in the pool rankings. Why?Your pool doesn't have at least 5 players in it who made picks last week. The pool rankings only include pools that have at least 5 members. This prevents small pools from dominating the pool standings.
I created a pool that I don't want or need anymore. How do I delete it?You can delete the pool yourself. Go to the pool page (use the Pool Rankings links in your stats box on the left side of each page). Then click on the second red arrow link "Access the Poolmaster Menu". Check the Delete box and then click the "Submit Changes" button.
How do I get the password to join a pool?You have to ask. A good place to do so is on the Bulletin Board. Remember though, pools are mostly meant for private groups or office pools who want to be ranked against their buddies. So they may not want outsiders to join. But don't fret if you're not in a pool. Everyone is part of the entire site "pool" and you'll be ranked against everybody, regardless of whether you're in a pool or not. Of course, you can always start your own pool and then advertise it on the Bulletin Board.
What does it mean when the spread is "No Line"?This means that the spread hasn't been set yet, usually because there is an injury to a key player in the game or because the team played in the Monday night game. This also means that I will update the line later in the week. If for some reason (and this happens very rarely) Vegas never sets a line on the game and I can't update it, pick who you think will win the game straight up -- because "No Line" is then equivalent to an "Even" line or "Pick `em" game.
When and how often do you update the spreads?I post the new schedule and initial spreads after I run the final weekly results (usually early Tuesday morning after Monday Night Football). There are usually a couple of "No Line" games early in the week. I try to update these by Wednesday evening at the latest. If I can't update and make the spreads final by Wednesday, I will post a note on the home page. This means each week I usually make only two spread updates -- the initial posting and the "No Line" updates on Wednesday.
Are my picks scored against the spreads that are posted when I pick or against the final updated spreads?Your picks are scored against the final spreads not the ones posted when you submit your picks. So, it's to your advantage to check your picks later in the week if you submit your picks Tuesday or Wednesday.
Why do you use 1/2 point spreads?To prevent "pushes" or "ties versus the spread". In Vegas, if the line is 7 points and the favorite wins by exactly 7 points, it's called a "push", nobody wins or loses, and the bettor gets his or her money back. To make sure there is a winner and loser for each game on The Weekly NFL Picks Page, I use 1/2 point spreads so there's no chance for a "push".
Where do you get the point spreads each week?Vegas Insider. I take an average of the Vegas spreads and round to the nearest half-point. In some cases where there is "No Line" or the line changes during the week, the spread on The Weekly NFL Picks Page may be a little different.
What if I don't want to pick against the spread? I wanna pick the games straight up, win/loss.Sorry. I've run the site for 11 years with the spread. Frankly, I think it makes picking much more interesting. Outside of that, I do get plenty of these requests, but I simply can't run two versions of the site to score picks both ways.

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2006-11-13T08:21:00.000-08:00

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