The Happy Arab News Service

Synchronicity

2009-12-22T16:33:00.008+02:00

December 22, 2009

Trouble seeing? You're not alone

If you are one of those fanatics of rationalism who believe in science, you may find the following piece of information very illuminating. A new report finds that significantly more Americans are nearsighted today than before.

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) – Significantly more Americans are nearsighted today than in the early 1970s, a report released today indicates.

Nearsightedness, also called myopia, is when the eyes focus incorrectly to make distant objects appear blurred. This common problem can be treated by corrective eyeglasses or contact lenses or refractive surgery.

You see guys, my grandma already knew that too much reading can be bad for your eyes. In her time there were no computers, but I bet that today she could have easily figured it all out. It's probably not for nothing that we are talking about myopia and not its opposite. Probably this has something to do with the proliferation of near range activities such as computers, books and TV in the modern society. Though I admit that this may not be all too obvious to some people.

Researchers don't know why more Americans are becoming nearsighted, and "at this time, we really don't know how to prevent myopia," Dr. Susan Vitale of the National Eye Institute, part of the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland, noted in a telephone interview with Reuters Health. "It's really important to get regular eye examinations from an eye care professional," she said.

The thing is that I've never met a person whose eyesight was improved by reading or working with computers, but I did meet quite a few who claimed rapid deterioration as a result of computer work or too much reading. As to why we don't really know how to prevent myopia, an intense debate with one of those rational individuals comes to my mind. The debate was held no more and no less than on a forum of the Alexander Technique of which one of the fundamental tenets is: Use affects function!!! The debate was actually triggered by a discussion of the infamous Bates Method and the person in question citing various scientific research refused to admit the possibility that misuse of the eyes and the poor eyesight can be connected. If it were not for the man's medical background, I doubt he would have held such an irrational position.

As to the scientists, it's good to know that at least they were not entirely surprised.

This wasn't all that surprising, Vitale told Reuters Health, given reports from Asia, Australia, Africa, and Israel indicating that the prevalence of myopia is increasing in those regions. "This is something that has been on the radar for a while," Vitale said, "but it's the first time that we have tried to nail it down as carefully as possible in the US."

Yet, not everything is lost. Some new research is promising a rapid conversion of science with the common sense within less than a century.

There have also been studies linking myopia to "more close-up work" such as reading, sitting at a computer screen, or using small electronic devices. This is a "reasonable" possibility, Vitale said, given how work and entertainment habits have changed in the past 30 years.

"An interesting study" from Australia, Vitale noted, found evidence that children who spent the most time outdoors were the least likely to suffer from myopia. "Outdoors you have different lighting conditions and you are looking at distant objects instead of near objects," Vitale noted, and both of these factors may have an effect on the risk of myopia.

Source: Reuters (via Yahoo)

Well, definitely a very interesting study from Australia, the world is full of surprises.

PS

If you are wondering what this has to do with demography, the Middle East and let alone synchronicity, you will know it later.

Where is my bicycle?

2009-12-21T16:55:00.012+02:00

Last updated: December 22, 2009

December 10, 2009

7 Dec 09 Yazd Iran. A Baseeji jeep ramming into a motorcycle with fleeing protesters. The two guys seem to have escaped unhurt.

December 21, 2009

Grand Ayatollah Montazeri died at age 87
Prepare for another round of mass destruction of bicycles. This time at the very heart of the Vatican of the Islamic Republic.

December 22, 2009

The Imperative Test

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is said to follow hardline Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi as his spiritual mentor, has not issued a condolence message even though Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei issued a message of condolence to the family of the grand ayatollah within hours of his death.

In his message, Ayatollah Khamenei acknowledged the Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s theological credentials by calling him “the eminent jurisprudent” and praising his services to his mentor, the founder of the 1979 Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, while continuing to question the grand ayatollah’s political positions.

Referring to the dispute over the execution of political prisoners that led to the grand ayatollah’s resignation as successor to Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, Ayatollah Khamenei asked “God’s forgiveness” for the grand ayatollah for not passing the “imperative [divine] test” to become the supreme leader of Iran.

Seed Hasan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini and custodian of his shrine, who has shown support for the opposition, was also among the first to send condolences to the grand ayatollah’s family and followers.

Source: The National

What a nice picture of consensus and unity among the ranks of the Islamic Republic's establishment. As to the imperative tests for remaining the Supreme Leader, I would cautiously bet on Khamenei to find the one about destruction of bicycles particularly challenging. May Allah forgive him.

El Farouki - Air Stone

I am / was posting there . . .

2009-12-20T12:28:00.002+02:00

December 20, 2009

Rational Republic

Elimination of Sectarianism Revisited (Another attempt at reforming Lebanon's political system)

PS

From now on the section Global/World on the sidebar will also include all sorts of unrelated stuff. "Global" now means just about everything

December 1, 2009

Rational Republic

Elimination of Sectarianism: If Not Now, When? (Sectarianism in Lebanon)

Ray Hanania

Haaretz offers peek into Yalla Peace's "Settler-Refugee Exchange Program" (Talking peace with the Palestinians... Well, not so much talking there but you are welcome to drop your comments)

Salah Benlemqawanssa, the king of poppin, and the friends reenact the key milestones in the history of Israeli Arab attempts at peace negotiations

PS

Well, in truth it's probably some kind of hip hop contest, but it lends itself to interesting interpretations, in particular, if you think that Salah (the man with a hat) and Damon are acting out Israel and the USA

October 21, 2009

My company is sending me the next week to see some overseas customers. There'll be no or little posting for the next two weeks.

Nizo

Loyal to Fatah - To The Last Drop (Redesigning the Palestinian national anthem. The draft version of the new anthem follows below)

Not all Dubais...

2009-12-18T08:41:00.001+02:00

Have an Abu Dhabi nearby. Some are not so lucky...

Greece suffered its second debt-rating downgrade in a week, undermining the country's efforts to reassure markets that it can repair its battered finances.

Standard & Poor's Corp. cut its rating one notch to triple-B-plus and warned of future downgrades.

Source: WSJ

The Green Revolution(s)

2009-12-16T07:58:00.006+02:00

Last updated: December 16, 2009

June 26, 2009

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published: June 23, 2009

. . .

In a 2006 speech entitled “The Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia,” Yegor Gaidar, a deputy prime minister of Russia in the early 1990s, noted that “the timeline of the collapse of the Soviet Union can be traced to Sept. 13, 1985. On this date, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the minister of oil of Saudi Arabia, declared that the monarchy had decided to alter its oil policy radically. The Saudis stopped protecting oil prices, and Saudi Arabia quickly regained its share in the world market.

“During the next six months,” added Gaidar, “oil production in Saudi Arabia increased fourfold, while oil prices collapsed by approximately the same amount in real terms. As a result, the Soviet Union lost approximately $20 billion per year, money without which the country simply could not survive.”

. . .

Source: The New York Times

December 16, 2009

Tribute to Yegor Gaidar
Yegor Gaidar, the head of Russia's first post Communist government, died at the age of 53. My response to accusations that Gaidar has leveled Russia socially and economically with his policy of shock therapy in the comments section of an obituary by the Economist.

This debate about shock therapy is missing the point. When Gaidar took over the economy was completely demonetized. Companies switched to barter trading. In provinces local authorities were setting checkpoints to stop people moving goods out. The amount of money printed under the previous governments was such that probably decades of economic growth could not have neutralized it. Let alone that the economy could not grow anymore because of the demonetization, it was literally and figuratively disintegrating. Any government would have had to lift price controls in such situation.

The first few months of the reform were actually stunningly successful. The trade balance and current account went positive in a matter of weeks. Inflation was rapidly coming down and the rouble has become a money again, lines disappeared. If Russia has followed this line, it would have had today a normal economy. Poland enacted very similar reforms advised by the same Sachs and it's now one of the most successful economies of the region. Shock therapy had been implemented by several countries of the region from Poland to Estonia and it was mostly successful. Russia is one of those countries that did not, besides the first couple of months under Gaidar, and for some reason is now cited as an example of a failed shock therapy. People should check the facts better, and in particular the monetary inundation organized by Russia's Central Bank within months after Gaidar started with the reform. One can argue pro and contra Gaidar's reforms as much as he wants, but a shock therapy it was not as the reform was almost immediately sabotaged both by the Central Bank and by the Parliament. Shock therapy is based on abrupt monetary normalization, balanced budget and the stuff. This is something that did not exist in Russia for years before and after Gaidar.

And China is a very poor example for comparison as China's heavy industry has collapsed just as it did everywhere in Eastern Europe. North China is packed with areas that for all practical purposes are monuments to this industrial demise. But the share of this industry in the economy was very limited. The Chinese did not face such a problem. Their reforms started in the countryside. For a predominantly agrarian nation this is a very easy way to immediately boost production without having to invest a penny and without having to deal with a massive insolvent industry. There was little place in China for whatever kind of shock therapy.

Rest in peace

President Stolen

2009-12-11T13:31:00.009+02:00

Last updated: December 16, 2009 (This post is changing direction in line with the comments section...)

December 11, 2009

Grave robbers have stolen the corpse of the former Cyrus President who led the Island's Greek community to reject a UN sponsored re-unification deal.

Mounds of fresh earth lay at the site of the robbery in the Deftera village cemetery in a southwestern suburb of the Cypriot capital, Nicosia. Police investigators cordoned off the area and were searching the site. The motive was unclear.

Saturday is the first anniversary of the death of Papadopoulos, who was Cyprus' president from 2003 to 2008.

"The grave of the former president has been violated and the body robbed," said police spokesman Michalis Katsounotos.

Investigators believe the body was taken either late Thursday night or early Friday morning. The motive is unclear. Grave-robbing is rare in Cyprus.

"What happened is macabre and utterly condemnable. I am honestly still trying to comprehend what kind of warped minds could even think of doing such a thing, let alone actually carry it out. This is a perverse act that will sicken society in Cyprus," said the head of Cyprus' ruling AKEL party, Andros Kyprianou.

. . .

Kypros Chrysostomides, who served as justice minister under Papadopoulos, also expressed outrage.

"I totally condemn, with all my soul, this barbarous act of sacrilege," he said. "I cannot understand why somebody would want to do such a thing. ... Such barbarous acts only do damage to Cyprus."

Source: Associated Press

The feelings of shock and outrage in the Greek part of the Island stood in sharp contrast to the attitude prevalent in the Turkish part, where many people were dismayed by the fact that the grave robbers have not stolen the body of the president while Papadopoulos was still alive.

Last updated: December 16, 2009

The Bank of Israel has just published a study on the effect of child subsidies on fertility in Israel. I would not say that the study is really breaking new grounds, but it's remarkable for a very detailed per sector and sub sector demographic data. A couple of interesting graphs from the abstract of the report published online.

Click to enlarge

Source: The Effect of Child Allowances on Fertility

Some Notes on Thomas Friedman's "This I Believe"

2009-12-05T14:35:00.009+02:00

In his last article on Obama's decision to send thousands of marines to Afghanistan Thomas Friedman says that for him the point of going to Iraq was never about WMD, but to check if it's possible to bring change to the Arab world from within. Given the geographical centrality of Iraq in this part of the Middle East and its status of one of the cultural centers of the Arab world, a success in Iraq could have triggered a domino effect in neighboring countries and beyond. Says TF:

Iraq was about “the war on terrorism.” The Afghanistan invasion, for me, was about the “war on terrorists.” To me, it was about getting bin Laden and depriving Al Qaeda of a sanctuary — period. I never thought we could make Afghanistan into Norway — and even if we did, it would not resonate beyond its borders the way Iraq might.

Let me put it bluntly. Afghanistan is one of those hopeless countries whose geography, topography, ethnic composition... in short, just about everything militates against any possibility of this country growing into something better. To be fair to Afghanistan, in some aspects this country does resonates very well beyond its borders. It resonates well in the neighboring Pakistan drowning in a sea of suicide bombers and the last time Afghanistan was resonating in a big Western city, two skyscrapers went down in New York in the most spectacular manner. But this is just about it. In all other respects, TF is right, this is a very marginal and insignificant country. And in terms of nation building prospects, it's a waste of time and resources.

Compared to Afghanistan, Iraq may well be worth the effort. With all the bad blood between the Sunnis and Shias in Iraq, both sides still remain committed to some kind of Iraqi unity. If the USA can sort out the Arab Kurdish mess (Convincing both sides to split is also a reasonable solution), the things may start looking much better. Iraq is relatively well developed, the country is floating on a sea of oil. In short, this is probably the Arab country most suited for this kind of nation building, both because it's relatively easy to fix and because any democratic and social advances in Iraq immediately start trickling into at least a dozen of countries around. The Green Revolution in Iran may well have been influenced by the situation in Iraq.

Forget Iraq and Afghanistan, there is an even better way to fight both terrorism and terrorists. Says TF:

4. One of the main reasons the Arab-Muslim world has been so resistant to internally driven political reform is because vast oil reserves allow its regimes to become permanently ensconced in power, by just capturing the oil tap, and then using the money to fund vast security and intelligence networks that quash any popular movement. Look at Iran.

Hence, post-9/11 I advocated that our politicians find sufficient courage to hike gasoline taxes and seriously commit ourselves to developing alternatives to oil. Economists agree that this would ultimately bring down the global price, and slowly deprive these regimes of the sole funding source that allows them to maintain their authoritarian societies. People do not change when we tell them they should; they change when their context tells them they must.

Source: The New York Times

At this point it should be very instructive to compare the state of the US debate on gas taxes (this debate is almost non-existent now) with the reform of fuel subsidies championed by Ahmadinejad in Iran. The absence of a massive state tax on imported oil or gasoline in the US constitutes an implicit carbon subsidy for reasons I explained here. Defunding the Arab world through gas taxes in terms of impact would surpass any success in nation building in Iraq by orders of magnitude. However, gas tax seems to be impossible in the US right now, while the proposed cap and trade scheme is already so diluted and degraded under the populist pretext of shielding consumers from the costs of transition to low carbon economy that it should be considered a failure even before it comes into being.

On the other hand, Ahmadinejad's plan seems to have ran into troubles, but at least as originally envisioned the reform is obviously a very determined and well designed attempt to eliminate Iran's explicit carbon subsidy by means of restructuring taxation and allocation of funds. Besides making a lot of economic sense, the reform will have a dramatic impact on the future of the US Iran confrontation. For reasons I explained at the bottom of this post, if properly implemented, the reform may quickly render threats of more sanctions against Iran hollow.

So here you have two adversaries locked in a conflict over Iran's nuclear program and clashing in proxy wars all over the Middle East and beyond. For both the issue of phasing out their explicit (Iran) and implicit (USA) carbon subsidies is very much a matter of "to win it or lose it". In this sense, the determination with which Ahmadinejad is pushing through his very difficult and facing a significant opposition reform contrasts sharply with Obama eventually having lost himself between the cap and trade, Iraq and Afghanistan. Now make your own conclusions.

El Farouki - Futon

Doing Business in the Middle East: Tel Aviv vs Cairo

2009-11-29T01:01:00.004+02:00

Two anti-worlds from the Economist's "Doing business in" Guide...

Tel Aviv

Cairo

2009-11-27T18:31:00.012+02:00

Reagan at Brandenburg Gate. June 12, 1987

The Wall
Fouad Ajami is wondering whether the peoples of Islam will "tear down their walls as the people of Central and Eastern Europe tore down theirs".

NOVEMBER 9, 2009, 7:32 P.M. ET

. . .

. . .

Once again, there arises the question in our midst of whether political freedom, broadly conceived, can and ought to be taken to distant lands. In the George W. Bush years, American power and diplomacy gave voice to a belief in freedom's possibilities. A different sentiment animates American practice today.

For the peoples of Islam, the question can be squarely put: Will they tear down their walls in the manner in which the people of Central and Eastern Europe tore down theirs? The people of Islam are thus sorely tested. They will have to show their own fidelity to liberty. Strangers with big guns and ample means can ride into their midst with the best of intentions and skills, but it is their own world, their own civilization, that is now in history's scales.

Source: Wall Street Journal

My own take on the Arab Wall can be found in a discussion here. Together with this post and the comments section of another one, it should be a pretty accurate account of my current views on diversity and immigration, the link between democracy and development, successful binational states and other, I would call them, Ivory Tower fabrications.

Probably the most important passage in Ajami's very excellent article is this:

It wasn't always pretty, the emancipation of these captive nations. Communism always carried within its doctrine the stern warning that national chauvinisms would spring to the fore were its "internationalism" to give way. Yugoslavia bore out that message. What rose from its graveyard were pitiless nationalisms whose crimes are indelibly etched in our memories. Tito had indeed held together an impossible country. Nor were matters pretty in Romania, no velvet revolution in the twisted, dark tyranny of the Ceaucescus. The march to ballots and free markets was not always an attractive, or a straightforward, tale.

We should have it very clear (and Ajami would do well to reread his masterpiece): throughout the Middle East the Arab Wall is holding together impossible countries.

The Moslem Population in Israel

2009-11-27T08:58:00.011+02:00

This post is an update to The True Convergence

Thanks Lirun for calling my attention to this article in Haaretz. It's based on a report released by the Central Bureau of Statistics. The Hebrew version of the report is here. For some reason the English version does not load itself. Some inaccuracies in the article. The article says:

According to the bureau's report, the Muslim community's growth rate dropped one percent in 2009 to 2.8 percent, down from 3.8 percent in 2008. However, the Muslim growth rate is still the highest among all groups in Israel, with the Druze population growing at 1.8 percent a year, Christian-Arabs at 1.3 percent and Jews at 1.6 percent a year.

The report is actually comparing 2008 and 2000.

Another one:

There are more than 225,000 Muslim families in the country, while in the south each family has an average of 6.9 children, and in the north 3.9 children per family.

This figure is also the highest in the country, while Jews have an average ~~of Jews average~~ 2.9 children per woman, Druse 2.5, Christians 2.1.

The report is actually comparing TFRs (total fertility rates) which can be roughly defined as a number of children young women entering childbearing age would have on average if the current fertility patterns remain unchanged. It's a bit fictional indicator that can have little resemblance to the average family size. It's used widely because, unlike crude birth rates and average family size, TFR is not influenced by population age structure and past demographic trends and so reflects the current state of fertility better than other demographic data. Never mind that the report does not say that Muslim families in the north have 3.9 children per family, but that the TFR for Muslim women in the area is now estimated at 3.0, the lowest Muslim TFR in Israel.

According to the CBS report, the Muslim TFR dropped from 4.7 to 3.8 between 2000 and 2008 compared to the Jewish TFR of 2.9 in 2008 (the Jewish TFR was actually edging up between 2000 and 2008), 2.5 for Druze and 2.1 for Christians. For some reason Haaretz omitted this piece of information which is probably the most important of them all.

If Mohammad does not go to Vietnam...

2009-11-26T13:00:00.016+02:00

Last updated: November 26, 2009

November 5, 2009

This is a kind of "If Mohammad does not go to Vietnam, then Vietnam will come to Mohammad". The Saudis came under attack by Zaidi rebels from across the border. The Saudis reportedly evacuated several border towns and moved army units and special forces into northern Yemen.

November 26, 2009

Stratfor on the war In Saada:

. . . Iran is engaged in an escalating proxy battle with Saudi Arabia in the Saudi-Yemeni borderland, where Iran has been arming a Shiite Houthi rebellion to threaten Saudi Arabia’s underbelly. Iran appears to be using the naval assets to protect its supply lines to the Houthi rebels.

Though there is no shortage of weapons in Yemen, Iran has ensured that the Houthis remain well-stocked. STRATFOR sources have reported that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are training Houthis on how to produce improvised explosive devices for use in their insurgent campaign against Saudi and Yemeni forces.

According to STRATFOR sources, the traditional supply route Iran uses to arm the Houthis starts at Asab Harbor on the Eritrean coast. IRGC officers buy and transport weapons in Somalia and Eritrea, and then load them onto ships at the harbor. The ships then cross the Red Sea northward to Salif on the Yemeni coast. From Salif, the supplies pass through Hajjah and Huth in northern Yemen before reaching Saada, where the Houthi rebels are concentrated.

This route, however, has become more problematic for the Iranians ever since Saudi naval forces deployed three warships along the Red Sea coast of northern Yemen on Nov. 12 to interdict the arms, though STRATFOR is still examining Saudi interdiction tactics and the quality of the intelligence used to identify arms shipments. This traditional route is still being used to transport light arms, but given the Saudi deployment, Iran has shifted to a longer route that also begins at Asab Harbor, but then snakes around the heel of the Arabian Peninsula in the Gulf of Aden before reaching Shaqra on the southern Yemeni coast. From Shaqra, the supplies go to Marib in central Yemen, on to Baraqish and finally reach the Saada Mountains. Throughout the supply chain, bribes are paid to various tribes to facilitate the arms shipments.

The IRGC also has been involved in ferrying Hezbollah fighters to Yemen to support the Houthi insurgency. A STRATFOR source claims that around 60 of Hezbollah’s fighters have died in the conflict thus far. Their corpses were sent by boat to Asab Harbor in Eritrea, from which the IRGC flies them to Damascus. From the Syrian capital, the bodies are transported by land to the fighters’ home villages for burial.

. . .

And this is a nice example of Iran's media glorifying military achievements of the al-Houthi insurgents.

2009-11-21T13:09:00.009+02:00

Iran's population growth according to the World Bank

PS

This graph is an update to Flashdance RELOADED (Original Mix)

Dispelling Illusions

2009-11-12T01:06:00.003+02:00

Last updated: November 12, 2009

November 9, 2009

My response to David 2000 on BloggersBase...

david

You are trying again to think for other people. This is a mistake. You may think that this is what the West should think. I can think that the West should think something else. But the views prevalent in the West and in particular in Europe are very different and not favorable to us.

The last war in Gaza was a tremendous PR disaster. What's left of our PR was destroyed by Lieberman and the Bibi vs Obama settlements row. The perception in the West is that it's us who are intransigent and slapped Obama in the face and not the Palestinians. The perception in the West is that we got a coalition government packed with religious hardliners and right wingers. We got a foreign minister who is virtually a persona non grata just about everywhere. Even when it comes to the US, Bibi prefers to go there in person or send Barak but to keep Lieberman at home.

The majority of Westerners, in particular in Europe, are not interested to go into details about the settlements natural growth or to hear that some parts of the West Bank will be part of Israel anyway. What they got from Bibi's quarreling with Obama over the settlements is that we are bent on settling the West Bank. The only plausible in the eyes of the Western public explanation of why we are in the West Bank is that this was imposed on us by the Arab hostility. Now we have undermined this argument by our own hands by defying Obama on the settlements growth. Once again, you may think that the Western public should be more sensitive to the nuances of our situation, and I may even agree with you, but the Western public will never be ready to go that far to understand our predicament here. Never mind, and lets be honest about it, we have more than enough people in the current coalition who think that we are in the West Bank not as a kind of preventive measure like stopping suicide bombers but because we are indeed intending to settle it.

Meanwhile the Palestinians are about to make a brilliant move by abandoning support for the two state solution and insisting instead on a binational state. This is the ultimate PR killer. There is nothing the Western public except fundamentalist Christians would love more than this. If the Palestinians are smart enough to formulate their position correctly, they will say that there is already a binational state and it cannot be split into two. The only thing that's missing is to abolish this apartheid and grant everybody equal rights.

And if this happens, then it's just a matter of time before the international consensus will be like: You seem to love this West Bank so much that you can't even stop settling it. No problem. Just be sure to provide citizenship to all counterparties involved and you can keep this piece of wasteland to yourselves. At this point even Bibi's oratory skills may fail to stop sanctions from being put in place. And that's the situation. Deal with it!

As to Jordan, nobody is going to order the king to commit suicide in the West Bank. How do you imagine this happening? That the US tells him: Go get your Vietnam in the West Bank or we'll punish you with sanctions?

November 12, 2009

Lessons from South Africa
Another post from BoggersBase. Highly recommended

. . .

Today, Israel (like White South Africa in the 80s) appears to be living under the illusion that she has all the time in the world. The illusion that with her economy, the IDF, support from the US and Diaspora communities, she has no need to set her borders, find- rather than just seek – peace, and come to an accommodation with the other inhabitants of Palestine. There are far too many dangerous illusions at work here. The illusion of brave little Israel, alone against the world. The illusion that we don’t need peace; that we can survive in a state of low-intensity conflict forever. The illusion that we only need one ally, and that we are free to thumb our noses at her views when they don’t suit us. The illusion that the only outpost of democracy in the region would never be abandoned. The illusion that we can’t be replaced as America’s most dependable ally in the region. The illusion that we contribute too much to the world to be cast aside. The illusion that we are right and the rest of the world is wrong. The illusion that we are protected by the lessons and guilt of the Holocaust. And, perhaps most dangerous of all, the illusion that the God of Israel would not allow her be destroyed again.

. . .

Source: Last days of Apartheid South Africa – Lessons for Israel

PS

I decided to rename this post into Dispelling Illusions.

The Quote of the Year

2009-11-11T02:02:00.002+02:00

Last updated: November 11, 2009

July 30, 2009

There are many other instances where Prophet said something and in today's world it turns out to be scientifically correct. For example Quran says that Allah (swt) turned some Jews into monkeys and pigs. Some companion asked the Prophet that the monkeys and pigs that we see today, are they the descendants of those Jews-turned-pigs-and-monkeys? The Prophet pbuh said no and also explained that monkeys and pigs were present way before those Jews were turned into pigs and monkeys as a punishment. This turns out to be scientifically and historically correct.

Source: Prophet of Islam: A Camel Urine Drinker?

:D :D

ROFLMAO

:D :D

November 11, 2009

"It is not possible for those who belong to the Muslim faith to carry out genocide," Erdogan [Turkish prime minister] told ruling party members.

Source: Haaretz

I am wondering if in Yerevan they heard about the latest Erdogan's pearl...

:D :D

What's dead is DEAD

2009-11-08T00:10:00.019+02:00

The opposition in Iran was demonstrating again during the celebrations of the 1979 US embassy takeover with veteran hostage-takers often leading the protests. This fact can hardly surprise people who lived through the collapse of the former Soviet Union (such as the author of this blog) as opposition movements in Moscow and other big Russian cities were densely packed with people who while opposing the system would often remain loyal to communist ideals (It was different outside Russia where opposition was usually dominated by anti Russian nationalists).

In general, several misconceptions seem to be widespread among the Western public regarding the identity of the opposition. Even among the young generation many dissenters combine deep frustration and disillusionment with the current system, with a virulent hostility and mistrust towards the West. Another thing is that many in the opposition movement don't necessarily reject the idea of Islamic republic as such. Rather they tend to stress the democratic aspects of this concept.

When it comes to guessing what may happen in a not very probable case that the opposition gets the upper hand in the near future, it's important to keep in mind that what many in the opposition want is rather similar to "socialism with a human face" with which much of the anti Soviet opposition in Russia wanted to replace the Communist system. In the Soviet case this meant avoiding capitalism and preserving the so called social achievements of Communism such as free health care, education, equality and such stuff while injecting a massive doze of democracy and basic freedoms into the system. In the Iranian case the idea is about a more open and representative system that still somehow remains Islamic and does not become just another Western like parliamentarian democracy.

History, however, has its own ways of making itself and is a big fan of paradoxes and contradictions. Shortly after the failed anti Gorbachiov coup, amidst growing lawlessness and economic collapse, the Russian government had to remove price and other controls and leave the economy to disintegrate into a free market. With the best of its intentions, the Iranian opposition is very likely to end in the same way by collapsing the system which it only wants to restore to its original purpose by means of reforms.

One of the more curious findings that emerged from some polls carried out on the eave of the elections is that while majority of Iranians don't oppose the idea of having Supreme Leader in principle, they would like to have him directly elected and not nominated by the Guardian Council. This says a lot about what a huge part of this opposition should be about. There are several reasons, however, why the opposition is very likely to find its ambitions frustrated and surprisingly one of them may be the lack of cooperation on the part of the clergy. This one touches on another misconception widespread in the West, which is that Iran is a theocratic state. Iran may be a theocratic state, but through the 30 years of its existence it managed to imprison more Shia clerics than the secularly oriented Shah who preceded it. If anything, Iran is a theocratic state usurped by a fraction of the clergy and, as far as Ahmadinejad and his Revolutionary Guard comrades go, they are no great clerics at all. Even the Supreme Leader himself is claimed to be widely despised in Qom for his lack of impressive scholarly credentials.

Basically, the Islamic nature of the republic is supposed to be guaranteed through supervision and direct intervention by the clerics, led by the Supreme Leader under the concept known as Velayat e Faqih elaborated and applied by Khomeini. The only problem with this idea is that it seems to have become unpopular even among the leading Ayatollahs of the Shia world. Even the spiritual leader of Hezbollah, Mohammad Fadlallah, does not endorse it and in Iraq it's squarely out of question. In Iran itself large chunks of clergy appear to have reverted to political quietism eschewing politics. Besides a bunch of hard liners, Iran's Grand Ayatollahs were either silent during the latest mess or openly disproved of the state's treatment of protesters. In fact, in some quarters of the high Shia clergy political apathy and indifference appear now giving place to intense hostility towards the regime.

In case the opposition wins, it may try to relegate the Supreme Leader to the background by stripping his office of much of its current authority and making him elected through popular elections. But on one hand, there is little sense in keeping the Supreme Leader in office if for all practical purposes he becomes like Israeli presidents and wields only ceremonial power. Let alone that the Guardian Council and the office of the Supreme Leader have been thoroughly discredited by the actions of Khamenei and its members. On the other hand, it's very likely that the only clerics interested in taking such an offer would be from the conservative hardcore still rallying behind Khamenei widely detested and hated among the opposition's rank and file.

The last scenario is actually a very likely one. The prestige and authority of Iran's regime was left in shambles after the elections debacle and it's a safe bet that they were lost to the Iraqi branch. In Iraq the Grand Ayatollahs, including the most prominent of them all al-Sistani, have made it known right from the beginning that they prefer spiritual guidance from outside instead of direct involvement the style of Velayat e Faqih. Iraq's next elections may be won by coalitions of secular parties and al-Sistani does not appear troubled by this prospect in any way. In case the Iranian regime disintegrates, prominent clerics untainted by support for the crackdown on the opposition are very likely to reveal themselves as followers of al-Sistani and his Iraqi branch and refuse even ceremonial posts. Some may happen uninterested even in projecting spiritual and moral guidance from outside so deep is the disillusionment with political Islam created by Khomeinism among the Shia clergy.

In short, the opposition does not seem to be in possession of means to preserve the Islamic nature of the Republic and its "Islamic republic with a human face" is very likely to end up as just another republic. Meanwhile the scandal surrounding the elections has been increasingly transformed into one about the crackdown on the opposition. The decision to throw the Baseej into the mess has triggered cascading series of abuse, torture and allegations of other atrocities with the whole thing snowballing out of the regime's control. Until now the regime was wavering and unable to deliver a crushing blow to silence the dissent which is understandable given that Iran in 2009 is very different from Iran in 1979. One of the things that seem to be gone is the ability to execute people en mass. But this wavering and indecisiveness have actually exacerbated the crisis and turned into a never ending scandal deeply embarrassing and demoralizing for the regime.

This last point is an important one since contrary to another popular misconception Iran is no al-Kaida turned a state, but a revolutionary regime rather like the same old Soviet Union. Its ultimate purpose and raison d'être is to provide inspiration to masses across the Muslim World and keep exporting its revolution. Contrary to what many Israelis seem to think, Ahmadinejad's bravado aside, this is no suicidal self destructive entity eager to find itself annihilated or badly crippled in an exchange of nuclear strikes with Israel or the USA. From its very beginning the Revolution's goal was to create a utopian society which Khomeini envisioned as a kind of hybrid between Russian Communism and his rather unorthodox interpretation of the Shia Islam. Creating this new revolutionary society and exporting it to all corners of the Muslim World is what the ideology of this regime is about. It's not about self annihilation. But these days scenes of hundreds of thousands strong demonstrations crushed through application of brutal force are unpopular even in the Muslim world. With Iran's standing even in the Shia world hitting the floor in the wake of the post election turmoil and now digging even deeper into the ground, this revolutionary project seems to have suffered an irreversible setback.

As a matter of last resort, the Revolutionary Guard may try to stage a coup and such a possibility was indeed speculated about, by Stratfor by example. In fact, one Stratfor analyst was interpreting the post election mess as a struggle between the Islamic Revolution's old guard such as Rafsanjani and others and the new and more radical generation led by Ahmadinejad and his Guard colleagues. While this is not entirely untrue, it's missing one of the most outstanding features of this revolution. Revolutions are said to devour their children, but this revolution is so young that it's apparently attempting to devour both its children and its fathers. The opposition is actually driven by a peculiar alliance of the revolution's old guard and the young generation united against Ahmadinejad and his middle generation. But regardless of who wins in the short and medium run, the Revolution and its Republic are probably dead already. Neither the hardliners can resuscitate this revolution, nor the reformists can reform this Islamic republic. What's dead is dead.

Blasted OPEN

2009-11-04T05:05:00.003+02:00

Some people claim the energy crisis is OVER. In fact, they say that not only it's over, the crisis is not going to happen for at least a few next decades. We are going to be awash in natural gas and natural gas powered electricity. So we are also going to be awash in electric cars and cars running on gas. And of course the first thing that emerges in my mind when I hear such exciting news is: So what's about the Arabs? (And the Persians too)

Relearning the Middle East - Nobody fears death. People fear torture

2009-10-30T19:07:00.003+02:00

NPR's (National Public Radio) Terry Gross in conversation with Greg Jaffe (Washington Post's Pentagon correspondent) about Obama's options in Afghanistan. At some point the interview delves into the background of leading US military officials involved and reveals a few interesting episodes from the process through which the US general John Abizaid was relearning the land of his ancestors.

GROSS: I was really interested in your descriptions of General Abizaid, who, you know, helped lead the war in Iraq in its first stage, but didn't seem to agree with the philosophy that the Army was using.

Abizaid's great-grandfather was Lebanese. Abizaid speaks fluent Arabic. He spent time in the Middle East before the war in Iraq, and it sounds like he was very skeptical of the Iraq War from the start, yet he helped lead it. He was the commander of all military forces in the region, the position that Petraeus later took over. So would you explain why he was skeptical of the invasion from the start?

Mr. JAFFE: Yeah, I mean, he does spend a lot of time in the Middle East. Now, he doesn't grow up speaking Arabic. He actually teaches himself Arabic or goes to the Defense Language Institute and then spends two years in Jordan at the University of Amman as a student. They he spends one year in Lebanon, in southern Lebanon in the mid-'80s, watching the Israelis fight a very tough insurgency with Shiite extremists, and particularly Hezbollah, which is just beginning to emerge at that period.

I think he has a sort of deep appreciation for the culture, religion and the huge role those play in the Middle East in terms of determining the fate of kind of countries and how wars unfold. So I think he was deeply skeptical. I mean, he likes to say you can't control the Middle East. If you try, it'll end up controlling you.

So I think he was deeply skeptical of these sort of grand ambitions to change places, particularly Iraq, where he also has this experience at the end of the Gulf War, an experience that's very different from the rest of the United States Army and leads him to take very different lessons from the Gulf War than most of the U.S. Army.

GROSS: So how did Abizaid's Gulf War experience shape his thinking on Iraq?

Mr. JAFFE: Well, you know, most of the Army's - for the Gulf War is the 100-hour tank battle, you know, which is this tank-on-tank fight in which the U.S. Army, you know, obliterates the Iraqi army. Abizaid has a different experience. He misses the tank battle. He's stuck in Italy, much to his chagrin and disappointment for that, but is sent in in the latter days of the war -essentially after the war - to northern Iraq on a mission to protect the Kurds.

It quickly turns to he's also protecting the Iraqi army and the Iraqi army soldiers from the Kurds, and Iraqi soldiers are running to his checkpoint. And he has this - tells this very interesting story. In the latter days of his mission there, he's walking with a Kurdish Peshmerga, a Kurdish militia fighter, and they - the Kurds have caught a couple of Iraqi soldiers who were stragglers, and they grabbed these Iraqis and they torture them and then kill them. And Abizaid, in his very typical, John Abizaid way, says hey, if you're going to kill them, anyway, why do you bother to torture them? And the Peshmerga, the militia, Kurdish militia fighter, says well, nobody fears death. People fear torture. And we have to kill them and torture them and leave them in the middle of the road as an example to the other Iraqi soldiers not to mess with us anymore.

And at that point, I think Abizaid, who already sensed this, realizes that the Iraq War might be over for the U.S. Army. It might be over for the United States of America, but it's still continuing for the Iraqi people and continues throughout the '90s, until we invade the country again in 2003.

Source: NPR

Bring in Haifa Wehbe

2009-10-21T15:33:00.002+02:00

Last updated: October 21, 2009

August 4, 2009

A Saudi Doctor about plastic surgery taking over the kingdom, and actually the rest of the Arab world, by storm.

Ayman al-Sheikh, a Saudi doctor who spent almost 14 years in the U.S., most of them at Harvard, said demand in Saudi Arabia is in line with increased global demand. But what he sees more of in the Arab world, including Saudi Arabia, is a customers for procedures that enhance the face to the point where it no longer looks natural.

Source: The New York Times

Well, I don't know about Saudi Arabia, but by the name of Allah I swear that if human development indexes were to reflect the amount of silicon Haifa Wehbe and her doubles have managed to pack into their chests, Lebanon would have been immediately propelled into the ranks of the first world.

August 12, 2009

Haifa Wehbe and the destruction of Islamic Renaissance in the Middle East

I was bored and so I went to Maysaloon to have a talk with Wassim. Enjoy

:D :D

October 21, 2009

The Haifa Effect
Haifa Wehbe's revolution continues sweeping the Arab world. No wonder the first to take a direct hit is one of the Gulf's most liberal and progressive states.

KUWAIT CITY – Kuwait's highest court granted women the right to obtain a passport without their husband's approval, the case's lawyer said Wednesday, in the latest stride for women's rights in this small oil-rich emirate.

Unlike with highly conservative neighbors like Saudi Arabia, women in Kuwait can vote, serve in parliament and drive — and now can obtain their own passports.

Source: AP

Now what's left is for the Supreme Court to grant women the right to walk, so that they can go to collect their travel passports and then fly their ass out of the kingdom.

Obama's pastors

2009-10-19T17:44:00.006+02:00

There is one thing that Barack Obama seems incapable of ever getting right. According to Times, Obama's new pastor, Carey Cash, is Islamophobe and intense supporter of the war in Iraq. In his book published in 2004, the pastor called Islam a violent faith that "from its very birth has used the edge of the sword as a means to convert or conquer those with different religious convictions". Another pearl from the book is the pastor's belief that a wall of angels protected US troops that stormed Baghdad in 2003 (Cash was a chaplain in one of the first units to reach the city). This is of course highly ironic given that Obama was elected in part riding the wave of popular discontent with the war in Iraq.

Obama's previous pastor, Jeremiah Wright, has deeply embarrassed the president by his his bizarre anti semitic allegations. At one point Wright alleged that Jews were preventing the two from meeting each other. Obama had to disavow Wright and since then went paranoiac about choosing a new pastor, so much so that he started switching churches to avoid getting accidentally associated with another nutty pastor. When he finally dared to praise Cash and express admiration for his powerful sermons, this was quickly revealed as a mistake of colossal proportions. Times says the pastor and his family have refused to be interviewed by the Washington Post on the grounds that they were instructed by the White House to keep their mouth shut and not to talk to the newspaper.

Obama certainly could do better. For example he could easily compensate for his lack of touch for pastors by asking one of his aides to at least browse through the book before telling reporters how excellent Mr Cash is. Now this episode, if given publicity, may sweep the Arab and global Muslim media and annihilate whatever successes on the PR front Barack Obama has achieved with his Cairo and other appearances. As Obama is about to soon embark on a search for a new pastor, based on the president's previous selections and his obvious talent for doing it, I would bet that Obama's next pastor will be promptly revealed as a white supremacist.

He is Alive!

2009-10-18T09:35:00.030+02:00

Last updated: October 18, 2009

At last! The Persians have blasted persistent rumours that Supreme Leader died by releasing pictures of him meeting Senegalese president. My feeling of tremendous relief did not last for long, however, as soon it became apparent that we've got more reasons to worry about. On a photo published by ISNA (Iranian Students News Agency) Khamenei still looks shit and struggling to hold his head up, but Abdullah Wade of Senegal looks simply as if he died half way through the meeting or something.

Source: ISNA
"The Senegalese President also expressed his satisfaction with Iran's impressive June 12 presidential election and its results," said ISNA, but it appears that on saying this Abdullah Wade has largely exhausted his energies and went zombie. Even Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose youthful overconfident appearances usually mitigate the impression of doom and gloom emanating from Iran's clerical gerontocracy, looks subdued and cowering in his corner. I am wondering if this may have something to do with "Iran's impressive June 12 presidential election and its results".

The good old days of yore - Khamenei, Ahmalala and Belarus president Lukashenko

PS

Breaking News... A suicide bomber killed 20 people, including five senior Revolutionary Guard commanders in Sistan-Baluchistan Province of Iran. Scores of others are reported wounded. Among the dead a deputy commander of the Guard's ground force and the Guard's chief provincial commander.

As one who went through one suicide attack and had to visit a friend in a hospital after another one (not to mention that the line I used to go to work was bombed twice), I feel really proud about my contribution to development of this impressive military technology. (Come on, guys. You have to give it to me. No weaponry can mature until tested on live targets and somebody has to do it). Congratulations and my unconditional support go to Baloch nationalists and all other peace loving minorities of the Middle East.

2007, Sistan-Baluchistan. Iran executes a Baluchi insurgent
after a previous attack on the Revolutionary Guard

October 18, 2009

Iran's president Ahmadinejad promised a swift retaliation for the attack in Balochistan, lightening up the hearts of Baluchi insurgents and certain malicious outsiders. There are millions of Baluchis scattered around the region between Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan and Jundallah, the flagship of Baluchi resistance, is rumored to have ties with Al-Kaida. What a fertile ground for a mega Sunni Shia confrontation!!!

However, there seems to be some nuances.

Iranian officials have been reluctant to open full-scale military operations in the southeastern border zone, fearing it could become a hotspot for sectarian violence with the potential to draw in al-Qaida and Sunni militants from nearby Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Source: AP

A big disappointment it is.

Shattered dreams and broken hopes. Angry and dismayed, Baloch insurgents wasting time in their camp - no sign of the Persians coming

Trust me, guys. I can feel your pain. Inshallah, lets pray for better days to come.

What a concept!

2009-10-17T22:46:00.003+02:00

People sometimes post comments that in two lines nail it down better than any social scientists can do. This one, for example, was posted on The Reality Moment in the New York Times. This is basically what America and actually most other democracies are about.

Blacklight: Gee, responsible, pragmatic political leaders who put their careers on the line to tell you the things that you, the electorate, don't want to hear. And the electorate responds. What a concept!

Simply brilliant!

Obama should stay course on Iraq

2009-10-17T13:01:00.004+02:00

The Sunni insurgents in Iraq blew up a key bridge used by the US to withdraw its forces from the country.

BAGHDAD – A suicide bomber blew up a dynamite-laden truck in western Iraq on Saturday, destroying a key bridge on a highway used by the departing U.S. military, while four Iraqi soldiers were killed in a separate attack near Fallujah, police said.

There were no casualties in the Saturday morning blast that destroyed the bridge, said a police officer in the city of Ramadi, about 70 miles (125 kilometers) west of Baghdad. The highway is used heavily by the U.S. military to transport equipment out of the country.

Source: Associated Press

The attack came in the wake of a surprising decision by the Nobel committee to award Barack Obama with the 2009 Nobel peace prize. Smart observers will find here signs of a broad international consensus that the decision to end the occupation was premature.

Mr. Obama, people of the world are looking to you to hold steadfast in Iraq. If you need more encouragement, just say it. What do you want us to do? Do you want us to give you another prize or do you want us to blow up another bridge?

Russia celebrating Independence

2009-10-14T09:44:00.010+02:00

Source: Telegraph
A mysterious cloud was spotted over Moscow as Muscovites are readying themselves for celebrations of Russia's independence day. I don't want to be a spoiler but I do feel like I have to remind to our readers how such shit usually ends...

And here we go...

2009-10-12T17:46:00.007+02:00

This post is an update to Flashdance. You will probably have to read the original post to understand what this one is about.

Iran's parliament gives green light to Ahmadinejad's fuel subsidies reform...

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran's parliament on Monday moved ahead with a bill to sharply slash energy and food subsidies, approving one article of a draft law that has the potential of stoking major unrest in a country struggling under international sanctions.

State radio said the article approved by lawmakers would gradually cut energy subsidies over five years, bringing the heavily discounted fuel prices more in line with international prices.

Officials say the cuts are needed to recoup some of the roughly $90 billion spent yearly by OPEC's second largest exporter on subsidies, and to target the funds more directly at helping poorer segments of the population as well as funding infrastructure projects.

Subsidies currently eat up about 30 percent of the government budget at a time when already high spending and the collapse of oil prices last year squeezed the country's economy.

"The plan would prevent an important part of excessive consumption (in Iranian society), as well as injustice in the redistribution of subsidies," state-run Press TV quoted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as saying in a live interview on Iranian television Sunday night.

Source: Associated Press

Among its possible consequences, the approved bill has direct bearing on the issue of punitive sanctions against Iran. It's unlikely that the US and its allies can take action to disrupt Iran's oil exports due to the adverse effect this would have on the global energy market and through this on their respective economies. Imposing some kind of embargo on gasoline imports into Iran sounds like a more plausible course of action to take. Under Ahmadinejad the Persians were investing like mad into their refining capacity and switching cars to natural gas. This effort should start paying off in the next few years, dramatically reducing the impact of possible sanctions against Iran. In fact, Iran may yet emerge as one of the leading, if not the leading, gasoline exporters of the world. The incoming reform may dramatically speed up this process if it succeeds to reign in domestic gasoline consumption. In short, while the President of presidents is brooding over his options in Iran, he may soon find that one about sanctions suddenly unavailable.

PS

This means nothing in terms of Israel's options. If it comes to trading ballistic missiles with Iran, the correct way for Israel to proceed in order to avoid creating a global energy crisis and becoming enemy of all mankind, is to target refineries and not oil fields and terminals.

To Win the Nobel

2009-10-10T13:35:00.000+02:00

Last updated: October 12, 2009

December 23, 2006

From a conversation with a Lebanese friend:

Nobody:

one person told me that when i call myself politically incorrect this is a very gentle description (it was Abubalboola actually NB)

Friend:

well I wouldn't recommend you for the nobel peace prize

Nobody:

no ??? because that was my dream for years - to win the nobel peace prize

Friend:

mine too
do you think I stand a chance ?

. . .

. . .

Yet a few days ago another Lebanese wrote me this:

No one ever won a nobel peace prize for not offending anyone. Besides, if Henry Kissinger, Menachem Begin and Yassir Arafat can win one, you'll be just fine.

. . .

. . .

So it's not over yet . . . I still hope to be one day awarded a Nobel for promoting peace, love and understanding between Jews and Arabs.

October 10, 2009

Go Obama! Goooooo!!!
My Nobel ambitions have been frustrated again and this time by a person with the Kenyan background or something. What can be more humiliating?! However, while we are still on this Nobel prize thing, I want to say that I fully support the committee's decision. Obama's achievements in peace making are not particularly impressive, but his intentions are good and, as the Buddhist philosophy is teaching us, from the purely Karmic perspective intentions count more than actual actions. Never mind a huge amount of work that lies ahead. More troops are needed for Afghanistan. More may be needed in Iraq in the near future if something goes wrong. And of course we have Iran's nuclear reactors waiting to be bombed. With so much peace making that needs to be done, Obama certainly needs some kind of encouragement. In short, however offensive personally I find the committee's persistent ignoring of my own peace making initiatives, I support the decision and am ready to wait patiently for my turn. However, all this is only on condition that mr. Obama will do his peace work properly.

Peace... Beace... Shalom...

Inshallah, one day it will be my turn to go to pick up my Nobel.

Matisyahu - One Day

October 12, 2009

Another Nobel gone...
The Nobel oration, I promised to Nizo in the comments section, seems poised to suffer yet another delay...

As bad as they are, nukes have been instrumental in reversing the long, seemingly inexorable trend in modernity toward deadlier and deadlier conflicts. If the Nobel Committee ever wants to honor the force that has done the most over the past 60 years to end industrial-scale war, its members will award a Peace Prize to the bomb.

Source: Time

So first I was elbowed down to the end of the line by Kenyans and now I will have to wait because they will be busy showering peace Nobels on nukes and chemical bombs. It just can't get more ridiculous than this. I want my Nobel back and I want it now!