Jeha's Nail - مسمار جحا

The Pitfalls of Power

2009-06-03T11:57:00.010+03:00

It is often the case that triumphant powers develop tendencies that make them vulnerable to weaker challengers.

As they achieve repeated successes, they soon become to believe that, by constantly reapplying the same formula, they will continuously be able to achieve success by the same means. However, their once-novel methods soon become “conventional” themselves, and a form of “doctrinal complacency” sets, reinforced by the ever increasing success. Such was the case in July 2006, when Israel’s ossified, conventional thinking led to its defeat at the hands of a challenger who espoused novel, unconventional approaches.

This is the case of Hezb’O today; its victory in July 2006 led it to an increasingly dominant position in Lebanon. This “new dominant” shows signs of increased confidence in the value of its past policies, since they led to so many successes. Indeed, after July 2006, their demonstrations and tent city led to the blockage of the country’s normal processes, allowing a continuous land grab and now a power grab.

However, in doing so, Hezb is only exacerbating a “power dilemma”; the success of its offensive policy will create ever stronger incentives to strike first, since a successful attack will usually so weaken the other side that victory will tend to be relatively quick, bloodless, and decisive. This is what happened during their invasion of Beirut in May 2008, when it lead to cowing of Hariri’s, and more crucially, of Jumblat’s Druze.

As it continued in this conquest phase, Hezb has consolidated “internally” by eliminating or sidelining “barons”, and is now expand “externally”. Its “external” expansion is now carried out as part of the elections, in which they are leading Aoun’s electoral offensive in the Christian. Whatever the final result, ShaterHassan’s allies would be sure to score quite a few points.

But Iran’s power grab over Lebanon will be far from secure, and the downside will come soon enough; as the successes accumulate, Hezb’s doctrines will be increasingly informed by the rose-colored lens of previous victories. Repeated victories make this offensive approach an easier choice because of the belief in the possibility of quick victory as well as the belief that failure to act will expose them to unacceptable risk.

This doctrine of action will become increasingly rigid, and the party will become ever less likely to change and adapt. As previous victories are celebrated, a culture of victory is increasingly emphasizing certainty in outcomes. Because this certainty belies the complicated sets of factors that allowed victory in previous engagements, Hezb is increasingly developing a “static conception” of political struggle that does not allow for change on the part of its adversaries. Soon enough, those adversaries will learn to exploit the weaknesses thus exposed, exposing dominants to defeat at the hands of inferior parties.

Regardless of the result of this upcoming election, little will fundamentally change because of both the institutional dysfunctions of Lebanon and the contradictions of regional power equilibriums. But time may choose for all; not only will there be less Iranian cash in the future, but at the present rate of consumption and decline, Iran is facing oil shortages and may even become unable to export much more oil by 2014. true, Saudi Arabia is not doing much better, but they’re not the ones challenging the United States for regional dominance.

However, we’re still a long way from Kansas; if time is the fire in which we all burn, we Lebanese are the ones closest to the flames.

Monsters, Inc.

2009-05-25T08:38:00.010+03:00

Our Lebanese “Our leaders” have much to teach the Great Colbert about government; judging from the uproar they generate, they have improved on the idea that “the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing”. The amount of hissing is irrelevant if the geese are busy hissing at one another.

For this reason, watching the Lebanese elections is discomfiting at first look. Almost everywhere political discussion appears geared “internally”, towards “consolidating” one's core supporters. Voting in that case becomes little more than a census, where real electioneering starts at conception, making sure the braying masses make enough voters, and guaranteeing that the economic system remains on the right side of failure to maintain them in a permanent state of patronage-enhanced servility. The only real debate is within middle class regions of Mount Lebanon, who happen to be mostly Christians. In that, they're leading the rest of the Arab world's elites.

A deeper look, however, reveals a less pessimistic view; those who once claimed Lebanon as the Switzerland of the Middle East forgot that our region has nothing like the German's federative obsession, the French administrative zeal, or the British legal scruples. We can only be as good as one can be in this cesspool of dictatorships, where the only country pretending at being democratic is ruled by one ethnic group at the expense of others. And no, I do not mean Turkey.

No wonder our search for consensus and internal stability is so elusive. At least, we're the only ones really trying, even if our model is far from perfect, or realistic. And so what if Nasrallah has missiles and Iran. Doesn't Lieberman have Tsahal, AIPAC, and a little more? I fail to see the core difference between those fine examples of Shiite tribalism and Jewish tribalism.

For the time being, our only hope is to try and maintain some internal power balance, by voting our heads rather than our hearts, to maintain our local overlords as much on edge as possible. The pie is shrinking, and their old ways of goose-plucking will soon have to change lest they run out of feathers... Or Until they weed themselves out of here.

Or, more probably, Until, that is, we're all emigrated from here. By “we”, I mean the middle class; the exodus of the Christians from Lebanon is only a symptom of the country's real tragedy, the absence of opportunities for the middle class, mostly made up of Christian, Druze, and Beiruti Sunnis. In the current state of affairs, there is little to do for all those who just want to earn a decent living, without the need to pledge allegiance to petro-mullahs or armageddon-evangelists.

But there's still some hope.

Spring Greetings

2009-04-19T09:54:00.010+03:00

One Lebanese asks another; "Did you watch the solar eclipse yesterday". To which the other replied; "Oh, for us, it's going to take place Tomorrow".

Alas, under this grand talk of "diversity", we Lebanese hide real divisions. It would not be so bad if they were limited to arcane matters of religion or taste. In our case, we've moved beyond absurdities of calendar, we've each managed to move to different planets while living in the same country.

... I kinda like the part about numerous vacations, though.

But I digress...

I've had little to blog about over the past few weeks. I see little merit in either side of this sorry saga of ours... In the coming election, there will be no real debate of ideas, just a "conscription" of the electorate, as we're each pulled by the rival tugs of the regional giants; an Iranian-aligned "Shiite" party with money and "فهم", a Saudi-guided "Sunni" grouping with money and no "فهم", and a Christian salad of ex-warlords with no money and even less "فهم".

As for whatever secular "center" remains, we hide our hard earned money, as the looming global recession challenges our limited "فهم" of the world. In any case, whoever wins the current election will be of little real consequence; the real fight's taking place outside this ring. The best we can do is continue our bloody jockeying for position within our little square in the regional chessboard.

....March 14, 2005 is so far away ...

...Still, it's not all bad; we've got a few things going for us...

Release the Hounds!

2009-03-07T15:27:00.003+02:00

Driving around Lebanon has been an increasingly interesting experience of late. In most coastal areas, traffic was a lot worse. This is not just because of an influx of Gulf tourists, but it appears mostly due to an increase in the number of “strategically placed” public works. With the election nearing, the increase in number of government mandated potholes is supposed too help the rival fortunes of the rival Hariri and Hezb’O camps.

In addition, the number of beggars and street salesman in most areas of the capital has skyrocketed. This can only be a direct indication of an influx of Syrian Mokhabarat who came to “cover” our elections, and whose retinue those poor wretches tend to be part of.

Alas, no Kaak yet…

So it’s a good thing Minister Baroud is enforcing those safety belt laws and the cellphone ban.

I feel safer already…

... Well, to be fair, the cellphone ban is nice. The seatbelt laws, however, for "personal choice" reasons only a libertarian could feel compelled to justify. But still, I would hope more could be done. But I digress. Still, thanks to LaLebanessa for taking me to task.

DoubleSpeak

I see those little local developments in the context of the announcement that Britain's Foreign Office announced Thursday that it has contacted Hezbollah's “political wing”(WTF?!)”. At the same time, their American masters are reassuring us that they will still respect us in the morning after that little flirtation while they continue to withhold equipment from our Army. If you can call that “old equipment that the Jordanian kingdom wants to replace” military hardware; I’ve seen newer crap.

Still, we may have a chance if the Golden Horde decides to ride again. Just maybe; they still make ammo for those M24/29, don’t they?

I am not only surprised that there is such a thing as a “political wing” for what is little more than the Lebanese outgrowth of the Pasdaran, I am even more surprised no one yet considered contacting Ben Laden’s political wing? So what if his followers wasted a few limeys; isn’t our rag-head blood just as worthy as theirs? And furthermore, Ossama’s a far more reasonable man than Ahmadinejad and his kin; Khatami’s a mere fig leaf, and rather than an end in itself, America’s favourite troglodyte considers religion as a means to an end…

… But I digress. again.

In the context of all those shenanigans, I fear those will be tough days ahead for Lebanon. Regardless of which March you’re on, “only a sword can cut this Gordian knot” of conflicting alliances and rival interests.

In the short term, I fear the hounds have already been released… And the longer term may even be worse.

The Ugly Short Term

On the short term, our election is set to be a very dirty affair. That the polls are all on the same day creates even more opportunities for the better organized party to play “under the table”, and I would not surprised to see those who claim March 8^th to win the day.

Indeed, the key players in the camp that claims March 14^th, led by amateur-in-chief Saad Hariri, appear set to screw one another. Especially with “leaders” such as Amine Gemayel and Michel Murr, either of whom has yet to fathom a lie they could not utter.

The Uglier Long Term

On the long term, the Americans will re-learn the difference between talk and dialogue, as their little flirtation with Syria fails (again). On the longer term, Hezb’O’s conservative revolution will not prevail.

By then, however, Lebanon may well have collapsed.

Chances are there will be little left of the civil society that motivated the (true) Cedar Revolution. The best and brightest having emigrated away and moved on, Lebanon could well be even more solidly infiltrated by Hezb’O.

Yes, we Lebanese are no saints. But Israelis will hate the alternative… As they complain about their (accidental) terrorists offsprings that will go back to threatening their northern border, there will be little they can do about it, they will be too busy glossing over that dreaded A-word, especially if “Yvette” gets a seat anywhere near the government table.

The Americans will have a harder time as well, and “the One” and his “advisers” will come to regret ignoring the opinion of wiser men;

It is easy to see how Syria gains strategically from a "peace breakthrough" with Israel. It gains in Lebanon; it breaks out of the isolation that the Gulf Arabs (and the United States) had sought to impose on it because of its unholy alliance with Iran. The Israeli strategic analysis is harder to discern. The bottom line is that the Israelis are short-sightedly playing here with American strategic chips, undercutting an American regional strategy toward Iran-which one would have thought they had an interest in.

WTF?

2009-03-03T18:23:00.001+02:00

Check out this excellent article by the Middle of the East, especially the part in which it refers to this piece in The National.

Odd...

Was July 2006 a large scale Coventry?

Lost in Translation

2009-03-01T11:22:00.010+02:00

So the election season is upon us. Each and everyone has started their specifying, and each in his/~~her~~ own way.

So Hariri, having had his Feb. 14^th Groundhog day, is now mouthing of about the sweetness of opposition... And odd way to motivate his partisans, but that's just me. Methinks he has far too much hope in the tribunal, or is he making a few political deals too many?

So Hezb'O'MyGodThereAreZionistsAmongstUs is, well, closing the ranks. Some see this as an the expectation of some tribunal-related questioning, and link it to tourists... Methinks the barbudos doth protest too much...

Either way, it is all part of an early circling of the wagons around each community's sacred cows. So Aoun is now … well.. whatever he's doing, it may work. At least his ministers are doing a good job, especially considering the other incompetents around them.

So the Syrians are moving their pawns around the chessboard, and making "come hither" gestures to the Americans, with those ever perspicacious Europeans in tow.

But most importantly, consider the Americans. They are “engaging” the syrians. Or they are not. Or not yet... Methinks, with all this talk of "balance", they're going after meager returns, thereby showing again that they do not know their head from their ass. This is not a stretch, considering where their best "talent" is...

What does it all mean? Nothing Yet.

Or Nothing New...

Or am I losing something in this "translation" of facts?

Maybe AbuKais is right, after all...

Coincidences

2009-02-20T15:49:00.008+02:00

It is interesting how little news Middle Eastern newspapers really provide us with. As they feed us misinformations in the service of shady policies, one has often to read between the lines. In Lebanon, they more often serve us tired tirades disguised as real analysis. So we have to read “outside” the lines … Here’s a couple of little tidbits that we do not read about;

1- the February 12^th kidnapping of Joseph Sader, the Middle East Airlines (MEA) director of information technology operations. Coincidence: he may have been related to the fact that he processed and prepared files related to the Hariri assassination case.

2- The February 18^th assassination of Ghassan Miqdad, the MEA pilot, found dead in his own car in Beirut’s Ouzai district. Coincidence: he had transported the Hariri files to The Hague on Feb. 9. Coincidence: 2 months ago, his brother, Mohammed, was similarly assassinated, in the same area. Coincidence: 2 weeks before that, his house was burglarized.

And the biggest Coincidence of all; both the Airport and Ouzai district are under the control of Hezb’O. So as they hide their head up their own gluteus maximus;

Lebanon's great and good say it’s all personal.

I say its just business as usual…

Bring on the Salami...

...Paranoid, eh?

Update: No. My source(s) are not Al-Siyassa, which I do not read anyway. And that's all I have to to say about that... For now.

Kahane's own Yvette

2009-02-12T11:50:00.017+02:00

Regardless who prevails to become the next Israeli Prime-Minister, he/she will have a heavy burden to bear. And no, it’s not “Palestinian Terrorism”; it’s Avigdor “Yvette” Lieberman. His rise to kingmaker has two main implications for the region, both of which are far reaching.

In the Immediate...

Whatever his merits(?), the home-made brew that this guy’s spewing is far more toxic than Kahane’s. Yes, the language is milder, but the undertones are the same, and worse, the whole venom is now accepted discourse in Israeli politics.

Such venom has a uniquely corrosive effect; ever since its establishment, Israel claimed some form or moral right. Whatever the merits of the Zionist cause, this gave Israel a boost, especially considering the dismal record of the regimes surrounding it. Today, this may well be all unravelling; by welcoming their own Ahmadi-nut-job within mainstream politics, Israelis are losing whatever moral high ground was left.

Even the stupid Gaza campaign does not carry the same cost. As Lieberman’s stature and influence grows, expect more comparisons to be made with Le Pen or Haider. And expect some unwelcome reactions.

Externally, the rise of such right-wing racists will only feed western anti-Semites. But those nut-jobs hardly need an excuse anyway. The larger danger is Internal. Those being constantly accused of being a fifth column may finally decide to become one, especially as the Settler movement continues to act with impunity. And then Israel will find that a home-grown Intifada is a far harder challenge to face, an inconvenient “fact on the ground” that no “security fence” can hide away.

On the Long run

An additional effect of Lieberman’s rise would be on the regional “peace process”, whatever that still means.

The current Israeli leadership will have to contend and growing dissent among Diaspora Jews, most of whom are not really too far from Hannah Arendt. In addition, the current Obama administration is far less Likudnik than the previous one.

However, that does not mean that the current Obama administration will be much less tone-deaf than the previous one. As a result, the new Israeli government will be pressured to show some progress on the “peace track”. And rather than choosing the Palestinian track, it will buy time and "keep Obama busy" on the simpler "Syrian track", where it finds a far more accommodating partner.

...And so, for Lebanon...

Interesting times, Ahoy!

Update/Modification: It seems I'm not the only one feeling uneasy about Ol'Yvette, as there appears to be a similar mood south of the Mason-Dixon line. The video is therefore more fitting than the one I had previously selected...

Excerpt from Yvette's speech (H/T Lisa Goldman):

Good Morning, Israel, Citizens, second-class citizens, third-class citizens - and Arabs. I declare the founding of a Jewish state called Yisrael Beiteinu.

Applause.

The elections were a marvelous experience and they were also a final experience. There will be no more elections. Mina [a famous pollster], your next poll will be called, ‘What do you think of the leader?’ And the answers will be:

(a) He is excellent;

(b) He is great;

(d) All answers are correct with the addition of coconut oil.

Applause plus whistles.

Regarding the rest of the choices, I decide as follows.

On planes, regarding chicken or beef - beef.

For weddings, garden or indoor event space - indoor event space.

On Galgalatz (army radio), Madonna or Shakira - Madonna.

Regarding leftists: If you voted Hadash, you will receive a new (hadash) passport [the leftwing party’s name is an acronym for the Democratic Party for Peace and Equality, but it also means ‘new’].

Applause.

Now lower the volume of the applause. Raise it again. Now applaud according to a jazz rhythm

...May the farce end here...

אף פעם לא

Diou, Qué Marinade!

2009-01-29T08:11:00.005+02:00

In France, the bananas of the nouveau regime are no smarter than the tired cabbages of the ancient. One of those legumes, Osif sénateur UMP de l'Oise, fired up a little gem:

"President Assad told me he exerted his influence to ensure Hezbollah adopted a responsible attitude and showed restraint during the events in Gaza, Syria's role has been positive " President Nicolas Sarkozy's envoy Senator Philippe Marini told reporters in Beirut. after a visit to Damascus.

Has Le petit Nicola really been convinced that his investment in Bashar was still worth it, he would have sent him a bigger banana. However, the rants of this second fiddle sound just like a stockbroker talking up some junk bond. But that maintains the link just enough, in case the Obama(-Clinton?) administration decides to keep Syria "showered with incentives to tempt it away" from Iran.

Or maybe Le petit Nicola has assurances that Bashar will still respect him in the morning, too. But maybe not the morning after...

Or will hassouna confirms that little tall tale?

...Mais que diantre alloit-il faire dans cette galére!

Tabarnak!

2009-01-25T08:18:00.003+02:00

The news this past couple of weeks has been replete with drunkenness. Faced with the latest demonstration of

Israel

’s illusion of living without its neighbours, our local Saint Jihad Chrisosphobos decided to retaliate…

So, unable to do anything south of Nakoura, he sent his partisans take over Churches.

Turn the other Cheek, eh?

This led some of his Ninjas, Modi Viarge Grises for the occasion, to deliver some esti de sacrament d'agrat, at the Church in Haret Hreik, with the full regalia of Ôstie and and tabarnak achalandé.

And now he has manufactured a Modit Rosaire.

What’s next; an Ostie with Saint-Ciboire de Nasrallo’s effigy on? Well, Khomeiny tried to emulate the Saint Charbel look, but Shater Hassan's pushing too hard. Even with all ClAoun’s support behind him, I am not sure that it would sell in Lebanon. The Lebanese may not have more than mere words to oppose him, but some can have subversive power…

Modit Côlisse…!!

Never before has religion been so enmeshed with politics as in Lebanon. Thanks to Nasrallah and his goons, we may be in the Middle Ages, but fear not; to everything there’s a season…

… La Révolution Tranquille n’est pas loin.

Ibn Khaldoun's Lesson

2009-01-22T10:07:00.001+02:00

The middle is a hard place to be, and a harder place to remain. To some, I sound like a “Zionist Apologist”, to others, like a “Naïve Idealist”. I am neither.

I am a realist.

There is no such a thing as “Military Solutions”; it is a logical fallacy. The Military is a tool, and should be used in the service of a specific policy, itself the implementation of a longer term vision.

The current situation is not new. The process we find ourselves stuck in has been described much earlier by Ibn Khaldun, the great Arab historian. Whenever a community united by ethnicity or common interest (“العصبيٌة”; or “Assabiya”), needs to reach power and maintain its hold on it (“المك”; or “Mulk”), it relies on a religious or political ideology (“الدٌعوة”; or “Daawa”).

So, In countries like Syria and Iraq, clans founded their claim to power on a “Daawa” such as the “Popular Democracy” and “Socialist Equality”, co-opting Arab nationalism of the Baath Party. And today’s Israelis are not much better, having mostly moved far away from early ideals. Across the region, all those nice members of the “Assabiya” have now secured their “Mulk” well in hand, and are focusing on securing power by all means, focusing on narrow self interests.

This was made easy in all our countries.

We have all inherited from colonial times an apparatus that had invested many more resources in military-security apparatus than in civil-legal institutions to maintain control either over restive societies or unaccommodating neighbours. In some countries, the mokhabarat enforce the prevailing orthodoxy. In others, a common ideological groupthink takes care of that.

Care to move on?

Then Challenge your own mindset…

Only there will you find the real “Infrastructure of Terror”.

...Before this BF mess moves north...

Not Even Stupid...

2008-12-29T09:53:00.003+02:00

With apologies to Pauli…

What the Israelis are doing in Gaza is not even stupid. How can they expect “Quiet” when the others see no justice?

What Hamas has been trying to do is not even moronic. How can fanatics expect “freedom” when they cannot even tolerate others' differences?

And, even if Hamas’ real aim extends beyond the borders of Gaza, what the Egyptians are letting them do is not even criminal. How can it expect “prosperity” if it comes at the price of dignity?

Furthermore, even if Hamas’ real reach extends beyond the confines of Gaza, what the barbudos on the Lebanese side are (trying) to do is not even suicidal. Then again, we’ve moved beyond logic a long time ago. But at least we Lebanese are upfront about our own shortcomings.

That said, aside from the sheer criminality of knowingly targeting civilians under the guise that there are terrorists hiding in their midst, the Israeli policy will fail utterly, and further drag down the name of Israel into the mud.

Come to think of it, maybe that’s been done already.

In which case, Israel is turning into just another one of its Arab neighbours… No wonder they get along so well with the Assad regime.

Maybe they can be roommates.

…Strange bedfellows, indeed.

Reading the Pravda

2008-12-20T10:58:00.006+02:00

It’s been a while. But there was so little to discuss; so much “noise”, little real news or actions.

Actions and (lack of) Motion

Yes, there was some speech from former warlords turned peacemakers for those who believe that such a conversion is really possible.

Then there was the odd state visit of the local clAoun for those who really believe in histrionics.

Then there were those Mig’s who will take the place of the Mirage in this big empty warehouse at the Kleyat Air Base… Until we sell them to the Pakistanis or some other wannabe-failed state… Unless we purchase them like we did those infamous Crotale…

… But it is all really irrelevant, as the real story may well be unfolding beyond our (puny) reach, or the even punier grasp of our insignificant political c(r)ass...

In this lack of real news, old newspapers can make interesting read. Not so much for the actual information provided, but for the context. I had chanced upon an old Pravda article, back in the heyday of the Soviet Union, which was talking about awarding the Lenin prize to some miners from some Marx-forsaken place in Bejnev’s frozen realm. It actually made more sense in the context of later historic documents that discussed worker unrest in some areas.

Today, in a comparatively freer world, there are reports that “between 23 and 35 Iraqi Interior Ministry officials have been arrested on suspicion of plotting a military coup to topple Maliki's democratically elected government”.

…Dude!

Are we back in 1979?

Surely Maliki’s no Saddam…

Yet he’s no Mother Theresa either.

Consider the plight of that poor “Zaidi”, the man who called the US president a ‘dog’ and hurled both his shoes at Bush. He has already suffered a broken arm and other severe injuries. Before you can shout “police brutality”, recall that he was apparently resisting arrest, since “after he was dragged away struggling and screaming by Iraqi security officers and US secret service agents".

Now the poor sap finds himself “in hospital in the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad”. Having “admitted to 'aggression against a president'”, he now faces 15-year sentence under Iraqi law. He’s now “apologizing”… And pleading for clemency:

[My] “big ugly act cannot be excused […] I remember in the summer of 2005, I interviewed your Excellency and you told me, 'Come in, this is your house.' And so I appeal to your fatherly feelings to forgive me”

An oddly familiar choice of words, don’t you think? Not to defend that idiot who disrespected Arab hospitality. After all, entire cities were destroyed for a similar crime. Still…

Since when has this law been on the books?

Come to think about it, there's still little to discuss... On reprend les mêmes et on recommence.

Et (re)zou!

Bananey Sananey

2008-11-08T16:06:00.006+02:00

Back during the heat of the election, when Joe “motor mouth” Biden cautioned that “this president would be tested”, he got a lot of flack. He had a point, however, but one the media skipped over; any new president will appear to be undergoing a test when he resumes office.

However, even this is simplistic; most crises are the result of complex events that pre-date the election. Perceptions can simply exacerbate some of them and their effect, as foreign adversaries miscalculate.

In our case, Dr. Bashar may be making a similar analysis as one of his more illustrious predecessors, confusing the cyclical changing of the guards in the United States with the passing of an era. This perception is leading him to start cranking up the pressure on his opponents in Lebanon. After the comparison with Georgia, soon he’ll be painting Lebanon as another version of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. True, Saad is been laden with money (rires). True, he had not been showing much good judgement so far. However, he has far less links to “Jihadists” that the good Doctor Bashar.

If the Syrians are really serious about coming back to Lebanon, they need to start picking on bigger statures than the puny Lebanese politicos. To do so, they need a little more than infomercials or empty rhetoric.

Yes, the American administration has changed. But what has changed is the style, not the substance, and definitely not the core interests.

Yes, the Americans are not above selling us (again). However, if Lebanon is nowhere near the top of the agenda, neither is Syrian. So Bashar needs to really deliver something to the Americans. But he has to take into account that, this time, as a result of Saudi, Egyptian, and Iranian involvement, Lebanon’s price just went up.

And the Americans will want cash, upfront.

Mabrouk

2008-11-05T13:57:00.007+02:00

Ben Franklin, a non-president among the dead presidents we so eagerly trade, was once queried, as he left what would become Independence Hall;

“Well, Doctor, what have we got?”

“A Republic, if you can keep it.”

Today, for the 56^th time, the Americans ran a presidential election. OK, some would say 57^th, since John Hancock had the title first… But the fact is, like clockwork, the Americans vote for a president, and a rather smooth transition takes place. Even if some of the workings of this system smell rather too fishy to qualify as a real democracy, as a Republic, it's not so bad. In any case, it's the closest thing to a democracy the world has.

so, for the 57^th time, congratulations to you.

In the United States, Provided he applies to the white house the same shrewd determination that he used to rise to the top, the United States will fare rather well. However, will he succumb to hubris and believe his own rhetoric, the outlook will not be so rosy. Messiahs and prophets do not always fare well, and quite a few are already shopping around for a cross and nails.

And, for (n+m)^th time, do not sell us out...

In the rest of the world, the outlook depends on their current alliance or opposition to the power of the American Imperium. They all expect either a saviour or a douche, but they will all get a shrewd president, intent on increasing his power and therefore that of his country.

So, as reality sets in, expect most election promises to be broken, and if the style changes, do not expect the actions to be dramatically altered. For too many, it will take time for reality to sink in;

They voted for a messiah, and got a mere 44th president.

The show goes on.

Nigeiran Scams

2008-10-19T19:10:00.005+03:00

One can make a lengthy argument as to the impact of the “change” in the direction of the

United States

policy, should O’bama ever be elected… Personally, I have no illusion of any changes; whether your choice is “the One” who rose to the top too fast to be kosher, or the other one who’s rise is too slow to be a genuine "maverick". I will save you the need to read an lengthy explanation; watch the videos instead.

Those were not opponents laughing at one another.

Those were comrades in arms laughing together at the world's expense. So, when it comes time for Rome to anoint its Cesar, little change is depth can be expected; the new emperor's job would be to clean up the financial mess first and foremost; whatever plans they will implement have already been written by President Paulson.

So it is no wonder that, between Ayers and Keating, I prefer the devil I know, with little justification beyond my own gut feelings… Either way, however, I do expect any real change to affect United States policy in the Middle East. Myself and others have blogged ad nauseum and clearly showed how the Iranians and Syrians will accomplish little as long as they are aligned against the core interests of the United States.

Those who still disagree are too far gone to be convinced. After all, they still expect that, on the morning after the election, either candidate will still respect them ...

Salami Tactics

2008-10-08T14:37:00.006+03:00

The Syrians are nothing if not persistent.

Rather than learning from the strategic mistakes that led to their ignominious defeats in April ’05, they are following the same tried and true tactics that led to our ignominious surrender in ‘76.

Simple, “slice by slice”, salami tactics.

First, they activate some local supporters. Nothing wrong with that, we share so much that it is hard to refute that, just like Belgium and France, we’re much the same people in two countries. Much like Belgium and France, however, I’d rather we keep it that way.

Then, they activate some loonier outfits, keeping enough plausible deniability to ensure the blame is not all laid on their door. When one of those backfires, that does not stop them from trying again. At some point, their Lebanese allies will "retaliate" against Israel's attack on Hummus.

You can take our land, but you can never, ever, take our falafel!

Then again, that part depends on Iran, and the Mullahs appear to have grown cautious. Lebanese cuisine may be excellent, but it is nothing compared to the witches' brew those Persians Barbudos are cooking... Or thinking they're cooking.

They can also claim that some of their citizens have been kidnapped in Lebanon. That’s an easy charge to make; they only need to list those citizens their own services continue to “disappear”.

Well, it's not that Bashar is afraid OF freedom. He's afraid FOR freedom.

And yes, he'll still respect you in the morning.

I would not be surprised to see Michel Kilo or others on the list of those we ungrateful Lebanese isolationists kidnapped. They could also blame those devious Jews, but for now, the objective remains Beirut and its banks.

Then, since this regain of “activity” does not get them much attention, why not throw in a tantrum closer to home? Yes, the side effect would be the loss of a few Syrian lives, but it’s not like this regime has not been there before… So just add them to the Hama roster, it’s only statistics, after all.

And after that, follow-up this regain of activity with some good ol’ fashioned bombing, and since the Iranians appear to be too cautious (for now), why not some ol’ time kidnapping(s)?

As he gathers his Schutzstaffel, Bashar is hoping that someone Sooner or later, someone may well ask the “secular” Syrian regime to join the fight against the common “Jihadist” enemy, and take charge of security in Northern Lebanon. Then the whole of Lebanon... Bwahahaha.

In that respect, the Syrians appear to be "betting on Barak". But if the Syrians expect him to change course on foreign policy and undermine his country’s own interests, they have another thing coming. Personally, I do not trust the guy, though smarter people distrust McCain. But I know one thing; whatever Obama's disagreements with McCain on foreign policy, they are merely tactical.

The US strategy remains the same.

And the Syrian “salami tactic” remains just that; a tactic. And no substitute for strategy.

Stupidity (2/2)

2008-10-04T15:06:00.005+03:00

In the midst of all the political muck around us, Joe Biden's been outdoing Palin Sirah, pr maybe just getting ahead of himself... and ourselves.

I missed the memo on when te United States "kicked [Hezb'O] out of Lebanon. And I hope nobody tries again, as it will be fatal to Lebanon. Nasrallah and his goons are not the disease that afflicts Lebanon, but one symptom of the deeper Arab disease;

Just one party out of many who claim to be inspired by God.

If one thing was common to all those who walked on that famous day of March 14, it is that most Lebanese are eager to get Allah out of any of our Hezbs. The trouble is we still haven't figured out how; it's going to be hard as long as we still haven't fully accepted that, thanks to mass media, God now may have other options than to send isolated prophets... Maybe we should start by getting those Hezbs and Zaims out of our hearts, thus leaving room in there for our children.

Until we do that, we Lebanese will remain the stupidest of God's creatures, our best and brightest emigrating away, leaving only rawhide to flock around the Qislings who slaughter them.

Stupidity (1/2)

2008-09-17T22:08:00.013+03:00

This winter, the Middle East is heating up, and so is

Lebanon

. But let's start with the international scene first; the

United States

. I am surprised no one has picked up on Taheri's New York Post

Yes, Taheri cried wolf far too often, but this time he appears to be on the level. And yes, it's no lipstick, but the implications are far worse. Most notably, Obama's response all but confirms Taheri's claims!

Heck. I can understand that journalists are stuck in "group think", but I cannot see they can miss this one; after all, there's no lobbying egging them away from the truth. Normally, US elections would not matter to us foreigners; past history shows that whoever is elected will tend to maintain the policies of previous administrations. But this one may be different; yes, domestically Obama's plans appear superior to McCain's, but in Obama's approach there are elements on foreign policy that are downright stupid.

In the short term, there'll be hell to pay until an Obama administration wises up. This may be secondary to the concern of many in the United States; we ragheads do not matter; we do not vote in the US elections, and only the economy really matters. However, while Oil matters more than Arab blood (and in this case American blood too), the United States is not an Island.

Not anymore...

Update/Note:

Gus rightly points out that those are technically separate agreements. However, there are larger issues here, beyond the point raised by Taheri that the two agreements are essentially linked.

The main concern here is that Obama's actions give the appearance of fundamental disharmony within the United States, and this could create a dangerous precedent. A president Obama would then expect his foreign interlocutors to stall, since they would expect political challengers to undermine him from within. Such undermining may not be unprecedented in American history, but its level and brashness is.

This perception of "two Americas" will further weaken the position of the United States in the region; Americans would be vain to think that theirs is still "a shining city on a hill".

The rest of the world is watching...

... And learning.

Update/Follow-up (September 24^th, 2008):

Many a commenter pointed out that Tahery's report is misleading and, at best, simplistic. The basic arguments advanced by Tahery has been (again) refuted, and I apologize for not updating the post sooner... I tend to follow a “feast or famine” cycle, and work has been getting in the way of blogging lately.

Still, while that may be a reason, it’s no excuse…

However, it's not a complete crow breakfast for me; my main point remains valid: America’s not isolated. In this globalized world, I feel foreign forays by candidates, such as Obama's latest, can risk undermining the standing of the United States. Granted, this standing was not helped by the policies of Dubya Harding so far, but when addressing foreigners will little concept of plural democracy, this gives the appearance of disunity.

On another note, economic nationalism may be leading the august burghers who rule "shining city on a hill" to forgo the advantages fo globalization. Maybe Paulson does not need those 700 Billion after all; there's plenty of money in the world that's may be willing to get a slice of the action. Or maybe he's worried about his (incompetent) friend's golden parachutes... But I digress again, we have enough on our plate already.

Back to my main point; in an increasingly globalized world, America’s can longer afford to consider itself an isolated city on a hill anymore. Internal shenanigans have an external effect, and foreigners are now increasingly playing in its internal politics, as evidenced by the latest foray by Maliki, who’s proving to be no pushover, but no enlightened liberal either. Whoever gets this hot potato will like have to butt a few friendly heads. In this context:

Facts will matter less than perceptions.

Gimmicks

2008-09-14T05:23:00.006+03:00

In previous centuries, rhetoric was a major academic topic. As an essential part of their education, many a real gentleman became masters in this art. The “art of saying nothing in flowery language”.

Today, and ever since the rise of advertising executives, “communication” is it. Yet the art of “mad men” is essentially not much different from that of past orators. Only their palette is much richer; beyond words, they add in images and sound. Maybe this is why they increasingly taking themselves seriously, thinking their marketing matters more than the product itself.

Across the world

The news feeds are full of such examples. The best example is found in the United States where the Democrats, having dropped a solid contender for a hyped-up longshot, are growing angry at the Republicans (and themselves) for beating them at their own game. As the campaign heats up, vacuous talk about “change” is met by no meaningless jibes about lipstick as the campaign is moving away from real issues and degrading into a high school popularity contest.

Thanks GK for the vid link...

And the World is Emulating Them

Others are “communicating” as well. Iran’s oil money is being put to good use in Photoshop launches. Venezuela’s oil wealth is allowing him to invite a few Russian pilots and sailors for a tour of Caracas… And now, we Lebanese have found the way forward for dialogue; not a round table, but a rectangular table. As the leaders gather around to sit, one may suggest they turn the table over, dispense with the chairs. They will at least know how the average Lebanese citizen feel.

Those gimmicks will get us all nowhere fast. The United States elections will not change the fundamental dynamic of a complex economy. No Russian sailors can save Chavez’ legacy; his cash will run out before his oil does.

Closer to Home…

As for Lebanon, what was true yesterday remains true today; our “leaders” can fool some people (and themselves) all the time, and all people some of the time. But their best efforts at rhetoric or “communication” will fail on the long run;

They have yet to devise a way to fool all the people.

In this regard, Hezb’O is trying hard. But they’re finding increasingly hard to hide the blood on their hands.

Reality will bite soon enough...

On the Way to Cannae...

2008-09-07T08:00:00.000+03:00

La politique, c'est comme l'amour, il faut des grands sentiments et des petites intentions.

Bashar appears to understand this well, and all his grand talk about peace in the Middle East and fighting terror only hides a very pedestrian goal; to return to Lebanon.

An Odd Delusion

However, it appears many others choose to ignore this simple truth. This is an odd delusion. No wonder some suspect the devious intentions of those who insist on “prying Syria away from Iran”. And they would be right; some of those guys have ulterior motives, hoping that Bashar would grant what the Palestinians could never cede.

However, when it comes to the French and even Hezb, I prefer to reserve judgment; with Baku-Ceyhan back under Russian control (again), the core interests of an oil-obsessed West cannot accept continued Iranian alignment with Syria. It is odd that le Petit Nicolas did not hear this délicieuse petite phrase; not only was he nearby when Michele Barzach uttered it, but his Italian wife must surely have shared with him the disappointments of her compatriots…

Is he rushing things?

Or is it just Manoeuvring?

Improving his hand for when the Americans come back?

It is also odd that Hezb is increasingly undermining the state. Yes, strategically, the party remains the antithesis of Lebanon; as the country’s being slowly gutted, this primus inter pares among our national sectarian groups will ultimately destroy it. However, tactically, they have an growing list of immediate concerns, so why add to them by attacking the Army, and vigorously defending Bashar?

Or is it just Hubris?

Do the leaders really believe their newspeak?

What Gives?

Those behaviours are odd.

From Hezb’s side, it is odd that their experienced military leadership is expanding the “line of contact”, and negating their advantages. Yes, the region’s political establishment is all but bankrupt, and would be easy target were they not propped by hype and easy oil money… But tactically, it would make sense to focus on the limited goal of consolidating their “home front”.

From the French side, most of their foreign policy has a mercantile bent, and there is little "hard" interest there; while the Lybian deals may be falling through, but Syria cannot afford enough Airbus planes to really matter. The French policies may owe more to a post-Bush mindset than to a genuine concern about Syria, a country whom most of those so-called analysts could not have placed on a map till Bashar’s assassination of Hariri.

You mean the tooth fairy didn’t do it?...

However, while George Bush will (deservedly) go down in history as the “worst president ever”, the criticism against him owes more to his incompetence in Iraq than to his invasion.

And yes, Bush is still right on Syria.

Random chance?...

Even Gebran “Kélém” Bassil appears to understand the need to keep a distance from the (not so) tired dictator.

...

Oops! I did it again

2008-09-05T14:46:00.003+03:00

Those who ignore the lessons of history are condemned to repeat it. The same goes for those who misunderstand those lessons.

Lebanon’s was subjected to successive tragedies by the miscalculations of its past leaders. Each in their turn followed the Syrian model; use their own sectarian base, and leverage a political issue to rule the entire country.

It did not work.

Hezb seems to think it can work for them this time around; after all, they have “the Shiites” united behind them. The sectarian logic appears impeccable; after all, it worked for Syria’s Alawites, didn’t it?

It will not work.

The same sectarian logic defeats it. Once you divide a country into sectarian groups, the communities themselves will be divided. In the past, “the maronites” who were united under the banner of the Lebanese Forces in their little canton soon find themselves fighting amongst one another. From Safra, to Intifada, to Harb-el-Tahrir, “they” brought upon the country more Syrian oppression.

In addition, the regional equation does not support it. Relying on the support of the Syrians and Iranians may not ingratiate Hezb to the people who really matter now; the Saudis. The Saudi-Iranian struggle in the Gulf is slowly seeping into Lebanon, and turning the conflict with Hezb into a Sunni-Shiite conflict.

It has already started.

What did they expect after invading Beirut. What do they expect after attacking the army?

It does not take a veteran to realize that mere gunmen cannot shoot down an army helicopter. Even the Lebanese Army’s antique Huey chopper are beyond the reach of the average AK or M16, and require more potent firepower, and a more stable firing platform.

It does not take a geographer to realize that the region where the chopper was brought down is controlled by Hezb. And as such, Hezb is responsible; either their goons acted willingly, or they were incompetent to control their own region.

Either way, it does not take a logician to see who really did this; it is whoever killed Rafic Hariri, constantly undercut the state, invaded Beirut and violently brought down a government.

And what if Nasrallah was no mere liar or mythomaniac? What if he was sincere in his claims of innocence?

Then it is worse than we though; he lost control over his goons.

Or maybe he never did; Assad remains a "player", after all.

On Charisma

2008-08-28T15:54:00.006+03:00

Heck, I’m way off topic here (again). But I just couldn't resist; after Gamal, Kamal, Bachir, Aoun, Hassan, we have grown allergic to charismatic "leaders". And now the United States are falling to the fad; rather than a substantive McCain-Hillary fight, we are witnessing a marketing and branding contest.

...

This is not Baalbeck, and O'Bama's no Fairouz. Just a shrewd, smooth talking political operative. But just as those charismatic Arab failures of our past (and present) history have demonstrated, it takes more than jaw-jaw to do run-run.

I guess ones does not even need rattles to move men; smooth words would do. Let’s hope they don’t make a habit of it; American Idol is already pitiful enough...

Beati pauperes spiritu

...

Georgia on my Mind

2008-08-23T21:39:00.007+03:00

Ah, the ironies of the Great Game…

There is much hyperbole and little fact/background in teh news nowadays. The media is not really aware that , in its invasion of Georgia, the Kremlin has taught the White House a masterly lesson in geography, teaching them Yankees not to venture too far into mother Russia’s “Near Abroad”. You would think the State Department’s Kremlinologist-en-chef would know better, but recall that she (and most others) misread (to put it mildly) the collapse of the Soviet Union, in spite of much evidence… How about putting some real Russia experts on the payroll?

However, is Tsar Putin now overreaching? Or is he merely going for some more leverage?

Syria’s Russian Gamble

In the short term, the Syrian move towards Russia may pay off. On one easter front/province, the Lebanese leadership appears cowed, for now, and their Hezb’O’Clients have the run of the land. On the southern front, a headless Israeli government is providing them with the necessary cover.

This venture into Russia’s “Near Abroad” may well pay off in the immediate. But Assad’s regime is far weaker than it appear; not only is his support largely based on a shaky sectarian base, he is unable to secure his own high command’s security. Yes, he can still pull the strings in Lebanon, and he will do so forcefully. But this will only confirm what Hezb’s last “victory” has achieved; to confine Syria’s “support” in Lebanon to the imprisoned Shiite community. And even then, it’s not much of support; who do you think carried out those attacks that were carried out against Syrian workers?

“Eminent Domain” versus “Near Abroad”

however, On the long run, because of this shaky support the Syrian hopes are likely to be dashed.

We Lebanese have learned that you cannot fight geography; much of our opposition to Syria has more to do with the current sectarian mafia that rules the country, and little with the country itself. After all, many of us have family there, and more do good a brisk business.

However, the Syrians are still stuck in the days of the Damascus Congress, with assembly of pseudo-representatives (s)elected on the “selective, rather than the elective principle”, claimed us as part of a “Greater Syria”, as well as with what today is Iraq, Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Territories. Some like to add Cyprus to the mix… I guess as long as they’re dreaming…

All Syrians grew up soaking in the myth of glorious Omeyyads, the stories of the deviousness of those “Isolationists” in the wayward “Eastern Province”, the plight of occupied Iskenderun. This current crop of Syrian leaders may actually have been raised to believe this newspeak, and the mirage of Greater Syria leads them to venture into the “Near Abroad”.

As they venture deeper, the Syrian leadership may be getting ready for another geography lesson, a crash course in the Carter Doctrine.

American Geography

The Carter Doctrine is little more than a 20^th Century version of the Monroe Doctrine.

The Monroe Doctrine is often mistaken as purely isolationist. And in a sense, it is; but when the 5^th President of the United States considered America’s “Eminent Domain”, King Coal reigned supreme and his country was (and still is) its Saudi Arabia. Today, Oil is the blood of the economy, and, with more than 40% of proven reserves, the Middle East is its bleeding heart… And Hormuz its jugular vein.

In the immediate, the Americans are distracted with their elections. But come November, whoever is elected will have to worry about how to power all those Abram tanks. Mc Cain may waste less time navel gazing than Obama, but either one will ultimately move to reassert America’s right on its own “Eminent Domain”.

And the fact remains that Syria, like Lebanon and the rest of the Middle East, are part of America’s “Eminent Domain”. And unless there’s another Nakhimov waiting in the wings, the Siloviki may not be willing to push far beyond Sebastopol. And the Bitkhonim in Israel may not really follow through with Brest-Litovsk, especially if the Americans remain unwilling to sell out Lebanon.

So, since the Syrian regime will one day learn that simple leitmotif; you cannot fight geography, especially not when you continue oppressing your own people and proclaiming fake reforms. So , now that they back from their Bastille Day vacation, maybe we should start them on the Dummies version of Geography, Lesson 1, which we owe to the mismanagement of generations of short-sighted Arab "leaders";

It may be our sand, but it’s their oil.

Moral Equivalence

2008-08-18T15:32:00.006+03:00

It looks like Lebanese Prisoners in

Syria

will be not returned anytime soon; the Syrians are now asking

Lebanon

for the return of their disappeared citizens.

Fair Enough.

One would expect normal countries would are sincere about reconciliation to address such issues, and settle past injustices.

Except that Syrian troops had been in Lebanon since at least 1976, with checkpoints on almost every street corner, and with their mokhabarat kidnapping and killing with impunity. One would think that, if they really had any citizen disappear in Lebanon, they would have been able to find them.

Oddly Enough…

One would expect normal governments to point out such minor logical flaws.

Except that Lebanese officials have turned their coats so frequently that now they can only lower their pants. When good men make bad choices, it is the innocent who pays.

The True Number of Detainees

We have looked at the data on true number of detainees. The data is patchy, but one thing emerges; of those detainees released so far, less than 20% were actually claimed by their families. We have carried out a cursory “review” of those families who did not claim their own.

We noted two interesting facts;

First, many of those extended families had more family members still detained in Syria. It appears that, after one person is kidnapped, anyone who came up to complain or request their release was kidnapped as well.

Second, many of those families are in regions with extensive Syrian presence. Many are Shiites who are affiliated neither with Hezb, nor with Berri’s Amal party; in Lebanon’s sectarian “cold peace”, they have little avenues to seek redress.

So, you do the math. Knowing take a low number of SOLIDE’s claimed 400 hundred detainees. It is likely that they represent a mere 20% of the actual “population” of detainees. Therefore, there would be about 2,000 Lebanese detainees in Syria who are either still held, or were actually “disappeared” by the Syrian regime.

To those who would like better "data sources" than this biased blog, there are more reliable sources of information. But Fermi's approach is a good enough guide for this situation, and a more detailed analysis will come up with a similar number; it's all about orders of magnitude, after all, and you would expect more than 400, and less than 10,000, the number of people still missing during the Lebanese war.

Plenty of Blame?

And no, I am forgetting that there were other “players” in Lebanon during the civil war. Yes, the actual number of people who were “disappeared” during the war number more than 10,000, not all of them attributable to Syria. But since 1991, Syria, and Hezb to some extent, were the only “players” in Lebanon, and they could have easily found whoever was missing if they really wanted to. Or they could have easily "disappeared" those they did not like...

We Lebanese have our faults, but there can be no moral equivalence between our government’s serial incompetence in this matter and the Syrian regime’s serial killing in our country.

As our government appears set to abdicate any last shreds of authority (not to mention decency), it is no wonder everyone’s hedging, re-hedging, and cross-hedging their bets.

So good luck running free and fair elections in all that...