Five Rupees

Strategy And War In Pakistan And Afghanistan: Some Questions

2009-12-08T06:17:00.007Z

On the heels of today's devastating attack in Lahore, which killed 45 people and injured about one hundred, we were treated to a front page article in the NYT that would be of interest to many Pakistanis. The article describes the Obama administration's efforts to cajole the Pakistan government and military to "do more". In essence, the message that has been delivered is: do the job, or get out of the way. The administration has explicitly threatened drone strikes in Quetta and boots on the ground in FATA if Pakistan doesn't act against those actors that threaten Afghanistan and allied forces, but not Pakistan directly. On cue, the NYT editorial page joins in the fun, and urges Pakistani military and civilian leaders to realize that this war is for the nation's survival, and that more must be done in confronting the so-called Afghan Taliban. Well, I love a good lecture from the NYT any time I can get one, so I'm grateful for that. But let's deal with some of the questions that this set of events has engendered.

1. What exactly will it take for opinion-makers and decision-makers in the West to draw a connection between their strategies and the enormous physical toll on Pakistan? To be clear, I am not arguing for or against particular strategies. What am I arguing for is a comprehensive evaluation of the implications of various theories of war and conflict. The NYT and Obama administration both have a theory of this war, and that's fine; everybody does, and who's to say, prima facie, who's right and who's wrong? But surely -- surely -- there should be some allusion to what Pakistanis are going through right now? Some signal that the some two and half thousand deaths in the last two years, the nearly five hundred dead in the last two months, somehow, some way, factor into the calculus?

The NYT editorial comes close, when discussing why the military doesn't strike against the Taliban in Balochistan when it says "In part, they are hesitating because of legitimate fears of retaliation." But why, pray tell, are these fears legitimate? Doesn't the NYT bear some responsibility for educating its readers to explain what real retaliation looks like? Real numbers, perhaps? This is not a minor quibble, though it may look like it is to outsiders because I am picking apart at a sentence or two in an entire editorial. The central point remains that people simply have no clue about the lives lost in this war in Pakistan. So let me help you with that:

AFP/Arif Ali

AP/K.M. Chaudary

There are no candlelight vigils, no Facebook groups, and no Fareed Zakaria specials for Pakistani victims of militant violence. To some extent, this is the result of image problems. Pakistan is a "bad actor" in the international system, and as such, deserves little sympathy. After all, wasn't it Pakistan itself that gave rise to these groups in the first place? Indeed it was. But it is a strange moral and strategic compass that blames women and children shopping at Moon Market for the sins of GHQ and the ISI.

2. Do people understand that Balochistan is an entire problem unto itself? Newsflash, brainiacs at the NYT editorial board: there has been a low level civil war simmering in Balochistan since 2004. This follows the medium level civil war in Balochistan in the mid 1970s. Both times, the military went in, and both times, as the Pakistani military is wont to do, there wasn't a great deal of demonstrated concern for collateral damage.

The people of Balochistan have been denied basic political and economic rights, both by the central government and their nationalist so-called leaders for fifty years now. The last month has seen significant developments in this conflict, with the center -- in the hands of the PPP -- presenting a reform package aimed at placating Balochi nationalism, without much success (at least at this early juncture). If you opened a Pakistani newspaper in the last thirty days, you would know this. It has dominated the news, even more so than the Taliban war.

Why do I bring this up? Because launching drone strikes in Balochistan, and the inevitable civilian casualties that will result, will exacerbate this problem in very serious and predictable ways. I feel stupid even writing this. But apparently it is needed.

Here's how it will play out: Balochi grievances will congeal into both an anti-Pakistan narrative and an anti-anti-Taliban one. The storyline will be that the state has sold out Balochi land to foreign forces, when it wasn't even theirs to sell. Balochistan has long chafed under the hard-nosed attitude of Pakistani central governments, both military and civilian, toward provincial autonomy and federalism. Can you imagine how it will react if and when Pakistan gives the go-ahead for American drones to strike in Quetta? Or even less ambitiously, can you imagine the military making a foray into Balochistan again? At this time?

I don't mean to be rude, but for fuck's sake, NYT, get a goddamn clue.

3. Are the Obama administration's ultimatums empty threats? I have to say, upon reading the news article for the first time, that's what I thought. Why? Because surely they know that they cannot do either of the things they are threatening to do if Pakistan does not comply. They can't use drones without the explicit permission of the Pakistani government; that much is clear from the carefully calibrated ways in which the policy first got underway under the Bush-Mush partnership, and expanded considerably under the Barry-Zarry partnership. And they can't use Special Ops without risking considerable blowback from the Pakistani military especially; the last time it happened, the military leadership let them know in no uncertain terms that it was not on.

So if they can't do it, why would they threaten to do it? That was my logic the first time I read the piece. And then I sat back, and reflected. And it dawned on me that looking at the credibility of the threat is probably the wrong prism with which to analyze it.

No, what matters more here is the content of the threat: two very big sticks. The Obama administration has seriously broken with the Bush team on this in a significant way. The threats are louder and more ominous, but the sweet talk is gentler and more wide-ranging. While the Bushies generally cared only about the military status quo in the country, we hear time and again from this administration the potential of a broader strategic partnership. The NYT editorial even referenced Obama's promises of "what one aide described as a partnership of “unlimited potential” in which Washington would consider any proposal Islamabad puts on the table." Such promises lack the credibility of the threats above, perhaps even more so, but they do an adequate job of conveying a sense of urgency that was, I daresay, absent from the Americans before. Bigger sticks, yes, but also bigger carrots. The logic, I think, is that by raising the stakes of a bad strategic choice by the Pakistani military, you increase the likelihood of a good strategic choice.

Of course, all this assumes that this is a choice, which brings me to...

4. Is the Pakistan military not going after the Afghan Taliban because of a lack of willingness or a lack of ability? I've talked about this at length before, but it's not immediately clear to me why the military is not going after the Afghan Taliban at this point in time. The Americans seem to think it's because they don't want to and that they don't consider them a threat; to the contrary, the Americans believe that the Pakistani military thinks of the Afghan Taliban as a strategic ally in its rivalry with India. And certainly, there is little evidence disproving this hypothesis.

On the other hand, it is an hypothesis that is not falsifiable, at least right now. That is because assuming the military even wanted to, it couldn't do so. They are mired in a whack-a-mole war right now, jumping from Swat to the wider Malakand division to the northern areas of FATA (Bajaur, Khyber) to South Waziristan. All these operations have been undertaken against sworn enemies of the Pakistani state and groups involved in the killing of Pakistani civilians. In other words, they have their hands full with anti-Pakistan groups, rendering action against anti-US/NATO groups basically impossible. So as things stand, we simply cannot know if this is a matter of intentions or a matter of capabilities.

One piece of idle speculation: why are we so sure that the Pakistani military cannot turn against the Afghan Taliban for now, and then cultivate them later? To be clear, I am not arguing for this position by any stretch. But I do think we need to consider the military's incentives here.

Consider that the American theory of the military's goals is that they (the military) want an ally in post NATO Afghanistan, and thus are not acting against the Afghan Taliban right now. But why does that ally have to be this particular incarnation of the Afghan Taliban? Is it not at least plausible that if the Pakistani military leadership really did want to exert influence in Afghanistan through a local proxy, that they could cultivate that proxy at a later time? It's not as if they don't have the practice or know-how; hell, they've been doing it for nearly twenty years. Why not go after the Afghan Taliban now, satisfy the Americans, and then make a new Afghan Taliban in 2012 to make everyone's lives miserable?

Make no mistake, such a strategy would make everyone's lives miserable -- both in Afghanistan and Pakistan. We've seen this movie before, and we know how it ends. But that's my view, one of a poor pathetic liberal who doesn't understand the world and the way it works. The Pakistani military could, and probably would, see things differently. So why does everybody assume a logic on behalf of the military that may not hold?

If Pakistan Was A Vegetable, What Would It Be?

2009-12-05T08:47:00.003Z

So apparently our Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani was quoted by Al-Jazeera English as saying "Pakistan is a country. It is not a vegetable that someone can come and take it." Indeed.

The obvious question, however, is: if Pakistan was a vegetable, what would it be? My nominations is the onion, because it has too many layers for its own good, and it makes you cry.

To help you in your analogical quest, here's a list of vegetables from Wiki.

Real Groups Of Death Have Four Good Teams, Not Three Very Good Teams

2009-12-04T18:50:00.002Z

I just watched the World Cup draw on ESPN2. First of all, let me say that Charlize Theron is fine.

Second, I get very annoyed when I hear commentators and analysts instantly opine on which is the so-called Group of Death. Mainly because they're wrong. Before I explain, here's the draw:

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France

Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia

Group D: Germany, Australia, Ghana, Serbia

Group E: Holland, Japan, Cameroon, Denmark

Group F: Italy, New Zealand, Paraguay, Slovakia

Group G: Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal

Group H: Spain, Honduras, Chile, Switzerland

Looking at that, the analysts immediately said that Group G is the Group of Death, mainly because they've heard of Cristiano Ronaldo and Didier Drogba. This is stupid. Portugal simply aren't a very good team. They really struggled through qualifying -- even with Crystiano -- and unlike Argentina and France, who also struggled, there's no upside there. I don't see anyone other than Brazil and Cote d'Ivoire getting through there.

More generally, groups of death normally take place when you have absolutely no freebies. North Korea is patently a freebie. There are actually two groups of death for next year: Group B and Group D. None of the eight teams in those groups can really be thought of as the top favorites for the entire tournament, but not one of the twelve matches in those groups is easily predictable. Not one.

I will say this about Group G: it's hard enough getting through that group, but then when you consider that the first knock-out game for the teams getting through will be either Spain or Chile...wow. If one of Brazil or Spain mess up in their groups, and somehow finish second, can you imagine a round of 16 knockout between those two? Yikes.

Oh, and Italy? Lucky buggers. Though it bears mentioning Paraguay are not an easy out.

Isn't It Time Rehman Malik Resigned?

2009-12-04T18:36:00.003Z

My question has nothing whatsoever to do with his famous proclamation that he would resign if the presence of Blackwater in Pakistan was proved -- which it has been, if you believe Jeremy Scahill.

No, my concern is rather more simple than that: as Interior Minister, Rehman Malik is supposed to ensure that Pakistani citizens are as safe and secure as possible. Now, I understand we are in a war, and foolproof security is simply not possible.

But the sheer number and deadliness of attacks suggests that him and his team have no clue about what they're doing. The latest attack, using both gunfire and suicide bombs, took place in Rawalpindi and killed 35 people, 17 of them children. In a mosque. While they were praying.

Moreover, when you account for his blame deflecting statements on "foreign hands" being responsible for violence in Pakistan, and his general inability to stay on message and reassure Pakistani people, you begin to wonder: what exactly is he good for?

I know accountability is a four-letter word in Pakistani political circles. But Pakistanis are suffering, and Rehman Malik needs to pay penance for that with his job.

Intelligence Agencies Are Sometimes Wrong And Stupid

2009-12-04T07:35:00.002Z

News reports often rely on quotes from both sourced and anonymous intelligence officials, usually to paint a particular picture of some political conflict. I always practice healthy skepticism toward anything intelligence officials say. Mind you, this does not mean I simply disbelieve anything they say, or that I'm one of those nutty people who believe in global conspiracies hatched in Langley, Virginia. I just believe that we should exercise scrutiny when we are told things by these people, because (a) they can be wrong, and (b) they can have an agenda.

For an example of (a), please read this article (via Mosharraf's twitter) about eleven Pakistani students in Britain who basically had their lives turned upside down. They were accused of being al-Qaeda agents because...

1. A few of them went to Wales in January, took their shirts off, and took pictures of themselves flexing muscles. This was interpreted as commando training by MI 5.

2. A few of them chose to eat together in Liverpool and Manchester. This was interpreted as "operational activity" by MI 5.

3. One of them, finding a wife through a matchmaking website, sent an email to the others which said: "My mates are well and my affair with Nadia is soon turning to family life. I met with Nadia family and we both parties have agreed to conduct the Nikkah [Islamic marriage contract] after 15th and before 20th of the month." The name "Nadia" was interpreted by MI 5 as a pseudonym for "explosive" and the email in general was interpreted as warning of a bomb attack.

If you think I am lying or joking, go read the article for yourself.

Live (Okay, Sort Of Live) Blogging Barack Obama's Afghanistan Speech (Updated Below)

2009-12-02T04:26:00.005Z

I had to go to a department dinner, so I missed Obama's speech as he delivered it, but thanks to the wonders of technology, I am going to watch it on the NYT website. I will blog my thoughts as I watch it "live". Before we begin, I think I should stipulate for the record that this is Obama's earliest, biggest and dumbest mistake. 30k additional troops for counter-insurgency in a poor, rural country that's been at war for more than thirty years, has no viable central government, and has never been subdued by foreign forces? Right. Anyway, I'm beginning the speech at 10:30 p.m., just so you know where I am during the speech.

10:30 p.m. Man, the cadets at West Point look like they're dressed for an alien movie.

10:31 p.m. "We did not ask for this fight." Ok, fair enough. But you do realize the fight that was started on 9/11/2001 bears no resemblance whatsoever to the war today, right?

10:32 p.m. My friend, al-Qaeda's base may have been in Afghanistan, and they may have gotten sanctuary from the Taliban, but you know where they got their flight training? Florida. In fact the list of training centers for al-Qaeda terrorists in the last ten years include: London, Spain, Indonesia, Germany, the U.S., Pakistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Egypt...and that's just off the top of my head. The safe haven argument doesn't make much sense. But what do I know?

10:34 p.m. Hahaha. Nice job not reliving the Iraq war debate at West Point. Kudos.

10:37 p.m. Here's the nicest thing I can say about this strategy: he's sticking to his word. Anyone who followed the campaign even superficially knew that he wanted to wind down the war in Iraq only to transfer resources to Afghanistan. This is not a surprise.

10:38 p.m. "The status quo is not sustainable". Alright, so we agree on one thing.

10:40 p.m. So he's sending 30,000 troops to bring them back in three years? Does anyone believe that will actually happen? I'm not saying he's lying, I'm just saying he's being disingenuous. Wars have their own momentum. Remember, Rummy and Condi and Cheney thought the U.S. would leave Iraq in a few weeks or months. That was almost seven years ago.

10:42 p.m. His argument is that Central Asia is "vital" to American security because that's where the last attack came from and where, presumably, the next attack is being planned. But what global terrorism has shown is that having a safe haven on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for terrorist attacks. So in what sense are American security interests vital?

10:44 p.m. Poor Lynd...er, sorry, I mean poor Barack.

10:45 p.m. So the objectives are: strengthen the central Afghan government; draw back the influence of the Taliban and al-Qaeda, advise, assist and train Afghan security forces; encourage competence from the Karzai regime; focus on agriculture.

10:49 p.m. Uh, Barry? You know no Afghan is watching this, right? There's no need to address them directly.

10:50 p.m. Oh, shit. The P-word.

10:51 p.m. Honestly? I know some of my readers are going to bite my head off, but I really liked the Pakistan section. Hit all the right notes, described the situation accurately, suggested the right solutions. Not saying it will work, mind, just saying I liked the words.

10:53 p.m. With the whole this isn't Vietnam/but the status quo won't work either/but a strong and open-ended escalation won't work either, it's clear what he's trying to do: chart a middle ground amongst strawmen position on the extremes. That's the classic Obamaist rhetorical technique.The only problem with this is that war isn't healthcare: middling policies is great politics, but doesn't always make for smart war. You're either all in or all out.

10:56 p.m. Ok, he at least understands that war abroad has real costs at home -- at least that's what I take from the discussion on the cost of the war and the budget deficit.

10:59 p.m. Hillary sighting! Nice.

11:00 p.m. Haha. I love that the U.S. president actually has to "prohibit torture". Good times.

11:01 p.m. Ah, American exceptionalism. I never get tired of hearing it. Listen, guys, seriously: you're like other empires in more ways than you think. Seriously. Just admit it and move on.

11:03 p.m. Bloody hell, he stopped talking about Afghanistan like ten minutes ago -- he's been talking about how great America is since then. Is this really necessary?

11:05 p.m. He closes the speech by staring into the camera and channeling George W. Bush. Seriously, watch that last minute, close your eyes, imagine it's George Bush's voice, and tell me the words don't sound out of place. For better or worse.

Well, that's that. As I said, I think this decision is his worst mistake -- easily -- from a U.S. perspective. From a Pakistani point of view, I'm not 100% sure of the implications to be honest. They could be very bad but they could improve the situation slightly in important ways. I'll probably take a day or two to gather my thoughts and write a proper post then.

UPDATE: This is the problem with liveblogging. While you're busy typing, you end up missing some of what is said. I take back my endorsement of the Pakistan section of his speech, mainly because of the stuff about nukes, and his implication that al-Qaeda could end up in control of a deliverable weapon. It's a stupid and false assertion.

Also, contrast his rhetoric in public with what the CIA is planning in private:

In recent months, in addition to providing White House officials with classified assessments about Afghanistan, the C.I.A. delivered a plan for widening the campaign of strikes against militants by drone aircraft in Pakistan, sending additional spies there and securing a White House commitment to bulk up the C.I.A.’s budget for operations inside the country.
The expanded operations could include drone strikes in the southern province of Baluchistan, where senior Afghan Taliban leaders are believed to be hiding, officials said. It is from there that they direct many of the attacks on American troops, attacks that are likely to increase as more Americans pour into Afghanistan.
“The president endorsed an intensification of the campaign against Al Qaeda and its violent allies, including even more operations targeting terrorism safe havens,” said one American official. “More people, more places, more operations.”
That was the message delivered in recent weeks to Pakistani officials by Gen. James L. Jones, the national security adviser. But the Pakistanis, suspicious of Mr. Obama’s intentions and his staying power, have not yet agreed.

Well, no shit. The obvious question becomes: where does this end? It started with FATA, it appears to be expanding into Balochistan (if the U.S. has its way). So, again, where does this end? If the U.S. believes they have actionable intelligence on al-Qaeda operatives in Karachi, will they bomb the city with drones? Rural southern Punjab? Urban northern Punjab? Because, let me tell you, the way the U.S. defines "al-Qaeda", al-Qaeda operatives are in each of those places.

Revolution Is Not A Dinner Party

2009-12-01T21:54:00.002Z

Please watch this Chinese news clip on the whole Tiger Woods thing (via Simmons' twitter):

By the way, the title of the post refers to a quote from Mao, which is the only Chinese phrase I know.

Tom Friedman Thinks People Should Be Grateful When Their Countries Are Bombed And Invaded

2009-11-30T21:08:00.004Z

I honestly did not want to write a post criticizing Tom Friedman -- mainly because it's too easy, and it's been done to death -- but I have a few minutes of spare time, so I thought: why the hell not?

Please read his description of U.S. conduct in the Muslim world:

Yes, after two decades in which U.S. foreign policy has been largely dedicated to rescuing Muslims or trying to help free them from tyranny — in Bosnia, Darfur, Kuwait, Somalia, Lebanon, Kurdistan, post-earthquake Pakistan, post-tsunami Indonesia, Iraq and Afghanistan — a narrative that says America is dedicated to keeping Muslims down is thriving.
Although most of the Muslims being killed today are being killed by jihadist suicide bombers in Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan and Indonesia, you’d never know it from listening to their world. The dominant narrative there is that 9/11 was a kind of fraud: America’s unprovoked onslaught on Islam is the real story, and the Muslims are the real victims — of U.S. perfidy.
Have no doubt: we punched a fist into the Arab/Muslim world after 9/11, partly to send a message of deterrence, but primarily to destroy two tyrannical regimes — the Taliban and the Baathists — and to work with Afghans and Iraqis to build a different kind of politics. In the process, we did some stupid and bad things. But for every Abu Ghraib, our soldiers and diplomats perpetrated a million acts of kindness aimed at giving Arabs and Muslims a better chance to succeed with modernity and to elect their own leaders.
The Narrative was concocted by jihadists to obscure that.

Actually, beneath the self-serving bullshit that regularly accompanies Friedman's columns, there is a grain of truth there: governments and populations in Muslim and Arab states do not like taking responsibility for their failings, and seek to deflect blame to other people and states. This state of affairs is deplorable, and from a personal perspective, I try to do everything I can to shine a light on the incredible stupidity that results when this modus operandi is employed with the regularity that it is (think Zaid Hamid blaming Pakistan's problems on a Hindu-Zionist-American-Mickey Mouse-Donald Duck conspiracy).

The only problem is that this grain of truth is buried under opinions so stupid that it boggles the mind. In Friedman's view, when people are invaded and bombed, they should be happy about it, because the U.S. really wants to "rescue Muslims" or "free them from tyranny". Torture and indiscriminate bombing should be excused because American soldiers and diplomats "perpetrated a million acts of kindness" (evidently this was not one of the million).

I believe a state as powerful as the U.S. will end up conducting itself in fairly aggressive ways -- that's just the U of C training in me. I also believe a state will try to justify its aggression and dress it up in benevolent language to make it look like they're doing something other than pursuing their national interests (think the White Man's Burden). Up to this point, I can follow the train logically and understand it (even if I don't necessarily like it).

But where I get completely lost is the third step: when the people in charge start believing what they say. Do neocons (the Krauthammer/Kristol crowd) and liberal imperialists (the Friedman crowd) genuinely believe that the world should be grateful when the U.S. bestows upon it the privilege of being invaded? All the evidence suggests: yes, they do. And the truly scary thing about this view is how widespread it is. In the academic world, I either come across directly, or speak to fellow academics who engage with, the Washingon crowd (think tankers, inside-the-Beltway journalists etc). It's actually quite amazing the extent to which these people believe their own bullshit. They really do think the world sees them as they see themselves, and are truly flummoxed when you try to tell them that it doesn't.

Anyway, if you want to see others piling on Friedman's column, read Steve Walt and Glenn Greenwald.

Reaction To The Scahill Piece On Blackwater Part II: What It Means For Pakistan

2009-11-30T17:43:00.003Z

This is the second post in a three part series on Jeremy Scahill's investigative piece on Blackwater in Pakistan. In the first post, I dealt with the extent to which we should buy Schaill's claims, seeing as how they were based exclusively on three anonymous sources. In this post, I deal with the impact of the revelations on Pakistani security and politics.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

One of the most interesting aspects about the Scahill piece is how muted the reaction to it has been. Most media outlets have only reported on the publishing of the article, and not carried many opinion pieces on it. Both the U.S. and Pakistani governments have also been largely silent on the issue of Blackwater in Pakistan, with the exception of Anne Patterson issuing a routine denial of Scahill's claims. To be honest, I simply do not know what to make of this. The revelations contained in Scahill's article are serious enough to merit a significant blow-back, but for whatever reason, that simply hasn't happened (as opposed to Sy Hersh's piece on nuclear security in Pakistan).

The most obvious and glaring aspect of the story is the fact that the military-intelligence complex in Pakistan purportedly gave Blackwater its blessing to operate in the country, as far back as 2007. This is interesting for a number of reasons. First, the military has always worn the robe of ultimate guardian of the state, and has always represented itself as fiercely defending Pakistan's sovereignty against all threats. Letting private security firms from the United States plan and execute military operations isn't exactly consistent with that image.

This brings me to my second point. Unlike most secrets, this one has been well-kept. The sensitive nature of the secret leads me to strongly believe that even within the military and intelligence networks, only a few know about Blackwater's role in Pakistan. More to the point, I'm almost dead sure that no one in the civilian establishment knew about this. Military policy and decisions, especially at the operational level, are left out of their hands anyway. In other words, when Rehman Malik said that Blackwater wasn't operating in Pakistan, and that he would resign if it was discovered that he was wrong, I don't think he was being disingenuous. I think he simply didn't know.

Which, in turn, leads me to a third point. One of the most common complaints in Pakistan, from observers of all stripes, is that the Zardari government is much too close to the U.S (just as, in these critics' view, the Musharraf government was much too close to the U.S; this pattern will be the subject of a future post). The permission or acquiescence granted to a private security firm by the government, were it to be widely revealed, would simply reinforce the perception of over-coziness. But the ironic thing, in this instance, would be that the civilian leadership would catch the blame for an enterprise entirely run by the military. Not dissimilar to Kargil in 1999, civilians could well end up paying penance for the military's mistakes.

The biggest question, from a purely Political perspective (note the uppercase "P"), is: how much does this matter? The answer to that isn't actually as clear-cut as one would imagine. On the one hand, it is incredibly bizarre, to say the least, to witness a sovereign government granting permission for international forces -- international mercenary forces -- to operate on its territory. This state of affairs raises a number of important questions, both at a theoretical as well as a practical level: how long is this supposed arrangement meant to last? Who exercises ultimate control over Blackwater's conduct in Pakistan -- JSOC, the Pakistani military, or Blackwater itself? Who will be accountable if Blackwater employees murder a cab driver in cold blood, as the Scahill piece alleges happened in South America? Who will be accountable if Blackwater employees go on a murderous rampage, as occurred in Iraq in 2007? Most importantly, how decayed is the capacity of the Pakistani state if it is literally outsourcing military operations to secure itself?

On the other hand, the concept of sovereignty is fairly tricky, and does not lend itself to soundbite-sized analysis. Broadly speaking, there are two elements that we think of when we refer to a state as sovereign: external and internal. Externally, a state is sovereign when other states respect its right to conduct its affairs as it sees fit. It is all about non-interference. Internally, sovereignty refers to a state's essential monopoly on the legitimate use of force within its geographic boundaries. It is all about control.

In this case, the two components of sovereignty are in opposition. It is certainly the case that Blackwater operating in Pakistan violates its external sovereignty, for the simple reason that you have an extra-territorial (private) actor involved in important aspects of state policy. But it is also the case that they are there by invitation -- the government of Pakistan has countenanced their presence. In one important sense, then, the state has conferred upon Blackwater a certain "legitimacy" with respect to its use of force. If anything, it is actors -- such as the Taliban -- who employ force without the government sanctioning it that violates Pakistan's sovereignty to a greater extent.

My interpretation of Scahill's revelations are that this speaks more loudly to concerns about Pakistan's capacity than Pakistan's sovereignty. It is immensely disturbing that despite this war having gone on for more than half a decade, the Pakistani government is still unable to deploy instruments of the state in order to achieve anything that looks like "victory" (however murkily that may be defined). At bottom, Mosharraf Zaidi's arguments for the centrality of Pakistan's state and institutional robustness, or lack thereof, in this conflict are accurate. Blackwater wouldn't even be an issue if the military and Frontier Corps and police and ISI were very good at what they do, and on the same page when they do it. Patently, this is not the case.

All this analysis, analysis which I would like to think is nuanced, is basically moot. At the basest and most visceral level, the presence of Blackwater on Pakistani soil to plan and conduct military activity is deeply offensive to the majority of the Pakistani population, and functionally speaking, that's all that matters. It actually makes the war that much harder to fight, because it feeds into the nationalist right's narrative of this being "America's war" and Pakistan being nothing more than a client state. And the only thing more dangerous than a nationalist right that is untethered to reality is a nationalist right untethered to reality which finds supportive evidence for its positions.

Real Win Respect, But Barcelona Win Three Points

2009-11-29T20:35:00.003Z

Forty one. That was the total number of fouls in the clasico between Barcelona and Real Madrid at the Camp Nou. And you know what? Barca did just fine. So often castigated for being too much beauty and not enough beast, Barca showed they can win (a) rugby matches, (b) when they're not playing especially well, (c) when the opposition takes it to them, and (d) when they play with ten men for half an hour (thanks, Busquets!).

Today's 1-0 win was strange for a number of reasons. First of all, I'm struggling to recall a game in which Barca relied on Puyol and Pique to the extent that they did. Normally, when Barca win games, it's because of the control they exert in the midfield through Xaviniesta, and the constant threat in the final third provided by the front three.

Today, both those aspects were absent. We didn't see dominance in the midfield because Pep stupidly decided to play Iniesta as a winger, leaving both Pedro and Ibra on the bench to start. This despite the fact that Xaviniesta have shown time and again that when they are side by side in the center of midfield, they are peerless. When one of them is absent, however, things can get ragged.

Moreover, the threat from the front three was nullified by an excellent (and sometimes dirty) Madrid defense and midfield. They pressured the ball from the first whistle -- Jose, you might want to take notes from this game for the next time you play Barca -- and, especially in the first half, gave Barca no room to breathe. And when Barca did find a little bit of space, Madrid simply committed tactical fouls (they committed 25 fouls in all, their entire backline other than Segio Ramos picked up a yellow, Lass picked up two in the second half alone, and even Marcelo got one for good measure).

What this meant was that Barca simply did not get going until the second half, when Real's intensity dropped off a little. Real actually threatened to score more than Barca, a strange occurrence if there ever was one. But Puyol and Pique (and Valdes, no doubt, with a crucial one-on-one save from Crystiano in the first half) would simply not allow it. Tackle after desperate tackle, lunge after last-second lunge, they were truly magnificent. Puyol, especially, showed everyone what a true leader does in big games: man up. What a performance, easily the man of the match.

It needed to be one too. Despite my well-documented hatred for Crystiano, I have to say, seeing him and Kaka together on the counter-attack had me covering my face in horror a couple of times. When Pellegrini gets his selection right (he must understand that with Kaka and Crystiano in the same team, only one of Higuain, Benzema and Raul can play, and it must be Higuain when he is fit), they are an incredibly scary team going forward. And when Busquets insanely handled to get his second yellow -- I have absolutely no idea what he was thinking -- I feared the worst.

I needn't have. On being reduced to ten men, Barca became galvanized and played as a unit. Xaviniesta dropped a little deeper, and Messi defended well into Barca's own half. It was almost heroic to see them repel attack after attack, corner after corner. When they did win the ball, they did everything they could to keep it, ensuring control in tight spaces and showing that skill will always beat strength. From the 60th minute on, it was just about counting the minutes down and keeping the one goal advantage.

A word about the goal and Ibra in general. Pretty much as soon as he stepped on to the pitch, Barca looked better. Henry was completely and utterly ineffective in his fifty-odd minute stint, again raising questions of Pep's selection. If Ibra was fit enough to play, he was fit enough to start. Why didn't he? Only Pep knows. But the bottom line is that when the substitution was made, space opened up, the passing in the final third became crisper, and Barca actually started looking like Barca. And the goal? Nothing else to say, except great run, expert finish (kudos, also, to Dani Alves for a pinpoint cross, because really, he did bugger all for the rest of the game). Ibra, a big-game bottler? Right.

So Barca, still unbeaten in La Liga, go top of the table with 30 points from 12 games, with Madrid two back and Sevilla a further two back. They owe that position mainly to their center backs, but also to a team spirit and ethos that simply refused to give in. Messi, especially, typified this approach, with an extraordinary work rate (and coming back after injury, no less) and control that kept Real to 38% possession. It was a great all-round team performance against a fired up Real team, who showed that last season was an aberration, and that the gap in quality between the two will be much smaller this year. Which, I suppose, is a fair return on 250 million Euros.

Live Blogging Pakistan Vs New Zealand 1st Test Day 5

2009-11-27T22:27:00.223Z

11:33 p.m. I'm really angry, because we wasted a lot of good performances. It's one thing when the entire teams plays shit. But we wasted 5 really good days of cricket by four or five guys. And there's no moral victories in coming close here, because I don't see how the next two will be different. Unless we drop Really Fucking Stupid Imran and Fawad actually fulfills his potential at three. It's heart-breaking to be so close to a test victory, but that's what's so beautiful about this version: it keeps you hanging and keeps you hanging, and then cuts you out.

Anyway, that's it from me. If any of the next test's play falls on a weekend, I might liveblog it, but otherwise, this is my last week off in a while, so it's probably not happening again for a while. Hope you enjoyed it, and see you around.

11:31 p.m. And it's all over. What looked like a bump ball was in fact a return catch from Aamer to Vettori. Congrats to the Kiwis. But really, you have to say, the only outfielded us. Our batting was better (they wouldn't have crossed 250 in either innings if we caught our catches). They definitely didn't outbowl us (can you imagine them taking 20 wickets with our fielding?). But their catching was so much better than ours that it rendered our efforts useless. So well done to them.

11:30 p.m. Sigh. Streaming issues.

11:28 p.m. Three off the over and Ajmal survives the one ball Aamer let him face.

11:25 p.m. We've obviously lost this, but let me say this: Asif, Aamer, Umar and Kamran have done nothing to disgrace themselves. Yousuf got a couple starts, but didn't carry on, but at least he looked in decent touch. Gullee played ok too, as did Ajmal. Everyone else other than Really Fucking Stupid Imran did badly. And Really Fucking Stupid Imran reached new levels of suckitude; he could scarcely have done more damage to our prospects if he actually played for NZ and made a hundred for them.

11:25 p.m. Aamer drives a full ball to deep cover for two.

11:24 p.m. O'Brien finally gives way to Martin. He will be bowling to Aamer.

11:23 p.m. More streaming issues.

11:21 p.m. And Asif's gone. Regulation dismissal; a defensive shot gets an edge, and Taylor takes a simple catch at slip. Farhat would've dropped it though. Last man Ajmal in.

11:20 p.m. Aamer's single off Vettori moves us to 213-8. Asif to face Vettori. Uh oh.

11:18 p.m. How long would Asif the batsman last against Asif the bowler? Longer than Walsh the batsman would last against Walsh the bowler, but not by much, let me tell you.

11:18 p.m. Dear streaming gods: if nothing else, let me watch us lose in peace. Many thanks and best regards, Ahsan.

11:16 p.m. Ok, my computer once again acted funny, but in the meantime, Aamer got a four off Vettori. I have no idea how. 211-8.

11:15 p.m. Aamer taps it into the offside for two.

11:14 p.m. Two slips and a short leg, and Vettori goes past a defensive prod from Aamer first up.

11:13 p.m. Vettori from the other end.

11:12 p.m. Goddamn, how is O'Brien still bowling? It's been 75 friggin minutes since tea. Bhai, go take a rest.

11:11 p.m. 205-8 it is then. Still somehow surviving.

11:10 p.m. Still no feed....

11:09 p.m. Well, my computer completely froze and everything shut down. Have we lost yet?

11:01 p.m. The NZ commentators look giddy. Fuckers.

11:00 p.m. Maybe we can play for a draw? 47 runs is obviously beyond us. Where's the rain when you need it?

10:58 p.m. We should be magnanimous here. Bond has bowled superbly, and he's gone full tilt for an hour after tea (and still going). The others have chipped in when needed. They caught their catches, and won the big moments.

10:58 p.m. I'm positively depressed.

10:56 p.m. Asif in.

10:54 p.m. And now Gullee's gone, hitting O'Brien right down the throat of mid-off. Don't know what he was trying to do there. I know it's a tough task, but he should at least pretend to try. No point throwing your wicket away. Sigh. 203-8, 48 away. Last rites time.

10:53 p.m. Stream issues, but frankly I don't care anymore. I'm gutted. Our bowlers and Umar Akmal deserve better. 10 runs each from the top three would've gotten us over the line. Sadly it was not to be.

10:52 p.m. Swing and a miss from Aamer. 199-7. Gullee will face up at the other end.

10:51 p.m. Bond beats Aamer with a ripper, and they all go up. Not out says Doctrove. They think about a review, but decide against it.

10:50 p.m. Aamer gets two to square leg. Pity, this performance. Real pity. So close and yet so far etc.

10:49 p.m. Bond continues to Aamer. By the way, let it be known: you cannot win test matches abroad with 3 batsmen. Can't happen.

10:48 p.m. Ok, Hawkeye shows that it would've hit. But it's a curious process: a bowling side review is subject to projected path displays, but batting side reviews are not. WTF?

10:45 p.m. I really don't understand this review process. Why isn't the projected path subject to review? The umpire is never going to overturn his decision there. I just don't understand...I'm genuinely curious. I mean, that could've been missing leg, and that could've been high. And it's another huge wicket. This is a stupid system. In any event, we're now fucked. Game's over. Gullee in to join Aamer. Still 54 away.

10:44 p.m. Real drama. An LBW appeal is upheld by Taufel. Kamran wants a review. Looks like it might be hitting leg. And it's given.

10:43 p.m. Easy, Kamran, easy. Tries to late cut one that dips in.

10:42 p.m. Kamran drives O'Brien to cover for two. How many overs can Bond have left? If there hadn't been a wicket there, I'm sure he would've finished. But now he'll probably get some more adrenaline and get through a couple more.

10:40 p.m. What a huge wicket. I would've trusted Umar to bat with the tail and get us through. Kamran? Not so much. Still 56 away. That looks a long, long way right now.

10:38 p.m. Gone! Bond gets Umar Akmal, at a crucial time! A slowish delivery, and Umar knocks it right back to him. As simple a catch as you'll get as a bowler. Umar goes for 75, and now NZ have to be favorites. Aamer in.

10:37 p.m. A single to deep cover. Umar back on strike.

10:36 p.m. Bond continuing to Kamran. How am I supposed to act polite while typing furiously and watching this finish? Something has to give. I think it will be the "politeness" bit.

10:35 p.m. Anyway, it's a maiden from O'Brien. Still 57 needed.

10:34 p.m. Well, the guest the W and I were expecting is now here. This will be very tricky, she's a relative of the W's.

10:33 p.m. A slight lull here, after that flurry immediately after tea. Don't mind that. Just steady now.

10:32 p.m. Umar still looks solid as a rock. This has been an Inziesque innings, it really has.

10:31 p.m. Safely played to slip, trying to guide it down to third man. Just seven more to get to that target of 50. Come on guys.

10:30 p.m. Play and miss outside off. One more ball this over. Steady, Kamran. Steady.

10:30 p.m. A sharp rising delivery, but Kamran lets it go.

10:29 p.m. Drifting into Umar's pads. Works the single to midwicket. 57 more. The NZ guys doing everything they can to jinx us, but there's nothing we can do about that.

10:28 p.m. Bond continuing. I say he has three overs, including this one, left in him. That's 17 balls guys. No wickets off those 17.

10:26 p.m. Uff, after setting off for a two, the brothers decide it's only one to fine leg. Nice, clear calling from big brother there. Anyway, we're 193-5. 58 more.

10:25 p.m. Incidentally, we're below that 60 target I laid out: it's now at 59. Alright guys, nine more. Get to 50.

10:23 p.m. Bang. Umar smacks O'Brien right back to him, he tries to catch it, dislocates his finger, and it goes for two down the ground. The physio tries to snap it back in, but it's on his bowling hand. I wonder if he'll continue. Looks like he is.

10:22 p.m. And now a single. Good over, with five singles coming off it. Keeping Bond out is so crucial.

10:21 p.m. Some drama here, as Umar misses a pull down the leg side, and the NZ fielders go up for a caught behind. Doctrove says no, and they mull referring it. Decide against it, and wisely so, because he was nowhere near it.

10:20 p.m. Kamran works it to third man for one. Four singles in this over. Tick, tock. 62 more.

10:19 p.m. Another single to Umar, as he taps it to mid on and sprints down. Great running.

10:18 p.m. A single to deep square. As the commentators mention, Bond is keeping it really full looking for reverse. He's obviously going for wickets, but it does mean it's easier to score. And now another single for Kamran. Steady now. Steady.

10:17 p.m. Bond to continue to Umar.

10:17 p.m. Great cricket. An inswinging yorker from O'Brien, but Kamran digs it out.

10:16 p.m. Another boundary through the cordon, though this time it's deliberate. Smart cricket without a third man there. 66 more.

10:15 p.m. A single to square leg for Umar. Kamran on strike.

10:14 p.m. And now O'Brien beats Umar outside off. Nervous times here, that's for sure.

10:13 p.m. Ah, Kamran, chill. He lofts Bond for four over mid off, but that was really dangerous. It really wasn't drivable length. 71 more. Remember, we need to get to 60.

10:12 p.m. Vettori drops a sweeper back, and Kamran drives him again for two. We've reached that mini target: 75 more. So now let's get it to 60.

10:12 p.m. Well, fourth time's the charm. Kamran finally gets a drive through the covers. Four more. 77 more.

10:11 p.m. Kamran finally connects, but not well, and straight to the fielder. Just survive this guy's spell, kids. You do that, and we have a chance.

10:11 p.m. And again, this time with Kamran trying to be more expansive outside off. Chill, Kamran. Chill.

10:10 p.m. Oyhee. Bond beats Kamran outside off, with one that just holds its line. Great bowling from Bond.

10:08 p.m. Three from the over then. 81 needed. Like I said, get it to 75. We'll take it from there.

10:08 p.m. Slower ball from O'Brien, but Umar just caught himself before launching it. No run.

10:07 p.m. Another confident stroke, but this time it evades mid-off. He gets three for his troubles.

10:05 p.m. Solidly and confidently forward from Kamran. No run though.

10:04 p.m. After a long discussion between McMillan and Richardson on who -- Vettori or Martin -- should bowl from the other end, it is, of course, O'Brien.

10:03 p.m. Kamran gets a single to midwicket, miscuing a drive. Some reverse there for Bond. This could get reaaallll interesting. And that's the over. 84 more. Baby steps guys. Let's get this to 75 required.

10:02 p.m. You've got to love test cricket. You really do. All three results still possible. It all hinges on one partnership. Right here.

10:02 p.m. A yorker is tapped to mid-on for a quick single. My heart is starting to beat a helluva lot faster.

10:02 p.m. Nothing silly now, Umar.

10:00 p.m. Safely driven for no run to mid off.

10:00 p.m. Bond to open the attack. Umar to face. Key battle here.

9:59 p.m. You've got to give Ten Sports credit, with believing the whole "pro wrestling is a 'sport' worth showing to an adult audience on an international sports network" thing. I mean, talk about having the courage of your convictions.

9:39 p.m. On replay, it's clear that Judas could have helped himself in a way that Yousuf couldn't have. Yousuf's was much harder to play, and it was at his throat. With Judas, it was closer to his nose, making it easier to leave. But he tried to rise with it, and then caught half way between prodding it down, and leaving it. Anyway, that's tea then. Under normal circumstances, I would have said the session was evenly shared (more than a hundred runs, two specialist batsmen gone), but because we had such a shit start, you have to give it slightly to NZ. It's now up to the Akmal brothers, in what promises to be an extremely tight finish. See you in 20 minutes.

9:38 p.m. Haha what a shot. Man, Kamran's got balls of steel. First ball is driven through the covers for four. Just get to tea, kids.

9:36 p.m. Gone! A carbon copy of the Yousuf dismissal, but this time it's O'Brien to Judas. A short, rising delivery, gets Judas' glove, and he's gone for 32. As with Yousuf, it was a decent innings but he needed to do more. NZ firmly back in front now, 161-5. Kamran in, to join baby bro.

9:33 p.m. Rubbish from Vettori, bowling short and wide outside off from over the wicket. Since it's a predominantly legside field, you just have to get it past the inner ring for it to be a boundary. And Umar's good enough to do so. 161-4. 90 more.

9:31 p.m. And now a two to midwicket from Judas. 94 more. 10 minutes to tea. If these guys -- touch wood -- can get to tea, it would have been our session.

9:29 p.m. Am I correct when I say Bond has only bowled five overs in this session?

9:28 p.m. Ufff. Heart in throat stuff here. Umar nicks O'Brien, it goes at a catchable height, but there's no one at third slip, going between the slip and the gully. He might be getting a touch tired here, Umar. Mentally more than anything else. He's been out there in the middle for about 75% of this test, methinks.

9:27 p.m. Judas with an emphatic reply, dancing down and smacking Vettori for six over long on. The target is now under a hundred: 97 more.

9:27 p.m. Ooooh. Judas almost chops Vettori on. He really looped that one, Vettori. Great bowling.

9:25 p.m. That's the over, negotiated safely enough. 147-4.

9:23 p.m. 104 more.

9:22 p.m. Well, if there was a "streaky fours through the cordon to third man" event at the Olympics, Judas would win gold easily. There's another. Brings up the 50 partnership.

9:21 p.m. Poor Waqar. He wants to run away from this discussion on Dilmah's mint tea faster than Usain Bolt.

9:20 p.m. Vettori replaces Elliot. Well, here's a sign Vettori is worried: he's now coming over the wicket into the rough against Umar. Anyway, we've moved on to 143-4.

9:19 p.m. Goddamnitt. Streaming issues again. Please stand by.

9:16 p.m. Judas gets another streaky four, through the gully region off O'Brien. Another good over for us, with five coming off it. 141-4. 110 more.

9:14 p.m. Just get to tea, kids. Get to tea, and we'll reassess.

9:12 p.m. O'Brien replaces the hardworking Martin.

9:11 p.m. Four more byes. Don't expect McCullum to be especially nice to Elliot after this match, one way or the other. Shocking delivery down the leg side. 136-4, 115 more.

9:10 p.m. Elliot to continue. Umar gets a single, bringing Judas on to strike. Tick, tock.

9:07 p.m. That's Judas' best shot of the match. Drives a decent ball from Martin ramrod straight, and it goes for four. 131-4. Keep it steady, guys. Keep it steady.

9:07 p.m. Off-topic comment: 300 is the strangest movie of all time when the sound is muted.

9:06 p.m. Judas edges it down to third man, all along the ground. Four more. We'll take 'em any way they come, as they say.

9:04 p.m. Martin continuing. He's bowled a good spell here, Martin. Other than Bond, he's easily been NZ's best bowler in this test.

9:02 p.m. Drama here. Judas gets a single, and next ball is sliding down the leg side. McCullum has trouble gathering it, hurts his finger, and what's more, it goes for four byes. All things considered, that's a good over for us. Six from it. 123-4.

9:01 p.m. Fuck. Judas hits it straight back to Elliot, and a chance goes down. Always difficult in your follow through, but you have to take those (unless you're Pakistani). Wow. What a chance to put the game to bed.

9:00 p.m. Elliot joins a long line of NZ dibbly dobbly medium pacers -- including Lathan, Astle, Larsen and god knows who else. Umar works him for one through the off side.

8:59 a.m. Quiet over from Martin to Judas. Elliot (?) into the attack. Nothing stupid now, Umar.

8:55 p.m. With that last boundary, Malik became the third batsmen in this innings to cross 4. Kudos.

8:53 p.m. Four to Malik with a sweep. "Bit of a mow" says Martin Crowe. 7 from the over though. Vettori -- again, I don't want to jinx anything -- has looked strangely ineffective in this test. His field placings have been very curious, to say the least. But, as an ode to the jinxing gods, let me say he's the best left arm spinner in the world and a truly awesome all-round cricketer. Genius. Best ever. Legend.

8:52 p.m. Umar paddles Vettori for two down to fine leg, and then gets a single to long off. 112-4.

8:50 p.m. Jeez. The best I can say about Judas' batting right now is that somehow, some way, he is still there. But he really is trying to not be.

8:48 p.m. 108-4 by the way. If these guys get to tea, I'll be a touch more relaxed. Of course, asking Judas to last an hour outside Asia is really asking too much.

8:46 p.m. As Umar reaches his fifty, the commentators try their best to jinx him by talking about a hundred in each innings of a debut. Nice going guys. Really transparent.

8:42 p.m. And that's drinks. NZ's hour, simply by virtue of picking up Yousuf. We're scoring a little bit more briskly, but at the rate at which we're losing wickets, it may not matter. 105-4.

8:40 p.m. Ian Smith, please shut up. Almost jinxes Umar. That was Rameez-esque from Smitty.

8:38 p.m. Aha. Umar pushes Martin off the back foot through point for four. What a guy. He's moved on to 48, the only guy other than Yousuf to make more than 4.

8:37 p.m. Steady over from Vettori, bowling a maiden to Judas. We stay at 100-4.

8:34 p.m. Nice shot from Umar, working it off his hips for two. Hundred up.

8:32 p.m. Umar would do well to keep Malik away from the strike against the quick bowling.

8:31 p.m. And another. Three off, and it's 98-4.

8:30 p.m. Anyway, Vettori continuing to Umar and Malik. Couple singles in the over so far.

8:28 p.m. I feel really bad for Umar, who's having to literally carry us in his first bloody test. Normally when young guys break into the team, they're allowed to work themselves into test cricket, and the older guys pick up the slack. Normally.

8:27 p.m. And now cut in half by Martin. I mean, it's good bowling to be sure. But Malik is just nowhere at the moment. Him and Farhat have been completely useless. At least Khurram got a runout, and Fawad made a 30 odd in the first innings.

8:26 p.m. Let Ian Smith tell it: "Looks all at sea, Shoaib Malik." Yup. Don't know what shot he was playing there. Can you play a cut without moving either of your feet to a ball three feet wide of off stump? If yes, that was a cut.

8:25 p.m. 95-4. Come on guys. Steady now.

8:23 p.m. Gone! Martin gets Yousuf with a ripper! HUGE wicket! A short ball at the throat, Yousuf couldn't get out of the way, it touches his glove through to the keeper. What a blow that is, just as the partnership was gathering some momentum. It was worth 71, and Yousuf made 40-odd. Nice little innings, but frankly, we needed more. Judas in.

8:22 p.m. Very nice from Umar, just tapping it to mid on and taking off. Excellent running. More positive now than he was before lunch, that's for sure.

8:22 p.m. Simon Doull on Martin: "He's got to put it in." What?

8:21 p.m. Double change then. Martin replaces O'Brien.

8:21 p.m. 94-3.

8:19 p.m. Well, thank goodness my stream came back before that shot. Umar just smacks Vettori over midwicket for six, down on one knee at all. Next ball is nicely late cut for two. Followed by a single down the ground. Full range of shots displayed here.

8:18 p.m. Ok, it's 85-3. Vettori is into the attack. This stream unreliability issue really needs to fix itself.

8:15 p.m. Arrrghh. My stream is having all sorts of issues now. This is very pissing off. Hold on.

8:13 p.m. Dear Umar Akmal: You are very good. But please put away your pull shot on this pitch. At least while Bond is bowling. Many thanks and best regards, Ahsan.

8:12 p.m. Ok, something clearly happened in that over, because we're suddenly 80-3. Whatever it was, kudos.

8:10 p.m. Stream acting up again. WTF.

8:08 p.m. We can turn my earlier point about offense-defense on its head. I mentioned that if we play too conservatively, we risk giving Vettori the luxury of bringing attacking fielders from every which way. Conversely, if we up the tempo even slightly, it makes our chances of getting at least a draw that much greater. 72-3 then, with both guys looking a touch more settled (touch wood).

8:07 p.m. And next ball tries to slash him behind point. Good fielding. Yousuf tells him to chill.

8:07 p.m. Bang. Umar just picks Bond over his head for four off a full ball. Four more.

8:06 p.m. Martin Crowe makes a good point about treating this chase as a spell-by-spell thing. See off Bond, and see what happens.

8:05 p.m. The thing that's really impressed me about Umar in this innings -- Lord, let this not be a jinx -- is that he has shown he can play a different type of innings. Very heady player. Most young guys can play one way; it takes experience for the versatility to creep into your game. Not with this guy. He's 19 going on 30.

8:02 p.m. This partnership has moved on to 43. Need about a 150 more from these two. Seriously, anything less, and we've lost.

8:01 p.m. 66-3 in 31 overs then.

7:59 p.m. Hold on, my stream just died. Both of em. Gimme a couple.

7:57 p.m. And now one staying low from Bond to Yousuf. Scary times for Pakistan here.

7:57 p.m. Replays showed that just dropped short of third slip. Still dangerous, obviously.

7:56 p.m. Streaky from Umar, as he looks to drive O'Brien through the covers, gets an edge, and it flies through the cordon for four. Third slip got a hand to it. Phew. 63-3.

7:55 p.m. Beauty. Nothing you can do about those. Umar beaten all ends up by one that just leaves him. Well bowled O'Brien. Him and Martin have done much better in this innings than the first.

7:54 p.m. Careful, careful. Don't want a run-out here, kids.

7:53 p.m. Nice shot. Umar works O'Brien through mid-on, without getting all of it. Goes for four, and that's his first boundary.

7:52 p.m. Two off Bond's over. 55-3.

7:51 p.m. First runs after lunch, a single to Yousuf to mid on, and a single to deep cover to Umar.

7:49 p.m. So two maiden to start. I'll say this: if we keep playing at this pace for another half an hour or 45 minutes, we can kiss winning this game goodbye. This is important because the threat of us being able to win is crucial in being able to avoid a loss -- the moment Vettori senses that we can no longer win, he's going to bring in attacking fielders, and make it really hard for us to survive. We need to keep them honest here.

7:48 p.m. Nah nah Umar. Bad shot. Tries to hit one through the off-side when it wasn't there. Nearly gives Waqar a heart attack.

7:47 p.m. An ambitious appeal for LBW, as Umar tries to flick a full one through the leg side, and gets hit on the pad. Sliding down the leg-side, no problems. NZ have started well though after lunch. Nothing loose.

7:46 p.m. Keeps low, but Umar is up to it, keeping his eyes on it till the last moment.

7:45 p.m. Great bowling from Bond, really mixing it up in that over. Maiden over right after lunch then. O'Brien will bowl from the other end, to Umar.

7:43 p.m. Solidly forward from Yousuf. Great contest, this.

7:42 p.m. Uff. A pacy bouncer, aimed at Yousuf's body. He does well to sway out of the way, right after lunch.

7:42 p.m. Safe enough, just hit into the off side.

7:41 p.m. Alright, here we go. Bond to Yousuf.

7:39 p.m. And we're back. Pakistan need 198 in 65 overs. NZ need 7 wickets in 65 overs. Umar and Yousuf at the crease, with a slow-but-steady partnership of 29.

7:03 p.m. Solid enough from Umar. We end up at 53-3, with 198 more needed. NZ's session by far, though Umar and Yousuf look solid. They'll have to build again post-lunch, and frankly, I think they'll be happy with a draw from here. See you in 40 minutes.

7:01 p.m. Umar flicks Vettori for two through midwicket. The field is now up.

7:00 p.m. Solid as a rock from Yousuf. He's really tightened up after that initial flurry. Last over before lunch then.

6:57 p.m. Ooh. Umar drives Martin hard to mid-off, a slight fumble, sets off, and Vettori goes at the stumps. I think he would've been home had it hit, but there's no need for that three minutes before lunch.

6:55 p.m. Dear Mohd Yousuf: Please don't go back to a full ball from Vettori. You will be LBW soon. Thanks and best regards, Ahsan. 50-3 by the way.

6:54 p.m. Three singles off three balls in this over. That's what that field placing will do to you.

6:53 p.m. The NZ commentators are tearing their hair out at the fact that Vettori has five guys on the boundary to both Yousuf and Umar. Again, completely understandable.

6:51 p.m. Beautifully played by Yousuf. There's four guys in the off-side ring, and he gets it through with a languid cover drive off one that wasn't even that full. What a guy. First boundary in a long, long time. 47-3.

6:51 p.m. Umar finally gets to double figures, by working a Martin no-ball behind square for one. Took him about an hour I think.

6:49 p.m. Nice shape for Martin, who's bowled well.

6:47 p.m. Exhale. Yousuf gets beaten by Vettori. The world's best left arm spinner bowling to the world's worst player of left-arm spin is not a battle I'm especially enamored with.

6:46 p.m. Yousuf paddles Vettori for two. The NZ commentators are pissed off that he has both mid on and mid off back. I would be too.

6:44 p.m. Umar looks very solid and compact in defense. It's good to see a young Pakistani batsman just be able to shut up shop for a while. Anyway, Vettori in to the attack.

6:41 p.m. Bond's figures, by the way, are 8-3-11-2. Wonder if he'll come back for a sharp burst just before lunch. Vettori still hasn't bowled by the way; in fact, these two (O'Brien and Martin) have been plugging away for quite a while now.

6:40 p.m. Safe. Gets a single to mid off to finish the over.

6:39 p.m. Uh oh. Change of bat for Umar. Let's hope this isn't Saeed Anwar circa 1999.

6:38 p.m. The first non-defensive shot from Umar in a while, but good fielding in the covers means it's no run. Frustrating.

6:36 p.m. Another maiden. 38-3.

6:35 p.m. I wonder if these guys have given up hope of winning this game, and instead are content on drawing it. I'm just trying to figure out what's going on here.

6:29 p.m. Oooh. O'Brien bowling well, beating Umar outside. I fear we're getting stuck here. I'm not saying try and play aggressively, but these guys aren't even really looking for singles, which is allowing their bowlers to get 5 or 6 balls an over at one guy. A single is both an offensive weapon (it gets you runs) and defensive weapon (makes it harder for the bowler to get a wicket). Amongst Pakistani batsmen of this era, only Younis understand that truth, and he's not here. Miandad was probably the best exponent of that logic in days gone by.

6:25 p.m. Aargh, half volley from Martin to Yousuf is wasted. Dot to mid off. We've crawled to 36-3 in 17 overs.

6:19 p.m. NZ keeping things very tight here. Not only have the boundaries dried up, but singles and twos are also pretty much off the table. A holding period here. Can we get through it?

6:17 p.m. Dangerous, dangerous. Umar looks to drive, and gets it through the gully region. Just a single. 34-3.

6:14 p.m. Someone get Martin Crowe a sock. He's talking about Umar Akmal in gushing tones, and if carries on this way, Waqar is going to need to go the bathroom to clean up.

6:12 p.m. Oooh. O'Brien gets one to stay low at Umar. I tell you what, if we get to 251, it would have been some achievement on this pitch, given how crap our batting is.

6:07 p.m. And now Umar edges Bond, but it falls short. Goddamn, Bond can bowl. He can really, really bowl. Him and Yousuf are tied for the "of all the people who went to the ICL, we deprived the world of international cricket the most by being deemed ineligible to play for our national teams by the draconian BCCI" award. Anyway, it's drinks.

6:07 p.m. Bond zeroing in on Yousuf's pads here, and Yousuf keep trying to work him through the legside. He misses one, and he's a goner.

6:05 p.m. And Umar off the mark, with a push through the covers for one.

6:04 p.m. 28-3. Shambolic batting, really.

6:02 p.m. After a "he really wasn't playing a shot but pretended to, and so isn't LBW" LBW shout, Yousuf flicks O'Brien for four behind square leg.

6:00 p.m. Wicket maiden for Bond. 24-3. And this is before Vettori has had his shot at Yousuf, perhaps the worst player in the world of left arm spin. Good times.

5:58 p.m. The next one goes flying over Umar's shoulder. What a bouncer. Bond cranking it up here.

5:58 p.m. Solidly behind it first up.

5:56 p.m. Gone! Bond cramps Fawad coming over the wicket, gets him jumping, and it loops up to a strangely-positioned guy -- best description is silly-mid wicket. 24-3, and it's yet another Pakistani collapse. Man, we miss Younis. We really, really miss Younis. Anyway, Umar Akmal in.

5:54 p.m. Oooooh. Fawad tries to cut the next one, edges it, but gets to first slip just on the bounce. I have to say, I have abandoned all hope of winning this game. I foresee a 100-all out type innings here.

5:52 p.m. Beats Fawad outside off. Close. Very close. Doesn't need to be playing that, Fawad.

5:50 p.m O'Brien replaces Martin, whose last over went for 14.

5:49 p.m. Ooh. Some pace and bite there. Safe enough though from Yousuf, and we're 23-2.

5:49 p.m. Bond to Yousuf. Key battle here.

5:48 p.m. Fawad works Bond through square for a single. Just keep it ticking, kid.

5:47 p.m. Ooooh. Fawad gets caught there, halfway between a defensive shot and a push. It holds up on the pitch, and so almost carries back to Bond for another caught and bold. Heart stopping moment there.

5:45 p.m. Calm down Yousuf. Martin drops it short, Yousuf uncharacteristically tries to hook it, it gets an edge, and it flies down to fine leg for six. It's runs, but it's risky. He has to bat us until we get to 200 at least. Come on Yousuf. Play an Inzi innings here. Calm and cool and efficient.

5:44 p.m. And now through the covers. Just lent into that. God, I hope he doesn't get carried away here. We need to win this in 75-80 overs, not 60 overs. I hope Yousuf knows that.

5:43 p.m. A figure you might be interested in: the difference between Yousuf's overall average and his second innings average is minus 14. Younis', by the way, is minus 3. Take from that what you will.

5:42 p.m. Aha. Yousuf interrupts the inane banter amongst Ian Smith and Simon Doull with a delightful drive down the ground for four. Just tapped that through the line.

5:38 p.m. The final tally for Farhat: less than 30 runs in two innings, 4 dropped catches, and one wasted referral. Thanks, Mohammad Ilyas! You're the best.

5:37 p.m. Fawad plays Bond through midwicket for two. This is the partnership kids. Unless they put at least a hundred on, we're fucked.

5:35 p.m. Hahaha. Another one. Martin comes round the wicket, Farhat nicks it, it goes to second slip, and another excellent catch in the cordon. That's been the difference: they get edges, and it's a wicket. We get edges, and it really is a lottery. Anyway, when I said I expected 35 runs from the sextet of Khurram, Farhat, Malik, Gullee, Asif, and Ajmal, I might've overshot by about 20. We're 6-2, and in all sorts of trouble. Yousuf in.

5:34 p.m. I hate how everyone -- including Waqar -- is lumping the "top three" together in some sort of shit batting basket. Really Fucking Stupid Imran and Khurram are bad players. Fawad is a good player who got an unplayable delivery -- really the only one in our first innings. There's a distinction there.

5:33 p.m. And off the mark straight away, tucking it behind square for one.

5:32 p.m. Pheewff, I'm still getting over that catch. That was awesome. Anyway, Really Fucking Stupid Imran just got off the mark with a single. Fawad to face up to Martin.

5:29 p.m. Gone! What a catch! Khurram nicks the next one from Bond, it goes really low and really quick to McCullum, who gets it falling to his right. That would have never gotten to slip. Most keepers wouldn't have even sniffed that. Outstanding stuff from NZ, whose fielding and catching has put us to shame in this test. Well, they've got their breakthrough. 4-1, with Fawad in.

5:28 p.m. First runs. Bond gets the outside half of Khurram's bat, who to his credit, played it with soft hands. Goes all along the ground through the cordon for four.

5:27 p.m. God, Khurram looks terrible on the back foot. Ugh.

5:23 p.m. Poor old Waqar really holding up the fort here. The NZ commentators are trying to diagnose what happened in that third innings -- they're blaming poor shot selection and a lack of mental toughness. "Pakistan bowling really fucking well" is, apparently, not a sound enough reason. Until Waqar pointed it out to them, that is. Anyway, another maiden. 0-0 after four.

5:20 p.m. And another maiden. I don't really mind this, to be honest. If we see Bond's first spell off without too much damage, I'll be more confident. The ball's not really moving much from his end. Let's see.

5:16 p.m. Good over, two gone. Still not off the mark, Pakistan.

5:15 p.m. Oooh. Martin gets one to rise, and Really Fucking Stupid Imran had no idea. It could have ballooned anywhere, but it fell safely to the short leg region.

5:13 p.m. Hahahaha. A lazy waft outside off first up. God, he's really fucking stupid.

5:12 p.m. Martin to bowl to Really Fucking Stupid Imran at the other end.

5:12 p.m. Three or fewer I meant.

5:11 p.m. Safe enough, with a bunch of leaves outside off. Here's my prediction for the day: if we restrict Bond to fewer than three wickets, we will win.

5:09 p.m. A bit of awkward backfoot defensive shot first up, followed by a leave outside off for the second. Khurram, it is safe to say, needs to work on his technique. He looks seriously cramped every time he tries to play defensively on the back-foot, and moreover, tends to do so with an angled bat. I really, really hope he's not our opener on the OZ tour.

5:07 p.m. Alright, we're about ready to get underway here. Win or lose, you've got to love our pace bowlers. Nine wickets between them for not many. Anyway, here we go. Khurram and Really Fucking Stupid Imran to open. Bond to start.

5:00 p.m. Gone! Elliot gloves Gullee down the leg side to Akmal, who pouches it safely. So that's it then. A nice quick clean-up job the morning. Pakistan will need 251 runs to win their first test in something like a gazillion years. There's five guys that will be key: Fawad, Yousuf, Umar, Kamran and Aamer. I'm expecting no more than 35 runs between the other six.

4:58 p.m, NZ's lead has crept up to 250, by the way. Important little milestone there.

4:57 p.m. "Just one of those guys that...cannot bat," says McMillan. Gets off the mark though. Damnitt.

4:56 p.m. Alright, here we go. Elliot pushes Gullee into the leg side off his hips, looking for two, but they get only one. Martin to face. "Oh dear," says Craig McMillan.

4:54 p.m. Oh for fuck's sake. Elliot steals a single off the last ball of Asif's over, by just tapping it to mid-on and setting off. Come on guys. Is it really a mystery what he's going to do there? Come up a yard or two.

4:53 p.m. Asif beats Elliot all ends up, with one that jags back. Ridiculous movement.

4:50 p.m. Just reward for Gullee there. He's bowled really well this whole test without too much reward. Anyway, Martin in -- who incidentally who has batted against us six times and has six ducks. He has an overall average of lower than three. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Elliot is going to look to farm the strike here.

4:49 p.m. Confirmation that it's out. Nine down. NZ's lead at 247.

4:47 p.m. Haha, got 'em! Gullee follows three short balls with a full, fast one, and it hits him on the ankle in front of middle. Plumb in front, Taufel gives it, and O'Brien asks for a review, more from desperation than anything else. That's out. It has to be.

4:46 p.m. Gullee smacks O'Brien in the grill with another bouncer. And follows it up with two more. Don't lose the plot here, Gullee. Tailenders look pretty ungainly against short bowling but don't often get out to it. Keep it full, and you'll get him.

4:43 p.m. The important thing in the immediate term is to not get too impatient if we don't get wickets immediately. Just because they're eight down doesn't mean they're going to fold straight away, and expecting so will have damaging consequences. Just keep bowling in the right areas, don't tinker with the field too much, and try to keep the pressure on. Don't panic. I have a feeling I'm going to be repeating the "don't panic" line a few times today.

4:41 p.m. Bloody hell. Now he gets it to jag back in, and O'Brien leaves it, thinking it will leave him. Beautiful bowling.

4:39 p.m. Goddamnitt. Elliot nicks Asif, but it doesn't carry to Kamran. Well, better that than it carrying to Farhat for him to drop it.

4:38 p.m. Anything above 275 and we can forget it. Just letting you know right now.

4:36 p.m. Hahaha. Gullee bowls a short one that passes harmlessly by O'Brien (the tailender), and somebody yells "Ah ah ah ah...PACE boy PACE". Jokers.

4:33 p.m. Well, well, well. What have we here? It appears that this is going to be one of those brilliant fifth days of a test -- where all three results are possible, nobody knows anything, and people's nails are going to be chewed like Wrigleys. What an advertisement for test cricket. The situation, as it stands, is that NZ are 245 ahead with two wickets remaining. Elliot and O'Brien are batting against Asif and Gullee.

Hello and welcome to Rs.5's coverage of the fifth and final day of the first test between Pakistan and New Zealand. As always, all times are local (i.e. Chicago).

I Have Seen The Future, And It Belongs To Umar Akmal

2009-11-26T06:44:00.003Z

Wow. To be honest, I don't even care if we lose this test anymore. When you watch sheer genius at work, nitty-gritty things like "the result of the game" just don't matter.

Let me say this right now: barring injuries or suspensions or discipline issues, Umar Akmal will be commonly referred to as one of the world's three best players in less than three years. He's that good.

Wow.

Reaction To The Scahill Piece On Blackwater Part I: Anonymous Sources And Not Knowing What To Believe

2009-11-25T19:26:00.003Z

I have a few thoughts on Jeremy Scahill's piece on Blackwater's alleged activities in Pakistan. I read the piece extremely closely; I read almost every sentence two or three times to properly internalize the revelations contained therein. Because my thoughts on it are a little disparate, I am going to write separate posts on the three big issues I am concerned with. This post will deal with the very basic issue of the extent to which we should buy Scahill's claims. The other two posts, to be written in the next day or two, will deal with the relevance of the substance of the piece to (a) Pakistani security and politics, and (b) American security and politics. So without further ado...
_______________________________________________________________________________________

Investigative journalism is a messy business, primarily because the things that we care most about knowing -- secrets -- are the things people are least likely to reveal on the record. People have jobs and reputations and, at the extreme, lives to worry about. This is not an earth-shattering insight from me by any stretch; the point is only to establish a baseline from which our analysis can depart. Simply put, we are unlikely to find out anything truly worth knowing without anonymous sources.

On the other hand, anonymous sources can be a massive problem too. There are two basic issues here. First, and more importantly, anonymous sources can use their anonymity strategically. They can use their anonymity to push an agenda, and leave their claims unchallenged. The most pernicious example of this was the pre-Iraq war consensus within the mainstream U.S. media on Iraq holding WMDs being based on anonymous sources from the executive and intelligence communities. If we don't know who is saying what, then we can't critically examine their incentives to lie and misrepresent.

Generally speaking, anonymous sources can plant seeds of "information" that aren't actually true, but nevertheless essentially change the facts on the ground. With that in mind, it really is up to the journalist in question to be properly skeptical of requests for anonymity. If the journalist thinks the source is up to no good, or is simply pushing an agenda, then the source should either be forced to go on the record, or not be quoted at all. Glenn Greenwald, for instance, has always claimed that it is certainly not the case that all information, whether received from anonymous sources or not, is a good thing; frequently, information from anonymous sources can prove deeply damaging.

The second issue is simply a matter of expertise. As a keen observer of Pakistani politics, this one is especially dear to my heart. If I had a nickel for every time I've read some anonymous source say something so immensely stupid and ill-informed about Pakistani society and politics that it defies belief -- I'm talking about matters of fact, not opinion -- then I can safely say I would remove my tip jar and Google ads from this blog.

Given this state of affairs, it behooves us to assume a default position of skepticism with any news story that relies exclusively on anonymous sources. We know that Scahill's story falls under this category: his piece relies on testimony from three unnamed sources -- one in what he calls the "military intelligence apparatus" of the United States, one former executive of Blackwater, and one U.S. military source with "knowledge of" Special Ops. The question then becomes: to what extent should we trust what Scahill is saying?

There are a number of factors that suggest that Scahill is on to something. First, he has written the book on Blackwater. His expertise on this organization in unrivaled. What that means in concrete terms is that he isn't likely to be duped by people with a political axe to grind; put differently, he is more likely to be discerning when it comes to granting anonymity.

Second, the level of detail provided in the piece would take a seriously high level of imagination to conjure up. The sources that Scahill cites go as far to describe the physical nature of the main Blackwater operational facilities in Karachi ("three trailers with various generators, satellite phones and computer systems are used as a makeshift operations center"), the precise ways in which JSOC, Blackwater, the Pakistani military and Kestral Logistics -- apparently the Pakistani equivalent of Blackwater -- cooperate and interact, the people and organizations involved, and other important nitty-gritty details. Now, it is true that the mere provision of details does not connote truth (Colin Powell at the UN, anyone?). But when trying to figure out how much we should trust the Scahill story in totality, this aspect of the piece should count in its favor.

Third, there is no obvious political winner here, either in terms of people or policies. Who or what gains from these revelations? I can think of none. By contrast, when we see a story in the New York Times about the ISI and the military still supporting elements of the Taliban, the result of those claims being taken at face value mean that those who support a greater U.S. footprint in Pakistan, and greater U.S. pressure on Pakistan, get what they want. That does not mean you dismiss those claims out of hand, but it does mean that we should be aware of the political implications of the story being swallowed wholesale, and the fact that there exists a constituency for whom there is a vested interest in anonymously-sourced quotes being taken as truth.

In this case, it is hard to see who or what benefits. The anti-Blackwater crowd? Well, sure, but (a) they could have said any number of other things that would approximate the truth (such as Blackwater's conduct in the theaters of operations that we already know of, such as Iraq) that would prove as damaging to the organization, and (b) if this was simply an anti-Blackwater crusade, Scahill could and would have found more than three sources, most assuredly. Given that this story helps no one and hurts many people and their agendas, I am more inclined to believe it, because no obvious group is pushing hard for strategic leaks.

With all this said, I do have a couple of questions and concerns. First, why could Scahill find only three people to talk about this? It is clear that the number of people who know the details on Blackwater's involvement in Pakistan is, by my interpretation of Scahill's reporting, in the low hundreds. Even if you account for people having serious incentives to not say anything, you'd have to think that one could find more than three people -- three! -- to speak candidly about this issue, especially behind the cloak of anonymity.

Second, there is disagreement amongst Scahill's sources on what exactly Blackwater is doing in Pakistan. According to the military intelligence source, it is only involved in the planning of raids and attacks, not their execution. The former Blackwater executive, by contrast, alleges that Blackwater personnel (along with Kestral personnel) frequently undertake counter-terrorist operations in conjunction with the Frontier Corps. This is a fairly important disagreement, for it speaks to the extent of the sources' knowledge. One of them is clearly wrong here, which begs an obvious question: what else could they be wrong about?

Based on all this, I am inclined to believe the big blocks in Scahill's story with a necessary dose of skepticism with respect to some of the details. This is not to impugn Scahill one bit; by all accounts, he is an excellent and meticulous journalist. But when dealing with matters of such secrecy, we can never be completely sure of what is true and what is not. Ultimately, it is a judgment call from each individual on how much they privilege which aspects of the story. Reasonable people can disagree here. But the bottom line, it seems to me, is pretty clear: that Blackwater's involvement in Pakistan, while perhaps imprecisely laid out in the article, is surely deeper and heavier than has been revealed thus far. Even if we don't know exactly what they're doing, we know with greater confidence that they're doing something -- something neither the Pakistani or U.S. government wants us to know.

In the next couple of days, I will tease out some of the implications of this finding with respect to the two countries involved.

U.S.-Sino Relations In Six Minutes

2009-11-25T09:15:00.001Z

SNL, you beauty.

Sometimes people outside the U.S. have trouble viewing videos from the websites of the original network, so here's the Youtube version of the same:

Who's Dumber? Sarah Palin Or Her Supporters?

2009-11-25T08:49:00.001Z

Yikes.

By the way, I finally finished reading the Scahill piece on Blackwater in Pakistan. I will be posting reactions in the next couple days, so stay tuned.

With Champions League Future In Balance, Barcelona Put On Masterful Performance

2009-11-25T01:03:00.003Z

To put it simply, that was the best Barcelona have played since the Champions League final against Manchester United. Against a strong Inter side -- without Sneijder, to be fair -- Barca bossed the game, and effectively ended it within half an hour. And all this without their two brightest stars, Lionel Messi and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and their first-choice defensive midfielder, Yaya Toure. And to have conjured that performance when a draw or a loss could have seriously left their qualification for the final sixteen in great peril? Nothing like it.

So how did they manage such a comprehensive win against such a strong side under such trying circumstances? Let's count the ways:

1. As always with Barca, the truly special performances are under-girded by the Xavi and Iniesta partnership. The level of understanding and touch between these two is telepathic. You feel like they are the types that will force their kids to hang out and dress the same when they organize day trips to the zoo, they're that close.

The interesting thing is that Iniesta, as the lineup had it, was supposed to be playing right forward, or the Messi role, in Barca's traditional 4-3-3. Only, they didn't actually play that way. In effect, Barca played a 4-4-2, with Iniesta tucking in to midfield, and leaving space on the right for Dani Alves to run into. Poor old Chivu had nothing to do for half the game.

But more to the point, the Iniesta-Xavi midfield was reinstated. Because of injuries to Henry and Ibrahimovic, among others, Iniesta has often played the left forward role this season, which he does adequately but not particularly well (often drifting in, and bunching things up in the final third, when above all else Barca require space to play in). And plus, when Iniesta is taken away from Xavi, the latter looks like someone shot his dog. Seriously, he looks completely lost without his partner in crime. It's quite cute actually. But anyway, the way they controlled the game would have seemed awfully familiar to United fans (and Real fans, and Bayern fans and, well, every other team's fans too).

2. Pedro! What a display. The young forward has really grown into his role this season (think hired assassin, either off the bench or as a replacement for one of the injured starters). He's now scored ten goals in ten games in all competitions. He owned Maicon the whole damn ninety minutes. His pace, movement, skill on the ball, and finishing (getting Barca's second, capping a scything and poetic move that left the commentators breathless) were a joy to watch. He really is the long-term answer to Barca's left-wing issue; I'd much rather see January transfer money being spent on a central midfielder to spell Xavi and Iniesta, particularly since Yaya and Keita will be out for the African Cup of Nations in January.

3. The back four all did their part. Puyol and Pique put out whatever very limited threats Inter engendered in the second half (there were none in the first half, none whatsoever), once again dividing their duties (Puyol doing man-marking and scurrying, Pique taking care of aerial threats and bringing the ball out, and even scoring the first despite having his shirt tugged harder than a fourteen year-old boy tugs...never mind, I'm not finishing that sentence). Abidal had a phenomenal game, after a couple of early jitters for which he could be forgiven (dude just came back from swine flu, for God's sake). And Dani Alves wreaked havoc on the right side, providing the assist for Pedro's goal, and doing a good job defensively too. You can obviously not base too much on one game, but he seriously outplayed Maicon today.

4. And finally, Pep. Anyone else would have panicked. Anyone else, with the dip in form and fitness over the last month, have started acting impulsively (cough *Rafa* cough). Anyone else would have been highly tempted to start at least one of Messi or Ibra, particularly since both were fit enough to be on the bench.

But you, sir, displayed the calm confidence in your team that no one else did. Because you know them, and trust them, and see them every day, you knew the guys you had would do the job.

I bow down to you, sir. May you live a long life and have many children and carry on the Guardiola name.

Honestly, when Barca play the way they did today, few teams can hang with them. Chelsea are probably the only team that can, based on their physical prowess and the organization. I thought Jose would be able to replicate that organization with Inter, but they were ripped apart today, cut like ribbons. They ended up resorting to thuggish fouls (they should have had at least two more yellows shown, and probably a red too), which was a disappointment.

Anyway, Barca are now basically through. The only way they won't get to the last sixteen is if there's a result in the Inter-Rubin game and Dynamo beat them by more than two goals. More likely, however, is the prospect of them not only going through, but also topping the group. This will require either a win in Ukraine, or a draw and the Rubin-Inter game (in Milan) ending in anything other than a Rubin win.

Order, ladies and gents, has been restored. Phew.

Things You Will Never Read On This Blog: Shireen Mazari May Have Been Right About Blackwater In Pakistan

2009-11-24T07:10:00.003Z

Bloody hell. The interwebs have erupted with this story from The Nation (the American one) on the alleged activities of Blackwater in Pakistan. I'm too tired to read it closely right now and wade through the qualifications and sourcing issues, but suffice it to say that (a) Rehman Malik, I predict, will be out of a job in less than four weeks and (b) that there will be some sort of triumphalist statement from the Taliban in the next four days.

Shit, meet fan.

Live Blogging Pakistan Vs New Zealand 1st Test Day 1

2009-11-23T22:59:00.178Z

12:23 a.m. Well the day finishes on a bullshit end. Whatever. NZ finish on 276-6. Honors even I'd say. Our bowlers tried hard all day, and given the circumstances, did well. Let's see what happens tomorrow morning. Thanks for reading. I will NOT be blogging this tomorrow or even the day after, but I will come back for the fourth day possibly. See you then.

12:22 a.m. And he's safe! They say it hit him outside the line. Marginal. Marginal.

12:20 a.m. Drama in the last over here! Simon Taufel gives McCullum out LBW to Asif off the second last ball of the day. McCullum challenges it.

12:18 a.m. Khatmal: no, AKS and NB are still nominally part of the blog. Nominally.

12:17 a.m. So Asif to bowl the last over. Here we go.

12:16 a.m. Sigh. Vettori with four more through the covers. Our bowling with the new ball has been quite uninspired, it must be said. But I can't let that Vettori drop go. Goddamn Really Fucking Stupid Imran. Oh, how I loathe him.

12:14 a.m. God, our readers are an unforgiving bunch. And to answer your questions, yes, I'm fairly satisfied with this. We need one wicket early tomorrow and we're set. Could it have been better? Obviously. But I'll take this.

12:10 a.m. I hope you're happy now, Really Fucking Stupid Imran. I hope you're happy.

12:08 a.m. This partnership is starting to piss me off. Four more for Vettori, even though his drive hit the stumps at the other end. Still hit good enough to go to the boundary.

12:07 a.m. Asif back in to the attack, replacing Aamer.

12:05 a.m. Beautiful. McCullum drives Gull between mid-off and cover, just opening the face at the last nano-second to get it through the gap. Great shot. 261-6, and the pendulum has once again swung NZ's way.

12:04 a.m. Gullee just going through the motions now. I think these guys just want to crawl into bed and go to sleep.

12:01 a.m. Vettori has moved on to 27 in no time. As I said earlier, this has been a key partnership for NZ. They really could've been shot out for 250 for a while there. Anything above 320 or so is really going to push us, I feel.

11:59 p.m. And now a mere nudge/push from Vettori goes for four off Aamer. 257-6. Remember how I said I'd be happy with 270 odd for 6? Well, it looks like the cricketing gods are going to see whether or not I live up to my word.

11:57 p.m. Well, I think it's clear our quicks are done. They've had a long hard day, and it's the first test for us in a while. McCullum gets four more down the ground. I say give Faady and Malik the last few overs of the day to see if they get themselves out.

11:55 p.m. Rubbish. Short and outside off, spanked through the offside for four by McCullum. NZ have had a good little session here in the last half hour.

11:53 p.m. Gullee back into the attack, replacing Asif. Come on Gullee. Just bomb one of these two out. Come on.

11:52 p.m. Alright, Wicky and Crowe. Get a room. Bus, bohat ho gaya hai.

11:49 p.m. It's 244-6, by the way. NZ has gotten back on a firmish footing here.

11:48 p.m. A romantic session of reminiscing between Waqar and Martin Crowe is broken up by Yousuf directly hitting the stumps to a quick single. Not out. Carry on, Wicky and Crowe. I think you were two in the middle of undressing each other.

11:43 p.m. NZ don't look too troubled by this new ball, to be honest. I also think Aamer is tiring just a touch.

11:42 p.m. Uh oh on two counts. One, the umpires are checking their light meters. Two, Aamir is just turning his ankle and stretching. Bhai, please let nothing happen to this kid. He seems ok though.

11:39 p.m. Tch. Short, and Vettori swivels and pulls him for four. Nothing short with the new ball, yaar. Come on.

11:37 p.m. Straight away Asif hits the spot. What a guy. Key passage here. Ten overs. One or two wickets. That's all we need. Come on guys. Let's close today strong.

11:35 p.m. And the new ball is being taken straight away. Asif back into the attack, just four overs after leaving it.

11:33 p.m. Aamer still cranking it up, even though it's late in the day. "Spirited performance" is what Martin Crowe calls it, and he's dead-on.

11:30 p.m. One more over for the new ball. NZ, by the way, are 229-6. They'll be looking to just bat eleven more overs with these two at the crease. They're basically full batsmen at this point, both of them.

11:28 p.m. Rubbish from Ajmal. Short, outside off, four. McCullum's first boundary. Ajmal has bowled a lot of overs today. He has to be tiring. Right?

11:27 p.m. Vettori pulls Aamer through midwicket for four. More a short-arm jab that. Come on, Aamer. Keep the pressure on. Don't let 'em off.

11:24 p.m. Um, ok. Asif is taken off for Aamer. I will now stop issuing unqualified statements. I think.

11:22 p.m. Another really solid over from Ajmal, who's racing through his overs, not allowing them to settle. 219-6. Three overs before the new ball. The way he's bowling, I cannot see Asif being taken off any time soon. So Aamer will probably get it from the other end, if Yousuf chooses to take it straight away that is.

11:20 p.m. Nice shot from Vettori. Again a probing line and length from Asif, but Vettori pushes it through the off side for four. "Hopefully that's the beginning of a long innings from the New Zealand captain," bleats Craig McMillan. These guys don't even pretend to be neutral. Them and the Saffies are the worst in this regard.

11:18 p.m. He really is a joy to watch with the ball in his hand, this guy. He's a purist's bowler.

11:16 p.m. Jaffa. Asif beats Vettori again. Just awe-inspiring control from Asif. You put a coin on the pitch and he'll be able to hit it 9 times out of 10. By the way, he hasn't played a test in two years. What a guy.

11:15 p.m. Oooooh. Ajmal beats McCullum all ends up. That turned and bounced a mile. How it missed off stump and the edge at the same time is beyond me. Anyway, just the one off the over, another tight one from Ajmal.

11:13 p.m. Ahem. NZ are 212-6. Ajmal continuing. Vettori tries to sweep him, it goes straight up, but lands short of deep fine leg. Dangerous that.

11:12 p.m. I have one question: WHY THE FUCK IS IMRAN FUCKING FARHAT AT FIRST FUCKING SLIP WHEN HE'S NEVER FUCKING CAUGHT ANY FUCKING THING IN HIS FUCKING LIFE AT THAT FUCKING POSITION?

11:10 p.m. If you're keeping track, he's now dropped two catches at first slip. Please go back and read my entry at 5:20 p.m. That was before the first drop, mind.

11:09 p.m. Hahahahaha. Really Fucking Stupid Imran drops another! Classic stuff. Asif gets Vettori nicking it first ball, it goes low to Really Fucking Stupid Imran, and it goes straight through his hands. What's more, he tries to tell Asif that it bounced ahead of him, when replays are clear as daylight that it went on the full. Idiot. Lying idiot.

11:07 p.m. Gone! Asif gets another! Just reward for some brilliant bowling, throughout the day. Do I even to describe this? You know it's on a good length, you know it's just outside off, you know it just nibbles a bit off the pitch. Elliot went fishing, and he's gone. NZ in trouble now, 211-6. And give some credit to Yousuf -- he brought Asif in when it wasn't all that obvious that he was the right choice. Kudos. Vettori in.

11:06 p.m. UFONE tum hee to ho! That's some catchy shit dude.

11:06 p.m. Two relatively new batsmen in against Ajmal means there's a crowd around the bat. Slip, silly point, short leg. Just the single off the over.

11:01 p.m. For some bizarre reason, Yousuf only has two slips and a gully for the new batsman. Also, McCullum looks to impose himself on Asif first up, which Asif won't mind at all. He LOVES new batsman taking him on. Anyway, that's the end of the over.

11:01 p.m. McCullum in at 210-5.

11:00 p.m. We've plugged away all day. This has been a really non-Pakistani performance in the field, in that it has been workmanlike and not spectacular, but has gotten the job done (at least so far). Good on us.

10:59 p.m. Gone! Asif gets Fulton, bowled with one that stays low (think Tendulkar at Karachi in 06). Well, that came from nowhere. But Asif is always a threat to get a wicket because he's always bowling wicket to wicket. Timely that, especially with the new ball due in about eight overs.

10:56 p.m. Aside from a rubbish full toss on leg stump, another good over from Ajmal. He had Fulton poking and prodding the whole over. Their run rate, by the way, is less than three (209-4 in 71).

10:53 p.m. Another maiden. Aside from the first 40 minutes after lunch, we have not allowed NZ to get away. That could prove to be crucial -- all you need for a mini-collapse is two wickets. If that happens tomorrow morning, so be it. But at least they won't have a big score if and when that mini-collapse happens.

10:52 p.m. They just showed Asif's pitch map. Ridiculous stuff. It's just one giant blob, back of a length, six inches outside off.

10:50 p.m. No one gets more collective anguished cries of "Oyeeee, yaaarr!" than Asif. No one.

10:47 p.m. Waisay, if you take out Martin Crowe's incredibly high levels of bias, he's a brilliant commentator. He clearly knows the technical aspects of batting very well, and he's a very astute observer of the game.

10:46 p.m. Quiet enough from Asif. 205-4.

10:42 p.m. Asif replacing Gullee. So I guess we have our answer then.

10:41 p.m. Great bowling from Ajmal. I've said it before, but he really is a throwback in that his variations are very subtle and his use of them is very cerebral. On a first day wicket in NZ, you can't ask for too much more from your offie.

10:39 p.m. On the other hand, I agree with what they're saying, in that you don't want easy bowlers bowling first up to a guy who just came in (Elliot). It's a tough one, to be sure.

10:37 p.m. The commentators are pulling for Aamer to be brought into the attack. Well, it's a dicey one, isn't it? With 15 overs left for the new ball...I mean, I'd rather have Asif and Aamer take the new ball. With that in mind, neither of them can possibly bowl before then (or maybe a couple each to warm up). But that leaves too much for Gullee to do from one end, since he's already into his fifth over of this spell, and would need to bowl seven more to get to the new ball. Maybe Malik or Faady for a few?

10:31 p.m Gullee's over ends at 197-4. The game's very much in the balance here. Anything in the 270-6 range at the end of the day, I'll take.

10:29 p.m. That's terrible fielding. Gullee bowled a good, not great, yorker, Elliot squeezed it to mid on and set off, and a clean pick up and throw would've had him struggling. Didn't even gather properly, Malik.

10:27 p.m. Elliot in, and he'll be facing Gullee now after Fulton took a single.

10:26 p.m. And we're back! Apparently Ajmal just got Taylor short of his hundred, which is a bargain I'll take any day. If I have to sacrifice 25 minutes of viewing for the betterment of the country, I'll do it.

10:22 p.m. ...

10:15 p.m. I don't know what's going on. It just isn't loading. Sigh.

10:06 p.m. Sorry guys, my feed is acting weird. Give me a few.

10:04 p.m. Not much swing to start off, but as Waqar says, that may have something to do with the direction of the wind. Very insightful, Waqar is. I mean his English is pitiful (though improving) but at least he says interesting things. And now that Nasim Ashraf is no longer around, can someone explain to me why he isn't our bowling coach again?

10:02 p.m. A single straight away gets Fulton on strike. Come on Gullee.

10:01 p.m. Gullee will begin the evening session, suggesting that our camp expects some reverse here. Come on, Gullee. Come on.

9:59 p.m. And we're back.

9:41 p.m. And a pretty uneventful over, that. NZ go to tea at 171-3, bossing the session (96 runs for just one wicket). I will be back in twenty minutes. See you then.

9:37 p.m. Man, Gullee has been REALLY unlucky today. The figures will tell you that he's been the worst of our bowlers today. Well, this is why I don't trust stats. He's beaten the bat so many times, and gotten so many edges to third man, that it's not funny. Anyway, NZ on to 169-3. Inching ahead, NZ. Last over before tea to be bowled by Aamer.

9:36 p.m. Fulton looks all over the place facing up to our quicks. How he's survived so far is completely beyond me.

9:33 p.m. Give Taylor credit. He's looked scratchy at times, but he's played well, especially after lunch. He's moved on to 70-odd here.

9:30 p.m. Oyyee. Fulton leaves one right outside off. It's one of those "that's either a brilliant leave or an idiotic leave, I have no idea" leaves. He inside edges on to get off strike next ball. Lucky bastard.

9:30 p.m. After a long time, Aamer will get a go at Fulton here. Come on Aamer. Rip him out, right here.

9:28 p.m. After a couple of innocuous deliveries outside off, Gullee bowls an in-swinging yorker. Almost had him.

9:26 p.m. Some shape away here for Gullee. Reverse perhaps?

9:25 p.m. A single, and so we have newbie facing Gullee. Three slips and a gully.

9:23 p.m. And Taylor gets a single off the last ball. Bloody hell, newbie hasn't faced up in about two overs. Ajmal (15 overs for 31) gives way to Gullee. Let's see what happens here, with about fifteen minutes to go before tea.

9:21 p.m. Goddamnitt. Edge, four to third man. Taylor's had about five of those.

9:18 p.m. Ah, come on Ajmal. A half-volley outside off gives Taylor three. That's a bad thing because (a) it's three runs, and (b) it means that he gets the strike to Aamer at the other end if there's a couple dot balls. And there are. Need the newbie facing as much as possible.

9:15 p.m. Just brilliant quick bowling from Aamer here. He has Fulton pinned on the crease here. Anyway, it's the end of the over, and NZ remain on 145-3.

9:14 p.m. Aamer mixing up the bouncers and yorkers to good effect here. What a guy.

9:11 p.m. Ajmal has bowled really well after lunch, for little reward. He's kept it exactly where we need it. I normally prefer leg-spinners to off-spinners in test teams, all else being equal, because they're more likely to get you wickets, but I have to say that I'm thrilled Kaneria is not playing. He would have leaked runs like crazy and put inordinate amounts of pressure on our three quicks. This way, at least Ajmal has one end bottled up. Good on him.

9:09 p.m. Ajmal to the newbie. Let's get another quick one here, kids. Come on.

9:08 p.m. Good three innings from Guptill there. Worked out to about an average of 22 or 23. Well done.

9:08 p.m. Fulton in.

9:06 p.m. Gone! Aamer gets a breakthrough! What a champion. Another quick bouncer, this one to Guptill, he goes for it, it goes straight up, and Fawad takes an excellent catch running back from square leg. No way that would've gone to fine-leg; Faady had to go for it. Brilliant all-round cricket from our youngsters. 144-3, and it's suddenly an even contest against. Aamer, you fucking beauty.

9:05 p.m. Wow, this Taylor chap is a bad player of short bowling. Aamer drops it in short, and he literally turns his back to it, so that it hits the back of the helmet and goes for four leg-byes.

9:03 p.m. After another quietish over from Ajmal, Aamer replaces Asif. Come on, Aamer. Come on. Get us a wicket here.

9:00 p.m. Well, if nothing else, at least we've slowed them down in the last half hour or so. I know, I'm clutching at straws here, but what do you want me to say?

8:56 p.m. 135-2. A wicket or two before tea, thanks.

8:55 p.m. A really tight period of pressure broken by Ajmal drifting down the leg side, and Taylor getting a tickle to fine-leg for four. You'd think fine leg would be finer for an off-spinner, but maybe Yousuf thinks it's Kaneria bowling.

8:53 p.m. Beautiful bowling from Asif. Every single delivery in that over was testing, even for someone past his half-century. Anyway, maiden over.

8:50 p.m. Asif continuing from the other end. He's been keeping it in the channel, but what's the point if the umps aren't giving it when it's out?

8:48 p.m. Well, at least Ajmal is keeping it tight.

8:43 p.m. And that sweet drive from Guptill off Asif brings up the hundred partnership. These commentators and Billy Doctrove's face are now really getting to me. Doctrove, after Darrell Hair, has fucked us more than any other umpire ever. And really, what's the point of this referral system is the final decision is going to rest with the umpire who fucked up in the first place? I'm quite pissed right now.

8:39 p.m. A tight over from Ajmal, but not threatening in the least. Maiden over. Meanwhile, Smith and Crowe are really laying into Yousuf's captaincy here.

8:36 p.m. Man, these commentators -- Crowe and Smith -- are annoying. That was out. You're both stupid. Anyway, after all that, it's 125-2.

8:33 p.m. Some drama here. Asif gets Taylor LBW, but it's not given. Asif and Yousuf ask for it to be referred to the third umpire. It's clearly out. I mean, it's clearly out. It's hit in front, it's hitting the stumps, it's hit pad first, and it's out. The NZ commentators, biased as they are, think it's not out. To that I say: you're both idiots. To be joined by Billy Doctrove in idiotville.

8:28 p.m. My stream is acting funny. Please stand by.

8:24 p.m. Asif replacing Gullee.

8:23 p.m. Tick, tock, tick, tock. This is like the middle overs of an ODI, with us not looking threatening AT ALL, and NZ just getting runs easily without too much bother. To be fair, the ball's not new any longer, and the lush outfield would suggest that we're going to have trouble getting reverse swing, so it will be hard work getting wickets. But all that means is that the earlier drops look even more egregious now.

8:20 p.m. 117-2 then. This is where an Afridi type would work wonders. Think about it: is he really going to score fewer runs than Imran Farhat? And he's definitely going to take more catches. Why the hell not, eh?

8:18 p.m. And now Taylor gets his fifty, working Gullee behind point. Pakistan really leaking runs now. We look positively insipid right now.

8:16 p.m. We suck. We're a terrible team. I hate cricket. I wish I had Australian parents, who gave birth to me in Barcelona but then emigrated to Brazil. I'd never support a crap team again.

8:14 p.m. Rubbish field from Yousuf, just giving NZ a single down to long on.

8:13 p.m. Ajmal to carry on, with NZ suddenly looking very solid at 111-2.

8:12 p.m. Bang! Rubbish from Gullee. Short, wide, four. NZ have scored 36 runs in 32 minutes after lunch.

8:10 p.m. Arrgghh! Gullee switches to over the wicket, gets an edge, but it doesn't carry at all, and goes past third slip for four. Our bowlers have definitely been unlucky today. A couple of edges not carrying or going wide, a couple catches going down.

8:09 p.m. Uhhh, never mind then. Taylor pushes Gullee for four through the covers, nice and crisp. Wasn't even that wide. Nice shot. NZ's hundred up.

8:08 p.m. Taylor is doing all sorts of stupid things against Gullee bowling round the wicket, but without a leg slip and a short leg, it may not matter. Gullee's definitely gotten to him though. No doubt about it, he's in his head.

8:07 p.m. And a maiden from Ajmal.

8:04 p.m. If I ever face a SMS/cell-phone stalker, I know to go to Zong. It's really crazy how three out of every four ads on Pakistan channels are for cellular networks. Anyway, Ajmal to continue.

8:03 p.m. Streaky, streaky. Another quick bouncer from round the wicket, Taylor goes after it, and flies off the edge to fine leg for four. He had no idea about that. Come on, Yousuf. Put in a short leg.

8:02 p.m. Yeah, if there was a short leg, that would've been out. Well done, Yousuf. Well done.

8:01 p.m. Gul's figures are 8.3-7-3-0. Crazy. He's now switching to round the wicket to the right-hander, an interesting move to say the least. I'd like to see a short leg in place, if that's the angle he's going to bowl.

7:58 p.m. And now Guptill gets into the act, driving Ajmal handsomely for four. Reaches his fifty in his third innings today. Kudos. He can send his check to Really Stupid Fucking Imran c/o Mohammad Ilyas, PCB Headquarters, Lahore.

7:57 p.m. Waqar just said we haven't yet seen the doosra from Umar Gul. We probably won't all day, Wicky.

7:55 p.m. Smack. Taylor launches Ajmal over cow-corner for six. Yousuf, being the defensive captain that he is, immediately sends a guy out there. Hey, Yousuf! It's the first day of a test, and they're 85-2. You don't need someone to stop the boundaries of slogs. Idiot.

7:54 p.m. Four leg byes from that Gullee over. I guess technically that counts as another maiden for him. I think he's given one run off the bat the whole day, if I'm not mistaken. His figures must be ridiculous right now.

7:52 p.m. Funny old pitch this, with some zipping through and some staying low and reaching Akmal on the second bounce. That last one hit him square in the mouth.

7:49 p.m. And Ajmal finishes up a maiden of his own. NZ remain on 75-2.

7:48 p.m. Man, if I'm guaranteed that happy a life, I'm definitely getting a Telenor connection. Anyway, Ajmal to continue from the other end.

7:47 p.m. Another maiden from Gullee, keeping it really tight, as he has done the whole day.

7:44 p.m. Oooh, Guptill goes fishing there. Man, it'd be nice to get a quick wicket here, straight after lunch. Come on guys.

7:43 p.m. Gullee to start the afternoon session, bowling to Guptill.

7:42 p.m. And we're back.

7:02 p.m. And that's lunch. NZ end up at 75-2 in 28 overs. The first hour was ours, the second hour was theirs. On this pitch, and given our batting, I think honors are even at this point -- 300 is probably a par score given the strength of the teams, and they look good for that at this point. I will see you in about 40 minutes.

7:01 p.m. For some bizarre reason, Yousuf has three fielders on the legside boundary in the over before lunch. As McMillan says, "as a batter, you love that". They're just working Ajmal so easily.

6:57 p.m. Goddamnitt. Another four for Taylor, slashing Asif behind point. I'm pissed off now. They should have been 55-3 at lunch, they're going to end up 80-2.

6:55 p.m. Ajmal finishes another over, without looking really threatening. These two have basically settled now. We were all over them until about 20 minutes after the drinks break. God, those two dropped catches hurt.

6:52 p.m. Rubbish from Asif. Short, but not quick, it got to Guptill's waist, and he smacked it to midwicket for four. All things considered, Asif has probably been the weakest of our seam up bowlers this morning. He's bowled really well for the most part, but the other two have bowled better. 67-2.

6:50 p.m. Leo's about to have his brains plastered on the wall of the elevator.

6:48 p.m. A tight maiden to start. Nice start, Ajmal.

6:46 p.m. The downside, as always, of a spinner coming on: having to hear Kamran's inane chatter.

6:45 p.m. And there you go. Ajmal into the attack.

6:44 p.m. You're right, McMillan, where's Ajmal? I'd like to see get a couple overs here. NZ, by the way, have moved on to 62-2.

6:41 p.m. Taylor finally gets some room, and slashes Asif behind point for four. He's not getting another wide one, that I can promise you.

6:40 p.m. Asif replacing the economical Gullee.

6:40 p.m. UFone! Tum hee to ho!

6:38 p.m. Taylor, by the way, hasn't done shit. As Ian Smith says, he's made six runs in over 70 minutes. Guptill's doing his bit, though, driving Aamer for four through the offside twice in this over. He has 40 out of NZ's total of 56.

6:35 p.m. Gullee continues to keep it tight. NZ move on 48-2 in 21 overs. The strike rate for this partnership is less than 25.

6:33 p.m. I just...I don't know what to say about our fielding. I mean, is there anything to say that hasn't been said? Let's just move on. LBWs and bowleds, people. Come on.

6:30 p.m. Hahahahahahahahaha. Another dropped catch. It's Guptill again, but for a change, Gullee drops one. Guptill hooked Aamer, who surprised him with a bouncer, it flew to fine leg, and it went straight through Gullee's hands for six. Well, there you go. This is now Guptill's third innings.

6:28 p.m. For the record, Matt Damon is about to end Jack Nicholson.

6:26 p.m. Things really quietening down here. Gullee has given one run in five overs, and NZ have scored four runs in five overs since the break. Guptill probably looks the more solid of the batsmen, but remember, he was the one that was dropped, so it's probably even between the two.

6:23 p.m. Hahah this is how you know you're in NZ. You know how when a batsman drives/pushes a bowler back, and it goes straight to the bowler, and he tries to do the whole "intimidation/throwing it back at the batsman/give him the stare" thing? And you know how the crowd ALWAYS goes "oooooohhh"? Well, all that just happened, except the crowd didn't react one bit. I think they're asleep, dreaming about sheep.

6:19 p.m. As soon as I say that, Taylor drives Aamer down the ground for four. That's ok. A hint of movement either way, and he'd be gone playing that shot (in and he's LBW, out and he's caught behind...as long as it doesn't go to Really Fucking Stupid Imran).

6:18 p.m. NZ haven't scored a run since drinks. Just great tight bowling here. I wish our fielders actually backed them up. Sigh.

6:16 p.m. Give our bowlers credit. They could have easily gotten too excited from the conditions. Instead, they have stuck to the basics and just bowled it there and thereabouts. Gullee, especially, is liable to go a little crazy on pitches like this, but for the most part, he's done his job.

6:13 p.m. I'm still thinking about that dropped catch. They have Fulton (?!), Elliot and McCullum to come. 37-3 before lunch? Can you imagine? With Aamer, Gullee and Asif with their tails up? Fuck me.

6:11 p.m. For the record, the batsman dropped was Guptill on 26. I still don't believe that happened. That went straight to him, at a comfortable height, around his shoulders. Just unbelievable. God, I hate Farhat so much.

6:08 p.m. Dropped! I fucking knew it. Really Fucking Stupid Imran drops an absolute sitter. Gullee banged it in outside off, gets an edge from a hanging bat, and Really Fucking Stupid Imran does what he does best -- look really fucking stupid. WHO said this guy could field at first slip? Man, I miss Younis. Can you imagine 37-3? Ugh. Fuck Farhat, and fuck Mohammad Ilyas.

6:07 p.m. Gullee continuing, and keeping it tight. To be fair, both Taylor and Ross have looked pretty solid. I mean, they've obviously played and missed -- that's going to happen on this pitch against this attack -- but overall, they've looked good.

6:03 p.m. It's such a luxury, isn't it, having a guy bowl the new ball KNOWING that he's not going to give anything away? That the batsmen will have to work for every single run? Oh, Asif. You hurt me, but I still love you. Anyway, it's drinks. NZ 37-2. I

5:58 p.m. Uh oh. Martin Sheen is about to be thrown off the top of a building.

5:54 p.m. Shot. After a seriously testing over, Guptill drives Asif down the ground for four. Shot of the day so far. 36-2 after 12.

5:51 p.m. Oye! Asif first in, and then out. (No dirty jokes please). These guys have no idea. None whatsoever.

5:48 p.m. Gullee not getting too much swing or anything, relying more on hitting the deck. A nice little clip there from before the start of play, as Umar Akmal was given his test cap in a nice little ceremony. Let's hope he doesn't grow up to be as dickish as his older brother.

5:46 p.m. Gullee replaces Aamer. Starts with a bouncer first up.

5:45 p.m. I should probably tell you the score. It's 31-2. NZ have slowed to a crawl here, after that flurry to start.

5:44 p.m. Asif has a pitiful record of 52 wickets. Shameful. If he hadn't done all his charsee-ness, and if we actually played test cricket like a normal team, he'd have gotten 200 wickets by now. No question in my mind.

5:41 p.m. Hawk-eye says it was going over. Ok, fine. I retract my last entry. But I really don't think our team even knows the referral system has gone into effect. Remember, we're still the same team that, on our last tour to NZ, didn't know that we could take the extra half hour on the fourth day in a chase. The problem? Rain was forecast for the entire fifth day. That we eventually got there was no excuse. Indeed, I distinctly recall Inzi saying he didn't know the rules on taking extra time. Pakistan: we're talented idiots.

5:39 p.m. Referral! Referral! What the fuck? Ross Taylor leaves a ball, and Aamer hits him PLUMB in front. Billy Doctrove says no, but you have to refer that shit. Come on Yousuf.

5:37 p.m. Oye Khatmal, go to sleep.

5:35 p.m. Asif, too, has settled into a rhythm here. I think NZ will be very happy if they get to lunch just two or three down.

5:32 p.m. I've got The Departed on the TV in the background. I've never quite figured out who gives the best performance in that film: Leo, Damon, Wahlberg or Baldwin. I lean towards Leo and Wahlberg but I can't decide between those two.

5:32 p.m. Aamer making NZ look mighty silly here.

5:30 p.m. Honestly, this start doesn't surprise me one bit. Our bowling is frigging awesome. I mean, what else is there to say? You've got Aamer from one end, bowling above 140km/h, swinging it both ways with bounce. And at the other, we've got a guy who could've been this half-decade's best seam bowler if it weren't for his, uh, indiscretions. Gullie for once will be freed from the "I have to carry a test bowling line up with a new ball" role that he is uncomfortable in, and Ajmal will give his old-school off-spin. No weaknesses.

5:28 p.m. Yousuf doing his best Steve Waugh impression here, giving the new batsman Ross Taylor four slips and a gully. Anyway, that's the end of the over, and NZ stay at 27-2.

5:27 p.m. Badal do zamaana!

5:24 p.m. Gone! After a close LBW shout (it probably pitched outside leg), Asif just gets one to nibble in, and Flynn gets an inside edge to Akmal. He goes for 8, and NZ are 27-2. What a guy Asif is.

5:22 p.m. Arrrggh. Aamer spoils a good over by drifting down and gifting Flynn four to fine leg. We're bowling Sami overs here (5 good/great balls, and one shite). That needs to change. 26-1.

5:20 p.m. Really Fucking Stupid Imran is at first slip. I never thought I'd say this, but: I really hope an edge goes to Kamran Akmal.

5:18 p.m. After beating Guptill all ends up, Asif gets him to nick it down to third man for four more. NZ haven't scored a single run in front of square, I don't think. Or maybe they have a couple singles. But they don't look convincing, that's for sure. 22-1 after four.

5:14 p.m. Oyyyeeee. Asif gets Guptill's edge, but it doesn't carry. Our bowling is excellent. The question, as always, will be: can our batting hold up? Read Kamran Abbasi's latest column, and he says no. I'm not that pessimistic actually. I think both Fawad and Umar can really play. Yousuf will respond will to being captain. If Khurram can hold up one end at the top, I think we'll be ok. I'm obviously completely discounting Judas and Really Fucking Stupid Imran's ability to do anything.

5:13 p.m. Aamer keeping it nice and full here. He'll go for runs -- as he just did, being squeezed through the cordon for four -- but on the whole, I'd much rather have him err on the fuller side.

5:10 p.m. The great thing about test cricket is that I don't feel like I have to write constant updates. I can drift in and out, and make random observations about cricket in general. I love test cricket man. I'm not ashamed to say it.

5:09 p.m. Make that 12-1, with Asif drifting down the legside and Guptill flicking him for four.

5:09 p.m. And we're back, with NZ 8-1.

5:05 p.m. Asif to open the attack from the other end. If you were going to pick one country for Asif to bowl in, it's New Zealand, what with his teasing line and length and swing. Anyway, I'm having some problems with my feed so give me a few.

5:04 p.m. After going for a boundary, Aamer beats Flynn all ends up. Pace, swing, bounce here. "What an opening over this has been," says Craig McMillan. Indeed, 4-1 after one over.

5:02 p.m. Daniel Flynn in. And he gets a swinging full ball first up too. What a start. I'm giddy. What a prospect this kid is.

5:00 p.m. We have no time for polite intros here! Aamer knocks over some dude called McIntosh with an inswinging yorker first up! What a start! So after Wasim, Waqar, Aaqib, Shoaib, Zahid, and even fucking Sami, yet another young Pakistani quick looks to wreak havoc against New Zealand.

Hello and welcome to Rs.5's coverage of the first day's play of the first test between Pakistan and New Zealand. As always, all times are local (i.e. Chicago).

Eric Cartman And Ethnic Conflict

2009-11-23T19:16:00.003Z

Here's Cartman doing some scary math:

Much of my research for my dissertation actually concerns this very phenomenon -- though I seriously doubt I will be citing Cartman any time soon. The basic point is that you often see widespread violence and conflict initiated by the majority in states. At the surface, this seems strange. Why, after all, is the majority scared? They're the majority!

It turns out that when ethnic groups demand independence and a state of their own, governments get very antsy about the future. They start imagining what the world will look like when that minority wins that state, sitting on its border. And they get scared. Why? Because winning a state is a force multiplier. And one of the reasons it's a force multiplier is that it allows for co-ethnic diasporas to immigrate to the new "homeland", thereby giving the ethnic group a much wider demographic base for military and economic affairs.

Given this state of affairs, it's much better, from the central government's perspective, to keep that minority down within the existing borders than allow it to escape and threaten it from without. Numbers matter. They really, really matter.

If you prefer, I'll let Enver Pasha -- a senior military leader in the Ottoman Empire, and an important figure in the Young Turks movement -- tell it. Here he is talking about why the Ottomans should not let the Armenians form a state of their own (you may recall that the Ottomans ended up committing genocide against their Armenian population):

In my opinion this is a very big mistake. If today in the Caucasus a small Armenia possessing a population of five to six hundred thousand and sufficient territory is formed, in the future this government, together with the Armenians that will come mainly from America and from elsewhere, will have a population of millions. And in the east we will have another Bulgaria and it will be a worse enemy than Russia because all the Armenians’ interests and ambitions are in our country. Consequently, in order to remove this danger, the formation of even the smallest Armenian government must be prevented.

Highway To The...Danger Zone

2009-11-23T09:08:00.002Z

Yeah, Gilani. Yeah.

So if he's Maverick, I guess we know who's Goose. But does that make Nawaz Sharif Iceman?

Programming Note

2009-11-23T06:19:00.003Z

I've had a really crazy three or four weeks, so I'm going to make up for it by watching a lot of sports this week. With that in mind, I will definitely be liveblogging the first day of the first test between Pakistan and New Zealand starting tomorrow. I know it's going to be really early for many of our readers in Pakistan, but if you're (a) a stoner (and many of our readers are, I know it's true), (b) getting an early start on Eid holidays by taking the next ten days off, or (c) a really, really avid cricket fan, then please tune in.

For those in the West, especially in the U.S., you have no excuse. The action starts at 6 p.m. Eastern.

The Best Of Intentions

2009-11-23T04:40:00.002Z

Here's proof that you should never try to do charitable work when you're drunk:

Drunk and eager to do some charity, New Zealand cricketers Neil Broom and Aaron Redmond ended up causing a “riot” during a tour of India with their ‘A’ team in August for which they were even detained by the Chennai police.
According to media reports here, Broom and Redmond, who were in Chennai with the Kiwi ‘A’ side for the Buchi Babu tournament at that time, broke the team curfew and went out for a drink ahead of a match.
After that, the duo took out some money from an ATM and started distributing it among passersby but the crowd grew bigger then what they had expected and a “full-scale riot broke out”, needing police intervention, newspapers reported here.
The duo was then taken to the local police station and after some questioning by the officers to ascertain their identity; Broom and Redmond were sent back to the hotel.

Good times.

Barcelona In A Bind

2009-11-22T02:12:00.003Z

This is absolutely insane. Barcelona are unbeaten in eleven games in La Liga this season. In the Champions League, they have lost once. And yet, their season is at a massive turning point this week. Today's 1-1 draw at San Mames against Atheltic didn't help. After going up a goal thanks to another thread-the-needle pass from Xavi to Dan Alves, they stupidly allowed Athletic to draw level. How? Well, Dani Alves felt the need to fake an injury, went off to "get treatment" and while this was going on, space opened up at...you guessed it...right back, and that was that. Ugh.

Anyway, why is this week so huge? On Tuesday, Barcelona play host to Inter Milan. The list of players who are, in all likelihood, missing the game due to injury and/or swine flu is immense: Messi, Ibra, Yaya Toure, Abidal, and Marquez. Following the midweek game is the small matter of playing host to Real Madrid, who are suddenly top of the table in La Liga.

If you haven't been following this group of death, it's actually a little bit insane. Each of the teams -- Barca, Inter, Rubin and Dynamo -- won their domestic leagues last year. Furthermore, as things stand, every possible combination of teams can go through. Can you imagine both Barca and Inter being dumped out of the Champions League before the knockout stage?

Anyway, for Barca, the equation is simple. Four points gets us through (after hosting Inter, the last game is in tropical Ukraine...in mid-December).

Three points, and it starts getting really complicated. If the three points come against Inter, then Barca are basically through -- the only way they will be knocked out after beating Inter is if (a) they lose to Dynamo away in their last game, (b) Rubin beat Dynamo this week, and (c) Inter beat Rubin in the last game. If, on the other hand, the three points come from Dynamo in the last game (i.e. if Barca lose to Inter this week), then they need Rubin to get no more than two points from their last two games. I know, my head is spinning too.

Technically, Barca could get through with just two draws too -- but the permutations required for that are so complicated I don't even want to get into it. Suffice it to say, I'm hoping for a win this week against Inter. But with the injured/illness list, it will be incredibly challenging. The one saving grace is that, by some reports, Sneijder is also hurt for Inter, and he's been their best player this season. So...crossed fingers.

I don't even want to think about Real next weekend. First things first. But what a week this is. Conceivably, Barca could be knocked out of the Champions League by Wednesday (if they lose to Inter and Rubin beat Dynamo), and be four points behind Real by next weekend. Yikes.

"A Little Bit Hollow"

2009-11-21T00:09:00.002Z

Al-Jazeera English on the government's claims of success in the war against the Taliban:

My Nine Favorite Google Search Suggestions

2009-11-20T23:06:00.010Z

Whenever I'm bored and have five minutes to kill, I always have great fun typing in regular words in the search box on Google and seeing what Google thinks I should be searching for. Hereunder are nine winners spread over two days of searching; readers with funny suggestions of their own should let us know in the comments section.

I love the first four for this one.

This one is so revealing. It appears guys are most concerned with girls as sexual beings while girls are most concerned with guys as companions. Is there any other interpretation for this one?

This one is so random.

The last two here made no sense until I actually googled them. Which is ironic in a way, if you think about it.

If ever there was an accurate summation of where our poor country is right now, this image would be it.

Notice how, other than the "cricinfo" suggestion, there is nothing below that implies Shoaib Akhtar ever played cricket.

These two next are brilliant. Please note the differences between "yo mama" and "your mother".

And finally, our very own Bilawal Bhutto (Zardari). Picture, thousand words etc etc.