Lowetide

Pubitis Thing Update?

2009-11-24T06:40:00.001-07:00

In mid-October we were told Marc Pouliot had "lingering pubitis" and really haven't heard much since. I understand the need for privacy, after all this isn't a groin injury. However, we're about 6 weeks into the deal and it was estimated to be an 8-to-10 week injury.

So, any updates? Have you heard anything? The last words we heard from Pat Quinn about MP had to do with the organization's belief in him:

"He got hurt early in camp so we didn't see him a lot. But our management likes him. They had him in their mind as part of our roster moving forward so that did create some numbers problems."

With Gilbert Brule scoring enough to stay in the lineup it would seem his job is safe. But what about Reddox? Potulny? Pouliot probably has a spot on this roster after a rehab but this fall would have to be considered an opportunity missed. Again.

Coyotes at Oilers, G24, 09-10

2009-11-23T06:45:00.000-07:00

The Phoenix Coyotes (13-9-1) come into Rexall with some traction (5 points in the last 3 games and a win over the Flyers). The Oilers (9-11-3) should be better tonight after losing to Chicago on HNIC on Saturday night. The Coyotes traditionally do poorly at Rexall and the Oilers are awful on pay-per-view so we'll call it a wash.

Phoenix is rumored to be shopping struggling C Peter Mueller but the Oilers have lots of young centermen who are having a hard time of it so that doesn't seem like a match. Coyotes are apparently looking for scoring and help along the blue and based on their start this might be a season to offload youth to acquire some experience for a playoff run.

Not much to say about the Oilers. They are a team in need of a winning streak and they appear to have exactly three forwards they can count on offensively. Pat Quinn had a 9AM meeting Sunday morning with the key veterans, if they lose tonight maybe he'll make it 6AM for the Tuesday get together.

Dubnyk gets the Call

2009-11-22T17:00:00.000-07:00

News this afternoon that the Edmonton Oilers have recalled Devan Dubnyk from Springfield (AHL). Dubnyk is having a solid year in the minors (SP .924) and there's a chance he'll see some action because of Nikolai Khabibulin's injury and Jeff Deslauriers recent lack of effectiveness.

If he does play, Dubnyk will be the 4th Oiler pick from 2004 to play in the show. He'll join Liam Reddox, Rob Schremp and Bryan Young as picks from that year to play in the NHL. There are 3 first round picks from that season who have yet to make it: AJ Thelen (12th to MIN) who is in the ECHL at this time, Andy Rogers who is a depth player in the AHL and Dubnyk.

No word yet about what Springfield will do to replace Dubnyk on their roster. They play Wednesday and then three games on the weekend so there's a chance the club will need someone to spell the Falcons other goalie Aaron Sorochan.

Matzah Ball

2009-11-22T09:55:00.002-07:00

In the rather short history of the Edmonton Oilers, nothing can compare to the current state of the team. Sure there were times when things looked hopeless, but the General Manager (this would be Glen Sather, early 90s) took out the trash and brought in fresh troops (this would be the "Oilers acquire someone named Doug Weight" era).

There was promise throughout the land and the peasants were happy and felt blessed. Fast forward to the current situation: a cap team with an owner willing to spend but a distinct lack of actual people who can help this thing get rolling.

The strange thing is that it is all around Steve Tambellini. He has enough good players on the roster to build a reasonable argument for the post-season and he does have a point when saying the injuries haven't allowed the team to show its real nature.

Doesn't matter. Unless the Edmonton Oilers are run by fools then the General Manager needs to get this thing headed in the right direction or lose his job. Over the last several months, Kevin Lowe has been bumped upstairs and Craig MacTavish has been sent away. The new hires (Tambellini and Quinn) have been charged with getting this team into the postseason and folks it is slipping away.

I believe Steve Tambellini's inertia this summer will cost him his job. His inability to add enough qualified people in roles that are clearly in need will mean the end of him as the Oilers GM. His pursuit of Dany Heatley (after the Khabibulin signing) flushed all other priorities (and they were obvious) and we are now left with another season of wasting veteran seasons while watching the kids learn on the job.

Is it Tambellini's fault that the Oilers decided to play this many kids way too soon? No sir. Is it Steve Tambellini's fault that all of Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson and others have not made that next step? Is it his fault that injuries (oh my God there have been injuries) have crushed what little depth this roster had?

Nope. And it doesn't matter. Steve Tambellini's job is to get this team into the second season and so far it has been both a failure and a walking advertisement as to what is needed to make this team go well. A veteran, right handed center who can win faceoffs, help on the penalty kill and score enough to warrant flushing one of the kids to wing or out of the organization. A left winger with grit and skill who can play on that 2line with O'Sullivan and either Gagner or Cogliano and depending on the Bulin Wall's injury a veteran goalie to settle things down.

The only surprise for me in all of this (I suggested this team would finish 11th in the west) is the complete lack of movement by Steve Tambellini. I understand the need to say things like "let's see what happens when everyone is healthy" publicly but there is no RH C on the IR and there is no gritty LW for the 2line hoping to get healthy.

Steve Tambellini: you need to save your job by taking action. Today would be nice. Right now, your career as Oilers GM can be accurately described as extra-bland Matzah ball.

Blackhawks at Oilers, G23, 09-10

2009-11-21T06:00:00.002-07:00

This is Gilles Marotte. He was part of the famous "Esposito, Hodge, Stanfield to Boston" trade in 1967, a deal that changed the fortunes of the spoked B forever.

There are two things of note about Marotte: The Bruins traded him despite the fact that he'd had success paired with Bobby Orr. Harry Sinden felt that (despite being a punishing hitter) Marotte didn't have the aptitude to play the defensive game and he also grew tired of hits that took the young blue out of position. His assessment proved true, as Marotte became a journeyman player while minor leaguer Dallas Smith capably filled in on the Orr pairing.

I posted this card because it points out a piece of Blackhawk trivia even old-timey fans may not know: the team name changed years ago.

If you read old articles right through the 70s, the "Chicago Black Hawks" is clearly the name of the team. The original nickname came from the team's first owner, a World War 1 veteran who fought in the 333rd or "Blackhawk" machine gun Battalion of the 86th Infantry division during the "war to end all wars."

They were named after Chief Black Hawk, who was a prominent individual in Illinois state history. The team's name was often spelled both ways, but in my childhood the spelling on the card above was the most prevalent and certainly history books have the "Chicago Black Hawks" winning the Stanley in 1961. My guess is the name changed in the 1980's.
--

I'm getting the feeling that what we are seeing this season is a year long evaluation by the current coaching staff. Yesterday's news cycle surrounded comments from Tom Renney (on-ice) and Pat Quinn (off-ice) about Ales Hemsky's practice habits. This is the sort of thing that sometimes happens with losing teams, with the coaching staff attempting to change culture. Will it work? Hell if I know. I don't recall ever reading anything about Hemsky's leadership abilities and can give you a long list of great players with simply awful practice habits but it is also true that some of the game's greatest coaches were absolute grumps when a practice wasn't going well.

I believe Pat Quinn will be the General Manager of the Edmonton Oilers in due time. I believe that this season will end badly for Steve Tambellini. I believe Kevin Lowe is still in charge and I believe Daryl Katz is a long way from being the kind of owner he'd like to be and we pray for every night. Which is fine, but instead of being frustrated about missing the playoffs in 2007, 2008 and 2009 and 2010 I think it might be more beneficial to talk about "the kids" and "development."

This edition of the Edmonton Oilers remains more about development than winning. We'll know things have changed when the massive weaknesses of this roster (one of which Pat Quinn pointed out wonderfully in his defense of Tom Gilbert--the centers not named Horcoff don't know what the hell they're doing) are addressed with veteran replacements.

We wait.

Mark Pysyk

2009-11-20T18:30:00.002-07:00

In 1972 the Chicago Blackhawks drafted defender Phil Russell in the first round from the Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL). These many years later, another Oil King blueliner might make the first round in 2010.

Mark Pysyk (19gp, 3-11-14 +5) is a 6.01, 175 RH defender who has some things to recommend him. Redline liked him enough to have him #28 and ISS has him #11 currently.

Brad Hornung (Hornung on Hockey to the right on the blogroll) is a scout with an eye for talent and had this to say about Pysyk last season: "At his age, he displays an excellent overall understanding of his position. As a defenseman, he doesn't get caught out of position and plays a sound, disciplined game. He handles the puck with composure, and usually makes the best choice when moving the puck."

Mr Hornung will likely update Pysyk sometime this season and he's a player to watch despite an early season concussion. Among the things that make him an attractive prospect are skating ability, his puck handling and passing, and the fact he can play the position. A nice range of skills. He is currently ranked #2 among WHL skaters by Central Scouting for the 2010 draft. He has been compared in style to both Rod Langway and Brooks Orpik.

Oilers 10-11

2009-11-20T06:40:00.001-07:00

Among the things that we can call background noise is the story connecting Jaromir Jagr to the Edmonton Oilers. Recent comments from associate coach Tom Renney saying he's keeping in touch and that Jagr has more NHL seasons ahead of him make the story worth following over the winter and into spring.

Can the Oilers afford Jagr? Would he cost north of 4M? If they add Jagr, do they need to drop a defenseman making 4M or more? Here's a quick early look at the caphit for 2010-11:

Shawn Horcoff 5.5M
Dustin Penner 4.25M
Ales Hemsky 4.1M
Patrick O'Sullivan 2.925M
Robert Nilsson 2.0M
Ethan Moreau 2.0M
Zack Stortini .700M
Lubomir Visnovsky 5.6M
Sheldon Souray 5.4M
Tom Gilbert 4.0M
Steve Staios 2.7M
Ladislav Smid 1.3M
Taylor Chorney .942M
Nikolai Khabibulin 3.75M

Total dollars for 14 players is $45,167,000. Assuming the cap is $57 million for 2010-11 that gives the team $12M to sign Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Denis Grebeshkov, Gilbert Brule, Marc Pouliot, Ryan Stone, Liam Reddox, JF Jacques and Jeff Deslauriers (all rfa's).

How much would be left for Jagr? Not close to enough, I'd expect. Steve Tambellini has to make a trade before June 30, 2010. Book it. :-)

Exploring the Gagner Comps

2009-11-19T18:40:00.004-07:00

That's Al MacInnis cross checking Doug Gilmour in the 1981 Memorial Cup in Windsor. We've talked a lot about "comparables" over the years and I think it's a reasonable way to project current young players into the future. The idea being we collect players from the same or similar leagues who possess the same skill set and have about the same junior numbers.

Then we compare them once they turn pro and hopefully get an indicator as to their progress. By nature, we'll probably aim too high (who wants to track Jason Bonsignore's career again? It was painful enough the first time) but then again sometimes these kids surprise us. Recent examples would be Brad Winchester and Liam Reddox.

Regarding Sam Gagner, we've agreed that Doug Gilmour and Vincent Damphousse are hopeful comparables and this season we can measure them at the same age and level: 20, in the NHL.

The Boxcars

(.663) Doug Gilmour 80gp, 25-28-53 +6 on a +1 team
(.640) Vince Damphousse 75gp, 12-36-48 +2 on a -36 team
(.619) Sam Gagner 21gp, 5-8-13 -2 on a -5 team

Gilmour's team averaged 3.66 goals per game, Damphousse played on a club that averaged 3.41 per game and Gagner's team has averaged 3 per game but it is early. I don't know that there's a whole lot to be learned yet except the fact that our man is "in the range" offensively and likely not comparable in terms of plus minus (certainly to Damphousse) at this time.

Springfield EV Scoring

2009-11-18T22:00:00.002-07:00

This is Chad Wiseman. Don't know him from Adam, but he is in fact the leader in EV points-per-game for the Springfield Falcons so far this season. One of the main features of the Falcons in 09-10 is the number of AHL veterans and that is most definitely reflected in the numbers below. Wiseman, Charles Linglet, Chris Minard and Colton Fretter aren't household names to Oiler fans but they're a big part of Springfield's early season success.

Chad Wiseman (.786) 14gp, 5-6-11
Charles Linglet (.777) 18gp, 5-9-14
Colton Frett (.647) 17gp, 2-9-11
Chris Minard (.636) 11gp, 4-3-7
Bill Thomas (.400) 5gp, 0-2-2
Bryan Lerg (.333) 9gp, 2-1-3
Ryan MacMurchy (.286) 14gp, 1-3-4
Colin McDonald (.278) 18gp, 3-2-5
Ryan O'Marra (.222) 18gp, 2-2-4
Ryan Potulny (.214) 14gp, 2-1-3
Geoff Paukovich (.167) 18gp, 3-0-3
Slava Trukhno (.118) 17gp, 1-1-2
Liam Reddox (.076) 13gp, 1-0-1
Kip Brennan (.056) 18gp, 0-1-1

And now the blue:

Theo Peckham (.300) 10gp, 0-3-3
Taylor Chorney (.250) 4gp, 0-1-1
Chris Armstrong (.188) 16gp, 0-3-3
Dean Arsene (.125) 16gp, 0-2-2
Jake Taylor (.111) 18gp, 0-2-2
Johan Motin (.077) 13gp, 0-1-1
Cody Wild (.000) 12gp, 0-0-0
Alex Plante (.000) 16gp, 0-0-0

NHL callups in bold. Clearly EV points per game haven't had too much to do with callups (especially the F's) but it's also clear that (unlike the last couple of seasons) the men Springfield is counting on up front are not high draft picks and top level prospects. The days of Pouliot, Schremp, Jacques and Nilsson are gone. Devan Dubnyk's .926SP is something to follow, though.

Avalanche at Oilers, G22, 09-10

2009-11-18T06:00:00.004-07:00

"What's the story with that dog?" may end up being the punchline for the Edmonton Oilers this season. They're home to the Avs, Hawks, Coyotes, Kings and Sharks before closing out the month on the road in Vancouver. The club begins December with a tough road trip, so if they're going climb back into the race now would be a good time.

There are some good signs. Defensively Lubo and Laddy are a nice pairing, and Sheldon Souray is starting to impact the powerplay for the first time all season. Tom Gilbert's play defensively has come under fire but he's an effective player with a wide range of skills. Steve Staios has limitations but is a veteran hand on the blue.

Up front, Dustin Penner is a smidgen from actually walking on water and Ales Hemsky is sublime. Our man Horcoff is picking up the pace despite once again playing at less than 100%. Young Andrew Cogliano seems to have some jump and Patrick O'Sullivan cannot go through an entire season with his gun jammed.

The Avalanche seem to have more sustain than we thought after their quick start to the season, but they played a tough one in Calgary last night and I think the Oilers win tonight. If they don't, we can look forward to the next GDT and it's title "If Dave was here....DAVE'S A KILLER....YEAH....Dave's a mess....."

And a quick final note. Dean Arsene has probably seen "Slapshot" and "Dumb and Dumber" and all those movies thousands of times on those junior and pro bus rides. One of the best stories surrounding this team in 2009 is that the Edmonton Oilers called up Arsene and he played in the show. I think everyone who is a fan can appreciate what that must mean to him.

A Letter to Daryl Katz

2009-11-17T17:00:00.003-07:00

Dear Mr. Katz,

I'm writing you today because you are open to new ideas, you have vision and wherewithal and you own the Edmonton Oilers. I am not an expert in any field, do not have any special credentials to recommend me and most certainly do not travel in the same circles as you.

What I do have is several thousand man hours of mulling over your hockey team. Even before you owned it, I'd obsess over this line or that pairing and especially fretted away 1992 and 1993 worrying over the Copper and Blue. When you arrived on the scene, I was pretty damn happy. It seemed as though my generation of Oiler fan had taken over the steering wheel and good times were close at hand. Sadly, it has not come to pass in a timely fashion.

I would like to suggest to you that most of what is happening under your administration has been positive. The procurement department is drafting quality talent, the coaching was good and may now be better, the things that may have derailed prospects have been addressed and the organization is in a good place in terms of assets.

I believe the reasons the Oilers are "on the outside looking in" every season are threefold:

Poor cap management. Mr Lowe is a legend in this town and I for one will cheer him and his efforts on the ice and in the community forever. I well remember being at Christmas bureau breakfasts when a groggy #4 would stroll in despite the fact he'd been in an NHL war the night before. Kevin Lowe is a class act all the way. However, we do find ourselves in a position where the team is close to the cap, has contracts that won't budge for years and you don't seem to be in a hurry to buy them out. I'd like to suggest that you offer Ethan Moreau a job this summer that involves coaching, and that you seriously consider asking the management group (Mr. Tambellini, Mr. Lowe, Mr. Prendergast) to trade a few veterans at the deadline.
Wait and see. I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but it seems to me that all of the other NHL teams begin each season with a "set" or "balanced" lineup. They are convinced that every game is a playoff game, beginning opening night. These teams start each game with the best possible lineup and very little leeway for "development" at the NHL level. Every season since 2006 has featured a distinct lack of balance on the Oilers roster to start the season. This year, the team is quite poor in experience and ability at both center and left wing. Points lost in November are just as dear in March and April. I know injuries have also contributed, but no team in the Northwest division spends as much time with "learn on the job" types as the Oilers. Mr. Katz, if this one thing was corrected it is my opinion the club would be more competitive every night and in fact Oiler fans could look forward to the playoffs every spring.
Duplicate skills. I'm not certain that any coach could develop as many undersized forwards who are unready as the current Edmonton Oilers have at the NHL level. By my count all of Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Gilbert Brule and Robert Nilsson are trying to establish themselves at the NHL level. Also on the roster are NHLers Patrick O'Sullivan and Mike Comrie, whose skills are duplicated by each other and the other young players. Has this ever worked, Mr. Katz? Has a team ever been able to develop this many small players with the same general skill set at the same time? It would seem to me that you'd know a thing or two about planning and implementing (I have no doubt the arena project is going to be breathtaking) so it is with some wonder that I observe this on your watch.

I would like to suggest some reading. Red Wings executive Jim Devellano wrote a book called "The Road to Hockeytown" awhile ago and in it he spends several chapters explaining the painful growth process of that franchise under the ownership of Mike Ilitch. I enjoyed reading it and expect there might be a few lessons for you in there. I mean no disrespect, this is information that can only come from well-meaning ownership determined to win. I think you'll agree that being open to new ideas and being able to learn from the mistakes of others are both extremely valuable things.

I want to wish you all the best and will of course be watching your progress closely. Please feel free to drop a line once in awhile and would love the opportunity to interview you on these subjects for this blog.

All the best, and God bless.

Eberle

2009-11-17T07:00:00.004-07:00

We know the value of a junior player's offense at ages 17 and 18, but by the time he's 19-years old said prospect is either in the NHL or should be tearing the cover off the ball. In order for a player to really impress at the junior level--to put himself in contention to skip the AHL at age 20--how much offense would be required?

I think Jordan Eberle may be approaching a level where we can begin to talk about him skipping Triple A and making the big club.

Why? There's just so much offense. I understand a lot of it is on the powerplay and he's playing extended minutes but this has all the makings of a "season for the ages." Plus, he's not exactly playing for the London Knights at this time.

Here's a list of some very impressive 19-year old seasons in the WHL over the years:

Jordan Eberle (09-10) 19gp, 18-22-40 2.11
Brett Sonne (08-09) 62gp, 48-52-100 1.61
Joffrey Lupul (02-03) 50gp, 41-37-78 1.56
Eric Fehr (04-05) 71gp, 59-52-111 1.56
Pavel Brendl (00-01) 49gp, 40-35-75 1.53
Martin Hanzal (06-07) 60gp, 26-59-85 1.42
Dustin Boyd (05-06) 64gp, 48-42-90 1.41
Tyler Ennis (08-09) 61gp, 43-42-85 1.39

As with all 3 Canadian junior leagues, most of the elite level talent is long gone by age 19. No matter how well he does this season Eberle isn't likely to approach the WHL's all-time records. Ray Ferraro's 108 goals are safe and the fastest 50 goals (Bill Derlago, 27 games for Brandon in 77-78) is a distant bell. Rob Brown's 212 points in a single season is also crazy talk.

Oilers at Jackets, G21, 09-10

2009-11-16T06:50:00.001-07:00

Years ago I was at a weekend sales seminar and the instructor was from Columbus, Ohio. Over the course of the weekend during lunch and dinner breaks I found out quite a bit about C-bus. Unlike Cleveland (made immortal in song by Randy Newman) and Cincinnati (home of Marge Schott), Columbus is progressive, clean, innovative, cutting edge.

Ohio's future is in Columbus. The trading area is about 1.7 million people (Edmonton's is over 1 million but Columbus is much bigger in terms of population) but the city itself (213 square miles) is much smaller than sprawling Edmonton (264 square miles) and its endless photo radar vehicles.

The highest temperature ever recorded in Columbus was 106, Edmonton's highest was 100 in August 1998.

I could say 10 words about Edmonton and anyone from the area would have memories flood. Gretzky, Black Friday, 5 Stanley's, Leduc #1, West Edmonton Mall. I don't know 10 words about Columbus that would inspire similar memories, but I do hope at some point the city has a reason to remember the Blue Jackets for something really good. That city endured Doug MacLean, and Canadians owe it to every Columbus resident to make up for it somehow during our lifetime.

It's the right thing to do.

--

I'm not going to be too popular among Oildrop fans today, but this game could get ugly for the Oilers. The Jackets are 10-6-2, and an impressive 5-2-2 at home. They're well run and spent this past summer addressing needs and trying to find ways to get better. They have no cap issues and they seem to have depth in most areas. They must lead the league in former Oilers--Jan Hejda, Jason Chimera, Raffi Torres, Mathieu Garon. I think Garon may be starting tonight.

The Edmonton Oilers on the other hand are a team in the National Hockey League.

Is There Hope For Slava Trukhno?

2009-11-15T16:40:00.001-07:00

At the far outer marker of the Oilers LW pro depth chart (Dustin Penner is at the top) comes the name Vyacheslav Trukhno. Chosen in the 4th round of the 2005 Entry Draft, Trukhno delivered two terrific junior seasons at ages 18 and 19. His 20-year old AHL season started slowly (4-6-10 -1 before Christmas 2007 in 23 games) and ended quite well (final 20 games in 07-08 he went 8-10-18 -2) with some ups and downs in between. His 21-year old AHL season started well (1-6-7 +3 in his first 8 games) and ended poorly (1-2-3 -5 in his final 14 games) with more downs than ups in between.

This season, Trukhno was horrible in the season's first 6 games (0-0-0, -1) but has come along nicely in the last 10 games (2-4-6 -2). Today he had a goal and an assist, his first multiple point game since 2008 December. Is Trukhno making any progress? Is there still a chance for him as a prospect? I'm preparing this winter's top 20 and one of the issues at the end of the list are questions surrounding guys like Trukhno. Let's start by listing his pro seasons:

Age 20: 64gp, 14-21-35 .547
Age 21: 56gp, 7-19-26 .464
Age 22: 16gp, 2-4-6 .375

As I recall Slava was mid-group in terms of toughness in the Jonathan Willis Springfield study. This is a guy I always liked because he had a wide range of skills--great hands, excellent passer, good vision, tough enough, speed was good not great.

This guy has talent. Craig MacTavish: "The guy is a player. He's strong, sees the ice well and knows where to put the puck. On the powerplay, he sees all of his options and explores them all. He makes it tough on defenders."

I'm watching Trukhno closely this fall and winter because it might just be his 'last-chance Texaco' with Rob Daum and the organization. I've noticed the coach giving him good linemates and he appears to be getting his share of PP chances. I think it's up to him, and it appears the organization has done it correctly right down the line. But we're in year three and waiting for the light to go on. During his three minor league seasons in Springfield, Trukhno has seen the following forwards called to the show ahead of him: JF Jacques, Rob Schremp, Zack Stortini, Robert Nilsson, Liam Reddox, Patrick Thoresen, Marc Pouliot, Tim Sestito, Gilbert Brule, Ryan Potulny, Ryan Stone, Ryan O'Marra. I know of no time in which Slava Trukhno was under serious consideration for recall, despite his impressive showing in TC and the MacT quote above. Is there any hope for this player?

Oilers at Thrashers, G20, 09-10

2009-11-15T08:00:00.001-07:00

No matter how long the Thrashers spend in Atlanta, the Flames were more interesting in their time in the south.

If you wanted a template for building a franchise from expansion to Stanley, the Flames and Cliff Fletcher's story with that franchise are textbook. Just like the Kansas City Royals in baseball, the Flames approached the expansion draft by pursuing young players who could both play competitively in the NHL and improve from what they were at that point in time. Exhibit "A" for the Flames was Daniel Bouchard, left exposed by bat-crazy Milt Schmidt the same summer his #1 goalie (Gerry Cheevers) flew the coop for the WHA. It cost poor Milt his job eventually (it wasn't the worst goalie crime in an expansion draft for the Bruins, they'd lost Bernie Parent to the Flyers 5 years previous) and was one example of why Cliff Fletcher has been employed steadily in important NHL jobs for the last 40+ seasons.

--

I think we need to change focus for this edition of the Oilers. We're at the 20 game mark, the coach doesn't know what we have, the GM is prattling on about waiting to see his team healthy (can fans mutiny? is that an option?) and we don't really know who is healthy (or playing for that matter).

So today I'm looking for the Frank Mahovlich in Dustin Penner, the Doug Gilmour in Sam Gagner, the thrill of Dean Arsene in his first NHL game (should he play). I'm not saying this club is hopeless, but do believe they are outmanned pretty much every night these days and that the men who could do something about it have decided to pass on the opportunity.

Expecting victory would be frustrating, let's agree that "small steps" like Gagner maturing are going to have to be good enough until that sweet day when there are no injuries, when everyone grows up, when Kevin Lowe's vision comes into view.

Arsene and Heard!

2009-11-14T11:20:00.003-07:00

This is Dean Arsene. The 29-year old AHL veteran becomes an NHL rookie today in true Jose "Coco" Laboy fashion.

We talked about Arsene as a possible option here during the summer. He might be the next Bobby Allen but he could be the next Scott Ferguson. Arsene has over 400 games of pro experience (over 500 if you include playoffs) and tomorrow is his "Don Cherry" moment.

I'm not certain who he'll be replacing along the blue (Chorney is ailing, Souray may or may not play and Grebeshkov is gone for awhile) and there's always a chance he'll be recalled without making it into the lineup.

Which would be a shame.

Petry Gaining Traction

2009-11-14T08:35:00.001-07:00

This is Jeff Petry. The young defender is enjoying a very nice start to this season at Michigan State. His boxcars (11gp, 1-9-10 +3) are excellent and a brief glance under the hood shows good things (reading game reports reveals he seems to be playing against the tougher opponents) and average things (that +3 comes on a team that is +11 right now at even strength).

Either way, Petry is a player who will show better in this winter's top 20 (he was #7 last December but slipped all the way to #19 in the June ranking) and things are looking up. He won't be the #1 defender on the list though, as nagging concerns about foot speed and coverage gaps remain.

While it is important to remember with these kids that their powerplay totals (especially the blue) won't exist for several years once they're in the NHL (if ever), Petry is building a nice resume in this department.

Petry's powerplay numbers (0-5-5) and even strength numbers (1-4-5) are about equal at this point in time and those kind of PP totals 11 games into the season are very impressive. When Tom Gilbert was at the same point in his college career (third year, junior season) he went 5-5-10 on the powerplay and 3-4-7 at EVs.

Jeff Petry turns 22 in December, long in the tooth for a college player and not terribly far from free agency (he'll have to sign a standard entry level college contract). I'm not certain of how much value their is in keeping him in college for another season. Whatever his negatives there appears to be enough positive for the Oilers to get things started as soon as possible.

Oh for Crying out Loud

2009-11-13T16:56:00.005-07:00

Good grief. Denis Grebeshkov's knee injury is "significant", Fernando's colitis has flared up again and he's flown home, Stone's knee has him a ways from recovery and Jacques is days away.

Horcoff and Souray are getting closer on the good side of things, but O'Sullivan apparently left the ice today.

This might be one of those seasons where the organizations empty's all of the shelves and we see everyone play in the majors.

This ordinarily happens only after we're out of the pennant race, but injuries seem to be deciding that early on for these Edmonton Oilers. If they can recover from the flu, the plague and the hammer of the Hockey Gods and make the second season, it'll be one for the ages.

This team is in a world of hurt.

Bad Back Jacques

2009-11-13T07:08:00.005-07:00

Big man Jean-Francois Jacques' back injury looks to be worse than originally expected. We could read between the lines a little (no update) but Matty in the EJ said today that the back spasms were worse than thought at the outset and that there's no word on how long he'll be out.

Stone's gone, Horcoff is recovering and may play Sunday, Hemsky's problem (according to Matty) may be something aside from the shoulder and he speculates back (too).

Reddox has a clear head but is bruised all over from that hit he took in Buffalo the other night. The Oilers up front were a dog's breakfast at the starting gate; now it's more like a cf.

This Just In: Hemsky's Really Good!!!

2009-11-12T16:00:00.001-07:00

Among the things I thought we'd never need to say: Ales Hemsky is a very good NHL hockey player. His contract is exceptional, the tragedy of these years since 2006 summer is that the team didn't get more from it. Recently on this blog and others, questions about Hemsky's ability on the powerplay have come to the fore.

Numbers published on this blog and others frame the issue in a most negative fashion. I don't understand the rationale and I certainly don't agree with the "framed math." So let's set some things straight. Below are the leaders (by year) at 5x4/60 points-per-game for the Edmonton Oilers since 2007-08. Based on 50 games and 3 minutes per game PP time.

2007-08

Ales Hemsky 5.93
Dustin Penner 4.07
Shawn Horcoff 4.00

2008-09

Ales Hemsky 5.00
Shawn Horcoff 3.68
Sam Gagner 3.12

2009-10

Dustin Penner 6.92
Ales Hemsky 5.88
Mike Comrie 5.56

Source is the brilliant Gabriel Desjardins and of course 2009-10 numbers are not at the 50 game mark. All three seasons have 3:00 minutes or more TOI at 5x4. Hemsky's 05-06 number at 5x4 btw was 5.45, making him an extremely consistent powerplay performer.

I'm one of those who believe Sam Gagner may eventually take over from Hemsky, and in fact Gagner this season (5.85) is very good. However, if the argument is that Gagner is ready to take over the Hemsky role I think we'd need more proof than running alongside for 19 games of one season.

We're going to have plenty of time to talk about Gagner v. Hemsky on the powerplay over the next couple of seasons. I'm hoping we can keep it from becoming personal and vicious, but after the last couple of days am not confident we can do it.

Falcons Altering Flight Plan

2009-11-12T07:18:00.003-07:00

This is a photo from last season's Falcon club. We can see Pouliot, O'Marra, Dubnyk and a few other prospects in this photo. In following the Oilers AHL team I have my own pecking order in terms of likely recalls. For the 09-10 season, my list of possible recalls would have been Theo Peckham (despite the injury), Liam Reddox, Devan Dubnyk, Ryan Potulny and Chris Minard.

The Oilers have recalled Taylor Chorney, Theo Peckham, Liam Reddox and Ryan Potulny. Plus Ryan O'Marra! AND it looks like Colin McDonald is really turning heads. Guy Flaming has an excellent post over on his blog (I don't have time to post the link, it's Coming Down the Pipe!). Please have a look, it's required reading for Oilers/Falcons fans.

Grebeshkov Hurt

2009-11-11T20:30:00.001-07:00

Courtesy Oilers twitter: Grebeshkov injured his knee in the final minute (of tonight's game) and is flying back to Edmonton. Will miss the remainder of road trip.

Sheldon Souray is apparently skating and there were whispers earlier he might play in Atlanta. Oilers are running out of blue.

How Many Prospects "Make It"?

2009-11-11T19:40:00.002-07:00

Jarret Stoll was selected by the Edmonton Ice 1st overall in the 1997 WHL Bantam draft. He was selected 46th overall by the Calgary Flames in the 2000 NHL Entry draft and 36th overall by Edmonton Oilers in the 2002 NHL draft.

I remember a story running around the time of the 2002 draft that several teams (including the Leafs) were angry at Edmonton's management at the time. Why? There's apparently a "gentleman's agreement" among teams that no player who re-enters the draft will be selected earlier than his draft number in the original lottery. I'm no lawyer, but if true it might behoove the NHL to stop talking about it. Consdering the money these kids make based on draft number, isn't that collusion? At the very list, it's an act of tiny, tiny men if true.

I'm preparing for the winter edition of the Top 20 prospects (end November) and want to lay some groundwork for it. I'd like to start by establishing a "reasonable" number for legit NHL prospects. Not everyone on the top 20 is going to have a career, so it would be nice to have a number in our back pocket.

Below is a list of (my) summer 2003 top 20, and with it the current number of NHL games played (source hockeydb). Those in bold are "established" NHL players.

Jarret Stoll (378)
Jani Rita (66)
MA Pouliot (141)
Raffi Torres (374)
Jesse Niinimaki (zero)
Jeff Drouin Deslauriers (13)
Doug Lynch (2)
Kenny Smith (zero)
Matt Greene (251)
Mikael Joukov (zero)
Ivan Kolstov (zero)
Brock Radunske (zero)
Colin McDonald (zero)
MA Bergeron (350)
Ty Conklin (156)
Fredrik Johansson (zero)
JF Jacques (75)
Dwight Helminen (23)
Tony Salmelainen (70)
Kalle Olsson

I've selected 5 (Stoll, Torres, Greene, Bergeron, Conklin) as "established" NHL players. There could be as many as 3 more (Pouliot, Deslauriers, Jacques) who could make it. So, somewhere between 5-7? Is that a fair number?

Also of interest on this list: the number of undrafted players who made it (Bergeron, Conklin) and the number of first round picks who either failed (Rita, Niinimaki) or are in danger (Pouliot) of failing to make the grade.

One question that I have: is this a normal amount of players who are still trying to make the grade? By my count all of Pouliot, Deslauriers, McDonald and Jacques are still trying to climb that hill. Do the Oilers hold on to their prospects longer than other teams?

Oilers at Sabres, G19, 09-10

2009-11-11T12:01:00.004-07:00

I don't have any real idea about this edition of the Edmonton Oilers. I picked them 11th in the conference and that's about where they are today. I don't think you can make a strong case for this team being a playoff club unless they ride luck, good health and a trade deadline for the ages into the fringes of the second season.

If you're going to counter that argument, the conversation begins with Dustin Penner. Whatever else we get out of this season, the absolute thrill of this guy emerging as a top flight talent is a major factor for the club. The Oilers are 1-0-1 on this roadtrip and 8-8-2 for the season. Buffalo is a superior team at a glance and upon review, and getting another point tonight would have to be considered impossible.

But Dustin Penner and the Oilers have surprised us before.

EDIT TO ADD: Hemsky may play tonight, Horcoff and Souray are skating but likely to play later in the road trip (if they play at all this trip).

Remembrance Day

2009-11-11T00:01:00.000-07:00