Serbia Blog

Denationalization

2006-10-18T13:33:00.000+02:00

In the recent period, even more and more talking has been done on when and what should be denationalized. Few weeks ago in B92, it has been mentioned that around 500.000 people will receive back their stolen property from the Communists after the WWII. Out of these 500.000, around 90% of them will have their lives changed dramatically, if the law on denationalization.

On the TV show "Timofejev", a reportage has been made where a Serbian-American artist, George Ilic is awaiting his family's property to be returned which consists of the now empty are between the hotel "Moskva" and the Kraljice Natalije street, as well as a great part of the Zvezdara forest where his family's vineyards were. He hopes that, as soon as he gets it all back, he will invest and develop a business. However, some people can just hope for a monetary compensation, like the Vranes family whose workshop doesn't exist anymore on the corner of Kneza Milosa and Krunska Street. They can only hope for money in their accounts, as many people expect also the same.

Whether property returned or simply monetary compensation, this act would have great social effects in the Serbian society. Since Serbia already has a wealthy elite, mostly people of supsicious backgrounds such as Miskovic, Beko and Karic, the new elite is already the bearer of old civil values that were dominant in the pre-WWII Yugoslavia and can become not only a competition on the economic elite of Serbia, but also the competition to the so-called "civil intellectual elite" of Serbia. It is a question whether in this case the civil values of the royal Yugoslavia, that had an evolution from the 19th century until the violent overtaking of communism, will prevail over the post-communist civil values, or will they cohabitate?

Politics Update

2006-09-28T20:23:00.000+02:00

It looks as if we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the current government as the political situation in Serbia becomes clearer.

The rough timescale of events will be as follows - the finalisation of the new Serbian constitution, a referendum on the constitution in October / November and finally elections in December / January.

President Tadic and PM Kostunica have agreed on this loose timescale and are also close to agreement on the form the new government might take. In plainspeak this means who gets what ministries. Some are speculating that Kostunica may actually remain Prime Minister and in return Tadic will be backed by Kostunica and his satellite parties in the Presidential elections. Talks are ongoing and who gets what will be influenced by the election result.

The Serbian Radical Party is also playing ball and is being consulted before the final text of the constitution is written up and brought before Parliament.

What does this mean in terms of Serbia's short to medium term future? Almost certainly another 'democratic' government which should be comfortably in place before Kosovo is proclaimed conditionally independent. This government will likely serve a full term.

In terms of party politics it signifies the return of the Democratic Party to government as the leading reformist party as they will receive the lions share of votes from the democratic block voters. However, it also means an almost amazing turn around in fortune for Kostunica and his DSS. It looked as if his favourite pet project, the constitution, was dead in the water but he may well toast success now. This, coupled with funds from the NIP, will allow him to build up some momentum before the election date and perhaps allow him to steal a few points away from rival parties. If his DSS manage 15 percent they will be delighted.

The Radicals have no interest in power at this point - harbouring no desire to be governing whilst Kosovo goes independent. They thus sacrifice their chances of governing for a further 4 years. Of course they reserve the right to take to the streets on Kosovo and to perhaps try to topple the government that way. Still, its interesting to speculate about how the Serbian Radical Party will look at the election after next. If the democratic block does throw its full weight behind Tadic at the Presidential elections the Radicals will likely face further electoral defeat.

Smaller parties, such as Cedomir Jovanovic's LDP may enter parliament, ironically also due to the constitution. LDP will bitterly campaign against the constitution due to the clauses naming Kosovo an integral part of Serbia.

But for once it looks like events are conspiring in Serbia to produce a more positive outcome.

PS Where Mladic fits into all this is anyones guess. Thinking off the top of my head it might be seen as potentially risky to deal with it now - meaning that the most likely (or optimally the best) time to locate and arrest will be in January.

tags: politics, elections, Serbia, constitution

Battle for third mobile operator begins / NIP

2006-09-21T21:12:00.000+02:00

Somewhat sooner than expected, the Serbian government announced that the license for the third mobile phone operator, to compete against Telenor and state owned MTS, would be granted before the end of the year.

The news suggests that the Serbian government did a good job in selling Mobitel to Telenor since some observers claimed that part of that contract would be to give the winner at least 6 months of 'breathing space' before having to compete against a third rival.

As previously stated the starting price for the license will be 320 million Euros. Potential bidders include France Telecom, Oraskom (Egypt), Deutch Telekom (Germany), Telefonika (Spain), KPN Mobile (Holland) and Mobilkom. For now there is no word from mobile giant Vodaphone who have an agreement with Mobilkom not to compete on the same market.

The favourites must be Mobilkom who want to be present on the Serbian market as part of their wider regional strategy. But the same is true for Deutch Telekom (T-Mobile).

For now most analysts are keeping silent on how much they believe the government will bank but government sources suggest that any sum over 500 million Euros will be highly satisfactory.

And much of that total will be ploughed into the National Investment Plan which is a smart strategy for governing DSS since polls suggest that the Serbian voting public is rather keen on the NIP. Rather predictably the IMF have been sounding the alarm bells on the same issue. They claim that the money could be more wisely spent and are worried about the potential inflationary pressure on the economy.

It is crucial that funds from the NIP are wisely spent since there are only a few more large scale privatisations left to be carried out in Serbia - such as NIS (Oil Industry of Serbia). And one must be wary of the government tending to spend money on projects they believe will increase their popularity rather than benefit the country in the longer term.
However, many of the projects, particularly relating to infrastructure are necessary and long overdue. The current government may be fortunate to find itself in this position but if the money is well spent the current government will deserve to be remembered positively, on this issue at least.

Media Roundup - The Dreaded M(ladic) Word

2006-09-21T19:14:00.000+02:00

The man who never seems far from the headlines - Ratko Mladic is again the subject of conjecture in the Serbian media.

The latest speculation seems to centre around an alleged Russian connection. Namely, during the Bosnian war Mladic appears to have bought weapons from the chief of Russian State Security Stjepasin. And yesterday it materialised that one of Mladic's right hand men, Marko Lugonja was arrested just minutes before his flight was due to take off - bound for Moscow. One version claims that Lugonja had already boarded the airplane but men in suits burst into the aircraft and then detained him. The other, preferred by Lugonja, is that he was stopped at passport control.
The operation was co-ordinated by the Special War Crimes Prosecutor Vukcevic in conjunction with the security agency BIA.

Either way the event was something of a fiasco since although Lugonja was meant to appear in court soonish, he still had the use of his passport and was technically was free to travel. Its not immediately clear why this occurred but with the Serbian record of letting suspects flee, hardly surprising.

Logonja now claims that the whole incident was set up with the intention of impressing the 'internationals' and Carla Del Ponte. As in many shady episodes in the Balkans there may be some truth in this - but of course this doesn't mean he didnt intend to flee.

Another Hague indictee Goran Hadzic is also (somewhat suspiciously) making the news. In what feels like a PR campaign by the Serbian government the potential arrest of Hadzic is being touted in the media as a possible offering to Del Ponte and the EU in return for the continuation of Serbian EU integration.

Sources quoted in the media say that if the EU refuses to continue the talks then the government will be forced to call a general election.

Are the Europeans impressed? Will Serbia go to the polls yet again this October?
Stay tuned.

Veliki brat meme

2006-09-17T08:49:00.001+02:00

Veliki brat (Big brother) just started showing in Serbia. I won't go into discussion about this show, because everything has been said already, and we are all sick of it yet we still watch it.

What is interesting for me here is what big news the winner of the show will miss in the next one hundred days*. My tips as for the events in Serbia are concerned:

Kosovo independence,
Serbian parliamentary elections.

You are free to continue this meme on your blog or to add some of your suggestions in the comments if you don't have your own blog.

* Come to think of it, missing these news and not being a part of the crazy house we will have here in the next period is almost bigger reward than the official one, 100.000 EUR in cash.

BG's note - we will be doing some coverage of Big Brother Serbia over the next 3 months.

Opinion Poll - and its potential impact

2006-09-15T20:00:00.000+02:00

One should always take opinion polls with a pinch of salt but this one conducted in Serbia from the 21st - 24th July by Strategic Marketing (one of the most respected pollsters) has caused recent comment. Its part of the poll I mentioned below regarding Europe.

The usual 'how high can the Radicals go?' question reverted to the 'who is in the lead?' question which we haven't seen in Serbia for many months:

The Serbian Radical Party 36 percent
Democratic Party 31 percent
Democratic Party of Serbia 11 percent
Socialist Party of Serbia 5 percent

Parties G17, Nova Srbija, LDP (Cedo Jovanovic) follow on under the required census.

The poll is extensive and is part of the stats I gave below on the EU (hmm why are CESID and others only commenting now?) and provides interesting statistics on a number of other issues including the most pressing public concern (unemployment) and public optimism - people are predictably negative.

Conclusions? For the first time in many months, if elections were to be held tomorrow DS and DSS could form a government. That's a government without the need for hangers on, grand coalitions between parties etc. Both DS and DSS support is rising even if support for the Radical party is also in the ascendancy.

This throws a bit of a spanner in the works since senior members of the Kostunica government recently took the decision to continue with their current government until early next year. Not such an easy 'decision' to make when your coalition parties are threatening to steal the rug from under your feet. But Kostunica has a contingency plan involving bringing other parties into the government coalition to fill the gap.

The poll might put DSS in a slightly stronger negotiating position with these smaller parties - at least temporarily. After all Kostunica has less to lose than they do if he calls elections.

Guca - not the only Serbian brand

2006-09-05T21:14:00.000+02:00

Another Guča (alternative foreign transcriptions Gucha, Gucca, Goocha, Gutscha or even Gootzscha) festival is finished and we give you the recap here.
Officials say that the festival was visited by almost half of million visitors this year, more than ever. Tons of grilled meat, (pechenje, pljeskavice, cevapcici) hectolitres of alcoholic drinks (pivo, vino, rakija) and thousands of cubic metres of festivals speciality - sauerkraut (kiseli kupus) were devoured and hundreds of people still fell their ears buzzing because of loud trumpet music. Hundreds of thousands of EURos remain in pockets of entrepreneurs such as room and hotel owners, restaurant workers, musicians of all kinds. Dark numbers - one registered death case and several hundred drunk driving fines, probably dozen drunken fights and several dozens broken hearts.

This years Guča also brought an aftermath discussion started by criticism from Teofil Pancic about whether it's good to advertise the festival as Serbian brand, being that it doesn't actually always represent Serbians in a positive way.
I have to agree with one thing - that it is certainly not good to advertise it as the ONLY Serbian brand, and certainly not good to talk about it in a way that our prime minister did:

"Gucha represents in a best way what Serbia is today, what does its openness, belief in oneself, hospitality, party and music. Trumpet festival is a confirmation on our courage and joy both in good and bad times. It represents people's return to the roots, joy and meaning of life.
It speaks about who we are, what we are, our urges. We express our joy and sadness with trumpet, we are born with sounds of trumpet, and also buried with sounds of trumpet. Guca is Serbian brand, it's a value that can represent Serbia in the world.
Those that cant understand and love Guca, cant understand Serbia. If we are going to go in EU without our melodies and colors, than we wouldn't know who we are."

Now what is wrong with this speech, besides the fact that it's politically motivated (elections are coming) and completely unnecessary on one such festival? Well, it simply is a bit far from the truth.

You don't have to love trumpet and Guca to understand Serbia. You dont even have to know what Guca is to love Serbia. Because Guca is far from only thing that can represent Serbia, and that is exactly what the prime ministar is clumsily trying to make out of it.

Speeches like this one are dangerous because they give ultra natinalists more rights to claim this festival as their own and in a way 'kidnap' it from other people. That's why it is possible to see young men proudly wearing t-shirts with war criminals in the festival crowds, thank god only a handfull of them, but still one handfull too many.

Personaly i think that Guca is a good brand because it does represent "the life as it once was" but that's why i'm afraid that it doesn't fall into trap of being the ONLY thing Serbia can give. And hopefully the plans of making an international festival and letting the foreign bands compete together with Serbian ones stop the nationalistic aproach to the whole thing.
But also it seems as forbidding all kinds of political speeches is a must in the future.

Yet another festival is underway, Leskovacka rostiljada, or "Leskovac Grilliade", roughly and poorly translated to English by yours truly. If Guca is celebration of brass music, this must be celebration of food (not if you're vegetaerian and only if "food" translates as "meat" in your system of values). Held in a small town of Leskovac in Southern Serbia, it is an annual festival with more and more foreigners attending each year. Why? Well simply because they discovered that they can eat better, bigger and tastier Pljeskavica for one EUR than they could with Doner Kebab, Giros, Falafel or hamburger, for two or three times the amount of money in any other city in Europe. Clever, don't you think? Plus the party goes on deep into the night, but that is something that you should be getting used to in Serbian festivals.

Speaking of weird festivals I have to mention this one as well, but it seems i can't get to describe it no matter how hard i tried, so i'll just leave the address: http://www.ballscup.com/ Now think if we advertised that as the best or only Serbian brand? I can only imagine my conversation abroad: "Yes i am from Serbia. No, we don't all eat that."

Serbian media roundup

2006-09-02T16:51:00.000+02:00

This is the first in a regular series of fortnightly reports on a subject(s) in the Serbian media.

In conjunction with the OSCE Blic newspaper recently chose a female government - that is a government with every Minister represented by a woman. One woman was selected as Minister by readers every day out of a list of successful women.

Of the better known women Zorica Tomic (writer, lecturer) was chosen as Minister of Culture, Princess Jelisaveta Karadjordjevic was selected as Minister of the Diaspora, Milka Forcan (PR manager at Delta - Miskovic) as Trade and Tourism Minister. Ivana Dulic-Markovic (prominent because of the recent 'ustasa' jibe) was voted Vice Prime Minister and Ruzica Djindjic (wife of assassinated PM Djindjic, involved in a number of humanitarian and environmental organisations) chosen as Prime Minister.

Initially I was skeptical, although I support the rights of women, in my opinion there would be little difference in the world if women traded places with men in senior positions. That is because sex or gender is much less important than the culture of power and the system in which the human race currently finds itself. Thus, when you read the words of some editor or from some of the women involved that they are 'convinced that the world would be a better place' (if they were to run it) one feels a little dubious.

However, after consideration, I agree that this campaign of promoting the profile of professional women is beneficial to society. Equally there is something to be learnt from all of this in terms of future politics in Serbia. The women who were selected in the most senior roles are here to stay in Serbian politics / public life.
Ruzica Djindjic's vote was particularly impressive, 1689 votes, and the only candidate throughout the series that really made an impact on the public - she received thousands of votes and trounced her competitor for the PM spot, Vesna Pesic.

This confirms my opinion concerning Ruzica Djindjic - that if she wants to (and those who know her say that she will wait for her children to grow up before a final decision) high office is hers for the taking. Other opinion polls have confirmed this. Some months ago senior Radical Party officials decided on a policy of targeting her but when it became clear that she currently has no interest in office the attacks ceased. The implication is clear.

Ivan Lendjer - the problemsolver

2006-09-01T04:05:00.000+02:00

An extraordinary event happened yesterday at world swimming championship in Brazil, where Serbian representative Ivan Lendjer won first place. This event itself is excellent news, but what makes it unique is something that happenned during the ceremony of giving medals. For some reason, a problem occured - the Brazilian organizers failed to play the national anthem of Serbia "Hej Sloveni" - due to the fact that they dont know what the Serbian national anthem is nowdays, or simply bad organization.
But Ivan simply solved this problem by singing the anthem himself. Audience listened without making a sound and other national team members joined in. They recieved massive applause afterwards.
News on B92

Now why is this obscure sport news worthy of being in Serbia Blog?

Couple of things makes it symbolic on several levels.
Anthem "Hej Sloveni" is considered a relique from the communist past, somehow still official national anthem, waiting to be replaced by more "appropriate", religious one, "Boze Pravde" (God of justice). This is actualy first time in last 15 years i heard somebody applauded to the hymn, usually it is boo-ed at football games by Serbian fans, and it's never sung by the sportists - when camera zooms on their faces you can usually see them chewing gum, winking and generally not standing still and proud (strange, i know).

Ivan is 16 years old and has won over 350 medals for Serbia so far. That fact alone deserves major respect. But the problem is that lately he has complained of lack of funding and inappropriate training conditions in Serbia and stated that he is thinking of taking Australian citizenship. Maybe singing the long forgotten anthem was his way of saying goodbye to Serbia.

This is what hurts the most - thousands of such individuals left and are still leaving the country because of economic and political problems. Can we really afford to lose the practical problemsolvers and champions like Ivan?

BG anons note - The Serbian government allocated 6 billion dinars to sport this year with funds from the National Investment Plan (or the Karic malaevolent fund if you prefer). The sum is apparantly 6 times bigger than last years budget.

An advert published in Serbian newspapers

2006-08-22T19:26:00.000+02:00

Interesting little tidbit. This week an advert appeared in the Serbian media asking candidates to apply for translation jobs. Languages that need translating include 'Montenegrin' and 'Bosniak'.

The advert itself was paid by a Croatian company that didn't feel the need to translate their job description into Serbian either which was a little odd considering the implication that they (Serbian, Croatian, Bosniak) are all different languages. The lucky candidate selected can count on earning about 5 Euros per translated page

Whilst the Serbian media has found the topic rather amusing - there are very few differences between Montenegrin (as its now called) and Serbian that isn't the point that concerns me.

What puzzles me now is this emergence from 'Bosnian' to 'Bosniak'. Not necessarily the insistence of a separate ethnic identity which used to be called Bosnian Muslum or Slav Muslum but now a 'new' language to boot. Evidence of further balkanisation? How long will it be before the Bosnian Serbs press for their own language? How long before the people of Porec claim they are speaking Istrian? What chances are there for Vojvodian or Hercegovian peoples be allowed to claim the right to their own language?

Or have I misread the advert and the idea behind it? Are they saying that only Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslums) need apply? Its hard to keep up with the idiocies of fragmentisation but I'm not the only one who is confused by all this.

2006-08-11T17:43:00.000+02:00

How Much does Europe like Serbia?

Leaving the dry topics to one side the European commission conducts polls concerning EU member and non member states. One of them is to canvas opinion on how European citizens view other countries.

These are the results of the latest poll - whether EU citizens see potential Serbian EU membership as positive or negative:

Germany 37 percent for Serbian EU entry 55 percent against
France 50 percent for 41 against
Spain 50 percent for 18 against
Austria 30 percent for 65 against
Slovenia 66 percent for 29 against
Poland 60 percent for 22 against
Sweden 64 percent for 24 against
United Kingdom 41 percent for 37 against
Hungary 43 percent for 45 against
Greece 67 percent for 32 against
Slovakia 56 percent for 32 against

Looking at this from the point of view of traditional friendships there are few surprises here. The Germans and Austrians particularly oppose Serbian EU membership, the Greeks, and Scandinavian countries support Serbian membership strongly with most others broadly supportive. Another positive for Serbian EU membership is that the important players in the region like Poland and other EU countries such as Slovenia, Czech Republic and Slovakia also back Serbia.

These stats weren't from the original source which may be here:
http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_255_en.pdf

Apologies, I tried to get the original stats but my computer hates pdf's just like me.

And how much does Serbia 'like' Europe? A survey was conducted from 21st July to 24th July on EU membership by Strategic Marketing.
The question was 'Do you support (Serbian) membership of the European Union?'
57 percent answered 'for' (yes)
27 percent 'dont have an opinion'
9 percent are 'against' (no)
7 percent answered 'not interested'.

2006-08-08T18:22:00.000+02:00

Serbian government sells Mobi63

Telenor beats off Telecom Austria to become new owner of Mobi63. In a bidding process covered live by Radio Television Serbia the Norwegian company and Telecom Austrias traded bids but the Norwegian company came out on top.

The future of the company formerly known as Mobtel has been in the balance for some time. Firstly there was the dispute over the ownership structure that was being mulled over by European arbitrators. Then there was the alleged deal that former owner Bogoljub Karic made with Russian businessmen on selling his company BK Trade - which owned a reported 70 percent share of Mobtel. The Russian bid vanished and this quickly metamorphasised into the same deal but with Austrian 'freelancers' Martin Schlaff and company. Schlaff and his consortium specialise in the purchase of difficult companies (particularly in Eastern Europe) which they then sell on making a few million Euros profit into the bargain. The advantage in hiring somebody like Schlaff is that it prevents companies from getting their hands dirty or from getting their fingers burnt. Anybody interested in Schlaffs dubious past should check this:

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB115447779657224034-c41dBtbqmiHahGgVvf1Ziysq3OQ_20060808.html?mod=regionallinks

In the case of Mobtel Karic and Schlaff signed a secret agreement that (we presume) covered every eventuality or possibility. Nobody is certain how much Schlaff paid for BK Trade although 100 million is mentioned. In the end it turned out that Schlaff only had ownership of 20 percent of Mobtel (mobi63) shares. Alongside that the Serbian government promised Schalff that he would be given a fair chance to purchase the rest of Mobi63.

(The 20 percent share was the result of the decision of the Serbian government to finally pursue Karic for a number of infractions which Mobtels management committee had made. Those more sympathetic to Karic would say he was a victim of politicians who were afraid that he had grown too powerful. Both views have merit. )

In the end the sale of Mobi63 surprised most observers.
Firstly it was expected that Schlaff and Telecom Austria would see off the competition - some were concerned that the Serbian government had met with Schlaff, Austrian officials (Telecom Austria is partly owned by the Austrian government) and Telecom Austria representatives. This led to the suspicion that somehow the Serbian government would favour the Austrian bid. This belief proved false.
Secondly the sum of 1.53 billion was at the high end of the scale. Most predicted that the company would be sold in the range of 900 million to 1.2 billion Euros.
Thirdly it was clear that the Austrians deliberately tabled a low initial bid knowing that they could match any bid made and lose out because of their low initial bid. In practice this ensured that they would receive more for their 20 percent share of Mobi63 sold to them by Karic.

From a Serbian perspective the sale is good news since about 1.1 billion Euros will go to the Serbian government. (The remaining sum will go to Schlaff / Telecom Austria.)
This means more money will be earmarked for the projects of the national investment strategy.
Money that many say which belongs to the Serbian people but was stolen from them by the Milosevic era oligarchs.
The process itself was open, transparent and whilst it might not encourage new investment it shows that companies that want to invest in Serbia do not need to grease palms in order to receive fair treatment. (Even if corruption remains a problem in Serbia)

And what do Karic and Schlaff have to say about it? The latter claims he was 'conned' by the former. The former says that Mobi63 was worth 3 billion Euros. Does anybody truly believe either claim?

Of more concern is the potential case that Karic could have were a sympathetic government to come to power in Serbia. Some legal experts claim he has a case. On the other hand if Karic were to try to receive financial compensation at a later point it would likely go down very badly with Serbian voters. Karic would be more inclined to trade this potential legal route for dropping charges against him and his family for the various financial misproprieties they committed over the years.

One additional detail which makes the case more interesting - the introduction of a third mobile operator on the Serbian market. The Serbian government has confirmed that there will be a third operator but there is a little confusion concerning the time scale. Some observers thought that the Serbian government had promised that the winner of Mobi63 would be granted a year or so before the license for a third operator would be issued. This, it was thought, would bump the price up of Mobi63 a little more. However, government ministers are giving contradictory statements to the media on this.
Some say that those interested in the license can put in an application immediately and that within 6 months they will be competing for customers. Others say that part of the deal signed states that Mobi63 will have a year breathing space before a new competitor challenges.

Either way the minimum price for the license will be set at 320 million Euros. Telecom Austria has already stated its interest.

2006-07-28T20:08:00.000+02:00

Further details on the national strategy and what will go into the tourism sector.

The Minister of Tourism Vlajko Senic (SPO) announced today that the government will allocate 50 million EUR in tourism - 19 million this year and 31 million next.

The Serbian tourism industry generated a surplus of $14 million in the first half of the year.

Money will go towards promoting tourism abroad as well as to more specific projects such as securing new cableways at Mt Kopaonik and at other ski resorts. Further details on Belgrade specific projects will appear on the Belgrade Blog.

Incidentally I believe that Minister Senic has a very bright future in politics.

2006-07-27T20:53:00.000+02:00

Well until this blog moves into gear we're going to maintain the emphasis on economic issues.

In the next few days another odd economic indicator - negative monthly inflation for the period of July. Can Serbia manage single digit inflation this year?
Also the CEFTA agreement is worth a look. Economic union for the Balkans?

2006-07-25T19:36:00.000+02:00

An interesting and novel phenomenon in recent days has people scratching their heads.
Nobody can remember when the value of the dinar went up or at least maintained its value for a period perhaps Ante Markovic's government managed this feat.

All kinds of speculation going on, some are saying that the strength of the dinar has less to do with domestic factors and more to do with the weakness of the Euro. That casual observation is likely wide of the mark since the dinar is holding its own against the pound and the dollar too.
Others cynically maintain that the central bank of Serbia has been intervening to keep the value of the dinar high. Also unlikely since if the central bank was able to do this successfully it would have done it months or years ago.

Then you have some voices in business who have sounded the alarm that this is bad for the balance of payments situation - making imports cheaper and exports more expensive. Serbia is already in the red as far the export-import ratio is concerned they caution. This is a valid point although only if the value of the dinar is overpriced for lengthy period of time.

My take on the dinar situation differs from the cynics. It seems to me a positive development - for the first time in recent memory confidence has returned to the dinar and people are getting used to the idea of it appreciating and depreciating in value as normal currencies on world exchanges do. Many people in Serbia after receiving their wages in dinars immediately visit the exchange office thus further influencing the downward trend in value of the dinar but now they are thinking twice.

2006-07-24T21:12:00.000+02:00

So during this quiet period a post about the Serbian economy taken from an announcement made by the Serbian government recently.

The national investment strategy which so far has targeted the science sector has now been extended to the agriculture and energy sector. Other sectors such as education, health, judiciary and the environment (some money to tackle pollution) will also be included in the plan but details have yet to be put before parliament.
In total 17 sectors shall be included.

The value of the investment is expected to total just over a billion Euros. At least some of that money is expected to come from receipts of privatisation of state companies such as Vojvodjanska Banka and from the telephone company '063mobi' formerly owned by on the run tycoon Bogoljub Karic. The government is expected to net about 1.3 billion Euros from the sale of state companies this year.

All the details haven't been hammered out but 200 million EUR will be spent on improving the state of the roads and 150 million on building properties. The Tourism sector is expected to receive a 50 million boost - some of this money will go towards improving the investment potential of the Danube.

This is all very welcome - its commonly known that Serbia's infrastructure is poor owing to years of underinvestment. Its no surprise that even the monetarist inspired hawks at the IMF and other financial institutions aren't complaining about the potential inflationary impact of public spending. Although Serbian bank governor made a comment on a closely related issue in recent days - he says that economic growth or unemployment isn't his concern - inflation is. Professionalism to be applauded or a narrow vision of what economic policy is about?

2006-07-21T19:24:00.000+02:00

And so welcome to those who have reached this page - I have a feeling that it will be a tall order to match the popularity of some of the other Balkan Blogs. But the number of political type posts made on the Belgrade Blog in recent months has persuaded me of the need for this Serbia Blog. In fact this blog would have been created even without the continuing demand for Balkan intrigue, disagreement and so on.

A typical post might look like this - a translated (or English language) news report and then my own opinion on the topic.

Topics wont always be controversial cut and thrust though. And the idea at this blog isnt to desperately search for things that divide us. Quite the opposite. My conviction is that it is quite possible to hold diametrically opposing views and to still maintain respect and agreement on certain issues.