The Caucus Cooler

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2009-02-06T15:18:00.000-06:00

Predictions!!

2008-01-03T08:51:00.000-06:00

NOTE- We've decided to keep the predictions thread at the top of the page until the live blog starts tonight. So please scroll down for new content as the day wears on. Everything else will be posted chronologically below the Predictions thread. -CC

GAMEDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Our predictions are below, make yours in the comments section. The winner will receive the admiration of the Cooler staff.

GOP
Michael Dale Huckabee 31%
Willard Mitt Romney 28%
Fred Dalton Thompson 12%
John Sidney McCain 11%
Ronald Ernest Paul 9%
Rudolph William Louis Giuliani 7%
Duncan Lee Hunter 2%

Democrats
Barack Hussein Obama 29%
Johnny Reid Edwards 27%
Hillary Rodham Clinton 26%
Joseph Robinette Biden 9%
William Blaine Richardson 6%
Christopher John Dodd 2%
Dennis John Kucinich 1%

If you hear any rumblings that might be blog worthy, drop us a note at caucuscoolertipjar@gmail.com

More than likely we will be live-blogging the results and speeches starting sometime this evening. There's an even greater likelihood that if it happens it will be the Cooler's swansong, so don't miss it.

Anti Romney Dirty Tricks in IA

2008-01-03T08:48:00.000-06:00

Ambers has the deets.

Mr. Mo

2008-01-03T08:47:00.000-06:00

John McCain advisors are touting a MAJOR endorsement coming out of New Hampshire very soon. Imagine a McCain 3rd place finish and a Huckabee victory, followed by Fred Thompson and another big NH figure endorsing McCain between now and Tuesday. Talk about momentum!

And for bonus points, check out the Cooler's favorite son, Jon Seaton expertly lowering expectations. Atta boy JS.

McCain is shaping up shockingly well at this stage in the game.

80,000 is the magic number

2008-01-03T08:46:00.000-06:00

So says Doug Gross. Anymore than that will mean a big L for the Mittens.

Jeff Fuller is liveblogging with Mitten all day. Check it out.

Richardson to send 2nd Choicers to Obama

2008-01-03T08:45:00.000-06:00

Things are not looking up in Hillaryland right now.

I've put a spell on you

2008-01-03T08:37:00.001-06:00

If you would like to place a hex on one of the Presidential contenders, click here. (Can you guess who the Cooler hexed?)

Chuck Norris likes to talk about how many people Awshucksabee has killed.

For the best blogospheric coverage in Iowa outside of the Cooler, read O.K.

Will be back with more rumors and innuendo from the streets of Des Moines soon enough.

Report Live from Your Precinct Caucus

2008-01-03T08:05:00.000-06:00

Patrick Ruffini is starting a cool program, where he's asking Iowans to report on the happenings at their caucus so we in the blogosphere can get up-to-date information. Go here for details. Keep the cooler posted as well at caucuscoolertipjar@gmail.com or in the comments section on your bberry.

Final Line Change

2008-01-02T18:51:00.000-06:00

Its been a blast everybody.

The Favorite

Mike Huckabee- 10-9. Hard to see him being stopped in the Hawkeye tomorrow.

The Juggernaut

Mitt Romney- 3-1 Can his organization bring him an upset?

The Comeback Kid

John McCain- 9-1, SRSLY? From nowhere McCain has resurrected his campaign. Kudos to Roederer and crew.

The Lazy Conservative

Fred Thompon- 9-1 Coinflip with McCain for 3rd. His organization will have to make the difference. But why would they be motivated to when the candidate spent New Years Day on the couch?

The Nut

Ron Paul- 12-1. Apparently there is a bigger white supremacist, chritianist, anti-Iraq War, pro-gold standard crowd than we had realized in Iowa.

The Mystery Collapser

Rudy Giuliani- 12-1 The wheels came off at the wrong time.

The Other Guy

Duncan Hunter 98-1 I have nothing to say about him.

Back with our official R and D predictions in the AM.

Doug Gross on Turnout

2008-01-02T15:49:00.000-06:00

"If 50 percent of the turnout is evangelical Christians, it would be very difficult for us to finish first in that kind of situation,"

Glover with a must-must-must reader on which counties to watch tomorrow.

2008-01-02T15:47:00.001-06:00

It's $$$$

A Wakonda Sized Slam

2008-01-02T11:17:00.000-06:00

On Becky Beach's home turf.. the Wakonda Club... Ed Rollins unloads on Mitten.

"What I have to do is make sure that my anger with a guy like Romney, whose teeth I want to knock out, doesn't get in the way of my thought process."

Do yourself a favor and read the whole story..

Odds & Ends

2008-01-02T09:18:00.000-06:00

For those who are wondering, Band of Horses was unbelievable. 5 Stars from the Cooler.

As for 'Raucus' we got some funny reviews from y'all (Sounds like you were having a good time Kevin Cooney) and we'll incorporate them as we have time.

The Register poll is out, Obama and Huckabee are the favorites. But both races are tighter than a nuns... (nevermind this is a family blog).. McCain is rising and Thompson is falling in tier two. Ron Paul is doubling Giuliani.

Huckabee's bizarre"I've decided to not attack Mitt Romney on air in Iowa because I am such a great Christian man, but WAIT I am going to show the ad to the entire national press corps so you can write stories about it" press conference is one that the Cooler wishes we could have been at.

And Huck isn't afraid to have Walker, Texas Ranger take some pot shots at Mitten.

Be back with a final line change, and more later.

P.S. If you are a staffer, get off the blog and onto the telephone. Well unless you are a Huckabee staffer. Then kill sometime here.

Raucus!!!

2007-12-30T21:58:00.001-06:00

The Cooler will be partying with Band of Horses tomorrow night in Hotlanta. So we won't be able to liveblog from Raucus before the Caucus as we would like to.

But we KNOW that some reporter types are going to be inappropriately drunk. So, we are respectfully requesting you email any funny Raucus before the Caucus stories to caucuscoolertipjar@gmail.com. If your story is funny enough, we'll post it Tuesday morning. Anonymity guaranteed.

So don't get too hammered Ambers/Sidoti/Martin/Nagourney/Balz/Cameron because the Cooler will have its eyes on you. :)

Happy New Years everybody...

Poll Madness

2007-12-30T12:45:00.000-06:00

4 train days.... And if you know who's going to finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, well you know more than the experts do.

Poll #1- The one that matters. The Des Moines Register is currently in the field according to multiple sources. We will be hearing from them shortly. The results of this poll will to a large degree effect the expectations game going into caucus night.

Poll #2- The one that doesn't matter. Srsly, you might as well just poll the Machine Shed. But here it is anyway. Zogby has Huck with a 1 point lead over Mitten and McCain in 3rd.

Poll #3- MSNBC shows Romney leading by 4 over Huck, with Fred in 3rd... And Rudy a DISTANT 5th. Trendlines show Huckabee down 8 points from 3 weeks ago.

Poll #4- Does the date on this poll say 2007 or 2006? McCain leads the Rasmussen national poll for the first time in a LONG time.

Poll #5- A Lee Newspaper poll shows Huck with a 7 point edge over Mitt with Fred in 3rd.
Huck and Romney are both up a couple ticks from 3 weeks ago.

Poll #6- (Another POS polling firm, these guys were miserably off in 06). But for what its worth, KCCI has Huckabee with a 7 point lead as well over Mitt. Trendlines here also show Huck and Mitt up a few ticks.

Poll #7- This isn't a public poll after-all. More of a "buzz." The Cooler has heard about internal polling data from 2 camps that both show Huckabee with a very narrow lead, but higher intensity among supporters.

And if you think our race is crazy, nobody has got a freaking clue what's going to happen on the Democrat side.

Happy New Year everybody. The Cooler is making a one night jaunt to Hotlanta, so we'll be blogging live south of the Mason-Dixon line...

Chingy Would Be Proud

2007-12-28T10:03:00.000-06:00

Huckabee's now famous quote that he's "not a foreign policy expert, but he did stay at a Holiday Inn" now has a visual aide.

Above is a more youthful Awshucksabee preaching at...you guessed it... a Holiday Inn.

Luda, Chingy, and Snoop's thoughts on the subject here.

Politico picks up on Cooler story

2007-12-28T09:45:00.000-06:00

Vogel has the deets on Huckabee taking $$$ from stem cell/contraception groups.

Ambers is on it

2007-12-28T09:25:00.001-06:00

Two interesting Huckabee items from the "well-sourced" Harvard alum.

Prominent Awshucksabee supporters are emailing pastors in IA to encourage them to GOTV from the pulpit this Sunday. (Jefferson would be thrilled)

Awshucksabee thinks Pakistan is west of Afghanistan. It's not. But who cares right? After all he did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

New Poll

2007-12-28T08:26:00.000-06:00

LAT has Huckabee with a commanding lead in the Hawkeye.

Huck 37
Mitt 23

Line Change!

2007-12-28T08:06:00.001-06:00

Under a week until game day. To the big board!

1. Mike Huckabee- Up from 2-1 to 3-2. He's weathered the negative ad storm, the El Rushbo storm, the Bob Novak storm, the snarky blogger storm and he still maintains a lead. He's your favorite, no doubt about it.

2. Mitt Romney- Static at 3-1. Getting blasted for a week straight on WHO didn't help. But he's covered the airwaves, he's preparing his boffo political organization for turnoutpalooza. A surprise victory might just propel him to a win in New Hampshire and the nomination.

3. (tie) Fred Thompson- Up to 10-1. Big King endorsement, getting good press traveling the state, 3rd Place is up for grabs.

3. (tie) John McCain- Up to 10-1 He seems to be the guy with the mo. But the New Hampshire centric McCain operation (read: Dennehycentric) has up until this week left the guys in Iowa without much to work with from a resource persepective. Can they tie their shoestring organization together for a 3rd place "victory?"

3. (tie) Rudy Giuliani- Down to 10-1 What happened to the once national frontrunner? He still has some GOP heavies working the groundgame in the state, but he seems to have all but abandoned IA/NH/SC in a bewildering strategy.

6. Ron Paul- Up to 25-1. You can't deny the poll numbers. Would anyone be surprised if Paul beat out one of the three people listed above? Didn't think so.

7. Duncan Hunter- Up to 98-1 on the strength of his smart, funny, and attractive statewide co-chair.

Update- For nostalgia's sake, check out the Cooler line part 1 and 2 from August, 2006. Who's that guy in 3rd place?

Light Blogging

2007-12-27T16:15:00.000-06:00

Sorry all. Real job got in the way at CoolerHQ today.

Back with a line-change tomorrow.

In the meantime, check out The Real Sporer's review of the McCain event today, Barack's amazing speechifying, and JMart's piece on Mittens TV monsoon in the Hawkeye.

The Dean

2007-12-27T08:32:00.000-06:00

Can't imagine why you are at the Cooler if you haven't read Yepsen yet... But just in case... He has a great article today on what it means to win the bronze on Thursday..

Here in the final days, they've each realized that a third-place finish would give them a little boost into New Hampshire and the subsequent contests - and winnow out the fourth-, fifth- and sixth-place winners.In other words, there is a standby seat on the Republican plane. Welcome back, boys. We know you have many choices for your air travel. Thank you for flying Iowa.

John McCain for President

2007-12-26T09:36:00.000-06:00

Often it is the time that calls for a leader, not the other way around. You can see examples of this throughout our nation's rich history, when courageous leaders seized moments that perfectly suited their political assets and capabilities.

This moment calls out clearly and loudly for John Sidney McCain

Read the rest of the endorsement after the jump. Make sure to also note our anti-endorsement of Mike Huckabee in the last paragraph.

Gifts for All

2007-12-24T09:07:00.000-06:00

Before we at the Cooler open Santa's gifts, we'd like to take a moment to give 1 or 2 things to each of the remaining presidential contenders.

Mike Huckabee- Supply Side Policies, studies in economics and business and Norman Podhoretz "World War IV, the struggle against Islamo-fascism." Hopefully some of it will sink it. We're not crossing our fingers.

Mitt Romney- Pinnochio. Mitt still needs to learn how to act like a real boy.

John McCain- The only thing we'd like to give John McCain this year is a party that appreciates him. But in lieu of that, he could probably use a new copy of Pet Sounds or maybe a Complete Guide to Music by the Beach Boys.
Rudy Giuliani- What it Takes. Let history be a guide Rudy. Waiting til Feb 5th just ain't gonna work. Also we'd like to give him a bound, laminated copy of the Mitchell Report. How about those juiced up Yankees!

Fred Thompson- A years supply of Red Bull. And an end to the writer's strike. (He's going to need work pretty soon)

Duncan Hunter- Duncan Hunter is still in the race? Have some tube socks.

Ron Paul- What else? A black helicopter and a tin foil hat.

May the joy of the holiday season find each and every one of you.

We'll be back with an endorsement, more gossip, and the sprint to the finish on Wednesday.

Merry Christmas everybody. (We aren't afraid to say it either Gary Thies)

-CC

Quad City Times- Time for A Real Hero

2007-12-23T13:22:00.000-06:00

Boy the endorsements keep on rolling in for Governor Awshucksabee. Oh wait. Nevermind.

Another one for McCain.

But at this critical point in history, America can benefit from an honorable man with a hero's record. For Iowa's Republican caucuses, we support John McCain.