Electoral Panorama / Panorama Electoral

Chile page update

2009-11-16T14:47:00.008-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

Presidential and Legislative Elections in Chile now has constituency- and district-level results of Senate and Chamber of Deputies elections held in the South American country since 1989, as well as a description of the electoral system in place for the upcoming December 13 general election.

Actualización de la página de Chile

2009-11-16T14:47:00.007-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Elecciones Presidenciales y Legislativas en Chile cuenta ahora con los resultados a nivel de circuncripción y de distrito de las elecciones al Senado y la Cámara de Diputados celebradas en el país sudamericano desde 1989, así como una descripción del sistema electoral en vigor para las elecciones generales del próximo 13 de diciembre.

Elecciones México 2009: Distribución estimada de escaños

2009-07-07T00:30:00.003-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

A partir de los resultados preliminares de las elecciones congresionales celebradas en México el pasado domingo, la distribución de escaños en la Cámara de Diputados sería la siguiente: PRI, 237; PAN, 143; PRD, 71; PVEM, 21; PT, 13; PANAL, 9; C, 6.

El total estimado para el PRI se compone de 183 diputados electos por mayoría relativa (incluyendo a 46 en coalición con PVEM) y 54 por representación proporcional; normalmente, al PRI le corresponderían 79 escaños de lista, pero en dicho caso el partido terminaría con un total de 262 escaños, ó 52.4% del número total de diputados. Sin embargo, según la Constitución de México a ningún partido se le puede adjudicar una proporción de escaños en la Cámara que exceda su proporción del voto a nivel nacional por más de ocho puntos porcentuales, sin tomar en cuenta los votos nulos o los votos emitidos para partidos con menos de dos por ciento. Al haber obtenido un 39.5% de los votos emitidos para los siete partidos con al menos dos por ciento de los votos, el PRI solamente puede elegir 237 diputados, es decir un 47.4% del total de escaños.

Entre tanto, los estimados de escaños para el PVEM y el PT incluyen a cuatro y tres diputados por mayoría relativa, electos en coalición con el PRI y Convergencia, respectivamente.

Mexico Election 2009: Seat distribution estimate

2009-07-07T00:30:00.002-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

On the basis of preliminary results of last Sunday's congressional election in Mexico, the distribution of seats in the Chamber of Deputies would be as follows: PRI, 237; PAN, 143; PRD, 71; PVEM, 21; PT, 13; PANAL, 9; C, 6.

PRI's estimated total is composed of 183 deputies elected by first-past-the-post (including 46 in coalition with PVEM) and 54 by proportional representation; normally, PRI would be entitled to 79 list seats, but in that case the party would end up with a total of 262 seats, or 52.4% of the total number of deputies. However, according to the Constitution of Mexico no party can be awarded a proportion of Chamber seats exceeding its nationwide vote proportion by more than eight percentage points, disregarding invalid ballots or votes cast for parties with less than two percent. By having obtained 39.5% of the votes cast for the seven parties with at least two percent of the vote, PRI can only elect 237 deputies, that is 47.4% of the seat total.

Meanwhile, seat estimates for PVEM and PT include four and three first-past-the-post deputies, elected in coalition with PRI and Convergencia, respectively.

On India's election, and its economy

2009-05-18T23:19:00.004-04:00

Global Economy Matters now features two postings about India, which just held a general election. India's 2009 general election delivers a surprise outcome covers the vote in the world's largest democratically-ruled country, while Edward Hugh puts forward an intriguing question: Is The Indian Economy Heading For Its Finest Hour?

Eastern Europe update

2009-03-29T12:04:00.005-04:00

Bulgaria holds a parliamentary election this year, currently scheduled for June 14. Elections to the Bulgarian National Assembly has the results of legislative elections in Bulgaria since 1991, as well as an overview of Bulgaria's proportional representation electoral system.

Detailed election statistics are also available in Bulgarian Elections since 1991; the site's introductory pages are in Bulgarian, but results are available in both Bulgarian and English.

The Czech Republic's center-right coalition government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek collapsed last week after losing a parliamentary vote of confidence, and the Central European country will be holding an early legislative election this year, following an agreement between Topolánek, who heads the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), the largest party in Parliament, and Jiří Paroubek, the leader of the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), the main opposition party.

The election is expected to be held by October, but the actual date has not been determined yet. Parliamentary Elections in the Czech Republic - Elections to the Chamber of Deputies has an overview of the Czech electoral system, as well as lower house election results since 1996.

Update-on-the-update: Topolánek's toppling leads to early Czech election, on Global Economy Matters covers the ongoing cabinet crisis.

Hungarian Prime Minister Gyurcsány steps down - now what?, on Global Economy Matters covers the announced departure of Hungary's head of government.

Elections to the Hungarian National Assembly has a description of Hungary's complicated electoral system, as well as parliamentary election results since 1990.

Macedonia and Moldova go to the polls next April 5, the former for a presidential runoff election, the latter for parliamentary elections. Election links for both countries are available on Election Resources on the Internet: Central and Eastern Europe.

Montenegro holds an early parliamentary election today, eighteen months ahead of schedule. The Republic Electoral Commission has the results of the preceding 2006 general election in Montenegrin (Serbian).

Update-on-the-update: Montenegro's Republic Electoral Commission now has 2009 election results on its website.

Slovakia, which held a presidential election last March 21, returns to the polls next Saturday, April 4 for a runoff vote. Presidential and Legislative Elections in Slovakia has the results of national elections in Slovakia since 1994, and an overview of the Slovak electoral system, while Slovakia's 2009 presidential election, on Global Economy Matters has more information about this year's presidential vote.

Finally, Turkey holds local elections today that are seen as a referendum on the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. AKP narrowly avoided being outlawed last year, as detailed in Elections to the Turkish Grand National Assembly.

Update-on-the-update: Turkish newsdaily Hurriyet ("Liberty") has live 2009 election results in English and Turkish here; live results are also available in Turkish only on NTVMSNBC's Election 2009 website.

PSdeG-PSOE also wins an additional seat in the Galician Parliament

2009-03-10T09:52:00.009-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The Party of Galician Socialists (PSdeG-PSOE) has won an additional seat in the Galician Parliament after absentee votes were tallied in the province of Ourense (Orense), according to Spanish news media reports.

In the election to the Galician Parliament held at the beginning of this month, the Popular Party (PP) won the last of Ourense's fourteen seats with a quotient of 12,895 (for a total of eight mandates), while PSdeG-PSOE obtained four seats and attained a quotient of 12,833 for a fifth mandate. However, the Galician Socialists won 7,979 votes from Galician voters residing abroad to 6,465 for PP, which were more than enough to modify the preliminary seat allocation: PSdeG-PSOE only needed to obtain 311 additional votes, and then five votes for every eight won by PP.

As a result, the distribution of seats in the Galician Parliament now stands as follows:

PP - 38
PSdeG-PSOE - 25
BNG - 12

The loss of Ourense's last seat reduces PP's absolute majority to a single vote, while PSdeG-PSOE now has the same number of mandates it won four years ago.

Link (in Spanish): El voto emigrante da un quinto escaño al PSdeG

PSdeG-PSOE también consigue escaño adicional en el Parlamento de Galicia

2009-03-10T09:52:00.007-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

El Partido dos Socialista de Galicia (PSdeG-PSOE) ha conseguido un escaño adicional en el Parlamento de Galicia luego de que se contabilizara el voto ausente en la provincia de Ourense (Orense), según informes de los medios noticiosos de España.

En las elecciones al Parlamento de Galicia celebradas a principios de este mes, el Partido Popular (PP) consiguió el último de los catorce escaños de Ourense con un cociente de 12,895 (para un total de ocho mandatos), mientras que PSdeG-PSOE obtuvo cuatro escaños y alcanzó un cociente de 12,833 para un quinto mandato. Sin embargo, los socialistas gallegos consiguieron 7,979 votos de electores gallegos residentes en el extranjero frente a 6,465 para el PP, los cuales fueron más que suficientes para modificar el reparto preliminar de escaños: el PSdeG-PSOE solamente necesitaba obtener 311 votos adicionales, y entonces cinco votos por cada ocho que obtuviera el PP.

Como resultado, la distribución de escaños en el Parlamento de Galicia queda ahora de la siguiente manera:

PP - 38
PSdeG-PSOE - 25
BNG - 12

La pérdida del último escaño en Ourense reduce la mayoría absoluta del PP a un solo escaño, mientras que PSdeG-PSOE cuenta ahora con el mismo número de mandatos que obtuvo hace cuatro años.

Enlace: El voto emigrante da un quinto escaño al PSdeG

PSE-EE captures additional seat in Basque Parliament

2009-03-06T11:25:00.010-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The Spanish news media reports that the Socialist Party of Euskadi-Euskadi Left (PSE-EE/PSOE) has won an additional seat in the Basque Parliament, following today's tally of absentee votes in the province of Araba (Álava).

In last Sunday's election to the Basque Parliament, Basque Solidarity (EA) won the last of Araba's twenty-five seats with 5,267 votes, narrowly ahead of PSE-EE, which had a quotient of 5,266 for a ninth mandate. However, EA won only six votes from Basque voters residing abroad to 140 for PSE-EE, which divided by nine are more than enough to overcome EA's lead in the preliminary count.

According to Europa Press, the distribution of the CERA (absentee) vote in Araba was as follows:

EAJ/PNV - 146
PSE-EE/PSOE - 140
PP - 83
EB-B - 16
UPyD - 12
Aralar - 7
EA - 6
Others - 9

As a result, the distribution of seats in the Basque Parliament now stands as follows:

EAJ-PNV - 30
PSE-EE/PSOE - 25
PP - 13
Aralar - 4
EA - 1
EB-B - 1
UPyD - 1

The loss of Araba's seat is a fresh setback for the EA party, which lost its single seat in the Congress of Deputies in last year's general election in Spain, and now will be reduced to a single seat in the Basque Parliament (down from seven won four years ago in coalition with EAJ-PNV). But more importantly, Spain's two major parties - PSOE and PP - will command a joint majority of one vote in the Basque legislature, and PSE-EE leader Patxi López could form a government solely with PP support, without having to depend on the anti-nationalist Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD).

Link (in Spanish): El PSE-EE obtiene 140 votos de los residentes en el extranjero, frente a los 6 de EA

PSE-EE captura un escaño adicional en el Parlamento Vasco

2009-03-06T11:25:00.008-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Los medios noticiosos de España informan que el Partido Socialista de Euskadi-Euskadiko Ezkerra (PSE-EE/PSOE) ha conseguido un escaño adicional en el Parlamento Vasco, tras la contabilización en el día de hoy del voto ausente en la provincia de Araba (Álava).

En las elecciones al Parlamento Vasco del pasado domingo, Eusko Alkartasuna (EA) consiguió el último de los veinticinco escaños de Araba con 5,267 votos, escasamente al frente de PSE-EE, que tenía un cociente de 5,266 para un noveno mandato. Sin embargo, EA solamente obtuvo seis votos de electores vascos residentes en el extranjero frente a 140 para PSE-EE, los cuales divididos por nueve son más que suficientes para superar la ventaja de EA en el conteo preliminar.

Según Europa Press, la distribución del voto CERA en Araba quedó de la siguiente manera:

EAJ/PNV - 146
PSE-EE/PSOE - 140
PP - 83
EB-B - 16
UPyD - 12
Aralar - 7
EA - 6
Otros - 9

Como resultado, la distribución de escaños en el Parlamento Vasco queda ahora de la siguiente manera:

EAJ-PNV - 30
PSE-EE/PSOE - 25
PP - 13
Aralar - 4
EA - 1
EB-B - 1
UPyD - 1

La pérdida del escaño en Araba constituye un nuevo revés para EA, formación que perdió su único escaño en el Congreso de los Diputados en las elecciones generales celebradas en España el año pasado, y que ahora quedará reducida a un solo escaño en el Parlamento Vasco (de siete que obtuvo hace cuatro años en coalición con EAJ-PNV). Pero más importante aún, los dos partidos principales de España - el PSOE y el PP - ostentarán una mayoría conjunta de un voto en la legislatura vasca, y el líder del PSE-EE, Patxi López podría formar gobierno exclusivamente con el apoyo del PP, sin tener que depender de la anti-nacionalista Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD).

Enlace: El PSE-EE obtiene 140 votos de los residentes en el extranjero, frente a los 6 de EA

Elections in Galicia and the Basque Country

2009-02-18T12:55:00.005-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The self-governing communities of Galicia and the Basque Country (Euskadi), located in northwestern and northern Spain, respectively, go to the polls on Sunday, March 1^st, 2009, to elect their devolved legislatures. The results of autonomic elections held in Galicia from 1981 to 2009 and in Euskadi from 1980 to 2009, as well as an overview of the Galician and Basque proportional representation electoral systems are now available in Elections to the Galician Parliament and Elections to the Basque Parliament.

The 2009 Basque Parliament election will be the first autonomic poll in which radical nationalist parties linked to the ETA terrorist group won't participate. I have written a commentary on the topic for the Hotline section of JURIST, the University of Pittsburgh School of Law blog, under Spain's ban on radical nationalist Basque parties adds unpredictability to March election.

Finally, the list of Spain election resources now includes a link to the Elections to the Galician Parliament 2009 official website, available in Galician and Spanish.

Elecciones en Galicia y el País Vasco

2009-02-18T12:55:00.004-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Las comunidades autónomas de Galicia y el País Vasco (Euskadi), situadas en el noroeste y el norte de España, respectivamente, acuden a las urnas el domingo, 1^ro de marzo de 2009 para elegir sus legislaturas autonómicas. Los resultados de las elecciones autonómicas celebradas en Galicia de 1981 a 2009 y en Euskadi de 1980 a 2009, así como una breve exposición de los sistemas electorales de representación proporcional gallego y vasco están ahora disponibles en Elecciones al Parlamento de Galicia y Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco.

Las elecciones al Parlamento Vasco de 2009 serán la primera consulta autonómica en la cual no participarán partidos nacionalistas radicales vinculados al grupo terrorista ETA. He redactado un comentario en inglés sobre este asunto para la sección Hotline de JURIST, el blog de la Escuela de Derecho de la Universidad de Pittsburgh, bajo Spain's ban on radical nationalist Basque parties adds unpredictability to March election.

Finalmente, la lista de recursos electorales de España incluye ahora un enlace a la web oficial de las Elecciones al Parlamento de Galicia 2009, disponible en gallego y español.

2009 Israeli general election results

2009-02-11T01:57:00.005-04:00

As of February 12, 2009, the results of Tuesday's general election in Israel and the distribution of Knesset seats stand as follows:

Kadima - 758,032 votes (22.5%), 28 seats
Likud - 729,054 votes (21.6%), 27 seats
Yisrael Beitenu - 394,577 votes (11.7%), 15 seats
Labor Party - 334,900 votes (9.9%), 13 seats
Shas - 286,300 votes (8.5%), 11 seats
United Torah Judaism - 147,954 votes (4.4%), 5 seats
United Arab List-Ta'al - 113,954 votes (3.4%), 4 seats
National Union - 112,570 votes (3.3%), 4 seats
Hadash - 112,130 votes (3.3%), 4 seats
New Movement-Meretz - 99,611 votes (3.0%), 3 seats
Jewish Home (Habayit Hayehudi) - 96,765 votes (2.9%), 3 seats
National Democratic Assembly (Balad) - 83,739 votes (2.5%), 3 seats
Others - 103,904 votes (3.1%), no seats

The Israeli Knesset has full 2009 election results here (in Hebrew), while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has the distribution of Knesset seats (in English).

On Latvian parliamentary elections, past and future

2009-02-04T20:29:00.004-04:00

Is Latvia still headed for an early election?, on Global Economy Matters (and cross-posted on Latvia Economy Watch and Baltic Economy Watch) reviews current political developments in the Baltic republic, where the four-party coalition government of Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis prevailed today in a parliamentary vote of confidence.

Meanwhile, Part I of Elections to the Latvian Saeima (Parliament) is now available, with an overview of Latvia's proportional representation system and the results of the 1998, 2002 and 2006 parliamentary elections; I also reviewed Latvian politics two years ago in 2006 Parliamentary Elections in Latvia.

Elections to the Israeli Knesset

2009-02-01T00:20:00.003-04:00

Israel goes to the polls in nine days for an early parliamentary election, and Elections to the Israeli Knesset has an overview of the Jewish state's proportional representation electoral system, along with nationwide results of Knesset elections from 1992 to 2006.

El Salvador's quirky proportional representation system

2009-01-29T20:20:00.006-04:00

Matthew Shugart's Fruits and Votes blog has an in-depth discussion on the unusual behavior of the proportional representation system used in El Salvador, which held a legislative election last January 18.

The 84 members of the Central American nation's unicameral Legislative Assembly are chosen by the largest remainder method of PR in fourteen multi-member constituencies - the departments of El Salvador. However, the system often works to the advantage of smaller parties, particularly the right-wing National Conciliation Party (PCN), which elected eleven deputies (13.1% of the total) with just 8.8% of the vote. Meanwhile, the country's two major parties - the ruling, conservative Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) and the left-wing opposition Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) - ended up slightly under-represented in the Assembly.

In response to Prof. Shugart's suggestion about distributing Assembly seats by the D'Hondt rule, I calculated the notional distribution of Legislative Assembly seats under that procedure as well as other PR methods, and the results are actually quite surprising.

Incidentally, El Salvador's recently held poll was a warm-up act for the upcoming presidential election, scheduled to be held next March 15.

The sharp decline of Puerto Rico's voter turnout rate

2009-01-07T12:55:00.001-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The decline of Puerto Rico's voter turnout rate has accelerated following the 2008 election, but official statistics do not show the full scope of the problem.

The Commonwealth Elections Commission (CEE) reports that 1,942,931 out of 2,458,036 registered voters took part in the general election held last November 4, for a 79% voter turnout rate - a figure that not only stands 2.7% below the 81.7% that turned out to vote in the 2004 election, but also constitutes the fourth consecutive decline in turnout since 1992.

However, the CEE statistics don't take into account voting-age individuals who aren't registered, which represent a growing share of the population of Puerto Rico aged 18 years or older. In 2000 the voter registration rate - the percentage of the voting-age population registered to take part in election processes - stood at 90.1%, but this figure dropped to 85.6% in 2004, and to 82.7% in 2008. According to the 2008 population estimates released last December by the U.S. Census Bureau, Puerto Rico had 2,971,764 individuals aged 18 years or older, and therefore the voting-age population turnout rate for the 2008 election was just 65.4%, or 4.6% lower than in the 2004 election, in which the electorate that voted according to the official rolls constituted 70% of Puerto Rico's voting-age population.

In fact, the voter turnout rate for the population aged 18 years or older is not just markedly lower than the turnout figure for registered voters, but the gap separating both figures is widening, due to the collapse of the voter registration rate. Although the CEE has acknowledged that voter turnout in 2008 finished below its expectations, the agency has so far ignored the far more serious problem regarding the growing number of voting-age individuals that aren't registered; on the contrary, last September the Commission sought to present the small increase in the total number of registered voters (relative to the 2004 election) as a huge success.

Finally, it must be noted that while the turnout rate of Puerto Rico's voting-age population remains higher than that for the U.S. proper, the difference has shrunk dramatically over the course of this decade. In 2000, 74.2% of Puerto Rico's population aged 18 years or older voted in the general election, while in the United States only 51.2% turned out to vote, for a difference of twenty-three percentage points. However, 56.8% of the voting-age population took part in the U.S. 2008 general election, which is just 8.6% lower than in Puerto Rico.

El pronunciado declive de la tasa de participación electoral en Puerto Rico

2009-01-07T12:55:00.000-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

El declive de la tasa de participación electoral en Puerto Rico se ha acelerado tras las elecciones de 2008, pero las estadísticas oficiales no revelan el alcance del problema en su totalidad.

La Comisión Estatal de Elecciones (CEE) informa que 1,942,931 de 2,458,036 electores inscritos votaron en las elecciones generales celebradas el pasado 4 de noviembre, para una tasa de participación electoral de 79% - cifra que no solamente se sitúa 2.7% por debajo del 81.7% que acudió a votar en 2004, sino que también constituye el cuarto declive consecutivo de la tasa de participación desde 1992.

Sin embargo, las estadísticas de la CEE no toman en cuenta a las personas con edad para votar que no se inscriben, las cuales representan una porción creciente de la población de Puerto Rico de 18 años o más. En 2000 la tasa de inscripción electoral - el porciento de la población con edad para votar que está inscrito para participar en los procesos electorales - se situaba en 90.1%, pero esta cifra cayó a 85.6% en 2004 y a 82.7% en 2008. De acuerdo con los estimados de población para 2008 publicados el pasado mes de diciembre por el Negociado del Censo de los E.E.U.U., Puerto Rico contaba con 2,971,764 personas de 18 años de edad o más, y por lo tanto la tasa de participación electoral de personas con edad para votar en las elecciones de 2008 fue de solamente 65.4%, ó un 4.6% menos que en las elecciones de 2004, en las cuales el electorado que votó según lista constituyó el 70% de los habitantes de Puerto Rico con edad para votar.

De hecho, la tasa de participación electoral para la población de 18 años o más no solamente es marcadamente inferior a la cifra de participación para los electores inscritos, sino que la brecha que separa a ambas cifras se está ampliando, debido al colapso de la tasa de inscripción. Aunque la CEE ha reconocido que la participación electoral en 2008 quedó por debajo de sus expectativas, hasta la fecha la agencia ha ignorado el problema mucho más serio en torno al número creciente de personas con edad para votar que no están inscritos; por el contrario, en septiembre del año pasado la Comisión procuró presentar el reducido aumento del total de electores inscritos (con respecto a las elecciones de 2004) como un gran éxito.

Finalmente, debe señalarse que si bien la tasa de participación de la población de Puerto Rico con edad para votar sigue siendo mayor que la correspondiente a los E.E.U.U. propiamente dichos, la diferencia se ha reducido dramáticamente en el transcurso de esta década. En 2000, el 74.2% de la población de Puerto Rico de 18 años o más votó en las elecciones generales, mientras que en Estados Unidos solamente acudió a votar el 51.2%, para una diferencia de veintitrés puntos porcentuales. Sin embargo, el 56.8% de la población con edad para votar participó en las elecciones generales de 2008 en los E.U.U.U., lo cual es solamente un 8.6% menos que en Puerto Rico.

Federal Elections in the United States of America

2008-10-19T20:52:00.002-04:00

I'm very pleased to announce that Part I of Federal Elections in the United States of America is now online, with the results of the 1996, 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, as well as state-level general election maps for presidential, U.S. Senate and House of Representatives elections since 1996 (which include 2000-2006 Senate and House election maps originally published in this blog for the 2006 mid-term election).

Speaking of election maps, I would like to note that for House of Representatives elections, map colors are determined according to the number of seats, not votes; the latter are only used to break ties in the number of seats. Thus, in the 2006 election both Arizona and Mississippi had equal party representation in the House, but the Republican Party won a majority of the popular vote in these two states, and consequently both appear red on the map. Incidentally, I use the exact same procedure for other countries' election maps.

Elecciones Presidenciales y Legislativas en Chile

2008-10-05T16:16:00.006-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Me complace anunciar la publicación de la primera parte de Elecciones Presidenciales y Legislativas en Chile, que presenta los resultados de las elecciones generales celebradas en el país sudamericano a partir de 1989.

Por cierto, hoy se cumple el vigésimo aniversario del referéndum del 5 de octubre de 1988, en el cual el pueblo chileno rechazó la continuación del mandato presidencial del Gen. Augusto Pinochet hasta 1997. Chile's democratic restoration, two decades on, en Global Economy Matters presenta una breve exposición en inglés sobre la transición de Chile a la democracia.

Presidential and Legislative Elections in Chile

2008-10-05T16:16:00.004-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

I'm pleased to announce the publication of Part I of Presidential and Legislative Elections in Chile, which presents the results of general elections held in the South American country since 1989.

By the way, today's the twentieth anniversary of the October 5, 1988 referendum, in which the people of Chile rejected the continuation of Gen. Augusto Pinochet's presidential mandate until 1997. Chile's democratic restoration, two decades on, on Global Economy Matters, has a brief overview of Chile's transition to democracy.

Electoral upheavals in Austria and Bavaria

2008-09-28T19:51:00.004-04:00

Austria's two major parties emerged from Sunday's early parliamentary election in the Central European country with their worst election results since 1945. Both the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) and the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) - which had ruled Austria in a grand coalition government for a year-and-a-half - lost ground with respect to the previous election, but Sunday's vote was a further major setback for the People's Party, coming on top of heavy losses in the 2006 legislative election, and the center-right party's gains since 1999 have now been completely wiped out. On the other hand, the Social Democrats had less severe losses, and the left-of-center party was able to top the poll once more.

Meanwhile, the election's big winners were the country's two far-right parties, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ), the latter a 2005 FPÖ breakaway. Running separately, the two parties nearly doubled their combined share of the vote, which soared from 15.1% in 2006 to 29% this year - a figure which also stands above the FPÖ's best-ever result of 26.9% in 1999. In fact, other than for the division of the far-right vote between FPÖ and BZÖ, the outcome of this year's vote closely resembles that of the 1999 parliamentary election, and it is far from clear what kind of government will emerge from the election.

Federal Elections in Austria - Elections to the Nationalrat (National Council) has federal- and state-level results of parliamentary elections in Austria since 1945, including preliminary 2008 general election results.

Austria's SPÖ and ÖVP were not the only ruling parties to be humbled at the polls on Sunday. Just across the border, Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) lost its absolute majority in the Landtag (state legislature) for the first time since 1962. However, the CSU - the Bavarian counterpart of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - remains the largest party in Germany's wealthiest state, and barring an unlikely alliance of the four opposition parties that will be represented in the new Landtag - namely the Social Democrats (SPD), the Free Voters, the Greens and the Free Democrats (F.D.P.) - it's likely to remain in power in Munich, possibly in coalition with the liberal F.D.P., which secured Landtag representation for the first time since 1990.

The Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing has detailed results in German of Sunday's state election here.

Ukraine's government falls, another early election a possibility

2008-09-16T14:07:00.006-04:00

Less than nine months after coming to power, Ukraine's fragile, pro-western coalition government has collapsed, following months of wrangling between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. While the latter is expected to remain as caretaker head of government, she has only 30 days to cobble a new coalition cabinet; otherwise, the president may call an early parliamentary election - Ukraine's third in as many years.

The ruling coalition's collapse was triggered by differences between the president and the prime minister over support for Georgia during its recent conflict with Russia, which in due course led Ukraine's Supreme Council (Parliament) to pass laws curtailing the president's powers; Yushchenko regards these laws - which were adopted with the support of the opposition, pro-Russian Party of Regions - as a parliamentary "coup."

The clash between Yushchenko and Tymonshenko is by no means the first - three years ago, he fired her and the entire cabinet on grounds of incompetence, following a period of increasingly bitter in-fighting - and it's unlikely to be the last: Mrs. Tymoshenko is widely expected to run in the next presidential election (to be held in 2009 or 2010), and opinion polls have her in a tight race with Party of Regions leader Vyktor Yanukovych, while President Yushchenko is trailing far behind.

Ukraine holds an early parliamentary election, at Global Economy Matters covers the parliamentary election of September 2007 in the Eastern European country, and includes a comprehensive review of political developments in Ukraine since the former Soviet republic declared its independence in 1991.

Update

On October 8, 2008, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko dissolved the Supreme Council and called an early parliamentary election, which will be held next December 7. However, Prime Minister Tymoshenko's Bloc subsequently filed a lawsuit to stop the election, and on Saturday, October 11, Kiev's District Administrative Court suspended the presidential decree that dissolved Parliament and called the early election. Meanwhile, President Yushchenko insists the order has no authority since he fired the judge before he handed down the ruling, and the matter is now in the hands of Kiev's Appeals Court.

The political tug-of-war between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko comes in the middle of a global financial crisis, and as Edward Hugh writes on Global Economy Matters, Ukraine Wobbles As The Financial Ground Beneath It Trembles.

Early elections in Canada and (possibly) Japan

2008-09-08T00:18:00.003-04:00

As expected, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called an early parliamentary election for next October 14. Harper, who has been in power since January 2006, heading a Conservative Party minority government, hopes to secure an absolute House of Commons majority in the upcoming general election - Canada's third in five years.

Federal Elections in Canada - Elections to the House of Commons describes Canada's electoral system, and includes results of Canadian general elections since 1993.

Meanwhile, Forbes.com reports that Japan may also be heading for an early parliamentary election, following the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda earlier this month. Although the ruling Liberal Democratic Party commands a large majority in the House of Representatives - the lower house of Japan's bicameral Parliament - the opposition parties have held a majority of seats in the House of Councillors - the upper house - since July of last year, and the two legislative bodies have clashed over a number of issues.

Parliamentary Elections in Japan has an overview of the Japanese electoral system, with election results since 1996 for both the House of Councillors and the House of Representatives.

La controversia sobre las papeletas electorales en inglés de Puerto Rico

2008-08-24T08:32:00.009-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Dos norteamericanos que residen en Puerto Rico pero que no hablan español han radicado un pleito ante el Tribunal Federal para que se le ordene a la Comisión Estatal de Elecciones (CEE) imprimir papeletas en inglés para las elecciones generales del próximo 4 de noviembre.

Al presente, la Comisión imprime papeletas e instrucciones de votación para las elecciones generales solamente en español, la lengua hablada por la abrumadora mayoría de los cuatro millones de habitantes de la isla caribeña (aunque en 2000 la Comisión llegó a imprimir una papeleta en ambos idiomas para la elección presidencial cancelada). De hecho, el pasado mes de abril la CEE discutió el asunto, pero los comisionados electorales que representan a los cuatro partidos políticos inscritos en Puerto Rico no pudieron llegar a un acuerdo, y en julio el presidente de la CEE, Ramón Gómez determinó que no es un requerimiento la impresión de las papeletas también en inglés, toda vez que no existe ninguna ley o reglamentación a esos fines.

En la demanda radicada se observa que de acuerdo a las estadísticas de idioma del Censo 2000 - que se calcularon a partir de una muestra de 1 en 6 en lugar de un conteo al 100% - el 14.4% de la población de Puerto Rico con cinco años de edad o más habla inglés solamente. Sin embargo, debe señalarse que en épocas recientes ha habido variaciones significativas en las cifras sobre la población exclusivamente anglófona de Puerto Rico ofrecidas por el Negociado del Censo de los E.E.U.U. De hecho, las estadísticas más recientes de la Encuesta sobre la Comunidad de Puerto Rico de 2006 del Negociado del Censo indican que poco menos de un 4.7% de los habitantes de Puerto Rico hablan solamente inglés, mientras que un 95.2% habla español. Estas cifras se aproximan bastante a las estadísticas de los censos de 1980 y 1990, las cuales indican que el 98.2% de la población de Puerto Rico hablaba español - mientras que casi tres cuartas partes del restante 1.8% no hablaba español ni inglés.

Los demandantes también plantean que en Puerto Rico tanto el inglés como el español son idiomas oficiales. No obstante, tras 110 años bajo la bandera estadounidense, el español sigue siendo la lengua dominante; la zona metropolitana de San Juan es más o menos bilingüe, pero el resto de Puerto Rico es casi exclusivamente hispanoparlante. De hecho, para el 2006, solamente una minoría reducida (15.1%) de la población hispanoparlante de Puerto Rico hablaba el inglés "muy bien," y muchos puertorriqueños - incluyendo a un gran número de empleados de gobierno - hablan muy poco o nada de inglés. Más aún, los partidos políticos de Puerto Rico siempre han llevado a cabo sus campañas electorales exclusivamente en español.

Dado que las cifras recientes de la Encuesta sobre la Comunidad de Puerto Rico de 2006 ponen en tela de juicio los anteriores hallazgos en materia de idioma del Censo 2000, no está claro si verdaderamente existe la necesidad de implantar papeletas electorales en inglés - al menos a nivel de todo Puerto Rico - pero los tribunales puede que decidan lo contrario.

Enlace: Quieren papeletas en inglés

Actualización

El 27 de agosto de 2008, el juez federal José Fusté ordenó a la CEE tener disponibles papeletas bilingües para las elecciones generales que se avecinan. El comisionado electoral del Partido Popular Democrático apeló la decisión, pero el 4 de septiembre la Corte del Primer Circuito de Apelaciones de los E.E.U.U. desestimó la apelación.

Enlace: "Yes" a las papeleta bilingüe