Rockin' the Red

My Apologies

2009-10-15T09:23:00.003-05:00

I explain why it's my fault why we got eliminated.

I admit it. I take full credit for what happened in the past week. Heck, I take credit for what's happened over the past month. Since I stopped blogging the Cards went 13-16 (.448)... well... technically 13-19 if you include the charade of a playoff run we attempted in LA. When Rockin' the Red was kickin', the BlogBirds went a healthy 78-56 (.582) and were the team to beat. I pretty much left off while the Dave Duncan drama-party was still in fashion, and, although that storyline has seemed to pass faster than Tony Romo passing on Britney Spears before Jessica Simpson, it still feels very awkward to witness how the season ended.

There's not a greater word to describe the ending, I feel, other than awkward. You can awkwardly meet an ex-girlfriend in the grocery store line. You can awkwardly pee in your pants on a school bus. You can awkwardly get hit in the crotch while trying to catch a fly ball to send the series back to St. Louis. You can awkwardly leave post-season play in three-straight, after being the heavy favorite and selling a good deal of the farm to assume so much.

I wish I had a great motivational speech to stir about optimism within our hearts and make us feel good again, but, alas, it's still a little awkward and I don't know if I'm ready to go down that road just yet.

Twitter Tuesday: Reactions on Dave Duncan

2009-09-01T08:01:00.003-05:00

It's time for another installment of Twitter Tuesdays, this time covering the speculation and reactions surrounding Dave Duncan and his future with the Cardinals.

Get to da choppa!

@bencollins01 The Joel Pineiro Cy Young campaign starts here: http://alturl.com/57bj and if Dave Duncan is leaving the Cards, #Mets please sign him up

I'm kind of confused by this fan's allegiances.

@bencollins01 and then maybe Dave Duncan can turn Oliver Perez into an actual $12M pitcher

I'm sorry to say that Oliver Perez is very much the anti-Dave Duncan - 0.69 career GB/FB, stubborn, home run prone, etc. Heck, while we're at it, let's turn Tim Redding into the next Woody Williams too.

@throatwarbler For the record - I would like to see Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan return for 2010. #stlcards Best tandem since Herzog/Roarke

Let's not kid ourselves. TLR/DD have been better. Controversial, but true. I smell a research topic.

@injuryexpert RT @BaseballStone: The two top free agents are tony La Russa and dave duncan. Duncan is still smarting about the way his son was traded.

Matt Holliday begs to differ.

@JohnLGoodman Wonder what Dave Duncan thinks of the Joba Rules?????

But I wanna know what he tinks of Wainwight Wules... :(

@briansalgado Are Cubs the next stop? RT @BaseballStone: 2 top FAs, tony La Russa & dave duncan. Duncan still smarting about way his son was traded

What? Your precious Lou Pinella not good enough for you?

@PRINCE_OF_NY The growing possibility that Dave Duncan might leave the Cardinals. (The Mets should open the checkbook.)

Ah, the checkbook. Fitting thing for a Prince of New York to say. How did that turn out with Rick Peterson? Ok, just checking. Say, who named you the prince anyway?

@aboutfiftymillionotherpostswantinghimtocometoNewYork ...

Seriously, some fans will jump on any bandwagon they can and throw money at their problems like it's candy. No, Dave Duncan will not go to New York. It's a good possibility that Duncan could leave at the end of the season, but I have a suspicion that winning will play a factor in the end.

Summary: what Dave Duncan giveth, he can taketh away. Or something like that.

Dave Duncan is Mad

2009-08-31T08:00:00.004-05:00

The schism between Dave Duncan and everybody else is getting bigger, and it could lead to his departure at the end of the season.

I realize that the posting schedule here has been a little erratic here lately, and I apologize for not having fresh, relevant content for you to read each morning as you "work" or, like me, "study." Truth is, school and life comes first, even in the midst of one of the strongest Cardinals ballclubs in the past decade, and I'm still trying to get as much in order as a college kid can.

I did want to comment on the new drama that's erupted on a, for the most part, drama-less team. The schism that's appearing between Dave Duncan and the Cardinals seems like it's widening, and there seem to be many to blame but none at fault for the divide.

Joe Strauss writes for the P-D:

[Dave Duncan] is angry — publicly so at a St. Louis media he believes stoked last month's trade of his outfielder son Chris to the Boston Red Sox and, until now, privately at a franchise that has created a minor-league pitching philosophy independent of his and bullpen coach Marty Mason's input.

The latter half of that statement is, what I believe, will be the undoing of Dave Duncan, much more so than the exile of his son. Duncan's disapproval is great enough that Strauss writes that many believe it is a "precursor to him leaving after this season, " which "only gained steam last week when Duncan asked general manager John Mozeliak for a one-day leave of absence upon the team's return from a 5-2 West Coast trip to address "personal business."

In short, Dave Duncan is unhappy about two things - the way his son was treated by the organization and its fanbase, and the way he's being usurped by the FO in pitcher development. Sadly, I don't really see this finding a happy ending, as Duncan has been quick to call the media's bluff but never has criticized his own organization quite as much as he has recently.

I do believe that Chris Duncan always did carry the burden of being a coach's son, but the nonsense of him being "unfairly treated" is overblown. Tony La Russa mentions Duncan's '06 stretch as something to give Chris credibility, but for the past year and a half, Duncan has had almost zero value. That's not an exaggeration, his Runs Above Replacement (RAR) in '08 was 0.7 and this year was -3.3. In the same way that Jason Isringhausen was escorted out, in the same way Jim Edmonds was escorted out, Chris Duncan was treated just like all the others.

There was a variety of reasons why Chris was traded, including the fact that he would be due for arbitration next year, and trading him now brought the bounty of Julio Lugo for a year and a half, with his entire $13.5 million remaining salary paid for by Boston. Lugo alone has played at a 4.4 RAR level in just his time in St. Louis. Best of all, his acquisition gives us a ton of leverage next year.

The trade was a really, really good one, especially now since Chris was released by Boston a week ago and could be had for free. Chris, in fact, was given the benefit of a doubt for almost two years. It's apparent he was injured, and more should have been done by all parties to address it. It was a wonder that he was even able to start playing again after his surgery, but his refusal to acknowledge that there was something wrong - doing so would probably have won him even more credibility - and the club's refusal to force it down on him, left everyone involved as a reason his lack of performance wasn't justified.

I'm sure I'm generalizing the situation a lot from the complexities that factor into it, but the constant complaining that Chris Duncan was undone by the organization and its fans is annoying and untrue. If Duncan was hurt, he should have said so. If he wasn't hurting, then his performance truly was terrible and should have been replaced, like he was.

All in all, it's a hairy situation, and I hope we don't lose Dave Duncan, one of the greatest pitching coaches of all-time, because of it.

5 Things I've Learned at School

2009-08-27T08:33:00.003-05:00

I know this is very un-Cardinal-related, but I thought I'd share a few pointers I've learned during my first week of school. Heck, I'm sure the locker room is like this. Just pretend it's Colby Rasmus writing home to his mom after his first week in St. Louis.

What I've learned in my first week back in college, living in a all-male dorm.

1. Guys are green. The "if it's yellow, let it mellow; if it's brown, flush it down" is a rule most live by in the house. Unfortunately, that last phrase gets neglected sometimes. Which makes me wonder: how do you forget to do that? Did you have a pressing business meeting and forget your TPS report in your car? No, you are a lazy college student with a propensity to leave the scene of the crime without cleaning up the evidence.

2. Don't expect to get studying done in your room, especially if you have a TV. A.) Unless you can study to T.I. and 'Lil Wayne spitting beats on money and girls with booties the size of a yoga ball (pretty big), or Andy Sandberg attempting to explain to us that he is indeed not on land, you're pretty much screwed. B.) With ESPN always an option right in front of you, especially with the Little League World Series on, you're double screwed. Eventually you end up as a rapping kid-watcher who doesn't know how to operate a solid investment strategy. Trust me, you do.

3. No matter how much you attempt to keep your room organized, you won't. As an obsessive-compulsive, anal-retentive person, I need to have things stay the way they are, where I put them. Then you get some papers from every single organization on campus. Then you get free cups with coupons that expire in a week and little highlighters that you aren't quite sure if you'll use but are too afraid that you might be able to find a use for them that you don't know where to put. Then you have clothes that you are too lazy to put in a hamper. All of a sudden, it looks like a F-5 tornado hit your room, complete with DOROTHY's little metal balls used to calculate it's pattern. Sadly, my room is one of the cleaner ones.

4. You are free to walk around in your boxers as much as you'd like. No girls means you can live like a caveman. Unfortunately, there's those people that take this PRIVILEGE too much like a right and begin to exploit it to it's boundaries. It's almost as if when you put a group of guys together, we try to revert as closely to being cavemen as we possibly can without finding weapons and fighting for space on the couch. Eh, sometimes that happens too. *raises hand* Guilty.

5. Drama is a fictitious apparition brought about by intertwining men and women together. Out here, in the outback of all-male living, drama does not exist. It's almost as if there could be, but we simply are too lazy to let it become drama. In this secluded part of society, men are men. If you wronged me, I tell you. If I wronged you, you tell me. Crisis averted, and we all can go back to solving bigger problems in life, like finding out the culprit in number one.

6. It's fun. If you haven't lived in all-gender housing at one point in your life, I hope you can experience it sometime. I'm sure I'll get sick of it by next week, but, until then, I have to go figure out where that smell is coming from.

Twitter Tuesday: Smoltz and More

2009-08-25T08:19:00.004-05:00

I'm starting a new series here to help break the monotony of the week, called Twitter Tuesdays. I'll look for interesting, funny, or informative Cards-related Twitter posts around the interweb and post them here. Call it getting a feel for the buzz of Cardinal Nation, to put it in ESPN terms. Ah, social media networking at its finest.

Let's get the ball rolling:

@tpriddy Was John Smoltz's sudden success Sunday with the Cards because he stopped tipping pitches to opposing batters? http://tinyurl.com/npu44l

TLR thinks it's "pretty clear" that Smoltz was tipping his pitches. John Smoltz doesn't tip pitches; he just lets the batter know what's coming out of mercy.

@thisisronney Wait, John Smoltz..its ALIVE!..ITS ALIVE! I believe D man still got some gasoline in 'em. I support D Hall of Famer, St.LCards looking good.

Scientists have proven that 99% of the world's energy resources could be provided by the velocity of John Smoltz's fastball. He was merely taking a break to let them test it.

@blog4democracy Happy debut for Smoltz; Vick's is next: Once upon a time, they were three of Atlanta's most hugged athletes. Wha.. http://bit.ly/caaj5

Just don't let Vick hug your dog.

@JimmyDPHI I'm so glad I live in a world where John Smoltz is good again.

John Smoltz can affect our perspectives on the world. Point proven.

@BeantownSports And for those of you thinking "Why can't we get guys like that" after Smoltz's Cards debut, he allowed 31 ER in his last 31 IP for the Sox!

... maybe because he hated playing there.

@BeantownSports St. Louis ... where Red Sox castoffs go to flourish (Pineiro, Lugo, Smoltz...)

Perhaps Boston should be rethinking their "castoffs." No, no, no. Gut reaction is waaaaaaaaaay easier.

@AScorpioPassion Just to let everybody know Long time NL Pitchers can't pitch in the AL,Look at Smoltz he was Horrible in the AL but in the NL he's good

Yeah.. man. I feel ya, man. Totally. Look at freakin' Josh Beckett. He sucks, man. Freakin' sucks.

@Center_Field New post: F You, John Smoltz (http://cli.gs/Ez7J4) #redsox

I guess I'm no longer invited to the Christmas party?

That's all I got today. And remember, you stay classy, Boston.

Don't Call It a Comeback

2009-08-24T08:09:00.009-05:00

It's been John Smoltz week over here, and we're not about to stop now. Dissecting the first start from the ex-Bostonian, ex-Atlantan, but definitely not ex-Good Pitcher.

If only for one start, John showed us what it's like to have a capable pitcher pitching at the back-end of the rotation. My initial observations showed - forgive the cliche - a pitcher who truly knows how to pitch (at this point I just spilled yogurt on my keyboard. yep, i'm a college kid), and not in the way Al Hrabosky might bandy about pitcher X because he throws more than a fastball. Smoltz still has incredible movement on his pitches; he knows how to make his pitches do what he wants, a trait that the entire 5th rotation spot has been unable to do, for the most part, this entire year.

Visual observations will also show just how much Smoltz is at ease on the pitcher's mound, despite the recent struggles and exile from Boston. There were times when I wondered if he was hurt just because of how effortless his delivery was, as if he wasn't even trying. I remember in the first inning mumbling under my breath, "Crap, him too?" Yeah, him too ended up absolutely cruising through 5 innings of 3-hit ball, no walks issued and facing only 3 over the minimum.

Smoltz has a chip on his shoulder, and he's the kind of guy you want to have playing on your side when that happens. I swear he could have been part of a Dr. Pepper commercial when he said this, courtesy of Matt Leach and STLCardinals.com:

"I still believe I've got the intensity and the experience to pitch in big games... that's what this team and this franchise have been about, and I think you're going to be pleasantly surprised, or I wouldn't be here today."

"... Trust me, I'm a doctor."

The numbers certainly show a pitcher who still has gas in the tank. 9 strikeouts, regardless of who you're playing, in 5 innings is ace-worthy, and he did that without walking any batters in between. Let's dig a little deeper into the numbers of his first start, with the huge disclaimer of sample size flashing in bright lights.

44.4% of balls hit in play went for groundouts, a little less than two percentage points below his career average. No line drives were recorded as being hit, and his infield fly ball rate was 20%, compared to an 8.3% career IFFB%.

In one start alone with the Cardinals, Smoltz has a 0.4 WAR and is worth $1.8 million dollars. Yes, you read that right. He's worth $1.8 million based on his one start alone.

Some more numbers from the first start, while we're on a roll: his xFIP is currently 0.98 with St. Louis, his WHIP is 0.60, and his SLG-allowed is .222. And, of course, the all-important ERA is Zero Point Zero Zero.

John Smoltz showed us yesterday why we might be "pleasantly surprised" by his return to the National League. John, I'm sorry to say, it isn't really a surprise after all.

My Money's on Smoltz

2009-08-19T09:51:00.005-05:00

It appears that the Cards are on the verge of signing John Smoltz, who officially becomes a free agent today. Let me rephrase that: John Smoltz is on the cusp of bestowing the Cardinals with his graces. After all... above all, this is his choice, as he will be making the same amount of moneda no matter where he goes, with the Sawx footing the brunt of the bill. Hey, at least it's not drama to the extent of Brett Favre.

I had to say it.

I will say that, like Mark DeRosa, this is a move that I had proposed before the internet caught fire with it. (Sometimes it feels good to pat yourself on the back, especially on a blog that features you being wrong 99% of the time). Does that make it the right one? Not necessarily, but I do think it's a logical acquisition that has no real downside.

Even in the rotation, where the Cards are supposedly looking to insert Smoltz, he would be an upgrade from Boggs/Wellemeyer/Thompson/whoever else Tony might throw a ball and a jersey at. Personally, I believe Smoltz will be best suited for the bullpen to play a pseudo-ROOGY role, as an onslaught of statistics will show, but his time in the rotation with Boston wasn't all that bad. Take it from The Hardball Times:

If you are a believer in xFIP [4.32], which adjusts for that HR/FB luck, then he has been pitching like a league average starter, which is quite a feat while pitching in a hitters ballpark and in the toughest division in baseball.

Now take that insight and apply it to the Cardinals, where he will be playing in a pitcher's park and in one of the weaker divisions in baseball.

The Cardinals also may very well be hoping to put Smoltz in the back of the rotation with the thought process that he could become the set-up man in October. That's thinking pretty far in advance, but it is a potential factor in a post-season bound team.

If Smoltz can merely pitch at the league average rate - 4.32 xFIP - he will have been an upgrade over Wellemeyer - 5.32 xFIP - and Boggs - 4.85 xFIP. My money's on him being able to do that, and my money's on Smoltz helping this team going forward.

A Miller's Tale

2009-08-18T10:42:00.006-05:00

The Cards got their man, nearly two months after they got their other man - or kid, I should say. Shelby Miller, the first round pick and new life spring of the Cardinals farm system, inked a bonus of nearly $2.9 million scrilla on the eve of the signing deadline. The collective Cardinal Nation rejoices, here's why...

Three straight no-hitters. Mid-nineties fastball. "Already built like a 200-inning frontline starting pitcher."

Shelby Miller is the real deal, unlike how Justin Pope was the real deal before being traded to the Yankees for Sterling Hitchcock in '03. To put Shelby's $2.9 million bonus in perspective, it comes in just behind J.D. Drew's $3 million in 1998 and above Rick Ankiel's $2.5 million in '97 and Chad Hutchinson's $2.3 million in '98.

Perhaps the most highly touted pitching prospect coming into the Cards' system since Rick Ankiel, here's a bit of Mike Craven's scouting report at Prospect Insider:

Fastball: Typically clocked between 90 and 92, touching the mid-90s at times. Shows some natural sink and a decent movement.

Slider: The tighter of his two breaking balls, clocked in the 85-87 mph range and generally commanded better than his curve ball. Could ultimately be his best pitch.

Curve: Coming out of his hand at 72-76 mph, Miller's curve is what fools most prep batters. He piles up the strikeouts by setting hitters up with the velocity on his fastball, getting ahead and then flipping the curve somewhere near the plate.

Changeup: As with most prep arms, Miller's changeup is a work-in-progress, and since he doesn't need it to dominate in the high school ranks, his focus on the pitch between outings will be critical.

Mechanics/Delivery: Miller throws from a high arm slot, nearly straight over the top - not quite Joel Pineiro, but he's not a 3/4 slot guy, either. He creates decent plane on his pitches, particularly his fastball.

Here's a look at what Twitter is saying (sic'd):

DanManSTL: On a night when Shelby Miller eclipses Ank's draft contract record, Ricky homers FTW, Franklin closes, and Carpenter goes RAWR! Love it!

Don't make Carp angry. You wouldn't like him when he's angry.

MilliGFunk: Can I just say it doesn't suck to graduate H.S. and make 3MIL/year playing pro ball? #stlcards (Shelby Miller)

To set the record straight, the $2.9 million is a bonus, not an annual salary. Shelby will still be making the minimum until he's up for arbitration or signed long-term.

FishSTL: Why did we give Shelby Miller close to 3 million? Its so stupid for rookies to get so much money.

Fair critique. The reality is Shelby hasn't proven anything yet, and the Cards went above slot to sign him. I'd rather commit nearly $3 million to him than give a $1.4 million bonus to another Pete Kozma, though.

jdshaw30: Another good thing about the Cards getting Shelby Miller signed: MU won't have to face him at A&M

SEMO won't have to either. Oh, wait... we wouldn't have anyways.

spencergriffin: congrats to @jluhnow on the shelby miller signing. makes me a happy man and takes a little sting out of wallace and mort's exit.

Little chocolate donuts make me a happy man, but this is much more satisfying.

realslimfish: New Cardinal signee Shelby Miller had 150k's in 77 Innings pitched last year in HS. impressive, Have to wonder about the competition tho

Domination is domination. High school pitchers are harder to project, of course, but the consensus has been Shelby has good objective stuff, not just subjective numbers.

JTontheCards: congrats 2 Cardinals 4 ponying up the $$ (2.875 M) to sign 1st rd pick Shelby Miller...future ace

4 realz.

untreatable: Shelby Miller Signs With Arizona Cardinals Photos: The Arizona Cardinals were able to sign first round draft pic..

Wait a minute... that's not right...

C70: Very nice to see Shelby Miller sign for less than $3 million. Good to have that kind of talent in the system. #stlcardinals

C70, I'm with you here.

aharder23: I love the Shelby Miller signing. Cardinals are doing everything possible right now, to satisfy their fan base. Now, sign Smoltz & I'm happy

I echo that last comment. The Cards did well with the Shelby signing, keeping it under $3 million, but they shouldn't be done yet. John Smoltz is still looming, and he's officially a free agent now. Maybe beating up the Dodgers will convince him his World Series hopes truly lie with the Redbirds...

Dance Colby, Dance

2009-08-14T19:46:00.004-05:00

Many of you, like me, may have been curiously intrigued by Colby's new walk-up music. Some hate it, while others, like me, think it could be part of the most BA slow-motion-while-wearing-aviators-and-a-handlebar-mustache scene in the history of cinematics. The song is D.A.N.C.E. by Justice, a French electric-indie duo who has won numerous non-mainstream awards. You be the judge.

Go See District 9

2009-08-14T10:07:00.007-05:00

While you're waiting for baseball to start again at approximately 7:15 tonight, go see District 9. Got to see it at the midnight showing last night, and I really have to say that this movie rocked. A unique and entertaining sci-fi that addresses greater cultural issues, I really can't think of a movie to compare it to. It's that different. Best movie I've seen all summer? I would think so.

The Cardinals rock
But off days are rough for me
Please, more baseball now

Match the Platoon Splits

2009-08-13T09:34:00.006-05:00

We're going to play a game this morning called "Match the Platoon Splits." I'm going to list 5 pitching lines for 5 different players this year, all against righthanded batters. The answer will come after the jump:

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	K/BB
A	.232	.259	.486	.649	10.5
B	.239	.290	.359	.649	4.0
C	.260	.353	.380	.733	1.0
D	.237	.321	.419	.740	1.92
E	.290	.347	.420	.767	1.57

Your names to choose from: Kyle McClellan, Justin Speier, Jason Motte, John Smoltz, and Brad Thompson. Good luck.

All done? Great.

Trebek, can I see the answers?

A	John Smoltz
B	Justin Speier
C	Kyle McClellan
D	Jason Motte
E	Brad Thompson

How'd ya do? The stat that most stands out in the group is definitely Smoltz's 10.5 K/BB against righthanders. That's 21 strikeouts to 2 walks, a staggering number of platoon dominance. Speier has struck out 4 batters for every walk he gives up, which is also head and shoulders above what we currently have.

Speier was released by the Angels on Tuesday, and Smoltz is due to become a free agent if he's not traded first. Both seem to be better options than what we currently have and La Russa wants both of them, which leads me to believe that a move might be coming soon.

Come on, Brad. Really? .290? Really?

Smoltz Refuses DFA, Cards Back in the Race

2009-08-12T12:37:00.005-05:00

Per Ken Rosenthal and Fox Sports:

Smoltz refused his DFA from Boston, which means he can only be traded or released unless he's kept on the active roster.
Smoltz has already cleared waivers, so both trade and release are options at this point.
If Smoltz is indeed released, Boston must pay the rest of his base salary. The $35,000 per day on the active roster gets nulled upon release. John can then sign with a new team.
If Boston trades Smoltz, the bonuses are still in effect as well as his salary.

This could happen really soon, and you gotta think the Cards are in on it. Tony likes his veterans, and John Smoltz fits the mold. On the surface, it looks like it's going to be his choice whether he wants to start (Dodgers) or relieve (Cardinals). Stay tuned.

More on Smoltz

2009-08-12T10:48:00.005-05:00

More information on Smoltz from Buster Olney as the search for a righthanded reliever continues.

We all know Brad Thompson and Jason Motte have been struggling in the bullpen. Motte didn't make his case any better last night after giving up a hit, two walks, and a run in one inning, a run which ended up being the difference in a 5-4 loss. Although John Mozeliak has dispersed any initial rumblings of John Smoltz coming to the Cards, Tony La Russa is making it known that he would like to see the team pursue outside options across the waiver wire for relief pitching, according to Bryan Burwell of STLToday:

La Russa, suddenly a very greedy man, has that answer. "We could use another righthand threat in our bullpen," La Russa said. "Whether that guy could be (rookie reliever) Blake Hawksworth, we'll see. He has proven that he can give us innings. But even with Blake coming along, we're always searching and I know John is always searching to add some depth to the bullpen."

I wouldn't consider myself greedy for looking for other possible ways to help the team, because there are always ways to optimize your current roster. Whether it be by internal playing time or external acquisitions, you always seek to make the team better. Given that there are few MLB-ready righthanded relievers available in the system, it makes sense to look outside. That's where Smoltz comes in, according to Buster Olney:

The interest from National League teams is likely conditional, given the fact that Smoltz posted an 8.32 ERA for the Red Sox and allowed eight homers in his final 15 innings. It is highly unlikely that any NL team would be willing to take Smoltz in a trade without some financial adjustment from the Red Sox, perhaps with Boston kicking in money to pay off a large portion of his base salary and roster bonus. Interested teams could also gamble and wait for Boston to simply release Smoltz, and sign him for the prorated minimum.

Smoltz is making $5.5 million this year and can make an additional $35,000 for each day he spends on the active roster from June 1st to October 3rd. The Red Sox would love to get rid of the salary if they aren't going to be able to use him on the active roster, so getting some cash included is not likely.

Pro-rated, Smoltz is still due to make around $1.5 million the rest of the year in base salary. If he was on our active roster today, from now until the end of the regular season, he would be due an additional $1.8 million in bonuses for the $35,000 he makes each day. That's a hefty sum. I can understand an unwillingness to take that on unless Boston splits the bill. Maybe they're not willing to do that:

Smoltz, 42, is mulling his options. The Red Sox designated Smoltz for assignment on Friday when they made the move to take him off their 40-man roster. They would like the veteran to accept an assignment to the minors where he could transition into a possible relief role for Boston -- but the Red Sox also indicated they would like him to restructure a clause in his contract that allows him to make $35,000 for each day he is on the major league roster, above and beyond his base salary.

The Red Sox look like they're going to try and make it work with Smoltz whether he's in their rotation or not. It would be unlikely that the Cardinals make a move for him with so much salary on the line and so many question marks. The Holliday Trade happened, a deal with a bunch of salary involved and serious question marks, so there's no reason this couldn't too. Just don't count on it.

Let's Get John Smoltz

2009-08-11T09:03:00.005-05:00

The Red Sox designated righthanded starter/reliever John Smoltz on August 7th, after he put up a 8.33 ERA in 8 starts in his return from shoulder surgery. With the Cardinals' righthanded relief man woes, aww hell, let's get John Smoltz.

Point six-eighty-nine.

That's John's OPS-allowed through pitches 1-15 this season.

Point eight-fifty-six.

That's John's OPS-allowed through pitches 16-30. The trend goes up from there.

John Smoltz has the distinction of being both a top starter and closer in his career, perhaps a Hall of Fame career. Unfortunately, his first 8 starts with his new team went terribly, leading to a DFA and departure from the rotation. I, and I'm not the only one, am under the impression that it was a mistake to keep him in the rotation for so long. Looking at his numbers categorically, it's apparent that he shouldn't have been pitching three or four times through the order.

John's peripherals are still there, even if his velocity isn't. His K/9 is a healthy 7.43, BB/9 at 2.03, and K/BB at 3.67. His FIP is at 4.93, not as horrendous as his ERA implies. These numbers tell me that Smoltz can still pitch, but it depends on the situation he's put in that will determine if he has success. He can strike people out, but probably not for the course of an entire game.

Tony is a magician when it comes to putting players in situations to succeed. With Smoltz, he would know that limiting his exposure will increase his effectiveness, or at least that's what I'd hope he'd realize. He'd also know that Smoltz is a veteran with playoff experience, a gritty hard-nosed gamer who won't pansy around out of the bullpen. OK, maybe I'm exaggerating a bit, but I think Smoltz would fit in here, both as a player and a personality.

Claim John Smoltz from Boston and demote Brad Thompson to open up a roster spot. You shore up your righthanded relief without any real downside, as Smoltz couldn't be much worse than Brad. If he sticks, he sticks. If he doesn't, well, we're in the same position we were before. Smoltz would stick, though, and I guarantee he'd be on the post-season roster.

Your thoughts? I'm all ears.

Updated Elias Rankings

2009-08-10T10:38:00.004-05:00

An updated ranking of our free agents according to the Elias formula is out again, just in time to wallow in the misfortune of the ill-fated Rolen trade. Not that the trade was a bad deal in year one for the Cards, but this year has obviously been a different story. The Cards, expecting to at least be able to get something when Glaus departed in 2009, either by trade or compensation, will most likely get nada.

Once again, kudos to Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts for the updated numbers, available at MLB Trade Rumors. Former ranking in parenthesis, link to first Elias post here.

Mark DeRosa, Type B (B)

Khalil Greene, None (None)

Troy Glaus, Type B (A)

Jason LaRue, None (None)

Rick Ankiel, None (B)

Joel Pineiro, None (B)

Todd Wellemeyer, Type B (B)

Trever Miller, Type A (A)

Matt Holliday, Type A (A)

From 3 A's, 4 B's, and 2 None's last update, the Cardinals are now on track to have 2 A's, 3 B's, and 4 None's at the end of the season. Quite a change for just a couple weeks of play between them. From a potential 7 extra draft picks by compensation, this list provides for 5 now, if you discount Glaus and Wellemeyer, both of whom will likely not be offered arbitration.

I truly believe that Joel Piniero will be a Type B when the season is said and done, but it will take a strong finish for him to merit that. As it stands, Pineiro will probably not be offered arbitration unless he reaches Type B status, as the Cardinals would have nothing to gain but just a one-year contract from Joel if he accepts. It's not probable that he does that.

The strongest cases where the Cardinals will absolutely offer arbitration if longer deals can't be reached are the two Type A's, Miller and Holliday. Both would likely decline arbitration if it got to that point, although it would be much harder for an outside team to sign Miller if they have to forfeit a draft pick. DeRosa is another likely candidate for arbitration if he is not signed beyond this year. With all three players, it seems that the Cards will be looking to extend them beyond this year if possible.

***

David Freese Update: David has hit safely in every game since making his return to Memphis. His line in August:

	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	H	HR	LD%
Freese	20	.350	.480	.550	1.030	7	1	13.3

There's still hope for third base after all...

Pending Free Agents and Elias Rankings

2009-08-07T11:04:00.005-05:00

The Cardinals could potentially have 7 extra draft picks in one scenario this off-season.

The Elias Sports Bureau is the agency that ranks pending free agents according to formulas that we never will fully be able to comprehend without choosing to swallow the red pill.

The importance of these rankings is how each player ends up being classified, which determines what type of compensation the former team gets if they offer that player arbitration but he signs somewhere else. Type A free agents guarantee their former team two draft picks, one of which could be in the first round if the new team is picking in the second half of the round. If not, the former team gets the new team's second round draft pick. Either way, a supplemental "sandwich" pick is awarded to the former team in between the first and second round in addition.

Type B free agents guarantee their former team solely a supplemental pick between the first and second round. All other free agents don't reward their former team with any compensation.

So, with that out of the way, what are we looking at for our free agent class? Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts "reverse-engineered" the formulas used by Elias and has ranked the players before the official rankings come out. Here's how the Cardinals shape up:

Mark DeRosa, Type B

Khalil Greene, None

Troy Glaus, Type A

Jason LaRue, None

Rick Ankiel, Type B

Joel Pineiro, Type B

Todd Wellemeyer, Type B

Trever Miller, Type A

Matt Holliday, Type A

Keeping in mind that the player must be offered arbitration and subsequently decline, there are a couple players that will probably not be offered arbitration at all. Troy Glaus, who made just over $12 million this year, would be due an increase from that if offered arbitration, since arbitration can only increase for a player. Considering that Glaus would take that deal in a heartbeat, that's not going to happen.

Likewise, Todd Wellemeyer would be due an increase from his $4.05 million he made this year. Once again, Wellemeyer would probably accept any offer like that, so we can rule him out too.

Trever Miller will be paid around $1.5 million this year after performance bonuses, so it's a good possibility that he could be offered arbitration after this year. Rick Ankiel, $2.85 million; Joel Pineiro, $7.5 million; Mark DeRosa, $5.5 million; and Matt Holliday, $13.5 million, will all be offered arbitration if long-term deals can't be worked out. The range then is 7 extra draft picks to zero, depending on if arbitration is accepted or declined and whether long-term deals are established.

Should the Cardinals choose to sign Pineiro long-term instead? What about Ankiel? Comment below to share your thoughts.

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Website of the Day: CardsDiaspora.com

If you like Cardinals baseball, intertwined with poop jokes and constructive-cynicism, then Cardinals Diaspora is the site for you.

Random Video of the Day: Awareness Test

Getting Back in the Swing

2009-08-06T09:52:00.005-05:00

Talking about baseball, books, movies, and t-shirts. Yeah, we have variety here at Rockin' the Red.

I apologize for the brief sabbatical in posting. The beginning of this week was another signal that school is coming close, no matter how much I wish it away. OK, Southeast is fun, and going back is the only way I'll be able to finish my degree, so it's not really bad. But that, along with the pads being suited up across town, remind me that the baseball season is winding down. Just when it's heating up, it's coming to a close, and the storylines and players and coaches and minor leaguers that we followed so closely will be gone in a couple months. I hate to think of that. It gives me shivers.

Since today's an off-day, I'll take it as a day to talk about a variety of things. First of all, if you're interested in a Rockin' the Red t-shirt, pleasepleasepleaseplease pleaaaaaaaase e-mail me at kujo AT rockinthered DOT com within the next day or two. Right now, it's not going to happen, and that saddens me, not because of any profit I'm making off it, but because I thought it was a cool idea and design.

Secondly, Josh Williams from Triumph Books was able to hook me up with a giveaway for Rob Rains' new book - Tony La Russa: Man on a Mission. I'll be doing a book review and am working out a contest for those interested in receiving a free copy. Stay tuned.

Thirdly, if you've seen the movie Watchmen but haven't read the graphic novel - do it. Seriously, go out and get it today and read it. I didn't think I'd get much out of a graphic novel, but that was because I didn't understand the medium. Thought it would be too comic book-y to take seriously and end up being just a really weird and slow comic. I was COMPLETELY WRONG. If you even moderately enjoyed the movie, this graphic novel will wow you until you forget you're reading anything at all. You don't even have to like comic books to like it. I'm not exaggerating. If you like talking Watchmen, send me your thoughts on Twitter or in the comments.

Finally, I guess we should actually talk some baseball. The Cardinals still find themselves in a good place despite the loss yesterday and having more losses than Chicago. The upcoming schedule lends itself to separating themselves from the pack:

3 games @ Pittsburgh (45-62)
3 games vs. Cincinnati (46-61)
3 games vs. San Diego (44-65)
3 games @ Los Angeles (66-42)
4 games vs. San Diego

The combined W-L of our opponents the next 5 series: 245-295 (.453). Meanwhile, Chicago plays 4 @ Colorado (59-48), 3 vs. Philadelphia (60-45), 3 vs. Pittburgh, 3 @ San Diego, and 4 @ Los Angeles. The combined W-L of their opponents is 274-262 (.511). A pretty significant difference.

Now's the time to get on a streak. A winning one, that is.

***

Website of the Day: Starting Pitcher Database

Baseball Musings hit a winner when they created the Starting Pitcher Database. The database allows you to create any beginning and end date for a pitcher to see their game logs. Very useful tool for analyzing stretches of pitching.

Random Video of the Day: Most Hilarious Silver Screen Baseball-Related Death Ever

Trade Deadline Day

2009-07-31T11:31:00.004-05:00

An excerpt from the novel coming soon, Trading It Away:

Today, at 3:00 PM CST, the baseball world will have let another trade deadline slip by, like a steamship chugging along the choppy Mississippi waves. Fans huddled in masses hoping to step foot on the ramps leading up to their baseball dreams are left to wonder when their ship will come 'round again, only to realize it will be another year of vicious "What If" games until it grazes the shoreline once more. Others lucky enough to be aboard take solace in knowing they made it; although, as they look back at the drifting city landscape, a little nag sitting in the corner of their brains ridicules and rivets: "The cost is tall, but the dream is small. The cost is tall, but the dream is small." Indeed, at what cost does this trip come, with no real knowledge of where it heads? "Maybe they are the lucky ones," he says, as he watches their shapes turn into ants on a child's playtoy. "They know not the sacrifice. We know not the destination." Somewhere, Steve Phillips smiles.

Names to keep watching today: Chad Qualls, Jon Rauch, and Russ Springer.

Runs Above Average and Joel Pineiro's Fastball

2009-07-30T12:22:00.004-05:00

Last night's 15-inning game made one thing clear - Joel Pineiro is a different pitcher this year. When you look at his command of the strike zone, it's no wonder he's had such success.

First off, if anybody is interested in a Rockin' the Red t-shirt, send me an e-mail at kujo@rockinthered.com, and I'll put you on the waiting list. Price will be $15, including shipping, but I need enough people interested first. I need at least 9 more.

When you talk about a marathon game, you always wonder if the people that stay at the game for that long actually have lives. Well, yesterday - or earlier today, I should say - I was one of those people. Truth is, I don't have a life when it comes to Cardinals baseball. We probably could have stayed another 9 innings if we had to. The biggest concern I had was if we would be be mugged walking back to the garage at 2:00 in the morning.

The tickets were pretty good for getting at face value - section 597 bleachers, 6 rows up in left center field. I only mention this because it allowed us to have a great view of the strike zone and how Joel Pineiro was pitching, and, boy, he was masterful. 73 of his 112 pitches were strikes, which chalks up to a whopping 65% strike percentage. For the season, Joel's thrown pitches for strikes 66% of the time. If you take out this season, Joel has a 63% strike percentage for his career.

FanGraphs has a couple other stats that show the change in Pineiro's results this year. First of all, Joel's rate of using his fastball this year is 70.3%, up from 58.4% last year. For his career, Joel has used the fastball 59% of the time, and, if you exclude this year, that number drops to just 57.7%. The fastball, of course, is what has changed in Joel's repertoire, or, I should say, the sinking fastball.

FanGraphs has a stat that calculates a pitch's "Runs Above Average," giving a quantifiable value to how good a pitcher's pitches are when he uses them. This article is a great overview of how it works, but basically is accounts for the run values of each situation a pitch is thrown, i.e. whether it's a strike in a 2-1 count or a ball in a 2-2 count.

In Pineiro's case, his fastball has been much more effective this year in that it has accounted for more strikes in the strike zone and more outs from balls hit in play. This year, Joel's wFB - Runs Above Average for his fastball - is 17.8, which, in comparison, is the only positive number for Joel aside from 2003 with the M's (16.5). What this means is that Joel's fastball is actually saving him runs instead of costing him runs, and it's been quite effective.

FanGraphs also has a leaderboard for pitch values, and, sure enough, Pineiro is up there in 5th place for wFB, behind Washburn, Haren, Wolf, and tied with Verlander and... fitting, Clayton Kershaw. Last night truly was a great pitching match-up from an unlikely pairing. Chris Carpenter (15.1 wFB) is in 8th place.

The movement on Pineiro's fastball and the way it's been used has been a big factor in his 2009 success. When you're constantly getting ahead in counts with it, it's going to put up positive run-saving values because the hitter is always in the disadvantageous situation.

Even when the ball is hit, the movement on the fastball has boosted his ground ball percentage up to 61.1%, and, especially with this defense behind him, that's going to account for a lot of runs saved. So, not only is he pounding the strike zone with his fastball, he's getting lots and lots of outs with it. I would be throwing it more than two-thirds of the time too.

Last night was an awesome night of just plain good baseball. Sure, there were some mistakes made, but, overall, we were treated to a game that had everything in it but a home run. Let's make it a sweep tonight.

Fear the Beard Shirt

2009-07-29T09:53:00.006-05:00

I got on an art binge again, and I am pleased to unveil my latest creation:

Here's the deal. Would anyone like to order a shirt with "Fear the Beard" on the back and the Rockin' the Red badge on the front? Depending on how many I order, shirts will cost $15, which includes shipping. I am deciding to go a different route than Spreadshirt this time around, as I think I can get better prices for you and also support a local business rather than a worldwide one. Call it doing our part to save the St. Louis economy.

If you would like the idea of a shirt, send me an e-mail at kujo@rockinthered.com, and, if I get enough interest, I'll set up a paypal shop that allows for easy payment. I won't place an order for you shirt - so you're not on the hook - until I set up the paypal.

And, of course, all copyrights apply with my artwork. It may not be reproduced without my permission.

A Look Back: The Legendary Tatis and His Two Grand Slams

2009-07-28T10:08:00.005-05:00

Josh Willingham of the Nationals hit two grand slams in one game. Pshh... that's all? Done that before.

"I can't believe it happened. I did not expect to hit another one. I've never been a home run hitter. I just try to meet the ball. I'm not like Mark McGwire." - Fernando Tatis, April 23rd, 1999

The Cardinals have had their share of freaky incidents throughout team history, but Fernando's two-grand-slams-in-one-inning showcase has to take the cake for the most unlikeliest, uncommon event in Cardinals history. Earlier this year was the 10th anniversary of the feat, but it seems to get less and less notoriety as it fades into the shadows of baseball lore.

In 5 at-bats, the home runs were Fernando's only two hits and only two runs of the game, but they provided a goliath 8 RBI's in the inning and the game. To put a visual perspective on what went on, here's what FanGraphs shows:

In the span of one inning, the Dodgers went from a near 75% chance of winning the game to practically zero. Tatis' two grand slams nailed down the victory in essence, putting a cap on a milestone night with a .279 WPA.

A tic of suspicion accompanies that mammoth feat in 1999. Tatis hit 34 home runs in that year, setting a career high he would never get close to again. Like he says in his quote, he was not a home run hitter, with his previous career high being 11. Steroids seem like an obvious route to go down, and he was even part of the the Mitchell investigation with the Orioles. Then there's corking the bat. I honestly wouldn't rule out either.

But for now, as we watch Josh Willingham's two grand slam performance, we can take solace in the fact that we had a player who did something that might not ever be done again, especially in the post-Steroid Era. Sure, it looked like a 28-year-old crashed a little league game, probably after drinking one too many Red Bulls. But it was memorable. Oh, it was memorable.

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Website of the Day: Pitchers Hit Eighth

PH8 is a Cardinals blog that has become one of my top five favorites. You'll always find insightful commentary there, making it a worthwhile stop for any Cardinal fan. In this era of internet blogging, insightful has become a crucial word.

Random Video of the Day: Holiday by the Scorpions

Week in Motion: July 19 - 25th Recap

2009-07-27T10:29:00.006-05:00

So long, Jess Todd. I recap the past week's events with a little hint at the future.

In case you're just waking up from hibernation, here's a list of everything that has gone on in the past week:

1. Troy Glaus began making rehab assignments at Springfield in (gasp) the outfield.
2. Cardinals demote/trade/don't do anything with Chris Duncan. Apparently it's a trade because Julio Lugo is with the team now, for free until 2010.
3. Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson are traded for Matt Holliday. Future Redbirds has a heart attack.
4. Holliday assumes number 15, frustrating many in Cardinal Nation.
5. Troy Glaus is probably going to be traded now. And he seems to understand this.
6. David Freese gets back into action at Springfield to solidify himself as the top unexciting 3B prospect in the system.
7. Jess Todd is revealed as the PTBNL along with Chris Perez in the Mark DeRosa trade. Future Redbirds goes into a coma.

What's next? A Troy Glaus trade will happen soon, as there's no place to put him other than on the bench. Maybe the Holliday trade was also done knowing this, maybe not. The deadline is Friday, but Troy's one of those guys that might be able to pass through waivers after the 31st.

After getting spanked by Philadelphia two days in a row, I need a day to recover.

A New Era of Cardinals Baseball

2009-07-25T10:44:00.007-05:00

Recapping the storylines from Matt Holliday's debut.

So many storylines from yesterday's game, so little time to write them. For starters:

Matt Holliday makes his Cardinal debut a smashing success. Holliday did his best to make me look like a disgruntled blogger by going 4-5 with a double, 3 singles, 1 RBI, and a stolen base. Not only did he produce in the cleanup spot, it seemed like the entire lineup was rejuvenated by his presence.

15? Really? 15, Matt? Jim Edmonds was, in my mind, the last person that should wear the 5x3 in St. Louis. A sign of respect for a player who may have an outside chance at the Hall of Fame. Jim led us to two World Series, redefined the centerfield position for the franchise, was a hands-down fan favorite, winner of 8 Gold Gloves, and has the fourth most home runs in Cardinals history. If Holliday really is going to keep 15, we may have a petition start here soon.

Lugo hits a dinger. This is hilarious, really. The fans of Boston wait for Julio Lugo to show any power at all for the past year-and-a-half, and he hits a homer in his first start as a Cardinal. Heck, Lugo has already shown more power than Duncan the past few months. Are you kidding me?

Joel "Zorro" Pineiro. Joel Pineiro (.331 WPA) and Holliday (.162) alone gave the Cardinals a near 50% chance of winning the game. Pineiro and his sinker has been incredible this year. Simply incredible. 2.90 FIP, 0.21 HR/9, 4.15 K/BB, and 2.65 GB/FB. In my eyes, we have three aces on this starting rotation right now. Freakin' Joel Pineiro.

This team looks completely different. Did anyone else get the feeling that this team looks COMPLETELY different now. 1/3 of the starting lineup was acquired in the last month, and overall this team has a drastically different look at the beginning of the season. I feel like we're on franchise mode on MLB '09, and I just traded 3 70's for a 90.

Just what we needed. Another bald guy. I heard Vin Diesel is in negotiations with Mozeliak. I'll keep you posted.

(Matt) Holliday Road

2009-07-24T14:33:00.003-05:00

Oh, what the heck.

BREAKING: Holliday A Cardinal

2009-07-24T11:09:00.005-05:00

EDIT: Follow me on Twitter for more updates here.

Sportscenter is breaking the news now.

More when it comes. Well, what else can I say? Welcome to St. Louis, Matt.

The Link.

The Athletics and Cardinals have completed a trade that sends outfielder Matt Holliday to St. Louis in exchange for third baseman Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson and right-handed pitcher Clayton Mortensen, sources confirmed to ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.

In addition, sources said the Athletics will throw in $1.5 million to the Cardinals.

Optimal lineup with Matt Holliday: Skip-Pujols-Ryan-Ludwick-Holliday-Rasmus-DeRosa-Pitcher-Molina