tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30342809355437916902008-06-29T16:52:03.599-07:00Rancho Santa Fe BlogDanielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034280935543791690.post-57858408452350809972008-06-29T16:50:00.000-07:002008-06-29T16:52:03.621-07:00New RSF Wireless System To Launch SoonWorkers are completing construction of a new wireless communications system expected to improve both cell phone reception and broadband Internet access in the Rancho Santa Fe area.<br />ExteNet Systems is building the new wireless system under an agreement with the Rancho Santa Fe Association. The Association board was told at its Thursday, June 19, meeting that the new system is expected to be up and running by August.Danielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034280935543791690.post-49258184399633293192008-04-29T07:32:00.000-07:002008-04-29T07:37:00.980-07:00Spring Is Here!Thanks to all the rain this last winter, the Ranch is GORGEOUS! The flowers are blooming, trees are sensational and the grass on the golf course is emerald green. <br /><br />With Spring comes change and the Ranch is undergoing a cosmetic facelift of sorts. Here is an excerpt from the Rancho Santa Fe Review...<br /><br /><br /><strong>County lays out RSF road maintenance plans</strong><br /><br />By Ian S. PortAssistant Editor<br /><br />The county of San Diego plans to make nearly $5 million in improvements to Rancho Santa Fe roads over the next four years, according to a tentative schedule of local road projects that was recently released.<br />The document lays out the order in which the county plans to fix potholes and upgrade road surfaces over the next few years, but is not final. Rancho Santa Fe Association officials say they might lobby the county to change the order of certain projects in order to get the most worn roads improved first.<br />Resurfacing is scheduled for parts of El Mirador, El Vuelo, EL Vuelo del Este, El Zorro Vista and others this year, and new sealing is planned for a long list of roads that includes Avenida De Acacias and Via De Santa Fe. The full list is available from the RSF Association.<br />“We know the roads a little bit better than they do — first hand,” said Association Manager Pete Smith. “They look at it from a much higher elevation than we do.”<br />Smith wouldn’t say which Covenant roads he thought needed the most work, but said the Association would consult RSF Patrol Chief Matt Wellhouser and Director of Facilities Dick Brockett in deciding which roads to ask the county to fix first.<br />He said some of the older roads — parts of which are nearly three decades old, according to the county list — would need more than simply patching and resurfacing to be able to handle today’s heavier cars and SUVs.<br />The county spent nearly $3.5 million sealing and resurfacing roads in the Covenant from 2003 to 2007, according to the RSF Association, and several of those projects included smooth and quiet — but more expensive — rubberized asphalt.<br />Planning Director Ivan Holler said the Association would ask the county to use the long-lasting asphalt often on new projects, and may try to work a deal where the HOA covers the upfront cost difference.“I would think that’d be very easy to do,” Holler saidDanielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034280935543791690.post-41107923798696076602008-01-12T13:10:00.000-08:002008-01-12T22:09:42.994-08:00The Biggest Stories In Rancho Santa Fe in 20071. <strong>Witch Creek Blaze Nearly Claims <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">RSF</span> Village.</strong><br /><br /><strong></strong>Thousands of residents evacuated the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Rancho</span> Santa Fe area at the ring of a reverse -911 call on the morning of Oct. 22, urged to get out of the way of a massive, Santa Ana fueled Witch Fire that would claim over 55 structures, most of them private homes, before residents were allowed to return. A decisive moment came late that night, when walls of fire howled perilously close to the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Rancho</span> Santa Fe Village after demolishing dozens of homes to the east. Fire crews took a stand in the area <span style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff00">along </span>Via De Santa Fe and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Camino</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Selva</span> and by pointing their fire hoses straight into the air, saved the local commercial district from the storm of wind-whipped ember and flame. When all the flames were out and residents returned, the outpouring of gratitude was immense. The gratitude and giving continues to this day.<br /><br /><br /><br />2. <strong>School District Finds Light at End of a Long Tunnel.</strong><br /><br /><strong></strong>In a banner year for the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Rancho</span> Santa Fe School District, trustees and a superintendent saw one overcrowding <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">solution</span> suddenly vanish, only to come together on another direction before the end of the year. Plans to purchase a 28- acre site at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Calzada</span> Del <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Bosque</span> and Via De La Valle for a district wide middle school were announced in early April, with the district hoping to earn the support of 55 percent of voters for what would have been a $60 million school bond. But the school's plans disintegrated almost overnight after the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Rancho</span> Santa Fe Review broke news in early August that a local resident and noted horse breeder, Larry <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Mabee</span>, had purchased the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Calzada</span> site for a horse ranch. School officials were despondent, and some residents were angry. Results in an October based survey showed that most residents favored a long-discussed plan to vastly renovate the R. Roger Rowe campus, trustees and Superintendent Lindy Delaney decided to push for a $34 million bond in 2008 to do just that. Though the bond may pass in 2008, it is 2007 that will be remembered for putting the district on its current trajectory.<br /><br />3. <strong>Traffic Troubles or Trifles?</strong><br /><strong> </strong>While work quietly continued on the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Rancho</span> Santa Fe Association's plan to install three roundabouts at the north end of the village, some residents urged the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">HOA</span> to take more immediate steps-adding fuel to an issue that burned in the minds of residents all year ling. The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">RSFA'S</span> Road and Traffic Committee asked the Association in July for $30,000 to study traffic along <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Paseo</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Delicias</span>, including the possibility of installing temporary stoplights at the three intersections planned to eventually have roundabouts. While most residents wanted the signals temporarily- as a minor panacea to the problem of cut-through commuters speeding down residential streets-a few residents,at least, said they wouldn't mind of the signals became a permanent feature. But the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">RSF</span> Association Board of Directors, as well as many residents, balked at the idea of giving up in the area's long-fought aversion to traffic signals. Eventually, the request for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">a traffic</span> study was denied. But as the slow process of preparing for roundabouts continues, another year of cross-country pressure on local <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Rancho</span> Santa Fe roads has residents more exasperated than ever.<br /><br />4. <strong>Mixed Reviews for Mixed-Use Development.</strong><br /><strong> </strong>It may be called "The Lillian", but local residents didn't savor the original version of a proposed residential and commercial project like they do the creations of the woman who gave the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Rancho</span> its signature <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">style</span>. At least not at first- the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">architecturally</span> detailed proposal earned biting criticisms for the audiences at a meeting in July to announce it. The Spanish Colonial style proposal for the corner of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Avenida</span> De Acacias and El <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Tordo</span>, if approved, would be a major commercial and residential addition to the village. <br /><br />5. <strong>Village Planning And Problems.</strong><br /><strong> </strong>While the Association toiled away on preparations to implement its Village Master Plan-major work will begin in 2008-the owners of the gas station in the village saw an initial victory in their legal battle with the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">HOA</span>, claiming they owed funds for years of improper zoning of their property. A judge ruled in August that the property, on which a gas station was built in the 1960's, should be zoned entirely for commercial use. The Association , arguing that the board of directors never officially granted permission for the gas station, has considered half the property zoned for residential use only. It plans to appeal the judge's ruling after two more issues in the case.<br /><br /><strong></strong>Danielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034280935543791690.post-29917336057674063312008-01-03T07:47:00.001-08:002008-01-03T07:52:06.200-08:00Here's To A Great 2008!Happy New Year!<br /><br />Could this be the year for a BIG change for the Ranch?<br /><br />Here is an article from the RSF Review worth reading:<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />By Ian S. PortAssistant Editor<br /><br /><br />A long-stewing question that has divided the Rancho Santa Fe community in the past will return to center stage in 2008, when a group of residents will ask local voters to sign petitions on an issue that could change the area forever: Should Rancho Santa Fe incorporate into a town?<br />A group of local activists, including Dick Chandler and Marion Dodson, have been preparing a campaign to convince voters that the answer to that question is yes. Their group, which calls itself Citizens to Protect the Ranch, argues that incorporation would provide more local control over development issues, better law enforcement and more responsive local government — while potentially saving Covenant residents money on their homeowners association dues.<br />“Things are not as good as they could be and should be,” said Dick Chandler, a major proponent of the incorporation effort. “The quality of life is not what it was 25 years ago. The traffic problem was not what it is today, the streets were in better condition, there wasn’t the urban encroachment that’s filled in around us. People sooner or later are going to decide that they want to control their own destiny.”<br />Chandler and CPR have been working with the Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) on preliminary studies to determine the boundaries of the town, which would include all of the Covenant, as well as communities between it and Encinitas. The Rancho Del Rio and Hacienda Santa Fe developments would be included along with several other areas.<br />But all the major gated communities — Fairbanks Ranch, The Bridges, Cielo and the Crosby — would lie outside of the boundaries of the proposed town. The southeastern edge would run along the San Dieguito river, and the northern edge would fall along Escondido creek west of the Bridges development. The town would be bordered on the west by Solana Beach and Encinitas, and on the south by San Diego.<br />To put incorporation on a ballot and get LAFCO to formally approve any boundaries, CPR will have to get signatures from 25 percent of the voters in the proposed town or 25 percent of the landowners who own at least 25 percent of the property in the area. The group has six months from the planned start of the petition drive in January to accomplish this.<br />Chandler said they plan to argue that a town could fund a higher level of service with less cost to citizens by capturing property tax revenues that now go to the county, and with a 5.5 percent utility users tax that would cost most residents about $30 per month.<br />With those revenues, he said, a town could fund a police department of 15 uniformed officers and five dispatchers that would always have two officers on patrol. He says a local police force could dramatically improve response times over the County Sheriff, which can take as long as 43 minutes to respond to some low-priority calls.<br />He also argues that Rancho Santa Fe experiences a very high level of burglaries compared to other towns of it size and demographics — something he says a local police force could change.<br />“The best service we could have would be a local police department that would have a five or six minute response time,” proponent Marion Dodson said.<br />The CPR group also says that local government would do a better job of limiting development in the area, helping to preserve local property values.<br />“Counties have a pro-development bias,” he said. “Counties are for increasing development, increasing their tax base … towns guard their open space zealously and are sort of anti-development.”<br />Though many are happy with the level of services Rancho Santa Fe currently receives from the county, Chandler and the CPR group argue that the interests of the two bodies are inherently in conflict, and that incorporation would strengthen the Ranch position in the future.<br />He worries that the county will eventually push for the widening of the county through-fares that traverse the community, and that open spaces now taken for granted will disappear as high land prices drive more development.<br />“You go fast forward 25 or 50 years and now Chino’s is gone and the Sahm property’s been sold off, the reservoir has got homes on it. One by one, the open spaces will disappear,” Chandler said.<br />In documentation on its Web site, CPR says that though voters would have to approve a utility user’s tax, their ultimate financial burden would decrease because of services now performed (for Covenant residents) by the Association that would become redundant under incorporation. They predict possibly 40 to 60 percent reductions in Association dues.<br />Chandler said CPR will begins its petition drive likely in January, and that it will be handled through home meetings and volunteers — not paid signature gatherers.The RSF Association is not currently taking a position on the proposal, according to Manager Pete Smith. The RSF Association paid for several incorporation studies in the 1990s but abandoned the effort when it became clear that the boundaries of an incorporated Rancho Santa Fe would include other neighborhoods and homeowners associations.<br />The incorporation effort — which has simmered since a vote for it failed in 1987 — is likely to generate a hefty amount of controversy, especially among residents who are satisfied with the area’s current relationship with the county.<br />“I don’t think it’s in the best interest of the members of the Covenant,” said resident — and a former Association board president — Bill Hinchy, a strong critic of past incorporation efforts. “If you want to talk about land use control, can you think of any place in California or anywhere that has more control than the Art Jury and the Covenant over how land is used? I can’t. I can’t think of any benefits.”<br />Proponents of incorporation admit they will see hardened opposition to the idea, but they say they’re ready with good arguments.<br />“If they had visited even one or two of the towns I’ve visited [in researching incorporation], they would have a completely different opinion,” Chandler said of incorporation critics. “If we don’t do this now, 25 or 50 years from now it will happen. It’s going to happen.Danielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034280935543791690.post-38112680750881000082007-11-19T22:21:00.000-08:002007-11-19T22:27:04.827-08:00November NewsLife is back to normal in Rancho Santa Fe. The Village is active, folks are going on with life.<br /><br />Those that sadly lost their homes are settling into rental properties or staying with relatives or friends and going about the process of deciding to rebuild. <br /><br />Now the holidays are upon us! Thanksgiving is just days away and then Christmas right around the corner. The gorgeous lights will adorn the village and the residents will decorate their homes in grand manor. <br /><br />Check out the RSF Community Events link for details on the goings-on in the Ranch for the holiday season.Danielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034280935543791690.post-58859647859843388222007-10-25T17:24:00.000-07:002007-10-25T17:25:44.198-07:00The Rancho Santa Fe Fire October 2007EXCLUSIVE REPORT ON THE RANCHO SANTA FE FIRE<br /><br />October 25, 2007.Access into Rancho Santa Fe has been granted to residents only.<br /><br />From a first hand visual perspective I saw the aftermath of the worst fire in San Diego history. Here are the details of what I saw.<br /><br />On the northeast side of Rancho Santa Fe at the community of Cielo, the fire blackened the west side of the mountain. The fire was burning on both sides of Del Dios highway, dangerously close to homes in Cielo. At the east side of the Crosby Estates, the fire was stopped just a few feet from the Crosby fence line. No homes were lost in The Crosby Estates. At this time a total of 27 homes were either lost of damaged by the fire in the Covenant.<br /><br />Heading west into the Covenant, the fire swept through the east side of a 250 acre private parcel. <br /><br />On the west side of Cielo and to the southeast of The Bridges the fire destroyed one home. In the community of Rancho Del Rio and to the east a total of 16 homes were either damaged or destroyed. Reports from the RSF Fire district note that no homes were lost in Cielo, The Bridges, The Groves, Las Villas or Hacienda Santa Fe. <br />Within the village of Rancho Santa Fe on the small cul-de-sac street of Camino Selva, three homes were lost. All three were next door to one another. <br /><br />As I drove into the west side of the Covenant the area was quiet and it appeared that the fire had not reached this section of the Ranch.<br /><br />7 homes were either damaged or destroyed in the community of Fairbanks Ranch.<br /><br />Our firefighters did a magnificent job of saving our town from what could have been a much greater disaster.<br /><br />Per the Rancho Santa Fe Fire Departments website:<br /><br />UPDATED WILDFIRE INFORMATION! 10/25/07, 11:20 a.m. -- We are repopulating the entire Rancho Santa Fe Fire Protection District effective 11:30 a.m. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF: <br />The community of DEL DIOS DEL DIOS HIGHWAY (East of Calle Ambiente) And LIMITED ACCESS to residents only (with proof of ID) to the streets of:<br />Las Colinas El Mirador La Valle Plateada El Vuelo Zumaque El Sicomoro<br />My thoughts are with all the people who lost their homes in all of San Diego County and to everyone that has survived this tragedy.<br />For more details on the Rancho Santa Fe fire please visit the Rancho Santa Fe Fire District website at <a href="http://www.rsf-fire.org/">www.rsf-fire.org</a>.<br /><br /><br />The communities of Santaluz and Del Sur did not suffer any loss of homes in the Witch Creek fire.Danielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034280935543791690.post-84340235725138755312007-10-18T16:05:00.000-07:002007-10-18T16:18:26.649-07:00News From The Rancho Santa Fe ReviewOne of our local papers, the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Rancho</span> Santa Fe Review offers information on community activities and local information. <br /><br />The town has been diligently on the new school project and here are some of the latest details on the progress per the "Review"<br /><br />From an article by <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">RichardBurdge</span> the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">RSF</span> School board president:<br /><br />"After much discussion the board felt it was important to gauge public support for possible <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">alternatives</span> being considered to relieve <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">overcrowding</span> and improve school facilities. A written <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">survey</span> has been mailed to all registered voters in the district and will be asking for voter preference on the the following alternatives:<br />* A Rowe campus renovation in the range of $30-$34 million. This option maintains the Rowe school on its existing 9-acre property.<br />* A Rowe campus renovation and expansion in the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">range</span> $39-$43 million. This option includes the above scenario and provides money to acquire adjacent land to the Rowe campus as it becomes available.<br />* The purchase of the Quantum property( located on Del <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Dios</span> Hwy. and El <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Camino</span> Del <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Norte</span>) and construction of a district wide 5-8 upper school for approx. $60 million.<br />* The purchase of the Quantum property as land only purchase for $12-$16 million.<br />* A policy option of sending all district wide 7<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">th</span> and 8<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">th</span> graders to the Earl Warren Middle School.<br />rict's upcoming decision about palcing one of the alernatives on a bond ballot in 2008.Danielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034280935543791690.post-45362073569781221182007-09-04T10:13:00.000-07:002007-09-04T10:16:45.680-07:00A few articles from the Rancho Santa Fe ReviewThere is always something going on in the Ranch.<br />But, the Ranch residents will not forego their strong position to retain our small town feeling.<br />As for the school...we are moving along. Seems like the Calzada Del Bosque/Via De La Valle site is no longer in the running....<br /><br /><a class="RSFnonlinkHEADLINE" href="http://www.sdranchcoastnews.com/RSF%20pages/RSF_TP3.html">Lilian proposal will downsize in response to concerns</a><br />By Ian S. PortAssistant Editor<br />A major mixed-use development proposed for a corner in the Rancho Santa Fe village will be significantly reduced in size, after local residents and officials raised numerous concerns at the development’s introduction to the public last month.<br /><a class="RSFnonlinkHEADLINE" href="http://www.sdranchcoastnews.com/RSF%20pages/RSF_TP2.html">Hopes suddenly dashed, school district pauses to consider next move</a><br />The Rancho Santa Fe School District spent months of effort and more than $140,000 preparing a bond effort for a long-awaited second school site, only to find out Aug. 7 that their choice property had been quietly purchased by a local resident and horse breeder.Danielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034280935543791690.post-20422308803648607102007-07-30T12:19:00.000-07:002007-07-30T12:24:09.732-07:00Rancho Santa Fe Events Link<a href="http://bp3.blogger.com/_MVgRy7lPBxM/Rq46m4QwkpI/AAAAAAAAAAM/e0M1zS9u1_g/s1600-h/RanchoDays_logo.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5093072668214727314" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://bp3.blogger.com/_MVgRy7lPBxM/Rq46m4QwkpI/AAAAAAAAAAM/e0M1zS9u1_g/s320/RanchoDays_logo.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div>Check out the link on my home page at <a href="http://www.ranchosantafehomes4sale.com/">http://www.ranchosantafehomes4sale.com/</a> titled " Read About Rancho Santa Fe Community Events" to find out what is happening in the Ranch!</div><br /><div></div><br /><div>RANCH DAYS IS COMING!</div><br /><div></div><div><strong>September 23-29, 2007</strong><br /><br />Local organizations will host a variety of events during this week-long celebration of Rancho Santa Fe's history. A schedule of events will be distributed at the 4th of July Parade and Picnic along with the famous Rancho Days T-shirts! Look for the display near the BBQ Picnic, sponsored by the Community Center and the RSF Golf Club.</div><div> </div><div>Email me for details at dshort@coldwellbanker.com</div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div>Danielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034280935543791690.post-87058542353538632382007-07-20T22:44:00.000-07:002007-07-20T22:45:25.583-07:00Wells Fargo Housing UpdateThe Fed Delivers a Sobering View on the Housing Outlook and the Dow Hits 14,000!<br />Stock investors hit the "Buy, Buy, Buy!" button all throughout Bernanke’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony, in a fashion that would make Jim Cramer proud; this despite a more sobering view on the most likely path of the U.S. economy from the Fed. The Fed lowered its central tendency forecast for real GDP by a half a percentage point on the high end for 2007 and by a quarter percentage point for 2008. Is the equity market in denial and bound to correct? It certainly appears that way at the time of this writing, or is the equity market finally looking past the housing malaise? Not only did the Fed lower its outlook for the economy for 2007 and 2008, Bernanke sounded less sanguine about the state of the housing market and the potential spillovers into consumer spending than he did as recently as May.<br />The June increase in mortgage rates and the move to tighten mortgage lending standards and end abuse lending practices, is bound to hold back housing demand for a time, delaying the much anticipated bottoming of the housing market. June brought a decidedly weaker view of the housing market than we have seen in some time. The National Association of Realtors pending home sales declined 3.5 percent in May. This is highly correlated with actual existing home sales activity one to two months ahead. The commerce department reported that residential building permits dropped 7.5%, to 1.406 million units in June, suggesting another move down in housing starts in the months ahead. The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index fell to a 16 year low of 24 in July, and builders reported less buyer traffic and anticipate somewhat weaker sales ahead. Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are still rising rapidly in most parts of the country, adding to the nation’s already-bloated housing inventories. Existing home inventories had moderated in the 4Q of last year, but over the last five months have been trending steadily higher once again. The housing market is still mired in a world of hurt, and if Jim Cramer were writing this, he’d be hitting the "House of Pain!" button.<br />It’s hard to overlook the fact that housing market is embarking on another leg down. It’s like the roller coaster at your favorite amusement park. The first drop is a doozy and you’re not sure if there’s even a bottom. This is where the housing market was in the second half of last year, when residential building was contracting at a 20 percent annualized clip every quarter. Then the coaster reaches a temporary bottom and even begins to rise a bit again, and everyone breathes a sigh of relief. This is where the housing market was in the November 2006 to March 2007 period, only to be flung lower once again. The second drop tends to be a complete surprise, but is not nearly as scary and large as the initial drop. This is what is happening today. Acknowledging the recent spat of disappointing reports surrounding the housing market, we have modestly lowered our forecast for housing starts over the next two quarters. We now expect housing starts to bottom in the first quarter of 2008, instead of the second quarter of 2007. This is likely to trim a tenth or two off of consumer spending and GDP growth all else being equal. It also raises once again the question of whether the U.S. consumer can hold down their lunch as the housing market roller coaster carries on its merry way. We still think they can, and that is the silver lining here.<br />Unless the housing market downturn leads to a material increase in the unemployment rate, the impact on spending will remain rather limited. This isn’t to say there will be no impact. Already in parts of California, like in San Diego, where housing prices trebled and reliance on ARM’s hit 70 percent of total originations for a time, we are already seeing measurable job losses in construction that has single-handily brought the local economy to a standstill, and may now be holding back consumer spending and retail employment. Other parts of the country are likely to see a similar pattern develop to varying degrees in the months ahead. Yet on average, the U.S. economy will muddle through this adjustment period. The national unemployment rate is expected to only rise by two-tenths of a percentage point over the next year and a half, and real income growth already at high levels for this expansion could improve further if inflation finally moderates. Perhaps this is what the equity market is cheering about. No matter what regulatory hurdles are erected on mortgage lending, or how many hedge funds heavily leveraged on MBS go belly up, the macroeconomic impacts on the economy are likely to be smaller than they were last year and will diminish further over time. Every month the housing market weakness continues, brings us one month closer to the end of the adjustment. I’m still a strong buyer of equities and the U.S. economy at these levels.<br />INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT IS THE PERSONAL VIEW OF THE WRITER, NOT NECESSARILY REFLECTING WELLS FARGO &amp; CO. IT IS FOR YOUR PERSONAL USE. THE WRITER DOES NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE. NOTHING IS GUARANTEED.Danielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034280935543791690.post-73859652791951468712007-07-18T08:37:00.000-07:002007-07-18T08:40:45.455-07:00Welcome To Rancho Santa Fe Blog!This is the first posting of the Rancho Santa Fe blog. Stop by to find out about current events, news in the Ranch, new projects, town activities and more!<br /><br />How is Rancho Santa Fe? Gorgeous...every single day!<br /><br />Stay tuned for more information and details.Danielle Shorthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10312362984716444511noreply@blogger.com