PG Longer than Elephants

This Blog is Moving

2007-04-16T18:11:00.000-04:00

We moved to WordPress. Please use the link below.

http://chinesegumbo.wordpress.com/

Whoa! I skipped a Month.

2007-04-16T17:54:00.000-04:00

What happened to March? I was saving the most recent predictions and couldn't find March, then I realized I didn't make one! I have beeen so busy the past few months and since RQ has been away, I haven't been checking in on the adoption scene.

This month's referrals came out on April 9th, 2007. Yes, I'm a week late. ONLY 2 DAYS WERE REFERRED. October 25th, 2005 & October 26th, 2005. News from the Agency was that the employees at the CCAA were pulled into meetings to discuss the new rules (starting May 1st, 2007), so they were unable to match as many Babies to Dossiers.

Rumors say that the next batch will be before China's holiday (May 1st - 7th).

Revised Predictions: Remember, these are based on LIDs matched and not on the number of Dossiers logged in. I will do that prediction next.

Another Round of Referrals? Yes, I'll take a double.

2007-02-01T15:53:00.000-05:00

This month has flown by! This weekend will be our first weekend home since the beginning of the year. We went to Disney World for a week with my sister and niece, age 2. We also met up with some friends of ours who have two boys, ages 5 and 1. We had a blast, but came down with nasty colds at the end of the week so we lost a couple of days. It's good to be home, but what's up with this weather? It was even cold in Disney. I'm already counting the days until Spring. At least we have Mardi Gras to keep us a busy during February. First parade is tomorrow night!

Okay, so on to Adoption talk...
I think we're almost DTC...within a month, hopefully. Agency said that they received the last I-171H for our group 3 days ago and sent it off for authentication (which I think takes about 3 weeks). This month's batch of referrals made it through October 13th, 2005. One of the weeks in October was a holiday, so there were no LIDs during that week. I adjusted our "estimated LID" by adding a month. Previously, I was estimating the second half of February 2007, but now I'm estimating the second half of March 2007.

I hope to be posting that we are DTC very very soon!!!!

The Newest Referrals are In!

2007-01-04T16:48:00.000-05:00

This time, our agency received referrals, which is very exciting. We even had a surprise BOY! I wonder how often that happens? I've seen people who request boys receive girls. I could be wrong, but I would say boys are more rare than Twins. Maybe I'll start keeping track of the number of blogs that I come across that are NSN boys and twins. It would be interesting. I did hear of a couple receiving Twins in France this time.

Based on the recent cut-off date of September 27th, 2005, here are our latest estimates:

Still waiting for more families to receive their I-171Hs so that we can be DTC. Everything else has already been authenticated and translated.

Waiting for the newest referrals

2006-12-29T16:46:00.000-05:00

Referrals should be coming in soon and this is the first batch in a long time that our agency has a group that is expecting babies. This group was logged in on September 12, 2005. Their wait from LID to referral will be just under 16 months.

RQ has recently released a new poll. I love data. This LID poll goes through September 2006. The results are lumped into months rather than days, so it took me some time to tease them apart.

My first assumption is that the rate of the past two months of LIDs referred will stay constant. ie. it took X number of days to include Y number of referrals in a batch. This assumption is most likely incorrect, but, since I'm not psychic, it's the best foundation to start from.

My second assumption is that the same percentage of people who were LID recently took RQ's poll as the number of people LID a long time ago. ie. the longer you're in the process, the more likely you are to know about RQ and her poll. I started to work on the increase of people per month to her site to artificially inflate the numbers as they go out into the future (since RQ recently gave us some data about the number of unique viewers, hits, etc. on her site by month), but I realized that there are too many factors that increase communication and it wouldn't be very reliable. Instead, it's easier to just look at the data and know that the further you go out, the more optimistic the dates.

Oh, I forgot, I have one more assumption (geez with all of these assumptions, the outcome can't be too reliable, but ... it's fun, and it will be fun to see the pattern over time, especially since we're in for a 2+ year wait). Okay, my third assumption is that referrals are sent out once per month, so when I say "January 2007", I mean the referrals that come out the beginning of that month, or sometimes the end of the previous month. So, if the CCAA decides to do two batches in a month, or one batch in 6 weeks, it will throw it off. However, I would imagine that they still match roughly the same number of babies per month, regardless of how quickly or slowly they do it.

So, here's my latest predictions based on RQ's poll ending 12.22.2006.

The RED dates are those that include one of our agency's groups. The August 2008 referrals I made up because I ran out of data, but I wanted to squeeze another group on the table.

By creating this prediction, I'm not discounting my previous predictions, I'm just adding more data to the mix. The CCAA controls how many babies they match. There are so many factors that affect this, that there are forums to discuss the speculations. I would post my belief of why the CCAA has slowed down here, but I'm not ready to turn this blog into a forum of sorts. For now, I enjoy sitting back, watching the recent changes and how they are affecting the timeline.

Almost There...

2006-12-26T22:52:00.000-05:00

This afternoon we arrived home from Glen's family's house, where we celebrated Christmas, to find a big surprise in our mailbox... our I-171H!!! I can't believe it! We are very surprised. So now we wait for others in our agency to receive their I-171Hs to form the next group. The groups usually consist of 4-5 families and I know that at least one other I-171H has already been received. After the group is formed, our I-171Hs are authenticated and our Dossiers are sent to China.

Happy New Year!!!

Too Cute

2006-12-06T18:46:00.000-05:00

This is my two and a half year old niece who is loving Christmas!

The Latest Referrals are Out

2006-11-30T09:14:00.000-05:00

The CCAA updated their website around 5:00 this morning. The cut-off date is September 8, 2005. This represents the same number that they referred last time. Here is our updated prediction:

Since our Dossier has not even gone to China yet, I am basing these predictions on a LID between 2.15.2007 and 3.15.2007. My previous predictions were based on a LID between 1.15.2007 and 3.15.2007.

We are currently waiting for our I-171H. Our fingerprints were completed on September 14th, 2006, but our Home Study did not leave for Atlanta until October 2nd, 2006. Atlanta is currently taking 12+ weeks to issue an I-171H. Given the holidays, I am going to lean toward the +++ side of this estimate.

In addition to attempting to predict our referral date, I also enjoy trying to predict the next cut-off dates. I have broken these predictions down two ways; based on the past 5 months and based on the past 1 month. I am using RQ's polls to count how far the LID cut-off date will go. This is way more reliable than the number of days matched and I wish RQ would post a poll that includes all LIDs. The variance would of course increase the further out you go, but I think you could still get a better idea of what's ahead compared to number of days matched. Since the poll stops at the end of October, you can see where I had to stop counting, but the cut-off date should really be beyond October. I just can't tell how far. I have also included the Group numbers of our Agency so that I can see where they fall in my predictions.

A break from Adoption

2006-11-13T17:34:00.000-05:00

For those of you who know me, you probably know that I am one of 4 siblings, including my older brother Joe. And for those of you who know Joe, you know why I have to include the following disclaimer.

*THE FOLLOWING SITE AND ITS CONTENT ARE PROVIDED "AS IS." WE MAKE NO REPRESENTATIONS OR ENDORSEMENT ABOUT THE SUITABILITY FOR ANY PURPOSE OF ITS CONTENT. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ENTERTAINMENT VALUE OF THIS SITE. WE DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES AND CONDITIONS, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF HUMOR, TASTINESS, AND POLITICAL VIEWS.

That being said, here is Joe's most recent hour in the limelight. Please take the time to view the comic strip. Scroll down to Monday, November 13, 2006
(Kimchi #2) The Amateur Kimchi

http://www.zenkimchi.com/

November 2006 Prediction

2006-11-06T21:44:00.000-05:00

I added the data from the most recent referrals to my prediction table and this is what it says:

The Varying Wait Over the Past Decade

2006-11-06T14:37:00.000-05:00

I found this graph on www.brightoutlooks.com and thought it informative, so I asked for permission to post it on my blog. This is a graph by Ralph Stirling showing the history of wait times from DTC (Dossier to China) to referral from 1996 - 2006.

There is also a list of Historical Milestones that may or may not have affected the wait times.

1990: CCAA became China’s central authority for international adoption (Jun)
1998: Amendments to adoption law were approved (Nov)
2001: Quota system implemented to help regulate the rate of applications (Dec)
2002: Slowdown continues due to growing popularity of China’s program
2003: First case of SARS noted in Toronto (Feb). China introduces six-week suspension of file processing & referrals (May 15 – Jun 24)
2005: Adoptions temporarily halted from Hunan province following baby-trafficking investigations (Nov)

I guess I find this interesting because it shows that the wait has fluctuated pretty consistently over the past 10 years, with the longest waits in 2002 at about 16 Months and the shortest in 2004 at about 5 Months. It seems like the CCAA adjusts their process based on the growing demand of Chinese adoption and we are in an upswing. In a way, I find it comforting to know that the wait has grown to only 16 Months in the past, and hope that this record will not be broken (or if is, not by much).

Note: click here to see the current graph, updated Nov. 2006.

www.brightoutlooks.com

A new batch of referrals was delivered today!

2006-11-02T13:31:00.000-05:00

I know it's a little early to be following the referrals so closely, but I can't think of much else. Early this morning the CCAA updated their website announcing that referrals have been matched and sent out for Dossiers that were logged in from August 10th, 2005 to August 25th, 2005!

Just a few more years to go....

The Best News We've Had So Far!

2006-10-27T16:09:00.000-04:00

I told Pat, from our agency, about my concerns over my fingerprints. She gave me the email of a lady at the INS. I emailed her today and here is her response:

we have your fingerprints.

So the countdown did begin on October 2nd. The couples in our group who most recently received their I-171H received it in 94 and 119 days. It's supposed to take 90 days, so I'm hoping that good luck will start coming our way. It would be AWESOME to receive it before Christmas, but that may be too optimistic.

Quick Update

2006-10-23T17:23:00.000-04:00

After posting the last blog, I received an email from our agency saying that our Homestudy went out on October 2nd. This would put the ETA of the I-171H around the week of January 1st and with the Holidays, I'm gonna guess it will be late.

Just some China news.

2006-10-23T13:00:00.000-04:00

Well, we never received anything from INS, so I'm taking this as a good sign that our fingerprints were not rejected. We are now waiting to receive our I-171H. This is the final document we need before our Dossier is sent to China. The average wait for the I-171H is 90 days from fingerprinting. Our fingerprints were made on September 14th so i'm hoping that we will receive it the week of December 11th. As we get closer, I will speak with our agency to find out where we fall in the creation of groups. Our Dossiers are sent to China in batches of 4 - 8 families. I hope that we make it at the end of a group so that we will not have to wait for other families to receive their I-171Hs before our Dossier is sent to China.

In other news, I have been learning a lot about the China adoption slowdown that started in November 2005. When we first started the process, we were told that it was because the China Center of Adoption Affairs (CCAA) was moving offices and that it would speed back up soon. The wait in January was 8.5 Months. Recently, I learned that prior to October 2005, the CCAA was only in charge of 25% of China's orphanages. In October 2005 they were put in charge of all of the orphanages. I do not know the details behind this change, but I think that this would better explain the slowdown. A lot of people are saying that the number of orphans has decreased, however, it seems that it is the number of paper-ready orphans that has decreased. Maybe with the CCAA changes, they have been unable to ramp up in order to handle the increased number of orphanages. The current wait is 13.75 Months.

The slowdown is looking terrible for us since we have not sent our Dossier to China yet. I can't help but think that this slowdown will affect the number of people who choose to adopt from China and will hopefully lessen the wait for us.

Along with other Waiting Families out there, I have created my own tables to run the projections. Before I jump into my findings, I probably need to explain some of the measures. China releases a new batch of referrals (babies) once a month (appr. every 29 - 30 days). They are matched in the order that the Dossiers are Logged-in. This is also known as LID (log-in date). The only reliable measurement we have to go by is the number of days (LIDs) completed in a batch. However, this measurement is not accurate since the number of Dossiers logged-in varies daily, monthly, and yearly. There are some sites that take polls of their visitors' LIDs to create a representative sample of the what is actually logged in, but for now, I'm going to stick to number of days matched.

There are actually four ways I've looked at the data: 20 Month Average, 6 Month Average, and 20 and 6 Month Average taking into consideration the variance of each month (ie. the wait is consistently growing).

One Major Assumption I have made is that our LID will be between January 15th, 2007 and March 15th, 2007.

I think it will be fun to post my predictions monthly to see how they change.

So, for October 2006, my predictions on when we will receive our referral(s)are:

I need to work on this graphic. It didn't turn out very well, huh?

To keep me focused on the end result, I like to keep up with other families who are getting their referrals and traveling to China. Here is my blog for the month:

http://salsainchina.blogspot.com/

Follow along with Rod and Mary-Mia as they travel to China to meet theit twin daughters, Rose and Marie. They arrived in China on Friday, October 20th and are getting their girls today or tomorrow.

INS Fingerprinting, Part III

2006-10-02T11:43:00.001-04:00

I just wanted to post an update. We are still waiting to hear about our fingerprints. I am still optimistic about mine being readable since we haven't heard back about Glen's yet. In Birmingham we were told that we would hear something in about a week and a half. That passed last Monday. Glen was finally able to speak to a human after calling the customer service number. He told Glen that it will take 30 days.

This is our final big hurdle that can greatly affect the timeline. If my fingerprints clear, we are on track to receive our I-171H around three months from that point. After that, our dossier goes to China. My current estimation is February 2007, six months later than expected.

The CCAA released the latest batch of referrals last week. They are still not showing any signs of speeding up. The current estimated timeframe for the dossiers that are being logged in now is 18 months. When we started the process in January 2006, the timeframe was 9 - 10 months. We are still counting on the year of the Pig (lucky year to have a baby) to speed things along. Because of that, I will place my optimistic estimation on June 2008, the Summer Olympics!

One of my favorite blogs

2006-09-22T17:08:00.000-04:00

When we decided to start the adoption process in November '05, I started scouring the internet for information. This is one of the first blogs I came across and I still enjoy checking in every once in awhile to see what's new. After clicking on the link, scroll down to the video. You can find many more posts and videos on her blog. Just one warning... you will need to get some Kleenex's before you start watching it.

http://waitingforsophie.blogspot.com/2005/12/sophies-story-video.html

INS Fingerprinting, Part II

2006-09-16T10:48:00.000-04:00

Thursday we left our house before 6 am to make it to Birmingham for our 11 o'clock appointment. The office building was nothing like we expected. Instead of a big Homeland Security type building it was a quaint little office in a business complex. Almost missed it except for the small Immigration Services sign on the door. We were the first people there, then two couples came in after us. They were apparently there for the wives to apply for citizenship, as the husbands were not allowed back past the waiting room, and the ladies didn't appear to speak English. One muttered something that sounded like "restroom", the employee pointed off in the direction of the door, and the lady proceeded to enter the men's room. I quickly pointed her into the right facility. My fingerprints went semi-smoothly, the technician had to try a few fingers more than once to get an adequate reading. The computer quickly computed some math based on the points, ridges, and valleys from my print on the screen and spit out a percentage of eligibility if it was a good print. I felt like I was in a CSI episode. Then it was Beth's turn. If they thought they had problems with me, they were in for a surprise. Took about half an hour, had to do almost every finger several times, and they still aren't sure the computer will be able to read them legibly. They said that we would receive a letter in the mail in a week or so with the results. I hope we don't have to go back, nine hours in the car got old quick. Although I did have my friend's new book to pass the time. We made it back to Fairhope just in time to attend a reading and book signing at Page & Palette. It's a good book, highly recommended, geared towards a younger audience, but if you're young at heart you'll enjoy it. Check it out, "Alabama Moon" by Watt Key. Here's a link to his site http://www.wattkey.com/ and a link to read some reviews http://www.amazon.com/Alabama-Moon-Watt-Key/dp/0374301840

INS Fingerprinting.

2006-09-02T10:46:00.000-04:00

Quick update. We got our appointment to get our federal fingerprints taken the week after we get back from our cruise to Cozumel. Gotta go catch the boat now, hope everyone has a great Labour Day weekend, we know we will...
Beth and Glen

Homestudy, The Final Episode

2006-08-17T22:11:00.000-04:00

Tonight our social worker came for the fourth and final visit. She had a few wrap up questions for the two of us but spent the majority of the visit doing basic home inspection things, such as smoke detectors, fire extinguishers, etc. We gave her the tour of the house and showed where the children will stay, even though we aren't sure exactly which of the spare rooms we plan on using. Might even split up the twins, we'll have to wait and see how it works out. She gave us some additional input as always and seemed genuinely excited for us and commented that she hopes she is able to do our 1 year follow-up visit. We hope she does too.
Our next step is the form I-600A which is the application for citizenship we send off to immigration. We'll then get back the I-171H which is the approval. These steps culminate the last of our paperwork before our agency sends our dossier to China. Hopefully things will go smoothly from here. To celebrate another milestone in our journey, tonight for dinner we ate take out from China Wok. Yummy.

Homestudy, Part III

2006-08-17T09:24:00.000-04:00

Yesterday our social worker met with me (Glen) at work around lunch. Since she lives in Mobile it was more convenient for her compared to driving to Fairhope during the evening. She does have to make the trip tonight though, last in house visit at 6:00...wish us luck. Everything should go smoothly. The one on one meeting yesterday went well, had a good visit. She asked me about a dozen questions, nothing out of the ordinary. We did get off on a tangent when she found out that I work for a forestry consulting firm she got pretty excited and needed some advice on 40 acres of family land that timber buyers keep calling wanting to cut the timber. I put her in touch with some local foresters who are members of the Association of Consulting Foresters as well as local state/county forestry extension services. Anyway, we are looking forward to wrapping up this part of our paper work and can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. Will post more after tonight's walk through.
Glen.

Gotcha Day Videos

2006-08-14T18:29:00.000-04:00

I had some time today to browse through YouTube looking for adoption videos. I think it would be fun to share some of the special ones. I will post a new one every once in awhile. This is one of my favorite ones that I found today. "Gotcha Day" is the term used for the day you receive your child(ren).

Kim & Kaili's Gotcha Day
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Co9ZPBSPJi4

ABI Fingerprints

2006-08-14T11:17:00.000-04:00

My fingerprints FINALLY came back...... CLEAR!!!

YEAH!!!! Glen and I are finishing our Dossier paperwork today. We're getting closer...

Homestudy, Part II

2006-08-10T17:26:00.000-04:00

We just had the second of our four homestudy visits. This one was one of the individual meetings and I decided to go first. She started by asking me to talk about my life. This is the make-up of our auto-biographies, and since we talked so much at the last visit (it went way over the scheduled hour), I decided to stick with what I wrote. So, I talked about my life, from birth through today, it was pretty matter-of-fact, “I was born here….went to school here…moved there…went to school there”. She also asked about what is important to us, our religious life, and what values we want to instill in our children. It has been a great experience talking to the social worker. She has given us a lot of information and answered most of our questions. On the first visit we talked about the prospect of twins. She explained that most people do not request twins, and that twins are sometimes “put up for adoption” as single children. This made us very hopeful. She told us about another family who adopted twins a year ago and she just did their one-year follow up. This family was initially given a referral of a single child, but our agency contacted the CCAA to promote that the family wanted twins. The family was then given the referral of twins. This story made my day. Of course we will be extremely happy with the referral of a single child (and probably thank China later), however, we are prepared for the placement of two children in our home. Well, I don’t think I’m being quite honest… we would LOVE to have two babies to love and be loved by… and why not? Twins are super special when they occur naturally, but to be able to adopt them, and experience their development, everyday needs & wants, and the gift that children give X2! … well, we’re ready. Our meeting went extremely well. I hope that we will continue speaking with our social worker after this process. There is a one-year meeting that occurs post-adoption, so we have an opportunity to maintain our contact. She mentioned that she is interested in following us, and another couple she is working with (similar to us), to see if, during the adoption process, we find ourselves expecting. I said that we have talked about the possibility, and we are prepared. At the end of the visit she asked, “Is there anything that I haven’t asked, but you want to say, about being a mother.” I think it was the word “mother” that hit me, and tears sprang to my eyes. All I could tell her is that this is something that means more to us than I can put into words.

I’m not sure if I gave her enough material for her report since I ramble on and give more examples than statements, so I hope that Glen will be able to fill up her notes. I told him, “It’s kind of like the finale of Family Feud when one person goes first and gets points, then the other person has to get the rest to win.”

Our next two visits are scheduled for next week. She will meet with Glen first, then, on the last visit, she will “finally” take a tour of the house to account for the square footage and other housing particulars. So, I guess we’ll have to have another cleaning party this weekend! j/k.

We received a letter today from our adoption agency detailing the particulars about the growing wait. It explained that while, the wait is increasing between LID (log-in-date) and referral, there is no way to predict the future wait. We have heard this before. The wait, since late last year, has steadily increased. This is due to the increased number of dossiers going to China. However, previously, the wait has increased to as much as 14 months, then decreased to 6 months. The last group to go pick up their children in China waited 11 ½ months between LID and referral. The next group (whose LID was in August/September 2005) is expected to receive referrals in October 2006. So far, we are okay with the wait we’ve experienced and the wait that we foresee. However, we do hope that we will be traveling at the end of 2007. In order for this to happen, the wait will have to decrease, since we do not expect our dossier to be logged in until November or December of 2006. So, to encourage ourselves, we find any piece of news that alludes to an increase in Chinese babies. For example, this year is the year of the Dog. Glen saw a news story about how there are more marriages than can be handled in China right now because the year of the Dog is a lucky year in which to be married. What does this mean to us? This means that there will be more WBD’ing than usual in China, thus there will be more babies. Now, I know that I am being a little rash about the situation, but, when you, and many others, are waiting, you think about these things. I have another scenario, and this one will only be appreciated by those in hurricane alley. China has experienced a terrific hurricane season (“terrific” being the meteorologist coming out in me). What do you do during hurricanes? Well… anyway, if you too are waiting for a baby, you see what I’m ‘getting at’.

…Please stay tuned, Glen’s homestudy visit coming soon.

Homestudy, Part I

2006-08-07T11:28:00.000-04:00

Last night a social worker, met with us for the first of four visits. She is scheduled to come on Mondays and Wednesdays for the next two weeks. She met with both of us for about an hour and a half, mostly just getting to know us and asking a few general questions. We had a lot of questions for her and she proved to be a very good source of information, as she has a lot of experience placing children with adoptive parents. She provided some great input on couples requesting twins as well. A lot of the topics discussed came straight from our autobiographies we each had to write. We went over our family backgrounds, our relationship with each other, and other things like how we plan to discipline our children. She gave us some hypothetical situations and asked how we would handle them. A lot of the discussion centered on limits and boundaries. We think the interview went extremely well. Tomorrow when she comes she will meet with Beth alone, then Monday with Glen alone, then on Wednesday we'll wrap up with another group meeting. The only thing that went "wrong" was that we didn't get a chance to show her around the house much. She just came on in and we sat down and got started. Tomorrow we'll be sure to give her the grand tour so we can show off all the hard work everyone has done helping us get our house in tip top shape. Thanks again Brian, Mimi, Emily, Julia, and Molly!!! We couldn't have done it without your help!