Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

Death toll in Vietnam continues to rise

2009-11-03T20:37:00.002-06:00

Tropical Storm Mirinae slammed into south central Vietnam and quickly dissipated becoming a tropical depression before reaching the border with Cambodia. Vietnam has been hit with quite a few storms this season and while most of them have been in the northern provinces, the south has received a very high level of rain and flooding as well.

Generally, "we" have a mis-perception that tropical storms and Cat 1 hurricanes are relatively "safe" in that the winds are lower than their more severe intense cousins. As we have seen both here in Vietnam and in the Philippines, just because storm is a depression or below typhoon strength does not mean that there is no danger. Flooding from Tropical Storm Mirinae has been severe enough that there are now 57 deaths as a result along with a couple of deaths in Cambodia as well.

(photo coutesty of AFP)

Vietnam storm death toll rises to 57 (Associated Press)

HANOI, Vietnam – Officials say the death toll from Tropical Storm Mirinae has risen to 57 in central Vietnam as authorities step up rescue and relief operations.

Dang Thi Lanh, disaster official in the hardest-hit province of Phu Yen, says 24 more deaths were reported in the province as information trickled in from isolated areas. An additional 18 people were reported missing.

Elsewhere in the region, the storm and its subsequent flooding left another 18 people dead and seven others missing, according to disaster officials and the government's Web site.

Lanh says soldiers using speed boats continue to move people from their flooded homes and provide victims with instant noodles and water.

The storm was essentially finished by the time it reached Cambodia. - Well guess again. The remnants of Mirinae were severe enough to cause heavy flooding even after the storm alerts were stopped.

Tropical Depression 24W (Tino) dissipates

2009-11-03T10:14:00.002-06:00

The tropical depression named Tino came ashore in eastern Luzon last night and quickly dissipated. It is now just a remnant low. The region is expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms today with clody skies in the rest of the country.

Additionally, the death toll from Typhoon Mirinae (Santi) continues to rise.

Tropical depression 'Tino' weakens into low-pressure area (Philippine Star)

MANILA, Philippines - Tropical depression “Tino” weakened and dissipated yesterday but the northeast monsoon would continue to bring scattered rains over Luzon in the next two to three days, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.

Pagasa deputy administrator Nathaniel Cruz said Luzon would have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms.
--snip--
Meanwhile, the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) reported three more deaths from typhoon “Santi,” bringing the total number of fatalities to 19.
The NDCC said the deaths were due mostly to drowning and occurred in suburban Laguna and in two eastern provinces.
Three other people are missing primarily due to flash floods, the council said. Almost 16,000 people are still in evacuation centers three days after the typhoon hit.
Floodwaters remain waist-deep or higher in Laguna and in Pangasinan, after Santi dumped more rain on areas already inundated by two previous deadly storms.

Another storm heading for Philippines

2009-11-02T18:22:00.002-06:00

Tropical Depression TINO (#24W) has formed just east of Luzon and heading towards the southwest. Storm tracks are very uncertain with some projectioins showing the storm heading just north of Manila while other projections indicate that the storm willpass south of the island completely.

Tino is encountering heavy shear from monsoonal winds coming down from the northeast that is bringing cool dry air directly into its circulation.

Landfall of the center of this system is expected within 12 hours however, judging from the radar below, it appears that heavy rain will further inundate an already saturated area with even more rain.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINO [24W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005 (Typhoon 2000)

Forecast Outlook: TINO is expected to continue moving SW to WSW-ward within the next 12 to 24 hours. The 24 to 36-hr Short-Range Forecast shows the system making landfall over Northern Quezon tonight and will weaken as it crosses the rugged terrain of Sierra Madre mountains. It will be in the vicinity of Metro Manila early tomorrow morning as it dissipates into a low pressure.
TINO's circulation remains small and compact. This system is encountering increasing shear and a surge of strong NE Monsoon which is bringing cool and dry air into its circulation. As TINO makes landfall tonight, its remnants will bring scattered to widespread rains across Luzon particularly Northern Quezon, Bicol Region and Central Luzon including Metro Manila. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 150 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Tino.

Mirinae strengthens to Cat 1 typhoon just before striking Vietnam

2009-11-02T11:06:00.003-06:00

Typhoon Mirinae just barely reached typhoon strength before striking land in south central Vietnam. The storm very quickly diminished to a tropical depression and is continuing to break up as it interacts with land.

Typhoon Mirinae Weakens After Crossing Vietnam Coast (Bloomberg)

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Typhoon Mirinae weakened to a tropical depression after crossing Vietnam’s southern coast, where authorities had ordered evacuations.

The storm left at least two people dead and eight injured as of 7 p.m. local time in the southern coastal province of Phu Yen, where the storm made landfall today, according to the national Vietnam Television, citing local authorities.

Strong winds and heavy rains are expected in the central and southern coastal areas and the Central Highlands tonight, the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Center said on its Web site. People should watch for landslides in mountainous areas and floods in low-lying areas.

The depression will move westward and reach the Cambodian border by 4 a.m. tomorrow with winds of below 39 kilometers (24 miles) per hour before dissipating by Nov. 4, the center said.
About 7,900 people, mostly women, children and elderly residents in Phu Yen, Khanh Hoa and Ninh Thuan provinces, where the storm may make landfall, were evacuated as of 9 p.m. yesterday, Vietnam’s National Committee for Flood and Storm Control said in a statement.

Typhoon slams Vietnam after hitting Philippines (USA Today)

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Tropical Storm Mirinae slammed into Vietnam's central coast Monday, unleashing heavy rains and winds and forcing more than 80,000 people to evacuate before losing steam as it moved inland.

The storm was packing winds of 63 mph as it made landfall in Phu Yen province Monday afternoon, toppling trees and utility poles and causing blackouts, said Nguyen Ba Loc, deputy chairman of the provincial People's Committee.

The storm lost force and was downgraded to a tropical depression as it moved deeper inland later Monday, according to the national weather forecast center.

Development in the Atlantic

2009-11-01T18:42:00.003-06:00

An area of disturbed weather is showing increased signs of further organization and now has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression. This is currently a non-tropical gale and is associated with a frontal system. The system has steadily developed tropical or sub-tropical characteristics. The National Hurricane Center is stating that if this system loses its frontal characteristics then the potential for it to become a tropical or subtropical storm within the next 48 hours.

One interesting point is that the winds speed at the center of this system is already at 55 mph which is the same as Tropical Storm Mirinae in the Pacific. The system already has windspeed that far exceeds tropical storm force and once the circulation becomes more pronounced could quickly become a named storm.

Mirinae heading to Vietnam

2009-11-01T11:52:00.002-06:00

Tropical Storm Mirinae continues to speed across the East Sea heading towards south central Vietnam. This storm will begin dumping heavy rain tonight making landfall sometime tomorrow Nov 2.

Mirinae's Next Stop: Vietnam (AccuWeather)

Mirinae is expected to make landfall near Tuy Hoa in southern Vietnam. But, heavy rain will affect a wide area. 5-10 inches of rain is expected across the southern two thirds of Veitnam. There will be an area that receives more than 10 inches. Fortunately, the tropical storm will pass quickly.

Winds of 50-60 mph are expected along the track of Mirinae. Winds of this magnitude are strong enough to produce localized damage. A storm surge of 1-3 feet will produce some coastal flooding.

The storm is diminishing in strength but is moving quickly and will make landfall on the southern Vietnam coast by tomorrow. The storm will produce very heavy rain which will likely combine with a low pressure system that is bringing a strong cold front to the region resulting in even higher rain levels.

Storm Mirinae to lash south-central region with rain (VOV News)

Although the tropical storm is forecast to be downgraded into a depression, it is moving very fast towards the south-central coast and will dump heavy rains on the region, starting on November 2.

At 16.00 on November 1, the storm was centred at 13.7 degrees north latitude and 114.1 degrees east longitude, about 510km east of the central coast from Quang Ngai to Phu Yen provinces. It was moving west and south-west with winds gusting between 75-105km/h.
In the next 24 hours, Mirinae will move in the same direction at a speed of 20-25km/h and directly affect coastal provinces from Binh Dinh to Ninh Thuan. Tropical storm-force winds will stretch out to 200km from the centre.

Mirinae is expected to make landfall and bring heavy rains on November 3 before weakening into a tropical depression. The storm, together with a cold snap from the north, will also cause heavy rains in provinces from Thua Thien-Hue to Binh Thuan.

Typhoon Mirinae / Santi Roars Passed Manila (video)

2009-10-31T20:11:00.001-05:00

Storm chaser video posted by James Reynolds and Jim Edds:

Tropical Storm Mirinae heading for Vietnam

2009-10-31T08:20:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Mirinae has entered the South China Sea (East Sea) on a west to WSW heading towards the southern region of Vietnam. The storm has picked up speed and is expected to make landfall by Monday morning local time.

Storm Mirinae enters East Sea (VOV News)

After pounding the Philippines on October 31, typhoon Mirinae weakened into a tropical storm and entered the East Sea, becoming the 11th storm in the region.

At 16.00 on October 31, the storm was centred at 14.2 degrees north latitude and 118.2 degrees east longitude, packing winds of between 89-102km/h near its centre. In the next 24 hours it is forecast to move between west and south-west at a speed of 20-25km/h and weaken further.

At 13.00 on November 1, Mirinae is positioned 530km east of the south-central coast from Binh Dinh to Khanh Hoa provinces. Its force winds extend outward from the center to as far as 84km/h.

The storm will bring heavy rains and cause rough seas along the central coast in a couple of days, according to the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Centre.

Mosts forecasts are showing that Mirinae will continue to weaken as it approaches Vietnam. Once the storm makes landfall its strength will diminish to a tropical depression and finally dissipate over Cambodia.

TS Mirinae leaves death in its wake as it exits Philippines

2009-10-31T07:56:00.004-05:00

Tropical storm Mirinae exited the Philippines this afternoon local time having moved across the island fairly rapidly. Even so, 6 - 12 people were killed at current estimates. The reson for these deaths is not clear to me. At least one person died from drowning and one from extreme cold. Whether the others are due to flooding or due to wind damage and flying debris is not clear from the reports I've read.

'Santi' weakens into a tropical storm, leaves at least 12 dead (GMA News)

At least 12 people were reported dead due to tropical cyclone Santi (international name: Mirinae), which has weakened into a tropical storm as it moves farther away from the country on Saturday afternoon.

As Santi exits the country, only Lubang Island located northwest of Mindoro remains under Storm Signal No. 1.

Three people were killed and five others remain missing in Laguna, the province’s disaster coordinating council said.

Two of the fatalities were identified as Julieta Tagili and Margie Etaquino, both residents of Pagsanjan town in Laguna.Seven more deaths were reported in the Bicol region, one in Catanduanes and six in Camarines Norte.

According to Region 5 Disaster Coordinating Council Director Bernardo Alejandro, one of the fatalities from Camarines Norte died due to extreme cold, while the one from Catanduanes drowned in the floods caused by Santi.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC), meanwhile, said in a radio interview that two more unidentified persons were reported killed in Muntinlupa City, also due to drowning.

The area has been inundated with tropical cyclones over the past month. Now as the region begins recovery once again, there are reports that disturbed weather may be developing into new storms that could menace the area further.

Santi exits Philippines;2 more storms brewing (Business World)

TYPHOON Santi (international name:Mirinae) is forecast to exit the Philippines Sunday morning as it moves towards the South China sea, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Saturday.

In its 4 p.m. report, the weather bureau said Santi, with peak winds of 105 kilometers per hour (kph) and gusts of up to 135 kph, is moving west at 20 kph and is continuing to move away from the country.

The storm is forecast at 670 km west-southwest of the capital Sunday afternoon. Storm signal 1 is still up over Lubang island.

The weather bureau has lowered storm signals in most of Luzon Saturday afternoon as the typhoon weakened into a tropical storm.
--snip--
At least two more storms coming
In a briefing on Saturday, PAGASA administrator Prisco T. Nilo said the weather bureau expects at least two tropical cyclones to enter Philippine waters until December.
He said it is monitoring cloud formations over the Pacific Ocean which might develop into an active low pressure in the coming days.
Mr. Nilo said it is now safe to travel by land to northern and Central Luzon.
There is very minimal possibility for Santi to make a "u-turn", he said. International and local flights were allowed as of 10 a.m. Saturday.
Mr. Cruz, however, warned of storm surges in the western coast of the mainland.

Landfall knocks the wind out of Mirinae

2009-10-30T19:37:00.002-05:00

Typhoon Mirinae is not a tropical storm shortly after making landfall on the east coast of central Luzon. Indication is that much of the convection around the storm center has dissipated and while there is still circulation around its center, there is very little likelihood that the storm will strengthen.

Public Advisory from Weather Underground

302100z position near 14.3n 121.0e.
Tropical storm 23w (mirinae), located approximately 90 nm east-southeast of Manila, Philippines has tracked westward at 16 knots over the past six hours. Mirinae has been downgraded to tropical storm strength. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows ts 23w has moved over the eastern coast of Luzon, with a large decrease in convection near the low level circulation center (LLCC). A 301710zAMSR-E pass shows tightly curved banding continuing to wrap into the northern portion of the LLCC, however, deep convection along the eastern half of ts 23w has started to dissipate. Land influences have weakened the system dramatically over the past 06 hours (from85 to 55 knots).

Advisory from Typhoons 2000 on Tropical Storm Mirinae (Santi/23W)

MIRINAE (SANTI) shrinks and weakened into a Tropical Storm while traversing Southern Tagalog Provinces. The weakening core made landfall over Mauban, Quezon around 2 AM...and is now over Tagaytay City...expected to pass over Nasugbu, Batangas in the next few hours. Strong winds and rainfall are just concentrated over Batangas.

Forecast Outlook: The weakening core (eye & eyewall) of MIRINAE is expected to weaken further as it emerge over the South China Sea later after passing Batangas. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MIRINAE accelerating towards Vietnam while cruising the South China Sea as a strong tropical storm.
It will make landfall over Vietnam on Monday, November 02.

As quickly as this storm is moving, Mirinae may pass over Luzon by late tomorrow which is good news for the region. The last thing that is needed in Manila is a slow moving storm. If Mirinae's forward motion continues at the current pace of 16 knots or faster then the storm will pass quickly over the island and will soon be crossing the South China Sea (Known in Vietnam as the East Sea).

Mirinae is expected to remain at tropical storm strngth as it crosses the East Sea and then dissipate as it makes landfall in southern Vietnam crossing into Cambodia.

Storm Mirinae to head towards south-central region (VOV News)

The south-central coast is bracing itself for tropical storm Mirinae which is moving towards the East Sea and is forecast to hit south-central provinces in a couple of days.

According to the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Centre, in the next 24 hours the storm is forecast to move between west and south-west at a speed of 20-25km/h. It will enter the East Sea on the morning of October 31 and cause rough seas.

Mirinae strikes the Philippines

2009-10-30T15:37:00.002-05:00

Typhoon Mirinae struck the Philippine island of Luzon this morning (Saturday) local time as a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of 90 mph (145 km/hr) according to the Associated Press. The storm is bringing heavy rain to metro Manila where some areas are still flooded.

Typhoon Mirinae hits Philippines (Al Jazeera)

Typhoon Mirinae has made landfall in eastern Philippines, and is approaching Manila, the capital.

Officials said on Friday that thousands of people have been evacuated from Manila in expectation of the advance of the fourth typhoon to hit the country in the last two months.

Areas of the capital with more than a million residents remain flooded from the recent storms, in which more than 1,000 people died.

Typhoon Mirinae, a category two typhoon with winds of up to 185 kms an hour, is expected to bring heavy showers.

Residents were evacuated from coastal regions as well as metropolitan areas as Mirinae came ashore.

Philippines Orders Evacuations as Typhoon Strikes (Bloomberg)

Philippine authorities carried out evacuations and airlines moved planes to safer locations as Typhoon Mirinae slammed into the archipelago, where about 1,100 people have died in cyclones this year.

Evacuations were ordered in the island province of Catanduanes and the coastal areas of Quezon province, where Mirinae’s eye made landfall, police and disaster agency officials said. The Associated Press said the storm, which came ashore just after midnight, had winds of about 90 mph (145 kph), and was on the same path as a September storm that submerged parts of the capital, Manila.

Philippine Airlines and Cebu Pacific Air, the nation’s biggest carriers, canceled or delayed flights to and from Manila and said they had moved aircraft to central airports, away from the typhoon’s path. Thousands were stranded as the government banned vessels from taking to sea, according to the Coast Guard.

Mirinae is the 4th typhoon to lash at the northern half of Luzon in the past month but is also the 5th storm to make landfall in this time as Parma crossed three times over the same area. The previous storm to threaten the area, Lupit, made a remarkable U-turn just as it approached the coast. It never made landfall but did dump a fair amount of rain on some of the northern islands before heading to the north and hitting Okinawa.

4th typhoon in month lashes struggling Philippines (USA Today)

The fourth typhoon to lash the Philippines in a month brought pounding rain and winds to the eastern coast early Saturday as it barreled toward Manila along the same path as an earlier storm that left the capital still partially submerged.

Thousands were evacuated from their homes in the eastern province of Quezon, where Typhoon Mirinae made landfall after midnight, as rains threatened to unleash mudslides.

In Manila, residents hunkered down in their homes as rains beat down on dark, deserted streets. The typhoon was expected to pass south of the sprawling city of 12 million later Saturday morning with winds of 93 miles per hour and gusts of up to 115 mph, said chief government forecaster Nathaniel Cruz.

Mirinae was tracking the same route as Tropical Storm Ketsana on Sept. 26 when it dumped the heaviest rains in 40 years in and around Manila — a month's worth in just 12 hours — leaving hundreds dead and thousands stranded in cars, on rooftops and in trees.

Fwd: TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon MIRINAE

2009-10-29T16:32:00.001-05:00

Mirinae is closing in on Luzon Island with the probablilities for landfall increasing significantly.

Typhoon 2000 (www.typhoon2000.ph) forecast outlook is as follows:

MIRINAE's forecast outlook remained slightly the same...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon on Saturday. The 2 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region tomorrow night - passing more or less 180 km. North of Naga City around 11 PM. The core (eye and eyewall) will pass close to Polillo Island around 6 AM Saturday and make landfall between Infanta, Quezon and Baler, Aurora around 9 AM as a Category 2 typhoon w/ winds of 160 kph. It will then cross Nueva Ecija around 10 AM - passing very close to Cabanatuan City and will move across Tarlac around noontime...and over the Zambales Mountains around 4 PM Saturday. On Sunday, November 01, MIRINAE will be over the South China Sea and will make its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. This system will dissipate over Cambodia on Nov 03.

MIRINAE's convective circulation has regenerated and strengthening as it moves closer to Luzon. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The outer rainbands of MIRINAE has started to spread slowly across the Bicol Region - deteriorating today as the typhoon approaches. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae.

The concerns include flooding, especially in areas both within city limits and surrounding areas that are still flooded from earlier typhoons. Mudslides and flash floods are also anticipated on steep slopes. Possible storm surge flooding of 6 - 8 feet above normal tideas along the coast are expected.

Storm Alert from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued at 29 Oct, 2009 18:00 GMT

Typhoon MIRINAE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Typhoon Mirinae (Santi) threatens Manila

2009-10-29T12:57:00.002-05:00

Forecasts for Typhoon Santi (internationally named Mirinae), continue to shift from the storm passing over the northern part of Luzon to it making a direct hit on metro Manila. Either way, the difference will not be significant and the city has been warned to expect heavy rain beginning tomorrow (Friday).

Pagasa expects intense `Santi’ before it hits land Saturday (Inquirer)

Residents in storm-weary Luzon were told to prepare for Typhoon Santi (international name: Mirinae) which is expected to make landfall Saturday, with rain forecast for flood-ravaged Metro Manila.

Santi, packing maximum sustained winds of up to 150 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 185 kph, was expected to intensify before it slams into Aurora province on Saturday afternoon, the state weather bureau Pagasa said.
"We should expect Santi to become a very intense typhoon in the next several hours or days," Pagasa spokesman Nathaniel Cruz said.

Storm signals have been hoisted over 16 Luzon provinces and residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes with storm signals were told to take precautionary easures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

People in coastal villages were warned of possible storm surges and big waves which might be triggered by the typhoon.

This typhoon has also been difficult to predict its eventual intensity at landfall. Earlier predictions indicated that Mirinae would be a Category 3 typhoon as it made landfall. Forecasts for the past 24 hours have been steady with Mirinae remaining at Category 2 strength, which is its current strength level. Even so, Philippine authorities are warning residents to prepare for a severe storm.

'Santi' intensifies, to bring heavy rains to 18 northern provinces (Philippine Star)

MANILA, Philippines (Xinhua) -- The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has placed 3 areas under storm signal number two and 15 areas under signal number one as typhoon "Santi" intensified and continued moving toward Luzon, northern Philippines.

In a weather bulletin issued Thursday afternoon, Pagasa has placed Aurora , Northern Quezon and Polillo islands under storm signal number two. The following provinces are placed under storm signal number one: Isabela, Ifugao, Quirino, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, rest of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes.

Typhoon "Santi" is expected to bring more rain and have winds more powerful than typhoon "Pepeng" which battered northern Luzon early this month.

Typhoon Santi threatening to hit Central Luzon, Metro Manila (Business World)

TYPHOON SANTI (international name: Mirinae) is expected to make landfall over Aurora-northern Quezon tomorrow morning, with Metro Manila experiencing stormy weather Friday night and Central Luzon likely bearing the brunt, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA) said yesterday.

"Santi is moving west at 20 kilometers per hour (kph) and increases its threat to Central Luzon" according to the weather bureau’s 5 p.m. forecast, said PAGASA chief forecaster Nathaniel A. Cruz in a press briefing.

The bureau, which does not see Santi changing its path compared to typhoon Pepeng (Parma) and Ramil (Lupit) due to a high pressure area at the South China Sea, may consider raising storm signal 3 over Metro Manila Friday evening, he added.

For his part, PAGASA administrator Prisco D. Nilo noted in the same event that the high pressure area could push Santi to a south-southwest path, directly hitting the capital. "The high pressure area controls the movement of the Santi."

The storm, with peak winds of 150 kph and gusts of up to 185 kph, is forecast at 360 kilometers (km) east of Baler, Aurora this afternoon, Mr. Cruz said, with the eye forecast at 90 km north of Manila Saturday afternoon.

Mirinae strengthens to typhoon

2009-10-28T16:34:00.005-05:00

Typhoon Mirinae now has sustained winds of of 95 MPH with gusts as high as 120 MPH. As the graphic above shows, all agencies have projected that the track of this storm will continue essentially due west and cross around the center of Luzon just to the north of Manila. Landfall is expected over the weekend.

Typhoon threatens to hit land on Nov. 1 (Philippine Daily Inquirer)

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the storm—internationally designated as “Mirinae”—had developed into a typhoon with peak winds of 140 kilometers per hour gusting up to 170 kph.
At 10 p.m. Wednesday, PAGASA located Mirinae in the Pacific 1,210 km east of Central Luzon, moving west at 24 kph.
Forecaster Robert Sawi said that Mirinae—locally named “Santi” as it entered the Philippine area of responsibility late Wednesday—was likely to hit northern or central Luzon on Saturday.
“There will be lots of rain when the storm comes,” Sawi said.
He said that based on the erratic nature of previous storms, Mirinae could slow down. It is unlikely to change course, he said, because of a high-pressure area north of the country.
“That ridge is serving like an umbrella blocking a northward course,” he said.

The timing of Mirinae's landfall has officials very concerned. November 1 is the Roman Catholic feast of All Saint's Day. It is tradition in the Philippines for people to visit the gravesites of their lost relatives on this day. The government is asking people to go early to the cemetary - maybe Thursday or Friday - to avoid being trapped by heavy flooding.

New typhoon could spoil Philippines' tradition to honour dead (Earth Times)

Manila - The Philippine government on Wednesday advised Filipinos against flocking to cemeteries to honour their dead on the weekend when a new typhoon could hit the country. Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said Typhoon Mirinae was forecast to hit Friday night or Saturday when Filipinos were expected to start trooping to the provinces ahead of All Saint's Day.
All Saint's Day on November 1 is the traditional day for Filipinos to visit the graves of their dead. Tens of thousands even stay overnight in the cemeteries.
"Let us avoid visiting our relatives at the cemeteries and if they really need to make a visit, we can do it earlier, before Sunday," Teodoro said. He said the government was making the early warning to ensure that the public was prepared.
"We see difficulties if our countrymen are not aware of the coming typhoon and they are planning to visit their relatives at the cemeteries," he said.
"They may be trapped there and this may cause traffic congestion in the streets ... and may delay the response and relief efforts that may be needed to be done," he added.

Tropical Storm Mirinae continues to strengthen

2009-10-27T15:50:00.002-05:00

TS #23 was named today as Tropical Storm Mirinae. Mirinae was originally forecast to pass to the north of Guam but instead shifted even further north crossing near Rota, Saipan and Tinian.

Tropical storm passes north of Rota, not Guam (Pacific Daily News)

A small tropical storm that was forecast to pass just north of Guam instead passed north of Rota yesterday morning, said National Weather Service meteorologist Clint Simpson yesterday.
Parts of northern Guam may have felt some 30 mph gusts and heavy showers, but that is not abnormal on any day, he said.
Rota, Saipan and Tinian felt stronger winds, he said.
"This is another situation where, here on Guam we should ... count our blessings that the storm was far enough away that it did not have a heavy impact on our community," Simpson said. "If it had been 20 or 30 miles south of its original track, it would have been a very noticeable and even could have caused some local damage."

Mirinae continued to strengthen today reaching sustained winds in excess of 50 MPH. Intensity predictions earlier today showed a steady increase in windspeed until the storm made landfall with Category 3 strength winds. Current indications are that there may be a slight weakening of Mirinae just prior to making landfall. This may be a benefit considering that the area is still recovering from TS Ketsana and Typhoon Parma.

Tropical Storm Mirinae likely to become next typhoon to strike the Philippines (Examiner)

Continuing to gain strength, a tropical disturbance in the Pacific became Tropical Storm Mirinae today. This latest storm is on a track that will have it make a direct hit on the Philippines just as the nation is trying to recover from two previous storms.

The new storm has winds that have increased to 52 mph, gusting to 64 mph and is forecast to reach typhoon strength equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane in the next 12 hours. Additional strengthening is expected through Friday at which time Mirinae will be nearing the Philippines with winds of 115 mph (Category 3).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects some weakening after 72 hours which is good news for the Philippines. Current forecasts have to storm making landfall in southern or central Luzon on Saturday as a Category 1 storm with winds just over 80 mph. Manila remains in a direct line to be hit by the storm.

TS 23 to cross over Guam tomorrow

2009-10-26T15:19:00.002-05:00

Before menacing the Philippines, Tropical Storm 23 will strike Guam with 40 + MPH winds and heavy rain.

Lurking storm to pass Guam at noon (KUAM)

Maximum sustained winds associated with 23-W are 40 MPH and the storm is expected to intensify over the next 24 hours after it passes the Marianas. Island residents can expect increasing showers and thunderstorms beginning late this morning into the afternoon. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 4.

Meanwhile, Saipan has been declared in Condition of Readiness 2 with the possibility of damaging winds.

It is important to remember that the majority of storms that have hit the Philippines, Taiwan, Hainan and Vietnam this season have all crossed Guam either as a depression, tropical storm or even a low grade typhoon.

Another typhoon heading for the Philippines

2009-10-26T15:00:00.002-05:00

A fourth tropical storm has formed in the western Pacific that is heading towards the Philippines. This system is currently Tropical Storm 23 and is expected to strengthen as it approaches Luzon Island over the next 5 days.

Currently the storm track indicates that this storm will plow into Manila as a Category 3 typhoon early Saturday, but the uncertainty is such that the entire northern Philippines are at risk. As the week continues on we will know better if this track will hold or if it will shift in either direction.

Weather Underground is reporting that this storm has sustained winds of 40 MPH with gusts of 50 making it a low grade tropical storm. The storm has pulled together and is currently moving faster than expected to the west northwest. The storm will steadily intensify until reaching typhoon strength in approximately 3 days. After that intensification will continue until reaching Cat 3 strength with peak winds of 100 knots shortly before making landfall.

Typhoon 2000 reports that a high pressure ridge is building just north of the storm which will be the primary steering current that will bring this storm into the Philippine Sea and towards metro Manila.

Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): The latest ECMWF 7-day extended forecast
shows the system hitting Northern Bicol, Southern Tagalog Provinces including
Metro Manila on Saturday or Sunday (Oct 30-Nov 01).

Tropical Storm Lupit (Ramil) shifts to the north

2009-10-23T13:58:00.002-05:00

Lupit has now diminished to a tropical storm and has taken the shift in its path to the north as predicted by AccuWeather and others yesterday. This storm track will result in only a small portion of Luzon being hit while most of the rain is concentrated further north.

Tropical storm Ramil shifts path (Business World Online)

TROPICAL STORM Ramil (international name: Lupit), interacting with two weather disturbances, has changed anew its path and may only hit islands off northern Luzon, the weather bureau said Friday, giving a breather to storm-weary residents.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), in its 4 p.m. report, said two high pressure areas over the Philippine and South China seas have weakened the howler and slowed down its movement.
With a slightly changing path that may even skirt the tip of Northern Luzon, Ramil’s peak winds have slowed down to 105 kilometers per hour (kph) with gusts of 135 kph. Almost remaining stationary, it is forecast at 105 km east of Aparri, Cagayan Saturday afternoon, 115 km northeast of the provincial capitol Sunday afternoon and 140 km north-northeast Monday morning.
Signal 3 remains hoisted over the provinces of Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte and the islands of Babuyan and Calayan; signal 2 covers Abra Ilocos Sur, Kalinga, Isabela and Mountain Province; and signal 1 is over La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino and northern Aurora.

Flooding is still likely as 25 mm - 200 mm or more of rain fall on the islands of Bubuyan and Cagayan. Rain fall amounts from this storm are shown in teh latest eTRAP graphic from NOAA:

Tropical storm Lupit brings flooding to Ilan (Taiwan News)

Despite the storm’s slow progress, rain caused flooding in Ilan City, causing traffic problems. In the Ilan County township of Toucheng, 250 teachers and students at a school were forced to move to other classrooms as the first floor was flooded.
Taipei’s Shuanghsi area recorded the most rainfall, 400mm for the period from Thursday morning to yesterday afternoon or 274mm for the first 14 hours of Friday. During the same period, Toucheng in Ilan County recorded 267mm and Pinglin in Taipei County 219mm.
More than 300 people left Green Island for Taitung yesterday morning ahead of a suspension of ferry services between the two from 10:00 a.m. until the end of the weekend, reports said. More remote Orchid Island ordered all schools and offices closed yesterday.
Lupit was originally thought to move across the Northern Philippines in the direction of China, but Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau was the first to suggest it could stay above the Philippines and then make a right turn to move northeast toward Japan.

Major Hurricane Neki churns in the Pacific

2009-10-22T20:24:00.002-05:00

Hurricane Neki formed a few days ago in the central Pacific southwest of the Hawaiian Islands and has grown to a Category 3 storm. Johnston Islands received a direct hit yesterday but there is no threat to the Hawaiian Islands other than higher than normal surf on the southwest beaches.

Major Hurricane Neki in Central Pacific (AccuWeather)

Category 3 Hurricane Neki continues to thrive in the central Pacific Ocean several hundred miles west-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. As of Thursday evening, Neki was located about 540 miles west of Honolulu, Hawaii, with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph.

Although Neki will remain in an area of light wind shear, it will be encountering cooler waters as it heads north. As a result, a gradual weakening trend is expected through this weekend.

Neki will continue on a general northerly path over the next couple of days, which will keep it well away from the Hawaiian Islands. The storm is expected to pass between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef around Friday morning, local time.

Philippines may be spared direct hit

2009-10-22T19:40:00.003-05:00

Two high pressure systems are acting to steer Typhoon Lupit away from a direct strike on Luzon Island. AccuWeather is reporting that it appears that Lupit will veer to the north and miss the northern Philippine Island.

Lupit to Miss Philippines But Still Cause Flooding (AccuWeather)

The worst impact of Typhoon Lupit now looks set to miss the storm-ravaged north of the Philippines. Lupit is expected to veer northward and thus spare Luzon the worst of its destructive wind, though flooding rain and locally damaging winds are still expected over northern Luzon.

Thursday morning, EDT, the center of Lupit was 350 miles northeast of Manila with a westerly drift at 6 mph. Highest sustained winds were near 75 mph -- still those of a Category 1 storm, yet far below last weekend's Category-4 winds of then-Super Typhoon Lupit.

Lupit will continue to drift to the north and east of Luzon Island over the Philippine Sea over the next day or two as the area of high pressure that has been steering Lupit has weakened. This area of high pressure is expected to regain strength over the weekend and will cause Lupit to veer northeastward and thus away from the Philippines, rather than making a potentially devastating westward transit of northern Luzon.

The strengthening of the high over the western Pacific is expected to pull the storm towards the north and into Taiwan. Additionally, as the high over south China was acting as a block preventing any northward movement. As this high weakens, there will be nothing preventing Lupit from initially drifting and then driving northward.

Even with the center of the storm missing landfall, the potential for flooding remains very high. Heavy rain associated with the outer bands of the storm are currently coming ashore and will continue to do so for the next day or two until Lupit moves out of the Philippines area of responsibility. The islands are already being affected by the storm surge and rising waters from this storm, which is known as "Typhoon Ramil" locally.

Rising sea levels, brownouts mark coming of ‘Ramil’ (GMA News.TV)

Rising sea level that forced the evacuation of 65 families and power interruptions heralded the coming of typhoon "Ramil" (international name Lupit) in Cagayan Valley, the National Disaster Coordinating Council said Thursday night.

In its 6 p.m. report, the NDCC said some 65 families or 182 people were evacuated after a 20-meter seawall collapsed in San Antonio village in Aparri town Tuesday. The evacuees included 41 from Maura village and 24 from San Antonio village.

Sixteen families were preemptively evacuated from Pilig Abajo village in Cabagan town in Isabela province to the town gymnasium.

The NDCC also noted unscheduled power interruptions in areas managed by the Cagayan Electric Cooperative since 9:30 a.m. Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit slowing down as it aopproaches Luzon

2009-10-22T10:25:00.002-05:00

Typhoon Lupit has been steadily weakening as it apporaches the northern tip of Luzon. However it is also slowing down its forward motion. A lingering storm in any one area increases teh potential for flooding.

The analysis from Weather Underground is that the storm is floundering around between two weak steering currents. The concensus model appears to be that the storm is being slowly directed to the north. One track I saw almost indicates that the eye of the storm will pass to the north of the island. Even with a much more northerly track, the heavy rain will still impact the main island as well as all of the much smaller islands in the northern part of the Philippines.

The good news is that Lupit is barely hanging on as a typhoon. Dry air and interaction with land will break up the storm and it is expected to drop to tropical storm strength.

Forecast Outlook from Typhoon 2000:

LUPIT is expected to continue decelerating further to just 2 kph while moving Westward w/in the next 24 to 48 hours. Its wind speed will slightly re-intensify as it moves closer near the coast of Cagayan. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT still at a snail-pace motion as it begins turning WNW into the Balintang Channel, passing north of Cagayan on Monday until Tuesday (Oct 26-27).

*Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurve towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as majority of various numerical guidance models depicts this scenario.

Due to the potential for Lupit to take a northern track, Taiwan is now going on alert in preparation for this storm.

Premier orders early preparedness for Typhoon Lupit (e Taiwan News)

At 11 a.m. Thursday, the storm was centered about 540 km east- southeast of Taiwan's southernmost tip of Eluanbi, moving at a speed of 9-5 kph in a west-southwesterly direction toward the northern region of Luzon Island in the Philippines, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

The bureau has forecast that the typhoon, which combined with the northeastern monsoon, brought rain to northern and eastern Taiwan Wednesday, will continue to bring wet weather to Taiwan until next Tuesday.

Although the storm is weakening, CWB meteorologists said it could change course Friday or Saturday and move in a more northerly direction toward Taiwan.

The bureau may issue a sea warning against the typhoon on Friday at the earliest if the storm changes its course and moves toward Taiwan.

Northern and eastern parts of Taiwan are expected to be most affected by the heavy rains which the typhoon is expected to bring to Taiwan in the following days.

Tropical Depression Rick races inland

2009-10-21T16:38:00.002-05:00

Early this morning, local time Tropical Storm Rick made landfall on the Mexican mainland near Mazatlan after passing to the south of Baja California. Rick came ashore with winds of 55 MPH which is a major releif compared to the 180 MPH winds Rick earlier in its travels.

Tropical storm hits Mexican resort, topples trees (Houston Chronicle)

MAZATLAN, Mexico — Tropical Storm Rick hit Mexico's Pacific coast just north of the resort of Mazatlan on Wednesday, toppling trees and signs, after sparing Los Cabos on the Baja California peninsula a direct blow.

The center of the storm made landfall around 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) with winds of about 55 mph (90 kph), kicking up high waves that drew residents of Mazatlan to the city's seaside boulevard to watch the spectacle.

After moving over land, the storm dissipated by the afternoon, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Authorities had no immediate reports of significant damage, though a steady rain had pelted the city since late Tuesday and several trees were toppled by the storm's winds. Electricity was knocked out in parts of the city, Sinaloa Gov. Jesus Aguilar told local media.

Rick is now a tropical depression and is moving rapidly across the Mexican mainland on its way to the southern US. The depression is located approximately in the center of northern Mexico and looks like it will enter South Texas as a remnant low pressure system before morning.

Weather Channel Tropical Update

Weather Channel Tropical Update

2009-10-20T20:32:00.003-05:00

Link to the Weather Channel's 6:50 pm EDT update

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?from=email&bcpid=823425597&bclid=877032950&bctid=959746457

Hurricane expert Dr. Steve Lyons covers information on the disturbance in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Rick heading just south of Baja California, Tropical Storm Neki in the Central Pacific and Typhoon Lupit near the Philippines.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm RICK

2009-10-20T19:49:00.001-05:00

Tropical sotrm Rick is now coming ashore in the most southern portion of Baja California. Rick has been downgraded to a tropical storm and continues to lose strength. He is expected to be a topical depression before striking the mainland tomorrow.

Moisture from the remnants of this storm will then spread across south Texas which is in great need of rain due to a deep drought that has been in place since before the summer. By the end of the week, rain from Rick will spread across the entire southland into northern Alabama and Georgia.

Storm Alert issued at 20 Oct, 2009 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm RICK is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
Culiacan (24.8 N, 107.4 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Durango (24.0 N, 104.7 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Super Typhoon Lupit setting its sights on Luzon

2009-10-19T17:25:00.002-05:00

Typhoon Lupit continued to strengthen over the weekend and shifted its course to the north in a zigzag that gave the false impression that this storm could pass to the north of Philippines northern island. Instead the Category 4 storm is slowly turning towards the west-southwest.

Typhoon 2000 is indicating that there is a slight potential for Lupit to be steered more towards the south which to me appears that it could hit the island head on. This scenario will only occur if the high pressure system off eastern China builds and pushes the storm southward. Even so, the storm track has consistently been projected to pass over anywhere from the northern tip of the island to as far south as to be near Manila.

Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to start accelerating and turning more westerly w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will continue to decrease as it moves closer to Northern Luzon.

The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT moving into a WSW direction, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and extends across Ryukyu & Okinawan Islands. This ridge will steer LUPIT into Extreme Northern Luzon...making landfall over Northern Cagayan between 2 to 4 PM on Thursday Oct 22...passing directly or very close to Aparri.

The core (eye & eyewall) of LUPIT shall cross Abra, Kalinga and exit over Ilocos Sur Thursday evening and shall be over the South China Sea Friday, Oct 23 - turning West to WNW towards Hainan Island-Vietnam Area on Saturday Oct 24.

*Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track more WSW-ward earlier than expected with a strike across the southern part of Northern Luzon thru Isabela Province or Southern Cagayan. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China strengthens more and dig deeper southward. The probability of this alternate forecast still remains low.
Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Typhoon Lupit continues on path to Philippines (Examiner)

For the storm weary Philippines, the latest forecast models do not bear good news. The JTWC is now forecasting the path of the storm to make a direct hit on Luzon. Early models indicated it may pass to the north of the island. Sometime near 24 hours from now the storm is forecast to turn toward the west-southwest setting the storm on a path for Luzon.
Lupit is expected to lose some strength as it continues toward the Philippines. Dry air and increased shear are playing a factor despite the fact the hurricane remains over warm water. By the time it reaches the Philippines the storm is forecast to be packing 100 mph sustained winds and gusts to 126 mph – the equivalent of a Category 2 storm.
Assuming the forecast holds true, Lupit will become the third major storm to strike the storm weary Philippines in recent weeks. Much of the northern part of the nation suffered through Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) and Tropical Storm Ketsana (Ondoy). The storms brought deluges of rain and caused mudslides and flooding that claimed more than 900 lives. The Cagayan-Aparri area is in particular danger due to already saturated ground from the previous storms.