Reflections of a Nonsensical Nerd

P2k Commander for Ubuntu

2009-04-20T00:47:00.006-05:00

OK, after I got my cell phone, I went looking for a program that would allow me to put files onto it and otherwise customize it. I own a Motorola RAZR V3xx. Turned out that was not so easy. The moto4lin program was supposed to do it for me, but no love there . . . They don't support RAZR V3xx. I tried some other programs and none came even close to providing what moto4lin attempted to provide.

Finally, I found something that actually does allow me to interact with a (relatively) modern Motorola phone just fine! It's called P2k Commander and there's a Linux version as well as a Windows version. Seemed perfect! I downloaded the source for p2kc 0.6 and got started. And it was pretty good, but there were some things I wanted to fix in the code . . . So, I did! (Got to love truly free software!) Also, I figured it could stand to be cleaned-up and packaged for Ubuntu. So, I did that, too!

If you'd like to try P2k Commander on Ubuntu, download this package. (If you're running the AMD64 architecture of Ubuntu, use this package instead, but if you're not sure, stick to the default i386 architecture package that will work best for almost all Ubuntu users out there.) Finally, if you're a developer interested in the package sources, you can find those here.

I might eventually create an Ubuntu repository for these packages, but I'm not to sure I can actually provide that, so we'll see . . . In the meantime, once you've downloaded the package, install it like so:

sudo dpkg -i p2kc_0.6-0ubuntu1_i386.deb

or:

sudo dpkg -i p2kc_0.6-0ubuntu1_amd64.deb

Then go to your Applications menu and select the P2kCommander launcher (which should be under "Accessories" or "Utilities" or something like that). You'll be asked to enter your password to gain administrative privileges.

After that, you'll need to connect your phone with a USB cable. And then you should be able to view, change, and copy files on the phone by selecting "P2k: /e" or one of the other "P2k" entries. So far, it's allowed me to add ringtones and other files to my phone with little trouble!!! It also allows me to download pictures off my phone and retreive audio files recorded on the phone (which are recorded as AMR files and can only be played with this app, so far as I know). This has opened up a lot of new uses for my phone to me!

I hope this helps someone else. And if you do like this app, show some appreciation to Sándor Ötvös AKA s5vi, who created P2kCommander in the first place.

Finally, if you're interested in the Windows version, you can get that at his site as well: http://www.el-co.hu/smf/.

Thomas Geoghegan On Infinite Debt

2009-03-25T15:35:00.003-05:00

Thomas Geoghegan speaks to one of the most pressing issues in our current economic downturn: the explosion of usury in the United States. He explains, yet again, Marquette National v. First of Omaha, the abysmal Supreme Court decision which partly precipitated the current state of affairs. It's really worth giving a listen, if you can find the time.

"Too Big To Fail" No More?

2009-03-19T13:59:00.003-05:00

Sheila Bair, head of the FDIC, has some interesting things to say here about how we should regulate and insure the various financial institutions that have become "too big to fail." As she says, nothing should ever be too big and unregulated to fail. Here's hoping a system can be devised that closely approaches "the end of 'too big to fail,'" which is probably a phrase we'll have to retire all too soon in any case, as the expense of continually bailing out the rich and powerful very likely will become too high to sustain, especially as the needs of the increasingly poor and dispossessed populace will require greater attention to prevent vast instability . . .

Also, I encourage you to listen to this interview of Elizabeth Warren (MP3), who is one of my favorite economists. She's currently heading up the Congressional Oversight Panel (WikiP) that's supposed to expose what's done with the TARP monies. It's a fascinating listen. The most significant thing I gleened from this is that (1) we overpaid for the preferred stock (which has since been converted to common stock in such a way that even more money was lost) that was bought with TARP funds and (2) we overpaid more for the stock of banks that were in bigger trouble (like Citibank and Bank of America) than we overpaid for banks that are relatively sound for the moment. Basically, the "capitol injection" plan that was implemented by the purchase of preferred stock (since converted to common stock) in banks was actually used as a back-door way to hand more "free" money to the banks in the most trouble, but to do it in such a way that no one could tell from the purchase (without careful analysis that couldn't be done quickly) which banks were getting the most money from the deal and which were getting the least, presumably to conceal from nervous investors that some banks were in a lot more trouble than others.

How long will vast amounts of taxpayer funds be given away to the largest and most irresponsible corporations (supposedly to "save the economy")? How much more of our public assets must be handed to the wealthiest before we downsize and break-up these corporate interests so as to really begin to salvage the economy and help average people in helping us all to rebuild it on a firmer foundation? The current tempest in a teapot is actually small potatoes compared to the real scandal of overpayment going on here . . .

Bad Banks (and how and why they are about to mess you up)

2009-03-03T13:27:00.005-06:00

The latest episode of This American Life (mp3 download) is all about the banking crisis and gives a pretty good rundown of what's happening if you don't know a lot about banking or economics.

There is a point in the episode where, in my opinion (and seemingly, their own), they get to the heart of the matter: American consumer debt has risen to 100% of annual GDP, or "the total annual economic output of the United States." Now, they basically say that it's the fault of the consumers, which many (including myself and Dean Baker) would dispute, but the basic analysis here is dead-on: the use of credit in the United States is entirely unsustainable in reality, no matter how worthy or profitable it seems that it used to be. Every level of American society (average consumers, businesses of all sizes and most all types, the federal government, and government at many other levels) has way too much debt. The amount of money being lent out is more than the money the country generates. You simply cannot live like that. You can't borrow against your whole income every year and function. Period.

So, this is gonna suck and this is why. Hope y'all can get something out of this one . . .

The "Citi can't fail" attitude

2009-02-27T09:32:00.004-06:00

I've been expecting Citi to have massive problems since at least early December and long found them to be a creepy and dangerous business model, ever since I learned about the creation of the company, which occurred a little over ten years ago after laws passed during the Great Depression were weakened and changed so that horrible, monopolistic financial behemoths riddled with conflicts of interest could be created again.

How much taxpayer money will be poured into this Titanic mistake before this company comes to an end, whether through outright nationalization, some kind of orderly bankruptcy, or some other form of orderly collapse managed with even more massive amounts of taxpayer cash?

The deal today just eliminated tons and tons of guarantees on the taxpayer money that was given to these banks before by converting the preferred stock the U.S. bought in the company into common stock. So, now when the company falls, all that taxpayer money will be irretreivably lost. But somehow this will prop-up the company and "protect" us all . . . I have a feeling some bank execs will be protect all the way to their offshore account ballances . . . Once again, I hope to be wrong about all this, but I haven't been wrong as much as I would have liked to be lately . . . :-p

Skeptical view from the left

2009-02-25T10:00:00.002-06:00

Well, Obama delivered a masterful speech last night and promised to do some good things for folks. Mostly, he seems to be interested in trying to drive the economy with tax cuts on the bottom and reimplementing taxes at the top, slightly reimplementing our progressive tax structures of the more prosperous past after many years of increasing regression, while continuing massive bailouts of huge private corporations, which we are then vaguely promised will be reregulated. Oh, and after Obama explained that we have all borrowed too much, he explained how he'll save the economy by reigniting lending. I have a lot of doubt that we can rebuild the American economy from the top down while we continue to fight two wars and while the purchasing power of the average American (long financed by tremendous debt) continues to shrink and we try to make sure that everyone can borrow more in the interim, but I'm stubborn like that . . .

The Real News Network interviewed Thomas Palley on these issues and I thought some very fine insights resulted:

Dean Baker has also been providing great and accurate commentary on the bailouts.

I would like for myself and all these critics to have it wrong, but it's so hard to believe that paying all this money to failing companies near the top of our economy, where too much wealth is concentrated and too many near-monopolies run major industries and most banking and finance, will actually restart the economic engine that makes the world hum with vigor and prosperity. I think only spreading prosperity to average people will do that and I don't really see that plan on the table yet . . . I believe that until the fantastic disparities of wealth are addressed, we'll be in trouble.

Barack Hussein Obama is President!

2009-01-20T11:01:00.005-06:00

It's a happy day in America. We'll be inaugurating a president who symbolizes new aspirations for so many of us and there is perhaps even a fair chance that this "symbol" will put some reality behind the rhetoric over the next few years (though I worry he and the Democrats in Congress will not, as do others).

I would have enjoyed seeing and hearing the inauguration events, but work intervened. It sounds like it was quite an inspiring event . . .

OK, so this is the last day you'll be seeing this on my blog's sidebar . . .

Bush countdown!

Get this widget!

And then it's got to
get better . . . right?

The Bush administration is finally over! :-D I have to hope that the creation and exacerbation of problems we've come to expect during the past eight years is at least at an end . . . I'm vitually certain we've at least cleared that low bar and that alone gives me a vast sense of relief!!! And now we get to watch and see how the new administrations handles the vast panorama of problems they've inherited . . .

When the Citi falls . . .

2009-01-16T11:37:00.002-06:00

OK, so I was expecting Citigroup to fall before the holidays started (and I blogged a bit before about their creepy Primerica unit) and since the new year, they seem to be well on their way to collapse. Perhaps the "good bank/bad bank" split will allow a shell of their former selves to soldier on intact, but I have my doubts about even that. I still feel it's more likely for Citi to end up a pile of financial rubble that cannot be salvaged, only canibalized.

When Citi falls, though, it's going to take large chunks of the economy down with it. Huge numbers of consumers will be withdrawing funds through the FDIC, further raising the national debt. And then perhaps Bank of America will fall (though I think they have a better chance of making it than Citi) . . . If they both fall, Depression will likely soon follow . . .

Given the amount of government money that's been handed to Citi so far, it will be a shame to watch it all wash down the tubes . . . Again, I hope to be wrong . . .

I am engaged!

2009-01-15T09:26:00.002-06:00

And actually, I've been engaged for almost four weeks now . . . Anyway, some of you may remember that I announced about a year ago that I was seeing someone. That relationship has gradually blossomed into the best one I've ever known and it keeps getting better. So, I researched diamonds carefully for a couple of weeks and saved up some cash and presented her with the ring at the levee here on the bank of the Mississippi a few days before Christmas. And now we are in the midst of making wedding plans, which she is thankfully keeping pretty simple for me. We should be getting married in May, with the local Unitarian-Universalist (UU) minister officiating, though we're planning the ceremony to be held at the local university arboretum and not the UU church. Thankfully, my beautiful bride-to-be believes in Keeping It Simple, so I don't think I'm going to find this process to be much of a headache procedurally.

I'm terribly happy! :-D

Made millions on outrageous debt and then dropped out . . .

2009-01-01T15:03:00.003-06:00

I'm beginning to realize how soon CNBC retires their webpages, so I'm just going to copy this amazing letter from a former hedge fund manager into this post. I apologize for the length, but this is too sweet to miss . . .

Andrew Lahde, manager of a small California hedge fund, Lahde Capital, burst into the spotlight last year after his one-year-old fund returned 866 percent betting against the subprime collapse.

Last month, he did the unthinkable -- he shut things down, claiming dealing with his bank
counterparties had become too risky. Today, Lahde passed along his "goodbye" letter, a rollicking missive on everything from greed to economic philosophy. Enjoy:

Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, "What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it." I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.

I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don't worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer's company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life -- where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management -- with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.

On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government.

Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man's interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft's near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.

Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won't see it included in BP's, "Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions," television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM's similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country?

Ah, the female. The evil female plant -- marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let's stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient.

With that I say good-bye and good luck.

All the best,

Andrew Lahde

Blagojevich sure blew it . . .

2008-12-09T15:45:00.002-06:00

Dammit, why are politicians idiots? The current Governor of Illinois sure seems to be an idiot. And it seems that the Senate seat recently vacated by Barack Obama will remain empty for a while, as Blagojevich is now under too much of a cloud to credibly appoint a replacement.

I'm not at all uncomfortable with Illinoians selecting their new Senator rather than a single individual doing it, in any case. I just hope they get to do so very soon.

In any case, I hope this gets handled gracefully quite soon. If the alegations against Blagojevich are true (as seems to be the case, given the evidence aleged to be available), I cannot believe the selfish bastard would risk besmirching the new president's previous office so soon after he vacated it! If the alegations prove untrue, I sure hope they nail whoever made them to the wall, as I'd suspect some Rovian-style guilt-by-association attempt to be in the works . . . Unfortunately, I suspect it's rather the former instead. :-p

Jack Black as Jesus!

2008-12-09T09:19:00.003-06:00

It's almost enough to make a guy reconsider Christianity. <tears up>

"Prop 8 - The Musical" starring Jack Black, John C. Reilly, and many more... by Jack Black

And alas, it's a shame this video didn't have its intended effect . . .

The Recession is here (officially)

2008-12-01T18:13:00.004-06:00

Well, it's here. That's not really a surprise. The question still lingering now is "How long?" How long will the deflation last before inflation comes back? And how wicked will the inflation be? If the inflation doesn't come back, when do they officially declare a Depression? And how long will that last? Perhaps you'll find me overly gloomy again, but I actually expect the guys in this video will prove to be too optimistic. Yes, I know it sounds nuts, but I think they're being really optimistic. Quite.

Here's some of why I think that: consumers' credit limits will soon be lowered massively. Yes, your credit card will quite likely soon betray you. Right at the moment when people are going to loose work and try to max out their credit cards to compensate, it won't be there. This will accelerate many current trends, most likely including deflationary pressures. I'd also expect at least one major bank to fail within six months. (My money is on Citigroup (AKA Citi), as they have been the most egregious predatory lenders among the big guys and they are almost certainly far more overleveraged than their competitors. My only first-hand experience with them was going to one of their creepy Primerica recruitment sessions once, though I thought it was all crap after about half an hour. I gather that's about the moral level of the whole thing, which points to the coming problem. Truly, it's a company that should never have been allowed to come into existence in the first place.)

In the end, I think everyone will have to acknowledge that all of this is a fruit of deregulation, particularly the deregulation of credit . . . Really, all forms of leverage in general. Here's hoping something like Senator Durbin's anti-usury bill from earlier this year actually gains some traction!!!!!! It's sorely needed!!!!

Rebound possible within a few months -- or depression likely

2008-11-21T09:45:00.003-06:00

Marc "Dr. Doom" Faber is a well respected market analyst. He seems to think that government aid will have the intended effect and things will start rebounding within a few months. Here's the kicker, though: if the government aid doesn't have the intended effect, he figures we'll see something that makes the Great Depression look preferable!!! Well . . . That strikes me as incredibly honest.

In the meantime, both the BBC and NPR are talking about the end of US dominance in the world. I do think that would be the result of an extended Depression, but will most likely happen more slowly if things don't go that bad . . . Still, no thing at all lasts for ever. Nothing at all.

Deflation -- On its way?

2008-11-14T09:15:00.003-06:00

To be honest with you, I think we'll be seeing it by the end of 2009, but for the health of the wider economy, it is to be hoped I am wrong. The New York Times fretted about it on Nov 1st, though, and it seems to be discussed more and more by one respected party or another. Even Paul Krugman says we should not worry too much about inflation or "prudence" right now, which I think is a sneaky way of saying that deflation is the bigger worry. With consumer credit starting to get really crunched, it's hard to see where a growth in revenues will come from. Basically, I think the risks of this Recession becoming a Depression are growing by the day. And the news just keeps getting worse and worse . . .

Of course, fight coming deflation too hard and you could spark over-massive inflation . . . So, you know . . . Everybody wants to hedge against all possibilities, right?

In the (very) long run, I think stamping down the U.S. credit-binge will be a good thing, as it's gone totally out of control. But will stamping down the credit-binge cause a Recession or a Depression? I only wish I could actually know . . . Crazy as it may sound, my money is currently on Depression . . . :-p

Good-bye, Republican Party . . .

2008-11-11T19:58:00.002-06:00

It's been a chaotic week, but I've been meaning to blog about our new president for some time now. Though I remain pessimistic as ever, I was highly encouraged to see Barack H. Obama become the new President of the United States!!! He was who I wanted to see win the office during the primaries and (a first for me) I actually found him more ideal than any of the available third party candidates (of whom I seriously considered Nader (who should really stop running, though I voted for him without any regrets both in '96 and '00) and McKinney (who just didn't strike me as able to deliver and was pushing issues (like trying Bush and Cheney for war crimes and pulling out of Afghanistan) that left me cold)). I'm still in shock that the candidate I wanted to see win at the beginning of the process actually became the winner! However, he couldn't be taking office in worse circumstances. I must say that I wouldn't wish Obama's (or the new Congress') task on my worst enemies. He gets to inherit the mismanaged messes of Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as an economy which I am afraid is progressing towards Depression-level lows. This man has on his shoulders not only his own prospects, but the prospects of how his party will be perceived for a generation, and most important of all, the fortunes of the American people for probably a decade to come. I hope that he can deliver on all the hopes he has raised. Thankfully, he is eminently qualified and level-headed. I fear the compromises and conflict to come, but I find while expecting the worst, I can more genuinely hope for the best than ever before. We'll see during the next four years if things really improve or if I'm simply drinking too much O-Kool-Aid . . .

As Obama met with Bush today, businesses asked for more "help" at the expense of their employees. The amount of corporate welfare governments all over the world have been giving is astonishing. Given the fact that overextended consumers who can no longer use their houses as ATMs is at the heart of the issue, and that these consumers (i.e. average citizens) will soon be facing lost jobs, lost houses, lost pensions, and lost opportunities for themselves and their children, I'd hope the urge to help soon turns to helping the poor get needed help and solid opportunities. 'Cause, uh, there is about to be a whole lot more of the poor, I'm afraid . . . And those hanging onto the middle class by their pinky toe . . . If those people can't buy goods and services, all ships will sink. If they can, all ships will rise. We can't build the economy on personal welfare, but I think that personal welfare will do more to get the economy back on track in the long run (and create less personal suffering in the short run) than bailing out failing, mismanaged companies. But I'm pinko like that . . .

In the meantime, lots and lots of people around me (that is, most of the white ones) were rather bitter about the defeat of McCain and Palin at the polls. Given the way things played out, I think McCain must be that much more disappointed that Jindal turned him down. I suspect if McCain had run with Jindal, he would have won. However, Jindal apparently wants to leave a mark here in Louisiana. I also suspect he didn't want to be any more closely associated with Bush's wake than necessary . . . After all, he had been a Bush appointee to the Department of Health and Human Services and has been considered a health care expert. That may have made an election run uncomfortable, but I suspect he would have inspired voters with way more confidence than Palin did . . . All-in-all, I'm glad he stayed here and focused, where he's undoubtedly needed. (And kudos to him for his good management of Hurricane Gustav, the worst I've ever seen here in Baton Rouge.) Still, I suspect I'll see Jindal on the national stage, eventually . . .

I am happy to see the Democrats have a chance to shape policy during what will undoubtedly be one of the most critical times in our nation's history. So . . . DON'T FUCK IT UP, Y'ALL!! ;-)

Dr. Warren notices the return of layaway

2008-10-27T12:32:00.003-05:00

I have a tremendous respect for Dr. Warren, as she's been tracking problems with bankruptcy and the use of credit cards for years and years now, analyzing reams of data (mostly government data) to better understand financial failure and how it occurs.

Today, Dr. Warren noticed a K-Mart ad for lay-away, something I haven't seen in years myself. I remember in the eighties and early ninties when every Wal-Mart had a prominent lay-away counter in the back. As Dr. Warren points out, though, people going to college right now probably have no memory of lay-away, as credit cards became ubiquitous by the mid-nineties and they started signing-up everyone for them.

As the credit card industry begins to contract (as it is expected to do), will lay-away return? Interesting thought . . .

Greenspan admits he was wrong . . . "partially"

2008-10-23T15:58:00.002-05:00

Well, even Greenspan has to admit he was wrong sometimes, it seems. He's apparentley "in a state of shocked disbelief" over the credit crisis and is even willing to acknowledge now that, ya know, some things actually should be regulated. So, if the Old Sage of the Fed has actually admitted the need for some regulation, I'd say there's a good chance that we'll get some regulation. But maybe not "too much" . . . After all, he only admitted to being "partially" wrong . . .

What went wrong?

2008-10-08T15:46:00.003-05:00

Well, it's complicated, but this is the quick explanation (as covered on 60 Minutes). (And if you want a longer, more detailed explanation that's still easy for a novice, check out "The Giant Pool of Money" and the "Another Frightening Show About the Economy" episodes of This American Life, one of my very fav shows in any format.) So, people were trying to create "safe bets" out of thin air using vastly overvalued mortgages. And now it's all tumbling down around us . . . But in truth, I suspect this is just the first brick to fall in the entire, overextended American economy . . . Maybe that should read "The entire, overextended world economy," but it's just too scary to think that big right now.

Here's the real truth about the matter

2008-09-30T14:57:00.003-05:00

Well, that's what's gonna happen, all right. The credit crunch is gonna crunch consumers. So, what should have sent signals about ten years ago (or more) as the average U.S. consumer started creeping into a negative savings rate will soon become very, very clear: you can't borrow your way into prosperity! Not with a second mortgage (or even a first mortgage, really) or a car loan or a small loan for Xmas and especially not with the single most powerful demonic entity in the U.S.: the credit card!!! It will be the revenge of Dave Ramsey (even if Dave sucks at macroeconomics) and Elizabeth Warren (who got the macroeconomic situation just right) and others who basically counsel consumers to develop a positive savings rate or else (and remind politicians to enable and encourage the middle class to do that or else). These "bottom liners" have been ignored for too long and we're all about to pay the price for it.

So, if the American consumer is finally priced out of easy credit, the economy should start to contract in waves. And that's when trouble really begins.

I'm not too convinced there's going to be much that can be done to prevent this and I suspect the effects will be more widespread than most commentators understand. Or if they understand it, they are loathe to admit it.

Hopefully my little Cassandra routine here is simply me crying "the sky is falling," but I don't believe that.

My good friend Leif lost his home during Gustav

2008-09-29T13:52:00.003-05:00

He was renting, so he moved and things are better now, but it was an incredibly harrowing situation that he describes here. Though many of the afteraffects of Gustav still linger, most of them are wrapped up now. The only persistent sign of hurricane that most of us see is that there is a massive pile of yard trash stacked in front of almost every yard in town. There's so much of it that it's taking the city weeks and weeks to clean it all up . . .

I "toured" the old house with Leif a week and a half ago. Massively scary to think my man and his wonderful girlfriend, R, had to sit through all that wind and rain in a house that literally fell apart around them during the event. Their new house is very nice, though, and I hope it proves to be a foundation of further bliss.

Google 411 -- good stuff! (And Google Android)

2008-09-25T11:55:00.003-05:00

Google is now providing a new 411 service that is entirely free! Screw using the phone company service with all those fees!

There's a YouTube video demo available, too. It's pretty darn easy!

Also, Google released the so-called "gPhone" this week. It runs their Android platform, which will attempt to become an open platform that can be used by vendors on any handset. Here's some YouTube videos on that: 1 (older), 2, and 3. Right now the only "Android powered" phone is available through T-Mobile and they have virtually no service where I live out "in the country," so I won't be getting a G1, but I do believe it's the first serious competitor to the iPhone and I believe the Android platform could be the basis of many wonderful cell phones of the future. If it's available, I will look to get an Android-based phone for my next cell. If it's not available, I suspect it will have been abandoned by then . . . But I think those Google geniuses just might pull it off! ;-)

Tata Nano

2008-09-18T14:41:00.002-05:00

I think the Tata Nano looks like a damn cool machine. I love simplicity as a general design principle and something as stripped down as that strikes me as particularly beautiful in a sense, even if it's not really the most beatiful thing on the surface. Plus, just the idea of a $2,500 car strikes me as being very awesome.

I will be curious to see how it sells and spreads in India and other developing countries. While it doesn't look suitable for the requirements of the U.S. market, I suspect most of the design principles of the Nano could be used to build a $4,000 to $5,000 car for the U.S. market. Given the way the economy is going, that might just be a more useful thing than it would have seemed to be a year or so ago . . . Generally, I like the idea of something like this spreading and I think it eventually will.

Now, if they can combine something like that with some hybrid technology, maybe they could create a (plug-in?) hybrid with super-high gas mileage at less than $10,000! Or maybe even a long-range electric vehicle . . . That would rock!

In the meantime, I'll keep reading the hybrid blog and see what develops . . . Maybe I should look at buying some Tata Motors stock! Might be a good buy right now . . .

If the Rave Is Silent, Does Anyone Hear You Trance?

2008-09-16T15:23:00.002-05:00

This is an awesome idea. Yes, fuck clubs, let's go hang out (semi-)spontaneously in public with fun and groovy people dancing to their own beat. What a loverly metaphor and fun event . . . Maybe I wouldn't dig it as much as I'd hope, but I adore the idea . . .

OK, so no worries about Sarah Palin, right?

2008-09-14T02:46:00.005-05:00

OK, she can see Russia from her state if she goes out to Little Diomede in the middle of the Bering Strait and stares at Big Diomede. That's a rather special foreign policy credential, I guess. She also didn't really know what the Bush Doctrine was until Charlie Gibson explained it to her, as her recent interview with him attests (as well as parts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, & 7). I'm disappointed to see that McCain seems to have picked a veeeery inexperienced VP candidate easily able to out-Bush dear ol' incompetent Bush.

And yeah, Sarah Palin looks like Tina Fey and Tina Fey can do a damn good Sarah Palin. A spookily accurate Sarah Palin, perhaps even . . .

So, keep in mind . . . This recent small-town mayor will be "one heartbeat away" from the Presidency if McCain gets elected . . . And how many heartbeats do you think McCain has left, anyway? Hasn't eight years of an overly religious, war-mongering ignoramus raised in & elected from Texas been enough? Do we need to risk dealing with the small-town, female, lipstick-wearing-so-I'm-distinguishable-from-a-pit-bull, I'm-also-on-a-mission-from-God-even-if-I'm-not-a-Blues-Brother version of this same sort of things except raised in & elected from Alaska, too? Do you really think engaging in the same fucking behavior over and over again is going to solve the problems of our nation? Like electing tough-talking, empty-brained nincompoops just because they seem to really genuinely believe in America's most popular deity? Do you really think the guy who picked this sweet little inexperienced warmonger is really got fabulous judgment? Or is it perhaps just early signs of dementia? Her record just isn't that awesome, according to at least one former constituent. I'd say there's much to worry about here.

P.S. On a different subject, Ron Paul says don't vote for McCain or Obama, but for Nader. I'm not sure if a Paul/Nader alliance can actually mix-up politics in our country as we know it. Still, I find it interesting . . . Ideally, it's a move I'd like to see bear fruit and expand the number of parties participating in U.S. politics, but not at Obama's expense . . . Not this year!