Public Policy Polling

NC Democrats' Senior Problem

2009-11-20T14:45:00.003-05:00

A majority of voters under the age of 65 in North Carolina like the job Barack Obama's doing as President. They say they'll vote for an unnamed Democrat by a 42-41 margin over Richard Burr, plan to support Democrats by a 47-41 spread for the legislature and also plan to go Democratic 47-42 for Congress.

Despite all that Obama's overall approval rating is only 47%, and voters in the state (albeit by a close margin) are currently planning to reelect Burr and vote Republican for both the legislature and Congress.

Why the disconnect? Democrats in the state are currently having a huge senior problem. 57% of them disapprove of Obama with only 35% giving him good reviews. They plan to reelect Burr by a 55-31 margin and they plan to vote 56-33 GOP for the legislature and 56-32 for Congress.

It's not unusual for older voters in North Carolina to vote more conservative than the state as a whole- they gave John McCain his largest amount of support last year- but this is an unusually large disconnect.

Health care definitely seems to be the driving force on this. 65% of seniors in North Carolina say they're opposed to Obama on the issue with just 26% supportive.

What makes this a particularly acute problem for Democrats is that voters over 65 are likely to make up a much larger portion of the electorate in 2010 than they did in 2008. Seniors vote more consistently than younger voters, and early indications from races in New Jersey and Virginia this year are that the Obama wave voters can't be counted on to come back out for an off year election. Democrats in North Carolina next year are going to have to find a better way to get those newer voters out to the polls than their peers in other states- but they're also going to have to find a better way to connect with older voters if they're going to keep what they have. This is going to be one of the biggest trends to watch in North Carolina next year.

Looking back on Missouri's Governors

2009-11-20T13:59:00.002-05:00

Could John Ashcroft make a return to public office in the future, perhaps as a candidate for the Senate or Governor in 2012? It seems like a far fetched possibility but Missouri voters may be somewhat open to it. Ashcroft came out on top of our newest poll asking folks in the state who their favorite Governor of the last 25 years is.

35% of respondents picked Ashcroft, allowing him to narrowly edge out Mel Carnahan with 32%. Ashcroft finished first among Republican voters with 58%, while Carnahan likewise finished first with Democrats with 58%. Among independents Ashcroft edged Carnahan 40-30.

Family names may loom large in next year's Senate race with the daughter of a former Governor running on the Democratic side against the father of a former Governor on the Republican side. If legacies become an important factor in the contest it appears that will be to Robin Carnahan's advantage, as Matt Blunt is the state's least popular Governor of the last 25 years, the choice of 29% of respondents. Finishing second on that front is Bob Holden and third is Ashcroft.

Democrats pick Blunt as their least favorite by a 45-35 margin over Ashcroft and independent choose him by a 28-25 spread of Holden. Republicans split their 'least favorite' choices evenly between Carnahan and Holden.

Matt Blunt clearly was not a popular Governor, and that could hurt his father next year. Carnahan's father on the other hand seems to be generally well remembered. It will be interesting to see how much those things matter next year in a race that's likely to be closely contested.

Jay Nixon did not receive much support for either most popular or least popular, an indication he hasn't made a strong impression yet on voters in the state one way or the other.

Full results here

Monthly 2012 Numbers

2009-11-20T10:43:00.004-05:00

Barack Obama's still leading all of his top potential opponents for 2012, but with his approval rating nationally below 50% for the first time his margins against a couple of them have dropped below what he won against John McCain last fall.

For the eighth month in a row Mike Huckabee comes the closest to Obama of the leading GOP hopefuls but for the first time he has company in Mitt Romney. Both of them trail the President by five points, Huckabee by a 49-44 margin and Romney by a 48-43 spread.

The key to Huckabee's strong performance is that he does the best of the Republican candidates we tested with the party base, taking 87% of the GOP vote in a head to head with Obama. There is some bad news for the former Arkansas Governor in the poll too though, as his favorability has moved slightly into negative territory by a 37/36 margin. This is the first time Huckabee has been in the red on that front.

Romney's strength in his best performance yet against Obama is with independents. While the other GOP candidates trail by 7-9 points with them Romney is at just a 44-42 deficit. His favorability numbers in the poll are less than impressive though, with 30% of voters holding a positive opinion of him to 39% negative. That has a lot to do with fewer than 50% of Republican voters saying they have favorable opinion of him.

Sarah Palin may be getting at least a slight book bounce, as her favorability numbers are the best they've been since August and her margin relative to Obama is the smallest it's been since July. Neither of those things are necessarily saying much though- 49% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of her to 40% favorable and she continues to trail the President 51-43.

New to the poll this month is Ron Paul. He is more well liked by Democrats (18%) than his fellow Republicans who sport 13-14% favorability numbers with the opposing party. At the same time he is easily the least popular within his own party, as 25% of Republican voters have an unfavorable opinion of him to 11-19% for the other three. He trails Obama 46-38.

What does this all mean for Obama? He is in a slightly weaker position than he was a year ago, with his 49% approval rating running four points below his share of the popular vote last year and his leads over Huckabee and Romney a bit smaller than his winning margin over John McCain. At the same time he's already pretty much bottomed out with GOP voters so as is often the case in politics his long term prognosis is going to depend on keeping the independents he won over last fall and ensuring that he continues to fire up the Democratic base the way he did in 2008.

Full results here

Missouri Approvals

2009-11-19T15:28:00.002-05:00

The second part of our Missouri poll looks at the approval ratings of the state's top politicians:

-Jay Nixon. It's been a pretty successful first year for the state's new Governor. 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 25% disapproving. In a time when the popularity of many chief executives across the country is tanking, those are very solid numbers. Nixon is one of only four Governors PPP has polled on all year with a disapproval rating under 30% (the others being Jack Markell of Delaware, Mike Beebe of Arkansas, and Pat Quinn of Illinois.) The 33% of voters with no opinion of him is unusually high though, an indication that he may need to do more to step up his visibility across the state.

-Kit Bond. Over the course of PPP's last three Missouri polls Bond's approval rating has gone from 44/43 to 57/27 and now down to 41/34. What explains the wild fluctuation? The poll showing Bond with strong numbers was taken right after his retirement announcement, an event that clearly gave him a strong but temporary bounce. His approval's gone back to what it was last summer but his disapproval remains lower. That's largely because of a difference in his numbers among Democrats compared to last summer- his approval with them remains the same but his disapproval has gone from 53% to 43% with 'no opinion' going from 22% to 31%. That may be some continued post-retirement civility: why bother disapproving of someone on the way out?

-Claire McCaskill. McCaskill's spent less time in statewide office than Nixon or Bond, but voters in the state have the strongest opinions about her with 45% disapproving of her performance and 42% approving. Those actually aren't particularly bad approval numbers for a Democratic Senator in what is proving to be a very difficult end of the year for the party. The evenly divided opinions about her though suggest Missouri could have yet another highly competitive Senate contest in 2012, further enhancing its reputation as one of the country's foremost battleground states.

Full results here

ACORN

2009-11-19T12:15:00.002-05:00

Losing NY-23 candidate Doug Hoffman became the latest in an increasingly long line of conservative politicians to blame his problems on ACORN yesterday despite the complete lack of evidence the organization played any role in his defeat.

The Republican base is with him though. PPP's newest national survey finds that a 52% majority of GOP voters nationally think that ACORN stole the Presidential election for Barack Obama last year, with only 27% granting that he won it legitimately. Clearly the ACORN card really is an effective one to play with the voters who will decide whether Hoffman gets to be the Republican nominee in a possible repeat bid in 2010.

Belief in the ACORN conspiracy theory is even higher among GOP partisans than the birther one, which only 42% of Republicans expressed agreement with on our national survey in September.

Overall 62% of Americans think Obama legitimately won the election to only 26% who think ACORN stole it for him, as few Democrats or independents buy into that line of thinking.

The organization is generally unpopular though, with only 11% of voters viewing it favorably to 53% with an unfavorable opinion and 36% without one. The only politician we've polled on this year with comparably bad favorability numbers is John Edwards. The constant harping on ACORN by Republican politicians may sound nutso in some circles, but it certainly has hurt the organization's image and it looks like the anti-ACORN message may resonate with a decent portion of the American electorate. ACORN is probably well overdue for a rebranding.

Full results here

Deep Divisions on Obama

2009-11-19T11:59:00.005-05:00

For our monthly look at Barack Obama's approval rating nationally we decided to have voters give him a letter grade in addition to a straight up or down vote on his performance.

Overall Obama's 'GPA' comes out to a 2.1, somewhere between a C and a C+. That's a middle ground grade, but when it comes to individual evaluations of Obama there is little of that middle ground within the American electorate. A majority of voters give him either the highest or lowest grade, with 30% rating him as an A and 26% giving him an F. Even though his numbers average out to a C only 7% actually give him that grade, with the remaining 37% of the country split almost evenly between B's and D's. By and large voters either really like or really dislike Obama.

Obama's approval this month slips below 50% for the first time, with 49% of voters giving him good marks for his mark and 46% disapproving. Obama's numbers with Democrats and independents are almost identical to what they were in October, but he's at a new low with Republicans as 87% now disapprove of his work with only 10% in support. That's down from a 13/82 spread a month ago.

Opposition to Obama on health care has reached its highest level now as well, with a majority of Americans now saying for the first time that they're against his plan. While support has remained steady with Democrats, Republicans and independents are becoming more firm in their push back. 92% of GOP voters say no, up from 84% a month ago, as do 58% of independents, up from 47% in October. It's interesting to note that even as independent voters have hardened their opposition on health care their overall support for Obama remains unchanged. Overall 52% of voters say they're opposed to Obama on health care with 40% supportive.

How is all of this affecting Obama's long term reelection prospects? We'll have our newest round of 2012 polling out tomorrow.

Full results here

Purgason's Hope

2009-11-19T11:05:00.002-05:00

Chuck Purgason is a long, longggggggggggg shot for the Senate nomination in Missouri but there is one thing he has on his side: Congressional Republicans are not that popular even with the GOP base in the state. Only 44% have a favorable opinion of them with 38% seeing them unfavorably. If they continue to become more unpopular and Purgason can effectively frame Blunt as emblematic of the problem that may be his one and only shot.

If you look at where Blunt and Purgason are drawing their support right now, it looks to be much more a pro-Washington vs. anti-Washington thing than a moderate vs. conservative thing. Among conservatives Blunt leads 55-13 and with moderates he's up 46-23, an indication that Purgason is not picking up much of his support from people concerned about Blunt's ideological purity- perhaps the opposite actually, that Purgason is benefiting from people who think Blunt is too conservative.

There's a bigger divided based on how people feel about Congressional Republicans. Those who like them give Blunt a 62-13 advantage. Those who dislike them give him only a 47-20 lead. If there is a winning message for Purgason that's it-how are we going to clean up the mess in Washington with someone who's been causing the problem for the last 13 years?

Looking at NC Republicans

2009-11-19T10:09:00.003-05:00

There is a movement among some North Carolina Republicans to close the party's primaries to independents because they think allowing them to vote results in excessively moderate candidates being nominated. But is that claim really true?

Independents are often thought of as being straight down the middle voters who split their tickets and shift from party to party on an election by election basis. Even within the ranks of independents there are few voters who actually fit that stereotype- most lean strongly toward one party or the other but just don't feel like identifying themselves with one.

In North Carolina our independents are a conservative leaning bunch. 49% are moderates but among the rest of the crew 41% are conservatives and just 10% are liberals.

Let's take a closer look at the independent voters most likely to vote in Republican primaries though- those who disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance. Within that group 65% are conservatives and 34% are moderates.

The ideological identification of Republican voters in the state breaks down 71% conservatives and 27% moderates. Throw those Obama disapproving independents into that mix and you end up with a likely Republican primary electorate that's 69% conservatives and 29% moderates.

When you actually look at the numbers the premise that allowing unaffiliateds to vote in Republican primaries gives moderates undue power is false. The independents who participate in GOP primaries are almost as conservative as registered Republican voters.

It would seem this movement is being driven by emotions rather than facts. Beyond that I don't think the party's problem in recent elections has been the excess moderation of its candidates- quite the opposite actually- but allowing or not allowing unaffiliateds to vote in their primaries has no impact on that.

Close in North Carolina

2009-11-18T15:11:00.003-05:00

It looks like North Carolina is headed for a pretty competitive election year in 2010.

PPP's newest round of generic ballot polling for legislative and Congressional races in the state finds tight margins on both fronts. By a 45-44 spread voters say they plan to vote Republican for the legislature and by a nearly identical 45-43 margin they say they'll vote for GOP Congressional candidates.

Republicans are polling closely in a state with a heavy Democratic registration advantage for two key reasons. The first is support from independents. They say they'll vote Republican for the legislature by a 48-27 margin and for Congress by a 48-29 margin. The second is that GOP voters are more unified than Democrats are. While 88% of Republicans commit to voting for their party's legislative candidates only 79% of Democrats do. On the federal level 90% of Republicans are on board with the party compared to 77% of Democrats.

Conservative Democrats often swing close elections in North Carolina by whether they stick with their party or stray, and their current choices provide a prism into why the state looks so competitive right now. They're only committing to voting Democratic by a 48-42 margin for Congress and a 46-42 one for the Legislature. When you combine that kind of crossover support for Republicans with their current advantage with independents you have the right conditions for the GOP to have its best election cycle in the state in quite a long time. We'll see whether they can take advantage of it or not.

Full results here

Lincoln Trouble

2009-11-18T11:43:00.002-05:00

Blanche Lincoln's approval rating in Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District, where Barack Obama had his strongest performance in the state last year, is just 27%.

55% of voters disapprove of the job she's doing. It's predictable that 70% of Republicans give her poor marks but more surprising is that independents break down 64/19 against her and even among Democrats just 43% give her good marks to 37% disapproving.

In a pair of hypothetical 2010 contests we looked at Lincoln trails Gilbert Baker 43-38 and Stanley Reed 42-39, despite the relative anonymity of the Republican duo. 67% of voters have no opinion of Baker and 78% are ambivalent toward Reed.

Certainly some of Lincoln's problems are due to the national political climate, which is largely beyond her control. 54% of voters in the district generally have an unfavorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress and 52% of them disapprove of Obama's job performance.

Her poor numbers with Democrats are of her own doing though, and are considerably worse than those of Obama, Vic Snyder, and Mark Pryor. Few of the Democrats who dislike her will go so far as to vote Republican next year, but as we saw in Virginia and New Jersey this year they might not show up to vote for a candidate they're not enthusiastic about and that could have serious repercussions for the rest of the state's Congressional Democrats and not just Lincoln.

It's hard to say what she should do to get on the path back to popularity though. 30% of Democrats in the district think she's too conservative but 49% of the independents think she's too liberal. Those are the two groups she needs to do a lot better with to win reelection, and it's not clear what she could do to appease both of them. To win next year Lincoln may need for her eventual Republican opponent to self destruct, which certainly would not be unprecedented. Tim Hutchinson's doing so provided Democrats one of their few bright spots on a dreary 2002 election night.

Full results here

Tight in Missouri

2009-11-18T10:23:00.003-05:00

When PPP polled the Missouri Senate race in January Robin Carnahan led by one point. Fast forward ten months and nothing has changed. Carnahan leads Roy Blunt 43-42.

It's a good sign for Carnahan that her status hasn't worsened as things have gone sour in general for the Democratic Party over the course of 2009. That's a product of Carnahan and Blunt being more well known than your typical open seat candidates, particularly because of their family names, and probably also due to Blunt's being symbolic of a Congress that voters don't care for. You're definitely better off being a Jefferson City politician in 2010 than a Washington one.

Voters in the state view Carnahan a good deal more favorably than Blunt. 40% have a positive opinion of her to 36% unfavorable, for a +4 net rating. Only 30% of voters see Blunt favorably with 38% looking at him negatively, for a -8 net rating.

In a normal election year Carnahan would probably cruise to election given that divergence in the candidates' popularity. But 2010 is shaping up to be good for Republicans and Carnahan can't completely avoid that. 52% of voters in the state disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing with only 43% giving him good marks. Also 58% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress with only 27% seeing them positively. Those two findings are a good look into why Carnahan doesn't have a wider lead.

Congressional Republicans are actually even more unpopular than Congressional Democrats in the state- 62% view them unfavorably. But among voters with a dim view of both parties- which accounts for 27% of the state- Blunt leads 59-22. Generally speaking when voters don't care for either party they'll vote for the one that's out of power because of the mentality that there's at least a prospect for things to change.

State Senator Chuck Purgason is also running and trails Blunt 53-16 in the primary. Blunt is at no real risk of not winning the nomination, but the numbers do indicate he still has some work to do ingratiating himself with Republican voters. In a general election contest that will probably never happen Carnahan leads Purgason 42-35.

There's no doubt this is going to be one of the top races in the country next year. Democrats will be playing a lot of defense nationally in 2010 but Carnahan is a superior candidate to Blunt and that makes this one of the best opportunities for the party to pick up something it doesn't currently hold. Should be an interesting one to watch.

Full results here

Republicans and 2012

2009-11-17T06:43:00.003-05:00

I was interested to see David Plouffe comment that the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee might come from outside the roster of the current top contenders. I don't know if it will or not, but I think for the GOP to win next time around it will have to be.

Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee have all been through a national campaign now. They're relatively well known. And they just aren't that popular. On our last round of 2012 polling all three had favorabilities in the 30s- 36% for Palin, 34% for Romney, and 33% for Huckabee. And while Palin had the most admirers she also had by far the most detractors with 51% of the country holding an unfavorable opinion of her.

Perhaps there's a way one of these folks can rebrand themselves to become more appealing but to me it looks more like Bob Dole in 1996 all over again- you nominate someone who's already proven to be a Presidential loser and you get results pretty similar to the last time around.

All three of these folks reinforce the negative perceptions that much of the country holds about the Republican Party. The GOP needs a fresh face that challenges people's assumptions about who Republicans are and is visibly not just going to be George W. Bush under another name. I don't know who that person is, but he/she needs to emerge if the party is going to win back the White House in 2012.

Missouri Preview

2009-11-17T05:23:00.004-05:00

The Missouri Senate race, where we'll release numbers tomorrow, is a great prism into the current political climate.

44% of independents in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Roy Blunt to just 23% viewing him favorably. Robin Carnahan also has poor, but somewhat better, numbers with that group- 40% have an unfavorable opinion of her with 33% holding a positive take.

The fact that both candidates are unpopular with independents is a clue to the enmity voters are feeling toward politicians of all stripes right now, but with Carnahan's net favorability with independents coming out at -7 to Blunt's -21 you would expect her to have a solid race in the horse race with that group, right?

Wrong. Blunt leads 44-32 with independents even though only 23% like him. His vote share nearly doubles his favorability!

This is another example of something I wrote about last weekend- voters who dislike both parties or in this case both politicians are leaning toward the party out of power because they at least see it as an alternative to the status quo. A big part of the Democratic message next year is going to have to be reminding voters why they hated the Republicans being in power so much and convincing them the alternative is worse.

Lincoln's Tough Position

2009-11-17T05:08:00.003-05:00

We'll release the second part of our Arkansas-2 poll tomorrow but here's the key finding: while 78% of Democrats in the district approve of the job Barack Obama is doing, 75% like Vic Snyder, and 61% like Mark Pryor only 43% express support for Blanche Lincoln.

That's some pretty serious confirmation she has a base problem. We found that 30% of Democrats in the district think she's too conservative.

So just start moving more to the left and being more supportive of the President and all will be fine, right? Not really because 49% of independents in the district think she's too liberal (as do 76% of Republicans but those votes are gone already.)

I'm really not sure what Lincoln should do but I certainly don't envy her position. She's stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Now it should be noted that despite Lincoln's 43% approval with Democrats she still pulled 71% of the vote in her party versus the Republicans we tested her against on this poll. But that's where I start to worry about the Creigh Deeds effect- if the base has so little enthusiasm for the top of the ticket is it even going to bother turning out next year? Her lack of popularity could be bad news for the rest of the Democratic delegation. Mike Beebe is incredibly well liked but also not likely to have a very competitive race so I'm not sure how much of a turnout driver that will be. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. We'll have the full Lincoln numbers tomorrow.

Snyder in trouble

2009-11-15T21:50:00.004-05:00

Last year Republicans didn't even bother to run a candidate against Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder in Arkansas. Now with the political climate turning in the wrong direction for Democrats nationally, and particularly in the Natural State, it looks like he may be in for the toughest fight of his career to get reelected next year.

Snyder's approval rating is now 42%, with 46% of voters in the district disapproving of him. He's at a solid 75% in his own party but with independents the spread is 30/56 and with Republicans it's just 12/75.

A lot of Snyder's issues can probably be traced to overall feelings about his party. 54% of voters in the district disapprove of the job Congressional Democrats are doing, 52% disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance, and 50% express the feeling that Congressional Democrats are too liberal. Additionally 55% of voters say they're opposed to the health care bill the House passed last week with Snyder's support, including 91% of Republicans and 67% of independents. Snyder seems to be bearing the brunt of a lot of animosity toward national Democrats in his district.

The practical implication of all this is that the district looks like a toss up for next year. In possible 2010 match ups Snyder leads Tim Griffin 44-43, Scott Wallace 44-42, and David Meeks 45-42. Those close margins come despite the fact that none of the Republican candidates are well known- 67% of voters have no opinion about Griffin, 75% say the same of Wallace, and 78% are ambivalent toward Meeks.

The Republicans hold leads of 13-15 points among independent voters, continuing a trend being seen across the country this year that was particularly important in giving the GOP victories in races for Governor of New Jersey and Virginia.

Certainly a lot can change between now and next November, and Snyder has shown resilience in bad election years for Democrats in the past. But we polled Arkansas-2 because we thought it would be a good test case for whether the political climate is so bad for Dems right now that districts that haven't been in the top tier of competitiveness for years might be in play, and it looks like the answer is yes. We also intend to poll Rick Boucher's district in SW Virginia sometime between now and Christmas to see if a similar situation exists there.

Full results here

Perdue back up to 30

2009-11-15T21:15:00.003-05:00

For the first time since June Bev Perdue's approval rating is out of the 20s. 30% of North Carolinians express support for her work this month with 49% disapproving and 22% unsure.

The positive movement for Perdue is largely a result of the Democratic base warming back up to her a little bit. Where last month more voters within her party disapproved than approved of her work, now 46% give her good marks with only 32% disapproving. She continues to suffer from pretty paltry ratings with independents and Republicans though- 24 and 11% approval respectively.

Perdue has consistently received better marks in the Triangle than the rest of the state. While part of that can be attributed to the region being more Democratic the difference is so large it can't be traced to that alone. She has 41% approval here compared to 22-32% everywhere else. This could be chalked up to Perdue's being much more visible here, particularly on the tv news, and that the more people see her the more likely they are to really think she's attuned to the state's problems. Improving visibility in the rest of the state could go a long way toward bringing up Perdue's overall numbers.

There are also some indications in this month's findings that while Perdue is certainly in a difficult place, the hole is not too large to climb out of. Asked to assign her a letter grade the most common response, from 28% of respondents, was to give Perdue a 'C.' That's an indication there is a lot of ambiguity in voters' feelings toward Perdue and that while they lean toward disapproving of her right now getting their support back over the next three years is not an impossibility.

Only 35% of voters give her a D or F, suggesting they're gone forever, compared to 40% who rate Barack Obama that poorly. It is certainly true that few voters love Perdue- just 15% giving her A's as opposed to 32% who do the same for Obama- but you don't necessarily have to be loved to be reelected.

There's not much doubt if Perdue had to stand for reelection today she'd be toast. The first year has not been particularly successful in the court of public opinion. But she's not 'done for,' so long as she can learn lessons from the difficulties so far and use that experience to do things different in the future. Whether she's capable of that kind of adaptation remains to be seen.

Full results here

Some twists in Congressional favorability

2009-11-14T13:49:00.003-05:00

It's a commonly accepted fact that Congressional Democrats are unpopular but Congressional Republicans are even more unpopular.

That's true but it shouldn't be taken as an indication that Democrats are going to be fine in 2010 because there's a pretty significant group of the electorate that dislikes both parties and they're overwhelmingly planning to vote Republican next year because they think it at least provides an opportunity for change.

Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District is a good example of this. 16% of voters there don't like the Democrats or the Republicans. But they give all three of Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder's potential opponents leads of 37-40 points and they give the possible Blanche Lincoln foes we tested leads of 42-43 points.

There are very few people who dislike Congressional Democrats planning to vote for them this year anyway. But there are a fair number of people who dislike Congressional Republicans who are still planning to give them a chance.

One other thing to keep in mind when talking about the fact that Republicans are more unpopular than Democrats is that GOP voters are more likely to give their own party bad marks than Dems are- but they'll still vote for it. On our last national poll 45% of GOP voters expressed disapproval of their party while only 16% of Democrats did.

Etheridge

2009-11-13T16:15:00.002-05:00

This may seem counter intuitive but the news that Bob Etheridge is not running for the Senate is good news for Democrats.

At this point the chances of a Republican taking over his open Congressional seat are better than the chances of his beating Richard Burr would have been.

The political climate may turn around for Democrats by this time next year, and if it does I'm confident whoever the party's nominee is will have a very good chance of beating Richard Burr. But as things stand today an Etheridge candidacy was not worth the risk of losing his House seat. I don't think 2010 is going to be a good year for Democratic politicians to gamble.

Looking at Arkansas-2

2009-11-13T13:37:00.003-05:00

We're going to be releasing polling looking at both the House race and the Senate race in Arkansas-2 next week.

That leads to an obvious question: why AR-2?

It's a district where there hasn't been a real strong challenge to Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder in a while. But it also voted for John McCain by a good margin last year, and unlike many Dems in districts as conservative as Snyder's, he voted for the health care bill in the House last weekend. So his district is a good test case of whether the political climate for Democrats is so bad right now that incumbents in McCain districts are vulnerable next year even if they haven't had a tough fight in a really long time.

Here are some of the findings from the poll:

-55% of voters in the district are opposed to the health care bill passed Saturday night with 32% in support.

-Voters in the district, like voters everywhere, hate both Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans. For Dems the favorability breakdown is 36/54 and for the GOP it's not much better at 32/48.

-50% of voters in the district think Congressional Democrats are too liberal...but 39% also think that Congressional Republicans are too conservative.

What does it all add up to for Snyder's vulnerability? Stay tuned- we should have the numbers on him out either Sunday night or Monday

Obama on the rise in North Carolina

2009-11-13T10:16:00.002-05:00

Barack Obama's approval rating in North Carolina is headed in the right direction this month. An equal 47% of the state's voters approve and disapprove of his job performance after PPP's monthly surveys from August through October had found his numbers in the red.

Obama's climb in our numbers matches a recent Civitas finding that his approval had improved to 50/48 from 44/53 in its previous poll.

In addition to asking Obama's straight approval this month we also had respondents give him a letter grade. Reflecting the extent to which most Americans either really love or really hate Obama, 61% gave him either an A or an F, with 32% giving him the highest grade and 29% the lowest. His 'GPA' with North Carolina voters comes out at 2.1, or somewhere between a C and a C+.

This improvement in Obama's standing means that a year after he took the state in the Presidential race by the smallest of margins he is in more or less the exact same position now that he was then. North Carolinians are evenly divided in their feelings about Obama and if he had to stand before the voters in the state again today it would probably be just as close as it was last year.

Looking at Obama's standing with various groups of the electorate you also find little movement from who supported him at the polls a year ago. He is popular with liberal, moderates, women, African Americans, young voters, and those in the Triangle and metro Charlotte. He is unpopular with conservatives, men, whites, senior citizens, and folks in the Triad and the mountains.

Most North Carolinians made up their minds about Obama more than a year ago, and few are changing them.

Full results here

Looking toward 2010

2009-11-12T16:33:00.002-05:00

I had a couple of theories about why Democratic voter turnout was so bad last week besides the party nominating bad candidates.

One was the frustration theory: we got Congress back in 2006, we got Barack in in 2008, but things aren't changing enough. Getting out and voting for our candidates didn't really make anything better.

The other is the complacency theory: we got rid of Bush, we got rid of all those arch conservatives running Congress, now our guys are in charge and we can trust them to do the right thing. It doesn't really matter if I vote this year or not because we've got it covered.

Some post-election polling from Democracy Corps in New Jersey and Virginia would seem to suggest the frustration theory is wrong and the complacency theory is worryingly correct.

In both New Jersey and Virginia people who didn't vote were much more likely to think the country is heading in the right direction than those who did. Those who think things are fine were less likely to get out and vote.

Similar story when it comes to whether people think Obama has things going the right way- 49% of those who didn't vote in Virginia think he does while only 43% of those who did vote do. In New Jersey 63% of nonvoters thought Obama had the country going in the right direction while only 51% of voters shared that sentiment.

What's the lesson here?

-Democratic voters who think things are fine now that Obama is in office have developed some sense of complacency that reduced their urge to vote this fall.

-Democrats need to create a villain to keep that from happening again in 2010. They got two good election cycles out of George W. Bush but it's probably time for something new. Unfortunately the John Boehners and Mitch McConnells of the world are too obscure for that purpose so I don't know who the answer is- Rush Limbaugh? The best message for Democrats to get their people back out to the polls might be- 'look, these Republicans are still trying to obstruct progress and we need you to get out there and vote if Barack's going to be able to pursue his entire agenda.'

Basically Democratic voters need to be disabused of the notion that all is ok- because if turnout patterns this November match turnout patterns from last November all is most certainly not going to be ok.

Some good news for Dems from Civitas

2009-11-12T15:39:00.002-05:00

There is some good news for Democrats in the latest Civitas poll:

-Bev Perdue's approval is now a 43/49 spread, compared to 29/63 in their previous survey. That's a 28 point gain in her net approval. Our newest round of numbers on her, which we'll release next week, also show movement in the right direction if not to that extent.

-They also have Barack Obama's approval going from 44/53 to 50/48, an 11 point improvement. We'll release our Obama numbers tomorrow and we also see positive movement for him, although again not of that magnitude.

-They also asked if voters would prefer a candidate who voted to raise taxes to protect education funding or one who cut education funding to avoid raising taxes. By a 59-28 margin respondents said they would prefer the one who raised taxes to protect education, something that has to be heartening for legislative Democrats running for reelection in a tough political climate next year. It looks like at least one argument they can make on their behalf might hold sway with the voters.

Most of the rest of the poll is a regurgitation of right wing talking points, you can see the full results here

Digging Deeper on Independents

2009-11-12T12:18:00.003-05:00

We all know that a big part of the Republican successes in New Jersey and Virginia last week had to do with Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell's ability to win over independent voters.

I want to go a little deeper than that though, and talk about the differences between McCain independents and Obama independents- and why the latter group will be the most influential voter bloc in next year's elections.

Independents who voted for John McCain are more or less Republican voters who don't call themselves that. In Virginia they voted for McDonnell by an 89-8 margin and in New Jersey they went for Chris Christie by an 88-6 margin. On the generic Congressional ballot for next year they go 70-2 for the GOP in Virginia and 78-3 in New Jersey. These are not your imaginary sort of independents who are centrists and swing from one party to the other on an election by election basis- they are conservative, Republican voters who just don't attach that label to themselves.

The Obama voting independents in New Jersey and Virginia are more of your true swing voters. They only went for Creigh Deeds by a 66-32 margin and their support for Jon Corzine was only 52-24. Looking toward next year they support Democrats 48-24 for Congress in Virginia and 50-11 in New Jersey.

These are the kinds of voters who may be looking for a division of power. Obama's approval with them in Virginia is 67% and in New Jersey it's 75% so Congressional Democrats are running well behind his level of support. The relatively high number of undecideds with them in both states would seem to indicate they aren't enthralled with the Democrats in DC but they aren't real sold on the Republicans either and they're going to vote for whichever side does the better job of winning them over.

The biggest factor in who wins next year will be turnout and which party can mobilize its voters to get out and vote, but if you want to talk about the most persuadable group of the electorate it's the independents who voted for Obama. Their decisions could decide a lot of close races.

Same old, same old on NC-Senate

2009-11-12T10:36:00.004-05:00

Richard Burr's status this month is the same as it's been ever since Roy Cooper decided not to challenge him- his numbers are mediocre but he leads a bevy of little known potential challengers by double digit margins.

Burr's approval this month comes in at 40% with 31% of voters disapproving of him. He has the support of 63% of Republicans, 46% of independents, and 22% of Democrats.

The +9 spread in Burr's approval is the same as Elizabeth Dole's in November of 2007. 10% more voters have no opinion of Burr than was the case for Dole at this point in the cycle.

Tested against a generic Democratic candidate Burr leads 44-40, thanks largely to a 51-30 advantage with independent voters.

Matched against half a dozen specific potential Democratic opponents he holds leads ranging from 10 to 13 points. Bob Etheridge continues to poll the strongest of the Democrats, albeit by a narrow margin, trailing 45-35. Elaine Marshall is next best at 45-34, followed by Dennis Wicker at 45-33 and Kevin Foy at 44-32, then Kenneth Lewis at 45-32 and the likely not running Cal Cunningham at 44-31.

The small amount of variation in the performance of the Democratic candidates speaks to how little known any of them are across the state. Names like Etheridge, Marshall, and Wicker may be well known in political circles but ask most voters about any of them and you'd likely get a blank stare. Kay Hagan trailed Dole 46-33 in November of 2007.

The bottom line on the Senate race is this: if 2010 ends up being a big year for Republicans nationally it's unlikely any of the possible Democratic candidates are going to be strong enough to defeat him. If the economy really gets turned around and it winds up being a good year for Democrats, Burr is probably not strong enough to get reelected. And if it's just sort of an average year with neither party having a strong advantage this is likely to be one of the most closely contested races in the country. Yes, it's taken Democrats a long time to get a candidate, but Burr has the weakest numbers of any Republican in the country running for reelection in 2010 so even if it's taking a while the party will definitely make a strong effort in North Carolina.

Full results here

GOP disunity overblown?

2009-11-11T15:26:00.002-05:00

I think Republican unity problems of late have been extremely overblown.

There's no doubt NY-23 was a big old mess, and if that's replicated on a broader scale next year the GOP will have some problems. But I think that whole charade was a once in a lifetime thing.

New Jersey and Virginia provide us with some better clues as to the state of the party.

In New Jersey we found Chris Christie winning 82% of the Republican vote to Jon Corzine's 72% of the Democratic vote. And in Virginia we found Bob McDonnell getting 94% of the GOP vote to Creigh Deeds' 87% of the Democratic vote.

Contrast that to last year. Our final Virginia poll had Barack Obama getting 89% of the Democratic vote to John McCain's 87% of the Republican vote. And the New Jersey exit poll showed Obama getting 89% of the Democratic vote to McCain's 85% of the GOP vote.

In both cases the Democrats were more unified in 2008 but the Republicans were more together in 2009. And at this point I expect that to continue in 2010. GOP voters know they have to support their party's nominee- as chosen in the primary- if they're going to start on the path back to power in Washington DC.

The problem in NY-23 was that the party rank and file didn't get to make that choice and it caused a huge splinter and lots of resentment...but that won't be a concern in many races next year. There will likely be some spirited primaries but by and large the party's voters will get on board in the general election to fight off the greater evil.

I think ultimately Democrats are going to have a harder time keeping their voters on the same page in the general election next year than the Republicans.