Clipper Nation

New ClipsNation Blog

2006-09-25T12:48:00.000-07:00

Well, ladies and gentlemen, I have arrived. I now have a new blog, with a color scheme and a logo and everything. Please join me at www.clipsnation.com.

Bulls in '07?

2006-09-22T10:12:00.000-07:00

Our boy Chris Mannix, whom I praised as insightful a mere 4 weeks ago, has gone WAY OUT on a limb and picked the Bulls to win the Championship this season.

As you might imagine, this has generated as much of a buzz as one can get for basketball in September over at blogabull.com (amid the speculation that Mannix could be either too far on or too far off his meds).

I always intended to post something about the Bulls signing of Ben Wallace. In fact, I kind of thought I did, but then I checked the archives and couldn't find anything. Nothing in email either. I guess all of my (brilliant) analysis was on the phone or in IM with Timmy T, a Detroit fan and Ben-lover.

I've never been very secretive about my opinion that Ben Wallace is perhaps the most over-rated player in the NBA. Not that he isn't great; he's just not 5 consecutive all NBA selections great. The best is when I explain to Timmy T how Ben is no where near the player Marcus Camby is, just for kicks. He gets particularly perturbed by that. Good times.

At the time the Bulls signed Ben, several things struck me. One was that in addition to being over-rated, Ben was now overpaid. And of course there is the massive miscalculation the Pistons made by trading Darko for nothing, assuming Ben would re-sign. But the overwhelming feeling I got at the time was how it made no sense for Chicago. The only way it made sense to sign a 32 year old for 4/$60 was if they were going to win a ring THIS YEAR, a concept I find laughable. And yet, here is a guy who apparently gets paid to write about the NBA (lucky bastard) who has predicted exactly that. Wow. I did not see that coming.

Ben's numbers have been declining for 3 seasons. While his rebounding and shot blocking are still terrific, it has been several years since he has led the league in either category, although everyone seems to think that he is the be-all end-all in each discipline. I will not disparage his intensity - he certainly has the heart of a champion. But he has the hands of a stone mason. He is the single biggest offensive liability in the league.

To think that Chicago would win an NBA championship this season, when their best low post scorer is... um... is... give me a minute... is... Kirk Hinrich? Chris Duhon? THEY DON'T HAVE A SINGLE LOW POST SCORER ON THEIR ROSTER! OK, maybe Sweetney. But C'MON! And I know that the game is changed, I know it's more of a perimeter game now, I know, I know. But when was the last time a team won a ring with an exclusively perimeter oriented offense? Even Detroit had 'Sheed to post up from time to time.

The ultimate irony (and I am undoubtedly the only one who believes this) is that I think they were probably closer to a ring BEFORE this summer's machinations. I'll admit, I never had to watch Tyson Chandler day in and day out, and I'm sure Bulls fans will inform me of how much he is the anti-Ben, but speaking as a guy who follows stats for a fantasy league, there was a time when a healthy Tyson Chandler playing solid minutes was putting up rebouding and block numbers that were positively Wallasian (Ben-esque?). Will they be better this season? Sure. But they won't win a ring during the 4 years Wallace is in town (not without another major influx of talent, which I suppose could arrive in the form of Greg Oden if the Knicks oblige). Meanwhile, although it was a long shot, if Tyson Chandler ever reached his full potential, they would have been terrific in a few years, when Chandler is 27 and Ben is 35.

Not that I'm a big Tony Mejia fan, but in his pre-season center rankings, he has Ben as the 7th best Center, and Tyson as the 13th best. Most people might not agree, but it's not absurd. Are the Bulls going to win a ring based on that relatively minor upgrade? Hard to see it. And that's this season, when Ben is 32 and Tyson is 24. Project out 4 years. You get the idea.

I guess it's nice for Paxson to get a LITTLE justification for the signing. He had to know that the only way it made since was if it produced a ring, and now here is someone else who thinks that could happen. And plenty of people have correctly pointed out that Wallace had to be overpaid in order to leave a great situation in Detroit.

You have to gamble to win a ring. But there's no way it's happening. No way.

NBA 2010, Part 4

2006-09-21T10:43:00.000-07:00

A pretty interesting topic on espn.com's NBA 2010 series today. I guess I find it interesting, because I asked the same question back in May, during the Clippers-Suns series. The NBA 2010 question today is "Which player will rise from mediocrity a la Boris Diaw?" I call these guys Diamonds in the Rough, and I posted a couple of times about it here and here.

On the whole, I like the picks of the espn panel today. I can kibitz plenty:

- Gerald Wallace can't have a break out year this season, since he already had a break out year last season - the only thing that can change is that people might notice;

- Carlos Arroyo is a gutsy choice (to use a kind word) given that Jameer Nelson is going to play point for Orlando, and I really don't think they'll play them together, as much as I like Arroyo;

- J.R. Smith is a stretch, but at least a plausible one, though it looks a lot like a homer pick coming from a Denver sportswriter;

- and speaking of homers, what is the deal with this guy from London? In 4 days, he's managed to reference every player in the NBA with ties to Great Britain except Michael Olowokandi. Even so, Luol Deng is not a bad pick either.

This is obviously a topic that is near and dear to the hearts of any fantasy team owner. Who can you pick up in the later rounds of the draft who might end up being a MAJOR contributor? (That's what makes the Gerald Wallace so obviously out of whack in this category. Wallace will be a VERY HIGH pick in everyone's fantasy league. He's not rising from mediocrity. On the other hand, there wasn't a fantasy owner in America who picked Diaw - the guy was on waivers to start the season in every fantasy league, but ended up being a HUGE fantasy player.)

Back in May, I proposed Shaun Livingson (so I'm a homer too) and Dan Dickau as candidates for this list. I also tried to get some feedback going, but I had pretty much ZERO readers then, so nobody responded. Let's see how many readers I have now! Send me candidates for this season's 'Diamond in the Rough.'

NBA 2010, Part 3

2006-09-20T11:58:00.000-07:00

Well, I wasn't going to post on the NBA 2010 series on espn.com today. I really wasn't. It's not that interesting of a series, and I didn't think I had too much more to say about it. But then they went and had not one but two Clipper references, so I figured I was obligated to say something.

Today's question is, "Which player is most likely to eventually supplant Dirk Nowitzki as the best international player in the NBA?"

Marc Spears, who provided easily the lamest answers to the first two questions in the series, continues his streak by picking Sofoklis Schortsianitis, MBFGC. Obviously, Clipper Nation hopes he is correct, especially if the Clips can buy out his Olympiakos contract any time soon. (I'm still not clear on how big a mistake they made by not getting him here this year.) But, supplanting Dirk? I mean, I know MBFGC is only 21 (Dirk is 28), so he's in the right age range. Yao is only 26. Is Sofo going to be better than Yao any time soon? We can certainly hope. (FYI, after watching him the Worlds, I do like his game... A LOT. But 'best international player in the NBA' which equates to best non US born player in the world, is a stretch.)

I will give Spears credit for making a bold choice. Picking Yao or Darko is pretty tame. Picking someone who has yet to play a minute in the NBA is definitely more gutsy. I might go with Yi from China. He's only 19, a complete FREAK of an athlete, 6'11" and still growing. He could be really special. It's not a stretch to say he could be better than Yao.

(The second Clipper reference, btw, was singling out Yao's 25 and 17 against Kaman last season. Of course Yao has always KILLED Kaman, so to imply that having a big game against the Clips proves he's truly arrived is disingenuous. Don't know why exactly, but Yao just owns Kaman.)

No one picked Andrea Bargnani, which tells you what people think of this year's draft.

Finally, does anyone else find it strange that Dirk is being presented as the pinnacle, when the TWO TIME DEFENDING MVP is also foreign born? I'd say Dirk has to supplant Nash before anyone has to supplant Dirk.

NBA 2010, Part 2

2006-09-19T10:15:00.000-07:00

The problem with espn.com's little exercise, is that two to three years isn't really a very long time. And then Marc Spears keeps cheating and using free agency three summers from now as part of his answer.

Look, anyone can IMAGINE that Kobe could get hurt or LeBron could get hurt. Problem is, Kobe has averaged 73 games a season for 10 seasons, and has never missed more than 17 games. LeBron's never missed more than 3 games in a season. So, there's no justification for imagining that one of them might could hurt. Might Cleveland or the Lakers suffer without their respective uber-stars? Sure. And in the immortal words of Wayne Campbell, monkeys might fly out of my butt. (That's not really apropos, but I do like Wayne Campbell.)

Now, surmising that 32 year old, Steve 'gimpy back' Nash could miss a significant amount of time in a season? That's not unreasonable.

But it's not always injuries and defections that change a team's fortunes. Bear in mind that the Phoenix Suns had the 6th worst record in the league a mere 3 seasons ago (the same span that we're projecting forward) with a team that included Stephon Marbury, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire and Joe Johnson. Obviously, this says something about Starbury, but it also says something about coaching and systems. If D'Antoni were to leave Phoenix, or if the rest of the league were to figure out what he is doing, the wheels could conceivably come off for the Suns. Especially as Nash slows down.

I also look at the Lakers (who at number 10, are the team closest to the lottery already.) This is a team that won 34 games with Kobe and Lamar in 04-05. Is there any reason to think they have more talent now than they did then? They're still basically Kobe and Lamar and a bunch of other guys who probably shouldn't be starting in the NBA. They have nothing remotely resembling an NBA point guard, and let's face it, this is uncharted territory for Phil Jackson. He's never had to play guru tricks just to get a team into the first round of the playoffs. It seems possible to me that his Jedi ways won't work without the Ring as the ultimate prize. I Kwame Brown really gonna sit on the plane and read Lao Tse just so the Lakers can finish 6th in the West? I'm guessing he'd rather play PSP.

Miami will decline, but probably not to the 'low lottery'. Remember that 5 of their top 8 players are over 30, and that really big guy is 34, with a body type that has never been known to thrive into the late 30s in the NBA. Moses Malone played in his last all-star game at the age of 33. His minutes per game dropped from 34 at the age of 34 to 23 at the age of 35. Wilt averaged 27 ppg at 33, 20 at 34, 15 at 35, 13 at 36 and then retired. 34 or 35 seems to be the wall for the mega-giants. When you're carrying around 300 pounds, the legs are gonna go, no matter what kind of freakish specimen you are.

And what about Detroit? They have a coach who has experience taking teams from the Conference Finals to the lottery, and they are beginning to experience some bad luck after an uninterrupted string of colossally good luck that allowed them to get 5 of their super 6 (Ben Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince, Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace) for a late first round pick, Zelkjo Rebraca, some money and the remains of Grant Hill. If you subscribe to the 'Joe Dumars is a genius' school of thought, then the Pistons will remain a top team. If, on the other hand, you take a more 'Joe Dumars has been lucky and his luck will run out' approach, they could slide. We'll see. I'm assuming they'll re-sign Billups, and remain a playoff team, but with a bloated payroll and not enough talent to get back to the finals as their comeuppance.

And then there are the Clippers. On paper, with young, signed stars, younger improving future stars, and a fairly obvious path toward keeping this group together (re-sign restricted free agents, re-sign Brand in 09, etc.), the Clippers should be a playoff team for awhile. BUT, do not discount the Clipper mystique. One botched negotiation (say an acrimonious departure of Chris Kaman) and the 'worst franchise in pro sports' talk could start again, and from there things could go south in a hurry.

It isn't always an injury that dooms a formerly top team to mediocrity.

NBA 2010

2006-09-18T17:51:00.000-07:00

So, our friends over at espn.com are featuring something they call NBA 2010 this week. In their own words, "All this week, ESPN.com will be looking ahead a few years in an attempt to see what the NBA will look like in the year 2010."

What a completely pointless waste of time! It's just an excuse to espouse an opinion about the basketball universe when in fact there's simply nothing to talk about! How sad and pathetic. Sounds like fun! Can I play too?

So, today's feature was "Which one of the Bottom 10 teams (Blazers, Knicks, Hawks, Wolves, Bobcats, Warriors, Raptors, Rockets, Celtics, Sonics) can win a championship in the next couple of years?"

First things first (and I know that I can be a little anal about these things, but it's my blog), who picked the number 10? Isn't this a tad arbitrary? Seattle is a member of the cellar dweller club at 35-47, but Orlando is not at 36-48? Seems like it should be limited to the truly horrible (there's a pretty clean break at the bottom 5, 27 wins for Toronto and 33 wins for Minny and Boston), or it should be the 14 non-playoff teams, which is at least a meaningfully arbitrary cut off. (Meaningfully arbitrary... I like that.)

OK, whatever. Orlando would be a decent pick if I was allowed to pick them, but rules are rules.

Of course, what I really want to do is diss the picks of the so-called experts.

John Denton picks the Houston Rockets, who really shouldn't even be on the list. Of course they would not be a bottom 10 team if TMac and Yao had not spent significant time in street clothes. So picking them is just too easy. Doesn't count.

Marc Spears picks the Knicks. Oh my god. Where to start? His reasoning is that 'either LeBron James or Dwyane Wade will be wearing a Knicks uniform after his contract ends.' Well, first of all, the name of the feature is NBA 2010, and even if this were to happen, they would have to win the title in that player's first year in MSG, and even then, it would be the 2011 title! Plus, the question says 'next couple of years.' A couple is two, not three and definitely not four! But ignoring all of those problems, it seems next to impossible to think that LeBron (or Wade) could become a Knick when his current deal is up. They won't be under the salary cap (it would be virtually impossible even if they started trying to get there now, and it would entail a level of sophistication and focus that neither Isiah Thomas nor James Dolan have heretofor exhibited), and they would only be able to offer bloated contracts in return for King James. Why would the Cavs work a sign-and-trade with an Eastern Conference team with no decent trade assets? It ain't happening.

Only Chris Sheridan offers a decent answer. (Picking Minnesota is a little like picking Houston - it's too easy. They were in the Western Conference finals two years ago. They have KG. Of course they have a chance. What fun is that?) Now, picking Charlotte, with a not implausible Vince Carter free agent signing next summer... that's an interesting pick. Sheridan also gets extra credit for specifically eschewing the Rockets pick as unworthy. Well played sir!

Off-Season Moves

2006-09-15T10:45:00.000-07:00

OK, this isn't MY take on off-season moves. It's my take on Mark Stein's take on off-season moves.

When all is said and done, this may be the reason I started blogging... so that I could rant about the silly, unjustified things that I see written all the time, and more importantly, so I could write my own silly, unjustified stuff.

In Stein's own words, he is making a list of "offseason assessments, not predicted order of finish for the coming season." If that is the case, how can you make Miami number one in the East? Doesn't that sound a LOT like a predicted order of finish? I mean, you're setting the bar pretty low if NOT losing your coach vaults you automatically to the top of the list.

Miami's rotation goes 8 deep. Anyone who says that Jason Kapono or Michael Doleac counts is kidding themselves. In fact, Derek Anderson and Shandon Anderson represented their 'depth' after the first 8, and they're both gone.

Of the 8 man rotation, 5 of them are over 30 years old (GP 38, 'Zo 36, Shaq 34, Williams 31 and Walker 30). Hell, Posey will be 29 in January. What I'm saying is, an off-season assessment should be about, did the team get better or worse during the off-season. What else could it be? Miami got worse - they were old and they got older.

There's nothing so egregious in Stein's Western Conference report card. Hard to argue with the Hornets in the top spot, or the Grizz in the last spot (if we're counting injuries). But San Antonio in third is totally unjustified. He tries to 'justitify' it by applying a double standard. Did the Hornets overpay for Peja? It doesn't matter, they got better so they are number 1. Did San Antonio lose both their centers? Sure, but they replaced them by splitting the mid-level, and they'll be able to reload around Timmy, Tony and Manu in 2 years. Wait a minute? Is this off-season assessment about being better than last year, or about making good business decisions? Make up your mind.

By the way, the Clippers came out fourth in the West. I would argue that there isn't much personnel upgrade from the end of season edition - Tim Thomas for VladRad is a small upgrade. But the Clippers are the anti-Heat on the age thing. Sure Sam Cassell got older - but so did Shaun Livingston and Chris Kaman.

Brand Post World's

2006-09-14T15:32:00.000-07:00

Elton Brand was interviewed in Toronto recently, where he was attending the film festival in his other role of movie producer. You can check out the interview for yourself, but I gotta say, Elton is a pretty smart cookie. He's got a good handle on what happened in the World Championships, he gets in a couple of contructive suggestions about the team without being overly critical of the powers that be... all around, a classy way of saying, "JUST GET ME THE DAMN BALL."

Some Love for Kaman

2006-09-14T15:10:00.000-07:00

SLAMOnline is counting down a 'Top 50', the 50 Best Players in the NBA. And for once in his life, Clippers' center Chris Kaman gets some love!

So, maybe number 48 is not THAT much love, especially considering that they've only gotten to number 45 and he's already behind 2 guys that have never played a MINUTE in the NBA (Bargnani at 47 and Morrison at 45.) But for a guy who somehow manages to go unnoticed despite the fact that he is over 7 feet tall and REALLY UGLY, being on ANY list is a step up.

Aside from putting the number 48 next to his name however, SLAM doesn't really give us much insight into the Kaveman. In a four paragraph piece we get mentions of the hair, Reggie Evans gettin' grabby AND Michael Olowokandi being tazered. Where is the critique of Kaman's game? No mention of the fact that he's a true center who can score with his back to the basket, that he can score with either hand.... c'mon. This is a basketball piece, right?

They don't even have their facts straight...

When the playoffs came around he wasn’t healthy, and the Clips lost a seven game series to Phoenix. With a healthy Kaman, who knows what would have happened. He’s valuable enough a player to swing a playoff series the other way.

Look, I'll make excuses for the Clippers as soon as the next guy, but Kaman's health? Really? Chris Kaman was no less healthy than any other player who just finished the 82 game season. The reason he was limited in the Phoenix series had everything to do with the fact that he can't pass out of double teams and can't guard Tim Thomas at the three point line, and nothing to do with health.

But, why quibble? At least someone has noticed that he's in the top 50.

While We're On the EuroLeague Subject....

2006-09-08T10:14:00.000-07:00

...let's once and for all put to bed the notion that the other teams in international basketball have some sort of systemic advantage that allows them to play together more. The Team USA excuse of "It's hard to play team basketball when you've only been playing together for 3 weeks" has got to be recognized for what it is: an excuse.

Of course, part of the problem is that the structure of European basketball is poorly understood here; and we're primarily talking about European leagues, since most of the good teams are European, and all of the great players (from Argentina, for instance) either play in the NBA or in the European leagues. So until China wins a Gold Medal (which will happen some day), we'll focus on the European leagues.

First of all, there is a difference between the EuroLeague, and the European leagues. Like the Champions League in European soccer, the EuroLeague brings together the BEST teams from various Domestic European leagues to compete against each other. The EuroLeague starts play in early November, and the Final Four is at the end of April, and I think people get confused and think those players are free to practice with the National team beginning in May.

But remember, these EuroLeague teams are first and foremost part of their own domestic league (Olympiakos is in the Greek League, Barcelona and Tau Ceramica are in the ACB in Spain, etc.) In the vast majority of cases, these leagues begin play sooner than the NBA, some as early as September, most some time in October), and their Championships mostly occur in June, just like the NBA.

So Dwyane Wade of the World Champion Miami Heat and Team USA had from June 20th until October 31 off this year. Juan Carlos Navarro, of Barcelona and WORLD Champion Spain, had from June 9 (Barcelona lost in the semis of the ACB) until October 1! That's correct. Wade has 30 more days to recoup after Japan than Navarro.

What does happen to be true is that the NBA plays more games. But not as many more as you might think. The NBA regular season is 82 games, followed by a maximum of 28 playoff games. So it is not unusual for NBA players to actually play in over 100 games in a season (Wade played in 98 last season.) Top European stars play a 34 game domestic league season, followed by a maximum of 15 playoff games. But then you can add in 25 EuroLeague games, and several more for their National Cup competition. When all is said and done, European players can easily play over 80 games in a single season. And of course a lot of them are playing NBA schedules along side DWade.

Henry Abbott at truehoop.com argued convincingly last week that the NBA season is just plain too long and of course he's right. But that is certainly not going to change, and any perceived disadvantage it presents to Team USA is simply not significant, as I've illustrated above.

Then there is the argument that the players from other national teams have simply played together more. Well, whose fault is that? Ironically, the fact that the talent pool is deeper in the USA probably contributes to this problem. Or rather, the relatively shallow pool in other countries puts the same players on the court together year after year. But we could do that too, right? And at any rate, are we really going to sit around and whine about how unfair it is to us because we're TOO TALENTED to have any consistency? How arrogant are we?

Of course, Kobe Bryant has been extended an invitation to each of the last three major competitions (the three the US did not win, btw), and initially said yes. He has NEVER actually played for Team USA. How good would Argentina be if Ginobili never played?

So all of these perceived, built-in disadvantages that supposedly stack the deck against the US in international competitions are all a bunch of crap. The other guys want it more, and they prove that by showing up when their country calls, by working hard preparing for these tournaments, and by playing their asses off. I'm not saying that this edition of Team USA didn't play hard - but I do think Team USA leadership is hesitant to ask them to do too much. If you're going to use 'three weeks of prep time' as an excuse, how about beginning practice sooner? My AYSO Under 8 Girls team practiced for a month before our first game, for Pete's Sake! And did anyone TELL Team USA to run an offense, or did they maybe think their overburdened superstars would handle it better if they just ran isos?

Stop making excuses for these guys. Either win the Gold Medal, or graciously congratulate the guys who did. But stop making excuses.

Go Olympiakos!

2006-09-08T09:48:00.000-07:00

So suddenly, I'm a fan of Olympiakos in the Greek League...

(Unfortunately, I'm not sure I know how to spell it. I've seen it spelled Olympiakos and Olympiacos. Transliteration problems from the Cyrillic alphabet, dontcha know.)

Not only is Sofoklis Schortsianitis (MBFGC) on the Reds, I just realized that they're the team that signed Alex Acker this summer! Being a Pepperdine Alum, I was hoping that Alex would stick with the Pistons, but he got a better offer from Olympiakos and is heading to Greece. They also signed Arvydas Macijauskas away from the Hornets, so that makes three NBA properties that they outbid NBA teams for this summer alone. So they have money. Which is nice.

Greek League begins play in late October (about a week before the Assoc.), and EuroLeague starts the first week in November. EuroLeague Action! It's FAN-tastic!

Can We Fix It? Yes, We Can!

2006-09-06T17:07:00.000-07:00

Maybe instead of Jerry Colangelo, Team USA needs Bob The Builder.

The bottom line for Colangelo and Krzyzewski and the players is that they said it was a three year plan - that a big part of addressing the problem is keeping a team together across multiple competitions. So, they're admitting up front that the problem won't be solved in 2006, which of course it wasn't.

But are they on the right track?

The two biggest problems with the 2004 Athens team were once again on display in Japan: not enough shooters, and poor play at the point. It's hard to figure how they failed to solve the shooting problem - aside from Michael Redd begging off, they just didn't really INVITE enough pure shooters into camp. As for point guard, they are at least moving in the right direction. In Athens, they played the WRONG point guards (Marbury and Iverson), shoot first guys on an all star team that still plays with just one basketball. Chris Paul and Kirk Hinrich are the right 'type' of point guard, but they're just young. They looked overwhelmed when the competition got tight (especially Paul). But they should be a lot better in Beijing.

But this team seemed to introduce a new problem. Suddenly Team USA is small. The 12 man roster included a grand total of 4 guys who play the 4 or the 5 for their NBA squad (Brand, Howard, Bosh and Miller). Miller was the 12th man. Bosh was the 10th or 11th. Only occasionally did they play two of them together during the tournament. Instead, the vast majority of the time, they played either Brand or Howard at the 5 (they both play 4 in the assoc.), and played Carmelo Anthony or LeBron James at the 4. And for several stretches (including most of the 4th quarter in the loss to Greece), they had NONE of their bigs in the game. (These stretches felt a little 'Emperor's New Clothes-y" to me. When Dallas 'went' small in the NBA playoffs, the announcers were all over it. But here was Team USA playing Carmelo Anthony at 5, LeBron James at 4 and Dwyane Wade at 3, and no one said a word. It was eerie.)

You can make an argument that Team USA's worst game was the loss to Greece (since it was the only loss), and that their best game was the Bronze Medal win over Argentina. In the loss to Greece, Brand / Howard / Bosh combined to play 30 minutes. (Miller got a DNP.) Now me, I'd be looking for that number to be up near 80, since these are the only legit 4's and 5's on the team, and the game lasts 40 minutes. But they didn't even combine to play all of the minutes at the 5! Against Argentina, they combined for 51 minutes (another DNP for poor Brad.) Look, I know they fell behind and were trying to catch up playing small(er). But 30 minutes? That's not just 'trying to catch up time'. Some of those minutes were definitely 'falling further behind time.' And it's not like Greece was smaller than Argentina. Rather than going to 5 small forwards and trying to play the pick-and-roll that way, did we consider putting Howard and Brand in the game, so that we'd have a shot blocker at the rim?

Why is the nation with the biggest and deepest talent pool getting out-bigged at the World Championships? Obviously, assistant coach Mike D'Antoni has a lot to do with it. He's had great success playing small lineups in Phoenix. But here's the thing - he only has small guys to choose from in Phoenix! "Let's see, should I play Leandro Barbosa or Brian Grant?" That's a different scenario than "Joe Johnson or Elton Brand." Besides, D'Antoni has success DURING THE REGULAR SEASON. In a single elimination tournament, why are we rolling the dice and shooting 40 threes against Germany?

After the Germany game, Coach K watched the tape and declared that of the 40 threes, only one of them was a bad shot. I say, don't be such a wimp. If it's a bad shot, say so. Any three this team took with more than 15 seconds on the shot clock, of which there were probably 30 in that game, was a bad shot. You can get a good look at a three any time. Why take one before you've even tried to get the ball inside? Oh that's right, there's no one inside to go to.

And it's not like there was ANYBODY on this team that I'm thinking, "YES, they're open for a three - that's money!" NOT ONE GUY. Do you know how many threes Chris Bosh made during the 05-06 NBA season? Zero. 0-13. Know how many he took in 8 World Championship games? 2 attempts in 8 games. In 108 minutes. That's almost 1 per 48. Now obviously two attempts is not a lot, but it's definitely 2 too many. WHY? Why is D'Antoni telling these guys to shoot the first open three they see? That's not who these guys are. The list goes on: Carmelo Anthony took 50 threes (50!) in 9 games. Over 5 and a half per game! And he shot 25% from three during the NBA season. Dwyane Wade took 18 threes in 8 games. That's more than he made in 80 NBA games (13). WHY?

It is interesting that, while Larry Brown was (deservedly) lambasted for mistakes as Team USA's coach in 2004, Krzyzewski has largely escaped criticism of any sort. What little criticism is out there, like this piece from San Antonio, doesn't even really hit the mark. The worst thing he did was cut Bruce Bowen? REALLY? Bowen single-handedly would have stopped the pick-and-roll? As it happens, pick-and-roll defense involves at least two players, and pretty much all five to really do it right. But whatever.

How about taking him to task for his team's lack of discipline in shot selection? How about taking him to task for making exactly ZERO adjustments to the Greek pick-and-roll? Or how about the fact that he appeared to have little or no idea who the guys on the other teams were? "Number 7", for your information Coach K, is Spanoulis, and he'll be with the Rockets next year. And, oh, one more thing: even if you had never scouted him (which it appears you had not), it took about three possessions for me to tell that he ONLY goes left, even if the screen is on the right. Yet the US defense never figured that out.

But by far my biggest criticism has to do with the total lack of a half-court offense. It was painfully obvious to me from the beginning of Pool Play that Team USA's entire game plan was to force turnovers and run. That's great. But good teams are going to handle the pressure, and stop the fast break. Then what? It turns out, the plan was to go one-on-one if the fast break wasn't available. And that's not a good plan.

Now, I'm not generally a conspiracy theorist, but the 'Melo-'Bron-Wade Holy Trinity is beginning to look mighty suspicious. David Stern and the NBA want / need for these guys to become the Magic-Bird-Michael of this generation. By making them tri-captains and apparently deferring to them at every turn, Coach K certainly appears to be doing Stern's bidding on this one. The problem is, unless you have Wade play the point, in order to play these guys at the same time, you're forced to play Anthony at the 4 and LeBron at the 3. These guys are all really terrific wings - the best in the business. But last I checked airplanes, birds, and basketball courts all have two wings.

And those of you who think Kobe Bryant is the answer (I'm looking at you, Tony Mejia) need to do the math also. Kobe Bryant will NOT subjugate his game to the Holy Trinity. Is he an upgrade over any one of those three? Sure, probably. But not a significant one, and that's not where the Gold Medal was lost, and you sure as HELL can't play all FOUR of those guys at one time. That's a custody battle waiting to happen, and who suffers? The ball, that's who.

Can Team USA win Gold in Beijing? Sure they can. They could have won Gold in Japan if not for a hot-shooting Greek team. But I'm far from convinced that they are the favorite. The Holy Trinity have to prove me wrong, and prove that they are as good as Stern / Krzyzewski think they are. And maybe playing together in a couple more competitions will make a big difference. Certainly some on court rapport would help immensely.

More importantly, Team USA has to get bigger, and more disciplined. Chris Paul will be better in two years than he is now, and that will be a HUGE improvement for the team. And we need more shooters. Michael Redd is the ONE guy from the current list that I would find a spot for, no matter what. And I'd ask Ray Allen to re-consider.

And maybe I'd look into some half court offenses. I hear this thing the 'Flex' is catching on.

MBFGC

2006-09-06T15:54:00.000-07:00

Up until this point, I've posted a couple of things (here and here) about Sofoklis Schortisianitis (My Big Fat Greek Center) without seeing more than a couple of highlight reels.

I finally got the chance to see him play in the semi-final against the US and in the final against Spain, and I gotta say, I'm pretty impressed. Obviously, he did not have a good game against Spain; the Greek coach pulled him quickly, limiting him to 7 minutes (although given the fact that NOTHING was working afor Greece, I'm a little surprised that they didn't stick with him longer.) The Spanish defense did expose one shortcoming in his game that was not evident against the US - he had trouble making decisions against the double-team, and turned the ball over several times when Spain came with a quick double. Of course, after 8 years of Michael Olowokandi and Chris Kaman, this is a painfully familiar problem for Clipper Nation.

But against the US, he looked very good. He has several things that you can't teach: he's big (obviously), he has soft hands, and he has quick feet. Amazingly, he got a couple of baskets against the US by OUTRUNNING DWIGHT HOWARD down the floor. He has got to be the fastest 320 pound dude I've ever seen. He uses his body well around the basket, and he has the ability to make tough catches in traffic and finish. Now, I've seen him listed up to 6'11", and he's nowhere near that tall - he's maybe 6'9". But size is size, and it's still worth something. The NBA is obsessed with 'length', and he's not 'long', but he is BIG. He won't block shots for you, but he'll take up space, he'll set BIG screens, and he'll score in the low block. I will say that his rebounding numbers for the tournament were pretty anemic for a guy his size. And unfortunately the one area where he truly earns his Baby Shaq sobriquet is at the line; but his release looks good and his shot looks soft, so I see no reason that is FT shooting shouldn't improve.

In the USA game, he was 6 for 7 from the field, and ironically the one shot he missed was a dunk all by himself. He only missed 3 shots in the entire TOURNAMENT. Of course, the US spent much of the first half trying to check him with Chris '230 soaking wet' Bosh, and spent the second half switching Kirk Hinrich onto him on the pick and roll, but that's a subject for another post.

During the ESPN2 telecast of USA-Greece, Fran Frischilla implied that the Clippers had made an offer this summer, but that he took a better offer from Olympiakos to stay in Greece. I haven't heard that anywhere else, but it would be disconcerting to think that we low-balled a quality big, especially if Rebraca is done. Does anybody out there know anything about offers the Clippers made to MBFGC?

The good news I came across said that the buyout in MBFGC's Olympiakos contract is only $500,000. If that is true, it would be encouraging. It would mean that (a) he knows he's destined for the Assoc. eventually and (b) the Clippers can get him any time they are willing to pay him.

My favorite item was the one that said he is "reportedly being pursued by the Cleveland Clippers." I know our expectations should not be real high from the Taipei Times, but this guy LeBron plays in Cleveland. You'd think they'd at least know the Cavs and the Rockets, right?

Finally, how do you think MBFGC is going to affect Kaman's extension negotiation? If you answered "The Clippers will let Kaman become a restricted free agent, and even then will not match a large contract offer, but instead will let him walk and then bring MBFGC over to be the starting center for about a quarter the price..." well, if you answered that, you read my mind. I'm not saying it's the right thing to do (although it may well be); I'm just saying I think that's what they'll do.

A World of Hurt

2006-09-01T11:06:00.000-07:00

You guys all know me well enough to know that I enjoy being right. The smartest guy in the room... I told you so... you've heard it all a million times. But I really wanted the US to win this game. I really did.

I can't face a full screed about this right now. I've said most of it before. But I have some quick points (OK, a lot of quick points):

1) SHUT UP ABOUT THE UPSET - Jim Durham must have said 20 times druing the second half that this was the biggest upset of the tournament. Not even close, OK. Lebanon beat France in Pool Play. That's a big upset. Fran Frischilla (that rarest of animals, an American basketball commentator who knows something about International basketball) kept politely correcting Durham ("This is a minor upset, JD"), but 'Bull' Durham would have none of it.

2) SHUT UP ABOUT THE RULE DIFFERENCES - It's still basketball, people. Oh, and btw, on the trapezoidal lane, do the friggin' math. Yes, it's wider at the bottom, but it's more narrow at the top. The backboard is 4 feet in from the baseline. So unless you're an IDIOT and you are trying to establish post up position BEHIND the backboard, the difference is LESS THAN 12 INCHES, and at the mid-post, you're actually CLOSER to the rim.

3) STOP SAYING STUFF WITHOUT JUSTIFICATION - From Marty Burns on SI.com (whose article on the whole wasn't bad): "With its trapezoid lane, shorter three-point line and quirky officiating, one-on-one play is not as important." What the hell does that even mean? How do the trapezoid lane (which at any rate is no big deal, see 2), a shorter three-point line and quirky officiating in any way impact the relative effectiveness of one-on-one play? The ONLY conceivable rule difference that would impact one-on-one versus team play is the absence of a defensive three second rule, which he declines to include in his list. As for the officiating, yes it's quirky but it's quirky both ways. The big difference with officiating is that FIBA doesn't employ the NBA's star system, and let's face it, FIBA is right and the NBA is wrong on that one. The look on DWade's face was pretty comical when he didn't get calls. He's just not used to that with Dick Bavetta around to help him get up off the floor.

4) The days of US domination are simply over, and that's not bad. Did anyone really ENJOY watching the Dream Team (the real one) in Barcelona? It was a joke. But the vast majority of that gap has been closed by the other teams getting better, not the US getting worse. Sure, we've gotten worse - but that team had arguably the three greatest (and smartest) players ever. You can only get worse from there. (People also forget about the timing of Barcelona - The Soviet Union had just broken apart, followed shortly thereafter by Yugoslavia. The two best international teams were a mess in 1992, and hadn't really recovered by 1996. I think it gave us an air of invincibility that wasn't justified, even then. And obviously, the team itself has had a huge impact on the competition we see now. Think the 7 year-old Sergio Rodriquez watched a few of the Barcelona games and thought about how cool it would be to pass like Magic Johnson? You betcha.)

5) This result is not a failure. If the days of domination are over, and if part of 'fixing' the USA Basketball program is having consistency, then you can't really judge the 3-year-plan based on the 1-year result. If the Gold Medal was guaranteed in the first year, you wouldn't need the 3-year-plan, now would you? We've now seen Ginobili, Sanchez, Oberto, Scola, Herrmann, Nocioni and Delfino (among others) in three straight major competitions. Beijing will be the third for LBJ, 'Melo, Wade, etc. If the plan is to have a consistent program, then great, that's the plan.

6) Oh sorry, I have another shut up.... SHUT UP ABOUT THE ABSENCE OF PREPARATION TIME FOR THE US TEAM. Chris Broussard (ESPN Insider required) had a good line on this one: "Don't give me this jive about Greece, Spain and Argentina playing together so long. Those guys play on different teams, and sometimes in different countries, during the season. They're not holed up in some gym playing together year round." Great point. To listen to Jim Durham, you'd think all any of these guys do is compete for their National Team. Every guy on these top rosters is a PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL PLAYER. They have LONG SEASONS and they make LOTS OF MONEY. Have they played together as a unit more over the years? Maybe. But if they prepare more for any single tournament, that is a decision they are making, and one the US could choose to make as well. They just want it more.

7) The question remains, why does one-on-one basketball rule in the NBA, but not in these international competitions? Of the last 1700 NBA Champions, only one of them (the 2004 Pistons) managed to win a ring without a legitimate MVP candidate. Moreover, the basic NBA offensive set consists of an iso to force a double team. Why? A contributing factor is definitely the 'quick fix' attitude of NBA GM's. The easiest way to get more W's is by signing a superstar, either in free agency or in the draft. But couldn't you try to find talented players AND play team basketball? The one does not necessarily preclude the other. The answer to my question is that one-on-one basketball rules the NBA because we (coaches, players, fans) allow it to. Talented players in the US are identified by the age of 10, and are placed in superstar systems all along the way, from local teams to AAU to high school, college and the pros. The ego of the player is always more important than anything else. I'm not really sure why it's different in Europe, but the professional club team approach may have a lot to do with it. A talented 16 year old in Spain will go pro, and maybe he'll be a star for the junior team, but he's also getting drilled in practice by the senior team from time to time, and picking up jock straps. Broussard had another great ovservation on this one. He thinks that International fans, players and coaches are "beginning to view American basketball like America's 'real basketball' fans, players and coaches view And1 Streetball." Ouch. And probably true.

8) Last point for now. THIS TOURNAMENT IS NOT OVER YET. Team USA has to play Argentina in the Bronze Medal game. Do we care about the Bronze Medal? Of course not. But we had BETTER care about beating Argentina, because they damn well care about beating us. For the immediate future, there are maybe 8 or 10 teams that will be medal contenders in these competitions. We're one of them, Argentina is one of them. If we really want to win Gold Medals, we have GOT to get better at excelling against these teams, and it starts with this game.

Coming soon: what Team USA did wrong and how I would fix it.

Our Big Fat Greek Center

2006-08-31T10:25:00.000-07:00

When I gave an earlier update on Clippers draft pick Sofoklis Schortsianitis at the World Championships after Pool Play, he had been buried at the end of the bench. In fact, in the first 4 games of the tournament, he played a TOTAL of 9 minutes.

In the 3 games since, he has averaged 12 minutes a game, and over 11 points in those games. He is now the first big off the bench in the Greek rotation; this for a team that is undefeated in this tournament, and is the defending European Champion. Not bad for a 21 year old project.

His scoring efficiency has been absolutely other-worldly. He has only missed 1 shot in the tournament (12-13), and he gets to the line with Maggette-esque frequency (25 trips in 45 minutes played). Even with his Baby Shaq FT shooting (15 for 25, 60%), the guy is averaging 3 points per shot. Wow.

Here's the highlight reel of Sofo against China, including a big time throw down against Yao. Looking at this, one wonders why the Clippers haven't bought out his Greek contract yet and brought him to the NBA. Looks to me like he could help NOW. FIBA.com also has a pretty bland interview with him today, if you're interested.

Be sure and set your TiVo's (or stay up late, your call) for a chance to see him play against future teammate Elton Brand and Team USA on ESPN2, tonight / Friday morning, 12:30 AM here in Clipper Town (3:30 AM ET).

There's no I in 'Team USA'...

2006-08-31T09:56:00.000-07:00

... but there are three of them in "Vindictive."

As I speculated two weeks ago, Gilbert Arenas' 'hamstring injury' that forced him to drop off of Team USA was really just the excuse they used to avoid actually having to cut the guy. Now Gil, class act that he is, has gone public with the story. It's never easy to figure out what this guy is thinking, but seriously, WHAT IS THIS GUY THINKING!?!?

He bad mouths Colangelo and the process ("They said it was a tryout, but they already had their team selected"), Krzyzewski ("I was the only person he didn't talk to the whole time we were out there")... he even gets in a dig at the Holy Trinity ("You've got LeBron being LeBron. You've got Carmelo being Carmelo. You've got D-Wade being D-Wade. Why can't I be me?") Then he promises to hold a grudge against the assistant coaches ("I can't wait to play the Suns and Portland. Against Portland, Nate McMillan, I'm going to try to score 100 in two games and against D'Antoni, I'm going to score 100 in two games.")

But here's the great part... he's hoping to make the team for Beijing '08! "I'm just going to keep working hard. I have two years to get ready for the Olympics. That's how I look at it." Nice start, Gil. I'm sure that Colangelo, Krzyzewski, McMillan and D'Antoni will give you a real shot next time around.

Isn't there some sort of saying about burning bridges? I forget. Oh well, let's make up a new saying, just for Gil: "If at first you don't succeed, trash everyone involved, and try again."

When the Clippers tried to sign Arenas to a big contract, I thought they were offering him way too much. In fact, at the time I wasn't convinced he was worth more than Andre Miller. I will be the first to admit that I was wrong about the guy's talent - he is a monster. But I was right about the person - he is a monster. Sam Cassell handing the baton to Shawn Livingston is a significantly better point guard solution than 6 years of Gilbert Arenas.

On a more serious note, it is already starting. I've said it before, and it's already starting. The process for picking the Beijing team could get UGLY. I still don't think you should cut, say, Shane Battier, to open up a spot for, say, Kobe Bryant - not if this team wins the Gold Medal. But what happens if Kobe wants a spot and you don't give it to him? If Gil plans to hang 100 in two games on these guys, Kobe will shoot for 100 per.

Worlds Apart

2006-08-30T14:19:00.000-07:00

At halftime of the USA-Germany game on Wednesday, the US led Germany by a single point. This despite the fact that Dirk Nowitzki, Germany's lone premier player, was a dismal 1 for 7 and missed the last 3 minutes of the half after picking up his 3rd foul on a phantom whistle.

Of their 44 first half shots, 20 of them were from three-point range, and they had made only 5 of those.

So you figure Coach K will get in their faces and tell them to stop settling for 3's early in the shot clock and take the ball to the hole in the second half.

After halftime, the US pulled away and eventually won by 20. And of their 41 second half shots, 20 of them were from three point range, and they made only 5 of those!

Coaching is a funny thing. I am the first to say that Larry Brown had the 2004 Athens team on WAY too short a leash, and he made mediocre outside shooters into horrendous outside shooters by taking away their confidence. So, it's a good thing that Coach K has allowed these guys to play with confidence and take open shots. But C'MON! Can't we have a sound game plan AND instill confidence in the players? Is it too much to ask for both of those things?

40 out of 85 attempts from 3! Obviously, Mike D'Antoni is a big part of this, encouraging players to take the open 3, just as he does with the Suns. But the difference is, the Suns CAN'T score inside and CAN'T stop anyone on defense. They can beat physically superior teams by taking quick shots and forcing a fast tempo. But this US team is the deepest and physically most impressive in the world. Why is it playing this style?

It would be one thing if this roster was loaded with shooters. Indeed, much has been made of the improved 3 point shooting (as compared to 2004), but look at the players.

Of the top 10 3 point shooters in the NBA last season by percentage, only one of them is playing in the Worlds. And he plays for Brazil (Barbosa). Bruce Bowen was top 10, but, oh yeah, he got cut. So let's look at the top 20 - there's a name from today's game - it's Dirk Nowitzki. Top 30? Still no Team USA players. Not a single player from Team USA was in the Top 30 in 3 point percentage last season. Not one.

The best shooters on the roster, percentage wise from last season, are Battier and Jamison at 39%, tied for 32nd in the league. Of course, Jamison has fallen off the depth chart, and how do you feel about Battier shooting 3's? How do you think the other team's coach feels about it? He's deliriously happy, that's how he feels.

Of the 12 guys on the roster, only Hinrich and Joe Johnson are what I would consider 'shooters'. These are the only two guys who are out there to take open shots. (Battier should spot up and take 3's when he has them, but he's out there to play defense and hustle, not to shoot.) EVERYBODY else should be using open jump shots to set up the rest of their game.

Carmelo Anthony took 19 shots in the Germany game and 9 of them were 3's. NINE! The guy shot 25% from 3 last season! Dwyane Wade - 5 of his 11 attempts were 3's - he made 1 of them. This guy made 13 3's the WHOLE SEASON - he shot 17% from out there. Chris Paul - also 5 of his 11 attempts from 3. He shot 28% from 3 last year. That's 19 three point attempts from 3 guys who were all worse (sometimes much worse) than 30% last season.

Now I know that the line is shorter, and I know that Germany was playing a packed in zone, but guess what? If the zone forces poor outside shooters to take threes, then it's working. You have to attack the zone, not just stand around and shot 3's over it.

Everyone is lamenting the 25% shooting (10 of 40) from 3 in this game. But isn't 25% more in line with who these guys are than the 41% we saw before Wednesday?

We're done to 4 semi-finalists in this tournament who are all 7-0. Truth be told, these are the 4 best teams in this tournament by a BIG MARGIN. Lithuania and Serbia are rebuilding, France was without Tony Parker. These are the 4, and not one of them has really been pushed yet.

If the US keeps playing like the Phoenix Suns, they will lose one of the next two games. The pressure D is not going to hurt these teams, and they won't make enough 3's to outscore them. But of course, it seems obvious that they aren't going to change - not now. If you take 20 3's in the first half, lead by 1 against a team you should destroy, and then take 20 3's in the second half - well, either that's your game plan, or the players are running the team. Either way, the shots will be flying against Greece.

Worlds Update

2006-08-28T12:15:00.000-07:00

I came across something you don't see very often - a salient article about basketball on one of the big sports web sites. SI.com's Chris Mannix actually makes pertinent observations and provides a hint of thoughtful analysis regarding the US team's showing so far in the World Championships. Sure, he's got the pre-requisite hyperbole throw in as well (Argentina is Jordan to our Ehlo? Really?), but what are you gonna do? (Interestingly, the implication that Ginobili's Argentina has 'owned' the US in International Competition is flat wrong. Sure, Argentina won by 7 in 2002 in Indy and by 8 in 2004 in Athens, but the US destroyed them in Olympic Qualifying in 2003, winning twice overall and winning the Championship of that Qualifying Tournament by 30 points.)

Mannix is spot on about the total lack of a half-court offense for the US. If the pressure defense is producing steals, then maybe you can outscore a team on fast break points. But against well-coached teams with good guard play, those fast break points are going to be a lot harder to come by. In 6 games so far (5 in pool play, and then the round of 16 against Australia) basically only Italy qualifies as a 'well-coached team with good guards' and look what happened against them. (Puerto Rico OUGHT to qualify, but as Jerry Sloan will attest, you never know what you're going to get with Carlos Arroyo.)

The US is lucky to be in the bracket they are in. As good as Nowitzki is, Germany does not have the guard play to handle the US pressure, so I don't expect Germany to compete, despite the Diggler.

After that it gets dicey. The semi-final opponent will probably be Greece, and they will play the same style as Italy, but with significantly more talent on the floor. And both Argentina and Spain (one of which should be the finalist from the other bracket) have great guards, great talent, and solid game plans.

Why is it that we are incapable of running a half-court set? I realize that 3 weeks is not a lot of time, but frankly we could play THIS offense (try to run and if it isn't there give the ball to someone for an iso) with zero prep time. Hasn't every one of these players run the Motion offense at SOME point in their lives? How about we put that in?

Standing around watching Carmelo Anthony shoot threes (which he is hitting at a significantly higher rate than he EVER has in his career, so I'm waiting for the shoe to drop), watching Dwyane Wade drive relentlessly (where he picked up about 4 charges a game against stingy zones in Athens), watching the rest of the team spot up (as if we want our Gold Medal hopes hinging on a Shane Battier three)... well, it doesn't make me feel like USA Basketball is on the right track.

It doesn't mean they won't win. Argentina is certainly NOT Jordan to our Ehlo. But I'd feel a lot better if, as Mannix says, someone would set a screen, or even move, away from the ball.

Two of the Best Teams in the World?

2006-08-26T09:53:00.000-07:00

The Round of 16 game between Italy and Lithuania featured what MUST be the worst final 8 seconds of any game ever played (or at least, played by adults - my 10 year old has played a few that were pretty bad.)

The two teams combined to miss 10 of 11 free throws, allowed 3 offensive rebounds, and committed 3 fouls, including a foul against a 3 point shooter with a 3 point lead and less than a second to go!

It went something like this:

Down 2, Italy makes 1 of 2 free throws with 8 seconds on the clock - 1 point game;
Italy fouls, and Lithuania misses BOTH - Lithuania gets the rebound;
Italy fouls, and Lithuania misses BOTH - Lithuania gets the rebound and tips it in - 3 point game;
Lithuania decides to foul, before Italy can attempt a three;
Italy misses BOTH - Italy gets the rebound;
With 0.2 seconds left, Lithuania fouls Basile shooting a desperation 3 - he misses ALL THREE!

Basically, in 8 seconds, the teams combined to do NOTHING right (unless you want to credit the offensive rebounds to great hustle instead of poor boxing out - I'm a 'trapezoidal lane is half-empty' kind of guy, myself.)

Sorry I missed this gem.

Latest Maggette Rumors

2006-08-25T15:41:00.000-07:00

So if you're a Clippers fan, waiting out the long summer months until the team goes to Moscow(Back in the Former U.S.S.R.), what is there to do other than watch Elton play in the Worlds, and discuss rumors about Corey Maggette?

ClipperTalk has been abuzz with a couple of rumors - one having Maggette go to Denver in a complicated 4 team trade that would allow the Warriors to acquire Al Harrington, while the Clippers would get Mike Dunleavy the younger.

The other trade rumor being discussed is Maggette to Denver for J.R. Smith.

As far as I can tell, there are at least three problems with these rumors:
1) They are based on nothing more than idle speculation from sports columnists (which is true of most rumors of course):
2 ) They are the same rumor, but they just got a little garbled;
3) The only truth to them is... that there is no truth to them.

Maybe I'm missing something, but as far as I can tell, the little Dunleavy rumor originated with an August 21 article from the San Francisco Chronicle that included this excerpt:

According to two league sources, the Warriors have revived discussions with three teams on a multiple-player swap, with the principal parts involving Mike Dunleavy Jr. going to the Clippers, Corey Maggette to Denver and Joe Smith to Atlanta, with the Warriors getting Harrington.

The J.R. Smith rumor started with an August 24 article from the Rocky Mountain News (the link is to RealGM, click through to the actual article), that included this excerpt:

Periodic reports suggest they have something bigger in mind - trading Smith, for
example, as part of a deal that nets Corey Maggette, a bona fide scorer. But, as
the Nuggets would say, that's just one of those scurrilous offseason media
reports.

As you can see, the article doesn't say 'Smith for Maggette'; it says they lose Smith and get Maggette in a bigger deal. Guess what? That's Joe Smith, and that's the deal the SF Chronicle discussed earlier in the week. Same deal. Nothing new here. Move along people.

OK, so it's only one rumor, it has nothing to do with J.R. Smith, it's dead since Harrington signed with Indy, and it was most likely only ever a figment Harrington's agent's imagination, trying to make Indy think there were other suitors for Al when there weren't.

Would the Clippers even consider either of these deals? Well ignoring the fact that J.R. Smith for Corey Maggette doesn't come close to working under cap rules, the short answer is 'No', they would not consider it. Dunleavy Sr. probably really likes his son's game, but do you really think he wants to coach his own son on an NBA roster? His own son, who just signed a 5 year extension that SERIOUSLY overpays him? How do you think it would go the first time Cassell got up in Junior's grill for not boxing out?

Funny thing is, although it is my suspicion that the Clippers never had anything to do with this proposed trade, a one-for-one, Maggette-for-Dunleavy Jr trade works fine under the cap. If the Clippers were actually willing to give up Maggette and get back DJ, they still could, if the Warriors are game - and why wouldn't they be? But it ain't happening, thank goodness.

Finally, one wonders how all of this talk is affecting Maggette's mindset. I mean, it's one thing to be offered up for Ron Artest - hell, you can tell the grandkids that you were almost traded for an all-pro (a certifiably insane all-pro, but you leave that part out of the story with the grandkids.) But Mike Dunleavy Jr? Yikes. Let's hope the Clippers management has done the right thing, and called Corey to tell him that it was all a dream.

As I've said before, the guy only lost his starting spot because of injury, and deserves every chance to win the job back. I actually LIKE Ross in the starting lineup (one guy out of five who is there to play D, not looking for his shot.) But why is Maggette necessarily the odd many out? Why not Mobley? At any rate, I think the minutes will be there for Corey, because I think he's exactly the player they need - an athletic wing. Does anyone else in Clipper red fit that description?

He was their leading scorer the last time he was healthy for a season. Their leading scorer - not their second leading scorer. Their leading scorer - better than Brand - two years in a row - people forget this.

Maggette for little Dunleavy. Puh-leeze.

Future NBA Players at the Worlds

2006-08-24T12:04:00.000-07:00

Since I don't have NBA-TV, since my stupid cable company doesn't even offer it (I'm talking to you Charter Communications), I am limited to watching the Team USA games on ESPN, and can't watch the games involving other teams. Of course, for the good of my marriage, which barely survives the admittedly very long NBA season, it's probably a good thing that I'm not watching a lot of basketball in August... but I digress....

In the Team USA games, I've seen a couple of players that appear to have big time NBA potential. Look for these guys in the NBA Draft in the coming years.

Jianlian Yi, China

Wow. You know how NBA scouts rave about young, long international players, and then you see them play and you think, "What did they see in this guy? He can't play." (Think Skita Tskisishnaindfajd, the number 5 pick in 2002, currently out of the league.) Well, I had read a little about Yi, and when I saw him against the US I knew IMMEDIATELY what they saw in this guy. It must be said that he appears to have had his best game of the tournament so far against the US, and his game is far from polished. But I have NEVER seen a quicker jumper at 6'11". That's the thing - when you think 'Asian prospect' you are expecting REALLY big, maybe with some skills (like Yao or even Wang Zhi Zhi), but you're not thinking FREAKISH athlete. This guy is only 18 (turns 19 in October), and if/when the Chinese government lets him enter the draft, he will be a lottery pick. And he'll be a good pro.

Marco Belinelli, Italy

This guy scored 25 against the US, and appears to have all of the tools. He can shoot, he can drive, he is long, he is athletic, and he has a serious scorer's mentality. He was hoisting 3's from everywhere, and he actually made some of them. Nobody on the US team could handle him one-on-one. The Italian players seem for the most part to be content to play in the Italian League, where the money and the competition are very good, and the food is better than in the NBA. Maybe that will change with Bargnani coming to the NBA next season. If Belinelli wants to play in the US, he can be a solid 2. And he's only 20 years old.

Clippers Update from the World Championships

2006-08-24T11:31:00.000-07:00

Elton Brand -

Brand has had a solid tournament thus far. He is Team USA's fourth leading scorer at 10.6 ppg in the opening round, despite playing only 16 minutes per game and despite having exactly zero plays run for him. He is getting all of his points on put backs and finishing the pick and roll. In the Italy game where the US trailed at halftime, Coach K played EB 28 minutes, although the fall Dwight Howard took in the first half might have had something to do with that as well. EB is shooting 60% from the field and he also has blocked 6 shots. His rebounding (2.6) and free throw numbers (68%) need to improve. It is interesting that in the D'Antoni style offense, playing a single big man, EB is leading all the US bigs in minutes, and has emerged as the best big on the best team in the World. Who would have imagined that a couple of years ago?

Sofoklis Schortsianitis -

The Clippers second round pick a few years back, known as 'Baby Shaq' (or as I like to refer to him, My Big Fat Greek Center), Schortsianitis is buried at the end of the Greek bench as the 11th man. In 19 total minutes he has scored 19 points, on 7 for 7 shooting. He is expected to have a big year for Olympiakos, the top team in the Greek League, and should be ready for the NBA very soon.

No other Clippers are playing in the tournament. Rebraca (and Jaric and Radmanovic) turned down / were left off the Serbian team which is going with a youth movement. Ndong turned down an invitation to play for Senegal. Former Clipper Wang Zhi Zhi has played well for China.

Team USA Update

2006-08-23T22:05:00.000-07:00

OK, I know they beat Italy, but is there really any good news from Game 4?

Though I have been underwhelmed by the composition of this team, through the first three games I was becoming a believer that depth and pressure defense (two things that show up every night) would carry this team to a gold medal.

So what happens? They fall behind a good (not great) Italy team, and Coach K forgets about his bench. Anthony plays 35 minutes (all 20 in the second half), Brand 28, Chris Paul 30, etc. The Italian guards handle the pressure, and consequently the US has to be rescued by stellar one-on-one basketball from Anthony and Wade. Depth? Only 3 guys reached double figures and only 6 guys scored. Pressure defense? 8 steals is half of what the team has been averaging, and Italy's guards are not that good.

19 points from Carmelo in the 3rd quarter is great (he is a truly transcendant offensive basketball player) - but this is how Germany wins games. It's not supposed to be how the US wins.

And what is with the 3 point shooting from 'Melo? 5-7? From a guy who shot 24% from 3 on the season? I know the line is shorter, and it may be that extra 3 feet makes that big a difference to him, but I sure don't want to count on him shooting that well the rest of the tournament. In fact, this game could absolutely come back to haunt the team, if 'Melo falls in love with the 3 and settles for quick jump shots. Bear in mind this tournament doesn't really get serious until this weekend when the single elimination phase starts.

I will say this: confidence is important, and the biggest difference I see in this team versus the Athens team is confidence. Larry Brown had every one of those guys afraid of their shadows - he made it clear that he would pull them for missing a single jump shot, and consequently they passed them up when they were open, and missed them when they did take them. Coach K (and Mike D'Antoni) have clearly given this team the green light to put up 3's when they are open, and they look much better, even though on the whole these guys aren't significantly better shooters than the guys who went to Greece.

And yes, you do need to ride the hot hand. So I can understand leaving 'Melo in when he clearly was never going to miss again. But does the US have to have a white hot scorer to win games? Let's hope at least one person steps up every night if that's the case.

The half-court offense has been non-existent. Basically, this team either gets a fast break lay up, or someone goes one-on-one. Why is it that other teams can run effective half cout sets, but we can't? I know these guys don't play together all year, but guess what? Neither do the other national teams. To hear the announcers talk, you'd think the Argentine team is together year round. But it seems like that Ginobili guy has played in the NBA for a few seasons, and his season is as long as anybody's (longer than most).

Low post scoring has also been non-existent. Elton Brand and Dwight Howard have done a good job of following shots and finishing on the pick and roll, but the offense never starts at the post, always at the top. Meanwhile, Bosh and Miller have been buried on the bench, and a team that seemed a little small to me going in, got a lot smaller, with Anthony and Jamison sharing the power forward position. I mean, I like the way the Suns played this year, but they did it because they had to; they didn't have any bigs who didn't suck. Is this really the way we're going to win the Worlds? With Carmelo Anthony at the 4?

Not that it matters, but through 4 games, the US does NOT have the most dominant average margin of victory. The US average of 17.5 pales in comparison to Argentina's 30, and Spain is also better at 22.5. This isn't 1992, and this isn't the Dream Team. The rest of the world has certainly gotten better, but this is pool play, and Argentina and Spain are still managing to destroy pool play opponents.

I am not impressed, and I guarantee you that Argentina, Spain, Greece and Turkey aren't impressed either.

The Final Cut

2006-08-18T10:59:00.000-07:00

As I predicted, the final cut from Team USA was Bruce Bowen. Meaning that a grand total of 3 players were cut from this team, and not one of them was a star. Now, Gilbert Arenas probably WOULD have been the last cut, had he not pulled a groin muscle in practice. Any chance that Gil saw the writing on the wall, and ended up with a pulled muscle to save face?

All of the talk about a 'real' tryout simply hasn't resulted in anything. If the only players you cut from your tryout are guys that no one thought you'd invite in the first place (Luke Ridnour, Adam Morrison and Bowen), then it's just business as usual.

And it sets up a really strange dynamic for 2008. Guys like Kobe, Lamar Odom, Paul Pierce, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups have been told that they are 'part' of the team, and that they will be given an equal chance to win spots on the final Olympics roster in Beijing. But are we going to cut Shane Battier to make room for Kobe Bryant? Is that fair to Battier? Moreover, is Kobe really going to be on a team where the co-captains are LeBron, DWade and 'Melo? The NBA wants those three to own the league - and USA Basketball has already handed them the keys. Kobe wouldn't defer to a 7'2" guy who was 6 years older and 150 pounds heavier than him. You think he's going to play fourth fiddle to these punks?

If this team tanks, fine, you try and get anyone in who can help. But if they play well in Japan, I think you have to keep these 12 together. Spots will open based on injuries and other commitments (just has they took care of all but 3 cuts this year) - but any chemistry and bonding that comes out of this multi-year approach will be squandered if you start replacing guys who want to play in the Olympics with guys who didn't play in the Worlds.